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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


St. Francis NY

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:170.0
Current RPI:170
Expected SOS:310
Current SOS:310
Current Record:22-11
Expected Record:22-11
Current Conf Record:17-4
Expected Conf Record:17-4
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-2
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:262
Expected OOC SOS:306



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-11170.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Francis NY.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Georgetown (25.0)BEA83-62L0%0.0
11-19Army (235.0)PatH71-74L0%0.0
11-23Rutgers (178.0)B10A76-73L0%0.0
11-25La Salle (101.0)A10A73-60L0%0.0
11-28Norfolk St. (167.0)MEACN70-72L0%0.0
11-29Tennessee St. (341.0)OVCN57-59W100%0.0
12-6Liberty (347.0)BSthA54-65W100%0.0
12-9NJIT (159.0)indA68-66L0%0.0
12-17Delaware St. (204.0)MEACH64-72L0%0.0
12-20Florida Atlantic (303.0)CUSAH61-56W100%0.0
12-23Monmouth (176.0)MAACA46-71W100%0.0
12-30Columbia (196.0)IvyH72-64W100%0.0
1-3Sacred Heart (242.0)NECA71-73W100%0.0
1-5Bryant (189.0)NECH63-47W100%0.0
1-8Fairleigh Dickinson (312.0)NECA69-78W100%0.0
1-10Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECA71-61L0%0.0
1-16Robert Morris (171.0)NECA63-68W100%0.0
1-18St. Francis PA (179.0)NECA59-60W100%0.0
1-21Central Connecticut (342.0)NECH63-51W100%0.0
1-24Robert Morris (171.0)NECH65-67L0%0.0
1-29Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECH73-67W100%0.0
1-31LIU Brooklyn (256.0)NECH81-64W100%0.0
2-5Central Connecticut (342.0)NECA81-90W100%0.0
2-7Wagner (294.0)NECA51-66W100%0.0
2-12Wagner (294.0)NECH83-66W100%0.0
2-14Sacred Heart (242.0)NECH71-62W100%0.0
2-19Fairleigh Dickinson (312.0)NECH70-54W100%0.0
2-21St. Francis PA (179.0)NECH66-54W100%0.0
2-26LIU Brooklyn (256.0)NECA69-74W100%0.0
2-28Bryant (189.0)NECA61-51L0%0.0
3-4LIU Brooklyn (256.0)NECH79-70W100%0.0
3-7St. Francis PA (179.0)NECH62-48W100%0.0
3-10Robert Morris (171.0)NECH63-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Francis NY's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Francis NY's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Francis NY.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. Francis NYNEC26.5826.5867.1067.109.099.09
Robert MorrisNEC5.585.5856.6756.670.740.74
St. Francis PANEC5.555.5555.5655.560.620.62
LIU BrooklynNEC5.475.4744.4444.44-0.61-0.61
BryantNEC4.124.1251.7251.720.140.14
WagnerNEC4.094.0933.3333.33-1.36-1.36
Mount St. Mary'sNEC4.084.0850.0050.000.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC4.054.0548.2848.28-0.14-0.14
Central ConnecticutNEC4.034.0317.2417.24-2.64-2.64
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC4.024.0226.9226.92-1.86-1.86
NJITind1.741.7454.1754.170.140.14
RutgersB101.721.7229.0329.03-0.72-0.72
MonmouthMAAC1.641.6456.2556.250.200.20
ColumbiaIvy1.621.6246.1546.15-0.12-0.12
Norfolk St.MEAC1.591.5956.6756.670.210.21
GeorgetownBE1.581.5866.6766.670.530.53
Delaware St.MEAC1.571.5746.8846.88-0.10-0.10
ArmyPat1.561.5646.4346.43-0.11-0.11
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.521.5226.9226.92-0.70-0.70
La SalleA101.521.5250.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth1.521.5214.8114.81-1.07-1.07
Tennessee St.OVC1.521.5210.7110.71-1.19-1.19
LafayettePat0.310.3161.2961.290.070.07
New HampshireAE0.270.2758.6258.620.050.05
HofstraCAA0.250.2560.6160.610.050.05
LehighPat0.230.2351.7251.720.010.01
AmericanPat0.230.2351.5251.520.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.230.2356.2556.250.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.220.2248.4848.48-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.210.2110.0010.00-0.17-0.17
St. John'sBE0.210.2164.5264.520.060.06
BrownIvy0.200.2037.9337.93-0.05-0.05
DelawareCAA0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
DuquesneA100.200.2036.6736.67-0.05-0.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.200.2047.0647.06-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.180.1866.6766.670.060.06
PennIvy0.180.1832.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
MarylandB100.170.1781.8281.820.110.11
PrincetonIvy0.160.1651.7251.720.010.01
NavyPat0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ColgatePat0.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
AlbanyAE0.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
DartmouthIvy0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
HarvardIvy0.130.1374.0774.070.060.06
FIUCUSA0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Holy CrossPat0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
CampbellBSth0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
ConnecticutAmer0.130.1358.8258.820.020.02
HowardMEAC0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
TempleAmer0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
UMass LowellAE0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
VillanovaBE0.100.1094.1294.120.090.09
VermontAE0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
HartfordAE0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
VirginiaACC0.100.1090.6290.620.080.08
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
IonaMAAC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
MarquetteBE0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
RadfordBSth0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
MichiganB100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
TexasB120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
CreightonBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
MaristMAAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0775.8675.860.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
BradleyMVC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
FordhamA100.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.070.0768.5768.570.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
ToledoMAC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
DenverSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
WisconsinB100.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.020.02
DaytonA100.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
USCP120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
IllinoisB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
IowaB100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
NebraskaB100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
OregonP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
VCUA100.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01