Central Arkansas

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	298.6
Current RPI:	288
Expected SOS:	309
Current SOS:	246
Current Record:	5-13
Expected Record:	8-18
Current Conf Record:	2-7
Expected Conf Record:	5-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.02%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-8
Current OOC Record:	3-6
Expected OOC Record:	3-7
Expected OOC RPI:	263
Expected OOC SOS:	273

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-14	235.4	0.17%
11-15	253.4	1.60%
10-16	270.6	6.51%
9-17	285.5	18.87%
8-18	296.8	29.44%
7-19	307.1	27.97%
6-20	318.3	12.72%
5-21	328.5	2.71%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Arkansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Stanford (90.1)	P12	A	91-52	L	0%	0.0
11-13	Sacramento St. (304.4)	BSky	A	75-54	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Eastern Illinois (293.1)	OVC	H	107-96	W	100%	0.0
11-30	Tennessee Martin (322.4)	OVC	A	68-75	W	100%	0.0
12-5	Southeast Missouri St. (241.0)	OVC	H	88-72	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Arkansas St. (228.4)	SB	A	71-64	L	0%	0.0
12-19	Iowa (140.8)	B10	A	105-64	L	0%	0.0
12-21	Drake (135.6)	MVC	A	87-64	L	0%	0.0
12-28	Nevada Las Vegas (9.9)	MWC	A	124-75	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Lamar (101.7)	Slnd	A	103-67	L	0%	0.0
1-11	Stephen F. Austin (256.1)	Slnd	H	56-67	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Northwestern St. (177.9)	Slnd	A	73-77	W	100%	0.0
1-18	Nicholls St. (313.6)	Slnd	H	99-76	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Lamar (101.7)	Slnd	H	78-92	L	0%	0.0
1-25	Southeastern Louisiana (325.8)	Slnd	A	75-71	L	0%	0.0
1-29	McNeese St. (205.8)	Slnd	A	87-76	L	0%	0.0
2-1	Northwestern St. (177.9)	Slnd	H	68-79	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Texas Arlington (100.9)	Slnd	H	61-69	L	0%	0.0
2-8	Texas St. (317.2)	Slnd	A	0-0		28%	-6.4
2-11	McNeese St. (205.8)	Slnd	H	0-0		39%	-3.1
2-15	Sam Houston St. (285.7)	Slnd	A	0-0		26%	-7.0
2-18	Louisiana Tech (202.9)	WAC	A	0-0		14%	-11.6
2-22	Nicholls St. (313.6)	Slnd	A	0-0		54%	1.2
2-25	Southeastern Louisiana (325.8)	Slnd	H	0-0		65%	4.2
2-29	Texas San Antonio (170.6)	Slnd	H	0-0		16%	-10.7
3-3	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (316.2)	Slnd	A	0-0		31%	-5.3

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Arkansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Central Arkansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Central Arkansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Central Arkansas	Slnd	26.47	26.25	29.49	32.40	-10.86	-9.24
McNeese St.	Slnd	3.34	4.72	41.18	42.26	-0.59	-0.73
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	3.40	4.72	23.53	26.35	-1.80	-2.23
Lamar	Slnd	6.10	4.69	57.89	64.87	0.96	1.40
Northwestern St.	Slnd	5.91	4.66	55.56	54.79	0.66	0.45
Nicholls St.	Slnd	3.27	4.62	26.32	23.81	-1.55	-2.42
Texas Arlington	Slnd	3.13	2.66	75.00	75.13	1.57	1.34
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.64	2.63	17.39	19.10	-0.42	-1.62
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.48	2.63	57.14	59.90	0.07	0.52
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.37	2.62	26.32	28.15	-0.17	-1.15
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	3.00	2.62	41.18	46.09	-0.53	-0.21
Texas St.	Slnd	0.51	2.62	22.22	25.78	-0.28	-1.27
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	3.17	2.28	50.00	49.01	0.00	-0.05
Tennessee Martin	OVC	3.10	2.24	4.55	10.08	-2.82	-1.79
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.36	2.17	42.86	42.01	-0.05	-0.35
Eastern Illinois	OVC	2.97	2.06	35.00	35.87	-0.89	-0.58
Arkansas St.	SB	3.04	2.06	34.78	36.23	-0.92	-0.57
Sacramento St.	BSky	2.92	2.03	26.32	30.54	-1.38	-0.79
Iowa	B10	2.84	1.96	52.17	47.72	0.12	-0.09
Drake	MVC	2.84	1.95	50.00	48.22	0.00	-0.07
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	2.78	1.92	81.82	80.79	1.77	1.18
Stanford	P12	2.78	1.92	68.18	67.24	1.01	0.66
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.53	0.41	8.70	8.99	-0.44	-0.34
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.34	0.28	54.17	54.76	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.33	0.24	34.78	38.43	-0.10	-0.06
Murray St.	OVC	0.38	0.24	100.00	94.58	0.38	0.21
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.34	0.23	43.48	44.26	-0.04	-0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.25	0.21	32.00	35.39	-0.09	-0.06
Texas	B12	0.14	0.18	62.50	62.20	0.03	0.04
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.20	0.18	25.00	28.48	-0.10	-0.08
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.21	0.18	43.48	43.27	-0.03	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.19	0.18	26.32	29.64	-0.09	-0.07
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.08	0.17	69.57	69.00	0.03	0.07
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.26	0.17	60.87	59.85	0.06	0.03
California	P12	0.20	0.17	75.00	74.62	0.10	0.08
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.26	0.17	19.05	24.60	-0.16	-0.09
Auburn	SEC	0.15	0.15	54.17	47.95	0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.15	0.14	30.43	25.84	-0.06	-0.07
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.19	0.14	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.19	0.14	45.45	47.09	-0.02	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.00	0.14	47.62	44.58	-0.00	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.25	0.14	56.52	53.06	0.03	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.20	0.14	69.57	64.49	0.08	0.04
San Jose St.	WAC	0.00	0.14	27.27	26.96	-0.00	-0.06
North Texas	SB	0.18	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fresno St.	WAC	0.06	0.13	39.13	44.46	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.07	0.13	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.25	0.13	79.17	74.20	0.15	0.06
Ohio	MAC	0.25	0.13	81.82	77.18	0.16	0.07
Texas Christian	MWC	0.19	0.13	57.14	49.57	0.03	-0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.18	0.13	54.17	57.11	0.01	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.12	0.13	66.67	60.84	0.04	0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.18	0.13	42.86	41.08	-0.03	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.14	0.11	13.64	16.23	-0.10	-0.07
Arkansas	SEC	0.08	0.11	69.57	65.18	0.03	0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.08	0.11	66.67	69.71	0.03	0.04
Portland St.	BSky	0.00	0.11	42.86	45.93	-0.00	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.08	0.11	85.71	82.22	0.06	0.07
Tulsa	CUSA	0.14	0.11	60.87	59.05	0.03	0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.14	0.11	80.00	76.71	0.08	0.06
Western Kentucky	SB	0.08	0.11	34.78	34.46	-0.02	-0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.22	0.11	28.57	35.72	-0.09	-0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.21	0.11	56.52	53.94	0.03	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.08	0.10	50.00	45.20	0.00	-0.01
Missouri	B12	0.21	0.10	91.67	87.92	0.17	0.08
North Carolina	ACC	0.13	0.10	86.96	83.30	0.10	0.07
Bradley	MVC	0.13	0.10	24.00	24.86	-0.07	-0.05
Indiana St.	MVC	0.19	0.10	56.52	54.28	0.02	0.01
Samford	SC	0.07	0.10	33.33	35.20	-0.02	-0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.20	0.10	78.26	72.28	0.11	0.05
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.10	57.69	58.27	0.01	0.02
Hawaii	WAC	0.06	0.10	57.14	53.02	0.01	0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.06	0.10	80.95	76.42	0.04	0.05
Rice	CUSA	0.13	0.10	47.62	46.51	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.12	0.10	82.61	80.50	0.08	0.06
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.10	63.64	57.79	0.02	0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.18	0.10	84.00	82.62	0.12	0.06
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.18	0.10	62.50	61.43	0.04	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.19	0.10	87.50	85.41	0.14	0.07
Air Force	MWC	0.12	0.10	47.37	42.13	-0.01	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.10	47.83	42.67	-0.00	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.10	76.19	70.71	0.03	0.04
Denver	SB	0.12	0.10	70.83	72.24	0.05	0.04
Seattle	ind	0.18	0.10	22.22	32.99	-0.10	-0.03
Southern California	P12	0.12	0.10	25.00	25.08	-0.06	-0.05
Wisconsin	B10	0.12	0.09	75.00	74.01	0.06	0.05
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.14	0.07	40.91	44.29	-0.03	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	31.82	32.98	-0.03	-0.03
Montana	BSky	0.07	0.07	71.43	73.99	0.03	0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	45.00	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.14	0.07	30.00	31.40	-0.06	-0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.07	40.91	39.60	-0.01	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.07	47.62	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.00	0.07	38.10	40.84	-0.00	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.07	0.07	65.00	66.71	0.02	0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.00	0.07	34.78	35.53	-0.00	-0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	59.09	57.27	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.13	0.07	47.62	48.01	-0.01	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.07	0.07	61.90	58.61	0.02	0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.07	0.07	33.33	41.30	-0.02	-0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.13	0.07	50.00	56.75	0.00	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.13	0.07	47.83	47.88	-0.01	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.08	0.07	33.33	37.11	-0.03	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.14	0.07	33.33	33.82	-0.05	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.13	0.07	0.00	5.31	-0.13	-0.06
Washington St.	P12	0.13	0.07	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.07	0.07	38.10	37.80	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.14	0.07	69.57	65.37	0.05	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.14	0.07	59.09	59.78	0.03	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.12	0.07	5.26	7.29	-0.11	-0.06
Charlotte	A10	0.13	0.07	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.07	47.83	47.08	-0.00	-0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.00	0.07	76.00	72.48	0.00	0.03
Idaho	WAC	0.00	0.07	50.00	51.46	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.07	62.50	62.07	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.13	0.07	96.00	93.53	0.12	0.06
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.07	34.78	32.10	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.00	0.07	8.33	10.90	-0.00	-0.05
Kent St.	MAC	0.12	0.07	71.43	69.05	0.05	0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.12	0.07	83.33	84.76	0.08	0.05
Troy	SB	0.00	0.07	28.57	30.17	-0.00	-0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.12	0.06	70.83	66.50	0.05	0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.12	0.06	33.33	32.18	-0.04	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	36.36	40.96	-0.02	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	66.67	62.69	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.02	0.04	0.04
Oregon St.	P12	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.17	0.02	0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	85.71	78.11	0.04	0.04
South Alabama	SB	0.00	0.06	52.38	52.88	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.06	54.55	56.78	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.06	0.06	18.18	15.00	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	69.57	61.84	0.02	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.73	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.12	0.06	70.83	62.75	0.05	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	50.00	44.98	0.00	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.06	0.06	41.67	38.63	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.12	0.06	62.50	60.78	0.03	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.00	0.04	40.91	34.45	-0.00	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.00	0.04	31.82	32.81	-0.00	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.00	0.04	70.83	71.06	0.00	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.04	42.11	45.89	-0.01	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.04	35.00	40.74	-0.02	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.00	0.04	56.52	56.80	0.00	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.00	0.04	26.32	28.82	-0.00	-0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.00	0.04	82.61	81.41	0.00	0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.00	0.04	28.57	29.05	-0.00	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.07	0.04	18.18	19.91	-0.04	-0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.00	0.04	72.00	72.22	0.00	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.07	0.04	30.00	34.18	-0.03	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.07	0.04	34.78	35.19	-0.02	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.00	0.04	36.00	40.36	-0.00	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.00	0.04	65.22	62.67	0.00	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.00	0.04	73.91	75.47	0.00	0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.07	0.04	68.18	68.98	0.02	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.07	0.04	52.63	48.32	0.00	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.03	55.00	57.42	0.01	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.07	0.03	90.91	83.90	0.05	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.00	0.03	47.62	48.81	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.03	21.05	22.46	-0.03	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.03	43.48	43.89	-0.01	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.00	0.03	19.05	19.39	-0.00	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.03	63.64	56.68	0.02	0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.00	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.00	0.03	80.77	80.77	0.00	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.00	0.03	31.82	33.75	-0.00	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.07	0.03	20.83	23.73	-0.04	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.03	40.91	39.81	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.00	0.03	42.86	39.66	-0.00	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.04	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.03	34.78	34.75	-0.02	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.03	30.43	31.40	-0.02	-0.01
Butler	Horz	0.06	0.03	50.00	50.81	0.00	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.03	17.39	19.76	-0.04	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.03	28.57	34.11	-0.00	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.06	0.03	36.36	39.73	-0.02	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	23.81	33.67	-0.03	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.06	0.03	70.83	64.53	0.03	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.06	0.03	35.00	37.55	-0.02	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	54.55	58.39	0.00	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.03	60.00	59.09	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.06	0.03	77.27	77.70	0.03	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.06	0.03	95.83	92.00	0.06	0.03
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.06	0.03	55.56	58.02	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.06	0.03	69.57	66.59	0.02	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.00	0.03	66.67	65.98	0.00	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.06	0.03	27.27	23.78	-0.03	-0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.03	9.09	12.82	-0.05	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.03	47.83	45.51	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.03	69.57	66.33	0.02	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.03	77.27	73.50	0.03	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.03	31.82	34.86	-0.02	-0.01