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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Cal St. Bakersfield

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:140.8
Current RPI:225
Expected SOS:251
Current SOS:276
Current Record:3-3
Expected Record:16-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-3
Current OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:159
Expected OOC SOS:280



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-454.00.01%
21-558.10.28%
20-666.51.35%
19-780.34.04%
18-894.29.61%
17-9111.016.47%
16-10128.919.90%
15-11148.918.60%
14-12170.415.18%
13-13193.48.84%
12-14215.03.86%
11-15240.61.33%
10-16257.70.41%
9-17286.00.09%
8-18296.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Bakersfield.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Arizona (28.2)P12A78-66L0%0.0
11-19UC Santa Barbara (274.6)BWH77-70W100%0.0
11-22Fresno St. (202.1)MWCH71-63W100%0.0
11-25Wright St. (152.2)HorzA68-64L0%0.0
11-26North Florida (270.2)ASunN77-54W100%0.0
11-27North Dakota (231.9)BSkyN57-55L0%0.0
12-2SMU (50.9)AmerA0-012%-14.1
12-5Northern Arizona (330.5)BSkyA0-080%10.0
12-10Portland St. (293.2)BSkyH0-084%12.1
12-22BYU (66.1)WCCA0-018%-11.1
12-27UC Santa Barbara (274.6)BWA0-063%3.9
1-3Dartmouth (310.5)IvyA0-073%7.4
1-7Seattle (250.2)WACH0-080%10.3
1-12UT Rio Grande Valley (299.3)WACA0-080%10.1
1-14New Mexico St. (126.1)WACA0-037%-4.1
1-21Utah Valley (129.4)WACH0-064%4.4
1-26Chicago St. (292.4)WACA0-080%10.2
1-28UMKC (146.9)WACA0-049%-0.2
2-4Grand Canyon (187.1)WACA0-047%-0.8
2-9New Mexico St. (126.1)WACH0-057%2.1
2-11UT Rio Grande Valley (299.3)WACH0-091%16.3
2-16Utah Valley (129.4)WACA0-044%-1.8
2-18Seattle (250.2)WACA0-063%4.1
2-23UMKC (146.9)WACH0-069%6.0
2-25Chicago St. (292.4)WACH0-091%16.4
3-4Grand Canyon (187.1)WACH0-067%5.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Bakersfield's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal St. Bakersfield's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal St. Bakersfield.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC29.8426.4750.0064.330.007.59
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.004.7725.0025.04-0.00-2.38
SeattleWAC0.004.7620.0043.84-0.00-0.59
Grand CanyonWAC0.004.7350.0057.260.000.69
Utah ValleyWAC0.004.7260.0060.050.000.95
UMKCWAC0.004.7071.4357.230.000.68
Chicago St.WAC0.004.690.0017.55-0.00-3.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.004.6971.4369.290.001.81
UC Santa BarbaraBW8.333.950.0034.63-8.33-1.21
Portland St.BSky0.002.1325.0041.35-0.00-0.37
North DakotaBSky9.522.130.0051.34-9.520.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.002.0714.2928.42-0.00-0.90
North FloridaASun10.322.0616.6732.93-6.88-0.70
Wright St.Horz10.322.0066.6754.173.440.17
BYUWCC0.002.0071.4368.210.000.73
SMUAmer0.831.9957.1468.680.120.75
ArizonaP128.331.9983.3370.025.560.80
DartmouthIvy0.001.920.0023.34-0.00-1.03
Fresno St.MWC8.331.9275.0041.084.17-0.34
UC DavisBW0.000.3257.1448.410.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.290.0023.26-0.00-0.15
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.2966.6751.460.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.280.0033.43-0.00-0.09
Idaho St.BSky0.000.2514.2929.81-0.00-0.10
Weber St.BSky0.000.2520.0054.94-0.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.600.2516.6740.71-0.40-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.000.2450.0054.690.000.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.2433.3335.92-0.00-0.07
New MexicoMWC0.000.2471.4358.670.000.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.2428.5727.50-0.00-0.11
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.2450.0050.290.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.210.0021.30-0.00-0.12
Long Beach St.BW0.000.210.0039.35-0.00-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.2150.0038.430.00-0.05
USCP120.830.20100.0075.380.830.10
UTSACUSA0.830.1828.5728.46-0.36-0.08
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1816.6730.02-0.00-0.07
UTEPCUSA0.000.1725.0043.26-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.1757.1436.050.00-0.05
San FranciscoWCC0.830.1783.3350.740.560.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1785.7174.430.000.08
WashingtonP120.000.1757.1452.630.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.1760.0057.170.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.17100.0091.060.000.14
Notre DameACC0.000.15100.0075.010.000.07
MontanaBSky0.000.1414.2947.44-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.1450.0062.460.000.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1416.6743.29-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.1450.0050.940.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.140.0024.25-0.00-0.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.140.0024.77-0.00-0.07
Air ForceMWC0.000.1450.0042.710.00-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1483.3361.490.000.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.830.1433.3348.73-0.28-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.1475.0070.470.000.06
USC UpstateASun0.000.1433.3338.20-0.00-0.03
IdahoBSky0.000.1440.0050.88-0.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.1450.0053.560.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.1483.3378.430.000.08
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1475.0054.320.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.14100.0069.770.000.05
ColoradoP120.000.1471.4359.850.000.03
Washington St.P120.000.1450.0036.820.00-0.04
Green BayHorz0.000.1333.3348.71-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1375.0074.990.000.07
UCLAP120.000.13100.0083.550.000.09
HoustonAmer0.000.1383.3376.370.000.07
MemphisAmer0.000.1385.7159.740.000.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.600.1337.5036.24-0.15-0.03
IowaB100.000.1142.8644.33-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.1083.3374.620.000.05
UtahP120.000.1075.0061.040.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.100.0021.30-0.00-0.06
LamarSlnd0.830.1060.0043.970.17-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.1025.0063.95-0.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.1033.3326.75-0.00-0.05
MaristMAAC0.000.1042.8635.68-0.00-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.1042.8661.90-0.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.1050.0058.980.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.1062.5043.960.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1033.3345.60-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.1050.0035.230.00-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1033.3338.76-0.00-0.02
AlbanyAE0.000.1050.0060.380.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.100.0018.22-0.00-0.06
PacificWCC0.000.1050.0049.010.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0975.0059.100.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0850.0061.810.000.02
DenverSum0.000.0733.3341.11-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0720.0032.60-0.00-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0716.6731.91-0.00-0.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0750.0029.280.00-0.03
BrownIvy0.000.0750.0042.420.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0766.6756.360.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0742.8642.47-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0728.5730.63-0.00-0.03
DePaulBE0.000.0780.0035.960.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0750.0071.330.000.03
HarvardIvy0.000.070.0043.04-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0760.0070.140.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0757.1459.480.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0728.5730.29-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.0714.2933.07-0.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0775.0064.960.000.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0742.8637.25-0.00-0.02
NJITASun0.000.0742.8650.32-0.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0771.4366.220.000.02
PennIvy0.000.0740.0057.97-0.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0757.1455.810.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0728.5728.26-0.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.070.0022.69-0.00-0.04
WisconsinB100.000.0775.0073.840.000.03
YaleIvy0.000.0733.3364.14-0.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0733.3343.64-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0076.650.000.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0728.5734.18-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.0785.7176.170.000.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0771.4343.020.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0740.0037.44-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0757.1447.220.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0714.2937.52-0.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0716.6729.36-0.00-0.03
Texas St.SB0.000.0750.0043.310.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0783.3380.550.000.04
WyomingMWC0.000.0760.0048.590.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0771.4349.590.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.070.0032.39-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.070.0019.51-0.00-0.04
DukeACC0.000.0787.5078.680.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.0785.7175.950.000.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0750.0052.140.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0757.1440.590.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0742.8637.60-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0716.6730.27-0.00-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0733.3333.15-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.0771.4366.730.000.02
Oregon St.P120.830.0728.5723.76-0.36-0.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0683.3363.610.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0685.7180.960.000.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0675.0047.510.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0089.040.000.05
TempleAmer0.000.0671.4363.570.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0614.2926.81-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0039.200.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0440.0057.49-0.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0483.3362.840.000.01
AuburnSEC0.600.0483.3355.200.400.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0450.0052.330.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0450.0027.250.00-0.02
BryantNEC0.000.0428.5750.20-0.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0483.3362.080.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0416.6733.69-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.600.0487.5075.320.450.02
HartfordAE0.000.0412.5022.55-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0483.3357.990.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0425.0024.66-0.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.600.0471.4349.770.26-0.00
MaineAE0.000.0416.6725.61-0.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.600.0471.4365.740.260.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0450.0057.480.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0466.6765.810.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0471.4370.330.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0466.6770.140.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0462.5071.630.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0371.4363.090.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.830.0316.6732.62-0.56-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.600.0360.0067.410.120.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0350.0051.820.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0366.6754.420.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.600.0350.0033.010.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.600.0350.0046.670.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.600.0342.8650.36-0.090.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0314.2934.56-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0357.1447.320.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.000.0360.0057.900.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0383.3370.360.000.01
ButlerBE0.600.03100.0075.690.600.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0328.5739.44-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0055.850.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0320.0048.38-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0357.1442.660.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0020.01-0.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.0371.4366.530.000.01
Michigan St.B100.600.0350.0061.590.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0385.7155.550.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.600.0342.8638.05-0.09-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6732.240.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0059.480.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.100.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.600.0357.1467.020.090.01