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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Cal St. Bakersfield

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:75.0
Current RPI:75
Expected SOS:172
Current SOS:172
Current Record:19-9
Expected Record:19-9
Current Conf Record:13-3
Expected Conf Record:13-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-1
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:139
Expected OOC SOS:177



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-975.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Bakersfield.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Arizona (2.0)P12A78-66L0%0.0
11-19UC Santa Barbara (324.0)BWH77-70W100%0.0
11-22Fresno St. (76.0)MWCH71-63W100%0.0
11-25Wright St. (115.0)HorzA68-64L0%0.0
11-26North Florida (217.0)ASunN77-54W100%0.0
11-27North Dakota (144.0)BSkyN57-55L0%0.0
12-2SMU (13.0)AmerA49-43L0%0.0
12-5Northern Arizona (335.0)BSkyA47-81W100%0.0
12-10Portland St. (268.0)BSkyH81-79W100%0.0
12-22BYU (65.0)WCCA81-71L0%0.0
12-27UC Santa Barbara (324.0)BWA62-60L0%0.0
1-3Dartmouth (305.0)IvyA60-64W100%0.0
1-7Seattle (287.0)WACH78-71W100%0.0
1-12UT Rio Grande Valley (319.0)WACA81-88W100%0.0
1-14New Mexico St. (59.0)WACA63-58L0%0.0
1-21Utah Valley (206.0)WACH68-65W100%0.0
1-26Chicago St. (318.0)WACA59-75W100%0.0
1-28UMKC (184.0)WACA63-74W100%0.0
2-4Grand Canyon (131.0)WACA62-65W100%0.0
2-9New Mexico St. (59.0)WACH72-53W100%0.0
2-11UT Rio Grande Valley (319.0)WACH75-53W100%0.0
2-16Utah Valley (206.0)WACA71-80W100%0.0
2-18Seattle (287.0)WACA48-51W100%0.0
2-23UMKC (184.0)WACH71-62W100%0.0
2-25Chicago St. (318.0)WACH69-49W100%0.0
3-4Grand Canyon (131.0)WACH52-58L0%0.0
3-10Utah Valley (206.0)WACN81-80W100%0.0
3-11New Mexico St. (59.0)WACN60-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Bakersfield's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal St. Bakersfield's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal St. Bakersfield.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC26.6026.6072.6672.6612.0512.05
New Mexico St.WAC6.296.2985.1985.194.434.43
Utah ValleyWAC6.256.2548.0048.00-0.25-0.25
UMKCWAC4.594.5950.0050.000.000.00
SeattleWAC4.594.5940.0040.00-0.92-0.92
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC4.564.5625.9325.93-2.20-2.20
Chicago St.WAC4.534.5311.1111.11-3.52-3.52
Grand CanyonWAC4.474.4770.3770.371.821.82
UC Santa BarbaraBW3.663.6616.0016.00-2.49-2.49
Portland St.BSky2.032.0344.4444.44-0.23-0.23
North DakotaBSky2.002.0066.6766.670.670.67
Northern ArizonaBSky1.951.9526.6726.67-0.91-0.91
North FloridaASun1.911.9137.9337.93-0.46-0.46
BYUWCC1.881.8865.6265.620.590.59
SMUAmer1.851.8587.8887.881.401.40
Wright St.Horz1.851.8558.6258.620.320.32
ArizonaP121.851.8587.8887.881.401.40
DartmouthIvy1.791.7926.9226.92-0.82-0.82
Fresno St.MWC1.791.7962.0762.070.430.43
UC DavisBW0.320.3262.5062.500.080.08
New MexicoMWC0.290.2954.8454.840.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.290.2922.2222.22-0.16-0.16
Weber St.BSky0.280.2856.6756.670.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.250.2564.5264.520.070.07
Southern UtahBSky0.250.2512.9012.90-0.19-0.19
UC IrvineBW0.250.2557.5857.580.040.04
Idaho St.BSky0.250.2513.3313.33-0.18-0.18
San DiegoWCC0.240.2440.0040.00-0.05-0.05
Cal PolyBW0.220.2231.0331.03-0.08-0.08
Long Beach St.BW0.220.2240.6240.62-0.04-0.04
UTSACUSA0.220.2238.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.210.2141.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
UTEPCUSA0.210.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.190.1937.9337.93-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.180.1896.9796.970.170.17
Arizona St.P120.170.1745.4545.45-0.02-0.02
USCP120.170.1772.7372.730.080.08
Cal St. FullertonBW0.160.1651.7251.720.010.01
NevadaMWC0.160.1682.3582.350.100.10
IdahoBSky0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Washington St.P120.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
PortlandWCC0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
WashingtonP120.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
ColoradoP120.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
UCLAP120.140.1487.8887.880.110.11
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.130.1335.7135.71-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1321.8821.88-0.07-0.07
Notre DameACC0.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
MontanaBSky0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.120.1260.7160.710.030.03
UtahP120.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
OaklandHorz0.120.1273.3373.330.060.06
San Diego St.MWC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Green BayHorz0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
HoustonAmer0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
MemphisAmer0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
DenverSum0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
MaristMAAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
IowaB100.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.090.0978.5778.570.050.05
LamarSlnd0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Penn St.B100.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0937.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
SamfordSC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
DrakeMVC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Saint LouisA100.090.0936.3636.36-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
PacificWCC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.080.0884.8584.850.060.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0738.4638.46-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.070.0761.5461.540.020.02
IonaMAAC0.070.0764.7164.710.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
PennIvy0.070.0746.4346.43-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.070.0760.7160.710.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
BradleyMVC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.060.0677.1477.140.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
NorthwesternB100.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0610.0010.00-0.05-0.05
Texas St.SB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
TroySB0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
DetroitHorz0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0629.4129.41-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
NJITASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
StetsonASun0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
WyomingMWC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.7372.730.020.02
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01