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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Cal St. Bakersfield

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:117.0
Current RPI:117
Expected SOS:305
Current SOS:305
Current Record:21-8
Expected Record:21-8
Current Conf Record:14-3
Expected Conf Record:14-3
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:17-0
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:145
Expected OOC SOS:268



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-8117.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Bakersfield.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Idaho (191.0)BSkyH68-45W100%0.0
11-25Wyoming (187.0)MWCA68-64L0%0.0
11-29Saint Mary's (38.0)WCCA94-59L0%0.0
12-2Idaho (191.0)BSkyA67-63L0%0.0
12-5Northern Arizona (333.0)BSkyH72-55W100%0.0
12-12South Dakota (197.0)SumA67-77W100%0.0
12-14Dartmouth (284.0)IvyH69-62W100%0.0
12-16Fresno St. (66.0)MWCA76-68L0%0.0
12-22Portland St. (282.0)BSkyH78-66W100%0.0
12-28Arizona St. (99.0)P12A75-59L0%0.0
12-31Morgan St. (327.0)MEACH80-68W100%0.0
1-2UC Riverside (267.0)BWA48-67W100%0.0
1-9UMKC (286.0)WACA72-83W100%0.0
1-11Chicago St. (348.0)WACA56-67W100%0.0
1-16Seattle (287.0)WACA52-79W100%0.0
1-21UT Rio Grande Valley (338.0)WACH77-58W100%0.0
1-23New Mexico St. (111.0)WACH67-68L0%0.0
1-28Grand Canyon (91.0)WACA70-64L0%0.0
1-30Utah Valley (272.0)WACA74-78W100%0.0
2-4UMKC (286.0)WACH77-66W100%0.0
2-6Chicago St. (348.0)WACH71-48W100%0.0
2-13Utah Valley (272.0)WACH91-69W100%0.0
2-18New Mexico St. (111.0)WACA63-55L0%0.0
2-20UT Rio Grande Valley (338.0)WACA57-70W100%0.0
2-27Grand Canyon (91.0)WACH77-62W100%0.0
3-5Seattle (287.0)WACH93-71W100%0.0
3-10Chicago St. (348.0)WACN79-57W100%0.0
3-11Seattle (287.0)WACN72-47W100%0.0
3-12New Mexico St. (111.0)WACN54-57W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Bakersfield's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal St. Bakersfield's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal St. Bakersfield.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC26.6926.6977.6077.6014.7314.73
New Mexico St.WAC6.126.1267.8667.862.192.19
SeattleWAC6.086.0848.0048.00-0.24-0.24
Chicago St.WAC6.026.023.853.85-5.56-5.56
UMKCWAC4.534.5334.6234.62-1.39-1.39
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC4.474.4720.0020.00-2.68-2.68
Utah ValleyWAC4.444.4436.0036.00-1.24-1.24
Grand CanyonWAC4.414.4181.4881.482.782.78
IdahoBSky3.573.5762.0762.070.860.86
Portland St.BSky1.991.9939.2939.29-0.43-0.43
Northern ArizonaBSky1.871.8711.1111.11-1.45-1.45
WyomingMWC1.861.8637.9337.93-0.45-0.45
Saint Mary'sWCC1.851.8583.3383.331.231.23
South DakotaSum1.791.7941.3841.38-0.31-0.31
Fresno St.MWC1.781.7870.9770.970.750.75
UC RiversideBW1.751.7540.0040.00-0.35-0.35
Morgan St.MEAC1.751.7527.5927.59-0.79-0.79
Arizona St.P121.721.7245.1645.16-0.17-0.17
DartmouthIvy1.721.7234.6234.62-0.53-0.53
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.530.5350.0050.000.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.350.3541.3841.38-0.06-0.06
Idaho St.BSky0.300.3048.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.300.3043.3343.33-0.04-0.04
UC DavisBW0.300.3032.1432.14-0.11-0.11
Southern UtahBSky0.290.2914.2914.29-0.21-0.21
Weber St.BSky0.270.2774.1974.190.130.13
San Jose St.MWC0.260.2621.4321.43-0.15-0.15
New MexicoMWC0.250.2553.1253.120.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.240.2448.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.240.2422.8622.86-0.13-0.13
MontanaBSky0.230.2362.0762.070.060.06
UTEPCUSA0.230.2356.2556.250.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.230.2327.5927.59-0.10-0.10
UNLVMWC0.220.2251.6151.610.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.210.2155.1755.170.020.02
CaliforniaP120.200.2069.7069.700.080.08
San Diego St.MWC0.200.2071.8871.880.090.09
Air ForceMWC0.190.1940.0040.00-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.180.1874.1974.190.090.09
MinnesotaB100.180.1825.8125.81-0.09-0.09
DenverSum0.180.1851.6151.610.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.180.1828.5728.57-0.08-0.08
HamptonMEAC0.180.1866.6766.670.060.06
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.170.1758.6258.620.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.170.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Long Beach St.BW0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.170.1771.8871.880.070.07
HoustonAmer0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
Western IllinoisSum0.150.1529.1729.17-0.06-0.06
WashingtonP120.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.1416.6716.67-0.10-0.10
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
NevadaMWC0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
BYUWCC0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.1277.4277.420.070.07
LamarSlnd0.120.1226.9226.92-0.05-0.05
IllinoisB100.120.1244.1244.12-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
StanfordP120.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
USCP120.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0924.2424.24-0.05-0.05
UABCUSA0.090.0980.6580.650.060.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
DePaulBE0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
Iowa St.B120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
NorthwesternB100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
OaklandHorz0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0980.0080.000.050.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0987.1087.100.060.06
IPFWSum0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
PortlandWCC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
PacificWCC0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
BrownIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
CornellIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0678.1278.120.040.04
North FloridaASun0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
PennIvy0.060.0637.0437.04-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.060.0677.7877.780.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0611.1111.11-0.05-0.05
Texas St.SB0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0613.3313.33-0.05-0.05
YaleIvy0.060.0677.7877.780.040.04
DrakeMVC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
VermontAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
WagnerNEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
UtahP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01