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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Missouri St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:124.0
Current RPI:88
Expected SOS:204
Current SOS:174
Current Record:3-1
Expected Record:19-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:3-1
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:135
Expected OOC SOS:318



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-335.00.01%
25-438.50.13%
24-549.40.93%
23-660.02.66%
22-773.36.46%
21-887.311.51%
20-9102.116.48%
19-10118.918.82%
18-11136.117.50%
17-12155.512.15%
16-13176.17.69%
15-14196.23.57%
14-15216.81.37%
13-16235.40.57%
12-17254.10.14%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Missouri St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACH96-62W100%0.0
11-13Jacksonville St. (187.2)OVCH91-65W100%0.0
11-23DePaul (206.1)BEA68-66L0%0.0
11-27North Dakota St. (130.6)SumH64-50W100%0.0
12-3Air Force (197.4)MWCA0-063%4.0
12-7Southeast Missouri St. (266.5)OVCA0-080%10.2
12-10Valparaiso (74.9)HorzH0-063%3.9
12-14Oral Roberts (305.9)SumH0-094%18.7
12-17Southeast Missouri St. (266.5)OVCH0-091%16.4
12-19Chicago St. (292.4)WACH0-097%21.8
12-22USC (44.4)P12N0-031%-5.8
12-28Northern Iowa (99.9)MVCA0-037%-3.9
12-31Indiana St. (156.7)MVCH0-069%6.1
1-4Illinois St. (74.7)MVCA0-032%-5.6
1-7Southern Illinois (157.0)MVCH0-076%8.4
1-11Evansville (205.3)MVCH0-080%10.2
1-15Loyola Chicago (161.7)MVCA0-051%0.4
1-18Indiana St. (156.7)MVCA0-050%-0.1
1-21Bradley (274.4)MVCH0-090%15.5
1-24Drake (306.7)MVCH0-092%16.8
1-28Southern Illinois (157.0)MVCA0-057%2.2
1-31Loyola Chicago (161.7)MVCH0-071%6.5
2-4Evansville (205.3)MVCA0-063%4.0
2-9Wichita St. (34.2)MVCA0-08%-16.7
2-12Northern Iowa (99.9)MVCH0-057%2.3
2-15Illinois St. (74.7)MVCH0-052%0.6
2-18Drake (306.7)MVCA0-081%10.6
2-22Bradley (274.4)MVCA0-078%9.3
2-25Wichita St. (34.2)MVCH0-019%-10.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Missouri St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Missouri St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Missouri St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Missouri St.MVC29.2326.4775.0063.9314.617.38
BradleyMVC0.004.5050.0030.230.00-1.78
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.004.4466.6755.560.000.49
Indiana St.MVC0.004.4333.3347.28-0.00-0.24
DrakeMVC1.254.430.0021.90-1.25-2.49
Southern IllinoisMVC0.004.4150.0047.620.00-0.21
Wichita St.MVC0.004.4171.4386.010.003.17
EvansvilleMVC0.004.4033.3341.27-0.00-0.77
Northern IowaMVC0.004.4040.0057.86-0.000.69
Illinois St.MVC0.004.4050.0066.810.001.48
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.003.6050.0040.290.00-0.70
Chicago St.WAC0.001.900.0017.83-0.00-1.22
DePaulBE12.501.8875.0033.756.25-0.61
Oral RobertsSum0.001.850.0019.79-0.00-1.12
ValparaisoHorz0.001.8285.7175.710.000.93
Jacksonville St.OVC12.501.7966.6749.014.17-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum12.501.7960.0064.192.500.51
Air ForceMWC0.001.7250.0042.910.00-0.24
Alabama A&MSWAC12.501.720.0013.78-12.50-1.25
USCP120.001.72100.0075.610.000.88
Murray St.OVC1.040.3642.8661.90-0.150.09
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.3114.2937.52-0.00-0.08
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.2775.0054.320.000.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.2750.0043.490.00-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.000.220.0022.69-0.00-0.12
XavierBE1.040.21100.0074.801.040.11
Austin PeayOVC0.000.2140.0041.65-0.00-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.2157.1440.590.00-0.04
Fort WayneSum0.000.1966.6770.930.000.08
IUPUISum0.000.1928.5747.72-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.1957.1447.220.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.1971.4356.050.000.02
TulsaAmer0.890.1860.0039.200.18-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1820.0041.93-0.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC1.040.1814.2928.66-0.74-0.08
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.180.0032.39-0.00-0.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1850.0050.290.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.1785.7175.950.000.09
Wright St.Horz0.000.1771.4355.750.000.02
DenverSum0.000.1633.3341.11-0.00-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1533.3348.73-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.890.15100.0059.480.890.03
OklahomaB120.000.1583.3351.920.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.1560.0048.590.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.1533.3326.75-0.00-0.07
Ball St.MAC0.000.1550.0052.330.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz1.250.1533.3333.15-0.42-0.05
North DakotaBSky0.000.1333.3353.29-0.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1325.0024.28-0.00-0.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1250.0046.780.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.1257.1448.410.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.1240.0061.37-0.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1242.8646.78-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1260.0039.610.00-0.03
Iowa St.B120.000.1271.4368.970.000.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.120.0042.55-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.120.0024.77-0.00-0.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.1283.3370.360.000.05
OaklandHorz0.000.1283.3378.430.000.07
Arizona St.P120.000.1257.1436.050.00-0.03
George MasonA100.000.1257.1442.940.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1250.0052.140.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.1250.0058.980.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.120.0038.35-0.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1242.8645.30-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1275.0074.990.000.06
ToledoMAC0.000.1242.8650.36-0.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.1250.0053.560.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.12100.0075.690.000.06
NevadaMWC0.000.1275.0070.470.000.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1257.1467.020.000.04
UNLVMWC0.000.1271.4349.590.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.000.1250.0036.820.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.0971.4358.670.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0971.4368.100.000.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.0983.3362.840.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.890.0914.2934.56-0.64-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0933.3343.64-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.890.0942.8634.17-0.13-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.09100.0076.650.000.05
Michigan St.B100.000.0950.0061.590.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0971.4346.010.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0975.0059.100.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0983.3361.490.000.02
OregonP120.000.0971.4366.730.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0650.0059.670.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0056.260.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.940.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0620.0042.63-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0660.0058.950.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0614.2929.15-0.00-0.03
IllinoisB100.000.0657.1442.660.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0683.3375.060.000.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0070.140.000.02
IowaB100.000.0642.8644.33-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0685.7180.010.000.04
NorthwesternB100.000.0671.4366.220.000.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0614.2947.44-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0628.5734.18-0.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0685.7173.010.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0671.4350.570.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0616.6732.62-0.00-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0616.6734.31-0.00-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0640.0037.44-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0625.0056.92-0.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.170.000.03
ColoradoP120.000.0671.4359.850.000.01
TroySB0.000.0633.3332.23-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.0685.7170.990.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.0671.4368.660.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0616.6730.27-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0640.0040.65-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0019.51-0.00-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.000.0650.0047.560.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0633.3348.71-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.1440.550.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0039.35-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4349.770.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0671.4363.090.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.23-0.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0685.7165.670.000.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0612.5048.98-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0683.3356.560.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0628.5723.76-0.00-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.0671.4356.280.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.600.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0671.4354.520.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.77-0.00-0.03
St. John'sBE0.000.0628.5733.92-0.00-0.02
UCLAP120.000.06100.0083.550.000.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0657.1464.940.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0083.120.000.04
WashingtonP120.000.0657.1452.630.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.060.0033.58-0.00-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0642.8637.60-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB1.040.0385.7168.390.740.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6756.360.000.00
High PointBSth1.040.0350.0051.260.000.00
NavyPat1.040.0328.5743.62-0.45-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.32-0.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0075.010.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC1.040.0366.6758.420.350.01
WisconsinB100.000.0375.0073.840.000.02
BaylorB120.000.03100.0074.460.000.02
Little RockSB0.000.0360.0057.900.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0357.1448.600.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0383.3369.840.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.0333.3345.58-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.890.0316.6730.02-0.60-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0366.6769.810.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0375.0047.510.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.410.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.480.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0320.0032.60-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0385.7156.490.000.00
MissouriSEC1.040.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.890.0314.2928.15-0.64-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0357.1455.810.000.00
Southern MissCUSA1.040.0333.3323.33-0.35-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA1.040.0357.1461.940.150.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0333.3338.20-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.45-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6756.020.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0383.3363.610.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.22-0.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.63-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0086.250.000.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0360.0043.970.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0325.0030.93-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0350.0035.230.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0371.4370.330.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC1.250.0325.0039.28-0.62-0.01
RutgersB101.250.0383.3344.770.83-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0328.5727.50-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0337.5036.24-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0357.1469.300.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0023.26-0.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.0371.4363.570.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.100.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0033.44-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0375.0061.040.000.01