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Through games of Feb 6, 2016.


McNeese St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:328.2
Current RPI:329
Expected SOS:328
Current SOS:222
Current Record:3-14
Expected Record:7-18
Current Conf Record:3-7
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-9
Current OOC Record:0-7
Expected OOC Record:0-7
Expected OOC RPI:290
Expected OOC SOS:18



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-14268.40.58%
10-15290.14.35%
9-16308.414.68%
8-17324.026.19%
7-18335.126.90%
6-19342.118.57%
5-20346.27.12%
4-21348.51.46%
3-22350.00.14%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for McNeese St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13LSU (81.4)SECA81-70L0%0.0
11-20Oklahoma (3.7)B12A85-56L0%0.0
11-28Texas St. (279.2)SBH67-70L0%0.0
11-30Central Michigan (132.1)MACA74-73L0%0.0
12-9Louisiana Lafayette (108.6)SBA97-64L0%0.0
12-12Indiana (39.6)B10A105-60L0%0.0
12-22UCLA (70.9)P12A67-53L0%0.0
1-2Stephen F. Austin (95.6)SlndA86-57L0%0.0
1-5Houston Baptist (201.2)SlndA82-73L0%0.0
1-9Texas A&M Corpus Chris (117.7)SlndH68-77L0%0.0
1-16Sam Houston St. (189.2)SlndH72-68W100%0.0
1-19Abilene Christian (327.6)SlndA75-67L0%0.0
1-23Northwestern St. (332.4)SlndH75-74W100%0.0
1-25Incarnate Word (172.1)SlndH79-76W100%0.0
1-30New Orleans (312.0)SlndA76-64L0%0.0
2-1Southeastern Louisiana (332.5)SlndA82-80L0%0.0
2-6Nicholls St. (330.8)SlndA71-56L0%0.0
2-11New Orleans (312.0)SlndH0-056%1.7
2-13Northwestern St. (332.4)SlndA0-039%-3.2
2-15Southeastern Louisiana (332.5)SlndH0-059%2.4
2-20Lamar (330.8)SlndH0-062%3.3
2-22Central Arkansas (326.8)SlndH0-064%3.8
2-27Nicholls St. (330.8)SlndH0-074%7.1
2-29Lamar (330.8)SlndA0-038%-3.3
3-5Central Arkansas (326.8)SlndA0-040%-2.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

McNeese St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


McNeese St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  McNeese St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
McNeese St.Slnd26.2926.3615.2527.98-18.27-11.61
Central ArkansasSlnd0.714.9721.0526.23-0.41-2.36
New OrleansSlnd3.494.9623.5331.38-1.85-1.85
Nicholls St.Slnd3.514.9410.0014.58-2.81-3.50
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd3.514.9410.5324.06-2.77-2.56
Northwestern St.Slnd3.484.9120.0026.07-2.09-2.35
LamarSlnd0.804.7831.5830.46-0.29-1.87
Incarnate WordSlnd3.552.9660.0058.440.710.50
Stephen F. AustinSlnd3.402.9468.7574.571.271.45
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd3.592.9473.6870.451.701.20
Sam Houston St.Slnd3.672.9347.3751.27-0.190.07
Abilene ChristianSlnd3.512.9327.7829.19-1.56-1.22
Houston BaptistSlnd3.502.9050.0048.310.00-0.10
Louisiana LafayetteSB3.172.1855.5660.280.350.45
OklahomaB123.102.1485.7181.482.211.35
Texas St.SB3.092.1135.2936.14-0.91-0.58
UCLAP123.022.0454.5551.690.270.07
LSUSEC3.012.0363.6458.960.820.36
Central MichiganMAC2.942.0047.3749.36-0.15-0.03
IndianaB102.942.0078.2673.161.660.93
Arkansas Little RockSB0.160.2990.4886.860.130.21
Louisiana MonroeSB0.330.2342.8646.34-0.05-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.160.2242.8639.18-0.02-0.05
TCUB120.300.2143.4837.22-0.04-0.05
BaylorB120.250.1972.7366.500.110.06
Appalachian St.SB0.320.1926.0929.20-0.15-0.08
South AlabamaSB0.220.1833.3334.19-0.07-0.06
NebraskaB100.210.1754.1751.820.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.210.1778.2678.040.120.09
RiceCUSA0.170.1528.5729.71-0.07-0.06
UC RiversideBW0.150.1545.8341.66-0.01-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.080.1563.6459.230.020.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.230.1552.3847.050.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.080.1540.9139.32-0.01-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.240.1540.0039.00-0.05-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.240.1557.8956.090.040.02
TroySB0.160.1523.8126.69-0.08-0.07
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.1566.6770.540.030.06
ArizonaP120.160.1579.1778.310.090.08
ArkansasSEC0.160.1552.1755.930.010.02
UTSACUSA0.160.1413.6413.63-0.11-0.10
Arizona St.P120.230.1454.1751.650.020.00
Florida St.ACC0.140.1469.5764.880.060.04
Washington St.P120.280.1336.3632.01-0.08-0.05
WisconsinB100.260.1360.8755.860.060.02
AuburnSEC0.160.1240.9136.61-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.160.1265.2259.020.050.02
TulaneAmer0.170.1233.3332.33-0.06-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.1114.2915.47-0.06-0.08
Western MichiganMAC0.090.1133.3335.50-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.170.1165.2262.900.050.03
NorthwesternB100.140.1166.6763.430.050.03
HowardMEAC0.070.1138.1040.73-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.1121.0523.59-0.09-0.06
North TexasCUSA0.140.1133.3332.99-0.05-0.04
SMUAmer0.140.1190.4885.570.120.08
Texas TechB120.140.1059.0953.130.030.01
Austin PeayOVC0.210.1037.5040.51-0.05-0.02
RutgersB100.060.1021.7420.35-0.03-0.06
TexasB120.070.1069.5762.640.030.03
HawaiiBW0.140.1084.2181.680.090.06
MemphisAmer0.140.1060.8760.800.030.02
AlabamaSEC0.140.1059.0953.030.030.01
ColoradoP120.070.1069.5765.300.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.140.1045.4547.57-0.01-0.00
HoustonAmer0.130.1072.7368.020.060.04
KansasB120.130.1081.8277.570.080.05
KentuckySEC0.130.1073.9171.570.060.04
Wake ForestACC0.190.1043.4840.60-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.170.0847.8348.91-0.01-0.00
BradleyMVC0.080.0812.5012.85-0.06-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.089.5213.53-0.00-0.06
DuquesneA100.080.0863.6456.370.020.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0861.9059.650.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0845.0046.14-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0834.7836.50-0.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0854.1749.290.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.160.0745.4554.10-0.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.160.0752.1751.930.010.00
PurdueB100.090.0779.1776.550.050.04
St. John'sBE0.150.0726.0923.73-0.07-0.04
AkronMAC0.150.0781.8280.040.090.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0736.8441.46-0.02-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0763.1658.810.020.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0776.1968.220.000.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0759.0960.070.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0763.6459.960.000.01
MichiganB100.140.0769.5766.200.050.02
PepperdineWCC0.140.0756.5257.280.020.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0720.8323.63-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0741.6743.87-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0770.8370.930.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.070.0754.5552.810.010.00
HamptonMEAC0.070.0757.1459.450.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0747.6252.67-0.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.070.0760.8762.990.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0772.7372.030.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.070.0765.0066.790.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.140.0730.0034.56-0.05-0.02
Iowa St.B120.130.0773.9170.070.060.03
Kansas St.B120.130.0760.8758.450.030.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0747.8344.37-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0782.6179.550.040.04
CreightonBE0.130.0762.5059.780.030.01
Oral RobertsSum0.130.0739.1341.12-0.03-0.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0665.2266.080.020.02
IllinoisB100.060.0647.8344.55-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0681.8280.120.000.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.0621.7423.40-0.07-0.03
MinnesotaB100.120.0626.0927.82-0.06-0.03
OregonP120.060.0681.8278.150.040.04
Oregon St.P120.060.0661.9056.430.020.01
UNLVMWC0.130.0650.0055.190.000.01
USCP120.130.0678.2673.060.070.03
WashingtonP120.130.0665.2261.080.040.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0442.1145.73-0.01-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0454.1755.090.010.00
UABCUSA0.090.0482.6179.430.060.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0431.8236.12-0.03-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0452.3850.420.000.00
DrakeMVC0.080.0421.7423.66-0.04-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0454.1750.940.010.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0471.4368.720.030.01
Miami FLACC0.080.0480.9575.490.050.02
New HampshireAE0.080.0455.0053.160.010.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0465.2268.610.020.01
OaklandHorz0.080.0468.0067.970.030.01
PortlandWCC0.080.0440.0038.50-0.02-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.049.0917.11-0.07-0.02
RiderMAAC0.080.0441.6743.53-0.01-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0477.2776.850.040.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0472.0070.500.030.02
UC IrvineBW0.070.0472.7371.610.030.02
BuffaloMAC0.070.0459.0958.900.010.01
BYUWCC0.070.0466.6769.500.020.01
ElonCAA0.070.0452.1750.430.000.00
FurmanSC0.070.0452.1753.310.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0482.6181.140.050.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0425.0024.37-0.04-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.070.0463.6459.380.020.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0431.8230.48-0.03-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0459.0959.640.010.01
OhioMAC0.070.0461.9059.420.020.01
Weber St.BSky0.070.0465.0069.270.020.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0445.4546.29-0.01-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.070.0471.4369.840.030.01
HarvardIvy0.070.0335.0038.53-0.02-0.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0386.9686.370.050.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0336.8438.40-0.02-0.01
AmericanPat0.060.0330.4331.88-0.03-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0328.5728.55-0.03-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0363.6460.930.020.01
DukeACC0.060.0373.9170.060.030.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0340.9143.55-0.01-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0361.9056.690.020.00
GonzagaWCC0.060.0378.2676.870.040.02
IPFWSum0.060.0370.8368.570.030.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0345.4551.34-0.010.00
MarquetteBE0.060.0362.5056.260.020.00
MarylandB100.000.0387.5083.690.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0383.3383.010.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0340.9140.64-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0334.7830.36-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0379.1780.780.040.02
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0350.0052.340.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.060.0382.6178.690.040.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0350.0049.100.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.060.0365.2267.130.020.01
Notre DameACC0.060.0369.5765.850.020.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0358.3354.170.010.00
Penn St.B100.060.0350.0046.740.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0386.3679.150.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0350.0046.610.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0347.8346.87-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.000.0372.7368.540.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0356.5260.000.010.01