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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Cal St. Bakersfield

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:301.0
Current RPI:301
Expected SOS:319
Current SOS:319
Current Record:11-19
Expected Record:11-19
Current Conf Record:8-8
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-10
Current OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC RPI:304
Expected OOC SOS:244



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-19301.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Bakersfield.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14High Point (89.0)BSthN99-100L0%0.0
11-15Hawaii (152.0)BWA72-65L0%0.0
11-17Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACN56-49L0%0.0
11-20San Diego St. (26.0)MWCA51-27L0%0.0
11-23Delaware (253.0)CAAH70-52W100%0.0
11-30South Dakota (213.0)SumH66-68L0%0.0
12-2UC Riverside (234.0)BWH58-59L0%0.0
12-6Fresno St. (182.0)MWCH61-63L0%0.0
12-13Portland St. (225.0)BSkyA65-59L0%0.0
12-18Utah St. (143.0)MWCA57-56L0%0.0
12-19South Dakota St. (90.0)SumN49-53L0%0.0
12-20Idaho St. (343.0)BSkyN50-59W100%0.0
12-28California (95.0)P12A52-55W100%0.0
1-3North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACA83-70L0%0.0
1-10Grand Canyon (274.0)WACA73-65L0%0.0
1-15New Mexico St. (103.0)WACH54-70L0%0.0
1-17Texas Pan American (334.0)WACH66-53W100%0.0
1-22UMKC (295.0)WACA66-63L0%0.0
1-24Chicago St. (333.0)WACA41-57W100%0.0
1-31Seattle (280.0)WACH71-61W100%0.0
2-5Utah Valley (308.0)WACH72-69W100%0.0
2-7Grand Canyon (274.0)WACH76-78L0%0.0
2-12Texas Pan American (334.0)WACA54-66W100%0.0
2-14New Mexico St. (103.0)WACA74-58L0%0.0
2-19Chicago St. (333.0)WACH64-51W100%0.0
2-21UMKC (295.0)WACH64-62W100%0.0
2-28Seattle (280.0)WACA53-43L0%0.0
3-7Utah Valley (308.0)WACA74-69L0%0.0
3-12Utah Valley (308.0)WACN55-40W100%0.0
3-13New Mexico St. (103.0)WACN57-53L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Bakersfield's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal St. Bakersfield's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal St. Bakersfield.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC26.4726.4736.5736.57-7.11-7.11
Utah ValleyWAC5.855.8532.0032.00-2.10-2.10
New Mexico St.WAC5.815.8164.2964.291.661.66
SeattleWAC4.324.3248.1548.15-0.16-0.16
UMKCWAC4.284.2837.9337.93-1.03-1.03
Grand CanyonWAC4.194.1948.1548.15-0.16-0.16
Chicago St.WAC4.194.1918.5218.52-2.64-2.64
Texas Pan AmericanWAC4.184.1826.9226.92-1.93-1.93
Idaho St.BSky1.991.9918.5218.52-1.25-1.25
Utah St.MWC1.891.8955.1755.170.200.20
South Dakota St.Sum1.861.8666.6766.670.620.62
South DakotaSum1.841.8446.6746.67-0.12-0.12
UC RiversideBW1.831.8339.2939.29-0.39-0.39
Fresno St.MWC1.801.8041.3841.38-0.31-0.31
HawaiiBW1.781.7859.3859.380.330.33
San Diego St.MWC1.781.7875.0075.000.890.89
Portland St.BSky1.731.7346.1546.15-0.13-0.13
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.721.7235.4835.48-0.50-0.50
High PointBSth1.721.7266.6766.670.570.57
CaliforniaP121.691.6956.2556.250.210.21
DelawareCAA1.671.6734.4834.48-0.52-0.52
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.671.6720.6920.69-0.98-0.98
New MexicoMWC0.410.4148.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.390.3962.0762.070.090.09
Nebraska OmahaSum0.340.3439.2939.29-0.07-0.07
WyomingMWC0.320.3271.8871.880.140.14
UC DavisBW0.310.3179.3179.310.180.18
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.290.2974.1974.190.140.14
UC IrvineBW0.270.2761.2961.290.060.06
Colorado St.MWC0.270.2781.2581.250.170.17
Montana St.BSky0.260.2620.6920.69-0.15-0.15
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.250.2522.5822.58-0.14-0.14
Southern UtahBSky0.240.2432.1432.14-0.08-0.08
Weber St.BSky0.210.2139.2939.29-0.04-0.04
MontanaBSky0.200.2060.0060.000.040.04
San Jose St.MWC0.190.190.000.00-0.19-0.19
Florida A&MMEAC0.190.196.906.90-0.17-0.17
ArizonaP120.190.1991.1891.180.160.16
Cal PolyBW0.190.1940.7440.74-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
NevadaMWC0.190.1924.1424.14-0.10-0.10
UNLVMWC0.190.1953.1253.120.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.180.1821.4321.43-0.10-0.10
IdahoBSky0.180.1839.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.170.1746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.170.1774.1974.190.080.08
Cal St. FullertonBW0.170.1724.1424.14-0.09-0.09
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
UTEPCUSA0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
Air ForceMWC0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
CreightonBE0.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
IPFWSum0.130.1348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1323.0823.08-0.07-0.07
WashingtonP120.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1364.7164.710.040.04
StanfordP120.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
UTSACUSA0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1162.9662.960.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.110.1158.3358.330.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
USCP120.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
IUPUISum0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.110.1187.1087.100.080.08
Washington St.P120.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0938.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
RadfordBSth0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0972.4172.410.040.04
HoustonAmer0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0871.4371.430.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
StetsonASun0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0818.7518.75-0.05-0.05
UCLAP120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
BYUWCC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
DuquesneA100.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0642.3142.31-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Ohio St.B100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
PacificWCC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
DePaulBE0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Green BayHorz0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
HarvardIvy0.060.0674.0774.070.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
KentuckySEC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
MinnesotaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Notre DameACC0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
OaklandHorz0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0627.2727.27-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0675.8675.860.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TempleAmer0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
WoffordSC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TexasB120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02