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Through games of Jan 29, 2015.


Missouri St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:220.1
Current RPI:211
Expected SOS:108
Current SOS:102
Current Record:6-13
Expected Record:10-18
Current Conf Record:2-7
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-3
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:205
Expected OOC SOS:149



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-14135.40.09%
13-15155.50.94%
12-16177.25.49%
11-17196.416.82%
10-18213.929.50%
9-19230.327.58%
8-20246.815.38%
7-21263.43.57%
6-22279.90.62%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Missouri St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Eastern Illinois (162.7)OVCH64-53W100%0.0
11-22Texas Tech (192.8)B12A80-68L0%0.0
11-26Colorado St. (33.1)MWCN76-61L0%0.0
11-29Washington St. (181.3)P12N89-84L0%0.0
12-4Arkansas Little Rock (276.0)SBH73-68W100%0.0
12-13Southeast Missouri St. (283.1)OVCA61-73W100%0.0
12-15Oral Roberts (182.7)SumA80-61L0%0.0
12-17Tulsa (40.1)AmerA74-70L0%0.0
12-20Eastern Michigan (145.0)MACH65-77L0%0.0
12-22Oral Roberts (182.7)SumH52-45W100%0.0
12-31Southern Illinois (265.6)MVCA50-53W100%0.0
1-3Drake (263.0)MVCH62-37W100%0.0
1-7Indiana St. (188.5)MVCA71-56L0%0.0
1-11Illinois St. (84.6)MVCH55-69L0%0.0
1-14Evansville (77.6)MVCH54-56L0%0.0
1-18Northern Iowa (21.7)MVCA60-46L0%0.0
1-21Wichita St. (13.5)MVCH53-76L0%0.0
1-24Bradley (279.7)MVCA61-59L0%0.0
1-28Illinois St. (84.6)MVCA67-57L0%0.0
1-31Southern Illinois (265.6)MVCH0-065%4.2
2-4Loyola Chicago (124.4)MVCH0-044%-1.7
2-7Wichita St. (13.5)MVCA0-03%-21.1
2-10Evansville (77.6)MVCA0-017%-10.5
2-15Northern Iowa (21.7)MVCH0-018%-10.0
2-18Indiana St. (188.5)MVCH0-059%2.6
2-22Drake (263.0)MVCA0-061%3.0
2-25Bradley (279.7)MVCH0-071%6.1
2-28Loyola Chicago (124.4)MVCA0-022%-8.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Missouri St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Missouri St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Missouri St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Missouri St.MVC26.5426.4830.5932.49-10.30-9.27
Southern IllinoisMVC3.154.5940.0038.23-0.63-1.08
BradleyMVC3.224.5825.0025.15-1.61-2.28
Indiana St.MVC3.284.5842.1141.99-0.52-0.73
Wichita St.MVC3.164.5889.4787.282.493.41
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.654.5757.8957.750.100.71
Northern IowaMVC3.154.5590.0084.622.523.15
DrakeMVC3.224.5521.0521.39-1.86-2.60
EvansvilleMVC3.024.5573.6868.191.431.66
Illinois St.MVC5.724.5555.5657.230.640.66
Oral RobertsSum5.333.6047.0649.62-0.31-0.03
TulsaAmer2.911.9477.7872.671.610.88
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.701.9157.8955.850.430.22
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.691.9138.8938.78-0.60-0.43
Arkansas Little RockSB2.761.8838.8939.42-0.61-0.40
Texas TechB122.631.8550.0038.090.00-0.44
Colorado St.MWC2.631.7984.2180.931.801.10
Eastern MichiganMAC2.631.7953.3355.560.180.20
Washington St.P122.631.7942.1133.84-0.42-0.58
Murray St.OVC0.390.3880.0081.590.230.24
IUPUISum0.340.3138.1041.00-0.08-0.06
MemphisAmer0.400.3165.0061.640.120.07
Austin PeayOVC0.190.2526.3226.56-0.09-0.12
Saint LouisA100.260.2442.1136.43-0.04-0.07
DenverSum0.270.2242.8646.32-0.04-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.270.1961.1160.450.060.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.1938.8938.68-0.03-0.04
IPFWSum0.270.1938.8941.67-0.06-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.210.1973.6866.850.100.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.200.1966.6768.800.070.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.260.1910.0013.32-0.21-0.14
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.130.1815.0017.49-0.09-0.12
Ball St.MAC0.210.1635.2935.88-0.06-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.280.1644.4451.68-0.030.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.270.1650.0061.990.000.04
Green BayHorz0.200.1578.9577.960.120.09
OklahomaB120.270.1565.0066.310.080.05
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1542.1137.94-0.02-0.04
TCUB120.190.1570.0059.730.080.03
BelmontOVC0.200.1365.0063.610.060.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.220.1376.4771.500.120.05
Miami OHMAC0.150.1331.5830.52-0.05-0.05
OhioMAC0.150.1338.8935.46-0.03-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.070.1361.1156.260.010.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1363.1661.900.040.03
South DakotaSum0.000.1342.8644.87-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.140.1331.2527.76-0.05-0.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1336.8439.62-0.04-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.140.1373.3372.480.070.06
DetroitHorz0.200.1342.8642.94-0.03-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.1325.0037.81-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.070.1360.0052.500.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.270.1338.8943.58-0.06-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.130.1268.4269.400.050.05
Oregon St.P120.200.1268.4260.520.080.03
DePaulBE0.200.1250.0042.580.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.200.1270.0063.270.080.03
North DakotaBSky0.130.1223.5330.64-0.07-0.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.1257.8957.900.020.02
UtahP120.130.1278.9580.160.080.07
VCUA100.190.1285.0082.080.140.08
Iowa St.B120.130.1278.9569.330.070.05
Kansas St.B120.130.1257.1446.770.02-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1041.1838.33-0.03-0.02
Michigan St.B100.080.1066.6764.940.030.03
MissouriSEC0.210.1031.5830.44-0.08-0.04
UC DavisBW0.200.1076.4768.630.100.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.0910.5319.78-0.12-0.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.140.0923.8125.03-0.07-0.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.210.0933.3333.68-0.07-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0935.2932.57-0.02-0.03
UTSACUSA0.070.0947.0645.70-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.140.0930.0036.10-0.05-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.140.0965.0068.130.040.03
Utah St.MWC0.130.0957.8955.970.020.01
HoustonAmer0.130.0940.0037.07-0.03-0.02
ColoradoP120.130.0955.0052.260.010.00
San Jose St.MWC0.130.090.001.50-0.13-0.09
Oklahoma St.B120.130.0968.4260.880.050.02
Air ForceMWC0.130.0938.8937.19-0.03-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.0750.0058.100.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.140.0733.3331.30-0.05-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.140.0738.1045.39-0.03-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.0740.0042.37-0.03-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0760.0058.600.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.140.060.003.41-0.14-0.06
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0675.0073.780.030.03
CreightonBE0.140.0645.4540.61-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.140.0630.0030.15-0.06-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0623.5328.20-0.00-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.070.0663.1658.770.020.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0664.2967.370.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0642.1139.01-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0642.1140.50-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.070.0641.1837.58-0.01-0.02
ButlerBE0.070.0671.4370.710.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0657.8959.150.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0633.3331.55-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0676.1969.570.030.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0673.3372.090.000.03
HawaiiBW0.070.0665.0059.020.020.01
IllinoisB100.070.0661.9060.260.020.01
IonaMAAC0.070.0671.4375.000.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0652.9453.170.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.130.0680.0079.850.080.04
PortlandWCC0.070.0650.0049.080.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0638.1041.76-0.02-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0680.0077.800.000.03
South AlabamaSB0.140.0626.3229.19-0.07-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.070.0630.0031.92-0.03-0.02
TempleAmer0.070.0666.6763.860.020.02
Texas St.SB0.070.0643.7546.21-0.01-0.00
TroySB0.070.0629.4129.75-0.03-0.02
UABCUSA0.130.0645.0049.89-0.01-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0680.0079.210.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.070.0645.0046.67-0.01-0.00
AuburnSEC0.130.0647.3738.44-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.130.0657.1447.840.02-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.060.065.2610.53-0.06-0.05
George MasonA100.060.0633.3332.71-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.060.0665.0063.440.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0620.0027.23-0.04-0.03
NevadaMWC0.070.0623.5325.36-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.070.0665.0063.090.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0623.0835.91-0.03-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0615.0023.65-0.04-0.03
North FloridaASun0.060.0655.0060.480.010.01
NorthwesternB100.060.0650.0043.420.00-0.01
OregonP120.070.0665.0058.650.020.01
RichmondA100.060.0655.0056.930.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0652.3856.160.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0675.0075.670.030.03
StanfordP120.070.0675.0071.450.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0682.3584.880.040.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0652.9447.000.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.060.0655.5658.500.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.130.0644.4452.08-0.010.00
UTEPCUSA0.130.0665.0068.720.040.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0645.0037.40-0.01-0.02
WashingtonP120.070.0670.0063.130.030.02
WyomingMWC0.070.0678.9573.800.040.03
YaleIvy0.060.0664.7164.080.020.02
BaylorB120.000.0673.6869.380.000.02
KansasB120.060.0685.0077.520.040.03
TexasB120.060.0670.0067.320.030.02
West VirginiaB120.060.0685.0075.800.040.03
AkronMAC0.000.0368.4263.670.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0325.0031.44-0.03-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0380.0072.630.040.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0368.4266.110.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0350.0053.360.000.00
DaytonA100.080.0380.0077.330.050.02
LongwoodBSth0.080.0320.0024.57-0.05-0.02
MichiganB100.080.0360.0052.300.020.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0365.0063.000.020.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0372.2277.830.030.02
OaklandHorz0.080.0340.0043.64-0.02-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.070.0347.6246.47-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0322.2240.59-0.04-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0331.5844.68-0.02-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0315.7921.14-0.06-0.02
BYUWCC0.070.0366.6767.920.020.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0323.8126.37-0.04-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0358.3365.170.010.01
UCFAmer0.070.0342.1139.30-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.0390.4888.040.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0352.3853.710.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0352.9452.600.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.0395.2494.640.060.03
IdahoBSky0.070.0337.5043.26-0.02-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0315.7922.83-0.05-0.02
MercerSC0.070.0350.0052.660.000.00
MontanaBSky0.070.0352.9455.910.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0347.0652.46-0.000.00
PacificWCC0.070.0336.8433.24-0.02-0.01
RiceCUSA0.070.0325.0027.92-0.03-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0345.0040.47-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.000.0357.1455.730.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0355.0055.270.000.00
USCP120.000.0345.0038.97-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0328.5736.68-0.03-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.060.0340.0035.70-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.060.0380.0070.860.040.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0335.2933.08-0.02-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0340.0048.24-0.01-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0321.0533.18-0.04-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0328.5732.25-0.03-0.01