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Through games of Feb 6, 2016.


Air Force

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:232.6
Current RPI:209
Expected SOS:152
Current SOS:171
Current Record:10-12
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:3-8
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:115
Expected OOC SOS:194



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-14165.30.12%
14-15181.51.23%
13-16199.67.34%
12-17216.823.50%
11-18235.240.21%
10-19253.827.59%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Air Force.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Southern Illinois (139.7)MVCA77-75L0%0.0
11-16Tennessee Tech (100.1)OVCH80-70W100%0.0
11-19Mississippi Valley St. (327.7)SWACH65-64W100%0.0
11-22Robert Morris (299.9)NECH64-52W100%0.0
11-25Colorado (45.6)P12A81-70L0%0.0
11-28New Mexico St. (119.9)WACH66-64W100%0.0
12-2The Citadel (303.2)SCH97-93W100%0.0
12-5Denver (200.4)SumA59-61W100%0.0
12-8Ohio St. (95.6)B10A74-50L0%0.0
12-12Army (221.9)PatH80-90L0%0.0
12-19UC Davis (253.5)BWA60-67W100%0.0
1-2San Jose St. (295.5)MWCH64-57W100%0.0
1-6Wyoming (179.0)MWCA64-52L0%0.0
1-9Nevada (135.1)MWCH63-86L0%0.0
1-12Utah St. (164.3)MWCA79-60L0%0.0
1-16UNLV (121.2)MWCA100-64L0%0.0
1-20Colorado St. (181.1)MWCH79-83L0%0.0
1-23Fresno St. (123.2)MWCH55-56L0%0.0
1-27New Mexico (95.8)MWCA84-55L0%0.0
1-30San Jose St. (295.5)MWCA75-54L0%0.0
2-2Wyoming (179.0)MWCH70-62W100%0.0
2-6Boise St. (89.4)MWCH61-53W100%0.0
2-10Nevada (135.1)MWCA0-014%-11.6
2-13San Diego St. (48.8)MWCA0-04%-18.5
2-16UNLV (121.2)MWCH0-016%-10.8
2-20New Mexico (95.8)MWCH0-017%-10.3
2-24Fresno St. (123.2)MWCA0-012%-12.8
3-1Utah St. (164.3)MWCH0-036%-3.8
3-5Colorado St. (181.1)MWCA0-016%-11.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Air Force's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Air Force's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Air Force.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Air ForceMWC26.3426.3542.2235.49-4.10-7.65
New MexicoMWC2.914.3659.0961.020.530.96
WyomingMWC5.194.3542.8641.95-0.74-0.70
Colorado St.MWC2.874.3350.0047.320.00-0.23
Fresno St.MWC2.864.3260.0057.100.570.61
NevadaMWC2.794.3252.6351.580.150.14
UNLVMWC2.804.2947.6252.47-0.130.21
Utah St.MWC2.804.2942.1143.96-0.44-0.52
San Jose St.MWC5.024.2822.2220.59-2.79-2.52
Boise St.MWC2.922.7266.6764.760.970.80
San Diego St.MWC0.702.6972.7371.190.321.14
New Mexico St.WAC2.611.9868.1871.150.950.84
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.421.8117.3920.79-1.58-1.06
Robert MorrisNEC2.421.8129.1731.76-1.01-0.66
Tennessee TechOVC2.411.8171.4369.231.030.70
ColoradoP122.331.7868.1864.110.850.50
DenverSum2.371.7856.5253.650.310.13
UC DavisBW2.321.7542.1138.19-0.37-0.41
ArmyPat2.271.7250.0051.700.000.06
Ohio St.B102.271.7256.5252.640.300.09
Southern IllinoisMVC2.271.7270.8369.520.950.67
The CitadelSC2.271.7235.0032.46-0.68-0.60
Montana St.BSky0.480.3140.9143.72-0.09-0.04
ArizonaP120.210.2179.1778.310.120.12
OregonP120.260.2181.8278.150.160.12
UC IrvineBW0.210.1972.7371.610.100.08
Utah ValleyWAC0.260.1933.3334.94-0.09-0.06
SeattleWAC0.270.1847.6244.99-0.01-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.160.1845.4551.34-0.010.00
Cal PolyBW0.160.1830.0034.56-0.07-0.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.200.1866.6767.680.070.06
PortlandWCC0.260.1840.0038.50-0.05-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.200.1872.7376.350.090.09
BYUWCC0.200.1866.6769.500.070.07
Northern IowaMVC0.190.1754.1755.090.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.160.1663.6462.150.040.04
San DiegoWCC0.220.1631.8229.14-0.08-0.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.220.1630.4331.18-0.09-0.06
UC RiversideBW0.210.1545.8341.66-0.02-0.03
HawaiiBW0.160.1584.2181.680.110.10
UTEPCUSA0.200.1552.1751.930.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.240.1556.5256.310.030.02
CaliforniaP120.200.1565.2262.900.060.04
Oral RobertsSum0.150.1539.1341.12-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.150.1475.0076.230.070.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.170.1335.0032.28-0.05-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.110.1314.2915.47-0.08-0.09
PacificWCC0.110.1225.0028.89-0.06-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1239.1337.74-0.02-0.03
Oregon St.P120.160.1261.9056.430.040.02
South DakotaSum0.100.1241.6741.24-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.150.1282.6181.140.100.07
Northern ColoradoBSky0.150.1228.5726.96-0.06-0.05
DrakeMVC0.100.1221.7423.66-0.06-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.140.1252.1751.940.010.00
OaklandHorz0.150.1268.0067.970.050.04
RiceCUSA0.100.1228.5729.71-0.04-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.1114.2917.91-0.07-0.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.119.0917.11-0.08-0.07
SouthernSWAC0.150.1165.0066.790.040.04
Washington St.P120.100.1136.3632.01-0.03-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.1143.4842.63-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1145.4554.10-0.010.01
IdahoBSky0.170.1054.5554.930.020.01
Idaho St.BSky0.100.0945.0046.14-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.170.0957.8962.290.030.02
Weber St.BSky0.100.0965.0069.270.030.04
ChattanoogaSC0.160.0986.3685.030.120.07
East Tennessee St.SC0.110.0959.0959.440.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.110.0922.7323.25-0.06-0.05
MercerSC0.160.0972.7370.750.070.04
VMISC0.100.0915.7917.42-0.07-0.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.0939.1338.57-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0954.1751.650.000.00
UCLAP120.050.0956.5253.250.010.01
BucknellPat0.140.0954.5558.150.010.01
IndianaB100.100.0979.1774.030.060.04
LehighPat0.090.0933.3337.25-0.03-0.02
UtahP120.050.0972.7368.540.020.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.0947.6252.67-0.000.00
BradleyMVC0.100.0912.5012.85-0.07-0.06
BryantNEC0.140.0925.0026.38-0.07-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0950.0051.910.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0954.1750.940.000.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0983.3383.010.030.06
AuburnSEC0.100.0840.9136.61-0.02-0.02
USCP120.050.0878.2673.060.030.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.0820.8323.63-0.06-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.140.0840.0045.51-0.03-0.01
PurdueB100.100.0879.1776.550.060.04
North TexasCUSA0.140.0833.3332.99-0.05-0.03
NorthwesternB100.090.0866.6763.430.030.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0815.7920.03-0.06-0.05
BelmontOVC0.050.0666.6766.540.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0628.5728.55-0.02-0.03
DukeACC0.060.0673.9170.060.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0652.0050.260.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0625.0024.37-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.110.0662.5056.260.030.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0650.0052.340.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.110.0642.1145.73-0.02-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0666.6762.630.020.02
ToledoMAC0.110.0659.0960.070.020.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0642.8650.39-0.000.00
LipscombASun0.100.0625.0029.27-0.05-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0660.0060.080.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0652.1753.310.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.060.0631.5837.72-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.050.0639.1341.32-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0628.5732.71-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0628.5731.90-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0628.5731.37-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0640.9145.38-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.064.357.73-0.05-0.05
IowaB100.050.0681.8280.120.030.04
Murray St.OVC0.100.0645.4549.71-0.01-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.0617.3920.65-0.06-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.0613.6415.80-0.07-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0631.5831.81-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.050.0630.4331.88-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0654.1755.580.000.01
ColgatePat0.050.0645.4546.10-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.069.5213.53-0.04-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.050.0639.1338.32-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.100.0672.7368.020.040.02
IPFWSum0.050.0670.8368.570.020.02
IUPUISum0.090.0640.0039.79-0.02-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0660.8758.450.010.01
LafayettePat0.100.0622.7324.04-0.05-0.03
LamarSlnd0.050.0631.5831.96-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.100.0634.7837.18-0.03-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.100.0650.0051.170.000.00
NavyPat0.050.0662.5062.440.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0656.5257.280.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0654.5550.110.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0677.2776.850.050.03
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0615.0015.36-0.04-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0627.7829.14-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.100.0650.0046.610.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.050.0665.2261.080.020.01
Penn St.B100.100.0650.0046.740.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0613.0413.54-0.07-0.04
IllinoisB100.090.0647.8344.55-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0647.8348.91-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.090.0687.5083.690.070.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0634.7837.06-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0637.5043.36-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0650.0049.440.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0663.6465.020.010.02
RutgersB100.050.0621.7420.35-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.090.0563.6456.370.030.01
NebraskaB100.050.0554.1751.820.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0538.8945.64-0.01-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0530.0035.78-0.04-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0536.8438.40-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0352.1755.930.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0337.5040.51-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0340.9143.55-0.01-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0331.8230.48-0.02-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0385.7185.390.040.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0347.8350.14-0.000.00
BaylorB120.050.0372.7366.500.020.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.12-0.02-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0369.5767.220.020.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0328.5729.64-0.02-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0334.7840.92-0.02-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0363.6460.930.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0340.0039.00-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0352.6350.230.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0325.0026.87-0.03-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0323.8127.69-0.03-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0390.4886.860.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0321.7424.68-0.03-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0345.4542.00-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0352.3854.010.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0345.4547.57-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0378.2674.360.030.01
KansasB120.000.0381.8277.570.000.02
MaineAE0.050.0334.7834.00-0.02-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0319.0521.34-0.03-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0359.0959.640.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0379.1780.780.030.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0310.0013.12-0.04-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0333.3334.19-0.02-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0347.8346.87-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0382.6179.550.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0357.1459.450.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0373.9170.070.020.01
SMUAmer0.050.0390.4885.570.040.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0370.8370.930.020.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0366.6765.220.020.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0372.7372.450.020.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0321.0523.59-0.03-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0361.9056.690.010.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0363.6459.380.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0373.9171.570.020.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0371.4368.720.020.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0360.8760.800.010.01
MichiganB100.000.0369.5766.200.000.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0326.0927.82-0.02-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0363.1658.810.010.00
PennIvy0.050.0338.8937.66-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0338.1033.40-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0345.0049.37-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0350.0053.300.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0366.6770.540.020.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0382.6178.050.030.02
WisconsinB100.050.0360.8755.860.010.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0330.4332.35-0.02-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0325.0033.22-0.02-0.01