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Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


Sacred Heart

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:307.0
Current RPI:83
Expected SOS:311
Current SOS:18
Current Record:1-3
Expected Record:10-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-13
Current OOC Record:1-3
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:307
Expected OOC SOS:212



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-10138.00.01%
19-11202.00.01%
18-12178.90.07%
17-13197.90.32%
16-14217.50.88%
15-15236.22.05%
14-16255.44.34%
13-17273.28.41%
12-18288.713.02%
11-19302.816.17%
10-20315.117.34%
9-21324.914.52%
8-22332.611.56%
7-23338.86.57%
6-24342.92.98%
5-25345.81.24%
4-26348.40.45%
3-27350.00.04%
2-28351.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sacred Heart.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Hartford (204.3)AEN71-53W100%0.0
11-20UMass Lowell (250.1)AEH54-57L0%0.0
11-23Ohio St. (33.4)B10A106-48L0%0.0
11-26James Madison (223.0)CAAA79-72L0%0.0
11-30Campbell (277.4)BSthH0-055%1.6
12-3Colgate (213.4)PatA0-019%-10.3
12-6Holy Cross (94.9)PatH0-021%-9.7
12-8Lafayette (142.1)PatA0-012%-14.1
12-20New Hampshire (256.4)AEH0-047%-0.9
12-23Rutgers (231.6)B10A0-022%-9.2
12-28Brown (251.5)IvyA0-023%-8.9
12-30Yale (60.5)IvyH0-013%-13.8
1-3St. Francis NY (235.9)NECH0-040%-3.1
1-5Central Connecticut (321.5)NECH0-062%3.6
1-8LIU Brooklyn (252.3)NECA0-024%-8.6
1-10St. Francis PA (245.7)NECH0-048%-0.7
1-16St. Francis PA (245.7)NECA0-026%-7.9
1-18Robert Morris (285.4)NECA0-032%-5.5
1-22Fairleigh Dickinson (284.9)NECH0-057%2.0
1-24Bryant (212.6)NECA0-023%-9.0
1-29Wagner (241.8)NECA0-025%-8.0
1-31Mount St. Mary's (281.1)NECH0-058%2.4
2-5Wagner (241.8)NECH0-047%-0.8
2-7Bryant (212.6)NECH0-044%-1.8
2-12Mount St. Mary's (281.1)NECA0-034%-4.8
2-14St. Francis NY (235.9)NECA0-020%-10.3
2-19Robert Morris (285.4)NECH0-056%1.7
2-21Central Connecticut (321.5)NECA0-038%-3.5
2-26Fairleigh Dickinson (284.9)NECA0-033%-5.2
2-28LIU Brooklyn (252.3)NECH0-045%-1.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sacred Heart's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Sacred Heart's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Sacred Heart.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Sacred HeartNEC30.3126.3927.7833.41-13.47-8.76
BryantNEC0.004.3533.3345.13-0.00-0.42
Central ConnecticutNEC0.004.320.0029.48-0.00-1.78
LIU BrooklynNEC0.004.320.0047.93-0.00-0.18
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.004.3133.3338.19-0.00-1.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.004.2920.0036.95-0.00-1.12
St. Francis NYNEC0.004.290.0050.60-0.000.05
WagnerNEC0.004.280.0043.65-0.00-0.54
St. Francis PANEC0.004.2825.0044.83-0.00-0.44
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.004.2625.0035.39-0.00-1.24
New HampshireAE0.002.0433.3345.42-0.00-0.19
LafayettePat0.001.9960.0059.040.000.36
BrownIvy0.001.9320.0036.56-0.00-0.52
ColgatePat1.251.9020.0037.58-0.75-0.47
HartfordAE12.501.90100.0053.7112.500.14
RutgersB100.001.9050.0022.680.00-1.04
UMass LowellAE14.061.8450.0039.980.00-0.37
YaleIvy0.001.8480.0069.670.000.73
Holy CrossPat0.001.84100.0065.580.000.57
Ohio St.B1013.751.81100.0073.9113.750.86
James MadisonCAA12.501.7575.0045.166.25-0.17
CampbellBSth1.561.750.0034.19-1.56-0.55
NJITind1.250.3820.0029.79-0.75-0.15
AlbanyAE0.000.3350.0063.440.000.09
VermontAE0.000.3350.0065.840.000.10
AmericanPat0.000.3266.6759.500.000.06
ColumbiaIvy0.000.3275.0064.980.000.10
MaineAE0.000.300.0019.27-0.00-0.18
LehighPat0.000.2920.0042.40-0.00-0.04
ArmyPat0.000.29100.0069.410.000.11
BinghamtonAE0.000.270.0022.97-0.00-0.14
DartmouthIvy1.250.260.0036.14-1.25-0.07
Stony BrookAE0.000.2450.0065.760.000.08
Boston UniversityPat0.000.2425.0053.31-0.000.02
NavyPat0.000.2420.0029.93-0.00-0.09
UMBCAE0.000.230.0027.57-0.00-0.11
BucknellPat0.000.2333.3335.82-0.00-0.07
Loyola MDPat0.000.2340.0031.26-0.00-0.09
HofstraCAA0.000.2260.0068.220.000.08
PennIvy0.000.210.0023.29-0.00-0.11
PrincetonIvy0.000.2125.0037.52-0.00-0.05
HarvardIvy0.000.2166.6773.440.000.10
MonmouthMAAC0.000.2050.0052.150.000.01
MarylandB100.000.20100.0071.860.000.09
CornellIvy0.000.1742.8640.94-0.00-0.03
DelawareCAA0.000.170.0019.74-0.00-0.10
TowsonCAA0.000.1780.0057.990.000.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.250.1520.0041.72-0.75-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.15100.0054.340.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.1583.3369.220.000.06
RiderMAAC0.000.1450.0046.840.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1425.0048.11-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1475.0069.010.000.05
CincinnatiAmer0.000.12100.0061.080.000.03
LibertyBSth0.000.1220.0029.02-0.00-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1214.2931.08-0.00-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1260.0039.490.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.12100.0058.520.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.11100.0061.350.000.03
High PointBSth0.000.1175.0055.980.000.01
IndianaB100.000.1180.0057.110.000.02
MichiganB100.000.1175.0066.610.000.04
Penn St.B100.000.1183.3348.410.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.1183.3368.600.000.04
PittsburghACC0.000.0960.0057.880.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0925.0039.67-0.00-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0950.0042.970.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0960.0050.770.000.00
La SalleA100.000.09100.0056.620.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.09100.0064.150.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.08100.0065.110.000.03
NorthwesternB100.000.0883.3339.590.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0875.0067.420.000.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0840.0053.46-0.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0866.6747.140.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.0866.6765.830.000.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0825.0035.38-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0640.0038.08-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0666.6753.550.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0650.0073.640.000.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0640.0057.50-0.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.0022.89-0.00-0.03
Rhode IslandA101.250.06100.0060.351.250.01
TexasB120.000.06100.0080.270.000.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0625.0052.61-0.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0633.3353.30-0.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0680.0068.140.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0066.690.000.02
QuinnipiacMAAC1.250.0650.0055.700.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0066.190.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0075.690.000.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0029.060.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0064.180.000.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0625.0047.86-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0650.0060.810.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0038.94-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0680.0074.520.000.03
TempleAmer0.000.0660.0050.320.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0640.0060.24-0.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0666.6751.600.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0650.0040.550.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth1.250.0620.0022.02-0.75-0.03
RadfordBSth1.250.0625.0046.64-0.62-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0053.810.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0575.0072.040.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0550.0055.290.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0575.0053.300.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.05100.0086.460.000.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0520.0031.47-0.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0520.0036.68-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0540.0039.53-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0540.0032.41-0.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0580.0066.690.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0575.0056.120.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0350.0052.730.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6753.510.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0030.92-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0366.6761.870.000.01
FordhamA101.250.030.0026.01-1.25-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0375.0043.690.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.0366.6759.280.000.01
NiagaraMAAC1.250.0333.3330.18-0.42-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3335.00-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0034.53-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0068.260.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0069.720.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0350.0064.920.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0320.0031.23-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0375.0066.110.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0340.0047.86-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0053.110.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0375.0069.280.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0048.57-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3346.13-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0079.150.000.02
MarquetteBE1.560.0350.0037.010.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0340.0026.51-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0333.3359.02-0.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0027.68-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0064.050.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0375.0055.290.000.00
VirginiaACC1.250.03100.0073.601.250.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0366.6756.860.000.00