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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Southeast Missouri St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:289.0
Current RPI:289
Expected SOS:309
Current SOS:309
Current Record:11-17
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:7-10
Expected Conf Record:7-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-7
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:311
Expected OOC SOS:339



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-17289.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southeast Missouri St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Loyola Marymount (268.0)WCCA76-66L0%0.0
11-15San Diego (157.0)WCCN67-56L0%0.0
11-22Central Arkansas (349.0)SlndA68-74W100%0.0
11-25Bowling Green (109.0)MACA62-54L0%0.0
11-29Alabama A&M (330.0)SWACH85-51W100%0.0
12-2Missouri (218.0)SECA65-61L0%0.0
12-6Southeastern Louisiana (329.0)SlndH63-59W100%0.0
12-10Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCH55-54W100%0.0
12-13Missouri St. (246.0)MVCH61-73L0%0.0
12-20Arkansas (19.0)SECA84-67L0%0.0
12-22Mississippi (60.0)SECN82-51L0%0.0
1-1Belmont (105.0)OVCA78-77L0%0.0
1-3Tennessee St. (341.0)OVCA62-77W100%0.0
1-8Morehead St. (201.0)OVCH57-70L0%0.0
1-10Eastern Kentucky (156.0)OVCH55-68L0%0.0
1-14Jacksonville St. (304.0)OVCA52-69W100%0.0
1-17Tennessee Tech (290.0)OVCH65-61W100%0.0
1-24Tennessee Martin (177.0)OVCA70-53L0%0.0
1-29SIU Edwardsville (292.0)OVCH61-75L0%0.0
1-31Austin Peay (318.0)OVCA64-70W100%0.0
2-5Murray St. (63.0)OVCA82-72L0%0.0
2-7Eastern Illinois (173.0)OVCH68-64W100%0.0
2-12Tennessee Martin (177.0)OVCH98-76W100%0.0
2-14Murray St. (63.0)OVCH92-94L0%0.0
2-19SIU Edwardsville (292.0)OVCA75-72L0%0.0
2-22Eastern Illinois (173.0)OVCA73-65L0%0.0
2-28Austin Peay (318.0)OVCH89-65W100%0.0
3-4Morehead St. (201.0)OVCN79-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southeast Missouri St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southeast Missouri St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southeast Missouri St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southeast Missouri St.OVC26.2226.2238.8938.89-5.83-5.83
Murray St.OVC4.444.4482.1482.142.862.86
Eastern IllinoisOVC4.424.4251.8551.850.160.16
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC4.374.3733.3333.33-1.46-1.46
Morehead St.OVC4.354.3543.3343.33-0.58-0.58
Austin PeayOVC4.344.3423.0823.08-2.34-2.34
Tennessee MartinOVC4.344.3457.6957.690.670.67
BelmontOVC2.622.6266.6766.670.870.87
Tennessee St.OVC2.522.5210.7110.71-1.98-1.98
Tennessee TechOVC2.522.5237.0437.04-0.65-0.65
Jacksonville St.OVC2.492.4935.7135.71-0.71-0.71
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.492.4959.2659.260.460.46
Southern IllinoisMVC2.132.1335.4835.48-0.62-0.62
Missouri St.MVC1.931.9328.5728.57-0.83-0.83
MississippiSEC1.931.9361.2961.290.440.44
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.911.9126.6726.67-0.89-0.89
Alabama A&MSWAC1.911.9129.6329.63-0.78-0.78
ArkansasSEC1.901.9075.7675.760.980.98
Central ArkansasSlnd1.901.907.147.14-1.63-1.63
MissouriSEC1.871.8723.3323.33-1.00-1.00
Loyola MarymountWCC1.851.8520.6920.69-1.08-1.08
San DiegoWCC1.851.8544.8344.83-0.19-0.19
Bowling GreenMAC1.821.8265.5265.520.560.56
LipscombASun0.280.2839.2939.29-0.06-0.06
PortlandWCC0.250.2550.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.240.2446.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.240.2462.5062.500.060.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.210.2160.0060.000.040.04
DrakeMVC0.210.2126.6726.67-0.10-0.10
EvansvilleMVC0.210.2160.0060.000.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.190.1946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.180.1830.7730.77-0.07-0.07
Wichita St.MVC0.180.1887.1087.100.130.13
KentuckySEC0.170.17100.00100.000.170.17
Mississippi St.SEC0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
BYUWCC0.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
Ball St.MAC0.150.1520.6920.69-0.09-0.09
PepperdineWCC0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.150.1540.7440.74-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.150.1593.9493.940.130.13
Northwestern St.Slnd0.150.1555.5655.560.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.150.1568.7568.750.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
North FloridaASun0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.130.1317.2417.24-0.08-0.08
NebraskaB100.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.120.1286.6786.670.090.09
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
UC DavisBW0.120.1279.3179.310.070.07
TroySB0.120.1229.6329.63-0.05-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1262.9662.960.030.03
CreightonBE0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1283.3383.330.080.08
Northern KentuckyASun0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
East Tennessee St.SC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.120.1226.9226.92-0.06-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1252.9452.940.010.01
PacificWCC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.120.1268.9768.970.050.05
San FranciscoWCC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
BradleyMVC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1290.9190.910.100.10
DaytonA100.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
AlabamaSEC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
AuburnSEC0.110.1141.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
FloridaSEC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1071.4371.430.040.04
Saint LouisA100.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0935.7135.71-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
IllinoisB100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0972.4172.410.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.090.0930.0030.00-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
IPFWSum0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.060.0637.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0618.7518.75-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
USCP120.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0675.8675.860.030.03
TulaneAmer0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0658.3358.330.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0642.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
AkronMAC0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
HoustonAmer0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
OklahomaB120.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
AmericanPat0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Green BayHorz0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
OaklandHorz0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
UABCUSA0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.030.03
Washington St.P120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
StanfordP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00