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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Sacred Heart

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:258.0
Current RPI:258
Expected SOS:306
Current SOS:306
Current Record:12-18
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-11
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:323
Expected OOC SOS:204



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-18258.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sacred Heart.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Quinnipiac (297.0)MAACN64-76W100%0.0
11-16Yale (44.0)IvyA99-77L0%0.0
11-18UMass Lowell (261.0)AEA87-84L0%0.0
11-21Fairfield (142.0)MAACA83-79L0%0.0
11-25Holy Cross (248.0)PatA69-60L0%0.0
12-2Connecticut (32.0)AmerA82-49L0%0.0
12-5Towson (150.0)CAAA83-61L0%0.0
12-12Lafayette (329.0)PatH86-90L0%0.0
12-14Hartford (292.0)AEA80-71L0%0.0
12-21Northwestern (115.0)B10A103-67L0%0.0
12-28Hofstra (54.0)CAAA80-73L0%0.0
1-2Robert Morris (291.0)NECA65-69W100%0.0
1-4St. Francis PA (266.0)NECA84-80L0%0.0
1-7Fairleigh Dickinson (205.0)NECH68-80L0%0.0
1-9Wagner (185.0)NECH59-76L0%0.0
1-14Central Connecticut (351.0)NECA78-80W100%0.0
1-16St. Francis NY (276.0)NECA85-67L0%0.0
1-21Mount St. Mary's (245.0)NECH76-71W100%0.0
1-24Wagner (185.0)NECA58-67W100%0.0
1-27LIU Brooklyn (254.0)NECA92-84L0%0.0
1-30Bryant (320.0)NECH72-71W100%0.0
2-4St. Francis NY (276.0)NECH74-70W100%0.0
2-6LIU Brooklyn (254.0)NECH98-90W100%0.0
2-11Mount St. Mary's (245.0)NECA66-61L0%0.0
2-13Central Connecticut (351.0)NECH87-52W100%0.0
2-18Bryant (320.0)NECA57-74W100%0.0
2-20Fairleigh Dickinson (205.0)NECA86-91W100%0.0
2-25Robert Morris (291.0)NECH63-73L0%0.0
2-27St. Francis PA (266.0)NECH88-78W100%0.0
3-2LIU Brooklyn (254.0)NECH76-84L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sacred Heart's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Sacred Heart's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Sacred Heart.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Sacred HeartNEC26.4126.4143.9443.94-3.20-3.20
LIU BrooklynNEC5.955.9550.0050.000.000.00
WagnerNEC4.504.5068.9768.971.711.71
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC4.474.4755.1755.170.460.46
Mount St. Mary'sNEC4.374.3741.9441.94-0.70-0.70
St. Francis NYNEC4.364.3644.8344.83-0.45-0.45
Central ConnecticutNEC4.364.3614.8114.81-3.07-3.07
Robert MorrisNEC4.314.3130.0030.00-1.73-1.73
St. Francis PANEC4.304.3040.7440.74-0.80-0.80
BryantNEC4.284.2825.0025.00-2.14-2.14
UMass LowellAE1.961.9633.3333.33-0.65-0.65
HartfordAE1.921.9225.8125.81-0.93-0.93
FairfieldMAAC1.831.8358.0658.060.300.30
YaleIvy1.831.8376.9276.920.990.99
LafayettePat1.821.8217.2417.24-1.20-1.20
Holy CrossPat1.781.7840.6240.62-0.33-0.33
TowsonCAA1.771.7758.6258.620.310.31
QuinnipiacMAAC1.771.7731.0331.03-0.67-0.67
ConnecticutAmer1.751.7569.7069.700.690.69
NorthwesternB101.721.7261.2961.290.390.39
HofstraCAA1.721.7270.9770.970.720.72
MaineAE0.380.3826.6726.67-0.18-0.18
Loyola MDPat0.340.3430.0030.00-0.14-0.14
AlbanyAE0.330.3374.1974.190.160.16
LehighPat0.320.3251.6151.610.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.300.3046.6746.67-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.280.2826.6726.67-0.13-0.13
AmericanPat0.270.2738.7138.71-0.06-0.06
BucknellPat0.260.2655.1755.170.030.03
DartmouthIvy0.250.2533.3333.33-0.08-0.08
ArmyPat0.240.2458.0658.060.040.04
New HampshireAE0.220.2258.6258.620.040.04
RiderMAAC0.220.2239.3939.39-0.05-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.210.2121.8821.88-0.12-0.12
BrownIvy0.200.2025.9325.93-0.10-0.10
NJITASun0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
PennIvy0.200.2037.0437.04-0.05-0.05
FordhamA100.190.1955.1755.170.020.02
UMBCAE0.190.1921.8821.88-0.11-0.11
SienaMAAC0.190.1963.6463.640.050.05
MonmouthMAAC0.190.1979.4179.410.110.11
MarylandB100.180.1875.0075.000.090.09
VermontAE0.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
RutgersB100.170.1719.3519.35-0.10-0.10
ColumbiaIvy0.170.1765.5265.520.050.05
Stony BrookAE0.160.1680.0080.000.100.10
Boston UniversityPat0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
DelawareCAA0.160.1623.3323.33-0.09-0.09
ManhattanMAAC0.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
PrincetonIvy0.140.1477.7877.780.080.08
HarvardIvy0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1421.8821.88-0.08-0.08
NortheasternCAA0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
NavyPat0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
William & MaryCAA0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
MaristMAAC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
MichiganB100.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
TempleAmer0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Ohio St.B100.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
CornellIvy0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
IonaMAAC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
St. John'sBE0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
ColgatePat0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
DukeACC0.090.0969.7069.700.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
George MasonA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0856.0056.000.010.01
MassachusettsA100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
LouisvilleACC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
North FloridaASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Saint LouisA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0822.8622.86-0.04-0.04
FurmanSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
MemphisAmer0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
USCP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
IllinoisB100.060.0644.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
KansasB120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
TexasB120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01