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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


SIU Edwardsville

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:309.6
Current RPI:301
Expected SOS:195
Current SOS:148
Current Record:4-18
Expected Record:6-22
Current Conf Record:1-9
Expected Conf Record:3-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-9
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:226
Expected OOC SOS:57



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-18254.60.33%
9-19273.23.21%
8-20289.113.52%
7-21303.528.68%
6-22315.631.51%
5-23325.718.45%
4-24332.94.29%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for SIU Edwardsville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Arkansas St. (227.7)SBH79-70W100%0.0
11-18Saint Louis (197.0)A10H60-70L0%0.0
11-21IPFW (77.4)SumA87-67L0%0.0
11-24Campbell (326.3)BSthH74-77L0%0.0
11-28Butler (54.2)BEA89-73L0%0.0
11-30Green Bay (156.5)HorzH69-87L0%0.0
12-3Milwaukee (158.7)HorzA64-51L0%0.0
12-5Northwestern (115.6)B10A81-56L0%0.0
12-9Southern Illinois (125.9)MVCA74-76W100%0.0
12-12Portland St. (272.8)BSkyH74-64W100%0.0
12-21USC (19.7)P12A70-51L0%0.0
12-28Grand Canyon (100.6)WACH75-86L0%0.0
12-31Jacksonville St. (300.8)OVCA72-67L0%0.0
1-2Tennessee Tech (107.4)OVCA86-63L0%0.0
1-6Belmont (68.5)OVCH77-85L0%0.0
1-9Tennessee St. (176.0)OVCA63-60L0%0.0
1-14Morehead St. (155.3)OVCH67-70L0%0.0
1-16Eastern Kentucky (216.6)OVCH67-65W100%0.0
1-21Austin Peay (252.5)OVCA90-86L0%0.0
1-23Murray St. (170.9)OVCA70-54L0%0.0
1-28Southeast Missouri St. (329.6)OVCH51-58L0%0.0
1-30Eastern Illinois (251.7)OVCH46-60L0%0.0
2-6Tennessee Martin (248.8)OVCH0-048%-0.5
2-11Murray St. (170.9)OVCH0-033%-4.9
2-13Eastern Illinois (251.7)OVCA0-028%-6.4
2-18Southeast Missouri St. (329.6)OVCA0-053%0.8
2-20Tennessee Martin (248.8)OVCA0-026%-7.1
2-25Austin Peay (252.5)OVCH0-052%0.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

SIU Edwardsville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


SIU Edwardsville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  SIU Edwardsville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC26.1626.2015.6920.96-17.95-15.22
Austin PeayOVC2.794.3431.8234.85-1.01-1.32
Tennessee MartinOVC0.584.3445.4546.85-0.05-0.27
Murray St.OVC2.794.3345.0050.46-0.280.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.744.3035.0039.55-0.82-0.90
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.734.3010.0011.73-2.19-3.29
Morehead St.OVC2.792.4850.0052.480.000.12
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.702.4352.1748.490.12-0.07
BelmontOVC2.702.4368.1868.960.980.92
Jacksonville St.OVC2.692.4322.7322.90-1.47-1.32
Tennessee St.OVC2.682.4263.1659.300.710.45
Tennessee TechOVC2.692.4265.0064.080.810.68
Southern IllinoisMVC2.441.9578.2675.931.381.01
Green BayHorz2.441.9555.0056.370.240.25
MilwaukeeHorz2.381.9160.0060.700.480.41
Saint LouisA102.371.9135.0031.08-0.71-0.72
IPFWSum2.371.9172.7369.141.080.73
Arkansas St.SB2.271.8547.3743.32-0.12-0.25
Grand CanyonWAC2.341.8280.9580.311.451.10
Portland St.BSky2.321.8235.2940.78-0.68-0.34
ButlerBE2.271.7966.6765.340.760.55
CampbellBSth2.271.7926.3227.59-1.08-0.80
NorthwesternB102.271.7965.2262.260.690.44
USCP122.271.7977.2772.241.240.79
Northern KentuckyHorz0.320.2930.0032.46-0.13-0.10
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.170.2215.0015.65-0.12-0.15
EvansvilleMVC0.200.2273.9176.040.100.11
IndianaB100.250.2282.6177.370.170.12
LipscombASun0.310.2221.7427.64-0.18-0.10
ValparaisoHorz0.260.2280.9583.050.160.14
Western IllinoisSum0.160.1927.7829.23-0.07-0.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.210.1935.2944.50-0.06-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.210.1952.1747.620.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.220.1954.5555.190.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.210.1854.5555.310.020.02
HoustonAmer0.160.1672.7368.010.070.06
MarshallCUSA0.210.1647.8350.56-0.010.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.160.1659.0959.470.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.200.154.557.91-0.18-0.13
Cleveland St.Horz0.160.1522.7323.37-0.09-0.08
Missouri St.MVC0.150.1540.9138.03-0.03-0.04
OaklandHorz0.160.1566.6767.310.050.05
Weber St.BSky0.120.1368.4271.820.040.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.160.1370.0068.920.060.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.210.1357.1457.930.030.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1333.3334.18-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.110.1385.7181.220.080.08
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.1330.0029.98-0.04-0.05
UMKCWAC0.050.1330.0034.84-0.02-0.04
DetroitHorz0.110.1245.0044.39-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.125.267.22-0.10-0.11
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1240.9143.01-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1273.6870.400.050.05
TroySB0.110.1220.0023.76-0.06-0.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1231.8233.75-0.04-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.150.1231.5836.16-0.05-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.200.1276.1979.640.100.07
WinthropBSth0.110.1065.0063.370.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.160.1019.0522.35-0.10-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1040.9140.96-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.160.1025.0029.75-0.08-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1065.0067.510.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.160.1063.6468.210.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.100.1061.9058.190.020.02
IdahoBSky0.110.0957.1457.940.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.160.0931.5833.51-0.06-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.150.0917.3921.76-0.10-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0928.5734.73-0.02-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.160.0950.0050.510.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.100.0915.7916.39-0.07-0.06
DenverSum0.100.0952.1748.790.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.0961.9060.410.030.02
SamfordSC0.100.0940.9143.37-0.02-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.160.0935.0034.93-0.05-0.03
South DakotaSum0.150.0939.1339.48-0.03-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0923.8128.31-0.02-0.04
IUPUISum0.100.0941.6740.25-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.100.0968.1869.350.040.04
Washington St.P120.160.0938.1033.45-0.04-0.03
WisconsinB100.160.0960.8755.900.030.01
DuquesneA100.160.0966.6758.760.050.02
MarquetteBE0.100.0965.2256.530.030.01
Arizona St.P120.100.0952.1750.240.000.00
MinnesotaB100.150.0926.0927.81-0.07-0.04
OregonP120.110.0981.8278.210.070.05
DePaulBE0.150.0936.3634.95-0.04-0.03
XavierBE0.100.0990.9184.430.080.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0725.0029.29-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.110.0757.8957.330.020.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0742.8647.27-0.01-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0726.3227.34-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.060.0752.3853.620.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0763.6465.480.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0755.0048.870.01-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0750.0053.090.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0760.0056.080.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0742.1142.70-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0759.0958.550.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0763.6456.050.010.01
MontanaBSky0.060.0755.5660.900.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.130.0738.1041.23-0.03-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0726.3236.93-0.03-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0759.0958.100.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.130.0744.4448.52-0.01-0.00
The CitadelSC0.110.0635.0031.39-0.03-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.0675.0071.280.050.03
VMISC0.110.0616.6718.97-0.07-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.100.0685.7184.560.070.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.0650.0056.540.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.0622.7324.28-0.06-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.100.0628.5728.88-0.04-0.03
SeattleWAC0.050.0645.0042.81-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0635.0035.36-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.110.0657.8955.400.020.01
TennesseeSEC0.110.0650.0048.260.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.100.0642.8635.05-0.01-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.0630.0028.61-0.05-0.03
IowaB100.100.0681.8279.900.060.04
Loyola MDPat0.100.0631.8234.36-0.04-0.02
PortlandWCC0.110.0637.5036.54-0.03-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.110.0681.8277.490.070.03
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0627.2730.43-0.03-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0690.0086.120.050.04
FIUCUSA0.000.0642.8645.93-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0636.8437.30-0.01-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.060.0661.1158.300.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.100.0647.6247.86-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0669.5768.670.000.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0657.8961.920.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0640.0044.95-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0642.8641.75-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0650.0045.730.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0676.1976.220.030.03
Texas St.SB0.060.0641.1840.28-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0661.9054.010.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0665.0068.750.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0659.0962.730.010.02
WoffordSC0.050.0638.1043.35-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.0647.6247.96-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.100.0636.3630.98-0.03-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0652.6347.690.00-0.00
UtahP120.050.0672.7368.550.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.100.0652.1747.250.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.050.0660.8759.050.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0636.3635.33-0.01-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0656.5253.460.010.00
ProvidenceBE0.100.0678.2671.960.060.03
Seton HallBE0.000.0672.7368.630.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0670.0069.070.000.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0627.2724.41-0.02-0.03
VCUA100.050.0677.2776.780.030.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0686.3685.330.040.04
PurdueB100.050.0682.6178.230.030.03
ArizonaP120.050.0678.2677.230.030.03
BradleyMVC0.050.068.709.77-0.04-0.05
DrakeMVC0.050.0622.7324.85-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0640.9139.22-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.090.0686.9681.770.070.04
MonmouthMAAC0.100.0679.1780.770.060.04
NebraskaB100.050.0652.1751.560.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.090.0630.0029.46-0.04-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0652.1754.140.000.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0658.3354.120.010.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0660.0054.590.010.01
Penn St.B100.050.0647.8343.63-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.100.0656.5253.350.010.00
WashingtonP120.100.0668.1862.190.040.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0336.3642.19-0.02-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0361.9059.930.010.01
High PointBSth0.060.0357.8961.480.010.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0331.8232.92-0.02-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0321.0529.16-0.03-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0350.0054.850.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0336.8432.84-0.02-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0316.6720.71-0.04-0.02
NevadaMWC0.060.0357.8956.110.010.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0344.4446.94-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.035.2610.18-0.00-0.03
OhioMAC0.060.0360.0057.960.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0380.0070.290.030.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0325.0029.52-0.03-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0333.3333.64-0.02-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0325.0029.91-0.03-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0310.0014.87-0.04-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0360.0061.350.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0371.4370.810.020.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0363.1666.150.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0381.8279.750.030.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0357.1452.310.010.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0326.3233.83-0.02-0.01
BaylorB120.060.0376.1967.350.030.01
BYUWCC0.050.0369.5773.030.020.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0316.6724.27-0.04-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0354.5552.750.000.00
NavyPat0.050.0365.2265.230.020.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0368.1863.720.020.01
PacificWCC0.050.0321.0524.61-0.03-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0331.8232.32-0.02-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0357.1457.560.010.00
UABCUSA0.050.0381.8278.320.030.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0330.0033.57-0.02-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0335.0036.57-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0373.9173.090.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0315.7922.51-0.03-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0357.8954.300.000.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0377.2771.670.030.01
HartfordAE0.050.0326.0926.47-0.03-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0359.0955.550.010.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0372.7369.690.020.01
La SalleA100.000.0321.0520.91-0.00-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0345.0043.19-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0342.8639.84-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0380.9575.640.030.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0354.5555.990.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0352.3853.680.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0381.8277.440.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0347.6252.96-0.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0334.7841.59-0.02-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0361.9058.420.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0381.8278.720.030.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0363.6461.810.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0372.7366.970.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0365.0064.310.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0352.1752.980.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0321.0523.70-0.03-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.0347.8344.51-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0366.6761.680.020.01
LafayettePat0.050.0323.8125.26-0.03-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0372.7367.980.000.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0382.6181.380.030.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0363.6464.090.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0329.4138.47-0.02-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0386.3680.660.030.02
RutgersB100.000.0322.7320.68-0.00-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0331.8235.16-0.02-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0347.3750.51-0.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0333.3329.23-0.02-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0340.0049.74-0.01-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0333.3332.88-0.02-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0350.0050.040.000.00
YaleIvy0.050.0372.2273.760.020.01