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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Sam Houston St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:221.0
Current RPI:255
Expected SOS:275
Current SOS:322
Current Record:7-9
Expected Record:13-14
Current Conf Record:5-2
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-4
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:270
Expected OOC SOS:128



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-9126.00.09%
17-10150.91.17%
16-11171.65.22%
15-12190.713.98%
14-13209.023.66%
13-14226.025.44%
12-15242.217.86%
11-16258.68.92%
10-17275.52.87%
9-18292.00.72%
8-19303.20.05%
7-20328.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sam Houston St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Idaho (146.3)BSkyA63-54L0%0.0
11-22Central Michigan (146.9)MACN60-71L0%0.0
11-23College of Charleston (108.4)CAAN49-59L0%0.0
11-25Santa Clara (259.3)WCCN59-73W100%0.0
12-4Baylor (58.6)B12A84-56L0%0.0
12-13Mississippi (116.0)SECA82-69L0%0.0
12-15Little Rock (293.5)SBH57-55W100%0.0
12-19LSU (102.7)SECA80-58L0%0.0
12-22Utah Valley (84.6)WACH64-75L0%0.0
12-30Abilene Christian (227.7)SlndA75-72L0%0.0
1-3Central Arkansas (237.0)SlndH82-76W100%0.0
1-6Incarnate Word (338.0)SlndA74-85W100%0.0
1-10Texas A&M Corpus Chris (335.5)SlndA50-82W100%0.0
1-13Houston Baptist (334.4)SlndH81-68W100%0.0
1-17Northwestern St. (338.0)SlndH75-52W100%0.0
1-20Lamar (226.9)SlndA84-77L0%0.0
1-24Southeastern Louisiana (205.0)SlndH0-066%4.7
1-27Stephen F. Austin (123.5)SlndA0-022%-8.6
1-30McNeese St. (297.1)SlndA0-065%4.2
2-3Abilene Christian (227.7)SlndH0-070%5.7
2-7Texas A&M Corpus Chris (335.5)SlndH0-082%10.0
2-10Lamar (226.9)SlndH0-061%3.0
2-14Nicholls St. (200.2)SlndA0-044%-1.7
2-17Houston Baptist (334.4)SlndA0-065%4.2
2-21New Orleans (218.0)SlndH0-069%5.5
2-28Central Arkansas (237.0)SlndA0-041%-2.5
3-3Stephen F. Austin (123.5)SlndH0-042%-2.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sam Houston St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Sam Houston St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Sam Houston St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Sam Houston St.Slnd26.5026.3246.9750.71-1.610.37
Central ArkansasSlnd3.824.6047.3750.72-0.200.07
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd3.584.598.3324.51-2.98-2.34
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.414.5680.0079.730.252.71
LamarSlnd3.544.5446.6753.72-0.240.34
Abilene ChristianSlnd3.414.5350.0051.640.000.15
Houston BaptistSlnd3.314.516.2519.48-2.90-2.76
Incarnate WordSlnd3.302.828.3320.96-2.75-1.64
Nicholls St.Slnd0.612.7450.0051.200.000.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.472.7252.9455.830.030.32
McNeese St.Slnd0.422.7128.5731.09-0.18-1.03
Northwestern St.Slnd3.342.717.6915.44-2.82-1.87
New OrleansSlnd0.602.6937.5045.81-0.15-0.23
BaylorB123.321.9958.8254.580.590.18
Little RockSB3.281.9823.5326.15-1.74-0.94
MississippiSEC3.251.9650.0044.060.00-0.23
LSUSEC3.121.9558.8251.550.550.06
IdahoBSky3.211.9262.5065.620.800.60
Santa ClaraWCC3.221.8835.2934.16-0.95-0.60
Central MichiganMAC3.121.8560.0057.160.620.27
College of CharlestonCAA3.121.8564.7164.370.920.53
Utah ValleyWAC3.121.8564.7164.720.920.55
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.330.2545.0045.03-0.03-0.02
Texas St.SB0.390.2457.8950.210.060.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.470.2429.4133.20-0.19-0.08
Coastal CarolinaSB0.280.2327.7838.14-0.13-0.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.170.2383.3381.370.110.15
Louisiana MonroeSB0.200.2026.6729.04-0.09-0.08
Mississippi St.SEC0.170.1972.2258.920.080.03
UTSACUSA0.300.1741.1839.65-0.05-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.290.1766.6755.940.100.02
MissouriSEC0.000.1666.6763.200.000.04
VanderbiltSEC0.180.1636.8435.57-0.05-0.05
HoustonAmer0.210.1478.9572.990.120.07
Loyola MarymountWCC0.210.1427.7829.10-0.09-0.06
UMKCWAC0.300.1421.0524.75-0.18-0.07
LipscombASun0.180.1452.9459.340.010.03
RiceCUSA0.190.1411.1117.68-0.15-0.09
Arkansas St.SB0.180.1327.7831.11-0.08-0.05
Cal PolyBW0.360.1323.5328.21-0.19-0.06
Texas TechB120.180.1378.9571.810.100.06
TulsaAmer0.180.1355.0053.320.020.01
FloridaSEC0.200.1373.6871.560.100.06
TexasB120.200.1363.1657.630.050.02
Oklahoma St.B120.180.1368.4254.090.070.01
San FranciscoWCC0.160.1350.0048.730.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.250.1212.5025.45-0.19-0.06
Morehead St.OVC0.160.1223.5328.69-0.08-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.170.1268.4264.200.060.03
UTEPCUSA0.220.1133.3334.10-0.07-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.290.1080.9583.260.180.07
SeattleWAC0.000.1057.8954.500.000.01
UC DavisBW0.180.1058.8262.440.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.190.1058.8249.760.03-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.1070.0071.230.030.04
BYUWCC0.170.1080.9576.240.110.05
North DakotaBSky0.180.1029.4134.76-0.07-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.100.1044.4444.92-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.180.1011.1115.29-0.14-0.07
Portland St.BSky0.180.1058.8263.210.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.190.1037.5033.78-0.05-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.090.1052.9452.230.010.00
OklahomaB120.110.1077.7867.910.060.04
MemphisAmer0.170.1065.0058.540.050.02
San DiegoWCC0.090.1063.1657.540.020.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.170.1022.2227.33-0.10-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.170.1068.4257.740.060.01
KentuckySEC0.170.1073.6867.970.080.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.160.0927.7831.71-0.07-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.170.0966.6765.520.060.03
AlabamaSEC0.090.0968.4258.980.030.02
Texas A&MSEC0.170.0968.4263.960.060.03
AuburnSEC0.080.0989.4777.000.060.05
TennesseeSEC0.000.0972.2268.930.000.03
SMUAmer0.110.0770.0070.570.040.03
Air ForceMWC0.090.0737.5031.76-0.02-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.170.0756.2556.830.020.01
CampbellBSth0.090.0747.0647.41-0.01-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.090.070.003.07-0.09-0.06
DuquesneA100.100.0770.0058.090.040.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0710.0019.630.00-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.000.0716.6716.160.00-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0752.6355.290.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0783.3384.240.060.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.0755.5656.740.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0744.4450.310.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.0755.0052.470.010.00
USC UpstateASun0.090.0711.1118.00-0.07-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.000.0750.0045.870.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.090.0743.7540.93-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0763.1657.890.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.090.0756.2557.400.010.01
UtahP120.190.0763.1659.710.050.01
Ball St.MAC0.100.0761.1158.700.020.01
BelmontOVC0.090.0771.4374.660.040.03
DelawareCAA0.090.0747.3743.02-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.090.0721.0525.97-0.05-0.03
DrexelCAA0.090.0730.0030.99-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.0746.6746.97-0.01-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0738.8946.05-0.02-0.01
ElonCAA0.090.0752.6351.080.000.00
HofstraCAA0.090.0757.8959.490.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0725.0028.240.00-0.03
Michigan St.B100.090.0785.0083.200.060.04
Montana St.BSky0.100.0750.0047.660.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.180.0785.7182.090.130.04
NortheasternCAA0.090.0763.1663.220.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0758.8257.140.020.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0741.1839.160.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.100.0747.0648.41-0.01-0.00
PacificWCC0.000.0745.0044.470.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.090.0710.5318.34-0.07-0.04
PortlandWCC0.090.0727.7827.28-0.04-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.090.0770.0060.470.040.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0716.6724.45-0.06-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0790.4888.960.070.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0742.1146.09-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.100.0766.6767.700.030.02
TowsonCAA0.170.0763.1665.970.050.02
ValparaisoMVC0.090.0747.3748.77-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0764.7159.990.000.01
MichiganB100.180.0676.1970.740.100.03
Notre DameACC0.090.0663.1661.020.020.01
SamfordSC0.090.0627.7832.66-0.04-0.02
Wichita St.Amer0.170.0678.9577.380.100.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0633.3337.230.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.0666.6765.370.030.02
BradleyMVC0.170.0665.0057.880.050.01
CaliforniaP120.080.0636.8431.12-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.090.0661.1147.220.02-0.00
KansasB120.090.0684.2179.750.060.04
Kansas St.B120.000.0673.6862.720.000.02
OregonP120.080.0665.0063.850.020.02
TCUB120.090.0673.6865.600.040.02
UCLAP120.080.0665.0062.050.020.01
West VirginiaB120.090.0684.2178.170.060.03
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0661.1151.910.020.00
Colorado St.MWC0.110.0445.0041.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0443.7554.110.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0444.4446.650.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0440.0030.870.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0458.8262.820.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0461.9065.160.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0447.3742.160.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0461.1164.130.000.01
DukeACC0.090.0389.4785.210.070.02
HawaiiBW0.090.0368.7563.990.030.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0327.7827.100.00-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.090.0317.6523.86-0.06-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.0355.5655.540.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.0394.7490.310.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0368.4270.810.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0347.0644.910.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0330.0036.50-0.03-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0372.2274.930.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0323.5325.64-0.05-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0336.8444.110.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.090.0343.7549.23-0.01-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.0338.8943.43-0.02-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0347.0641.410.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0010.670.00-0.03
MontanaBSky0.000.0370.5973.150.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.090.0383.3381.430.060.02
San Jose St.MWC0.090.0311.7612.81-0.07-0.02
SienaMAAC0.090.0328.5729.94-0.04-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.0336.8432.76-0.03-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.0357.8953.190.020.00
UC IrvineBW0.090.0330.0039.93-0.04-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0368.4260.860.000.01
USCP120.090.0371.4368.280.040.01
Washington St.P120.090.0347.3741.44-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0338.8935.37-0.02-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0318.7536.82-0.05-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0330.0032.52-0.03-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0357.1460.410.010.01
TroySB0.000.0335.2942.760.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0360.0062.030.020.01
CreightonBE0.090.0375.0070.700.040.01
MarquetteBE0.090.0368.4260.550.030.01
North FloridaASun0.090.0331.5835.15-0.03-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0327.7834.50-0.04-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.090.0327.7840.97-0.04-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0326.3231.50-0.04-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0321.0544.26-0.05-0.00
WisconsinB100.090.0350.0046.300.00-0.00
XavierBE0.090.0385.7180.080.060.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0331.5832.72-0.03-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0347.3746.09-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0372.2274.710.040.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0372.2272.980.040.01