UC Irvine

Conference:	BW
Expected RPI:	259.3
Current RPI:	273
Expected SOS:	212
Current SOS:	257
Current Record:	7-13
Expected Record:	10-17
Current Conf Record:	5-5
Expected Conf Record:	7-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.96%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-5
Current OOC Record:	2-8
Expected OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC RPI:	278
Expected OOC SOS:	118

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-13	175.0	0.01%
13-14	203.4	0.23%
12-15	218.1	3.27%
11-16	236.1	15.39%
10-17	253.0	31.73%
9-18	268.6	32.18%
8-19	281.6	14.95%
7-20	291.7	2.23%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Irvine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	California (42.1)	P12	A	77-56	L	0%	0.0
11-14	San Jose St. (280.7)	WAC	A	51-50	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Weber St. (85.4)	BSky	H	72-80	L	0%	0.0
11-24	Southern Mississippi (15.4)	CUSA	N	78-67	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Central Michigan (271.4)	MAC	N	82-72	L	0%	0.0
12-3	San Diego (211.6)	WCC	H	99-79	W	100%	0.0
12-13	Wyoming (56.6)	MWC	A	58-48	L	0%	0.0
12-15	Louisiana St. (86.2)	SEC	A	66-59	L	0%	0.0
12-20	UCLA (109.3)	P12	A	89-60	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Cal St. Northridge (309.3)	BW	A	62-71	W	100%	0.0
1-2	Long Beach St. (38.6)	BW	H	60-74	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Pacific (264.2)	BW	A	69-73	W	100%	0.0
1-7	UC Davis (342.3)	BW	A	55-70	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Cal Poly (194.2)	BW	H	50-66	L	0%	0.0
1-14	UC Santa Barbara (147.1)	BW	A	74-56	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Cal St. Fullerton (167.6)	BW	H	84-92	L	0%	0.0
1-24	Seattle (290.1)	ind	H	78-67	W	100%	0.0
1-28	UC Riverside (255.7)	BW	H	65-57	W	100%	0.0
2-2	UC Davis (342.3)	BW	H	68-61	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Pacific (264.2)	BW	H	64-72	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Cal St. Fullerton (167.6)	BW	A	0-0		20%	-9.1
2-11	Cal Poly (194.2)	BW	A	0-0		15%	-11.2
2-15	UC Santa Barbara (147.1)	BW	H	0-0		34%	-4.4
2-18	Eastern Washington (209.8)	BSky	H	0-0		50%	-0.1
2-25	Cal St. Northridge (309.3)	BW	H	0-0		80%	9.3
2-29	Long Beach St. (38.6)	BW	A	0-0		5%	-18.2
3-3	UC Riverside (255.7)	BW	A	0-0		47%	-0.7

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Irvine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UC Irvine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UC Irvine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UC Irvine	BW	26.45	26.45	34.38	34.99	-8.27	-7.94
UC Davis	BW	5.67	4.80	0.00	5.71	-5.67	-4.25
Cal Poly	BW	3.30	4.72	47.62	54.12	-0.16	0.39
UC Santa Barbara	BW	3.29	4.70	52.94	55.86	0.19	0.55
UC Riverside	BW	3.36	4.69	45.00	40.69	-0.34	-0.87
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	3.18	4.68	63.16	64.86	0.84	1.39
Long Beach St.	BW	3.18	4.66	70.00	71.59	1.27	2.01
Pacific	BW	5.55	4.65	33.33	36.56	-1.85	-1.25
Cal St. Northridge	BW	3.18	4.65	22.22	23.51	-1.77	-2.46
San Jose St.	WAC	2.98	2.21	23.81	24.35	-1.56	-1.14
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.37	2.12	40.91	44.07	-0.07	-0.25
California	P12	2.75	2.06	73.91	73.78	1.31	0.98
UCLA	P12	2.67	2.01	52.38	55.29	0.13	0.21
Seattle	ind	2.56	1.98	23.53	34.43	-1.35	-0.62
Weber St.	BSky	2.61	1.98	78.95	75.78	1.51	1.02
San Diego	WCC	2.57	1.93	35.00	35.12	-0.77	-0.57
Central Michigan	MAC	2.50	1.85	25.00	31.76	-1.25	-0.68
Louisiana St.	SEC	2.50	1.85	57.14	55.79	0.36	0.21
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	2.50	1.85	85.00	81.59	1.75	1.17
Wyoming	MWC	2.50	1.85	75.00	69.62	1.25	0.73
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.68	0.61	47.83	47.88	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.48	0.40	85.71	78.11	0.34	0.23
Hawaii	WAC	0.55	0.37	57.14	53.02	0.08	0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.25	0.34	45.00	41.71	-0.02	-0.06
Stanford	P12	0.48	0.33	69.57	68.33	0.19	0.12
Southern California	P12	0.29	0.32	25.00	25.08	-0.15	-0.16
Utah St.	WAC	0.38	0.32	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.32	0.32	42.86	45.93	-0.05	-0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.44	0.31	28.57	26.31	-0.19	-0.15
Fresno St.	WAC	0.24	0.31	39.13	44.46	-0.05	-0.03
Idaho	WAC	0.37	0.30	50.00	51.46	0.00	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.30	0.30	30.00	33.22	-0.12	-0.10
Washington	P12	0.31	0.28	69.57	66.59	0.12	0.09
Idaho St.	BSky	0.24	0.27	31.82	32.98	-0.09	-0.09
Pepperdine	WCC	0.24	0.24	31.82	33.75	-0.09	-0.08
Montana	BSky	0.18	0.24	71.43	73.99	0.08	0.11
Boise St.	MWC	0.24	0.23	42.86	41.08	-0.03	-0.04
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.12	0.23	30.00	31.40	-0.05	-0.09
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.24	0.23	82.61	81.43	0.16	0.15
Southern Utah	Sum	0.30	0.23	45.45	44.27	-0.03	-0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.31	0.21	56.52	53.76	0.04	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.20	13.64	16.23	-0.05	-0.14
St. Mary's	WCC	0.24	0.20	90.91	87.78	0.20	0.15
Nevada	WAC	0.24	0.20	80.95	76.42	0.15	0.10
Utah	P12	0.23	0.19	18.18	15.00	-0.15	-0.14
Washington St.	P12	0.17	0.19	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.25	0.18	75.00	76.02	0.13	0.09
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.24	0.16	69.57	69.00	0.09	0.06
Utah Valley	GWC	0.26	0.14	54.55	57.71	0.02	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.13	0.14	21.74	21.75	-0.07	-0.08
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.18	0.13	42.86	43.52	-0.03	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.12	0.13	54.17	47.95	0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.17	0.12	66.67	62.69	0.06	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.11	0.12	69.57	64.49	0.04	0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.17	0.12	30.43	31.40	-0.07	-0.05
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.10	81.82	81.50	0.04	0.06
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.12	0.10	59.09	57.69	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.12	0.10	25.00	23.73	-0.06	-0.05
Colorado St.	MWC	0.12	0.10	66.67	60.84	0.04	0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.10	43.48	43.27	-0.01	-0.01
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.12	0.10	57.14	60.72	0.02	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.18	0.10	52.38	52.88	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.12	0.10	78.26	78.42	0.07	0.06
Denver	SB	0.17	0.09	70.83	72.24	0.07	0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.12	0.09	63.64	56.68	0.03	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.11	0.09	66.67	68.55	0.04	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.11	0.09	63.64	63.17	0.03	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.14	0.08	37.50	38.36	-0.03	-0.02
Longwood	ind	0.00	0.08	28.57	25.79	-0.00	-0.04
Drake	MVC	0.07	0.07	52.17	50.01	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.13	0.07	81.82	76.80	0.08	0.04
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.07	25.00	28.48	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.07	54.17	54.76	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.07	26.32	29.64	-0.03	-0.03
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.07	82.61	80.50	0.04	0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.12	0.07	21.05	24.33	-0.07	-0.03
Tulane	CUSA	0.12	0.07	61.90	58.61	0.03	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.07	47.37	42.13	-0.00	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.06	0.07	30.43	26.42	-0.02	-0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.00	0.07	84.00	82.62	0.00	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.07	73.91	68.41	0.03	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.06	0.07	79.17	74.20	0.03	0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.07	81.82	81.02	0.04	0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.07	86.96	83.30	0.04	0.04
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.07	62.50	59.52	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.07	26.32	28.82	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Christian	MWC	0.06	0.07	57.14	49.57	0.01	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.06	0.07	45.83	45.52	-0.00	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.06	0.07	65.22	63.69	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.07	52.38	53.29	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	55.00	57.42	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.12	0.06	8.33	10.84	-0.10	-0.05
Central Florida	CUSA	0.06	0.06	71.43	66.55	0.03	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	47.83	42.19	-0.00	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.12	0.06	44.44	41.65	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	59.09	59.78	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.12	0.06	69.57	71.58	0.05	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	52.17	58.49	0.00	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	23.81	33.67	-0.03	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	5.26	7.29	-0.05	-0.05
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	38.10	40.84	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	40.91	39.81	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	40.91	42.97	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.06	47.62	44.58	-0.00	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.11	0.06	44.44	45.20	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.06	0.06	69.57	70.16	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.06	69.57	65.18	0.04	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.26	72.28	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.06	45.45	41.17	-0.00	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.07	0.04	90.48	87.91	0.06	0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.04	34.78	38.43	-0.02	-0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.00	0.04	76.19	75.98	0.00	0.02
Maine	AE	0.06	0.03	47.62	48.01	-0.00	-0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.03	44.44	48.16	-0.01	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.03	24.00	24.86	-0.03	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.03	19.05	19.39	-0.04	-0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.03	35.00	39.40	-0.02	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.03	68.18	67.98	0.02	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.03	47.62	48.81	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.00	0.03	68.42	66.51	0.00	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.06	0.03	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	42.11	49.86	-0.01	-0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.03	14.29	17.12	-0.04	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.03	28.57	29.05	-0.03	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.03	70.83	66.50	0.02	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.03	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.00	0.03	30.00	34.18	-0.00	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.03	70.83	62.75	0.02	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	100.00	94.58	0.06	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.03	50.00	44.98	0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.03	81.82	77.18	0.04	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.00	0.03	47.62	46.51	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.03	54.55	48.54	0.01	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.00	0.03	38.10	37.80	-0.00	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.06	0.03	77.27	75.07	0.03	0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	56.52	53.06	0.01	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.00	0.03	17.39	20.75	-0.00	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.00	0.03	60.87	59.05	0.00	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.03	41.67	40.47	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.06	0.03	68.42	68.62	0.02	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.03	79.17	76.62	0.03	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.03	39.13	42.16	-0.01	-0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.03	14.29	14.31	-0.04	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.03	96.00	93.53	0.05	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.03	80.00	76.67	0.03	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.03	69.57	66.33	0.02	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.06	0.03	83.33	84.76	0.04	0.02
North Texas	SB	0.06	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.06	0.03	63.64	57.79	0.02	0.00
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.06	0.03	54.55	56.80	0.01	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.03	50.00	48.48	0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.06	0.03	50.00	46.87	0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.00	0.03	40.91	39.60	-0.00	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.00	0.03	43.48	40.24	-0.00	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.00	0.03	45.45	44.56	-0.00	-0.00
Texas	B12	0.06	0.03	62.50	62.20	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.00	0.03	69.57	65.88	0.00	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.06	0.03	34.78	34.46	-0.02	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.05	-0.02	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	18.18	23.34	-0.03	-0.02
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.03	91.67	87.92	0.04	0.02