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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


St. Francis NY

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:284.4
Current RPI:288
Expected SOS:336
Current SOS:335
Current Record:10-15
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:7-6
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-11
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:309
Expected OOC SOS:308



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-15254.06.94%
14-16271.127.78%
13-17286.235.75%
12-18298.922.36%
11-19310.66.45%
10-20321.50.71%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Francis NY.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Boston College (233.1)ACCA75-49L0%0.0
11-21Saint Louis (209.1)A10A76-60L0%0.0
11-24Louisville (18.1)ACCA85-41L0%0.0
11-28North Florida (151.9)ASunN65-78L0%0.0
11-29Hartford (319.5)AEA67-74W100%0.0
12-2Lafayette (323.0)PatA62-69W100%0.0
12-6St. John's (232.9)BEA63-56L0%0.0
12-10NJIT (184.6)ASunH86-92L0%0.0
12-14Manhattan (226.8)MAACA71-60L0%0.0
12-20Liberty (264.2)BSthH64-55W100%0.0
12-23Saint Peter's (221.5)MAACA56-45L0%0.0
12-29Albany (96.6)AEH66-71L0%0.0
1-2Fairleigh Dickinson (214.3)NECA86-77L0%0.0
1-4Mount St. Mary's (229.3)NECA44-40L0%0.0
1-7St. Francis PA (226.7)NECH73-56W100%0.0
1-9Robert Morris (306.1)NECH56-49W100%0.0
1-14Bryant (320.9)NECA61-59L0%0.0
1-16Sacred Heart (280.0)NECH85-67W100%0.0
1-21Wagner (201.8)NECH59-83L0%0.0
1-23LIU Brooklyn (276.9)NECA49-64W100%0.0
1-28Wagner (201.8)NECA64-61L0%0.0
1-30Central Connecticut (350.6)NECA49-60W100%0.0
2-4Sacred Heart (280.0)NECA74-70L0%0.0
2-6Fairleigh Dickinson (214.3)NECH85-71W100%0.0
2-11Central Connecticut (350.6)NECH74-67W100%0.0
2-15LIU Brooklyn (276.9)NECH0-063%3.6
2-18St. Francis PA (226.7)NECA0-037%-3.5
2-20Robert Morris (306.1)NECH0-070%5.7
2-25Bryant (320.9)NECH0-080%9.3
2-27Mount St. Mary's (229.3)NECH0-054%1.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Francis NY's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Francis NY's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Francis NY.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. Francis NYNEC26.3926.3743.8144.67-3.27-2.81
Sacred HeartNEC4.714.3031.8235.29-1.71-1.27
Central ConnecticutNEC4.664.3013.6414.25-3.39-3.08
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC4.674.3052.3854.030.220.35
St. Francis PANEC2.834.3054.5553.420.260.29
WagnerNEC4.664.2757.1459.640.670.82
Mount St. Mary'sNEC2.754.2540.0044.26-0.55-0.49
Robert MorrisNEC2.714.2528.0029.54-1.19-1.74
BryantNEC2.754.2520.8322.42-1.61-2.34
LIU BrooklynNEC2.804.2552.1753.710.120.32
HartfordAE2.381.9525.0025.40-1.19-0.96
NJITASun2.211.8754.1754.050.180.15
LafayettePat2.251.8421.7422.45-1.27-1.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC2.171.8140.9142.17-0.39-0.28
AlbanyAE2.121.8172.0072.860.930.83
North FloridaASun2.171.8160.8762.780.470.46
LouisvilleACC2.171.7878.2675.201.220.90
St. John'sBE2.131.7521.7420.79-1.20-1.03
Saint LouisA102.121.7531.8230.06-0.77-0.70
Boston CollegeACC2.121.7526.0924.24-1.02-0.90
ManhattanMAAC2.001.7042.8641.07-0.29-0.30
LibertyBSth2.001.6736.3637.90-0.55-0.40
UMass LowellAE0.500.4037.5037.68-0.12-0.10
MaineAE0.330.3132.0031.17-0.12-0.12
FordhamA100.340.2952.3850.690.020.00
BinghamtonAE0.320.2824.0026.42-0.17-0.13
NiagaraMAAC0.340.2623.0823.85-0.18-0.14
YaleIvy0.330.2575.0075.100.160.13
FairfieldMAAC0.300.2454.1754.100.030.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.250.2334.7834.94-0.08-0.07
AmericanPat0.210.2329.1731.18-0.09-0.09
LehighPat0.160.2239.1342.83-0.04-0.03
UMBCAE0.240.2223.0825.89-0.13-0.11
RiderMAAC0.260.2138.4641.36-0.06-0.04
SienaMAAC0.260.2065.3864.920.080.06
BucknellPat0.160.1952.1754.970.010.02
ProvidenceBE0.200.1972.0069.130.090.07
New HampshireAE0.200.1959.0956.880.040.03
MonmouthMAAC0.180.1880.7781.890.110.11
ArmyPat0.210.1754.1754.290.020.01
Holy CrossPat0.250.1741.6739.59-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.170.1770.8367.910.070.06
DuquesneA100.170.1760.8756.270.040.02
Loyola MDPat0.160.1733.3335.19-0.05-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.220.1573.6875.880.100.08
MaristMAAC0.170.1521.7424.25-0.10-0.08
George MasonA100.180.1433.3333.62-0.06-0.05
Seton HallBE0.170.1470.8368.090.070.05
RutgersB100.210.1421.7420.33-0.12-0.09
Kennesaw St.ASun0.210.1425.0026.38-0.10-0.07
BrownIvy0.170.1430.0030.54-0.07-0.06
DartmouthIvy0.120.1430.0031.18-0.05-0.05
PennIvy0.160.1436.8437.30-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.160.1482.6183.030.100.09
DukeACC0.120.1475.0071.810.060.06
CanisiusMAAC0.130.1242.3144.49-0.02-0.01
IonaMAAC0.130.1260.8760.730.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.1250.0052.880.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.080.1247.8348.57-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.120.1228.0030.50-0.05-0.05
StetsonASun0.160.1222.7327.37-0.09-0.05
TowsonCAA0.170.1262.5057.720.040.02
USC UpstateASun0.080.1221.7422.42-0.05-0.06
VCUA100.130.1270.8371.030.050.05
VillanovaBE0.130.1287.5086.850.100.08
ConnecticutAmer0.170.1170.8370.130.070.05
Boston UniversityPat0.160.1156.0056.500.020.01
MarylandB100.080.1187.5083.680.060.08
ColumbiaIvy0.120.1168.1865.570.050.03
GeorgetownBE0.120.1156.0052.860.010.01
VermontAE0.120.1152.0054.840.000.01
SyracuseACC0.080.1168.0064.070.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.0919.0525.89-0.08-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.080.0965.2260.710.030.02
FIUCUSA0.080.0939.1342.98-0.02-0.01
DelawareCAA0.130.0925.0024.91-0.06-0.04
CornellIvy0.120.0940.0039.00-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.130.0975.0071.980.060.04
DaytonA100.090.0987.5083.730.060.06
ColgatePat0.080.0943.4844.88-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0955.5652.480.010.00
MassachusettsA100.090.0943.4842.42-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.080.0856.0054.430.010.01
KentuckySEC0.120.0875.0072.620.060.04
HarvardIvy0.080.0838.1039.12-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.040.0858.3358.410.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.040.0854.1751.980.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.120.0883.3378.390.080.05
VirginiaACC0.080.0883.3378.460.060.05
PittsburghACC0.080.0872.7367.600.040.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0627.2727.81-0.04-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.040.0643.4845.20-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.090.0657.1459.870.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.040.0621.7424.59-0.02-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0629.1733.75-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.040.0623.8125.48-0.02-0.03
RadfordBSth0.040.0652.1754.090.000.00
TempleAmer0.090.0665.2262.360.030.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.040.0662.5063.450.010.02
WinthropBSth0.090.0666.6763.790.030.02
HofstraCAA0.080.0666.6766.780.030.02
NavyPat0.040.0664.0064.470.010.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.040.0625.0033.24-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.080.0664.0062.090.020.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.040.0645.0049.16-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0640.0043.21-0.02-0.01
La SalleA100.040.0619.0520.30-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.080.0620.0019.72-0.05-0.03
ButlerBE0.080.0670.8368.990.030.02
CreightonBE0.040.0664.0062.070.010.01
DePaulBE0.000.0633.3334.02-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.080.0664.0057.890.020.01
MichiganB100.040.0670.8366.750.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.040.069.0917.13-0.03-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.040.0672.7370.390.020.02
XavierBE0.080.0687.5081.840.060.04
Air ForceMWC0.040.0543.4837.80-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.040.0572.0071.570.020.02
ElonCAA0.040.0550.0050.080.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.080.0566.6763.330.030.01
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0559.0955.160.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.040.0579.1777.510.020.03
James MadisonCAA0.040.0572.0071.330.020.02
Miami FLACC0.040.0582.6177.600.030.03
Michigan St.B100.080.0580.0081.550.050.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0520.0022.24-0.02-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.040.0565.2268.610.010.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0550.0048.970.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.040.0565.3865.500.010.02
Ohio St.B100.040.0560.0055.570.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0565.2264.330.010.02
Virginia TechACC0.040.0552.0048.910.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.040.0541.6739.90-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.040.0562.5060.140.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0530.4332.24-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.040.0325.0028.14-0.02-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.040.0350.0052.940.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0340.0042.85-0.01-0.00
CampbellBSth0.040.0331.8232.07-0.02-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.040.0357.1457.670.010.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0350.0049.320.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.040.0325.0025.09-0.02-0.01
IllinoisB100.040.0345.8344.06-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.040.0330.0029.17-0.02-0.01
LSUSEC0.040.0362.5059.070.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0358.3359.310.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0381.8281.780.030.02
TulaneAmer0.040.0336.0034.84-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.040.0314.2915.47-0.03-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0331.8232.68-0.02-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.040.0368.1867.120.020.01
USCP120.040.0375.0071.140.020.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.0336.8442.87-0.01-0.00
DavidsonA100.040.0361.9058.180.010.00
IndianaB100.040.0380.0075.690.020.01
Indiana St.MVC0.040.0350.0049.490.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.040.0358.3356.290.010.00
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0352.1753.440.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.040.0356.0055.750.010.00
RichmondA100.040.0356.5255.820.010.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0383.3381.270.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0316.6719.49-0.03-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0386.9680.430.030.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.040.0373.0872.610.020.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.040.0350.0050.500.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0358.3359.970.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.040.0373.9176.700.020.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0383.3382.090.030.02
Penn St.B100.040.0350.0046.760.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.040.0340.0041.68-0.01-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.040.0333.3332.04-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.040.0369.5770.020.020.01
UMKCWAC0.040.0328.5732.73-0.02-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.040.0333.3334.95-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0345.4546.07-0.00-0.00