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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.

Missouri St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:123.0
Current RPI:123
Expected SOS:77
Current SOS:77
Current Record:15-16
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:112
Expected OOC SOS:68


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-16123.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Missouri St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Nevada (65.0)WACA46-68W100%0.0
11-15Arkansas St. (222.0)SBA46-77W100%0.0
11-26Tulsa (120.0)CUSAH69-64W100%0.0
11-30Oral Roberts (51.0)SumA68-63L0%0.0
12-3New Mexico (27.0)MWCA76-60L0%0.0
12-7Oklahoma St. (124.0)B12H67-72L0%0.0
12-10Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)SBA60-68W100%0.0
12-17Kennesaw St. (331.0)ASunH78-55W100%0.0
12-19Texas A&M Corpus Chris (319.0)SlndH66-53W100%0.0
12-22West Virginia (57.0)BEN70-68L0%0.0
12-23St. Mary's (28.0)WCCN61-77L0%0.0
12-28Creighton (24.0)MVCA65-77W100%0.0
12-31Drake (133.0)MVCH72-61W100%0.0
1-4Illinois St. (100.0)MVCH60-68L0%0.0
1-7Indiana St. (129.0)MVCA63-69W100%0.0
1-10Southern Illinois (255.0)MVCH77-65W100%0.0
1-13Northern Iowa (73.0)MVCA61-60L0%0.0
1-15Evansville (131.0)MVCH82-87L0%0.0
1-18Creighton (24.0)MVCH65-66L0%0.0
1-21Bradley (265.0)MVCA48-51W100%0.0
1-25Illinois St. (100.0)MVCA76-69L0%0.0
1-28Northern Iowa (73.0)MVCH63-51W100%0.0
2-1Wichita St. (12.0)MVCH67-74L0%0.0
2-4Drake (133.0)MVCA39-57W100%0.0
2-8Southern Illinois (255.0)MVCA54-56W100%0.0
2-12Bradley (265.0)MVCH64-53W100%0.0
2-15Wichita St. (12.0)MVCA73-58L0%0.0
2-18Old Dominion (103.0)CAAH67-73L0%0.0
2-22Indiana St. (129.0)MVCH46-59L0%0.0
2-25Evansville (131.0)MVCA75-70L0%0.0
3-2Evansville (131.0)MVCN72-64L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Missouri St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Missouri St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Missouri St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Missouri St.MVC26.3726.3748.4348.43-0.83-0.83
EvansvilleMVC5.715.7144.4444.44-0.63-0.63
CreightonMVC4.324.3287.1087.103.203.20
Illinois St.MVC4.294.2958.0658.060.690.69
Wichita St.MVC4.234.2382.7682.762.772.77
Indiana St.MVC4.214.2155.1755.170.440.44
Northern IowaMVC4.204.2058.6258.620.720.72
DrakeMVC4.204.2055.1755.170.430.43
BradleyMVC4.194.1923.3323.33-2.23-2.23
Southern IllinoisMVC4.154.1528.5728.57-1.78-1.78
TulsaCUSA1.771.7756.6756.670.240.24
Arkansas Little RockSB1.761.7648.2848.28-0.06-0.06
St. Mary'sWCC1.691.6982.7682.761.111.11
Oklahoma St.B121.691.6941.9441.94-0.27-0.27
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.691.6920.6920.69-0.99-0.99
Arkansas St.SB1.671.6740.6240.62-0.31-0.31
Kennesaw St.ASun1.671.676.906.90-1.44-1.44
Oral RobertsSum1.661.6681.2581.251.041.04
Old DominionCAA1.661.6659.3859.380.310.31
West VirginiaBE1.661.6658.0658.060.270.27
NevadaWAC1.661.6682.7682.761.091.09
New MexicoMWC1.641.6480.6580.651.001.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.210.2110.7110.71-0.16-0.16
Chicago St.GWC0.200.2010.7110.71-0.16-0.16
Texas TechB120.180.1825.8125.81-0.09-0.09
Western KentuckySB0.160.1645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Texas ChristianMWC0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
DenverSB0.160.1670.9770.970.070.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.150.1575.0075.000.080.08
Boise St.MWC0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.150.1568.7568.750.060.06
Western IllinoisSum0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.150.1551.5251.520.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
ButlerHorz0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Utah St.WAC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
RiceCUSA0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
Southern MethodistCUSA0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.130.1340.7440.74-0.02-0.02
North TexasSB0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
MissouriB120.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
UABCUSA0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
San Diego St.MWC0.120.1277.4277.420.070.07
Louisiana TechWAC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.110.1180.6580.650.060.06
St. LouisA100.100.1077.4277.420.060.06
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1023.0823.08-0.06-0.06
OhioMAC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.WAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1032.0032.00-0.04-0.04
BaylorB120.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.100.1082.3582.350.070.07
WyomingMWC0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
DrexelCAA0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
RutgersBE0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
OaklandSum0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Brigham YoungWCC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
San Jose St.WAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
MercerASun0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HoustonCUSA0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
XavierA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Arizona St.P120.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MB120.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Florida InternationalSB0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeSB0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
North DakotaGWC0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
PittsburghBE0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
NorthwesternB100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
OklahomaB120.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.070.0729.6329.63-0.03-0.03
BelmontASun0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HawaiiWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IdahoWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
StetsonASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Texas St.Slnd0.050.0534.6234.62-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0534.6234.62-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DavidsonSC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
TempleA100.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TulaneCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
LamarSlnd0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0596.4396.430.050.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Notre DameBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
LouisvilleBE0.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
South FloridaBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
George MasonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
IllinoisB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Seattleind0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0528.0028.00-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Southern UtahSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.053.123.12-0.05-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
CharlotteA100.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Longwoodind0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
MontanaBSky0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
PacificBW0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
MemphisCUSA0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
SyracuseBE0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
VillanovaBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.CAA0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Long IslandNEC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
VermontAE0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00