SIU Edwardsville

Conference:	OVC
Expected RPI:	304.0
Current RPI:	304
Expected SOS:	240
Current SOS:	240
Current Record:	7-18
Expected Record:	7-18
Current Conf Record:	5-11
Expected Conf Record:	5-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-8
Current OOC Record:	2-7
Expected OOC Record:	2-7
Expected OOC RPI:	301
Expected OOC SOS:	206

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
7-18	304.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for SIU Edwardsville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Missouri (36.0)	SEC	A	83-69	L	0%
11-14	Western Illinois (122.0)	Sum	H	62-50	W	100%
11-20	Southern Illinois (192.0)	MVC	H	55-71	L	0%
11-24	Texas Pan American (306.0)	GWC	A	77-66	L	0%
12-1	Chicago St. (320.0)	GWC	H	71-57	W	100%
12-5	Northern Illinois (333.0)	MAC	A	65-54	L	0%
12-8	Western Illinois (122.0)	Sum	A	55-38	L	0%
12-28	St. Louis (15.0)	A10	A	68-41	L	0%
1-3	Morehead St. (172.0)	OVC	A	68-64	L	0%
1-5	Eastern Kentucky (70.0)	OVC	A	78-72	L	0%
1-10	Jacksonville St. (142.0)	OVC	H	62-75	L	0%
1-12	Tennessee Tech (242.0)	OVC	H	58-54	W	100%
1-17	Austin Peay (319.0)	OVC	A	53-66	W	100%
1-19	Murray St. (110.0)	OVC	A	70-61	L	0%
1-24	Southeast Missouri St. (216.0)	OVC	H	80-77	W	100%
1-26	Tennessee Martin (312.0)	OVC	H	62-65	L	0%
2-2	Eastern Illinois (276.0)	OVC	H	49-45	W	100%
2-7	Southeast Missouri St. (216.0)	OVC	A	76-67	L	0%
2-9	Tennessee Martin (312.0)	OVC	A	77-68	L	0%
2-14	Murray St. (110.0)	OVC	H	65-60	W	100%
2-16	Austin Peay (319.0)	OVC	H	71-83	L	0%
2-20	Tennessee St. (105.0)	OVC	H	73-83	L	0%
2-23	Central Arkansas (286.0)	Slnd	A	80-78	L	0%
2-27	Belmont (21.0)	OVC	A	73-43	L	0%
3-2	Eastern Illinois (276.0)	OVC	A	61-46	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

SIU Edwardsville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

SIU Edwardsville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against SIU Edwardsville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	26.26	26.26	25.25	25.25	-13.00	-13.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	5.06	5.06	34.48	34.48	-1.57	-1.57
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	4.92	4.92	48.28	48.28	-0.17	-0.17
Tennessee Martin	OVC	4.84	4.84	19.23	19.23	-2.98	-2.98
Murray St.	OVC	4.81	4.81	66.67	66.67	1.60	1.60
Austin Peay	OVC	4.75	4.75	18.52	18.52	-2.99	-2.99
Western Illinois	Sum	4.06	4.06	73.08	73.08	1.88	1.88
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	2.82	2.82	70.00	70.00	1.13	1.13
Morehead St.	OVC	2.79	2.79	40.00	40.00	-0.56	-0.56
Belmont	OVC	2.79	2.79	79.31	79.31	1.63	1.63
Tennessee St.	OVC	2.78	2.78	51.72	51.72	0.10	0.10
Tennessee Tech	OVC	2.68	2.68	38.46	38.46	-0.62	-0.62
Jacksonville St.	OVC	2.67	2.67	56.00	56.00	0.32	0.32
Central Arkansas	Slnd	2.20	2.20	37.04	37.04	-0.57	-0.57
Chicago St.	GWC	2.17	2.17	25.93	25.93	-1.05	-1.05
Texas Pan American	GWC	2.17	2.17	40.74	40.74	-0.40	-0.40
St. Louis	A10	2.17	2.17	81.25	81.25	1.36	1.36
Missouri	SEC	2.10	2.10	68.75	68.75	0.79	0.79
Northern Illinois	MAC	2.06	2.06	10.71	10.71	-1.62	-1.62
Southern Illinois	MVC	2.03	2.03	41.38	41.38	-0.35	-0.35
Lipscomb	ASun	0.31	0.31	37.93	37.93	-0.08	-0.08
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.28	0.28	34.48	34.48	-0.09	-0.09
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.28	0.28	70.97	70.97	0.12	0.12
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.28	0.28	70.97	70.97	0.12	0.12
New Orleans	ind	0.27	0.27	18.18	18.18	-0.17	-0.17
South Dakota	Sum	0.25	0.25	28.57	28.57	-0.11	-0.11
Arkansas St.	SB	0.25	0.25	60.00	60.00	0.05	0.05
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.24	0.24	22.58	22.58	-0.13	-0.13
Evansville	MVC	0.24	0.24	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.24	0.24	39.29	39.29	-0.05	-0.05
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.24	0.24	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.24	0.24	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.24	0.24	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.21	0.21	35.71	35.71	-0.06	-0.06
Valparaiso	Horz	0.20	0.20	78.12	78.12	0.11	0.11
Oakland	Sum	0.18	0.18	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.17	0.17	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.17	0.17	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.17	0.17	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.17	0.17	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.14	0.14	13.33	13.33	-0.10	-0.10
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.14	0.14	48.00	48.00	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.14	0.14	88.24	88.24	0.11	0.11
Samford	SC	0.14	0.14	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
DePaul	BE	0.14	0.14	34.38	34.38	-0.04	-0.04
Auburn	SEC	0.14	0.14	28.12	28.12	-0.06	-0.06
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.14	0.14	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.14	0.14	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Dayton	A10	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.13	0.13	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.13	0.13	85.29	85.29	0.09	0.09
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.12	0.12	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.11	0.11	9.68	9.68	-0.09	-0.09
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.10	0.10	10.00	10.00	-0.08	-0.08
High Point	BSth	0.10	0.10	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Indiana St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Butler	A10	0.09	0.09	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Mississippi	SEC	0.09	0.09	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Texas A&M	SEC	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.07	0.07	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.07	0.07	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	70.37	70.37	0.03	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.07	0.07	85.19	85.19	0.05	0.05
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.07	0.07	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.07	0.07	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.07	0.07	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.07	0.07	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
St. John's	BE	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.07	0.07	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.06	0.06	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.04	0.04	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.04	0.04	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.04	0.04	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.04	0.04	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.04	0.04	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.04	0.04	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.04	0.04	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.04	0.04	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.04	0.04	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.04	0.04	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.04	0.04	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.04	0.04	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.04	0.04	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.04	0.04	13.79	13.79	-0.03	-0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.04	0.04	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	WAC	0.04	0.04	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Utah St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00