live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Fairleigh Dickinson

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:237.1
Current RPI:70
Expected SOS:281
Current SOS:5
Current Record:0-2
Expected Record:12-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-8
Current OOC Record:0-2
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:234
Expected OOC SOS:85



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-658.00.01%
20-789.70.03%
19-897.30.18%
18-9119.00.76%
17-10138.72.09%
16-11159.64.40%
15-12181.47.90%
14-13202.012.80%
13-14222.615.95%
12-15243.217.13%
11-16261.414.94%
10-17279.411.34%
9-18295.56.82%
8-19309.43.42%
7-20320.91.58%
6-21331.00.44%
5-22338.60.16%
4-23343.70.03%
3-24344.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fairleigh Dickinson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Seton Hall (28.6)BEA90-68L0%0.0
11-12Penn St. (87.4)B10A81-57L0%0.0
11-22Holy Cross (207.8)PatH0-054%1.1
11-26Princeton (162.6)IvyH0-032%-5.6
11-29Saint Peter's (214.6)MAACA0-030%-6.4
12-2Iona (89.3)MAACA0-013%-13.2
12-9Rutgers (181.4)B10A0-015%-12.4
12-16NJIT (312.5)ASunA0-052%0.5
12-21Maryland (25.7)B10A0-02%-24.3
12-29LIU Brooklyn (288.5)NECA0-046%-1.3
12-31Sacred Heart (306.6)NECA0-051%0.2
1-4Central Connecticut (302.5)NECH0-070%6.4
1-6Wagner (244.2)NECA0-043%-2.0
1-11LIU Brooklyn (288.5)NECH0-065%4.7
1-13Robert Morris (288.7)NECH0-069%6.0
1-18Central Connecticut (302.5)NECA0-051%0.4
1-20Mount St. Mary's (254.8)NECH0-062%3.7
1-25St. Francis NY (308.9)NECH0-075%8.1
1-27Bryant (305.7)NECA0-055%1.6
2-1St. Francis PA (160.7)NECA0-027%-7.5
2-3Robert Morris (288.7)NECA0-050%-0.0
2-8Sacred Heart (306.6)NECH0-070%6.2
2-11Wagner (244.2)NECH0-063%4.0
2-15Mount St. Mary's (254.8)NECA0-043%-2.3
2-17St. Francis NY (308.9)NECA0-057%2.1
2-22St. Francis PA (160.7)NECH0-045%-1.5
2-24Bryant (305.7)NECH0-074%7.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fairleigh Dickinson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fairleigh Dickinson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fairleigh Dickinson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC31.2526.440.0048.48-31.25-0.80
LIU BrooklynNEC0.004.7925.0045.820.00-0.40
Sacred HeartNEC0.004.790.0037.140.00-1.23
WagnerNEC0.004.7866.6750.190.000.02
BryantNEC0.004.760.0029.870.00-1.92
Central ConnecticutNEC0.004.7625.0040.570.00-0.90
St. Francis NYNEC0.004.750.0030.670.00-1.84
Robert MorrisNEC0.004.730.0035.760.00-1.35
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.004.7225.0047.810.00-0.21
St. Francis PANEC0.004.7133.3359.330.000.88
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.002.1433.3347.830.00-0.09
RutgersB100.002.10100.0045.560.00-0.19
NJITASun3.122.0833.3332.63-1.04-0.72
Seton HallBE25.002.02100.0066.8525.000.68
IonaMAAC0.001.9925.0058.820.000.35
Holy CrossPat0.001.95100.0048.870.00-0.04
Penn St.B1025.001.95100.0059.0325.000.35
MarylandB100.001.94100.0070.810.000.81
PrincetonIvy0.001.850.0050.330.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.4133.3326.430.00-0.19
BrownIvy0.000.35100.0039.270.00-0.08
RiderMAAC0.000.2966.6755.210.000.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.2950.0042.730.00-0.04
SienaMAAC0.000.280.0037.060.00-0.07
AmericanPat0.000.270.0030.350.00-0.10
NorthwesternB100.000.2575.0055.040.000.03
LehighPat0.000.2366.6751.580.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.230.0021.970.00-0.13
FairfieldMAAC0.000.2366.6754.900.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.23100.0055.280.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.22100.0054.590.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.22100.0059.870.000.04
NiagaraMAAC0.000.2050.0051.840.000.01
MonmouthMAAC3.120.2066.6759.741.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.190.0033.700.00-0.06
Stony BrookAE0.000.190.0047.400.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.1950.0052.870.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1933.3346.330.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.190.0022.840.00-0.10
YaleIvy0.000.1625.0054.930.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.16100.0066.990.000.05
FordhamA100.000.1633.3336.170.00-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.000.1625.0038.080.00-0.04
Michigan St.B100.000.1650.0077.820.000.09
PurdueB100.000.16100.0085.360.000.11
NebraskaB100.000.1666.6740.070.00-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.15100.0054.680.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1366.6773.200.000.06
North FloridaASun0.000.130.0036.690.00-0.04
ArmyPat0.000.1350.0053.620.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.130.0038.210.00-0.03
Notre DameACC0.000.13100.0073.730.000.06
ButlerBE0.000.1375.0052.360.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.1333.3348.480.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.13100.0047.670.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.13100.0058.070.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.1350.0050.870.000.00
MichiganB100.000.13100.0061.710.000.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.1375.0064.570.000.04
AlbanyAE0.000.12100.0072.510.000.06
IllinoisB100.000.12100.0059.240.000.02
IndianaB103.120.1233.3341.22-1.04-0.02
IowaB100.000.12100.0058.250.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1275.0045.290.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.1233.3331.290.00-0.05
HarvardIvy0.000.1033.3354.200.000.01
ColumbiaIvy3.120.1033.3350.35-1.040.00
ColgatePat0.000.1050.0050.310.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.100.0061.460.000.02
MaristMAAC0.000.100.0023.830.00-0.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1025.0032.490.00-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.1050.0073.230.000.04
PittsburghACC0.000.0933.3334.560.00-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.09100.0061.010.000.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0933.3339.360.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.09100.0071.700.000.04
WisconsinB100.000.0966.6766.970.000.03
New HampshireAE0.000.090.0048.110.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0933.3333.580.00-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0933.3334.490.00-0.03
CornellIvy0.000.0733.3334.680.00-0.02
PennIvy0.000.0733.3349.350.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0766.6762.150.000.02
DukeACC0.000.07100.0083.580.000.05
JacksonvilleASun0.000.070.0029.620.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.070.0031.380.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.0733.3349.220.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.070.0017.060.00-0.05
MissouriSEC0.000.0766.6757.890.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.07100.0088.360.000.05
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0766.6756.400.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0733.3333.620.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.070.0039.010.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0766.6745.880.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.070.0047.690.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.070.0038.100.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0633.3335.150.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.06100.0062.240.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0067.460.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.06100.0039.920.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.06100.0054.140.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0082.960.000.04
XavierBE0.000.06100.0078.990.000.04
GeorgiaSEC0.000.06100.0053.240.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.06100.0075.130.000.03
Little RockSB0.000.060.0037.050.00-0.02
MaineAE0.000.060.0013.450.00-0.04
MemphisAmer0.000.0650.0050.670.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0042.850.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0666.6748.280.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0050.450.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.06100.0052.950.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.060.0027.250.00-0.03
BYUWCC0.000.0466.6767.320.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0433.3338.050.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.04100.0074.500.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0466.6768.320.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0466.6759.540.000.01
USCP120.000.04100.0073.190.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0366.6771.200.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0333.3350.840.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.960.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0375.0051.210.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0042.160.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.030.0043.690.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0044.500.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0028.770.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.03100.0070.960.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0350.0054.450.000.00
UMBCAE0.000.030.0052.900.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0366.6766.020.000.01
CampbellBSth3.120.030.0051.41-3.120.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.03100.0068.200.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0375.0048.930.00-0.00
MontanaBSky3.120.0350.0060.130.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0023.260.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.03100.0062.630.000.01
VCUA100.000.0366.6766.590.000.01