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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


UC Irvine

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:88.0
Current RPI:88
Expected SOS:143
Current SOS:143
Current Record:19-12
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:14-5
Expected Conf Record:14-5
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:155
Expected OOC SOS:118



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1288.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Irvine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Pacific (241.0)WCCH68-50W100%0.0
11-19Arizona (5.0)P12A71-54L0%0.0
11-23Saint Mary's (68.0)WCCA72-69L0%0.0
11-29Loyola Marymount (268.0)WCCA72-80W100%0.0
12-3Fresno St. (182.0)MWCA72-63L0%0.0
12-6Sacramento St. (141.0)BSkyH74-62W100%0.0
12-13UT Arlington (184.0)SBH62-70L0%0.0
12-16Morgan St. (337.0)MEACA63-62L0%0.0
12-21Bradley (288.0)MVCN47-55W100%0.0
12-22Green Bay (54.0)HorzN72-70W100%0.0
12-29Oregon (27.0)P12A69-67L0%0.0
1-3New Mexico St. (103.0)WACA70-67L0%0.0
1-8Long Beach St. (111.0)BWH82-88L0%0.0
1-10UC Riverside (234.0)BWH69-55W100%0.0
1-15Cal St. Fullerton (314.0)BWA58-63W100%0.0
1-22Cal St. Northridge (282.0)BWA49-80W100%0.0
1-24Hawaii (152.0)BWA72-78W100%0.0
1-29Cal Poly (199.0)BWH67-57W100%0.0
1-31UC Santa Barbara (87.0)BWH77-55W100%0.0
2-5UC Davis (75.0)BWH56-75L0%0.0
2-7Long Beach St. (111.0)BWA55-56W100%0.0
2-14UC Riverside (234.0)BWA70-63L0%0.0
2-19Hawaii (152.0)BWH75-60W100%0.0
2-21Cal St. Northridge (282.0)BWH67-58W100%0.0
2-26Cal Poly (199.0)BWA56-63W100%0.0
2-28UC Santa Barbara (87.0)BWA54-51L0%0.0
3-5Cal St. Fullerton (314.0)BWH68-62W100%0.0
3-7UC Davis (75.0)BWA80-61L0%0.0
3-12UC Riverside (234.0)BWN63-54W100%0.0
3-13UC Santa Barbara (87.0)BWN63-72W100%0.0
3-14Hawaii (152.0)BWN67-58W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Irvine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Irvine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Irvine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC IrvineBW26.5826.5865.4765.478.228.22
HawaiiBW5.825.8266.6766.671.941.94
UC Santa BarbaraBW5.795.7959.2659.261.071.07
UC RiversideBW5.785.7842.3142.31-0.89-0.89
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.284.2824.1424.14-2.21-2.21
Cal PolyBW4.274.2744.0044.00-0.51-0.51
UC DavisBW4.264.2677.7877.782.372.37
Long Beach St.BW4.224.2244.8344.83-0.44-0.44
Cal St. FullertonBW4.174.1725.9325.93-2.01-2.01
Saint Mary'sWCC1.841.8467.8667.860.660.66
OregonP121.821.8271.8871.880.790.79
Loyola MarymountWCC1.811.8124.1424.14-0.94-0.94
Morgan St.MEAC1.781.7820.0020.00-1.07-1.07
Sacramento St.BSky1.751.7564.2964.290.500.50
PacificWCC1.751.7533.3333.33-0.58-0.58
ArizonaP121.741.7490.9190.911.421.42
Fresno St.MWC1.701.7041.3841.38-0.29-0.29
New Mexico St.WAC1.641.6466.6766.670.550.55
BradleyMVC1.641.6425.8125.81-0.79-0.79
UT ArlingtonSB1.641.6448.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Green BayHorz1.611.6175.8675.860.830.83
SeattleWAC0.350.3548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.330.3341.9441.94-0.05-0.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.310.3140.0040.00-0.06-0.06
PepperdineWCC0.300.3056.6756.670.040.04
BYUWCC0.290.2971.8871.880.130.13
UCLAP120.290.2960.6160.610.060.06
GonzagaWCC0.280.2893.9493.940.240.24
San Diego St.MWC0.260.2675.7675.760.140.14
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.260.2636.6736.67-0.07-0.07
NevadaMWC0.250.2524.1424.14-0.13-0.13
San DiegoWCC0.250.2546.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.240.2448.1548.15-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.220.2281.2581.250.140.14
Washington St.P120.210.2141.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.190.1965.5265.520.060.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.190.1932.1432.14-0.07-0.07
CaliforniaP120.180.1854.5554.550.020.02
UtahP120.180.1874.1974.190.090.09
Oregon St.P120.180.1853.3353.330.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.180.1887.1087.100.130.13
ColoradoP120.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.160.160.000.00-0.16-0.16
Grand CanyonWAC0.160.1651.7251.720.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
USCP120.160.1637.5037.50-0.04-0.04
WashingtonP120.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.140.1446.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
IdahoBSky0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
MercerSC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Georgia St.SB0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Montana St.BSky0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1086.6786.670.080.08
XavierBE0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
DrakeMVC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1090.9190.910.080.08
Kansas St.B120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.100.1021.8821.88-0.06-0.06
NebraskaB100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
KansasB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
SMUAmer0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Texas St.SB0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
VermontAE0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
St. John'sBE0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
WyomingMWC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
TexasB120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
DetroitHorz0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.070.0767.8667.860.030.03
PittsburghACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
Miami FLACC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
BaylorB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
IllinoisB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
VCUA100.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00