Nevada Las Vegas

Conference:	MWC
Expected RPI:	21.0
Current RPI:	21
Expected SOS:	41
Current SOS:	41
Current Record:	24-8
Expected Record:	24-8
Current Conf Record:	10-6
Expected Conf Record:	10-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-0
Current OOC Record:	14-2
Expected OOC Record:	14-2
Expected OOC RPI:	22
Expected OOC SOS:	131

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
24-8	21.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nevada Las Vegas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-14	Nevada (65.0)	WAC	H	71-67	W	100%
11-17	Canisius (333.0)	MAAC	H	95-70	W	100%
11-20	Morgan St. (286.0)	MEAC	H	92-55	W	100%
11-22	Cal Poly (219.0)	BW	H	75-52	W	100%
11-25	Southern California (270.0)	P12	H	66-55	W	100%
11-26	North Carolina (3.0)	ACC	H	90-80	W	100%
11-30	UC Santa Barbara (119.0)	BW	A	88-94	W	100%
12-4	Wichita St. (12.0)	MVC	A	89-70	L	0%
12-10	Wisconsin (23.0)	B10	A	62-51	L	0%
12-14	Texas El Paso (147.0)	CUSA	H	65-54	W	100%
12-17	Illinois (92.0)	B10	N	48-64	W	100%
12-19	Louisiana Monroe (317.0)	SB	H	81-63	W	100%
12-23	California (37.0)	P12	H	85-68	W	100%
12-28	Central Arkansas (321.0)	Slnd	H	124-75	W	100%
12-31	Hawaii (204.0)	WAC	A	69-74	W	100%
1-5	Cal St. Bakersfield (213.0)	ind	A	57-89	W	100%
1-14	San Diego St. (26.0)	MWC	A	69-67	L	0%
1-18	Texas Christian (114.0)	MWC	H	101-78	W	100%
1-21	New Mexico (27.0)	MWC	H	80-63	W	100%
1-25	Boise St. (173.0)	MWC	A	72-77	W	100%
1-28	Air Force (168.0)	MWC	A	63-65	W	100%
2-1	Colorado St. (29.0)	MWC	H	82-63	W	100%
2-4	Wyoming (83.0)	MWC	A	68-66	L	0%
2-11	San Diego St. (26.0)	MWC	H	65-63	W	100%
2-14	Texas Christian (114.0)	MWC	A	102-97	L	0%
2-18	New Mexico (27.0)	MWC	A	65-45	L	0%
2-22	Boise St. (173.0)	MWC	H	75-58	W	100%
2-25	Air Force (168.0)	MWC	H	68-58	W	100%
2-29	Colorado St. (29.0)	MWC	A	66-59	L	0%
3-3	Wyoming (83.0)	MWC	H	74-63	W	100%
3-8	Wyoming (83.0)	MWC	H	56-48	W	100%
3-9	New Mexico (27.0)	MWC	H	67-72	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nevada Las Vegas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Nevada Las Vegas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Nevada Las Vegas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	26.41	26.41	77.05	77.05	14.29	14.29
New Mexico	MWC	5.51	5.51	82.76	82.76	3.61	3.61
Wyoming	MWC	5.37	5.37	65.38	65.38	1.65	1.65
San Diego St.	MWC	4.12	4.12	79.31	79.31	2.42	2.42
Colorado St.	MWC	3.99	3.99	64.29	64.29	1.14	1.14
Texas Christian	MWC	3.94	3.94	53.57	53.57	0.28	0.28
Air Force	MWC	3.92	3.92	44.00	44.00	-0.47	-0.47
Boise St.	MWC	3.91	3.91	44.44	44.44	-0.43	-0.43
Southern California	P12	1.84	1.84	19.35	19.35	-1.13	-1.13
Cal Poly	BW	1.76	1.76	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
UC Santa Barbara	BW	1.71	1.71	66.67	66.67	0.57	0.57
California	P12	1.69	1.69	75.00	75.00	0.84	0.84
Nevada	WAC	1.64	1.64	82.76	82.76	1.08	1.08
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	1.64	1.64	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	1.63	1.63	71.88	71.88	0.72	0.72
Hawaii	WAC	1.61	1.61	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Texas El Paso	CUSA	1.61	1.61	48.39	48.39	-0.05	-0.05
Morgan St.	MEAC	1.61	1.61	32.14	32.14	-0.58	-0.58
Illinois	B10	1.61	1.61	54.84	54.84	0.16	0.16
North Carolina	ACC	1.59	1.59	87.88	87.88	1.20	1.20
Canisius	MAAC	1.56	1.56	17.24	17.24	-1.02	-1.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	1.56	1.56	24.00	24.00	-0.81	-0.81
Louisiana Monroe	SB	1.56	1.56	11.11	11.11	-1.22	-1.22
Wichita St.	MVC	1.56	1.56	83.33	83.33	1.04	1.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.38	0.38	72.73	72.73	0.17	0.17
Colorado	P12	0.34	0.34	65.62	65.62	0.11	0.11
Idaho St.	BSky	0.29	0.29	27.59	27.59	-0.13	-0.13
Pacific	BW	0.27	0.27	32.14	32.14	-0.10	-0.10
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.27	0.27	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.27	0.27	19.23	19.23	-0.17	-0.17
Denver	SB	0.27	0.27	70.97	70.97	0.11	0.11
Long Beach St.	BW	0.26	0.26	74.19	74.19	0.13	0.13
UC Riverside	BW	0.26	0.26	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
Fresno St.	WAC	0.24	0.24	35.48	35.48	-0.07	-0.07
San Jose St.	WAC	0.23	0.23	26.67	26.67	-0.11	-0.11
Idaho	WAC	0.21	0.21	55.17	55.17	0.02	0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.21	0.21	34.48	34.48	-0.07	-0.07
Stanford	P12	0.20	0.20	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.19	0.19	20.69	20.69	-0.11	-0.11
Drake	MVC	0.19	0.19	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.19	0.19	67.86	67.86	0.07	0.07
Indiana St.	MVC	0.19	0.19	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.18	0.18	13.33	13.33	-0.13	-0.13
Bradley	MVC	0.18	0.18	21.88	21.88	-0.10	-0.10
Iowa	B10	0.18	0.18	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.17	0.17	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.17	0.17	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.17	0.17	25.00	25.00	-0.08	-0.08
Utah Valley	GWC	0.16	0.16	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.16	0.16	30.77	30.77	-0.06	-0.06
Chicago St.	GWC	0.16	0.16	10.71	10.71	-0.12	-0.12
Utah St.	WAC	0.16	0.16	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.15	0.15	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.15	0.15	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.15	0.15	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.14	0.14	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
South Dakota	Sum	0.13	0.13	28.00	28.00	-0.06	-0.06
Washington	P12	0.13	0.13	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Tulsa	CUSA	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.13	0.13	16.67	16.67	-0.08	-0.08
Evansville	MVC	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.13	0.13	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.12	0.12	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Arizona	P12	0.12	0.12	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.12	0.12	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
UCLA	P12	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Lamar	Slnd	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Portland St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.11	0.11	80.65	80.65	0.07	0.07
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Portland	WCC	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
San Diego	WCC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.10	0.10	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Montana	BSky	0.10	0.10	79.31	79.31	0.06	0.06
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.10	0.10	37.04	37.04	-0.03	-0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.10	0.10	21.43	21.43	-0.06	-0.06
Rice	CUSA	0.10	0.10	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.10	0.10	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
Oregon St.	P12	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Boston College	ACC	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Oregon	P12	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Maryland	ACC	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.09	0.09	34.62	34.62	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.09	0.09	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	30.77	30.77	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Elon	SC	0.07	0.07	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.07	0.07	25.93	25.93	-0.04	-0.04
North Dakota	GWC	0.07	0.07	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.07	0.07	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Michigan	B10	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Army	Pat	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Texas	SB	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	10.34	10.34	-0.04	-0.04
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.05	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Utah	Sum	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.03	-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	11.11	11.11	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	96.43	96.43	0.03	0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	6.45	6.45	-0.02	-0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	64.29	64.29	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.02	0.02	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	78.57	78.57	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	94.12	94.12	0.02	0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00