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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Cal St. Bakersfield

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:279.0
Current RPI:279
Expected SOS:306
Current SOS:306
Current Record:12-19
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:6-12
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-10
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:258
Expected OOC SOS:332



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-19279.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Bakersfield.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Washington St. (224.0)P12A62-56L0%0.0
11-13Sacramento St. (263.0)BSkyH74-66W100%0.0
11-18Nevada (137.0)MWCH74-66W100%0.0
11-23Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyH71-69W100%0.0
11-29Northern Arizona (247.0)BSkyN50-61W100%0.0
11-30Fresno St. (117.0)MWCA96-86L0%0.0
12-1Drake (174.0)MVCN57-65L0%0.0
12-5Santa Clara (210.0)WCCH42-60L0%0.0
12-10Nebraska Omaha (219.0)SumA93-88L0%0.0
12-15USC (176.0)P12A63-59L0%0.0
12-18UTSA (306.0)CUSAA64-90W100%0.0
12-21UT Arlington (199.0)SBA79-75L0%0.0
12-28Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyA57-61W100%0.0
1-4Utah Valley (144.0)WACH74-82L0%0.0
1-9Grand Canyon (203.0)WACH63-66L0%0.0
1-16Seattle (267.0)WACA57-61W100%0.0
1-18Idaho (238.0)WACA64-61L0%0.0
1-23Chicago St. (259.0)WACH63-71L0%0.0
1-25UMKC (248.0)WACH69-70L0%0.0
1-30New Mexico St. (72.0)WACA89-86L0%0.0
2-1Texas Pan American (312.0)WACA64-72W100%0.0
2-8Grand Canyon (203.0)WACA79-70L0%0.0
2-13Idaho (238.0)WACH76-67W100%0.0
2-15Seattle (267.0)WACH83-65W100%0.0
2-20UMKC (248.0)WACA69-74W100%0.0
2-22Chicago St. (259.0)WACA73-68L0%0.0
2-27Texas Pan American (312.0)WACH61-63L0%0.0
3-1New Mexico St. (72.0)WACH57-72L0%0.0
3-7Utah Valley (144.0)WACA64-55L0%0.0
3-13Chicago St. (259.0)WACN62-68W100%0.0
3-14New Mexico St. (72.0)WACN69-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Bakersfield's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal St. Bakersfield's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal St. Bakersfield.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC26.5426.5440.2740.27-5.16-5.16
New Mexico St.WAC5.805.8070.9770.972.432.43
Chicago St.WAC5.645.6433.3333.33-1.88-1.88
IdahoWAC4.364.3645.1645.16-0.42-0.42
Texas Pan AmericanWAC4.204.2024.1424.14-2.17-2.17
Utah ValleyWAC4.184.1859.2659.260.770.77
SeattleWAC4.184.1842.3142.31-0.64-0.64
UMKCWAC4.164.1633.3333.33-1.39-1.39
Grand CanyonWAC4.094.0941.6741.67-0.68-0.68
Idaho St.BSky3.383.3836.0036.00-0.95-0.95
Northern ArizonaBSky1.961.9646.6746.67-0.13-0.13
Sacramento St.BSky1.781.7844.4444.44-0.20-0.20
Nebraska OmahaSum1.781.7846.1546.15-0.14-0.14
DrakeMVC1.771.7744.8344.83-0.18-0.18
UTSACUSA1.741.7423.0823.08-0.94-0.94
Fresno St.MWC1.721.7246.6746.67-0.11-0.11
NevadaMWC1.691.6948.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Washington St.P121.691.6927.5927.59-0.76-0.76
USCP121.671.6730.0030.00-0.67-0.67
Santa ClaraWCC1.611.6136.6736.67-0.43-0.43
UT ArlingtonSB1.611.6141.3841.38-0.28-0.28
MontanaBSky0.330.3353.5753.570.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.330.3355.1755.170.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.310.3181.8281.820.200.20
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.290.2944.8344.83-0.03-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.280.2860.7160.710.060.06
Portland St.BSky0.280.2851.7251.720.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.260.2659.3859.380.050.05
North DakotaBSky0.260.2648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.260.2667.7467.740.090.09
UtahP120.250.2563.3363.330.070.07
Montana St.BSky0.230.2341.3841.38-0.04-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.230.233.573.57-0.21-0.21
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.210.2145.4545.45-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.200.2053.1253.120.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.200.2035.4835.48-0.06-0.06
BradleyMVC0.190.1937.5037.50-0.05-0.05
GonzagaWCC0.180.1881.8281.820.110.11
Tennessee TechOVC0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
UC DavisBW0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
UNLVMWC0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
CaliforniaP120.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
ArizonaP120.150.1588.2488.240.110.11
Colorado St.MWC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.140.1410.3410.34-0.11-0.11
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1478.5778.570.080.08
LamarSlnd0.140.1410.7110.71-0.11-0.11
Loyola MarymountWCC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
CreightonBE0.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
PepperdineWCC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1340.6240.62-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
StanfordP120.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
ColoradoP120.130.1367.6567.650.050.05
PacificWCC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.130.1335.7135.71-0.04-0.04
San Jose St.MWC0.130.1317.2417.24-0.08-0.08
HawaiiBW0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
South DakotaSum0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
IPFWSum0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Oregon St.P120.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
WyomingMWC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
PortlandWCC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
TulsaCUSA0.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
HoustonAmer0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
DePaulBE0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
IllinoisB100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
IndianaB100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0834.6234.62-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
TCUB120.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
Cal PolyBW0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
IowaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
RiceCUSA0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Texas TechB120.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
LouisvilleAmer0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00