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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Air Force

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:174.7
Current RPI:171
Expected SOS:75
Current SOS:112
Current Record:9-10
Expected Record:11-15
Current Conf Record:1-6
Expected Conf Record:3-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.12%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:195
Expected OOC SOS:297



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-11101.00.02%
14-12118.00.96%
13-13135.26.52%
12-14154.822.14%
11-15174.736.08%
10-16193.026.48%
9-17209.67.79%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Air Force.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Army (293.1)PatH87-71W100%0.0
11-12Virginia Military Inst (264.1)BSthH75-65W100%0.0
11-23Colorado (75.2)P12H73-76L0%0.0
12-3Drake (135.2)MVCA62-60L0%0.0
12-7Wright St. (216.3)HorzH55-34W100%0.0
12-10Arkansas Pine Bluff (327.1)SWACH63-51W100%0.0
12-17Maryland Eastern Shore (319.1)MEACH64-60W100%0.0
12-22Gonzaga (27.9)WCCA70-60L0%0.0
12-29Wagner (83.5)NECN61-72L0%0.0
12-30Eastern Michigan (246.9)MACN37-42W100%0.0
1-6Chicago St. (335.8)GWCH68-54W100%0.0
1-9Texas Pan American (309.3)GWCH67-50W100%0.0
1-14Boise St. (176.5)MWCA59-74W100%0.0
1-18Wyoming (55.5)MWCH53-64L0%0.0
1-21San Diego St. (26.6)MWCA57-44L0%0.0
1-25Texas Christian (123.7)MWCA59-56L0%0.0
1-28Nevada Las Vegas (9.6)MWCH63-65L0%0.0
1-31New Mexico (30.8)MWCH42-81L0%0.0
2-4Colorado St. (33.3)MWCA67-49L0%0.0
2-11Boise St. (176.5)MWCH0-049%-0.3
2-15Wyoming (55.5)MWCA0-012%-12.9
2-18San Diego St. (26.6)MWCH0-030%-5.9
2-22Texas Christian (123.7)MWCH0-058%2.3
2-25Nevada Las Vegas (9.6)MWCA0-04%-19.0
2-29New Mexico (30.8)MWCA0-04%-19.2
3-3Colorado St. (33.3)MWCH0-039%-3.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Air Force's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Air Force's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Air Force.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Air ForceMWC26.1626.3540.7435.51-4.84-7.64
WyomingMWC3.134.7275.0068.941.561.79
Texas ChristianMWC3.064.6955.0047.970.31-0.19
Colorado St.MWC3.064.6965.0059.290.920.87
San Diego St.MWC3.064.6985.0077.502.142.58
Boise St.MWC3.064.6845.0042.33-0.31-0.72
Nevada Las VegasMWC3.004.6681.8280.261.912.82
New MexicoMWC3.004.6680.9579.771.862.77
Texas Pan AmericanGWC2.822.0920.0025.56-1.69-1.02
Chicago St.GWC2.762.065.0010.31-2.48-1.64
ColoradoP122.762.0665.0061.260.830.46
DrakeMVC2.752.0250.0048.310.00-0.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.691.9921.0520.70-1.56-1.17
ArmyPat2.691.9642.8643.26-0.38-0.26
Eastern MichiganMAC2.691.9642.8639.71-0.38-0.40
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.631.9218.1825.22-1.67-0.95
GonzagaWCC2.631.9280.9580.831.631.19
Virginia Military InstBSth2.631.9247.3745.92-0.14-0.16
WagnerNEC2.631.9281.8284.021.671.31
Wright St.Horz2.631.9243.4842.01-0.34-0.31
Southern CaliforniaP120.300.3025.0025.13-0.15-0.15
Utah ValleyGWC0.250.2854.5557.690.020.04
Idaho St.BSky0.250.2733.3333.88-0.08-0.09
Houston BaptistGWC0.190.2125.0028.52-0.09-0.09
North DakotaGWC0.190.2133.3341.31-0.06-0.04
DenverSB0.190.2170.8372.230.080.09
CaliforniaP120.180.2075.0074.610.090.10
Wichita St.MVC0.240.2082.6180.420.160.12
Santa ClaraWCC0.240.2028.5726.30-0.10-0.09
Texas SouthernSWAC0.240.2031.8242.13-0.09-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.180.2069.5768.900.070.07
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.190.1733.3338.38-0.06-0.04
Fresno St.WAC0.190.1739.1344.52-0.04-0.02
ArizonaP120.190.1766.6768.550.060.06
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.180.1747.8347.87-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.180.178.3310.86-0.15-0.13
CreightonMVC0.240.1787.5085.410.180.12
Southern MethodistCUSA0.120.1738.1037.86-0.03-0.04
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.120.1635.0039.38-0.04-0.04
Texas El PasoCUSA0.180.1643.4843.31-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.130.1471.4373.350.050.06
Northern ColoradoBSky0.130.1430.0031.54-0.05-0.05
StanfordP120.130.1469.5768.290.050.05
UtahP120.130.1418.1815.01-0.08-0.10
IowaB100.180.1454.1749.440.02-0.00
LehighPat0.180.1473.9174.910.090.07
Arizona St.P120.120.1330.4331.43-0.05-0.05
BradleyMVC0.120.1324.0024.86-0.06-0.07
Indiana St.MVC0.180.1356.5254.220.020.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1368.1869.680.050.05
Northern IowaMVC0.180.1362.5061.500.040.03
PortlandWCC0.180.1321.7421.70-0.10-0.08
San DiegoWCC0.120.1333.3333.82-0.04-0.04
ToledoMAC0.190.1338.1040.81-0.04-0.02
VirginiaACC0.190.1381.8276.800.120.07
Washington St.P120.180.1350.0048.170.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.1325.0037.58-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.135.267.30-0.11-0.11
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.120.1355.5658.010.010.02
EvansvilleMVC0.120.1345.4544.02-0.01-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.170.1354.1757.200.010.02
IllinoisB100.180.1372.7364.430.080.04
Western MichiganMAC0.180.1340.9142.96-0.03-0.02
GramblingSWAC0.120.1315.0015.73-0.08-0.09
PresbyterianBSth0.130.1140.9143.66-0.02-0.01
WinthropBSth0.190.1134.7834.61-0.06-0.03
RadfordBSth0.190.118.7013.10-0.16-0.08
Ohio St.B100.180.1086.9685.460.140.07
Longwoodind0.130.1030.0027.84-0.05-0.05
AmericanPat0.130.1065.2263.790.040.03
Louisiana TechWAC0.130.1042.8643.45-0.02-0.01
NavyPat0.130.109.5213.19-0.10-0.08
Oregon St.P120.130.1063.6463.160.030.03
Portland St.BSky0.130.1042.8645.80-0.02-0.01
LamarSlnd0.130.1061.9067.230.030.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.120.1021.0522.46-0.07-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.190.1035.2939.85-0.06-0.02
LafayettePat0.120.1043.4842.95-0.02-0.01
DePaulBE0.180.1050.0042.830.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.120.1030.4329.50-0.05-0.04
IdahoWAC0.120.1047.6251.08-0.010.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.120.1045.4545.70-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.120.1062.5062.060.030.02
RiceCUSA0.130.1047.6246.46-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.1034.7832.06-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.170.1056.5255.950.020.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.120.1034.7838.42-0.04-0.02
MississippiSEC0.120.1063.6456.710.030.01
Ball St.MAC0.120.1055.0057.410.010.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.170.1019.0521.29-0.11-0.06
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.060.1034.7835.20-0.02-0.03
CincinnatiBE0.170.1069.5765.470.070.03
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1045.4540.70-0.01-0.02
ButlerHorz0.170.1050.0050.800.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.1027.7829.87-0.05-0.04
HawaiiWAC0.120.1057.1453.120.020.01
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1028.5734.20-0.05-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.170.1030.0030.06-0.07-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.0919.0525.52-0.07-0.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0755.0060.330.010.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0772.2271.970.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0734.7838.77-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.070.0727.2727.21-0.03-0.03
NC AshevilleBSth0.130.0768.1867.640.050.03
CampbellBSth0.130.0756.0055.650.020.01
The CitadelSC0.130.079.5211.44-0.10-0.06
South Carolina UpstateASun0.130.0754.5556.090.010.01
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.130.0776.1975.940.070.04
PittsburghBE0.120.0760.8758.160.030.01
TulaneCUSA0.130.0761.9058.590.030.01
BaylorB120.060.0790.9183.850.050.05
BucknellPat0.120.0773.9175.000.060.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.0742.1149.81-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.060.0786.3683.090.050.05
ElonSC0.060.0750.0047.590.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.060.0740.9142.05-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0718.1822.22-0.04-0.04
Louisiana St.SEC0.060.0759.0957.280.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0768.0069.070.020.03
MontanaBSky0.060.0770.0073.280.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.0733.3337.25-0.04-0.02
OregonP120.060.0769.5764.530.020.02
South DakotaSum0.060.0726.3228.83-0.03-0.03
Southern MississippiCUSA0.060.0785.7182.180.040.04
Southern UtahSum0.060.0745.4544.30-0.01-0.01
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.060.0757.1460.750.010.01
UC DavisBW0.060.070.005.37-0.06-0.06
UC IrvineBW0.060.0735.0035.26-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.060.0742.8639.66-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.0738.8943.93-0.03-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0730.4326.44-0.02-0.03
Brigham YoungWCC0.060.0775.0076.000.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.078.7012.13-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0750.0048.900.00-0.00
HoustonCUSA0.060.0747.6244.63-0.00-0.01
Long IslandNEC0.110.0770.8371.050.050.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0759.0957.760.010.01
MonmouthNEC0.060.0728.0028.91-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.060.0745.0041.76-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0726.0928.60-0.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.060.0752.3846.680.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.120.0731.8233.83-0.04-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0756.5253.770.010.01
St. LouisA100.060.0777.2777.670.030.04
St. Mary'sWCC0.060.0790.9187.740.050.05
Texas TechB120.060.0731.8225.98-0.02-0.03
TulsaCUSA0.060.0760.8759.050.010.01
Michigan St.B100.120.0776.1972.910.060.03
Oral RobertsSum0.120.0680.7780.750.070.04
Cal PolyBW0.060.0650.0056.760.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0617.3919.81-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0681.8280.430.030.04
DetroitHorz0.050.0647.8349.03-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.068.708.99-0.05-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.110.0630.0034.15-0.05-0.02
NevadaWAC0.060.0680.9576.420.040.03
North CarolinaACC0.060.0686.9683.160.040.04
OhioMAC0.050.0681.8277.200.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.110.0665.2263.610.030.02
WisconsinB100.060.0675.0073.970.030.03
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0656.5257.720.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0650.0051.530.000.00
AkronMAC0.120.0668.1867.910.040.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.0617.6527.10-0.07-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0630.0037.30-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0616.6723.02-0.04-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0650.0058.160.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0635.0040.78-0.02-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0645.0046.13-0.01-0.00
High PointBSth0.070.0431.8232.75-0.02-0.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.070.0413.6416.35-0.05-0.02
Old DominionCAA0.070.0460.0058.290.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0412.5013.44-0.00-0.03
NorthwesternB100.060.0461.9055.140.010.00
St. John'sBE0.060.0443.4840.28-0.01-0.01
Texas St.Slnd0.060.0422.2227.62-0.03-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0338.1042.78-0.02-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.060.030.004.02-0.06-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.060.0314.2917.17-0.04-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0319.0522.37-0.04-0.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0334.7832.08-0.02-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0345.4541.20-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0336.3638.48-0.00-0.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.000.0335.0035.31-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.070.0372.7368.280.030.01
La SalleA100.060.0370.8368.820.020.01
MaristMAAC0.060.0334.7833.43-0.02-0.01
MarylandACC0.060.0359.0950.820.010.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0352.3857.860.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0326.3229.71-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.060.0354.5556.790.010.00
WashingtonP120.060.0369.5766.540.020.01
YaleIvy0.060.0372.2263.190.030.01
ConnecticutBE0.060.0368.1863.990.020.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0340.9144.03-0.01-0.00
HofstraCAA0.060.0332.0035.39-0.02-0.01
Iowa St.B120.060.0373.9168.430.030.01
Notre DameBE0.060.0365.2262.650.020.01
PennsylvaniaIvy0.060.0354.5556.840.010.00
PrincetonIvy0.060.0347.3752.87-0.000.00
QuinnipiacNEC0.060.0356.5257.150.010.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0368.0070.030.020.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0344.0045.89-0.01-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0321.7422.76-0.03-0.02
XavierA100.060.0365.2263.740.020.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0343.4844.25-0.01-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0347.6248.82-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.060.0368.4266.450.020.01
CharlotteA100.050.0350.0049.450.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0382.6177.630.040.02
IUPUISum0.060.0334.7835.50-0.02-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0371.4369.050.000.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0345.8346.68-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.060.0365.2260.580.020.01
SyracuseBE0.060.0395.8392.010.050.03
Virginia TechACC0.060.0356.5255.200.010.00
AuburnSEC0.060.0356.5248.810.01-0.00
Florida InternationalSB0.060.0333.3337.16-0.02-0.01
MichiganB100.060.0372.7366.810.030.01