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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Cal St. Bakersfield

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:142.9
Current RPI:163
Expected SOS:308
Current SOS:334
Current Record:14-7
Expected Record:18-8
Current Conf Record:7-2
Expected Conf Record:11-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-1
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:157
Expected OOC SOS:284



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-7116.112.96%
18-8134.643.25%
17-9154.634.68%
16-10173.48.19%
15-11192.30.88%
14-12211.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Bakersfield.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Idaho (219.4)BSkyH68-45W100%0.0
11-25Wyoming (179.7)MWCA68-64L0%0.0
11-29Saint Mary's (39.2)WCCA94-59L0%0.0
12-2Idaho (219.4)BSkyA67-63L0%0.0
12-5Northern Arizona (322.5)BSkyH72-55W100%0.0
12-12South Dakota (191.9)SumA67-77W100%0.0
12-14Dartmouth (290.9)IvyH69-62W100%0.0
12-16Fresno St. (123.9)MWCA76-68L0%0.0
12-22Portland St. (281.7)BSkyH78-66W100%0.0
12-28Arizona St. (78.4)P12A75-59L0%0.0
12-31Morgan St. (332.1)MEACH80-68W100%0.0
1-2UC Riverside (263.9)BWA48-67W100%0.0
1-9UMKC (273.9)WACA72-83W100%0.0
1-11Chicago St. (344.1)WACA56-67W100%0.0
1-16Seattle (269.2)WACA52-79W100%0.0
1-21UT Rio Grande Valley (340.4)WACH77-58W100%0.0
1-23New Mexico St. (120.1)WACH67-68L0%0.0
1-28Grand Canyon (101.3)WACA70-64L0%0.0
1-30Utah Valley (257.7)WACA74-78W100%0.0
2-4UMKC (273.9)WACH77-66W100%0.0
2-6Chicago St. (344.1)WACH71-48W100%0.0
2-13Utah Valley (257.7)WACH0-089%13.6
2-18New Mexico St. (120.1)WACA0-031%-5.5
2-20UT Rio Grande Valley (340.4)WACA0-090%14.1
2-27Grand Canyon (101.3)WACH0-061%3.0
3-5Seattle (269.2)WACH0-089%13.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Bakersfield's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal St. Bakersfield's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal St. Bakersfield.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC26.4826.4872.5372.0811.9311.69
Grand CanyonWAC2.994.7581.8282.011.903.04
New Mexico St.WAC2.984.7563.6467.360.811.65
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.994.7415.0016.34-2.09-3.19
Utah ValleyWAC2.984.7435.0037.42-0.89-1.19
UMKCWAC5.254.7431.5835.46-1.93-1.38
Chicago St.WAC5.214.714.768.31-4.71-3.93
SeattleWAC3.034.7050.0048.300.00-0.16
IdahoBSky4.943.9955.0055.320.490.42
Portland St.BSky2.602.2333.3339.15-0.87-0.48
Northern ArizonaBSky2.602.0910.5313.65-2.05-1.52
WyomingMWC2.492.0640.9140.44-0.45-0.39
Saint Mary'sWCC2.442.0085.0084.821.711.39
South DakotaSum2.492.0043.4842.70-0.33-0.29
Fresno St.MWC2.431.9960.0058.090.490.32
UC RiversideBW2.441.9647.8343.09-0.11-0.27
Morgan St.MEAC2.431.9620.0026.85-1.46-0.91
Arizona St.P122.381.9252.1750.080.100.00
DartmouthIvy2.381.9233.3332.97-0.79-0.66
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.450.4652.3854.080.020.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.390.3842.1145.67-0.06-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.240.3645.0046.13-0.02-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.390.3515.0015.34-0.27-0.24
Montana St.BSky0.450.3540.9143.71-0.08-0.04
UC DavisBW0.380.3140.0036.76-0.08-0.08
Weber St.BSky0.180.2865.0069.240.050.11
San Jose St.MWC0.330.2725.0022.73-0.17-0.15
Utah St.MWC0.170.2547.6249.40-0.01-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.320.2456.5256.320.040.03
New MexicoMWC0.210.2458.3360.730.040.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.220.2428.5726.98-0.09-0.11
UNLVMWC0.310.2350.0055.190.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.220.2279.1776.070.130.11
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.160.2120.0022.32-0.10-0.12
UTEPCUSA0.160.2152.1751.920.010.01
MontanaBSky0.290.2157.8962.320.050.05
DenverSum0.210.2154.1751.790.020.01
CaliforniaP120.210.2065.2262.830.070.05
North DakotaBSky0.170.2047.3749.93-0.01-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.210.2045.4538.44-0.02-0.05
San Diego St.MWC0.160.2072.7372.110.070.09
Washington St.P120.330.2036.3631.98-0.09-0.07
HoustonAmer0.160.1869.5766.580.060.06
MinnesotaB100.270.1826.0927.79-0.13-0.08
Cal St. FullertonBW0.220.1735.0032.27-0.07-0.06
HamptonMEAC0.170.1759.0961.320.030.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.1742.8650.39-0.020.00
UC IrvineBW0.160.1772.7371.650.070.07
NevadaMWC0.220.1755.0054.530.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.210.179.0912.24-0.18-0.13
Northern IllinoisMAC0.260.1760.0057.610.050.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.270.1728.5728.55-0.11-0.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.170.1547.8350.19-0.010.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.170.1576.1973.420.090.07
BYUWCC0.170.1566.6769.490.060.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.1463.6462.150.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.160.1477.2776.870.090.08
LamarSlnd0.160.1430.0029.27-0.07-0.06
San FranciscoWCC0.160.1454.5550.110.010.00
WashingtonP120.160.1465.2261.100.050.03
Boise St.MWC0.170.1463.6462.590.050.03
Oral RobertsSum0.150.1339.1341.10-0.03-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.150.1327.7829.16-0.07-0.06
StanfordP120.170.1350.0046.540.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.160.1330.0034.55-0.07-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.100.1345.4551.34-0.010.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.150.1350.0049.790.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.170.1379.1778.350.100.07
USCP120.160.1378.2673.050.090.06
GonzagaWCC0.120.1178.2676.810.070.06
PortlandWCC0.120.1140.0038.51-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.170.1025.0028.89-0.09-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.110.1056.5257.280.010.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.1043.4850.65-0.010.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1017.3920.65-0.07-0.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1039.1338.57-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.1030.4331.20-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1031.8236.14-0.04-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.170.1090.4886.910.140.08
IllinoisB100.150.1045.8344.13-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.100.1050.0051.210.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.100.1061.9065.300.020.03
MarquetteBE0.150.1062.5056.050.040.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.1052.3850.420.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0724.0025.67-0.03-0.04
DrakeMVC0.110.0720.8323.21-0.07-0.04
IowaB100.110.0782.6180.550.070.05
Miami FLACC0.060.0782.6177.520.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.0743.4843.78-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0765.2267.130.020.03
Oklahoma St.B120.110.0745.8342.26-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0713.6415.77-0.04-0.05
Texas St.SB0.060.0736.8437.57-0.01-0.02
UABCUSA0.060.0782.6179.370.040.04
USC UpstateASun0.110.0722.7323.24-0.06-0.04
UTSACUSA0.060.0713.6413.63-0.04-0.05
BrownIvy0.000.0731.5831.07-0.00-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0766.6765.220.020.02
CornellIvy0.060.0742.1140.21-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.130.0735.0038.50-0.04-0.02
PennIvy0.060.0738.8937.63-0.01-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.060.0772.2274.700.030.04
San DiegoWCC0.110.0731.8229.12-0.04-0.03
YaleIvy0.000.0773.6874.680.000.04
ManhattanMAAC0.110.0742.8642.05-0.02-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.0728.5733.36-0.04-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0740.0040.31-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.100.0760.8757.190.020.01
BaylorB120.050.0772.7366.400.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0747.6249.35-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.100.0733.3334.01-0.03-0.02
Green BayHorz0.100.0754.5556.020.010.01
Iowa St.B120.100.0773.9170.050.050.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.0725.0024.33-0.05-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0729.1733.74-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.100.0764.0062.060.030.02
OaklandHorz0.100.0768.0067.980.040.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0728.0030.73-0.02-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0768.1866.650.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.100.0781.8283.040.070.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0714.2920.67-0.04-0.04
IPFWSum0.100.0770.8368.550.040.02
IUPUISum0.050.0740.0039.81-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.110.0733.3333.04-0.04-0.02
SamfordSC0.110.0741.6742.60-0.02-0.01
TroySB0.110.0723.8126.71-0.06-0.03
RiceCUSA0.110.0728.5729.66-0.05-0.03
OregonP120.110.0682.6179.220.070.04
HawaiiBW0.050.0684.2181.660.030.04
UCLAP120.050.0656.5253.270.010.00
BryantNEC0.060.0425.0026.39-0.03-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0444.0045.31-0.01-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0454.1754.140.010.00
HartfordAE0.060.0425.0026.75-0.03-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0447.8348.87-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.060.0422.7324.97-0.03-0.02
MaineAE0.060.0433.3333.13-0.02-0.01
MaristMAAC0.060.0421.7424.19-0.04-0.02
New HampshireAE0.060.0457.1453.990.010.00
Seton HallBE0.060.0473.9169.970.030.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0465.2261.470.020.01
VermontAE0.060.0452.0054.860.000.00
CampbellBSth0.060.0328.5729.65-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0372.0071.540.020.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0325.0025.08-0.03-0.02
High PointBSth0.060.0355.0057.460.010.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0336.3638.92-0.02-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0329.1733.12-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0325.0033.22-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0356.5262.790.010.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0340.0042.11-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0338.1037.68-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0352.1754.170.000.00
TowsonCAA0.060.0365.2259.770.020.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0383.3378.470.040.02
WagnerNEC0.060.0363.6465.020.020.01
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0375.0076.250.030.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0347.6252.05-0.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0352.1751.910.000.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0360.8758.300.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0359.0959.630.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0356.5257.010.010.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0335.0034.80-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0363.6461.420.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0366.6766.540.020.01
ColoradoP120.000.0369.5765.330.000.01
CreightonBE0.050.0364.0062.090.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0321.7423.40-0.03-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0375.0072.610.020.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0361.9056.430.010.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0372.2275.580.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0378.2677.860.030.02
UtahP120.000.0369.5767.500.000.01