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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Southeast Missouri St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:266.5
Current RPI:243
Expected SOS:269
Current SOS:322
Current Record:3-3
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-6
Current OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:278
Expected OOC SOS:320



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-999.00.01%
18-10128.60.10%
17-11143.40.29%
16-12161.10.92%
15-13183.02.45%
14-14205.55.72%
13-15226.710.40%
12-16247.115.65%
11-17266.119.54%
10-18284.217.92%
9-19299.114.15%
8-20312.07.57%
7-21321.93.71%
6-22331.51.21%
5-23336.80.31%
4-24343.20.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southeast Missouri St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Illinois (134.7)B10A81-62L0%0.0
11-16Western Illinois (333.0)SumA71-74W100%0.0
11-18Bradley (274.4)MVCA84-78L0%0.0
11-22UT Rio Grande Valley (299.3)WACH83-72W100%0.0
11-28UMKC (146.9)WACA86-75L0%0.0
12-1Central Arkansas (282.4)SlndH87-63W100%0.0
12-4Indiana (20.3)B10A0-01%-27.7
12-7Missouri St. (124.0)MVCH0-020%-10.2
12-10Northern Kentucky (176.9)HorzH0-043%-2.1
12-17Missouri St. (124.0)MVCA0-09%-16.4
12-19DePaul (206.1)BEA0-022%-9.4
12-22Chicago St. (292.4)WACN0-067%5.4
12-31Eastern Kentucky (174.6)OVCH0-046%-1.3
1-5Tennessee St. (93.2)OVCA0-014%-13.0
1-7Belmont (122.5)OVCA0-015%-12.4
1-10Tennessee Tech (304.6)OVCH0-064%4.4
1-14Tennessee Martin (178.1)OVCA0-030%-6.2
1-19SIU Edwardsville (228.3)OVCH0-061%3.4
1-21Eastern Illinois (261.0)OVCH0-053%1.1
1-26Murray St. (139.5)OVCA0-015%-12.5
1-28Austin Peay (212.5)OVCA0-032%-5.5
2-1Jacksonville St. (187.2)OVCA0-030%-6.3
2-4Morehead St. (211.9)OVCH0-047%-1.0
2-9SIU Edwardsville (228.3)OVCA0-041%-2.8
2-11Eastern Illinois (261.0)OVCA0-033%-5.1
2-18Tennessee Martin (178.1)OVCH0-050%-0.0
2-23Murray St. (139.5)OVCH0-030%-6.3
2-25Austin Peay (212.5)OVCH0-052%0.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southeast Missouri St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southeast Missouri St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southeast Missouri St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southeast Missouri St.OVC28.8326.2659.0939.095.24-5.73
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.534.4050.0042.450.00-0.66
Tennessee MartinOVC0.524.3475.0053.910.260.34
Austin PeayOVC0.004.3340.0040.43-0.00-0.83
Murray St.OVC0.604.3142.8660.69-0.090.92
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.004.3057.1439.930.00-0.87
Missouri St.MVC0.003.7275.0063.420.001.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.002.4957.1446.520.00-0.17
Morehead St.OVC0.002.4820.0041.49-0.00-0.42
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.002.4342.8646.50-0.00-0.17
Tennessee TechOVC0.002.4314.2928.40-0.00-1.05
BelmontOVC0.002.4240.0060.47-0.000.51
Tennessee St.OVC0.002.4283.3369.750.000.96
Chicago St.WAC0.002.070.0016.71-0.00-1.38
UMKCWAC8.332.0466.6754.422.780.18
BradleyMVC8.332.0140.0026.84-1.67-0.93
Northern KentuckyHorz0.601.9850.0051.970.000.08
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC8.331.9828.5725.18-3.57-0.98
Western IllinoisSum8.331.950.0023.63-8.33-1.03
IndianaB100.001.9483.3374.270.000.94
DePaulBE0.001.8880.0034.500.00-0.58
IllinoisB108.331.8550.0040.680.00-0.34
Central ArkansasSlnd8.331.8216.6730.13-5.56-0.72
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.3750.0046.670.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.3433.3340.39-0.00-0.07
Illinois St.MVC0.000.3150.0066.170.000.10
LipscombASun0.000.2914.2933.07-0.00-0.10
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.2650.0056.260.000.03
Green BayHorz0.600.2533.3348.71-0.20-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.2533.3346.81-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.600.240.0021.30-0.60-0.14
Fort WayneSum0.000.2366.6770.930.000.10
IUPUISum0.000.2028.5747.72-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1950.0059.670.000.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1971.4368.100.000.07
SeattleWAC0.000.1920.0042.63-0.00-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1960.0058.950.000.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1950.0050.290.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.190.0013.30-0.00-0.14
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1866.6754.420.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1840.0057.49-0.000.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1871.4386.030.000.13
NorthwesternB100.000.1871.4366.220.000.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1714.2937.52-0.00-0.04
Saint LouisA100.000.1633.3326.75-0.00-0.08
Miami OHMAC0.830.1650.0033.010.00-0.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1633.3333.15-0.00-0.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1642.8634.17-0.00-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1616.6730.27-0.00-0.06
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1685.7174.430.000.08
PurdueB100.000.1671.4374.450.000.08
DetroitHorz0.600.160.0019.51-0.60-0.09
MississippiSEC0.000.1671.4346.010.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1585.7168.390.000.06
WisconsinB100.600.1575.0073.840.300.07
MichiganB100.000.1571.4366.530.000.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1350.0061.810.000.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.130.0019.30-0.00-0.08
TroySB0.000.1333.3332.23-0.00-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1385.7173.010.000.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1320.0034.39-0.00-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.000.1371.4355.750.000.01
DelawareCAA0.690.1240.0040.65-0.14-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.1271.4363.090.000.03
IowaB100.520.1242.8644.33-0.07-0.01
MarylandB100.000.1285.7156.490.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.12100.0075.690.000.06
Penn St.B100.000.1262.5043.960.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1033.3348.73-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.600.1057.1447.220.09-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.1050.0045.920.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.600.1033.3343.64-0.20-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.1050.0043.310.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0933.3341.52-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0983.3378.430.000.05
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0966.6756.360.000.01
WoffordSC0.690.090.0033.58-0.69-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.040.09100.0069.771.040.04
West VirginiaB120.600.0983.3380.550.400.06
CreightonBE0.600.09100.0076.650.600.05
LamarSlnd0.000.0960.0043.970.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0950.0061.590.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0983.3344.770.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0733.3341.11-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0783.3361.150.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0757.1448.860.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0671.4343.020.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0614.2934.56-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6751.460.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0683.3359.600.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0614.2928.15-0.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.0683.3362.840.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0666.6772.440.000.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.940.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.26-0.00-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.600.0671.4350.570.260.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0633.3338.20-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0042.710.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0616.6731.91-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5034.65-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0086.250.000.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0038.35-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.06100.0075.380.000.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0642.8637.60-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.0685.7176.170.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0650.0052.330.000.00
TCUB120.000.06100.0059.480.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.600.0666.6769.810.200.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.0685.7175.950.000.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.600.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0650.0047.560.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0671.4356.280.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0671.4354.520.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0628.5733.92-0.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0083.120.000.04
XavierBE0.000.06100.0074.800.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0685.7165.670.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0650.0043.610.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0685.7172.660.000.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0625.0053.29-0.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0038.51-0.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.600.0660.0057.900.120.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0625.0030.93-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0642.8637.25-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0034.01-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0650.0056.430.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0625.0056.71-0.000.01
AmericanPat0.830.0416.6735.65-0.56-0.01
Kansas St.B120.830.0485.7155.890.600.00
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3380.700.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0387.5075.320.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0328.5730.29-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0075.010.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0350.0035.230.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0385.7155.550.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0371.4370.330.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0337.5036.24-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0357.1448.410.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.520.0328.5734.18-0.22-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0383.3376.370.000.02
MemphisAmer0.520.0385.7159.740.370.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0314.2931.71-0.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0360.0057.170.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0325.0040.37-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.520.0316.6729.36-0.35-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0383.3355.200.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0316.6730.02-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0320.0049.38-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.410.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0314.2929.81-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.480.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0320.0032.60-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0333.3338.19-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0366.6775.370.000.02
OhioMAC0.000.0380.0068.320.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0357.1455.810.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0325.0056.92-0.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0325.0034.47-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0385.7163.780.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0039.200.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.170.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.0371.4368.660.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.600.0385.7162.410.430.01
George MasonA100.690.0357.1442.940.10-0.00
HofstraCAA0.690.0357.1440.550.10-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0375.0070.470.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0039.28-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0371.4363.570.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0357.1464.940.000.01
VCUA100.000.0385.7178.150.000.02
WinthropBSth0.600.0360.0070.500.120.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0360.0048.590.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0357.1436.050.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.600.0333.3345.58-0.20-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0037.92-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0340.0050.71-0.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0020.01-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0024.77-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0385.7180.010.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.600.0383.3356.560.400.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0325.0040.81-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.600.0316.6736.45-0.40-0.01