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Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


UC Irvine

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:202.6
Current RPI:212
Expected SOS:222
Current SOS:195
Current Record:3-5
Expected Record:13-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-6
Current OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:230
Expected OOC SOS:241



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-877.70.10%
18-996.00.64%
17-10115.61.99%
16-11132.65.37%
15-12152.210.36%
14-13173.815.53%
13-14195.819.39%
12-15217.718.98%
11-16239.814.26%
10-17261.48.17%
9-18280.63.64%
8-19295.61.20%
7-20310.90.27%
6-21319.80.08%
5-22338.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Irvine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Pacific (203.7)WCCH68-50W100%0.0
11-19Arizona (15.4)P12A71-54L0%0.0
11-23Saint Mary's (116.8)WCCA72-69L0%0.0
11-29Loyola Marymount (260.5)WCCA72-80W100%0.0
12-3Fresno St. (269.2)MWCA72-63L0%0.0
12-6Sacramento St. (248.3)BSkyH74-62W100%0.0
12-13UT Arlington (139.5)SBH62-70L0%0.0
12-16Morgan St. (295.3)MEACA63-62L0%0.0
12-21Bradley (270.8)MVCN0-068%5.6
12-29Oregon (103.7)P12A0-018%-11.1
1-3New Mexico St. (109.3)WACA0-019%-10.3
1-8Long Beach St. (88.9)BWH0-052%0.6
1-10UC Riverside (237.6)BWH0-073%7.4
1-15Cal St. Fullerton (264.6)BWA0-052%0.6
1-22Cal St. Northridge (282.3)BWA0-056%1.8
1-24Hawaii (238.2)BWA0-044%-1.7
1-29Cal Poly (266.0)BWH0-080%10.0
1-31UC Santa Barbara (82.4)BWH0-038%-3.6
2-5UC Davis (158.4)BWH0-062%3.7
2-7Long Beach St. (88.9)BWA0-024%-8.4
2-14UC Riverside (237.6)BWA0-045%-1.6
2-19Hawaii (238.2)BWH0-073%7.3
2-21Cal St. Northridge (282.3)BWH0-082%10.8
2-26Cal Poly (266.0)BWA0-053%1.0
2-28UC Santa Barbara (82.4)BWA0-014%-12.6
3-5Cal St. Fullerton (264.6)BWH0-079%9.6
3-7UC Davis (158.4)BWA0-033%-5.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Irvine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Irvine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Irvine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC IrvineBW28.0426.4140.6249.84-5.26-0.08
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.284.7322.2230.17-0.16-1.88
UC RiversideBW0.894.7342.8645.22-0.13-0.45
Cal PolyBW0.764.6833.3332.38-0.25-1.65
Cal St. FullertonBW0.454.6736.3639.67-0.12-0.96
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.004.6637.5063.66-0.001.27
Long Beach St.BW0.004.6440.0049.43-0.00-0.05
HawaiiBW0.004.6266.6754.360.000.40
UC DavisBW0.004.6285.7162.560.001.16
Saint Mary'sWCC6.252.1266.6755.302.080.22
Loyola MarymountWCC6.252.0533.3323.53-2.08-1.09
OregonP120.002.0462.5056.950.000.28
PacificWCC6.252.0250.0039.990.00-0.40
Morgan St.MEAC6.252.0111.1135.26-4.86-0.59
Sacramento St.BSky6.251.9850.0044.660.00-0.21
ArizonaP126.251.98100.0080.296.251.20
Fresno St.MWC6.251.9622.2225.99-3.47-0.94
New Mexico St.WAC0.451.8840.0064.51-0.090.55
BradleyMVC0.351.8833.3332.68-0.12-0.65
UT ArlingtonSB6.251.8850.0054.270.000.16
PepperdineWCC0.310.3671.4360.450.130.08
SeattleWAC0.000.3637.5045.72-0.00-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.3444.4449.60-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.730.3490.0091.020.580.28
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.3450.0041.450.00-0.06
BYUWCC0.000.3366.6767.890.000.12
NevadaMWC0.000.2912.5024.45-0.00-0.15
San Diego St.MWC0.280.2877.7875.600.160.15
UCLAP120.000.2872.7357.470.000.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.2754.5557.870.000.04
PortlandWCC0.450.2475.0049.190.22-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.730.2333.3341.10-0.24-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.310.2311.1129.23-0.24-0.10
Portland St.BSky0.000.2357.1447.350.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.000.2340.0028.86-0.00-0.10
San Jose St.MWC0.000.200.007.95-0.00-0.17
Colorado St.MWC0.450.20100.0077.640.450.11
CaliforniaP120.310.1990.0065.960.250.06
New MexicoMWC0.000.1966.6758.510.000.03
USCP120.450.1960.0037.100.09-0.05
WashingtonP120.450.19100.0070.570.450.08
Oregon St.P120.000.1975.0050.490.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1733.3359.83-0.000.03
Northern ArizonaBSky1.210.1740.0049.29-0.24-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.350.1640.0044.19-0.07-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1628.5726.77-0.00-0.07
UtahP120.000.1677.7880.520.000.10
Arizona St.P120.450.1660.0053.940.090.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1433.3339.81-0.00-0.03
IdahoBSky0.000.1437.5049.62-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.1350.0053.970.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1375.0070.980.000.06
Boise St.MWC0.890.1375.0067.800.450.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1333.3340.42-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1387.5085.930.000.09
Montana St.BSky0.350.1325.0027.78-0.17-0.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.1342.8639.29-0.00-0.03
StanfordP120.000.1271.4361.160.000.03
Kansas St.B120.280.1260.0038.270.06-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.12100.0085.390.000.09
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1262.5078.030.000.07
XavierBE0.000.1280.0071.140.000.05
NortheasternCAA0.000.1075.0061.240.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.1057.1459.520.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.310.1037.5037.27-0.08-0.03
MaristMAAC0.310.1010.0018.60-0.25-0.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.450.1020.0026.45-0.27-0.05
MercerSC0.450.1037.5041.09-0.11-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.350.1020.0039.53-0.21-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.450.1062.5054.950.110.01
EvansvilleMVC0.310.1075.0070.380.160.04
WyomingMWC0.000.1077.7873.060.000.04
St. John'sBE0.000.0987.5064.670.000.03
Northern IowaMVC0.310.0990.0079.360.250.06
UTEPCUSA0.000.0966.6772.150.000.04
TexasB120.350.0990.0081.780.280.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0014.53-0.00-0.07
ColoradoP120.000.0966.6757.220.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.070.008.21-0.00-0.06
IPFWSum0.000.0757.1456.130.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0711.1130.96-0.00-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0766.6776.390.000.04
FurmanSC0.000.0725.0029.22-0.00-0.03
High PointBSth0.000.0762.5055.430.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.450.0716.6733.31-0.30-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0766.6742.930.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0725.0033.19-0.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0762.5053.840.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.070.0034.13-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0716.6727.17-0.00-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.350.0728.5742.20-0.15-0.01
KansasB120.000.0788.8969.900.000.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0750.0033.140.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0766.6770.530.000.03
VermontAE0.000.0750.0060.040.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0642.8633.13-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0620.0033.83-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0011.59-0.00-0.05
DrakeMVC0.000.0620.0020.57-0.00-0.04
FIUCUSA0.000.0650.0054.480.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0660.0064.120.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0671.4372.840.000.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0662.5065.100.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3334.47-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0642.8652.83-0.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3347.11-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0666.6754.790.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0642.8638.69-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0039.43-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0660.0050.220.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0642.8644.96-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0660.0047.810.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.0633.3341.99-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0622.2242.30-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0666.6765.150.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0655.5653.100.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0013.10-0.00-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0022.93-0.00-0.03
UNLVMWC0.000.0671.4350.790.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.310.0644.4449.79-0.03-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0641.6743.24-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.310.0650.0056.650.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0633.3331.09-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0620.0040.86-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6757.080.000.01
MichiganB100.280.0655.5642.720.03-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0050.98-0.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.450.0344.4447.24-0.05-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.450.0337.5031.71-0.11-0.01
CreightonBE0.450.0372.7351.370.200.00
DenverSum0.450.0344.4455.06-0.050.00
BaylorB120.000.0388.8975.070.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.350.0375.0069.770.170.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0383.3363.180.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0320.0020.84-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.350.03100.0094.460.350.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0350.0059.030.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0344.4444.67-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0333.3343.11-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0355.5631.620.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0311.1129.36-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0067.440.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0311.1145.10-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.310.0387.5047.890.23-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0033.87-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0350.0053.430.000.00
ElonCAA0.310.0337.5048.77-0.08-0.00
HoustonAmer0.310.0383.3358.570.210.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0333.3343.17-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0370.0066.410.000.01
LibertyBSth0.310.0328.5732.96-0.13-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0037.01-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0355.5647.220.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6751.450.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0344.4469.77-0.000.01
Penn St.B100.310.0390.9154.340.260.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0345.4551.71-0.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.73-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0322.2236.43-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0355.5655.960.000.00
TowsonCAA0.310.0366.6751.390.100.00
VCUA100.000.0370.0071.110.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.310.0355.5638.250.03-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.280.0342.8656.16-0.040.00
MissouriSEC0.280.0344.4431.46-0.03-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.280.0337.5037.71-0.07-0.01
OaklandHorz0.280.0330.0031.51-0.11-0.01