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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Missouri St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:115.1
Current RPI:305
Expected SOS:126
Current SOS:344
Current Record:1-0
Expected Record:16-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:1-0
Expected OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC RPI:111
Expected OOC SOS:183



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-212.00.01%
23-418.50.06%
22-527.30.34%
21-633.50.97%
20-744.62.90%
19-854.75.94%
18-969.19.58%
17-1084.913.77%
16-11103.317.08%
15-12122.116.57%
14-13141.813.15%
13-14162.99.86%
12-15184.55.78%
11-16204.82.51%
10-17226.61.13%
9-18239.60.28%
8-19261.20.04%
7-20277.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Missouri St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Eastern Illinois (284.8)OVCH64-53W100%0.0
11-22Texas Tech (173.3)B12A0-042%-2.4
11-26Colorado St. (65.3)MWCN0-041%-2.6
12-4Arkansas Little Rock (188.4)SBH0-077%8.8
12-7Oral Roberts (161.1)SumA0-048%-0.7
12-13Southeast Missouri St. (265.6)OVCA0-065%4.6
12-17Tulsa (112.6)AmerA0-036%-4.4
12-20Eastern Michigan (167.0)MACH0-075%8.0
12-22Oral Roberts (161.1)SumH0-071%6.5
12-31Southern Illinois (172.8)MVCA0-048%-0.5
1-3Drake (256.1)MVCH0-085%12.4
1-7Indiana St. (158.4)MVCA0-046%-1.3
1-11Illinois St. (121.4)MVCH0-063%4.0
1-14Evansville (102.7)MVCH0-059%2.8
1-18Northern Iowa (63.2)MVCA0-027%-7.3
1-21Wichita St. (16.8)MVCH0-027%-7.2
1-24Bradley (283.9)MVCA0-071%6.8
1-28Illinois St. (121.4)MVCA0-040%-3.2
1-31Southern Illinois (172.8)MVCH0-071%6.7
2-4Loyola Chicago (241.1)MVCH0-082%11.0
2-7Wichita St. (16.8)MVCA0-011%-14.4
2-10Evansville (102.7)MVCA0-036%-4.4
2-15Northern Iowa (63.2)MVCH0-050%-0.1
2-18Indiana St. (158.4)MVCH0-069%5.8
2-22Drake (256.1)MVCA0-067%5.2
2-25Bradley (283.9)MVCH0-088%14.0
2-28Loyola Chicago (241.1)MVCA0-062%3.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Missouri St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Missouri St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Missouri St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Missouri St.MVC37.5026.56100.0058.4137.504.47
Southern IllinoisMVC0.004.8133.3352.17-0.000.21
Indiana St.MVC0.004.8050.0052.000.000.19
Wichita St.MVC0.004.79100.0084.380.003.29
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.004.790.0039.13-0.00-1.04
DrakeMVC0.004.770.0029.16-0.00-1.99
Northern IowaMVC0.004.77100.0069.530.001.86
BradleyMVC0.004.760.0025.72-0.00-2.31
EvansvilleMVC0.004.76100.0064.270.001.36
Illinois St.MVC0.004.7650.0055.040.000.48
Oral RobertsSum0.003.7433.3350.51-0.000.04
TulsaAmer0.002.0266.6751.540.000.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC50.001.990.0035.63-50.00-0.57
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.001.980.0041.88-0.00-0.32
Texas TechB120.001.9250.0043.070.00-0.27
Arkansas Little RockSB0.001.880.0052.12-0.000.08
Colorado St.MWC0.001.85100.0063.000.000.48
Eastern MichiganMAC0.001.85100.0051.880.000.07
Murray St.OVC0.000.4050.0072.260.000.18
IUPUISum0.000.3433.3330.78-0.00-0.13
MemphisAmer0.000.270.0065.36-0.000.08
Austin PeayOVC0.000.270.0029.88-0.00-0.11
DenverSum0.000.2350.0062.440.000.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.2150.0035.880.00-0.06
IPFWSum0.000.2150.0065.390.000.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.200.0035.17-0.00-0.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.2033.3349.18-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.20100.0067.860.000.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.2033.3336.31-0.00-0.05
Saint LouisA100.000.20100.0066.070.000.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.190.0027.72-0.00-0.09
Ball St.MAC0.000.170.0038.12-0.00-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.170.0048.57-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1733.3365.68-0.000.05
Fresno St.MWC0.000.170.0032.99-0.00-0.06
OklahomaB120.000.1650.0059.230.000.03
BelmontOVC0.000.1450.0072.160.000.06
DetroitHorz0.000.140.0055.45-0.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.1450.0033.640.00-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1450.0035.570.00-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1433.3347.78-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.1450.0054.660.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.140.0036.84-0.00-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.000.140.0055.60-0.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.140.0034.57-0.00-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.000.13100.0045.780.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.1350.0033.930.00-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1366.6754.260.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.13100.0061.540.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.13100.0037.800.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1333.3335.37-0.00-0.04
VCUA100.000.13100.0074.770.000.07
Western MichiganMAC0.000.13100.0055.380.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.1366.6755.230.000.01
TCUB120.000.13100.0054.240.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.130.0043.21-0.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.13100.0061.270.000.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.10100.0045.530.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.100.0031.68-0.00-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1033.3328.03-0.00-0.05
Michigan St.B100.000.1066.6771.300.000.04
MissouriSEC0.000.1066.6750.370.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.100.0036.14-0.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.100.0029.61-0.00-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.000.100.0058.17-0.000.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.10100.0064.330.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.1050.0059.030.000.02
Green BayHorz0.000.100.0065.86-0.000.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.1050.0045.330.00-0.01
UC DavisBW12.500.07100.0043.1412.50-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.07100.0063.380.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.070.0032.47-0.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.070.0054.04-0.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.070.0037.20-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.07100.0064.850.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0055.810.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.07100.0055.900.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.070.0062.15-0.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.070.0015.68-0.00-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.000.070.0044.57-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.070.0020.87-0.00-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.070.0046.93-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0750.0062.510.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.07100.0050.080.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.07100.0057.560.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0038.65-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.070.0024.22-0.00-0.04
Texas St.SB0.000.07100.0052.850.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0733.3363.82-0.000.02
TroySB0.000.070.0046.30-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.070.0043.40-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0766.6770.360.000.03
UTSACUSA0.000.070.0028.13-0.00-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0750.0052.540.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.07100.0065.850.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.0733.3338.39-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.07100.0054.180.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.07100.0075.400.000.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.070.0034.69-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.07100.0065.750.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.07100.0065.630.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0766.6766.940.000.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0750.0052.120.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0775.0062.010.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.070.0023.20-0.00-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0733.3338.44-0.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.07100.0082.150.000.04
San Jose St.MWC0.000.070.0020.69-0.00-0.04
SMUAmer0.000.0733.3367.72-0.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.07100.0044.620.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0766.6760.730.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.070.0053.38-0.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0750.0062.910.000.02
WyomingMWC0.000.07100.0056.150.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0666.6742.560.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0625.0022.09-0.00-0.04
IowaB100.000.0650.0067.840.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.060.0037.45-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.060.0049.10-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.06100.0050.390.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0650.0062.660.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.060.0067.54-0.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0666.6752.470.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.06100.0041.370.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.06100.0068.940.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0027.18-0.00-0.03
KansasB120.000.0650.0060.200.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0034.37-0.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0053.870.000.00
TexasB120.000.06100.0084.130.000.04
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0068.580.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0650.0057.440.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0450.0054.170.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.040.0069.29-0.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0366.6763.580.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0038.98-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0074.210.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6759.850.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.03100.0069.310.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6769.310.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0350.0021.230.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.03100.0066.870.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6760.220.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.030.0033.70-0.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0366.6748.270.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0041.45-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0028.95-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.03100.0058.280.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.03100.0068.420.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0041.53-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0350.0052.770.000.00
MontanaBSky0.000.030.0049.81-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0047.54-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0045.610.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0366.6746.160.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0069.630.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0325.0033.23-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0366.6738.520.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0366.6756.820.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0046.320.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0053.20-0.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0038.83-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0031.91-0.00-0.01