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Through games of Jan 17, 2017.


UC Irvine

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:142.4
Current RPI:133
Expected SOS:228
Current SOS:129
Current Record:9-9
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:4-0
Expected Conf Record:13-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-4
Current OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC RPI:140
Expected OOC SOS:40



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-992.41.47%
20-10104.97.69%
19-11119.218.13%
18-12134.425.39%
17-13149.822.85%
16-14166.515.08%
15-15184.56.58%
14-16201.42.27%
13-17218.80.45%
12-18235.20.06%
11-19257.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Irvine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Utah St. (163.4)MWCH56-72L0%0.0
11-14South Dakota St. (265.0)SumH73-58W100%0.0
11-16California (52.7)P12A75-65L0%0.0
11-19Pacific (214.0)WCCH72-65W100%0.0
11-25South Dakota St. (265.0)SumA52-63W100%0.0
11-26Milwaukee (272.2)HorzN37-54L0%0.0
11-27East Tennessee St. (75.9)SCN72-66L0%0.0
11-30Santa Clara (161.8)WCCA55-58W100%0.0
12-6Arizona (11.6)P12A79-57L0%0.0
12-11Saint Mary's (19.7)WCCA84-53L0%0.0
12-14Nevada (35.7)MWCA76-69L0%0.0
12-19New Mexico St. (63.5)WACA85-79L0%0.0
12-21Akron (51.4)MACN80-88L0%0.0
12-22UTEP (325.6)CUSAA57-62W100%0.0
1-4Long Beach St. (226.6)BWH82-67W100%0.0
1-7Hawaii (309.1)BWH84-56W100%0.0
1-12UC Santa Barbara (289.6)BWA62-66W100%0.0
1-14Cal St. Fullerton (311.0)BWH87-67W100%0.0
1-18Cal Poly (309.0)BWA0-070%5.9
1-21Cal St. Northridge (252.5)BWA0-058%2.3
1-26Cal Poly (309.0)BWH0-086%12.1
1-28UC Davis (211.2)BWA0-053%0.9
2-4Long Beach St. (226.6)BWA0-056%1.8
2-8UC Santa Barbara (289.6)BWH0-086%11.8
2-11Hawaii (309.1)BWA0-065%4.2
2-18UC Riverside (312.8)BWH0-088%12.9
2-22Cal St. Fullerton (311.0)BWA0-069%5.6
2-25Cal St. Northridge (252.5)BWH0-078%8.5
3-1UC Riverside (312.8)BWA0-072%6.7
3-4UC Davis (211.2)BWH0-074%7.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Irvine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Irvine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Irvine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC IrvineBW26.6426.4253.7562.912.006.82
UC DavisBW0.254.2452.9456.220.010.53
Long Beach St.BW2.954.2223.5337.06-1.56-1.09
Cal PolyBW0.274.2020.0030.07-0.16-1.68
Cal St. FullertonBW2.954.2042.8642.99-0.42-0.59
UC Santa BarbaraBW2.854.2015.3829.34-1.98-1.74
UC RiversideBW0.154.2015.3828.11-0.11-1.84
HawaiiBW2.954.1842.8646.14-0.42-0.32
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.174.1740.0047.20-0.03-0.23
South Dakota St.Sum5.803.4237.5036.41-1.45-0.93
Santa ClaraWCC2.851.9352.9448.310.17-0.07
CaliforniaP123.011.8970.5964.941.240.57
PacificWCC2.951.8741.1836.13-0.52-0.52
NevadaMWC3.041.8482.3577.901.961.03
Saint Mary'sWCC2.851.8087.5087.052.141.34
New Mexico St.WAC3.031.7887.5083.872.271.21
MilwaukeeHorz3.021.7517.6524.69-1.95-0.89
East Tennessee St.SC3.011.7573.3376.001.400.91
ArizonaP122.931.7588.2482.592.241.14
UTEPCUSA2.941.7320.0024.80-1.76-0.87
Utah St.MWC2.781.7240.0041.56-0.56-0.29
AkronMAC2.781.6781.2574.911.740.83
PortlandWCC0.330.3650.0042.260.00-0.06
UCLAP120.330.3594.7489.340.300.28
San DiegoWCC0.510.3247.0640.40-0.03-0.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.440.3050.0051.390.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.490.2957.8958.050.080.05
WashingtonP120.320.2947.0642.26-0.02-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.230.2823.5321.77-0.12-0.16
Loyola MarymountWCC0.240.2650.0047.940.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.180.2447.3743.64-0.01-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.340.2361.1158.720.070.04
Air ForceMWC0.250.2343.7537.62-0.03-0.06
GonzagaWCC0.320.22100.0096.930.320.21
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.2140.0044.61-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.160.2161.1163.000.040.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.360.2153.3361.460.020.05
UtahP120.170.2166.6764.760.060.06
StanfordP120.160.2052.9447.220.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.240.2050.0044.340.00-0.02
WyomingMWC0.470.2062.5055.530.120.02
BYUWCC0.320.2068.4268.140.120.07
SeattleWAC0.100.1840.0037.09-0.02-0.05
DenverSum0.000.1861.1157.840.000.03
Boise St.MWC0.090.1862.5063.040.020.05
Colorado St.MWC0.160.1756.2553.600.020.01
IdahoBSky0.310.1735.7144.05-0.09-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.150.1762.5060.110.040.03
Fresno St.MWC0.150.1756.2551.920.020.01
Oregon St.P120.150.1617.6514.96-0.10-0.12
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1560.0053.490.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.170.1560.0066.160.030.05
USCP120.180.1484.2172.830.120.07
Western IllinoisSum0.230.1426.6727.58-0.11-0.06
San Diego St.MWC0.240.1458.8264.270.040.04
San Jose St.MWC0.240.1450.0041.050.00-0.03
OaklandHorz0.080.1470.5972.950.030.06
UMKCWAC0.240.1238.8940.00-0.05-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.150.1233.3342.17-0.05-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.180.1221.4327.22-0.10-0.05
Southern MissCUSA0.180.1220.0019.56-0.11-0.07
UTSACUSA0.090.1243.7538.33-0.01-0.03
IonaMAAC0.250.1257.8962.290.040.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.1252.9451.000.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.170.1284.2180.540.120.07
DrakeMVC0.150.1125.0025.30-0.08-0.06
Fort WayneSum0.000.1168.7569.290.000.04
IUPUISum0.000.1135.2942.44-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.150.1117.6527.66-0.10-0.05
South DakotaSum0.150.1157.8957.060.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.160.1117.6521.39-0.11-0.07
Wichita St.MVC0.230.1178.9582.970.130.07
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.1157.1458.850.010.02
Washington St.P120.150.1150.0035.480.00-0.03
MontanaBSky0.080.0952.6360.470.000.02
Idaho St.BSky0.090.096.6718.54-0.08-0.06
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0952.9450.980.000.00
SamfordSC0.080.0964.7159.940.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0946.1553.09-0.010.01
Seton HallBE0.170.0966.6758.200.060.01
Weber St.BSky0.090.0953.8564.270.010.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.160.0962.5068.380.040.03
MercerSC0.170.0935.2944.11-0.05-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0921.4326.05-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0962.5065.730.020.03
DetroitHorz0.090.0817.6524.31-0.06-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.170.0831.2536.83-0.06-0.02
Green BayHorz0.150.0856.2554.680.020.01
OhioMAC0.160.0866.6767.310.050.03
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0877.7877.180.040.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.160.0833.3330.24-0.05-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.080.0837.5045.11-0.02-0.01
ColoradoP120.080.0852.9454.300.000.01
OregonP120.000.0888.2482.680.000.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0618.7528.13-0.06-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0616.6718.35-0.05-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0655.5653.980.010.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0637.5044.59-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.090.0653.8554.520.010.01
SMUAmer0.100.0678.9576.610.060.03
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0612.5019.01-0.07-0.04
St. John'sBE0.000.0645.0038.58-0.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0633.3333.44-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0617.6524.66-0.06-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0617.6529.57-0.06-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0647.0649.73-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0676.4777.760.050.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0623.5324.34-0.05-0.03
Texas St.SB0.090.0653.3345.900.01-0.00
TroySB0.090.0647.0648.08-0.01-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0675.0074.750.000.03
DaytonA100.170.0675.0076.080.080.03
FIUCUSA0.090.0612.5021.92-0.07-0.03
FurmanSC0.000.0650.0054.870.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.170.0670.5958.350.070.01
Murray St.OVC0.150.0647.0655.40-0.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.150.0631.2537.17-0.06-0.01
The CitadelSC0.090.0635.2930.56-0.03-0.02
UABCUSA0.080.0658.8263.680.010.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0668.7563.220.030.02
VMISC0.090.0614.2915.94-0.06-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0618.7520.55-0.05-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0647.3745.13-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0626.6739.94-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0655.5660.000.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.170.0612.5033.85-0.13-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.160.0652.9455.270.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.080.0637.5038.14-0.02-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0635.2935.32-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0627.7834.21-0.03-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0668.7573.530.030.03
KansasB120.080.0694.4481.660.070.04
Kent St.MAC0.000.0647.0648.25-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.080.0683.3377.690.050.03
Miami OHMAC0.080.0637.5034.43-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0658.8257.810.010.01
TexasB120.080.0638.8935.71-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.080.0658.8254.920.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.150.0542.1142.60-0.02-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0312.5024.41-0.06-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0335.7136.20-0.02-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0335.2937.77-0.03-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0346.1551.20-0.010.00
NJITASun0.090.0341.1845.41-0.02-0.00
PurdueB100.090.0378.9576.880.050.02
Texas TechB120.090.0376.4763.780.050.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0343.7543.54-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.090.0335.2931.88-0.03-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0382.3582.810.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0331.2539.90-0.03-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0326.6732.18-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0325.0033.65-0.04-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0361.1162.130.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0317.6535.23-0.05-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0362.5066.040.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0325.0031.94-0.04-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0314.2929.37-0.06-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.090.0347.0648.43-0.01-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0388.2484.340.070.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0368.7570.380.030.01
Wake ForestACC0.090.0358.8252.990.020.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0321.4336.57-0.04-0.01
AmericanPat0.080.0323.5329.83-0.04-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0364.7156.190.000.00
BelmontOVC0.080.0373.3373.080.040.01
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0356.2551.860.010.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0322.2225.54-0.05-0.01
CreightonBE0.080.0394.4484.830.070.02
DePaulBE0.080.0342.1130.44-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0362.5060.130.020.01
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0356.2553.390.010.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0329.4134.19-0.03-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0364.7161.540.020.01
MassachusettsA100.080.0361.1159.260.020.01
MemphisAmer0.080.0372.2264.100.030.01
Montana St.BSky0.080.0329.4138.85-0.03-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.030.0014.41-0.08-0.02
RadfordBSth0.080.0337.5043.16-0.02-0.00
RiderMAAC0.080.0357.8953.010.010.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0352.9452.830.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0344.4442.66-0.01-0.00
VirginiaACC0.080.0381.2576.190.050.01
BradleyMVC0.080.0338.8934.53-0.02-0.01
ButlerBE0.080.0384.2178.350.050.02
Michigan St.B100.080.0363.1657.650.020.00
MissouriSEC0.080.0331.2526.54-0.03-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0350.0066.230.000.01
TowsonCAA0.080.0350.0052.280.000.00