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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


UC Irvine

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:159.0
Current RPI:194
Expected SOS:214
Current SOS:224
Current Record:4-4
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-5
Current OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:116
Expected OOC SOS:26



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-543.00.01%
23-657.00.01%
22-769.80.09%
21-876.40.50%
20-989.01.98%
19-10102.84.96%
18-11117.210.35%
17-12133.415.89%
16-13150.919.67%
15-14169.217.89%
14-15188.214.51%
13-16208.38.48%
12-17228.93.71%
11-18247.31.46%
10-19267.20.40%
9-20285.20.05%
8-21302.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Irvine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Utah St. (122.3)MWCH56-72L0%0.0
11-14South Dakota St. (240.0)SumH73-58W100%0.0
11-16California (71.4)P12A75-65L0%0.0
11-19Pacific (171.2)WCCH72-65W100%0.0
11-25South Dakota St. (240.0)SumA52-63W100%0.0
11-26Milwaukee (255.6)HorzN37-54L0%0.0
11-27East Tennessee St. (70.7)SCN72-66L0%0.0
11-30Santa Clara (247.7)WCCA55-58W100%0.0
12-6Arizona (35.7)P12A0-010%-15.6
12-11Saint Mary's (15.8)WCCA0-06%-18.9
12-14Nevada (46.4)MWCA0-016%-11.7
12-19New Mexico St. (118.0)WACA0-033%-5.2
12-21Akron (81.5)MACN0-032%-5.6
1-4Long Beach St. (199.9)BWH0-067%5.2
1-7Hawaii (273.6)BWH0-071%6.8
1-12UC Santa Barbara (269.5)BWA0-060%2.9
1-14Cal St. Fullerton (322.2)BWH0-084%12.1
1-18Cal Poly (257.2)BWA0-057%2.2
1-21Cal St. Northridge (259.5)BWA0-056%1.7
1-26Cal Poly (257.2)BWH0-076%8.4
1-28UC Davis (252.0)BWA0-057%2.0
2-4Long Beach St. (199.9)BWA0-047%-1.0
2-8UC Santa Barbara (269.5)BWH0-078%9.2
2-11Hawaii (273.6)BWA0-052%0.5
2-18UC Riverside (295.2)BWH0-082%11.1
2-22Cal St. Fullerton (322.2)BWA0-069%5.9
2-25Cal St. Northridge (259.5)BWH0-075%8.0
3-1UC Riverside (295.2)BWA0-066%4.8
3-4UC Davis (252.0)BWH0-076%8.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Irvine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Irvine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Irvine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC IrvineBW29.2226.4550.0057.400.003.92
UC DavisBW0.354.3950.0046.860.00-0.28
Long Beach St.BW0.004.370.0037.92-0.00-1.06
Cal PolyBW0.004.3642.8642.13-0.00-0.69
Cal St. FullertonBW0.454.3528.5734.60-0.19-1.34
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.004.350.0034.05-0.00-1.39
UC RiversideBW0.004.350.0033.06-0.00-1.47
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.004.3328.5743.55-0.00-0.56
HawaiiBW0.004.3250.0051.450.000.13
South Dakota St.Sum13.913.5433.3342.53-4.64-0.53
Santa ClaraWCC6.251.9937.5033.46-1.56-0.66
CaliforniaP127.031.9683.3360.924.690.43
PacificWCC6.251.9350.0047.730.00-0.09
NevadaMWC0.451.9177.7871.580.250.82
Saint Mary'sWCC0.001.87100.0089.150.001.46
MilwaukeeHorz7.551.8116.6730.30-5.03-0.71
East Tennessee St.SC7.481.8180.0079.134.491.06
ArizonaP120.351.8175.0067.640.170.64
New Mexico St.WAC0.001.7875.0070.320.000.72
Utah St.MWC6.251.7833.3348.21-2.08-0.06
AkronMAC0.001.7271.4369.010.000.66
PortlandWCC0.000.3750.0054.070.000.03
UCLAP120.450.36100.0086.690.450.27
San DiegoWCC0.000.3337.5031.23-0.00-0.13
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.3142.8655.09-0.000.03
WashingtonP120.000.3057.1452.370.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.2942.8633.23-0.00-0.10
New MexicoMWC0.000.2762.5058.450.000.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2733.3346.38-0.00-0.02
UNLVMWC0.000.2562.5043.800.00-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.2457.1448.500.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.2485.7153.560.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.23100.0091.920.000.19
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.2266.6757.300.000.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.2242.8658.58-0.000.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.2242.8660.54-0.000.05
StanfordP120.000.2166.6758.060.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.2162.5040.460.00-0.04
WyomingMWC1.670.2166.6754.050.560.02
BYUWCC0.450.2162.5066.900.110.07
SeattleWAC0.000.1916.6739.49-0.00-0.04
DenverSum0.000.1942.8645.01-0.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.1842.8656.04-0.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1871.4360.540.000.04
IdahoBSky0.780.1850.0052.760.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1857.1458.940.000.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1866.6740.030.00-0.04
Oregon St.P120.000.1725.0022.93-0.00-0.09
PrincetonIvy0.000.1625.0063.27-0.000.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1642.8645.56-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.1575.0059.790.000.03
USCP120.000.15100.0076.680.000.08
Western IllinoisSum0.000.150.0016.68-0.00-0.10
San Diego St.MWC0.450.1560.0069.120.090.06
San Jose St.MWC0.350.1450.0041.490.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.1485.7177.150.000.08
North CarolinaACC0.000.1287.5081.960.000.08
UMKCWAC0.780.1262.5052.330.200.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.350.1216.6739.20-0.23-0.03
IonaMAAC0.000.1257.1464.030.000.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1242.8645.44-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.120.0019.67-0.00-0.07
Fort WayneSum0.000.1271.4370.210.000.05
IUPUISum0.000.1237.5051.64-0.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.120.0022.31-0.00-0.07
South DakotaSum0.000.1250.0046.020.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1250.0056.740.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1275.0086.710.000.09
Washington St.P120.000.1142.8628.98-0.00-0.05
MontanaBSky0.450.1025.0048.10-0.22-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.1071.4354.560.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.450.0912.5029.15-0.33-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0966.6766.180.000.03
SamfordSC0.000.0962.5056.520.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0975.0061.490.000.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0916.6749.65-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0942.8647.76-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.350.0912.5023.75-0.26-0.05
OhioMAC0.000.0983.3371.480.000.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.450.090.0022.01-0.45-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.350.0985.7170.060.250.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.0933.3352.21-0.000.00
DetroitHorz0.520.090.0021.22-0.52-0.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0942.8638.17-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.450.0942.8651.95-0.060.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0985.7174.990.000.04
ColoradoP120.000.0975.0062.620.000.02
OregonP120.000.0975.0072.250.000.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.070.0023.69-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0712.5037.99-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0716.6730.34-0.00-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0760.0067.760.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0750.0041.990.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0750.0043.390.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0742.8636.19-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0612.5033.65-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0620.0022.75-0.00-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0046.410.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0614.2938.26-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0640.0043.41-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0666.6766.860.000.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0024.64-0.00-0.03
St. John'sBE0.000.0637.5037.03-0.00-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0622.2221.23-0.00-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.000.0620.0035.47-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0671.4359.470.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0625.0029.54-0.00-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0628.5741.52-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0671.4373.040.000.03
DaytonA100.000.0671.4373.490.000.03
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3356.24-0.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0657.1454.360.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0642.8630.92-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0061.240.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0633.3352.84-0.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0650.0030.350.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0671.4356.260.000.01
VMISC0.000.060.0016.78-0.00-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6736.03-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.060.0034.81-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0628.5723.12-0.00-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.0650.0043.560.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0628.5731.44-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0657.1471.940.000.03
KansasB120.000.0687.5075.860.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.0687.5075.590.000.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0657.1453.990.000.00
TexasB120.000.0657.1438.680.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0662.5051.790.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.350.0637.5033.74-0.09-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0314.2932.19-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.34-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.450.0342.8650.11-0.060.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0340.0041.93-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.450.0350.0049.780.00-0.00
PurdueB100.450.0375.0075.340.220.02
Texas TechB120.450.0387.5062.040.330.01
AmericanPat0.000.0314.2931.35-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0342.8647.11-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0371.4356.250.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.13-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.630.000.02
FordhamA100.520.0350.0041.310.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0342.8643.60-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0371.4354.860.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0375.0048.030.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6738.58-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0314.2931.28-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0328.5734.28-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.64-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.12-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0340.0041.12-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0337.5047.91-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.0350.0059.920.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.520.0383.3377.100.350.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0362.5067.390.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0337.5035.09-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.450.030.0034.27-0.45-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0350.0064.350.000.01
DePaulBE0.450.0366.6735.430.15-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.450.0357.1459.280.060.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0325.0030.23-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.450.0350.0071.020.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4358.920.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0371.4358.600.000.00
MemphisAmer0.450.0375.0055.500.220.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.380.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.75-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0048.810.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.450.0342.8650.12-0.060.00
VanderbiltSEC0.350.0350.0046.240.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.0387.5078.510.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0342.8627.96-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0074.440.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0355.5658.610.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0357.1442.530.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0350.0066.300.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0342.8653.19-0.000.00