South Carolina Upstate

Conference:	ASun
Expected RPI:	140.0
Current RPI:	140
Expected SOS:	244
Current SOS:	244
Current Record:	18-12
Expected Record:	18-12
Current Conf Record:	13-6
Expected Conf Record:	13-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-3
Current OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC RPI:	147
Expected OOC SOS:	213

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-12	140.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Carolina Upstate.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Arkansas (110.0)	SEC	A	83-63	L	0%
11-18	Texas Pan American (314.0)	GWC	A	66-70	W	100%
11-19	Toledo (246.0)	MAC	N	70-75	L	0%
11-20	Texas St. (287.0)	Slnd	N	74-82	W	100%
11-25	Texas Pan American (314.0)	GWC	H	78-63	W	100%
12-1	Jacksonville St. (216.0)	OVC	H	50-48	W	100%
12-4	NC Asheville (104.0)	BSth	A	88-81	L	0%
12-11	Dayton (81.0)	A10	A	72-68	L	0%
12-14	Ohio St. (7.0)	B10	A	82-58	L	0%
12-17	Stetson (267.0)	ASun	A	63-79	W	100%
12-19	Florida Gulf Coast (208.0)	ASun	A	75-80	W	100%
12-31	South Carolina (194.0)	SEC	A	72-66	L	0%
1-4	East Tennessee St. (179.0)	ASun	A	88-73	L	0%
1-7	Kennesaw St. (331.0)	ASun	H	68-53	W	100%
1-9	Mercer (132.0)	ASun	H	66-73	L	0%
1-14	North Florida (180.0)	ASun	A	62-69	W	100%
1-16	Jacksonville (264.0)	ASun	A	77-74	L	0%
1-21	Belmont (58.0)	ASun	H	79-78	W	100%
1-23	Lipscomb (225.0)	ASun	H	61-52	W	100%
1-27	East Tennessee St. (179.0)	ASun	H	58-54	W	100%
1-30	Jacksonville St. (216.0)	OVC	A	77-82	W	100%
2-4	Mercer (132.0)	ASun	A	61-47	L	0%
2-6	Kennesaw St. (331.0)	ASun	A	58-70	W	100%
2-11	Jacksonville (264.0)	ASun	H	70-66	W	100%
2-13	North Florida (180.0)	ASun	H	77-52	W	100%
2-18	Lipscomb (225.0)	ASun	A	61-62	W	100%
2-20	Belmont (58.0)	ASun	A	88-79	L	0%
2-23	Florida Gulf Coast (208.0)	ASun	H	87-74	W	100%
2-25	Stetson (267.0)	ASun	H	90-72	W	100%
3-1	Florida Gulf Coast (208.0)	ASun	N	61-71	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Carolina Upstate's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

South Carolina Upstate's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against South Carolina Upstate.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	26.54	26.54	65.62	65.62	8.29	8.29
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	6.00	6.00	46.43	46.43	-0.43	-0.43
Belmont	ASun	4.46	4.46	80.65	80.65	2.73	2.73
Mercer	ASun	4.40	4.40	63.33	63.33	1.17	1.17
East Tennessee St.	ASun	4.36	4.36	53.57	53.57	0.31	0.31
North Florida	ASun	4.34	4.34	51.72	51.72	0.15	0.15
Lipscomb	ASun	4.31	4.31	42.86	42.86	-0.62	-0.62
Jacksonville	ASun	4.31	4.31	25.00	25.00	-2.16	-2.16
Kennesaw St.	ASun	4.26	4.26	7.14	7.14	-3.65	-3.65
Stetson	ASun	4.25	4.25	30.77	30.77	-1.64	-1.64
Texas Pan American	GWC	3.42	3.42	26.92	26.92	-1.58	-1.58
Jacksonville St.	OVC	3.33	3.33	46.43	46.43	-0.24	-0.24
Toledo	MAC	1.84	1.84	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
Ohio St.	B10	1.81	1.81	78.79	78.79	1.04	1.04
Texas St.	Slnd	1.75	1.75	36.00	36.00	-0.49	-0.49
South Carolina	SEC	1.72	1.72	30.00	30.00	-0.69	-0.69
Arkansas	SEC	1.69	1.69	54.84	54.84	0.16	0.16
Dayton	A10	1.67	1.67	61.29	61.29	0.38	0.38
NC Asheville	BSth	1.67	1.67	68.97	68.97	0.63	0.63
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.28	0.28	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.27	0.27	69.70	69.70	0.11	0.11
Austin Peay	OVC	0.27	0.27	35.48	35.48	-0.08	-0.08
Alabama	SEC	0.24	0.24	65.62	65.62	0.08	0.08
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.22	0.22	6.90	6.90	-0.19	-0.19
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.19	0.19	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.19	0.19	60.00	60.00	0.04	0.04
Auburn	SEC	0.19	0.19	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.18	0.18	74.19	74.19	0.09	0.09
North Dakota	GWC	0.18	0.18	48.15	48.15	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.17	0.17	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.17	0.17	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.17	0.17	32.00	32.00	-0.06	-0.06
Charlotte	A10	0.16	0.16	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.16	0.16	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Troy	SB	0.16	0.16	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Marshall	CUSA	0.16	0.16	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.15	0.15	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.15	0.15	25.93	25.93	-0.07	-0.07
Chicago St.	GWC	0.15	0.15	10.71	10.71	-0.11	-0.11
Utah Valley	GWC	0.15	0.15	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.14	0.14	32.14	32.14	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Christian	MWC	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	96.43	96.43	0.13	0.13
Ohio	MAC	0.14	0.14	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Miami FL	ACC	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.13	0.13	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.12	0.12	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.12	0.12	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.12	0.12	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Florida St.	ACC	0.12	0.12	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
James Madison	CAA	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Tulane	CUSA	0.12	0.12	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Appalachian St.	SC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Presbyterian	BSth	0.11	0.11	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.11	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
Northwestern	B10	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Furman	SC	0.11	0.11	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	B12	0.11	0.11	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Samford	SC	0.11	0.11	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Memphis	CUSA	0.11	0.11	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.10	0.10	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Houston	CUSA	0.09	0.09	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.08	0.08	34.62	34.62	-0.03	-0.03
High Point	BSth	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	10.34	10.34	-0.07	-0.07
Wofford	SC	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	ind	0.08	0.08	22.22	22.22	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Maine	AE	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	94.12	94.12	0.07	0.07
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Michigan St.	B10	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.06	0.06	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	83.33	83.33	0.04	0.04
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	78.57	78.57	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	64.29	64.29	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.04	-0.04
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	3.12	3.12	-0.05	-0.05
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.02	-0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	18.75	18.75	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01