Cal St. Bakersfield

Conference:	ind
Expected RPI:	235.0
Current RPI:	235
Expected SOS:	233
Current SOS:	233
Current Record:	10-16
Expected Record:	10-16
Current Conf Record:	0-0
Expected Conf Record:	0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-7
Current OOC Record:	10-16
Expected OOC Record:	10-16
Expected OOC RPI:	241
Expected OOC SOS:	250

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-16	235.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Bakersfield.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Texas Arlington (119.0)	WAC	H	60-62	L	0%
11-11	California (54.0)	P12	A	78-65	L	0%
11-14	Sacramento St. (283.0)	BSky	A	85-67	L	0%
11-17	Loyola Marymount (211.0)	WCC	H	73-76	L	0%
11-24	Wyoming (75.0)	MWC	A	63-49	L	0%
12-1	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	H	85-52	W	100%
12-6	Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)	BW	A	70-72	W	100%
12-9	South Dakota St. (62.0)	Sum	A	69-63	L	0%
12-17	Portland (231.0)	WCC	A	69-51	L	0%
12-19	Colorado St. (18.0)	MWC	A	78-58	L	0%
12-22	North Florida (230.0)	ASun	N	70-80	L	0%
12-23	Mississippi Valley St. (344.0)	SWAC	N	69-64	W	100%
12-29	Loyola Marymount (211.0)	WCC	A	73-66	L	0%
12-30	North Carolina A&T (213.0)	MEAC	H	60-52	W	100%
1-2	San Diego St. (30.0)	MWC	A	72-57	L	0%
1-5	Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)	MWC	A	84-63	L	0%
1-9	Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)	BW	H	62-74	L	0%
1-19	Nebraska Omaha (285.0)	Sum	H	84-79	W	100%
1-23	Santa Clara (101.0)	WCC	A	66-36	L	0%
2-2	Utah Valley (297.0)	GWC	H	75-62	W	100%
2-6	Wyoming (75.0)	MWC	H	53-61	L	0%
2-12	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	A	52-61	W	100%
2-14	Texas Pan American (306.0)	GWC	A	79-73	L	0%
2-20	South Dakota St. (62.0)	Sum	H	79-78	W	100%
3-6	Seattle (303.0)	WAC	A	74-75	W	100%
3-9	Utah Valley (297.0)	GWC	A	58-73	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Bakersfield's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Cal St. Bakersfield's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Cal St. Bakersfield.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	26.21	26.21	42.11	42.11	-4.14	-4.14
Loyola Marymount	WCC	4.04	4.04	26.67	26.67	-1.88	-1.88
Wyoming	MWC	4.03	4.03	53.57	53.57	0.29	0.29
Texas San Antonio	WAC	4.00	4.00	33.33	33.33	-1.33	-1.33
Utah Valley	GWC	3.98	3.98	38.46	38.46	-0.92	-0.92
South Dakota St.	Sum	3.91	3.91	72.41	72.41	1.75	1.75
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	3.85	3.85	39.29	39.29	-0.82	-0.82
Portland	WCC	2.29	2.29	27.59	27.59	-1.03	-1.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	2.27	2.27	71.88	71.88	0.99	0.99
Colorado St.	MWC	2.27	2.27	73.33	73.33	1.06	1.06
Texas Arlington	WAC	2.24	2.24	58.06	58.06	0.36	0.36
Santa Clara	WCC	2.24	2.24	62.07	62.07	0.54	0.54
Texas Pan American	GWC	2.19	2.19	40.74	40.74	-0.40	-0.40
San Diego St.	MWC	2.17	2.17	65.52	65.52	0.67	0.67
Seattle	WAC	2.10	2.10	25.00	25.00	-1.05	-1.05
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	2.08	2.08	35.71	35.71	-0.59	-0.59
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	1.99	1.99	54.55	54.55	0.18	0.18
North Florida	ASun	1.99	1.99	36.67	36.67	-0.53	-0.53
California	P12	1.95	1.95	63.33	63.33	0.52	0.52
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	1.92	1.92	18.52	18.52	-1.21	-1.21
Sacramento St.	BSky	1.92	1.92	42.31	42.31	-0.30	-0.30
New Mexico	MWC	0.53	0.53	85.29	85.29	0.38	0.38
Nevada	MWC	0.44	0.44	36.67	36.67	-0.12	-0.12
Boise St.	MWC	0.41	0.41	65.52	65.52	0.13	0.13
Denver	WAC	0.41	0.41	70.00	70.00	0.16	0.16
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.39	0.39	31.03	31.03	-0.15	-0.15
Utah St.	WAC	0.38	0.38	66.67	66.67	0.13	0.13
Texas St.	WAC	0.37	0.37	33.33	33.33	-0.12	-0.12
Pepperdine	WCC	0.35	0.35	37.93	37.93	-0.08	-0.08
Fresno St.	MWC	0.34	0.34	32.14	32.14	-0.12	-0.12
Air Force	MWC	0.34	0.34	53.57	53.57	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.34	0.34	44.83	44.83	-0.04	-0.04
Chicago St.	GWC	0.34	0.34	25.00	25.00	-0.17	-0.17
IUPUI	Sum	0.32	0.32	13.33	13.33	-0.24	-0.24
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.32	0.32	70.97	70.97	0.13	0.13
San Jose St.	WAC	0.31	0.31	28.57	28.57	-0.13	-0.13
Brigham Young	WCC	0.31	0.31	64.52	64.52	0.09	0.09
Gonzaga	WCC	0.31	0.31	93.75	93.75	0.27	0.27
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.31	0.31	80.65	80.65	0.19	0.19
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.30	0.30	39.29	39.29	-0.07	-0.07
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.29	0.29	45.16	45.16	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.29	0.29	67.86	67.86	0.10	0.10
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.28	0.28	45.16	45.16	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.28	0.28	43.75	43.75	-0.04	-0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.28	0.28	69.70	69.70	0.11	0.11
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.27	0.27	32.26	32.26	-0.10	-0.10
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.26	0.26	22.58	22.58	-0.14	-0.14
South Dakota	Sum	0.25	0.25	28.57	28.57	-0.11	-0.11
Long Beach St.	BW	0.25	0.25	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.25	0.25	81.25	81.25	0.16	0.16
Idaho	WAC	0.25	0.25	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.23	0.23	48.00	48.00	-0.01	-0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.22	0.22	55.17	55.17	0.02	0.02
Pacific	BW	0.19	0.19	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
Oakland	Sum	0.19	0.19	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.19	0.19	71.43	71.43	0.08	0.08
UC Irvine	BW	0.19	0.19	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.18	0.18	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	17.24	17.24	-0.11	-0.11
North Dakota	BSky	0.17	0.17	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.17	0.17	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.16	0.16	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Montana	BSky	0.16	0.16	79.31	79.31	0.10	0.10
UC Davis	BW	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.16	0.16	23.08	23.08	-0.09	-0.09
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.16	0.16	34.38	34.38	-0.05	-0.05
Stanford	P12	0.16	0.16	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.16	0.16	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.16	0.16	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Oregon	P12	0.15	0.15	76.47	76.47	0.08	0.08
Weber St.	BSky	0.14	0.14	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
Troy	SB	0.14	0.14	36.36	36.36	-0.04	-0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.14	0.14	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Utah	BSky	0.14	0.14	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Southern	SWAC	0.13	0.13	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Washington St.	P12	0.13	0.13	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.13	0.13	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.13	0.13	14.29	14.29	-0.09	-0.09
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.12	0.12	17.86	17.86	-0.08	-0.08
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.12	0.12	20.69	20.69	-0.07	-0.07
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	28.12	28.12	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.09	0.09	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Southern California	P12	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.09	0.09	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Georgia Southern	SC	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.09	0.09	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.09	0.09	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Iowa St.	B12	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.07	0.07	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Chattanooga	SC	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	-0.07	-0.07
New Orleans	ind	0.07	0.07	18.18	18.18	-0.04	-0.04
Tulane	CUSA	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.07	0.07	13.79	13.79	-0.05	-0.05
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.00	10.00	-0.05	-0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.04	0.04	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Christian	B12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.02	0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.02	-0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01