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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Fairleigh Dickinson

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:269.0
Current RPI:269
Expected SOS:234
Current SOS:234
Current Record:9-20
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:6-11
Expected Conf Record:6-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-10
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:212
Expected OOC SOS:118



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-20269.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fairleigh Dickinson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Hofstra (277.0)CAAA80-58L0%0.0
11-15Hartford (234.0)AEA74-60L0%0.0
11-18Arizona (2.0)P12A100-50L0%0.0
11-23Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACH63-67L0%0.0
11-25Norfolk St. (227.0)MEACN70-62L0%0.0
11-26Rutgers (192.0)AmerA72-73W100%0.0
12-1Seton Hall (128.0)BEA54-58W100%0.0
12-4Stony Brook (165.0)AEA77-62L0%0.0
12-7Princeton (122.0)IvyA77-55L0%0.0
12-9Iowa (56.0)B10A92-59L0%0.0
12-21Columbia (130.0)IvyA82-59L0%0.0
1-5Hofstra (277.0)CAAH86-67W100%0.0
1-9Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECH85-79W100%0.0
1-11Sacred Heart (338.0)NECA71-67L0%0.0
1-16LIU Brooklyn (297.0)NECA67-89W100%0.0
1-18Bryant (177.0)NECH68-95L0%0.0
1-23St. Francis NY (190.0)NECH86-85W100%0.0
1-25Central Connecticut (293.0)NECH86-73W100%0.0
1-30Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECA87-82L0%0.0
2-1St. Francis PA (298.0)NECA83-75L0%0.0
2-6Wagner (218.0)NECA75-68L0%0.0
2-8Central Connecticut (293.0)NECA91-86L0%0.0
2-15St. Francis PA (298.0)NECH82-89L0%0.0
2-20Bryant (177.0)NECA52-63W100%0.0
2-22Sacred Heart (338.0)NECH73-66W100%0.0
2-24Wagner (218.0)NECH64-67L0%0.0
2-27Robert Morris (129.0)NECH64-69L0%0.0
3-1St. Francis NY (190.0)NECA79-56L0%0.0
3-5Robert Morris (129.0)NECA60-53L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fairleigh Dickinson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fairleigh Dickinson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fairleigh Dickinson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC26.3026.3034.4034.40-8.20-8.20
Mount St. Mary'sNEC4.374.3750.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC4.344.3459.3859.380.810.81
Central ConnecticutNEC4.314.3133.3333.33-1.44-1.44
WagnerNEC4.284.2857.1457.140.610.61
St. Francis NYNEC4.284.2855.1755.170.440.44
St. Francis PANEC4.284.2827.5927.59-1.92-1.92
Sacred HeartNEC4.284.2813.7913.79-3.10-3.10
BryantNEC4.234.2355.1755.170.440.44
HofstraCAA3.593.5929.0329.03-1.51-1.51
LIU BrooklynNEC2.642.6432.1432.14-0.94-0.94
HartfordAE2.002.0050.0050.000.000.00
Stony BrookAE1.891.8967.7467.740.670.67
ColumbiaIvy1.871.8758.6258.620.320.32
Seton HallBE1.811.8151.5251.520.050.05
PrincetonIvy1.811.8169.2369.230.700.70
Norfolk St.MEAC1.811.8151.7251.720.060.06
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.811.8143.3343.33-0.24-0.24
RutgersAmer1.781.7835.4835.48-0.52-0.52
ArizonaP121.721.7287.8887.881.311.31
IowaB101.721.7260.0060.000.340.34
YaleIvy0.350.3551.8551.850.010.01
BrownIvy0.290.2951.8551.850.010.01
NJITind0.280.2836.0036.00-0.08-0.08
New HampshireAE0.280.2817.2417.24-0.18-0.18
LafayettePat0.280.2833.3333.33-0.09-0.09
BinghamtonAE0.270.2723.3323.33-0.14-0.14
DelawareCAA0.260.2673.5373.530.120.12
MonmouthMAAC0.250.2534.3834.38-0.08-0.08
CornellIvy0.230.233.703.70-0.21-0.21
VermontAE0.220.2266.6766.670.070.07
DrexelCAA0.210.2153.3353.330.010.01
PennIvy0.210.2128.5728.57-0.09-0.09
DartmouthIvy0.200.2038.4638.46-0.05-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.200.2017.8617.86-0.13-0.13
LehighPat0.200.2043.7543.75-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.190.1934.3834.38-0.06-0.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.180.1823.3323.33-0.10-0.10
HarvardIvy0.180.1886.2186.210.130.13
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
RiderMAAC0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.170.1773.5373.530.080.08
BucknellPat0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.170.1721.8821.88-0.09-0.09
ManhattanMAAC0.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
UMBCAE0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
LouisvilleAmer0.160.1685.2985.290.110.11
VillanovaBE0.160.1687.5087.500.120.12
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
Michigan St.B100.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
CanisiusMAAC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
St. John'sBE0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
AlbanyAE0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
MaineAE0.130.1317.8617.86-0.09-0.09
William & MaryCAA0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
FordhamA100.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
NavyPat0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
La SalleA100.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
SienaMAAC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
George MasonA100.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
HamptonMEAC0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
ColgatePat0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Miami FLACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
TempleAmer0.080.0829.0329.03-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
MichiganB100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0821.2121.21-0.05-0.05
UNLVMWC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
XavierBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
ToledoMAC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
ColoradoP120.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
UtahP120.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
UICHorz0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
St. BonaventureA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
StetsonASun0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
IllinoisB100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
MinnesotaB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0678.5778.570.030.03
RadfordBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
WisconsinB100.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
OregonP120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01