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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


McNeese St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:297.1
Current RPI:297
Expected SOS:310
Current SOS:324
Current Record:4-10
Expected Record:8-17
Current Conf Record:4-3
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-10
Current OOC Record:0-7
Expected OOC Record:0-7
Expected OOC RPI:333
Expected OOC SOS:138



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-11189.00.01%
13-12202.00.08%
12-13222.30.76%
11-14241.43.18%
10-15260.19.92%
9-16278.918.35%
8-17297.025.59%
7-18312.923.56%
6-19325.313.40%
5-20334.84.44%
4-21341.80.70%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for McNeese St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Houston (42.5)AmerA81-53L0%0.0
11-17San Diego St. (85.9)MWCA83-52L0%0.0
11-19Loyola Marymount (262.7)WCCA92-86L0%0.0
11-28Louisiana Lafayette (62.2)SBA89-78L0%0.0
12-9North Texas (217.4)CUSAA85-47L0%0.0
12-14North Carolina Central (268.4)MEACA77-71L0%0.0
12-16Pittsburgh (187.4)ACCA72-51L0%0.0
12-28Incarnate Word (338.0)SlndH85-62W100%0.0
12-30Northwestern St. (338.0)SlndH72-63W100%0.0
1-3Abilene Christian (227.7)SlndA79-74L0%0.0
1-6New Orleans (218.0)SlndH75-82L0%0.0
1-10Nicholls St. (200.2)SlndA85-80L0%0.0
1-13Southeastern Louisiana (205.0)SlndA62-71W100%0.0
1-20Houston Baptist (334.4)SlndA81-86W100%0.0
1-27Lamar (226.9)SlndA0-017%-10.8
1-30Sam Houston St. (221.0)SlndH0-035%-4.2
2-3Northwestern St. (338.0)SlndA0-055%1.4
2-8Stephen F. Austin (123.5)SlndH0-020%-9.6
2-10Southeastern Louisiana (205.0)SlndH0-040%-2.7
2-14Central Arkansas (237.0)SlndA0-019%-9.8
2-17New Orleans (218.0)SlndA0-023%-8.3
2-21Nicholls St. (200.2)SlndH0-040%-2.7
2-24Houston Baptist (334.4)SlndH0-061%3.2
2-28Texas A&M Corpus Chris (335.5)SlndA0-037%-3.8
3-3Lamar (226.9)SlndH0-035%-4.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

McNeese St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


McNeese St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  McNeese St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
McNeese St.Slnd26.5026.3637.0434.75-6.87-8.04
New OrleansSlnd4.114.9733.3341.63-1.37-0.83
Nicholls St.Slnd4.044.9746.6749.10-0.27-0.09
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd4.014.9456.2556.980.500.69
Northwestern St.Slnd3.894.897.6914.15-3.29-3.50
Houston BaptistSlnd4.004.876.2519.35-3.50-2.99
LamarSlnd0.464.8350.0053.340.000.32
Incarnate WordSlnd3.993.048.3320.96-3.32-1.76
Central ArkansasSlnd0.572.9845.0048.19-0.06-0.11
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.352.977.6921.61-0.30-1.69
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.702.9480.0078.780.421.69
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.472.9343.7548.53-0.06-0.09
Abilene ChristianSlnd4.022.9050.0050.820.000.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB3.902.2282.3580.712.521.36
HoustonAmer3.822.1277.7872.062.120.93
Loyola MarymountWCC3.712.0423.5326.47-1.96-0.96
North Carolina CentralMEAC3.572.0040.0052.34-0.710.09
North TexasCUSA3.572.0041.1844.74-0.63-0.21
PittsburghACC3.572.0036.8428.57-0.94-0.86
San Diego St.MWC3.572.0056.2561.450.450.46
Louisiana MonroeSB0.330.2626.6729.04-0.15-0.11
SMUAmer0.240.2270.0070.570.100.09
Texas St.SB0.310.2257.8950.210.050.00
TulaneAmer0.310.2163.1657.890.080.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.210.1945.0045.03-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.230.1911.1117.68-0.18-0.12
UTEPCUSA0.240.1833.3334.10-0.08-0.06
Coastal CarolinaSB0.100.1827.7838.14-0.04-0.04
UTSACUSA0.200.1841.1839.65-0.04-0.04
Little RockSB0.100.1722.2225.25-0.06-0.09
Colorado St.MWC0.230.1545.0041.33-0.02-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.340.1580.9583.260.210.10
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.1555.5656.740.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.110.1550.0045.870.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.300.1463.1657.540.080.02
TulsaAmer0.090.1455.0053.320.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.300.1460.0062.030.060.03
OklahomaB120.230.1177.7867.910.130.04
MississippiSEC0.100.1152.6345.860.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.110.1161.1164.130.020.03
IdahoBSky0.110.1164.7166.850.030.04
BaylorB120.000.1161.1156.090.000.01
MemphisAmer0.110.1165.0058.540.030.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1168.4270.810.040.05
Air ForceMWC0.110.1137.5031.76-0.03-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.1133.3332.94-0.03-0.04
LSUSEC0.090.1161.1153.170.020.01
Boise St.MWC0.200.1178.9576.990.120.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.200.110.009.09-0.20-0.09
DuquesneA100.090.1170.0058.090.040.02
Arkansas St.SB0.200.1127.7831.11-0.09-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.200.1152.6355.290.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.200.1136.8444.11-0.05-0.01
WyomingMWC0.200.1161.1156.830.050.01
ProvidenceBE0.200.1070.0060.470.080.02
San FranciscoWCC0.100.1050.0048.730.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.110.1068.4260.860.040.02
Notre DameACC0.110.1063.1661.020.030.02
Oklahoma St.B120.190.1068.4254.090.070.01
Virginia TechACC0.190.1068.4257.740.070.02
TexasB120.130.0863.1657.630.030.01
UtahP120.130.0863.1659.710.030.02
OaklandHorz0.110.0861.9065.160.030.02
St. John'sBE0.110.0847.3742.16-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.110.0866.6755.940.040.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0729.4133.200.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0710.0019.630.00-0.04
HowardMEAC0.110.0710.5327.29-0.09-0.03
LipscombASun0.210.0752.9459.340.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0715.7920.910.00-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.110.0727.7827.10-0.05-0.03
SeattleWAC0.110.0757.8954.500.020.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.220.0742.1143.51-0.04-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0755.0052.470.000.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0758.8262.440.000.02
UMBCAE0.110.0755.5655.540.010.01
VillanovaBE0.110.0794.7490.310.100.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.0750.0052.460.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.110.0768.4263.650.040.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.0727.7834.50-0.04-0.02
BelmontOVC0.110.0771.4374.660.050.04
BYUWCC0.100.0780.9576.240.060.04
DetroitHorz0.110.0721.0525.97-0.06-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.110.0766.6763.420.040.02
Kent St.MAC0.110.0744.4444.92-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.110.0785.0083.200.070.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.070.0010.67-0.11-0.06
NevadaMWC0.000.0785.7182.090.000.05
PacificWCC0.100.0745.0044.47-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0710.5318.340.00-0.05
PortlandWCC0.100.0727.7827.28-0.04-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.0790.4888.960.080.06
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.110.0742.1146.09-0.02-0.01
SamfordSC0.110.0727.7832.66-0.05-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.110.0711.7612.81-0.08-0.05
UNLVMWC0.000.0773.6865.260.000.02
ValparaisoMVC0.110.0747.3748.77-0.01-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.110.0736.8435.57-0.03-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0727.7831.710.00-0.03
CaliforniaP120.110.0736.8431.12-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.000.0735.2935.540.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0737.5037.680.00-0.02
TroySB0.000.0735.2942.760.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.100.0784.2173.240.070.03
Georgia TechACC0.190.0752.6343.110.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0789.4785.550.000.05
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0742.1132.47-0.01-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0723.5328.690.00-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.090.0735.0026.12-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.090.0752.6351.740.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.190.0778.9577.380.110.04
Wake ForestACC0.090.0742.1140.46-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.180.0689.4785.210.140.05
LouisvilleACC0.090.0678.9569.790.050.03
Miami FLACC0.090.0677.7870.480.050.03
SyracuseACC0.090.0668.4261.230.030.01
FloridaSEC0.140.0473.6871.560.070.02
UMKCWAC0.140.0421.0524.75-0.08-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.0458.8249.760.02-0.00
CampbellBSth0.110.0447.0647.41-0.01-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0462.5058.690.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0466.6765.640.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.049.5217.90-0.09-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.110.0452.6347.520.01-0.00
George MasonA100.110.0445.0041.30-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.0470.0071.230.040.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0420.0041.730.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.110.0447.3744.27-0.01-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.0442.1146.00-0.02-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0416.6716.160.00-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0472.2258.920.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0466.6763.200.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.0429.4139.63-0.05-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.0418.7536.82-0.07-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0444.4450.310.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.110.0427.7840.97-0.05-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.0426.3231.50-0.05-0.01
Texas TechB120.110.0478.9571.810.060.02
USC UpstateASun0.110.0411.1118.00-0.08-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0466.6766.020.000.01
Arizona St.P120.110.0478.9576.130.060.02
BradleyMVC0.110.0465.0057.880.030.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.0456.2556.830.010.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.0417.6519.30-0.06-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.0429.4133.93-0.04-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.110.0445.0048.56-0.01-0.00
Oregon St.P120.100.0457.8950.840.020.00
Portland St.BSky0.100.0458.8263.210.020.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.110.0416.6724.45-0.07-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.100.0417.6523.86-0.06-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.110.0445.0045.49-0.01-0.00
WashingtonP120.100.0470.0061.440.040.01
Washington St.P120.110.0447.3741.44-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.100.0333.3337.23-0.03-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.100.0323.5325.64-0.05-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.100.0368.4254.070.040.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0366.6765.370.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0366.6765.520.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.100.0344.4446.02-0.01-0.00
IowaB100.100.0347.6244.02-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0372.2274.710.000.02
NebraskaB100.100.0366.6759.820.030.01
Old DominionCUSA0.100.0378.9576.750.060.02
RichmondA100.100.0331.5834.36-0.04-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.100.0341.1838.47-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0312.5025.450.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.090.0368.4264.200.030.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0352.6347.390.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.090.0330.0030.99-0.04-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0338.8944.08-0.02-0.00
LibertyBSth0.090.0350.0054.190.000.00
OregonP120.000.0365.0063.850.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0321.0539.48-0.05-0.01
Saint LouisA100.090.0347.3746.92-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.0365.0062.050.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0365.0054.670.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0373.6869.640.000.01
High PointBSth0.090.0343.7549.23-0.01-0.00
LehighPat0.090.0338.8944.75-0.02-0.00
MontanaBSky0.090.0370.5973.150.040.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0342.1144.96-0.01-0.00
NavyPat0.090.0360.0055.160.020.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0380.0075.060.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0365.0056.340.000.00
Penn St.B100.090.0361.9055.760.020.00
TowsonCAA0.090.0363.1665.970.020.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0370.5969.630.040.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0394.7486.140.000.02
West VirginiaB120.090.0384.2178.170.060.02