Fairleigh Dickinson

Conference:	NEC
Expected RPI:	299.0
Current RPI:	299
Expected SOS:	231
Current SOS:	231
Current Record:	7-24
Expected Record:	7-24
Current Conf Record:	2-16
Expected Conf Record:	2-16
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-15
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-7
Current OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC RPI:	203
Expected OOC SOS:	212

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
7-24	299.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fairleigh Dickinson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Xavier (87.0)	A10	A	117-75	L	0%
11-18	Northwestern (168.0)	B10	A	80-53	L	0%
11-20	Illinois St. (117.0)	MVC	A	91-58	L	0%
11-23	Delaware St. (263.0)	MEAC	N	63-62	W	100%
11-24	Prairie View A&M (315.0)	SWAC	N	70-84	W	100%
11-28	St. Peter's (290.0)	MAAC	A	61-66	W	100%
12-1	Lehigh (107.0)	Pat	A	102-62	L	0%
12-7	Lafayette (153.0)	Pat	H	82-80	W	100%
12-9	Hartford (187.0)	AE	H	59-69	L	0%
12-22	Vermont (134.0)	AE	A	76-62	L	0%
12-29	Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)	A10	A	96-67	L	0%
12-31	Longwood (332.0)	BSth	A	71-79	W	100%
1-3	Mount St. Mary's (121.0)	NEC	A	65-72	W	100%
1-5	Wagner (126.0)	NEC	A	68-55	L	0%
1-10	Robert Morris (132.0)	NEC	H	54-88	L	0%
1-12	St. Francis PA (322.0)	NEC	H	79-69	W	100%
1-14	NJ Inst of Technology (300.0)	GWC	H	63-66	L	0%
1-17	Long Island (179.0)	NEC	H	75-79	L	0%
1-19	St. Francis NY (207.0)	NEC	A	70-51	L	0%
1-24	Monmouth (282.0)	NEC	A	73-54	L	0%
1-26	Quinnipiac (191.0)	NEC	A	58-56	L	0%
1-31	Bryant (158.0)	NEC	H	63-78	L	0%
2-2	Central Connecticut (200.0)	NEC	H	71-80	L	0%
2-7	Sacred Heart (253.0)	NEC	A	77-70	L	0%
2-10	Monmouth (282.0)	NEC	H	76-80	L	0%
2-14	St. Francis NY (207.0)	NEC	H	61-85	L	0%
2-16	Long Island (179.0)	NEC	A	92-67	L	0%
2-21	St. Francis PA (322.0)	NEC	A	69-63	L	0%
2-23	Robert Morris (132.0)	NEC	A	89-46	L	0%
2-28	Wagner (126.0)	NEC	H	66-84	L	0%
3-2	Mount St. Mary's (121.0)	NEC	H	82-103	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fairleigh Dickinson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Fairleigh Dickinson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Fairleigh Dickinson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	26.17	26.17	24.83	24.83	-13.17	-13.17
Long Island	NEC	4.11	4.11	58.06	58.06	0.66	0.66
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	4.06	4.06	56.67	56.67	0.54	0.54
Robert Morris	NEC	4.02	4.02	67.74	67.74	1.43	1.43
St. Francis NY	NEC	4.00	4.00	35.71	35.71	-1.14	-1.14
Wagner	NEC	4.00	4.00	58.62	58.62	0.69	0.69
Monmouth	NEC	3.98	3.98	27.59	27.59	-1.78	-1.78
St. Francis PA	NEC	3.90	3.90	14.81	14.81	-2.74	-2.74
Central Connecticut	NEC	2.48	2.48	41.38	41.38	-0.43	-0.43
Quinnipiac	NEC	2.47	2.47	46.67	46.67	-0.16	-0.16
Bryant	NEC	2.42	2.42	62.07	62.07	0.58	0.58
Sacred Heart	NEC	2.42	2.42	28.57	28.57	-1.04	-1.04
Lafayette	Pat	2.02	2.02	56.25	56.25	0.25	0.25
Lehigh	Pat	1.90	1.90	67.86	67.86	0.68	0.68
Hartford	AE	1.79	1.79	55.17	55.17	0.19	0.19
St. Peter's	MAAC	1.72	1.72	31.03	31.03	-0.65	-0.65
Delaware St.	MEAC	1.71	1.71	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	1.69	1.69	75.76	75.76	0.87	0.87
Vermont	AE	1.69	1.69	64.52	64.52	0.49	0.49
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	1.69	1.69	45.83	45.83	-0.14	-0.14
Xavier	A10	1.69	1.69	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Illinois St.	MVC	1.66	1.66	53.12	53.12	0.10	0.10
Northwestern	B10	1.66	1.66	38.71	38.71	-0.38	-0.38
Longwood	BSth	1.64	1.64	20.00	20.00	-0.98	-0.98
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	1.61	1.61	40.00	40.00	-0.32	-0.32
Colgate	Pat	0.30	0.30	34.38	34.38	-0.09	-0.09
Navy	Pat	0.29	0.29	23.33	23.33	-0.15	-0.15
Albany	AE	0.26	0.26	70.59	70.59	0.11	0.11
Binghamton	AE	0.26	0.26	6.90	6.90	-0.22	-0.22
American	Pat	0.24	0.24	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.23	0.23	23.33	23.33	-0.12	-0.12
Army	Pat	0.22	0.22	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.22	0.22	28.57	28.57	-0.09	-0.09
Stony Brook	AE	0.21	0.21	76.67	76.67	0.11	0.11
Bucknell	Pat	0.18	0.18	84.38	84.38	0.13	0.13
Holy Cross	Pat	0.18	0.18	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.18	0.18	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.18	0.18	22.58	22.58	-0.10	-0.10
Maryland	ACC	0.18	0.18	64.71	64.71	0.05	0.05
Niagara	MAAC	0.16	0.16	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Brown	Ivy	0.16	0.16	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Boston University	AE	0.16	0.16	58.62	58.62	0.03	0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.15	0.15	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.15	0.15	19.35	19.35	-0.09	-0.09
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.14	0.14	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Fairfield	MAAC	0.14	0.14	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.13	0.13	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.13	0.13	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
La Salle	A10	0.13	0.13	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
Syracuse	BE	0.13	0.13	74.29	74.29	0.06	0.06
Maine	AE	0.13	0.13	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Indiana	B10	0.13	0.13	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
George Washington	A10	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.11	0.11	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
Yale	Ivy	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.10	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Butler	A10	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Wichita St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	14.29	14.29	-0.06	-0.06
St. John's	BE	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.08	0.08	29.63	29.63	-0.03	-0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.08	0.08	59.26	59.26	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Purdue	B10	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.05	-0.05
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Drake	MVC	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
New Orleans	ind	0.06	0.06	18.18	18.18	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	-0.05	-0.05
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.04	-0.04
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Texas Christian	B12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00