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Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


UNC Greensboro

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:112.4
Current RPI:108
Expected SOS:208
Current SOS:215
Current Record:18-8
Expected Record:19-9
Current Conf Record:12-4
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-1
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:157
Expected OOC SOS:208



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-8100.631.49%
19-9116.763.72%
18-10132.74.79%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UNC Greensboro.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Virginia (21.4)ACCH51-76L0%0.0
11-14Presbyterian (344.8)BSthH61-42W100%0.0
11-18High Point (230.6)BSthA63-57L0%0.0
11-19North Dakota St. (95.4)SumN65-54W100%0.0
11-20Navy (208.6)PatN59-72W100%0.0
11-29North Carolina A&T (350.3)MEACH86-66W100%0.0
12-3Liberty (160.9)BSthH72-65W100%0.0
12-9Wake Forest (42.2)ACCH75-78L0%0.0
12-19UNC Asheville (62.6)BSthA73-75W100%0.0
12-22Georgetown (75.0)BEA78-56L0%0.0
12-28The Citadel (317.6)SCA87-95W100%0.0
12-31Samford (159.5)SCH62-73L0%0.0
1-2Chattanooga (96.4)SCH73-68W100%0.0
1-7Western Carolina (261.7)SCH76-57W100%0.0
1-12East Tennessee St. (63.5)SCA79-83W100%0.0
1-14VMI (320.7)SCA82-91W100%0.0
1-19Mercer (204.6)SCH68-66W100%0.0
1-21The Citadel (317.6)SCH81-72W100%0.0
1-25Wofford (194.0)SCA93-74L0%0.0
1-28Furman (99.8)SCH67-73L0%0.0
2-2Chattanooga (96.4)SCA91-68L0%0.0
2-4Samford (159.5)SCA75-81W100%0.0
2-11Western Carolina (261.7)SCA68-76W100%0.0
2-15Wofford (194.0)SCH74-55W100%0.0
2-18Furman (99.8)SCA52-73W100%0.0
2-22Mercer (204.6)SCA66-72W100%0.0
2-25VMI (320.7)SCH0-092%15.3
2-27East Tennessee St. (63.5)SCH0-034%-4.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UNC Greensboro's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UNC Greensboro's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UNC Greensboro.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UNC GreensboroSC26.4426.4469.2367.4910.179.25
FurmanSC4.934.7165.3865.581.521.47
Western CarolinaSC4.854.6424.0024.44-2.52-2.37
The CitadelSC4.744.6125.0023.78-2.37-2.42
VMISC2.964.6016.6717.79-1.98-2.97
East Tennessee St.SC2.934.5880.7781.321.802.87
MercerSC4.714.5844.0043.80-0.57-0.57
SamfordSC4.714.5856.0056.770.570.62
WoffordSC4.794.5744.0043.43-0.57-0.60
ChattanoogaSC4.704.5766.6767.931.571.64
PresbyterianBSth2.332.1712.5012.01-1.74-1.65
UNC AshevilleBSth2.252.1076.9276.511.211.12
High PointBSth2.292.1041.6743.16-0.38-0.29
LibertyBSth2.182.0460.0059.760.440.40
NavyPat2.071.9151.8550.510.080.02
North Dakota St.Sum2.031.8868.0067.280.730.65
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.961.820.003.50-1.96-1.69
VirginiaACC1.961.8265.3866.480.600.60
Wake ForestACC1.961.8255.5654.280.220.16
GeorgetownBE1.921.7948.1547.43-0.07-0.09
CampbellBSth0.440.4540.0040.08-0.09-0.09
RadfordBSth0.400.4238.4640.55-0.09-0.08
Gardner WebbBSth0.330.3950.0049.670.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.340.3229.1729.85-0.14-0.13
WinthropBSth0.330.3276.0077.350.170.17
LongwoodBSth0.260.2616.0016.19-0.18-0.17
Virginia TechACC0.220.2570.3769.250.090.10
Coastal CarolinaSB0.220.1946.1547.50-0.02-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.210.1971.4372.700.090.08
Miami FLACC0.210.1870.3767.240.090.06
ClemsonACC0.210.1851.8553.680.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.150.1651.8552.250.010.01
West VirginiaB120.150.1678.5777.800.080.09
USC UpstateASun0.180.1650.0049.750.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.180.1640.7440.75-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.180.1646.4343.89-0.01-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.180.1555.5652.750.020.01
North CarolinaACC0.140.1582.1480.660.090.09
Ohio St.B100.180.1553.5752.340.010.01
DaytonA100.070.1380.7779.440.050.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1342.8643.32-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.150.1369.2368.600.060.05
ColgatePat0.140.1331.0332.74-0.05-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.1351.8551.270.010.00
MarshallCUSA0.150.1353.8554.710.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1275.0077.120.050.07
Florida St.ACC0.140.1278.5776.210.080.06
XavierBE0.140.1264.2964.300.040.03
MarquetteBE0.140.1262.9661.410.040.03
VillanovaBE0.100.1289.6688.760.080.09
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1053.5751.920.010.00
RichmondA100.070.1059.2659.930.010.02
UMBCAE0.110.0961.5460.470.020.02
LSUSEC0.110.0933.3331.80-0.04-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0920.0022.21-0.04-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.0920.0020.88-0.06-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.100.0953.8554.930.010.01
Saint LouisA100.110.0932.1431.02-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0933.3334.37-0.01-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.110.0928.0029.86-0.05-0.04
BucknellPat0.070.0973.3373.730.030.04
HowardMEAC0.110.0919.2321.44-0.07-0.05
La SalleA100.110.0953.8554.810.010.01
Notre DameACC0.110.0975.0074.370.050.04
Boston CollegeACC0.100.0932.1430.40-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.100.0978.5776.170.060.05
LouisvilleACC0.070.0978.5778.520.040.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0951.7249.530.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.070.0953.5750.750.000.00
SyracuseACC0.100.0958.6257.910.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.100.0960.7160.840.020.02
DenverSum0.070.0757.1456.680.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.070.0760.0060.590.010.01
IUPUISum0.070.0738.4639.08-0.02-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.040.0751.8551.810.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.070.0763.6464.970.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
South DakotaSum0.070.0762.9662.810.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0726.0925.92-0.04-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.080.0652.0053.050.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0644.0045.06-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.070.0646.4344.09-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0630.7730.10-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.070.0634.4834.78-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0627.5928.17-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.070.0655.5655.660.010.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0666.6764.750.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.070.0655.5655.100.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0620.0021.74-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.070.0629.6328.76-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.070.0659.2657.620.010.01
VermontAE0.070.0682.7682.940.050.04
VCUA100.070.0682.1479.370.050.04
AkronMAC0.070.0677.7876.390.040.03
AmericanPat0.070.0625.0025.07-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0625.0027.77-0.04-0.03
ArmyPat0.070.0639.2938.46-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0660.7159.670.020.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0653.5753.370.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0688.8987.450.060.05
DavidsonA100.070.0653.8552.600.010.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0625.9327.44-0.04-0.03
DetroitHorz0.040.0622.2222.38-0.02-0.03
FloridaSEC0.070.0682.1480.600.050.04
FordhamA100.040.0644.4444.02-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.070.0662.9661.470.020.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0657.6955.370.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.070.0650.0050.080.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0637.5042.38-0.02-0.01
LafayettePat0.070.0625.9325.63-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.070.0659.2660.160.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0648.1549.03-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0630.7733.71-0.03-0.02
MichiganB100.070.0664.2963.090.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.040.0625.0026.25-0.02-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0651.8550.690.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0644.0046.00-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0683.3384.080.050.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0634.7833.41-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.070.0640.7440.12-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.070.0644.0042.77-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0637.0436.81-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.070.0651.8553.220.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.040.0651.8554.430.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.040.0681.4881.510.020.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0637.5040.16-0.02-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0625.9326.05-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.070.0655.5656.900.010.01
ButlerBE0.070.0678.5777.620.040.03
CreightonBE0.070.0677.7875.390.040.03
DePaulBE0.070.0632.1430.89-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.030.0662.9661.760.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0642.8642.05-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.040.0375.0071.920.020.01
Boise St.MWC0.040.0364.0064.920.010.01
DrexelCAA0.040.0328.5729.06-0.02-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0351.7250.330.000.00
UC DavisBW0.040.0356.0055.930.000.00
HoustonAmer0.040.0370.3769.130.020.01
IndianaB100.040.0353.5752.940.000.00
LamarSlnd0.040.0350.0052.050.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0314.2918.10-0.03-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.040.0372.7374.040.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.040.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0335.7137.15-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0340.9140.59-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.040.0341.6743.49-0.01-0.00
HartfordAE0.030.0330.0029.22-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0350.0049.370.00-0.00
KansasB120.040.0389.2987.840.030.02
MassachusettsA100.040.0348.1547.57-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.040.0346.1546.92-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.040.0332.1432.21-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.030.0347.8350.32-0.000.00
RiderMAAC0.040.0353.3353.310.000.00
SienaMAAC0.040.0348.2848.54-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0348.1547.60-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.040.0366.6766.210.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0341.6742.37-0.01-0.00
IowaB100.040.0353.5751.590.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0371.4368.340.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.040.0337.9339.64-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.040.0310.7111.38-0.03-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.030.0340.0041.64-0.01-0.00
YaleIvy0.040.0359.0960.220.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0350.0049.270.00-0.00
MarylandB100.030.0377.7876.990.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0366.6765.160.010.01
OregonP120.030.0385.7185.930.020.02
WisconsinB100.030.0381.4880.840.020.02