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Through games of Feb 13, 2016.


UC Irvine

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:75.7
Current RPI:74
Expected SOS:149
Current SOS:142
Current Record:17-7
Expected Record:21-9
Current Conf Record:8-2
Expected Conf Record:12-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-1
Current OOC Record:9-5
Expected OOC Record:9-5
Expected OOC RPI:53
Expected OOC SOS:72



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-753.89.10%
22-865.527.97%
21-976.134.09%
20-1087.520.82%
19-11100.96.61%
18-12115.61.33%
17-13127.70.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Irvine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Loyola Marymount (232.2)WCCH77-53W100%0.0
11-18UCF (202.9)AmerA60-61W100%0.0
11-23Santa Clara (265.3)WCCH79-61W100%0.0
11-26Boise St. (94.6)MWCN71-64L0%0.0
11-27Boston College (233.2)ACCN67-80W100%0.0
11-29Evansville (92.5)MVCN75-56L0%0.0
12-4Pacific (258.7)WCCA67-70W100%0.0
12-6Saint Mary's (57.6)WCCA70-60L0%0.0
12-12Utah St. (152.6)MWCA63-73W100%0.0
12-15Oregon (7.9)P12A78-63L0%0.0
12-21Sam Houston St. (179.7)SlndN63-53W100%0.0
12-22Norfolk St. (205.2)MEACN62-80W100%0.0
12-29Kansas (2.4)B12A78-53L0%0.0
1-2New Mexico St. (119.1)WACH54-52W100%0.0
1-7UC Davis (270.5)BWH76-55W100%0.0
1-9UC Riverside (268.7)BWH84-68W100%0.0
1-14Long Beach St. (94.1)BWA54-58W100%0.0
1-16UC Santa Barbara (117.7)BWA52-61W100%0.0
1-20Cal St. Fullerton (292.3)BWH72-59W100%0.0
1-27Cal St. Northridge (268.9)BWA63-73W100%0.0
1-30UC Santa Barbara (117.7)BWH60-76L0%0.0
2-3Cal Poly (211.7)BWA72-78W100%0.0
2-11Hawaii (81.1)BWA74-52L0%0.0
2-13Cal St. Northridge (268.9)BWH93-84W100%0.0
2-17Cal St. Fullerton (292.3)BWA0-073%6.6
2-20Hawaii (81.1)BWH0-048%-0.5
2-24Long Beach St. (94.1)BWH0-062%3.2
2-27UC Davis (270.5)BWA0-073%6.5
3-3Cal Poly (211.7)BWH0-079%8.9
3-5UC Riverside (268.7)BWA0-071%6.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Irvine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Irvine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Irvine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC IrvineBW26.2726.3774.5672.9412.9012.10
Cal St. FullertonBW2.814.2633.3331.74-0.94-1.56
UC RiversideBW2.724.2445.8341.72-0.23-0.70
Long Beach St.BW2.824.2352.1755.520.120.47
UC DavisBW2.724.2338.1035.80-0.65-1.20
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.664.2033.3332.15-1.55-1.50
Cal PolyBW2.684.2033.3338.17-0.89-0.99
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.594.1745.0051.82-0.460.15
HawaiiBW2.594.1785.0084.281.822.86
Loyola MarymountWCC2.582.1241.6742.87-0.43-0.30
Saint Mary'sWCC2.401.9781.8281.021.531.22
Santa ClaraWCC2.341.9633.3332.29-0.78-0.69
PacificWCC2.351.9123.8125.72-1.23-0.93
Boise St.MWC2.311.8560.8760.060.500.37
OregonP122.171.7575.0073.921.090.84
EvansvilleMVC2.171.7270.8372.030.900.76
New Mexico St.WAC2.131.7269.5771.320.830.74
Utah St.MWC2.171.7250.0051.130.000.04
Boston CollegeACC2.121.7030.4327.50-0.83-0.76
Norfolk St.MEAC2.121.6947.8353.01-0.090.10
KansasB122.081.6782.6180.781.361.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd2.081.6750.0052.510.000.08
UCFAmer2.081.6750.0045.210.00-0.16
San DiegoWCC0.540.4329.1727.08-0.22-0.20
San FranciscoWCC0.440.4254.1750.260.040.00
PortlandWCC0.400.4038.4638.09-0.09-0.09
PepperdineWCC0.400.3660.0062.090.080.09
BYUWCC0.440.3369.2371.010.170.14
NevadaMWC0.280.3059.0956.770.050.04
UCLAP120.270.2654.1753.010.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.260.2476.0076.260.130.13
SeattleWAC0.230.2445.4544.05-0.02-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.220.2460.8760.120.050.05
USCP120.270.2475.0071.170.140.10
Oregon St.P120.270.2360.8757.820.060.04
UNLVMWC0.220.2354.1755.730.020.03
Colorado St.MWC0.220.2152.1751.940.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.230.2070.8370.070.100.08
ArizonaP120.260.2080.0078.720.160.12
Utah ValleyWAC0.230.1831.8234.35-0.08-0.06
Air ForceMWC0.180.1841.6737.79-0.03-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.230.1860.0060.920.050.04
CaliforniaP120.270.1868.0065.640.100.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.180.1718.1825.29-0.11-0.09
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1748.0043.71-0.01-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.140.1638.1043.56-0.03-0.02
WashingtonP120.140.1560.0059.040.030.03
Texas TechB120.140.1562.5058.360.040.02
San Jose St.MWC0.130.1522.7322.58-0.07-0.08
Houston BaptistSlnd0.180.1547.6248.51-0.01-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.130.1568.1868.210.050.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1272.7371.580.040.05
Portland St.BSky0.140.1228.5735.58-0.06-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1219.2321.27-0.08-0.07
HowardMEAC0.090.1234.7836.55-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.180.1256.0055.750.020.01
WyomingMWC0.180.1241.6741.64-0.03-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.1235.0034.88-0.03-0.04
LamarSlnd0.090.1230.0029.25-0.04-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.090.1257.6958.590.010.02
OklahomaB120.140.1283.3380.440.090.07
DukeACC0.140.1276.0073.090.070.05
BaylorB120.130.1170.8365.330.050.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.0917.3920.09-0.06-0.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.0958.3358.450.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0913.6414.63-0.07-0.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0923.0825.64-0.05-0.04
Idaho St.BSky0.140.0950.0049.580.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0913.6414.93-0.07-0.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.0930.4334.38-0.05-0.03
Arizona St.P120.140.0956.0053.620.020.01
Missouri St.MVC0.130.0940.0039.49-0.03-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0974.0773.100.040.04
StanfordP120.130.0950.0046.650.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.090.0880.0077.220.050.05
BradleyMVC0.090.0812.0012.00-0.06-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.040.0813.0414.58-0.03-0.06
DenverSum0.080.0850.0048.570.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.130.0848.0047.35-0.01-0.00
OhioMAC0.090.0865.2264.670.030.02
Michigan St.B100.130.0880.0081.510.080.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0826.0925.94-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.050.0637.5034.54-0.01-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0638.4640.70-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0623.8129.48-0.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0659.0958.530.010.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0658.3356.810.010.01
IPFWSum0.050.0672.0069.300.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.050.0645.8345.02-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0673.6876.550.020.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0672.0072.950.020.03
UMBCAE0.050.0623.0825.88-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.050.0612.5012.74-0.04-0.05
SMUAmer0.090.0687.5084.290.070.04
AkronMAC0.090.0679.1779.050.060.03
Chicago St.WAC0.090.064.177.54-0.08-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0683.3382.060.060.04
IonaMAAC0.090.0658.3358.480.020.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0660.0059.940.020.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0661.9060.140.020.01
South DakotaSum0.090.0642.3143.13-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0675.0075.150.050.03
UMKCWAC0.040.0631.8233.29-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.090.0652.0054.840.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.090.0656.0057.240.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0612.5014.81-0.06-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0673.0871.580.040.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0672.0070.630.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0618.1823.04-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0640.0039.42-0.02-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.040.0659.0961.340.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0672.0068.870.020.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0656.0056.660.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.069.0911.96-0.07-0.04
Seton HallBE0.040.0670.8368.070.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.090.0620.0019.75-0.05-0.03
TempleAmer0.050.0665.2262.390.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0638.4637.32-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0664.0064.280.010.02
AlabamaSEC0.090.0662.5059.270.020.01
MontanaBSky0.090.0661.9062.900.020.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0640.9141.22-0.02-0.01
ColoradoP120.080.0672.0066.650.040.02
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0656.0054.070.010.00
Iowa St.B120.040.0672.0069.230.020.02
Kansas St.B120.040.0656.0054.680.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.040.0645.8343.81-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.040.0630.4332.18-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.090.0644.0039.06-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.040.0664.0061.080.010.01
UtahP120.080.0670.8368.550.030.02
West VirginiaB120.090.0680.0078.490.050.03
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0670.8373.510.030.03
DrakeMVC0.040.0620.0022.69-0.02-0.03
HarvardIvy0.090.0536.3638.01-0.02-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.090.0573.0870.170.040.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0560.0059.840.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.090.0583.3378.350.060.03
Notre DameACC0.090.0572.0070.180.040.02
SyracuseACC0.040.0568.0064.130.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0356.5256.100.010.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0354.1756.890.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0355.5652.580.010.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0350.0051.400.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0347.8345.05-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0321.0529.38-0.03-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0326.3232.38-0.02-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0330.4331.63-0.02-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0322.2228.35-0.03-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0318.1825.82-0.03-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0368.1870.090.020.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.040.0323.0823.73-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.040.0344.0043.30-0.01-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.040.0329.6330.87-0.02-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0366.6764.740.010.01
DavidsonA100.050.0359.0955.710.010.00
DePaulBE0.040.0333.3333.86-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0347.8346.26-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.040.0323.8124.32-0.02-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0325.0026.16-0.02-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0372.0070.430.020.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0313.6413.35-0.03-0.02
LipscombASun0.040.0330.7732.74-0.02-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0328.0031.38-0.02-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0343.4842.31-0.01-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0333.3331.74-0.02-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.040.0358.3360.350.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.0332.0033.77-0.02-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.040.0328.5735.02-0.02-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.040.0330.4332.19-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.040.0356.0059.610.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.040.0375.0077.280.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0383.3378.690.030.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0350.0051.120.000.00
StetsonASun0.050.0321.7425.66-0.03-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0326.0928.44-0.02-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.0335.0039.98-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0331.8236.20-0.02-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.040.0348.0050.99-0.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.040.0339.1338.12-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.040.0365.3865.160.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.040.0341.6739.59-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.040.0347.8352.95-0.000.00
KentuckySEC0.040.0376.0074.450.020.01
Loyola MDPat0.040.0332.0033.46-0.02-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.040.0350.0051.470.000.00
NavyPat0.040.0365.3865.340.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.040.0379.1779.630.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0360.0060.860.010.01
Washington St.P120.000.0334.7831.61-0.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.040.0312.0012.46-0.03-0.02
DelawareCAA0.040.0324.0024.18-0.02-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.040.0366.6763.280.010.01
FordhamA100.040.0350.0050.420.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0352.0050.510.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.040.0376.0073.910.020.01
MaineAE0.040.0332.0031.16-0.02-0.01
Miami FLACC0.040.0382.6177.560.030.01
New HampshireAE0.040.0359.0956.880.010.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0352.0049.600.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.040.0348.0045.86-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.040.0372.7367.670.020.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.040.0340.0043.52-0.01-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.040.0337.5037.69-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0352.0048.970.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0340.0039.15-0.00-0.01