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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Central Arkansas

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:349.0
Current RPI:349
Expected SOS:330
Current SOS:330
Current Record:2-27
Expected Record:2-27
Current Conf Record:2-16
Expected Conf Record:2-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-16
Current OOC Record:0-11
Expected OOC Record:0-11
Expected OOC RPI:351
Expected OOC SOS:313



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
2-27349.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Arkansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Creighton (151.0)BEA104-77L0%0.0
11-16Nebraska Omaha (300.0)SumA100-75L0%0.0
11-18Nebraska (158.0)B10A82-56L0%0.0
11-22Southeast Missouri St. (289.0)OVCH68-74L0%0.0
11-25Charleston Southern (164.0)BSthA80-67L0%0.0
11-29Arkansas Little Rock (276.0)SBA85-71L0%0.0
12-1Arkansas St. (277.0)SBH49-67L0%0.0
12-6Troy (313.0)SBA85-73L0%0.0
12-17New Mexico (172.0)MWCA76-55L0%0.0
12-21Coastal Carolina (124.0)BSthH55-72L0%0.0
12-29Morehead St. (201.0)OVCH60-95L0%0.0
1-4Abilene Christian (324.0)SlndA87-70L0%0.0
1-6Texas A&M Corpus Chris (209.0)SlndH70-77L0%0.0
1-10Lamar (230.0)SlndA84-65L0%0.0
1-13Stephen F. Austin (33.0)SlndH58-109L0%0.0
1-19Houston Baptist (285.0)SlndA84-61L0%0.0
1-24Nicholls St. (321.0)SlndH61-71L0%0.0
1-26New Orleans (326.0)SlndA87-67L0%0.0
2-3Northwestern St. (161.0)SlndH108-110L0%0.0
2-7New Orleans (326.0)SlndH70-67W100%0.0
2-10Southeastern Louisiana (329.0)SlndA83-58L0%0.0
2-13Incarnate Word (160.0)SlndH67-77L0%0.0
2-16Northwestern St. (161.0)SlndA86-70L0%0.0
2-21Sam Houston St. (82.0)SlndH42-70L0%0.0
2-24McNeese St. (279.0)SlndH60-77L0%0.0
2-28Southeastern Louisiana (329.0)SlndH74-72W100%0.0
3-2Sam Houston St. (82.0)SlndA76-49L0%0.0
3-5Nicholls St. (321.0)SlndA77-70L0%0.0
3-8McNeese St. (279.0)SlndA70-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Arkansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Central Arkansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Central Arkansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Central ArkansasSlnd26.2726.274.584.58-23.86-23.86
McNeese St.Slnd4.364.3636.0036.00-1.22-1.22
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd4.354.3524.1424.14-2.25-2.25
Nicholls St.Slnd4.334.3320.8320.83-2.53-2.53
Northwestern St.Slnd4.334.3352.0052.000.170.17
New OrleansSlnd4.324.3229.1729.17-1.80-1.80
Sam Houston St.Slnd4.174.1770.3770.371.701.70
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.652.6555.1755.170.270.27
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.642.6486.2186.211.911.91
LamarSlnd2.552.5540.0040.00-0.51-0.51
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.512.5122.2222.22-1.39-1.39
Incarnate WordSlnd2.512.5156.5256.520.330.33
Houston BaptistSlnd2.472.4730.4330.43-0.97-0.97
TroySB1.911.9126.9226.92-0.88-0.88
Arkansas St.SB1.881.8833.3333.33-0.63-0.63
Arkansas Little RockSB1.851.8537.9337.93-0.45-0.45
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.831.8337.0437.04-0.48-0.48
NebraskaB101.821.8240.0040.00-0.36-0.36
Coastal CarolinaBSth1.791.7967.8667.860.640.64
Morehead St.OVC1.791.7945.1645.16-0.17-0.17
Charleston SouthernBSth1.781.7857.6957.690.270.27
CreightonBE1.751.7540.6240.62-0.33-0.33
Nebraska OmahaSum1.751.7537.0437.04-0.45-0.45
New MexicoMWC1.721.7246.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.310.3156.6756.670.040.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.300.3058.6258.620.050.05
Texas St.SB0.240.2439.2939.29-0.05-0.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.220.2264.5264.520.060.06
South AlabamaSB0.210.2132.2632.26-0.08-0.08
Tennessee TechOVC0.200.2035.7135.71-0.06-0.06
DenverSum0.190.1940.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.180.1841.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.180.1867.8667.860.070.07
Georgia St.SB0.180.1871.8871.880.080.08
Tennessee MartinOVC0.170.1757.1457.140.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.160.1675.0075.000.080.08
LongwoodBSth0.160.1628.1228.12-0.07-0.07
Gardner WebbBSth0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
MississippiSEC0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
PresbyterianBSth0.150.1521.4321.43-0.09-0.09
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Austin PeayOVC0.150.1521.4321.43-0.09-0.09
South DakotaSum0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
OklahomaB120.150.1568.7568.750.050.05
UNLVMWC0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
TCUB120.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
IndianaB100.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
CampbellBSth0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
High PointBSth0.120.1267.8667.860.040.04
LibertyBSth0.120.1214.2914.29-0.09-0.09
LSUSEC0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
RadfordBSth0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
WisconsinB100.120.1291.1891.180.100.10
TulsaAmer0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
North TexasCUSA0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1223.0823.08-0.06-0.06
Murray St.OVC0.120.1283.3383.330.080.08
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
San DiegoWCC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
UMKCWAC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
MichiganB100.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
UTEPCUSA0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
WoffordSC0.090.0981.2581.250.060.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0938.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0981.2581.250.050.05
Boise St.MWC0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
BelmontOVC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0810.3410.34-0.07-0.07
MarquetteBE0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
DePaulBE0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0671.4371.430.030.03
Texas TechB120.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.060.0693.9493.940.050.05
IllinoisB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
IowaB100.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
MarylandB100.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
MinnesotaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Penn St.B100.060.0652.9452.940.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
PrincetonIvy0.040.0451.7251.720.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
SMUAmer0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
BYUWCC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
USCP120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
AmericanPat0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01