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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Fairleigh Dickinson

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:257.1
Current RPI:127
Expected SOS:276
Current SOS:24
Current Record:2-5
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-7
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:226
Expected OOC SOS:194



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-9113.00.01%
18-10129.80.20%
17-11147.80.75%
16-12167.72.01%
15-13187.64.91%
14-14208.410.10%
13-15230.714.09%
12-16251.418.31%
11-17271.118.63%
10-18289.214.53%
9-19303.59.27%
8-20314.84.71%
7-21323.81.90%
6-22329.70.47%
5-23336.00.07%
4-24343.00.02%
3-25345.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fairleigh Dickinson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Saint Joseph's (189.6)A10A57-58W100%0.0
11-19Rutgers (158.0)B10A61-44L0%0.0
11-25Columbia (100.8)IvyA57-47L0%0.0
11-30Lafayette (90.4)PatH61-82L0%0.0
12-3Princeton (236.6)IvyH89-85W100%0.0
12-6Notre Dame (68.4)ACCA75-57L0%0.0
12-10St. John's (43.2)BEA74-52L0%0.0
12-20Delaware (332.9)CAAH0-088%13.9
12-23Saint Peter's (224.5)MAACA0-021%-9.6
12-29Towson (195.0)CAAA0-026%-7.5
1-3Central Connecticut (309.7)NECA0-045%-1.4
1-5LIU Brooklyn (235.2)NECA0-028%-6.7
1-8St. Francis NY (268.3)NECH0-060%2.9
1-10Bryant (199.6)NECA0-025%-7.9
1-15Mount St. Mary's (258.5)NECH0-070%6.3
1-17Wagner (274.1)NECH0-068%5.5
1-22Sacred Heart (154.5)NECA0-020%-9.9
1-24LIU Brooklyn (235.2)NECH0-057%2.0
1-29Robert Morris (272.3)NECA0-037%-3.8
1-31St. Francis PA (141.5)NECA0-016%-11.5
2-5St. Francis PA (141.5)NECH0-041%-2.7
2-7Robert Morris (272.3)NECH0-066%4.9
2-12Bryant (199.6)NECH0-053%0.8
2-14Wagner (274.1)NECA0-039%-3.3
2-19St. Francis NY (268.3)NECA0-031%-5.9
2-21Mount St. Mary's (258.5)NECA0-042%-2.5
2-26Sacred Heart (154.5)NECH0-046%-1.2
2-28Central Connecticut (309.7)NECH0-074%7.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fairleigh Dickinson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fairleigh Dickinson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fairleigh Dickinson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC27.7426.4034.4843.05-8.61-3.67
Robert MorrisNEC0.454.6130.0038.82-0.18-1.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.364.6122.2239.42-0.20-0.98
Sacred HeartNEC0.454.6150.0057.740.000.71
WagnerNEC0.894.6114.2932.54-0.64-1.61
LIU BrooklynNEC0.844.6033.3343.76-0.28-0.57
Central ConnecticutNEC0.004.5822.2230.18-0.00-1.82
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.324.5737.5037.51-0.08-1.14
St. Francis PANEC0.004.5750.0061.580.001.06
BryantNEC0.004.5528.5746.20-0.00-0.35
LafayettePat7.472.0071.4368.703.200.75
RutgersB107.142.0055.5632.910.79-0.68
ColumbiaIvy7.141.9757.1463.421.020.53
PrincetonIvy7.591.9130.0039.20-3.04-0.41
TowsonCAA0.001.9066.6750.660.000.03
DelawareCAA0.001.900.007.23-0.00-1.63
Notre DameACC7.141.8590.0070.965.710.77
Saint Joseph'sA107.141.8562.5041.891.79-0.30
St. John'sBE7.141.8585.7163.845.100.51
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.681.8536.3646.06-0.19-0.15
HofstraCAA0.000.3477.7878.540.000.19
BrownIvy0.000.3440.0033.79-0.00-0.11
NJITind0.450.3036.3640.98-0.12-0.05
MonmouthMAAC0.000.3044.4456.51-0.000.04
YaleIvy0.450.2872.7367.180.200.10
New HampshireAE0.360.2757.1464.620.050.08
PennIvy0.450.2537.5033.00-0.11-0.09
AmericanPat0.450.2260.0065.400.090.07
LehighPat0.450.2237.5047.71-0.11-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.2277.7868.780.000.08
RiderMAAC0.320.2150.0052.800.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.2166.6759.460.000.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.1944.4447.53-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.1985.7172.940.000.09
Loyola MDPat0.840.1933.3327.70-0.28-0.08
NavyPat0.320.1920.0021.58-0.19-0.11
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1850.0056.340.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.1870.0060.790.000.04
MarylandB100.000.1890.9167.660.000.06
Seton HallBE0.360.1890.0067.260.290.06
La SalleA100.000.1850.0049.960.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.1750.0051.050.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.770.1633.3354.74-0.260.02
BucknellPat0.450.1640.0036.29-0.09-0.04
CornellIvy0.000.1655.5648.240.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.1620.0043.08-0.00-0.02
VermontAE0.400.1644.4457.85-0.040.02
DuquesneA100.000.1528.5731.23-0.00-0.06
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1550.0057.510.000.02
TempleAmer0.400.1563.6455.600.110.02
DrexelCAA0.400.1525.0037.13-0.20-0.04
ClemsonACC0.360.1566.6745.670.12-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1377.7869.190.000.05
MaineAE0.000.1311.1121.08-0.00-0.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1341.6744.33-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.1257.1453.130.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.1250.0038.000.00-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1250.0044.900.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.1237.5047.87-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.1225.0034.77-0.00-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.000.1266.6757.860.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1250.0053.700.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.1257.1456.750.000.02
VillanovaBE0.400.12100.0082.080.400.08
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1244.4439.74-0.00-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0933.3342.19-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0950.0054.230.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.320.090.0011.87-0.32-0.07
PittsburghACC0.000.0966.6752.340.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0940.0046.73-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0975.0065.410.000.03
FordhamA100.450.0928.5728.26-0.19-0.04
MassachusettsA100.320.0960.0055.630.060.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0970.0071.630.000.04
Ohio St.B100.000.0990.0084.680.000.06
ProvidenceBE0.320.0972.7353.260.150.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.090.0016.85-0.00-0.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0920.0034.08-0.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.09100.0087.140.000.06
MaristMAAC0.000.0910.0018.61-0.00-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.450.0914.2930.74-0.32-0.03
UMBCAE0.000.0910.0020.91-0.00-0.05
ManhattanMAAC0.360.0922.2237.50-0.20-0.02
PurdueB100.000.0972.7363.730.000.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3348.89-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.0690.0081.860.000.04
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0056.560.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0080.590.000.04
FIUCUSA0.000.0644.4451.04-0.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0688.8981.310.000.04
George MasonA100.320.0625.0025.93-0.16-0.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3332.09-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0069.120.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.0680.0072.550.000.03
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0044.59-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0644.4451.58-0.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.0672.7351.560.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.0660.0034.110.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0650.0052.710.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.840.0690.0090.940.670.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3345.28-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0655.5647.870.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0662.5073.190.000.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0660.0059.420.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0655.5654.360.000.01
XavierBE0.000.0680.0070.960.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0645.4544.07-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.320.060.0014.79-0.32-0.04
George WashingtonA100.360.0666.6766.340.120.02
MinnesotaB100.450.0677.7864.730.250.02
SyracuseACC0.450.0666.6757.800.150.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0666.6742.100.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0655.5661.390.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0637.5038.60-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0677.7851.350.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0680.0057.630.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6772.340.000.03
MichiganB100.000.0655.5642.550.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.320.0672.7373.150.150.03
Penn St.B100.000.0690.9153.850.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0644.4449.65-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0637.5051.81-0.000.00
VirginiaACC0.360.06100.0085.310.360.04
KentuckySEC0.450.03100.0094.790.450.03
KansasB120.000.0388.8969.390.000.01
West VirginiaB120.450.0390.0066.940.360.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0342.8638.75-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0310.0030.45-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.320.0390.0066.690.260.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.320.0375.0074.340.160.01
LipscombASun0.000.0325.0042.64-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.320.0354.5557.300.030.00
San Jose St.MWC0.320.030.007.84-0.32-0.03
StanfordP120.000.0375.0057.570.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.320.0366.6772.670.110.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6754.660.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.0387.5077.020.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0377.7870.120.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0340.0050.07-0.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0318.1835.99-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0355.5657.090.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0360.0033.870.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0371.4357.100.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0387.5054.790.000.00
VCUA100.000.0370.0071.420.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.400.0355.5649.500.04-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.320.030.0011.40-0.32-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.320.0350.0037.510.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.320.030.008.88-0.32-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.0372.7365.930.000.01
IowaB100.000.0372.7362.590.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0085.330.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0390.0075.520.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6743.780.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0381.8264.110.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0350.0032.620.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0360.0040.620.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.360.0375.0060.400.180.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0355.5638.130.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.390.000.02