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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Southeast Missouri St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:342.0
Current RPI:342
Expected SOS:264
Current SOS:264
Current Record:3-24
Expected Record:3-24
Current Conf Record:2-14
Expected Conf Record:2-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-10
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:328
Expected OOC SOS:243



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
3-24342.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southeast Missouri St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Dayton (21.0)A10A84-53L0%0.0
11-15Evansville (93.0)MVCA80-65L0%0.0
11-19Alabama A&M (332.0)SWACA74-56L0%0.0
11-24UT Rio Grande Valley (338.0)WACA83-74L0%0.0
11-28Loyola Marymount (223.0)WCCH60-73L0%0.0
12-2Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCA74-50L0%0.0
12-5Memphis (139.0)AmerA80-65L0%0.0
12-8Bowling Green (200.0)MACH52-79L0%0.0
12-12Mississippi (96.0)SECH64-75L0%0.0
12-19Northern Kentucky (296.0)HorzA79-69L0%0.0
12-22Missouri St. (235.0)MVCA74-78W100%0.0
12-31Belmont (98.0)OVCH82-92L0%0.0
1-2Tennessee St. (152.0)OVCH66-72L0%0.0
1-7Morehead St. (127.0)OVCA96-69L0%0.0
1-9Eastern Kentucky (211.0)OVCA88-69L0%0.0
1-13Jacksonville St. (309.0)OVCH60-74L0%0.0
1-16Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCA91-55L0%0.0
1-24Tennessee Martin (213.0)OVCH68-60W100%0.0
1-28SIU Edwardsville (305.0)OVCA51-58W100%0.0
1-30Austin Peay (184.0)OVCH80-86L0%0.0
2-4Murray St. (169.0)OVCH72-78L0%0.0
2-6Eastern Illinois (271.0)OVCA78-69L0%0.0
2-11Tennessee Martin (213.0)OVCA77-64L0%0.0
2-13Murray St. (169.0)OVCA83-56L0%0.0
2-18SIU Edwardsville (305.0)OVCH69-72L0%0.0
2-20Eastern Illinois (271.0)OVCH68-71L0%0.0
2-27Austin Peay (184.0)OVCA83-75L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southeast Missouri St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southeast Missouri St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southeast Missouri St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southeast Missouri St.OVC26.1526.1513.1813.18-19.26-19.26
Murray St.OVC4.584.5848.1548.15-0.17-0.17
Austin PeayOVC4.564.5645.1645.16-0.44-0.44
Tennessee MartinOVC4.524.5255.1755.170.470.47
Eastern IllinoisOVC4.484.4834.6234.62-1.38-1.38
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC4.424.4219.2319.23-2.72-2.72
Morehead St.OVC2.642.6457.1457.140.380.38
BelmontOVC2.572.5762.0762.070.620.62
Jacksonville St.OVC2.552.5517.8617.86-1.64-1.64
Tennessee St.OVC2.542.5462.9662.960.660.66
Tennessee TechOVC2.542.5459.2659.260.470.47
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.492.4944.8344.83-0.26-0.26
EvansvilleMVC2.132.1371.8871.880.930.93
Southern IllinoisMVC2.102.1067.7467.740.740.74
Missouri St.MVC1.991.9940.0040.00-0.40-0.40
Alabama A&MSWAC1.981.9833.3333.33-0.66-0.66
Northern KentuckyHorz1.951.9522.2222.22-1.08-1.08
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.911.9115.3815.38-1.32-1.32
Loyola MarymountWCC1.881.8841.3841.38-0.32-0.32
MemphisAmer1.881.8854.5554.550.170.17
MississippiSEC1.881.8861.2961.290.420.42
Bowling GreenMAC1.851.8541.9441.94-0.30-0.30
DaytonA101.851.8577.4277.421.021.02
Illinois St.MVC0.300.3054.8454.840.030.03
Saint LouisA100.280.2834.3834.38-0.09-0.09
Indiana St.MVC0.270.2745.1645.16-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.230.2320.0020.00-0.14-0.14
Northern IowaMVC0.230.2363.6463.640.060.06
Green BayHorz0.230.2363.6463.640.060.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.230.2358.0658.060.040.04
BradleyMVC0.200.2012.9012.90-0.15-0.15
HoustonAmer0.190.1970.9770.970.080.08
LipscombASun0.180.1832.2632.26-0.07-0.07
IPFWSum0.180.1870.9770.970.070.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.170.1774.1974.190.080.08
Ball St.MAC0.160.1658.0658.060.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.160.1646.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.160.1680.0080.000.090.09
IndianaB100.150.1578.1278.120.090.09
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.1379.3179.310.080.08
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1329.1729.17-0.06-0.06
MarshallCUSA0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
UMKCWAC0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1322.8622.86-0.07-0.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.1314.2914.29-0.09-0.09
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Arkansas St.SB0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
TulaneAmer0.110.1135.2935.29-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
SeattleWAC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.100.103.453.45-0.09-0.09
Portland St.BSky0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
ButlerBE0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
DetroitHorz0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
SouthernSWAC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
BYUWCC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0983.8783.870.060.06
San DiegoWCC0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
PortlandWCC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.090.0975.7675.760.040.04
TroySB0.090.0924.1424.14-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0772.4172.410.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0710.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
USCP120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Weber St.BSky0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.060.0644.1244.12-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
XavierBE0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
PacificWCC0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
KentuckySEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Texas TechB120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
DuquesneA100.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
George MasonA100.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
RichmondA100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0679.4179.410.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
FurmanSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01