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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Air Force

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:197.4
Current RPI:204
Expected SOS:106
Current SOS:194
Current Record:3-3
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:227
Expected OOC SOS:201



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-855.00.01%
20-972.00.01%
19-1078.20.21%
18-1194.10.73%
17-12109.82.15%
16-13128.64.75%
15-14146.68.71%
14-15166.013.09%
13-16186.017.13%
12-17205.118.56%
11-18224.615.55%
10-19242.19.56%
9-20260.35.74%
8-21275.02.68%
7-22290.80.85%
6-23298.40.23%
5-24309.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Air Force.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Jacksonville (208.9)ASunH86-68W100%0.0
11-20Florida A&M (346.2)MEACH87-62W100%0.0
11-22Stetson (322.2)ASunH85-72W100%0.0
11-25Akron (74.5)MACN75-84L0%0.0
11-26East Carolina (187.7)AmerN63-70L0%0.0
11-30New Mexico St. (126.1)WACA78-70L0%0.0
12-3Missouri St. (124.0)MVCH0-037%-4.0
12-7Army (208.3)PatA0-049%-0.3
12-10Denver (270.4)SumH0-073%7.5
12-19Colorado (84.8)P12H0-028%-6.9
12-22UC Davis (236.9)BWH0-072%6.9
12-28Wyoming (182.2)MWCA0-038%-3.7
12-31Utah St. (105.4)MWCH0-045%-1.6
1-7Colorado St. (89.8)MWCA0-024%-8.7
1-11Fresno St. (202.1)MWCH0-063%3.8
1-14San Jose St. (205.1)MWCH0-066%5.0
1-18Nevada (46.6)MWCA0-015%-12.3
1-21UNLV (163.6)MWCA0-032%-5.7
1-24San Diego St. (47.5)MWCH0-026%-7.8
2-1Fresno St. (202.1)MWCA0-042%-2.3
2-4Wyoming (182.2)MWCH0-058%2.5
2-8New Mexico (84.5)MWCH0-041%-2.6
2-11Boise St. (106.2)MWCA0-022%-9.1
2-15Nevada (46.6)MWCH0-031%-6.1
2-18San Jose St. (205.1)MWCA0-046%-1.1
2-22UNLV (163.6)MWCH0-052%0.5
2-25Utah St. (105.4)MWCA0-026%-7.7
3-1San Diego St. (47.5)MWCA0-012%-14.0
3-4Boise St. (106.2)MWCH0-040%-3.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Air Force's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Air Force's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Air Force.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Air ForceMWC28.7026.3640.9138.02-5.22-6.32
San Jose St.MWC0.004.3440.0036.94-0.00-1.13
NevadaMWC0.004.3375.0070.020.001.73
WyomingMWC0.004.3260.0048.320.00-0.14
UNLVMWC0.004.3071.4349.000.00-0.09
Boise St.MWC0.004.2950.0058.260.000.71
Fresno St.MWC0.004.2960.0039.000.00-0.94
Utah St.MWC0.004.2850.0052.710.000.23
San Diego St.MWC0.004.2875.0074.510.002.10
Colorado St.MWC0.602.7583.3360.960.400.60
New MexicoMWC0.602.7571.4358.670.260.48
DenverSum0.601.8833.3341.62-0.20-0.32
StetsonASun9.551.8533.3329.31-3.18-0.76
JacksonvilleASun8.331.8566.6761.772.780.43
Florida A&MMEAC9.451.810.0024.36-9.45-0.93
New Mexico St.WAC8.331.8166.6766.882.780.61
East CarolinaAmer9.621.7971.4345.764.12-0.15
ColoradoP120.001.7571.4359.430.000.33
AkronMAC8.331.7280.0068.765.000.65
ArmyPat0.001.7233.3345.40-0.00-0.16
Missouri St.MVC0.001.7275.0065.030.000.52
UC DavisBW0.001.7257.1449.120.00-0.03
OregonP120.000.2671.4366.730.000.09
UC IrvineBW0.000.2450.0054.690.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.2183.3363.610.000.06
MontanaBSky0.000.1914.2947.44-0.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.1942.8650.32-0.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1860.0058.950.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.1857.1436.050.00-0.05
PacificWCC0.000.1850.0049.010.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.1728.5723.76-0.00-0.09
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.600.1616.6731.91-0.40-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.690.1628.5730.29-0.30-0.06
PortlandWCC0.000.1560.0057.170.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.150.0021.30-0.00-0.09
Idaho St.BSky0.000.1514.2929.81-0.00-0.06
South AlabamaSB0.600.1583.3361.150.400.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1516.6743.29-0.00-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1433.3345.60-0.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.140.0033.43-0.00-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1350.0056.260.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1350.0059.670.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1350.0071.330.000.05
LipscombASun0.000.1314.2933.07-0.00-0.04
North FloridaASun0.000.1314.2931.71-0.00-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.000.1333.3338.20-0.00-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1233.3343.64-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1266.6754.420.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.1220.0042.63-0.00-0.02
Washington St.P120.000.1250.0036.820.00-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.120.0039.35-0.00-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.1233.3335.92-0.00-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1233.3346.81-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1240.0057.49-0.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1214.2937.52-0.00-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.1220.0054.94-0.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.12100.0089.040.000.09
Southern UtahBSky0.000.120.0023.26-0.00-0.06
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1233.3340.39-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1250.0061.810.000.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1216.6736.45-0.00-0.03
BradleyMVC0.000.1250.0029.280.00-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.000.1240.0050.91-0.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1216.6730.02-0.00-0.05
SMUAmer0.000.1257.1469.300.000.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1250.0046.670.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.120.0033.44-0.00-0.04
WashingtonP120.000.1157.1452.630.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.1160.0070.140.000.04
San DiegoWCC0.600.1028.5727.50-0.26-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.100.0024.19-0.00-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.000.090.0017.30-0.00-0.06
GonzagaWCC0.000.09100.0091.060.000.08
IdahoBSky0.000.0940.0050.88-0.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0937.5036.24-0.00-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.0925.0043.26-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.120.090.0024.32-1.12-0.05
DePaulBE0.000.0980.0035.960.00-0.03
BYUWCC0.000.0971.4368.660.000.03
Fort WayneSum0.000.0966.6770.930.000.04
AmericanPat0.690.0916.6735.65-0.46-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.090.0019.30-0.00-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0971.4386.030.000.06
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0950.0066.170.000.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.090.0021.30-0.00-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.690.0966.6732.240.23-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0962.5056.500.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0933.3327.13-0.00-0.04
StanfordP120.000.0975.0059.100.000.02
UCFAmer0.600.0983.3374.620.400.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0914.2928.15-0.00-0.04
OaklandHorz0.000.0983.3378.430.000.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0614.2934.56-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0616.6736.35-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0038.26-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6737.09-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.600.0657.1455.810.090.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.77-0.00-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0633.3323.33-0.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0671.4356.050.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0625.0024.28-0.00-0.03
FIUCUSA1.190.0616.6733.69-0.79-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0018.22-0.00-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB1.390.0650.0045.410.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.23-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0650.0056.430.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz1.290.0642.8637.60-0.18-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0628.5730.63-0.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0660.0043.970.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0671.4363.090.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0625.0030.93-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0616.6732.62-0.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.0671.4374.450.000.03
Texas TechB120.000.0685.7163.780.000.02
TroySB0.000.0633.3332.23-0.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0628.5728.46-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth1.290.0633.3336.31-0.43-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.520.060.0034.18-0.52-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0666.6775.370.000.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0650.0053.530.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.0675.0067.660.000.02
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0041.31-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0055.850.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.940.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0642.8647.69-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.000.0628.5747.72-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0650.0051.820.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.0633.3331.87-0.00-0.02
LehighPat0.000.0633.3367.01-0.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0633.3340.49-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0650.0033.010.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0671.4343.020.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0628.5743.62-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0633.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6740.71-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0680.0068.320.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0657.1447.220.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0650.0038.430.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0022.69-0.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6751.460.000.00
USCP120.000.06100.0075.380.000.03
MercerSC1.220.0650.0053.050.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.0685.7170.990.000.02
UtahP120.000.0675.0061.040.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3338.76-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0687.5078.680.000.03
HoustonAmer0.000.0683.3376.370.000.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.060.0037.92-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0685.7176.170.000.03
TCUB120.000.06100.0059.480.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0671.4363.570.000.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0650.0054.490.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0614.2926.81-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0039.200.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0642.8634.17-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0383.3368.880.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8646.78-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.000.0342.8635.68-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.600.0333.3333.15-0.20-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.600.0342.8637.25-0.09-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.35-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0325.0056.92-0.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.0375.0073.840.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6756.020.000.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0033.54-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0342.8644.33-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0357.1440.590.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.600.0340.0027.05-0.12-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0013.30-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.39-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0385.7168.390.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0350.0052.330.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.0342.8640.94-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0314.2929.15-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6756.360.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0342.8642.47-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.650.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0383.3362.080.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0320.0034.22-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0357.1447.320.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0385.7155.890.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0383.3359.600.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0371.4371.570.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6770.740.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0316.6729.36-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0383.3370.360.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.100.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0342.8650.36-0.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7174.430.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0325.0053.29-0.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.51-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0320.0032.60-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0075.010.000.01
TexasB120.000.0350.0036.240.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0083.550.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.920.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.030.0033.58-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0074.800.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.520.0366.6751.090.170.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0385.7180.960.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.520.0328.5734.18-0.22-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0385.7159.740.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.170.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0082.550.000.02