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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


SIU Edwardsville

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:217.7
Current RPI:134
Expected SOS:201
Current SOS:135
Current Record:4-4
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-6
Current OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:165
Expected OOC SOS:194



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-993.00.03%
18-10107.90.19%
17-11117.50.74%
16-12135.22.09%
15-13153.75.16%
14-14173.710.56%
13-15193.116.82%
12-16213.719.82%
11-17233.717.99%
10-18253.213.50%
9-19270.78.36%
8-20286.53.28%
7-21298.41.15%
6-22310.20.26%
5-23317.80.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for SIU Edwardsville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Hawaii (273.6)BWA68-69W100%0.0
11-13Florida Atlantic (280.5)CUSAN77-68W100%0.0
11-14Texas St. (265.1)SBN86-58L0%0.0
11-18Southern Illinois (145.7)MVCH83-101L0%0.0
11-22Arkansas St. (76.0)SBA75-57L0%0.0
11-26IUPUI (158.9)SumH61-58W100%0.0
11-28Grand Canyon (179.1)WACA64-76W100%0.0
12-2Indiana (20.4)B10A83-60L0%0.0
12-7Stetson (319.1)ASunH0-076%8.3
12-17Saint Louis (286.9)A10A0-047%-1.0
12-19Green Bay (148.5)HorzA0-022%-9.4
12-21Marquette (46.7)BEA0-02%-24.1
12-31Tennessee Tech (305.9)OVCH0-068%5.5
1-5Eastern Kentucky (157.0)OVCA0-025%-8.0
1-7Morehead St. (225.6)OVCA0-032%-5.7
1-12Austin Peay (231.2)OVCH0-059%2.8
1-14Murray St. (137.0)OVCH0-032%-5.5
1-19Southeast Missouri St. (267.5)OVCA0-041%-2.9
1-21Tennessee Martin (172.9)OVCA0-031%-6.0
1-25Tennessee St. (95.6)OVCH0-032%-5.8
1-28Eastern Illinois (230.7)OVCA0-029%-6.5
1-30Belmont (106.9)OVCA0-014%-12.8
2-4Jacksonville St. (187.0)OVCH0-050%0.1
2-9Southeast Missouri St. (267.5)OVCH0-061%3.4
2-11Tennessee Martin (172.9)OVCH0-051%0.3
2-16Murray St. (137.0)OVCA0-016%-11.8
2-18Austin Peay (231.2)OVCA0-039%-3.4
2-25Eastern Illinois (230.7)OVCH0-049%-0.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

SIU Edwardsville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


SIU Edwardsville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  SIU Edwardsville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC28.6326.2055.0044.402.86-2.93
Tennessee MartinOVC0.524.3775.0054.350.260.38
Murray St.OVC0.454.3350.0060.120.000.88
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.394.3042.8637.82-0.06-1.05
Austin PeayOVC0.004.3033.3335.65-0.00-1.23
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.004.3057.1449.240.00-0.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.392.4650.0049.990.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.002.4550.0063.530.000.66
Jacksonville St.OVC0.002.4350.0046.290.00-0.18
Tennessee TechOVC0.002.4325.0027.36-0.00-1.10
Morehead St.OVC0.002.4216.6737.43-0.00-0.61
Tennessee St.OVC0.002.4285.7170.120.000.97
Southern IllinoisMVC6.251.9450.0047.380.00-0.10
Florida AtlanticCUSA7.291.9120.0031.51-4.38-0.71
IndianaB106.251.9185.7173.644.460.90
Texas St.SB7.291.8840.0041.29-1.46-0.33
Green BayHorz0.001.8842.8651.00-0.000.04
Saint LouisA100.001.8828.5722.80-0.00-1.02
Arkansas St.SB6.251.8871.4365.212.680.57
HawaiiBW7.291.8560.0052.471.460.09
IUPUISum6.251.8542.8653.56-0.890.13
MarquetteBE0.391.8275.0065.330.200.56
Grand CanyonWAC6.251.7950.0060.670.000.38
StetsonASun0.001.7928.5728.38-0.00-0.77
LipscombASun0.000.3512.5033.04-0.00-0.12
TroySB0.520.2942.8636.19-0.07-0.08
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.2957.1453.990.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.2862.5052.330.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.260.0016.68-0.00-0.17
Fort WayneSum0.390.2571.4370.210.170.10
Illinois St.MVC0.390.2560.0067.760.080.09
South AlabamaSB0.000.2271.4357.970.000.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.2242.8644.71-0.00-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.2222.2221.23-0.00-0.13
Missouri St.MVC0.000.2260.0058.590.000.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.2087.5076.230.000.10
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1937.5035.09-0.00-0.06
BradleyMVC0.000.1942.8627.96-0.00-0.08
Cleveland St.Horz0.390.1928.5731.44-0.17-0.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1642.8645.44-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.450.1662.5051.790.110.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.1520.0022.75-0.00-0.08
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1516.6729.81-0.00-0.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1325.0039.59-0.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.520.130.0023.69-0.52-0.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1312.5030.39-0.00-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.000.1342.8630.92-0.00-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1342.8650.11-0.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.130.0013.46-0.00-0.09
DetroitHorz0.000.130.0021.22-0.00-0.07
MississippiSEC0.000.1375.0048.500.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.1262.5050.710.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1216.6729.80-0.00-0.05
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1225.0038.83-0.00-0.03
DePaulBE0.000.1266.6735.430.00-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1271.4363.930.000.03
DaytonA100.000.1271.4373.490.000.06
LouisvilleACC0.450.1287.5075.590.330.06
MichiganB100.390.1275.0066.460.200.04
DuquesneA100.000.1244.4442.03-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.1277.7876.040.000.06
UC DavisBW0.000.1050.0045.970.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.1042.8641.51-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1028.5733.77-0.00-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.000.100.0032.52-0.00-0.03
FIUCUSA0.000.1014.2936.02-0.00-0.03
UTSACUSA0.520.1025.0029.54-0.26-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.1071.4354.860.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1057.1471.940.000.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1025.0030.23-0.00-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1050.0046.240.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0937.5044.39-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0928.5732.62-0.00-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0928.5741.52-0.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0957.1459.280.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0944.4441.30-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0971.4354.560.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.450.0985.7166.190.320.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.390.0957.1458.940.060.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0962.5067.390.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0914.2932.19-0.00-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.000.0950.0060.620.000.02
HowardMEAC0.390.0916.6744.34-0.26-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0971.4356.250.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.390.0942.8647.11-0.06-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.0966.6761.330.000.02
PurdueB100.000.0975.0075.340.000.05
AlabamaSEC0.000.0957.1451.790.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0975.0066.170.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.390.0955.5647.890.04-0.00
Penn St.B100.450.0966.6746.420.15-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.09100.0074.440.000.04
MinnesotaB100.450.0987.5068.020.330.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0975.0086.710.000.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0728.5742.90-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.070.0038.27-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0750.0054.070.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.070.0033.85-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0757.1442.530.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0750.0059.920.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0720.0035.47-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0612.5033.65-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.450.0688.8978.400.350.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0612.5023.75-0.00-0.03
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0041.990.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0642.8645.01-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0642.8655.09-0.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0650.0049.780.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0612.5034.79-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0022.31-0.00-0.04
South DakotaSum0.000.0650.0046.020.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.060.0034.81-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0612.5037.99-0.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.910.0687.5081.960.680.04
PittsburghACC0.000.0675.0049.180.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0038.050.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0687.5068.610.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0662.5069.130.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0642.8643.60-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0642.8660.54-0.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0687.5082.800.000.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0675.0070.180.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0685.7177.150.000.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0666.6757.300.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7174.990.000.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0642.8638.17-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0616.6739.49-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0637.5037.74-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0024.64-0.00-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.390.0671.4373.040.170.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.040.000.01
TCUB120.390.06100.0061.680.390.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0687.5059.310.000.01
MarylandB100.000.0687.5059.330.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0655.5658.610.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.390.060.0025.23-0.39-0.03
SamfordSC0.000.0662.5056.520.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.630.000.03
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0019.67-0.00-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4358.920.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0633.3352.84-0.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0675.0056.590.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0637.5037.03-0.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0084.840.000.04
XavierBE0.000.0687.5070.890.000.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0039.53-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0662.5046.900.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0666.6755.540.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0671.4370.390.000.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.27-0.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0371.4351.460.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3379.850.000.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0371.4355.160.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0387.5075.240.000.02
HofstraCAA0.520.0362.5043.220.13-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0350.0071.020.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0375.0066.100.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0375.0048.030.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0051.040.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3330.44-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0371.4368.050.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0342.8633.23-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0375.0071.470.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0333.3332.35-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.520.0357.1433.230.07-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0325.0020.78-0.00-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1448.500.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0342.8639.20-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0377.7849.900.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.390.0350.0056.740.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.58-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.520.030.0017.61-0.52-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0314.2931.28-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0328.5734.28-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.520.0375.0061.490.260.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0350.0030.350.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0312.5023.93-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0385.7176.240.000.02
AlbanyAE0.450.0342.8661.11-0.060.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0034.27-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.0375.0068.370.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.450.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.450.030.0017.13-0.45-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3356.24-0.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.010.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0312.5029.15-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0034.40-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.450.0344.4434.65-0.05-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0035.95-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0383.3371.480.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.0342.8646.14-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0360.0069.120.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0340.0058.82-0.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0340.0041.12-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5062.040.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0337.5047.91-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.100.000.02
ArmyPat0.390.0342.8650.09-0.060.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0366.6740.030.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0357.1452.030.000.00
LehighPat0.390.0342.8666.67-0.060.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.450.0311.1148.19-0.35-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3339.94-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.450.0350.0066.300.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5043.800.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0328.5723.12-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0362.5066.900.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0371.4363.170.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0350.0041.310.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0355.5641.690.00-0.00
KansasB120.390.0387.5075.860.290.01
LibertyBSth0.390.0333.3348.07-0.13-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0371.4358.600.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.0357.1444.890.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.75-0.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.210.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0385.7145.370.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.390.0322.2238.49-0.22-0.01
VCUA100.000.0375.0073.060.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0071.070.000.01