The results on this page EXCLUDE CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED DAILY

New! For the weekly updated Air Force page with conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Feb 7, 2010.

Air Force

Conference:		MWC
Expected RPI:		235.8
Current RPI:		241
Expected SOS:		97
Current SOS:		130
Current Record:		7-13
Expected Record:		8-19
Current Conf Record:		1-8
Expected Conf Record:		2-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:		0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:		0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:		0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:		2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:		6-1
Current OOC Record:		6-5
Expected OOC Record:		6-5
Expected OOC RPI:		201
Expected OOC SOS:		236

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-15	176.2	0.12%
11-16	191.8	1.21%
10-17	208.9	8.84%
9-18	226.2	26.71%
8-19	240.1	40.06%
7-20	252.4	23.05%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Air Force.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-21	Northern Colorado (103.7)	BSky	H	46-70	L	0%	0.0
11-28	Charleston Southern (268.6)	BSth	H	68-58	W	100%	0.0
12-2	North Carolina Central (345.5)	ind	H	61-49	W	100%	0.0
12-5	Missouri St. (85.5)	MVC	A	48-58	L	0%	0.0
12-8	Prairie View A&M (250.9)	SWAC	H	75-41	W	100%	0.0
12-12	Washington St. (111.0)	P10	N	68-75	L	0%	0.0
12-19	Northern Arizona (204.1)	BSky	H	52-60	L	0%	0.0
12-22	UC Davis (285.3)	BW	H	69-57	W	100%	0.0
12-28	Niagara (157.5)	MAAC	N	77-71	W	100%	0.0
12-29	Texas El Paso (53.5)	CUSA	A	47-58	L	0%	0.0
1-2	Texas Pan American (326.2)	GWC	H	72-65	W	100%	0.0
1-6	Texas Christian (174.6)	MWC	A	50-59	L	0%	0.0
1-9	Colorado St. (113.5)	MWC	A	48-70	L	0%	0.0
1-13	Brigham Young (15.9)	MWC	H	49-67	L	0%	0.0
1-20	New Mexico (14.3)	MWC	H	50-73	L	0%	0.0
1-23	Utah (162.8)	MWC	A	54-71	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Nevada Las Vegas (32.4)	MWC	A	50-60	L	0%	0.0
1-30	Wyoming (206.5)	MWC	H	70-63	W	100%	0.0
2-2	San Diego St. (44.0)	MWC	A	48-70	L	0%	0.0
2-6	Texas Christian (174.6)	MWC	H	51-65	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Colorado St. (113.5)	MWC	H	0-0		37%	-3.6
2-13	Brigham Young (15.9)	MWC	A	0-0		1%	-26.6
2-20	New Mexico (14.3)	MWC	A	0-0		2%	-22.2
2-24	Utah (162.8)	MWC	H	0-0		34%	-4.6
2-27	Nevada Las Vegas (32.4)	MWC	H	0-0		10%	-13.9
3-2	Wyoming (206.5)	MWC	A	0-0		28%	-6.2
3-6	San Diego St. (44.0)	MWC	H	0-0		14%	-11.8

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Air Force's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Sorted by , Current Weight, End-Of-Season Weight, Current Help Index, Expected Help Index, and then Alphabetically.

Weights are percentages.

Air Force's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Air Force.

Help Ind is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

BY CURRENT WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
Air Force	MWC	26.26	26.38	27.38	23.66	-11.88	-13.90
Texas Christian	MWC	5.50	4.65	35.00	33.70	-1.65	-1.52
Colorado St.	MWC	3.19	4.69	57.14	50.73	0.46	0.07
New Mexico	MWC	3.08	4.63	86.96	82.45	2.27	3.01
Brigham Young	MWC	3.07	4.63	86.96	86.57	2.27	3.38
San Diego St.	MWC	3.06	4.62	65.00	65.80	0.92	1.46
Wyoming	MWC	3.06	4.61	35.00	30.33	-0.92	-1.82
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	3.00	4.59	80.95	79.86	1.86	2.74
Utah	MWC	2.95	4.59	42.86	41.55	-0.42	-0.78
Northern Colorado	BSky	2.85	2.12	78.26	77.24	1.61	1.16
Northern Arizona	BSky	2.82	2.14	42.11	43.13	-0.45	-0.29
Texas Pan American	GWC	2.68	1.95	12.50	19.44	-2.01	-1.19
UC Davis	BW	2.56	1.92	36.84	34.44	-0.67	-0.60
Texas El Paso	CUSA	2.55	1.91	76.19	74.82	1.34	0.95
Charleston Southern	BSth	2.50	1.85	42.11	41.76	-0.39	-0.31
Missouri St.	MVC	2.50	1.85	65.22	63.40	0.76	0.50
Niagara	MAAC	2.50	1.85	54.17	53.57	0.21	0.13
North Carolina Central	ind	2.50	1.85	5.00	10.17	-2.25	-1.48
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	2.50	1.85	50.00	56.02	0.00	0.22
Washington St.	P10	2.50	1.85	61.90	57.32	0.60	0.27
Arizona	P10	0.34	0.29	52.17	53.65	0.01	0.02
Arizona St.	P10	0.34	0.25	66.67	67.74	0.11	0.09
Fresno St.	WAC	0.29	0.26	47.83	48.98	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.29	0.22	61.90	56.37	0.07	0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.29	0.23	45.00	43.95	-0.03	-0.03
Montana	BSky	0.29	0.20	68.18	70.35	0.10	0.08
Weber St.	BSky	0.28	0.32	61.90	65.04	0.07	0.10
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.27	0.18	82.61	75.26	0.17	0.09
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.26	0.14	45.00	54.19	-0.03	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.24	0.23	33.33	36.45	-0.08	-0.06
Montana St.	BSky	0.23	0.14	47.62	48.65	-0.01	-0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.23	0.13	47.62	50.82	-0.01	0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.22	0.23	18.18	19.18	-0.14	-0.14
Idaho St.	BSky	0.22	0.26	19.05	24.00	-0.14	-0.13
Texas Tech	B12	0.22	0.16	68.18	59.30	0.08	0.03
Nebraska	B12	0.22	0.15	56.52	50.42	0.03	0.00
Hawaii	WAC	0.21	0.22	36.36	33.80	-0.06	-0.07
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.18	0.13	60.00	59.64	0.04	0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.18	0.20	19.05	20.58	-0.11	-0.12
High Point	BSth	0.18	0.15	42.86	44.37	-0.03	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.18	0.17	33.33	34.27	-0.06	-0.05
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.18	0.17	30.43	29.01	-0.07	-0.07
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.18	0.13	39.13	43.30	-0.04	-0.02
Oregon	P10	0.18	0.16	54.55	48.81	0.02	-0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.17	0.10	27.27	31.08	-0.08	-0.04
Portland St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	38.10	39.65	-0.04	-0.04
Denver	SB	0.17	0.16	60.87	59.58	0.04	0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.17	0.16	33.33	33.43	-0.06	-0.05
Oklahoma	B12	0.17	0.13	59.09	51.13	0.03	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.17	0.13	79.17	77.30	0.10	0.07
Auburn	SEC	0.16	0.10	45.45	42.62	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.16	0.13	91.30	88.21	0.14	0.10
Texas St.	Slnd	0.16	0.09	36.84	36.82	-0.04	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.16	0.15	66.67	63.46	0.05	0.04
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.16	0.12	55.56	58.32	0.02	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.16	0.12	52.17	50.21	0.01	0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.16	0.12	50.00	50.68	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.13	0.07	29.17	28.85	-0.06	-0.03
Iowa	B10	0.13	0.07	33.33	30.82	-0.04	-0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.13	0.11	0.00	5.15	-0.13	-0.10
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.13	0.11	33.33	46.80	-0.04	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.13	0.11	22.73	27.28	-0.07	-0.05
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.13	0.10	69.57	63.55	0.05	0.03
Texas A&M	B12	0.13	0.10	72.73	66.85	0.06	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.13	0.07	36.36	36.06	-0.03	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.13	0.07	20.00	23.58	-0.08	-0.04
NC Asheville	BSth	0.13	0.07	33.33	37.71	-0.04	-0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.13	0.07	12.50	15.31	-0.09	-0.05
Winthrop	BSth	0.13	0.07	52.38	54.80	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.12	0.07	52.38	51.63	0.01	0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.12	0.13	45.00	48.63	-0.01	-0.00
Pacific	BW	0.12	0.13	68.18	68.10	0.04	0.05
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.07	81.82	72.57	0.08	0.03
Seattle	ind	0.12	0.13	45.83	48.87	-0.01	-0.00
Stanford	P10	0.12	0.10	43.48	43.10	-0.02	-0.01
Winston Salem St.	ind	0.12	0.13	29.41	29.63	-0.05	-0.05
Savannah St.	ind	0.12	0.07	30.00	31.19	-0.05	-0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.12	0.13	27.27	25.31	-0.05	-0.06
The Citadel	SC	0.11	0.07	45.45	45.80	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.11	0.09	45.00	48.32	-0.01	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.10	81.82	79.60	0.07	0.06
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.11	0.09	39.13	35.38	-0.02	-0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.11	0.10	31.82	30.34	-0.04	-0.04
Southern California	P10	0.11	0.13	60.87	59.61	0.02	0.02
UCLA	P10	0.11	0.13	47.83	43.79	-0.00	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.11	0.13	44.00	43.20	-0.01	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.11	0.10	69.57	66.00	0.04	0.03
South Dakota	GWC	0.11	0.13	50.00	60.53	0.00	0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.11	0.06	57.14	57.10	0.02	0.01
California	P10	0.11	0.12	65.22	68.42	0.03	0.05
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.13	56.52	54.46	0.01	0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.11	0.15	57.14	60.54	0.02	0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.11	0.09	22.22	26.51	-0.06	-0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.11	0.12	31.82	32.31	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.11	0.13	54.55	54.05	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	Sum	0.11	0.10	19.05	20.55	-0.07	-0.06
Tulsa	CUSA	0.11	0.09	77.27	70.93	0.06	0.04
Utah St.	WAC	0.11	0.12	73.91	76.66	0.05	0.06
Central Florida	CUSA	0.11	0.06	47.62	44.47	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.06	23.81	27.28	-0.06	-0.03
Evansville	MVC	0.10	0.06	22.73	22.60	-0.06	-0.03
North Dakota	GWC	0.10	0.09	15.79	27.84	-0.07	-0.04
Canisius	MAAC	0.10	0.06	44.00	45.15	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.10	0.06	20.00	20.57	-0.06	-0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.10	0.06	72.00	70.73	0.04	0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.10	0.06	50.00	51.56	0.00	0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.10	0.06	58.33	58.93	0.02	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.10	0.06	47.37	52.55	-0.01	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.07	0.07	28.57	36.52	-0.03	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	33.33	39.38	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.07	0.04	60.87	55.54	0.02	0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.07	0.07	23.53	25.88	-0.04	-0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	47.62	49.36	-0.00	-0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.06	0.11	80.95	82.07	0.04	0.07
College of Charleston	SC	0.06	0.04	66.67	65.62	0.02	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.07	42.86	41.51	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.07	42.86	45.66	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.06	0.04	71.43	67.85	0.03	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.03	33.33	33.96	-0.02	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.07	52.38	56.23	0.00	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.04	14.29	15.65	-0.04	-0.03
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.07	36.36	40.08	-0.02	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.07	21.05	22.43	-0.04	-0.04
Boise St.	WAC	0.06	0.10	45.45	45.95	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.06	0.07	20.00	21.94	-0.04	-0.04
Florida International	SB	0.06	0.04	24.00	23.74	-0.03	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.07	31.82	42.24	-0.02	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.04	40.91	34.84	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.04	43.48	39.98	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.07	47.83	44.39	-0.00	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.04	68.18	62.73	0.02	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.06	0.07	41.67	42.69	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.04	86.96	85.47	0.04	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.04	56.52	51.96	0.01	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.06	0.04	58.33	54.32	0.01	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.07	50.00	50.91	0.00	0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.07	86.96	84.62	0.04	0.05
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.07	81.82	75.66	0.04	0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.04	30.00	31.79	-0.02	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.04	28.57	27.72	-0.03	-0.02
Colorado	B12	0.06	0.06	42.86	40.56	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.03	81.82	83.61	0.04	0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.06	0.06	26.09	31.05	-0.03	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	66.67	59.01	0.02	0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.03	42.86	45.31	-0.01	-0.00
Louisville	BE	0.06	0.06	65.22	62.07	0.02	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.06	0.03	69.57	69.99	0.02	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.06	45.45	44.00	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.03	73.91	72.52	0.03	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.03	25.00	34.68	-0.03	-0.01
Oregon St.	P10	0.06	0.06	45.45	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	18.18	21.04	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.06	0.06	55.56	55.85	0.01	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.03	31.82	29.58	-0.02	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	82.61	78.56	0.04	0.04
Washington	P10	0.06	0.06	69.57	68.86	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.06	36.36	38.12	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.03	52.17	48.47	0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.03	23.81	28.38	-0.03	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.06	72.73	71.91	0.02	0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	46.79	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	36.18	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.07	27.27	29.40	-0.02	-0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	26.32	31.51	-0.02	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.06	43.48	47.68	-0.01	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.06	54.17	58.55	0.00	0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.14	0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.03	61.90	56.12	0.01	0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.03	5.00	8.59	-0.05	-0.03
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.06	16.00	21.62	-0.04	-0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.03	52.17	55.04	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	55.00	53.61	0.01	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.03	55.00	52.00	0.01	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.03	47.83	46.11	-0.00	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.03	56.00	55.91	0.01	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.06	69.57	64.51	0.02	0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.03	25.00	26.64	-0.03	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.73	-0.00	-0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.06	33.33	35.33	-0.02	-0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.06	4.17	4.73	-0.05	-0.05
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	68.48	0.02	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.03	73.91	70.60	0.02	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.03	39.13	47.65	-0.01	-0.00
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.06	22.22	27.56	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.03	69.57	67.93	0.02	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.06	52.00	49.34	0.00	-0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.06	83.33	81.25	0.03	0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.03	40.00	42.64	-0.01	-0.00
Texas	B12	0.05	0.03	82.61	78.76	0.03	0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.06	36.84	39.02	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	66.67	57.29	0.02	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.00	0.06	22.73	24.05	-0.00	-0.03
Longwood	ind	0.00	0.07	23.81	29.40	-0.00	-0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.00	0.03	66.67	65.54	0.00	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.00	0.03	50.00	50.99	0.00	0.00

BY END-OF-SEASON WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
Air Force	MWC	26.26	26.38	27.38	23.66	-11.88	-13.90
Colorado St.	MWC	3.19	4.69	57.14	50.73	0.46	0.07
Texas Christian	MWC	5.50	4.65	35.00	33.70	-1.65	-1.52
New Mexico	MWC	3.08	4.63	86.96	82.45	2.27	3.01
Brigham Young	MWC	3.07	4.63	86.96	86.57	2.27	3.38
San Diego St.	MWC	3.06	4.62	65.00	65.80	0.92	1.46
Wyoming	MWC	3.06	4.61	35.00	30.33	-0.92	-1.82
Utah	MWC	2.95	4.59	42.86	41.55	-0.42	-0.78
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	3.00	4.59	80.95	79.86	1.86	2.74
Northern Arizona	BSky	2.82	2.14	42.11	43.13	-0.45	-0.29
Northern Colorado	BSky	2.85	2.12	78.26	77.24	1.61	1.16
Texas Pan American	GWC	2.68	1.95	12.50	19.44	-2.01	-1.19
UC Davis	BW	2.56	1.92	36.84	34.44	-0.67	-0.60
Texas El Paso	CUSA	2.55	1.91	76.19	74.82	1.34	0.95
Charleston Southern	BSth	2.50	1.85	42.11	41.76	-0.39	-0.31
Missouri St.	MVC	2.50	1.85	65.22	63.40	0.76	0.50
Niagara	MAAC	2.50	1.85	54.17	53.57	0.21	0.13
North Carolina Central	ind	2.50	1.85	5.00	10.17	-2.25	-1.48
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	2.50	1.85	50.00	56.02	0.00	0.22
Washington St.	P10	2.50	1.85	61.90	57.32	0.60	0.27
Weber St.	BSky	0.28	0.32	61.90	65.04	0.07	0.10
Arizona	P10	0.34	0.29	52.17	53.65	0.01	0.02
Fresno St.	WAC	0.29	0.26	47.83	48.98	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.22	0.26	19.05	24.00	-0.14	-0.13
Arizona St.	P10	0.34	0.25	66.67	67.74	0.11	0.09
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.22	0.23	18.18	19.18	-0.14	-0.14
UC Riverside	BW	0.24	0.23	33.33	36.45	-0.08	-0.06
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.29	0.23	45.00	43.95	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.29	0.22	61.90	56.37	0.07	0.03
Hawaii	WAC	0.21	0.22	36.36	33.80	-0.06	-0.07
Montana	BSky	0.29	0.20	68.18	70.35	0.10	0.08
Southern	SWAC	0.18	0.20	19.05	20.58	-0.11	-0.12
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.27	0.18	82.61	75.26	0.17	0.09
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.18	0.17	30.43	29.01	-0.07	-0.07
Portland St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	38.10	39.65	-0.04	-0.04
Santa Clara	WCC	0.18	0.17	33.33	34.27	-0.06	-0.05
Denver	SB	0.17	0.16	60.87	59.58	0.04	0.03
Oregon	P10	0.18	0.16	54.55	48.81	0.02	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.17	0.16	33.33	33.43	-0.06	-0.05
Texas Tech	B12	0.22	0.16	68.18	59.30	0.08	0.03
Nevada	WAC	0.11	0.15	57.14	60.54	0.02	0.03
Nebraska	B12	0.22	0.15	56.52	50.42	0.03	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.16	0.15	66.67	63.46	0.05	0.04
High Point	BSth	0.18	0.15	42.86	44.37	-0.03	-0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.23	0.14	47.62	48.65	-0.01	-0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.26	0.14	45.00	54.19	-0.03	0.01
Winston Salem St.	ind	0.12	0.13	29.41	29.63	-0.05	-0.05
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.12	0.13	45.00	48.63	-0.01	-0.00
Pacific	BW	0.12	0.13	68.18	68.10	0.04	0.05
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.18	0.13	60.00	59.64	0.04	0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.18	0.13	39.13	43.30	-0.04	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.11	0.13	44.00	43.20	-0.01	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.16	0.13	91.30	88.21	0.14	0.10
Pepperdine	WCC	0.12	0.13	27.27	25.31	-0.05	-0.06
Seattle	ind	0.12	0.13	45.83	48.87	-0.01	-0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.23	0.13	47.62	50.82	-0.01	0.00
Southern California	P10	0.11	0.13	60.87	59.61	0.02	0.02
UCLA	P10	0.11	0.13	47.83	43.79	-0.00	-0.02
South Dakota	GWC	0.11	0.13	50.00	60.53	0.00	0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.13	56.52	54.46	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.17	0.13	59.09	51.13	0.03	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.11	0.13	54.55	54.05	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.17	0.13	79.17	77.30	0.10	0.07
California	P10	0.11	0.12	65.22	68.42	0.03	0.05
San Francisco	WCC	0.11	0.12	31.82	32.31	-0.04	-0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.16	0.12	52.17	50.21	0.01	0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.16	0.12	50.00	50.68	0.00	0.00
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.16	0.12	55.56	58.32	0.02	0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.11	0.12	73.91	76.66	0.05	0.06
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.06	0.11	80.95	82.07	0.04	0.07
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.13	0.11	0.00	5.15	-0.13	-0.10
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.13	0.11	33.33	46.80	-0.04	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.13	0.11	22.73	27.28	-0.07	-0.05
Colgate	Pat	0.17	0.10	27.27	31.08	-0.08	-0.04
Boise St.	WAC	0.06	0.10	45.45	45.95	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.13	0.10	69.57	63.55	0.05	0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.16	0.10	45.45	42.62	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P10	0.12	0.10	43.48	43.10	-0.02	-0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.13	0.10	72.73	66.85	0.06	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.11	0.10	69.57	66.00	0.04	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.10	81.82	79.60	0.07	0.06
Rice	CUSA	0.11	0.10	31.82	30.34	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Utah	Sum	0.11	0.10	19.05	20.55	-0.07	-0.06
Tulsa	CUSA	0.11	0.09	77.27	70.93	0.06	0.04
Texas St.	Slnd	0.16	0.09	36.84	36.82	-0.04	-0.02
Idaho	WAC	0.11	0.09	45.00	48.32	-0.01	-0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.11	0.09	39.13	35.38	-0.02	-0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.11	0.09	22.22	26.51	-0.06	-0.04
North Dakota	GWC	0.10	0.09	15.79	27.84	-0.07	-0.04
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.07	0.07	28.57	36.52	-0.03	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	33.33	39.38	-0.02	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.13	0.07	20.00	23.58	-0.08	-0.04
Grambling	SWAC	0.07	0.07	23.53	25.88	-0.04	-0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	47.62	49.36	-0.00	-0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.07	42.86	41.51	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.13	0.07	33.33	37.71	-0.04	-0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.13	0.07	12.50	15.31	-0.09	-0.05
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.07	52.38	56.23	0.00	0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.07	21.05	22.43	-0.04	-0.04
Winthrop	BSth	0.13	0.07	52.38	54.80	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.13	0.07	29.17	28.85	-0.06	-0.03
Iowa	B10	0.13	0.07	33.33	30.82	-0.04	-0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.07	81.82	72.57	0.08	0.03
Longwood	ind	0.00	0.07	23.81	29.40	-0.00	-0.03
Savannah St.	ind	0.12	0.07	30.00	31.19	-0.05	-0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.12	0.07	52.38	51.63	0.01	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.11	0.07	45.45	45.80	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.06	0.07	20.00	21.94	-0.04	-0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.07	27.27	29.40	-0.02	-0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.13	0.07	36.36	36.06	-0.03	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.07	31.82	42.24	-0.02	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.07	42.86	45.66	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.07	47.83	44.39	-0.00	-0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.06	0.07	41.67	42.69	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.07	50.00	50.91	0.00	0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.07	86.96	84.62	0.04	0.05
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.07	81.82	75.66	0.04	0.03
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.07	36.36	40.08	-0.02	-0.01
Colorado	B12	0.06	0.06	42.86	40.56	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.06	0.06	26.09	31.05	-0.03	-0.02
Louisville	BE	0.06	0.06	65.22	62.07	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P10	0.06	0.06	45.45	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	18.18	21.04	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.06	0.06	55.56	55.85	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	82.61	78.56	0.04	0.04
Washington	P10	0.06	0.06	69.57	68.86	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.06	36.36	38.12	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.11	0.06	57.14	57.10	0.02	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.11	0.06	47.62	44.47	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.06	23.81	27.28	-0.06	-0.03
Evansville	MVC	0.10	0.06	22.73	22.60	-0.06	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	66.67	59.01	0.02	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.06	45.45	44.00	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.10	0.06	44.00	45.15	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.10	0.06	20.00	20.57	-0.06	-0.04
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.06	72.73	71.91	0.02	0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.06	69.57	64.51	0.02	0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.00	0.06	22.73	24.05	-0.00	-0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.10	0.06	72.00	70.73	0.04	0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.10	0.06	50.00	51.56	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.06	33.33	35.33	-0.02	-0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.06	4.17	4.73	-0.05	-0.05
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.06	43.48	47.68	-0.01	-0.00
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.06	22.22	27.56	-0.03	-0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.06	54.17	58.55	0.00	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.06	52.00	49.34	0.00	-0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.06	83.33	81.25	0.03	0.04
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.10	0.06	58.33	58.93	0.02	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.10	0.06	47.37	52.55	-0.01	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.06	36.84	39.02	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.06	16.00	21.62	-0.04	-0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.07	0.04	60.87	55.54	0.02	0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.06	0.04	66.67	65.62	0.02	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.06	0.04	71.43	67.85	0.03	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.04	14.29	15.65	-0.04	-0.03
Florida International	SB	0.06	0.04	24.00	23.74	-0.03	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.04	40.91	34.84	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.04	43.48	39.98	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.04	68.18	62.73	0.02	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.04	86.96	85.47	0.04	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.04	56.52	51.96	0.01	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.06	0.04	58.33	54.32	0.01	0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.04	30.00	31.79	-0.02	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.04	28.57	27.72	-0.03	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.03	33.33	33.96	-0.02	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.03	81.82	83.61	0.04	0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.03	42.86	45.31	-0.01	-0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	36.18	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.00	0.03	66.67	65.54	0.00	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	26.32	31.51	-0.02	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.06	0.03	69.57	69.99	0.02	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.03	73.91	72.52	0.03	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.03	25.00	34.68	-0.03	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.14	0.00	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.03	31.82	29.58	-0.02	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.03	52.17	48.47	0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.03	23.81	28.38	-0.03	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	46.79	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.03	61.90	56.12	0.01	0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.03	5.00	8.59	-0.05	-0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.03	52.17	55.04	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	55.00	53.61	0.01	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.03	55.00	52.00	0.01	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.03	47.83	46.11	-0.00	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.03	56.00	55.91	0.01	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.03	25.00	26.64	-0.03	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.73	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	68.48	0.02	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.03	73.91	70.60	0.02	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.03	39.13	47.65	-0.01	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.03	69.57	67.93	0.02	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.03	40.00	42.64	-0.01	-0.00
Texas	B12	0.05	0.03	82.61	78.76	0.03	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	66.67	57.29	0.02	0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.00	0.03	50.00	50.99	0.00	0.00

BY CURRENT HELP INDEX: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
New Mexico	MWC	3.08	4.63	86.96	82.45	2.27	3.01
Brigham Young	MWC	3.07	4.63	86.96	86.57	2.27	3.38
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	3.00	4.59	80.95	79.86	1.86	2.74
Northern Colorado	BSky	2.85	2.12	78.26	77.24	1.61	1.16
Texas El Paso	CUSA	2.55	1.91	76.19	74.82	1.34	0.95
San Diego St.	MWC	3.06	4.62	65.00	65.80	0.92	1.46
Missouri St.	MVC	2.50	1.85	65.22	63.40	0.76	0.50
Washington St.	P10	2.50	1.85	61.90	57.32	0.60	0.27
Colorado St.	MWC	3.19	4.69	57.14	50.73	0.46	0.07
Niagara	MAAC	2.50	1.85	54.17	53.57	0.21	0.13
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.27	0.18	82.61	75.26	0.17	0.09
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.16	0.13	91.30	88.21	0.14	0.10
Arizona St.	P10	0.34	0.25	66.67	67.74	0.11	0.09
Montana	BSky	0.29	0.20	68.18	70.35	0.10	0.08
Wichita St.	MVC	0.17	0.13	79.17	77.30	0.10	0.07
Texas Tech	B12	0.22	0.16	68.18	59.30	0.08	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.07	81.82	72.57	0.08	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.10	81.82	79.60	0.07	0.06
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.29	0.22	61.90	56.37	0.07	0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.28	0.32	61.90	65.04	0.07	0.10
Tulsa	CUSA	0.11	0.09	77.27	70.93	0.06	0.04
Texas A&M	B12	0.13	0.10	72.73	66.85	0.06	0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.16	0.15	66.67	63.46	0.05	0.04
Utah St.	WAC	0.11	0.12	73.91	76.66	0.05	0.06
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.13	0.10	69.57	63.55	0.05	0.03
Pacific	BW	0.12	0.13	68.18	68.10	0.04	0.05
Iona	MAAC	0.10	0.06	72.00	70.73	0.04	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.04	86.96	85.47	0.04	0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.07	86.96	84.62	0.04	0.05
Akron	MAC	0.11	0.10	69.57	66.00	0.04	0.03
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.06	0.11	80.95	82.07	0.04	0.07
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.07	81.82	75.66	0.04	0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	82.61	78.56	0.04	0.04
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.18	0.13	60.00	59.64	0.04	0.03
Denver	SB	0.17	0.16	60.87	59.58	0.04	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.03	81.82	83.61	0.04	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.06	83.33	81.25	0.03	0.04
California	P10	0.11	0.12	65.22	68.42	0.03	0.05
Texas	B12	0.05	0.03	82.61	78.76	0.03	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.17	0.13	59.09	51.13	0.03	0.00
Nebraska	B12	0.22	0.15	56.52	50.42	0.03	0.00