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Through games of Feb 13, 2016.


Sacred Heart

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:273.6
Current RPI:279
Expected SOS:312
Current SOS:305
Current Record:9-16
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:8-6
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-11
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:331
Expected OOC SOS:231



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16235.33.42%
12-17253.620.65%
11-18271.138.90%
10-19287.929.68%
9-20302.67.34%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sacred Heart.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Quinnipiac (285.7)MAACN64-76W100%0.0
11-16Yale (51.8)IvyA99-77L0%0.0
11-18UMass Lowell (251.5)AEA87-84L0%0.0
11-21Fairfield (168.2)MAACA83-79L0%0.0
11-25Holy Cross (286.3)PatA69-60L0%0.0
12-2Connecticut (38.6)AmerA82-49L0%0.0
12-5Towson (153.6)CAAA83-61L0%0.0
12-12Lafayette (325.4)PatH86-90L0%0.0
12-14Hartford (320.0)AEA80-71L0%0.0
12-21Northwestern (117.4)B10A103-67L0%0.0
12-28Hofstra (67.0)CAAA80-73L0%0.0
1-2Robert Morris (296.5)NECA65-69W100%0.0
1-4St. Francis PA (234.0)NECA84-80L0%0.0
1-7Fairleigh Dickinson (227.6)NECH68-80L0%0.0
1-9Wagner (196.0)NECH59-76L0%0.0
1-14Central Connecticut (350.8)NECA78-80W100%0.0
1-16St. Francis NY (283.8)NECA85-67L0%0.0
1-21Mount St. Mary's (226.5)NECH76-71W100%0.0
1-24Wagner (196.0)NECA58-67W100%0.0
1-27LIU Brooklyn (275.3)NECA92-84L0%0.0
1-30Bryant (323.1)NECH72-71W100%0.0
2-4St. Francis NY (283.8)NECH74-70W100%0.0
2-6LIU Brooklyn (275.3)NECH98-90W100%0.0
2-11Mount St. Mary's (226.5)NECA66-61L0%0.0
2-13Central Connecticut (350.8)NECH87-52W100%0.0
2-18Bryant (323.1)NECA0-056%1.6
2-20Fairleigh Dickinson (227.6)NECA0-030%-5.6
2-25Robert Morris (296.5)NECH0-064%3.9
2-27St. Francis PA (234.0)NECA0-032%-5.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sacred Heart's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Sacred Heart's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Sacred Heart.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Sacred HeartNEC26.4126.3840.5942.97-4.97-3.71
Central ConnecticutNEC4.854.5113.0413.39-3.58-3.30
St. Francis NYNEC4.764.4539.1343.06-1.04-0.62
WagnerNEC4.834.4463.6464.871.321.32
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.884.4447.8348.27-0.13-0.15
BryantNEC2.854.4224.0023.84-1.48-2.31
LIU BrooklynNEC4.724.4250.0051.510.000.13
Mount St. Mary'sNEC4.734.4044.0047.08-0.57-0.26
Robert MorrisNEC2.804.4030.7731.75-1.08-1.60
St. Francis PANEC2.794.3847.8347.96-0.12-0.18
UMass LowellAE2.412.0234.7835.39-0.73-0.59
HartfordAE2.371.9920.8321.94-1.38-1.12
FairfieldMAAC2.251.9054.1754.120.190.16
LafayettePat2.211.9016.6717.98-1.47-1.22
YaleIvy2.201.9075.0075.381.100.96
TowsonCAA2.081.8562.5058.750.520.32
Holy CrossPat2.161.8439.1337.43-0.47-0.46
QuinnipiacMAAC2.161.8434.7834.63-0.66-0.57
ConnecticutAmer2.121.8170.8369.650.880.71
NorthwesternB102.081.7864.0061.540.580.41
HofstraCAA2.041.7866.6766.190.680.58
MaineAE0.490.3932.0031.16-0.18-0.15
AlbanyAE0.330.3373.0873.780.150.16
LehighPat0.280.3239.1342.78-0.06-0.05
Loyola MDPat0.400.3232.0033.46-0.14-0.11
AmericanPat0.280.3028.0030.05-0.12-0.12
BinghamtonAE0.320.3024.0026.42-0.17-0.14
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.280.2943.4844.13-0.04-0.03
BucknellPat0.270.2650.0052.720.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.250.2433.3332.89-0.08-0.08
ArmyPat0.200.2456.0055.430.020.03
New HampshireAE0.200.2359.0956.880.040.03
NJITASun0.250.2157.6957.310.040.03
BrownIvy0.260.2128.5728.84-0.11-0.09
PennIvy0.200.2140.0039.62-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.290.2138.4641.33-0.07-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.250.2123.0823.86-0.13-0.11
UMBCAE0.200.2023.0825.88-0.11-0.10
SienaMAAC0.160.2066.6766.950.050.07
MarylandB100.230.2084.0080.600.160.12
VermontAE0.210.1852.0054.840.010.02
DelawareCAA0.200.1824.0024.18-0.10-0.09
FordhamA100.200.1850.0050.420.000.00
RutgersB100.160.1820.8319.90-0.10-0.11
Boston UniversityPat0.200.1857.6958.190.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.250.1880.7781.920.150.11
ColumbiaIvy0.160.1865.2264.150.050.05
ElonCAA0.190.1748.0048.33-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.190.1769.2369.940.070.07
ManhattanMAAC0.200.1747.8345.05-0.01-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.130.1675.0077.280.060.08
HarvardIvy0.130.1536.3638.01-0.03-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.200.1582.6183.030.130.10
Boston CollegeACC0.200.1529.1726.62-0.08-0.07
CanisiusMAAC0.160.1542.3144.54-0.03-0.02
MaristMAAC0.120.1520.8322.46-0.07-0.08
Ohio St.B100.190.1461.5455.940.040.02
CornellIvy0.130.1238.1036.77-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.160.1224.0023.69-0.08-0.06
ColgatePat0.120.1245.8347.12-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1262.5060.760.030.03
DrexelCAA0.160.1212.5015.98-0.12-0.08
NavyPat0.160.1265.3865.340.050.04
NortheasternCAA0.120.1250.0049.050.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.1278.2675.550.050.06
William & MaryCAA0.160.1265.2264.480.050.03
DuquesneA100.080.1260.8756.210.020.01
TempleAmer0.120.1265.2262.390.040.03
IonaMAAC0.120.1258.3358.480.020.02
MichiganB100.080.1172.0068.710.030.04
CincinnatiAmer0.080.1173.0871.580.040.05
Notre DameACC0.080.0972.0070.180.040.04
George MasonA100.120.0936.0035.97-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.0918.1825.29-0.08-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0928.0031.38-0.04-0.03
DukeACC0.090.0976.0073.090.040.04
La SalleA100.120.0918.1820.09-0.08-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.0928.5735.02-0.05-0.03
SMUAmer0.050.0987.5084.290.040.06
LouisvilleACC0.120.0976.0073.910.060.04
North FloridaASun0.120.0960.0061.790.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.080.0973.0870.170.040.03
Saint LouisA100.120.0933.3331.88-0.04-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.080.0953.8551.690.010.00
FurmanSC0.110.0857.6956.200.020.01
GonzagaWCC0.110.0876.0076.260.060.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0819.2321.27-0.05-0.05
USCP120.090.0675.0071.170.040.03
Kent St.MAC0.040.0662.5059.800.010.01
Seton HallBE0.080.0670.8368.070.030.02
VillanovaBE0.040.0688.0086.620.030.05
IllinoisB100.090.0644.0043.45-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.080.0641.6743.11-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0655.5652.580.010.00
MassachusettsA100.080.0643.4842.31-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0647.6250.56-0.000.00
LibertyBSth0.080.0637.5038.73-0.02-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.040.0613.0418.03-0.03-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.080.0683.3378.350.050.03
Air ForceMWC0.040.0641.6737.79-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0660.8757.660.010.01
HoustonAmer0.040.0672.0068.870.020.02
MemphisAmer0.080.0656.0056.660.010.01
MinnesotaB100.080.0625.0027.21-0.04-0.03
NebraskaB100.040.0653.8551.650.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.040.0666.6768.770.010.02
OaklandHorz0.040.0666.6766.290.010.02
Penn St.B100.040.0648.0045.86-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0666.6764.740.010.02
TulaneAmer0.080.0638.4637.32-0.02-0.01
TulsaAmer0.080.0664.0064.280.020.02
UCFAmer0.040.0647.8343.65-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.070.0660.0059.040.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0629.1730.14-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.040.0324.0027.56-0.02-0.01
BradleyMVC0.040.0312.0012.00-0.03-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0318.1823.04-0.03-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0325.0026.16-0.02-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.040.0366.6763.280.010.01
George WashingtonA100.040.0372.0070.430.020.01
Indiana St.MVC0.040.0348.0047.35-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.040.0383.3381.420.030.02
MississippiSEC0.040.0364.0061.040.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.040.0348.0043.71-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.040.0360.8757.820.010.00
Rhode IslandA100.040.0356.0055.660.010.00
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0383.3378.690.030.02
St. BonaventureA100.040.0373.9172.090.020.01
Chicago St.WAC0.040.034.177.54-0.04-0.02
DePaulBE0.040.0333.3333.86-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.040.0340.0039.42-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.040.0380.0075.820.020.01
IowaB100.040.0379.1778.810.020.02
Michigan St.B100.040.0380.0081.510.020.02
MissouriSEC0.040.0336.0032.69-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.040.0326.3232.38-0.02-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0376.9275.980.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0320.0022.33-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0320.0019.75-0.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.040.0368.0064.130.010.01
TexasB120.040.0364.0061.080.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.040.0352.0048.970.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.040.0364.0060.000.010.01