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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Southeast Missouri St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:257.0
Current RPI:257
Expected SOS:340
Current SOS:340
Current Record:16-14
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:9-9
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-6
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:227
Expected OOC SOS:346



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14257.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southeast Missouri St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Saint Louis (27.0)A10A87-64L0%0.0
11-16IUPUI (322.0)SumA68-76W100%0.0
11-18Ball St. (309.0)MACA87-83L0%0.0
11-29Northern Kentucky (310.0)ASunN65-79W100%0.0
11-30Tulane (223.0)CUSAN72-102W100%0.0
12-1Texas St. (307.0)SBN82-74W100%0.0
12-7Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndA73-74W100%0.0
12-14UIC (315.0)HorzH69-75L0%0.0
12-21Memphis (37.0)AmerA77-65L0%0.0
12-23IUPUI (322.0)SumH83-79W100%0.0
12-29Missouri St. (85.0)MVCA81-78L0%0.0
1-2Murray St. (142.0)OVCA82-75L0%0.0
1-4Austin Peay (305.0)OVCA80-74L0%0.0
1-9Belmont (57.0)OVCH94-107L0%0.0
1-11Tennessee St. (300.0)OVCH102-94W100%0.0
1-16Morehead St. (141.0)OVCA80-67L0%0.0
1-18Tennessee Tech (215.0)OVCA74-83W100%0.0
1-23SIU Edwardsville (320.0)OVCH82-78W100%0.0
1-25Eastern Illinois (291.0)OVCH74-77L0%0.0
1-29UMKC (248.0)WACH91-81W100%0.0
2-1Eastern Kentucky (97.0)OVCA79-78L0%0.0
2-6SIU Edwardsville (320.0)OVCA93-88L0%0.0
2-8Eastern Illinois (291.0)OVCA68-74W100%0.0
2-12Tennessee Martin (332.0)OVCH70-79L0%0.0
2-20Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCH87-70W100%0.0
2-22Tennessee Martin (332.0)OVCA74-77W100%0.0
2-27Austin Peay (305.0)OVCH83-80W100%0.0
3-1Murray St. (142.0)OVCH118-115W100%0.0
3-5Eastern Illinois (291.0)OVCN79-61W100%0.0
3-6Eastern Kentucky (97.0)OVCN84-76L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southeast Missouri St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southeast Missouri St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southeast Missouri St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southeast Missouri St.OVC26.3826.3855.8855.883.103.10
Eastern IllinoisOVC5.695.6932.0032.00-2.05-2.05
Tennessee MartinOVC4.154.1518.5218.52-2.61-2.61
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC4.114.1129.6329.63-1.68-1.68
Murray St.OVC4.114.1160.0060.000.820.82
Austin PeayOVC4.084.0834.6234.62-1.26-1.26
Eastern KentuckyOVC4.024.0268.9768.971.531.53
IUPUISum3.333.3311.1111.11-2.59-2.59
Tennessee TechOVC2.402.4050.0050.000.000.00
BelmontOVC2.402.4070.9770.971.011.01
Morehead St.OVC2.402.4056.6756.670.320.32
Jacksonville St.OVC2.322.3228.5728.57-0.99-0.99
Tennessee St.OVC2.322.3214.2914.29-1.65-1.65
Northern KentuckyASun1.811.8131.0331.03-0.68-0.68
UICHorz1.761.7610.7110.71-1.38-1.38
MemphisAmer1.731.7370.0070.000.690.69
Saint LouisA101.721.7280.0080.001.031.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.721.7232.0032.00-0.62-0.62
UMKCWAC1.721.7235.7135.71-0.49-0.49
TulaneCUSA1.721.7251.6151.610.060.06
Texas St.SB1.721.7221.4321.43-0.98-0.98
Ball St.MAC1.671.677.417.41-1.42-1.42
Missouri St.MVC1.671.6760.0060.000.330.33
IPFWSum0.490.4967.7467.740.170.17
LipscombASun0.340.3448.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.340.3467.7467.740.120.12
Southern IllinoisMVC0.290.2940.6240.62-0.05-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.240.2425.9325.93-0.11-0.11
Central MichiganMAC0.230.2327.5927.59-0.10-0.10
Chicago St.WAC0.230.2336.6736.67-0.06-0.06
East Tennessee St.ASun0.230.2353.1253.120.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.210.2161.2961.290.050.05
ValparaisoHorz0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.200.2056.2556.250.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.200.2041.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.190.1929.0329.03-0.08-0.08
Nicholls St.Slnd0.180.1846.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.180.1863.3363.330.050.05
NorthwesternB100.180.1842.4242.42-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
South DakotaSum0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.170.1757.1457.140.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.170.1762.0762.070.040.04
ChattanoogaSC0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1448.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Old DominionCUSA0.140.1448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.140.14100.00100.000.140.14
VCUA100.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
AuburnSEC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1156.6756.670.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.1178.5778.570.070.07
Oral RobertsSlnd0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.1143.3343.33-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
SMUAmer0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
LouisvilleAmer0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
LamarSlnd0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0924.0024.00-0.05-0.05
MissouriSEC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
MarquetteBE0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
IdahoWAC0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Green BayHorz0.080.0877.7877.780.050.05
USC UpstateASun0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
FIUCUSA0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
TulsaCUSA0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0693.1093.100.050.05
AkronMAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
LSUSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
UtahP120.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
RiceCUSA0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
DetroitHorz0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0634.6234.62-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
OaklandHorz0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
SeattleWAC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
North FloridaASun0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
NavyPat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
WoffordSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00