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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Central Arkansas

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:339.0
Current RPI:339
Expected SOS:330
Current SOS:330
Current Record:7-21
Expected Record:7-21
Current Conf Record:6-12
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-10
Current OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC RPI:307
Expected OOC SOS:154



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-21339.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Arkansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Tulsa (58.0)AmerA98-81L0%0.0
11-19Massachusetts (171.0)A10A89-62L0%0.0
11-21Rutgers (294.0)B10A87-84L0%0.0
11-23UTSA (347.0)CUSAN98-84W100%0.0
11-25Howard (328.0)MEACN73-54L0%0.0
12-1Arkansas Little Rock (42.0)SBA79-73L0%0.0
12-3Oklahoma (6.0)B12A111-68L0%0.0
12-6Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCA100-47L0%0.0
12-16Arkansas Little Rock (42.0)SBH54-77L0%0.0
12-22Arkansas St. (285.0)SBA77-67L0%0.0
1-2Abilene Christian (321.0)SlndH61-62L0%0.0
1-5Texas A&M Corpus Chris (84.0)SlndA94-82L0%0.0
1-9Lamar (337.0)SlndH93-76W100%0.0
1-12Stephen F. Austin (61.0)SlndA85-64L0%0.0
1-19Houston Baptist (224.0)SlndH61-72L0%0.0
1-23Nicholls St. (313.0)SlndA83-94W100%0.0
1-25New Orleans (343.0)SlndA94-83L0%0.0
2-2Northwestern St. (344.0)SlndA91-75L0%0.0
2-6New Orleans (343.0)SlndH112-77W100%0.0
2-9Southeastern Louisiana (331.0)SlndH88-72W100%0.0
2-12Incarnate Word (163.0)SlndA71-69L0%0.0
2-15Northwestern St. (344.0)SlndH107-94W100%0.0
2-20Sam Houston St. (178.0)SlndA105-75L0%0.0
2-22McNeese St. (341.0)SlndA82-88W100%0.0
2-27Southeastern Louisiana (331.0)SlndA75-56L0%0.0
2-29Sam Houston St. (178.0)SlndH73-83L0%0.0
3-3Nicholls St. (313.0)SlndH64-68L0%0.0
3-5McNeese St. (341.0)SlndH77-85L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Arkansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Central Arkansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Central Arkansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Central ArkansasSlnd26.3226.3225.8325.83-12.72-12.72
Nicholls St.Slnd4.534.5324.1424.14-2.34-2.34
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd4.494.4931.0331.03-1.70-1.70
New OrleansSlnd4.464.4624.0024.00-2.32-2.32
McNeese St.Slnd4.464.4625.0025.00-2.23-2.23
Northwestern St.Slnd4.364.3618.1818.18-2.77-2.77
Sam Houston St.Slnd4.344.3448.1548.15-0.16-0.16
Arkansas Little RockSB3.663.6686.2186.212.652.65
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.722.7275.8675.861.411.41
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.662.6681.4881.481.681.68
Houston BaptistSlnd2.652.6542.8642.86-0.38-0.38
LamarSlnd2.592.5928.0028.00-1.14-1.14
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.582.5830.7730.77-0.99-0.99
Incarnate WordSlnd2.582.5854.1754.170.210.21
Arkansas St.SB1.901.9028.5728.57-0.81-0.81
OklahomaB121.891.8977.4277.421.041.04
MassachusettsA101.881.8841.9441.94-0.30-0.30
TulsaAmer1.841.8463.3363.330.490.49
HowardMEAC1.841.8431.0331.03-0.70-0.70
RutgersB101.821.8216.6716.67-1.21-1.21
UTSACUSA1.821.8213.7913.79-1.31-1.31
PittsburghACC1.791.7963.3363.330.480.48
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.370.3751.7251.720.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.310.3158.0658.060.050.05
Texas St.SB0.300.3044.8344.83-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.210.2129.0329.03-0.09-0.09
BaylorB120.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
TCUB120.180.1836.3636.36-0.05-0.05
NebraskaB100.180.1847.0647.06-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.180.1841.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.180.1883.3383.330.120.12
South AlabamaSB0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.180.1824.1424.14-0.09-0.09
UT ArlingtonSB0.180.1868.7568.750.070.07
Texas TechB120.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
TulaneAmer0.160.1635.2935.29-0.05-0.05
North TexasCUSA0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
MemphisAmer0.140.1455.8855.880.020.02
RiceCUSA0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
PurdueB100.120.1276.4776.470.070.07
DuquesneA100.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.120.1222.2222.22-0.07-0.07
HamptonMEAC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
TexasB120.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
HawaiiBW0.120.1283.3383.330.080.08
ClemsonACC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
East CarolinaAmer0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
HoustonAmer0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
San Diego St.MWC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
CreightonBE0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
MississippiSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
CaliforniaP120.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
LSUSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
NorthwesternB100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
WisconsinB100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
SyracuseACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
HarvardIvy0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
ArizonaP120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.070.0712.9012.90-0.05-0.05
St. John'sBE0.060.0622.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
DePaulBE0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
IllinoisB100.060.0644.1244.12-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Michigan St.B100.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
MinnesotaB100.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
Ohio St.B100.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
TempleAmer0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
KansasB120.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
Kansas St.B120.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
La SalleA100.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0679.4179.410.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
VCUA100.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
OregonP120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
ElonCAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Washington St.P120.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01