McNeese St.

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	205.8
Current RPI:	207
Expected SOS:	229
Current SOS:	256
Current Record:	8-10
Expected Record:	12-14
Current Conf Record:	7-2
Expected Conf Record:	10-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	1.67%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-3
Current OOC Record:	1-8
Expected OOC Record:	2-8
Expected OOC RPI:	245
Expected OOC SOS:	77

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-10	131.5	0.04%
15-11	141.8	0.87%
14-12	162.1	5.85%
13-13	182.7	20.24%
12-14	201.5	31.28%
11-15	219.7	26.53%
10-16	237.9	12.32%
9-17	256.3	2.70%
8-18	271.9	0.16%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for McNeese St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Auburn (149.8)	SEC	A	84-62	L	0%	0.0
11-18	Georgia St. (123.3)	CAA	A	69-50	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Sacramento St. (304.4)	BSky	A	63-68	W	100%	0.0
11-28	California (42.1)	P12	A	73-57	L	0%	0.0
12-1	Louisiana Lafayette (158.8)	SB	A	78-56	L	0%	0.0
12-14	Louisiana Tech (202.9)	WAC	A	60-58	L	0%	0.0
12-19	Texas El Paso (178.9)	CUSA	A	69-54	L	0%	0.0
12-21	New Mexico St. (72.2)	WAC	A	82-62	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Southern Mississippi (15.4)	CUSA	H	56-65	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (316.2)	Slnd	A	69-71	W	100%	0.0
1-11	Lamar (101.7)	Slnd	H	57-54	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Texas St. (317.2)	Slnd	A	82-73	L	0%	0.0
1-18	Southeastern Louisiana (325.8)	Slnd	H	61-47	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Northwestern St. (177.9)	Slnd	H	61-64	L	0%	0.0
1-25	Nicholls St. (313.6)	Slnd	A	56-60	W	100%	0.0
1-29	Central Arkansas (298.6)	Slnd	H	87-76	W	100%	0.0
2-1	Sam Houston St. (285.7)	Slnd	A	61-67	W	100%	0.0
2-5	Stephen F. Austin (256.1)	Slnd	H	66-56	W	100%	0.0
2-11	Central Arkansas (298.6)	Slnd	A	0-0		61%	3.1
2-13	Northwestern St. (177.9)	Slnd	A	0-0		31%	-5.3
2-15	Texas San Antonio (170.6)	Slnd	H	0-0		34%	-4.4
2-18	Southeast Missouri St. (241.0)	OVC	H	0-0		60%	2.8
2-22	Texas Arlington (100.9)	Slnd	H	0-0		23%	-8.0
2-25	Nicholls St. (313.6)	Slnd	H	0-0		90%	14.2
2-29	Southeastern Louisiana (325.8)	Slnd	A	0-0		64%	4.0
3-3	Lamar (101.7)	Slnd	A	0-0		11%	-13.6

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

McNeese St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

McNeese St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against McNeese St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
McNeese St.	Slnd	26.20	26.25	51.28	49.80	0.67	-0.11
Central Arkansas	Slnd	3.34	4.72	29.41	30.63	-1.38	-1.83
Nicholls St.	Slnd	3.39	4.69	26.32	25.24	-1.61	-2.32
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	3.34	4.68	29.41	30.48	-1.37	-1.83
Lamar	Slnd	3.27	4.66	65.00	68.97	0.98	1.77
Northwestern St.	Slnd	3.35	4.66	52.63	52.14	0.18	0.20
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.63	2.69	57.14	60.55	0.09	0.57
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.64	2.66	76.19	75.96	0.34	1.38
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	3.28	2.65	47.06	50.09	-0.19	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	3.29	2.63	18.18	21.47	-2.09	-1.50
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	3.14	2.62	27.78	31.00	-1.40	-1.00
Texas St.	Slnd	3.20	2.62	17.65	24.67	-2.07	-1.33
Louisiana Tech	WAC	3.11	2.27	40.00	41.50	-0.62	-0.39
Texas El Paso	CUSA	3.03	2.12	40.91	41.31	-0.55	-0.37
New Mexico St.	WAC	3.16	2.12	68.18	67.93	1.15	0.76
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.22	2.11	47.62	47.47	-0.01	-0.11
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	2.91	2.06	52.17	53.14	0.13	0.13
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	2.96	2.05	85.00	81.59	2.08	1.30
Sacramento St.	BSky	2.85	2.03	31.58	34.54	-1.05	-0.63
Auburn	SEC	2.91	2.03	52.17	46.16	0.13	-0.16
Georgia St.	CAA	2.78	1.96	65.22	68.66	0.85	0.73
California	P12	2.78	1.92	73.91	73.78	1.33	0.91
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.41	0.38	8.70	8.99	-0.34	-0.32
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.14	0.29	4.35	9.74	-0.13	-0.23
Arkansas St.	SB	0.20	0.24	37.50	38.36	-0.05	-0.06
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.26	0.24	43.48	44.26	-0.03	-0.03
Houston	CUSA	0.34	0.24	47.62	44.58	-0.02	-0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.18	0.23	27.27	26.96	-0.08	-0.11
Tulsa	CUSA	0.14	0.20	60.87	59.05	0.03	0.04
Rice	CUSA	0.19	0.20	47.62	46.51	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.19	0.20	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.01
Texas	B12	0.22	0.18	62.50	62.20	0.05	0.04
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.20	0.17	25.00	28.48	-0.10	-0.08
Arkansas	SEC	0.20	0.17	69.57	65.18	0.08	0.05
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.14	0.17	19.05	24.60	-0.09	-0.09
Tulane	CUSA	0.20	0.17	61.90	58.61	0.05	0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.20	0.17	59.09	59.78	0.04	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.20	0.17	69.57	64.49	0.08	0.05
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.13	0.17	38.10	37.80	-0.03	-0.04
Fresno St.	WAC	0.13	0.16	39.13	44.46	-0.03	-0.02
Denver	SB	0.24	0.16	70.83	72.24	0.10	0.07
Hawaii	WAC	0.18	0.16	57.14	53.02	0.03	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.08	0.15	33.33	34.54	-0.03	-0.04
Texas Tech	B12	0.21	0.14	30.43	25.84	-0.08	-0.07
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.27	0.14	13.64	16.23	-0.20	-0.10
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.07	0.14	34.78	38.43	-0.02	-0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.20	0.14	80.00	76.71	0.12	0.07
Southern	SWAC	0.20	0.14	47.62	48.48	-0.01	-0.00
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.20	0.14	82.61	81.43	0.13	0.09
Stanford	P12	0.14	0.14	69.57	68.33	0.05	0.05
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.13	0.14	59.09	57.27	0.02	0.02
Missouri	B12	0.13	0.14	91.67	87.92	0.11	0.10
North Texas	SB	0.13	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.13	0.13	33.33	35.20	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.13	0.13	78.26	72.28	0.07	0.06
Central Florida	CUSA	0.12	0.13	71.43	66.55	0.05	0.04
Idaho	WAC	0.13	0.13	50.00	51.46	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.18	0.13	63.64	56.68	0.05	0.02
Nevada	WAC	0.13	0.13	80.95	76.42	0.08	0.07
Portland St.	BSky	0.07	0.11	42.86	45.93	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.14	0.11	34.78	34.46	-0.04	-0.03
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.11	52.17	50.01	0.00	0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.20	0.11	30.00	31.40	-0.08	-0.04
South Carolina	SEC	0.14	0.11	40.91	39.60	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.15	0.11	28.57	35.72	-0.06	-0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.14	0.11	56.52	53.94	0.02	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.21	0.10	50.00	45.20	0.00	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.13	0.10	65.00	66.71	0.04	0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.07	0.10	100.00	94.58	0.07	0.09
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.10	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.03
Florida International	SB	0.19	0.10	33.33	37.11	-0.06	-0.03
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.07	0.10	60.87	59.85	0.01	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.19	0.10	47.83	47.88	-0.01	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.13	0.10	66.67	60.84	0.04	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.19	0.10	44.44	41.65	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.06	0.10	76.00	72.48	0.03	0.04
Kentucky	SEC	0.12	0.10	96.00	93.53	0.11	0.09
Memphis	CUSA	0.13	0.10	69.57	71.58	0.05	0.04
South Alabama	SB	0.18	0.10	52.38	52.88	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.13	0.10	40.91	39.81	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.12	0.10	47.83	48.56	-0.01	-0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.18	0.10	20.83	25.85	-0.10	-0.05
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.14	0.07	40.91	44.29	-0.03	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	31.82	32.98	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.07	54.17	49.41	0.01	-0.00
Montana	BSky	0.07	0.07	71.43	73.99	0.03	0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	45.00	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.08	0.07	38.10	40.84	-0.02	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.00	0.07	34.78	35.53	-0.00	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.07	0.07	86.96	83.30	0.05	0.05
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.00	0.07	26.32	29.64	-0.00	-0.03
North Dakota	GWC	0.07	0.07	33.33	41.30	-0.02	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.00	0.07	57.69	58.27	0.00	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.07	0.07	69.57	65.37	0.03	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.13	0.07	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.07	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.07	0.07	79.17	74.20	0.04	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.07	0.07	81.82	77.18	0.04	0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	87.50	85.41	0.05	0.05
Texas Christian	MWC	0.07	0.07	57.14	49.57	0.01	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.06	0.07	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.12	0.07	36.36	39.73	-0.03	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.07	47.83	42.67	-0.00	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.12	0.07	56.52	53.76	0.02	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.12	0.07	54.55	48.54	0.01	-0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.07	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.12	0.06	30.43	31.40	-0.05	-0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.12	0.06	35.00	35.26	-0.04	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.06	0.06	69.57	70.16	0.02	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.12	0.06	36.36	40.96	-0.03	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	28.57	34.11	-0.03	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.06	47.83	50.66	-0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.12	0.06	79.17	78.05	0.07	0.04
Georgia Southern	SC	0.12	0.06	42.86	43.11	-0.02	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.17	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.12	0.06	8.33	10.90	-0.10	-0.05
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.12	0.06	39.13	36.12	-0.03	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.12	0.06	81.82	81.02	0.08	0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.12	0.06	80.00	78.08	0.07	0.04
William & Mary	CAA	0.06	0.06	12.50	13.42	-0.04	-0.05
Arizona	P12	0.12	0.06	66.67	68.55	0.04	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.12	0.06	45.45	41.17	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.12	0.06	69.57	66.59	0.05	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	66.67	62.69	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.17	0.02	0.02
Southern California	P12	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.08	-0.03	-0.03
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.06	54.55	56.78	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.06	0.06	18.18	15.00	-0.04	-0.04
Cal Poly	BW	0.07	0.04	50.00	56.75	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.08	0.04	40.91	34.45	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.00	0.04	31.82	32.81	-0.00	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.08	0.04	70.83	71.06	0.03	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.04	42.11	45.89	-0.01	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.04	35.00	40.74	-0.02	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.08	0.04	33.33	33.82	-0.03	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.08	0.04	56.52	56.80	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.00	0.04	26.32	28.82	-0.00	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.07	0.04	0.00	5.31	-0.07	-0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.00	0.04	24.00	24.86	-0.00	-0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.07	0.04	82.61	81.41	0.05	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.00	0.04	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.07	0.04	72.00	72.22	0.03	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.00	0.04	30.00	34.18	-0.00	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.00	0.04	34.78	35.19	-0.00	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.00	0.04	45.45	47.09	-0.00	-0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.07	0.04	36.00	40.36	-0.02	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.07	0.04	65.22	62.67	0.02	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.04	73.91	75.47	0.03	0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.00	0.04	56.52	53.06	0.00	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.07	0.03	21.05	24.33	-0.04	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.00	0.03	90.91	83.90	0.00	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.00	0.03	47.62	48.81	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.03	59.09	56.38	0.01	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.07	0.03	19.05	19.39	-0.04	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.06	0.03	83.33	84.76	0.04	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.03	61.90	63.52	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.00	0.03	80.77	80.77	0.00	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.00	0.03	31.82	33.75	-0.00	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.03	68.00	70.06	0.02	0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.00	0.03	20.83	23.73	-0.00	-0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.07	0.03	76.19	70.71	0.03	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.03	47.83	45.51	-0.00	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.00	0.03	79.17	76.62	0.00	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.03	22.73	24.64	-0.03	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.03	72.73	71.57	0.03	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.03	73.91	68.41	0.03	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.03	27.27	27.33	-0.03	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.03	71.43	73.45	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.03	54.17	57.11	0.01	0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.03	48.00	48.07	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.00	0.03	60.00	58.30	0.00	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.03	21.74	21.75	-0.03	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.06	0.03	20.83	20.61	-0.03	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	54.55	58.39	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.03	65.22	63.65	0.02	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	14.29	16.80	-0.04	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.03	45.45	44.56	-0.01	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.03	4.00	5.27	-0.05	-0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.03	54.55	57.71	0.01	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.03	69.57	65.88	0.02	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.06	0.03	66.67	65.98	0.02	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.03	34.78	32.05	-0.02	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.03	18.18	23.34	-0.04	-0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.03	85.71	78.11	0.04	0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.06	0.03	55.56	58.02	0.01	0.00