MD Baltimore County

Conference:	AE
Expected RPI:	332.6
Current RPI:	331
Expected SOS:	315
Current SOS:	304
Current Record:	3-19
Expected Record:	5-24
Current Conf Record:	2-8
Expected Conf Record:	4-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-11
Current OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC Record:	1-12
Expected OOC RPI:	332
Expected OOC SOS:	280

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-20	296.0	0.01%
8-21	308.7	0.38%
7-22	317.3	4.06%
6-23	325.7	18.20%
5-24	332.3	34.40%
4-25	336.7	32.42%
3-26	339.6	10.52%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for MD Baltimore County.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Pennsylvania (113.9)	Ivy	H	45-59	L	0%	0.0
11-13	St. John's (151.1)	BE	A	82-59	L	0%	0.0
11-17	Loyola MD (83.9)	MAAC	H	63-73	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Virginia Military Inst (264.1)	BSth	A	84-79	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Central Connecticut (236.3)	NEC	A	77-69	L	0%	0.0
11-28	Rutgers (141.7)	BE	A	94-56	L	0%	0.0
12-1	American (150.9)	Pat	A	69-58	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Towson (304.8)	CAA	A	58-62	W	100%	0.0
12-14	Morgan St. (264.2)	MEAC	H	60-73	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Rider (213.8)	MAAC	H	66-73	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Indiana (20.6)	B10	A	89-47	L	0%	0.0
12-28	Niagara (208.7)	MAAC	A	92-75	L	0%	0.0
1-2	New Hampshire (315.8)	AE	A	76-82	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Albany (208.3)	AE	H	72-89	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Maine (261.2)	AE	A	89-70	L	0%	0.0
1-11	Stony Brook (154.7)	AE	H	49-89	L	0%	0.0
1-17	Hartford (328.5)	AE	A	74-57	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Binghamton (343.4)	AE	H	64-58	W	100%	0.0
1-22	Vermont (173.1)	AE	H	62-90	L	0%	0.0
1-24	Boston University (175.2)	AE	A	83-48	L	0%	0.0
2-1	Albany (208.3)	AE	A	87-76	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Maine (261.2)	AE	H	76-77	L	0%	0.0
2-7	Hartford (328.5)	AE	H	0-0		50%	0.1
2-9	Stony Brook (154.7)	AE	A	0-0		2%	-22.2
2-12	New Hampshire (315.8)	AE	H	0-0		35%	-4.3
2-15	Binghamton (343.4)	AE	A	0-0		47%	-0.8
2-18	Canisius (322.0)	MAAC	A	0-0		24%	-7.7
2-22	Boston University (175.2)	AE	H	0-0		13%	-12.2
2-25	Vermont (173.1)	AE	A	0-0		3%	-20.9

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

MD Baltimore County's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

MD Baltimore County's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against MD Baltimore County.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
MD Baltimore County	AE	26.31	26.33	16.04	18.29	-17.87	-16.70
Stony Brook	AE	3.05	4.36	65.00	65.57	0.92	1.36
Vermont	AE	2.93	4.35	58.33	60.00	0.49	0.87
Hartford	AE	3.02	4.34	13.64	16.97	-2.20	-2.87
New Hampshire	AE	2.87	4.33	36.84	39.06	-0.75	-0.95
Boston University	AE	2.88	4.32	45.83	49.01	-0.24	-0.09
Albany	AE	5.06	4.32	56.52	57.69	0.66	0.66
Binghamton	AE	2.94	4.31	0.00	2.37	-2.94	-4.11
Maine	AE	4.99	4.28	44.44	45.71	-0.55	-0.37
Rider	MAAC	2.43	2.05	34.78	36.47	-0.74	-0.55
Niagara	MAAC	2.48	2.04	34.78	39.59	-0.75	-0.43
Loyola MD	MAAC	2.47	2.01	76.19	72.50	1.29	0.91
Canisius	MAAC	0.25	1.95	17.39	17.80	-0.16	-1.26
Towson	CAA	2.32	1.84	4.17	5.43	-2.13	-1.64
Rutgers	BE	2.33	1.82	47.83	45.04	-0.10	-0.18
Central Connecticut	NEC	2.37	1.81	42.86	43.69	-0.34	-0.23
Indiana	B10	2.33	1.79	73.91	74.97	1.11	0.89
Pennsylvania	Ivy	2.32	1.75	52.38	55.40	0.11	0.19
St. John's	BE	2.27	1.75	40.91	38.29	-0.41	-0.41
American	Pat	2.27	1.72	63.64	62.50	0.62	0.43
Morgan St.	MEAC	2.27	1.72	21.05	35.26	-1.32	-0.51
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	2.27	1.72	42.11	41.92	-0.36	-0.28
Marist	MAAC	0.40	0.50	34.78	33.43	-0.12	-0.17
Brown	Ivy	0.46	0.36	27.27	23.80	-0.21	-0.19
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.24	0.35	21.74	24.58	-0.14	-0.18
Manhattan	MAAC	0.39	0.35	68.00	69.07	0.14	0.13
Siena	MAAC	0.38	0.34	45.45	45.55	-0.03	-0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.34	0.32	36.84	41.45	-0.09	-0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.25	0.29	54.55	54.30	0.02	0.03
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.24	0.29	56.52	57.15	0.03	0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.24	0.29	79.17	80.10	0.14	0.17
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.31	0.28	44.00	45.89	-0.04	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.24	0.26	14.29	17.17	-0.17	-0.17
Northeastern	CAA	0.19	0.26	47.83	48.56	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.27	0.25	40.91	42.05	-0.05	-0.04
Colgate	Pat	0.30	0.24	30.43	29.50	-0.12	-0.10
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.29	0.24	26.09	28.60	-0.14	-0.10
La Salle	A10	0.29	0.23	70.83	68.82	0.12	0.09
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.24	0.21	8.70	12.13	-0.20	-0.16
Bucknell	Pat	0.20	0.20	73.91	75.00	0.09	0.10
Yale	Ivy	0.20	0.20	72.22	63.19	0.09	0.05
Pittsburgh	BE	0.29	0.20	60.87	58.16	0.06	0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.28	0.19	33.33	34.47	-0.09	-0.06
Boston College	ACC	0.16	0.18	30.43	26.44	-0.06	-0.09
Notre Dame	BE	0.21	0.18	65.22	62.65	0.06	0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.24	0.17	79.17	78.10	0.14	0.10
Villanova	BE	0.20	0.17	45.45	46.08	-0.02	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.09	0.17	90.48	87.91	0.07	0.13
Army	Pat	0.15	0.15	40.91	41.72	-0.03	-0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.16	0.15	55.00	54.80	0.02	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.19	0.14	60.00	58.29	0.04	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.20	0.14	62.50	62.49	0.05	0.04
Hofstra	CAA	0.14	0.14	32.00	35.39	-0.05	-0.04
Monmouth	NEC	0.24	0.14	28.00	28.91	-0.10	-0.06
James Madison	CAA	0.10	0.14	40.00	40.18	-0.02	-0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.14	0.14	47.83	50.65	-0.01	0.00
Radford	BSth	0.11	0.13	8.70	13.10	-0.09	-0.09
Northwestern	B10	0.11	0.12	61.90	55.14	0.03	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.21	0.12	68.18	63.99	0.08	0.03
Providence	BE	0.15	0.12	56.52	50.27	0.02	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.16	0.12	20.83	20.60	-0.09	-0.07
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.15	0.12	42.11	49.81	-0.02	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.21	0.12	36.36	38.48	-0.06	-0.03
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.15	0.12	21.74	22.76	-0.08	-0.06
Robert Morris	NEC	0.15	0.12	68.00	70.03	0.05	0.05
Howard	MEAC	0.14	0.12	18.18	22.22	-0.09	-0.06
Navy	Pat	0.14	0.12	9.52	13.19	-0.11	-0.08
Penn St.	B10	0.14	0.12	41.67	38.67	-0.02	-0.03
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.19	0.11	56.52	55.95	0.03	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.15	0.11	80.95	77.38	0.09	0.06
George Mason	CAA	0.18	0.11	76.00	72.50	0.09	0.05
Princeton	Ivy	0.15	0.11	47.37	52.87	-0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.14	0.11	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.14	0.11	95.83	92.01	0.13	0.09
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.10	27.27	27.21	-0.03	-0.04
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.10	0.09	34.78	38.77	-0.03	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.17	0.09	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.09	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.05
Wagner	NEC	0.10	0.09	82.61	84.57	0.07	0.06
Ohio St.	B10	0.15	0.09	86.96	85.46	0.11	0.06
William & Mary	CAA	0.09	0.09	12.50	13.44	-0.07	-0.06
Fordham	A10	0.10	0.09	40.91	34.50	-0.02	-0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.10	0.09	43.48	42.95	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.10	0.09	73.91	74.91	0.05	0.04
Missouri	B12	0.10	0.09	91.30	87.18	0.08	0.06
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.09	60.00	59.06	0.02	0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.10	0.09	70.83	71.05	0.04	0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.09	76.19	72.91	0.05	0.04
Kentucky	SEC	0.15	0.09	95.83	92.57	0.14	0.07
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.08	69.57	65.47	0.04	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.08	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.14	0.08	72.73	66.81	0.06	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.00	0.08	65.22	63.74	0.00	0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.14	0.08	65.22	65.17	0.04	0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.07	55.00	60.33	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.06	0.07	72.22	71.97	0.03	0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.11	0.07	68.18	67.64	0.04	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.07	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.11	0.07	34.78	34.61	-0.03	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.11	0.06	33.33	33.82	-0.04	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.11	0.06	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
Longwood	ind	0.06	0.06	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.10	0.06	8.33	10.86	-0.09	-0.05
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.00	0.06	35.29	39.85	-0.00	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.06	68.18	69.68	0.04	0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.06	0.06	82.61	81.44	0.04	0.04
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.06	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.00	0.06	26.32	28.83	-0.00	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.06	73.91	68.58	0.05	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.10	0.06	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.06	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.06	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.06	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.06	86.36	83.09	0.07	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.06	82.61	77.63	0.06	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.06	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.06	78.26	72.66	0.05	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.06	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.09	0.06	59.09	50.82	0.02	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.06	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.06	65.22	60.58	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.06	77.27	77.67	0.02	0.03
Texas	B12	0.05	0.06	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.06	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.06	80.00	78.06	0.03	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.03	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.03	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.00
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.03	31.82	32.75	-0.02	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.03	9.52	11.44	-0.05	-0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.03	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.00	0.03	19.05	22.37	-0.00	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.03	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	100.00	94.55	0.06	0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.03	81.82	77.20	0.04	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.03	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	10.00	14.93	-0.05	-0.02
Southern California	P12	0.06	0.03	25.00	25.13	-0.03	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.06	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.00	0.03	19.05	21.29	-0.00	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.00	0.03	34.78	35.20	-0.00	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.05	0.03	69.57	73.28	0.02	0.01
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.03	27.27	35.02	-0.02	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.03	76.19	76.76	0.03	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.03	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.02	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.00	0.03	72.73	64.43	0.00	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.03	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.03	70.83	71.64	0.02	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.03	65.00	60.02	0.01	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	33.46	-0.01	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.03	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.03	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.03	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.03	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	26.32	29.79	-0.02	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.03	73.91	75.49	0.02	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.03	31.82	31.31	-0.02	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.03	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.03	19.05	24.61	-0.03	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	73.97	0.02	0.01