live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Feb 7, 2012.


UC Irvine

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:259.3
Current RPI:273
Expected SOS:212
Current SOS:257
Current Record:7-13
Expected Record:10-17
Current Conf Record:5-5
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.96%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:278
Expected OOC SOS:118



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-13175.00.01%
13-14203.40.23%
12-15218.13.27%
11-16236.115.39%
10-17253.031.73%
9-18268.632.18%
8-19281.614.95%
7-20291.72.23%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Irvine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11California (42.1)P12A77-56L0%0.0
11-14San Jose St. (280.7)WACA51-50L0%0.0
11-19Weber St. (85.4)BSkyH72-80L0%0.0
11-24Southern Mississippi (15.4)CUSAN78-67L0%0.0
11-25Central Michigan (271.4)MACN82-72L0%0.0
12-3San Diego (211.6)WCCH99-79W100%0.0
12-13Wyoming (56.6)MWCA58-48L0%0.0
12-15Louisiana St. (86.2)SECA66-59L0%0.0
12-20UCLA (109.3)P12A89-60L0%0.0
12-29Cal St. Northridge (309.3)BWA62-71W100%0.0
1-2Long Beach St. (38.6)BWH60-74L0%0.0
1-5Pacific (264.2)BWA69-73W100%0.0
1-7UC Davis (342.3)BWA55-70W100%0.0
1-12Cal Poly (194.2)BWH50-66L0%0.0
1-14UC Santa Barbara (147.1)BWA74-56L0%0.0
1-21Cal St. Fullerton (167.6)BWH84-92L0%0.0
1-24Seattle (290.1)indH78-67W100%0.0
1-28UC Riverside (255.7)BWH65-57W100%0.0
2-2UC Davis (342.3)BWH68-61W100%0.0
2-4Pacific (264.2)BWH64-72L0%0.0
2-9Cal St. Fullerton (167.6)BWA0-020%-9.1
2-11Cal Poly (194.2)BWA0-015%-11.2
2-15UC Santa Barbara (147.1)BWH0-034%-4.4
2-18Eastern Washington (209.8)BSkyH0-050%-0.1
2-25Cal St. Northridge (309.3)BWH0-080%9.3
2-29Long Beach St. (38.6)BWA0-05%-18.2
3-3UC Riverside (255.7)BWA0-047%-0.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Irvine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Irvine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Irvine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC IrvineBW26.4526.4534.3834.99-8.27-7.94
UC DavisBW5.674.800.005.71-5.67-4.25
Cal PolyBW3.304.7247.6254.12-0.160.39
UC Santa BarbaraBW3.294.7052.9455.860.190.55
UC RiversideBW3.364.6945.0040.69-0.34-0.87
Cal St. FullertonBW3.184.6863.1664.860.841.39
Long Beach St.BW3.184.6670.0071.591.272.01
PacificBW5.554.6533.3336.56-1.85-1.25
Cal St. NorthridgeBW3.184.6522.2223.51-1.77-2.46
San Jose St.WAC2.982.2123.8124.35-1.56-1.14
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.372.1240.9144.07-0.07-0.25
CaliforniaP122.752.0673.9173.781.310.98
UCLAP122.672.0152.3855.290.130.21
Seattleind2.561.9823.5334.43-1.35-0.62
Weber St.BSky2.611.9878.9575.781.511.02
San DiegoWCC2.571.9335.0035.12-0.77-0.57
Central MichiganMAC2.501.8525.0031.76-1.25-0.68
Louisiana St.SEC2.501.8557.1455.790.360.21
Southern MississippiCUSA2.501.8585.0081.591.751.17
WyomingMWC2.501.8575.0069.621.250.73
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.680.6147.8347.88-0.03-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.480.4085.7178.110.340.23
HawaiiWAC0.550.3757.1453.020.080.02
Montana St.BSky0.250.3445.0041.71-0.02-0.06
StanfordP120.480.3369.5768.330.190.12
Southern CaliforniaP120.290.3225.0025.08-0.15-0.16
Utah St.WAC0.380.3250.0052.950.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.320.3242.8645.93-0.05-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.440.3128.5726.31-0.19-0.15
Fresno St.WAC0.240.3139.1344.46-0.05-0.03
IdahoWAC0.370.3050.0051.460.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.300.3030.0033.22-0.12-0.10
WashingtonP120.310.2869.5766.590.120.09
Idaho St.BSky0.240.2731.8232.98-0.09-0.09
PepperdineWCC0.240.2431.8233.75-0.09-0.08
MontanaBSky0.180.2471.4373.990.080.11
Boise St.MWC0.240.2342.8641.08-0.03-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.120.2330.0031.40-0.05-0.09
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.240.2382.6181.430.160.15
Southern UtahSum0.300.2345.4544.27-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.310.2156.5253.760.040.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.2013.6416.23-0.05-0.14
St. Mary'sWCC0.240.2090.9187.780.200.15
NevadaWAC0.240.2080.9576.420.150.10
UtahP120.230.1918.1815.00-0.15-0.14
Washington St.P120.170.1950.0048.170.00-0.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.250.1875.0076.020.130.09
New Mexico St.WAC0.240.1669.5769.000.090.06
Utah ValleyGWC0.260.1454.5557.710.020.02
PortlandWCC0.130.1421.7421.75-0.07-0.08
Louisiana TechWAC0.180.1342.8643.52-0.03-0.02
AuburnSEC0.120.1354.1747.950.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.170.1266.6762.690.060.03
OregonP120.110.1269.5764.490.040.04
Arizona St.P120.170.1230.4331.40-0.07-0.05
GonzagaWCC0.060.1081.8281.500.040.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.120.1059.0957.690.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.120.1025.0023.73-0.06-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.120.1066.6760.840.040.02
Texas El PasoCUSA0.060.1043.4843.27-0.01-0.01
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.120.1057.1460.720.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.180.1052.3852.880.010.01
KansasB120.120.1078.2678.420.070.06
DenverSB0.170.0970.8372.240.070.04
MississippiSEC0.120.0963.6456.680.030.01
ArizonaP120.110.0966.6768.550.040.03
Oregon St.P120.110.0963.6463.170.030.02
Arkansas St.SB0.140.0837.5038.36-0.03-0.02
Longwoodind0.000.0828.5725.79-0.00-0.04
DrakeMVC0.070.0752.1750.010.000.00
VirginiaACC0.130.0781.8276.800.080.04
Houston BaptistGWC0.060.0725.0028.48-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0754.1754.760.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0726.3229.64-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0782.6180.500.040.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.0721.0524.33-0.07-0.03
TulaneCUSA0.120.0761.9058.610.030.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0747.3742.13-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0730.4326.42-0.02-0.03
CreightonMVC0.000.0784.0082.620.000.04
Kansas St.B120.060.0773.9168.410.030.02
LouisvilleBE0.060.0779.1774.200.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.060.0781.8281.020.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.060.0786.9683.300.040.04
PittsburghBE0.060.0762.5059.520.010.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0726.3228.82-0.03-0.03
Texas ChristianMWC0.060.0757.1449.570.01-0.00
VillanovaBE0.060.0745.8345.52-0.00-0.01
XavierA100.060.0765.2263.690.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0752.3853.290.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.060.0655.0057.420.010.01
BryantNEC0.120.068.3310.84-0.10-0.05
Central FloridaCUSA0.060.0671.4366.550.030.02
DePaulBE0.060.0647.8342.19-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.120.0644.4441.65-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0640.9138.38-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0659.0959.780.010.01
MemphisCUSA0.120.0669.5771.580.050.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0652.1758.490.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0623.8133.67-0.03-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.065.267.29-0.05-0.05
ToledoMAC0.060.0638.1040.84-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.060.0640.9139.81-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0640.9142.97-0.01-0.01
HoustonCUSA0.060.0647.6244.58-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.0644.4445.20-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0669.5770.160.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.110.0669.5765.180.040.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0678.2672.280.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0645.4541.17-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.070.0490.4887.910.060.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0434.7838.43-0.02-0.01
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.000.0476.1975.980.000.02
MaineAE0.060.0347.6248.01-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0344.4448.16-0.01-0.00
BradleyMVC0.060.0324.0024.86-0.03-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0319.0519.39-0.04-0.02
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.060.0335.0039.40-0.02-0.01
AkronMAC0.060.0368.1867.980.020.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0347.6248.81-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0368.4266.510.000.01
CharlotteA100.060.0350.0049.460.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0342.1149.86-0.01-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.060.0314.2917.12-0.04-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0328.5729.05-0.03-0.01
Iowa St.B120.060.0370.8366.500.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0371.4369.050.030.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0330.0034.18-0.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0370.8362.750.020.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.03100.0094.580.060.03
NebraskaB100.060.0350.0044.980.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.060.0381.8277.180.040.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0347.6246.51-0.00-0.00
South FloridaBE0.060.0354.5548.540.01-0.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.000.0338.1037.80-0.00-0.01
TempleA100.060.0377.2775.070.030.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0356.5253.060.010.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0317.3920.75-0.00-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.000.0360.8759.050.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0341.6740.47-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0368.4268.620.020.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0379.1776.620.030.02
Georgia TechACC0.060.0339.1342.16-0.01-0.00
GramblingSWAC0.060.0314.2914.31-0.04-0.02
KentuckySEC0.060.0396.0093.530.050.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0380.0076.670.030.02
MichiganB100.060.0369.5766.330.020.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.060.0383.3384.760.040.02
North TexasSB0.060.0350.0050.000.000.00
NorthwesternB100.060.0363.6457.790.020.00
PennsylvaniaIvy0.060.0354.5556.800.010.00
RichmondA100.060.0350.0048.480.00-0.00
RutgersBE0.060.0350.0046.870.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0340.9139.60-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0343.4840.24-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0345.4544.56-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.060.0362.5062.200.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0369.5765.880.000.01
Western KentuckySB0.060.0334.7834.46-0.02-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0332.0035.39-0.02-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0334.7832.05-0.02-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0318.1823.34-0.03-0.02
MissouriB120.050.0391.6787.920.040.02