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Through games of Jan 31, 2015.


Southeast Missouri St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:274.2
Current RPI:297
Expected SOS:285
Current SOS:336
Current Record:8-12
Expected Record:11-16
Current Conf Record:4-5
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:305
Expected OOC SOS:324



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-12202.00.01%
14-13218.60.75%
13-14234.85.19%
12-15252.517.48%
11-16269.931.27%
10-17286.030.04%
9-18299.113.18%
8-19308.82.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southeast Missouri St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Loyola Marymount (232.7)WCCA76-66L0%0.0
11-15San Diego (152.5)WCCN67-56L0%0.0
11-22Central Arkansas (349.4)SlndA68-74W100%0.0
11-25Bowling Green (83.2)MACA62-54L0%0.0
11-29Alabama A&M (329.6)SWACH85-51W100%0.0
12-2Missouri (199.1)SECA65-61L0%0.0
12-6Southeastern Louisiana (280.2)SlndH63-59W100%0.0
12-10Southern Illinois (270.1)MVCH55-54W100%0.0
12-13Missouri St. (211.0)MVCH61-73L0%0.0
12-20Arkansas (36.1)SECA84-67L0%0.0
12-22Mississippi (50.6)SECN82-51L0%0.0
1-1Belmont (124.1)OVCA78-77L0%0.0
1-3Tennessee St. (336.1)OVCA62-77W100%0.0
1-8Morehead St. (222.2)OVCH57-70L0%0.0
1-10Eastern Kentucky (155.3)OVCH55-68L0%0.0
1-14Jacksonville St. (313.2)OVCA52-69W100%0.0
1-17Tennessee Tech (251.0)OVCH65-61W100%0.0
1-24Tennessee Martin (159.5)OVCA70-53L0%0.0
1-29SIU Edwardsville (291.9)OVCH61-75L0%0.0
1-31Austin Peay (306.0)OVCA64-70W100%0.0
2-5Murray St. (69.8)OVCA0-08%-15.6
2-7Eastern Illinois (158.0)OVCH0-055%1.3
2-12Tennessee Martin (159.5)OVCH0-041%-2.5
2-14Murray St. (69.8)OVCH0-021%-8.7
2-19SIU Edwardsville (291.9)OVCA0-037%-3.6
2-21Eastern Illinois (158.0)OVCA0-031%-5.5
2-28Austin Peay (306.0)OVCH0-074%7.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southeast Missouri St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southeast Missouri St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southeast Missouri St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southeast Missouri St.OVC26.2426.2341.6739.75-4.37-5.38
Murray St.OVC0.624.5280.9581.710.382.87
Austin PeayOVC2.974.5226.3225.26-1.41-2.23
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.614.4857.1454.500.090.40
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.984.4733.3333.75-0.99-1.45
Tennessee MartinOVC2.804.4555.5658.700.310.77
Tennessee St.OVC2.922.5915.0015.31-2.04-1.79
Tennessee TechOVC3.072.5840.0042.46-0.61-0.39
Jacksonville St.OVC3.012.5633.3330.95-1.00-0.97
Morehead St.OVC2.952.5633.3341.11-0.98-0.45
BelmontOVC2.872.5265.0063.650.860.69
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.802.5250.0058.960.000.45
Southern IllinoisMVC2.872.1938.1036.84-0.68-0.58
MississippiSEC2.682.0165.0063.540.810.54
Alabama A&MSWAC2.631.9825.0030.35-1.31-0.78
Missouri St.MVC2.611.9831.5833.29-0.96-0.66
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.621.9822.2239.23-1.46-0.43
ArkansasSEC2.621.9775.0070.511.310.81
Central ArkansasSlnd2.561.950.003.43-2.56-1.81
MissouriSEC2.621.9426.3226.18-1.24-0.92
Loyola MarymountWCC2.561.9223.8124.77-1.34-0.97
San DiegoWCC2.561.9247.6245.97-0.12-0.15
Bowling GreenMAC2.571.8970.5967.531.060.66
LipscombASun0.430.2936.8439.41-0.11-0.06
PortlandWCC0.180.2750.0049.030.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.190.2661.9062.150.050.06
Indiana St.MVC0.180.2647.6244.77-0.01-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.250.2368.4266.670.090.08
DrakeMVC0.130.2323.8124.55-0.07-0.12
EvansvilleMVC0.180.2371.4366.420.080.07
New OrleansSlnd0.180.1921.4334.17-0.10-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.300.1965.0055.020.090.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.1845.0037.75-0.01-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.130.1735.0045.71-0.04-0.01
BYUWCC0.180.1668.1868.210.070.06
Wichita St.MVC0.180.1685.7185.840.130.11
GonzagaWCC0.180.1695.4594.860.160.14
KentuckySEC0.250.16100.0098.420.250.15
Northwestern St.Slnd0.130.1643.7551.40-0.020.00
Chicago St.WAC0.190.1410.0014.17-0.15-0.10
UC DavisBW0.000.1477.7869.520.000.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.1315.7921.13-0.05-0.08
Ball St.MAC0.070.1333.3333.68-0.02-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.1338.8936.88-0.02-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.1352.3855.840.010.02
NebraskaB100.190.1357.1448.260.03-0.00
North FloridaASun0.180.1352.3857.760.010.02
ValparaisoHorz0.130.1380.9579.380.080.08
Western MichiganMAC0.190.1357.8955.720.030.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1352.3853.270.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.190.1360.0065.370.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1375.0073.880.060.06
CreightonBE0.130.1343.4838.74-0.02-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.200.1383.3384.640.130.09
XavierBE0.120.1363.6464.030.030.04
TroySB0.190.1333.3333.42-0.06-0.04
BradleyMVC0.180.1327.2726.92-0.08-0.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.1355.0056.280.010.02
Northern IowaMVC0.180.1390.9187.360.140.10
PacificWCC0.170.1335.0030.78-0.05-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.110.1361.9060.760.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.170.1376.1971.260.090.05
San FranciscoWCC0.170.1336.3640.39-0.05-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.170.1342.8640.14-0.02-0.03
DaytonA100.260.1380.0077.350.160.07
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.1326.6741.31-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.1313.3317.04-0.05-0.08
AlabamaSEC0.120.1260.0059.190.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1250.0051.140.000.00
AuburnSEC0.060.1245.0037.85-0.01-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.060.1275.0066.870.030.04
FloridaSEC0.120.1257.1456.520.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1270.0064.270.050.03
LSUSEC0.120.1276.1967.840.060.04
South CarolinaSEC0.060.1252.6353.480.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.1175.0072.090.030.05
Saint LouisA100.120.1040.0035.39-0.02-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1033.3332.33-0.04-0.04
MarquetteBE0.140.1047.6243.52-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.130.1072.7371.820.060.04
Arkansas St.SB0.140.1040.0039.46-0.03-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.120.1035.0039.94-0.04-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.120.1015.7915.85-0.08-0.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.1014.2917.22-0.09-0.07
East Tennessee St.SC0.120.1057.8958.650.020.02
OhioMAC0.130.1036.8435.46-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.190.1045.0046.64-0.02-0.01
IllinoisB100.130.1063.6460.730.030.02
Kent St.MAC0.130.1070.0064.720.050.03
Oral RobertsSum0.190.1050.0051.680.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0972.2275.610.030.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0933.3331.62-0.02-0.03
CampbellBSth0.070.0725.0031.87-0.03-0.03
IPFWSum0.070.0742.1144.33-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.070.0750.0046.310.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0731.8237.46-0.03-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0725.0031.77-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.070.005.54-0.07-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0723.8134.41-0.04-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.070.0723.8126.18-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0756.5257.100.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0714.2918.51-0.05-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0768.4275.790.000.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0725.0035.18-0.04-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0747.6258.74-0.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.0715.7923.17-0.08-0.04
AkronMAC0.140.0770.0066.170.060.02
BrownIvy0.060.0736.8435.82-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0770.0068.150.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.130.0758.8258.130.020.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0740.0037.11-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0735.0032.55-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.060.0739.1337.63-0.01-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.130.0635.0037.26-0.04-0.02
USCP120.120.0645.0038.92-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.140.0628.5731.94-0.06-0.02
TulaneAmer0.130.0657.1451.350.020.00
UMKCWAC0.120.0633.3338.47-0.04-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.110.0668.4269.350.040.02
HamptonMEAC0.120.0638.1038.64-0.03-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.110.0620.0024.85-0.07-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.140.0635.7133.63-0.04-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0661.5465.360.020.02
LamarSlnd0.140.0641.1838.51-0.02-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.140.0650.0047.440.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.120.0644.4450.36-0.010.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.130.0655.5654.030.010.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.130.0661.1163.600.030.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.120.0645.0049.35-0.01-0.00
TCUB120.120.0666.6758.520.040.01
OklahomaB120.130.0666.6768.000.040.02
Oklahoma St.B120.130.0665.0059.110.040.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0310.0019.57-0.05-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0337.5041.05-0.02-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0347.6245.06-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.070.0336.3638.81-0.02-0.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0370.0065.890.030.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0331.8234.59-0.02-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0322.2225.53-0.04-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0342.8636.75-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0361.9060.960.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0385.7182.060.040.02
DenverSum0.060.0340.9144.93-0.01-0.00
DetroitHorz0.070.0340.9140.80-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0328.5728.73-0.03-0.01
Texas TechB120.060.0350.0039.860.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0361.9060.170.020.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0380.0073.410.040.02
VCUA100.060.0380.9579.010.040.02
Washington St.P120.060.0347.6239.12-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0336.8436.52-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.060.0352.3854.050.000.00
Arizona St.P120.060.0350.0051.280.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.060.0344.4446.70-0.01-0.00
DePaulBE0.060.0347.8342.09-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.030.003.52-0.06-0.03
Green BayHorz0.060.0375.0075.520.030.02
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0319.0518.75-0.04-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0327.2727.43-0.03-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0376.1974.490.030.02
LouisvilleACC0.060.0385.7180.350.040.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0361.9061.480.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0335.0037.17-0.02-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.070.0366.6763.050.020.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0350.0054.030.000.00
OaklandHorz0.060.0340.0043.84-0.01-0.00
Ohio St.B100.060.0377.2777.460.030.02
PrincetonIvy0.060.0344.4443.51-0.01-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0343.4847.59-0.01-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0376.1976.490.030.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0359.0962.480.010.01
StanfordP120.060.0371.4368.260.020.01
UABCUSA0.060.0347.6251.78-0.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.060.0357.8960.710.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0342.1137.78-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0342.1149.83-0.01-0.00
UCLAP120.060.0359.0957.470.010.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0344.4448.67-0.01-0.00
UNLVMWC0.060.0357.1455.960.010.00
VirginiaACC0.060.0395.0091.130.050.03
ArizonaP120.060.0390.9188.590.050.02
ElonCAA0.060.0342.8641.77-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.060.0363.6460.040.020.01
UCFAmer0.070.0340.0039.33-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.070.0366.6769.240.020.01
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0335.2930.55-0.02-0.01
YaleIvy0.060.0368.4268.150.020.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0361.9054.070.010.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0342.1147.26-0.01-0.00
IonaMAAC0.060.0372.7375.260.030.02
Iowa St.B120.060.0380.0070.910.040.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0338.8934.91-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.060.0366.6761.490.020.01
SMUAmer0.060.0380.9577.890.040.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0336.8436.89-0.02-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.060.0345.4539.76-0.01-0.01