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Through games of Feb 28, 2015.


Cal St. Bakersfield

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:298.2
Current RPI:300
Expected SOS:315
Current SOS:313
Current Record:10-17
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:7-6
Expected Conf Record:8-6
Probability of Auto Bid:7.46%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-10
Current OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC RPI:303
Expected OOC SOS:241



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-17292.859.66%
10-18306.240.34%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Bakersfield.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14High Point (84.2)BSthN99-100L0%0.0
11-15Hawaii (163.2)BWA72-65L0%0.0
11-17Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.9)SWACN56-49L0%0.0
11-20San Diego St. (27.1)MWCA51-27L0%0.0
11-23Delaware (254.9)CAAH70-52W100%0.0
11-30South Dakota (215.6)SumH66-68L0%0.0
12-2UC Riverside (219.2)BWH58-59L0%0.0
12-6Fresno St. (189.0)MWCH61-63L0%0.0
12-13Portland St. (227.0)BSkyA65-59L0%0.0
12-18Utah St. (118.9)MWCA57-56L0%0.0
12-19South Dakota St. (87.5)SumN49-53L0%0.0
12-20Idaho St. (343.9)BSkyN50-59W100%0.0
12-28California (106.2)P12A52-55W100%0.0
1-3North Carolina A&T (338.6)MEACA83-70L0%0.0
1-10Grand Canyon (278.9)WACA73-65L0%0.0
1-15New Mexico St. (116.0)WACH54-70L0%0.0
1-17Texas Pan American (333.7)WACH66-53W100%0.0
1-22UMKC (281.6)WACA66-63L0%0.0
1-24Chicago St. (331.6)WACA41-57W100%0.0
1-31Seattle (288.9)WACH71-61W100%0.0
2-5Utah Valley (307.1)WACH72-69W100%0.0
2-7Grand Canyon (278.9)WACH76-78L0%0.0
2-12Texas Pan American (333.7)WACA54-66W100%0.0
2-14New Mexico St. (116.0)WACA74-58L0%0.0
2-19Chicago St. (331.6)WACH64-51W100%0.0
2-21UMKC (281.6)WACH64-62W100%0.0
2-28Seattle (288.9)WACA53-43L0%0.0
3-7Utah Valley (307.1)WACA0-060%2.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Bakersfield's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal St. Bakersfield's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal St. Bakersfield.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC26.3426.3436.3638.13-7.18-6.26
Utah ValleyWAC2.824.4732.0032.00-1.02-1.61
Grand CanyonWAC4.474.4246.1546.65-0.34-0.30
UMKCWAC4.444.3938.4639.34-1.02-0.94
Chicago St.WAC4.404.3520.0019.29-2.64-2.67
SeattleWAC4.404.3447.8347.52-0.19-0.22
New Mexico St.WAC4.334.2860.0061.480.870.98
Texas Pan AmericanWAC4.334.2826.0926.57-2.07-2.00
Idaho St.BSky2.102.0816.0016.98-1.42-1.37
Utah St.MWC2.062.0161.5460.270.470.41
South Dakota St.Sum2.051.9766.6766.670.680.66
UC RiversideBW2.061.9744.0042.67-0.25-0.29
Fresno St.MWC2.021.9442.3141.80-0.31-0.32
South DakotaSum1.951.9246.4346.43-0.14-0.14
HawaiiBW1.991.9159.2659.490.370.36
San Diego St.MWC1.991.9174.0774.510.960.94
Portland St.BSky1.921.8547.8346.98-0.08-0.11
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.921.8531.0332.41-0.73-0.65
High PointBSth1.921.8469.2369.230.740.71
CaliforniaP121.891.8259.2655.900.350.21
DelawareCAA1.851.7935.7135.71-0.53-0.51
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.851.7919.2319.91-1.14-1.07
New MexicoMWC0.440.4048.2848.79-0.02-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.410.3937.0437.67-0.11-0.10
Sacramento St.BSky0.290.3368.0066.540.110.11
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.260.3069.2369.500.100.12
UC DavisBW0.250.2980.0079.410.150.17
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.320.2924.1423.76-0.16-0.15
WyomingMWC0.270.2870.3768.780.110.10
Montana St.BSky0.240.2621.4321.47-0.14-0.15
Southern UtahBSky0.180.2330.7731.72-0.07-0.08
MontanaBSky0.250.2357.6958.420.040.04
San Jose St.MWC0.240.220.000.17-0.24-0.22
UC IrvineBW0.240.2257.6958.360.040.04
Colorado St.MWC0.200.2282.1481.280.130.13
Cal PolyBW0.240.2144.0043.24-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.200.2126.9225.67-0.09-0.10
North DakotaBSky0.220.2023.0823.78-0.12-0.11
IdahoBSky0.180.2044.0044.87-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.180.2040.0040.16-0.04-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.180.1925.9325.35-0.09-0.09
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.180.1953.8554.380.010.02
UtahP120.210.1977.7878.800.120.11
Oral RobertsSum0.200.1953.5753.570.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.200.193.574.56-0.19-0.17
Boise St.MWC0.170.1874.0775.590.080.09
UNLVMWC0.170.1853.5754.430.010.02
Air ForceMWC0.170.1842.3142.09-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.180.1646.1547.39-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.170.1644.8343.41-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.140.1653.5754.680.010.02
DenverSum0.170.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.170.1653.5752.330.010.01
ArizonaP120.100.1589.6689.910.080.12
Long Beach St.BW0.130.1542.8645.00-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.160.1566.6764.430.050.04
UTSACUSA0.150.1444.0045.84-0.02-0.01
Saint LouisA100.140.1335.7134.56-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.140.1367.8669.210.050.05
IPFWSum0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1324.0024.00-0.07-0.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.140.1263.6464.210.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1229.6331.52-0.04-0.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.130.1261.9061.010.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.130.1262.9662.960.030.03
USCP120.140.1237.9337.13-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.100.1253.5754.210.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.130.1224.0023.52-0.07-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1257.1459.480.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.110.1064.2962.970.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1075.0074.360.050.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.100.1064.2964.290.030.03
HoustonAmer0.100.1033.3335.15-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.100.0961.2961.290.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.100.0959.2659.260.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.100.0989.6689.660.080.07
BuffaloMAC0.100.0967.8668.870.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.0940.7442.15-0.02-0.01
BYUWCC0.100.0972.4172.410.050.04
UCLAP120.100.0958.6260.520.020.02
Washington St.P120.100.0944.4441.77-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.100.0975.0073.770.050.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0917.2420.20-0.04-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0940.7442.95-0.02-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.090.0944.4443.54-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0815.3814.81-0.07-0.06
DuquesneA100.070.0734.6233.89-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.070.0745.8344.52-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0757.1456.730.010.01
Texas St.SB0.070.0741.6741.70-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.040.0779.3178.080.020.04
CampbellBSth0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0761.5461.540.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0765.3865.380.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0751.8551.850.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0742.3142.31-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.070.0753.8553.850.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0614.8114.81-0.05-0.04
Ohio St.B100.070.0671.4371.540.030.03
BaylorB120.070.0675.0074.800.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0673.0871.340.030.03
DePaulBE0.070.0640.0039.60-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.070.0667.8668.240.020.02
Green BayHorz0.070.0675.0075.000.030.03
Notre DameACC0.070.0682.7681.280.040.04
OaklandHorz0.070.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0671.4371.430.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.070.0622.2222.22-0.04-0.04
ToledoMAC0.070.0665.5264.240.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0661.5458.970.020.01
OregonP120.070.0671.4369.270.030.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0624.1423.71-0.04-0.03
PacificWCC0.070.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0642.8642.04-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0655.1755.170.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.070.0675.0075.280.030.03
HofstraCAA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.070.0665.5264.550.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.070.0671.4370.550.030.03
Kansas St.B120.070.0650.0048.830.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.070.06100.0099.550.070.06
Miami OHMAC0.070.0639.2939.43-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0625.0026.34-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0676.0077.440.020.03
NortheasternCAA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
SamfordSC0.070.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0626.9227.67-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0655.5655.060.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0640.7440.47-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.070.0620.6920.37-0.04-0.04
PittsburghACC0.070.0664.2963.040.020.02
Texas TechB120.070.0643.3342.04-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.070.0644.4445.04-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0629.1730.80-0.03-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.060.001.27-0.06-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0635.7138.37-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.040.0350.0050.000.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0357.1455.080.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.030.0358.6259.650.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0333.3334.10-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.040.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0342.3142.97-0.01-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.0090.000.030.03
ArmyPat0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0344.8346.85-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0322.2222.90-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0324.1424.66-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0344.4444.03-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0346.1546.10-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.6757.700.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0339.2939.33-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0359.2659.110.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0378.5779.250.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0348.1548.34-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0328.5728.64-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0355.5656.780.000.00
TempleAmer0.030.0368.9768.660.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0393.1092.700.030.03
WoffordSC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.030.0323.0824.73-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.9768.270.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0346.4345.01-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0359.2658.430.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0346.1547.63-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0362.0759.850.010.01
TexasB120.030.0358.6259.330.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0389.2987.440.030.02
AkronMAC0.030.0360.7160.050.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0367.8665.870.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0333.3333.19-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02