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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


UC Irvine

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:111.0
Current RPI:111
Expected SOS:218
Current SOS:218
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:14-4
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-2
Current OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC RPI:125
Expected OOC SOS:111



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-11111.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Irvine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Fresno St. (117.0)MWCH97-98L0%0.0
11-12Pacific (133.0)WCCA84-79L0%0.0
11-14Washington (104.0)P12A72-86W100%0.0
11-22LIU Brooklyn (297.0)NECH84-64W100%0.0
11-23Boston University (84.0)PatH68-74L0%0.0
11-24Eastern Washington (228.0)BSkyH81-58W100%0.0
11-30Sacramento St. (263.0)BSkyA53-79W100%0.0
12-2California (63.0)P12A73-56L0%0.0
12-7Pepperdine (159.0)WCCH69-75L0%0.0
12-15Eastern Washington (228.0)BSkyA61-70W100%0.0
12-17Oregon (28.0)P12A91-63L0%0.0
12-21Denver (139.0)SumA50-63W100%0.0
12-28Arizona St. (44.0)P12A74-61L0%0.0
1-2Morgan St. (225.0)MEACH75-63W100%0.0
1-9Long Beach St. (166.0)BWA44-46W100%0.0
1-11UC Riverside (319.0)BWA52-72W100%0.0
1-16Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWH72-54W100%0.0
1-23Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWH72-66W100%0.0
1-25Hawaii (160.0)BWH86-90L0%0.0
1-30UC Santa Barbara (107.0)BWA80-60L0%0.0
2-1Cal Poly (208.0)BWA50-64W100%0.0
2-6Long Beach St. (166.0)BWH61-58W100%0.0
2-8UC Davis (326.0)BWA59-61W100%0.0
2-15UC Riverside (319.0)BWH70-52W100%0.0
2-20Hawaii (160.0)BWA56-60W100%0.0
2-22Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWA81-75L0%0.0
2-27UC Santa Barbara (107.0)BWH71-60W100%0.0
3-1Cal Poly (208.0)BWH55-48W100%0.0
3-6Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWA44-62W100%0.0
3-8UC Davis (326.0)BWH74-46W100%0.0
3-13UC Riverside (319.0)BWN63-43W100%0.0
3-14Cal Poly (208.0)BWN58-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Irvine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Irvine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Irvine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC IrvineBW26.5226.5267.3167.319.189.18
Cal PolyBW5.665.6637.0437.04-1.47-1.47
UC RiversideBW5.525.5230.7730.77-2.12-2.12
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.214.2145.1645.16-0.41-0.41
Long Beach St.BW4.094.0946.4346.43-0.29-0.29
Cal St. FullertonBW4.074.0737.9337.93-0.98-0.98
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.064.0669.2369.231.561.56
HawaiiBW4.014.0162.9662.961.041.04
UC DavisBW3.993.9925.9325.93-1.92-1.92
Eastern WashingtonBSky3.263.2648.1548.15-0.12-0.12
Sacramento St.BSky1.861.8644.4444.44-0.21-0.21
OregonP121.811.8170.9770.970.760.76
CaliforniaP121.791.7958.0658.060.290.29
WashingtonP121.791.7954.8454.840.170.17
PepperdineWCC1.771.7744.8344.83-0.18-0.18
PacificWCC1.741.7446.4346.43-0.12-0.12
Fresno St.MWC1.741.7446.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Arizona St.P121.681.6864.5264.520.490.49
Boston UniversityPat1.641.6469.7069.700.650.65
LIU BrooklynNEC1.641.6432.1432.14-0.59-0.59
Morgan St.MEAC1.631.6350.0050.000.000.00
DenverSum1.611.6151.7251.720.060.06
SeattleWAC0.420.4239.2939.29-0.09-0.09
Montana St.BSky0.390.3941.3841.38-0.07-0.07
StanfordP120.350.3563.6463.640.100.10
North DakotaBSky0.320.3248.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.320.3238.7138.71-0.07-0.07
Southern UtahBSky0.320.323.573.57-0.29-0.29
ArizonaP120.300.3088.2488.240.230.23
USCP120.300.3032.2632.26-0.11-0.11
NevadaMWC0.290.2946.8846.88-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.260.2638.7138.71-0.06-0.06
UCLAP120.250.2576.4776.470.130.13
UtahP120.250.2563.3363.330.070.07
Oregon St.P120.250.2551.6151.610.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.240.2455.1755.170.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.240.2445.1645.16-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.240.2453.5753.570.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.240.2465.6265.620.070.07
ColoradoP120.230.2367.6567.650.080.08
Portland St.BSky0.220.2251.7251.720.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Air ForceMWC0.210.2135.7135.71-0.06-0.06
Washington St.P120.200.2030.0030.00-0.08-0.08
San DiegoWCC0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
San Jose St.MWC0.180.1817.2417.24-0.12-0.12
Utah St.MWC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.160.1660.7160.710.040.04
PortlandWCC0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.160.1687.1087.100.120.12
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
IdahoWAC0.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1325.9325.93-0.06-0.06
BYUWCC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
South DakotaSum0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
MissouriSEC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1148.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Kansas St.B120.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
PittsburghACC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
CreightonBE0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
UICHorz0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
North TexasCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0878.5778.570.040.04
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Miami FLACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
ArmyPat0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
IUPUISum0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0593.1093.100.040.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
BucknellPat0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
DePaulBE0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.8114.81-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
IllinoisB100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Texas TechB120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
TulaneCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01