Brigham Young

Conference:	WCC
Expected RPI:	44.9
Current RPI:	41
Expected SOS:	103
Current SOS:	67
Current Record:	18-6
Expected Record:	22-7
Current Conf Record:	8-3
Expected Conf Record:	12-4
Probability of Auto Bid:	26.99%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	4-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-0
Current OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC RPI:	41
Expected OOC SOS:	60

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-6	37.5	26.47%
22-7	44.8	52.67%
21-8	53.5	18.72%
20-9	64.1	2.08%
19-10	80.3	0.06%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Brigham Young.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Utah St. (132.3)	WAC	A	69-62	L	0%	0.0
11-18	Longwood (311.5)	ind	H	92-60	W	100%	0.0
11-22	Prairie View A&M (281.7)	SWAC	H	90-51	W	100%	0.0
11-25	Nevada (63.3)	WAC	N	55-76	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Wisconsin (21.8)	B10	N	56-73	L	0%	0.0
11-30	Northern Arizona (328.5)	BSky	N	52-87	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Oregon (86.8)	P12	N	79-65	W	100%	0.0
12-7	Weber St. (84.1)	BSky	H	94-66	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Utah (272.4)	P12	A	42-61	W	100%	0.0
12-17	Baylor (6.8)	B12	H	83-86	L	0%	0.0
12-20	Buffalo (70.7)	MAC	H	93-78	W	100%	0.0
12-22	UC Santa Barbara (147.3)	BW	H	89-75	W	100%	0.0
12-29	St. Mary's (16.3)	WCC	A	98-82	L	0%	0.0
12-31	San Diego (210.6)	WCC	H	88-52	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Loyola Marymount (107.0)	WCC	A	65-73	W	100%	0.0
1-7	San Francisco (152.1)	WCC	H	81-56	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Santa Clara (271.9)	WCC	H	95-78	W	100%	0.0
1-16	San Diego (210.6)	WCC	A	63-82	W	100%	0.0
1-19	Loyola Marymount (107.0)	WCC	H	68-82	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Pepperdine (250.7)	WCC	A	64-77	W	100%	0.0
1-25	Virginia Tech (93.2)	ACC	A	68-70	W	100%	0.0
1-28	St. Mary's (16.3)	WCC	H	66-80	L	0%	0.0
2-2	Gonzaga (27.9)	WCC	H	83-73	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Portland (215.5)	WCC	A	60-79	W	100%	0.0
2-11	Pepperdine (250.7)	WCC	H	0-0		97%	20.6
2-16	San Francisco (152.1)	WCC	A	0-0		78%	8.4
2-18	Santa Clara (271.9)	WCC	A	0-0		92%	15.1
2-23	Gonzaga (27.9)	WCC	A	0-0		40%	-2.9
2-25	Portland (215.5)	WCC	H	0-0		98%	22.1

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Brigham Young's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Brigham Young's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Brigham Young.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Brigham Young	WCC	26.45	26.39	72.41	74.87	11.86	13.13
Portland	WCC	2.86	4.41	22.73	23.29	-1.56	-2.36
St. Mary's	WCC	4.84	4.38	90.00	86.80	3.87	3.23
Gonzaga	WCC	2.65	4.36	85.71	85.29	1.89	3.07
Loyola Marymount	WCC	4.74	4.35	60.00	58.36	0.95	0.73
San Francisco	WCC	2.80	4.35	59.09	57.06	0.51	0.61
San Diego	WCC	4.79	4.35	36.84	36.53	-1.26	-1.17
Santa Clara	WCC	2.76	4.35	30.00	28.07	-1.10	-1.91
Pepperdine	WCC	2.89	4.35	33.33	36.41	-0.96	-1.18
Northern Arizona	BSky	2.32	1.98	14.29	16.76	-1.66	-1.31
UC Santa Barbara	BW	2.28	1.94	58.82	60.43	0.40	0.40
Weber St.	BSky	2.32	1.91	84.21	79.92	1.58	1.14
Nevada	WAC	2.32	1.91	85.00	79.25	1.62	1.12
Utah	P12	2.23	1.88	19.05	15.55	-1.38	-1.29
Utah St.	WAC	2.23	1.85	47.83	51.31	-0.10	0.05
Longwood	ind	2.19	1.85	31.58	28.92	-0.81	-0.78
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	2.28	1.84	36.84	42.30	-0.60	-0.28
Baylor	B12	2.23	1.82	90.48	83.29	1.81	1.21
Oregon	P12	2.18	1.81	72.73	66.76	0.99	0.61
Buffalo	MAC	2.08	1.72	72.22	69.01	0.93	0.66
Virginia Tech	ACC	2.08	1.72	59.09	57.04	0.38	0.24
Wisconsin	B10	2.08	1.72	73.91	73.11	1.00	0.80
Montana	BSky	0.34	0.35	70.00	73.28	0.14	0.16
Washington St.	P12	0.28	0.34	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.43	0.31	33.33	33.88	-0.14	-0.10
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.33	0.28	40.91	44.03	-0.06	-0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.24	0.28	27.27	26.95	-0.11	-0.13
Pacific	BW	0.25	0.25	35.00	37.47	-0.07	-0.06
Seattle	ind	0.13	0.25	23.53	33.28	-0.07	-0.08
Hawaii	WAC	0.19	0.24	57.14	53.12	0.03	0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.19	0.22	45.00	41.76	-0.02	-0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.24	0.21	30.43	31.43	-0.09	-0.08
Washington	P12	0.25	0.21	69.57	66.54	0.10	0.07
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.21	0.20	21.05	22.46	-0.12	-0.11
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.09	0.19	47.83	47.87	-0.00	-0.01
California	P12	0.20	0.18	75.00	74.61	0.10	0.09
UCLA	P12	0.23	0.18	54.55	56.79	0.02	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.19	0.18	69.57	68.29	0.08	0.07
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.14	0.18	69.57	68.90	0.05	0.07
Arizona	P12	0.19	0.18	66.67	68.55	0.06	0.07
Fresno St.	WAC	0.23	0.18	39.13	44.52	-0.05	-0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.21	0.17	35.00	35.26	-0.06	-0.05
Portland St.	BSky	0.24	0.16	42.86	45.80	-0.03	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.19	0.15	19.05	25.52	-0.12	-0.07
Cal Poly	BW	0.15	0.13	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.15	0.13	30.00	31.54	-0.06	-0.05
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.20	0.13	30.00	33.20	-0.08	-0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.20	0.13	85.71	78.05	0.15	0.07
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.15	0.13	16.67	23.02	-0.10	-0.07
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.13	81.82	77.20	0.06	0.07
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.15	0.12	40.91	38.38	-0.03	-0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.20	0.12	47.06	50.75	-0.01	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.14	0.12	25.00	37.58	-0.07	-0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.12	100.00	94.55	0.05	0.11
St. Louis	A10	0.14	0.12	77.27	77.67	0.08	0.07
Oklahoma	B12	0.10	0.12	59.09	54.70	0.02	0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.14	0.12	47.62	51.08	-0.01	0.00
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.09	0.12	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.14	0.12	72.73	71.71	0.06	0.05
Colorado	P12	0.09	0.12	66.67	62.65	0.03	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.09	0.12	63.64	63.16	0.03	0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.14	0.12	81.82	76.80	0.09	0.06
Illinois	B10	0.09	0.12	72.73	64.43	0.04	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.09	0.12	76.19	72.91	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.19	0.11	45.45	40.70	-0.02	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.10	0.00	5.37	-0.06	-0.09
UC Riverside	BW	0.11	0.10	42.86	39.66	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.16	0.10	65.00	66.70	0.05	0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.10	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.10	0.09	14.29	17.17	-0.07	-0.06
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.09	0.09	54.17	54.75	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	61.90	63.52	0.02	0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.15	0.09	82.61	81.44	0.10	0.06
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.09	71.43	69.05	0.04	0.04
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.10	0.09	10.00	14.93	-0.08	-0.06
Missouri St.	MVC	0.14	0.09	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.09	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.14	0.09	90.48	87.91	0.11	0.07
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.09	0.09	76.19	75.94	0.05	0.05
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.14	0.09	38.10	42.78	-0.03	-0.01
Denver	SB	0.14	0.09	70.83	72.23	0.06	0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.15	0.09	31.82	42.13	-0.06	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.14	0.09	8.70	11.67	-0.11	-0.07
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.10	0.09	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.09	73.91	68.43	0.02	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.09	0.09	72.73	68.28	0.04	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.13	0.08	52.38	46.68	0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.08	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.07	71.43	73.35	0.02	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.06	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.06	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.11	0.06	17.39	19.81	-0.07	-0.04
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.06	25.00	28.52	-0.02	-0.03
Maine	AE	0.10	0.06	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.06	30.00	34.15	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.06	81.82	81.03	0.03	0.04
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.06	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.10	0.06	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.06	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.10	0.06	61.90	58.59	0.02	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.06	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.06	82.61	84.57	0.03	0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.10	0.06	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Southern Utah	Sum	0.10	0.06	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.06	17.65	27.10	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.06	30.00	37.30	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.06	17.39	24.41	-0.03	-0.03
Columbia	Ivy	0.09	0.06	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.06	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.06	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.06	15.00	15.73	-0.04	-0.04
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.06	40.91	42.05	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.06	95.83	92.57	0.04	0.05
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.09	0.06	83.33	84.76	0.06	0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.09	0.06	33.33	37.25	-0.03	-0.02
North Texas	SB	0.09	0.06	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.09	0.06	62.50	61.50	0.02	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.06	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.00	0.06	65.22	63.61	0.00	0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.10	0.06	21.74	24.58	-0.06	-0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.06	69.57	65.87	0.04	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.10	0.06	34.78	35.20	-0.03	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.06	60.00	59.06	0.02	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.10	0.06	38.89	43.93	-0.02	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.06	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.06	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.06	65.22	62.65	0.01	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.06	80.77	80.75	0.03	0.04
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.09	0.06	24.00	24.86	-0.05	-0.03
Wofford	SC	0.10	0.06	59.09	57.93	0.02	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.09	0.06	25.00	25.13	-0.05	-0.03
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.06	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.09	0.06	78.26	72.34	0.05	0.03
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.06	91.30	87.18	0.04	0.04
Texas	B12	0.05	0.06	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.09	0.06	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.06	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.09	0.06	61.90	55.14	0.02	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.06	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.06	86.36	83.09	0.03	0.04
Iowa	B10	0.04	0.06	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.09	0.06	86.96	83.16	0.07	0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.04	0.06	86.96	85.46	0.03	0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.04	0.06	41.67	38.67	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	34.78	38.42	-0.02	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.05	0.03	40.91	41.72	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.03	27.27	23.80	-0.02	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.03	27.27	35.02	-0.02	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.03	36.84	41.45	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.70	12.13	-0.04	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.03	9.52	13.19	-0.04	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.03	37.50	41.54	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.00	0.03	33.33	41.31	-0.00	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.03	5.26	7.30	-0.05	-0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.03	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	26.32	29.79	-0.02	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.00	0.03	73.91	75.49	0.00	0.02
Temple	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.03	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.00	0.03	79.17	80.10	0.00	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.02	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.64	0.02	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.04	0.03	18.18	21.13	-0.03	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.04	0.03	54.55	57.69	0.00	0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.04	0.03	82.61	80.42	0.03	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.03	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.04	0.03	30.43	29.50	-0.02	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.03	52.38	52.86	0.00	0.00
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.00	0.03	39.13	42.12	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.04	0.03	75.00	75.78	0.02	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.04	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.03	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.00	0.03	65.00	60.02	0.00	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.04	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.03	28.00	28.91	-0.02	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.00	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.00	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.03	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.04	0.03	65.22	60.58	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.03	20.83	20.60	-0.03	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.04	0.03	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.01	0.04	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.04	0.03	35.00	39.38	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.04	0.03	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.00