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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Sacred Heart

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:338.0
Current RPI:338
Expected SOS:318
Current SOS:318
Current Record:5-26
Expected Record:5-26
Current Conf Record:2-14
Expected Conf Record:2-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-16
Current OOC Record:3-12
Expected OOC Record:3-12
Expected OOC RPI:328
Expected OOC SOS:334



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
5-26338.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sacred Heart.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Fairfield (289.0)MAACA67-54L0%0.0
11-13Holy Cross (127.0)PatA122-118L0%0.0
11-16Brown (229.0)IvyH73-85L0%0.0
11-19Yale (147.0)IvyA80-65L0%0.0
11-23Fordham (226.0)A10A73-85W100%0.0
11-26Boston College (207.0)ACCA75-67L0%0.0
12-1Lehigh (236.0)PatA76-64L0%0.0
12-4Hofstra (277.0)CAAA59-73W100%0.0
12-7Lafayette (258.0)PatH79-86L0%0.0
12-15Hartford (234.0)AEH72-84L0%0.0
12-18Santa Clara (210.0)WCCA70-61L0%0.0
12-20UNLV (108.0)MWCA82-50L0%0.0
12-22Radford (240.0)BSthN78-94L0%0.0
12-23Florida A&M (295.0)MEACN70-75L0%0.0
1-4New Hampshire (340.0)AEA53-66W100%0.0
1-9Robert Morris (129.0)NECH70-79L0%0.0
1-11Fairleigh Dickinson (269.0)NECH71-67W100%0.0
1-16Bryant (177.0)NECA85-70L0%0.0
1-18St. Francis NY (190.0)NECA74-71L0%0.0
1-23Robert Morris (129.0)NECA91-65L0%0.0
1-25St. Francis PA (298.0)NECA68-66L0%0.0
1-29St. Francis NY (190.0)NECH78-83L0%0.0
2-2Bryant (177.0)NECH67-76L0%0.0
2-6Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECH60-73L0%0.0
2-8Wagner (218.0)NECH55-62L0%0.0
2-15Central Connecticut (293.0)NECA74-69L0%0.0
2-20Wagner (218.0)NECA74-62L0%0.0
2-22Fairleigh Dickinson (269.0)NECA73-66L0%0.0
2-25LIU Brooklyn (297.0)NECH75-80L0%0.0
2-27Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECA65-72W100%0.0
3-1Central Connecticut (293.0)NECH70-73L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sacred Heart's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Sacred Heart's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Sacred Heart.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Sacred HeartNEC26.1826.1820.2620.26-15.57-15.57
Central ConnecticutNEC4.054.0529.6329.63-1.65-1.65
BryantNEC4.024.0251.7251.720.140.14
Robert MorrisNEC4.024.0259.3859.380.750.75
Mount St. Mary'sNEC4.014.0150.0050.000.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC4.004.0029.6329.63-1.63-1.63
WagnerNEC3.993.9957.1457.140.570.57
St. Francis NYNEC3.943.9451.7251.720.140.14
St. Francis PANEC2.502.5030.0030.00-1.00-1.00
LIU BrooklynNEC2.372.3728.5728.57-1.01-1.01
HartfordAE1.911.9150.0050.000.000.00
LafayettePat1.901.9031.0331.03-0.72-0.72
LehighPat1.871.8741.9441.94-0.30-0.30
YaleIvy1.861.8650.0050.000.000.00
New HampshireAE1.851.8517.8617.86-1.19-1.19
Holy CrossPat1.841.8458.0658.060.300.30
BrownIvy1.811.8150.0050.000.000.00
HofstraCAA1.801.8031.2531.25-0.68-0.68
UNLVMWC1.671.6759.3859.380.310.31
Santa ClaraWCC1.661.6636.6736.67-0.44-0.44
FordhamA101.661.6633.3333.33-0.55-0.55
RadfordBSth1.661.6658.6258.620.290.29
FairfieldMAAC1.661.6619.3519.35-1.02-1.02
Boston CollegeACC1.611.6120.0020.00-0.97-0.97
Florida A&MMEAC1.611.6137.9337.93-0.39-0.39
BinghamtonAE0.290.2923.3323.33-0.15-0.15
AmericanPat0.290.2962.5062.500.070.07
VermontAE0.270.2766.6766.670.090.09
NJITind0.270.2736.0036.00-0.07-0.07
Loyola MDPat0.260.2634.4834.48-0.08-0.08
BucknellPat0.260.2653.3353.330.020.02
HarvardIvy0.250.2586.2186.210.180.18
Stony BrookAE0.240.2468.7568.750.090.09
NavyPat0.230.2327.5927.59-0.10-0.10
PrincetonIvy0.230.2370.3770.370.090.09
ColumbiaIvy0.230.2360.0060.000.050.05
DartmouthIvy0.220.2238.4638.46-0.05-0.05
Boston UniversityPat0.210.2170.5970.590.090.09
MonmouthMAAC0.210.2134.3834.38-0.06-0.06
ArmyPat0.210.2146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.210.2140.0040.00-0.04-0.04
PennIvy0.200.2028.5728.57-0.09-0.09
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.190.1960.0060.000.040.04
AlbanyAE0.190.1956.2556.250.020.02
RiderMAAC0.180.1845.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.180.1845.1645.16-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.180.1827.5927.59-0.08-0.08
DelawareCAA0.170.1773.5373.530.080.08
CornellIvy0.170.173.703.70-0.16-0.16
Norfolk St.MEAC0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
GonzagaWCC0.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
Notre DameACC0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.130.1384.3884.380.090.09
NortheasternCAA0.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
DuquesneA100.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
RutgersAmer0.110.1134.3834.38-0.04-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
Seton HallBE0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
MaineAE0.100.1017.8617.86-0.07-0.07
La SalleA100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
BYUWCC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
RichmondA100.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
CampbellBSth0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
SienaMAAC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
OaklandHorz0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
PurdueB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0821.2121.21-0.05-0.05
ArizonaP120.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
St. BonaventureA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
St. John'sBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0878.5778.570.040.04
PacificWCC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
VillanovaBE0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
TowsonCAA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
DrexelCAA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
BelmontOVC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
LouisvilleAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0787.1087.100.050.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Saint LouisA100.060.0680.6580.650.030.03
IowaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UICHorz0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
LibertyBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.040.04
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VMIBSth0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
IllinoisB100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
SMUAmer0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.023.573.57-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01