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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Central Arkansas

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:282.4
Current RPI:312
Expected SOS:215
Current SOS:206
Current Record:1-6
Expected Record:9-22
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-9
Current OOC Record:1-6
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:288
Expected OOC SOS:57



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-14147.80.04%
16-15162.80.13%
15-16176.30.44%
14-17198.31.37%
13-18218.33.37%
12-19236.86.91%
11-20254.612.54%
10-21271.716.13%
9-22287.018.85%
8-23300.817.47%
7-24312.612.31%
6-25322.66.41%
5-26329.82.86%
4-27336.41.00%
3-28342.90.14%
2-29342.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Arkansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Wisconsin (29.2)B10A79-47L0%0.0
11-14Oklahoma St. (58.3)B12A102-90L0%0.0
11-19Chattanooga (104.3)SCN64-75L0%0.0
11-20Army (208.3)PatH81-76W100%0.0
11-26Western Michigan (212.4)MACA80-63L0%0.0
11-29Little Rock (161.3)SBH87-89L0%0.0
12-1Southeast Missouri St. (266.5)OVCA87-63L0%0.0
12-3Butler (14.7)BEA0-01%-29.6
12-10Little Rock (161.3)SBA0-014%-12.9
12-13Michigan (45.6)B10A0-01%-26.7
12-16Arkansas St. (68.6)SBH0-018%-10.8
12-19Morehead St. (211.9)OVCA0-020%-9.9
12-22Arizona St. (165.8)P12A0-013%-13.6
12-31Sam Houston St. (171.2)SlndH0-036%-4.2
1-2Lamar (290.4)SlndH0-060%3.1
1-5Abilene Christian (201.3)SlndA0-022%-9.3
1-12Houston Baptist (222.2)SlndA0-030%-6.5
1-14Texas A&M Corpus Chris (124.7)SlndA0-012%-13.9
1-18McNeese St. (321.5)SlndA0-056%1.7
1-21New Orleans (298.6)SlndH0-064%4.4
1-25Stephen F. Austin (172.6)SlndA0-017%-11.4
1-28Incarnate Word (248.1)SlndH0-051%0.2
2-2Northwestern St. (292.4)SlndH0-060%3.1
2-4Southeastern Louisiana (203.3)SlndH0-041%-2.6
2-9Abilene Christian (201.3)SlndH0-040%-3.1
2-11Nicholls St. (267.2)SlndH0-064%4.2
2-16Nicholls St. (267.2)SlndA0-043%-2.0
2-18New Orleans (298.6)SlndA0-044%-1.8
2-22Southeastern Louisiana (203.3)SlndA0-023%-8.8
2-25Stephen F. Austin (172.6)SlndH0-033%-5.2
3-4Northwestern St. (292.4)SlndA0-040%-3.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Arkansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Central Arkansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Central Arkansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Central ArkansasSlnd29.1426.3411.1130.33-22.66-10.36
New OrleansSlnd0.604.0225.0029.70-0.30-1.63
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.004.0150.0055.590.000.45
Nicholls St.Slnd0.003.9742.8636.51-0.00-1.07
Northwestern St.Slnd0.003.960.0032.62-0.00-1.38
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.003.9425.0055.13-0.000.40
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.003.9325.0051.90-0.000.15
Little RockSB7.143.2850.0055.300.000.35
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.002.42100.0069.050.000.92
Incarnate WordSlnd0.002.420.0037.45-0.00-0.61
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.002.3950.0058.410.000.40
LamarSlnd0.002.3960.0044.130.00-0.28
McNeese St.Slnd0.002.390.0019.03-0.00-1.48
Houston BaptistSlnd0.002.350.0037.18-0.00-0.60
Arkansas St.SB1.191.7885.7167.930.850.64
Oklahoma St.B127.141.7180.0055.074.290.17
MichiganB100.001.6671.4365.450.000.51
WisconsinB107.141.6671.4372.973.060.76
Southeast Missouri St.OVC7.141.6440.0036.15-1.43-0.46
Morehead St.OVC0.001.6420.0040.48-0.00-0.31
ArmyPat7.141.6440.0047.21-1.43-0.09
ChattanoogaSC7.141.6460.0068.701.430.61
Arizona St.P120.001.6157.1434.350.00-0.50
ButlerBE0.001.61100.0074.880.000.80
Western MichiganMAC7.141.610.0034.18-7.14-0.51
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.3220.0032.60-0.00-0.11
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.3266.6761.340.000.07
TulsaAmer0.000.2160.0039.200.00-0.05
OklahomaB120.000.2183.3351.920.000.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.600.1928.5739.44-0.26-0.04
RiceCUSA0.000.1985.7169.010.000.07
IndianaB100.000.1983.3375.060.000.10
Texas TechB120.000.1885.7163.780.000.05
TulaneAmer0.000.1714.2926.81-0.00-0.08
NorthwesternB100.000.1771.4366.220.000.06
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1620.0036.00-0.00-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.000.1683.3361.150.000.04
TroySB0.000.1633.3332.23-0.00-0.06
UTEPCUSA0.600.1525.0043.26-0.30-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.1450.0043.310.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.1471.4374.450.000.07
MarquetteBE0.000.1471.4363.090.000.04
GeorgetownBE1.040.1350.0047.560.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1325.0038.72-0.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.1283.3362.840.000.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.600.1225.0024.28-0.30-0.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1214.2928.66-0.00-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1257.1447.320.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.1257.1455.810.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1157.1440.590.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1175.0054.320.000.01
USCP120.000.11100.0075.380.000.06
Washington St.P120.000.1150.0036.820.00-0.03
DePaulBE0.000.1180.0035.960.00-0.03
TexasB120.000.1150.0036.240.00-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.710.1166.6756.360.240.01
ToledoMAC0.000.1142.8650.36-0.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.1183.3363.610.000.03
IllinoisB100.600.1157.1442.660.09-0.02
UCLAP120.000.11100.0083.550.000.07
CreightonBE0.450.11100.0076.650.450.06
MinnesotaB100.000.1085.7165.670.000.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.1071.4358.670.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1066.6766.100.000.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0971.4343.020.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0983.3350.740.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0086.250.000.07
BelmontOVC0.000.0940.0061.37-0.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0942.8646.78-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0983.3370.360.000.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0940.0041.65-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0983.3380.700.000.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0950.0043.490.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0942.8661.90-0.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0971.4368.100.000.03
IdahoBSky0.710.0940.0050.88-0.140.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0940.0030.80-0.00-0.03
OhioMAC0.000.0980.0068.320.000.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.0925.0056.92-0.000.01
BaylorB120.000.08100.0074.460.000.04
FurmanSC0.000.0820.0049.38-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0840.0027.05-0.00-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.710.0866.6770.740.240.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.080.0024.25-0.00-0.04
BucknellPat0.000.0875.0067.660.000.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0850.0045.410.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0860.0067.410.000.03
LehighPat0.000.0833.3367.01-0.000.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0857.1464.940.000.02
North CarolinaACC1.640.0885.7180.011.170.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.080.0023.46-0.00-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.080.0034.23-0.00-0.03
VillanovaBE0.600.08100.0083.120.600.05
TCUB120.000.08100.0059.480.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.0857.1452.630.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.0885.7170.990.000.03
MarylandB100.000.0885.7156.490.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0850.0061.590.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0885.7172.660.000.04
RutgersB100.000.0883.3344.770.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0850.0043.610.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0625.0024.66-0.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0650.0045.920.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0650.0057.480.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.060.0021.30-0.00-0.04
UABCUSA0.000.0657.1461.940.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0685.7159.740.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0650.0053.560.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0628.5728.46-0.00-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0616.6731.91-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0650.0027.250.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0685.7162.410.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.0614.2933.07-0.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0628.5727.50-0.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.0683.3374.620.000.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.0683.3359.600.000.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0650.0052.140.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0671.4349.590.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0650.0053.050.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0675.0064.960.000.02
VMISC0.000.060.0021.15-0.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0616.6718.96-0.00-0.04
WoffordSC0.000.060.0033.58-0.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0666.6758.420.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3335.92-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0657.1469.300.000.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0614.2929.81-0.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0628.5723.76-0.00-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.450.0616.6732.62-0.30-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0657.1448.860.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.0616.6735.65-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0650.0052.330.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0650.0053.530.000.00
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0041.31-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0683.3361.490.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0055.850.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0687.5075.320.000.03
Holy CrossPat0.000.0642.8647.69-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.060.0042.55-0.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.0633.3331.87-0.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0640.0067.95-0.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0633.3340.49-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0628.5743.62-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0614.2928.15-0.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.30-0.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0019.30-0.00-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.710.0650.0035.230.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.450.050.0017.30-0.45-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.600.0528.5730.29-0.26-0.02
TennesseeSEC1.040.0525.0034.47-0.52-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0516.6730.27-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.600.0571.4366.730.260.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0571.4368.970.000.02
KansasB120.000.0585.7176.170.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0585.7155.890.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0571.4356.280.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0571.4354.520.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0528.5733.92-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0583.3380.550.000.03
XavierBE0.000.05100.0074.800.000.03
UtahP120.000.0575.0061.040.000.01
IowaB100.000.0542.8644.33-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0562.5043.960.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0575.0059.100.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0383.3357.990.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3345.60-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0360.0052.760.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0366.6775.370.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.040.000.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6751.460.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0333.3340.39-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0360.0039.610.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0340.0050.71-0.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0385.7155.550.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0350.0046.670.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.600.0350.0029.280.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.600.0371.4356.050.260.00
Western IllinoisSum0.600.030.0022.69-0.60-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0042.710.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0013.30-0.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.0342.8640.94-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.600.0350.0058.980.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0333.3343.64-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0340.0050.91-0.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.600.0342.8642.47-0.09-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.600.0383.3362.080.400.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.600.0320.0034.22-0.36-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.030.0028.15-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0350.0051.820.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0033.010.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0371.4371.570.000.01
OaklandHorz0.600.0383.3378.430.400.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0316.6729.36-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.600.0383.3377.170.400.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6756.020.000.00
CampbellBSth0.600.0325.0033.54-0.30-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0385.7180.960.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.600.0333.3338.76-0.20-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3346.81-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.35-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0061.810.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6740.71-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.000.0362.5071.630.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0371.4386.030.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0371.4359.850.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0383.3368.880.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0333.3348.71-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0328.5747.72-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0312.5048.98-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0340.0057.49-0.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0325.0040.37-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0375.0074.990.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0080.780.000.02
SyracuseACC0.450.0366.6770.140.150.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.920.000.01