Missouri St.

Conference:	MVC
Expected RPI:	203.0
Current RPI:	203
Expected SOS:	81
Current SOS:	81
Current Record:	9-22
Expected Record:	9-22
Current Conf Record:	8-12
Expected Conf Record:	8-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	1-4
Current OOC Record:	1-10
Expected OOC Record:	1-10
Expected OOC RPI:	291
Expected OOC SOS:	118

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-22	203.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Missouri St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-17	San Diego St. (30.0)	MWC	H	44-60	L	0%
11-19	Jacksonville (281.0)	ASun	H	58-64	L	0%
11-24	South Carolina (222.0)	SEC	N	74-67	L	0%
11-25	Southern Methodist (219.0)	CUSA	N	62-61	L	0%
12-1	Oral Roberts (151.0)	Slnd	H	52-72	L	0%
12-5	Tulsa (127.0)	CUSA	A	61-42	L	0%
12-8	Oklahoma St. (27.0)	B12	A	62-42	L	0%
12-15	Valparaiso (58.0)	Horz	H	54-62	L	0%
12-18	Alabama A&M (329.0)	SWAC	A	59-47	L	0%
12-22	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	A	71-51	L	0%
12-30	Southern Illinois (192.0)	MVC	H	70-59	W	100%
1-2	Evansville (106.0)	MVC	A	62-59	L	0%
1-5	Drake (143.0)	MVC	A	65-77	W	100%
1-8	Illinois St. (117.0)	MVC	H	62-55	W	100%
1-11	Creighton (25.0)	MVC	H	52-74	L	0%
1-16	Indiana St. (74.0)	MVC	A	68-60	L	0%
1-19	Bradley (190.0)	MVC	A	69-66	L	0%
1-23	Wichita St. (37.0)	MVC	H	52-62	L	0%
1-27	Drake (143.0)	MVC	H	78-72	W	100%
1-30	Creighton (25.0)	MVC	A	91-77	L	0%
2-2	Evansville (106.0)	MVC	H	62-61	W	100%
2-5	Northern Iowa (83.0)	MVC	A	48-37	L	0%
2-9	Wichita St. (37.0)	MVC	A	79-50	L	0%
2-12	Indiana St. (74.0)	MVC	H	67-65	W	100%
2-16	Southern Illinois (192.0)	MVC	A	62-54	L	0%
2-19	Northern Iowa (83.0)	MVC	H	63-69	L	0%
2-23	Eastern Michigan (239.0)	MAC	A	54-57	W	100%
2-27	Illinois St. (117.0)	MVC	A	86-50	L	0%
3-2	Bradley (190.0)	MVC	H	64-56	W	100%
3-7	Southern Illinois (192.0)	MVC	N	61-53	W	100%
3-8	Wichita St. (37.0)	MVC	N	69-59	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Missouri St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Missouri St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Missouri St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Missouri St.	MVC	26.45	26.45	27.01	27.01	-12.16	-12.16
Wichita St.	MVC	5.83	5.83	74.19	74.19	2.82	2.82
Southern Illinois	MVC	5.69	5.69	44.44	44.44	-0.63	-0.63
Creighton	MVC	4.35	4.35	78.12	78.12	2.44	2.44
Illinois St.	MVC	4.26	4.26	54.84	54.84	0.41	0.41
Indiana St.	MVC	4.26	4.26	55.17	55.17	0.44	0.44
Drake	MVC	4.23	4.23	48.28	48.28	-0.15	-0.15
Evansville	MVC	4.21	4.21	55.17	55.17	0.44	0.44
Bradley	MVC	4.19	4.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	4.18	4.18	51.72	51.72	0.14	0.14
Tulsa	CUSA	1.81	1.81	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	1.66	1.66	28.57	28.57	-0.71	-0.71
San Diego St.	MWC	1.66	1.66	65.52	65.52	0.52	0.52
Southern Methodist	CUSA	1.66	1.66	43.33	43.33	-0.22	-0.22
South Carolina	SEC	1.64	1.64	41.94	41.94	-0.26	-0.26
Oral Roberts	Slnd	1.64	1.64	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Jacksonville	ASun	1.64	1.64	37.93	37.93	-0.40	-0.40
Eastern Michigan	MAC	1.61	1.61	43.33	43.33	-0.22	-0.22
New Mexico St.	WAC	1.61	1.61	68.75	68.75	0.60	0.60
Oklahoma St.	B12	1.61	1.61	74.19	74.19	0.78	0.78
Valparaiso	Horz	1.61	1.61	77.42	77.42	0.88	0.88
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.21	0.21	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.21	0.21	85.29	85.29	0.15	0.15
Miami OH	MAC	0.18	0.18	26.67	26.67	-0.09	-0.09
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.18	0.18	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.18	0.18	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
UAB	CUSA	0.17	0.17	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.17	0.17	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
New Orleans	ind	0.16	0.16	18.18	18.18	-0.10	-0.10
Memphis	CUSA	0.16	0.16	88.24	88.24	0.12	0.12
Rice	CUSA	0.16	0.16	13.79	13.79	-0.11	-0.11
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.15	0.15	20.00	20.00	-0.09	-0.09
St. Mary's	WCC	0.15	0.15	81.25	81.25	0.09	0.09
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.15	0.15	71.88	71.88	0.06	0.06
Fresno St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	32.14	32.14	-0.05	-0.05
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.13	0.13	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Iowa St.	B12	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Wyoming	MWC	0.13	0.13	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.13	0.13	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Boise St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	65.52	65.52	0.04	0.04
IUPUI	Sum	0.13	0.13	13.33	13.33	-0.09	-0.09
Wright St.	Horz	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Western Michigan	MAC	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.12	0.12	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.12	0.12	67.86	67.86	0.04	0.04
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	17.86	17.86	-0.07	-0.07
St. Louis	A10	0.11	0.11	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
UC Davis	BW	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Nevada	MWC	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Houston	CUSA	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.10	0.10	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.10	0.10	13.79	13.79	-0.07	-0.07
Central Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Christian	B12	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Denver	WAC	0.10	0.10	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.10	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
California	P12	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.10	0.10	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	-0.08	-0.08
Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	28.12	28.12	-0.04	-0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.08	0.08	28.00	28.00	-0.04	-0.04
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
UCLA	P12	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.08	0.08	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.08	0.08	85.19	85.19	0.05	0.05
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Murray St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.08	0.08	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Baylor	B12	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
South Florida	BE	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.07	0.07	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.07	0.07	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.07	0.07	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.07	0.07	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.07	0.07	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Western Carolina	SC	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.00	10.00	-0.04	-0.04
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	93.75	93.75	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00