live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Air Force

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:109.1
Current RPI:176
Expected SOS:148
Current SOS:266
Current Record:4-3
Expected Record:17-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC RPI:154
Expected OOC SOS:283



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-424.50.04%
22-531.00.32%
21-639.31.51%
20-752.14.47%
19-866.510.24%
18-983.216.84%
17-10100.620.33%
16-11119.118.97%
15-12139.014.02%
14-13159.28.02%
13-14181.33.73%
12-15204.31.15%
11-16225.10.28%
10-17244.80.06%
9-18270.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Air Force.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Army (144.8)PatA84-78L0%0.0
11-15The Citadel (315.9)SCN68-55W100%0.0
11-25Colorado (66.2)P12A68-53L0%0.0
11-30Texas Tech (87.7)B12A63-62L0%0.0
12-3Grambling St. (349.5)SWACH59-34W100%0.0
12-8Nebraska Omaha (196.9)SumH77-61W100%0.0
12-13Arkansas Pine Bluff (297.0)SWACH80-47W100%0.0
12-20UC Davis (161.6)BWH0-078%9.1
12-22Jacksonville St. (264.1)OVCH0-094%18.2
12-31San Diego St. (35.0)MWCA0-023%-8.9
1-3Nevada (283.3)MWCA0-070%6.2
1-7San Jose St. (327.7)MWCH0-098%23.2
1-10Colorado St. (32.3)MWCH0-054%1.3
1-14New Mexico (109.7)MWCA0-040%-3.1
1-17Utah St. (176.2)MWCA0-054%1.2
1-20San Diego St. (35.0)MWCH0-050%-0.1
1-24Boise St. (62.9)MWCH0-061%3.2
1-28San Jose St. (327.7)MWCA0-089%14.5
1-31UNLV (134.4)MWCA0-053%1.0
2-4New Mexico (109.7)MWCH0-068%5.6
2-7Wyoming (72.2)MWCH0-056%1.9
2-11Boise St. (62.9)MWCA0-032%-5.5
2-14UNLV (134.4)MWCH0-080%9.8
2-21Colorado St. (32.3)MWCA0-026%-7.4
2-25Nevada (283.3)MWCH0-090%14.9
2-28Utah St. (176.2)MWCH0-080%9.9
3-4Fresno St. (258.3)MWCA0-070%6.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Air Force's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Air Force's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Air Force.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Air ForceMWC28.0526.3860.8762.196.106.43
Colorado St.MWC0.404.63100.0079.360.402.72
Utah St.MWC0.004.6355.5652.300.000.21
UNLVMWC0.004.6375.0051.990.000.18
San Jose St.MWC0.004.630.007.93-0.00-3.89
NevadaMWC0.404.6211.1125.39-0.31-2.27
Boise St.MWC0.004.6275.0069.830.001.83
San Diego St.MWC0.004.6070.0073.460.002.16
New MexicoMWC0.004.5970.0059.500.000.87
Fresno St.MWC0.402.9030.0029.78-0.16-1.17
WyomingMWC0.402.9077.7874.430.221.42
UC DavisBW0.001.9885.7162.520.000.50
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC7.141.9522.2239.51-3.97-0.41
ColoradoP127.141.9562.5056.691.790.26
Nebraska OmahaSum7.141.9250.0057.820.000.30
Texas TechB127.141.9187.5054.395.360.17
Grambling St.SWAC7.141.910.009.24-7.14-1.56
ArmyPat7.141.8575.0067.633.570.65
Jacksonville St.OVC0.001.8555.5639.760.00-0.38
The CitadelSC7.141.8520.0032.08-4.29-0.66
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.2636.3638.88-0.00-0.06
WashingtonP120.510.23100.0071.820.510.10
Northern ColoradoBSky0.790.2328.5757.26-0.340.03
USCP120.400.2260.0036.120.08-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.2236.3664.92-0.000.06
Long Beach St.BW0.000.2040.0050.07-0.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.19100.0080.590.000.12
UtahP120.000.1977.7879.480.000.11
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.360.1910.0030.45-0.29-0.07
Cal PolyBW0.000.1742.8638.75-0.00-0.04
Washington St.P120.000.1740.0028.86-0.00-0.07
CaliforniaP120.000.1690.0066.690.000.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.160.0031.74-0.00-0.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1633.3362.92-0.000.04
SouthernSWAC0.000.160.0033.84-0.00-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.400.160.0039.41-0.40-0.03
DenverSum0.000.1650.0054.230.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.1650.0038.180.00-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.000.1616.6727.56-0.00-0.07
VMISC0.990.1433.3339.22-0.33-0.03
SeattleWAC0.400.1337.5046.50-0.10-0.01
MercerSC0.000.1337.5042.45-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.130.0028.26-0.00-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1318.1844.62-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.1310.0018.01-0.00-0.08
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1311.1144.62-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1320.0028.20-0.00-0.06
UC RiversideBW0.000.1342.8643.10-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.1337.5064.43-0.000.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1350.0040.880.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1362.5054.970.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.1328.5742.17-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.1360.0053.820.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.1325.0052.09-0.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.1366.6748.410.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.1354.5557.300.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.1327.2738.97-0.00-0.03
BYUWCC0.000.1366.6767.300.000.04
Idaho St.BSky0.000.1314.2933.32-0.00-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1318.1846.16-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.1275.0057.570.000.02
KansasB120.000.1288.8969.390.000.05
FurmanSC0.000.1125.0029.59-0.00-0.04
NavyPat0.600.1020.0021.58-0.36-0.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1033.3338.99-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.1037.5046.78-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.1037.5049.83-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.360.1066.6754.830.120.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1033.3340.31-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.1025.0038.92-0.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.1075.0058.430.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.510.1028.5736.95-0.22-0.03
TCUB120.000.10100.0066.180.000.03
Loyola MDPat0.400.1033.3327.70-0.13-0.04
HoustonAmer0.360.1071.4348.860.15-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.400.090.0017.51-0.40-0.06
Kansas St.B120.400.0960.0037.220.08-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.400.0937.5040.20-0.10-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.360.0980.0069.620.210.04
ChattanoogaSC0.600.0744.4451.58-0.070.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0771.4363.890.000.02
SamfordSC0.000.0733.3331.58-0.00-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0722.2237.75-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0720.0041.46-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0777.7876.240.000.04
Oregon St.P120.510.0777.7855.460.280.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0716.6719.68-0.00-0.04
AmericanPat0.000.0760.0065.400.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0733.3342.19-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0740.0036.29-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0766.6745.670.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0720.0043.08-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0757.1453.130.000.00
IPFWSum0.000.0757.1456.900.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0720.0026.33-0.00-0.03
LafayettePat0.000.0775.0069.820.000.03
LehighPat0.000.0737.5047.71-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0725.0023.43-0.00-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0781.8264.110.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0755.5656.400.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0744.4445.59-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0727.2737.85-0.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0771.4357.100.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0790.0067.260.000.02
UCLAP120.000.0772.7357.280.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0737.5031.95-0.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0762.5054.980.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0790.9188.390.000.05
Michigan St.B100.360.0772.7373.150.160.03
MaristMAAC0.400.0610.0018.61-0.32-0.04
AuburnSEC0.790.0644.4436.35-0.09-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0660.0062.970.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8655.64-0.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0666.6764.310.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0650.0039.340.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0622.2228.69-0.00-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0016.85-0.00-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0049.620.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3348.89-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.000.0690.0073.870.000.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0666.6742.100.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0642.8649.98-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0677.7869.190.000.02
George MasonA100.000.0625.0025.93-0.00-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.000.0662.5071.290.000.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0636.3644.53-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0688.8963.800.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3345.28-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0677.7867.290.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0688.8963.660.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0666.6752.340.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0074.000.000.03
TempleAmer0.000.0663.6455.600.000.01
TexasB120.000.0690.0081.860.000.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0677.7865.390.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0666.6772.670.000.03
West VirginiaB120.000.0690.0066.940.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0420.0034.08-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.600.0450.0044.900.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.600.0450.0037.510.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.510.0466.6766.340.170.01
Notre DameACC0.510.0490.9171.890.420.02
PurdueB100.510.0472.7363.730.230.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0455.5638.130.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.400.030.0011.87-0.40-0.03
BryantNEC0.400.0328.5747.24-0.17-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0011.40-0.00-0.03
DelawareCAA0.400.030.007.39-0.40-0.03
DePaulBE0.000.0360.0034.110.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.400.0325.0037.13-0.20-0.01
DukeACC0.400.03100.0087.140.400.02
GeorgiaSEC0.400.0362.5059.510.100.01
LipscombASun0.400.0325.0042.64-0.20-0.00
MaineAE0.000.0311.1121.08-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.400.0355.5647.870.04-0.00
NebraskaB100.400.0366.6743.780.13-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0325.0032.77-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0366.6758.060.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.400.0350.0053.850.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.400.0322.2240.44-0.22-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0337.5041.20-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.400.0322.2241.92-0.22-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0322.2230.99-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3349.71-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.0344.4447.53-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0337.5038.60-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0377.7871.110.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0012.36-0.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0310.0018.58-0.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0085.330.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0355.5659.990.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0355.5661.790.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0340.0050.78-0.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1828.02-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0023.71-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0370.0071.330.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0344.4447.53-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.0310.0027.42-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0362.5066.700.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0314.2945.19-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0328.5747.31-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4359.920.000.01
LSUSEC0.400.0380.0064.110.240.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.79-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.400.030.0037.73-0.40-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.400.0320.0029.81-0.24-0.01
AkronMAC0.360.0360.0056.560.070.00
Central MichiganMAC0.360.0385.7170.350.260.01
High PointBSth0.360.0362.5056.410.090.00
OhioMAC0.360.0342.8638.11-0.05-0.01