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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Brigham Young

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:69.0
Current RPI:69
Expected SOS:94
Current SOS:94
Current Record:20-11
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:10-7
Expected Conf Record:10-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-0
Current OOC Record:10-4
Expected OOC Record:10-4
Expected OOC RPI:47
Expected OOC SOS:54



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1169.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Brigham Young.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Tennessee St. (105.0)OVCH81-66W100%0.0
11-13Georgia St. (209.0)CAAH80-62W100%0.0
11-16Florida St. (85.0)ACCN88-70L0%0.0
11-17Notre Dame (35.0)BEN78-68L0%0.0
11-21Texas San Antonio (260.0)WACH81-62W100%0.0
11-24Cal St. Northridge (254.0)BWH87-75W100%0.0
11-28Montana (66.0)BSkyH85-60W100%0.0
12-1Iowa St. (41.0)B12A83-62L0%0.0
12-8Utah (161.0)P12H61-58W100%0.0
12-15Weber St. (84.0)BSkyA68-78W100%0.0
12-21Baylor (71.0)B12A79-64L0%0.0
12-27Northern Arizona (255.0)BSkyH84-54W100%0.0
12-29Virginia Tech (177.0)ACCH97-71W100%0.0
1-3Loyola Marymount (211.0)WCCH92-51W100%0.0
1-5San Francisco (167.0)WCCA76-80W100%0.0
1-10Pepperdine (212.0)WCCH76-51W100%0.0
1-12Santa Clara (101.0)WCCA64-82W100%0.0
1-16St. Mary's (29.0)WCCH69-70L0%0.0
1-19San Diego (165.0)WCCH74-57W100%0.0
1-24Gonzaga (6.0)WCCA83-63L0%0.0
1-26Portland (231.0)WCCA67-85W100%0.0
1-31Pepperdine (212.0)WCCA61-63W100%0.0
2-2Santa Clara (101.0)WCCH96-79W100%0.0
2-7San Diego (165.0)WCCA74-68L0%0.0
2-9San Francisco (167.0)WCCH87-99L0%0.0
2-16Portland (231.0)WCCH86-72W100%0.0
2-19Utah St. (108.0)WACH70-68W100%0.0
2-21St. Mary's (29.0)WCCA64-57L0%0.0
2-28Gonzaga (6.0)WCCH65-70L0%0.0
3-2Loyola Marymount (211.0)WCCA70-73W100%0.0
3-8San Diego (165.0)WCCN69-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Brigham Young's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Brigham Young's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Brigham Young.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Brigham YoungWCC26.3326.3362.2262.226.446.44
San DiegoWCC5.745.7441.3841.38-0.99-0.99
Loyola MarymountWCC4.254.2533.3333.33-1.42-1.42
St. Mary'sWCC4.174.1780.0080.002.502.50
GonzagaWCC4.144.1493.3393.333.593.59
PepperdineWCC4.114.1140.7440.74-0.76-0.76
Santa ClaraWCC4.094.0967.8667.861.461.46
San FranciscoWCC4.084.0844.4444.44-0.45-0.45
PortlandWCC4.064.0632.1432.14-1.45-1.45
MontanaBSky1.881.8882.1482.141.211.21
Northern ArizonaBSky1.801.8035.4835.48-0.52-0.52
Weber St.BSky1.801.8082.7682.761.181.18
Utah St.WAC1.791.7968.9768.970.680.68
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.771.7742.8642.86-0.25-0.25
BaylorB121.711.7153.3353.330.110.11
Texas San AntonioWAC1.671.6732.2632.26-0.59-0.59
Iowa St.B121.661.6665.6265.620.520.52
UtahP121.641.6443.3343.33-0.22-0.22
Georgia St.CAA1.641.6448.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Tennessee St.OVC1.641.6455.1755.170.170.17
Florida St.ACC1.641.6453.1253.120.100.10
Virginia TechACC1.641.6441.9441.94-0.26-0.26
Notre DameBE1.611.6172.7372.730.730.73
PacificBW0.320.3262.5062.500.080.08
Southern UtahBSky0.310.3131.0331.03-0.12-0.12
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.290.2932.2632.26-0.10-0.10
Montana St.BSky0.270.2739.2939.29-0.06-0.06
Idaho St.BSky0.270.2717.2417.24-0.17-0.17
Portland St.BSky0.260.2623.0823.08-0.14-0.14
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.260.2638.4638.46-0.06-0.06
Cal PolyBW0.210.2155.1755.170.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.200.2075.0075.000.100.10
Northern ColoradoBSky0.190.1937.9337.93-0.05-0.05
North DakotaBSky0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.190.1944.4444.44-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.190.1940.6240.62-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.180.1831.0331.03-0.07-0.07
San Jose St.WAC0.180.1828.5728.57-0.08-0.08
Texas St.WAC0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
West VirginiaB120.180.1840.6240.62-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.180.1864.5264.520.050.05
ClemsonACC0.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyGWC0.160.1635.7135.71-0.05-0.05
Northern KentuckyASun0.160.1640.7440.74-0.03-0.03
South Carolina UpstateASun0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechWAC0.160.1680.6580.650.100.10
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
DukeACC0.160.1684.3884.380.110.11
Kansas St.B120.150.1578.7978.790.090.09
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
HawaiiBW0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
CaliforniaP120.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
IdahoWAC0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
TulaneCUSA0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
DrexelCAA0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.130.1358.8258.820.020.02
St. John'sBE0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
OregonP120.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
TulsaCUSA0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Oregon St.P120.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.130.1385.2985.290.090.09
Georgia TechACC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
UC DavisBW0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Long Beach St.BW0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
MississippiSEC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
DenverWAC0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
SeattleWAC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
St. LouisA100.100.1081.8281.820.070.07
KentuckySEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
SienaMAAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
ColoradoP120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Southern MethodistCUSA0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Texas ChristianB120.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Texas TechB120.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
MarylandACC0.100.1064.7164.710.030.03
Miami FLACC0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
VirginiaACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
BradleyMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0857.6957.690.010.01
Old DominionCAA0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
DavidsonSC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
North FloridaASun0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
MonmouthNEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSlnd0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
ArizonaP120.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0885.1985.190.050.05
DrakeMVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
LouisvilleBE0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
UCLAP120.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
OhioMAC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ButlerA100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
CreightonMVC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
HarvardIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
IllinoisB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
RutgersBE0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0353.8553.850.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
George MasonCAA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
MissouriSEC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Southern MississippiCUSA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
College of CharlestonSC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
NC GreensboroSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Virginia Military InstBSth0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CharlotteA100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0214.8114.81-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0252.9452.940.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
BrownIvy0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.GWC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0210.0010.00-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
PittsburghBE0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
PurdueB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
South FloridaBE0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
SyracuseBE0.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
VillanovaBE0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00