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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Fairleigh Dickinson

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:215.2
Current RPI:200
Expected SOS:315
Current SOS:299
Current Record:12-11
Expected Record:15-13
Current Conf Record:9-4
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-9
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:243
Expected OOC SOS:203



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-11182.36.58%
16-12198.126.88%
15-13215.537.82%
14-14233.321.78%
13-15251.86.21%
12-16269.70.72%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fairleigh Dickinson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Villanova (3.3)BEA91-54L0%0.0
11-18Army (217.9)PatH85-96L0%0.0
11-21Fordham (193.9)A10A85-62L0%0.0
11-24Delaware (268.7)CAAA73-72L0%0.0
11-28Saint Peter's (225.7)MAACH77-62W100%0.0
11-30Princeton (51.7)IvyA91-61L0%0.0
12-2Temple (73.2)AmerA79-70L0%0.0
12-9Lafayette (323.1)PatA89-91W100%0.0
12-18Towson (166.5)CAAH69-68W100%0.0
12-23Rutgers (280.8)B10A72-64L0%0.0
1-2St. Francis NY (285.0)NECH86-77W100%0.0
1-4Bryant (320.9)NECH80-85L0%0.0
1-7Sacred Heart (280.4)NECA68-80W100%0.0
1-9Central Connecticut (350.6)NECH92-73W100%0.0
1-14St. Francis PA (226.5)NECA59-71W100%0.0
1-16Robert Morris (306.3)NECA64-58L0%0.0
1-21LIU Brooklyn (277.0)NECH101-95W100%0.0
1-24Mount St. Mary's (229.4)NECH72-87L0%0.0
1-28St. Francis PA (226.5)NECH86-82W100%0.0
1-30LIU Brooklyn (277.0)NECA85-88W100%0.0
2-4Wagner (201.7)NECA79-82W100%0.0
2-6St. Francis NY (285.0)NECA85-71L0%0.0
2-11Bryant (320.9)NECA77-91W100%0.0
2-13Robert Morris (306.3)NECH0-073%6.6
2-18Wagner (201.7)NECH0-049%-0.3
2-20Sacred Heart (280.4)NECH0-073%6.7
2-25Mount St. Mary's (229.4)NECA0-033%-4.7
2-27Central Connecticut (350.6)NECA0-076%7.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fairleigh Dickinson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fairleigh Dickinson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fairleigh Dickinson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC26.4226.4057.1457.173.773.78
St. Francis NYNEC5.074.6139.1343.03-1.10-0.64
Central ConnecticutNEC3.124.6013.0413.37-2.30-3.37
Sacred HeartNEC3.074.6034.7838.00-0.93-1.10
BryantNEC5.074.5821.7423.13-2.86-2.46
LIU BrooklynNEC5.024.5754.5555.080.460.46
Mount St. Mary'sNEC2.944.5540.0043.55-0.59-0.59
Robert MorrisNEC2.984.5524.0026.19-1.55-2.17
St. Francis PANEC5.014.5457.1455.820.720.53
WagnerNEC2.974.5463.6465.360.811.39
LafayettePat2.512.0321.7422.45-1.42-1.12
Saint Peter'sMAAC2.371.9142.8644.92-0.34-0.19
FordhamA102.311.9150.0048.870.00-0.04
TowsonCAA2.311.9165.2259.790.700.37
ArmyPat2.351.9152.1752.660.100.10
DelawareCAA2.361.9121.7422.25-1.33-1.06
PrincetonIvy2.271.8570.5973.730.930.88
RutgersB102.221.8518.1817.59-1.41-1.20
VillanovaBE2.221.8586.9686.411.641.34
TempleAmer2.221.8563.6461.070.610.41
AmericanPat0.270.3129.1731.19-0.11-0.12
LehighPat0.270.3039.1342.83-0.06-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.280.2837.5037.69-0.07-0.07
PennIvy0.290.2738.8937.69-0.06-0.07
Loyola MDPat0.360.2733.3335.18-0.12-0.08
BucknellPat0.280.2752.1754.940.010.03
MaineAE0.280.2532.0031.16-0.10-0.09
YaleIvy0.240.2573.6874.620.110.12
St. John'sBE0.280.2425.0023.45-0.14-0.13
BrownIvy0.240.2231.5831.01-0.09-0.08
HartfordAE0.230.2124.0024.55-0.12-0.11
BinghamtonAE0.230.2124.0026.44-0.12-0.10
FairfieldMAAC0.140.1954.1754.090.010.02
MonmouthMAAC0.190.1980.0081.160.110.12
DartmouthIvy0.240.1931.5831.68-0.09-0.07
HofstraCAA0.140.1866.6766.770.050.06
Holy CrossPat0.180.1841.6739.59-0.03-0.04
MarylandB100.240.1887.5083.660.180.12
La SalleA100.230.1819.0520.30-0.15-0.11
Boston CollegeACC0.230.1829.1726.69-0.10-0.09
Seton HallBE0.230.1870.8368.080.100.07
ConnecticutAmer0.190.1870.8370.130.080.07
ElonCAA0.130.1850.0050.070.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.130.1872.0071.320.060.08
RiderMAAC0.210.1640.0042.04-0.04-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.260.1683.3381.280.170.10
George WashingtonA100.240.1675.0071.960.120.07
ColgatePat0.190.1643.4844.90-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.090.1566.6765.240.030.05
NJITASun0.230.1556.0055.640.030.02
DuquesneA100.140.1560.8756.270.030.02
CornellIvy0.090.1342.1140.24-0.01-0.03
George MasonA100.140.1333.3333.63-0.05-0.04
HarvardIvy0.150.1335.0038.57-0.04-0.03
MaristMAAC0.190.1321.7424.25-0.11-0.06
MassachusettsA100.140.1343.4842.40-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.140.1324.0024.61-0.07-0.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.1334.7834.97-0.03-0.04
AlbanyAE0.180.1273.0873.780.080.06
ManhattanMAAC0.140.1245.4543.23-0.01-0.02
SienaMAAC0.190.1265.3864.970.060.04
Boston UniversityPat0.140.1256.0056.510.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1260.8758.900.030.02
DrexelCAA0.140.1213.0416.42-0.10-0.08
NavyPat0.090.1264.0064.460.030.04
NortheasternCAA0.180.1248.0048.60-0.01-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.140.1277.2773.930.070.06
William & MaryCAA0.140.1268.1867.110.050.04
CincinnatiAmer0.140.1272.0071.570.060.05
GeorgetownBE0.130.1256.0052.870.020.01
Ohio St.B100.090.1260.0055.560.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.180.1272.0069.130.080.04
IonaMAAC0.140.0960.8760.670.030.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0919.0525.90-0.06-0.05
LibertyBSth0.150.0934.7836.53-0.04-0.02
Saint LouisA100.090.0934.7832.39-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0964.0062.090.010.02
South FloridaAmer0.090.0920.0019.73-0.06-0.05
MichiganB100.130.0970.8366.750.060.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0925.0027.26-0.02-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.090.0943.4837.80-0.01-0.02
UMBCAE0.090.0923.0825.87-0.05-0.04
NebraskaB100.140.0952.0050.760.010.00
ButlerBE0.090.0970.8369.000.040.03
CreightonBE0.140.0964.0062.070.040.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0642.3144.53-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.090.0665.2260.600.030.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0629.1733.75-0.04-0.02
Notre DameACC0.090.0670.8367.930.040.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0658.3357.250.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0656.5255.820.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.0614.2920.64-0.07-0.04
BradleyMVC0.090.0612.0011.95-0.07-0.05
FIUCUSA0.090.0639.1342.98-0.02-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0652.9452.100.010.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0625.0033.23-0.05-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0645.0049.27-0.01-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.069.0912.26-0.08-0.05
DukeACC0.090.0675.0071.840.040.03
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0641.6739.49-0.02-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0670.8367.980.020.02
IllinoisB100.050.0645.8344.07-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.090.0679.1775.990.050.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0658.3359.310.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0680.0081.560.030.04
New HampshireAE0.090.0659.0956.870.020.01
North FloridaASun0.090.0662.5064.120.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.069.0917.14-0.07-0.04
TulsaAmer0.050.0666.6764.700.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0650.0044.650.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.090.0662.5057.000.020.01
DePaulBE0.050.0633.3334.02-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.040.0656.0054.430.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0659.0955.160.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.040.0679.1777.510.020.03
MarquetteBE0.050.0664.0057.890.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0620.0022.25-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.040.0665.2268.600.010.02
OaklandHorz0.040.0665.3865.510.010.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0665.2264.340.010.02
WashingtonP120.040.0662.5060.140.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0687.5081.850.030.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0630.4332.26-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.060.0359.0961.280.010.01
LipscombASun0.060.0328.0030.49-0.03-0.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0382.6177.580.040.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0343.4850.64-0.010.00
Stony BrookAE0.060.0382.6183.010.040.02
DavidsonA100.000.0361.9058.170.000.01
DaytonA100.050.0386.9682.160.040.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0372.7370.410.020.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0368.1871.350.020.01
VCUA100.050.0370.8371.050.020.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0324.0025.68-0.02-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0356.5257.060.010.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0343.4845.21-0.01-0.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0362.5058.940.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.8342.30-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0350.0048.130.00-0.00
USCP120.050.0378.2673.130.030.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0325.0029.89-0.02-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0358.3358.400.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0336.3638.97-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0380.0075.690.030.02
IowaB100.050.0379.1778.880.030.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0383.3378.380.030.02
Penn St.B100.000.0350.0046.770.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0380.0077.910.030.02
SMUAmer0.050.0386.9682.920.030.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0336.0034.84-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.050.0370.8368.520.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0341.6739.90-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0382.6181.140.030.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0360.8760.240.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0354.1752.000.000.00
OklahomaB120.050.0386.9682.620.030.02
StanfordP120.050.0347.6244.06-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0383.3378.460.030.02