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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Sam Houston St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:224.0
Current RPI:224
Expected SOS:259
Current SOS:259
Current Record:14-17
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:10-11
Expected Conf Record:10-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-6
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:189
Expected OOC SOS:203



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-17224.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sam Houston St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Arkansas (89.0)SECA73-68L0%0.0
11-15Indiana (8.0)B10A99-45L0%0.0
11-19Southern Mississippi (31.0)CUSAH49-61L0%0.0
11-20Liberty (288.0)BSthH64-50W100%0.0
11-21UC Irvine (125.0)BWH65-63W100%0.0
11-27Texas (116.0)B12A65-37L0%0.0
12-1Northern Arizona (255.0)BSkyA77-60L0%0.0
12-8Houston Baptist (310.0)GWCA57-69W100%0.0
12-15Samford (291.0)SCA57-73W100%0.0
1-4Texas A&M Corpus Chris (323.0)SlndH61-57W100%0.0
1-7Northwestern St. (78.0)SlndH64-73L0%0.0
1-10Lamar (335.0)SlndA57-68W100%0.0
1-12McNeese St. (246.0)SlndA57-72W100%0.0
1-17Central Arkansas (286.0)SlndH63-52W100%0.0
1-19Oral Roberts (151.0)SlndH61-65L0%0.0
1-24Southeastern Louisiana (227.0)SlndA69-65L0%0.0
1-26Nicholls St. (296.0)SlndA70-67L0%0.0
2-2Texas A&M Corpus Chris (323.0)SlndA51-55W100%0.0
2-7McNeese St. (246.0)SlndH58-59L0%0.0
2-9Lamar (335.0)SlndH78-40W100%0.0
2-14Oral Roberts (151.0)SlndA74-64L0%0.0
2-16Central Arkansas (286.0)SlndA75-80W100%0.0
2-20Stephen F. Austin (65.0)SlndH44-50L0%0.0
2-23Eastern Washington (321.0)BSkyA81-76L0%0.0
2-28Nicholls St. (296.0)SlndH53-56L0%0.0
3-2Southeastern Louisiana (227.0)SlndH54-45W100%0.0
3-7Stephen F. Austin (65.0)SlndA57-42L0%0.0
3-9Northwestern St. (78.0)SlndA84-73L0%0.0
3-13Central Arkansas (286.0)SlndN69-63W100%0.0
3-14Oral Roberts (151.0)SlndN55-58W100%0.0
3-15Northwestern St. (78.0)SlndN55-52L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sam Houston St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Sam Houston St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Sam Houston St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Sam Houston St.Slnd26.6926.6947.6247.62-1.27-1.27
Northwestern St.Slnd5.935.9366.6766.671.981.98
Oral RobertsSlnd5.865.8653.5753.570.420.42
Central ArkansasSlnd5.855.8544.0044.00-0.70-0.70
Stephen F. AustinSlnd4.434.4384.0084.003.013.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd4.414.4137.0437.04-1.14-1.14
McNeese St.Slnd4.404.4038.4638.46-1.02-1.02
Nicholls St.Slnd4.364.3625.0025.00-2.18-2.18
LamarSlnd4.304.3010.3410.34-3.41-3.41
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd4.294.2919.2319.23-2.64-2.64
ArkansasSEC1.701.7058.0658.060.270.27
Northern ArizonaBSky1.661.6632.2632.26-0.59-0.59
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.661.6630.0030.00-0.67-0.67
UC IrvineBW1.661.6656.2556.250.210.21
LibertyBSth1.661.6638.7138.71-0.38-0.38
Southern MississippiCUSA1.661.6670.9770.970.700.70
Houston BaptistGWC1.611.6140.7440.74-0.30-0.30
IndianaB101.611.6181.2581.251.011.01
SamfordSC1.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
TexasB121.611.6148.3948.39-0.05-0.05
OklahomaB120.360.3664.5264.520.100.10
Texas A&MSEC0.290.2954.5554.550.030.03
Weber St.BSky0.230.2380.0080.000.140.14
Louisiana TechWAC0.230.2380.6580.650.140.14
Louisiana St.SEC0.230.2361.2961.290.050.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.200.2048.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.190.1944.4444.44-0.02-0.02
MemphisCUSA0.180.1888.2488.240.140.14
CampbellBSth0.170.1736.6736.67-0.04-0.04
New Orleansind0.170.1718.1818.18-0.11-0.11
TulsaCUSA0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
WisconsinB100.160.1667.6567.650.050.05
Texas St.WAC0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
UC DavisBW0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PacificBW0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
ToledoMAC0.140.1453.5753.570.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1431.2531.25-0.05-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
Long Beach St.BW0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
CharlotteA100.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
Michigan St.B100.130.1375.0075.000.060.06
Kansas St.B120.130.1378.7978.790.070.07
HawaiiBW0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Utah ValleyGWC0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Texas San AntonioWAC0.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Utah St.WAC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
North TexasSB0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
IowaB100.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
FloridaSEC0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
MissouriSEC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
BaylorB120.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.100.1017.2417.24-0.07-0.07
MontanaBSky0.100.1079.3179.310.060.06
Montana St.BSky0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.100.1023.0823.08-0.06-0.06
Southern UtahBSky0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
PurdueB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Chicago St.GWC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.090.0948.0048.00-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0928.0028.00-0.04-0.04
GramblingSWAC0.080.080.000.00-0.08-0.08
DenverWAC0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
HoustonCUSA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
MississippiSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
WinthropBSth0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
TulaneCUSA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
NebraskaB100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Texas ChristianB120.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0780.6580.650.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Florida InternationalSB0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
MarquetteBE0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
OregonP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
ElonSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Long IslandNEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
NC GreensboroSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0553.8553.850.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Georgia St.CAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
KansasB120.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Penn St.B100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ArmyPat0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.037.147.14-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleBE0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Washington St.P120.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
NC AshevilleBSth0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SyracuseBE0.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
ButlerA100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
NevadaMWC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00