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Through games of Dec 21, 2014.


Missouri St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:213.9
Current RPI:191
Expected SOS:109
Current SOS:101
Current Record:3-6
Expected Record:10-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-4
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:249
Expected OOC SOS:193



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1191.80.08%
16-12103.60.27%
15-13125.41.11%
14-14144.53.56%
13-15162.97.98%
12-16182.415.10%
11-17203.020.44%
10-18223.420.51%
9-19243.216.01%
8-20261.89.54%
7-21278.54.20%
6-22293.00.99%
5-23300.90.17%
4-24314.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Missouri St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Eastern Illinois (239.9)OVCH64-53W100%0.0
11-22Texas Tech (89.5)B12A80-68L0%0.0
11-26Colorado St. (34.5)MWCN76-61L0%0.0
11-29Washington St. (199.7)P12N89-84L0%0.0
12-4Arkansas Little Rock (283.9)SBH73-68W100%0.0
12-13Southeast Missouri St. (250.5)OVCA61-73W100%0.0
12-15Oral Roberts (221.8)SumA80-61L0%0.0
12-17Tulsa (115.3)AmerA74-70L0%0.0
12-20Eastern Michigan (108.0)MACH65-77L0%0.0
12-22Oral Roberts (221.8)SumH0-067%5.2
12-31Southern Illinois (233.2)MVCA0-034%-4.8
1-3Drake (288.9)MVCH0-082%10.7
1-7Indiana St. (267.8)MVCA0-047%-1.0
1-11Illinois St. (85.4)MVCH0-038%-3.6
1-14Evansville (69.6)MVCH0-031%-5.9
1-18Northern Iowa (25.7)MVCA0-06%-18.5
1-21Wichita St. (20.0)MVCH0-014%-12.4
1-24Bradley (270.1)MVCA0-043%-2.1
1-28Illinois St. (85.4)MVCA0-015%-12.2
1-31Southern Illinois (233.2)MVCH0-063%3.8
2-4Loyola Chicago (131.5)MVCH0-047%-0.9
2-7Wichita St. (20.0)MVCA0-04%-20.9
2-10Evansville (69.6)MVCA0-011%-14.5
2-15Northern Iowa (25.7)MVCH0-020%-9.9
2-18Indiana St. (267.8)MVCH0-074%7.5
2-22Drake (288.9)MVCA0-057%2.1
2-25Bradley (270.1)MVCH0-071%6.5
2-28Loyola Chicago (131.5)MVCA0-021%-9.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Missouri St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Missouri St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Missouri St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Missouri St.MVC27.6126.5033.3335.74-9.20-7.56
Southern IllinoisMVC0.284.6054.5544.630.03-0.49
Indiana St.MVC0.284.6030.0029.21-0.11-1.91
Wichita St.MVC0.284.5987.5084.660.213.18
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.004.5975.0058.160.000.75
Northern IowaMVC0.004.5790.9182.870.003.01
BradleyMVC0.004.5730.0031.55-0.00-1.68
DrakeMVC0.004.5718.1818.74-0.00-2.86
EvansvilleMVC0.004.5780.0072.570.002.06
Illinois St.MVC0.004.5760.0060.490.000.96
Oral RobertsSum5.833.6033.3341.77-1.94-0.59
TulsaAmer6.181.9555.5654.440.690.17
Eastern IllinoisOVC5.561.9144.4444.53-0.62-0.21
Southeast Missouri St.OVC5.561.9144.4447.82-0.62-0.08
Texas TechB125.561.8588.8953.874.320.14
Arkansas Little RockSB5.831.8242.8637.10-0.83-0.47
Colorado St.MWC5.561.79100.0077.445.560.98
Eastern MichiganMAC5.561.7971.4364.862.380.53
Washington St.P125.561.7940.0028.05-1.11-0.78
Murray St.OVC0.000.3860.0064.830.000.11
MemphisAmer0.280.3160.0061.850.060.07
IUPUISum0.000.3127.2728.77-0.00-0.13
Austin PeayOVC0.000.2520.0029.06-0.00-0.11
Saint LouisA100.000.2563.6436.240.00-0.07
DenverSum0.280.2241.6751.30-0.050.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1966.6764.890.000.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1912.5026.95-0.00-0.09
Kent St.MAC0.350.1977.7858.610.190.03
IPFWSum0.000.1950.0054.440.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1918.1820.68-0.00-0.11
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1970.0059.860.000.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.190.0014.49-0.00-0.13
Ball St.MAC0.280.1625.0037.11-0.14-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.280.1633.3361.51-0.090.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.560.1637.5049.56-0.14-0.00
Green BayHorz0.350.1677.7878.340.190.09
OklahomaB120.560.1570.0062.800.220.04
Fresno St.MWC0.280.1527.2729.51-0.13-0.06
TCUB120.250.15100.0068.320.250.06
DetroitHorz0.000.1340.0047.83-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.1363.6464.930.000.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.280.1375.0067.220.140.04
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1385.7170.650.000.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1316.6743.50-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.1330.0028.63-0.00-0.05
OhioMAC0.000.1342.8637.93-0.00-0.03
Seton HallBE0.000.1381.8263.950.000.04
TulaneAmer0.000.1388.8956.070.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1355.5652.210.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1350.0055.090.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1350.0054.280.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.1333.3343.01-0.00-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.1337.5031.93-0.00-0.05
UtahP120.000.1380.0080.490.000.08
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1355.5656.250.000.02
Weber St.BSky0.280.1337.5044.53-0.07-0.01
Oregon St.P120.280.1270.0051.560.110.00
DePaulBE0.000.1260.0034.330.00-0.04
Iowa St.B120.000.1290.0065.820.000.04
Kansas St.B120.000.1263.6440.220.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.1225.0034.43-0.00-0.04
VCUA100.000.1272.7376.010.000.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.280.1025.0023.65-0.14-0.05
Michigan St.B100.350.1066.6766.950.120.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.280.1042.8633.60-0.04-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.280.1014.2914.63-0.20-0.07
MissouriSEC0.560.1040.0032.37-0.11-0.03
UC DavisBW0.560.1087.5067.460.420.03
UTSACUSA0.250.1037.5035.62-0.06-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0013.95-0.00-0.07
Youngstown St.Horz0.350.0945.4543.17-0.03-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.280.0966.6771.560.090.04
UMKCWAC0.350.0920.0040.46-0.21-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0954.5548.690.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.280.0980.0058.040.170.01
Air ForceMWC0.280.0950.0055.800.000.01
ColoradoP120.280.0966.6757.910.090.01
San Jose St.MWC0.250.090.006.54-0.25-0.08
AlabamaSEC0.000.0770.0052.050.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0750.0068.830.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0750.0037.510.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0716.6737.43-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0714.2930.32-0.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0744.4449.08-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0763.6461.500.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.620.060.0016.07-0.62-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.280.0670.0064.920.110.02
CreightonBE0.560.0669.2349.070.21-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0633.3338.71-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0642.8649.26-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0666.6762.820.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0628.5738.37-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.280.0630.0030.65-0.11-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0032.85-0.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0051.190.000.00
TroySB0.000.0642.8640.42-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0628.5761.90-0.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0640.0034.38-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.0672.7368.580.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0650.0058.340.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0633.3338.20-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0662.5041.050.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0675.0065.050.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0069.180.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0023.75-0.00-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0690.0082.040.000.04
PortlandWCC0.000.0670.0050.570.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0630.0038.92-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0645.4552.17-0.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.0672.7375.960.000.03
South FloridaAmer0.000.0640.0041.10-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0663.6456.720.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0633.3334.44-0.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.0630.0035.75-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0644.4448.17-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0681.8272.960.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0660.0057.740.000.01
AuburnSEC0.560.0650.0039.580.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.0690.0073.480.000.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.0677.7872.900.000.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0690.9168.430.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0011.31-0.00-0.05
George MasonA100.000.0633.3329.75-0.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.0666.6759.170.000.01
KansasB120.000.0690.0071.080.000.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6735.21-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0611.1125.40-0.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.0672.7361.760.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0620.0046.45-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0650.0057.910.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0663.6442.700.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0670.0057.400.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0660.0057.960.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0672.7372.880.000.03
StanfordP120.000.0666.6758.210.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0666.6778.090.000.03
TexasB120.000.0690.9180.170.000.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.530.0637.5064.62-0.130.02
UTEPCUSA0.530.0663.6472.270.140.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0660.0038.340.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0075.560.000.03
West VirginiaB120.000.0690.9170.260.000.02
WyomingMWC0.000.0680.0073.560.000.03
YaleIvy0.000.0666.6763.060.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.450.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.280.030.0028.78-0.28-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.280.0380.0072.430.170.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0377.7871.240.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0340.0051.94-0.000.00
DaytonA100.350.0380.0069.340.210.01
LongwoodBSth0.350.0320.0025.91-0.21-0.02
MichiganB100.350.0350.0040.340.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0370.0052.340.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.280.0350.0071.160.000.01
OaklandHorz0.350.0327.2732.26-0.16-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.280.0354.5557.750.030.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.280.0320.0045.83-0.17-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.280.030.0034.55-0.28-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.350.0320.0034.83-0.21-0.01
BYUWCC0.350.0370.0068.400.140.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.350.0318.1822.91-0.22-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0380.0076.780.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.0355.5635.910.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0082.820.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0354.5549.050.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.280.0318.1837.88-0.18-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0342.8649.17-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.250.0390.9190.730.210.02
IdahoBSky0.250.0337.5053.02-0.060.00
Idaho St.BSky0.250.0311.1129.44-0.20-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.280.0330.0028.28-0.11-0.01
LSUSEC0.280.0380.0063.750.170.01
MercerSC0.280.0344.4443.16-0.03-0.00
MontanaBSky0.280.0322.2247.34-0.15-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0350.0041.130.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.280.0337.5056.99-0.070.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.280.0316.6739.50-0.19-0.01
PacificWCC0.280.0355.5638.450.03-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.280.030.0039.01-0.28-0.01
RiceCUSA0.250.0316.6726.53-0.17-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.250.0344.4436.96-0.03-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.280.0327.2735.54-0.13-0.01
UCLAP120.000.0366.6754.590.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0366.6750.030.000.00
USCP120.000.0363.6440.160.00-0.01