live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Central Arkansas

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:313.0
Current RPI:313
Expected SOS:232
Current SOS:232
Current Record:8-24
Expected Record:8-24
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-11
Current OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC RPI:302
Expected OOC SOS:108



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-24313.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Arkansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Wisconsin (35.0)B10A79-47L0%0.0
11-14Oklahoma St. (39.0)B12A102-90L0%0.0
11-19Chattanooga (139.0)SCN64-75L0%0.0
11-20Army (266.0)PatN81-76W100%0.0
11-26Western Michigan (173.0)MACA80-63L0%0.0
11-29Little Rock (243.0)SBH87-89L0%0.0
12-1Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCA87-63L0%0.0
12-3Butler (15.0)BEA82-58L0%0.0
12-10Little Rock (243.0)SBA70-59L0%0.0
12-13Michigan (25.0)B10A97-53L0%0.0
12-16Arkansas St. (119.0)SBH77-89L0%0.0
12-19Morehead St. (200.0)OVCA111-85L0%0.0
12-22Arizona St. (125.0)P12A98-62L0%0.0
12-31Sam Houston St. (194.0)SlndH67-65W100%0.0
1-2Lamar (232.0)SlndH75-78L0%0.0
1-5Abilene Christian (288.0)SlndA76-81W100%0.0
1-12Houston Baptist (175.0)SlndA78-89W100%0.0
1-14Texas A&M Corpus Chris (158.0)SlndA88-81L0%0.0
1-18McNeese St. (315.0)SlndA82-72L0%0.0
1-21New Orleans (154.0)SlndH63-81L0%0.0
1-25Stephen F. Austin (202.0)SlndA78-76L0%0.0
1-28Incarnate Word (303.0)SlndH80-81L0%0.0
2-2Northwestern St. (306.0)SlndH107-97W100%0.0
2-4Southeastern Louisiana (248.0)SlndH68-66W100%0.0
2-9Abilene Christian (288.0)SlndH84-73W100%0.0
2-11Nicholls St. (252.0)SlndH106-83W100%0.0
2-16Nicholls St. (252.0)SlndA96-89L0%0.0
2-18New Orleans (154.0)SlndA84-61L0%0.0
2-22Southeastern Louisiana (248.0)SlndA87-70L0%0.0
2-25Stephen F. Austin (202.0)SlndH85-90L0%0.0
3-4Northwestern St. (306.0)SlndA97-83L0%0.0
3-8Sam Houston St. (194.0)SlndN77-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Arkansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Central Arkansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Central Arkansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Central ArkansasSlnd26.3226.3225.3725.37-12.96-12.96
New OrleansSlnd3.973.9757.6957.690.610.61
Sam Houston St.Slnd3.943.9457.1457.140.560.56
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd3.913.9146.4346.43-0.28-0.28
Stephen F. AustinSlnd3.903.9048.1548.15-0.14-0.14
Nicholls St.Slnd3.843.8436.0036.00-1.07-1.07
Northwestern St.Slnd3.833.8334.7834.78-1.16-1.16
Abilene ChristianSlnd3.823.8239.1339.13-0.83-0.83
Little RockSB3.183.1839.2939.29-0.68-0.68
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.452.4559.2659.260.450.45
LamarSlnd2.442.4450.0050.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd2.362.3629.1729.17-0.98-0.98
Houston BaptistSlnd2.352.3552.0052.000.090.09
McNeese St.Slnd2.332.3316.0016.00-1.58-1.58
Arkansas St.SB1.721.7260.0060.000.340.34
Oklahoma St.B121.651.6560.0060.000.330.33
MichiganB101.631.6367.6567.650.580.58
WisconsinB101.631.6372.7372.730.740.74
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.591.5940.0040.00-0.32-0.32
ArmyPat1.591.5940.0040.00-0.32-0.32
ChattanoogaSC1.591.5957.1457.140.230.23
Morehead St.OVC1.591.5940.7440.74-0.29-0.29
Arizona St.P121.561.5643.7543.75-0.20-0.20
ButlerBE1.561.5673.3373.330.730.73
Western MichiganMAC1.561.5646.6746.67-0.10-0.10
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.350.3561.2961.290.080.08
Louisiana MonroeSB0.320.3222.5822.58-0.18-0.18
OklahomaB120.200.2035.4835.48-0.06-0.06
IndianaB100.190.1954.5554.550.020.02
TulsaAmer0.190.1946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.180.1845.1645.16-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.180.1867.6567.650.060.06
RiceCUSA0.180.1864.5264.520.050.05
Texas TechB120.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
TulaneAmer0.160.1619.3519.35-0.10-0.10
Appalachian St.SB0.150.1525.0025.00-0.08-0.08
South AlabamaSB0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.150.1558.8258.820.030.03
PurdueB100.150.1578.1278.120.080.08
UTEPCUSA0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
MarquetteBE0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
IllinoisB100.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
SamfordSC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Murray St.OVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1153.5753.570.010.01
IdahoBSky0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
SouthernSWAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
USCP120.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
Washington St.P120.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
DePaulBE0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
BaylorB120.100.1077.4277.420.060.06
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
ToledoMAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
BucknellPat0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
CaliforniaP120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
CreightonBE0.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
UCLAP120.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
New MexicoMWC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
BelmontOVC0.080.0877.7877.780.050.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0844.4444.44-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
The CitadelSC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
FurmanSC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
AmericanPat0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Iowa St.B120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
LehighPat0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
TCUB120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
VillanovaBE0.080.0891.1891.180.060.06
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
OregonP120.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
WashingtonP120.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Ohio St.B100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
RutgersB100.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
NebraskaB100.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0637.9337.93-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
LipscombASun0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
MercerSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
VMISC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
LafayettePat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
ColoradoP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
DavidsonA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
HowardMEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01