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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Central Arkansas

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:328.0
Current RPI:328
Expected SOS:278
Current SOS:278
Current Record:6-19
Expected Record:6-19
Current Conf Record:5-11
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-8
Current OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC RPI:339
Expected OOC SOS:252



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-19328.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Arkansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16SIU Edwardsville (320.0)OVCA100-93L0%0.0
11-20Louisiana Tech (62.0)CUSAH57-94L0%0.0
11-24Arkansas St. (180.0)SBA99-56L0%0.0
11-26Troy (285.0)SBH60-53W100%0.0
12-1Kansas St. (51.0)B12A87-54L0%0.0
12-15Texas Tech (121.0)B12A79-57L0%0.0
12-17North Texas (195.0)CUSAA64-55L0%0.0
12-21Charleston Southern (268.0)BSthH90-97L0%0.0
12-28Nebraska Omaha (219.0)SumH88-104L0%0.0
1-2Texas A&M Corpus Chris (249.0)SlndH66-81L0%0.0
1-4Houston Baptist (341.0)SlndH86-69W100%0.0
1-11Oral Roberts (191.0)SlndA93-80L0%0.0
1-23Northwestern St. (158.0)SlndH68-76L0%0.0
1-25Stephen F. Austin (52.0)SlndH49-66L0%0.0
1-30McNeese St. (272.0)SlndA75-76W100%0.0
2-1Nicholls St. (262.0)SlndA78-67L0%0.0
2-6Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndH85-71W100%0.0
2-8New Orleans (260.0)SlndH79-88L0%0.0
2-13Texas A&M Corpus Chris (249.0)SlndA84-73L0%0.0
2-15Houston Baptist (341.0)SlndA99-83L0%0.0
2-22Oral Roberts (191.0)SlndH50-63L0%0.0
2-27Sam Houston St. (112.0)SlndH80-71W100%0.0
3-1Lamar (344.0)SlndH76-69W100%0.0
3-6Northwestern St. (158.0)SlndA119-102L0%0.0
3-8Stephen F. Austin (52.0)SlndA85-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Arkansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Central Arkansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Central Arkansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Central ArkansasSlnd26.2526.2519.8219.82-15.84-15.84
Oral RobertsSlnd4.914.9140.7440.74-0.91-0.91
Stephen F. AustinSlnd4.874.8792.5992.594.154.15
Northwestern St.Slnd4.864.8644.0044.00-0.58-0.58
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd4.774.7750.0050.000.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd4.764.7612.0012.00-3.62-3.62
Sam Houston St.Slnd3.023.0271.4371.431.301.30
Nicholls St.Slnd3.003.0044.0044.00-0.36-0.36
McNeese St.Slnd2.922.9226.9226.92-1.35-1.35
LamarSlnd2.852.8511.1111.11-2.21-2.21
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.812.8132.0032.00-1.01-1.01
New OrleansSlnd2.732.7333.3333.33-0.91-0.91
North TexasCUSA2.182.1842.8642.86-0.31-0.31
Kansas St.B122.172.1761.2961.290.490.49
Louisiana TechCUSA2.152.1578.1278.121.211.21
Texas TechB122.142.1441.9441.94-0.34-0.34
TroySB2.142.1432.1432.14-0.76-0.76
Arkansas St.SB2.102.1055.1755.170.220.22
Charleston SouthernBSth2.002.0030.7730.77-0.77-0.77
Nebraska OmahaSum2.002.0046.1546.15-0.15-0.15
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.002.0028.5728.57-0.86-0.86
RiceCUSA0.310.3117.8617.86-0.20-0.20
BaylorB120.310.3166.6766.670.100.10
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.280.2864.5264.520.080.08
Texas St.SB0.270.2720.6920.69-0.16-0.16
TexasB120.270.2769.7069.700.110.11
OklahomaB120.260.2671.8871.880.110.11
Louisiana MonroeSB0.240.2434.6234.62-0.07-0.07
Iowa St.B120.230.2378.7978.790.130.13
LSUSEC0.230.2359.3859.380.040.04
South AlabamaSB0.210.2128.5728.57-0.09-0.09
UT ArlingtonSB0.210.2143.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.210.2174.1974.190.100.10
UTSACUSA0.210.2122.2222.22-0.11-0.11
Arkansas Little RockSB0.200.2043.3343.33-0.03-0.03
TulsaCUSA0.200.2063.6463.640.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.190.1963.6463.640.050.05
UTEPCUSA0.180.1867.7467.740.070.07
IPFWSum0.180.1867.7467.740.060.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.180.1825.8125.81-0.09-0.09
Southern MissCUSA0.170.1780.6580.650.100.10
MarshallCUSA0.170.1729.0329.03-0.07-0.07
MinnesotaB100.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.150.1525.9325.93-0.07-0.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
TulaneCUSA0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
KansasB120.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
TCUB120.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
West VirginiaB120.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
AuburnSEC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.110.1110.3410.34-0.09-0.09
MemphisAmer0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.110.1121.2121.21-0.06-0.06
High PointBSth0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
South DakotaSum0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
TowsonCAA0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
HoustonAmer0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Michigan St.B100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
ArmyPat0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
DenverSum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
DePaulBE0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
MichiganB100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0778.5778.570.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
LibertyBSth0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.070.0759.2659.260.010.01
SamfordSC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.070.07100.00100.000.070.07
WisconsinB100.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
MississippiSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IndianaB100.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0442.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.040.0466.6766.670.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.040.0463.3363.330.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.040.0446.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
IowaB100.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
NevadaMWC0.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.040.0481.8281.820.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0445.1645.16-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.040.0460.0060.000.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.040.0487.1087.100.030.03
SeattleWAC0.040.0439.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.040.0434.4834.48-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
VMIBSth0.040.0455.5655.560.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.040.0451.6151.610.000.00
ButlerBE0.040.0443.3343.33-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.040.0446.6746.67-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0446.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0436.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.040.0463.3363.330.010.01
Washington St.P120.040.0430.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.020.02
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01