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Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


McNeese St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:262.5
Current RPI:134
Expected SOS:323
Current SOS:21
Current Record:0-1
Expected Record:11-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-6
Current OOC Record:0-1
Expected OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC RPI:244
Expected OOC SOS:55



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-593.00.01%
19-6141.00.01%
18-7128.80.16%
17-8143.40.67%
16-9166.52.01%
15-10185.14.57%
14-11207.68.83%
13-12230.814.26%
12-13253.517.44%
11-14275.118.04%
10-15293.615.11%
9-16309.710.26%
8-17322.75.10%
7-18334.22.43%
6-19341.80.88%
5-20345.30.17%
4-21347.80.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for McNeese St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Baylor (23.6)B12A80-39L0%0.0
11-29LSU (90.6)SECA0-09%-16.5
12-6Louisiana Lafayette (245.2)SBH0-058%2.5
12-13TCU (133.6)B12A0-010%-15.6
12-20Toledo (67.7)MACH0-024%-8.5
12-22Central Michigan (175.6)MACH0-045%-1.5
12-30Mississippi St. (176.2)SECA0-019%-10.7
1-3Stephen F. Austin (116.4)SlndH0-031%-5.8
1-5Houston Baptist (320.9)SlndH0-080%10.0
1-10Texas A&M Corpus Chris (169.8)SlndA0-023%-8.7
1-17Sam Houston St. (158.4)SlndA0-020%-10.0
1-20Abilene Christian (315.6)SlndH0-076%8.7
1-24Northwestern St. (187.6)SlndA0-026%-7.8
1-26Incarnate Word (206.9)SlndA0-033%-5.2
1-31New Orleans (282.4)SlndH0-070%6.3
2-2Southeastern Louisiana (310.5)SlndA0-052%0.7
2-7Nicholls St. (301.0)SlndA0-053%1.0
2-9New Orleans (282.4)SlndA0-047%-0.9
2-14Northwestern St. (187.6)SlndH0-048%-0.7
2-16Southeastern Louisiana (310.5)SlndH0-074%7.9
2-21Lamar (294.3)SlndA0-049%-0.2
2-24Central Arkansas (334.0)SlndA0-063%3.9
2-28Nicholls St. (301.0)SlndH0-075%8.2
3-2Lamar (294.3)SlndH0-072%7.0
3-8Central Arkansas (334.0)SlndH0-082%11.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

McNeese St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


McNeese St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  McNeese St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
McNeese St.Slnd31.2526.390.0045.95-31.25-2.14
Northwestern St.Slnd0.004.980.0053.16-0.000.32
New OrleansSlnd0.004.970.0034.20-0.00-1.57
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.004.970.0029.11-0.00-2.08
Central ArkansasSlnd0.004.970.0020.94-0.00-2.89
Nicholls St.Slnd0.004.950.0029.07-0.00-2.07
LamarSlnd0.004.800.0033.68-0.00-1.57
Stephen F. AustinSlnd6.253.010.0065.54-6.250.93
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.002.9950.0063.620.000.81
Incarnate WordSlnd0.002.96100.0051.000.000.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.002.960.0030.38-0.00-1.16
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.002.9350.0062.580.000.74
Houston BaptistSlnd0.002.920.0025.14-0.00-1.45
TCUB120.002.15100.0056.450.000.28
BaylorB1250.002.10100.0069.0350.000.80
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.002.080.0039.80-0.00-0.42
ToledoMAC0.002.0850.0065.000.000.62
LSUSEC0.002.0760.0055.120.000.21
Central MichiganMAC0.002.07100.0053.100.000.13
Mississippi St.SEC0.002.03100.0046.190.00-0.15
Texas A&MSEC0.000.3375.0069.180.000.13
OklahomaB120.000.2866.6758.810.000.05
Texas TechB120.000.2566.6745.370.00-0.02
TroySB0.000.220.0044.74-0.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.22100.0067.390.000.07
Arkansas St.SB0.000.210.0040.87-0.00-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.000.20100.0055.770.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.2080.0072.030.000.09
Texas St.SB0.000.1966.6748.390.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.18100.0074.590.000.09
West VirginiaB120.000.17100.0070.420.000.07
MississippiSEC0.000.1775.0055.660.000.02
IndianaB100.000.1680.0057.960.000.03
DenverSum0.000.1666.6764.880.000.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1550.0062.790.000.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.1433.3346.31-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.14100.0050.790.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.14100.0043.380.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1466.6753.220.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.1466.6750.930.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC6.250.140.0040.20-6.25-0.03
AuburnSEC0.000.1450.0032.620.00-0.05
VanderbiltSEC0.000.14100.0050.840.000.00
KansasB120.000.1466.6758.820.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.1475.0057.780.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1433.3343.01-0.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.14100.0079.170.000.08
TennesseeSEC0.000.1350.0041.580.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1366.6745.370.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.1233.3327.72-0.00-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1250.0050.880.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.1266.6738.720.00-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.12100.0031.710.00-0.04
TulsaAmer0.000.1275.0058.430.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1275.0056.390.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.110.0038.56-0.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.1166.6752.810.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.1166.6759.480.000.02
OhioMAC0.000.1150.0055.630.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.1133.3322.95-0.00-0.06
UTEPCUSA0.000.11100.0070.270.000.04
AkronMAC0.000.1175.0069.590.000.04
Kent St.MAC0.000.1175.0066.130.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.100.0016.93-0.00-0.07
South CarolinaSEC6.250.1040.0050.01-1.250.00
MissouriSEC0.000.1050.0043.080.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.1050.0035.290.00-0.03
FloridaSEC0.000.1066.6768.660.000.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.0875.0050.400.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0840.0050.60-0.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.08100.0041.460.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.08100.0070.020.000.03
SMUAmer0.000.0850.0069.360.000.03
UCLAP120.000.08100.0064.700.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0860.0045.520.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.08100.0084.620.000.06
HoustonAmer0.000.08100.0063.820.000.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.080.0029.28-0.00-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0740.0043.71-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0750.0050.520.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0733.3363.19-0.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0039.32-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0750.0026.270.00-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.07100.0058.710.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0766.6732.480.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0750.0066.640.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0766.6757.060.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0750.0037.390.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0750.0055.640.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.070.0066.25-0.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0060.130.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0720.0053.69-0.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0766.6746.410.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0760.0056.230.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0775.0058.190.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0775.0056.780.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.07100.0087.980.000.05
GonzagaWCC0.000.07100.0086.000.000.05
South FloridaAmer0.000.0766.6751.260.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.07100.0047.530.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0733.3333.50-0.00-0.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0733.3354.48-0.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0425.0040.14-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.04100.0062.840.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0425.0046.39-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0420.0029.26-0.00-0.02
MaineAE0.000.040.0017.71-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.040.0032.95-0.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0440.0038.36-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0475.0063.510.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0433.3334.36-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.04100.0054.620.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0475.0074.330.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0440.0033.57-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.04100.0061.740.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0425.0040.65-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0425.0052.91-0.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.040.0039.25-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0425.0035.54-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.04100.0071.240.000.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0450.0045.970.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.040.0034.67-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.040.0036.85-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0475.0051.180.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.0480.0076.960.000.02
XavierBE0.000.04100.0080.240.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0325.0042.98-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0023.63-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0340.0066.65-0.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0333.3347.25-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0366.6745.890.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0039.51-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0366.6753.640.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0375.0060.930.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0333.3354.64-0.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.0320.0035.82-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0022.57-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3346.01-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0085.500.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3323.97-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0020.03-0.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0325.0057.73-0.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3339.78-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.030.0029.78-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0375.0068.720.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3350.07-0.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0042.83-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0027.43-0.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.0375.0067.590.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0333.3328.67-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0051.710.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0340.0053.80-0.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0340.0059.10-0.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0380.0061.930.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0380.0074.980.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0340.0034.21-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0054.250.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0333.3342.50-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0325.0053.38-0.000.00