Central Arkansas

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	286.0
Current RPI:	286
Expected SOS:	312
Current SOS:	312
Current Record:	11-17
Expected Record:	11-17
Current Conf Record:	7-12
Expected Conf Record:	7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-9
Current OOC Record:	4-5
Expected OOC Record:	4-5
Expected OOC RPI:	232
Expected OOC SOS:	268

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-17	286.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Arkansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Arizona St. (90.0)	P12	A	79-64	L	0%
11-21	Arkansas St. (163.0)	SB	H	72-73	L	0%
11-24	Sacramento St. (283.0)	BSky	H	68-71	L	0%
11-28	Eastern Illinois (276.0)	OVC	A	72-74	W	100%
12-5	Tennessee Martin (312.0)	OVC	H	87-86	W	100%
12-8	Southeast Missouri St. (216.0)	OVC	A	85-88	W	100%
12-16	Oklahoma St. (27.0)	B12	A	91-63	L	0%
12-22	Mississippi St. (232.0)	SEC	A	79-72	L	0%
1-3	Nicholls St. (296.0)	Slnd	A	83-79	L	0%
1-5	Southeastern Louisiana (227.0)	Slnd	A	72-68	L	0%
1-10	Stephen F. Austin (65.0)	Slnd	H	69-77	L	0%
1-12	Northwestern St. (78.0)	Slnd	H	88-100	L	0%
1-17	Sam Houston St. (224.0)	Slnd	A	63-52	L	0%
1-19	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (323.0)	Slnd	A	67-76	W	100%
1-24	McNeese St. (246.0)	Slnd	H	103-98	W	100%
1-26	Lamar (335.0)	Slnd	H	88-59	W	100%
1-31	Southeastern Louisiana (227.0)	Slnd	H	69-70	L	0%
2-2	Nicholls St. (296.0)	Slnd	H	79-76	W	100%
2-7	Stephen F. Austin (65.0)	Slnd	A	72-36	L	0%
2-9	Northwestern St. (78.0)	Slnd	A	93-73	L	0%
2-14	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (323.0)	Slnd	H	68-75	L	0%
2-16	Sam Houston St. (224.0)	Slnd	H	75-80	L	0%
2-19	Oral Roberts (151.0)	Slnd	A	94-65	L	0%
2-23	SIU Edwardsville (304.0)	OVC	H	80-78	W	100%
2-28	Lamar (335.0)	Slnd	A	99-106	W	100%
3-2	McNeese St. (246.0)	Slnd	A	67-68	W	100%
3-9	Oral Roberts (151.0)	Slnd	H	86-84	W	100%
3-13	Sam Houston St. (224.0)	Slnd	N	69-63	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Arkansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Central Arkansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Central Arkansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Central Arkansas	Slnd	26.52	26.52	39.55	39.55	-5.54	-5.54
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	6.47	6.47	39.29	39.29	-1.39	-1.39
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	4.77	4.77	33.33	33.33	-1.59	-1.59
McNeese St.	Slnd	4.76	4.76	42.31	42.31	-0.73	-0.73
Northwestern St.	Slnd	4.76	4.76	68.00	68.00	1.71	1.71
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	4.73	4.73	84.00	84.00	3.22	3.22
Oral Roberts	Slnd	4.71	4.71	55.17	55.17	0.49	0.49
Nicholls St.	Slnd	4.68	4.68	28.57	28.57	-2.01	-2.01
Lamar	Slnd	4.65	4.65	10.34	10.34	-3.69	-3.69
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	4.61	4.61	15.38	15.38	-3.19	-3.19
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	2.13	2.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	2.01	2.01	36.67	36.67	-0.54	-0.54
Tennessee Martin	OVC	2.00	2.00	25.93	25.93	-0.96	-0.96
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	1.96	1.96	29.17	29.17	-0.82	-0.82
Arkansas St.	SB	1.88	1.88	58.62	58.62	0.32	0.32
Arizona St.	P12	1.82	1.82	62.50	62.50	0.45	0.45
Sacramento St.	BSky	1.81	1.81	42.31	42.31	-0.28	-0.28
Mississippi St.	SEC	1.79	1.79	29.03	29.03	-0.75	-0.75
Oklahoma St.	B12	1.79	1.79	74.19	74.19	0.86	0.86
Oklahoma	B12	0.31	0.31	64.52	64.52	0.09	0.09
Austin Peay	OVC	0.28	0.28	20.69	20.69	-0.16	-0.16
Murray St.	OVC	0.28	0.28	65.52	65.52	0.09	0.09
Texas A&M	SEC	0.22	0.22	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.22	0.22	80.65	80.65	0.14	0.14
Arkansas	SEC	0.21	0.21	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
New Orleans	ind	0.20	0.20	18.18	18.18	-0.13	-0.13
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.19	0.19	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Belmont	OVC	0.18	0.18	80.00	80.00	0.11	0.11
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.18	0.18	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
North Texas	SB	0.18	0.18	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Texas	B12	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.16	0.16	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.16	0.16	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.15	0.15	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.15	0.15	37.04	37.04	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.15	0.15	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.15	0.15	34.38	34.38	-0.05	-0.05
Missouri	SEC	0.15	0.15	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.15	0.15	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
Texas Tech	B12	0.15	0.15	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Troy	SB	0.15	0.15	36.36	36.36	-0.04	-0.04
Baylor	B12	0.14	0.14	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.14	0.14	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Florida International	SB	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	57.69	57.69	0.02	0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
South Alabama	SB	0.12	0.12	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.12	0.12	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.12	0.12	14.81	14.81	-0.09	-0.09
UC Davis	BW	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.12	0.12	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Samford	SC	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Florida	SEC	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Charlotte	A10	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.12	0.12	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Texas St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Arizona	P12	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Western Illinois	Sum	0.10	0.10	71.43	71.43	0.04	0.04
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	23.08	23.08	-0.05	-0.05
North Carolina	ACC	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.09	0.09	88.24	88.24	0.07	0.07
Marquette	BE	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Western Kentucky	SB	0.09	0.09	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Utah	P12	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.09	0.09	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Liberty	BSth	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.09	0.09	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
UC Irvine	BW	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
UCLA	P12	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Campbell	BSth	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	-0.07	-0.07
Idaho St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Long Beach St.	BW	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.07	0.07	79.31	79.31	0.04	0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.05	-0.05
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	WAC	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Long Island	NEC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Pacific	BW	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Texas Christian	B12	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.00	10.00	-0.03	-0.03
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	93.75	93.75	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
California	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00