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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


St. Francis NY

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:314.7
Current RPI:254
Expected SOS:304
Current SOS:172
Current Record:1-5
Expected Record:9-21
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-12
Current OOC Record:1-5
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:318
Expected OOC SOS:288



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-12174.70.03%
17-13192.20.04%
16-14207.50.11%
15-15221.40.50%
14-16243.41.40%
13-17262.02.86%
12-18278.26.28%
11-19293.310.86%
10-20306.814.80%
9-21317.817.34%
8-22326.317.18%
7-23333.313.24%
6-24338.88.90%
5-25342.44.53%
4-26345.21.48%
3-27347.40.36%
2-28348.60.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Francis NY.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13North Carolina St. (109.3)ACCA86-61L0%0.0
11-15Virginia (4.7)ACCA72-32L0%0.0
11-21Providence (75.1)BEA64-48L0%0.0
11-25Savannah St. (339.8)MEACN97-91W100%0.0
11-26UT Rio Grande Valley (299.3)WACN71-61L0%0.0
11-30Brown (272.3)IvyA81-71L0%0.0
12-3Army (208.3)PatA0-017%-11.5
12-5Lafayette (279.9)PatH0-051%0.3
12-10Canisius (211.7)MAACA0-019%-10.5
12-17Albany (156.7)AEA0-012%-14.1
12-20Manhattan (234.2)MAACH0-042%-2.5
12-23Saint Peter's (178.9)MAACH0-027%-7.3
12-29Bryant (194.6)NECH0-036%-4.4
12-31Central Connecticut (293.0)NECH0-053%0.8
1-5St. Francis PA (251.0)NECA0-027%-7.5
1-7Robert Morris (246.0)NECA0-025%-8.1
1-12Sacred Heart (299.9)NECH0-058%2.3
1-14LIU Brooklyn (214.2)NECA0-022%-9.4
1-19Fairleigh Dickinson (267.1)NECA0-030%-6.3
1-21Mount St. Mary's (168.7)NECH0-032%-5.7
1-26Fairleigh Dickinson (267.1)NECH0-050%-0.1
1-28Wagner (204.5)NECA0-016%-11.7
2-2St. Francis PA (251.0)NECH0-046%-1.3
2-4Robert Morris (246.0)NECH0-044%-1.9
2-9Sacred Heart (299.9)NECA0-037%-3.9
2-11Bryant (194.6)NECA0-019%-10.5
2-15LIU Brooklyn (214.2)NECH0-039%-3.2
2-18Wagner (204.5)NECH0-032%-5.5
2-23Central Connecticut (293.0)NECA0-033%-5.3
2-25Mount St. Mary's (168.7)NECA0-016%-11.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Francis NY's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Francis NY's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Francis NY.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. Francis NYNEC28.4226.3622.7329.67-15.50-10.72
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.004.2920.0032.23-0.00-1.53
Sacred HeartNEC0.004.2842.8637.04-0.00-1.11
Robert MorrisNEC0.004.2725.0037.46-0.00-1.07
BryantNEC0.524.2728.5748.60-0.22-0.12
Central ConnecticutNEC0.004.2740.0036.20-0.00-1.18
WagnerNEC0.004.2633.3352.11-0.000.18
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.004.2512.5047.11-0.00-0.25
LIU BrooklynNEC0.004.2483.3357.160.000.61
St. Francis PANEC0.004.2440.0042.32-0.00-0.65
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.001.8660.0052.070.000.08
BrownIvy8.331.8342.8640.29-1.19-0.36
LafayettePat0.001.8133.3331.23-0.00-0.68
CanisiusMAAC0.001.8033.3340.20-0.00-0.35
ProvidenceBE8.931.7966.6754.822.980.17
ArmyPat0.001.7933.3344.25-0.00-0.21
ManhattanMAAC0.001.7833.3337.52-0.00-0.44
VirginiaACC8.931.77100.0081.948.931.13
AlbanyAE0.521.7250.0059.430.000.33
North Carolina St.ACC8.331.6966.6748.922.78-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC8.331.670.0025.12-8.33-0.83
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC8.331.6714.2921.48-5.95-0.95
FairfieldMAAC0.000.3383.3362.080.000.08
UMass LowellAE0.000.2825.0040.81-0.00-0.05
LehighPat0.000.2833.3367.01-0.000.10
YaleIvy0.600.2833.3364.14-0.200.08
Boston UniversityPat0.000.2550.0053.530.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.2571.4371.570.000.11
RiderMAAC0.000.2550.0047.990.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.2575.0067.660.000.09
NiagaraMAAC0.520.2516.6727.03-0.35-0.11
AmericanPat0.000.2416.6735.65-0.00-0.07
Loyola MDPat0.000.2333.3340.49-0.00-0.04
FordhamA100.000.2357.1443.680.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.2316.6725.61-0.00-0.11
IonaMAAC0.000.2260.0070.140.000.09
HartfordAE0.000.2212.5022.55-0.00-0.12
MaristMAAC0.520.2242.8635.68-0.07-0.06
BinghamtonAE0.000.2042.8640.94-0.00-0.04
PennIvy0.000.2040.0057.97-0.000.03
Holy CrossPat0.000.2042.8647.69-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.2037.5034.65-0.00-0.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1916.6734.31-0.00-0.06
SienaMAAC0.000.1928.5750.51-0.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.520.1816.6737.09-0.35-0.05
NavyPat0.000.1728.5743.62-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.1771.4354.520.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.170.0023.47-0.00-0.09
Stony BrookAE0.000.1416.6733.82-0.00-0.05
ColgatePat0.000.1420.0041.31-0.00-0.03
New HampshireAE0.600.1450.0057.480.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.14100.0075.010.000.07
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1450.0027.250.00-0.06
NJITASun0.000.1242.8650.32-0.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.520.1285.7180.960.370.07
CornellIvy0.000.1228.5730.63-0.00-0.05
RutgersB100.000.1283.3344.770.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1242.8642.47-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.120.0034.18-0.00-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.120.0038.35-0.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC2.310.1228.5734.18-0.99-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.000.1266.6770.740.000.05
HarvardIvy0.000.120.0043.04-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B101.190.1185.7172.660.850.05
MarquetteBE0.000.1171.4363.090.000.03
TowsonCAA0.000.1150.0054.490.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.11100.0083.120.000.07
MinnesotaB100.000.1185.7165.670.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.1185.7180.010.000.07
St. John'sBE0.000.1128.5733.92-0.00-0.04
UMBCAE0.000.1180.0055.340.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.1183.3380.550.000.07
DePaulBE0.000.1180.0035.960.00-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0925.0063.95-0.000.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0983.3358.080.000.01
IowaB101.710.0942.8644.33-0.24-0.01
MemphisAmer1.710.0985.7159.741.220.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0950.0056.260.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.0914.2933.07-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0966.6775.370.000.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.080.0018.22-0.00-0.05
Iowa St.B120.600.0871.4368.970.260.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.0885.7175.950.000.04
PittsburghACC0.000.0885.7155.550.000.01
VermontAE0.600.0862.5071.630.150.04
Virginia TechACC0.000.0885.7162.920.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0866.6739.720.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0871.4365.740.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0871.4352.370.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0885.7162.410.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0840.0050.91-0.000.00
CreightonBE0.600.08100.0076.650.600.04
HofstraCAA0.000.0857.1440.550.00-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0842.8637.60-0.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3338.76-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.77-0.00-0.03
OregonP120.000.0671.4366.730.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0650.0059.670.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0017.30-0.00-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.000.0625.0024.66-0.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0671.4368.100.000.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0620.0042.63-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6766.100.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.040.06100.0069.771.040.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0671.4356.050.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0660.0058.950.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB1.190.0650.0045.410.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.520.0671.4370.330.220.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.600.0650.0046.780.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.520.0675.0054.320.260.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6751.460.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0091.060.000.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.060.0037.92-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0620.0032.60-0.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0657.1448.240.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0671.4366.220.000.02
OhioMAC0.000.0680.0068.320.000.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0566.6753.460.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0587.5078.680.000.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0566.6770.140.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.0585.7170.990.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0583.3362.840.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.05100.0075.690.000.03
George MasonA100.000.0557.1442.940.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0550.0047.560.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0585.7155.890.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0571.4366.530.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0516.6740.71-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0583.3378.430.000.03
RichmondA100.000.0557.1448.600.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0537.5036.24-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0550.0046.670.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0583.3370.360.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0557.1464.940.000.02
XavierBE0.000.05100.0074.800.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3380.700.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.23-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.32-0.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0328.5723.76-0.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.600.0375.0074.990.300.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0340.0055.44-0.000.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0342.8636.82-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0383.3376.370.000.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0360.0043.970.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0314.2931.71-0.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0360.0057.170.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0325.0040.37-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.520.0350.0038.430.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.310.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0042.710.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0385.7168.390.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0314.2929.15-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0383.3363.610.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0375.0047.510.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.0383.3358.030.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.51-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0385.7156.490.000.00
Penn St.B100.000.0362.5043.960.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0357.1469.300.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.600.0366.6758.420.200.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0320.0036.00-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0316.6730.27-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0019.51-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8646.78-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.600.0357.1442.660.09-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0086.250.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.600.0366.6754.420.200.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0020.01-0.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.600.0314.2947.44-0.43-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.0371.4363.570.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0360.0070.500.000.01