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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Fairleigh Dickinson

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:267.1
Current RPI:319
Expected SOS:243
Current SOS:298
Current Record:1-4
Expected Record:10-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-8
Current OOC Record:1-4
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:261
Expected OOC SOS:69



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-10109.00.02%
17-11121.90.09%
16-12142.60.16%
15-13160.50.77%
14-14180.72.27%
13-15203.15.05%
12-16224.19.69%
11-17244.014.60%
10-18262.918.55%
9-19280.817.93%
8-20296.514.81%
7-21309.79.07%
6-22321.74.49%
5-23330.11.91%
4-24335.90.41%
3-25340.50.16%
2-26343.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fairleigh Dickinson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Seton Hall (76.8)BEA91-70L0%0.0
11-18Fordham (205.9)A10A68-55L0%0.0
11-19Lipscomb (296.4)ASunN72-90W100%0.0
11-20Saint Peter's (178.9)MAACN58-84L0%0.0
11-30Army (208.3)PatA97-78L0%0.0
12-3Ohio St. (30.8)B10A0-01%-26.8
12-7Iona (82.5)MAACH0-020%-9.9
12-10Towson (160.8)CAAA0-015%-12.3
12-14Rutgers (182.4)B10A0-014%-12.8
12-17Cincinnati (21.0)AmerA0-01%-27.9
12-29St. Francis PA (251.0)NECH0-056%1.9
12-31Robert Morris (246.0)NECH0-054%1.3
1-5Wagner (204.5)NECA0-024%-8.6
1-7Bryant (194.6)NECH0-046%-1.2
1-12Mount St. Mary's (168.7)NECA0-023%-8.7
1-14Central Connecticut (293.0)NECA0-043%-2.2
1-19St. Francis NY (314.7)NECH0-070%6.3
1-21LIU Brooklyn (214.2)NECH0-050%-0.1
1-26St. Francis NY (314.7)NECA0-050%0.1
1-28Bryant (194.6)NECA0-027%-7.4
2-2Sacred Heart (299.9)NECH0-068%5.5
2-4Wagner (204.5)NECH0-042%-2.4
2-9Central Connecticut (293.0)NECH0-063%4.0
2-11LIU Brooklyn (214.2)NECA0-030%-6.2
2-16Sacred Heart (299.9)NECA0-048%-0.7
2-18Mount St. Mary's (168.7)NECH0-042%-2.5
2-23Robert Morris (246.0)NECA0-034%-4.9
2-25St. Francis PA (251.0)NECA0-036%-4.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fairleigh Dickinson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fairleigh Dickinson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fairleigh Dickinson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC28.9826.3826.3236.75-13.73-6.99
Central ConnecticutNEC0.714.6240.0036.95-0.14-1.21
St. Francis NYNEC0.004.6016.6728.61-0.00-1.97
Robert MorrisNEC0.004.5725.0038.14-0.00-1.08
Sacred HeartNEC0.714.5742.8637.75-0.10-1.12
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.004.5412.5047.71-0.00-0.21
BryantNEC0.004.5428.5749.25-0.00-0.07
LIU BrooklynNEC0.004.5483.3357.840.000.71
St. Francis PANEC0.004.5340.0043.09-0.00-0.63
WagnerNEC0.004.5233.3352.80-0.000.25
FordhamA1011.712.0050.0041.740.00-0.33
Saint Peter'sMAAC11.431.9650.0051.130.000.04
RutgersB100.001.9483.3343.350.00-0.26
Seton HallBE10.001.8866.6752.953.330.11
IonaMAAC0.001.8860.0069.830.000.74
LipscombASun11.711.8716.6734.30-7.81-0.59
TowsonCAA0.001.8750.0053.450.000.13
ArmyPat10.001.8520.0043.64-6.00-0.23
CincinnatiAmer0.711.8285.7180.350.511.10
Ohio St.B100.001.8285.7171.790.000.79
FairfieldMAAC0.830.2783.3362.080.560.07
UMass LowellAE0.000.2425.0040.81-0.00-0.05
DuquesneA100.000.2437.5034.65-0.00-0.07
LehighPat0.000.2433.3367.01-0.000.08
MonmouthMAAC0.000.2171.4371.570.000.09
ProvidenceBE0.000.2171.4356.280.000.03
RiderMAAC0.710.2150.0047.990.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.2150.0042.420.00-0.03
LafayettePat1.000.2133.3331.87-0.33-0.08
HartfordAE0.000.2112.5022.55-0.00-0.11
Loyola MDPat0.000.2133.3340.49-0.00-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.000.2133.3338.19-0.00-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.000.2116.6727.03-0.00-0.09
MinnesotaB100.000.2085.7165.670.000.06
AmericanPat0.000.1916.6735.65-0.00-0.05
YaleIvy0.000.1833.3364.14-0.000.05
BucknellPat0.000.1875.0067.660.000.06
MarylandB100.000.1885.7156.490.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1833.3341.52-0.00-0.03
NJITASun0.000.1642.8650.32-0.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.1642.8640.94-0.00-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1533.3338.76-0.00-0.03
Boston UniversityPat1.000.1550.0053.530.000.01
NavyPat0.000.1528.5743.62-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.1528.5733.92-0.00-0.05
NorthwesternB100.000.1571.4366.220.000.05
DePaulBE0.000.1580.0035.960.00-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.710.1516.6734.31-0.48-0.05
VirginiaACC0.000.15100.0082.550.000.09
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1316.6737.09-0.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.1266.6770.740.000.05
MarquetteBE0.000.1271.4363.090.000.03
Stony BrookAE0.000.1216.6733.82-0.00-0.04
MaineAE0.000.1216.6725.61-0.00-0.06
Holy CrossPat0.000.1242.8647.69-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.1240.0057.97-0.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.120.0023.47-0.00-0.06
NortheasternCAA0.000.1257.1448.240.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.000.1240.0040.65-0.00-0.02
IowaB100.710.1242.8644.33-0.10-0.01
George MasonA100.000.1257.1442.940.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.1257.1440.550.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.1242.8635.68-0.00-0.03
Penn St.B100.000.1262.5043.960.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.1257.1448.600.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.1228.5750.51-0.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.1275.0073.840.000.06
MichiganB100.000.1271.4366.530.000.04
MassachusettsA100.000.1083.3358.080.000.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0942.8636.82-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0983.3358.030.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.090.0043.04-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.09100.0075.010.000.04
AlbanyAE0.000.0950.0060.380.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.09100.0075.690.000.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0966.6775.370.000.04
OhioMAC0.000.0980.0068.320.000.03
XavierBE0.000.09100.0074.800.000.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0950.0027.250.00-0.04
Michigan St.B100.000.0950.0061.590.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0950.0043.610.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0975.0070.470.000.04
UMBCAE0.000.0980.0055.340.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.710.0957.1464.940.100.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0971.4368.970.000.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0942.8637.60-0.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.710.0640.0061.37-0.140.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0650.0071.330.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0657.1459.480.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0628.5730.29-0.00-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.0625.0024.66-0.00-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.710.0620.0041.93-0.43-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0614.2931.71-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.26-0.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.710.0614.2928.66-0.51-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6766.100.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0633.3338.20-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0041.31-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy1.550.0642.8642.47-0.22-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0662.5056.500.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.650.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.0683.3368.880.000.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6751.460.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0650.0047.560.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0091.060.000.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.060.0037.92-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0028.15-0.00-0.03
La SalleA100.000.0660.0051.780.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0620.0032.60-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0650.0057.480.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0671.4350.570.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0046.780.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0024.19-0.00-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.170.000.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0625.0024.28-0.00-0.03
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0083.120.000.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.0640.0055.44-0.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.0657.1442.660.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0683.3375.060.000.03
PurdueB100.000.0671.4374.450.000.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.0671.4370.330.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.0685.7170.990.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0683.3362.840.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0640.0050.91-0.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0018.22-0.00-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0034.18-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0683.3376.370.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0685.7155.890.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0683.3359.600.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0038.35-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6740.71-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0683.3378.430.000.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0637.5036.24-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0657.1469.300.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6732.240.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0650.0046.670.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.0671.4363.570.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0614.2926.81-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0039.200.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0683.3374.620.000.03
West VirginiaB120.000.0683.3380.550.000.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0041.65-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0325.0034.47-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0383.3370.360.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0042.710.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.830.0385.7168.390.600.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.830.0314.2929.15-0.60-0.01
OregonP120.830.0371.4366.730.360.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0383.3363.610.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.710.0383.3380.700.480.02
FloridaSEC0.710.0387.5075.320.540.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0357.1444.160.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.940.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.51-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0371.4365.740.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0366.6765.810.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0080.780.000.02
StanfordP120.710.0375.0059.100.360.01
VCUA100.000.0385.7178.150.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0333.3343.64-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0375.0047.510.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0320.0034.39-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0042.55-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0385.7159.740.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0357.1455.810.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0357.1467.020.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0033.44-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0083.550.000.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0064.840.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0320.0054.94-0.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0316.6718.96-0.00-0.02