Cal St. Bakersfield

Conference:	ind
Expected RPI:	213.0
Current RPI:	213
Expected SOS:	282
Current SOS:	282
Current Record:	13-14
Expected Record:	13-14
Current Conf Record:	0-0
Expected Conf Record:	0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-6
Current OOC Record:	13-14
Expected OOC Record:	13-14
Expected OOC RPI:	220
Expected OOC SOS:	283

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-14	213.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Bakersfield.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Oregon St. (135.0)	P12	A	86-62	L	0%
11-16	Cal Poly (219.0)	BW	A	58-60	W	100%
11-19	Pepperdine (271.0)	WCC	H	79-70	W	100%
11-26	Cal St. Fullerton (157.0)	BW	A	66-73	W	100%
11-30	Cal St. Northridge (323.0)	BW	A	67-74	W	100%
12-3	Montana St. (275.0)	BSky	A	71-67	L	0%
12-7	Sacramento St. (315.0)	BSky	H	63-60	W	100%
12-10	Northern Arizona (337.0)	BSky	A	80-67	L	0%
12-15	Portland St. (187.0)	BSky	A	91-87	L	0%
12-17	Idaho (146.0)	WAC	A	72-44	L	0%
12-19	Colorado (62.0)	P12	A	70-64	L	0%
12-22	Pacific (288.0)	BW	H	83-53	W	100%
12-27	Texas Tech (241.0)	B12	A	74-58	L	0%
1-2	New Mexico St. (59.0)	WAC	H	72-73	L	0%
1-5	Nevada Las Vegas (21.0)	MWC	H	57-89	L	0%
1-7	Texas Pan American (314.0)	GWC	H	72-57	W	100%
1-10	NJ Inst of Technology (304.0)	GWC	H	71-70	W	100%
1-14	Cal St. Fullerton (157.0)	BW	H	67-65	W	100%
1-17	Pacific (288.0)	BW	A	73-76	W	100%
1-23	San Jose St. (279.0)	WAC	A	78-70	L	0%
1-28	Cal St. Northridge (323.0)	BW	H	68-76	L	0%
2-1	New Mexico St. (59.0)	WAC	A	78-57	L	0%
2-4	Cal Poly (219.0)	BW	H	69-66	W	100%
2-8	Texas Pan American (314.0)	GWC	A	73-67	L	0%
2-14	Nevada (65.0)	WAC	A	61-47	L	0%
2-18	San Diego (192.0)	WCC	H	72-63	W	100%
2-22	NJ Inst of Technology (304.0)	GWC	A	70-72	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Bakersfield's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Cal St. Bakersfield's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Cal St. Bakersfield.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	26.31	26.31	52.21	52.21	1.16	1.16
Cal Poly	BW	4.24	4.24	55.17	55.17	0.44	0.44
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	4.16	4.16	73.08	73.08	1.92	1.92
Pacific	BW	4.13	4.13	34.62	34.62	-1.27	-1.27
Cal St. Northridge	BW	4.12	4.12	16.67	16.67	-2.75	-2.75
New Mexico St.	WAC	3.89	3.89	70.97	70.97	1.63	1.63
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	3.84	3.84	42.31	42.31	-0.59	-0.59
Texas Pan American	GWC	3.84	3.84	23.08	23.08	-2.07	-2.07
San Jose St.	WAC	2.31	2.31	24.14	24.14	-1.19	-1.19
Montana St.	BSky	2.25	2.25	34.62	34.62	-0.69	-0.69
Portland St.	BSky	2.22	2.22	48.28	48.28	-0.08	-0.08
Nevada	WAC	2.22	2.22	79.31	79.31	1.30	1.30
Idaho	WAC	2.18	2.18	53.57	53.57	0.16	0.16
Sacramento St.	BSky	2.14	2.14	32.00	32.00	-0.77	-0.77
Pepperdine	WCC	2.09	2.09	33.33	33.33	-0.70	-0.70
Northern Arizona	BSky	2.09	2.09	7.69	7.69	-1.77	-1.77
Oregon St.	P12	1.97	1.97	54.84	54.84	0.19	0.19
San Diego	WCC	1.95	1.95	39.29	39.29	-0.42	-0.42
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	1.94	1.94	74.19	74.19	0.94	0.94
Colorado	P12	1.91	1.91	64.52	64.52	0.55	0.55
Texas Tech	B12	1.85	1.85	23.33	23.33	-0.99	-0.99
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.71	0.71	64.29	64.29	0.20	0.20
UC Riverside	BW	0.68	0.68	41.38	41.38	-0.12	-0.12
UC Davis	BW	0.66	0.66	13.33	13.33	-0.48	-0.48
UC Irvine	BW	0.66	0.66	34.48	34.48	-0.20	-0.20
Hawaii	WAC	0.65	0.65	46.67	46.67	-0.04	-0.04
Fresno St.	WAC	0.58	0.58	35.48	35.48	-0.17	-0.17
Long Beach St.	BW	0.56	0.56	74.19	74.19	0.27	0.27
North Dakota	GWC	0.43	0.43	48.15	48.15	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.42	0.42	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.40	0.40	25.93	25.93	-0.19	-0.19
Montana	BSky	0.39	0.39	79.31	79.31	0.23	0.23
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.39	0.39	30.77	30.77	-0.15	-0.15
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.37	0.37	43.33	43.33	-0.05	-0.05
Utah St.	WAC	0.37	0.37	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.36	0.36	57.14	57.14	0.05	0.05
Idaho St.	BSky	0.34	0.34	27.59	27.59	-0.15	-0.15
Weber St.	BSky	0.33	0.33	78.57	78.57	0.19	0.19
San Francisco	WCC	0.32	0.32	58.06	58.06	0.05	0.05
Santa Clara	WCC	0.30	0.30	21.43	21.43	-0.17	-0.17
Chicago St.	GWC	0.29	0.29	10.71	10.71	-0.23	-0.23
Utah	P12	0.25	0.25	16.67	16.67	-0.16	-0.16
Arizona	P12	0.24	0.24	67.65	67.65	0.08	0.08
New Mexico	MWC	0.23	0.23	81.25	81.25	0.15	0.15
Brigham Young	WCC	0.23	0.23	74.19	74.19	0.11	0.11
Seattle	ind	0.22	0.22	37.50	37.50	-0.06	-0.06
Arizona St.	P12	0.22	0.22	32.26	32.26	-0.08	-0.08
Washington	P12	0.22	0.22	67.74	67.74	0.08	0.08
Southern California	P12	0.22	0.22	18.75	18.75	-0.14	-0.14
Washington St.	P12	0.22	0.22	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.21	0.21	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
California	P12	0.20	0.20	72.73	72.73	0.09	0.09
St. Mary's	WCC	0.19	0.19	83.33	83.33	0.13	0.13
Oregon	P12	0.18	0.18	70.97	70.97	0.07	0.07
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.16	0.16	58.62	58.62	0.03	0.03
Longwood	ind	0.16	0.16	22.22	22.22	-0.09	-0.09
Boise St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Portland	WCC	0.16	0.16	20.00	20.00	-0.10	-0.10
DePaul	BE	0.16	0.16	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Christian	MWC	0.15	0.15	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.15	0.15	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.15	0.15	62.07	62.07	0.04	0.04
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.14	0.14	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.13	0.13	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.13	0.13	74.19	74.19	0.06	0.06
Gonzaga	WCC	0.13	0.13	80.65	80.65	0.08	0.08
Drake	MVC	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	83.87	83.87	0.08	0.08
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.11	0.11	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.10	0.10	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
UCLA	P12	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Texas	B12	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.07	0.07	10.34	10.34	-0.05	-0.05
Georgetown	BE	0.07	0.07	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Rutgers	BE	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.07	0.07	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	34.62	34.62	-0.02	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Missouri	B12	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Texas A&M	B12	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.04	0.04	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	21.88	21.88	-0.02	-0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	SB	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	3.12	3.12	-0.03	-0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01