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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Air Force

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:198.7
Current RPI:172
Expected SOS:148
Current SOS:187
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:12-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC RPI:227
Expected OOC SOS:345



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-721.00.01%
19-864.40.13%
18-979.60.54%
17-1099.01.47%
16-11118.13.67%
15-12138.18.63%
14-13161.212.81%
13-14183.517.56%
12-15204.218.46%
11-16225.315.77%
10-17245.610.59%
9-18265.76.36%
8-19282.82.83%
7-20296.90.92%
6-21310.80.20%
5-22326.00.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Air Force.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Army (157.6)PatA84-78L0%0.0
11-15The Citadel (323.0)SCN68-55W100%0.0
11-25Colorado (47.7)P12A0-010%-15.4
11-30Texas Tech (173.3)B12A0-029%-6.5
12-3Grambling St. (336.0)SWACH0-093%17.8
12-8Nebraska Omaha (285.7)SumH0-078%9.2
12-13Arkansas Pine Bluff (312.0)SWACH0-088%14.2
12-20UC Davis (264.8)BWH0-075%8.0
12-22Jacksonville St. (282.8)OVCH0-082%11.0
12-31San Diego St. (21.7)MWCA0-07%-17.9
1-3Nevada (141.7)MWCA0-027%-7.2
1-7San Jose St. (296.3)MWCH0-080%10.3
1-10Colorado St. (65.3)MWCH0-040%-3.1
1-14New Mexico (101.5)MWCA0-021%-9.8
1-17Utah St. (106.1)MWCA0-024%-8.4
1-20San Diego St. (21.7)MWCH0-019%-10.8
1-24Boise St. (64.0)MWCH0-036%-4.2
1-28San Jose St. (296.3)MWCA0-060%3.1
1-31UNLV (148.0)MWCA0-033%-5.3
2-4New Mexico (101.5)MWCH0-042%-2.6
2-7Wyoming (135.4)MWCH0-050%-0.1
2-11Boise St. (64.0)MWCA0-017%-11.4
2-14UNLV (148.0)MWCH0-056%1.8
2-21Colorado St. (65.3)MWCA0-020%-10.3
2-25Nevada (141.7)MWCH0-050%-0.1
2-28Utah St. (106.1)MWCH0-046%-1.2
3-4Fresno St. (206.8)MWCA0-042%-2.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Air Force's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Air Force's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Air Force.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Air ForceMWC35.4226.4362.5042.928.85-3.74
Utah St.MWC0.004.68100.0064.280.001.34
Colorado St.MWC0.004.67100.0062.270.001.15
UNLVMWC0.004.6766.6745.460.00-0.42
Boise St.MWC0.004.67100.0065.270.001.43
San Jose St.MWC0.004.660.0019.95-0.00-2.80
NevadaMWC0.004.6650.0051.340.000.13
San Diego St.MWC0.004.63100.0081.750.002.94
New MexicoMWC0.004.6375.0061.500.001.07
WyomingMWC0.002.95100.0056.360.000.38
Fresno St.MWC0.002.950.0032.02-0.00-1.06
UC DavisBW0.001.99100.0043.830.00-0.25
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.001.9525.0033.96-0.00-0.63
ColoradoP120.001.95100.0067.620.000.69
Nebraska OmahaSum0.001.9250.0036.070.00-0.54
Texas TechB120.001.9250.0042.630.00-0.28
Grambling St.SWAC0.001.910.0024.38-0.00-0.98
ArmyPat25.001.85100.0056.2425.000.23
Jacksonville St.OVC0.001.850.0032.98-0.00-0.63
The CitadelSC25.001.850.0028.85-25.00-0.78
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.270.0038.57-0.00-0.06
WashingtonP120.000.24100.0056.460.000.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.230.0047.54-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.2350.0026.710.00-0.11
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.2333.3365.68-0.000.07
Long Beach St.BW0.000.2133.3352.91-0.000.01
UtahP120.000.2066.6770.360.000.08
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.200.0033.60-0.00-0.06
Cal PolyBW0.000.1750.0038.240.00-0.04
Washington St.P120.000.1733.3327.05-0.00-0.08
CaliforniaP120.000.1775.0073.240.000.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.160.0038.98-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.160.0062.15-0.000.04
SouthernSWAC0.000.160.0045.55-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.1650.0062.440.000.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.160.0038.83-0.00-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.000.160.0024.22-0.00-0.08
VMISC10.420.1450.0043.730.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.1433.3347.72-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.1450.0052.770.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.14100.0050.390.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1450.0047.150.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1333.3344.98-0.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.130.0027.23-0.00-0.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.130.0040.22-0.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1333.3335.37-0.00-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.130.0015.85-0.00-0.09
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.130.0038.27-0.00-0.03
MontanaBSky0.000.130.0049.81-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.1366.6748.270.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.13100.0068.970.000.05
Arizona St.P120.000.13100.0058.420.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.13100.0069.310.000.05
South DakotaSum0.000.130.0036.84-0.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1333.3349.18-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.13100.0068.290.000.05
Idaho St.BSky0.000.130.0028.50-0.00-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.000.130.0054.04-0.000.01
KansasB120.000.1350.0060.200.000.03
FurmanSC0.000.1150.0025.820.00-0.05
PacificWCC0.000.1150.0029.930.00-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.000.11100.0051.000.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.1066.6751.090.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.1050.0062.910.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.100.0038.12-0.00-0.02
NavyPat0.000.100.0032.22-0.00-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.100.0034.26-0.00-0.03
IdahoBSky0.000.1050.0047.220.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.1075.0054.690.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1050.0044.430.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.10100.0054.240.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.10100.0065.750.000.03
Loyola MDPat0.000.1066.6738.520.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.10100.0057.620.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.100.0020.87-0.00-0.06
Kansas St.B120.000.0966.6755.230.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0966.6752.470.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.070.0054.47-0.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.070.0048.48-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0733.3332.57-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.07100.0057.560.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.070.0028.95-0.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.070.0045.03-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0766.6774.980.000.04
Oregon St.P120.000.07100.0050.080.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.070.0054.32-0.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0766.6771.300.000.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.070.0029.61-0.00-0.03
AmericanPat0.000.0766.6764.270.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0733.3357.87-0.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0733.3346.82-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.07100.0058.280.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.07100.0064.850.000.02
ColgatePat0.000.070.0036.43-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.070.0058.17-0.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.07100.0060.630.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0750.0065.390.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0733.3330.78-0.00-0.03
LafayettePat0.000.0766.6762.890.000.02
LehighPat0.000.070.0035.69-0.00-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0733.3328.03-0.00-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.07100.0059.140.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0733.3347.78-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0733.3349.79-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.07100.0070.600.000.03
UCLAP120.000.07100.0061.850.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.07100.0069.630.000.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.070.0034.57-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.07100.0081.110.000.04
AuburnSEC0.000.0666.6742.560.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0650.0063.960.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0650.0072.160.000.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0650.0041.690.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.06100.0063.380.000.02
George MasonA100.000.0625.0022.09-0.00-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0049.560.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0054.580.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0650.0062.510.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0036.560.00-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.060.0024.76-0.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0061.070.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0027.72-0.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.060.0037.20-0.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.060.0055.60-0.000.01
BaylorB120.000.06100.0068.940.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0061.270.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0650.0059.230.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0053.870.000.00
TexasB120.000.06100.0084.130.000.04
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0068.580.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.040.0046.41-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0425.0057.21-0.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0450.0056.300.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0466.6777.370.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.04100.0069.430.000.01
PurdueB100.000.04100.0060.570.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.04100.0041.370.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0063.410.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0333.3354.24-0.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0039.15-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0054.540.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0027.18-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0033.61-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0037.800.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.030.0034.27-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0086.380.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6757.590.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.030.0041.45-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.030.0016.80-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.030.0043.44-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0350.0054.250.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.03100.0051.030.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.030.0043.21-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.03100.0070.690.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.03100.0061.810.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC4.170.030.0054.88-4.170.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.03100.0029.380.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0350.0059.030.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0029.88-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0350.0054.170.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0033.39-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0016.72-0.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0079.370.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.030.0065.36-0.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0072.260.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0333.3336.04-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0035.17-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0333.3367.72-0.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.030.0041.63-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.030.0032.16-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0350.0035.880.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0049.490.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0056.600.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.0366.6763.580.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.03100.0058.330.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.030.0038.29-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0366.6756.820.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0046.320.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0053.20-0.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0350.0054.660.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0031.91-0.00-0.01