Southeast Missouri St.

Conference:	OVC
Expected RPI:	241.0
Current RPI:	246
Expected SOS:	306
Current SOS:	308
Current Record:	10-11
Expected Record:	13-14
Current Conf Record:	7-4
Expected Conf Record:	9-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	2.22%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-7
Current OOC Record:	3-7
Expected OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC RPI:	307
Expected OOC SOS:	316

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-11	183.4	0.51%
15-12	200.7	5.10%
14-13	218.6	18.57%
13-14	236.0	33.88%
12-15	254.9	29.48%
11-16	272.2	11.04%
10-17	285.7	1.41%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southeast Missouri St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Missouri (11.3)	B12	A	83-68	L	0%	0.0
11-16	Bradley (247.1)	MVC	A	66-65	L	0%	0.0
11-20	Oregon (88.4)	P12	A	86-61	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Miami OH (209.3)	MAC	H	64-57	W	100%	0.0
11-29	Arkansas St. (228.4)	SB	A	79-63	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Southeastern Louisiana (325.8)	Slnd	H	63-61	W	100%	0.0
12-5	Central Arkansas (298.6)	Slnd	A	88-72	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Missouri Kansas City (242.4)	Sum	H	69-74	L	0%	0.0
12-19	Southern Methodist (213.4)	CUSA	H	65-84	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Sacramento St. (304.4)	BSky	A	76-77	W	100%	0.0
12-28	Morehead St. (187.2)	OVC	H	67-51	W	100%	0.0
1-2	Jacksonville St. (250.3)	OVC	H	74-56	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Tennessee Martin (322.4)	OVC	A	71-73	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Eastern Kentucky (207.5)	OVC	A	63-59	L	0%	0.0
1-12	SIU Edwardsville (304.3)	OVC	H	85-68	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Eastern Illinois (293.1)	OVC	H	80-73	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Tennessee Tech (136.2)	OVC	A	77-62	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Austin Peay (203.1)	OVC	H	65-60	W	100%	0.0
1-30	Eastern Illinois (293.1)	OVC	A	53-74	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Murray St. (30.8)	OVC	A	81-73	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Tennessee St. (156.7)	OVC	H	72-75	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Tennessee Martin (322.4)	OVC	H	0-0		85%	11.2
2-11	SIU Edwardsville (304.3)	OVC	A	0-0		62%	3.2
2-15	Murray St. (30.8)	OVC	H	0-0		17%	-10.3
2-18	McNeese St. (205.8)	Slnd	A	0-0		40%	-2.8
2-23	Jacksonville St. (250.3)	OVC	A	0-0		38%	-3.3
2-25	Austin Peay (203.1)	OVC	A	0-0		33%	-4.9

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southeast Missouri St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Southeast Missouri St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Southeast Missouri St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	26.27	26.30	48.28	49.32	-0.91	-0.36
Tennessee Martin	OVC	3.15	4.58	4.55	9.89	-2.86	-3.67
Eastern Illinois	OVC	5.32	4.48	36.84	37.31	-1.40	-1.14
Murray St.	OVC	3.08	4.46	100.00	94.84	3.08	4.00
Austin Peay	OVC	3.08	4.44	33.33	35.51	-1.03	-1.29
Jacksonville St.	OVC	3.04	4.41	36.36	39.00	-0.83	-0.97
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	3.02	4.40	27.78	30.55	-1.34	-1.71
Tennessee St.	OVC	3.01	2.72	54.55	51.32	0.27	0.07
Morehead St.	OVC	2.97	2.69	47.62	48.83	-0.14	-0.06
Tennessee Tech	OVC	2.98	2.67	59.09	58.36	0.54	0.45
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	3.02	2.66	47.83	50.03	-0.13	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	2.72	2.19	23.53	26.96	-1.44	-1.01
Arkansas St.	SB	2.61	2.08	34.78	36.23	-0.79	-0.57
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	2.45	2.06	29.41	30.69	-1.01	-0.79
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.19	2.03	44.44	44.61	-0.02	-0.22
Sacramento St.	BSky	2.45	1.92	31.58	34.54	-0.90	-0.59
Miami OH	MAC	2.38	1.88	31.58	35.44	-0.88	-0.55
Bradley	MVC	2.43	1.88	20.83	22.35	-1.42	-1.04
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	2.43	1.88	31.82	32.88	-0.88	-0.64
Missouri	B12	2.38	1.85	91.30	87.51	1.97	1.39
Oregon	P12	2.38	1.85	68.18	63.26	0.87	0.49
Southern Methodist	CUSA	2.38	1.85	35.00	35.58	-0.71	-0.53
Lamar	Slnd	0.35	0.34	61.90	67.29	0.08	0.12
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.30	0.31	55.00	54.45	0.03	0.03
Lipscomb	ASun	0.27	0.30	43.48	43.89	-0.04	-0.04
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.25	0.25	83.33	84.76	0.17	0.17
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.13	0.21	25.00	23.73	-0.07	-0.11
Ball St.	MAC	0.23	0.20	55.00	57.42	0.02	0.03
Belmont	ASun	0.21	0.19	70.83	73.74	0.09	0.09
California	P12	0.15	0.19	75.00	74.62	0.07	0.09
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.11	0.18	5.26	7.29	-0.10	-0.15
Western Kentucky	SB	0.18	0.17	34.78	34.46	-0.05	-0.05
UAB	CUSA	0.11	0.17	40.91	39.81	-0.02	-0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.16	0.17	62.50	62.07	0.04	0.04
Memphis	CUSA	0.16	0.16	69.57	71.58	0.06	0.07
Bowling Green	MAC	0.11	0.16	47.62	48.81	-0.01	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.16	0.16	81.82	77.18	0.10	0.09
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.10	0.16	33.33	32.18	-0.03	-0.06
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.21	0.16	80.77	80.77	0.13	0.10
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.12	0.14	42.86	43.52	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.06	0.14	85.71	82.22	0.04	0.09
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.18	0.14	44.44	48.16	-0.02	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.17	0.14	80.00	76.71	0.10	0.07
Maine	AE	0.23	0.14	47.62	48.01	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.16	0.13	34.78	32.10	-0.05	-0.05
Western Illinois	Sum	0.17	0.13	52.63	48.32	0.01	-0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.13	56.52	56.80	0.01	0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.11	0.13	43.48	43.27	-0.01	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.16	0.13	71.43	69.05	0.07	0.05
Tulane	CUSA	0.11	0.13	61.90	58.61	0.03	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.16	0.13	56.52	54.28	0.02	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.10	0.13	8.33	10.90	-0.08	-0.10
Evansville	MVC	0.21	0.13	47.83	47.08	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.07	0.11	26.32	29.85	-0.03	-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.07	0.11	17.39	20.75	-0.04	-0.06
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.13	0.11	76.19	75.98	0.07	0.06
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.00	0.11	57.14	60.72	0.00	0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.00	0.11	22.22	27.56	-0.00	-0.05
Dayton	A10	0.12	0.10	60.87	60.96	0.03	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.11	0.10	23.81	33.67	-0.06	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.11	0.10	69.57	61.84	0.04	0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.17	0.10	40.91	44.29	-0.03	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.10	42.86	45.93	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.12	0.10	47.62	48.48	-0.01	-0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.18	0.10	60.87	59.05	0.04	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.11	0.10	69.57	65.37	0.04	0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.10	18.18	19.91	-0.07	-0.06
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.11	0.10	20.83	25.85	-0.06	-0.05
Colorado St.	MWC	0.11	0.10	66.67	60.84	0.04	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.10	59.09	59.78	0.01	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.10	40.91	43.65	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.16	0.10	33.33	41.30	-0.05	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.10	54.17	54.76	0.00	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.17	0.10	8.70	8.99	-0.14	-0.08
Stanford	P12	0.12	0.10	69.57	68.33	0.05	0.04
Washington St.	P12	0.11	0.10	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.16	0.10	26.32	28.82	-0.07	-0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	78.26	72.28	0.06	0.04
Drake	MVC	0.11	0.10	52.17	50.01	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.16	0.10	56.52	53.94	0.02	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.12	0.10	30.43	25.84	-0.05	-0.05
William & Mary	CAA	0.16	0.09	12.50	13.42	-0.12	-0.07
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.09	79.17	74.20	0.06	0.05
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.11	0.09	43.48	44.26	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.11	0.09	47.83	42.67	-0.00	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.10	0.09	34.78	32.05	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.10	0.09	54.17	57.11	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.07	65.00	66.71	0.02	0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.00	0.07	9.09	12.82	-0.00	-0.06
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.07	34.78	37.18	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.06	0.07	31.82	32.98	-0.02	-0.02
Montana	BSky	0.06	0.07	71.43	73.99	0.03	0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.07	45.00	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.12	0.07	13.64	16.23	-0.09	-0.05
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.12	0.07	30.00	31.40	-0.05	-0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.07	56.52	53.76	0.01	0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.00	0.07	90.91	87.78	0.00	0.05
South Carolina	SEC	0.12	0.07	40.91	39.60	-0.02	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.11	0.07	25.00	28.48	-0.06	-0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.00	0.07	28.57	29.05	-0.00	-0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.11	0.07	63.64	57.79	0.03	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.11	0.07	68.18	68.98	0.04	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.12	0.07	69.57	65.18	0.05	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.07	68.18	67.98	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.07	28.57	35.72	-0.02	-0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.07	68.42	66.51	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.07	28.57	34.11	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.11	0.07	66.67	65.98	0.04	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.10	0.06	38.89	41.49	-0.02	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.06	69.57	70.42	0.04	0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	41.67	40.47	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.06	77.27	77.70	0.06	0.04
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	28.57	30.17	-0.03	-0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.11	0.06	69.57	65.88	0.04	0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.11	0.06	42.86	43.11	-0.02	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.06	47.62	44.58	-0.00	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.10	0.06	34.78	35.53	-0.03	-0.02
Longwood	ind	0.10	0.06	28.57	25.79	-0.04	-0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.06	61.90	63.52	0.01	0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.06	48.00	50.28	-0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.06	47.62	46.51	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.06	73.91	75.47	0.02	0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.10	0.06	45.45	44.27	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.10	0.06	0.00	4.04	-0.10	-0.06
Fresno St.	WAC	0.11	0.06	39.13	44.46	-0.02	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.10	0.06	42.11	45.89	-0.02	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.06	75.00	74.01	0.05	0.03
Wofford	SC	0.10	0.06	56.52	57.20	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.06	66.67	62.69	0.02	0.02
Denver	SB	0.10	0.06	70.83	72.24	0.04	0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.06	47.83	48.88	-0.00	-0.00
North Texas	SB	0.10	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.06	63.64	63.17	0.01	0.02
Seattle	ind	0.10	0.06	22.22	32.99	-0.06	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.06	45.45	44.56	-0.00	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.06	18.18	15.00	-0.03	-0.04
Washington	P12	0.05	0.06	69.57	66.59	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.00	0.06	52.38	53.29	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.06	90.91	83.90	0.04	0.04
Creighton	MVC	0.10	0.06	84.00	82.62	0.06	0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.06	70.83	66.50	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.06	78.26	78.42	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.06	73.91	68.41	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.06	62.50	61.43	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.10	0.06	62.50	62.20	0.02	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.06	50.00	45.20	0.00	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.10	0.06	82.61	80.50	0.06	0.04
Auburn	SEC	0.00	0.04	54.17	47.95	0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.04	50.00	56.75	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.06	0.04	47.83	47.88	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.00	0.04	66.67	69.71	0.00	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.07	0.04	54.17	49.41	0.01	-0.00
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.07	0.04	82.61	81.43	0.04	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.00	0.04	69.57	69.00	0.00	0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.00	0.04	27.27	26.96	-0.00	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.04	0.00	5.31	-0.06	-0.03
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.03	16.67	26.81	-0.03	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.02	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	36.36	40.96	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	75.03	0.03	0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.00	0.03	68.42	68.62	0.00	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.03	58.33	59.92	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.03	59.09	56.38	0.01	0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.03	50.00	52.04	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.03	31.82	32.81	-0.02	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.03	66.67	63.50	0.02	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	52.17	58.49	0.00	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.96	83.30	0.04	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	70.83	64.53	0.02	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.03	47.37	52.90	-0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.03	38.10	40.84	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.03	40.91	42.97	-0.01	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.06	0.03	65.22	63.69	0.02	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.03	17.39	19.76	-0.03	-0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.06	0.03	71.43	66.55	0.02	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.06	0.03	44.44	41.65	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.03	47.83	47.36	-0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.03	18.18	23.34	-0.04	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	74.94	0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.03	27.27	27.33	-0.02	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.03	77.27	73.50	0.03	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.03	63.64	56.68	0.02	0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.03	81.82	81.02	0.03	0.02
Texas Christian	MWC	0.00	0.03	57.14	49.57	0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.03	54.55	57.71	0.00	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.75	-0.02	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.03	30.43	31.40	-0.02	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.03	75.00	76.02	0.03	0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	39.73	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.00	0.03	33.33	37.11	-0.00	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.03	50.00	44.98	0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.03	35.00	40.74	-0.02	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.00	0.03	52.38	52.88	0.00	0.00
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.03	25.00	25.08	-0.03	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.03	60.00	59.09	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.78	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.03	79.17	78.05	0.03	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.03	72.00	72.22	0.02	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.33	0.02	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.03	9.52	13.17	-0.04	-0.02
Nevada	WAC	0.05	0.03	80.95	76.42	0.03	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.03	36.00	40.36	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.67	0.02	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.03	60.00	58.30	0.01	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.03	45.83	45.52	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	37.27	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.03	76.19	70.71	0.02	0.01