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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Missouri St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:210.0
Current RPI:210
Expected SOS:212
Current SOS:212
Current Record:16-16
Expected Record:16-16
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:206
Expected OOC SOS:333



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-16210.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Missouri St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Alabama A&M (351.0)SWACH96-62W100%0.0
11-13Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCH91-65W100%0.0
11-23DePaul (239.0)BEA68-66L0%0.0
11-27North Dakota St. (111.0)SumH64-50W100%0.0
12-3Air Force (250.0)MWCA83-70L0%0.0
12-7Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCA71-79W100%0.0
12-10Valparaiso (71.0)HorzH81-84L0%0.0
12-14Oral Roberts (292.0)SumH86-76W100%0.0
12-17Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCH71-66W100%0.0
12-19Chicago St. (318.0)WACH66-46W100%0.0
12-22USC (40.0)P12N75-83L0%0.0
12-23DePaul (239.0)BEN69-58W100%0.0
12-28Northern Iowa (163.0)MVCA64-68W100%0.0
12-31Indiana St. (234.0)MVCH81-75W100%0.0
1-4Illinois St. (33.0)MVCA74-71L0%0.0
1-7Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCH67-75L0%0.0
1-11Evansville (188.0)MVCH55-51W100%0.0
1-15Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCA77-71L0%0.0
1-18Indiana St. (234.0)MVCA68-73W100%0.0
1-21Bradley (220.0)MVCH76-62W100%0.0
1-24Drake (314.0)MVCH71-72L0%0.0
1-28Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCA85-84L0%0.0
1-31Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCH82-81W100%0.0
2-4Evansville (188.0)MVCA74-66L0%0.0
2-9Wichita St. (32.0)MVCA80-62L0%0.0
2-12Northern Iowa (163.0)MVCH52-55L0%0.0
2-15Illinois St. (33.0)MVCH66-67L0%0.0
2-18Drake (314.0)MVCA73-76W100%0.0
2-22Bradley (220.0)MVCA77-68L0%0.0
2-25Wichita St. (32.0)MVCH67-86L0%0.0
3-3Northern Iowa (163.0)MVCN64-70W100%0.0
3-4Wichita St. (32.0)MVCN78-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Missouri St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Missouri St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Missouri St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Missouri St.MVC26.5726.5747.2247.22-1.48-1.48
Wichita St.MVC5.665.6686.6786.674.154.15
Northern IowaMVC5.545.5446.1546.15-0.43-0.43
BradleyMVC4.244.2436.6736.67-1.13-1.13
Illinois St.MVC4.214.2180.0080.002.532.53
Southern IllinoisMVC4.144.1446.6746.67-0.28-0.28
EvansvilleMVC4.144.1444.8344.83-0.43-0.43
DrakeMVC4.134.1318.5218.52-2.60-2.60
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.114.1153.5753.570.290.29
Indiana St.MVC4.114.1135.7135.71-1.17-1.17
Southeast Missouri St.OVC3.303.3044.8344.83-0.34-0.34
DePaulBE3.263.2626.6726.67-1.52-1.52
Chicago St.WAC1.741.7410.7110.71-1.36-1.36
Oral RobertsSum1.671.6722.2222.22-0.93-0.93
Jacksonville St.OVC1.661.6658.0658.060.270.27
ValparaisoHorz1.641.6473.3373.330.770.77
North Dakota St.Sum1.621.6262.9662.960.420.42
Air ForceMWC1.561.5630.0030.00-0.62-0.62
Alabama A&MSWAC1.561.567.147.14-1.34-1.34
USCP121.561.5671.8871.880.680.68
XavierBE0.340.3461.7661.760.080.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.320.3250.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.300.3045.1645.16-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.250.2561.2961.290.060.06
WyomingMWC0.230.2353.3353.330.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.230.2344.4444.44-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.220.2246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.190.1923.0823.08-0.10-0.10
IUPUISum0.190.1940.0040.00-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.180.1829.4129.41-0.07-0.07
Austin PeayOVC0.180.1832.1432.14-0.06-0.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.170.1717.8617.86-0.11-0.11
LouisvilleACC0.170.1775.0075.000.090.09
South DakotaSum0.170.1764.5264.520.050.05
Fort WayneSum0.160.1657.1457.140.020.02
UMKCWAC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.160.1651.7251.720.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
ButlerBE0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
Morehead St.OVC0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.1553.5753.570.010.01
Saint LouisA100.150.1536.3636.36-0.04-0.04
DenverSum0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.140.1467.8667.860.050.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
George MasonA100.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Arizona St.P120.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
CreightonBE0.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
BelmontOVC0.120.1277.7877.780.070.07
TCUB120.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1121.8821.88-0.06-0.06
UC DavisBW0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1183.3383.330.070.07
Iowa St.B120.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
OaklandHorz0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
Fresno St.MWC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
ToledoMAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
Washington St.P120.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.100.1082.3582.350.060.06
UNLVMWC0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Seton HallBE0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
St. John'sBE0.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
IowaB100.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
MississippiSEC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
StanfordP120.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
OregonP120.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
WashingtonP120.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
BaylorB120.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
High PointBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
HowardMEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0218.5218.52-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.020.0262.0762.070.010.01