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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Air Force

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:251.0
Current RPI:251
Expected SOS:152
Current SOS:152
Current Record:10-18
Expected Record:10-18
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-3
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:304
Expected OOC SOS:310



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-18251.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Air Force.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Army (235.0)PatN68-79W100%0.0
11-9VMI (211.0)BSthA71-63L0%0.0
11-14Jackson St. (296.0)SWACH82-84L0%0.0
11-17Arkansas Pine Bluff (264.0)SWACH67-64W100%0.0
11-27Richmond (75.0)A10H60-83L0%0.0
11-30Colorado (34.0)P12H57-81L0%0.0
12-5South Dakota (255.0)SumH94-86W100%0.0
12-14UC Riverside (319.0)BWH62-52W100%0.0
12-21UC Davis (326.0)BWA80-74L0%0.0
1-1Utah St. (116.0)MWCH73-72W100%0.0
1-4UNLV (108.0)MWCA68-75W100%0.0
1-8Fresno St. (117.0)MWCA71-65L0%0.0
1-12San Diego St. (15.0)MWCH72-79L0%0.0
1-15San Jose St. (278.0)MWCH77-62W100%0.0
1-18Colorado St. (182.0)MWCA74-68L0%0.0
1-22Wyoming (135.0)MWCH59-66L0%0.0
1-29Boise St. (82.0)MWCA69-58L0%0.0
2-1Nevada (137.0)MWCA69-56L0%0.0
2-5Fresno St. (117.0)MWCH51-68L0%0.0
2-8Colorado St. (182.0)MWCH56-68L0%0.0
2-12San Jose St. (278.0)MWCA48-51W100%0.0
2-15San Diego St. (15.0)MWCA64-56L0%0.0
2-22Nevada (137.0)MWCH56-75L0%0.0
2-25Wyoming (135.0)MWCA53-55W100%0.0
3-1UNLV (108.0)MWCH67-93L0%0.0
3-5New Mexico (12.0)MWCA80-52L0%0.0
3-8Boise St. (82.0)MWCH64-61W100%0.0
3-12Fresno St. (117.0)MWCN61-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Air Force's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Air Force's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Air Force.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Air ForceMWC26.3926.3932.3532.35-9.32-9.32
Fresno St.MWC6.256.2542.8642.86-0.89-0.89
WyomingMWC4.614.6153.5753.570.330.33
Boise St.MWC4.584.5860.0060.000.920.92
San Diego St.MWC4.574.5786.2186.213.313.31
UNLVMWC4.554.5561.2961.291.031.03
NevadaMWC4.524.5243.3343.33-0.60-0.60
San Jose St.MWC4.524.5218.5218.52-2.84-2.84
Colorado St.MWC4.494.4942.8642.86-0.64-0.64
New MexicoMWC2.942.9481.2581.251.841.84
Utah St.MWC2.852.8556.6756.670.380.38
UC DavisBW1.961.9621.4321.43-1.12-1.12
ColoradoP121.931.9366.6766.670.640.64
Jackson St.SWAC1.931.9333.3333.33-0.64-0.64
UC RiversideBW1.901.9028.5728.57-0.82-0.82
South DakotaSum1.901.9034.6234.62-0.59-0.59
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.841.8439.2939.29-0.39-0.39
ArmyPat1.791.7948.2848.28-0.06-0.06
RichmondA101.791.7956.2556.250.220.22
VMIBSth1.791.7953.8553.850.140.14
Cal PolyBW0.270.2736.6736.67-0.07-0.07
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.260.2667.8667.860.090.09
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.240.2445.4545.45-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.240.2465.6265.620.080.08
Cal St. FullertonBW0.240.2435.4835.48-0.07-0.07
UtahP120.230.2363.3363.330.060.06
DenverSum0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
CaliforniaP120.190.1959.3859.380.040.04
ArizonaP120.190.1988.2488.240.150.15
HawaiiBW0.180.1862.0762.070.040.04
Long Beach St.BW0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.180.1830.3030.30-0.07-0.07
Alabama A&MSWAC0.180.1842.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.180.1848.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.170.173.573.57-0.16-0.16
PacificWCC0.170.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.170.1720.6920.69-0.10-0.10
Weber St.BSky0.150.1560.7160.710.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.150.1514.8114.81-0.10-0.10
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
RadfordBSth0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
SouthernSWAC0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
SeattleWAC0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1156.6756.670.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
FloridaSEC0.110.1194.1294.120.100.10
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
WashingtonP120.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
UCLAP120.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
USCP120.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0925.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UICHorz0.090.0913.7913.79-0.07-0.07
Montana St.BSky0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
BucknellPat0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
St. BonaventureA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
IdahoWAC0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
MarquetteBE0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
CampbellBSth0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
High PointBSth0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
IPFWSum0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
IUPUISum0.070.0710.3410.34-0.05-0.05
LibertyBSth0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0778.5778.570.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.05-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
AmericanPat0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
ColgatePat0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Holy CrossPat0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
LafayettePat0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
LehighPat0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
ElonSC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Oregon St.P120.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
StanfordP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
DelawareCAA0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
IonaMAAC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Iowa St.B120.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
KentuckySEC0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
MissouriSEC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0641.1841.18-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.04-0.04
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
MemphisAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
TroySB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
BaylorB120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01