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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Fairleigh Dickinson

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:278.6
Current RPI:283
Expected SOS:247
Current SOS:206
Current Record:4-13
Expected Record:9-18
Current Conf Record:3-5
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-8
Current OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC RPI:298
Expected OOC SOS:110



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-13188.00.08%
13-14207.50.35%
12-15224.32.68%
11-16240.28.91%
10-17258.119.29%
9-18275.526.00%
8-19292.723.30%
7-20308.513.55%
6-21321.54.91%
5-22331.50.90%
4-23338.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fairleigh Dickinson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Seton Hall (25.8)BEA90-68L0%0.0
11-12Penn St. (113.7)B10A81-57L0%0.0
11-22Holy Cross (304.1)PatH87-76W100%0.0
11-26Princeton (141.3)IvyH76-83L0%0.0
11-29Saint Peter's (226.6)MAACA77-53L0%0.0
12-2Iona (82.3)MAACA82-75L0%0.0
12-9Rutgers (185.2)B10A92-54L0%0.0
12-16NJIT (274.8)ASunA71-68L0%0.0
12-21Maryland (43.3)B10A75-50L0%0.0
12-29LIU Brooklyn (274.5)NECA71-82W100%0.0
12-31Sacred Heart (314.6)NECA66-65L0%0.0
1-4Central Connecticut (253.7)NECH81-77W100%0.0
1-6Wagner (143.8)NECA73-65L0%0.0
1-11LIU Brooklyn (274.5)NECH85-90L0%0.0
1-13Robert Morris (151.7)NECH75-81L0%0.0
1-18Central Connecticut (253.7)NECA66-65L0%0.0
1-20Mount St. Mary's (257.2)NECH73-72W100%0.0
1-25St. Francis NY (282.8)NECH0-068%5.1
1-27Bryant (330.8)NECA0-057%2.0
2-1St. Francis PA (156.1)NECA0-021%-8.8
2-3Robert Morris (151.7)NECA0-023%-8.1
2-8Sacred Heart (314.6)NECH0-067%4.8
2-11Wagner (143.8)NECH0-043%-1.9
2-15Mount St. Mary's (257.2)NECA0-037%-3.7
2-17St. Francis NY (282.8)NECA0-045%-1.3
2-22St. Francis PA (156.1)NECH0-041%-2.4
2-24Bryant (330.8)NECH0-078%8.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fairleigh Dickinson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fairleigh Dickinson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fairleigh Dickinson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC26.5826.4223.8833.60-13.89-8.67
LIU BrooklynNEC6.424.7938.8942.04-1.43-0.76
Sacred HeartNEC3.334.7826.3231.11-1.58-1.81
WagnerNEC3.464.7762.5063.430.871.28
BryantNEC0.674.759.5216.00-0.54-3.23
Central ConnecticutNEC6.254.7552.6348.420.33-0.15
St. Francis NYNEC0.604.7433.3334.55-0.20-1.47
Robert MorrisNEC3.394.7255.0058.470.340.80
Mount St. Mary'sNEC3.394.7244.4445.97-0.38-0.38
St. Francis PANEC0.594.7152.9458.500.030.80
Saint Peter'sMAAC3.312.1341.1847.09-0.58-0.12
RutgersB103.242.1055.5645.310.36-0.20
NJITASun3.402.0735.2940.40-1.00-0.40
Seton HallBE3.272.0273.6866.821.550.68
IonaMAAC3.181.9861.1165.740.710.62
Holy CrossPat3.091.9427.7831.52-1.37-0.72
Penn St.B103.011.9460.0054.290.600.17
MarylandB103.011.9468.4264.121.110.55
PrincetonIvy2.941.8550.0058.800.000.33
HartfordAE0.670.4052.6346.880.04-0.03
BrownIvy0.370.3550.0045.130.00-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.530.2929.4130.67-0.22-0.11
RiderMAAC0.390.2865.0065.370.120.09
SienaMAAC0.220.2830.0031.69-0.09-0.10
AmericanPat0.160.2626.3228.14-0.08-0.12
NorthwesternB100.300.2555.0050.370.030.00
LehighPat0.240.2338.8944.75-0.05-0.02
LafayettePat0.400.2222.2227.51-0.22-0.10
FairfieldMAAC0.390.2238.8944.14-0.09-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.150.2247.3748.17-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.220.2180.9576.520.140.11
St. John'sBE0.360.2147.3742.18-0.02-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.160.1957.1453.220.020.01
Stony BrookAE0.300.1938.8946.68-0.07-0.01
NavyPat0.080.1960.0055.160.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.320.1927.7840.88-0.14-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.070.1921.4326.21-0.04-0.09
CanisiusMAAC0.230.1960.0060.340.050.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.360.189.5217.94-0.30-0.12
FordhamA100.220.1631.5829.06-0.08-0.07
LouisvilleACC0.070.1677.7869.360.040.06
YaleIvy0.080.1641.1847.51-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.290.1544.4442.74-0.03-0.02
Michigan St.B100.230.1585.0083.180.160.10
PurdueB100.150.1590.4888.380.120.12
NebraskaB100.070.1566.6759.780.020.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.1568.4257.770.050.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.1357.8966.250.010.04
North FloridaASun0.160.1331.5835.15-0.06-0.04
ArmyPat0.080.1361.1160.530.020.03
Notre DameACC0.080.1363.1661.050.020.03
Loyola MDPat0.150.1322.2228.67-0.09-0.05
DuquesneA100.070.1370.0058.100.030.02
OhioMAC0.230.1347.0648.44-0.01-0.00
ButlerBE0.230.1266.6763.070.080.03
GeorgetownBE0.150.1268.4254.090.060.01
MarquetteBE0.150.1268.4260.530.060.03
AlbanyAE0.150.1270.0068.050.060.04
IllinoisB100.070.1247.3744.27-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.070.1275.0070.270.040.05
Boston CollegeACC0.210.1268.4255.060.080.01
IndianaB100.140.1257.8950.680.020.00
IowaB100.220.1247.6244.03-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.210.1210.5314.86-0.17-0.09
ProvidenceBE0.070.1270.0060.460.030.03
DePaulBE0.140.1242.1134.32-0.02-0.04
ColgatePat0.160.1050.0051.040.000.00
HarvardIvy0.080.1037.5046.63-0.02-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.160.1020.0032.26-0.09-0.03
BucknellPat0.150.0961.9068.010.040.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0931.5830.00-0.03-0.04
MaristMAAC0.000.0921.0521.990.00-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.150.0972.2274.900.070.05
DrexelCAA0.150.0930.0030.99-0.06-0.04
PittsburghACC0.150.0940.0030.87-0.03-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.230.0983.3381.410.150.06
New HampshireAE0.080.0929.4138.15-0.03-0.02
MinnesotaB100.220.0963.6457.640.060.01
WisconsinB100.150.0950.0046.260.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.220.0920.0023.36-0.13-0.05
East CarolinaAmer0.220.0942.1132.48-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.090.0747.3750.95-0.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0789.4785.190.000.05
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0733.3333.80-0.03-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0716.6724.910.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.0752.9459.360.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0717.6517.230.00-0.04
MissouriSEC0.090.0766.6763.200.030.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0790.4888.940.000.05
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0750.0048.740.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.080.0733.3336.92-0.03-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.080.0711.1117.96-0.06-0.04
CornellIvy0.090.0733.3333.36-0.03-0.02
DenverSum0.000.0733.3336.470.00-0.02
PennIvy0.090.0764.7162.780.030.02
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0650.0053.160.000.00
La SalleA100.160.0640.0042.72-0.03-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0629.4139.62-0.03-0.01
George WashingtonA100.160.0645.0043.49-0.02-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.150.0647.0641.45-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.150.0668.4261.270.060.01
TulaneAmer0.150.0663.1657.900.040.01
CreightonBE0.150.0675.0070.690.070.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0666.6755.930.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0670.0071.230.030.03
Little RockSB0.070.0622.2225.26-0.04-0.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0665.0058.490.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0618.7536.76-0.04-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.0655.5656.710.020.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.140.0641.1839.13-0.02-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.070.0663.1657.540.020.01
VillanovaBE0.000.0694.7490.310.000.05
XavierBE0.070.0685.7180.080.050.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0621.0523.50-0.04-0.03
West VirginiaB120.080.0384.2178.170.060.02
AkronMAC0.090.0347.0644.91-0.01-0.00
BYUWCC0.090.0380.9576.230.050.02
Cal PolyBW0.090.0323.5328.21-0.05-0.01
HawaiiBW0.090.0368.7563.960.030.01
Miami FLACC0.090.0376.4769.020.050.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0372.2274.700.040.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0350.0051.650.000.00
USCP120.090.0371.4368.300.040.01
ElonCAA0.080.0352.6351.090.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.035.8819.37-0.07-0.02
MassachusettsA100.080.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.080.0350.0045.900.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0327.7838.13-0.03-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.080.0373.6869.610.040.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0341.1843.41-0.01-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0338.8943.43-0.02-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0315.7920.92-0.05-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.070.0345.0048.56-0.01-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0366.6773.240.030.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0366.6768.700.020.01
UMBCAE0.070.0358.8258.360.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.080.0356.2557.400.010.00
CampbellBSth0.070.0343.7545.34-0.01-0.00
George MasonA100.070.0345.0041.35-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.070.0370.5973.140.030.01
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0330.0032.53-0.03-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0368.4263.980.030.01
Texas TechB120.070.0378.9571.810.040.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0336.8435.55-0.02-0.01
VCUA100.070.0360.0059.690.010.01