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Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


Southeast Missouri St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:245.5
Current RPI:315
Expected SOS:299
Current SOS:343
Current Record:4-5
Expected Record:13-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-5
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:277
Expected OOC SOS:294



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-7101.50.02%
19-8123.10.14%
18-9140.30.45%
17-10157.61.85%
16-11178.55.67%
15-12199.710.54%
14-13221.917.21%
13-14243.920.59%
12-15263.718.08%
11-16282.713.87%
10-17298.77.13%
9-18311.83.23%
8-19320.81.03%
7-20330.50.15%
6-21336.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southeast Missouri St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Loyola Marymount (255.9)WCCA76-66L0%0.0
11-15San Diego (91.2)WCCN67-56L0%0.0
11-22Central Arkansas (339.0)SlndA68-74W100%0.0
11-25Bowling Green (95.0)MACA62-54L0%0.0
11-29Alabama A&M (331.3)SWACH85-51W100%0.0
12-2Missouri (179.3)SECA65-61L0%0.0
12-6Southeastern Louisiana (238.6)SlndH63-59W100%0.0
12-10Southern Illinois (204.3)MVCH55-54W100%0.0
12-13Missouri St. (193.2)MVCH61-73L0%0.0
12-20Arkansas (42.8)SECA0-06%-18.3
12-22Mississippi (99.2)SECN0-025%-7.8
1-1Belmont (131.1)OVCA0-022%-9.1
1-3Tennessee St. (326.9)OVCA0-065%4.4
1-8Morehead St. (209.0)OVCH0-056%1.7
1-10Eastern Kentucky (174.2)OVCH0-055%1.5
1-14Jacksonville St. (265.9)OVCA0-055%1.5
1-17Tennessee Tech (200.2)OVCH0-063%4.0
1-24Tennessee Martin (144.0)OVCA0-021%-9.4
1-29SIU Edwardsville (330.8)OVCH0-084%11.5
1-31Austin Peay (300.0)OVCA0-051%0.2
2-5Murray St. (161.3)OVCA0-024%-8.2
2-7Eastern Illinois (265.9)OVCH0-072%7.0
2-12Tennessee Martin (144.0)OVCH0-048%-0.7
2-14Murray St. (161.3)OVCH0-052%0.5
2-19SIU Edwardsville (330.8)OVCA0-059%2.8
2-21Eastern Illinois (265.9)OVCA0-044%-1.8
2-28Austin Peay (300.0)OVCH0-078%9.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southeast Missouri St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southeast Missouri St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southeast Missouri St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southeast Missouri St.OVC27.9626.2443.2447.87-3.78-1.12
Murray St.OVC0.004.5255.5661.620.001.05
Austin PeayOVC0.284.5222.2230.59-0.15-1.75
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.354.4833.3338.90-0.12-0.99
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.284.470.0023.97-0.28-2.33
Tennessee MartinOVC0.004.4562.5066.800.001.50
Tennessee St.OVC0.562.590.0016.27-0.56-1.74
Tennessee TechOVC0.622.5850.0050.250.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.462.5655.5638.220.05-0.60
Morehead St.OVC0.002.5618.1846.26-0.00-0.19
BelmontOVC0.002.5260.0061.850.000.60
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.002.5242.8656.08-0.000.31
Southern IllinoisMVC5.562.1966.6751.361.850.06
MississippiSEC0.002.0166.6751.770.000.07
Alabama A&MSWAC5.901.980.0033.33-5.90-0.66
Missouri St.MVC5.561.9828.5737.91-2.38-0.48
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd5.561.9812.5045.44-4.17-0.18
ArkansasSEC0.001.9777.7871.100.000.83
Central ArkansasSlnd5.561.950.0018.34-5.56-1.23
MissouriSEC5.561.9437.5029.30-1.39-0.80
San DiegoWCC5.561.9250.0056.100.000.23
Loyola MarymountWCC5.561.9214.2921.05-3.97-1.11
Bowling GreenMAC6.021.8971.4365.862.580.60
LipscombASun0.000.2925.0042.50-0.00-0.04
PortlandWCC0.000.2766.6748.960.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.2666.6764.900.000.08
Indiana St.MVC0.000.2633.3332.85-0.00-0.09
Western KentuckyCUSA0.350.2355.5648.830.04-0.01
DrakeMVC0.350.2320.0020.14-0.21-0.14
EvansvilleMVC0.000.2375.0070.220.000.09
New OrleansSlnd0.250.190.0038.50-0.25-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.000.1950.0046.160.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1850.0039.320.00-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.000.170.0034.38-0.00-0.05
BYUWCC0.000.1766.6767.780.000.06
GonzagaWCC0.310.1690.0091.070.250.13
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1687.5085.210.000.11
KentuckySEC0.000.16100.0094.670.000.14
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.160.0037.61-0.00-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.280.140.0012.02-0.28-0.10
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.140.0028.64-0.00-0.06
UC DavisBW0.000.1485.7161.530.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.1328.5736.94-0.00-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1350.0033.280.00-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.350.1337.5048.87-0.09-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1333.3363.36-0.000.04
PacificWCC0.000.1342.8638.32-0.00-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.1375.0058.890.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.1371.4357.420.000.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1344.4449.01-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1350.0041.530.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.1344.4456.92-0.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.310.1380.0069.840.190.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1344.4444.99-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1377.7869.420.000.05
CreightonBE0.310.1372.7351.600.140.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1366.6777.710.000.07
XavierBE0.560.1380.0071.020.340.05
DaytonA100.810.1377.7869.890.450.05
TroySB0.310.1333.3340.58-0.10-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.1333.3332.03-0.00-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1371.4359.600.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1390.0078.120.000.07
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.1325.0048.84-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.130.0019.58-0.00-0.08
AlabamaSEC0.000.1266.6755.660.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1275.0060.600.000.03
AuburnSEC0.000.1244.4435.62-0.00-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1277.7865.350.000.04
FloridaSEC0.000.1260.0064.870.000.04
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1262.5059.460.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.1277.7862.380.000.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1262.5064.360.000.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1185.7170.330.000.04
Saint LouisA100.280.1060.0034.010.06-0.03
MarquetteBE0.000.1055.5647.640.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1033.3334.56-0.00-0.03
ButlerBE0.000.1080.0072.470.000.05
Arkansas St.SB0.310.1033.3345.72-0.10-0.01
NebraskaB100.310.1066.6743.830.10-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1025.0033.13-0.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.100.008.71-0.00-0.08
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.280.1018.1821.69-0.18-0.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1071.4364.070.000.03
OhioMAC0.000.1050.0037.520.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.350.1055.5653.800.040.01
IllinoisB100.000.1072.7365.950.000.03
Kent St.MAC0.280.1071.4361.390.120.02
Oral RobertsSum0.660.1044.4444.76-0.07-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.510.1062.5055.120.130.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0950.0074.090.000.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0916.6719.82-0.00-0.06
CampbellBSth0.000.0725.0044.80-0.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0757.1456.730.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0757.1447.960.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0720.0038.33-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.070.008.81-0.00-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0710.0041.11-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0710.0018.04-0.00-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.070.0039.62-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0711.1144.96-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0720.0034.02-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0720.0026.68-0.00-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0741.6744.37-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0744.4470.22-0.000.03
USCP120.350.0760.0037.230.07-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.600.0775.0068.510.300.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0718.1827.98-0.00-0.03
AkronMAC0.000.0760.0056.780.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0740.0033.85-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0775.0069.340.000.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0771.4363.540.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0771.4348.780.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0730.0028.35-0.00-0.03
SamfordSC0.000.0733.3331.37-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.660.0642.8638.50-0.09-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.350.0640.0050.48-0.070.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0650.0048.630.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.310.0687.5054.920.230.01
UMKCWAC0.310.0622.2242.15-0.17-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0640.0050.16-0.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0625.0038.24-0.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0620.0038.66-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0675.0074.350.000.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0614.2934.33-0.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0625.0028.71-0.00-0.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0628.5747.18-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.310.0642.8650.31-0.040.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0666.6770.610.000.03
TCUB120.000.06100.0066.280.000.02
OklahomaB120.620.0677.7867.330.340.02
Oklahoma St.B120.310.0688.8963.230.240.02
Georgia TechACC0.460.0477.7851.090.260.00
Virginia TechACC0.460.0455.5638.100.05-0.01
Arizona St.P120.350.0360.0054.270.070.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0014.70-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0350.0052.290.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0320.0026.18-0.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0390.0075.760.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0320.0029.28-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0316.6727.11-0.00-0.02
StanfordP120.350.0375.0058.750.170.01
UC IrvineBW0.350.0337.5046.91-0.09-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.350.0342.8643.73-0.05-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0344.4451.18-0.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.350.03100.0077.970.350.02
DenverSum0.000.0350.0053.980.000.00
DetroitHorz0.350.0344.4449.46-0.04-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0344.4439.99-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.350.0388.8955.730.270.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0360.0059.520.000.01
TulsaAmer0.350.0360.0056.680.070.00
VCUA100.000.0370.0071.520.000.01
Washington St.P120.350.0340.0029.07-0.07-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1461.280.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0065.060.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.0344.4447.44-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.250.030.0012.28-0.25-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0375.0078.710.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0310.0018.36-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0336.3633.75-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0370.0066.610.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0085.210.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0355.5660.050.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.310.0344.4455.33-0.030.00
New MexicoMWC0.310.0370.0058.440.120.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0328.5756.75-0.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0330.0032.16-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0390.0084.620.000.02
PrincetonIvy0.250.0327.2737.77-0.11-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0336.3647.27-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.250.0370.0072.770.100.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0322.2240.77-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0333.3338.24-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.250.0337.5064.54-0.060.01
UCLAP120.250.0372.7357.410.110.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0314.2945.52-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0050.770.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0085.770.000.02
ArizonaP120.310.03100.0080.830.310.02
ElonCAA0.310.0337.5048.14-0.08-0.00
PurdueB100.310.0372.7363.690.140.01
UCFAmer0.000.0355.5635.040.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.310.0366.6772.280.100.01
Western IllinoisSum0.310.0337.5031.79-0.08-0.01
YaleIvy0.280.0370.0064.820.110.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6745.400.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0340.0046.88-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6772.380.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0388.8964.130.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.42-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0366.6759.200.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0370.0071.340.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0333.3340.60-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0038.030.00-0.01