UC Irvine

Conference:	BW
Expected RPI:	125.0
Current RPI:	125
Expected SOS:	159
Current SOS:	159
Current Record:	18-15
Expected Record:	18-15
Current Conf Record:	13-8
Expected Conf Record:	13-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-6
Current OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC RPI:	106
Expected OOC SOS:	65

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-15	125.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Irvine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Nevada (171.0)	MWC	H	78-64	W	100%
11-13	UCLA (26.0)	P12	A	80-79	L	0%
11-19	Liberty (288.0)	BSth	N	64-46	W	100%
11-20	Southern Mississippi (31.0)	CUSA	N	69-65	L	0%
11-21	Sam Houston St. (224.0)	Slnd	A	65-63	L	0%
11-24	Pepperdine (212.0)	WCC	A	72-62	L	0%
11-28	Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)	MWC	A	85-57	L	0%
12-8	Weber St. (84.0)	BSky	A	65-51	L	0%
12-15	Fresno St. (135.0)	MWC	A	51-58	W	100%
12-18	Louisiana St. (86.0)	SEC	H	60-66	L	0%
12-20	Southern California (118.0)	P12	A	54-61	W	100%
12-29	UC Davis (234.0)	BW	H	69-58	W	100%
1-3	UC Santa Barbara (244.0)	BW	A	74-71	L	0%
1-5	Cal Poly (164.0)	BW	A	72-67	L	0%
1-9	Hawaii (210.0)	BW	H	68-64	W	100%
1-12	Cal St. Northridge (254.0)	BW	H	79-69	W	100%
1-17	Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)	BW	A	65-92	W	100%
1-19	UC Riverside (338.0)	BW	A	68-58	L	0%
1-26	Long Beach St. (115.0)	BW	A	81-59	L	0%
1-30	Cal Poly (164.0)	BW	H	52-45	W	100%
2-2	UC Santa Barbara (244.0)	BW	H	62-60	W	100%
2-7	Cal St. Northridge (254.0)	BW	A	70-61	L	0%
2-9	Hawaii (210.0)	BW	A	78-72	L	0%
2-13	UC Riverside (338.0)	BW	H	52-48	W	100%
2-16	Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)	BW	H	86-66	W	100%
2-20	Pacific (97.0)	BW	H	68-59	W	100%
2-23	Texas Arlington (119.0)	WAC	A	70-77	W	100%
3-2	Long Beach St. (115.0)	BW	H	72-69	W	100%
3-7	Pacific (97.0)	BW	A	70-62	L	0%
3-9	UC Davis (234.0)	BW	A	85-88	W	100%
3-14	Hawaii (210.0)	BW	N	71-60	W	100%
3-15	Long Beach St. (115.0)	BW	N	60-67	W	100%
3-16	Pacific (97.0)	BW	N	64-55	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Irvine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UC Irvine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UC Irvine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UC Irvine	BW	26.58	26.58	60.15	60.15	5.40	5.40
Pacific	BW	5.63	5.63	62.07	62.07	1.36	1.36
Long Beach St.	BW	5.61	5.61	59.26	59.26	1.04	1.04
Hawaii	BW	5.51	5.51	55.56	55.56	0.61	0.61
Cal Poly	BW	4.19	4.19	55.56	55.56	0.47	0.47
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	4.10	4.10	42.86	42.86	-0.59	-0.59
UC Santa Barbara	BW	4.09	4.09	29.63	29.63	-1.66	-1.66
UC Davis	BW	4.08	4.08	48.28	48.28	-0.14	-0.14
UC Riverside	BW	4.06	4.06	11.54	11.54	-3.13	-3.13
Cal St. Northridge	BW	4.04	4.04	40.74	40.74	-0.75	-0.75
Fresno St.	MWC	1.96	1.96	33.33	33.33	-0.65	-0.65
Nevada	MWC	1.84	1.84	37.93	37.93	-0.44	-0.44
UCLA	P12	1.77	1.77	72.73	72.73	0.80	0.80
Pepperdine	WCC	1.70	1.70	35.71	35.71	-0.48	-0.48
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	1.70	1.70	71.88	71.88	0.74	0.74
Southern California	P12	1.69	1.69	45.16	45.16	-0.16	-0.16
Louisiana St.	SEC	1.57	1.57	60.00	60.00	0.31	0.31
Liberty	BSth	1.56	1.56	38.71	38.71	-0.35	-0.35
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	1.56	1.56	70.97	70.97	0.66	0.66
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	1.56	1.56	43.33	43.33	-0.21	-0.21
Texas Arlington	WAC	1.52	1.52	61.29	61.29	0.34	0.34
Weber St.	BSky	1.52	1.52	79.31	79.31	0.89	0.89
Wyoming	MWC	0.28	0.28	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
California	P12	0.26	0.26	64.52	64.52	0.08	0.08
Boise St.	MWC	0.25	0.25	65.52	65.52	0.08	0.08
San Diego St.	MWC	0.25	0.25	66.67	66.67	0.08	0.08
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.25	0.25	34.38	34.38	-0.08	-0.08
St. Mary's	WCC	0.25	0.25	81.25	81.25	0.15	0.15
Santa Clara	WCC	0.23	0.23	63.33	63.33	0.06	0.06
Air Force	MWC	0.23	0.23	53.57	53.57	0.02	0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.23	0.23	32.26	32.26	-0.08	-0.08
Washington	P12	0.22	0.22	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.21	0.21	78.12	78.12	0.12	0.12
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.21	0.21	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Colorado St.	MWC	0.20	0.20	74.19	74.19	0.10	0.10
New Mexico	MWC	0.20	0.20	85.29	85.29	0.14	0.14
Stanford	P12	0.19	0.19	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.18	0.18	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.18	0.18	31.25	31.25	-0.07	-0.07
Southern Utah	BSky	0.18	0.18	31.03	31.03	-0.07	-0.07
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.17	0.17	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.17	0.17	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.17	0.17	63.64	63.64	0.05	0.05
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.15	0.15	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.15	0.15	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.15	0.15	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.15	0.15	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.15	0.15	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Washington St.	P12	0.15	0.15	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.12	0.12	85.19	85.19	0.09	0.09
Gonzaga	WCC	0.12	0.12	93.75	93.75	0.11	0.11
Utah	P12	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Texas	B12	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.12	0.12	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Portland St.	BSky	0.10	0.10	23.08	23.08	-0.06	-0.06
Texas St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Idaho St.	BSky	0.10	0.10	17.24	17.24	-0.07	-0.07
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.10	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.10	0.10	17.86	17.86	-0.06	-0.06
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	70.37	70.37	0.04	0.04
Idaho	WAC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Montana	BSky	0.08	0.08	79.31	79.31	0.04	0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	7.14	7.14	-0.06	-0.06
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Syracuse	BE	0.08	0.08	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Portland	WCC	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.07	0.07	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Missouri	SEC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Denver	WAC	0.07	0.07	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
High Point	BSth	0.07	0.07	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.07	0.07	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Memphis	CUSA	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.07	0.07	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Christian	B12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.05	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
NC Asheville	BSth	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
North Texas	SB	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.02	0.02	58.82	58.82	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01