live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Missouri St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:85.0
Current RPI:85
Expected SOS:105
Current SOS:105
Current Record:19-12
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:36
Expected OOC SOS:116



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1285.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Missouri St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Old Dominion (170.0)CUSAA67-79W100%0.0
11-16Tulsa (73.0)CUSAH96-93W100%0.0
11-20Grambling St. (348.0)SWACH97-67W100%0.0
11-24Hampton (204.0)MEACH81-67W100%0.0
11-26Liberty (311.0)BSthH54-52W100%0.0
11-29Texas A&M (148.0)SECN67-73W100%0.0
11-30Virginia (8.0)ACCN63-83L0%0.0
12-13Oral Roberts (191.0)SlndA67-70W100%0.0
12-17Louisville (19.0)AmerA90-60L0%0.0
12-21Alabama A&M (271.0)SWACH68-47W100%0.0
12-29Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCH81-78W100%0.0
1-2Illinois St. (134.0)MVCH78-70W100%0.0
1-5Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCA89-57L0%0.0
1-8Bradley (265.0)MVCA65-68W100%0.0
1-11Wichita St. (4.0)MVCH69-72L0%0.0
1-15Indiana St. (71.0)MVCA70-55L0%0.0
1-18Northern Iowa (109.0)MVCA94-89L0%0.0
1-21Evansville (214.0)MVCH64-61W100%0.0
1-25Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCH69-63W100%0.0
1-29Drake (174.0)MVCA84-74L0%0.0
2-1Bradley (265.0)MVCH74-61W100%0.0
2-5Evansville (214.0)MVCA54-66W100%0.0
2-8Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCA72-54L0%0.0
2-12Drake (174.0)MVCH69-63W100%0.0
2-15Northern Iowa (109.0)MVCH58-60L0%0.0
2-18Illinois St. (134.0)MVCA67-63L0%0.0
2-22Indiana St. (71.0)MVCH77-66W100%0.0
2-25Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCH72-56W100%0.0
3-1Wichita St. (4.0)MVCA68-45L0%0.0
3-7Illinois St. (134.0)MVCN53-48W100%0.0
3-8Wichita St. (4.0)MVCN67-42L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Missouri St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Missouri St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Missouri St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Missouri St.MVC26.4826.4861.6061.606.146.14
Wichita St.MVC5.895.89100.00100.005.895.89
Illinois St.MVC5.715.7151.8551.850.210.21
Indiana St.MVC4.364.3668.9768.971.651.65
EvansvilleMVC4.324.3241.3841.38-0.74-0.74
Southern IllinoisMVC4.274.2740.0040.00-0.85-0.85
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.264.2627.5927.59-1.91-1.91
Northern IowaMVC4.234.2346.4346.43-0.30-0.30
BradleyMVC4.214.2140.0040.00-0.84-0.84
DrakeMVC4.214.2146.4346.43-0.30-0.30
TulsaCUSA1.791.7965.6265.620.560.56
Grambling St.SWAC1.721.7215.3815.38-1.19-1.19
VirginiaACC1.721.7281.8281.821.101.10
Oral RobertsSlnd1.711.7146.4346.43-0.12-0.12
Alabama A&MSWAC1.671.6744.4444.44-0.19-0.19
HamptonMEAC1.661.6662.0762.070.400.40
LibertyBSth1.661.6628.5728.57-0.71-0.71
Old DominionCUSA1.641.6450.0050.000.000.00
LouisvilleAmer1.611.6184.8584.851.121.12
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.611.6155.1755.170.170.17
Texas A&MSEC1.611.6154.8454.840.160.16
IUPUISum0.260.2610.3410.34-0.21-0.21
Saint LouisA100.250.2580.6580.650.160.16
Tennessee St.OVC0.210.2113.7913.79-0.15-0.15
Jackson St.SWAC0.200.2035.4835.48-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.200.2037.9337.93-0.05-0.05
DePaulBE0.180.1836.3636.36-0.05-0.05
VCUA100.180.1876.4776.470.100.10
Chicago St.WAC0.180.1836.6736.67-0.05-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.180.1859.2659.260.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.170.1730.3030.30-0.07-0.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.170.1757.1457.140.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
TulaneCUSA0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
Western KentuckySB0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
OhioMAC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
UICHorz0.130.1313.7913.79-0.10-0.10
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.130.1335.7135.71-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Ball St.MAC0.130.1310.7110.71-0.10-0.10
MarylandACC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.1283.8783.870.080.08
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
CampbellBSth0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
HowardMEAC0.110.1119.3519.35-0.06-0.06
UMKCWAC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Notre DameACC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
DavidsonSC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
SMUAmer0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
HoustonAmer0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
RadfordBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
WinthropBSth0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
DrexelCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
NorthwesternB100.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Arizona St.P120.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
RiceCUSA0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
BYUWCC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
RutgersAmer0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0624.0024.00-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0693.1093.100.050.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
VMIBSth0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MercerASun0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
UC DavisBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IPFWSum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
LSUSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
PacificWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
StetsonASun0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
BaylorB120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0246.1546.15-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
West VirginiaB120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
CornellIvy0.020.023.703.70-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
HofstraCAA0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
NavyPat0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00