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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


Southeast Missouri St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:255.2
Current RPI:241
Expected SOS:298
Current SOS:220
Current Record:1-3
Expected Record:12-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-6
Current OOC Record:1-3
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:290
Expected OOC SOS:286



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-683.30.03%
20-7103.00.01%
19-8127.90.11%
18-9138.90.49%
17-10161.11.60%
16-11180.94.17%
15-12201.18.48%
14-13221.513.44%
13-14242.817.26%
12-15263.517.37%
11-16281.815.64%
10-17297.511.29%
9-18311.26.17%
8-19323.32.60%
7-20332.00.98%
6-21337.20.28%
5-22335.30.06%
4-23342.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southeast Missouri St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Loyola Marymount (225.1)WCCA76-66L0%0.0
11-15San Diego (104.9)WCCN67-56L0%0.0
11-22Central Arkansas (331.7)SlndA68-74W100%0.0
11-25Bowling Green (95.8)MACA62-54L0%0.0
11-29Alabama A&M (330.4)SWACH0-084%11.9
12-2Missouri (158.8)SECA0-021%-9.8
12-6Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndH0-081%10.5
12-10Southern Illinois (197.4)MVCH0-053%0.8
12-13Missouri St. (140.7)MVCH0-042%-2.4
12-20Arkansas (18.7)SECA0-03%-23.2
12-22Mississippi (99.5)SECN0-020%-10.2
1-1Belmont (83.9)OVCA0-013%-13.3
1-3Tennessee St. (309.6)OVCA0-058%2.4
1-8Morehead St. (164.2)OVCH0-045%-1.4
1-10Eastern Kentucky (143.5)OVCH0-045%-1.4
1-14Jacksonville St. (285.6)OVCA0-056%1.7
1-17Tennessee Tech (248.9)OVCH0-064%4.5
1-24Tennessee Martin (276.9)OVCA0-050%0.1
1-29SIU Edwardsville (312.3)OVCH0-075%8.0
1-31Austin Peay (300.8)OVCA0-050%-0.1
2-5Murray St. (133.0)OVCA0-017%-11.5
2-7Eastern Illinois (281.3)OVCH0-068%5.8
2-12Tennessee Martin (276.9)OVCH0-073%7.3
2-14Murray St. (133.0)OVCH0-036%-4.3
2-19SIU Edwardsville (312.3)OVCA0-053%0.8
2-21Eastern Illinois (281.3)OVCA0-045%-1.4
2-28Austin Peay (300.8)OVCH0-072%7.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southeast Missouri St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southeast Missouri St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southeast Missouri St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southeast Missouri St.OVC31.9826.2538.8945.66-7.11-2.28
Murray St.OVC0.004.5333.3368.09-0.001.64
Austin PeayOVC0.004.520.0031.82-0.00-1.64
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.004.490.0034.13-0.00-1.43
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.004.480.0032.61-0.00-1.56
Tennessee MartinOVC0.004.4666.6741.800.00-0.73
Tennessee St.OVC0.002.590.0024.51-0.00-1.32
Tennessee TechOVC0.002.5966.6745.010.00-0.26
Jacksonville St.OVC0.002.5725.0030.92-0.00-0.98
Morehead St.OVC0.002.5620.0053.39-0.000.17
BelmontOVC0.002.5375.0071.380.001.08
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.002.53100.0061.070.000.56
Southern IllinoisMVC0.002.2040.0047.09-0.00-0.13
MississippiSEC0.002.0175.0051.780.000.07
Missouri St.MVC0.001.9850.0051.620.000.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.001.980.0033.38-0.00-0.66
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.001.980.0028.42-0.00-0.86
ArkansasSEC0.001.98100.0080.480.001.20
Central ArkansasSlnd12.501.950.0023.94-12.50-1.01
MissouriSEC0.001.9440.0035.25-0.00-0.57
Loyola MarymountWCC12.501.920.0024.10-12.50-0.99
San DiegoWCC12.501.9266.6748.804.17-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC12.501.89100.0060.8512.500.41
LipscombASun0.000.300.0042.35-0.00-0.05
PortlandWCC0.000.28100.0050.900.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.2775.0044.920.00-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.2750.0065.470.000.08
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.2325.0040.73-0.00-0.04
DrakeMVC2.080.2325.0027.00-1.04-0.11
EvansvilleMVC0.000.2366.6762.900.000.06
New OrleansSlnd0.000.190.0036.60-0.00-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.000.1950.0043.100.00-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.18100.0047.350.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.1766.6769.270.000.07
GonzagaWCC0.000.17100.0085.190.000.12
Wichita St.MVC0.000.16100.0083.950.000.11
KentuckySEC0.000.16100.0089.550.000.12
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.160.0047.30-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.14100.0042.270.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.140.0019.97-0.00-0.08
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.140.0032.98-0.00-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.000.1433.3346.41-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.14100.0044.550.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.1433.3330.38-0.00-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.000.1466.6754.750.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.14100.0071.500.000.06
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1466.6763.740.000.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1433.3340.34-0.00-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1433.3345.50-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.1325.0048.23-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE1.250.13100.0060.561.250.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.130.0066.91-0.000.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1366.6749.540.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.130.0042.64-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1375.0055.300.000.01
XavierBE0.000.13100.0079.400.000.08
BradleyMVC0.000.1350.0030.030.00-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1350.0041.110.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.13100.0073.990.000.06
DaytonA100.000.1375.0071.680.000.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.130.0046.74-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.130.0031.72-0.00-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.000.1280.0058.990.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.12100.0052.850.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.1250.0035.490.00-0.04
FloridaSEC0.000.1266.6771.550.000.05
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1275.0055.820.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.1260.0056.190.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1275.0067.070.000.04
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1240.0050.32-0.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.11100.0053.790.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.1075.0047.410.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.1050.0037.650.00-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1025.0037.50-0.00-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.10100.0059.140.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.100.0035.37-0.00-0.03
ButlerBE0.000.10100.0058.780.000.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.100.0034.32-0.00-0.03
NebraskaB101.250.1075.0053.250.620.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1033.3340.07-0.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.100.0022.61-0.00-0.06
IllinoisB100.000.10100.0065.710.000.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1020.0031.41-0.00-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1025.0036.61-0.00-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1066.6757.980.000.02
OhioMAC0.000.1066.6752.600.000.01
Wright St.Horz2.080.1066.6756.780.690.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.1075.0064.740.000.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0950.0065.510.000.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.090.0031.74-0.00-0.03
CampbellBSth0.000.070.0031.79-0.00-0.03
IPFWSum0.000.0766.6761.780.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.07100.0048.940.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0716.6731.76-0.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.070.0020.75-0.00-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0720.0043.52-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.070.0017.79-0.00-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.070.0064.97-0.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.070.0040.78-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.070.0038.95-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0720.0030.80-0.00-0.03
Boise St.MWC3.650.0780.0063.112.190.02
BrownIvy0.000.0720.0038.78-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0725.0020.71-0.00-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0714.2929.93-0.00-0.03
SamfordSC0.000.0740.0040.15-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.07100.0051.400.000.00
USCP120.000.0750.0028.900.00-0.03
Western MichiganMAC1.560.0766.6753.920.520.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0766.6751.550.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0740.0033.07-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0760.0066.000.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0775.0064.660.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0720.0045.09-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0766.6760.350.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0750.0030.040.00-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0720.0050.95-0.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0675.0054.260.000.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0057.870.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0666.6738.430.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0625.0046.58-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6749.780.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth1.250.0666.6754.260.420.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.060.0066.25-0.000.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0025.45-0.00-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.06100.0053.250.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0625.0037.60-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.060.0067.43-0.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0633.3349.98-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0633.3354.56-0.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0666.6756.850.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0055.110.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.04100.0049.350.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0450.0031.510.00-0.01
Arizona St.P122.080.0360.0054.250.420.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0065.600.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.54-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC1.560.030.0021.34-1.56-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0038.35-0.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0340.0031.23-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0081.280.000.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.03100.0087.570.000.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0035.72-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0020.18-0.00-0.02
StanfordP120.000.0380.0070.420.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0375.0045.460.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0375.0059.380.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3367.26-0.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0029.35-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0057.70-0.000.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0065.220.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0046.09-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0366.6766.590.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0360.0059.230.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0340.0033.22-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0320.0026.30-0.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0320.0042.26-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0340.0060.63-0.000.01
VCUA100.000.0380.0073.820.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0075.610.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0333.3345.79-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0057.160.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0036.25-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0366.6769.740.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0024.22-0.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0070.940.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0079.500.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0350.0067.350.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum1.250.0350.0049.860.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.0056.280.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0051.20-0.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0320.0029.38-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0074.680.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.0333.3344.17-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0333.3350.48-0.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0050.770.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0075.900.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0350.0043.080.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.0360.0063.180.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0380.0067.040.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0048.890.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0070.870.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0325.0025.51-0.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0375.0065.600.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0052.120.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3346.11-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0375.0073.890.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0375.0063.470.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0366.6739.910.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0340.0066.55-0.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0366.6750.600.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0360.0047.180.00-0.00