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Through games of Jan 29, 2015.


UC Irvine

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:111.9
Current RPI:119
Expected SOS:148
Current SOS:151
Current Record:10-8
Expected Record:16-12
Current Conf Record:5-1
Expected Conf Record:11-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:155
Expected OOC SOS:115



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-859.00.66%
19-972.24.94%
18-1086.215.18%
17-11100.926.46%
16-12116.327.04%
15-13133.916.43%
14-14153.37.33%
13-15174.31.69%
12-16191.90.24%
11-17211.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Irvine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Pacific (227.1)WCCH68-50W100%0.0
11-19Arizona (5.2)P12A71-54L0%0.0
11-23Saint Mary's (50.6)WCCA72-69L0%0.0
11-29Loyola Marymount (245.4)WCCA72-80W100%0.0
12-3Fresno St. (220.7)MWCA72-63L0%0.0
12-6Sacramento St. (148.7)BSkyH74-62W100%0.0
12-13UT Arlington (139.3)SBH62-70L0%0.0
12-16Morgan St. (324.9)MEACA63-62L0%0.0
12-21Bradley (279.7)MVCN47-55W100%0.0
12-22Green Bay (52.7)HorzN72-70W100%0.0
12-29Oregon (87.0)P12A69-67L0%0.0
1-3New Mexico St. (128.4)WACA70-67L0%0.0
1-8Long Beach St. (77.7)BWH82-88L0%0.0
1-10UC Riverside (261.8)BWH69-55W100%0.0
1-15Cal St. Fullerton (287.0)BWA58-63W100%0.0
1-22Cal St. Northridge (278.6)BWA49-80W100%0.0
1-24Hawaii (181.3)BWA72-78W100%0.0
1-29Cal Poly (163.9)BWH67-57W100%0.0
1-31UC Santa Barbara (120.4)BWH0-062%3.5
2-5UC Davis (113.3)BWH0-071%6.1
2-7Long Beach St. (77.7)BWA0-039%-3.0
2-14UC Riverside (261.8)BWA0-072%6.4
2-19Hawaii (181.3)BWH0-075%7.5
2-21Cal St. Northridge (278.6)BWH0-090%14.3
2-26Cal Poly (163.9)BWA0-052%0.5
2-28UC Santa Barbara (120.4)BWA0-038%-3.4
3-5Cal St. Fullerton (287.0)BWH0-091%14.6
3-7UC Davis (113.3)BWA0-047%-0.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Irvine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Irvine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Irvine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC IrvineBW26.2826.3860.9862.585.776.64
Cal St. NorthridgeBW3.274.5525.0027.91-1.64-2.01
UC RiversideBW3.214.5441.1838.35-0.57-1.06
Cal PolyBW3.284.5050.0051.420.000.13
Cal St. FullertonBW3.084.4933.3333.11-1.03-1.52
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.444.4844.4452.26-0.050.20
HawaiiBW3.074.4668.4262.341.131.10
Long Beach St.BW3.004.4642.1150.64-0.470.06
UC DavisBW0.364.4476.4770.850.191.85
Saint Mary'sWCC3.202.0478.9573.301.850.95
Loyola MarymountWCC3.071.9825.0025.92-1.53-0.95
OregonP122.981.9763.1657.220.780.28
PacificWCC2.991.9438.8934.52-0.66-0.60
Morgan St.MEAC2.991.9415.7924.72-2.05-0.98
Sacramento St.BSky2.931.9170.5965.091.210.58
ArizonaP122.981.9090.0087.642.391.43
Fresno St.MWC2.931.8938.8935.73-0.65-0.54
New Mexico St.WAC2.851.8247.3760.63-0.150.39
BradleyMVC2.851.8230.0028.73-1.14-0.77
UT ArlingtonSB2.841.8255.5656.400.320.23
Green BayHorz2.781.7983.3380.851.851.10
SeattleWAC0.290.3547.0649.37-0.02-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.490.3460.0057.770.100.05
GonzagaWCC0.430.3295.2494.640.390.29
Santa ClaraWCC0.360.3245.0040.47-0.04-0.06
San FranciscoWCC0.360.3238.1041.76-0.09-0.05
BYUWCC0.350.3166.6767.920.120.11
NevadaMWC0.440.2823.5325.36-0.23-0.14
San Diego St.MWC0.430.2775.0075.670.210.14
UCLAP120.290.2757.1455.730.040.03
San DiegoWCC0.210.2647.6246.47-0.01-0.02
PortlandWCC0.290.2250.0049.080.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.290.2238.8939.73-0.06-0.05
Portland St.BSky0.210.2247.0644.93-0.01-0.02
Washington St.P120.070.2245.0036.05-0.01-0.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.290.2226.3236.41-0.14-0.06
San Jose St.MWC0.150.190.001.50-0.15-0.18
Colorado St.MWC0.140.1985.0081.560.100.12
CaliforniaP120.220.1957.1447.840.03-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.290.1865.0063.090.090.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.280.1836.8438.06-0.07-0.04
WashingtonP120.210.1870.0063.130.080.05
Oregon St.P120.140.1868.4260.520.050.04
USCP120.210.1845.0038.97-0.02-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.270.1890.0088.060.220.14
Northern ColoradoBSky0.150.1647.0652.46-0.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.290.1642.1147.36-0.05-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.1663.1667.460.020.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.220.1650.0052.530.000.01
UtahP120.140.1578.9580.160.080.09
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.210.1552.9447.000.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.200.1552.3853.710.010.01
ColoradoP120.140.1555.0052.260.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1355.0053.790.000.01
IdahoBSky0.080.1337.5043.26-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.070.1357.8955.970.010.02
Georgia St.SB0.290.1365.0068.130.090.05
Wright St.Horz0.150.1345.0046.67-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.140.1268.4269.400.050.05
Montana St.BSky0.220.1215.7919.24-0.15-0.08
East CarolinaAmer0.220.1233.3331.55-0.07-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.210.1275.0069.800.110.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.210.1244.4449.87-0.02-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.140.1285.0078.450.090.07
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.140.1282.3584.880.090.08
XavierBE0.140.1266.6765.800.050.04
StanfordP120.130.1275.0071.450.070.05
Kansas St.B120.200.1257.1446.770.03-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.150.1063.6464.410.040.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.1038.8937.19-0.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.150.1035.2932.57-0.05-0.03
MercerSC0.070.1050.0052.660.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.150.0938.4633.52-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.140.0942.8642.94-0.02-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.140.0915.0017.49-0.10-0.06
Chicago St.WAC0.070.095.2610.53-0.07-0.07
Western MichiganMAC0.140.0961.1156.260.030.01
OaklandHorz0.140.0940.0043.64-0.03-0.01
WyomingMWC0.140.0978.9573.800.080.04
DrakeMVC0.140.0920.0021.28-0.08-0.05
St. John'sBE0.140.0963.1658.080.040.01
UTEPCUSA0.210.0965.0068.720.060.03
MaristMAAC0.140.0910.0013.97-0.11-0.07
NebraskaB100.140.0960.0049.440.03-0.00
TexasB120.140.0970.0067.320.060.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0910.5319.78-0.05-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.140.0990.4885.040.110.06
DelawareCAA0.080.0720.0022.26-0.05-0.04
IPFWSum0.080.0738.8941.67-0.02-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0770.5973.350.030.03
FurmanSC0.000.0727.7831.26-0.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.150.0715.7922.83-0.10-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.080.0723.5330.64-0.04-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0723.5328.20-0.04-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.150.0638.8943.58-0.03-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0650.0053.360.000.00
KansasB120.000.0685.0077.520.000.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0630.0030.15-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0641.1838.33-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0680.0077.800.000.04
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0680.0079.210.040.04
VermontAE0.000.0650.0055.830.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0633.3333.68-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0642.1139.01-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0642.1140.50-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.070.0641.1840.92-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0673.3372.090.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0644.4451.68-0.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.150.0652.9453.170.010.00
South AlabamaSB0.070.0626.3229.19-0.03-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0627.7828.20-0.00-0.03
Texas St.SB0.070.0643.7546.21-0.01-0.00
TroySB0.070.0629.4129.75-0.03-0.02
UMKCWAC0.070.0630.0036.10-0.03-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.070.0663.1663.410.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.060.004.66-0.14-0.05
UNLVMWC0.070.0655.0055.270.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0628.5736.68-0.03-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.070.0640.0038.71-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.070.0673.6870.420.030.02
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0660.0060.180.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0645.0043.95-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0657.8958.420.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0654.5556.920.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0631.5834.27-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0657.1462.470.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0615.0023.65-0.05-0.03
PittsburghACC0.070.0660.0052.040.010.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0621.0533.18-0.04-0.02
SamfordSC0.070.0636.3636.12-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.070.0642.8644.87-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0631.5844.68-0.03-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.0638.1036.85-0.03-0.02
SyracuseACC0.070.0666.6758.800.020.01
MichiganB100.140.0660.0052.300.030.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0352.9455.910.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0331.2527.76-0.03-0.01
CreightonBE0.070.0345.4540.61-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.070.0342.8646.32-0.01-0.00
Miami FLACC0.070.0370.0066.140.030.01
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0338.1045.39-0.02-0.00
WisconsinB100.070.0390.0087.270.060.02
BaylorB120.070.0373.6869.380.030.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.0368.4266.110.030.01
DePaulBE0.070.0350.0042.580.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.070.03100.0098.400.070.03
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0347.3749.64-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0336.8437.34-0.02-0.01
StetsonASun0.070.0316.6722.55-0.05-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0345.0057.10-0.010.00
Texas TechB120.070.0352.3840.090.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0321.0530.44-0.04-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0373.3372.480.030.01
ElonCAA0.070.0345.0042.60-0.01-0.00
HoustonAmer0.070.0340.0037.07-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0341.1844.45-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.070.0361.9060.260.020.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0311.1116.23-0.05-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0347.3747.13-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.070.0350.0044.460.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.070.0365.0061.640.020.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0365.0063.000.020.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0372.2277.830.000.02
Penn St.B100.070.0366.6754.180.020.00
RiderMAAC0.070.0363.6464.820.020.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0352.3856.160.000.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0342.1136.43-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0316.6725.21-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0328.5732.25-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.070.0370.0059.730.030.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0360.0058.600.010.01
TowsonCAA0.070.0342.8639.21-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.070.0385.0082.080.050.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0345.0037.40-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0350.0052.150.000.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0331.5830.44-0.02-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0345.0049.29-0.01-0.00