Texas San Antonio

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	196.0
Current RPI:	196
Expected SOS:	287
Current SOS:	287
Current Record:	16-14
Expected Record:	16-14
Current Conf Record:	10-7
Expected Conf Record:	10-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-7
Current OOC Record:	6-7
Expected OOC Record:	6-7
Expected OOC RPI:	180
Expected OOC SOS:	242

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-14	196.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas San Antonio.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Texas El Paso (147.0)	CUSA	A	64-73	W	100%
11-15	Oral Roberts (51.0)	Sum	N	77-78	W	100%
11-16	Oklahoma St. (124.0)	B12	A	90-85	L	0%
11-21	Colorado St. (29.0)	MWC	A	85-75	L	0%
11-22	Fresno St. (229.0)	WAC	N	83-79	W	100%
11-26	Pepperdine (271.0)	WCC	H	64-70	L	0%
11-30	San Jose St. (279.0)	WAC	A	72-66	L	0%
12-5	Samford (269.0)	SC	A	52-74	W	100%
12-20	Houston (221.0)	CUSA	A	77-75	L	0%
12-22	Troy (260.0)	SB	A	70-76	W	100%
12-28	UC Riverside (253.0)	BW	H	65-70	L	0%
1-1	Bowling Green (158.0)	MAC	H	86-79	W	100%
1-4	Nicholls St. (298.0)	Slnd	H	91-50	W	100%
1-8	Sam Houston St. (273.0)	Slnd	A	60-62	W	100%
1-11	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (319.0)	Slnd	H	49-50	L	0%
1-14	Stephen F. Austin (202.0)	Slnd	A	52-59	W	100%
1-18	Northwestern St. (217.0)	Slnd	H	80-62	W	100%
1-21	Texas St. (287.0)	Slnd	A	75-80	W	100%
1-28	Sam Houston St. (273.0)	Slnd	H	78-66	W	100%
2-1	Texas Arlington (111.0)	Slnd	A	67-66	L	0%
2-4	Lamar (108.0)	Slnd	A	80-66	L	0%
2-8	Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)	Slnd	H	59-51	W	100%
2-11	Stephen F. Austin (202.0)	Slnd	H	51-59	L	0%
2-15	McNeese St. (174.0)	Slnd	A	58-54	L	0%
2-18	Georgia St. (141.0)	CAA	A	82-71	L	0%
2-22	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (319.0)	Slnd	A	82-86	W	100%
2-25	Texas St. (287.0)	Slnd	H	52-66	L	0%
2-29	Central Arkansas (321.0)	Slnd	A	60-73	W	100%
3-3	Texas Arlington (111.0)	Slnd	H	97-88	W	100%
3-7	McNeese St. (174.0)	Slnd	N	78-74	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas San Antonio's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Texas San Antonio's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Texas San Antonio.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	26.21	26.21	56.76	56.76	3.54	3.54
Texas Arlington	Slnd	4.13	4.13	75.86	75.86	2.14	2.14
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	4.12	4.12	57.69	57.69	0.63	0.63
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	4.09	4.09	34.62	34.62	-1.26	-1.26
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	4.07	4.07	17.86	17.86	-2.62	-2.62
McNeese St.	Slnd	4.05	4.05	44.44	44.44	-0.45	-0.45
Texas St.	Slnd	4.05	4.05	33.33	33.33	-1.35	-1.35
Lamar	Slnd	2.47	2.47	64.52	64.52	0.72	0.72
Nicholls St.	Slnd	2.37	2.37	29.63	29.63	-0.96	-0.96
Northwestern St.	Slnd	2.34	2.34	46.43	46.43	-0.17	-0.17
Central Arkansas	Slnd	2.31	2.31	24.00	24.00	-1.20	-1.20
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	2.31	2.31	36.00	36.00	-0.65	-0.65
Houston	CUSA	1.93	1.93	46.43	46.43	-0.14	-0.14
Texas El Paso	CUSA	1.93	1.93	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
Samford	SC	1.81	1.81	33.33	33.33	-0.60	-0.60
Georgia St.	CAA	1.75	1.75	64.52	64.52	0.51	0.51
San Jose St.	WAC	1.75	1.75	24.14	24.14	-0.90	-0.90
Fresno St.	WAC	1.72	1.72	36.67	36.67	-0.46	-0.46
Oklahoma St.	B12	1.72	1.72	41.94	41.94	-0.28	-0.28
UC Riverside	BW	1.72	1.72	39.29	39.29	-0.37	-0.37
Colorado St.	MWC	1.69	1.69	62.07	62.07	0.41	0.41
Bowling Green	MAC	1.67	1.67	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Oral Roberts	Sum	1.67	1.67	84.38	84.38	1.15	1.15
Pepperdine	WCC	1.67	1.67	29.63	29.63	-0.68	-0.68
Troy	SB	1.67	1.67	34.62	34.62	-0.51	-0.51
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.31	0.31	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.28	0.28	25.81	25.81	-0.14	-0.14
Texas	B12	0.26	0.26	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.25	0.25	72.73	72.73	0.11	0.11
Texas A&M	B12	0.23	0.23	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Tulsa	CUSA	0.22	0.22	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.22	0.22	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.22	0.22	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
Florida International	SB	0.20	0.20	28.57	28.57	-0.09	-0.09
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.20	0.20	25.00	25.00	-0.10	-0.10
Rice	CUSA	0.19	0.19	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.17	0.17	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.17	0.17	80.00	80.00	0.10	0.10
Toledo	MAC	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.15	0.15	10.71	10.71	-0.12	-0.12
San Diego	WCC	0.15	0.15	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
South Alabama	SB	0.15	0.15	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.15	0.15	25.93	25.93	-0.07	-0.07
North Texas	SB	0.14	0.14	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Utah	Sum	0.14	0.14	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.14	0.14	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.14	0.14	74.19	74.19	0.07	0.07
Tulane	CUSA	0.14	0.14	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.14	0.14	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	30.77	30.77	-0.05	-0.05
South Dakota	Sum	0.11	0.11	28.00	28.00	-0.05	-0.05
Denver	SB	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.11	0.11	19.23	19.23	-0.07	-0.07
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Oregon	P12	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
San Diego St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Boise St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho	WAC	0.11	0.11	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Missouri	B12	0.11	0.11	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Missouri St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.09	0.09	6.90	6.90	-0.08	-0.08
Mercer	ASun	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.09	0.09	11.11	11.11	-0.07	-0.07
Arkansas St.	SB	0.09	0.09	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.09	0.09	21.43	21.43	-0.05	-0.05
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.09	0.09	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.09	0.09	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.09	0.09	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
California	P12	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
UC Davis	BW	0.09	0.09	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
UC Irvine	BW	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Seattle	ind	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Pacific	BW	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.08	0.08	81.25	81.25	0.05	0.05
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Weber St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	78.57	78.57	0.05	0.05
Memphis	CUSA	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Akron	MAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
West Virginia	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.08	0.08	29.63	29.63	-0.03	-0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Davidson	SC	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Elon	SC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.06	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	83.33	83.33	0.04	0.04
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.06	0.06	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.06	0.06	64.29	64.29	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	94.12	94.12	0.05	0.05
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	64.29	64.29	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	18.75	18.75	-0.02	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	3.12	3.12	-0.02	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01