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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


UC Irvine

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:135.0
Current RPI:135
Expected SOS:191
Current SOS:191
Current Record:19-14
Expected Record:19-14
Current Conf Record:14-5
Expected Conf Record:14-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-4
Current OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC RPI:109
Expected OOC SOS:10



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-14135.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Irvine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Utah St. (181.0)MWCH56-72L0%0.0
11-14South Dakota St. (160.0)SumH73-58W100%0.0
11-16California (53.0)P12A75-65L0%0.0
11-19Pacific (223.0)WCCH72-65W100%0.0
11-25South Dakota St. (160.0)SumN52-63W100%0.0
11-26Milwaukee (256.0)HorzN37-54L0%0.0
11-27East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCN72-66L0%0.0
11-30Santa Clara (126.0)WCCA55-58W100%0.0
12-6Arizona (2.0)P12A79-57L0%0.0
12-11Saint Mary's (17.0)WCCA84-53L0%0.0
12-14Nevada (29.0)MWCA76-69L0%0.0
12-19New Mexico St. (59.0)WACA85-79L0%0.0
12-21Akron (58.0)MACN80-88L0%0.0
12-22UTEP (222.0)CUSAA57-62W100%0.0
1-4Long Beach St. (214.0)BWH82-67W100%0.0
1-7Hawaii (300.0)BWH84-56W100%0.0
1-12UC Santa Barbara (324.0)BWA62-66W100%0.0
1-14Cal St. Fullerton (269.0)BWH87-67W100%0.0
1-18Cal Poly (297.0)BWA48-70W100%0.0
1-21Cal St. Northridge (312.0)BWA73-105W100%0.0
1-26Cal Poly (297.0)BWH66-79L0%0.0
1-28UC Davis (166.0)BWA74-65L0%0.0
2-4Long Beach St. (214.0)BWA72-63L0%0.0
2-8UC Santa Barbara (324.0)BWH64-47W100%0.0
2-11Hawaii (300.0)BWA58-72W100%0.0
2-18UC Riverside (330.0)BWH79-60W100%0.0
2-22Cal St. Fullerton (269.0)BWA56-54L0%0.0
2-25Cal St. Northridge (312.0)BWH83-80W100%0.0
3-1UC Riverside (330.0)BWA56-68W100%0.0
3-4UC Davis (166.0)BWH79-49W100%0.0
3-9UC Riverside (330.0)BWN76-67W100%0.0
3-10Long Beach St. (214.0)BWN62-57W100%0.0
3-11UC Davis (166.0)BWN47-50L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Irvine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Irvine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Irvine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC IrvineBW26.5926.5961.0761.075.895.89
UC DavisBW5.545.5462.0762.071.341.34
Long Beach St.BW5.475.4741.3841.38-0.94-0.94
UC RiversideBW5.395.3925.0025.00-2.69-2.69
Cal St. FullertonBW4.064.0651.8551.850.150.15
Cal PolyBW4.014.0129.6329.63-1.63-1.63
HawaiiBW3.983.9848.1548.15-0.15-0.15
Cal St. NorthridgeBW3.963.9638.4638.46-0.91-0.91
UC Santa BarbaraBW3.933.9320.0020.00-2.36-2.36
South Dakota St.Sum3.103.1053.3353.330.210.21
Santa ClaraWCC1.791.7951.6151.610.060.06
CaliforniaP121.731.7362.5062.500.430.43
NevadaMWC1.691.6981.8281.821.081.08
PacificWCC1.681.6832.2632.26-0.60-0.60
New Mexico St.WAC1.641.6482.7682.761.071.07
Saint Mary'sWCC1.631.6387.1087.101.211.21
MilwaukeeHorz1.591.5927.2727.27-0.72-0.72
East Tennessee St.SC1.581.5877.4277.420.870.87
ArizonaP121.581.5887.8887.881.201.20
Utah St.MWC1.581.5841.3841.38-0.27-0.27
UTEPCUSA1.571.5746.6746.67-0.10-0.10
AkronMAC1.521.5275.0075.000.760.76
UCLAP120.380.3887.8887.880.290.29
PortlandWCC0.360.3629.0329.03-0.15-0.15
Nebraska OmahaSum0.300.3054.8454.840.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.290.2926.6726.67-0.13-0.13
San DiegoWCC0.280.2840.0040.00-0.06-0.06
WashingtonP120.270.2729.0329.03-0.11-0.11
GonzagaWCC0.260.2696.9796.970.240.24
New MexicoMWC0.250.2554.8454.840.020.02
UNLVMWC0.230.2334.3834.38-0.07-0.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.230.2342.8642.86-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.230.2362.0762.070.050.05
DenverSum0.230.2353.3353.330.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.220.2261.2961.290.050.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.220.2248.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.210.2132.2632.26-0.08-0.08
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.210.2167.8667.860.080.08
Grand CanyonWAC0.210.2168.9768.970.080.08
Colorado St.MWC0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
BYUWCC0.190.1966.6766.670.060.06
Oregon St.P120.180.1812.9012.90-0.14-0.14
SeattleWAC0.180.1837.0437.04-0.05-0.05
StanfordP120.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
Arizona St.P120.170.1745.4545.45-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
IdahoBSky0.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.170.1760.7160.710.040.04
Boise St.MWC0.150.1562.0762.070.040.04
San Jose St.MWC0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.140.1473.3373.330.060.06
Northern ColoradoBSky0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.130.1378.5778.570.070.07
USCP120.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
North CarolinaACC0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
UMKCWAC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Wichita St.MVC0.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
San Diego St.MWC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1223.0823.08-0.06-0.06
OregonP120.110.1184.8584.850.080.08
MontanaBSky0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
UTSACUSA0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.100.1064.7164.710.030.03
SamfordSC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
IUPUISum0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0953.5753.570.010.01
MercerSC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
ColoradoP120.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0810.3410.34-0.06-0.06
Seton HallBE0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
KansasB120.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
LouisvilleACC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
TexasB120.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Green BayHorz0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
OhioMAC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
SMUAmer0.060.0688.2488.240.040.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Texas St.SB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
RiceCUSA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.040.0460.0060.000.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0236.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.023.333.33-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
AmericanPat0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
DePaulBE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Michigan St.B100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00