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Through games of Mar 4, 2015.


SIU Edwardsville

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:287.5
Current RPI:286
Expected SOS:276
Current SOS:269
Current Record:10-16
Expected Record:10-16
Current Conf Record:8-9
Expected Conf Record:8-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.44%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-7
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:344
Expected OOC SOS:336



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-16287.5100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for SIU Edwardsville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17IPFW (209.4)SumH71-74L0%0.0
11-22Portland (153.9)WCCA75-53L0%0.0
11-24Portland St. (226.9)BSkyA90-87L0%0.0
12-3Southern Illinois (285.6)MVCH67-79L0%0.0
12-6Central Michigan (71.2)MACA94-61L0%0.0
12-13Saint Louis (259.4)A10A67-61L0%0.0
12-17Campbell (321.6)BSthA70-65L0%0.0
12-20Milwaukee (208.1)HorzH61-56W100%0.0
12-22Chicago St. (332.8)WACH63-38W100%0.0
1-1Jacksonville St. (302.7)OVCH73-57W100%0.0
1-3Tennessee Tech (286.8)OVCH85-62W100%0.0
1-7Belmont (143.9)OVCA73-69L0%0.0
1-10Tennessee St. (344.4)OVCH45-38W100%0.0
1-15Morehead St. (213.7)OVCA91-63L0%0.0
1-17Eastern Kentucky (147.8)OVCA78-62L0%0.0
1-22Austin Peay (313.8)OVCH69-65W100%0.0
1-24Murray St. (65.4)OVCH54-60L0%0.0
1-29Southeast Missouri St. (280.0)OVCA61-75W100%0.0
1-31Eastern Illinois (165.7)OVCA57-54L0%0.0
2-7Tennessee Martin (168.6)OVCA64-59L0%0.0
2-12Murray St. (65.4)OVCA78-46L0%0.0
2-14Eastern Illinois (165.7)OVCH80-63W100%0.0
2-19Southeast Missouri St. (280.0)OVCH75-72W100%0.0
2-21Tennessee Martin (168.6)OVCH76-68W100%0.0
2-26Austin Peay (313.8)OVCA64-61L0%0.0
3-4Eastern Illinois (165.7)OVCN78-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

SIU Edwardsville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


SIU Edwardsville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  SIU Edwardsville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC26.3826.3835.4235.42-7.70-7.69
Eastern IllinoisOVC6.536.5352.0052.000.260.26
Murray St.OVC4.744.7484.6284.623.283.28
Southeast Missouri St.OVC4.744.7442.3142.31-0.73-0.73
Austin PeayOVC4.704.7019.2319.23-2.89-2.89
Tennessee MartinOVC4.674.6760.0060.000.930.93
Morehead St.OVC2.712.7144.8344.83-0.28-0.28
Tennessee St.OVC2.712.7110.7110.71-2.13-2.13
Jacksonville St.OVC2.642.6435.7135.71-0.75-0.75
BelmontOVC2.642.6462.9662.960.680.68
Tennessee TechOVC2.642.6437.0437.04-0.68-0.68
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.642.6461.5461.540.610.61
Southern IllinoisMVC2.262.2631.0331.03-0.86-0.86
PortlandWCC2.032.0348.1548.15-0.08-0.08
Portland St.BSky1.961.9647.8346.96-0.09-0.12
Chicago St.WAC1.961.9619.2318.56-1.20-1.23
Saint LouisA101.961.9632.1431.18-0.70-0.74
CampbellBSth1.921.9221.4321.43-1.10-1.10
Central MichiganMAC1.921.9275.0074.250.960.93
IPFWSum1.921.9248.0048.00-0.08-0.08
MilwaukeeHorz1.921.9244.4444.44-0.21-0.21
LipscombASun0.270.2740.7440.74-0.05-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.270.2748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.240.2482.1482.140.160.16
Illinois St.MVC0.240.2462.0762.070.060.06
Missouri St.MVC0.240.2432.1432.14-0.08-0.08
UC DavisBW0.210.2180.0079.440.120.12
Western KentuckyCUSA0.210.2161.5458.930.050.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.200.2053.5753.570.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.180.1822.2223.21-0.10-0.09
Northern IllinoisMAC0.180.1844.4444.65-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.170.1723.3323.33-0.09-0.09
Alabama A&MSWAC0.170.1728.0029.85-0.08-0.07
PresbyterianBSth0.170.1721.4321.43-0.10-0.10
DrakeMVC0.170.1727.5927.59-0.07-0.07
EvansvilleMVC0.170.1762.0762.070.040.04
IUPUISum0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.140.1470.3768.750.060.05
CreightonBE0.140.1443.3342.97-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
MississippiSEC0.140.1466.6766.650.050.05
North FloridaASun0.140.1462.0762.070.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.140.1428.5730.86-0.06-0.05
UMKCWAC0.140.1439.2940.13-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.140.1450.0050.800.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.140.1470.0070.120.050.05
Green BayHorz0.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
OaklandHorz0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.140.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Southern UtahBSky0.080.1130.7731.71-0.03-0.04
DenverSum0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.110.1132.1432.89-0.04-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.110.1153.5753.570.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.110.1168.0066.550.040.04
South DakotaSum0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.110.1163.3363.010.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.110.1146.1547.43-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1167.8667.860.040.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1137.0437.87-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1150.0050.330.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
ButlerBE0.110.1170.0069.320.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
BYUWCC0.100.1072.4172.410.050.05
Northern KentuckyASun0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.100.1079.3178.180.060.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1076.9277.700.060.06
SouthernSWAC0.100.1044.4443.51-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1051.8551.850.000.00
SamfordSC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.107.417.65-0.09-0.09
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.100.1023.0823.57-0.06-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.1044.4444.44-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.100.1053.8553.850.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
VCUA100.100.1072.4172.060.050.04
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1089.6689.660.080.08
BuffaloMAC0.080.0768.9769.160.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0753.8553.590.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0769.2369.550.030.03
IdahoBSky0.080.0744.0044.89-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.080.0741.3841.54-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.080.0722.2222.12-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.040.0753.5754.710.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0724.0024.00-0.04-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0757.1456.680.010.01
MontanaBSky0.070.0757.6958.440.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0721.4321.45-0.04-0.04
USCP120.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0738.4639.08-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0728.5729.92-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.070.0737.9339.05-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0756.6757.730.010.01
NebraskaB100.070.0744.8344.45-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.0746.1547.13-0.01-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.070.0765.5265.390.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0725.9327.43-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0715.3814.76-0.05-0.05
BrownIvy0.070.0740.7438.89-0.01-0.02
DePaulBE0.070.0740.0039.63-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0793.3393.330.060.06
HoustonAmer0.070.0737.9338.64-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.070.0763.3362.470.020.02
MissouriSEC0.070.0727.5927.73-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.040.0764.2965.480.010.02
PacificWCC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.070.0748.0047.71-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0784.6284.500.050.05
TroySB0.070.0730.7731.17-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0730.7731.10-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.070.0760.0060.260.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0751.7251.650.000.00
UNLVMWC0.070.0751.7253.220.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0761.5461.540.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0765.3865.380.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.070.0742.8642.76-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.070.0770.3770.370.030.03
LibertyBSth0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
DavidsonA100.070.0776.9276.660.040.03
MarshallCUSA0.070.0733.3331.64-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0773.3372.570.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0758.6257.790.010.01
DaytonA100.070.0679.3178.690.040.04
DuquesneA100.070.0637.0436.25-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.070.0628.5727.75-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0690.0090.000.050.05
Rhode IslandA100.070.0670.3770.990.030.03
AkronMAC0.040.0458.6257.940.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0435.4836.32-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.040.0444.0043.19-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.040.0424.1423.74-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.040.0415.3816.33-0.03-0.02
MaineAE0.040.0410.0010.00-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0437.5039.77-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.040.0450.0048.760.00-0.00
OregonP120.040.0473.3373.330.020.02
PurdueB100.040.0463.3363.340.010.01
StetsonASun0.040.0421.4321.43-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.040.0446.1544.67-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.040.0440.0040.12-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0422.2222.87-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0424.0024.96-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.040.04100.0099.900.040.04
Miami FLACC0.040.0463.3363.690.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0428.5728.70-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.030.0355.1754.370.000.00
Arizona St.P120.040.0351.7252.550.000.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0337.9337.47-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.040.0367.8668.280.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0353.8555.450.000.00
Notre DameACC0.040.0383.3383.560.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0360.7159.690.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.13-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.4346.45-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.040.0342.8642.86-0.01-0.00
WisconsinB100.030.0389.6688.010.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0360.8761.600.010.01
ColgatePat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0342.8643.44-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.030.0376.6775.470.020.02
MemphisAmer0.030.0358.6256.740.010.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
TCUB120.030.0356.6756.090.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0396.5595.350.030.03
AmericanPat0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0329.6329.22-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.3363.730.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0350.0049.650.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.8676.590.020.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0356.6755.630.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0337.9338.93-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0327.2727.95-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.0024.21-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0360.0061.150.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0344.8343.74-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0357.1458.000.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.8556.030.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0353.5754.420.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0370.3768.760.010.01