live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Central Arkansas

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:237.0
Current RPI:263
Expected SOS:324
Current SOS:347
Current Record:9-11
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:4-4
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-7
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:256
Expected OOC SOS:333



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-11173.80.24%
18-12188.22.29%
17-13204.18.97%
16-14219.419.39%
15-15233.927.78%
14-16248.523.47%
13-17264.112.80%
12-18279.74.21%
11-19295.00.78%
10-20309.00.05%
9-21326.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Arkansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Baylor (58.6)B12A107-66L0%0.0
11-15UCLA (63.4)P12A106-101L0%0.0
11-19Alcorn St. (343.0)SWACH102-76W100%0.0
11-21South Carolina St. (325.7)MEACA64-73W100%0.0
11-25Tulsa (128.6)AmerA92-72L0%0.0
11-27Morehead St. (262.1)OVCH82-78W100%0.0
11-29Little Rock (293.5)SBA71-65L0%0.0
12-4San Francisco (171.9)WCCA78-76L0%0.0
12-6California (190.3)P12A69-96W100%0.0
12-9Little Rock (293.5)SBH69-54W100%0.0
12-17Morehead St. (262.1)OVCA98-94L0%0.0
12-20Oregon (67.2)P12A96-82L0%0.0
12-28Texas A&M Corpus Chris (335.5)SlndH81-69W100%0.0
12-31Southeastern Louisiana (205.0)SlndH69-73L0%0.0
1-3Sam Houston St. (221.0)SlndA82-76L0%0.0
1-6Lamar (226.9)SlndA91-100W100%0.0
1-10Incarnate Word (338.0)SlndH92-76W100%0.0
1-13Nicholls St. (200.2)SlndA86-79L0%0.0
1-17New Orleans (218.0)SlndA57-81W100%0.0
1-20Abilene Christian (227.7)SlndH63-80L0%0.0
1-24Stephen F. Austin (123.5)SlndH0-040%-2.9
1-27Northwestern St. (338.0)SlndA0-076%8.0
2-3Southeastern Louisiana (205.0)SlndA0-041%-2.4
2-7Houston Baptist (334.4)SlndA0-062%3.4
2-14McNeese St. (297.1)SlndH0-081%9.8
2-17Nicholls St. (200.2)SlndH0-064%3.9
2-21Stephen F. Austin (123.5)SlndA0-020%-9.3
2-24Abilene Christian (227.7)SlndA0-045%-1.4
2-28Sam Houston St. (221.0)SlndH0-059%2.5
3-3Northwestern St. (338.0)SlndH0-090%14.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Arkansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Central Arkansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Central Arkansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Central ArkansasSlnd26.7626.4051.1953.790.642.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd3.054.1440.0047.41-0.61-0.21
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.654.1050.0053.170.000.26
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.404.0980.0079.550.242.42
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.734.0950.0050.650.000.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.404.087.1414.66-0.34-2.89
Nicholls St.Slnd2.694.0646.6750.04-0.180.00
Little RockSB5.083.4018.7523.42-3.17-1.81
Morehead St.OVC5.003.3320.0026.98-3.00-1.53
New OrleansSlnd2.842.4940.0047.05-0.57-0.15
LamarSlnd2.982.4953.3357.000.200.35
McNeese St.Slnd0.402.4828.5731.78-0.17-0.90
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.882.488.3324.25-2.40-1.28
Houston BaptistSlnd0.462.465.8818.66-0.41-1.54
Incarnate WordSlnd2.812.458.3320.96-2.34-1.42
UCLAP122.701.8063.1660.740.710.39
BaylorB122.751.7958.8254.580.490.16
OregonP122.561.7563.1662.650.670.44
CaliforniaP122.561.7538.8932.19-0.57-0.62
TulsaAmer2.581.7052.6351.710.140.06
Alcorn St.SWAC2.571.6913.3326.43-1.88-0.80
South Carolina St.MEAC2.561.6929.4132.85-1.06-0.58
San FranciscoWCC2.501.6747.3746.97-0.13-0.10
Louisiana MonroeSB0.210.3026.6729.04-0.10-0.13
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.370.3083.3381.370.250.19
TulaneAmer0.290.2163.1657.890.080.03
LipscombASun0.290.1952.9459.340.020.03
Texas St.SB0.310.1857.8950.210.050.00
UtahP120.130.1863.1659.710.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.210.1827.7831.11-0.09-0.07
Coastal CarolinaSB0.160.1827.7838.14-0.07-0.04
StanfordP120.190.1755.0050.370.020.00
Arizona St.P120.190.1678.9576.130.110.09
USCP120.130.1671.4368.280.050.06
LSUSEC0.160.1561.1153.170.030.01
BelmontOVC0.000.1571.4374.660.000.08
OklahomaB120.060.1577.7867.910.030.05
MemphisAmer0.340.1565.0058.540.100.02
ArizonaP120.130.1480.0078.940.080.08
Oregon St.P120.130.1457.8950.840.020.00
WashingtonP120.130.1470.0061.440.050.03
Washington St.P120.130.1447.3741.44-0.01-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.1311.1117.680.00-0.08
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.270.1345.0045.03-0.03-0.01
HoustonAmer0.240.1378.9572.990.140.06
SMUAmer0.080.1370.0070.570.030.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.160.1227.7829.10-0.07-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1231.5832.720.00-0.04
IdahoBSky0.160.1264.7166.850.050.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.290.1270.0068.220.120.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.150.1242.1143.51-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.150.1226.3231.50-0.07-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.1235.2940.480.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.290.1257.8953.190.050.01
TexasB120.070.1263.1657.630.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.150.1236.8444.11-0.04-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.150.120.0010.67-0.15-0.10
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1272.2258.920.060.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.140.1233.3332.94-0.05-0.04
Texas TechB120.140.1278.9571.810.080.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.200.1221.0539.48-0.12-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.210.1221.0544.26-0.12-0.01
UCFAmer0.140.1268.4260.860.050.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1133.3337.230.00-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.140.1166.6765.370.050.04
Georgia St.SB0.140.1166.6765.520.050.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.210.1118.7536.82-0.13-0.03
Iowa St.B120.210.1161.1147.220.05-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1168.4254.090.050.01
San DiegoWCC0.200.1163.1657.540.050.02
Wichita St.Amer0.200.1178.9577.380.110.06
ColoradoP120.130.1160.0053.720.030.01
MississippiSEC0.170.1052.6345.860.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0945.0041.33-0.01-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.150.0968.4257.740.050.01
UTSACUSA0.160.0941.1839.65-0.03-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.0966.6765.640.050.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0910.0019.630.00-0.05
PresbyterianBSth0.150.0927.7827.10-0.07-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.160.0980.9583.260.100.06
South AlabamaSB0.080.0950.0045.870.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.140.0957.8954.500.020.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0927.7840.97-0.03-0.02
XavierBE0.220.0985.7180.080.150.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0916.6724.26-0.04-0.05
CreightonBE0.210.0975.0070.700.110.04
Oral RobertsSum0.200.0930.0032.52-0.08-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0927.7834.50-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.089.5217.90-0.05-0.05
WisconsinB100.200.0850.0046.300.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.060.0873.6862.720.030.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0890.4888.960.050.06
ConnecticutAmer0.130.0852.6347.390.01-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.170.0733.3334.10-0.06-0.02
FloridaSEC0.100.0673.6871.560.050.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0643.7554.110.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.070.0637.5031.76-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0610.5316.75-0.06-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0630.0036.50-0.03-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0644.4446.000.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0658.8249.760.01-0.00
ButlerBE0.150.0666.6763.070.050.02
CampbellBSth0.070.0647.0647.41-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0662.5058.690.020.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.150.0629.4133.93-0.06-0.02
IUPUIHorz0.150.0627.7829.83-0.07-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0638.8943.43-0.02-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0616.6716.160.00-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0652.6355.290.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.150.0668.4263.650.050.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6763.200.000.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0670.5975.950.000.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0644.4450.310.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.0666.6773.210.050.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.150.0636.8432.76-0.04-0.02
UMBCAE0.080.0655.5655.540.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.070.0611.1118.00-0.06-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0666.6766.020.030.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0694.7490.310.070.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0668.4270.810.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0658.8262.820.010.02
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0636.8435.57-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0655.5656.740.010.01
YaleIvy0.150.0641.1847.56-0.03-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.070.0644.4444.92-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0663.1661.020.020.01
SamfordSC0.070.0627.7832.66-0.03-0.02
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0647.3748.77-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.0629.4133.20-0.06-0.02
DuquesneA100.140.0670.0058.090.060.01
UC DavisBW0.140.0658.8262.440.020.01
DetroitHorz0.060.0621.0525.97-0.04-0.03
BradleyMVC0.140.0665.0057.880.040.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.0670.0071.230.060.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0620.0041.730.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.0657.1460.410.020.01
TroySB0.000.0635.2942.760.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.140.0660.0062.030.030.01
BYUWCC0.060.0680.9576.240.040.03
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0689.4785.550.050.04
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0642.1132.47-0.01-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.130.0647.3746.09-0.01-0.00
KansasB120.070.0684.2179.750.050.03
PacificWCC0.000.0645.0044.470.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.130.0610.5318.34-0.10-0.04
PortlandWCC0.060.0627.7827.28-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.000.0635.0026.120.00-0.03
TCUB120.070.0673.6865.600.030.02
TempleAmer0.060.0652.6351.740.000.00
West VirginiaB120.070.0684.2178.170.050.03
Portland St.BSky0.130.0558.8263.210.020.01
UMKCWAC0.100.0321.0524.75-0.06-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.100.0366.6755.940.030.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0344.4446.650.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0340.0030.870.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.080.0361.9065.160.020.01
St. John'sBE0.080.0347.3742.16-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.080.0361.1164.130.020.01
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0344.4450.08-0.010.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0355.0052.470.010.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0385.0083.200.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0370.0060.470.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0342.1146.090.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0350.0052.460.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0365.0054.670.020.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0325.0031.45-0.03-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.030.009.09-0.07-0.02
FurmanSC0.070.0366.6768.540.020.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0310.5327.29-0.05-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0333.3333.77-0.02-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0315.7920.91-0.05-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0329.4139.630.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0365.0056.340.020.00
WinthropBSth0.070.0350.0059.450.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.070.0323.5328.21-0.03-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0356.2556.830.010.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0317.6519.30-0.04-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0338.8946.05-0.01-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.060.0352.6343.110.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.060.0373.6867.970.030.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0340.0043.35-0.01-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0350.0050.860.000.00
MichiganB100.060.0376.1970.740.030.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0385.7182.090.040.02
RadfordBSth0.060.0357.8958.850.010.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0316.6724.45-0.04-0.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0373.6872.380.030.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0352.9459.250.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0330.0039.93-0.03-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0317.6523.86-0.04-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0370.5969.630.030.01
VCUA100.070.0360.0059.700.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0352.9452.230.000.00
WoffordSC0.070.0368.7563.690.020.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0361.1158.700.010.00
Boise St.MWC0.060.0378.9576.990.040.01
DePaulBE0.060.0342.1134.31-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0366.6763.420.020.01