Sacred Heart

Conference:	NEC
Expected RPI:	241.2
Current RPI:	238
Expected SOS:	285
Current SOS:	267
Current Record:	11-14
Expected Record:	14-17
Current Conf Record:	5-7
Expected Conf Record:	8-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	1.18%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-7
Current OOC Record:	6-7
Expected OOC Record:	6-7
Expected OOC RPI:	241
Expected OOC SOS:	298

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-14	200.7	1.07%
16-15	215.5	9.17%
15-16	229.7	28.69%
14-17	244.5	37.16%
13-18	259.2	19.63%
12-19	271.8	3.99%
11-20	282.2	0.28%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sacred Heart.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Hartford (324.7)	AE	N	50-70	W	100%	0.0
11-15	Stony Brook (149.6)	AE	H	74-63	W	100%	0.0
11-17	Rutgers (141.4)	BE	A	91-75	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Richmond (135.9)	A10	A	83-58	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Hampton (310.6)	MEAC	N	71-78	W	100%	0.0
11-23	Lipscomb (209.0)	ASun	N	77-79	L	0%	0.0
11-27	Brown (305.8)	Ivy	H	77-64	W	100%	0.0
12-1	Quinnipiac (174.4)	NEC	A	55-68	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Central Connecticut (234.8)	NEC	A	82-80	L	0%	0.0
12-5	Yale (117.1)	Ivy	H	71-73	L	0%	0.0
12-9	Holy Cross (227.0)	Pat	A	71-60	L	0%	0.0
12-11	Lafayette (209.9)	Pat	H	84-79	W	100%	0.0
12-19	Notre Dame (66.7)	BE	A	106-65	L	0%	0.0
12-21	Boston College (245.6)	ACC	A	83-73	L	0%	0.0
12-29	New Hampshire (318.0)	AE	A	59-77	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Long Island (106.7)	NEC	H	81-87	L	0%	0.0
1-7	St. Francis NY (188.0)	NEC	H	84-99	L	0%	0.0
1-12	St. Francis PA (303.2)	NEC	A	68-71	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Robert Morris (110.5)	NEC	A	70-67	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Quinnipiac (174.4)	NEC	H	78-75	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Central Connecticut (234.8)	NEC	H	62-61	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Wagner (83.3)	NEC	H	54-73	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Mount St. Mary's (289.3)	NEC	H	80-81	L	0%	0.0
2-2	Monmouth (274.7)	NEC	A	63-56	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Fairleigh Dickinson (323.6)	NEC	A	57-66	W	100%	0.0
2-8	Bryant (334.5)	NEC	A	0-0		70%	5.7
2-11	Bryant (334.5)	NEC	H	0-0		87%	12.2
2-16	Long Island (106.7)	NEC	A	0-0		21%	-8.7
2-18	St. Francis NY (188.0)	NEC	A	0-0		31%	-5.4
2-23	St. Francis PA (303.2)	NEC	H	0-0		80%	9.1
2-25	Robert Morris (110.5)	NEC	H	0-0		33%	-4.7

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sacred Heart's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Sacred Heart's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Sacred Heart.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Sacred Heart	NEC	26.28	26.24	45.30	46.95	-2.47	-1.60
Bryant	NEC	0.88	4.05	8.33	10.07	-0.74	-3.24
Quinnipiac	NEC	4.44	4.05	61.90	61.37	1.06	0.92
Central Connecticut	NEC	4.48	4.02	45.00	45.36	-0.45	-0.37
Robert Morris	NEC	2.56	3.97	66.67	69.14	0.85	1.52
St. Francis PA	NEC	2.56	3.96	22.73	23.69	-1.40	-2.09
St. Francis NY	NEC	2.61	3.94	54.55	53.86	0.24	0.30
Long Island	NEC	2.56	3.91	69.57	69.75	1.00	1.55
Monmouth	NEC	2.65	2.46	25.00	26.50	-1.32	-1.16
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	2.61	2.43	9.09	12.57	-2.13	-1.82
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	2.56	2.41	22.73	26.06	-1.39	-1.15
Wagner	NEC	2.56	2.41	81.82	84.03	1.63	1.64
Hartford	AE	2.51	1.96	21.74	23.62	-1.42	-1.03
Brown	Ivy	2.37	1.93	28.57	24.60	-1.02	-0.98
Lafayette	Pat	2.30	1.92	45.45	44.51	-0.21	-0.21
Yale	Ivy	2.36	1.89	70.59	61.75	0.97	0.44
New Hampshire	AE	2.31	1.81	35.00	39.20	-0.69	-0.39
Stony Brook	AE	2.27	1.81	71.43	71.63	0.97	0.78
Holy Cross	Pat	2.23	1.78	38.10	39.88	-0.53	-0.36
Rutgers	BE	2.21	1.77	47.83	45.10	-0.10	-0.17
Boston College	ACC	2.14	1.76	27.27	23.88	-0.97	-0.92
Notre Dame	BE	2.04	1.72	63.64	61.43	0.56	0.39
Hampton	MEAC	2.12	1.72	36.36	38.46	-0.58	-0.40
Richmond	A10	2.09	1.67	47.83	46.76	-0.09	-0.11
Lipscomb	ASun	2.00	1.61	40.91	41.89	-0.36	-0.26
Vermont	AE	0.45	0.34	61.54	63.84	0.10	0.10
Albany	AE	0.44	0.34	57.69	58.54	0.07	0.06
Lehigh	Pat	0.35	0.33	73.91	74.94	0.17	0.17
American	Pat	0.39	0.33	65.22	63.79	0.12	0.09
Army	Pat	0.28	0.31	40.91	41.68	-0.05	-0.05
Colgate	Pat	0.31	0.31	30.43	29.49	-0.12	-0.13
Columbia	Ivy	0.22	0.28	55.00	54.81	0.02	0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.28	0.28	14.29	17.12	-0.20	-0.18
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.31	0.26	13.04	14.47	-0.23	-0.18
Boston University	AE	0.31	0.26	50.00	53.83	0.00	0.02
Maine	AE	0.27	0.26	47.62	48.01	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.27	0.25	52.00	48.78	0.01	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.23	0.22	54.55	56.80	0.02	0.03
Navy	Pat	0.30	0.22	9.52	13.17	-0.25	-0.16
Harvard	Ivy	0.23	0.20	90.48	87.91	0.19	0.15
Princeton	Ivy	0.23	0.20	47.37	52.90	-0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.26	0.20	36.00	40.36	-0.07	-0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.17	0.19	73.91	75.03	0.08	0.10
La Salle	A10	0.22	0.19	70.83	68.83	0.09	0.07
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.21	0.19	33.33	38.39	-0.07	-0.04
Pittsburgh	BE	0.21	0.19	62.50	59.52	0.05	0.04
Binghamton	AE	0.18	0.18	0.00	4.04	-0.18	-0.16
Massachusetts	A10	0.26	0.17	73.91	68.65	0.13	0.06
Seton Hall	BE	0.14	0.16	65.22	63.65	0.04	0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.21	0.16	41.67	38.63	-0.04	-0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.13	0.16	69.57	70.42	0.05	0.07
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.13	0.16	20.83	23.73	-0.07	-0.08
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.15	36.84	41.47	-0.01	-0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.13	0.14	32.00	35.39	-0.05	-0.04
Connecticut	BE	0.22	0.13	65.22	62.35	0.07	0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.18	0.11	56.52	54.88	0.02	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.19	0.11	20.83	20.61	-0.11	-0.07
Wake Forest	ACC	0.14	0.11	47.83	43.63	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.13	0.11	21.74	25.63	-0.07	-0.05
Rider	MAAC	0.13	0.11	40.00	39.70	-0.03	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.04	0.11	43.48	40.24	-0.01	-0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.08	0.11	52.38	53.29	0.00	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.13	0.11	38.89	41.49	-0.03	-0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.08	0.10	66.67	65.98	0.03	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.14	0.09	63.64	57.79	0.04	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.09	0.08	60.00	59.09	0.02	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.09	0.08	80.00	78.08	0.05	0.05
Longwood	ind	0.13	0.08	28.57	25.79	-0.06	-0.04
Maryland	ACC	0.09	0.08	60.87	53.44	0.02	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.13	0.08	79.17	74.20	0.08	0.04
Marquette	BE	0.09	0.08	80.00	76.67	0.05	0.04
Memphis	CUSA	0.08	0.08	69.57	71.58	0.03	0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	79.17	80.14	0.05	0.05
Miami FL	ACC	0.09	0.08	66.67	63.50	0.03	0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.08	0.08	60.00	58.30	0.02	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	56.52	55.22	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.13	0.08	40.91	34.45	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.17	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	59.09	56.38	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.04	0.08	45.83	45.52	-0.00	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.09	0.06	78.26	74.29	0.05	0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.09	0.06	34.78	33.44	-0.03	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.09	0.06	77.27	73.50	0.05	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.10	0.06	79.17	76.62	0.06	0.03
Indiana	B10	0.09	0.06	75.00	75.73	0.04	0.03
Belmont	ASun	0.09	0.06	70.83	73.74	0.04	0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.04	0.06	79.17	78.05	0.03	0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.04	0.06	50.00	52.04	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.04	0.06	47.83	47.36	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.09	0.06	20.83	23.61	-0.05	-0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.04	0.06	72.00	72.22	0.02	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.09	0.06	48.00	48.07	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.04	0.06	56.52	56.80	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.04	0.06	30.43	29.57	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.04	0.06	8.33	10.90	-0.04	-0.04
Delaware	CAA	0.04	0.05	47.83	50.66	-0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.04	0.05	42.11	45.89	-0.01	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.09	0.05	54.55	58.39	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.09	0.05	26.32	29.64	-0.04	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.09	0.05	69.57	61.84	0.03	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.09	0.05	62.50	62.07	0.02	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.05	69.57	65.88	0.03	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.00	0.05	66.67	68.55	0.00	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.09	0.05	42.11	49.86	-0.01	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.04	0.05	39.13	42.16	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.09	0.05	23.81	33.67	-0.05	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.09	0.05	70.83	64.53	0.04	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.04	0.05	8.70	13.12	-0.03	-0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.00	0.05	85.71	78.11	0.00	0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.00	0.05	45.45	44.27	-0.00	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.04	0.05	22.22	27.56	-0.02	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.00	0.05	0.00	5.31	-0.00	-0.05
George Mason	CAA	0.09	0.05	76.00	72.48	0.04	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.09	0.05	27.27	27.33	-0.04	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.05	86.96	83.30	0.06	0.04
St. Louis	A10	0.04	0.05	77.27	77.70	0.02	0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.09	0.05	12.50	13.42	-0.06	-0.04
Charlotte	A10	0.04	0.05	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.09	0.05	69.57	65.37	0.03	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.04	0.05	82.61	81.41	0.03	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.04	0.05	47.83	42.19	-0.00	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.04	0.05	34.78	32.05	-0.01	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.04	0.05	80.95	77.45	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.04	0.05	54.17	54.76	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.04	0.05	81.82	77.18	0.03	0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.04	0.05	62.50	62.42	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.09	0.05	54.55	48.54	0.01	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.04	0.05	95.83	92.00	0.04	0.04
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.03	33.33	34.54	-0.02	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.00	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.00	0.03	4.00	5.27	-0.00	-0.03
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.03	58.33	59.92	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.76	0.01	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.04	0.03	47.37	42.13	-0.00	-0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.04	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.04	0.03	71.43	66.55	0.02	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.04	0.03	34.78	38.74	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.04	0.03	70.83	66.50	0.02	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.04	0.03	70.83	62.75	0.02	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.04	0.03	100.00	94.58	0.04	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.04	0.03	28.57	26.31	-0.02	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.04	0.03	43.48	45.03	-0.01	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.04	0.03	4.35	9.74	-0.04	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.04	0.03	60.87	59.85	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.00	0.03	36.36	40.96	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.04	0.03	47.83	45.51	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.00	0.03	82.61	79.93	0.00	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.00	0.03	22.73	24.64	-0.00	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.00	0.03	72.73	71.57	0.00	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.04	0.03	31.82	32.81	-0.02	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.03	54.17	49.41	0.00	-0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.03	68.00	69.08	0.02	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.00	0.03	19.05	19.39	-0.00	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.04	0.03	81.82	81.02	0.03	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.04	0.03	14.29	16.80	-0.03	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.04	0.03	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.04	0.03	54.55	57.71	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.04	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.04	0.03	77.27	77.37	0.02	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.00	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.00	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.04	0.03	47.83	48.88	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.04	0.03	45.45	41.17	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.04	0.03	81.82	81.50	0.03	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.04	0.03	59.09	57.27	0.01	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.04	0.03	52.17	58.49	0.00	0.00
Missouri	B12	0.04	0.03	91.67	87.92	0.04	0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.04	0.03	34.78	33.38	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.04	0.03	26.32	29.85	-0.02	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.04	0.03	77.27	75.07	0.02	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.04	0.03	54.55	56.78	0.00	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.00	0.03	65.22	63.69	0.00	0.01