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Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


Sacred Heart

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:155.6
Current RPI:121
Expected SOS:230
Current SOS:99
Current Record:4-4
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-5
Current OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:115
Expected OOC SOS:73



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-553.00.02%
24-661.40.17%
23-771.60.74%
22-886.52.16%
21-999.85.51%
20-10114.510.00%
19-11129.916.28%
18-12146.517.69%
17-13164.517.55%
16-14183.313.41%
15-15202.98.95%
14-16221.74.59%
13-17241.42.03%
12-18259.60.65%
11-19281.10.21%
10-20293.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sacred Heart.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Hartford (213.4)AEN71-53W100%0.0
11-20UMass Lowell (181.8)AEH54-57L0%0.0
11-23Ohio St. (10.8)B10A106-48L0%0.0
11-26James Madison (120.8)CAAA79-72L0%0.0
11-30Campbell (222.4)BSthH71-62W100%0.0
12-3Colgate (185.2)PatA70-71W100%0.0
12-6Holy Cross (158.8)PatH81-68W100%0.0
12-8Lafayette (91.6)PatA82-81L0%0.0
12-20New Hampshire (160.0)AEH0-058%2.5
12-23Rutgers (159.7)B10A0-041%-2.7
12-28Brown (247.7)IvyA0-052%0.7
12-30Yale (68.3)IvyH0-046%-1.1
1-3St. Francis NY (269.4)NECH0-076%8.4
1-5Central Connecticut (310.7)NECH0-086%13.0
1-8LIU Brooklyn (255.8)NECA0-050%-0.0
1-10St. Francis PA (138.5)NECH0-059%2.7
1-16St. Francis PA (138.5)NECA0-030%-6.1
1-18Robert Morris (271.2)NECA0-056%1.7
1-22Fairleigh Dickinson (259.3)NECH0-080%10.0
1-24Bryant (202.3)NECA0-042%-2.3
1-29Wagner (274.6)NECA0-058%2.3
1-31Mount St. Mary's (261.8)NECH0-084%11.9
2-5Wagner (274.6)NECH0-083%11.1
2-7Bryant (202.3)NECH0-071%6.5
2-12Mount St. Mary's (261.8)NECA0-061%3.2
2-14St. Francis NY (269.4)NECA0-049%-0.4
2-19Robert Morris (271.2)NECH0-081%10.5
2-21Central Connecticut (310.7)NECA0-064%4.2
2-26Fairleigh Dickinson (259.3)NECA0-054%1.2
2-28LIU Brooklyn (255.8)NECH0-077%8.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sacred Heart's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Sacred Heart's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Sacred Heart.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Sacred HeartNEC27.8226.3852.9460.421.645.50
BryantNEC0.004.3428.5747.52-0.00-0.22
Central ConnecticutNEC0.314.3222.2231.56-0.17-1.59
LIU BrooklynNEC0.004.3125.0040.79-0.00-0.79
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.394.3028.5741.95-0.17-0.69
Robert MorrisNEC0.394.2830.0040.34-0.16-0.83
St. Francis NYNEC0.004.2822.2241.00-0.00-0.77
WagnerNEC0.394.2814.2934.11-0.28-1.36
St. Francis PANEC0.004.2750.0063.450.001.15
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.004.2537.5038.81-0.00-0.95
New HampshireAE0.312.0457.1465.400.040.63
LafayettePat6.251.9971.4368.252.680.73
BrownIvy0.451.9340.0033.36-0.09-0.64
ColgatePat7.271.9022.2244.27-4.04-0.22
HartfordAE6.701.9055.5652.700.740.10
RutgersB100.001.9060.0034.130.00-0.60
UMass LowellAE6.561.8450.0052.910.000.11
YaleIvy0.701.8470.0065.210.280.56
Holy CrossPat6.561.8466.6754.662.190.17
Ohio St.B107.611.8188.8984.115.921.23
James MadisonCAA7.271.7566.6759.502.420.33
CampbellBSth7.191.7528.5746.46-3.08-0.12
NJITind1.140.3836.3640.81-0.31-0.07
AlbanyAE0.760.3333.3348.85-0.25-0.01
VermontAE0.310.3350.0059.880.000.06
AmericanPat0.000.3260.0065.060.000.10
ColumbiaIvy0.000.3262.5065.190.000.10
MaineAE0.000.3011.1121.17-0.00-0.17
LehighPat0.000.2942.8652.31-0.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.2977.7868.810.000.11
BinghamtonAE0.310.270.0012.01-0.31-0.20
DartmouthIvy0.660.2644.4447.44-0.07-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.2437.5055.05-0.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.350.2433.3341.58-0.12-0.04
NavyPat0.000.2420.0021.41-0.00-0.14
UMBCAE0.000.2310.0021.05-0.00-0.14
BucknellPat0.000.2340.0036.15-0.00-0.06
Loyola MDPat0.000.2333.3327.49-0.00-0.11
HofstraCAA0.000.2277.7878.200.000.13
PennIvy0.390.2037.5032.89-0.10-0.07
PrincetonIvy0.390.2027.2737.77-0.18-0.05
HarvardIvy0.450.2085.7172.940.320.09
MonmouthMAAC0.000.2044.4456.70-0.000.03
MarylandB100.000.1990.9167.700.000.07
CornellIvy0.660.1755.5648.590.07-0.00
DelawareCAA0.000.170.008.74-0.00-0.14
TowsonCAA0.000.1766.6751.310.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.1590.9171.750.000.06
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.310.1436.3647.27-0.09-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.1428.5731.25-0.00-0.05
RiderMAAC0.310.1445.4552.00-0.030.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1457.1456.210.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1450.0056.370.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1277.7869.420.000.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1241.6744.37-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1255.5640.200.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.1287.5064.520.000.03
LibertyBSth0.000.1225.0035.05-0.00-0.03
High PointBSth0.310.1162.5056.250.080.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.1166.6759.320.000.02
IndianaB100.000.1180.0057.470.000.02
MichiganB100.000.1155.5642.690.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.1190.9154.060.000.01
PurdueB100.000.1172.7363.690.000.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0966.6752.270.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0950.0054.660.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.390.0940.0046.88-0.08-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0888.8963.530.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.390.0850.0044.640.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0850.0053.700.000.01
La SalleA100.310.0850.0049.770.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0872.7365.950.000.03
NorthwesternB100.000.0860.0040.460.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0866.6745.400.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0870.0071.470.000.04
East CarolinaAmer0.310.0837.5038.59-0.08-0.02
IowaB100.000.0872.7362.590.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0666.6741.940.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0642.8650.31-0.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0666.6770.610.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0637.5050.07-0.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.008.71-0.00-0.05
TexasB120.000.0690.0081.760.000.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0614.2945.52-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0628.5747.18-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.450.0666.6757.600.150.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.310.0637.5045.89-0.08-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.350.0662.5073.580.090.03
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0056.780.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0080.830.000.04
DenverSum0.000.0650.0053.980.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0688.8981.120.000.04
ProvidenceBE0.000.0672.7352.880.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0660.0053.790.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0650.0038.030.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.310.0620.0026.68-0.19-0.03
RadfordBSth0.310.0650.0055.940.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0675.0060.600.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3332.03-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0069.340.000.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0644.4451.18-0.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0650.0052.290.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3345.26-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0016.94-0.00-0.04
ToledoMAC0.000.0660.0059.520.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0645.4544.47-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0520.0034.02-0.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0525.0037.61-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0537.5048.14-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0544.4439.99-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0572.7373.120.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0577.7864.890.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0566.6743.830.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0566.6757.570.000.01
VirginiaACC0.310.05100.0085.770.310.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.0557.1456.560.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0590.9188.430.000.04
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0350.0061.650.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0362.5055.120.000.00
DavidsonA100.390.0387.5077.040.290.02
FordhamA100.350.0328.5728.28-0.15-0.01
KansasB120.000.0388.8969.540.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.310.0314.2931.11-0.22-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3331.37-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.390.030.0024.33-0.39-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0377.7865.350.000.01
West VirginiaB120.390.0390.0066.760.310.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0322.2230.96-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0360.0064.870.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0318.1821.69-0.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3332.85-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0371.4361.390.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0039.62-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0360.0049.650.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.310.0360.0054.270.060.00
Ball St.MAC0.310.0328.5736.94-0.13-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6766.690.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.310.03100.0085.210.310.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0322.2237.72-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.310.0355.5647.640.03-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0330.0028.35-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.310.0318.1846.19-0.20-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.310.030.0023.23-0.31-0.01
RichmondA100.310.0350.0057.040.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0380.0069.840.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0355.5653.800.000.00