live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Missouri St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:58.1
Current RPI:70
Expected SOS:103
Current SOS:133
Current Record:14-6
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:5-3
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:57
Expected OOC SOS:133



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-627.90.76%
23-735.06.17%
22-843.017.86%
21-951.726.81%
20-1061.424.77%
19-1173.515.66%
18-1288.65.89%
17-13106.91.74%
16-14126.10.31%
15-15144.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Missouri St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Western Kentucky (45.3)CUSAA80-85W100%0.0
11-15Southern (302.8)SWACH86-58W100%0.0
11-17North Dakota St. (167.4)SumH54-57L0%0.0
11-20Georgia Southern (119.1)SBN73-74L0%0.0
11-21Manhattan (204.8)MAACN69-65W100%0.0
11-22Florida Atlantic (239.8)CUSAN60-71W100%0.0
11-28Colorado St. (176.5)MWCH77-67W100%0.0
12-2South Dakota St. (65.2)SumN53-73W100%0.0
12-4North Dakota St. (167.4)SumA58-71W100%0.0
12-8Hampton (287.4)MEACH88-75W100%0.0
12-10Oral Roberts (220.9)SumA73-66L0%0.0
12-19Wright St. (110.8)HorzH66-50W100%0.0
12-22Loyola Chicago (57.4)MVCH64-59W100%0.0
12-31Valparaiso (151.6)MVCA50-67W100%0.0
1-4Northern Iowa (120.5)MVCH62-55W100%0.0
1-7Illinois St. (119.5)MVCA72-68L0%0.0
1-10Evansville (159.2)MVCA64-55L0%0.0
1-14Indiana St. (140.9)MVCH76-73W100%0.0
1-17Valparaiso (151.6)MVCH64-57W100%0.0
1-20Drake (160.6)MVCA61-58L0%0.0
1-23Bradley (123.3)MVCA0-057%2.0
1-27Southern Illinois (125.7)MVCH0-076%7.9
1-30Illinois St. (119.5)MVCH0-079%8.9
2-3Loyola Chicago (57.4)MVCA0-040%-2.9
2-6Indiana St. (140.9)MVCA0-054%1.2
2-10Evansville (159.2)MVCH0-082%10.4
2-14Southern Illinois (125.7)MVCA0-055%1.5
2-18Drake (160.6)MVCH0-083%10.6
2-21Bradley (123.3)MVCH0-077%8.4
2-24Northern Iowa (120.5)MVCA0-045%-1.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Missouri St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Missouri St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Missouri St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Missouri St.MVC26.6326.4571.4369.8611.4110.50
DrakeMVC2.974.2852.6348.290.16-0.15
BradleyMVC0.604.2865.0059.680.180.83
Loyola ChicagoMVC2.974.2883.3377.451.982.35
Indiana St.MVC3.094.2747.0647.80-0.18-0.19
Southern IllinoisMVC0.534.2555.0053.770.050.32
EvansvilleMVC2.764.2550.0046.680.00-0.28
Illinois St.MVC2.834.2544.4445.01-0.31-0.42
ValparaisoMVC5.274.2552.9452.380.310.20
Northern IowaMVC2.834.2547.0651.81-0.170.15
North Dakota St.Sum5.133.4643.7550.34-0.640.02
South Dakota St.Sum2.761.9176.4775.781.460.98
Oral RobertsSum2.711.8526.3229.93-1.28-0.74
Western KentuckyCUSA2.641.7972.2273.251.170.83
Wright St.Horz2.631.7572.2271.721.170.76
Georgia SouthernSB2.501.7264.7164.130.740.49
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.501.6940.0039.13-0.50-0.37
Colorado St.MWC2.501.6747.3742.75-0.13-0.24
HamptonMEAC2.501.6721.4343.33-1.43-0.22
ManhattanMAAC2.501.6752.6352.620.130.09
SouthernSWAC2.501.6729.4142.44-1.03-0.25
Nebraska OmahaSum0.260.3625.0028.01-0.13-0.16
South DakotaSum0.260.3073.6872.380.120.14
DenverSum0.270.2533.3336.48-0.09-0.07
Fort WayneSum0.200.2552.6351.690.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.130.2542.8635.24-0.02-0.07
Old DominionCUSA0.210.1878.9576.750.120.09
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.340.1822.2227.33-0.19-0.08
TulsaAmer0.260.1755.0053.320.030.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.200.1742.1146.00-0.03-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.130.170.003.07-0.13-0.16
Boise St.MWC0.190.1778.9576.990.110.09
NevadaMWC0.070.1785.7182.090.050.11
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.1742.1143.51-0.01-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.350.1529.4134.76-0.14-0.05
North TexasCUSA0.070.1544.4446.65-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.210.1527.7831.11-0.09-0.06
UMKCWAC0.270.1421.0524.75-0.15-0.07
Little RockSB0.130.1422.2225.25-0.07-0.07
MississippiSEC0.140.1452.6345.860.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.260.1444.4444.92-0.03-0.01
WyomingMWC0.190.1461.1156.830.040.02
Murray St.OVC0.130.1470.5975.950.050.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.210.1210.0019.63-0.17-0.07
UTEPCUSA0.220.1233.3334.10-0.07-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.210.1257.8966.260.030.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.1218.7536.82-0.04-0.03
UNLVMWC0.190.1273.6865.260.090.04
CharlotteCUSA0.140.1223.5325.64-0.08-0.06
MinnesotaB100.200.1263.6457.630.060.02
RiderMAAC0.230.1265.0065.320.070.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.1243.7554.11-0.020.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.1212.5025.45-0.05-0.06
Ball St.MAC0.200.1261.1158.700.040.02
Green BayHorz0.140.1225.0027.94-0.07-0.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.1260.0062.030.010.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.1252.6355.290.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.140.1268.4263.650.050.03
IowaB100.200.1247.6244.02-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.130.1237.5031.76-0.03-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1145.0047.07-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.110.0010.67-0.14-0.09
SamfordSC0.200.1127.7832.66-0.09-0.04
UTSACUSA0.080.1141.1839.65-0.01-0.02
ColoradoP120.190.1160.0053.720.040.01
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1166.6763.420.040.03
IUPUIHorz0.070.1127.7829.83-0.03-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.1138.8943.43-0.02-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.070.1145.0048.56-0.01-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.1136.8432.76-0.03-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.060.1158.8262.820.010.03
San Jose St.MWC0.060.1111.7612.81-0.05-0.08
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.0927.7834.50-0.07-0.03
XavierBE0.150.0985.7180.080.110.05
FIUCUSA0.080.0935.2935.54-0.02-0.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0911.1117.680.00-0.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.140.0916.6724.26-0.09-0.05
OaklandHorz0.130.0961.9065.160.030.03
TowsonCAA0.210.0963.1665.970.060.03
OhioMAC0.140.0947.0648.41-0.01-0.00
SMUAmer0.140.0970.0070.570.050.04
VillanovaBE0.140.0994.7490.310.120.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.150.0915.7920.91-0.10-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.140.0972.2274.710.060.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0955.5656.740.000.01
UABCUSA0.140.0961.1164.130.030.02
DukeACC0.140.0989.4785.210.110.06
Austin PeayOVC0.130.0944.4446.00-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.130.0961.9063.140.030.02
PurdueB100.200.0990.4888.370.160.07
Texas St.SB0.060.0957.8950.210.010.00
Utah St.MWC0.190.0945.0045.49-0.02-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.190.0838.8944.08-0.04-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.130.0842.1140.46-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0850.0059.450.000.02
ArizonaP120.140.0680.0078.940.080.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0650.0052.460.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.069.5217.900.00-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.0672.2258.920.060.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0627.7831.710.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.140.0680.0078.850.080.04
StetsonASun0.140.0633.3336.93-0.05-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.140.0670.5969.630.060.02
USCP120.140.0671.4368.280.060.02
Appalachian St.SB0.150.0633.3337.23-0.05-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.150.0627.7838.14-0.07-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.150.0638.8940.78-0.03-0.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0689.4777.000.050.03
ElonCAA0.070.0652.6351.080.000.00
IndianaB100.070.0657.8950.710.010.00
Iowa St.B120.070.0661.1147.220.02-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.070.0680.0075.060.040.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0665.0056.340.020.01
ArkansasSEC0.130.0668.4264.200.050.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0629.4139.63-0.03-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.140.0641.1839.16-0.02-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0641.1838.47-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.0610.5316.750.00-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0630.0036.50-0.03-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.070.0642.1139.94-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0658.8249.760.01-0.00
BYUWCC0.070.0680.9576.240.040.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.0629.4133.20-0.06-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0625.0031.45-0.03-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0620.0023.340.00-0.03
DetroitHorz0.070.0621.0525.97-0.04-0.03
FloridaSEC0.070.0673.6871.560.030.02
Georgia St.SB0.070.0666.6765.520.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0636.8444.11-0.02-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0666.6773.210.020.03
NorthwesternB100.130.0655.0050.330.010.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0621.0539.48-0.04-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.130.0633.3332.94-0.04-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.070.0650.0045.870.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0661.1151.910.010.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.130.0652.9455.030.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0621.0544.26-0.04-0.01
TroySB0.070.0635.2942.76-0.02-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.130.0617.6523.86-0.09-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0621.0523.51-0.04-0.03
TulaneAmer0.130.0663.1657.890.030.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0647.3743.020.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0630.0030.99-0.03-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.0670.0058.090.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0629.4133.930.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0064.110.000.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0650.0054.890.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0678.9569.790.000.02
MaristMAAC0.060.0621.0522.02-0.04-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0627.7841.03-0.03-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0657.1453.050.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0635.0031.830.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0647.3746.920.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.060.0628.5729.94-0.03-0.02
VermontAE0.000.0675.0077.850.000.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.0656.2557.400.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.0372.2274.930.030.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.030.009.09-0.08-0.03
George WashingtonA100.080.0345.0043.48-0.01-0.00
KansasB120.070.0384.2179.750.050.02
Kansas St.B120.060.0373.6862.720.030.01
MontanaBSky0.060.0370.5973.150.030.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0311.1115.29-0.06-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0368.4254.090.020.00
Penn St.B100.060.0361.9055.760.010.00
PepperdineWCC0.060.0310.5318.34-0.05-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.080.0335.0026.12-0.02-0.01
Texas TechB120.080.0378.9571.810.050.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0330.0039.93-0.03-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0345.0045.03-0.01-0.00
VirginiaACC0.080.0394.7486.140.070.02
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0378.9577.380.040.02
William & MaryCAA0.080.0364.7159.990.020.01
BaylorB120.070.0361.1156.090.020.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0377.7879.150.040.02
George MasonA100.070.0345.0041.30-0.01-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.070.0352.6343.110.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.070.0347.3744.27-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0333.3333.77-0.02-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0316.6724.91-0.05-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0383.3381.370.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0326.6729.040.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0347.0641.41-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0326.3231.50-0.03-0.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0366.6767.700.020.01
UCFAmer0.070.0368.4260.860.030.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0371.4374.660.030.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0331.5832.72-0.02-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.060.0373.6869.640.030.01
FordhamA100.060.0331.5829.06-0.02-0.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0337.5046.69-0.02-0.00
HofstraCAA0.060.0357.8959.490.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.060.0326.3230.49-0.03-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0340.0043.35-0.01-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0383.3384.240.040.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0350.0051.380.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.037.1414.82-0.05-0.02
OregonP120.060.0365.0063.850.020.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0316.6724.45-0.04-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0342.1146.09-0.01-0.00
Seton HallBE0.060.0375.0067.890.030.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0333.3335.21-0.02-0.01
WisconsinB100.070.0350.0046.300.00-0.00