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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


UNC Greensboro

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:118.0
Current RPI:105
Expected SOS:230
Current SOS:209
Current Record:11-5
Expected Record:19-9
Current Conf Record:5-1
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-2
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:148
Expected OOC SOS:243



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-558.30.26%
22-668.32.83%
21-781.410.32%
20-897.121.78%
19-9114.827.27%
18-10135.021.20%
17-11154.911.64%
16-12174.13.80%
15-13193.60.78%
14-14208.20.11%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UNC Greensboro.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Virginia (3.8)ACCA60-48L0%0.0
11-20Delaware (225.4)CAAH79-66W100%0.0
11-21Longwood (334.3)BSthH71-40W100%0.0
11-24Wake Forest (134.2)ACCA81-75L0%0.0
11-28Presbyterian (326.2)BSthA74-72L0%0.0
12-2Liberty (237.1)BSthA75-76W100%0.0
12-7Elon (143.6)CAAH75-44W100%0.0
12-13UNC Wilmington (262.5)CAAH71-58W100%0.0
12-16North Carolina St. (104.7)ACCA76-81W100%0.0
12-19UNC Asheville (142.3)BSthH60-67L0%0.0
12-30Wofford (118.2)SCH71-67W100%0.0
1-6VMI (315.2)SCA61-63W100%0.0
1-11East Tennessee St. (61.2)SCA68-58L0%0.0
1-13Western Carolina (223.1)SCA55-66W100%0.0
1-18The Citadel (314.4)SCH72-58W100%0.0
1-20Mercer (170.4)SCH70-66W100%0.0
1-24Furman (88.2)SCH0-054%1.1
1-27Samford (260.9)SCA0-067%5.0
1-29Chattanooga (287.7)SCA0-072%6.4
2-1VMI (315.2)SCH0-095%17.9
2-7Furman (88.2)SCA0-032%-5.3
2-10Western Carolina (223.1)SCH0-090%14.5
2-12East Tennessee St. (61.2)SCH0-045%-1.3
2-15The Citadel (314.4)SCA0-086%11.8
2-17Mercer (170.4)SCA0-035%-4.4
2-20Wofford (118.2)SCA0-045%-1.3
2-23Chattanooga (287.7)SCH0-088%12.8
2-25Samford (260.9)SCH0-085%11.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UNC Greensboro's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UNC Greensboro's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UNC Greensboro.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UNC GreensboroSC26.3926.4472.0670.0111.6410.58
FurmanSC0.724.6766.6769.380.241.81
VMISC3.834.6626.6725.86-1.79-2.25
MercerSC3.484.6147.0656.51-0.200.60
Western CarolinaSC3.584.6141.1837.64-0.63-1.14
WoffordSC3.404.6173.3366.461.591.52
ChattanoogaSC0.464.5822.2229.18-0.25-1.91
East Tennessee St.SC3.404.5876.4779.291.802.68
SamfordSC0.464.5827.7833.32-0.20-1.53
The CitadelSC3.414.5720.0019.26-2.04-2.81
UNC AshevilleBSth3.572.1650.0057.130.000.31
LongwoodBSth3.562.0717.6516.75-2.30-1.38
PresbyterianBSth3.562.0723.5324.41-1.88-1.06
LibertyBSth3.552.0752.9456.190.210.26
North Carolina St.ACC3.471.9768.4258.231.280.32
ElonCAA3.211.9755.5652.910.360.11
UNC WilmingtonCAA3.371.9723.5328.32-1.79-0.85
DelawareCAA3.391.9450.0044.540.00-0.21
Wake ForestACC3.371.9038.8938.41-0.75-0.44
VirginiaACC3.291.8494.4485.632.921.31
High PointBSth0.620.4443.7549.22-0.08-0.01
CampbellBSth0.440.3547.0647.41-0.03-0.02
RadfordBSth0.520.3557.8958.880.080.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.430.3525.0031.44-0.22-0.13
WinthropBSth0.260.3150.0059.430.000.06
ClemsonACC0.330.2784.2173.180.220.13
James MadisonCAA0.260.2525.0028.25-0.13-0.11
Gardner WebbBSth0.260.2538.8940.78-0.06-0.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.340.2566.6765.630.110.08
DrexelCAA0.340.2530.0030.97-0.14-0.09
NortheasternCAA0.250.2563.1663.210.070.07
North CarolinaACC0.350.2476.1972.570.180.11
Virginia TechACC0.350.2270.0060.400.140.04
TennesseeSEC0.330.2172.2268.930.150.08
Georgia TechACC0.180.2152.6343.040.01-0.03
DukeACC0.240.2189.4785.240.190.15
HofstraCAA0.160.1957.8959.500.030.04
TowsonCAA0.260.1963.1665.980.070.06
William & MaryCAA0.160.1964.7160.010.050.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1870.0068.210.000.07
Florida St.ACC0.100.1573.6869.660.050.06
Notre DameACC0.160.1563.1661.000.040.03
SyracuseACC0.160.1568.4261.280.060.03
DavidsonA100.270.1358.8261.440.050.03
CharlotteCUSA0.170.1223.5325.63-0.09-0.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.1210.0016.77-0.07-0.08
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.1216.6724.90-0.06-0.06
MemphisAmer0.090.1265.0058.540.030.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.170.1266.6773.220.060.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1257.8953.220.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.160.1226.3230.45-0.08-0.05
LouisvilleACC0.000.1278.9569.820.000.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.180.1055.5657.250.020.01
VCUA100.180.1060.0059.710.040.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.180.0927.7838.12-0.08-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0915.7922.64-0.06-0.05
Fort WayneSum0.170.0952.6351.680.010.00
Georgia St.SB0.090.0966.6765.550.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0978.9574.200.050.05
LSUSEC0.090.0961.1153.190.020.01
ValparaisoMVC0.090.0947.3748.77-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.170.090.008.42-0.17-0.08
Georgia SouthernSB0.170.0966.6765.390.060.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.170.0931.5836.43-0.06-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.160.0965.0054.600.050.01
Miami FLACC0.080.0977.7870.410.040.04
PittsburghACC0.000.0940.0030.880.00-0.03
AmericanPat0.100.0725.0026.03-0.05-0.03
DuquesneA100.100.0770.0058.090.040.01
MaristMAAC0.100.0721.0521.99-0.06-0.04
Ohio St.B100.100.0781.8276.870.060.04
UMBCAE0.100.0755.5655.550.010.01
CaliforniaP120.100.0636.8431.11-0.03-0.02
HarvardIvy0.100.0637.5046.70-0.02-0.00
HowardMEAC0.170.0610.5326.29-0.14-0.03
North FloridaASun0.100.0631.5835.15-0.04-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.100.0661.1151.910.020.00
Texas TechB120.100.0678.9571.750.060.03
CornellIvy0.170.0633.3333.23-0.06-0.02
HoustonAmer0.170.0678.9573.000.100.03
IllinoisB100.170.0645.0043.62-0.02-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.170.0635.0031.82-0.05-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0647.0644.920.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.0668.4259.020.030.01
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0631.5836.23-0.03-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0668.4264.160.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.0666.6763.070.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0689.4785.550.070.04
ColoradoP120.090.0660.0053.720.020.00
DetroitHorz0.090.0621.0525.99-0.05-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0610.0019.62-0.07-0.04
FordhamA100.090.0631.5829.03-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0638.8943.36-0.02-0.01
KentuckySEC0.090.0673.6868.040.040.02
La SalleA100.090.0640.0042.69-0.02-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0668.4263.610.000.02
MassachusettsA100.090.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.090.0663.6457.610.020.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0010.260.00-0.05
New HampshireAE0.000.0633.3340.100.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0652.9455.030.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0626.3231.480.00-0.02
TroySB0.090.0638.8944.43-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0661.1164.150.000.02
UCFAmer0.090.0668.4260.830.030.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0660.0062.010.020.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0661.1156.790.000.01
XavierBE0.090.0685.7180.060.060.04
Austin PeayOVC0.160.0644.4446.01-0.02-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.160.0627.7841.03-0.07-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.160.0683.3381.450.110.04
RichmondA100.160.0631.5834.35-0.06-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.160.0636.8435.58-0.04-0.02
Arizona St.P120.090.0378.9576.160.050.02
Chicago St.WAC0.090.030.003.06-0.09-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0320.0032.24-0.05-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0342.1132.46-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0370.0071.220.030.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0315.0020.28-0.06-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0350.0051.390.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0344.4450.31-0.010.00
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0352.9459.250.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0380.0078.870.050.02
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0350.0053.280.000.00
BradleyMVC0.080.0365.0057.890.020.00
BuffaloMAC0.080.0372.2274.940.040.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0329.4133.20-0.03-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0361.9063.170.020.01
FIUCUSA0.080.0335.2935.54-0.02-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0344.4446.03-0.01-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0345.0047.06-0.01-0.00
NavyPat0.080.0360.0055.160.020.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0390.4888.970.070.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0342.1146.09-0.01-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.080.0335.0026.13-0.02-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.080.0311.1118.00-0.06-0.02
YaleIvy0.080.0341.1847.61-0.01-0.00
ArmyPat0.080.0361.1160.440.020.01
DrakeMVC0.080.0355.0048.980.01-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.080.0325.0043.18-0.04-0.00
LehighPat0.080.0338.8944.74-0.02-0.00
West VirginiaB120.080.0380.0076.040.050.02
WisconsinB100.080.0350.0046.270.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.080.0380.0078.940.050.02
BryantNEC0.080.039.5217.12-0.06-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0333.3333.76-0.03-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0344.4450.08-0.010.00
Penn St.B100.080.0361.9055.820.020.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0357.1460.410.010.01
UMKCWAC0.080.0321.0524.76-0.05-0.01