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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Air Force

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:226.0
Current RPI:226
Expected SOS:157
Current SOS:157
Current Record:12-18
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Record:5-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-2
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:116
Expected OOC SOS:201



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-18226.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Air Force.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCA77-75L0%0.0
11-16Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCH80-70W100%0.0
11-19Mississippi Valley St. (330.0)SWACH65-64W100%0.0
11-22Robert Morris (291.0)NECH64-52W100%0.0
11-25Colorado (35.0)P12A81-70L0%0.0
11-28New Mexico St. (111.0)WACH66-64W100%0.0
12-2The Citadel (322.0)SCH97-93W100%0.0
12-5Denver (188.0)SumA59-61W100%0.0
12-8Ohio St. (74.0)B10A74-50L0%0.0
12-12Army (214.0)PatH80-90L0%0.0
12-19UC Davis (281.0)BWA60-67W100%0.0
1-2San Jose St. (301.0)MWCH64-57W100%0.0
1-6Wyoming (187.0)MWCA64-52L0%0.0
1-9Nevada (118.0)MWCH63-86L0%0.0
1-12Utah St. (151.0)MWCA79-60L0%0.0
1-16UNLV (147.0)MWCA100-64L0%0.0
1-20Colorado St. (181.0)MWCH79-83L0%0.0
1-23Fresno St. (66.0)MWCH55-56L0%0.0
1-27New Mexico (141.0)MWCA84-55L0%0.0
1-30San Jose St. (301.0)MWCA75-54L0%0.0
2-2Wyoming (187.0)MWCH70-62W100%0.0
2-6Boise St. (101.0)MWCH61-53W100%0.0
2-10Nevada (118.0)MWCA72-52L0%0.0
2-13San Diego St. (41.0)MWCA70-61L0%0.0
2-16UNLV (147.0)MWCH79-74W100%0.0
2-20New Mexico (141.0)MWCH76-72W100%0.0
2-24Fresno St. (66.0)MWCA64-63L0%0.0
3-1Utah St. (151.0)MWCH65-78L0%0.0
3-5Colorado St. (181.0)MWCA87-73L0%0.0
3-9UNLV (147.0)MWCA108-102L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Air Force's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Air Force's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Air Force.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Air ForceMWC26.3626.3637.2937.29-6.70-6.70
UNLVMWC5.815.8150.0050.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC4.354.3570.0070.001.741.74
Colorado St.MWC4.334.3346.6746.67-0.29-0.29
New MexicoMWC4.274.2753.3353.330.280.28
WyomingMWC4.264.2639.2939.29-0.91-0.91
NevadaMWC4.254.2553.5753.570.300.30
Utah St.MWC4.204.2044.4444.44-0.47-0.47
San Jose St.MWC4.174.1719.2319.23-2.56-2.56
San Diego St.MWC2.762.7670.9770.971.161.16
Boise St.MWC2.682.6862.0762.070.650.65
New Mexico St.WAC1.911.9170.0070.000.760.76
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.751.7523.5323.53-0.93-0.93
Robert MorrisNEC1.751.7532.2632.26-0.62-0.62
Tennessee TechOVC1.741.7462.9662.960.450.45
DenverSum1.721.7253.3353.330.110.11
ColoradoP121.721.7264.5264.520.500.50
UC DavisBW1.691.6933.3333.33-0.56-0.56
ArmyPat1.671.6756.6756.670.220.22
Ohio St.B101.671.6759.3859.380.310.31
Southern IllinoisMVC1.671.6767.7467.740.590.59
The CitadelSC1.671.6725.0025.00-0.83-0.83
Montana St.BSky0.290.2943.3343.33-0.04-0.04
ArizonaP120.240.2475.7675.760.120.12
Wichita St.MVC0.220.2274.1974.190.100.10
OregonP120.210.2181.8281.820.140.14
Cal PolyBW0.190.1928.5728.57-0.08-0.08
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.190.1972.4172.410.080.08
Northern IowaMVC0.180.1863.6463.640.050.05
UC IrvineBW0.170.1771.8871.880.080.08
Utah ValleyWAC0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
UC RiversideBW0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
SeattleWAC0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.160.1655.1755.170.020.02
PortlandWCC0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
BYUWCC0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
San DiegoWCC0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
HawaiiBW0.140.1483.3383.330.090.09
South DakotaSum0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
Oral RobertsSum0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Washington St.P120.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
MercerSC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.110.1118.5218.52-0.07-0.07
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.110.1120.0020.00-0.06-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
PacificWCC0.110.1123.0823.08-0.06-0.06
Arizona St.P120.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
Northern ColoradoBSky0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
OaklandHorz0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
RiceCUSA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1079.3179.310.060.06
Michigan St.B100.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
SouthernSWAC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
IdahoBSky0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
MontanaBSky0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
VMISC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.05-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
ColgatePat0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
UMKCWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
LehighPat0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
BryantNEC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
AuburnSEC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
USCP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
UtahP120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
WagnerNEC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Penn St.B100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0724.2424.24-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
DukeACC0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
FurmanSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0611.1111.11-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0657.6957.690.010.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
AmericanPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.453.45-0.05-0.05
IPFWSum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
IUPUISum0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0529.1729.17-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
KansasB120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01