live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


St. Francis NY

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:276.0
Current RPI:276
Expected SOS:335
Current SOS:335
Current Record:14-17
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-12
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:311
Expected OOC SOS:309



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-17276.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Francis NY.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Boston College (250.0)ACCA75-49L0%0.0
11-21Saint Louis (206.0)A10A76-60L0%0.0
11-24Louisville (17.0)ACCA85-41L0%0.0
11-28North Florida (161.0)ASunN65-78L0%0.0
11-29Hartford (292.0)AEA67-74W100%0.0
12-2Lafayette (329.0)PatA62-69W100%0.0
12-6St. John's (246.0)BEA63-56L0%0.0
12-10NJIT (207.0)ASunH86-92L0%0.0
12-14Manhattan (229.0)MAACA71-60L0%0.0
12-20Liberty (264.0)BSthH64-55W100%0.0
12-23Saint Peter's (208.0)MAACA56-45L0%0.0
12-29Albany (107.0)AEH66-71L0%0.0
1-2Fairleigh Dickinson (205.0)NECA86-77L0%0.0
1-4Mount St. Mary's (245.0)NECA44-40L0%0.0
1-7St. Francis PA (266.0)NECH73-56W100%0.0
1-9Robert Morris (291.0)NECH56-49W100%0.0
1-14Bryant (320.0)NECA61-59L0%0.0
1-16Sacred Heart (258.0)NECH85-67W100%0.0
1-21Wagner (185.0)NECH59-83L0%0.0
1-23LIU Brooklyn (254.0)NECA49-64W100%0.0
1-28Wagner (185.0)NECA64-61L0%0.0
1-30Central Connecticut (351.0)NECA49-60W100%0.0
2-4Sacred Heart (258.0)NECA74-70L0%0.0
2-6Fairleigh Dickinson (205.0)NECH85-71W100%0.0
2-11Central Connecticut (351.0)NECH74-67W100%0.0
2-15LIU Brooklyn (254.0)NECH67-82L0%0.0
2-18St. Francis PA (266.0)NECA58-70W100%0.0
2-20Robert Morris (291.0)NECA72-82W100%0.0
2-25Bryant (320.0)NECH79-72W100%0.0
2-27Mount St. Mary's (245.0)NECH55-49W100%0.0
3-2Mount St. Mary's (245.0)NECH51-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Francis NY's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Francis NY's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Francis NY.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. Francis NYNEC26.3926.3947.4847.48-1.33-1.33
Mount St. Mary'sNEC5.745.7440.0040.00-1.15-1.15
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC4.354.3555.1755.170.450.45
WagnerNEC4.304.3065.5265.521.331.33
LIU BrooklynNEC4.224.2251.7251.720.150.15
Sacred HeartNEC4.224.2239.2939.29-0.90-0.90
St. Francis PANEC4.224.2244.4444.44-0.47-0.47
Robert MorrisNEC4.174.1733.3333.33-1.39-1.39
Central ConnecticutNEC4.164.1614.8114.81-2.93-2.93
BryantNEC4.124.1221.4321.43-2.35-2.35
HartfordAE1.911.9129.0329.03-0.80-0.80
NJITASun1.801.8051.7251.720.060.06
LafayettePat1.771.7720.6920.69-1.04-1.04
AlbanyAE1.771.7773.3373.330.830.83
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.771.7744.8344.83-0.18-0.18
North FloridaASun1.741.7462.0762.070.420.42
LouisvilleACC1.721.7273.3373.330.800.80
Boston CollegeACC1.691.6919.3519.35-1.04-1.04
St. John'sBE1.691.6920.0020.00-1.02-1.02
Saint LouisA101.691.6932.2632.26-0.60-0.60
ManhattanMAAC1.671.6740.0040.00-0.33-0.33
LibertyBSth1.611.6135.7135.71-0.46-0.46
UMass LowellAE0.370.3735.7135.71-0.11-0.11
MaineAE0.290.2926.6726.67-0.13-0.13
BinghamtonAE0.290.2926.6726.67-0.13-0.13
FordhamA100.260.2655.1755.170.030.03
YaleIvy0.240.2477.7877.780.130.13
FairfieldMAAC0.240.2459.3859.380.040.04
NiagaraMAAC0.240.2421.8821.88-0.13-0.13
AmericanPat0.230.2338.7138.71-0.05-0.05
LehighPat0.230.2351.6151.610.010.01
UMBCAE0.230.2321.8821.88-0.13-0.13
SienaMAAC0.210.2163.6463.640.060.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.210.2130.0030.00-0.08-0.08
BucknellPat0.200.2055.1755.170.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.180.1869.7069.700.070.07
RiderMAAC0.180.1839.3939.39-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.180.1858.6258.620.030.03
Loyola MDPat0.180.1830.0030.00-0.07-0.07
Notre DameACC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
ArmyPat0.160.1658.0658.060.030.03
Holy CrossPat0.160.1642.4242.42-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.160.1623.3323.33-0.08-0.08
MonmouthMAAC0.160.1679.4179.410.090.09
DuquesneA100.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.150.1580.0080.000.090.09
George MasonA100.150.1534.3834.38-0.05-0.05
BrownIvy0.140.1425.9325.93-0.07-0.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
StetsonASun0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
USC UpstateASun0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
RutgersB100.130.1319.3519.35-0.08-0.08
PrincetonIvy0.130.1377.7877.780.070.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
PennIvy0.130.1337.0437.04-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
Seton HallBE0.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
MarylandB100.130.1375.0075.000.060.06
ConnecticutAmer0.110.1170.5970.590.050.05
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
TowsonCAA0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
VCUA100.110.1170.5970.590.040.04
George WashingtonA100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
VillanovaBE0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1065.5265.520.030.03
SyracuseACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
VermontAE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
FurmanSC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
NavyPat0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
ColgatePat0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0856.0056.000.010.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
DelawareCAA0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
MassachusettsA100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
VirginiaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
ClemsonACC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
ElonCAA0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
James MadisonCAA0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
WashingtonP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
TempleAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01