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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


St. Francis NY

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:190.0
Current RPI:190
Expected SOS:283
Current SOS:283
Current Record:17-14
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:9-8
Expected Conf Record:9-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-5
Current OOC Record:8-6
Expected OOC Record:8-6
Expected OOC RPI:104
Expected OOC SOS:191



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-14190.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Francis NY.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Miami FL (110.0)ACCA62-66W100%0.0
11-11Florida Atlantic (270.0)CUSAA57-59W100%0.0
11-16Dayton (43.0)A10A78-58L0%0.0
11-18Syracuse (16.0)ACCA56-50L0%0.0
11-23Coastal Carolina (196.0)BSthA70-59L0%0.0
11-24Oakland (181.0)HorzN62-68W100%0.0
12-1Stony Brook (165.0)AEA68-70W100%0.0
12-7Army (235.0)PatA67-54L0%0.0
12-10Monmouth (292.0)MAACH58-73L0%0.0
12-14Canisius (96.0)MAACH67-51W100%0.0
12-19Lafayette (258.0)PatH65-62W100%0.0
12-23NJIT (308.0)indH77-65W100%0.0
12-30Delaware St. (329.0)MEACA57-60W100%0.0
1-4Columbia (130.0)IvyA81-61L0%0.0
1-9LIU Brooklyn (297.0)NECH78-64W100%0.0
1-11Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECA88-82L0%0.0
1-16Central Connecticut (293.0)NECA66-76W100%0.0
1-18Sacred Heart (338.0)NECH74-71W100%0.0
1-23Fairleigh Dickinson (269.0)NECA86-85L0%0.0
1-25Bryant (177.0)NECA83-79L0%0.0
1-29Sacred Heart (338.0)NECA78-83W100%0.0
2-1Wagner (218.0)NECH73-72W100%0.0
2-6St. Francis PA (298.0)NECH78-52W100%0.0
2-8Robert Morris (129.0)NECH50-72L0%0.0
2-16LIU Brooklyn (297.0)NECN69-68L0%0.0
2-18Central Connecticut (293.0)NECH71-73L0%0.0
2-20St. Francis PA (298.0)NECA44-73W100%0.0
2-22Robert Morris (129.0)NECA71-70L0%0.0
2-27Bryant (177.0)NECH62-59W100%0.0
3-1Fairleigh Dickinson (269.0)NECH79-56W100%0.0
3-5Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECA72-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Francis NY's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Francis NY's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Francis NY.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. Francis NYNEC26.2426.2459.1259.124.794.79
Robert MorrisNEC4.134.1359.3859.380.770.77
St. Francis PANEC4.074.0734.4834.48-1.26-1.26
Mount St. Mary'sNEC4.044.0446.6746.67-0.27-0.27
Central ConnecticutNEC4.024.0233.3333.33-1.34-1.34
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC4.014.0129.6329.63-1.63-1.63
BryantNEC3.993.9955.1755.170.410.41
Sacred HeartNEC3.943.9417.2417.24-2.58-2.58
LIU BrooklynNEC3.933.9329.6329.63-1.60-1.60
WagnerNEC2.562.5662.0762.070.620.62
NJITind1.861.8637.5037.50-0.46-0.46
LafayettePat1.831.8334.4834.48-0.57-0.57
ArmyPat1.731.7344.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Coastal CarolinaBSth1.721.7258.6258.620.300.30
Stony BrookAE1.721.7270.9770.970.720.72
ColumbiaIvy1.721.7258.6258.620.300.30
DaytonA101.691.6968.7568.750.640.64
MonmouthMAAC1.691.6932.2632.26-0.60-0.60
Delaware St.MEAC1.671.6725.9325.93-0.80-0.80
CanisiusMAAC1.661.6667.7467.740.590.59
Miami FLACC1.661.6653.1253.120.100.10
SyracuseACC1.661.6683.8783.871.131.13
OaklandHorz1.661.6636.6736.67-0.44-0.44
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.641.6427.5927.59-0.73-0.73
LehighPat0.320.3243.7543.75-0.04-0.04
HofstraCAA0.280.2830.3030.30-0.11-0.11
BucknellPat0.260.2653.3353.330.020.02
New HampshireAE0.240.2417.2417.24-0.16-0.16
YaleIvy0.240.2451.8551.850.010.01
HartfordAE0.240.2451.5251.520.010.01
AmericanPat0.240.2462.5062.500.060.06
Loyola MDPat0.230.2334.4834.48-0.07-0.07
Holy CrossPat0.220.2259.3859.380.040.04
Boston UniversityPat0.220.2270.5970.590.090.09
Norfolk St.MEAC0.210.2153.3353.330.010.01
BrownIvy0.210.2151.8551.850.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.210.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.210.2140.0040.00-0.04-0.04
NavyPat0.210.2127.5927.59-0.09-0.09
RiderMAAC0.210.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.200.2032.2632.26-0.07-0.07
BinghamtonAE0.200.2023.3323.33-0.11-0.11
Seton HallBE0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.170.1717.8617.86-0.11-0.11
MaineAE0.170.1717.8617.86-0.11-0.11
PennIvy0.160.1628.5728.57-0.07-0.07
CornellIvy0.160.163.703.70-0.14-0.14
DuquesneA100.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.160.1673.5373.530.070.07
Notre DameACC0.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.150.1522.5822.58-0.08-0.08
FairfieldMAAC0.150.1521.8821.88-0.09-0.09
IonaMAAC0.150.1568.7568.750.060.06
UMass LowellAE0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
AlbanyAE0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.140.1470.3770.370.060.06
HarvardIvy0.130.1386.2186.210.100.10
IndianaB100.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
VermontAE0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
MaristMAAC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
RutgersAmer0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
DartmouthIvy0.110.1138.4638.46-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
WinthropBSth0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
St. John'sBE0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
DetroitHorz0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
CampbellBSth0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.100.1087.5087.500.080.08
GonzagaWCC0.100.1081.8281.820.070.07
DukeACC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
BuffaloMAC0.100.1064.2964.290.030.03
La SalleA100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1021.2121.21-0.06-0.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
UMBCAE0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0983.8783.870.060.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
NortheasternCAA0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
ElonSC0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
UICHorz0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
RadfordBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
George WashingtonA100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
MarylandACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
George MasonA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
CaliforniaP120.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
PittsburghACC0.070.0773.5373.530.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
TulaneCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.060.0688.2488.240.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
PurdueB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
TempleAmer0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VMIBSth0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
BaylorB120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
NebraskaB100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
USCP120.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01