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Through games of Feb 26, 2017.


Air Force

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:254.8
Current RPI:257
Expected SOS:119
Current SOS:134
Current Record:9-18
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:4-12
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-4
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:267
Expected OOC SOS:232



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-18228.23.66%
10-19245.735.48%
9-20261.760.86%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Air Force.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Jacksonville (288.3)ASunH86-68W100%0.0
11-20Florida A&M (348.4)MEACH87-62W100%0.0
11-22Stetson (332.0)ASunH85-72W100%0.0
11-25Akron (53.3)MACN75-84L0%0.0
11-26East Carolina (228.3)AmerN63-70L0%0.0
11-30New Mexico St. (66.1)WACA78-70L0%0.0
12-3Missouri St. (217.0)MVCH83-70W100%0.0
12-7Army (263.2)PatA79-71L0%0.0
12-10Denver (204.2)SumH65-77L0%0.0
12-19Colorado (119.7)P12H68-75L0%0.0
12-22UC Davis (192.9)BWH77-67W100%0.0
12-28Wyoming (137.2)MWCA84-72L0%0.0
12-31Utah St. (174.2)MWCH78-73W100%0.0
1-7Colorado St. (72.3)MWCA85-58L0%0.0
1-11Fresno St. (96.7)MWCH81-72W100%0.0
1-14San Jose St. (167.1)MWCH85-89L0%0.0
1-18Nevada (40.2)MWCA83-76L0%0.0
1-21UNLV (241.1)MWCA87-85L0%0.0
1-24San Diego St. (102.1)MWCH60-57W100%0.0
2-1Fresno St. (96.7)MWCA73-64L0%0.0
2-4Wyoming (137.2)MWCH74-83L0%0.0
2-8New Mexico (87.6)MWCH67-74L0%0.0
2-11Boise St. (60.3)MWCA76-66L0%0.0
2-15Nevada (40.2)MWCH59-78L0%0.0
2-18San Jose St. (167.1)MWCA83-78L0%0.0
2-22UNLV (241.1)MWCH81-58W100%0.0
2-25Utah St. (174.2)MWCA89-58L0%0.0
3-1San Diego St. (102.1)MWCA0-011%-13.0
3-4Boise St. (60.3)MWCH0-031%-5.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Air Force's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Air Force's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Air Force.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Air ForceMWC26.3226.3524.7724.29-13.28-13.55
San Jose St.MWC4.454.3343.4841.88-0.58-0.70
NevadaMWC4.464.3277.7877.652.482.39
WyomingMWC4.484.3252.0051.840.180.16
UNLVMWC4.424.2933.3332.76-1.47-1.48
Boise St.MWC2.704.2864.0064.100.761.21
San Diego St.MWC2.744.2857.6957.580.420.65
Fresno St.MWC4.424.2858.3358.430.740.72
Utah St.MWC4.454.2744.0044.78-0.53-0.45
Colorado St.MWC2.752.7465.3864.330.850.79
New MexicoMWC2.842.7453.5753.290.200.18
DenverSum2.031.8853.5753.570.140.13
StetsonASun1.991.8529.6329.63-0.81-0.75
JacksonvilleASun1.991.8550.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC1.951.8120.0020.48-1.17-1.07
New Mexico St.WAC1.951.8180.0080.591.171.11
East CarolinaAmer1.921.7942.8641.15-0.27-0.32
ColoradoP121.891.7551.8552.220.070.08
AkronMAC1.851.7277.7877.431.030.95
ArmyPat1.851.7235.7135.71-0.53-0.49
Missouri St.MVC1.851.7251.7251.720.060.06
UC DavisBW1.851.7261.5460.470.430.36
OregonP120.270.2786.2186.570.190.19
UC IrvineBW0.240.2453.5755.070.020.02
CaliforniaP120.170.2167.8666.480.060.07
NJITASun0.200.1932.1432.14-0.07-0.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.210.1840.0041.50-0.04-0.03
MontanaBSky0.210.1848.2848.65-0.01-0.00
PacificWCC0.200.1830.0030.00-0.08-0.07
Arizona St.P120.170.1846.6745.71-0.01-0.02
Oregon St.P120.200.1713.7913.43-0.15-0.13
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.1619.2322.18-0.09-0.09
Kennesaw St.ASun0.170.1639.2939.29-0.04-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.140.1514.8115.93-0.10-0.10
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1540.0041.36-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.170.1521.4321.43-0.10-0.09
South AlabamaSB0.160.1542.3142.60-0.03-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.130.1550.0050.000.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.160.1424.0023.98-0.09-0.08
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.1372.0072.040.060.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.1374.0774.070.060.06
LipscombASun0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
North FloridaASun0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.130.1348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1267.8666.440.040.04
SeattleWAC0.140.1240.0039.27-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.140.1242.8642.02-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.140.1244.4441.81-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.140.1237.9338.88-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.140.1230.7732.97-0.05-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.130.1256.0057.060.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.140.1289.6689.660.110.09
Southern UtahBSky0.140.1211.1111.98-0.11-0.09
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.130.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1244.4445.39-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1262.9662.960.030.03
SMUAmer0.100.1286.2186.520.070.09
DePaulBE0.130.1231.0330.04-0.05-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1255.1755.170.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
USCP120.130.1272.4173.260.060.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.130.1248.0048.50-0.01-0.00
TulsaAmer0.100.1250.0049.050.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.130.1216.0016.70-0.09-0.08
BradleyMVC0.130.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.130.1148.1548.55-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1150.0050.000.000.00
WashingtonP120.130.1132.1430.72-0.05-0.04
IonaMAAC0.130.1161.2961.290.030.03
IdahoBSky0.110.0952.0053.420.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.0950.0050.000.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.100.0911.1111.53-0.08-0.07
PortlandWCC0.110.0927.5927.59-0.05-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.100.0944.4445.02-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.090.001.83-0.10-0.09
San DiegoWCC0.070.0941.3841.38-0.01-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0936.0035.98-0.02-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.0933.3335.14-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.100.0967.7467.740.040.03
Fort WayneSum0.100.0959.2659.260.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0973.3373.330.030.04
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0911.1111.11-0.05-0.07
AmericanPat0.100.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.070.0996.6796.670.060.08
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.100.0936.0035.08-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.100.0925.9325.22-0.05-0.04
StanfordP120.070.0948.1546.78-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.100.0986.6786.670.070.06
UCFAmer0.100.0965.5266.270.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0982.7682.760.060.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.0925.0025.07-0.05-0.04
OaklandHorz0.100.0975.8675.860.050.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0625.0026.00-0.04-0.03
HowardMEAC0.070.0618.5220.52-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0646.1546.81-0.01-0.00
SamfordSC0.070.0653.5752.980.010.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0630.7730.93-0.03-0.02
UMKCWAC0.070.0644.4445.62-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.040.0625.9325.17-0.02-0.03
FIUCUSA0.070.0614.8114.35-0.05-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0646.4345.93-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.070.0648.0049.70-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.070.0660.7159.700.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0650.0049.680.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0658.3359.230.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0629.6331.85-0.03-0.02
PurdueB100.070.0679.3178.860.040.04
Texas TechB120.070.0658.6258.500.010.01
UTSACUSA0.070.0637.0436.94-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0625.9326.04-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0659.2658.100.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0631.0331.03-0.03-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.070.0640.0041.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0676.0077.290.040.03
RadfordBSth0.070.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0626.9228.27-0.02-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
BucknellPat0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
ColgatePat0.060.0630.0030.00-0.03-0.02
CornellIvy0.070.0623.0823.48-0.04-0.03
HawaiiBW0.030.0650.0048.750.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0628.0030.25-0.03-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0663.3363.330.010.02
South DakotaSum0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0625.9325.10-0.02-0.03
TroySB0.070.0651.8551.300.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0624.0024.00-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0621.4322.28-0.04-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0666.6767.530.020.02
ArizonaP120.060.0686.6786.550.050.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0640.0041.22-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0657.1456.880.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0629.6328.06-0.01-0.03
OhioMAC0.070.0665.3866.640.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.070.0661.5461.950.020.01
MercerSC0.060.0642.8643.57-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0648.1548.26-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.060.0675.8674.140.030.03
HoustonAmer0.030.0671.4370.580.010.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0630.4330.00-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.060.0689.6688.490.050.04
TCUB120.060.0657.1456.900.010.01
TempleAmer0.060.0650.0050.990.000.00
TowsonCAA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0617.8618.08-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0644.8345.81-0.01-0.00
DavidsonA100.030.0351.8551.280.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0340.0038.77-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.040.0348.1547.90-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.040.0346.1545.04-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.040.0375.8676.270.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.030.0357.1456.750.000.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0355.1754.140.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.030.0325.9325.45-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0354.1752.440.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0366.6765.850.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0326.6727.00-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0341.6741.50-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0358.6257.980.010.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.030.0364.2963.720.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.0010.00-0.03-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.5752.890.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0339.1339.73-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.037.698.10-0.03-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.030.0360.7159.770.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0351.8550.780.000.00
CreightonBE0.030.0375.0074.570.020.01
DaytonA100.030.0381.4880.740.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0347.8349.16-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0323.0824.04-0.02-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0353.5754.970.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0346.1546.13-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0375.8674.710.020.01
TexasB120.030.0334.4834.12-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.440.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0389.6690.150.030.02
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0371.4370.190.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.030.0362.0762.620.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.3142.27-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0386.2185.440.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0340.0042.28-0.01-0.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0362.0761.430.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0382.7682.760.020.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0367.8668.150.010.01