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Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


Missouri St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:154.6
Current RPI:232
Expected SOS:128
Current SOS:262
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:13-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:5-3
Expected OOC RPI:178
Expected OOC SOS:267



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-530.00.01%
20-636.00.05%
19-752.20.26%
18-863.40.95%
17-979.63.16%
16-1095.76.87%
15-11112.511.68%
14-12131.216.33%
13-13150.518.01%
12-14170.416.81%
11-15191.712.43%
10-16214.17.72%
9-17234.83.45%
8-18255.91.64%
7-19276.80.45%
6-20296.10.14%
5-21322.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Missouri St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Eastern Illinois (266.2)OVCH64-53W100%0.0
11-22Texas Tech (163.9)B12A80-68L0%0.0
12-4Arkansas Little Rock (199.0)SBH0-074%7.8
12-7Oral Roberts (232.6)SumA0-055%1.6
12-13Southeast Missouri St. (259.6)OVCA0-056%1.8
12-17Tulsa (100.1)AmerA0-025%-8.0
12-20Eastern Michigan (155.5)MACH0-065%4.5
12-22Oral Roberts (232.6)SumH0-077%8.7
12-31Southern Illinois (188.7)MVCA0-044%-1.8
1-3Drake (259.1)MVCH0-083%11.3
1-7Indiana St. (185.9)MVCA0-046%-1.1
1-11Illinois St. (76.0)MVCH0-041%-2.6
1-14Evansville (74.1)MVCH0-043%-2.2
1-18Northern Iowa (35.6)MVCA0-013%-13.4
1-21Wichita St. (14.6)MVCH0-018%-11.0
1-24Bradley (257.6)MVCA0-061%3.4
1-28Illinois St. (76.0)MVCA0-021%-9.8
1-31Southern Illinois (188.7)MVCH0-067%5.3
2-4Loyola Chicago (214.4)MVCH0-075%7.9
2-7Wichita St. (14.6)MVCA0-06%-18.2
2-10Evansville (74.1)MVCA0-022%-9.3
2-15Northern Iowa (35.6)MVCH0-030%-6.2
2-18Indiana St. (185.9)MVCH0-069%6.1
2-22Drake (259.1)MVCA0-064%4.2
2-25Bradley (257.6)MVCH0-081%10.6
2-28Loyola Chicago (214.4)MVCA0-053%0.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Missouri St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Missouri St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Missouri St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Missouri St.MVC31.2526.5650.0049.510.00-0.26
Southern IllinoisMVC0.004.9740.0048.11-0.00-0.19
Indiana St.MVC0.004.9675.0043.810.00-0.61
Wichita St.MVC0.004.95100.0084.660.003.43
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.004.9550.0041.160.00-0.87
Northern IowaMVC0.004.93100.0077.870.002.75
DrakeMVC0.004.9325.0024.84-0.00-2.48
EvansvilleMVC0.004.9375.0068.370.001.81
Illinois St.MVC0.004.9350.0063.890.001.37
BradleyMVC0.004.9250.0029.070.00-2.06
Oral RobertsSum0.003.8840.0038.78-0.00-0.87
TulsaAmer0.002.1060.0054.770.000.20
Eastern IllinoisOVC25.002.060.0037.53-25.00-0.51
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.002.0625.0044.18-0.00-0.24
Texas TechB1225.001.9966.6743.648.33-0.25
Arkansas Little RockSB0.001.9666.6751.120.000.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.001.92100.0053.070.000.12
Murray St.OVC0.000.4133.3367.86-0.000.15
IUPUISum0.000.3440.0030.81-0.00-0.13
Austin PeayOVC0.000.280.0030.92-0.00-0.11
MemphisAmer0.000.2750.0068.710.000.10
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.2166.6741.320.00-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.210.0034.53-0.00-0.06
Kent St.MAC0.000.2175.0066.110.000.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.2020.0031.23-0.00-0.08
Saint LouisA100.000.2075.0046.370.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.2066.6762.950.000.05
DenverSum0.000.2050.0060.810.000.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.2033.3354.73-0.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.200.0025.37-0.00-0.10
Ball St.MAC0.000.1833.3346.13-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1725.0051.72-0.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.1775.0077.520.000.09
OklahomaB120.000.1775.0064.910.000.05
Central MichiganMAC0.000.14100.0054.940.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.1460.0058.400.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1450.0071.940.000.06
BelmontOVC0.000.1480.0076.610.000.07
Miami OHMAC0.000.1440.0026.51-0.00-0.06
OhioMAC0.000.1466.6751.430.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.14100.0064.150.000.04
TulaneAmer0.000.1466.6739.850.00-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.14100.0061.670.000.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1420.0043.55-0.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1466.6753.510.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1450.0050.040.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1450.0047.310.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.140.0038.82-0.00-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1460.0051.520.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.1425.0026.31-0.00-0.07
Weber St.BSky0.000.1325.0052.85-0.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.1350.0046.630.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.13100.0061.120.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.1366.6726.420.00-0.06
VCUA100.000.1380.0073.080.000.06
Iowa St.B120.000.1375.0062.480.000.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.1333.3351.34-0.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1150.0047.220.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1150.0025.330.00-0.05
Michigan St.B100.000.1175.0072.040.000.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.100.0030.94-0.00-0.04
MissouriSEC0.000.1040.0036.41-0.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.1020.0042.29-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.100.0027.64-0.00-0.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1050.0040.550.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.100.0023.00-0.00-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.000.10100.0061.400.000.02
UC DavisBW3.120.07100.0053.383.120.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.07100.0057.480.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0725.0031.71-0.00-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0733.3359.02-0.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0750.0036.120.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0780.0058.430.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.070.0016.41-0.00-0.05
ToledoMAC0.000.0740.0060.24-0.000.01
UtahP120.000.0775.0073.450.000.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0733.3329.25-0.00-0.03
CincinnatiAmer3.120.07100.0061.083.120.02
CreightonBE3.120.07100.0060.973.120.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.070.0022.25-0.00-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0750.0027.510.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.070.0034.83-0.00-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.0720.0038.01-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.07100.0071.480.000.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0750.0051.010.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0760.0067.690.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.07100.0065.110.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0780.0079.380.000.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0733.3357.92-0.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0720.0034.26-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.070.0027.68-0.00-0.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0750.0042.760.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0720.0038.27-0.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0039.18-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0733.3350.63-0.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0766.6746.630.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.070.0043.61-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0733.3367.52-0.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.070.0062.99-0.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0775.0069.010.000.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0725.0035.38-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0766.6760.360.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0780.0074.520.000.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0750.0058.990.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0750.0065.300.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0775.0055.330.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0760.0050.320.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0725.0040.45-0.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0760.0055.090.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0766.6756.860.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.07100.0051.720.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0775.0055.290.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0760.0037.550.00-0.02
BaylorB120.000.06100.0070.110.000.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0018.95-0.00-0.04
George MasonA100.000.0620.0021.73-0.00-0.04
IowaB100.000.0666.6765.830.000.02
KansasB120.000.0666.6759.280.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6739.87-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0036.91-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0640.0052.52-0.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0683.3339.590.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0650.0064.050.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.060.0068.13-0.000.02
TexasB120.000.06100.0080.270.000.04
Virginia TechACC0.000.0660.0036.000.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0069.720.000.03
YaleIvy0.000.0680.0070.280.000.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0425.0049.12-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.040.0066.35-0.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0460.0066.190.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.040.0032.51-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.04100.0079.750.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0475.0064.180.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0475.0071.150.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0420.0022.02-0.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.0475.0066.610.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0475.0052.920.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0416.6726.44-0.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0475.0049.940.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0420.0034.64-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.040.0028.63-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0350.0067.000.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0333.3338.74-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0052.660.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.0366.6740.010.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0333.3345.47-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0316.6731.72-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat3.120.0340.0031.26-0.62-0.01
LSUSEC3.120.0360.0055.990.620.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0375.0038.820.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd3.120.030.0048.64-3.12-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0042.16-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0035.63-0.00-0.01