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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Sam Houston St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:194.0
Current RPI:194
Expected SOS:292
Current SOS:292
Current Record:17-13
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:12-9
Expected Conf Record:12-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-6
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:106
Expected OOC SOS:119



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-13194.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sam Houston St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Ohio (117.0)MACA96-75L0%0.0
11-17Southern (320.0)SWACH91-83W100%0.0
11-20Tennessee Tech (277.0)OVCA71-78W100%0.0
11-22Georgia Tech (105.0)ACCA81-73L0%0.0
11-25Idaho (209.0)BSkyH69-62W100%0.0
11-30Baylor (11.0)B12A79-45L0%0.0
12-10Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCA73-79W100%0.0
12-17North Texas (339.0)CUSAH76-70W100%0.0
12-22Arkansas (28.0)SECN90-56L0%0.0
12-29Houston Baptist (175.0)SlndH65-79L0%0.0
12-31Central Arkansas (313.0)SlndA67-65L0%0.0
1-5McNeese St. (315.0)SlndA67-74W100%0.0
1-7Nicholls St. (252.0)SlndH74-61W100%0.0
1-12New Orleans (154.0)SlndA68-70W100%0.0
1-14Northwestern St. (306.0)SlndA68-77W100%0.0
1-19Lamar (232.0)SlndH87-65W100%0.0
1-21Texas A&M Corpus Chris (158.0)SlndH76-62W100%0.0
1-28Southeastern Louisiana (248.0)SlndH71-69W100%0.0
2-2Stephen F. Austin (202.0)SlndH72-63W100%0.0
2-4Abilene Christian (288.0)SlndA71-64L0%0.0
2-9Lamar (232.0)SlndA80-76L0%0.0
2-11Incarnate Word (303.0)SlndH72-63W100%0.0
2-16Houston Baptist (175.0)SlndA88-77L0%0.0
2-18Incarnate Word (303.0)SlndA69-53L0%0.0
2-25Abilene Christian (288.0)SlndH81-84L0%0.0
3-2McNeese St. (315.0)SlndH79-74W100%0.0
3-4Stephen F. Austin (202.0)SlndA64-56L0%0.0
3-8Central Arkansas (313.0)SlndN77-69W100%0.0
3-9Houston Baptist (175.0)SlndN59-63W100%0.0
3-10New Orleans (154.0)SlndN75-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sam Houston St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Sam Houston St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Sam Houston St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Sam Houston St.Slnd26.5026.5059.5259.525.055.05
Houston BaptistSlnd5.795.7947.8347.83-0.25-0.25
Stephen F. AustinSlnd4.274.2751.8551.850.160.16
LamarSlnd4.264.2651.8551.850.160.16
New OrleansSlnd4.244.2461.5461.540.980.98
Central ArkansasSlnd4.204.2023.3323.33-2.24-2.24
Incarnate WordSlnd4.194.1930.4330.43-1.64-1.64
McNeese St.Slnd4.194.1920.8320.83-2.44-2.44
Abilene ChristianSlnd4.144.1430.4330.43-1.62-1.62
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.802.8062.9662.960.730.73
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.732.7348.2848.28-0.09-0.09
Nicholls St.Slnd2.572.5738.4638.46-0.59-0.59
Northwestern St.Slnd2.562.5637.5037.50-0.64-0.64
SouthernSWAC1.801.8044.8344.83-0.19-0.19
ArkansasSEC1.751.7572.7372.730.800.80
Georgia TechACC1.751.7550.0050.000.000.00
OhioMAC1.751.7562.0762.070.420.42
Tennessee TechOVC1.751.7534.4834.48-0.54-0.54
BaylorB121.691.6976.6776.670.900.90
North TexasCUSA1.691.6922.2222.22-0.94-0.94
Southern IllinoisMVC1.691.6951.6151.610.050.05
IdahoBSky1.671.6757.1457.140.240.24
RiceCUSA0.310.3164.5264.520.090.09
Texas TechB120.280.2856.2556.250.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.220.2261.2961.290.050.05
TulaneAmer0.210.2119.3519.35-0.13-0.13
New MexicoMWC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
NorthwesternB100.160.1667.6567.650.050.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
OklahomaB120.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Little RockSB0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
TulsaAmer0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
UTSACUSA0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.110.1113.3313.33-0.08-0.08
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.116.906.90-0.10-0.10
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
IndianaB100.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
MarquetteBE0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
UNLVMWC0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Washington St.P120.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
MontanaBSky0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
PurdueB100.060.0678.1278.120.040.04
SMUAmer0.060.0688.2488.240.050.05
San DiegoWCC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
USCP120.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
LipscombASun0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
SamfordSC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0329.4129.41-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01