Fairleigh Dickinson

Conference:	NEC
Expected RPI:	323.6
Current RPI:	331
Expected SOS:	219
Current SOS:	240
Current Record:	2-21
Expected Record:	4-25
Current Conf Record:	1-11
Expected Conf Record:	3-15
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	3-11
Current OOC Record:	1-10
Expected OOC Record:	1-10
Expected OOC RPI:	329
Expected OOC SOS:	197

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-21	280.0	0.01%
7-22	295.4	0.24%
6-23	303.4	2.18%
5-24	311.9	13.45%
4-25	320.4	32.52%
3-26	328.2	37.10%
2-27	333.5	14.49%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fairleigh Dickinson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-12	Providence (153.2)	BE	A	72-61	L	0%	0.0
11-15	Lehigh (110.6)	Pat	H	61-72	L	0%	0.0
11-18	St. Peter's (281.1)	MAAC	H	73-62	W	100%	0.0
11-22	Lafayette (209.9)	Pat	A	85-74	L	0%	0.0
11-27	Albany (217.2)	AE	A	81-62	L	0%	0.0
12-1	Robert Morris (110.5)	NEC	A	66-54	L	0%	0.0
12-3	St. Francis PA (303.2)	NEC	A	73-69	L	0%	0.0
12-7	Stony Brook (149.6)	AE	A	70-46	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Louisville (21.2)	BE	A	80-58	L	0%	0.0
12-21	Vermont (168.3)	AE	H	53-71	L	0%	0.0
12-28	NJ Inst of Technology (294.0)	GWC	A	66-53	L	0%	0.0
1-2	Columbia (150.6)	Ivy	A	67-52	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Wagner (83.3)	NEC	H	64-88	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Mount St. Mary's (289.3)	NEC	H	45-66	L	0%	0.0
1-12	Long Island (106.7)	NEC	A	82-64	L	0%	0.0
1-14	St. Francis NY (188.0)	NEC	A	62-51	L	0%	0.0
1-16	Longwood (318.3)	ind	H	83-87	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Robert Morris (110.5)	NEC	H	55-67	L	0%	0.0
1-21	St. Francis PA (303.2)	NEC	H	63-69	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Bryant (334.5)	NEC	A	63-66	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Central Connecticut (234.8)	NEC	A	69-62	L	0%	0.0
2-2	Quinnipiac (174.4)	NEC	H	48-65	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Sacred Heart (241.2)	NEC	H	57-66	L	0%	0.0
2-8	Monmouth (274.7)	NEC	H	0-0		55%	1.4
2-11	Monmouth (274.7)	NEC	A	0-0		32%	-5.2
2-16	Wagner (83.3)	NEC	A	0-0		1%	-24.6
2-18	Mount St. Mary's (289.3)	NEC	A	0-0		25%	-7.5
2-23	Long Island (106.7)	NEC	H	0-0		16%	-11.1
2-25	St. Francis NY (188.0)	NEC	H	0-0		24%	-7.7

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fairleigh Dickinson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Fairleigh Dickinson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Fairleigh Dickinson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	26.26	26.26	9.17	12.26	-21.44	-19.82
Long Island	NEC	2.98	4.36	69.57	69.55	1.17	1.70
Monmouth	NEC	0.82	4.32	28.00	26.96	-0.36	-1.99
St. Francis NY	NEC	2.88	4.29	54.55	53.60	0.26	0.31
Wagner	NEC	2.82	4.26	81.82	83.48	1.79	2.86
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	2.77	4.23	22.73	24.24	-1.51	-2.18
St. Francis PA	NEC	4.81	4.20	14.29	17.03	-3.44	-2.77
Robert Morris	NEC	4.77	4.18	65.22	67.99	1.45	1.50
Sacred Heart	NEC	2.83	2.60	41.67	44.08	-0.47	-0.31
Bryant	NEC	2.83	2.60	8.70	11.21	-2.33	-2.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	2.81	2.59	54.55	55.61	0.26	0.29
Central Connecticut	NEC	2.72	2.54	42.86	43.68	-0.39	-0.32
Lafayette	Pat	2.61	2.17	40.91	40.94	-0.48	-0.39
Albany	AE	2.41	2.02	56.00	57.16	0.29	0.29
Lehigh	Pat	2.50	1.99	72.73	74.05	1.14	0.96
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	2.37	1.93	29.41	35.82	-0.97	-0.55
Vermont	AE	2.36	1.93	60.00	62.63	0.47	0.49
Stony Brook	AE	2.40	1.89	66.67	67.79	0.80	0.67
St. Peter's	MAAC	2.35	1.87	21.74	24.55	-1.33	-0.95
Columbia	Ivy	2.32	1.84	52.63	53.14	0.12	0.12
Longwood	ind	2.23	1.79	25.00	22.93	-1.12	-0.97
Providence	BE	2.26	1.78	50.00	47.07	0.00	-0.10
Louisville	BE	2.22	1.75	78.26	73.34	1.25	0.82
Colgate	Pat	0.44	0.36	30.43	29.49	-0.17	-0.15
Hartford	AE	0.40	0.35	20.83	22.81	-0.24	-0.19
Brown	Ivy	0.32	0.35	27.27	23.78	-0.15	-0.18
Navy	Pat	0.33	0.32	9.52	13.17	-0.27	-0.24
Army	Pat	0.35	0.30	40.91	41.68	-0.06	-0.05
American	Pat	0.34	0.30	65.22	63.79	0.10	0.08
Pittsburgh	BE	0.36	0.29	62.50	59.52	0.09	0.05
New Hampshire	AE	0.31	0.23	33.33	37.75	-0.10	-0.06
Rider	MAAC	0.23	0.23	40.00	39.70	-0.05	-0.05
Seton Hall	BE	0.29	0.21	65.22	63.65	0.09	0.06
Yale	Ivy	0.23	0.21	72.22	63.23	0.10	0.05
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.24	0.21	54.55	56.80	0.02	0.03
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.22	0.21	13.04	14.47	-0.17	-0.15
Rutgers	BE	0.24	0.21	50.00	46.87	0.00	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.28	0.21	40.91	42.03	-0.05	-0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.24	0.21	36.00	40.36	-0.07	-0.04
Boston University	AE	0.31	0.20	50.00	53.83	0.00	0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.23	0.20	0.00	4.04	-0.23	-0.19
Bucknell	Pat	0.19	0.18	73.91	75.03	0.09	0.09
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.24	0.18	14.29	17.12	-0.17	-0.12
Hofstra	CAA	0.14	0.18	32.00	35.39	-0.05	-0.05
Maine	AE	0.17	0.18	47.62	48.01	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.22	0.17	43.48	45.03	-0.03	-0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.25	0.15	36.84	41.47	-0.07	-0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.15	0.15	47.37	52.90	-0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.09	0.15	69.57	70.42	0.04	0.06
Penn St.	B10	0.14	0.15	41.67	38.63	-0.02	-0.03
Connecticut	BE	0.15	0.15	65.22	62.35	0.04	0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.15	69.57	65.88	0.06	0.05
Harvard	Ivy	0.10	0.15	90.48	87.91	0.08	0.11
St. John's	BE	0.18	0.14	43.48	40.24	-0.02	-0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.13	0.14	79.17	80.14	0.08	0.09
Syracuse	BE	0.13	0.14	95.83	92.00	0.12	0.12
Manhattan	MAAC	0.16	0.12	68.00	69.08	0.06	0.05
Georgetown	BE	0.15	0.12	80.95	77.45	0.09	0.06
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.14	0.12	78.26	74.29	0.08	0.06
Boston College	ACC	0.18	0.12	30.43	26.42	-0.07	-0.05
La Salle	A10	0.18	0.12	70.83	68.83	0.08	0.04
Marist	MAAC	0.14	0.12	34.78	33.44	-0.04	-0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.18	0.12	34.78	37.18	-0.06	-0.03
Marquette	BE	0.14	0.12	80.00	76.67	0.08	0.06
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.18	0.12	52.38	53.29	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.14	0.12	56.52	54.88	0.02	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.13	0.11	65.22	62.67	0.04	0.03
South Florida	BE	0.09	0.11	54.55	48.54	0.01	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.09	0.11	45.83	45.52	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.06	0.10	33.33	41.30	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.16	0.09	73.91	68.65	0.08	0.04
Canisius	MAAC	0.14	0.09	17.39	19.76	-0.09	-0.05
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.09	70.83	62.75	0.04	0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.09	0.09	60.87	53.44	0.02	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.09	40.91	34.45	-0.01	-0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.09	0.09	60.00	58.30	0.02	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.08	47.83	42.19	-0.00	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.04	0.08	76.00	72.48	0.02	0.04
Memphis	CUSA	0.13	0.08	69.57	71.58	0.05	0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.13	0.08	81.82	77.18	0.08	0.05
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.06	0.07	47.83	47.88	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.07	9.09	12.82	-0.05	-0.05
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.07	25.00	28.48	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.07	19.05	24.60	-0.04	-0.04
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.07	54.55	57.71	0.01	0.01
Seattle	ind	0.00	0.06	22.22	32.99	-0.00	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.10	0.06	14.29	16.80	-0.07	-0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.10	0.06	63.64	57.79	0.03	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.10	0.06	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.06	77.27	73.50	0.05	0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.04	0.06	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.06	47.37	42.13	-0.00	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	38.89	41.49	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.09	0.06	79.17	78.05	0.06	0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.06	21.74	25.63	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.06	42.11	45.89	-0.01	-0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.06	28.57	26.31	-0.02	-0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	54.55	58.39	0.00	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.09	0.06	60.00	59.09	0.02	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.09	0.06	80.00	78.08	0.06	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.09	0.06	70.83	66.50	0.04	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.06	8.70	13.12	-0.04	-0.04
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	22.22	27.56	-0.03	-0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.00	0.06	69.57	65.37	0.00	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.09	0.06	82.61	81.41	0.06	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.06	59.09	56.38	0.02	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.09	0.06	40.00	40.17	-0.02	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.09	0.06	54.17	54.76	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.00	0.06	86.96	83.30	0.00	0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.00	0.06	56.52	55.22	0.00	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.04	0.06	66.67	65.98	0.01	0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.03	75.00	76.02	0.03	0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.03	27.27	35.05	-0.02	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.03	33.33	34.54	-0.02	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.03	47.83	47.36	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.00	0.03	81.82	81.50	0.00	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	75.73	0.02	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.03	34.78	35.19	-0.02	-0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.05	0.03	80.95	76.42	0.03	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.03	35.00	40.74	-0.02	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.03	45.00	44.18	-0.01	-0.00
Elon	SC	0.05	0.03	52.38	49.77	0.00	-0.00
Furman	SC	0.05	0.03	45.45	47.20	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.69	0.01	0.00
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.03	47.83	50.66	-0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.03	27.27	27.33	-0.02	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	19.39	-0.03	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.03	12.50	13.42	-0.04	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.03	68.42	66.51	0.02	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	85.71	78.11	0.03	0.02
Southern Utah	Sum	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.27	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.03	76.19	75.98	0.02	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.03	0.00	5.31	-0.05	-0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.36	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.81	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.03	58.33	59.92	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.04	0.03	22.73	24.64	-0.02	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.03	34.78	35.53	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.03	96.00	93.53	0.04	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.03	61.90	67.29	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.04	0.03	43.48	43.89	-0.01	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.03	71.43	73.45	0.02	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.04	0.03	62.50	61.43	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.04	0.03	20.83	20.61	-0.03	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.04	0.03	50.00	48.48	0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.04	0.03	40.91	39.60	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.04	0.03	47.62	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.04	0.03	77.27	77.70	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.03	4.35	9.74	-0.04	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.04	0.03	4.00	5.27	-0.04	-0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.46	-0.01	-0.01