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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Sacred Heart

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:316.1
Current RPI:332
Expected SOS:332
Current SOS:337
Current Record:6-14
Expected Record:10-20
Current Conf Record:2-6
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-11
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:316
Expected OOC SOS:342



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14239.00.01%
15-15250.30.07%
14-16265.40.69%
13-17279.33.88%
12-18293.911.17%
11-19307.121.37%
10-20318.426.10%
9-21327.921.35%
8-22335.111.66%
7-23340.43.22%
6-24343.60.47%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sacred Heart.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Holy Cross (303.4)PatH64-69L0%0.0
11-14Boston College (99.6)ACCA73-53L0%0.0
11-18Saint Peter's (240.5)MAACN70-61L0%0.0
11-19Maine (331.6)AEN69-68W100%0.0
11-24Northwestern (127.8)B10A81-50L0%0.0
11-29UMass Lowell (308.7)AEA80-87W100%0.0
12-2St. John's (95.3)BEA90-55L0%0.0
12-5Dartmouth (318.5)IvyH79-73W100%0.0
12-9Lafayette (311.6)PatH62-50W100%0.0
12-11Hartford (253.5)AEA86-72L0%0.0
12-17Binghamton (281.9)AEH48-51L0%0.0
12-22Providence (44.5)BEA89-75L0%0.0
12-29St. Francis NY (282.9)NECH68-73L0%0.0
12-31Fairleigh Dickinson (280.5)NECH66-65W100%0.0
1-4Wagner (142.7)NECA69-63L0%0.0
1-6Bryant (331.0)NECH74-79L0%0.0
1-11Mount St. Mary's (257.3)NECA81-75L0%0.0
1-13St. Francis NY (282.9)NECA52-92W100%0.0
1-18Robert Morris (151.8)NECH60-74L0%0.0
1-20St. Francis PA (156.6)NECH60-73L0%0.0
1-26Robert Morris (151.8)NECA0-019%-9.7
1-28St. Francis PA (156.6)NECA0-018%-10.4
2-1LIU Brooklyn (276.3)NECH0-058%2.1
2-3Central Connecticut (253.1)NECH0-060%2.9
2-8Fairleigh Dickinson (280.5)NECA0-033%-4.7
2-10Central Connecticut (253.1)NECA0-038%-3.5
2-15Wagner (142.7)NECH0-038%-3.5
2-17Mount St. Mary's (257.3)NECH0-054%1.2
2-22Bryant (331.0)NECA0-051%0.4
2-24LIU Brooklyn (276.3)NECA0-035%-4.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sacred Heart's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Sacred Heart's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Sacred Heart.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Sacred HeartNEC26.4926.3829.1733.88-11.04-8.51
Central ConnecticutNEC0.874.4152.3848.370.04-0.14
LIU BrooklynNEC0.804.4040.0041.71-0.16-0.73
BryantNEC3.064.325.0013.18-2.76-3.18
WagnerNEC3.104.3162.5063.240.781.14
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.834.3125.0032.52-1.42-1.51
St. Francis NYNEC5.404.2831.2534.07-2.02-1.36
Robert MorrisNEC2.924.2655.0058.350.290.71
Mount St. Mary'sNEC2.924.2638.8942.89-0.65-0.61
St. Francis PANEC2.904.2550.0056.690.000.57
HartfordAE2.902.1547.3744.00-0.15-0.26
UMass LowellAE2.702.0135.2935.12-0.79-0.60
MaineAE2.781.9511.1115.36-2.16-1.35
Saint Peter'sMAAC2.841.9038.8944.16-0.63-0.22
BinghamtonAE2.701.9038.8937.79-0.60-0.46
Boston CollegeACC2.781.8463.1653.160.730.12
Holy CrossPat2.641.7922.2228.01-1.47-0.79
DartmouthIvy2.691.7823.0827.40-1.45-0.80
St. John'sBE2.561.7744.4440.16-0.28-0.35
LafayettePat2.631.7523.5328.48-1.39-0.75
ProvidenceBE2.631.7568.4259.150.970.32
NorthwesternB102.571.7052.6348.620.14-0.05
Stony BrookAE0.330.3836.8445.21-0.09-0.04
BrownIvy0.390.3750.0045.140.00-0.04
AlbanyAE0.480.3571.4370.240.200.14
New HampshireAE0.350.3533.3340.08-0.12-0.07
AmericanPat0.280.3026.3228.11-0.13-0.13
Loyola MDPat0.490.2922.2228.66-0.27-0.12
VermontAE0.290.2675.0077.850.140.15
Seton HallBE0.280.2675.0067.890.140.09
NJITASun0.290.2438.8942.61-0.06-0.04
LehighPat0.270.2438.8944.75-0.06-0.02
UMBCAE0.200.2355.5655.540.020.03
NavyPat0.330.2360.0055.160.070.02
RiderMAAC0.320.2365.0065.320.100.07
RutgersB100.200.2355.0046.690.02-0.01
ArmyPat0.340.2161.1160.440.080.04
Notre DameACC0.290.2063.1661.020.080.04
GeorgetownBE0.260.2068.4254.070.100.02
SienaMAAC0.180.1928.5729.94-0.08-0.08
DePaulBE0.190.1942.1134.31-0.03-0.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.350.1835.0031.83-0.11-0.06
IonaMAAC0.270.1860.0064.110.050.05
Boston UniversityPat0.200.1850.0053.260.000.01
ColgatePat0.260.1750.0051.030.000.00
MarquetteBE0.130.1768.4260.550.050.04
PrincetonIvy0.140.1652.9460.220.010.03
CornellIvy0.200.1533.3333.23-0.07-0.05
FairfieldMAAC0.140.1538.8944.08-0.03-0.02
Penn St.B100.260.1561.9055.760.060.02
FordhamA100.200.1431.5829.06-0.08-0.06
CanisiusMAAC0.210.1461.9063.140.050.04
LouisvilleACC0.200.1478.9569.790.110.06
VillanovaBE0.140.1494.7490.310.120.11
CreightonBE0.250.1475.0070.700.130.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1365.0056.340.040.02
ColumbiaIvy0.130.1220.0032.25-0.08-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.140.1257.1453.050.020.01
YaleIvy0.060.1241.1847.56-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.070.1270.0065.250.030.04
BucknellPat0.140.1261.9068.020.030.04
ManhattanMAAC0.270.1250.0050.860.000.00
DukeACC0.140.1289.4785.210.110.08
MassachusettsA100.260.1150.0046.810.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.200.1170.0058.090.080.02
La SalleA100.260.1140.0042.69-0.05-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.119.5217.90-0.05-0.07
ButlerBE0.060.1166.6763.070.020.03
XavierBE0.130.1185.7180.080.090.07
PennIvy0.070.0964.7162.720.020.02
HarvardIvy0.240.0937.5046.69-0.06-0.01
MissouriSEC0.140.0966.6763.200.050.02
MaristMAAC0.070.0921.0522.02-0.04-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.0929.4139.63-0.05-0.02
WisconsinB100.070.0950.0046.300.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0840.0030.87-0.01-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.060.0847.0641.41-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.130.0830.0030.99-0.05-0.03
Texas TechB120.190.0878.9571.810.110.04
MinnesotaB100.130.0863.6457.630.030.01
NebraskaB100.190.0866.6759.820.060.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.0870.0071.230.050.03
Ohio St.B100.120.0880.9576.520.080.04
DaytonA100.070.0647.3750.94-0.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.070.0616.6716.16-0.05-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0690.4888.960.060.05
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0650.0048.730.00-0.00
DenverSum0.140.0633.3336.48-0.05-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.0657.8966.260.020.02
George MasonA100.140.0645.0041.30-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0627.7841.03-0.03-0.01
North FloridaASun0.070.0631.5835.15-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.070.0647.0648.41-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.130.0650.0045.870.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.0650.0051.640.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.130.065.8819.35-0.11-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.130.0683.3381.430.090.03
MichiganB100.000.0676.1970.740.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0663.1657.890.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0552.6343.110.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0572.2274.930.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0520.0023.340.00-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0542.1132.470.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.060.0573.6869.640.030.02
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0566.6755.940.020.01
Little RockSB0.060.0522.2225.25-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.060.0565.0058.540.020.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0577.7870.480.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0518.7536.82-0.04-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0555.5656.740.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0541.1839.160.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0563.1657.540.020.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0568.4261.230.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0521.0523.51-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0342.1146.00-0.01-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0317.6519.30-0.04-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.030.009.09-0.07-0.02
ElonCAA0.070.0352.6351.080.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0352.6347.520.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.060.0335.2935.54-0.02-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0350.0047.660.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.060.0327.7827.28-0.03-0.01
Arizona St.P120.070.0378.9576.130.040.01
Chicago St.WAC0.060.030.003.07-0.06-0.03
IllinoisB100.060.0347.3744.27-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.060.0357.8950.710.010.00
IowaB100.000.0347.6244.020.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0385.0083.200.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0337.5045.24-0.02-0.00
OklahomaB120.060.0377.7867.910.030.01
Oregon St.P120.070.0357.8950.840.010.00
PurdueB100.060.0390.4888.370.050.02
UCFAmer0.070.0368.4260.860.020.01
ValparaisoMVC0.060.0347.3748.77-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.060.0371.4374.660.030.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0384.2173.240.040.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0378.9572.990.040.01
North CarolinaACC0.060.0380.0075.060.040.01
RichmondA100.060.0331.5834.36-0.02-0.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0347.3746.92-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0327.7831.71-0.03-0.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0394.7486.140.060.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0368.4257.740.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.060.0342.1140.46-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.060.0370.0061.440.030.01