Sam Houston St.

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	285.7
Current RPI:	291
Expected SOS:	246
Current SOS:	245
Current Record:	5-14
Expected Record:	8-19
Current Conf Record:	3-6
Expected Conf Record:	6-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.42%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-7
Current OOC Record:	2-8
Expected OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC RPI:	280
Expected OOC SOS:	145

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-14	209.0	0.01%
12-15	226.4	0.31%
11-16	243.3	2.41%
10-17	261.0	10.12%
9-18	275.5	22.38%
8-19	288.1	31.33%
7-20	298.1	23.10%
6-21	307.3	9.07%
5-22	316.5	1.26%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sam Houston St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-16	Notre Dame (66.7)	BE	A	74-41	L	0%	0.0
11-21	Mercer (96.4)	ASun	A	60-38	L	0%	0.0
11-22	South Dakota St. (58.0)	Sum	N	60-77	L	0%	0.0
11-23	Niagara (213.6)	MAAC	N	59-52	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Texas (55.5)	B12	A	56-40	L	0%	0.0
12-7	Texas A&M (159.8)	B12	A	64-37	L	0%	0.0
12-10	North Texas (204.1)	SB	A	53-50	L	0%	0.0
12-20	Northern Arizona (329.0)	BSky	H	73-49	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Cleveland St. (49.2)	Horz	A	63-45	L	0%	0.0
12-28	Samford (250.7)	SC	H	74-58	W	100%	0.0
1-8	Texas San Antonio (170.6)	Slnd	H	60-62	L	0%	0.0
1-11	Texas Arlington (100.9)	Slnd	A	66-40	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Nicholls St. (313.6)	Slnd	A	65-75	W	100%	0.0
1-18	Texas St. (317.2)	Slnd	H	71-68	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (316.2)	Slnd	H	49-50	L	0%	0.0
1-25	Stephen F. Austin (256.1)	Slnd	A	67-66	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Texas San Antonio (170.6)	Slnd	A	78-66	L	0%	0.0
2-1	McNeese St. (205.8)	Slnd	H	61-67	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Southeastern Louisiana (325.8)	Slnd	A	55-57	W	100%	0.0
2-8	Texas Arlington (100.9)	Slnd	H	0-0		17%	-10.5
2-11	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (316.2)	Slnd	A	0-0		44%	-1.5
2-15	Central Arkansas (298.6)	Slnd	H	0-0		74%	7.0
2-18	Toledo (275.3)	MAC	H	0-0		47%	-0.7
2-22	Northwestern St. (177.9)	Slnd	A	0-0		23%	-7.9
2-25	Lamar (101.7)	Slnd	H	0-0		19%	-9.6
2-29	Stephen F. Austin (256.1)	Slnd	H	0-0		41%	-2.6
3-3	Texas St. (317.2)	Slnd	A	0-0		40%	-2.6

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sam Houston St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Sam Houston St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Sam Houston St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	26.31	26.22	28.40	30.07	-11.37	-10.45
Texas Arlington	Slnd	3.28	4.55	75.00	74.82	1.64	2.26
Texas St.	Slnd	3.22	4.49	23.53	27.38	-1.70	-2.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	3.24	4.48	13.64	16.68	-2.35	-2.99
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	5.66	4.48	52.63	57.82	0.30	0.70
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	3.23	4.46	41.18	45.54	-0.57	-0.40
Nicholls St.	Slnd	3.15	2.56	26.32	24.64	-1.49	-1.30
Lamar	Slnd	0.46	2.53	61.90	66.80	0.11	0.85
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.47	2.53	55.00	53.62	0.05	0.18
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.35	2.52	27.78	29.92	-0.15	-1.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	2.97	2.52	41.18	43.01	-0.52	-0.35
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	2.96	2.52	29.41	30.69	-1.22	-0.98
Texas	B12	3.02	2.12	60.87	60.94	0.66	0.46
Texas A&M	B12	2.87	2.04	47.62	43.24	-0.14	-0.28
Samford	SC	2.87	2.01	35.00	36.55	-0.86	-0.54
Toledo	MAC	0.13	1.95	38.10	40.42	-0.03	-0.37
Mercer	ASun	2.80	1.95	70.83	71.26	1.17	0.83
North Texas	SB	2.75	1.95	47.37	48.00	-0.14	-0.08
Niagara	MAAC	2.74	1.91	33.33	38.38	-0.91	-0.45
South Dakota St.	Sum	2.74	1.91	72.73	74.60	1.24	0.94
Cleveland St.	Horz	2.63	1.88	81.82	80.77	1.67	1.16
Northern Arizona	BSky	2.63	1.85	14.29	16.85	-1.88	-1.23
Notre Dame	BE	2.63	1.85	63.64	61.43	0.72	0.42
Texas Tech	B12	0.38	0.33	30.43	25.84	-0.15	-0.16
Houston	CUSA	0.33	0.27	47.62	44.58	-0.02	-0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.20	0.26	19.05	24.60	-0.12	-0.13
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.30	0.25	47.83	42.67	-0.01	-0.04
Missouri	B12	0.33	0.25	91.67	87.92	0.28	0.19
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.33	0.24	8.70	8.99	-0.27	-0.20
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.26	0.21	54.17	54.76	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.21	0.20	42.86	43.52	-0.03	-0.03
Baylor	B12	0.24	0.19	90.91	83.90	0.19	0.13
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.27	0.17	43.48	43.27	-0.04	-0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.20	0.17	25.00	28.48	-0.10	-0.07
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.18	0.16	56.52	56.80	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.16	56.52	53.94	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.17	0.16	47.62	46.51	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.19	0.14	30.00	33.22	-0.08	-0.05
Arkansas St.	SB	0.13	0.14	37.50	38.36	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.07	0.14	43.48	44.26	-0.01	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.14	26.32	28.82	-0.03	-0.06
Georgia St.	CAA	0.14	0.13	66.67	69.71	0.05	0.05
Denver	SB	0.12	0.13	70.83	72.24	0.05	0.06
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.13	80.00	76.71	0.04	0.07
Tulsa	CUSA	0.19	0.13	60.87	59.05	0.04	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.18	0.13	52.38	53.29	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.24	0.13	80.77	80.77	0.15	0.08
Kent St.	MAC	0.12	0.13	71.43	69.05	0.05	0.05
Central Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.13	28.57	34.11	-0.00	-0.04
Utah St.	WAC	0.12	0.13	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.17	0.12	70.83	66.50	0.07	0.04
Kansas	B12	0.11	0.12	78.26	78.42	0.06	0.07
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.12	73.91	68.41	0.05	0.05
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.12	0.12	20.83	23.73	-0.07	-0.06
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.11	0.12	8.33	10.90	-0.09	-0.10
West Virginia	BE	0.06	0.12	66.67	65.98	0.02	0.04
Florida International	SB	0.07	0.11	33.33	37.11	-0.02	-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.07	0.11	47.62	47.19	-0.00	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.07	0.10	28.57	35.72	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.00	0.10	4.35	9.74	-0.00	-0.08
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.13	0.10	78.26	72.28	0.07	0.04
Troy	SB	0.19	0.10	28.57	30.17	-0.08	-0.04
Chattanooga	SC	0.12	0.10	27.27	35.05	-0.05	-0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.06	0.10	34.78	35.53	-0.02	-0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.12	0.10	61.90	63.52	0.03	0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.19	0.10	31.82	33.75	-0.07	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.12	0.10	52.38	52.88	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.12	0.10	20.83	23.61	-0.07	-0.05
Bowling Green	MAC	0.13	0.10	47.62	48.81	-0.01	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.10	40.91	42.97	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.09	68.42	66.51	0.02	0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.11	0.09	47.83	47.36	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.09	28.57	29.05	-0.05	-0.04
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.09	18.18	19.91	-0.07	-0.06
Georgia	SEC	0.17	0.09	45.45	41.17	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.11	0.09	47.83	48.88	-0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.07	0.07	40.91	34.45	-0.01	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.00	0.07	31.82	32.81	-0.00	-0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.07	0.07	70.83	71.06	0.03	0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.07	0.07	42.11	45.89	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.07	0.07	69.57	64.49	0.03	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.07	0.07	35.00	40.74	-0.02	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.14	0.07	34.78	34.46	-0.04	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.14	0.07	54.17	47.95	0.01	-0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.13	0.07	59.09	57.27	0.02	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.13	0.07	59.09	57.69	0.02	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.13	0.07	33.33	37.16	-0.04	-0.02
Davidson	SC	0.06	0.07	77.27	77.37	0.03	0.04
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.12	0.07	40.91	44.29	-0.02	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.06	0.07	52.38	49.77	0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.13	0.07	42.86	43.11	-0.02	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.06	0.07	31.82	32.98	-0.02	-0.02
Montana	BSky	0.06	0.07	71.43	73.99	0.03	0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.07	45.00	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.07	34.78	33.38	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.12	0.07	30.00	31.40	-0.05	-0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.12	0.07	42.86	45.93	-0.02	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.07	34.78	37.27	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.13	0.07	47.62	48.48	-0.01	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.07	96.00	93.53	0.06	0.06
Furman	SC	0.05	0.07	45.45	47.20	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.12	0.06	60.87	53.44	0.03	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.12	0.06	86.96	83.30	0.09	0.04
Ball St.	MAC	0.00	0.06	55.00	57.42	0.00	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.13	0.06	66.67	60.84	0.04	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.06	40.91	38.38	-0.00	-0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.13	0.06	39.13	44.46	-0.03	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.11	0.06	33.33	32.18	-0.04	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	34.78	35.19	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota	GWC	0.11	0.06	33.33	41.30	-0.04	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.00	0.06	5.26	7.29	-0.00	-0.05
Oakland	Sum	0.11	0.06	48.00	50.28	-0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.00	0.06	81.82	77.18	0.00	0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.13	0.06	27.27	26.96	-0.06	-0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.11	0.06	45.45	44.27	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.13	0.06	42.86	39.66	-0.02	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	52.63	48.32	0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.06	69.57	65.37	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	68.18	67.98	0.02	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.06	0.06	79.17	74.20	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	43.48	40.24	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.06	77.27	75.07	0.03	0.03
Belmont	ASun	0.05	0.06	70.83	73.74	0.02	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	36.36	40.96	-0.02	-0.01
Butler	Horz	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.81	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.11	0.06	50.00	52.04	0.00	0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.06	43.48	43.89	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.17	57.11	0.00	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.06	48.00	48.07	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	54.55	58.39	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.11	0.06	30.43	29.57	-0.04	-0.03
Valparaiso	Horz	0.06	0.06	65.22	63.55	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	35.00	39.40	-0.02	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	56.52	57.81	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	41.67	40.47	-0.01	-0.01
Boston University	AE	0.11	0.06	50.00	53.83	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.06	79.17	78.05	0.03	0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.11	0.06	20.83	20.61	-0.07	-0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.11	0.06	65.22	63.65	0.03	0.02
South Florida	BE	0.11	0.06	54.55	48.54	0.01	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.11	0.06	60.00	59.09	0.02	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.06	17.39	19.76	-0.03	-0.04
Connecticut	BE	0.11	0.06	65.22	62.35	0.03	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.11	0.06	56.52	54.88	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.11	0.06	79.17	80.14	0.06	0.04
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.11	0.06	78.26	74.29	0.06	0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.11	0.06	68.00	69.08	0.04	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.06	34.78	33.44	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.06	40.00	39.70	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.06	0.06	50.00	46.87	0.00	-0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.06	43.48	45.03	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.07	0.04	69.57	65.18	0.03	0.01
California	P12	0.07	0.04	75.00	74.62	0.04	0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.07	0.04	55.00	54.81	0.01	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.00	0.04	52.17	50.01	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.00	0.04	33.33	34.54	-0.00	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.00	0.04	36.36	39.73	-0.00	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.07	0.04	14.29	14.31	-0.05	-0.03
Iowa	B10	0.00	0.04	54.17	49.41	0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.07	0.04	18.18	23.34	-0.04	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.07	0.04	83.33	84.76	0.04	0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.00	0.04	82.61	81.43	0.00	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.07	0.04	69.57	69.00	0.03	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.07	0.04	40.91	39.60	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.07	0.04	85.71	82.22	0.05	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.00	0.04	69.57	68.33	0.00	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.03	30.43	31.40	-0.02	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.06	0.03	75.00	76.02	0.03	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.06	0.03	47.83	47.88	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.07	0.03	65.00	66.71	0.02	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.06	0.03	58.33	59.92	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.03	56.52	53.76	0.01	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.03	9.52	11.47	-0.05	-0.03
Tulane	CUSA	0.07	0.03	61.90	58.61	0.02	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.00	0.03	0.00	5.31	-0.00	-0.03
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.03	56.52	57.20	0.01	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.00	0.03	57.69	58.27	0.00	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.00	0.03	34.78	38.43	-0.00	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.00	0.03	59.09	59.78	0.00	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.03	21.05	24.33	-0.03	-0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.00	0.03	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.00	0.03	9.09	12.82	-0.00	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.03	79.17	76.62	0.03	0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.00	0.03	76.00	72.48	0.00	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.03	27.27	27.33	-0.03	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.00	0.03	30.00	34.18	-0.00	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.03	70.83	62.75	0.02	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.00	0.03	39.13	36.12	-0.00	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.03	50.00	44.98	0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	69.57	70.42	0.00	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.00	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.00	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.00	0.03	60.87	59.85	0.00	0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.00	0.03	57.14	49.57	0.00	-0.00
Washington	P12	0.06	0.03	69.57	66.59	0.02	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	39.13	42.16	-0.01	-0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.03	9.52	13.17	-0.04	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.03	68.00	70.06	0.02	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.03	69.57	65.88	0.02	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.06	0.03	8.33	10.84	-0.05	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	45.69	-0.00	-0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.03	14.29	17.12	-0.04	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	38.89	41.49	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.00	0.03	47.83	42.19	-0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.00	0.03	80.95	77.45	0.00	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.03	81.82	81.50	0.04	0.02
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.03	20.83	22.81	-0.03	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.03	75.00	75.73	0.03	0.02
Maine	AE	0.06	0.03	47.62	48.01	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.03	80.00	76.67	0.03	0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.05	0.03	13.04	14.47	-0.04	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.03	52.17	58.49	0.00	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	70.83	64.53	0.02	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.03	63.64	63.17	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.03	62.50	59.52	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.00	0.03	52.00	48.78	0.00	-0.00
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.14	0.01	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.06	0.03	44.00	45.88	-0.01	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.03	21.74	22.75	-0.03	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.06	0.03	95.83	92.00	0.05	0.03
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.78	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.00	0.03	61.54	63.84	0.00	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.00	0.03	45.83	45.52	-0.00	-0.00