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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


SIU Edwardsville

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:305.0
Current RPI:305
Expected SOS:202
Current SOS:202
Current Record:6-22
Expected Record:6-22
Current Conf Record:3-13
Expected Conf Record:3-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-7
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:239
Expected OOC SOS:84



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-22305.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for SIU Edwardsville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Arkansas St. (285.0)SBH79-70W100%0.0
11-18Saint Louis (206.0)A10H60-70L0%0.0
11-21IPFW (71.0)SumA87-67L0%0.0
11-24Campbell (308.0)BSthH74-77L0%0.0
11-28Butler (57.0)BEA89-73L0%0.0
11-30Green Bay (112.0)HorzH69-87L0%0.0
12-3Milwaukee (173.0)HorzA64-51L0%0.0
12-5Northwestern (115.0)B10A81-56L0%0.0
12-9Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCA74-76W100%0.0
12-12Portland St. (282.0)BSkyH74-64W100%0.0
12-21USC (51.0)P12A70-51L0%0.0
12-28Grand Canyon (91.0)WACH75-86L0%0.0
12-31Jacksonville St. (309.0)OVCA72-67L0%0.0
1-2Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCA86-63L0%0.0
1-6Belmont (98.0)OVCH77-85L0%0.0
1-9Tennessee St. (152.0)OVCA63-60L0%0.0
1-14Morehead St. (127.0)OVCH67-70L0%0.0
1-16Eastern Kentucky (211.0)OVCH67-65W100%0.0
1-21Austin Peay (184.0)OVCA90-86L0%0.0
1-23Murray St. (169.0)OVCA70-54L0%0.0
1-28Southeast Missouri St. (342.0)OVCH51-58L0%0.0
1-30Eastern Illinois (271.0)OVCH46-60L0%0.0
2-6Tennessee Martin (213.0)OVCH62-79L0%0.0
2-11Murray St. (169.0)OVCH64-70L0%0.0
2-13Eastern Illinois (271.0)OVCA64-72W100%0.0
2-18Southeast Missouri St. (342.0)OVCA69-72W100%0.0
2-20Tennessee Martin (213.0)OVCA68-51L0%0.0
2-25Austin Peay (184.0)OVCH75-80L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

SIU Edwardsville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


SIU Edwardsville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  SIU Edwardsville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC26.1426.1421.4321.43-14.94-14.94
Austin PeayOVC4.464.4645.1645.16-0.43-0.43
Tennessee MartinOVC4.394.3951.7251.720.150.15
Murray St.OVC4.394.3948.1548.15-0.16-0.16
Eastern IllinoisOVC4.324.3238.4638.46-1.00-1.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC4.264.268.008.00-3.58-3.58
Morehead St.OVC2.572.5757.1457.140.370.37
BelmontOVC2.452.4562.0762.070.590.59
Tennessee St.OVC2.452.4562.9662.960.630.63
Tennessee TechOVC2.452.4559.2659.260.450.45
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.402.4048.2848.28-0.08-0.08
Jacksonville St.OVC2.402.4017.8617.86-1.54-1.54
Green BayHorz1.971.9762.5062.500.490.49
Southern IllinoisMVC1.941.9470.9770.970.810.81
MilwaukeeHorz1.931.9356.6756.670.260.26
Saint LouisA101.901.9032.2632.26-0.67-0.67
IPFWSum1.891.8970.0070.000.760.76
Arkansas St.SB1.841.8432.1432.14-0.66-0.66
Grand CanyonWAC1.821.8278.5778.571.041.04
Portland St.BSky1.821.8239.2939.29-0.39-0.39
ButlerBE1.791.7966.6766.670.600.60
CampbellBSth1.791.7930.7730.77-0.69-0.69
NorthwesternB101.791.7961.2961.290.400.40
USCP121.791.7962.5062.500.450.45
Northern KentuckyHorz0.300.3025.0025.00-0.15-0.15
ValparaisoHorz0.230.2380.0080.000.140.14
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.220.2218.5218.52-0.14-0.14
EvansvilleMVC0.210.2172.7372.730.100.10
LipscombASun0.210.2132.2632.26-0.07-0.07
IndianaB100.210.2178.1278.120.120.12
Wright St.Horz0.200.2060.6160.610.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.190.1935.7135.71-0.05-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.190.1929.1729.17-0.08-0.08
Illinois St.MVC0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.180.1845.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.170.1723.3323.33-0.09-0.09
HoustonAmer0.160.1670.9770.970.070.07
MarshallCUSA0.160.1651.5251.520.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.150.153.453.45-0.14-0.14
Northern ColoradoBSky0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
OaklandHorz0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
DaytonA100.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
UMKCWAC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
TroySB0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Oral RobertsSum0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.1110.7110.71-0.09-0.09
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Cal PolyBW0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
StetsonASun0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0972.4172.410.040.04
South AlabamaSB0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0922.8622.86-0.05-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0914.2914.29-0.06-0.06
IdahoBSky0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
MarquetteBE0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
DenverSum0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
IUPUISum0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.090.0969.7069.700.030.03
DePaulBE0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
OregonP120.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
SamfordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
XavierBE0.080.0884.3884.380.060.06
DuquesneA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
George MasonA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
UtahP120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
North FloridaASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
UCLAP120.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0757.6957.690.010.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
The CitadelSC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0687.1087.100.050.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
MontanaBSky0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.060.0644.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
DavidsonA100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
MissouriSEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
St. John'sBE0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
PurdueB100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
BradleyMVC0.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
MichiganB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
NebraskaB100.060.0647.0647.06-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Penn St.B100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
VCUA100.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
ArizonaP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
NavyPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
LafayettePat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
PacificWCC0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
YaleIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02