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Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


Central Arkansas

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:326.1
Current RPI:316
Expected SOS:323
Current SOS:249
Current Record:4-15
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:3-6
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-10
Current OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC RPI:296
Expected OOC SOS:124



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-15248.30.06%
12-16269.00.46%
11-17285.42.23%
10-18301.38.64%
9-19315.418.98%
8-20326.726.95%
7-21335.324.43%
6-22341.113.48%
5-23344.84.26%
4-24347.20.50%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Arkansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Tulsa (67.3)AmerA98-81L0%0.0
11-19Massachusetts (196.3)A10A89-62L0%0.0
11-21Rutgers (281.2)B10A87-84L0%0.0
11-23UTSA (341.9)CUSAN98-84W100%0.0
11-25Howard (297.7)MEACN73-54L0%0.0
12-1Arkansas Little Rock (50.4)SBA79-73L0%0.0
12-3Oklahoma (3.5)B12A111-68L0%0.0
12-6Pittsburgh (46.2)ACCA100-47L0%0.0
12-16Arkansas Little Rock (50.4)SBH54-77L0%0.0
12-22Arkansas St. (240.5)SBA77-67L0%0.0
1-2Abilene Christian (318.1)SlndH61-62L0%0.0
1-5Texas A&M Corpus Chris (113.1)SlndA94-82L0%0.0
1-9Lamar (336.6)SlndH93-76W100%0.0
1-12Stephen F. Austin (97.2)SlndA85-64L0%0.0
1-19Houston Baptist (204.8)SlndH61-72L0%0.0
1-23Nicholls St. (323.8)SlndA83-94W100%0.0
1-25New Orleans (312.1)SlndA94-83L0%0.0
2-2Northwestern St. (331.9)SlndA91-75L0%0.0
2-6New Orleans (312.1)SlndH112-77W100%0.0
2-9Southeastern Louisiana (331.6)SlndH0-057%1.9
2-12Incarnate Word (189.3)SlndA0-017%-10.4
2-15Northwestern St. (331.9)SlndA0-035%-4.1
2-20Sam Houston St. (188.8)SlndH0-034%-4.5
2-22McNeese St. (328.3)SlndA0-036%-3.8
2-27Southeastern Louisiana (331.6)SlndA0-033%-4.7
2-29Sam Houston St. (188.8)SlndH0-034%-4.5
3-3Nicholls St. (323.8)SlndH0-070%5.9
3-5McNeese St. (328.3)SlndH0-060%2.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Arkansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Central Arkansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Central Arkansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Central ArkansasSlnd26.4926.3823.3828.85-14.10-11.16
New OrleansSlnd5.654.4425.0032.87-2.83-1.52
McNeese St.Slnd0.614.4417.6527.26-0.39-2.02
Nicholls St.Slnd3.124.4319.0521.53-1.93-2.52
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.414.4315.0024.92-0.29-2.22
Northwestern St.Slnd3.024.4012.5021.62-2.27-2.50
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.624.2845.0048.09-0.06-0.16
Arkansas Little RockSB5.383.6689.4785.914.252.63
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd3.182.6675.0071.261.591.13
Stephen F. AustinSlnd3.122.6370.5974.601.281.30
LamarSlnd3.252.6331.5830.43-1.20-1.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd3.042.6231.5832.21-1.12-0.93
Incarnate WordSlnd0.592.6152.9450.880.030.05
Houston BaptistSlnd3.182.5947.3747.84-0.17-0.11
Arkansas St.SB2.761.9140.0037.02-0.55-0.50
OklahomaB122.631.8986.3682.011.911.21
MassachusettsA102.841.8938.1037.26-0.68-0.48
TulsaAmer2.761.8563.6460.100.750.37
HowardMEAC2.751.8533.3336.67-0.92-0.49
RutgersB102.691.8218.1817.60-1.71-1.18
UTSACUSA2.691.8214.2914.11-1.92-1.30
PittsburghACC2.631.7975.0067.071.320.61
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.330.3257.8961.750.050.08
Texas St.SB0.310.3238.8938.50-0.07-0.07
Louisiana MonroeSB0.270.2642.8646.36-0.04-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.260.2226.0929.19-0.12-0.09
BaylorB120.270.2072.7366.460.120.07
SMUAmer0.120.1990.9186.160.100.14
Texas TechB120.180.1959.0953.170.030.01
TCUB120.190.1945.8339.31-0.02-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.190.1840.0039.00-0.04-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.190.1857.8956.080.030.02
South AlabamaSB0.380.1833.3334.19-0.13-0.06
TroySB0.380.1823.8126.67-0.20-0.09
UT ArlingtonSB0.190.1866.6770.550.060.08
TulaneAmer0.330.1633.3332.31-0.11-0.06
North TexasCUSA0.120.1633.3333.02-0.04-0.05
NebraskaB100.180.1554.1751.850.020.01
Florida St.ACC0.120.1569.5764.850.050.05
RiceCUSA0.190.1328.5729.68-0.08-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.1347.8348.88-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.210.1363.6456.440.060.02
PurdueB100.180.1379.1776.510.100.07
UTEPCUSA0.060.1352.1751.940.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.120.1359.0961.320.020.03
HawaiiBW0.180.1284.2181.700.120.08
Georgia TechACC0.060.1252.1751.630.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.190.1272.7372.060.080.05
TexasB120.180.1266.6762.220.060.03
CincinnatiAmer0.060.1270.8370.840.020.05
ClemsonACC0.240.1258.3358.410.040.02
East CarolinaAmer0.240.1243.4842.00-0.03-0.02
HoustonAmer0.170.1269.5766.530.070.04
MemphisAmer0.120.1260.8760.780.030.03
CreightonBE0.230.1262.5059.800.060.02
MississippiSEC0.140.1065.2259.020.040.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.1050.0051.190.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.1065.2262.840.000.03
IndianaB100.060.1079.1774.020.030.05
LSUSEC0.060.1065.2260.250.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.200.1045.8341.65-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.150.1066.6763.440.050.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.1031.8236.15-0.02-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.190.1045.4554.11-0.020.01
Virginia TechACC0.130.1054.1749.230.01-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0925.0025.09-0.03-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.0929.1733.74-0.05-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0978.2678.050.040.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0950.0054.210.000.01
HarvardIvy0.180.0935.0038.49-0.05-0.02
WisconsinB100.180.0960.8755.840.040.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.180.0910.0013.14-0.15-0.07
Oklahoma St.B120.110.0945.8342.26-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.120.0952.3845.690.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.080.0779.1778.350.050.04
ArkansasSEC0.080.0752.1755.940.000.01
AuburnSEC0.080.0740.9136.60-0.01-0.02
UCLAP120.000.0756.5253.240.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.150.0763.6459.220.040.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.150.0752.3847.040.01-0.00
BradleyMVC0.150.0712.5012.85-0.11-0.05
Arizona St.P120.140.0754.1751.640.010.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.079.0912.25-0.10-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0772.0070.510.000.03
UC IrvineBW0.000.0772.7371.620.000.03
St. John'sBE0.060.0725.0023.34-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.130.0782.6179.410.090.04
Austin PeayOVC0.130.0637.5040.54-0.03-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0614.2920.64-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0643.4850.66-0.010.00
MichiganB100.120.0669.5766.240.050.02
Cal PolyBW0.120.0630.0034.56-0.05-0.02
CornellIvy0.120.0642.1140.18-0.02-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0638.1037.70-0.01-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0624.0025.69-0.00-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0644.0045.27-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.060.0669.5765.360.020.02
DePaulBE0.130.0634.7834.54-0.04-0.02
FIUCUSA0.060.0640.9145.29-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0622.7327.19-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0645.4547.56-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.130.0654.5554.950.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0671.4368.720.030.02
LouisvilleACC0.060.0679.1776.080.040.03
New MexicoMWC0.060.0660.8763.000.010.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.0661.9065.300.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0631.5831.99-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.060.0666.6762.580.020.02
DavidsonA100.120.0660.0057.950.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.060.0643.4840.57-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0673.9172.490.030.03
FordhamA100.060.0655.0052.260.010.00
George WashingtonA100.120.0678.2674.430.070.03
IllinoisB100.060.0645.8344.12-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.110.0673.9170.050.050.02
KansasB120.060.0681.8277.600.040.03
Kansas St.B120.110.0660.8758.370.020.01
La SalleA100.060.0620.0020.45-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.060.0683.3383.030.040.04
MinnesotaB100.000.0626.0927.81-0.00-0.03
Ohio St.B100.060.0658.3354.120.010.00
Oral RobertsSum0.110.0639.1341.12-0.02-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.060.0656.5256.630.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0682.6178.890.040.03
St. BonaventureA100.060.0671.4368.950.030.02
TempleAmer0.060.0663.6459.840.020.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0682.6179.560.040.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0442.1145.70-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0361.9059.630.020.01
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0345.0046.12-0.01-0.00
LibertyBSth0.070.0334.7836.50-0.02-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0354.1755.070.010.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0314.2915.45-0.05-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0333.3335.47-0.02-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0352.3850.420.000.00
DrakeMVC0.070.0321.7423.66-0.04-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0354.1750.940.010.00
New HampshireAE0.070.0357.1453.980.010.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0365.2268.620.020.01
OaklandHorz0.070.0368.0067.980.020.01
PortlandWCC0.070.0340.0038.51-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.070.0340.0042.12-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0377.2776.870.040.02
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0366.6765.220.020.01
ElonCAA0.060.0352.1750.420.000.00
FurmanSC0.060.0354.1754.070.010.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0319.0525.89-0.04-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0329.1733.14-0.02-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0325.0033.17-0.03-0.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0350.0051.290.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0352.1754.150.000.00
UMBCAE0.060.0324.0026.33-0.03-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.060.0371.4369.860.030.01
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0330.4326.54-0.02-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0334.7840.93-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.060.0347.6245.85-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.0375.0071.700.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0352.3854.010.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.060.0363.6459.460.020.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0343.4842.62-0.01-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.060.0350.0051.180.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0381.8276.750.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0371.4369.420.030.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0334.7830.38-0.02-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0350.0052.350.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0382.6178.660.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0363.6462.150.020.01
Notre DameACC0.060.0370.8367.730.030.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0356.5262.790.000.01
OregonP120.060.0382.6179.220.040.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0317.3920.66-0.04-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0315.0015.35-0.04-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0347.8350.14-0.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0333.3334.94-0.02-0.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0382.6178.070.040.02
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0328.5731.26-0.03-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0345.4546.27-0.01-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0354.1755.570.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0313.0413.55-0.04-0.02
DaytonA100.060.0386.3682.380.040.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0350.0051.900.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0347.6252.07-0.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0334.7834.14-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0352.1751.960.000.00
IonaMAAC0.060.0360.8760.760.010.01
IowaB100.060.0382.6180.590.040.02
MarylandB100.060.0387.5083.700.040.02
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0339.1337.73-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0379.1780.720.030.02
OhioMAC0.060.0361.9059.450.010.01
Oregon St.P120.060.0361.9056.420.010.00
Penn St.B100.000.0350.0046.710.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.060.0375.0070.940.030.01
RichmondA100.060.0354.5554.490.010.00
Saint LouisA100.060.0336.3633.47-0.02-0.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0373.9169.840.030.01
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0386.3679.140.040.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0320.0019.67-0.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.060.0334.7835.64-0.02-0.01
VCUA100.000.0373.9173.910.000.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0386.9686.360.040.02
Washington St.P120.060.0336.3631.98-0.02-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0372.7376.360.030.02