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Through games of Jan 16, 2017.


Sacred Heart

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:294.0
Current RPI:289
Expected SOS:329
Current SOS:337
Current Record:8-11
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:3-3
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-11
Current OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:267
Expected OOC SOS:301



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-11186.00.01%
19-12211.00.05%
18-13230.30.21%
17-14243.01.63%
16-15257.85.63%
15-16271.513.16%
14-17285.521.13%
13-18298.024.72%
12-19309.418.76%
11-20318.410.31%
10-21326.03.60%
9-22331.00.69%
8-23336.40.09%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sacred Heart.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Fairfield (168.1)MAACA85-63L0%0.0
11-15Hofstra (189.5)CAAH90-86W100%0.0
11-18Arizona (11.6)P12A95-65L0%0.0
11-21Santa Clara (161.0)WCCA84-74L0%0.0
11-24Northern Colorado (254.5)BSkyN81-59L0%0.0
11-25Norfolk St. (310.0)MEACN61-59W100%0.0
11-30Fordham (246.0)A10A70-71W100%0.0
12-3Hartford (313.7)AEH79-87L0%0.0
12-6UMass Lowell (248.1)AEH91-82W100%0.0
12-8Yale (111.3)IvyH52-66L0%0.0
12-11Lafayette (313.6)PatA61-85W100%0.0
12-18Boston College (196.2)ACCA82-75L0%0.0
12-21Holy Cross (193.2)PatH67-72L0%0.0
12-29Robert Morris (273.9)NECH67-78L0%0.0
12-31St. Francis PA (282.0)NECH67-87L0%0.0
1-5Central Connecticut (346.8)NECA62-64W100%0.0
1-7Wagner (248.7)NECA75-64L0%0.0
1-12St. Francis NY (339.4)NECA75-87W100%0.0
1-14Bryant (283.2)NECA110-112W100%0.0
1-19Mount St. Mary's (185.6)NECH0-040%-2.9
1-21Wagner (248.7)NECH0-042%-2.1
1-26LIU Brooklyn (226.7)NECH0-047%-0.9
1-28Mount St. Mary's (185.6)NECA0-021%-9.2
2-2Fairleigh Dickinson (239.7)NECA0-029%-6.1
2-4Bryant (283.2)NECH0-052%0.5
2-9St. Francis NY (339.4)NECH0-073%6.8
2-11Central Connecticut (346.8)NECH0-080%9.3
2-16Fairleigh Dickinson (239.7)NECH0-050%0.1
2-18LIU Brooklyn (226.7)NECA0-026%-7.2
2-23St. Francis PA (282.0)NECA0-030%-5.8
2-25Robert Morris (273.9)NECA0-033%-5.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sacred Heart's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Sacred Heart's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Sacred Heart.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Sacred HeartNEC26.4726.3545.5443.32-2.36-3.52
Central ConnecticutNEC3.104.2212.5017.14-2.33-2.77
LIU BrooklynNEC0.514.1661.1158.870.110.74
WagnerNEC3.014.1535.7147.38-0.86-0.22
BryantNEC2.894.1423.5336.23-1.53-1.14
St. Francis NYNEC3.024.1417.6522.21-1.95-2.30
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.474.1337.5044.18-0.12-0.48
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.324.1136.8446.93-0.08-0.25
Robert MorrisNEC2.874.1127.7836.28-1.28-1.13
St. Francis PANEC2.774.1026.6738.70-1.29-0.93
UMass LowellAE2.871.8344.4442.11-0.32-0.29
HartfordAE2.951.8327.7827.01-1.31-0.84
YaleIvy2.851.7553.8563.880.220.49
FordhamA102.711.7337.5032.93-0.68-0.59
LafayettePat2.771.7233.3325.69-0.92-0.84
FairfieldMAAC2.791.7050.0052.580.000.09
Holy CrossPat2.711.6744.4447.21-0.30-0.09
ArizonaP122.791.6788.2482.532.141.09
Santa ClaraWCC2.791.6747.0644.88-0.16-0.17
Boston CollegeACC2.791.6747.0632.58-0.16-0.58
Northern ColoradoBSky2.781.6728.5739.97-1.19-0.33
HofstraCAA2.631.6147.0647.03-0.15-0.10
Norfolk St.MEAC2.631.6120.0037.13-1.58-0.42
LehighPat0.310.3056.2566.290.040.10
BucknellPat0.400.3068.4271.170.150.13
Loyola MDPat0.240.2750.0047.080.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.300.2521.4323.21-0.17-0.13
ArmyPat0.240.2541.1845.55-0.04-0.02
MaineAE0.290.2421.0521.86-0.17-0.14
AmericanPat0.170.2323.5329.81-0.09-0.09
PennIvy0.410.2342.8648.07-0.06-0.01
BrownIvy0.220.2350.0043.300.00-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.230.2250.0051.540.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.230.2237.5038.15-0.06-0.05
DuquesneA100.310.2250.0042.110.00-0.03
AlbanyAE0.310.2250.0058.110.000.04
Stony BrookAE0.300.2252.9453.520.020.02
HarvardIvy0.290.1958.3361.490.050.04
Boston UniversityPat0.220.1952.9457.140.010.03
NavyPat0.290.1941.1843.68-0.05-0.02
TowsonCAA0.140.1950.0052.220.000.01
New HampshireAE0.140.1953.3357.150.010.03
RiderMAAC0.320.1761.1154.400.070.01
RutgersB100.220.1755.5643.070.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.150.1726.3227.77-0.07-0.07
VermontAE0.240.1673.6877.320.110.09
ManhattanMAAC0.310.1638.8938.40-0.07-0.04
VirginiaACC0.240.1681.2576.190.150.09
UMBCAE0.070.1662.5058.760.020.03
MonmouthMAAC0.160.1473.6873.940.070.07
MassachusettsA100.230.1461.1159.210.050.03
ProvidenceBE0.230.1465.0055.360.070.01
GonzagaWCC0.150.13100.0096.910.150.13
RichmondA100.220.1364.7158.460.060.02
CornellIvy0.150.1220.0024.58-0.09-0.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.160.1125.0031.95-0.08-0.04
NJITASun0.230.1141.1845.41-0.04-0.01
IonaMAAC0.090.1155.5660.550.010.02
Seton HallBE0.080.1166.6758.210.030.02
HamptonMEAC0.070.1126.6740.15-0.03-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.230.1164.7161.890.070.03
ColgatePat0.150.1116.6723.35-0.10-0.06
CanisiusMAAC0.160.1163.1663.750.040.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.1122.2225.46-0.04-0.05
DrexelCAA0.150.1135.2935.38-0.04-0.03
MaristMAAC0.140.1131.5829.26-0.05-0.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.140.1138.8939.13-0.03-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.230.1166.6750.950.080.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.1166.6763.320.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.1178.9570.150.000.04
Notre DameACC0.070.1188.8977.800.060.06
PrincetonIvy0.180.0960.0066.130.040.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.170.0937.5044.66-0.04-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0946.1545.99-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.160.0917.6521.39-0.10-0.05
ButlerBE0.240.0984.2178.360.170.05
DelawareCAA0.170.0829.4127.56-0.07-0.04
LipscombASun0.080.0841.1847.61-0.01-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0856.2559.170.010.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0860.0072.720.020.04
Texas A&MSEC0.160.0856.2553.010.020.01
WashingtonP120.090.0847.0642.27-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.160.0850.0047.550.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.250.0838.8945.72-0.06-0.01
St. John'sBE0.080.0845.0038.60-0.01-0.02
DavidsonA100.150.0856.2555.710.020.01
George MasonA100.000.0864.7156.530.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0868.7570.370.030.03
Washington St.P120.070.0850.0035.490.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.140.0876.4759.430.080.01
SyracuseACC0.220.0857.8952.840.030.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0612.5024.44-0.00-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0637.5043.15-0.02-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.066.6718.58-0.00-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.000.0646.1554.04-0.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.090.0653.8554.520.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0621.4326.05-0.05-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0612.5019.03-0.07-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.000.0653.8564.140.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0688.2486.430.000.04
LongwoodBSth0.080.0626.6725.63-0.04-0.03
MarquetteBE0.080.0666.6761.490.030.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0661.1156.560.000.01
PittsburghACC0.090.0666.6753.190.030.00
UC RiversideBW0.160.0615.3827.54-0.11-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.160.0647.0643.82-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0612.5033.74-0.05-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0614.2929.37-0.05-0.02
BYUWCC0.070.0568.4268.160.030.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0577.7870.850.040.02
ElonCAA0.070.0547.0649.68-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0523.0831.01-0.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0527.7830.30-0.03-0.02
La SalleA100.000.0566.6762.150.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0525.0028.48-0.04-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0550.0048.000.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.070.0578.9569.120.040.02
OhioMAC0.070.0571.4369.670.030.02
PacificWCC0.000.0538.8934.94-0.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.070.0523.5321.79-0.04-0.03
PortlandWCC0.070.0550.0042.270.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0588.2487.480.000.04
San DiegoWCC0.070.0547.0640.37-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0561.1158.650.020.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0588.2484.300.060.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0533.3333.47-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.070.0542.8647.10-0.01-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.070.0564.7167.000.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.150.0550.0058.430.000.01
Arizona St.P120.070.0550.0044.340.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0576.4768.380.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.070.0533.3341.38-0.02-0.01
CaliforniaP120.070.0572.2266.070.030.02
DePaulBE0.070.0542.1130.46-0.01-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0564.7161.910.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0566.6758.160.000.01
OaklandHorz0.070.0570.5972.850.030.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0555.5649.900.00-0.00
StanfordP120.070.0552.9447.220.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.0594.7489.330.000.04
Virginia TechACC0.000.0576.4762.000.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0558.8252.990.010.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0588.2484.630.000.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0533.3330.18-0.02-0.02
USCP120.000.0584.2172.840.000.02
TempleAmer0.090.0352.6353.220.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0337.5036.25-0.02-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0356.2553.650.010.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0317.6529.59-0.05-0.01
DenverSum0.090.0361.1157.830.020.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0333.3333.23-0.03-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0347.0644.16-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0312.5020.01-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0312.5028.47-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0335.7144.07-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0364.7161.460.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0375.0058.080.040.00
MontanaBSky0.090.0352.6360.450.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.090.0329.4138.91-0.04-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0014.42-0.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0358.8257.870.010.00
OklahomaB120.090.0343.7536.61-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.080.0377.7876.220.050.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0394.7489.170.070.02
BradleyMVC0.070.0338.8934.48-0.02-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0375.0076.040.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0375.0076.810.040.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0321.4327.27-0.04-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.070.0368.7569.250.030.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0350.0047.550.00-0.00
IndianaB100.070.0366.6763.930.020.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0388.2487.320.060.02
LibertyBSth0.070.0343.7549.93-0.01-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0311.1123.11-0.05-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0329.4125.22-0.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0350.0040.930.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.070.0357.8957.120.010.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0362.5065.700.020.01
UC DavisBW0.070.0352.9454.860.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0377.7877.110.040.01
VCUA100.000.0377.7873.920.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0328.5731.64-0.03-0.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0364.7154.930.020.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0353.3361.470.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0364.7160.750.000.01
ColoradoP120.070.0352.9454.280.000.00
DukeACC0.070.0377.7873.720.040.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0388.8978.090.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0364.7147.180.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0361.1162.970.020.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0383.3377.690.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0375.0063.150.000.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0363.1657.750.020.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0331.2526.61-0.03-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.070.0355.5654.690.010.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0335.7136.22-0.02-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0384.2180.580.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.070.0326.6732.20-0.03-0.01
OregonP120.000.0388.2482.770.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0317.6515.00-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0381.2572.930.040.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0350.0066.220.000.01
UtahP120.070.0366.6764.720.020.01