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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Air Force

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:250.0
Current RPI:250
Expected SOS:114
Current SOS:114
Current Record:10-21
Expected Record:10-21
Current Conf Record:5-15
Expected Conf Record:5-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-10
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-4
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:254
Expected OOC SOS:219



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-21250.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Air Force.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Jacksonville (291.0)ASunH86-68W100%0.0
11-20Florida A&M (349.0)MEACH87-62W100%0.0
11-22Stetson (328.0)ASunH85-72W100%0.0
11-25Akron (58.0)MACN75-84L0%0.0
11-26East Carolina (213.0)AmerN63-70L0%0.0
11-30New Mexico St. (59.0)WACA78-70L0%0.0
12-3Missouri St. (210.0)MVCH83-70W100%0.0
12-7Army (266.0)PatA79-71L0%0.0
12-10Denver (207.0)SumH65-77L0%0.0
12-19Colorado (99.0)P12H68-75L0%0.0
12-22UC Davis (166.0)BWH77-67W100%0.0
12-28Wyoming (152.0)MWCA84-72L0%0.0
12-31Utah St. (181.0)MWCH78-73W100%0.0
1-7Colorado St. (66.0)MWCA85-58L0%0.0
1-11Fresno St. (76.0)MWCH81-72W100%0.0
1-14San Jose St. (191.0)MWCH85-89L0%0.0
1-18Nevada (29.0)MWCA83-76L0%0.0
1-21UNLV (242.0)MWCA87-85L0%0.0
1-24San Diego St. (98.0)MWCH60-57W100%0.0
2-1Fresno St. (76.0)MWCA73-64L0%0.0
2-4Wyoming (152.0)MWCH74-83L0%0.0
2-8New Mexico (86.0)MWCH67-74L0%0.0
2-11Boise St. (72.0)MWCA76-66L0%0.0
2-15Nevada (29.0)MWCH59-78L0%0.0
2-18San Jose St. (191.0)MWCA83-78L0%0.0
2-22UNLV (242.0)MWCH81-58W100%0.0
2-25Utah St. (181.0)MWCA89-58L0%0.0
3-1San Diego St. (98.0)MWCA51-38L0%0.0
3-4Boise St. (72.0)MWCH70-98L0%0.0
3-8Wyoming (152.0)MWCN68-83W100%0.0
3-9Colorado St. (66.0)MWCN81-55L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Air Force's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Air Force's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Air Force.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Air ForceMWC26.4026.4024.8124.81-13.30-13.30
WyomingMWC5.665.6651.8551.850.210.21
Colorado St.MWC4.284.2863.3363.331.141.14
NevadaMWC4.214.2181.2581.252.632.63
San Diego St.MWC4.204.2056.6756.670.560.56
Utah St.MWC4.164.1642.8642.86-0.59-0.59
San Jose St.MWC4.164.1638.4638.46-0.96-0.96
Fresno St.MWC4.144.1460.7160.710.890.89
UNLVMWC4.124.1233.3333.33-1.37-1.37
Boise St.MWC4.124.1259.2659.260.760.76
New MexicoMWC2.662.6653.3353.330.180.18
DenverSum1.781.7851.7251.720.060.06
JacksonvilleASun1.721.7248.1548.15-0.06-0.06
StetsonASun1.721.7228.5728.57-0.74-0.74
New Mexico St.WAC1.721.7282.7682.761.121.12
Florida A&MMEAC1.691.6918.5218.52-1.07-1.07
East CarolinaAmer1.671.6743.7543.75-0.21-0.21
ColoradoP121.661.6654.8454.840.160.16
AkronMAC1.611.6175.0075.000.810.81
ArmyPat1.611.6136.6736.67-0.43-0.43
Missouri St.MVC1.611.6151.6151.610.050.05
UC DavisBW1.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
OregonP120.240.2484.8584.850.160.16
UC IrvineBW0.230.2357.5857.580.030.03
MontanaBSky0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
CaliforniaP120.210.2163.6463.640.060.06
PacificWCC0.180.1831.2531.25-0.07-0.07
NJITASun0.170.1731.0331.03-0.06-0.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.160.1644.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.150.1512.9012.90-0.11-0.11
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1476.6776.670.080.08
Idaho St.BSky0.140.1413.3313.33-0.10-0.10
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.130.1367.8667.860.050.05
South AlabamaSB0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.130.1335.7135.71-0.04-0.04
USCP120.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
DePaulBE0.130.1328.1228.12-0.06-0.06
Cal PolyBW0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
DrakeMVC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.08-0.08
SMUAmer0.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
Long Beach St.BW0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.130.1322.2222.22-0.07-0.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
LipscombASun0.110.1156.6756.670.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.110.1112.9012.90-0.08-0.08
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.110.1110.3410.34-0.08-0.08
Weber St.BSky0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.110.1187.5087.500.080.08
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
SeattleWAC0.100.1037.0437.04-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.1018.5218.52-0.06-0.06
WashingtonP120.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
IonaMAAC0.090.0964.7164.710.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
PortlandWCC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.083.333.33-0.08-0.08
Fort WayneSum0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
CornellIvy0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
UMKCWAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
UTEPCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
BucknellPat0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
ArizonaP120.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.070.0796.9796.970.070.07
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
TempleAmer0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
South DakotaSum0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
UtahP120.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MercerSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0329.4129.41-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
TexasB120.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
CreightonBE0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
VirginiaACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01