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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


UC Irvine

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:175.4
Current RPI:180
Expected SOS:113
Current SOS:83
Current Record:6-14
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:3-3
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC RPI:165
Expected OOC SOS:13



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14102.40.43%
15-15121.03.17%
14-16139.611.16%
13-17157.920.95%
12-18175.926.79%
11-19192.422.16%
10-20208.711.03%
9-21222.73.44%
8-22238.60.78%
7-23246.80.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Irvine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10South Dakota St. (65.8)SumA65-54L0%0.0
11-12Denver (272.4)SumA69-83W100%0.0
11-17Kansas St. (59.0)B12A71-49L0%0.0
11-19Arizona St. (31.6)P12A99-78L0%0.0
11-23Rider (104.8)MAACN82-90L0%0.0
11-24Northern Arizona (316.2)BSkyN77-71W100%0.0
11-26UCLA (63.3)P12A87-63L0%0.0
12-2Nevada (14.5)MWCH65-76L0%0.0
12-6Utah St. (167.8)MWCA62-59L0%0.0
12-9UT Rio Grande Valley (227.1)WACA73-59L0%0.0
12-16Saint Mary's (34.7)WCCA73-66L0%0.0
12-19Montana (98.2)BSkyA86-68L0%0.0
12-21Idaho (146.3)BSkyN59-67W100%0.0
12-28New Mexico St. (43.2)WACH60-65L0%0.0
1-4UC Davis (106.2)BWA64-53L0%0.0
1-6Long Beach St. (191.7)BWH86-73W100%0.0
1-11Cal St. Fullerton (160.5)BWH64-67L0%0.0
1-13Cal St. Northridge (335.1)BWA54-71W100%0.0
1-18Cal Poly (282.2)BWH80-73W100%0.0
1-20UC Santa Barbara (107.8)BWA70-58L0%0.0
1-24UC Riverside (302.5)BWH0-082%10.3
1-31Long Beach St. (191.7)BWA0-048%-0.6
2-3Cal St. Fullerton (160.5)BWA0-044%-1.7
2-7Cal St. Northridge (335.1)BWH0-088%13.3
2-10UC Riverside (302.5)BWA0-064%3.9
2-15Hawaii (160.0)BWH0-063%3.5
2-17Cal Poly (282.2)BWA0-064%3.9
2-22UC Santa Barbara (107.8)BWH0-052%0.4
2-24Hawaii (160.0)BWA0-040%-2.9
3-3UC Davis (106.2)BWH0-055%1.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Irvine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Irvine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Irvine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC IrvineBW26.3626.3634.8843.92-7.97-3.21
Cal PolyBW2.804.2025.0028.98-1.40-1.77
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2.714.2018.7520.33-1.69-2.49
UC RiversideBW0.434.2017.6523.59-0.28-2.22
UC Santa BarbaraBW2.734.2068.7569.281.021.62
UC DavisBW2.704.2056.2561.670.340.98
HawaiiBW0.424.1968.7565.230.161.28
Cal St. FullertonBW2.844.1953.3355.050.190.42
Long Beach St.BW2.734.1842.1144.57-0.43-0.45
MontanaBSky2.721.9368.7572.161.020.86
NevadaMWC2.711.8785.0081.541.901.18
Northern ArizonaBSky2.781.8411.7615.84-2.12-1.26
IdahoBSky2.701.8468.7569.331.010.71
Saint Mary'sWCC2.651.7690.0088.602.121.36
New Mexico St.WAC2.561.7582.3583.641.661.18
Arizona St.P122.631.7577.7875.331.460.89
South Dakota St.Sum2.571.7370.5971.931.060.76
DenverSum2.571.7335.2937.93-0.76-0.42
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.501.7342.1143.06-0.39-0.24
Kansas St.B122.641.7273.6864.171.250.49
Utah St.MWC2.561.7242.1143.59-0.40-0.22
UCLAP122.501.6963.1660.740.660.36
RiderMAAC2.501.6763.1664.140.660.47
Utah ValleyWAC0.360.4366.6766.030.120.14
Sacramento St.BSky0.510.4216.6724.44-0.34-0.21
CaliforniaP120.410.3836.8431.11-0.11-0.14
Northern ColoradoBSky0.360.3058.8257.130.060.04
StanfordP120.410.2955.0050.330.040.00
PepperdineWCC0.270.2910.5318.34-0.21-0.18
PacificWCC0.390.2945.0044.49-0.04-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.330.2866.6763.450.110.08
San FranciscoWCC0.330.2850.0048.730.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.350.2750.0047.650.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.280.2643.7540.91-0.04-0.05
North DakotaBSky0.220.2429.4134.78-0.09-0.07
USCP120.220.2471.4368.300.090.09
Loyola MarymountWCC0.210.2427.7829.10-0.09-0.10
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.410.2429.4133.20-0.17-0.08
Portland St.BSky0.210.2458.8263.210.040.06
Southern UtahBSky0.280.2337.5033.77-0.07-0.08
Oregon St.P120.250.2257.8950.860.040.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.220.2138.8946.05-0.05-0.02
SeattleWAC0.190.2157.8954.500.030.02
UtahP120.190.2063.1659.720.050.04
Washington St.P120.330.2047.3741.43-0.02-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.340.2033.3332.96-0.11-0.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.210.1925.0028.02-0.11-0.08
North Dakota St.Sum0.210.1944.4450.31-0.020.00
Oral RobertsSum0.270.1830.0032.54-0.11-0.06
South DakotaSum0.200.1873.6872.400.100.08
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.1870.0071.220.050.08
UMKCWAC0.190.1821.0524.76-0.11-0.09
ColoradoP120.270.1760.0053.720.050.01
Air ForceMWC0.130.1737.5031.78-0.03-0.06
San DiegoWCC0.270.1763.1657.530.070.03
WyomingMWC0.260.1761.1156.790.060.02
ArizonaP120.200.1780.0078.940.120.10
San Jose St.MWC0.250.1711.7612.80-0.19-0.12
Colorado St.MWC0.190.1745.0041.31-0.02-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.1525.0039.91-0.07-0.03
WashingtonP120.210.1470.0061.460.080.03
Weber St.BSky0.130.1456.2557.430.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.200.1445.0048.57-0.02-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.070.1352.6351.680.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.070.1342.8635.22-0.01-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.070.1252.9460.230.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.120.003.06-0.07-0.11
DavidsonA100.130.1258.8261.440.020.03
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1266.6755.900.050.01
PortlandWCC0.080.1227.7827.26-0.03-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.260.1125.0043.18-0.13-0.02
KansasB120.200.1184.2179.760.140.07
OregonP120.130.1165.0063.810.040.03
West VirginiaB120.130.1180.0076.040.080.06
Boise St.MWC0.120.1178.9576.980.070.06
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1158.8262.830.020.03
UNLVMWC0.060.1173.6865.250.030.03
Miami FLACC0.070.0977.7870.410.040.04
HarvardIvy0.140.0937.5046.70-0.03-0.01
PittsburghACC0.150.0940.0030.88-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.0950.0052.500.000.00
SMUAmer0.140.0970.0070.610.050.04
Texas A&MSEC0.140.0968.4263.970.050.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.140.0960.0062.010.030.02
MichiganB100.060.0976.1970.800.030.04
ValparaisoMVC0.060.0947.3748.77-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.0942.1143.50-0.02-0.01
RadfordBSth0.130.0957.8958.880.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.130.0868.4254.040.050.01
BYUWCC0.120.0880.9576.240.080.04
GonzagaWCC0.120.0880.9583.260.080.05
TCUB120.120.0875.0067.830.060.03
Texas TechB120.120.0878.9571.750.070.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0633.3339.890.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0610.5326.290.00-0.03
TroySB0.000.0638.8944.430.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.140.0633.3334.10-0.05-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.070.0642.1139.93-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0662.5058.710.020.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0666.6765.630.020.02
George MasonA100.070.0645.0041.29-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.070.0650.0054.900.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0633.3340.35-0.02-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.130.0611.1118.00-0.10-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.140.0650.0051.390.000.00
Penn St.B100.140.0661.9055.820.030.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.067.6923.24-0.11-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.130.0652.6343.040.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0661.9063.170.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0646.6747.00-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0638.8944.07-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0660.0064.130.010.02
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0650.0050.860.000.00
MaristMAAC0.060.0621.0521.99-0.04-0.03
Michigan St.B100.060.0685.7183.760.040.04
MissouriSEC0.060.0666.6763.150.020.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0627.7841.030.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.060.0663.6459.480.020.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0635.0031.82-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0642.1146.09-0.01-0.00
XavierBE0.130.0685.7180.060.090.03
George WashingtonA100.130.0545.0043.49-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.130.0536.8435.58-0.03-0.02
BaylorB120.060.0557.8953.280.010.00
Iowa St.B120.060.0557.8946.220.01-0.00
OklahomaB120.060.0577.7868.030.030.02
TexasB120.000.0565.0058.600.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0357.8966.270.010.01
NavyPat0.070.0360.0055.160.010.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0333.3335.21-0.02-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0315.7922.64-0.05-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.070.0372.2274.940.030.02
DrakeMVC0.070.0355.0048.980.01-0.00
IllinoisB100.070.0345.0043.62-0.01-0.00
IowaB100.070.0347.6243.94-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0352.6345.860.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0370.0068.290.030.01
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0378.9577.380.040.02
Georgia St.SB0.070.0366.6765.550.020.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0343.7549.11-0.01-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0352.9452.250.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0336.8444.03-0.02-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0333.3333.76-0.02-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0344.4446.66-0.01-0.00
RiceCUSA0.060.0311.1117.68-0.05-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.070.0335.0026.13-0.02-0.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0357.8950.210.010.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0345.0049.28-0.01-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0389.4785.550.050.02
CreightonBE0.060.0375.0070.720.030.01
DetroitHorz0.060.0321.0525.99-0.04-0.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0330.0030.97-0.03-0.01
HartfordAE0.060.0350.0045.930.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.060.0357.8959.500.010.01
KentuckySEC0.060.0373.6868.040.030.01
LongwoodBSth0.070.0316.6716.15-0.04-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.030.0010.26-0.06-0.02
New HampshireAE0.060.0333.3340.10-0.02-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0357.1453.040.010.00
NortheasternCAA0.060.0363.1663.210.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.060.0370.0060.470.030.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0357.1460.410.010.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0328.5729.930.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0326.3230.45-0.03-0.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0347.3742.16-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.060.0364.7164.560.020.01
WisconsinB100.060.0350.0046.270.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0321.0523.52-0.04-0.01
AmericanPat0.060.0325.0026.03-0.03-0.01
DaytonA100.060.0347.3750.94-0.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0352.9459.250.000.00
TulsaAmer0.060.0355.0053.330.010.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0352.6358.610.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0347.3746.09-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.060.0383.3381.450.040.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0355.0052.480.010.00