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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


McNeese St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:279.0
Current RPI:279
Expected SOS:302
Current SOS:302
Current Record:11-16
Expected Record:11-16
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-5
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC RPI:157
Expected OOC SOS:15



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-16279.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for McNeese St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Baylor (10.0)B12A80-39L0%0.0
11-29LSU (57.0)SECA83-72L0%0.0
12-6Louisiana Lafayette (142.0)SBH80-70W100%0.0
12-13TCU (131.0)B12A68-50L0%0.0
12-20Toledo (79.0)MACH69-83L0%0.0
12-22Central Michigan (70.0)MACH58-87L0%0.0
12-30Mississippi St. (216.0)SECA47-66W100%0.0
1-3Stephen F. Austin (33.0)SlndH75-80L0%0.0
1-5Houston Baptist (285.0)SlndH56-68L0%0.0
1-10Texas A&M Corpus Chris (209.0)SlndA71-61L0%0.0
1-17Sam Houston St. (82.0)SlndA69-60L0%0.0
1-20Abilene Christian (324.0)SlndH63-56W100%0.0
1-24Northwestern St. (161.0)SlndA93-67L0%0.0
1-26Incarnate Word (160.0)SlndA86-84L0%0.0
1-31New Orleans (326.0)SlndH68-61W100%0.0
2-2Southeastern Louisiana (329.0)SlndA60-73W100%0.0
2-7Nicholls St. (321.0)SlndA70-59L0%0.0
2-9New Orleans (326.0)SlndA81-71L0%0.0
2-14Northwestern St. (161.0)SlndH72-75L0%0.0
2-16Southeastern Louisiana (329.0)SlndH74-69W100%0.0
2-21Lamar (230.0)SlndA58-53L0%0.0
2-24Central Arkansas (349.0)SlndA60-77W100%0.0
2-28Nicholls St. (321.0)SlndH83-78W100%0.0
3-2Lamar (230.0)SlndH70-69W100%0.0
3-8Central Arkansas (349.0)SlndH70-68W100%0.0
3-11Southeastern Louisiana (329.0)SlndN62-60W100%0.0
3-12Northwestern St. (161.0)SlndN96-89L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

McNeese St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


McNeese St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  McNeese St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
McNeese St.Slnd26.5426.5440.1740.17-5.22-5.22
Northwestern St.Slnd6.526.5250.0050.000.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd6.486.4828.5728.57-2.78-2.78
New OrleansSlnd4.794.7929.1729.17-2.00-2.00
Nicholls St.Slnd4.744.7425.0025.00-2.37-2.37
Central ArkansasSlnd4.684.687.417.41-3.99-3.99
LamarSlnd4.484.4841.6741.67-0.75-0.75
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.972.9786.2186.212.152.15
Sam Houston St.Slnd2.852.8571.4371.431.221.22
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.842.8455.1755.170.290.29
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.792.7925.9325.93-1.35-1.35
Incarnate WordSlnd2.762.7656.5256.520.360.36
Houston BaptistSlnd2.722.7230.4330.43-1.07-1.07
TCUB122.012.0153.1253.120.130.13
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.951.9558.6258.620.340.34
ToledoMAC1.951.9559.3859.380.370.37
BaylorB121.941.9470.9770.970.810.81
Central MichiganMAC1.941.9470.3770.370.790.79
LSUSEC1.911.9167.7467.740.680.68
Mississippi St.SEC1.911.9140.0040.00-0.38-0.38
Texas A&MSEC0.320.3264.5264.520.090.09
OklahomaB120.310.3168.7568.750.110.11
Arkansas St.SB0.250.2535.7135.71-0.07-0.07
Texas TechB120.250.2540.6240.62-0.05-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.200.2075.0075.000.100.10
Oklahoma St.B120.200.2056.6756.670.030.03
TroySB0.200.2029.6329.63-0.08-0.08
Texas St.SB0.190.1939.2939.29-0.04-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.190.1976.4776.470.100.10
Iowa St.B120.190.1975.7675.760.100.10
Tennessee TechOVC0.180.1835.7135.71-0.05-0.05
AuburnSEC0.180.1841.1841.18-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.170.1771.8871.880.080.08
KansasB120.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
Louisiana MonroeSB0.160.1658.6258.620.030.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
MississippiSEC0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
IndianaB100.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
Kansas St.B120.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
BuffaloMAC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
TexasB120.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
RiceCUSA0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
TulsaAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
NebraskaB100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1064.7164.710.030.03
OhioMAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
BradleyMVC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
GonzagaWCC0.090.0993.9493.940.080.08
South FloridaAmer0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
UCFAmer0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0923.0823.08-0.05-0.05
WinthropBSth0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
AkronMAC0.090.0958.8258.820.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0918.7518.75-0.06-0.06
MissouriSEC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
HoustonAmer0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
CreightonBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
KentuckySEC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
PrincetonIvy0.040.0451.7251.720.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.020.02
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
MaineAE0.030.0310.0010.00-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0374.1974.190.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
WoffordSC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0327.2727.27-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
FurmanSC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00