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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Southeast Missouri St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:274.0
Current RPI:274
Expected SOS:319
Current SOS:319
Current Record:13-18
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:10-8
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-8
Current OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:342
Expected OOC SOS:343



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-18274.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southeast Missouri St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Illinois (62.0)B10A81-62L0%0.0
11-16Western Illinois (325.0)SumA71-74W100%0.0
11-18Bradley (220.0)MVCA84-78L0%0.0
11-22UT Rio Grande Valley (319.0)WACH83-72W100%0.0
11-28UMKC (184.0)WACA86-75L0%0.0
12-1Central Arkansas (313.0)SlndH87-63W100%0.0
12-4Indiana (79.0)B10A83-55L0%0.0
12-7Missouri St. (210.0)MVCH71-79L0%0.0
12-10Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzH66-80L0%0.0
12-17Missouri St. (210.0)MVCA71-66L0%0.0
12-19DePaul (239.0)BEA81-78L0%0.0
12-22Chicago St. (318.0)WACN65-74L0%0.0
12-23Cornell (270.0)IvyN78-62L0%0.0
12-31Eastern Kentucky (247.0)OVCH81-48W100%0.0
1-5Tennessee St. (162.0)OVCA65-62L0%0.0
1-7Belmont (61.0)OVCA87-75L0%0.0
1-10Tennessee Tech (277.0)OVCH83-78W100%0.0
1-14Tennessee Martin (164.0)OVCA79-69L0%0.0
1-19SIU Edwardsville (333.0)OVCH79-76W100%0.0
1-21Eastern Illinois (265.0)OVCH83-71W100%0.0
1-26Murray St. (230.0)OVCA74-75W100%0.0
1-28Austin Peay (261.0)OVCA71-82W100%0.0
2-1Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCA74-62L0%0.0
2-4Morehead St. (200.0)OVCH81-89L0%0.0
2-9SIU Edwardsville (333.0)OVCA67-71W100%0.0
2-11Eastern Illinois (265.0)OVCA86-80L0%0.0
2-18Tennessee Martin (164.0)OVCH90-61W100%0.0
2-23Murray St. (230.0)OVCH82-69W100%0.0
2-25Austin Peay (261.0)OVCH79-88L0%0.0
3-1Tennessee St. (162.0)OVCN78-75W100%0.0
3-2Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCN74-51L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southeast Missouri St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southeast Missouri St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southeast Missouri St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southeast Missouri St.OVC26.2826.2842.8642.86-3.75-3.75
Tennessee MartinOVC4.064.0662.0762.070.980.98
Murray St.OVC4.044.0448.2848.28-0.14-0.14
Eastern IllinoisOVC4.004.0044.0044.00-0.48-0.48
Jacksonville St.OVC3.983.9853.3353.330.270.27
Austin PeayOVC3.943.9430.7730.77-1.52-1.52
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC3.913.9119.2319.23-2.41-2.41
Tennessee St.OVC3.833.8353.8553.850.290.29
Missouri St.MVC3.403.4046.6746.67-0.23-0.23
Morehead St.OVC2.382.3840.7440.74-0.44-0.44
Tennessee TechOVC2.332.3334.4834.48-0.72-0.72
BelmontOVC2.332.3376.9276.921.251.25
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.282.2835.7135.71-0.65-0.65
UMKCWAC1.861.8644.8344.83-0.19-0.19
Chicago St.WAC1.851.857.147.14-1.59-1.59
BradleyMVC1.801.8035.4835.48-0.52-0.52
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.801.8025.0025.00-0.90-0.90
Northern KentuckyHorz1.791.7967.7467.740.630.63
Western IllinoisSum1.761.7624.0024.00-0.92-0.92
IndianaB101.751.7553.1253.120.110.11
DePaulBE1.741.7425.8125.81-0.84-0.84
IllinoisB101.661.6653.3353.330.110.11
Central ArkansasSlnd1.641.6425.8125.81-0.79-0.79
CornellIvy1.611.6122.2222.22-0.90-0.90
Southern IllinoisMVC0.310.3150.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.290.2945.1645.16-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.290.2956.6756.670.040.04
Illinois St.MVC0.260.2681.2581.250.160.16
DrakeMVC0.230.2320.6920.69-0.13-0.13
Wichita St.MVC0.230.2387.8887.880.170.17
Grand CanyonWAC0.220.2268.9768.970.080.08
New Mexico St.WAC0.220.2283.3383.330.150.15
Indiana St.MVC0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Fort WayneSum0.200.2057.1457.140.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.200.2044.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.190.1955.1755.170.020.02
TroySB0.180.1858.8258.820.030.03
IUPUISum0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.160.1667.8667.860.060.06
SeattleWAC0.160.1637.0437.04-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.160.1629.4129.41-0.07-0.07
Alabama A&MSWAC0.160.166.906.90-0.13-0.13
NorthwesternB100.150.1567.6567.650.050.05
WisconsinB100.150.1573.5373.530.070.07
MichiganB100.150.1568.5768.570.060.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
Saint LouisA100.150.1536.3636.36-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.140.1430.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.140.1487.8887.880.110.11
Arkansas St.SB0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
PurdueB100.130.1378.1278.120.080.08
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
MississippiSEC0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
IowaB100.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
DetroitHorz0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Wright St.Horz0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
MarylandB100.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
South DakotaSum0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.1160.7160.710.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
CanisiusMAAC0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
DelawareCAA0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Penn St.B100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
MissouriSEC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Texas St.SB0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
USCP120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
OaklandHorz0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Michigan St.B100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
CreightonBE0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
TCUB120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
BrownIvy0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
DukeACC0.060.0677.1477.140.030.03
HarvardIvy0.060.0661.5461.540.010.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.060.0678.5778.570.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
StetsonASun0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
YaleIvy0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
SamfordSC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AmericanPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
LafayettePat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01