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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Missouri St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:246.0
Current RPI:246
Expected SOS:113
Current SOS:113
Current Record:9-20
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Record:5-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-3
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:198
Expected OOC SOS:123



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-20246.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Missouri St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Eastern Illinois (173.0)OVCH64-53W100%0.0
11-22Texas Tech (183.0)B12A80-68L0%0.0
11-26Colorado St. (29.0)MWCN76-61L0%0.0
11-29Washington St. (169.0)P12N89-84L0%0.0
12-4Arkansas Little Rock (276.0)SBH73-68W100%0.0
12-13Southeast Missouri St. (289.0)OVCA61-73W100%0.0
12-15Oral Roberts (163.0)SumA80-61L0%0.0
12-17Tulsa (45.0)AmerA74-70L0%0.0
12-20Eastern Michigan (139.0)MACH65-77L0%0.0
12-22Oral Roberts (163.0)SumH52-45W100%0.0
12-31Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCA50-53W100%0.0
1-3Drake (269.0)MVCH62-37W100%0.0
1-7Indiana St. (190.0)MVCA71-56L0%0.0
1-11Illinois St. (62.0)MVCH55-69L0%0.0
1-14Evansville (118.0)MVCH54-56L0%0.0
1-18Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCA60-46L0%0.0
1-21Wichita St. (17.0)MVCH53-76L0%0.0
1-24Bradley (288.0)MVCA61-59L0%0.0
1-28Illinois St. (62.0)MVCA67-57L0%0.0
1-31Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCH52-46W100%0.0
2-4Loyola Chicago (123.0)MVCH50-53L0%0.0
2-7Wichita St. (17.0)MVCA78-35L0%0.0
2-10Evansville (118.0)MVCA73-66L0%0.0
2-15Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCH57-68L0%0.0
2-18Indiana St. (190.0)MVCH60-56W100%0.0
2-22Drake (269.0)MVCA78-43L0%0.0
2-25Bradley (288.0)MVCH80-77W100%0.0
2-28Loyola Chicago (123.0)MVCA65-51L0%0.0
3-5Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCN48-55L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Missouri St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Missouri St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Missouri St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Missouri St.MVC26.4826.4828.0028.00-11.65-11.65
Southern IllinoisMVC6.156.1534.4834.48-1.91-1.91
Northern IowaMVC4.564.5690.3290.323.683.68
Illinois St.MVC4.564.5660.0060.000.910.91
Wichita St.MVC4.554.5586.2186.213.303.30
BradleyMVC4.534.5323.3323.33-2.42-2.42
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.524.5253.5753.570.320.32
Indiana St.MVC4.474.4746.4346.43-0.32-0.32
DrakeMVC4.444.4425.0025.00-2.22-2.22
EvansvilleMVC4.444.4457.1457.140.630.63
Oral RobertsSum3.483.4853.5753.570.250.25
TulsaAmer1.871.8770.0070.000.750.75
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.861.8640.7440.74-0.35-0.35
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.841.8453.5753.570.130.13
Arkansas Little RockSB1.811.8141.3841.38-0.31-0.31
Texas TechB121.781.7838.7138.71-0.40-0.40
Colorado St.MWC1.721.7280.6580.651.061.06
Eastern MichiganMAC1.721.7255.1755.170.180.18
Washington St.P121.721.7240.0040.00-0.34-0.34
Murray St.OVC0.370.3783.3383.330.250.25
IUPUISum0.340.3432.2632.26-0.12-0.12
MemphisAmer0.280.2856.2556.250.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.260.2621.4321.43-0.15-0.15
Saint LouisA100.250.2532.2632.26-0.09-0.09
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.230.2338.4638.46-0.05-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.220.2210.3410.34-0.18-0.18
Kent St.MAC0.200.2064.5264.520.060.06
DenverSum0.190.1940.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.190.1925.0025.00-0.10-0.10
Tennessee MartinOVC0.170.1757.1457.140.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.170.1770.0070.000.070.07
IPFWSum0.170.1748.1548.15-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
Fresno St.MWC0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
Ball St.MAC0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
Green BayHorz0.140.1473.3373.330.070.07
Miami OHMAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
OklahomaB120.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
TCUB120.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1134.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
South DakotaSum0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1123.0823.08-0.06-0.06
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
DetroitHorz0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
TulaneAmer0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1171.4371.430.050.05
DePaulBE0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
HoustonAmer0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Seton HallBE0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Kansas St.B120.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.110.1174.2974.290.050.05
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
UC DavisBW0.090.0979.3179.310.050.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Michigan St.B100.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
UMKCWAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
UTSACUSA0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
CaliforniaP120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.080.080.000.00-0.08-0.08
Air ForceMWC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0830.7730.77-0.03-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
TexasB120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
YaleIvy0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
CreightonBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0662.9662.960.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
IllinoisB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
HawaiiBW0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
OregonP120.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
SMUAmer0.060.0681.2581.250.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
TempleAmer0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
WashingtonP120.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
NevadaMWC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0586.6786.670.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
BYUWCC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
USCP120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
PacificWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00