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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


St. Francis NY

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:348.0
Current RPI:348
Expected SOS:323
Current SOS:323
Current Record:3-27
Expected Record:3-27
Current Conf Record:2-16
Expected Conf Record:2-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-19
Current OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC RPI:341
Expected OOC SOS:278



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
3-27348.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Francis NY.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13North Carolina St. (141.0)ACCA86-61L0%0.0
11-15Virginia (18.0)ACCA72-32L0%0.0
11-21Providence (56.0)BEA64-48L0%0.0
11-25Savannah St. (279.0)MEACN97-91W100%0.0
11-26UT Rio Grande Valley (319.0)WACN71-61L0%0.0
11-30Brown (284.0)IvyA81-71L0%0.0
12-3Army (266.0)PatA76-56L0%0.0
12-5Lafayette (321.0)PatH72-74L0%0.0
12-10Canisius (171.0)MAACA91-81L0%0.0
12-17Albany (129.0)AEA87-60L0%0.0
12-20Manhattan (263.0)MAACH54-61L0%0.0
12-23Saint Peter's (130.0)MAACH58-65L0%0.0
12-29Bryant (285.0)NECH80-77W100%0.0
12-31Central Connecticut (344.0)NECH86-77W100%0.0
1-5St. Francis PA (258.0)NECA81-56L0%0.0
1-7Robert Morris (237.0)NECA62-58L0%0.0
1-12Sacred Heart (304.0)NECH75-87L0%0.0
1-14LIU Brooklyn (224.0)NECA63-58L0%0.0
1-19Fairleigh Dickinson (273.0)NECA57-40L0%0.0
1-21Mount St. Mary's (151.0)NECH47-55L0%0.0
1-26Fairleigh Dickinson (273.0)NECH73-79L0%0.0
1-28Wagner (244.0)NECA66-64L0%0.0
2-2St. Francis PA (258.0)NECH61-78L0%0.0
2-4Robert Morris (237.0)NECH54-78L0%0.0
2-9Sacred Heart (304.0)NECA80-65L0%0.0
2-11Bryant (285.0)NECA80-69L0%0.0
2-15LIU Brooklyn (224.0)NECH45-82L0%0.0
2-18Wagner (244.0)NECH55-73L0%0.0
2-23Central Connecticut (344.0)NECA62-53L0%0.0
2-25Mount St. Mary's (151.0)NECA77-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Francis NY's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Francis NY's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Francis NY.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. Francis NYNEC26.3026.308.218.21-21.98-21.98
Mount St. Mary'sNEC4.364.3653.1253.120.270.27
St. Francis PANEC4.364.3644.8344.83-0.45-0.45
Robert MorrisNEC4.334.3338.7138.71-0.98-0.98
WagnerNEC4.334.3348.1548.15-0.16-0.16
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC4.304.3029.6329.63-1.75-1.75
BryantNEC4.284.2834.4834.48-1.33-1.33
Sacred HeartNEC4.284.2836.6736.67-1.14-1.14
LIU BrooklynNEC4.254.2558.6258.620.730.73
Central ConnecticutNEC4.224.2218.5218.52-2.66-2.66
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.881.8858.0658.060.300.30
BrownIvy1.831.8337.0437.04-0.47-0.47
CanisiusMAAC1.821.8253.1253.120.110.11
LafayettePat1.801.8025.0025.00-0.90-0.90
ArmyPat1.781.7836.6736.67-0.48-0.48
ProvidenceBE1.781.7861.2961.290.400.40
ManhattanMAAC1.771.7729.0329.03-0.74-0.74
VirginiaACC1.771.7767.7467.740.630.63
AlbanyAE1.721.7259.3859.380.320.32
North Carolina St.ACC1.691.6945.1645.16-0.16-0.16
Savannah St.MEAC1.671.6742.3142.31-0.26-0.26
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.671.6721.4321.43-0.95-0.95
FairfieldMAAC0.320.3253.3353.330.020.02
YaleIvy0.270.2760.7160.710.060.06
UMass LowellAE0.270.2733.3333.33-0.09-0.09
LehighPat0.260.2661.2961.290.060.06
RiderMAAC0.260.2654.5554.550.020.02
BucknellPat0.260.2676.4776.470.140.14
AmericanPat0.250.2526.6726.67-0.12-0.12
Loyola MDPat0.240.2446.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.240.2454.8454.840.020.02
HartfordAE0.240.2428.1228.12-0.10-0.10
MonmouthMAAC0.240.2481.8281.820.150.15
NiagaraMAAC0.240.2430.3030.30-0.09-0.09
IonaMAAC0.240.2464.7164.710.070.07
MaristMAAC0.230.2325.0025.00-0.12-0.12
FordhamA100.220.2238.7138.71-0.05-0.05
MaineAE0.220.2219.3519.35-0.13-0.13
PennIvy0.200.2046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.190.1931.0331.03-0.07-0.07
Holy CrossPat0.190.1946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.190.1931.2531.25-0.07-0.07
QuinnipiacMAAC0.180.1832.2632.26-0.07-0.07
SienaMAAC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.180.1844.8344.83-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.170.1725.9325.93-0.08-0.08
Seton HallBE0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
NavyPat0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.160.1658.0658.060.030.03
Notre DameACC0.160.1673.5373.530.070.07
ColgatePat0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
New HampshireAE0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1328.1228.12-0.06-0.06
RutgersB100.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
HarvardIvy0.110.1161.5461.540.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
NJITASun0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.110.1138.4638.46-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
TowsonCAA0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
VillanovaBE0.110.1191.1891.180.090.09
St. BonaventureA100.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
MarquetteBE0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
St. John'sBE0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
PittsburghACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
DePaulBE0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
VermontAE0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
West VirginiaB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
UMBCAE0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.090.0978.5778.570.050.05
UMKCWAC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
IowaB100.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
LipscombASun0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
MassachusettsA100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
ClemsonACC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
HofstraCAA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Miami FLACC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
SeattleWAC0.060.0637.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.050.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02