live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Sacred Heart

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:304.0
Current RPI:304
Expected SOS:331
Current SOS:331
Current Record:13-19
Expected Record:13-19
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-12
Current OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:269
Expected OOC SOS:293



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-19304.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sacred Heart.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Fairfield (180.0)MAACA85-63L0%0.0
11-15Hofstra (196.0)CAAH90-86W100%0.0
11-18Arizona (2.0)P12A95-65L0%0.0
11-21Santa Clara (126.0)WCCA84-74L0%0.0
11-24Northern Colorado (286.0)BSkyN81-59L0%0.0
11-25Norfolk St. (254.0)MEACN61-59W100%0.0
11-30Fordham (215.0)A10A70-71W100%0.0
12-3Hartford (327.0)AEH79-87L0%0.0
12-6UMass Lowell (309.0)AEH91-82W100%0.0
12-8Yale (128.0)IvyH52-66L0%0.0
12-11Lafayette (321.0)PatA61-85W100%0.0
12-18Boston College (219.0)ACCA82-75L0%0.0
12-21Holy Cross (204.0)PatH67-72L0%0.0
12-29Robert Morris (237.0)NECH67-78L0%0.0
12-31St. Francis PA (258.0)NECH67-87L0%0.0
1-5Central Connecticut (344.0)NECA62-64W100%0.0
1-7Wagner (244.0)NECA75-64L0%0.0
1-12St. Francis NY (348.0)NECA75-87W100%0.0
1-14Bryant (285.0)NECA110-112W100%0.0
1-19Mount St. Mary's (151.0)NECH75-86L0%0.0
1-21Wagner (244.0)NECH62-67L0%0.0
1-26LIU Brooklyn (224.0)NECH57-60L0%0.0
1-28Mount St. Mary's (151.0)NECA67-53L0%0.0
2-2Fairleigh Dickinson (273.0)NECA70-74W100%0.0
2-4Bryant (285.0)NECH73-70W100%0.0
2-9St. Francis NY (348.0)NECH80-65W100%0.0
2-11Central Connecticut (344.0)NECH77-62W100%0.0
2-16Fairleigh Dickinson (273.0)NECH91-81W100%0.0
2-18LIU Brooklyn (224.0)NECA83-82L0%0.0
2-23St. Francis PA (258.0)NECA73-64L0%0.0
2-25Robert Morris (237.0)NECA79-72L0%0.0
3-1Mount St. Mary's (151.0)NECA76-73L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sacred Heart's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Sacred Heart's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Sacred Heart.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Sacred HeartNEC26.3626.3641.6741.67-4.39-4.39
Mount St. Mary'sNEC5.615.6151.6151.610.180.18
St. Francis PANEC4.164.1644.8344.83-0.43-0.43
WagnerNEC4.144.1448.1548.15-0.15-0.15
Robert MorrisNEC4.114.1138.7138.71-0.93-0.93
LIU BrooklynNEC4.084.0858.6258.620.700.70
Central ConnecticutNEC4.084.0822.2222.22-2.27-2.27
BryantNEC4.064.0637.9337.93-0.98-0.98
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC4.064.0637.0437.04-1.05-1.05
St. Francis NYNEC4.014.0110.7110.71-3.15-3.15
HartfordAE1.771.7725.8125.81-0.86-0.86
UMass LowellAE1.771.7734.4834.48-0.55-0.55
YaleIvy1.691.6959.2659.260.310.31
FordhamA101.671.6740.0040.00-0.33-0.33
LafayettePat1.661.6628.5728.57-0.71-0.71
FairfieldMAAC1.641.6451.7251.720.060.06
Holy CrossPat1.621.6245.1645.16-0.16-0.16
ArizonaP121.621.6287.8887.881.221.22
Santa ClaraWCC1.611.6148.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Boston CollegeACC1.611.6125.8125.81-0.78-0.78
Northern ColoradoBSky1.611.6130.7730.77-0.62-0.62
HofstraCAA1.561.5646.6746.67-0.10-0.10
Norfolk St.MEAC1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.300.3046.6746.67-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.300.3076.4776.470.160.16
LehighPat0.300.3061.2961.290.070.07
ArmyPat0.230.2338.7138.71-0.05-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.230.2325.9325.93-0.11-0.11
AlbanyAE0.230.2360.6160.610.050.05
MaineAE0.230.2319.3519.35-0.14-0.14
BrownIvy0.210.2139.2939.29-0.05-0.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.210.2159.3859.380.040.04
PennIvy0.210.2146.4346.43-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.210.2161.5461.540.050.05
AmericanPat0.210.2126.6726.67-0.10-0.10
BinghamtonAE0.210.2131.0331.03-0.08-0.08
DuquesneA100.200.2031.2531.25-0.08-0.08
NavyPat0.200.2048.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.200.2058.0658.060.030.03
Boston UniversityPat0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
TowsonCAA0.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
New HampshireAE0.180.1858.6258.620.030.03
UMBCAE0.170.1757.1457.140.020.02
RutgersB100.160.1643.7543.75-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.150.1531.2531.25-0.06-0.06
VermontAE0.150.1584.8584.850.110.11
NiagaraMAAC0.150.1530.3030.30-0.06-0.06
VirginiaACC0.150.1568.7568.750.060.06
GonzagaWCC0.150.1596.9796.970.140.14
MonmouthMAAC0.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
ProvidenceBE0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
MassachusettsA100.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
George MasonA100.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
MinnesotaB100.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
PrincetonIvy0.110.1178.5778.570.060.06
CornellIvy0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Seton HallBE0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
IonaMAAC0.110.1164.7164.710.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
DelawareCAA0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
NJITASun0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
SienaMAAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
ColgatePat0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
NortheasternCAA0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
HamptonMEAC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
LipscombASun0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
St. John'sBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
WashingtonP120.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
SyracuseACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Kansas St.B120.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Washington St.P120.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
MichiganB100.070.0768.5768.570.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
UCLAP120.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
San DiegoWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
DukeACC0.020.0277.1477.140.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
UC DavisBW0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Oregon St.P120.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
UtahP120.020.0262.0762.070.010.01