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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Fairleigh Dickinson

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:205.0
Current RPI:205
Expected SOS:298
Current SOS:298
Current Record:17-14
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-9
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:221
Expected OOC SOS:173



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-14205.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fairleigh Dickinson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Villanova (4.0)BEA91-54L0%0.0
11-18Army (214.0)PatH85-96L0%0.0
11-21Fordham (176.0)A10A85-62L0%0.0
11-24Delaware (274.0)CAAA73-72L0%0.0
11-28Saint Peter's (208.0)MAACH77-62W100%0.0
11-30Princeton (39.0)IvyA91-61L0%0.0
12-2Temple (60.0)AmerA79-70L0%0.0
12-9Lafayette (329.0)PatA89-91W100%0.0
12-18Towson (150.0)CAAH69-68W100%0.0
12-23Rutgers (294.0)B10A72-64L0%0.0
1-2St. Francis NY (276.0)NECH86-77W100%0.0
1-4Bryant (320.0)NECH80-85L0%0.0
1-7Sacred Heart (258.0)NECA68-80W100%0.0
1-9Central Connecticut (351.0)NECH92-73W100%0.0
1-14St. Francis PA (266.0)NECA59-71W100%0.0
1-16Robert Morris (291.0)NECA64-58L0%0.0
1-21LIU Brooklyn (254.0)NECH101-95W100%0.0
1-24Mount St. Mary's (245.0)NECH72-87L0%0.0
1-28St. Francis PA (266.0)NECH86-82W100%0.0
1-30LIU Brooklyn (254.0)NECA85-88W100%0.0
2-4Wagner (185.0)NECA79-82W100%0.0
2-6St. Francis NY (276.0)NECA85-71L0%0.0
2-11Bryant (320.0)NECA77-91W100%0.0
2-13Robert Morris (291.0)NECH70-72L0%0.0
2-18Wagner (185.0)NECH74-94L0%0.0
2-20Sacred Heart (258.0)NECH86-91L0%0.0
2-25Mount St. Mary's (245.0)NECA54-67W100%0.0
2-27Central Connecticut (351.0)NECA75-81W100%0.0
3-2St. Francis PA (266.0)NECH74-72W100%0.0
3-5Mount St. Mary's (245.0)NECH80-75W100%0.0
3-8Wagner (185.0)NECA79-87W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fairleigh Dickinson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fairleigh Dickinson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fairleigh Dickinson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC26.6126.6156.8656.863.653.65
WagnerNEC5.895.8971.4371.432.522.52
Mount St. Mary'sNEC5.855.8543.3343.33-0.78-0.78
St. Francis PANEC5.785.7846.1546.15-0.44-0.44
LIU BrooklynNEC4.394.3955.1755.170.450.45
St. Francis NYNEC4.354.3544.8344.83-0.45-0.45
Sacred HeartNEC4.334.3339.2939.29-0.93-0.93
Robert MorrisNEC4.314.3126.6726.67-2.01-2.01
Central ConnecticutNEC4.274.2714.8114.81-3.01-3.01
BryantNEC4.254.2521.4321.43-2.43-2.43
LafayettePat1.831.8320.6920.69-1.07-1.07
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.721.7248.2848.28-0.06-0.06
FordhamA101.721.7253.5753.570.120.12
ArmyPat1.721.7256.6756.670.230.23
TowsonCAA1.721.7262.0762.070.420.42
DelawareCAA1.721.7220.6920.69-1.01-1.01
RutgersB101.671.6716.6716.67-1.11-1.11
PrincetonIvy1.671.6776.9276.920.900.90
VillanovaBE1.661.6684.8584.851.161.16
TempleAmer1.661.6664.5264.520.480.48
AmericanPat0.340.3438.7138.71-0.08-0.08
LehighPat0.310.3151.6151.610.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.270.2735.7135.71-0.08-0.08
BucknellPat0.260.2655.1755.170.030.03
Loyola MDPat0.260.2630.0030.00-0.10-0.10
PennIvy0.240.2437.0437.04-0.06-0.06
MaineAE0.240.2426.6726.67-0.11-0.11
BinghamtonAE0.240.2426.6726.67-0.11-0.11
St. John'sBE0.230.2322.5822.58-0.13-0.13
YaleIvy0.220.2277.7877.780.120.12
MarylandB100.210.2175.0075.000.110.11
FairfieldMAAC0.210.2159.3859.380.040.04
Seton HallBE0.200.2075.7675.760.100.10
BrownIvy0.200.2025.9325.93-0.09-0.09
HartfordAE0.190.1928.1228.12-0.08-0.08
Holy CrossPat0.190.1942.4242.42-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.180.1870.5970.590.080.08
MonmouthMAAC0.180.1879.4179.410.110.11
ElonCAA0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.180.1864.5264.520.050.05
DartmouthIvy0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Boston CollegeACC0.160.1621.8821.88-0.09-0.09
NJITASun0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
RiderMAAC0.160.1639.3939.39-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
ColgatePat0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.160.1626.6726.67-0.07-0.07
ColumbiaIvy0.140.1465.5265.520.040.04
AlbanyAE0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1379.4179.410.080.08
George WashingtonA100.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
ManhattanMAAC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
NavyPat0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Ohio St.B100.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
CornellIvy0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.110.1120.0020.00-0.06-0.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
SienaMAAC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
William & MaryCAA0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
MaristMAAC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Boston UniversityPat0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.110.1121.8821.88-0.06-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
NebraskaB100.100.1047.0647.06-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
UMBCAE0.100.1021.8821.88-0.06-0.06
Kent St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
RichmondA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Saint LouisA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
NorthwesternB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
MinnesotaB100.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
FurmanSC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
WashingtonP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
ButlerBE0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
AkronMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
OklahomaB120.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
StanfordP120.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01