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Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


SIU Edwardsville

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:303.3
Current RPI:201
Expected SOS:300
Current SOS:40
Current Record:0-3
Expected Record:9-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-8
Current OOC Record:0-3
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:329
Expected OOC SOS:301



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-9143.60.05%
15-10173.40.31%
14-11197.90.77%
13-12219.82.30%
12-13242.75.33%
11-14266.910.14%
10-15287.315.09%
9-16305.218.96%
8-17319.318.81%
7-18330.614.03%
6-19337.98.30%
5-20343.33.91%
4-21346.61.61%
3-22348.30.27%
2-23349.70.10%
1-24351.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for SIU Edwardsville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17IPFW (160.5)SumH71-74L0%0.0
11-22Portland (155.4)WCCA75-53L0%0.0
11-24Portland St. (175.1)BSkyA90-87L0%0.0
12-3Southern Illinois (188.7)MVCH0-039%-3.4
12-6Central Michigan (164.0)MACA0-017%-11.3
12-13Saint Louis (170.3)A10A0-017%-11.4
12-17Campbell (277.4)BSthA0-040%-3.1
12-20Milwaukee (258.0)HorzH0-048%-0.7
12-22Chicago St. (320.1)WACH0-073%7.3
1-1Jacksonville St. (283.4)OVCH0-066%5.0
1-3Tennessee Tech (282.6)OVCH0-060%3.1
1-7Belmont (62.9)OVCA0-05%-19.3
1-10Tennessee St. (305.7)OVCH0-068%5.6
1-15Morehead St. (136.9)OVCA0-012%-14.0
1-17Eastern Kentucky (162.3)OVCA0-018%-10.8
1-22Austin Peay (304.8)OVCH0-062%3.7
1-24Murray St. (133.8)OVCH0-025%-8.0
1-29Southeast Missouri St. (259.6)OVCA0-028%-7.0
1-31Eastern Illinois (266.2)OVCA0-031%-5.9
2-7Tennessee Martin (273.2)OVCA0-038%-3.7
2-12Murray St. (133.8)OVCA0-010%-15.2
2-14Eastern Illinois (266.2)OVCH0-054%1.3
2-19Southeast Missouri St. (259.6)OVCH0-051%0.2
2-21Tennessee Martin (273.2)OVCH0-061%3.5
2-26Austin Peay (304.8)OVCA0-038%-3.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

SIU Edwardsville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


SIU Edwardsville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  SIU Edwardsville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC34.7226.280.0033.17-34.72-8.85
Murray St.OVC0.004.8833.3366.75-0.001.63
Austin PeayOVC0.004.840.0029.42-0.00-1.99
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.004.8425.0042.86-0.00-0.69
Tennessee MartinOVC0.004.8166.6740.590.00-0.90
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.004.800.0034.31-0.00-1.51
Tennessee St.OVC0.002.790.0025.13-0.00-1.39
Jacksonville St.OVC0.002.7325.0031.63-0.00-1.00
Morehead St.OVC0.002.7333.3357.99-0.000.44
BelmontOVC0.002.7380.0075.950.001.41
Tennessee TechOVC0.002.7350.0035.990.00-0.76
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.002.72100.0056.550.000.36
Southern IllinoisMVC0.002.3640.0047.40-0.00-0.12
PortlandWCC16.672.11100.0049.9316.67-0.00
Portland St.BSky16.672.04100.0055.2516.670.21
Chicago St.WAC0.002.030.0018.65-0.00-1.27
Saint LouisA100.002.0375.0045.060.00-0.20
CampbellBSth0.002.000.0033.61-0.00-0.66
Central MichiganMAC0.002.00100.0053.830.000.15
IPFWSum16.672.0050.0061.470.000.46
MilwaukeeHorz0.002.0020.0033.59-0.00-0.66
LipscombASun0.000.290.0045.69-0.00-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.2575.0055.290.000.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.2575.0043.690.00-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.2550.0064.230.000.07
Missouri St.MVC0.000.2250.0049.570.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.2225.0041.79-0.00-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1825.0049.12-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.180.0032.51-0.00-0.06
PresbyterianBSth0.000.180.0022.89-0.00-0.10
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1820.0031.23-0.00-0.07
DrakeMVC0.000.1725.0024.98-0.00-0.09
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1775.0068.330.000.06
Ball St.MAC0.000.1533.3346.13-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1550.0047.220.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.15100.0053.380.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.1540.0030.81-0.00-0.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.15100.0061.670.000.03
MississippiSEC0.000.1575.0052.920.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1550.0025.330.00-0.07
North FloridaASun0.000.1540.0052.52-0.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.1575.0049.940.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1520.0034.64-0.00-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1466.6749.610.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.1420.0042.29-0.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.1466.6756.860.000.02
Green BayHorz0.000.1475.0077.520.000.08
OaklandHorz0.000.1416.6726.44-0.00-0.07
Southern UtahBSky0.000.110.0016.41-0.00-0.08
CreightonBE0.000.11100.0060.970.000.02
DenverSum0.000.1150.0060.810.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1150.0050.040.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.1166.6751.430.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1140.0038.45-0.00-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.1150.0045.290.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.110.0038.82-0.00-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.1140.0060.24-0.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.11100.0061.080.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.110.0052.30-0.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1133.3354.73-0.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1120.0038.42-0.00-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1140.0046.02-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1150.0058.990.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1150.0040.550.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.11100.0079.750.000.07
ButlerBE0.000.11100.0071.480.000.05
LongwoodBSth0.000.1120.0022.02-0.00-0.06
SamfordSC0.000.1133.3335.00-0.00-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.110.0022.25-0.00-0.06
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1125.0039.50-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.1150.0067.000.000.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1166.6758.830.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.1150.0032.470.00-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1125.0052.61-0.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.1133.3353.30-0.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.1150.0029.060.00-0.04
VCUA100.000.1080.0073.080.000.05
Wichita St.MVC0.000.10100.0084.900.000.07
BuffaloMAC0.000.0875.0064.180.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.08100.0052.420.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0880.0074.900.000.04
IdahoBSky0.000.0833.3348.27-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0840.0026.51-0.00-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.080.0066.35-0.000.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.0833.3351.34-0.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0850.0047.310.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0820.0050.03-0.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0825.0026.31-0.00-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0866.6753.510.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0733.3351.01-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.070.0020.63-0.00-0.04
USCP122.780.0750.0028.760.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.070.0034.83-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0720.0031.47-0.00-0.03
BrownIvy0.000.0720.0038.01-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.07100.0065.110.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0750.0037.010.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0714.2931.08-0.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0740.0036.41-0.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0775.0053.300.000.00
TroySB0.000.070.0043.61-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0036.14-0.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun2.780.070.0025.58-2.78-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.000.0775.0066.110.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0740.0033.60-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.070.0033.69-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0766.6753.550.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0750.0073.640.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.0766.6726.420.00-0.03
DetroitHorz0.000.0760.0058.400.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0740.0057.50-0.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.07100.0088.520.000.06
HamptonMEAC0.000.0716.6745.77-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0775.0055.980.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0766.6760.360.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0720.0029.02-0.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0750.0071.940.000.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.0766.6755.570.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.07100.0071.830.000.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0733.3339.69-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0725.0044.95-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0750.0044.110.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0775.0051.040.000.00
XavierBE0.000.07100.0077.810.000.04
PacificWCC0.000.0733.3331.37-0.00-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.0766.6761.870.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.07100.0074.750.000.03
UNLVMWC0.000.0775.0051.700.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.07100.0053.810.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0775.0071.150.000.03
DuquesneA100.000.07100.0054.340.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0720.0021.73-0.00-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.0750.0044.930.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.07100.0060.350.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0750.0040.810.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.07100.0077.900.000.04
AkronMAC0.000.0460.0066.190.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0416.6731.72-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0433.3335.63-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2.780.0433.3338.74-0.93-0.01
Georgia TechACC2.780.04100.0049.262.78-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.040.0024.87-0.00-0.02
MaineAE0.000.040.0019.27-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.040.0046.27-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0483.3339.590.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0460.0063.060.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0483.3368.600.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.040.0030.90-0.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.040.0024.69-0.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0425.0052.85-0.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.040.0027.64-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.040.0038.94-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.04100.0089.070.000.03
Miami FLACC0.000.04100.0079.800.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.040.0035.63-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0480.0058.430.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0460.0053.110.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0460.0037.550.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0425.0047.86-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.000.0420.0039.02-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0440.0053.46-0.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0425.0039.67-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0440.0032.41-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0460.0067.690.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0480.0046.930.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0433.3330.11-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0425.0051.72-0.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0483.3369.220.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.04100.0061.400.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0450.0042.760.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0425.0046.64-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0425.0034.11-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0420.0041.72-0.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC4.170.040.0019.26-4.17-0.02
TCUB120.000.04100.0061.120.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0466.6739.850.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0466.6747.140.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.04100.0073.600.000.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0440.0048.44-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.04100.0086.460.000.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0333.3345.47-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0062.99-0.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0366.6759.500.000.01
FordhamA100.000.030.0026.01-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0375.0069.280.000.01
La SalleA100.000.03100.0056.620.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0071.830.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0079.150.000.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3366.600.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0350.0068.710.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0045.580.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0027.68-0.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0350.0064.050.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0360.0039.490.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0052.090.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0333.3350.63-0.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0325.0040.45-0.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0350.0065.840.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0036.91-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0380.0070.280.000.01