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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


SIU Edwardsville

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:307.7
Current RPI:309
Expected SOS:311
Current SOS:234
Current Record:0-2
Expected Record:8-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-8
Current OOC Record:0-2
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:329
Expected OOC SOS:289



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-9158.20.06%
15-10179.10.25%
14-11201.10.70%
13-12225.01.93%
12-13248.64.92%
11-14269.08.63%
10-15289.814.20%
9-16306.018.16%
8-17320.618.93%
7-18331.315.18%
6-19339.19.77%
5-20344.14.70%
4-21346.91.85%
3-22349.00.55%
2-23350.60.13%
1-24350.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for SIU Edwardsville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17IPFW (150.5)SumH71-74L0%0.0
11-22Portland (152.7)WCCA75-53L0%0.0
11-24Portland St. (218.0)BSkyA0-024%-8.5
12-3Southern Illinois (180.9)MVCH0-033%-5.1
12-6Central Michigan (211.7)MACA0-023%-8.8
12-13Saint Louis (78.6)A10A0-06%-18.9
12-17Campbell (292.6)BSthA0-041%-2.7
12-20Milwaukee (267.7)HorzH0-045%-1.6
12-22Chicago St. (289.6)WACH0-063%3.9
1-1Jacksonville St. (278.6)OVCH0-060%3.2
1-3Tennessee Tech (270.3)OVCH0-055%1.4
1-7Belmont (73.0)OVCA0-05%-19.3
1-10Tennessee St. (297.9)OVCH0-062%3.8
1-15Morehead St. (136.3)OVCA0-011%-14.9
1-17Eastern Kentucky (128.3)OVCA0-011%-14.6
1-22Austin Peay (306.5)OVCH0-061%3.5
1-24Murray St. (122.6)OVCH0-020%-9.9
1-29Southeast Missouri St. (269.3)OVCA0-029%-6.8
1-31Eastern Illinois (291.2)OVCA0-034%-4.8
2-7Tennessee Martin (309.1)OVCA0-044%-1.9
2-12Murray St. (122.6)OVCA0-08%-17.1
2-14Eastern Illinois (291.2)OVCH0-058%2.3
2-19Southeast Missouri St. (269.3)OVCH0-051%0.4
2-21Tennessee Martin (309.1)OVCH0-067%5.2
2-26Austin Peay (306.5)OVCA0-038%-3.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

SIU Edwardsville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


SIU Edwardsville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  SIU Edwardsville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC37.5026.290.0032.84-37.50-9.02
Murray St.OVC0.004.8850.0070.760.002.03
Austin PeayOVC0.004.840.0029.70-0.00-1.97
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.004.8433.3340.48-0.00-0.92
Tennessee MartinOVC0.004.8150.0032.810.00-1.65
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.004.800.0031.52-0.00-1.77
Tennessee St.OVC0.002.790.0028.15-0.00-1.22
Jacksonville St.OVC0.002.730.0031.32-0.00-1.02
Morehead St.OVC0.002.7325.0058.08-0.000.44
BelmontOVC0.002.7366.6772.990.001.25
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.002.73100.0063.140.000.72
Tennessee TechOVC0.002.7350.0037.470.00-0.68
Southern IllinoisMVC0.002.3625.0049.37-0.00-0.03
PortlandWCC25.002.11100.0049.8725.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.002.04100.0049.390.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.002.030.0024.99-0.00-1.02
Saint LouisA100.002.03100.0064.100.000.57
CampbellBSth0.002.000.0029.13-0.00-0.83
Central MichiganMAC0.002.00100.0044.730.00-0.21
IPFWSum25.002.000.0062.27-25.000.49
MilwaukeeHorz0.002.000.0032.26-0.00-0.71
LipscombASun0.000.290.0042.80-0.00-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.000.2666.6754.020.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.2566.6752.030.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.2550.0052.920.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.2250.0051.860.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.2233.3341.77-0.00-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1933.3346.93-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1825.0035.65-0.00-0.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.180.0041.59-0.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.180.0024.77-0.00-0.09
DrakeMVC0.000.170.0025.08-0.00-0.09
EvansvilleMVC0.000.17100.0063.550.000.05
Ball St.MAC0.000.160.0036.36-0.00-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.16100.0045.990.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.15100.0042.650.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.000.1550.0031.810.00-0.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.15100.0061.500.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.1566.6758.650.000.03
MississippiSEC0.000.1566.6755.980.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.150.0047.13-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.150.0067.49-0.000.05
OaklandHorz0.000.150.0032.48-0.00-0.05
UMKCWAC0.000.1533.3355.40-0.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1533.3327.10-0.00-0.07
San DiegoWCC0.000.1566.6748.330.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1450.0045.600.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1225.0035.61-0.00-0.03
OhioMAC0.000.1250.0056.270.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.1233.3364.19-0.000.03
South DakotaSum0.000.120.0042.57-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.110.0019.17-0.00-0.07
CreightonBE0.000.11100.0055.850.000.01
DenverSum0.000.1150.0061.440.000.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.1150.0046.250.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1166.6746.620.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.11100.0073.660.000.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1150.0049.760.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.11100.0063.820.000.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.110.0053.10-0.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1133.3349.33-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.110.0034.07-0.00-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.110.0031.63-0.00-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.000.11100.0062.040.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.11100.0061.850.000.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.1133.3322.74-0.00-0.06
SamfordSC0.000.1125.0031.88-0.00-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.110.0019.92-0.00-0.07
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1150.0052.290.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1133.3340.99-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.11100.0070.030.000.04
BradleyMVC0.000.110.0027.82-0.00-0.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.11100.0030.790.00-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1133.3345.63-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.1150.0060.360.000.02
VCUA100.000.10100.0073.570.000.05
Wichita St.MVC0.000.10100.0085.100.000.07
BuffaloMAC0.000.0866.6760.610.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.08100.0049.250.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.08100.0054.710.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0866.6734.100.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0833.3354.50-0.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0866.6768.230.000.03
IdahoBSky0.000.0850.0047.120.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.080.0048.00-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.080.0072.02-0.000.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.080.0044.01-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0850.0044.810.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0833.3354.70-0.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0833.3349.42-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0833.3332.78-0.00-0.03
USCP120.000.0850.0027.780.00-0.03
DePaulBE0.000.07100.0037.850.00-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.070.0023.51-0.00-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.070.0042.47-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.070.0037.13-0.00-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.0725.0037.31-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.07100.0067.100.000.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0733.3340.91-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0720.0027.80-0.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0766.6749.590.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0766.6752.320.000.00
TroySB0.000.070.0045.18-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.07100.0070.980.000.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0035.64-0.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.070.0025.03-0.00-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.000.0750.0042.680.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0750.0041.720.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.070.0031.92-0.00-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0750.0054.970.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.070.0063.56-0.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0766.6768.980.000.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.07100.0087.190.000.05
HamptonMEAC0.000.0725.0051.56-0.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0775.0055.790.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.07100.0065.060.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0733.3335.41-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0725.0066.02-0.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.0750.0029.910.00-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.07100.0050.830.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.07100.0071.830.000.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0750.0044.850.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0733.3349.04-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0766.6749.370.00-0.00
XavierBE0.000.07100.0077.070.000.04
DavidsonA100.000.0750.0053.040.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.07100.0071.340.000.03
UNLVMWC0.000.0775.0053.210.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.07100.0047.840.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0766.6769.640.000.03
DuquesneA100.000.07100.0052.610.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0725.0019.94-0.00-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.0766.6751.200.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.07100.0056.240.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.070.0038.59-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.07100.0072.420.000.03
AkronMAC0.000.0466.6763.730.000.01
MaineAE0.000.040.0018.23-0.00-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.040.0044.91-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.04100.0042.120.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0466.6740.400.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0450.0037.760.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0450.0044.170.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC6.250.04100.0053.086.250.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.040.0028.34-0.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.04100.0052.590.000.00
OregonP120.000.04100.0071.440.000.02
PurdueB100.000.04100.0060.550.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.040.0032.07-0.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.040.0028.19-0.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.040.0048.20-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.04100.0084.890.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.04100.0058.780.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.040.0046.61-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.040.0033.68-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.040.0034.98-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.04100.0085.630.000.03
Miami FLACC0.000.04100.0073.530.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.040.0032.69-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0450.0035.040.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.04100.0056.330.000.00
ColgatePat0.000.0433.3341.16-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0425.0056.39-0.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0433.3344.56-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0425.0031.12-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.040.0057.63-0.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0466.6746.540.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0420.0026.89-0.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.04100.0074.620.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.04100.0049.460.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0433.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0450.0037.890.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.040.0028.32-0.00-0.02
San Jose St.MWC6.250.040.0017.53-6.25-0.02
TCUB120.000.04100.0054.550.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0466.6748.790.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.04100.0075.720.000.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.040.0049.23-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0045.890.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0063.44-0.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0350.0054.620.000.00
FordhamA100.000.030.0035.11-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6776.510.000.02
La SalleA100.000.03100.0053.840.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0375.0071.100.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0078.630.000.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0375.0060.410.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.030.0066.25-0.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0045.350.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.17-0.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0366.6767.450.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0037.110.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6752.550.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.030.0050.76-0.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.030.0043.18-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.000.0333.3358.93-0.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0033.75-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0366.6762.540.000.01