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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


SIU Edwardsville

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:320.0
Current RPI:320
Expected SOS:310
Current SOS:310
Current Record:9-20
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:7-10
Expected Conf Record:7-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-12
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:343
Expected OOC SOS:308



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-20320.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for SIU Edwardsville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Arkansas (77.0)SECA99-65L0%0.0
11-13Saint Louis (27.0)A10H58-82L0%0.0
11-16Central Arkansas (328.0)SlndH100-93W100%0.0
11-22UC Davis (326.0)BWN80-75L0%0.0
11-23Portland St. (252.0)BSkyA77-74L0%0.0
11-24Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCN72-73L0%0.0
11-26Oregon St. (100.0)P12A101-81L0%0.0
12-2Texas Pan American (312.0)WACH55-49W100%0.0
12-7Central Michigan (294.0)MACH64-65L0%0.0
12-14IPFW (115.0)SumA95-75L0%0.0
12-16Chicago St. (259.0)WACA81-64L0%0.0
12-23Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCA74-57L0%0.0
1-2Morehead St. (141.0)OVCH63-70L0%0.0
1-4Eastern Kentucky (97.0)OVCH85-79W100%0.0
1-9Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCA61-52L0%0.0
1-11Tennessee Tech (215.0)OVCA64-63L0%0.0
1-16Austin Peay (305.0)OVCH71-67W100%0.0
1-18Murray St. (142.0)OVCH67-60W100%0.0
1-23Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCA82-78L0%0.0
1-25Tennessee Martin (332.0)OVCA82-87W100%0.0
2-1Eastern Illinois (291.0)OVCA76-70L0%0.0
2-6Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCH93-88W100%0.0
2-8Tennessee Martin (332.0)OVCH84-78W100%0.0
2-13Murray St. (142.0)OVCA82-72L0%0.0
2-15Austin Peay (305.0)OVCA68-83W100%0.0
2-20Tennessee St. (300.0)OVCA66-61L0%0.0
2-26Belmont (57.0)OVCH75-94L0%0.0
3-1Eastern Illinois (291.0)OVCH74-78L0%0.0
3-5Tennessee Tech (215.0)OVCN74-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

SIU Edwardsville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


SIU Edwardsville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  SIU Edwardsville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC26.2126.2128.9328.93-11.05-11.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC4.274.2726.9226.92-1.97-1.97
Southeast Missouri St.OVC4.264.2653.5753.570.300.30
Austin PeayOVC4.194.1938.4638.46-0.97-0.97
Murray St.OVC4.184.1860.0060.000.840.84
Tennessee MartinOVC4.164.1622.2222.22-2.31-2.31
Tennessee TechOVC4.154.1544.8344.83-0.43-0.43
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.542.5473.3373.331.191.19
Jacksonville St.OVC2.452.4525.0025.00-1.23-1.23
Morehead St.OVC2.452.4556.6756.670.330.33
BelmontOVC2.432.4370.9770.971.021.02
Tennessee St.OVC2.362.3610.7110.71-1.86-1.86
Southern IllinoisMVC1.961.9638.7138.71-0.44-0.44
IPFWSum1.961.9666.6766.670.650.65
Chicago St.WAC1.901.9034.4834.48-0.59-0.59
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.891.8926.6726.67-0.88-0.88
Texas Pan AmericanWAC1.871.8726.6726.67-0.87-0.87
Central MichiganMAC1.851.8525.0025.00-0.92-0.92
Saint LouisA101.811.8180.0080.001.091.09
ArkansasSEC1.781.7864.5264.520.520.52
Portland St.BSky1.781.7850.0050.000.000.00
UC DavisBW1.781.7821.4321.43-1.02-1.02
Central ArkansasSlnd1.721.7225.0025.00-0.86-0.86
Oregon St.P121.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
LipscombASun0.320.3248.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.310.3167.7467.740.110.11
BradleyMVC0.280.2837.5037.50-0.07-0.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.250.2562.0762.070.060.06
UMKCWAC0.230.2334.4834.48-0.07-0.07
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.210.2153.5753.570.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.210.2153.1253.120.010.01
IUPUISum0.200.2010.3410.34-0.16-0.16
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.180.1830.7730.77-0.07-0.07
DaytonA100.180.1869.7069.700.070.07
EvansvilleMVC0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
IdahoWAC0.170.1745.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.170.17100.00100.000.170.17
Missouri St.MVC0.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
Western KentuckySB0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.150.1513.7913.79-0.11-0.11
Northern KentuckyASun0.140.1430.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Miami OHMAC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.140.1410.7110.71-0.11-0.11
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.1473.5373.530.070.07
SeattleWAC0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
Northern IowaMVC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
MemphisAmer0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
LamarSlnd0.120.1210.7110.71-0.09-0.09
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
HawaiiBW0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1146.1546.15-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
VCUA100.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
DrakeMVC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
MontanaBSky0.090.0953.5753.570.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Green BayHorz0.080.0877.7877.780.050.05
DuquesneA100.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0878.5778.570.050.05
OregonP120.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
South DakotaSum0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
DenverSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
UTSACUSA0.080.0822.2222.22-0.05-0.05
KentuckySEC0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
MissouriSEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0714.8114.81-0.05-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0793.1093.100.060.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.060.063.573.57-0.06-0.06
ToledoMAC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
UC IrvineBW0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
AkronMAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
UtahP120.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Texas St.SB0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.060.0688.2488.240.040.04
Arizona St.P120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
FordhamA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
USCP120.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Washington St.P120.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01