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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


SIU Edwardsville

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:292.0
Current RPI:292
Expected SOS:291
Current SOS:291
Current Record:10-16
Expected Record:10-16
Current Conf Record:8-9
Expected Conf Record:8-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-7
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:346
Expected OOC SOS:337



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-16292.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for SIU Edwardsville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17IPFW (215.0)SumH71-74L0%0.0
11-22Portland (149.0)WCCA75-53L0%0.0
11-24Portland St. (225.0)BSkyA90-87L0%0.0
12-3Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCH67-79L0%0.0
12-6Central Michigan (70.0)MACA94-61L0%0.0
12-13Saint Louis (272.0)A10A67-61L0%0.0
12-17Campbell (323.0)BSthA70-65L0%0.0
12-20Milwaukee (206.0)HorzH61-56W100%0.0
12-22Chicago St. (333.0)WACH63-38W100%0.0
1-1Jacksonville St. (304.0)OVCH73-57W100%0.0
1-3Tennessee Tech (290.0)OVCH85-62W100%0.0
1-7Belmont (105.0)OVCA73-69L0%0.0
1-10Tennessee St. (341.0)OVCH45-38W100%0.0
1-15Morehead St. (201.0)OVCA91-63L0%0.0
1-17Eastern Kentucky (156.0)OVCA78-62L0%0.0
1-22Austin Peay (318.0)OVCH69-65W100%0.0
1-24Murray St. (63.0)OVCH54-60L0%0.0
1-29Southeast Missouri St. (289.0)OVCA61-75W100%0.0
1-31Eastern Illinois (173.0)OVCA57-54L0%0.0
2-7Tennessee Martin (177.0)OVCA64-59L0%0.0
2-12Murray St. (63.0)OVCA78-46L0%0.0
2-14Eastern Illinois (173.0)OVCH80-63W100%0.0
2-19Southeast Missouri St. (289.0)OVCH75-72W100%0.0
2-21Tennessee Martin (177.0)OVCH76-68W100%0.0
2-26Austin Peay (318.0)OVCA64-61L0%0.0
3-4Eastern Illinois (173.0)OVCN78-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

SIU Edwardsville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


SIU Edwardsville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  SIU Edwardsville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC26.3326.3335.4235.42-7.68-7.68
Eastern IllinoisOVC6.546.5450.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC4.784.7882.1482.143.073.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC4.704.7042.3142.31-0.72-0.72
Austin PeayOVC4.674.6719.2319.23-2.88-2.88
Tennessee MartinOVC4.674.6757.6957.690.720.72
Morehead St.OVC2.832.8345.1645.16-0.27-0.27
BelmontOVC2.822.8266.6766.670.940.94
Tennessee St.OVC2.682.6810.7110.71-2.10-2.10
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.652.6559.2659.260.490.49
Jacksonville St.OVC2.622.6235.7135.71-0.75-0.75
Tennessee TechOVC2.622.6237.0437.04-0.68-0.68
Southern IllinoisMVC2.262.2632.2632.26-0.80-0.80
PortlandWCC2.022.0248.2848.28-0.07-0.07
Portland St.BSky1.961.9646.1546.15-0.15-0.15
Chicago St.WAC1.951.9517.8617.86-1.26-1.26
Saint LouisA101.951.9530.0030.00-0.78-0.78
CampbellBSth1.921.9221.4321.43-1.10-1.10
Central MichiganMAC1.921.9270.3770.370.780.78
IPFWSum1.921.9246.1546.15-0.15-0.15
MilwaukeeHorz1.921.9244.4444.44-0.21-0.21
LipscombASun0.270.2739.2939.29-0.06-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.260.2646.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.260.2631.0331.03-0.10-0.10
ValparaisoHorz0.230.2383.3383.330.160.16
Illinois St.MVC0.230.2362.5062.500.060.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
UC DavisBW0.200.2079.3179.310.120.12
Western KentuckyCUSA0.200.2060.0060.000.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.170.1720.6920.69-0.10-0.10
Northern IllinoisMAC0.170.1744.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.170.1725.0025.00-0.08-0.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.170.1728.5728.57-0.07-0.07
PresbyterianBSth0.170.1721.4321.43-0.09-0.09
DrakeMVC0.160.1626.6726.67-0.07-0.07
EvansvilleMVC0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
South DakotaSum0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.140.1462.0762.070.030.03
MississippiSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
North FloridaASun0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
ToledoMAC0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
UMKCWAC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
San DiegoWCC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.130.1373.3373.330.060.06
OaklandHorz0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
BYUWCC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1352.9452.940.010.01
BradleyMVC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Wichita St.MVC0.120.1287.1087.100.090.09
Oral RobertsSum0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
BuffaloMAC0.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
DenverSum0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
OhioMAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1075.8675.860.050.05
SeattleWAC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.106.906.90-0.09-0.09
Northern KentuckyASun0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
DuquesneA100.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.090.0974.2974.290.050.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
IdahoBSky0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0723.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
USCP120.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
IllinoisB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0786.6786.670.050.05
TroySB0.070.0729.6329.63-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0759.2659.260.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.070.0767.8667.860.020.02
LibertyBSth0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
DavidsonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.060.0693.9493.940.060.06
HoustonAmer0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.060.0661.7661.760.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0630.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
UNLVMWC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
DaytonA100.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
George MasonA100.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0690.9190.910.050.05
Cal PolyBW0.040.0440.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.040.0422.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.040.0417.8617.86-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.040.0472.7372.730.020.02
PurdueB100.040.0463.6463.640.010.01
StetsonASun0.040.0421.4321.43-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.040.0439.2939.29-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
MaineAE0.030.0310.0010.00-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0362.9662.960.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0327.2727.27-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
AmericanPat0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
YaleIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01