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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


McNeese St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:341.0
Current RPI:341
Expected SOS:344
Current SOS:344
Current Record:7-19
Expected Record:7-19
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-11
Current OOC Record:0-7
Expected OOC Record:0-7
Expected OOC RPI:299
Expected OOC SOS:36



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-19341.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for McNeese St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13LSU (94.0)SECA81-70L0%0.0
11-20Oklahoma (6.0)B12A85-56L0%0.0
11-28Texas St. (238.0)SBH67-70L0%0.0
11-30Central Michigan (156.0)MACA74-73L0%0.0
12-9Louisiana Lafayette (157.0)SBA97-64L0%0.0
12-12Indiana (24.0)B10A105-60L0%0.0
12-22UCLA (102.0)P12A67-53L0%0.0
1-2Stephen F. Austin (61.0)SlndA86-57L0%0.0
1-5Houston Baptist (224.0)SlndA82-73L0%0.0
1-9Texas A&M Corpus Chris (84.0)SlndH68-77L0%0.0
1-16Sam Houston St. (178.0)SlndH72-68W100%0.0
1-19Abilene Christian (321.0)SlndA75-67L0%0.0
1-23Northwestern St. (344.0)SlndH75-74W100%0.0
1-25Incarnate Word (163.0)SlndH79-76W100%0.0
1-30New Orleans (343.0)SlndA76-64L0%0.0
2-1Southeastern Louisiana (331.0)SlndA82-80L0%0.0
2-6Nicholls St. (313.0)SlndA71-56L0%0.0
2-11New Orleans (343.0)SlndH87-76W100%0.0
2-13Northwestern St. (344.0)SlndA87-78L0%0.0
2-15Southeastern Louisiana (331.0)SlndH76-79L0%0.0
2-20Lamar (337.0)SlndH76-87L0%0.0
2-22Central Arkansas (339.0)SlndH82-88L0%0.0
2-27Nicholls St. (313.0)SlndH71-69W100%0.0
2-29Lamar (337.0)SlndA74-77W100%0.0
3-5Central Arkansas (339.0)SlndA77-85W100%0.0
3-9Nicholls St. (313.0)SlndN90-94L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

McNeese St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


McNeese St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  McNeese St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
McNeese St.Slnd26.4226.4226.8526.85-12.23-12.23
Nicholls St.Slnd6.696.6921.4321.43-3.82-3.82
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd4.894.8927.5927.59-2.19-2.19
New OrleansSlnd4.864.8624.0024.00-2.53-2.53
Central ArkansasSlnd4.804.8023.0823.08-2.59-2.59
Northwestern St.Slnd4.754.7518.1818.18-3.02-3.02
LamarSlnd4.604.6025.0025.00-2.30-2.30
Sam Houston St.Slnd2.952.9553.5753.570.210.21
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.902.9081.4881.481.831.83
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.892.8975.8675.861.501.50
Houston BaptistSlnd2.892.8942.8642.86-0.41-0.41
Incarnate WordSlnd2.872.8758.3358.330.480.48
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.822.8230.7730.77-1.08-1.08
Louisiana LafayetteSB2.092.0950.0050.000.000.00
OklahomaB122.062.0677.4277.421.131.13
Texas St.SB2.022.0242.8642.86-0.29-0.29
UCLAP121.961.9645.1645.16-0.19-0.19
LSUSEC1.951.9556.2556.250.240.24
Central MichiganMAC1.921.9246.4346.43-0.14-0.14
IndianaB101.921.9277.4277.421.051.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.300.3087.1087.100.220.22
Louisiana MonroeSB0.210.2158.0658.060.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.200.2031.0331.03-0.08-0.08
South AlabamaSB0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
TCUB120.190.1936.3636.36-0.05-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.180.1876.4776.470.100.10
BaylorB120.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.170.1743.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.170.1729.0329.03-0.07-0.07
Georgia St.SB0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
NebraskaB100.160.1647.0647.06-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
RiceCUSA0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
UC RiversideBW0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
MassachusettsA100.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
UTSACUSA0.130.1313.3313.33-0.10-0.10
Georgia SouthernSB0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Arizona St.P120.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
SMUAmer0.130.1383.3383.330.080.08
Washington St.P120.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
ColoradoP120.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
HawaiiBW0.120.1283.3383.330.080.08
MemphisAmer0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
WisconsinB100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
HoustonAmer0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
AuburnSEC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.110.1118.5218.52-0.07-0.07
TulaneAmer0.110.1135.2935.29-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
NorthwesternB100.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
RutgersB100.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1022.2222.22-0.05-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
Texas TechB120.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
TexasB120.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
KansasB120.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
USCP120.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
West VirginiaB120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
BradleyMVC0.070.0712.9012.90-0.05-0.05
DuquesneA100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
TulsaAmer0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
PurdueB100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
St. John'sBE0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
AkronMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
CreightonBE0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
IllinoisB100.060.0644.1244.12-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Kansas St.B120.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
MinnesotaB100.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Oregon St.P120.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
WashingtonP120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.060.0644.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
DrakeMVC0.040.0420.0020.00-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.040.0458.6258.620.010.01
OaklandHorz0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
PortlandWCC0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.010.01
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0374.1974.190.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
ElonCAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
VillanovaBE0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
AmericanPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01