SIU Edwardsville

Conference:	OVC
Expected RPI:	300.0
Current RPI:	300
Expected SOS:	297
Current SOS:	297
Current Record:	8-17
Expected Record:	8-17
Current Conf Record:	6-10
Expected Conf Record:	6-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-9
Current OOC Record:	2-7
Expected OOC Record:	2-7
Expected OOC RPI:	338
Expected OOC SOS:	333

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-17	300.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for SIU Edwardsville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-14	Illinois (92.0)	B10	A	66-46	L	0%
11-17	Illinois St. (100.0)	MVC	A	68-38	L	0%
11-22	Lipscomb (225.0)	ASun	N	90-87	L	0%
11-23	Hampton (306.0)	MEAC	N	68-64	L	0%
12-3	Cal St. Fullerton (157.0)	BW	H	57-79	L	0%
12-6	Ball St. (256.0)	MAC	H	55-76	L	0%
12-19	Southern Illinois (255.0)	MVC	A	80-57	L	0%
12-29	Tennessee Tech (138.0)	OVC	H	83-68	W	100%
12-31	Jacksonville St. (216.0)	OVC	H	66-61	W	100%
1-4	Eastern Illinois (285.0)	OVC	H	59-73	L	0%
1-7	Tennessee Martin (326.0)	OVC	A	65-69	W	100%
1-12	Southeast Missouri St. (248.0)	OVC	A	85-68	L	0%
1-14	Tennessee St. (107.0)	OVC	A	52-49	L	0%
1-19	Austin Peay (193.0)	OVC	H	67-80	L	0%
1-21	Murray St. (22.0)	OVC	H	65-82	L	0%
1-28	Jacksonville St. (216.0)	OVC	A	76-65	L	0%
1-30	Tennessee Tech (138.0)	OVC	A	98-80	L	0%
2-2	Morehead St. (166.0)	OVC	H	61-53	W	100%
2-4	Eastern Kentucky (226.0)	OVC	H	80-74	W	100%
2-11	Southeast Missouri St. (248.0)	OVC	H	72-85	L	0%
2-15	Eastern Illinois (285.0)	OVC	A	73-66	L	0%
2-18	Northern Illinois (334.0)	MAC	H	64-62	W	100%
2-23	Eastern Kentucky (226.0)	OVC	A	58-63	W	100%
2-25	Morehead St. (166.0)	OVC	A	76-61	L	0%
2-29	Chicago St. (336.0)	GWC	A	70-81	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

SIU Edwardsville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

SIU Edwardsville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against SIU Edwardsville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	26.25	26.25	31.30	31.30	-9.82	-9.82
Morehead St.	OVC	4.95	4.95	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	4.89	4.89	57.14	57.14	0.70	0.70
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	4.85	4.85	40.74	40.74	-0.90	-0.90
Jacksonville St.	OVC	4.85	4.85	42.86	42.86	-0.69	-0.69
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	4.82	4.82	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	4.78	4.78	32.00	32.00	-1.72	-1.72
Murray St.	OVC	2.95	2.95	96.30	96.30	2.73	2.73
Austin Peay	OVC	2.92	2.92	33.33	33.33	-0.97	-0.97
Tennessee St.	OVC	2.92	2.92	58.62	58.62	0.50	0.50
Tennessee Martin	OVC	2.89	2.89	7.14	7.14	-2.48	-2.48
Ball St.	MAC	2.24	2.24	46.43	46.43	-0.16	-0.16
Illinois St.	MVC	2.23	2.23	59.38	59.38	0.42	0.42
Lipscomb	ASun	2.23	2.23	37.93	37.93	-0.54	-0.54
Northern Illinois	MAC	2.18	2.18	14.29	14.29	-1.55	-1.55
Southern Illinois	MVC	2.17	2.17	24.14	24.14	-1.12	-1.12
Chicago St.	GWC	2.13	2.13	11.11	11.11	-1.66	-1.66
Illinois	B10	2.10	2.10	51.61	51.61	0.07	0.07
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	2.00	2.00	66.67	66.67	0.67	0.67
Hampton	MEAC	2.00	2.00	34.38	34.38	-0.62	-0.62
Indiana St.	MVC	0.27	0.27	54.84	54.84	0.03	0.03
Western Michigan	MAC	0.24	0.24	39.39	39.39	-0.05	-0.05
Wichita St.	MVC	0.23	0.23	83.87	83.87	0.16	0.16
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.22	0.22	75.00	75.00	0.11	0.11
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.20	0.20	60.00	60.00	0.04	0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.20	0.20	21.88	21.88	-0.11	-0.11
Evansville	MVC	0.19	0.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.19	0.19	84.85	84.85	0.13	0.13
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.18	0.18	25.93	25.93	-0.09	-0.09
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.18	0.18	23.08	23.08	-0.10	-0.10
Toledo	MAC	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.17	0.17	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.17	0.17	39.39	39.39	-0.04	-0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.17	0.17	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Miami OH	MAC	0.17	0.17	27.59	27.59	-0.08	-0.08
Bowling Green	MAC	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.17	0.17	6.67	6.67	-0.15	-0.15
Belmont	ASun	0.16	0.16	78.79	78.79	0.09	0.09
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	48.15	48.15	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.16	0.16	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.16	0.16	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Maine	AE	0.15	0.15	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.14	0.14	20.69	20.69	-0.08	-0.08
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.14	0.14	29.63	29.63	-0.06	-0.06
Northwestern	B10	0.14	0.14	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.14	0.14	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.13	0.13	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.13	0.13	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.13	0.13	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
Drake	MVC	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
UC Irvine	BW	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.10	0.10	34.62	34.62	-0.03	-0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Western Kentucky	SB	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Lamar	Slnd	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Missouri	B12	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Mercer	ASun	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.10	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
High Point	BSth	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	ind	0.10	0.10	22.22	22.22	-0.05	-0.05
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.10	0.10	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.10	0.10	16.13	16.13	-0.07	-0.07
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.07	0.07	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.07	0.07	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.07	0.07	19.23	19.23	-0.04	-0.04
Long Beach St.	BW	0.07	0.07	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.07	0.07	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota	GWC	0.07	0.07	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Pacific	BW	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
UC Davis	BW	0.07	0.07	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
UC Riverside	BW	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.07	0.07	64.29	64.29	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.07	0.07	64.29	64.29	0.02	0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon	P12	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	30.77	30.77	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.07	0.07	6.45	6.45	-0.06	-0.06
Bucknell	Pat	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.07	0.07	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.07	0.07	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Lehigh	Pat	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.07	0.07	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.07	0.07	28.00	28.00	-0.03	-0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.07	0.07	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Tulane	CUSA	0.07	0.07	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	78.57	78.57	0.04	0.04
Winthrop	BSth	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.04	0.04	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.04	0.04	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.04	0.04	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.04	0.04	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.04	0.04	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.04	0.04	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.04	0.04	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.04	0.04	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.04	0.04	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.04	0.04	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.04	0.04	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.04	0.04	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.04	0.04	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.04	0.04	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
Utah	P12	0.04	0.04	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	19.23	19.23	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02