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Through games of Feb 26, 2017.


Southeast Missouri St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:291.2
Current RPI:287
Expected SOS:323
Current SOS:321
Current Record:12-17
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:9-7
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-8
Current OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:343
Expected OOC SOS:342



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-17291.2100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southeast Missouri St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Illinois (58.9)B10A81-62L0%0.0
11-16Western Illinois (324.3)SumA71-74W100%0.0
11-18Bradley (222.8)MVCA84-78L0%0.0
11-22UT Rio Grande Valley (313.2)WACH83-72W100%0.0
11-28UMKC (189.2)WACA86-75L0%0.0
12-1Central Arkansas (295.6)SlndH87-63W100%0.0
12-4Indiana (83.9)B10A83-55L0%0.0
12-7Missouri St. (217.0)MVCH71-79L0%0.0
12-10Northern Kentucky (100.7)HorzH66-80L0%0.0
12-17Missouri St. (217.0)MVCA71-66L0%0.0
12-19DePaul (230.9)BEA81-78L0%0.0
12-22Chicago St. (318.5)WACN65-74L0%0.0
12-23Cornell (279.5)IvyN78-62L0%0.0
12-31Eastern Kentucky (245.0)OVCH81-48W100%0.0
1-5Tennessee St. (152.3)OVCA65-62L0%0.0
1-7Belmont (55.4)OVCA87-75L0%0.0
1-10Tennessee Tech (263.9)OVCH83-78W100%0.0
1-14Tennessee Martin (163.3)OVCA79-69L0%0.0
1-19SIU Edwardsville (334.1)OVCH79-76W100%0.0
1-21Eastern Illinois (269.4)OVCH83-71W100%0.0
1-26Murray St. (241.3)OVCA74-75W100%0.0
1-28Austin Peay (260.3)OVCA71-82W100%0.0
2-1Jacksonville St. (185.3)OVCA74-62L0%0.0
2-4Morehead St. (188.8)OVCH81-89L0%0.0
2-9SIU Edwardsville (334.1)OVCA67-71W100%0.0
2-11Eastern Illinois (269.4)OVCA86-80L0%0.0
2-18Tennessee Martin (163.3)OVCH90-61W100%0.0
2-23Murray St. (241.3)OVCH82-69W100%0.0
2-25Austin Peay (260.3)OVCH79-88L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southeast Missouri St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southeast Missouri St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southeast Missouri St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southeast Missouri St.OVC26.2626.2542.2842.28-4.06-4.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC4.254.2544.0044.00-0.51-0.51
Tennessee MartinOVC4.204.1962.9662.961.091.09
Austin PeayOVC4.194.1830.7730.77-1.61-1.61
Murray St.OVC4.164.1646.1546.15-0.32-0.32
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC4.164.1619.2319.23-2.56-2.56
Missouri St.MVC3.633.6246.4346.43-0.26-0.26
Jacksonville St.OVC2.402.4050.0050.000.000.00
Morehead St.OVC2.402.4042.3142.31-0.37-0.37
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.352.3535.7135.71-0.67-0.67
Tennessee TechOVC2.352.3535.7135.71-0.67-0.67
Tennessee St.OVC2.342.3453.8553.850.180.18
BelmontOVC2.342.3480.0080.001.401.40
Chicago St.WAC1.972.007.698.25-1.67-1.67
UMKCWAC1.941.9742.3143.60-0.30-0.25
BradleyMVC1.931.9334.4834.48-0.60-0.60
Northern KentuckyHorz1.911.9164.2964.290.550.55
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.911.9126.9226.10-0.88-0.91
Western IllinoisSum1.881.8825.0025.00-0.94-0.94
IndianaB101.881.8853.5752.430.130.09
DePaulBE1.871.8728.5727.71-0.80-0.83
IllinoisB101.781.7855.5655.530.200.20
Central ArkansasSlnd1.761.7627.5927.90-0.79-0.78
CornellIvy1.721.7220.0020.64-1.03-1.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.360.3650.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.330.3344.8344.83-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.290.2982.7682.760.190.19
LipscombASun0.280.2857.1457.140.040.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.250.2567.8666.440.090.08
Indiana St.MVC0.240.2434.4834.48-0.07-0.07
DrakeMVC0.230.2321.4321.43-0.13-0.13
Fort WayneSum0.220.2259.2659.260.040.04
Green BayHorz0.210.2157.1457.140.030.03
TroySB0.190.1951.8551.300.010.00
IUPUISum0.190.1939.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.190.1872.0072.040.080.08
New Mexico St.WAC0.160.1880.7781.310.100.12
SeattleWAC0.190.1840.0039.27-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.190.1840.0041.50-0.04-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.180.1841.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.180.187.698.10-0.15-0.15
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.170.1746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.170.1786.6786.670.130.13
NorthwesternB100.180.1768.9767.270.070.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.160.1644.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.160.1634.4833.33-0.05-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.160.1629.6328.06-0.06-0.07
MilwaukeeHorz0.160.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
Western KentuckyCUSA0.150.1544.8345.81-0.02-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
PurdueB100.130.1579.3178.860.070.09
DetroitHorz0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
MississippiSEC0.150.1562.0760.370.040.03
Arkansas St.SB0.150.1566.6765.850.050.05
ValparaisoHorz0.150.1576.6776.670.080.08
WisconsinB100.150.1475.8676.270.080.08
MichiganB100.150.1465.5265.140.050.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1385.7186.430.090.09
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1362.9662.960.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.130.1321.4321.43-0.07-0.07
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.120.1232.0030.44-0.04-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
DelawareCAA0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
MarquetteBE0.120.1260.7159.700.030.02
IowaB100.120.1255.1754.140.010.01
MarylandB100.120.1275.0074.310.060.06
Penn St.B100.120.1148.2847.91-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.120.1179.3179.350.070.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
South DakotaSum0.100.1065.5265.520.030.03
MissouriSEC0.090.0925.0025.17-0.05-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0942.8642.02-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.090.0956.0054.920.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
WoffordSC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.090.0975.8675.860.050.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0962.5062.610.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0951.8550.780.000.00
West VirginiaB120.090.0979.3178.510.050.05
USCP120.090.0972.4173.260.040.04
CreightonBE0.090.0975.0074.570.050.04
LamarSlnd0.090.0948.0049.70-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.060.0962.0761.020.010.02
RutgersB100.060.0842.8642.28-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0755.1752.800.010.00
South AlabamaSB0.060.0642.3142.60-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0650.0049.680.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0626.9228.27-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0666.6767.530.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0653.5754.970.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0625.0025.07-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.060.0675.8673.450.030.03
BrownIvy0.030.0638.4639.38-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0641.6741.50-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.0624.0022.79-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.060.0681.4880.740.040.04
HarvardIvy0.070.0669.5767.060.030.02
HawaiiBW0.060.0650.0048.750.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.070.0671.4370.580.030.03
PennIvy0.070.0648.0049.55-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.070.0675.0075.780.030.03
StetsonASun0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.030.0658.3360.030.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0650.0049.020.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0621.4322.28-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0619.2322.18-0.04-0.03
DuquesneA100.060.0634.4834.29-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.060.0682.7682.930.040.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.1547.90-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.060.0689.6688.490.050.05
UMass LowellAE0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.060.0655.5655.160.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0660.7159.770.010.01
TCUB120.060.0657.1456.900.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0662.9663.840.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.060.0679.3179.060.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.0056.310.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0633.3332.49-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.060.0675.8674.340.030.03
NebraskaB100.060.0640.7439.61-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0655.1754.740.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0639.1339.73-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0648.2847.22-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0647.8349.16-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.060.0642.3141.71-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0658.3359.230.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0640.0038.77-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0630.4331.29-0.01-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.030.0662.0762.540.010.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0664.2962.630.020.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0646.4345.93-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.060.0644.8343.89-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0652.0053.480.000.00
VillanovaBE0.060.0690.0089.570.050.04
XavierBE0.030.0662.0762.620.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.030.0358.6257.980.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0379.3179.350.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0367.8668.280.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0375.8674.140.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.5778.180.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0351.7250.150.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0359.2658.390.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0340.0042.28-0.01-0.00
LafayettePat0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0362.0761.430.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0375.8674.710.020.02
PortlandWCC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0345.8345.20-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.0010.00-0.03-0.02
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.6757.420.000.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0358.6258.150.010.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0348.0048.50-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0361.5460.990.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0353.5752.450.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0318.5220.52-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0314.8115.93-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0323.0824.04-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0376.0077.290.020.02
OhioMAC0.030.0365.3866.640.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0353.5752.980.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0346.1545.04-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0051.170.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0358.6258.500.010.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0350.0049.050.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0382.7682.760.020.02
BYUWCC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0379.3177.540.020.02
George MasonA100.030.0360.7159.910.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0379.3179.090.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0376.9276.820.020.02
VCUA100.030.0379.3178.000.020.02
WinthropBSth0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.6745.71-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0026.00-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0330.4330.00-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0320.8321.37-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0317.2420.08-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.7681.210.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0367.8666.120.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.990.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0344.4445.39-0.00-0.00