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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


UC Irvine

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:75.0
Current RPI:75
Expected SOS:154
Current SOS:154
Current Record:23-9
Expected Record:23-9
Current Conf Record:14-4
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:17-0
Current OOC Record:9-5
Expected OOC Record:9-5
Expected OOC RPI:49
Expected OOC SOS:63



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-975.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Irvine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Loyola Marymount (223.0)WCCH77-53W100%0.0
11-18UCF (219.0)AmerA60-61W100%0.0
11-23Santa Clara (251.0)WCCH79-61W100%0.0
11-26Boise St. (101.0)MWCN71-64L0%0.0
11-27Boston College (250.0)ACCN67-80W100%0.0
11-29Evansville (93.0)MVCN75-56L0%0.0
12-4Pacific (268.0)WCCA67-70W100%0.0
12-6Saint Mary's (38.0)WCCA70-60L0%0.0
12-12Utah St. (151.0)MWCA63-73W100%0.0
12-15Oregon (2.0)P12A78-63L0%0.0
12-21Sam Houston St. (178.0)SlndN63-53W100%0.0
12-22Norfolk St. (225.0)MEACN62-80W100%0.0
12-29Kansas (1.0)B12A78-53L0%0.0
1-2New Mexico St. (111.0)WACH54-52W100%0.0
1-7UC Davis (281.0)BWH76-55W100%0.0
1-9UC Riverside (267.0)BWH84-68W100%0.0
1-14Long Beach St. (79.0)BWA54-58W100%0.0
1-16UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWA52-61W100%0.0
1-20Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWH72-59W100%0.0
1-27Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWA63-73W100%0.0
1-30UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWH60-76L0%0.0
2-3Cal Poly (236.0)BWA72-78W100%0.0
2-11Hawaii (80.0)BWA74-52L0%0.0
2-13Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWH93-84W100%0.0
2-17Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWA77-96W100%0.0
2-20Hawaii (80.0)BWH71-75L0%0.0
2-24Long Beach St. (79.0)BWH90-67W100%0.0
2-27UC Davis (281.0)BWA61-62W100%0.0
3-3Cal Poly (236.0)BWH72-62W100%0.0
3-5UC Riverside (267.0)BWA66-76W100%0.0
3-10Cal Poly (236.0)BWN84-64W100%0.0
3-11Long Beach St. (79.0)BWN72-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Irvine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Irvine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Irvine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC IrvineBW26.4726.4774.0574.0512.7312.73
Long Beach St.BW5.655.6558.6258.620.970.97
Cal PolyBW5.505.5032.0032.00-1.98-1.98
HawaiiBW4.164.1682.1482.142.672.67
UC RiversideBW4.114.1141.3841.38-0.71-0.71
Cal St. FullertonBW4.114.1130.7730.77-1.58-1.58
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.094.0957.1457.140.580.58
UC DavisBW4.074.0734.6234.62-1.25-1.25
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.004.0030.7730.77-1.54-1.54
Loyola MarymountWCC1.991.9944.8344.83-0.21-0.21
Saint Mary'sWCC1.891.8983.3383.331.261.26
Santa ClaraWCC1.821.8234.4834.48-0.57-0.57
PacificWCC1.771.7724.0024.00-0.92-0.92
Boise St.MWC1.721.7258.6258.620.300.30
OregonP121.661.6681.2581.251.041.04
New Mexico St.WAC1.641.6470.0070.000.650.65
Utah St.MWC1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC1.611.6171.8871.880.710.71
Boston CollegeACC1.591.5922.5822.58-0.87-0.87
Norfolk St.MEAC1.591.5950.0050.000.000.00
KansasB121.561.5687.5087.501.171.17
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.561.5653.5753.570.110.11
UCFAmer1.561.5641.3841.38-0.27-0.27
San DiegoWCC0.410.4127.5927.59-0.18-0.18
San FranciscoWCC0.370.3748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.370.3756.6756.670.050.05
PortlandWCC0.350.3535.4835.48-0.10-0.10
BYUWCC0.340.3468.7568.750.130.13
UCLAP120.280.2846.8846.88-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.270.2756.6756.670.040.04
Fresno St.MWC0.240.2471.8871.880.110.11
GonzagaWCC0.240.2478.1278.120.130.13
USCP120.240.2463.6463.640.070.07
UNLVMWC0.240.2451.6151.610.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.230.2350.0050.000.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.230.2371.8871.880.100.10
ArizonaP120.230.2375.7675.760.120.12
SeattleWAC0.210.2142.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.200.2060.0060.000.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.190.1937.5037.50-0.05-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.160.1676.6776.670.090.09
Air ForceMWC0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.160.1626.6726.67-0.07-0.07
New MexicoMWC0.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
WashingtonP120.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
CaliforniaP120.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.150.1572.4172.410.070.07
Sacramento St.BSky0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.130.1321.4321.43-0.08-0.08
WyomingMWC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
DukeACC0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
BaylorB120.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Portland St.BSky0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.100.1026.9226.92-0.05-0.05
UTEPCUSA0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
HowardMEAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1022.8622.86-0.05-0.05
OklahomaB120.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.080.0870.9770.970.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
UMBCAE0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
UTSACUSA0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
TulaneAmer0.080.0835.2935.29-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0818.5218.52-0.05-0.05
DenverSum0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Arizona St.P120.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0879.3179.310.040.04
OhioMAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
UMKCWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Michigan St.B100.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.070.0712.9012.90-0.05-0.05
Seton HallBE0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
StanfordP120.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
Kansas St.B120.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
UtahP120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
IdahoBSky0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0582.1482.140.030.03
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
VermontAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.453.45-0.05-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
MontanaBSky0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
StetsonASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
MaineAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
KentuckySEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
NavyPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Washington St.P120.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01