Air Force

Conference:	MWC
Expected RPI:	80.0
Current RPI:	80
Expected SOS:	56
Current SOS:	56
Current Record:	15-13
Expected Record:	15-13
Current Conf Record:	8-9
Expected Conf Record:	8-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-0
Current OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC RPI:	150
Expected OOC SOS:	255

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-13	80.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Air Force.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Army (205.0)	Pat	N	65-76	W	100%
11-11	The Citadel (330.0)	SC	A	70-77	W	100%
11-21	Montana St. (317.0)	BSky	H	86-72	W	100%
11-25	Colorado (38.0)	P12	A	89-74	L	0%
11-28	Jackson St. (309.0)	SWAC	H	76-47	W	100%
12-2	Wichita St. (37.0)	MVC	H	69-72	L	0%
12-8	Arkansas Pine Bluff (202.0)	SWAC	H	65-49	W	100%
12-22	UC Riverside (338.0)	BW	A	53-61	W	100%
12-29	Florida (7.0)	SEC	N	78-61	L	0%
1-2	Richmond (92.0)	A10	A	91-68	L	0%
1-9	Nevada (171.0)	MWC	H	78-65	W	100%
1-12	Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)	MWC	A	76-71	L	0%
1-16	Colorado St. (18.0)	MWC	A	79-40	L	0%
1-19	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	H	91-80	W	100%
1-23	New Orleans (346.0)	ind	H	90-48	W	100%
1-26	Wyoming (75.0)	MWC	A	48-57	W	100%
1-30	Fresno St. (135.0)	MWC	H	62-50	W	100%
2-2	San Diego St. (30.0)	MWC	H	70-67	W	100%
2-6	New Mexico (2.0)	MWC	A	81-58	L	0%
2-9	Nevada (171.0)	MWC	A	74-69	L	0%
2-13	Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)	MWC	H	71-56	W	100%
2-16	Colorado St. (18.0)	MWC	H	86-89	L	0%
2-20	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	A	77-65	L	0%
2-26	Wyoming (75.0)	MWC	H	72-66	W	100%
3-2	Fresno St. (135.0)	MWC	A	56-41	L	0%
3-6	San Diego St. (30.0)	MWC	A	58-51	L	0%
3-9	New Mexico (2.0)	MWC	H	89-88	W	100%
3-13	Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)	MWC	A	72-56	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Air Force's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Air Force's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Air Force.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Air Force	MWC	26.41	26.41	54.63	54.63	2.45	2.45
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	6.30	6.30	73.33	73.33	2.94	2.94
New Mexico	MWC	4.66	4.66	87.50	87.50	3.49	3.49
Colorado St.	MWC	4.62	4.62	72.41	72.41	2.07	2.07
San Diego St.	MWC	4.59	4.59	67.86	67.86	1.64	1.64
Wyoming	MWC	4.58	4.58	60.71	60.71	0.98	0.98
Fresno St.	MWC	4.55	4.55	30.77	30.77	-1.75	-1.75
Boise St.	MWC	4.54	4.54	66.67	66.67	1.51	1.51
Nevada	MWC	4.50	4.50	35.71	35.71	-1.29	-1.29
Colorado	P12	1.97	1.97	64.52	64.52	0.57	0.57
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	1.91	1.91	55.17	55.17	0.20	0.20
UC Riverside	BW	1.85	1.85	14.81	14.81	-1.30	-1.30
New Orleans	ind	1.85	1.85	19.05	19.05	-1.14	-1.14
Jackson St.	SWAC	1.85	1.85	39.29	39.29	-0.40	-0.40
Army	Pat	1.79	1.79	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Florida	SEC	1.79	1.79	78.12	78.12	1.00	1.00
Montana St.	BSky	1.79	1.79	40.74	40.74	-0.33	-0.33
Richmond	A10	1.79	1.79	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
The Citadel	SC	1.79	1.79	22.22	22.22	-0.99	-0.99
Wichita St.	MVC	1.79	1.79	75.76	75.76	0.92	0.92
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.32	0.32	38.46	38.46	-0.07	-0.07
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.30	0.30	31.03	31.03	-0.12	-0.12
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.27	0.27	37.93	37.93	-0.07	-0.07
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.27	0.27	54.84	54.84	0.03	0.03
UC Irvine	BW	0.27	0.27	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.23	0.23	76.47	76.47	0.12	0.12
Portland	WCC	0.22	0.22	30.00	30.00	-0.09	-0.09
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.20	0.20	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Long Beach St.	BW	0.19	0.19	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.19	0.19	55.17	55.17	0.02	0.02
Pacific	BW	0.19	0.19	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
Southern	SWAC	0.18	0.18	68.97	68.97	0.07	0.07
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.18	0.18	29.03	29.03	-0.08	-0.08
Washington	P12	0.18	0.18	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.17	0.17	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.17	0.17	34.38	34.38	-0.05	-0.05
Southern California	P12	0.17	0.17	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.17	0.17	78.12	78.12	0.10	0.10
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.17	0.17	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.16	0.16	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.15	0.15	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.15	0.15	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
UCLA	P12	0.15	0.15	73.53	73.53	0.07	0.07
Davidson	SC	0.14	0.14	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.14	0.14	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.14	0.14	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.14	0.14	79.41	79.41	0.08	0.08
Illinois St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
California	P12	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.12	0.12	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Utah	BSky	0.12	0.12	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
UC Davis	BW	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.12	0.12	79.31	79.31	0.07	0.07
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.12	0.12	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	28.12	28.12	-0.05	-0.05
Grambling	SWAC	0.12	0.12	0.00	0.00	-0.12	-0.12
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	17.86	17.86	-0.08	-0.08
Wofford	SC	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.12	0.12	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.12	0.12	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Utah	P12	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	WAC	0.12	0.12	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
Yale	Ivy	0.12	0.12	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.12	0.12	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Drake	MVC	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.11	0.11	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Portland St.	BSky	0.10	0.10	23.08	23.08	-0.05	-0.05
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.09	0.09	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
South Dakota	Sum	0.09	0.09	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.09	0.09	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Western Carolina	SC	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
American	Pat	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Bucknell	Pat	0.09	0.09	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.09	0.09	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Butler	A10	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
North Dakota	BSky	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.06	0.06	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Stanford	P12	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.04	0.04	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.04	0.04	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.04	0.04	13.79	13.79	-0.03	-0.03
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.03	-0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.03	-0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01