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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Missouri St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:234.0
Current RPI:235
Expected SOS:156
Current SOS:172
Current Record:9-14
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:6-6
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-3
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:298
Expected OOC SOS:240



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15187.50.47%
13-16201.95.43%
12-17218.423.21%
11-18233.939.43%
10-19249.325.47%
9-20263.55.98%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Missouri St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Oral Roberts (150.5)SumA80-65L0%0.0
11-19Butler (53.9)BEN59-93L0%0.0
11-20Minnesota (245.7)B10N69-74L0%0.0
11-22Mississippi St. (162.8)SECN84-70L0%0.0
12-1Utah St. (152.0)MWCH68-69L0%0.0
12-5Oklahoma St. (149.4)B12A63-64W100%0.0
12-10IUPUI (177.9)SumH88-74W100%0.0
12-13Tulsa (66.2)AmerH61-70L0%0.0
12-16Oral Roberts (150.5)SumH85-66W100%0.0
12-19Valparaiso (37.2)HorzA74-45L0%0.0
12-22Southeast Missouri St. (332.3)OVCH74-78L0%0.0
12-30Illinois St. (128.2)MVCA74-61L0%0.0
1-2Evansville (74.9)MVCH59-76L0%0.0
1-6Northern Iowa (115.6)MVCH59-58W100%0.0
1-9Loyola Chicago (237.5)MVCA54-56W100%0.0
1-13Wichita St. (36.9)MVCH62-78L0%0.0
1-16Bradley (304.2)MVCA42-61W100%0.0
1-20Drake (306.0)MVCA70-79W100%0.0
1-24Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCH65-80L0%0.0
1-27Indiana St. (146.9)MVCA68-59L0%0.0
1-30Illinois St. (128.2)MVCH84-81W100%0.0
2-2Bradley (304.2)MVCH77-71W100%0.0
2-6Evansville (74.9)MVCA83-64L0%0.0
2-10Northern Iowa (115.6)MVCA0-011%-13.2
2-13Indiana St. (146.9)MVCH0-040%-2.8
2-18Wichita St. (36.9)MVCA0-02%-21.9
2-21Loyola Chicago (237.5)MVCH0-056%1.6
2-24Drake (306.0)MVCH0-068%5.2
2-27Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCA0-019%-9.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Missouri St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Missouri St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Missouri St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Missouri St.MVC26.4426.4437.3935.91-6.67-7.45
Indiana St.MVC3.044.5050.0049.820.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC2.874.4270.8369.161.191.69
EvansvilleMVC4.954.4272.7374.562.252.17
Wichita St.MVC2.994.4072.7375.011.362.20
BradleyMVC4.904.3813.6413.83-3.56-3.17
Illinois St.MVC4.904.3854.5551.010.450.09
Northern IowaMVC2.864.3856.5255.780.370.51
DrakeMVC2.914.3821.7423.75-1.64-2.30
Loyola ChicagoMVC2.864.3845.4544.19-0.26-0.51
Oral RobertsSum4.443.5338.1040.42-1.06-0.68
IUPUISum2.361.9441.6741.18-0.39-0.34
TulsaAmer2.411.9363.6460.140.660.39
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.311.849.5212.54-1.87-1.38
ButlerBE2.261.8168.1866.020.820.58
ValparaisoHorz2.221.7880.9582.441.381.16
Oklahoma St.B122.271.7847.8343.67-0.10-0.23
MinnesotaB102.221.7522.7325.30-1.21-0.87
Mississippi St.SEC2.171.7240.9141.84-0.40-0.28
Utah St.MWC2.171.7245.0047.45-0.22-0.09
South Dakota St.Sum0.320.2777.2776.870.170.14
New MexicoMWC0.290.2458.3360.730.050.05
Western IllinoisSum0.230.2427.7829.16-0.10-0.10
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.280.245.007.21-0.25-0.20
Murray St.OVC0.270.2345.4549.67-0.02-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.280.2163.6462.150.080.05
IPFWSum0.280.2170.8368.550.120.08
Nebraska OmahaSum0.190.2156.5256.320.020.03
South DakotaSum0.280.2141.6741.23-0.05-0.04
NevadaMWC0.140.1855.0054.530.010.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.240.1847.8350.19-0.010.00
DenverSum0.180.1854.1751.790.020.01
Saint LouisA100.140.1836.3633.54-0.04-0.06
Seton HallBE0.140.1873.9169.970.070.07
Ball St.MAC0.230.1860.8757.190.050.03
TCUB120.270.1745.8339.34-0.02-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.130.1733.3333.04-0.04-0.06
IowaB100.090.1582.6180.550.060.09
BelmontOVC0.240.1566.6766.540.080.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1517.3920.65-0.09-0.09
South CarolinaSEC0.190.1586.3679.110.140.09
MississippiSEC0.190.1562.5058.930.050.03
CreightonBE0.140.1564.0062.090.040.04
TulaneAmer0.190.1533.3332.36-0.06-0.05
UMKCWAC0.190.1428.5732.73-0.08-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1240.9143.54-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.190.1263.6462.590.050.03
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1252.3850.420.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.090.1261.9059.540.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.190.1272.7372.110.090.05
DetroitHorz0.140.1247.6245.85-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.100.1245.4538.44-0.01-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.090.1259.0953.250.020.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1221.7422.74-0.05-0.06
ToledoMAC0.090.1260.8762.040.020.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.1245.4546.24-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.140.1286.9682.650.100.08
DePaulBE0.140.1233.3334.01-0.05-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.1243.4850.65-0.020.00
OaklandHorz0.090.1268.0067.980.030.04
ArkansasSEC0.190.1150.0053.100.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.140.1147.3749.93-0.01-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.190.1175.0070.990.090.05
TempleAmer0.140.1163.6459.810.040.02
Iowa St.B120.090.1173.9170.050.040.05
Texas TechB120.140.1159.0953.180.030.01
UNLVMWC0.100.0950.0055.190.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0950.0045.840.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.0933.3335.06-0.03-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.100.0965.0069.240.030.04
WyomingMWC0.100.0943.4842.49-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.140.0965.2260.260.040.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.0936.8442.89-0.04-0.01
BYUWCC0.100.0966.6769.490.030.03
MemphisAmer0.090.0960.8760.820.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.140.0950.0052.370.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.0966.6762.650.050.02
UC IrvineBW0.140.0972.7371.650.060.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.0959.0959.630.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0972.0071.540.040.04
KentuckySEC0.140.0975.0072.610.070.04
MarquetteBE0.090.0962.5056.050.020.01
MarylandB100.090.0987.5083.700.070.06
PurdueB100.140.0980.0077.930.080.05
George MasonA100.090.0933.3333.68-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.140.0965.2259.770.040.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0637.5040.54-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0625.0022.73-0.03-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.0614.2915.46-0.07-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0623.8126.56-0.02-0.03
FIUCUSA0.090.0640.9145.30-0.02-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.090.0670.8369.490.040.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0665.2268.600.030.02
USCP120.050.0678.2673.050.030.03
UtahP120.050.0669.5767.500.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0635.0034.80-0.01-0.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0654.5556.020.000.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0665.2264.220.010.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0670.8367.790.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0656.5257.280.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0631.8229.12-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0665.2266.200.010.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0613.6413.63-0.03-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.050.0656.5257.010.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.0630.4332.36-0.04-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.100.064.357.72-0.09-0.05
IonaMAAC0.100.0660.8760.720.020.01
Oregon St.P120.100.0661.9056.430.020.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0628.5733.36-0.04-0.02
ArizonaP120.090.0679.1778.350.050.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0673.9172.480.020.03
DelawareCAA0.090.0621.7423.34-0.05-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0643.4841.96-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0656.0052.830.010.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0684.2181.660.030.04
HoustonAmer0.090.0669.5766.580.040.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0650.0049.790.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.050.0645.8344.13-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.090.0679.1774.040.060.03
Miami FLACC0.090.0682.6177.520.060.03
MichiganB100.050.0669.5766.220.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0620.0022.32-0.05-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0627.7834.43-0.04-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0683.3378.390.030.03
NorthwesternB100.090.0664.0062.060.030.01
RichmondA100.050.0654.5554.470.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0621.7420.37-0.00-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0682.6178.910.060.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0630.4331.20-0.04-0.02
SMUAmer0.050.0690.9186.110.040.04
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0615.0015.34-0.06-0.04
St. John'sBE0.090.0625.0023.40-0.05-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0672.2275.580.020.03
TennesseeSEC0.090.0650.0048.130.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0678.2677.860.030.03
UABCUSA0.090.0682.6179.370.060.03
UCFAmer0.050.0650.0044.860.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0668.1871.320.030.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0687.5086.910.040.04
VirginiaACC0.090.0683.3378.470.060.03
Washington St.P120.050.0636.3631.98-0.01-0.02
XavierBE0.050.0687.5081.810.040.04
AuburnSEC0.050.0639.1335.43-0.01-0.02
FloridaSEC0.090.0666.6766.320.030.02
BaylorB120.090.0672.7366.400.040.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.040.0625.0025.08-0.02-0.03
KansasB120.050.0682.6179.190.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0660.8758.300.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.040.0665.2260.590.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0645.4551.34-0.010.00
PortlandWCC0.040.0640.0038.51-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.040.0645.0049.25-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.050.0666.6762.200.020.01
UTEPCUSA0.040.0652.1751.920.000.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0679.1778.090.030.03
DaytonA100.050.0386.9682.300.040.02
DukeACC0.050.0375.0071.800.030.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0352.0050.250.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0345.0046.13-0.01-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0325.0024.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0339.1338.57-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0368.1866.650.020.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0333.3334.95-0.02-0.01
OregonP120.050.0382.6179.220.030.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0358.3357.170.010.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0390.4886.910.040.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0325.0030.01-0.02-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0358.3358.310.010.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0352.3854.080.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0369.5764.890.020.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0359.0955.300.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.040.0357.8956.090.010.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.0321.7423.40-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0342.8646.35-0.01-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.040.0334.7833.09-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0380.0081.600.030.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0334.7830.33-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0354.1751.880.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0325.0033.22-0.02-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0310.0013.14-0.04-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0328.5726.98-0.02-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0363.6461.420.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0360.0055.500.010.00
Penn St.B100.050.0350.0046.740.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.040.0333.3334.22-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0320.0019.68-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0361.9065.300.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.4554.14-0.000.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0331.8230.06-0.02-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0356.5259.860.000.01
VMISC0.050.0315.0016.72-0.03-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.0360.8755.830.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0324.0025.67-0.02-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0322.7324.97-0.02-0.01