Air Force

Conference:	MWC
Expected RPI:	174.7
Current RPI:	171
Expected SOS:	75
Current SOS:	112
Current Record:	9-10
Expected Record:	11-15
Current Conf Record:	1-6
Expected Conf Record:	3-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.12%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-0
Current OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC RPI:	195
Expected OOC SOS:	297

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-11	101.0	0.02%
14-12	118.0	0.96%
13-13	135.2	6.52%
12-14	154.8	22.14%
11-15	174.7	36.08%
10-16	193.0	26.48%
9-17	209.6	7.79%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Air Force.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Army (293.1)	Pat	H	87-71	W	100%	0.0
11-12	Virginia Military Inst (264.1)	BSth	H	75-65	W	100%	0.0
11-23	Colorado (75.2)	P12	H	73-76	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Drake (135.2)	MVC	A	62-60	L	0%	0.0
12-7	Wright St. (216.3)	Horz	H	55-34	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Arkansas Pine Bluff (327.1)	SWAC	H	63-51	W	100%	0.0
12-17	Maryland Eastern Shore (319.1)	MEAC	H	64-60	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Gonzaga (27.9)	WCC	A	70-60	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Wagner (83.5)	NEC	N	61-72	L	0%	0.0
12-30	Eastern Michigan (246.9)	MAC	N	37-42	W	100%	0.0
1-6	Chicago St. (335.8)	GWC	H	68-54	W	100%	0.0
1-9	Texas Pan American (309.3)	GWC	H	67-50	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Boise St. (176.5)	MWC	A	59-74	W	100%	0.0
1-18	Wyoming (55.5)	MWC	H	53-64	L	0%	0.0
1-21	San Diego St. (26.6)	MWC	A	57-44	L	0%	0.0
1-25	Texas Christian (123.7)	MWC	A	59-56	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Nevada Las Vegas (9.6)	MWC	H	63-65	L	0%	0.0
1-31	New Mexico (30.8)	MWC	H	42-81	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Colorado St. (33.3)	MWC	A	67-49	L	0%	0.0
2-11	Boise St. (176.5)	MWC	H	0-0		49%	-0.3
2-15	Wyoming (55.5)	MWC	A	0-0		12%	-12.9
2-18	San Diego St. (26.6)	MWC	H	0-0		30%	-5.9
2-22	Texas Christian (123.7)	MWC	H	0-0		58%	2.3
2-25	Nevada Las Vegas (9.6)	MWC	A	0-0		4%	-19.0
2-29	New Mexico (30.8)	MWC	A	0-0		4%	-19.2
3-3	Colorado St. (33.3)	MWC	H	0-0		39%	-3.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Air Force's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Air Force's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Air Force.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Air Force	MWC	26.16	26.35	40.74	35.51	-4.84	-7.64
Wyoming	MWC	3.13	4.72	75.00	68.94	1.56	1.79
Texas Christian	MWC	3.06	4.69	55.00	47.97	0.31	-0.19
Colorado St.	MWC	3.06	4.69	65.00	59.29	0.92	0.87
San Diego St.	MWC	3.06	4.69	85.00	77.50	2.14	2.58
Boise St.	MWC	3.06	4.68	45.00	42.33	-0.31	-0.72
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	3.00	4.66	81.82	80.26	1.91	2.82
New Mexico	MWC	3.00	4.66	80.95	79.77	1.86	2.77
Texas Pan American	GWC	2.82	2.09	20.00	25.56	-1.69	-1.02
Chicago St.	GWC	2.76	2.06	5.00	10.31	-2.48	-1.64
Colorado	P12	2.76	2.06	65.00	61.26	0.83	0.46
Drake	MVC	2.75	2.02	50.00	48.31	0.00	-0.07
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	2.69	1.99	21.05	20.70	-1.56	-1.17
Army	Pat	2.69	1.96	42.86	43.26	-0.38	-0.26
Eastern Michigan	MAC	2.69	1.96	42.86	39.71	-0.38	-0.40
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	2.63	1.92	18.18	25.22	-1.67	-0.95
Gonzaga	WCC	2.63	1.92	80.95	80.83	1.63	1.19
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	2.63	1.92	47.37	45.92	-0.14	-0.16
Wagner	NEC	2.63	1.92	81.82	84.02	1.67	1.31
Wright St.	Horz	2.63	1.92	43.48	42.01	-0.34	-0.31
Southern California	P12	0.30	0.30	25.00	25.13	-0.15	-0.15
Utah Valley	GWC	0.25	0.28	54.55	57.69	0.02	0.04
Idaho St.	BSky	0.25	0.27	33.33	33.88	-0.08	-0.09
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.19	0.21	25.00	28.52	-0.09	-0.09
North Dakota	GWC	0.19	0.21	33.33	41.31	-0.06	-0.04
Denver	SB	0.19	0.21	70.83	72.23	0.08	0.09
California	P12	0.18	0.20	75.00	74.61	0.09	0.10
Wichita St.	MVC	0.24	0.20	82.61	80.42	0.16	0.12
Santa Clara	WCC	0.24	0.20	28.57	26.30	-0.10	-0.09
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.24	0.20	31.82	42.13	-0.09	-0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.18	0.20	69.57	68.90	0.07	0.07
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.19	0.17	33.33	38.38	-0.06	-0.04
Fresno St.	WAC	0.19	0.17	39.13	44.52	-0.04	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.19	0.17	66.67	68.55	0.06	0.06
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.18	0.17	47.83	47.87	-0.01	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.18	0.17	8.33	10.86	-0.15	-0.13
Creighton	MVC	0.24	0.17	87.50	85.41	0.18	0.12
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.12	0.17	38.10	37.86	-0.03	-0.04
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.12	0.16	35.00	39.38	-0.04	-0.04
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.18	0.16	43.48	43.31	-0.02	-0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.13	0.14	71.43	73.35	0.05	0.06
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.13	0.14	30.00	31.54	-0.05	-0.05
Stanford	P12	0.13	0.14	69.57	68.29	0.05	0.05
Utah	P12	0.13	0.14	18.18	15.01	-0.08	-0.10
Iowa	B10	0.18	0.14	54.17	49.44	0.02	-0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.18	0.14	73.91	74.91	0.09	0.07
Arizona St.	P12	0.12	0.13	30.43	31.43	-0.05	-0.05
Bradley	MVC	0.12	0.13	24.00	24.86	-0.06	-0.07
Indiana St.	MVC	0.18	0.13	56.52	54.22	0.02	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	68.18	69.68	0.05	0.05
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.18	0.13	62.50	61.50	0.04	0.03
Portland	WCC	0.18	0.13	21.74	21.70	-0.10	-0.08
San Diego	WCC	0.12	0.13	33.33	33.82	-0.04	-0.04
Toledo	MAC	0.19	0.13	38.10	40.81	-0.04	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.19	0.13	81.82	76.80	0.12	0.07
Washington St.	P12	0.18	0.13	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.13	25.00	37.58	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.12	0.13	5.26	7.30	-0.11	-0.11
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.12	0.13	55.56	58.01	0.01	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.12	0.13	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.17	0.13	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.18	0.13	72.73	64.43	0.08	0.04
Western Michigan	MAC	0.18	0.13	40.91	42.96	-0.03	-0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.12	0.13	15.00	15.73	-0.08	-0.09
Presbyterian	BSth	0.13	0.11	40.91	43.66	-0.02	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.19	0.11	34.78	34.61	-0.06	-0.03
Radford	BSth	0.19	0.11	8.70	13.10	-0.16	-0.08
Ohio St.	B10	0.18	0.10	86.96	85.46	0.14	0.07
Longwood	ind	0.13	0.10	30.00	27.84	-0.05	-0.05
American	Pat	0.13	0.10	65.22	63.79	0.04	0.03
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.13	0.10	42.86	43.45	-0.02	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.13	0.10	9.52	13.19	-0.10	-0.08
Oregon St.	P12	0.13	0.10	63.64	63.16	0.03	0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.13	0.10	42.86	45.80	-0.02	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.13	0.10	61.90	67.23	0.03	0.04
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.12	0.10	21.05	22.46	-0.07	-0.06
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.19	0.10	35.29	39.85	-0.06	-0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.12	0.10	43.48	42.95	-0.02	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.18	0.10	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.12	0.10	30.43	29.50	-0.05	-0.04
Idaho	WAC	0.12	0.10	47.62	51.08	-0.01	0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.12	0.10	45.45	45.70	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.12	0.10	62.50	62.06	0.03	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.13	0.10	47.62	46.46	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.12	0.10	34.78	32.06	-0.04	-0.04
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.17	0.10	56.52	55.95	0.02	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.12	0.10	34.78	38.42	-0.04	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.12	0.10	63.64	56.71	0.03	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.12	0.10	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.17	0.10	19.05	21.29	-0.11	-0.06
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.10	34.78	35.20	-0.02	-0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.17	0.10	69.57	65.47	0.07	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.12	0.10	45.45	40.70	-0.01	-0.02
Butler	Horz	0.17	0.10	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.11	0.10	27.78	29.87	-0.05	-0.04
Hawaii	WAC	0.12	0.10	57.14	53.12	0.02	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.10	28.57	34.20	-0.05	-0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.17	0.10	30.00	30.06	-0.07	-0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.11	0.09	19.05	25.52	-0.07	-0.05
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.07	0.07	55.00	60.33	0.01	0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.07	0.07	72.22	71.97	0.03	0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.07	0.07	34.78	38.77	-0.02	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.07	0.07	27.27	27.21	-0.03	-0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.13	0.07	68.18	67.64	0.05	0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.13	0.07	56.00	55.65	0.02	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.13	0.07	9.52	11.44	-0.10	-0.06
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.13	0.07	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.13	0.07	76.19	75.94	0.07	0.04
Pittsburgh	BE	0.12	0.07	60.87	58.16	0.03	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.13	0.07	61.90	58.59	0.03	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.06	0.07	90.91	83.85	0.05	0.05
Bucknell	Pat	0.12	0.07	73.91	75.00	0.06	0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.00	0.07	42.11	49.81	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.07	86.36	83.09	0.05	0.05
Elon	SC	0.06	0.07	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.06	0.07	40.91	42.05	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.07	0.07	18.18	22.22	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.07	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.07	68.00	69.07	0.02	0.03
Montana	BSky	0.06	0.07	70.00	73.28	0.03	0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.13	0.07	33.33	37.25	-0.04	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.07	69.57	64.53	0.02	0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.07	26.32	28.83	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.06	0.07	85.71	82.18	0.04	0.04
Southern Utah	Sum	0.06	0.07	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.01
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.06	0.07	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.07	0.00	5.37	-0.06	-0.06
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.07	35.00	35.26	-0.02	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.07	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.12	0.07	38.89	43.93	-0.03	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.06	0.07	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.06	0.07	75.00	76.00	0.03	0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.07	8.70	12.13	-0.05	-0.05
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.07	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.07	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.11	0.07	70.83	71.05	0.05	0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.07	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.06	0.07	28.00	28.91	-0.03	-0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.07	45.00	41.76	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.00	0.07	26.09	28.60	-0.00	-0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.07	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.12	0.07	31.82	33.83	-0.04	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.07	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.06	0.07	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.04
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.07	90.91	87.74	0.05	0.05
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.07	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.06	0.07	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.12	0.07	76.19	72.91	0.06	0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.12	0.06	80.77	80.75	0.07	0.04
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.06	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	17.39	19.81	-0.04	-0.04
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.06	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.04
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.06	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.06	0.06	8.70	8.99	-0.05	-0.05
Miami OH	MAC	0.11	0.06	30.00	34.15	-0.05	-0.02
Nevada	WAC	0.06	0.06	80.95	76.42	0.04	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	86.96	83.16	0.04	0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.06	81.82	77.20	0.03	0.03
Valparaiso	Horz	0.11	0.06	65.22	63.61	0.03	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	75.00	73.97	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.06	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.06	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.12	0.06	68.18	67.91	0.04	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.11	0.06	17.65	27.10	-0.07	-0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	30.00	37.30	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	16.67	23.02	-0.04	-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.00
High Point	BSth	0.07	0.04	31.82	32.75	-0.02	-0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.07	0.04	13.64	16.35	-0.05	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.07	0.04	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.00	0.04	12.50	13.44	-0.00	-0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.06	0.04	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.04	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.06	0.04	22.22	27.62	-0.03	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.07	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.02	-0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.06	0.03	0.00	4.02	-0.06	-0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.03	14.29	17.17	-0.04	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.07	0.03	19.05	22.37	-0.04	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.07	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.00	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.00	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.00	0.03	35.00	35.31	-0.00	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.07	0.03	72.73	68.28	0.03	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.06	0.03	70.83	68.82	0.02	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.06	0.03	34.78	33.43	-0.02	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.06	0.03	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.00	0.03	26.32	29.71	-0.00	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.03	54.55	56.79	0.01	0.00
Washington	P12	0.06	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.03	72.22	63.19	0.03	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.06	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.03	40.91	44.03	-0.01	-0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.03	73.91	68.43	0.03	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.02	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.06	0.03	54.55	56.84	0.01	0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.03	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.06	0.03	56.52	57.15	0.01	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.03	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.06	0.03	44.00	45.89	-0.01	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.06	0.03	21.74	22.76	-0.03	-0.02
Xavier	A10	0.06	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.03	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.03	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.03	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.03	82.61	77.63	0.04	0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.06	0.03	34.78	35.50	-0.02	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.00	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.00	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.03	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.06	0.03	65.22	60.58	0.02	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.06	0.03	95.83	92.01	0.05	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.03	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.03	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.06	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.02	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.03	0.01