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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


SIU Edwardsville

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:333.0
Current RPI:333
Expected SOS:271
Current SOS:271
Current Record:5-23
Expected Record:5-23
Current Conf Record:1-15
Expected Conf Record:1-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-11
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:231
Expected OOC SOS:225



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
5-23333.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for SIU Edwardsville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Hawaii (300.0)BWA68-69W100%0.0
11-13Florida Atlantic (281.0)CUSAN77-68W100%0.0
11-14Texas St. (179.0)SBN86-58L0%0.0
11-18Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCH83-101L0%0.0
11-22Arkansas St. (119.0)SBA75-57L0%0.0
11-26IUPUI (218.0)SumH61-58W100%0.0
11-28Grand Canyon (131.0)WACA64-76W100%0.0
12-2Indiana (79.0)B10A83-60L0%0.0
12-7Stetson (328.0)ASunH72-80L0%0.0
12-17Saint Louis (238.0)A10A72-58L0%0.0
12-19Green Bay (157.0)HorzA94-92L0%0.0
12-21Marquette (60.0)BEA89-56L0%0.0
12-31Tennessee Tech (277.0)OVCH66-72L0%0.0
1-5Eastern Kentucky (247.0)OVCA78-61L0%0.0
1-7Morehead St. (200.0)OVCA73-65L0%0.0
1-12Austin Peay (261.0)OVCH81-83L0%0.0
1-14Murray St. (230.0)OVCH59-67L0%0.0
1-19Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCA79-76L0%0.0
1-21Tennessee Martin (164.0)OVCA75-67L0%0.0
1-25Tennessee St. (162.0)OVCH56-76L0%0.0
1-28Eastern Illinois (265.0)OVCA75-60L0%0.0
1-30Belmont (61.0)OVCA92-69L0%0.0
2-4Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCH61-72L0%0.0
2-9Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCH67-71L0%0.0
2-11Tennessee Martin (164.0)OVCH73-80L0%0.0
2-16Murray St. (230.0)OVCA84-73L0%0.0
2-18Austin Peay (261.0)OVCA92-84L0%0.0
2-25Eastern Illinois (265.0)OVCH78-59W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

SIU Edwardsville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


SIU Edwardsville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  SIU Edwardsville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC26.1426.1418.9418.94-16.24-16.24
Murray St.OVC4.424.4241.3841.38-0.76-0.76
Tennessee MartinOVC4.424.4258.6258.620.760.76
Southeast Missouri St.OVC4.334.3337.9337.93-1.05-1.05
Austin PeayOVC4.264.2626.9226.92-1.97-1.97
Eastern IllinoisOVC4.264.2644.0044.00-0.51-0.51
Jacksonville St.OVC2.552.5554.8454.840.250.25
Tennessee TechOVC2.462.4631.0331.03-0.93-0.93
Morehead St.OVC2.452.4540.7440.74-0.45-0.45
Tennessee St.OVC2.452.4551.8551.850.090.09
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.432.4332.1432.14-0.87-0.87
BelmontOVC2.422.4276.9276.921.301.30
Southern IllinoisMVC1.931.9348.3948.39-0.06-0.06
IndianaB101.911.9153.1253.120.120.12
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.901.9029.6329.63-0.78-0.78
Saint LouisA101.881.8834.3834.38-0.59-0.59
Texas St.SB1.881.8856.6756.670.250.25
Arkansas St.SB1.871.8760.0060.000.370.37
HawaiiBW1.851.8546.4346.43-0.13-0.13
IUPUISum1.851.8541.3841.38-0.32-0.32
Green BayHorz1.841.8453.5753.570.130.13
MarquetteBE1.821.8260.0060.000.360.36
Grand CanyonWAC1.791.7971.4371.430.770.77
StetsonASun1.791.7925.0025.00-0.89-0.89
LipscombASun0.350.3556.6756.670.050.05
TroySB0.310.3158.8258.820.050.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.280.2868.7568.750.110.11
UMKCWAC0.270.2746.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.260.2681.2581.250.160.16
Western IllinoisSum0.250.2523.0823.08-0.13-0.13
Fort WayneSum0.240.2457.1457.140.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.210.2140.0040.00-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.210.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.210.2124.1424.14-0.11-0.11
Louisiana MonroeSB0.200.2022.5822.58-0.11-0.11
Missouri St.MVC0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.190.1941.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.190.1946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.190.1987.8887.880.140.14
Cleveland St.Horz0.180.1826.6726.67-0.08-0.08
BradleyMVC0.180.1837.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.150.1510.3410.34-0.12-0.12
WisconsinB100.140.1473.5373.530.070.07
DuquesneA100.140.1431.2531.25-0.05-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.130.1355.8855.880.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.1276.6776.670.070.07
Miami OHMAC0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
DetroitHorz0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1260.7160.710.030.03
DaytonA100.120.1276.6776.670.060.06
Seton HallBE0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.126.906.90-0.10-0.10
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
Appalachian St.SB0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Coastal CarolinaSB0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
MississippiSEC0.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
IllinoisB100.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
MichiganB100.110.1168.5768.570.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0929.4129.41-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.090.0917.2417.24-0.06-0.06
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
UTSACUSA0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.090.0931.0331.03-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.090.0922.2222.22-0.05-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
HowardMEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
IowaB100.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Penn St.B100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
NorthwesternB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
MinnesotaB100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.060.0677.1477.140.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
NJITASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
SeattleWAC0.060.0637.0437.04-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Ohio St.B100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
CornellIvy0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
KentuckySEC0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
St. John'sBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0691.1891.180.050.05
XavierBE0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
Michigan St.B100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
DrakeMVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
SamfordSC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
RadfordBSth0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
UtahP120.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
LehighPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02