live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 21, 2014.


Central Arkansas

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:340.1
Current RPI:347
Expected SOS:306
Current SOS:285
Current Record:0-10
Expected Record:5-24
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-14
Current OOC Record:0-10
Expected OOC Record:0-11
Expected OOC RPI:349
Expected OOC SOS:256



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-17256.00.01%
11-18296.00.03%
10-19300.50.26%
9-20314.51.31%
8-21322.83.69%
7-22329.68.90%
6-23335.716.19%
5-24340.422.22%
4-25344.022.09%
3-26346.615.76%
2-27348.37.38%
1-28349.31.89%
0-29349.90.26%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Arkansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Creighton (129.9)BEA104-77L0%0.0
11-16Nebraska Omaha (201.1)SumA100-75L0%0.0
11-18Nebraska (104.2)B10A82-56L0%0.0
11-22Southeast Missouri St. (250.5)OVCH68-74L0%0.0
11-25Charleston Southern (205.4)BSthA80-67L0%0.0
11-29Arkansas Little Rock (283.9)SBA85-71L0%0.0
12-1Arkansas St. (211.2)SBH49-67L0%0.0
12-6Troy (280.3)SBA85-73L0%0.0
12-17New Mexico (101.6)MWCA76-55L0%0.0
12-21Coastal Carolina (130.5)BSthH55-72L0%0.0
12-29Morehead St. (251.0)OVCH0-027%-7.1
1-3Abilene Christian (342.8)SlndA0-051%0.3
1-6Texas A&M Corpus Chris (303.9)SlndH0-049%-0.2
1-10Lamar (251.4)SlndA0-016%-11.8
1-13Stephen F. Austin (68.4)SlndH0-06%-18.1
1-19Houston Baptist (275.5)SlndA0-017%-11.3
1-24Nicholls St. (332.6)SlndH0-064%4.3
1-26New Orleans (234.1)SlndA0-012%-14.0
2-3Northwestern St. (259.9)SlndH0-036%-4.1
2-7New Orleans (234.1)SlndH0-032%-5.4
2-10Southeastern Louisiana (231.4)SlndA0-010%-15.1
2-13Incarnate Word (104.0)SlndH0-011%-14.2
2-16Northwestern St. (259.9)SlndA0-014%-12.6
2-21Sam Houston St. (102.8)SlndH0-08%-16.7
2-24McNeese St. (252.7)SlndH0-034%-4.7
2-28Southeastern Louisiana (231.4)SlndH0-029%-6.5
3-2Sam Houston St. (102.8)SlndA0-02%-25.3
3-5Nicholls St. (332.6)SlndA0-036%-4.2
3-8McNeese St. (252.7)SlndA0-013%-13.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Arkansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Central Arkansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Central Arkansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Central ArkansasSlnd27.8926.340.0015.49-27.89-18.18
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.254.3320.0043.34-0.15-0.58
Nicholls St.Slnd0.364.310.0015.56-0.36-2.97
McNeese St.Slnd0.004.2820.0041.55-0.00-0.72
Northwestern St.Slnd0.004.2816.6736.42-0.00-1.16
New OrleansSlnd0.004.2720.0043.57-0.00-0.55
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.004.1555.5672.220.001.84
LamarSlnd0.362.5914.2934.31-0.26-0.81
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.002.5633.3333.83-0.00-0.83
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.002.5666.6777.500.001.41
Incarnate WordSlnd0.282.5580.0076.260.171.34
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.002.5514.2913.32-0.00-1.87
Houston BaptistSlnd0.002.5116.6734.38-0.00-0.79
TroySB5.001.9233.3338.13-1.67-0.45
Arkansas St.SB5.001.8833.3347.38-1.67-0.10
Arkansas Little RockSB5.001.8528.5733.40-2.14-0.61
NebraskaB105.441.8262.5041.941.36-0.29
Southeast Missouri St.OVC5.001.8133.3343.97-1.67-0.22
Charleston SouthernBSth5.001.7933.3347.13-1.67-0.10
Coastal CarolinaBSth5.001.7957.1470.410.710.73
Morehead St.OVC0.001.7616.6736.16-0.00-0.49
CreightonBE5.281.7566.6747.381.76-0.09
Nebraska OmahaSum5.281.7544.4453.43-0.590.12
New MexicoMWC5.001.7270.0060.442.000.36
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.3237.5049.56-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.540.3228.5738.37-0.23-0.07
Texas St.SB0.000.2550.0051.190.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.230.2370.0061.360.090.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.2255.5656.250.000.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.2144.4449.08-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.1941.6751.30-0.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1933.3338.71-0.00-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1966.6762.820.000.05
Georgia St.SB0.000.1966.6771.560.000.08
South AlabamaSB0.000.190.0032.85-0.00-0.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1772.7367.570.000.06
PresbyterianBSth0.000.160.008.70-0.00-0.13
MississippiSEC1.220.1670.0052.340.490.01
Austin PeayOVC0.360.1620.0029.06-0.21-0.07
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.440.1630.0040.39-0.18-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.630.1666.6764.890.210.05
OklahomaB120.190.1570.0062.800.080.04
South DakotaSum0.190.1533.3343.01-0.06-0.02
UNLVMWC0.000.1566.6750.030.000.00
TCUB120.000.14100.0068.320.000.05
IndianaB100.000.1481.8263.040.000.04
LSUSEC0.000.1380.0063.750.000.04
CampbellBSth0.000.1325.0043.91-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1337.5049.96-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.1366.6761.820.000.03
LibertyBSth0.000.1325.0035.29-0.00-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.000.1320.0025.91-0.00-0.06
WisconsinB100.000.1390.9188.760.000.10
RadfordBSth0.000.1360.0062.090.000.03
North TexasCUSA0.190.1350.0041.130.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.500.1360.0056.010.100.02
WinthropBSth0.000.1225.0044.51-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.190.1240.0042.88-0.04-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.1237.5031.93-0.00-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.250.1054.5557.750.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.250.1054.5545.090.02-0.01
UCLAP120.310.1066.6754.590.100.01
ArkansasSEC0.250.1080.0072.430.150.05
BaylorB120.000.1090.0073.480.000.05
MichiganB100.000.1050.0040.340.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.360.1044.4437.49-0.04-0.02
ToledoMAC0.360.1063.6461.500.100.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1012.5039.50-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.620.1027.2735.54-0.28-0.03
UMKCWAC0.560.1020.0040.46-0.34-0.02
WoffordSC0.360.1077.7875.500.200.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1036.3645.36-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.090.0039.01-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0960.0064.830.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0912.5026.95-0.00-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.000.0963.6472.270.000.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.310.0918.1822.91-0.20-0.05
BelmontOVC0.000.0963.6464.930.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0950.0068.830.000.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0950.0037.510.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.090.0014.49-0.00-0.06
Colorado St.MWC0.000.09100.0078.190.000.05
Boise St.MWC0.000.0977.7872.900.000.04
Air ForceMWC0.250.0950.0055.800.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0970.0059.760.000.02
MarquetteBE0.250.0960.0049.390.05-0.00
XavierBE0.000.0972.7367.750.000.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0716.6726.53-0.00-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0785.7170.650.000.03
Texas TechB120.000.0790.0055.400.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0745.4537.63-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0762.5041.050.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0750.0042.770.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0763.6442.700.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.630.0654.5541.660.06-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0660.0076.800.000.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0640.0037.46-0.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.560.0633.3337.25-0.19-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.0675.0065.050.000.02
IowaB100.000.0666.6759.170.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0650.0054.440.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0627.2728.77-0.00-0.03
MarylandB100.000.0691.6772.610.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0680.0068.200.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0054.280.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0640.0043.53-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.360.0666.6759.240.120.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0670.0059.860.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.280.0670.0064.920.110.02
Green BayHorz0.310.0677.7878.340.170.03
MarshallCUSA0.360.0622.2236.55-0.20-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.280.0633.3343.26-0.09-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0681.8282.150.000.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.230.0636.3637.27-0.06-0.02
NevadaMWC0.250.0611.1125.40-0.19-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.190.060.0011.31-0.19-0.05
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0627.2729.51-0.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.0690.9190.730.000.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.450.0633.3361.51-0.150.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0680.0058.040.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0672.7372.880.000.03
South FloridaAmer0.000.0640.0041.10-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0688.8956.070.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0655.5635.910.00-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0654.5548.690.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0680.0073.560.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.0672.7368.580.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.0660.0034.330.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0675.0057.450.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0681.8263.950.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0688.8965.680.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0083.420.000.04
PrincetonIvy0.000.0433.3341.93-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0445.4552.17-0.000.00
AuburnSEC0.310.0350.0039.580.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.310.0340.0049.35-0.06-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0390.0065.820.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.360.0375.0061.160.180.01
SMUAmer0.000.0372.7375.960.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0320.0053.25-0.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.360.0327.2743.96-0.16-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.360.0360.0057.740.070.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.250.030.0028.78-0.25-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.360.030.0026.25-0.36-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.250.0375.0067.220.130.01
DuquesneA100.000.0337.5033.78-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.360.0366.6763.320.120.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0375.0058.740.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.250.0325.0023.65-0.13-0.02
MissouriSEC0.250.0340.0032.37-0.05-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0337.5037.29-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.360.0337.5027.75-0.09-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0330.0032.35-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.310.0370.0068.400.120.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6754.450.000.00
Kansas St.B120.250.0363.6440.220.07-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.310.0377.7858.610.170.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0336.3650.65-0.000.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0360.0061.850.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6766.950.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.039.0917.38-0.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0312.5029.75-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0325.0034.43-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.250.0337.5056.99-0.060.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0390.9183.170.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0391.6755.080.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.280.0366.6773.340.090.01
RutgersB100.000.0354.5532.610.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0363.6436.240.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.250.0340.0046.92-0.05-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0337.5035.62-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0363.6464.150.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0371.4363.340.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0327.2732.26-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0330.0035.75-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.230.0360.0038.770.05-0.01
George MasonA100.230.0333.3329.75-0.08-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.230.0311.1129.44-0.18-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.006.54-0.00-0.02
USCP120.230.0363.6440.160.06-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.230.0381.8272.960.140.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.190.0354.5548.910.02-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.190.0350.0071.160.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.190.0362.5057.910.050.00