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Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


Southeast Missouri St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:332.1
Current RPI:328
Expected SOS:247
Current SOS:220
Current Record:3-19
Expected Record:4-23
Current Conf Record:2-9
Expected Conf Record:3-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-11
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:319
Expected OOC SOS:202



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-19287.60.07%
7-20301.80.81%
6-21316.18.06%
5-22327.428.17%
4-23335.041.72%
3-24339.921.16%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southeast Missouri St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Dayton (13.2)A10A84-53L0%0.0
11-15Evansville (74.7)MVCA80-65L0%0.0
11-19Alabama A&M (306.8)SWACA74-56L0%0.0
11-24UT Rio Grande Valley (340.8)WACA83-74L0%0.0
11-28Loyola Marymount (242.9)WCCH60-73L0%0.0
12-2Southern Illinois (138.9)MVCA74-50L0%0.0
12-5Memphis (113.6)AmerA80-65L0%0.0
12-8Bowling Green (193.4)MACH52-79L0%0.0
12-12Mississippi (111.1)SECH64-75L0%0.0
12-19Northern Kentucky (245.7)HorzA79-69L0%0.0
12-22Missouri St. (236.3)MVCA74-78W100%0.0
12-31Belmont (84.1)OVCH82-92L0%0.0
1-2Tennessee St. (163.9)OVCH66-72L0%0.0
1-7Morehead St. (161.7)OVCA96-69L0%0.0
1-9Eastern Kentucky (197.3)OVCA88-69L0%0.0
1-13Jacksonville St. (304.6)OVCH60-74L0%0.0
1-16Tennessee Tech (97.9)OVCA91-55L0%0.0
1-24Tennessee Martin (241.8)OVCH68-60W100%0.0
1-28SIU Edwardsville (318.8)OVCA51-58W100%0.0
1-30Austin Peay (240.7)OVCH80-86L0%0.0
2-4Murray St. (186.9)OVCH72-78L0%0.0
2-6Eastern Illinois (255.4)OVCA78-69L0%0.0
2-11Tennessee Martin (241.8)OVCA0-014%-11.8
2-13Murray St. (186.9)OVCA0-08%-15.0
2-18SIU Edwardsville (318.8)OVCH0-050%0.0
2-20Eastern Illinois (255.4)OVCH0-037%-3.6
2-27Austin Peay (240.7)OVCA0-017%-10.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southeast Missouri St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southeast Missouri St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southeast Missouri St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southeast Missouri St.OVC26.1126.2116.0417.59-17.74-16.99
Murray St.OVC2.924.5242.8646.01-0.42-0.36
Tennessee MartinOVC2.774.4750.0050.670.000.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.824.4618.1820.33-1.79-2.65
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.824.4638.1040.50-0.67-0.85
Austin PeayOVC2.774.4434.7836.76-0.84-1.17
Jacksonville St.OVC2.882.5821.7421.65-1.63-1.46
BelmontOVC2.822.5565.2265.350.860.78
Morehead St.OVC2.822.5447.6250.52-0.130.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.772.5250.0048.530.00-0.07
Tennessee St.OVC2.722.5165.0061.190.810.56
Tennessee TechOVC2.772.5166.6765.400.920.77
Southern IllinoisMVC2.472.1170.8369.531.030.82
EvansvilleMVC2.582.1173.9175.411.231.07
Alabama A&MSWAC2.421.9833.3340.61-0.81-0.37
Missouri St.MVC2.411.9740.9139.07-0.44-0.43
Northern KentuckyHorz2.381.9530.0032.59-0.95-0.68
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.321.9210.0012.07-1.86-1.45
Loyola MarymountWCC2.321.8836.3636.29-0.63-0.52
MemphisAmer2.321.8859.0959.470.420.36
MississippiSEC2.321.8863.6457.650.630.29
Bowling GreenMAC2.271.8550.0045.150.00-0.18
DaytonA102.271.8585.7181.771.621.18
Illinois St.MVC0.350.3254.1750.940.030.01
Saint LouisA100.310.2936.3633.47-0.08-0.10
Indiana St.MVC0.240.2552.1751.960.010.01
Green BayHorz0.260.2454.5556.000.020.03
DrakeMVC0.200.2221.7423.66-0.11-0.11
BradleyMVC0.240.2212.5012.85-0.18-0.16
MilwaukeeHorz0.210.2059.0959.640.040.04
HoustonAmer0.160.2069.5766.530.060.07
LipscombASun0.250.2025.0029.27-0.12-0.08
IPFWSum0.140.1970.8368.570.060.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.190.1943.4842.62-0.02-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.190.1954.1755.070.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.240.1972.7376.360.110.10
Alcorn St.SWAC0.160.1740.0040.30-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.160.1756.5257.000.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.210.1763.6459.220.060.03
IndianaB100.150.1779.1774.020.090.08
ValparaisoHorz0.200.1681.8283.040.130.11
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.1640.9140.65-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.160.1482.6181.140.100.09
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1427.7829.14-0.05-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.220.1420.0022.32-0.13-0.08
Grambling St.SWAC0.160.1415.0018.08-0.11-0.09
UMKCWAC0.100.1428.5732.70-0.04-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.150.1371.4369.420.070.05
PepperdineWCC0.100.1356.5257.280.010.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.1328.5733.37-0.07-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.150.1350.0051.180.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.160.1321.7422.73-0.09-0.07
North FloridaASun0.150.1365.2267.160.050.04
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1342.8639.19-0.01-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.210.1331.8230.47-0.08-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1361.9056.690.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.150.1339.1341.12-0.03-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.1376.1972.290.050.06
ArkansasSEC0.150.1352.1755.940.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.150.1256.5260.010.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1150.0054.210.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1165.2268.620.030.04
Chicago St.WAC0.100.104.357.73-0.09-0.09
Portland St.BSky0.100.1031.5837.72-0.04-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.110.1061.9065.300.030.03
DetroitHorz0.110.1047.6245.85-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1030.4332.36-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.150.1059.0959.350.030.02
OaklandHorz0.150.1068.0067.980.060.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.150.1045.4546.27-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.110.1061.9059.450.030.02
ButlerBE0.100.1069.5767.170.040.03
BYUWCC0.150.1066.6769.510.050.04
ChattanoogaSC0.150.1086.9686.690.110.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.1030.4331.18-0.04-0.04
PortlandWCC0.140.1040.0038.51-0.03-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.160.1050.0051.190.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.1028.5726.96-0.04-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1045.8342.26-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.090.1041.6742.60-0.02-0.01
TulaneAmer0.110.1033.3332.31-0.04-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0922.7327.19-0.05-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.100.0963.6459.460.030.02
TroySB0.100.0923.8126.67-0.05-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.150.0959.0953.040.030.01
CincinnatiAmer0.150.0970.8370.840.060.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.0724.0025.69-0.06-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0766.6767.690.020.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.079.0917.12-0.05-0.05
SeattleWAC0.050.0747.6245.00-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0745.4554.11-0.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.0733.3334.94-0.04-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.075.007.23-0.05-0.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0756.5256.320.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0725.0033.17-0.03-0.02
StetsonASun0.110.0723.8127.69-0.06-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.050.0765.0069.270.020.03
Utah St.MWC0.100.0745.0046.78-0.01-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.0721.7423.39-0.06-0.04
ToledoMAC0.110.0759.0960.100.020.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.0735.0032.27-0.03-0.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0728.5729.64-0.02-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.100.0778.2676.800.060.04
NorthwesternB100.050.0766.6763.440.020.02
PacificWCC0.050.0725.0028.89-0.02-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0785.7185.390.040.05
San DiegoWCC0.100.0731.8229.13-0.04-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0754.5550.100.000.00
USCP120.050.0778.2673.050.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.100.0752.1751.940.000.00
DavidsonA100.100.0760.0057.950.020.01
IowaB100.100.0782.6180.590.070.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.0743.4850.66-0.010.00
West VirginiaB120.100.0782.6179.560.060.04
XavierBE0.110.0791.3084.340.090.04
Air ForceMWC0.100.0645.4538.46-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.100.0631.5831.99-0.04-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0647.8346.89-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.100.0672.7371.620.040.03
AkronMAC0.000.0681.8280.030.000.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0631.8236.15-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0659.0958.870.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0630.0034.56-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0640.9145.29-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0670.8369.500.020.02
Texas TechB120.050.0659.0953.170.010.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0633.3335.47-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0643.4846.23-0.01-0.00
IUPUISum0.100.0640.0039.79-0.02-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0665.2261.430.020.01
DuquesneA100.050.0663.6456.440.010.01
La SalleA100.100.0620.0020.45-0.06-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.0656.5256.630.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0671.4368.950.020.02
George MasonA100.100.0634.7834.14-0.03-0.02
KentuckySEC0.090.0673.9171.560.050.03
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0642.8642.01-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.100.0640.9139.35-0.02-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0640.9136.60-0.01-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.100.0673.9172.490.050.03
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0643.4842.00-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0665.2266.070.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.0671.4368.720.040.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0634.7830.38-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.090.0633.3333.02-0.03-0.02
SMUAmer0.050.0690.9186.160.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.100.0686.3679.140.070.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0620.0019.67-0.03-0.04
TempleAmer0.050.0663.6459.840.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0652.3845.690.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0445.0046.12-0.01-0.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0430.0029.25-0.02-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0481.8276.750.030.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0463.6462.150.010.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0438.8938.50-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0334.7837.17-0.02-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0369.5766.240.020.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0329.1733.14-0.02-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0376.1968.210.030.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0328.0030.74-0.02-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0328.5731.26-0.02-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0363.6462.530.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0328.5728.54-0.02-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0352.3850.420.000.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0361.9056.420.010.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0345.8341.65-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0354.1751.640.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0336.8441.40-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0347.6252.07-0.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0350.0049.850.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0362.5056.200.010.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0326.0927.81-0.02-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0327.7834.19-0.02-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0347.3749.98-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0363.1658.810.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0333.3334.19-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0382.6179.410.030.02
UMBCAE0.050.0324.0026.33-0.03-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0354.1749.230.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0365.0063.440.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.64-0.03-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0355.0052.260.010.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0361.9059.630.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0354.1754.070.000.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0378.2674.430.030.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0322.7324.96-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0379.1780.720.030.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0375.0070.940.020.01
RichmondA100.000.0354.5554.490.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0382.6178.890.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0338.1037.70-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0352.1754.150.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0315.0015.35-0.03-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0376.1973.410.020.01
VCUA100.000.0373.9173.910.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0371.4369.860.020.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0325.0025.09-0.02-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0340.0039.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0357.8956.080.010.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0360.8758.370.010.00
LSUSEC0.050.0365.2260.250.020.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0318.1821.06-0.03-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0317.6526.67-0.03-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0358.3354.120.010.00
OklahomaB120.050.0386.9682.610.040.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0345.0049.42-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0373.9169.840.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0378.2678.050.000.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0365.2259.750.020.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0366.6770.550.020.01