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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


McNeese St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:326.5
Current RPI:280
Expected SOS:238
Current SOS:88
Current Record:0-4
Expected Record:5-21
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-10
Current OOC Record:0-4
Expected OOC Record:0-8
Expected OOC RPI:311
Expected OOC SOS:63



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-15231.80.13%
10-16253.00.47%
9-17270.91.59%
8-18290.23.73%
7-19305.38.88%
6-20316.914.58%
5-21326.820.14%
4-22334.021.52%
3-23339.316.70%
2-24343.38.74%
1-25346.03.07%
-0-26347.80.44%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for McNeese St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Purdue (28.0)B10A109-65L0%0.0
11-22Memphis (147.9)AmerA104-65L0%0.0
11-29Texas St. (265.1)SBA80-68L0%0.0
12-3Louisiana Lafayette (101.3)SBH72-92L0%0.0
12-14SMU (59.0)AmerA0-01%-28.7
12-17North Carolina Central (173.0)MEACH0-018%-10.8
12-19Tulane (283.2)AmerA0-015%-12.2
12-22North Carolina St. (109.7)ACCA0-02%-24.2
12-31Northwestern St. (259.9)SlndA0-019%-10.6
1-2Stephen F. Austin (172.7)SlndH0-019%-10.4
1-5Sam Houston St. (166.4)SlndH0-021%-9.6
1-7Houston Baptist (219.0)SlndA0-015%-12.3
1-15Southeastern Louisiana (232.7)SlndA0-015%-12.3
1-18Central Arkansas (268.7)SlndH0-039%-3.2
1-21Northwestern St. (259.9)SlndH0-036%-4.3
1-26New Orleans (251.5)SlndA0-019%-10.6
1-28Nicholls St. (253.7)SlndA0-025%-8.0
2-2Incarnate Word (222.9)SlndA0-014%-12.9
2-4Lamar (300.5)SlndA0-026%-7.9
2-9New Orleans (251.5)SlndH0-036%-4.3
2-11Texas A&M Corpus Chris (163.3)SlndH0-019%-10.6
2-16Abilene Christian (190.8)SlndH0-024%-8.5
2-23Houston Baptist (219.0)SlndH0-031%-6.0
2-25Texas A&M Corpus Chris (163.3)SlndA0-08%-16.9
3-2Sam Houston St. (166.4)SlndA0-09%-15.8
3-4Lamar (300.5)SlndH0-045%-1.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

McNeese St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


McNeese St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  McNeese St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
McNeese St.Slnd28.5026.360.0017.49-28.50-17.14
LamarSlnd0.004.7750.0039.670.00-0.99
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.044.7375.0059.400.520.89
Houston BaptistSlnd0.004.720.0036.28-0.00-1.29
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.004.7050.0055.910.000.55
New OrleansSlnd0.004.6740.0039.38-0.00-0.99
Northwestern St.Slnd0.004.6420.0039.25-0.00-1.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.002.9142.8648.88-0.00-0.07
Incarnate WordSlnd0.002.9125.0041.64-0.00-0.49
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.002.9125.0054.27-0.000.25
Nicholls St.Slnd0.892.9042.8635.90-0.13-0.82
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.002.8740.0053.64-0.000.21
Central ArkansasSlnd0.002.8512.5029.38-0.00-1.17
TulaneAmer0.002.1912.5021.84-0.00-1.23
Louisiana LafayetteSB12.502.1066.6762.654.170.53
Texas St.SB12.502.1040.0041.29-2.50-0.37
MemphisAmer12.502.0971.4354.015.360.17
SMUAmer0.002.0566.6765.780.000.65
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.001.9257.1471.130.000.81
North Carolina St.ACC0.001.9275.0049.480.00-0.02
PurdueB1012.501.9271.4374.525.360.94
TulsaAmer0.000.3350.0038.050.00-0.08
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.780.2822.2221.23-0.43-0.16
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.2516.6729.81-0.00-0.10
RiceCUSA0.000.2375.0071.470.000.10
NorthwesternB100.000.2175.0066.170.000.07
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1977.7849.900.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.1985.7178.280.000.11
TempleAmer0.000.1975.0064.920.000.06
UTSACUSA1.040.1825.0029.54-0.52-0.07
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1871.4354.310.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.1871.4348.350.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.1757.1436.010.00-0.05
Little RockSB0.000.1666.6761.330.000.04
UCFAmer0.000.1685.7176.240.000.08
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1687.5082.360.000.10
South FloridaAmer0.000.1657.1433.230.00-0.05
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1633.3339.61-0.00-0.03
Texas TechB120.000.1587.5062.040.000.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1566.6766.180.000.05
MissouriSEC0.000.1457.1442.530.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.1487.5074.490.000.07
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1425.0038.83-0.00-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.1440.0058.82-0.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.890.1412.5037.99-0.67-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1362.5067.390.000.05
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1316.6729.80-0.00-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1375.0066.370.000.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1342.8643.60-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.780.1350.0060.620.000.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.1262.5058.450.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.1120.0035.47-0.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.1185.7166.190.000.04
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1185.7153.560.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1114.2931.28-0.00-0.04
USCP120.000.10100.0076.680.000.06
Utah St.MWC0.780.1042.8650.06-0.110.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.100.0034.47-0.00-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.1033.3330.44-0.00-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.000.1071.4357.970.000.02
TroySB0.000.1042.8636.19-0.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.780.1014.2943.58-0.56-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0962.5040.460.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0987.5081.960.000.06
IowaB100.780.0937.5037.74-0.20-0.02
MichiganB100.000.0975.0066.460.000.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0820.0037.65-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0875.0066.410.000.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0875.0048.030.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0857.1450.420.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0771.4355.820.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0742.8641.51-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.07100.0089.330.000.06
Washington St.P120.000.0742.8628.98-0.00-0.03
BaylorB120.000.07100.0076.590.000.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0714.2932.19-0.00-0.03
DePaulBE0.000.0766.6735.430.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0766.6740.030.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0716.6744.34-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0750.0052.760.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0712.5029.15-0.00-0.03
LibertyBSth0.000.0733.3348.07-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.070.0020.75-0.00-0.04
OhioMAC0.000.0783.3371.480.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0725.0022.93-0.00-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0757.1449.130.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0725.0027.53-0.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.000.0750.0059.920.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0022.58-0.00-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0757.1429.790.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0787.5065.250.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.070.0035.95-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0787.5068.610.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.780.070.0018.64-0.78-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0750.0071.020.000.03
MinnesotaB100.890.0687.5068.020.670.02
IllinoisB100.000.0662.5050.710.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.780.0687.5075.590.590.03
Miami FLACC0.000.0675.0066.100.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0655.5658.610.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.780.0616.6738.58-0.52-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0077.380.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.0666.6746.420.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0675.0049.180.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0675.0054.490.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0677.7876.040.000.03
KentuckySEC0.000.0487.5082.800.000.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.0420.0021.80-0.00-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0433.3346.38-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0457.1458.840.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.040.0022.01-0.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.0457.1438.680.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0462.5043.800.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.040.0017.13-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0414.2942.67-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0471.4349.170.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0471.4354.860.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0414.2938.26-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0475.0070.180.000.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0457.1453.990.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0462.5056.520.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0437.5031.23-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.040.0027.12-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0428.5723.12-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.040.0316.6730.34-0.69-0.01
HawaiiBW1.040.0350.0050.450.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.040.0350.0041.990.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0385.7162.220.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0371.4360.540.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0357.1452.030.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.890.0312.5030.68-0.67-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.890.0350.0062.380.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0342.8633.23-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.890.0350.0066.300.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0337.5047.91-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0325.0020.78-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0337.5037.03-0.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0342.8661.11-0.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.0342.8650.09-0.000.00
AuburnSEC0.780.0385.7157.450.560.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0342.8656.04-0.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0342.8654.90-0.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0074.440.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0342.8660.54-0.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0371.4373.040.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0371.4354.860.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0328.5731.44-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.630.000.02
DukeACC0.000.0388.8978.400.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0056.740.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0371.4359.880.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0333.3352.11-0.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4358.920.000.01
MarylandB100.000.0387.5059.330.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.780.0328.5732.62-0.33-0.01
MississippiSEC0.780.0375.0048.500.39-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0375.0070.620.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0048.10-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0357.1444.890.00-0.00
NJITASun0.780.0350.0049.780.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.780.0375.0056.590.390.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0048.810.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0385.7145.370.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0078.850.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0342.8638.63-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0314.2926.74-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0366.6758.060.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0371.4366.700.000.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0061.680.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0385.7170.060.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0033.85-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.780.03100.0084.840.780.02
VirginiaACC0.000.0387.5078.510.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.990.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.030.0016.68-0.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.03-0.00-0.01