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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


McNeese St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:272.0
Current RPI:272
Expected SOS:204
Current SOS:204
Current Record:7-20
Expected Record:7-20
Current Conf Record:7-10
Expected Conf Record:7-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-7
Current OOC Record:0-10
Expected OOC Record:0-10
Expected OOC RPI:251
Expected OOC SOS:7



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-20272.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for McNeese St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Michigan St. (18.0)B10A98-56L0%0.0
11-12Louisiana Lafayette (90.0)SBA92-66L0%0.0
11-18Georgia St. (76.0)SBN96-70L0%0.0
11-25East Carolina (216.0)CUSAN91-62L0%0.0
11-26Rhode Island (155.0)A10A76-71L0%0.0
12-2SMU (53.0)AmerA88-59L0%0.0
12-14Texas A&M (148.0)SECA73-60L0%0.0
12-17Louisiana Tech (62.0)CUSAA64-50L0%0.0
12-21San Diego St. (15.0)MWCA65-36L0%0.0
12-28LSU (83.0)SECA79-52L0%0.0
1-2Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndH69-60W100%0.0
1-4New Orleans (260.0)SlndH82-69W100%0.0
1-9Sam Houston St. (112.0)SlndA86-81L0%0.0
1-11Lamar (344.0)SlndA59-74W100%0.0
1-16Texas A&M Corpus Chris (249.0)SlndH61-77L0%0.0
1-18Houston Baptist (341.0)SlndH70-68W100%0.0
1-21Nicholls St. (262.0)SlndH79-87L0%0.0
1-30Central Arkansas (328.0)SlndH75-76L0%0.0
2-1Oral Roberts (191.0)SlndH79-68W100%0.0
2-6Northwestern St. (158.0)SlndA85-74L0%0.0
2-8Stephen F. Austin (52.0)SlndA74-54L0%0.0
2-13Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndA62-53L0%0.0
2-16New Orleans (260.0)SlndA69-72W100%0.0
2-22Nicholls St. (262.0)SlndA68-59L0%0.0
3-6Texas A&M Corpus Chris (249.0)SlndA67-51L0%0.0
3-8Houston Baptist (341.0)SlndA77-79W100%0.0
3-12Oral Roberts (191.0)SlndN66-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

McNeese St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


McNeese St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  McNeese St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
McNeese St.Slnd26.3126.3129.7329.73-10.67-10.67
Nicholls St.Slnd4.624.6241.6741.67-0.77-0.77
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd4.554.5529.1729.17-1.89-1.89
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd4.504.5050.0050.000.000.00
Oral RobertsSlnd4.504.5044.4444.44-0.50-0.50
New OrleansSlnd4.484.4840.0040.00-0.90-0.90
Houston BaptistSlnd4.474.4716.0016.00-3.04-3.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd2.892.8967.8667.861.031.03
Northwestern St.Slnd2.802.8046.1546.15-0.22-0.22
Central ArkansasSlnd2.702.7020.8320.83-1.58-1.58
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.682.6892.8692.862.302.30
LamarSlnd2.672.6711.1111.11-2.07-2.07
LSUSEC2.132.1358.0658.060.340.34
Louisiana LafayetteSB2.002.0063.3363.330.530.53
Louisiana TechCUSA1.981.9878.1278.121.121.12
Georgia St.SB1.971.9773.3373.330.920.92
Texas A&MSEC1.971.9751.6151.610.060.06
SMUAmer1.941.9470.9770.970.810.81
Michigan St.B101.941.9475.7675.761.001.00
East CarolinaCUSA1.911.9142.8642.86-0.27-0.27
Rhode IslandA101.911.9140.0040.00-0.38-0.38
San Diego St.MWC1.851.8586.6786.671.361.36
RiceCUSA0.320.3217.8617.86-0.21-0.21
North TexasCUSA0.300.3044.8344.83-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.260.2622.2222.22-0.14-0.14
Texas St.SB0.240.2420.6920.69-0.14-0.14
TroySB0.230.2331.0331.03-0.09-0.09
Arkansas St.SB0.220.2256.6756.670.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.220.2243.3343.33-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.220.2265.6265.620.070.07
Southern MissCUSA0.220.2280.6580.650.130.13
HoustonAmer0.210.2151.5251.520.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.210.2134.6234.62-0.06-0.06
UTEPCUSA0.210.2167.7467.740.070.07
MemphisAmer0.190.1970.9770.970.080.08
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.190.1925.8125.81-0.09-0.09
South AlabamaSB0.190.1928.5728.57-0.08-0.08
MinnesotaB100.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
AuburnSEC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.160.1642.4242.42-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
TulsaCUSA0.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
OklahomaB120.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
MichiganB100.150.1575.7675.760.080.08
Western KentuckySB0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
KentuckySEC0.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
Texas TechB120.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
TexasB120.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
IndianaB100.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
WisconsinB100.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
AlabamaSEC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.090.0980.6580.650.060.06
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
UNLVMWC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
UABCUSA0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
LouisvilleAmer0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0941.1841.18-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
HawaiiBW0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
NorthwesternB100.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
IPFWSum0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
ButlerBE0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
TulaneCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.060.0688.2488.240.050.05
DaytonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
FordhamA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
WyomingMWC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
FloridaSEC0.060.0694.1294.120.050.05
MississippiSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
RutgersAmer0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UICHorz0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.040.0448.1548.15-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0431.0331.03-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
BrownIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
KansasB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.033.573.57-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01