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Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


SIU Edwardsville

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:330.8
Current RPI:337
Expected SOS:300
Current SOS:224
Current Record:0-7
Expected Record:6-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-10
Current OOC Record:0-7
Expected OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC RPI:350
Expected OOC SOS:329



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-12216.00.01%
12-13242.40.07%
11-14268.60.43%
10-15287.22.12%
9-16304.45.85%
8-17317.211.91%
7-18326.818.88%
6-19334.222.70%
5-20339.819.58%
4-21344.011.68%
3-22346.95.14%
2-23348.31.34%
1-24349.70.26%
0-25350.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for SIU Edwardsville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17IPFW (181.2)SumH71-74L0%0.0
11-22Portland (182.6)WCCA75-53L0%0.0
11-24Portland St. (237.6)BSkyA90-87L0%0.0
12-3Southern Illinois (204.3)MVCH67-79L0%0.0
12-6Central Michigan (91.5)MACA94-61L0%0.0
12-13Saint Louis (268.1)A10A67-61L0%0.0
12-17Campbell (222.4)BSthA70-65L0%0.0
12-20Milwaukee (259.4)HorzH0-045%-1.5
12-22Chicago St. (338.6)WACH0-079%9.5
1-1Jacksonville St. (265.9)OVCH0-060%3.1
1-3Tennessee Tech (200.2)OVCH0-040%-3.1
1-7Belmont (131.1)OVCA0-08%-16.2
1-10Tennessee St. (326.9)OVCH0-069%6.0
1-15Morehead St. (209.0)OVCA0-011%-14.2
1-17Eastern Kentucky (174.2)OVCA0-011%-14.4
1-22Austin Peay (300.0)OVCH0-056%1.8
1-24Murray St. (161.3)OVCH0-029%-6.6
1-29Southeast Missouri St. (245.5)OVCA0-016%-11.5
1-31Eastern Illinois (265.9)OVCA0-022%-8.9
2-7Tennessee Martin (144.0)OVCA0-08%-16.6
2-12Murray St. (161.3)OVCA0-010%-15.4
2-14Eastern Illinois (265.9)OVCH0-049%-0.2
2-19Southeast Missouri St. (245.5)OVCH0-041%-2.8
2-21Tennessee Martin (144.0)OVCH0-025%-7.8
2-26Austin Peay (300.0)OVCA0-028%-6.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

SIU Edwardsville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


SIU Edwardsville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  SIU Edwardsville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC28.0926.270.0021.18-28.09-15.14
Murray St.OVC0.404.8755.5660.160.040.99
Austin PeayOVC0.364.8322.2228.88-0.20-2.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.364.8344.4445.46-0.04-0.44
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.004.7933.3337.12-0.00-1.23
Tennessee MartinOVC0.004.7962.5065.380.001.47
Tennessee St.OVC0.712.790.0016.45-0.71-1.87
Morehead St.OVC0.002.7218.1844.67-0.00-0.29
Jacksonville St.OVC0.002.7255.5638.410.00-0.63
BelmontOVC0.002.7260.0061.350.000.62
Tennessee TechOVC0.002.7250.0049.370.00-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.002.7142.8654.39-0.000.24
Southern IllinoisMVC7.502.3555.5647.910.83-0.10
PortlandWCC7.652.1162.5047.071.91-0.12
Portland St.BSky7.542.0450.0045.880.00-0.17
Chicago St.WAC0.362.030.0011.69-0.36-1.56
Saint LouisA107.502.0355.5631.740.83-0.74
CampbellBSth7.142.0014.2942.75-5.10-0.29
Central MichiganMAC7.142.0083.3369.154.760.77
IPFWSum7.142.0050.0055.000.000.20
MilwaukeeHorz0.002.0033.3333.79-0.00-0.65
LipscombASun0.000.2825.0042.50-0.00-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.400.2580.0069.840.240.10
Illinois St.MVC0.000.2566.6764.900.000.07
Indiana St.MVC0.360.2533.3332.85-0.12-0.08
Missouri St.MVC0.000.2137.5040.12-0.00-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.2155.5648.830.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.180.0032.05-0.00-0.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1837.5048.87-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.180.008.71-0.00-0.15
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.360.1818.1821.69-0.23-0.10
DrakeMVC0.400.1720.0020.14-0.24-0.10
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1775.0070.220.000.07
Ball St.MAC0.000.1528.5736.94-0.00-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1550.0033.280.00-0.05
IUPUISum0.000.1520.0026.18-0.00-0.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1575.0067.080.000.05
UC DavisBW0.000.1585.7161.530.000.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1525.0023.97-0.00-0.08
MississippiSEC0.000.1566.6752.510.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.1554.5557.610.000.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1511.1143.93-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.1444.4456.92-0.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.1422.2242.15-0.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.1455.5653.800.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.1475.0078.710.000.08
OaklandHorz0.000.1430.0032.16-0.00-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1444.4444.99-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.870.1433.3332.03-0.29-0.05
Southern UtahBSky0.000.1116.6727.11-0.00-0.05
DenverSum0.000.1150.0053.980.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1144.4455.33-0.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.1150.0037.520.00-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1144.4444.76-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.400.1142.8641.92-0.06-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.1120.0039.57-0.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.1160.0059.520.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1128.5756.75-0.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.360.1157.1454.700.050.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.510.1111.1129.64-0.40-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.510.1136.3644.37-0.14-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1144.4449.01-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.510.1145.4544.47-0.05-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.1177.7871.830.000.05
ButlerBE0.000.1180.0072.470.000.05
CreightonBE0.000.1172.7351.600.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.1120.0026.68-0.00-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.110.0017.71-0.00-0.07
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1177.7869.420.000.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1125.0033.13-0.00-0.04
BYUWCC0.000.1166.6767.780.000.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1171.4364.070.000.03
SamfordSC0.000.1133.3331.37-0.00-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1114.2945.52-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.1128.5747.18-0.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.360.1037.5041.33-0.09-0.02
VCUA100.000.1070.0071.520.000.04
Wichita St.MVC0.360.1087.5085.210.270.07
BuffaloMAC0.000.0875.0069.340.000.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0871.4363.540.000.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0866.6776.500.000.04
IdahoBSky0.000.0837.5049.83-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.510.0830.0028.35-0.20-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.0825.0032.64-0.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0855.5656.480.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0840.0050.48-0.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0837.5031.79-0.00-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0862.5055.120.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0725.0051.40-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0725.0027.83-0.00-0.03
USCP120.510.0760.0037.230.10-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0733.3345.72-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0720.0034.02-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0755.5647.640.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0741.6744.37-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0744.4431.65-0.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.0766.6743.830.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0744.4470.22-0.000.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.070.0034.38-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.510.0744.4447.44-0.06-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.510.0710.0018.36-0.41-0.05
Kent St.MAC0.360.0771.4361.390.150.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0718.1827.98-0.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.070.0028.64-0.00-0.03
BrownIvy0.000.0740.0033.85-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0742.8650.31-0.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0766.6770.610.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.0766.6738.970.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0744.4449.46-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0737.5050.07-0.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.0790.0091.070.000.06
High PointBSth0.000.0762.5056.250.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0771.4348.780.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0772.7365.950.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0725.0035.05-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0736.3664.92-0.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.0742.8638.32-0.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0775.0058.890.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0771.4357.420.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0750.0041.530.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0737.5046.46-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0766.6777.710.000.04
TroySB0.000.0733.3340.58-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0733.3340.60-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.0780.0071.020.000.03
Ohio St.B100.450.0790.0084.620.360.05
TennesseeSEC0.000.0750.0046.160.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.400.0775.0050.770.200.00
DavidsonA100.450.0787.5077.040.330.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.0740.0050.16-0.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0725.0038.24-0.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0775.0060.600.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0777.7869.890.000.03
DuquesneA100.000.0728.5731.25-0.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0725.0025.95-0.00-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0771.4359.600.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0790.0078.120.000.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.0762.5073.580.000.03
AkronMAC0.000.0460.0056.780.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.510.0420.0038.33-0.31-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0442.8638.02-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.510.0420.0028.69-0.31-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.510.0477.7851.090.280.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0416.6733.24-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.510.0411.1121.17-0.40-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0425.0048.84-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.510.0460.0040.460.10-0.01
OregonP120.510.0466.6759.200.170.01
PurdueB100.510.0472.7363.690.230.01
StetsonASun0.510.0411.1128.93-0.40-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.510.0442.8643.73-0.07-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0428.5742.24-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.040.0014.70-0.00-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0450.0052.290.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.04100.0094.670.000.03
Miami FLACC0.000.0490.0075.760.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0420.0029.28-0.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0466.6755.660.000.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0460.0054.270.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0444.4435.62-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0444.4451.18-0.000.00
ColgatePat0.450.0420.0042.80-0.27-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.450.0450.0044.640.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.450.0440.0046.88-0.09-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0444.4439.99-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0462.5071.700.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.450.0470.0060.810.180.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0442.8652.07-0.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0490.9171.750.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0488.8963.230.000.01
Oregon St.P120.400.0475.0049.720.20-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0450.0055.940.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.450.0450.0058.660.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.400.040.007.87-0.40-0.03
TulaneAmer0.000.0487.5054.920.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0450.0053.700.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0422.2245.85-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.0490.9188.430.000.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1461.280.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0333.3363.36-0.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0065.060.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0336.3633.75-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0370.0066.610.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0085.210.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0355.5660.050.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0336.3647.27-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0322.2240.77-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0066.280.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0333.3338.24-0.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0085.770.000.02
FordhamA100.000.0328.5728.28-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6766.690.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0350.0049.770.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0360.0055.530.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.360.0350.0039.320.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0038.50-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.360.030.0023.23-0.36-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0350.0057.040.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0355.5640.200.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0064.990.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.360.0325.0028.71-0.18-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0350.0059.880.000.01
YaleIvy0.360.0370.0064.820.140.01