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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.


SIU Edwardsville

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:300.0
Current RPI:300
Expected SOS:297
Current SOS:297
Current Record:8-17
Expected Record:8-17
Current Conf Record:6-10
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-9
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:338
Expected OOC SOS:333



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-17300.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for SIU Edwardsville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Illinois (92.0)B10A66-46L0%0.0
11-17Illinois St. (100.0)MVCA68-38L0%0.0
11-22Lipscomb (225.0)ASunN90-87L0%0.0
11-23Hampton (306.0)MEACN68-64L0%0.0
12-3Cal St. Fullerton (157.0)BWH57-79L0%0.0
12-6Ball St. (256.0)MACH55-76L0%0.0
12-19Southern Illinois (255.0)MVCA80-57L0%0.0
12-29Tennessee Tech (138.0)OVCH83-68W100%0.0
12-31Jacksonville St. (216.0)OVCH66-61W100%0.0
1-4Eastern Illinois (285.0)OVCH59-73L0%0.0
1-7Tennessee Martin (326.0)OVCA65-69W100%0.0
1-12Southeast Missouri St. (248.0)OVCA85-68L0%0.0
1-14Tennessee St. (107.0)OVCA52-49L0%0.0
1-19Austin Peay (193.0)OVCH67-80L0%0.0
1-21Murray St. (22.0)OVCH65-82L0%0.0
1-28Jacksonville St. (216.0)OVCA76-65L0%0.0
1-30Tennessee Tech (138.0)OVCA98-80L0%0.0
2-2Morehead St. (166.0)OVCH61-53W100%0.0
2-4Eastern Kentucky (226.0)OVCH80-74W100%0.0
2-11Southeast Missouri St. (248.0)OVCH72-85L0%0.0
2-15Eastern Illinois (285.0)OVCA73-66L0%0.0
2-18Northern Illinois (334.0)MACH64-62W100%0.0
2-23Eastern Kentucky (226.0)OVCA58-63W100%0.0
2-25Morehead St. (166.0)OVCA76-61L0%0.0
2-29Chicago St. (336.0)GWCA70-81W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

SIU Edwardsville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


SIU Edwardsville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  SIU Edwardsville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC26.2526.2531.3031.30-9.82-9.82
Morehead St.OVC4.954.9550.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC4.894.8957.1457.140.700.70
Southeast Missouri St.OVC4.854.8540.7440.74-0.90-0.90
Jacksonville St.OVC4.854.8542.8642.86-0.69-0.69
Eastern KentuckyOVC4.824.8250.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC4.784.7832.0032.00-1.72-1.72
Murray St.OVC2.952.9596.3096.302.732.73
Austin PeayOVC2.922.9233.3333.33-0.97-0.97
Tennessee St.OVC2.922.9258.6258.620.500.50
Tennessee MartinOVC2.892.897.147.14-2.48-2.48
Ball St.MAC2.242.2446.4346.43-0.16-0.16
Illinois St.MVC2.232.2359.3859.380.420.42
LipscombASun2.232.2337.9337.93-0.54-0.54
Northern IllinoisMAC2.182.1814.2914.29-1.55-1.55
Southern IllinoisMVC2.172.1724.1424.14-1.12-1.12
Chicago St.GWC2.132.1311.1111.11-1.66-1.66
IllinoisB102.102.1051.6151.610.070.07
Cal St. FullertonBW2.002.0066.6766.670.670.67
HamptonMEAC2.002.0034.3834.38-0.62-0.62
Indiana St.MVC0.270.2754.8454.840.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.240.2439.3939.39-0.05-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.230.2383.8783.870.160.16
Norfolk St.MEAC0.220.2275.0075.000.110.11
South Carolina UpstateASun0.200.2060.0060.000.040.04
BradleyMVC0.200.2021.8821.88-0.11-0.11
EvansvilleMVC0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
CreightonMVC0.190.1984.8584.850.130.13
Houston BaptistGWC0.180.1825.9325.93-0.09-0.09
Central ArkansasSlnd0.180.1823.0823.08-0.10-0.10
ToledoMAC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.170.1739.3939.39-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
Miami OHMAC0.170.1727.5927.59-0.08-0.08
Bowling GreenMAC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.170.176.676.67-0.15-0.15
BelmontASun0.160.1678.7978.790.090.09
Delaware St.MEAC0.160.1648.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.160.1658.0658.060.030.03
MaineAE0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.140.1429.6329.63-0.06-0.06
NorthwesternB100.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
Utah ValleyGWC0.140.1457.1457.140.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
East Tennessee St.ASun0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaBE0.130.1359.3859.380.030.03
IowaB100.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
Middle TennesseeSB0.130.1380.0080.000.080.08
DrakeMVC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1034.6234.62-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiBE0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
Western KentuckySB0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
LamarSlnd0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
MissouriB120.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
MercerASun0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
PurdueB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
High PointBSth0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Longwoodind0.100.1022.2222.22-0.05-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.100.1016.1316.13-0.07-0.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0938.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0719.2319.23-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
North DakotaGWC0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
PacificBW0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
UC DavisBW0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
UC RiversideBW0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0764.2964.290.020.02
DePaulBE0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.070.0764.2964.290.020.02
IUPUISum0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0730.7730.77-0.03-0.03
Southern MethodistCUSA0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.070.076.456.45-0.06-0.06
BucknellPat0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0757.6957.690.010.01
College of CharlestonSC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
DuquesneA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.070.0746.4346.43-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0764.7164.710.020.02
North FloridaASun0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.070.0760.7160.710.010.01
South DakotaSum0.070.0728.0028.00-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
St. LouisA100.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
StetsonASun0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
TulaneCUSA0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.070.0778.5778.570.040.04
WinthropBSth0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
MinnesotaB100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
NebraskaB100.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0679.4179.410.040.04
WisconsinB100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
RichmondA100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
RutgersBE0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.040.0440.7440.74-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.040.0451.6151.610.000.00
DaytonA100.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.040.0443.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.040.0437.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0428.5728.57-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.0431.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.040.0456.2556.250.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.040.0477.4277.420.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
St. Mary'sWCC0.040.0483.3383.330.020.02
UtahP120.040.0416.6716.67-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ButlerHorz0.030.0357.5857.580.010.01
LouisvilleBE0.030.0374.2974.290.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
XavierA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
IndianaB100.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
MarylandACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
Penn St.B100.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.WAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
NC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
OaklandSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02