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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Sam Houston St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:166.4
Current RPI:80
Expected SOS:273
Current SOS:69
Current Record:3-3
Expected Record:16-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-4
Current OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:141
Expected OOC SOS:124



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-454.30.03%
22-559.80.10%
21-673.20.42%
20-787.92.10%
19-8103.55.48%
18-9119.710.21%
17-10138.617.10%
16-11158.019.39%
15-12179.317.94%
14-13200.613.07%
13-14223.38.01%
12-15244.63.89%
11-16265.21.55%
10-17282.60.54%
9-18299.70.09%
8-19310.30.06%
7-20320.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sam Houston St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Ohio (87.4)MACA96-75L0%0.0
11-17Southern (234.3)SWACH91-83W100%0.0
11-20Tennessee Tech (305.9)OVCA71-78W100%0.0
11-22Georgia Tech (191.7)ACCA81-73L0%0.0
11-25Idaho (228.1)BSkyH69-62W100%0.0
11-30Baylor (8.1)B12A79-45L0%0.0
12-10Southern Illinois (145.7)MVCA0-029%-6.8
12-17North Texas (299.2)CUSAH0-081%10.7
12-22Arkansas (43.1)SECN0-012%-14.0
12-29Houston Baptist (219.0)SlndH0-071%6.7
12-31Central Arkansas (268.7)SlndA0-061%3.2
1-5McNeese St. (326.5)SlndA0-079%9.6
1-7Nicholls St. (253.7)SlndH0-082%11.0
1-12New Orleans (251.5)SlndA0-057%2.2
1-14Northwestern St. (259.9)SlndA0-057%2.1
1-19Lamar (300.5)SlndH0-082%11.1
1-21Texas A&M Corpus Chris (163.3)SlndH0-057%2.1
1-28Southeastern Louisiana (232.7)SlndH0-071%6.7
2-2Stephen F. Austin (172.7)SlndH0-058%2.3
2-4Abilene Christian (190.8)SlndA0-043%-2.1
2-9Lamar (300.5)SlndA0-066%4.8
2-11Incarnate Word (222.9)SlndH0-069%6.1
2-16Houston Baptist (219.0)SlndA0-051%0.5
2-18Incarnate Word (222.9)SlndA0-049%-0.2
2-25Abilene Christian (190.8)SlndH0-064%4.2
3-2McNeese St. (326.5)SlndH0-091%15.8
3-4Stephen F. Austin (172.7)SlndA0-037%-4.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sam Houston St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Sam Houston St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Sam Houston St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Sam Houston St.Slnd28.8626.3659.0960.795.255.69
Incarnate WordSlnd0.004.5625.0043.65-0.00-0.58
Houston BaptistSlnd0.004.550.0039.60-0.00-0.95
LamarSlnd0.004.5350.0042.780.00-0.65
McNeese St.Slnd0.004.520.0017.80-0.00-2.91
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.004.5125.0055.56-0.000.50
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.004.4840.0055.22-0.000.47
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.002.8975.0062.230.000.71
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.002.8142.8650.88-0.000.05
New OrleansSlnd0.002.7740.0041.89-0.00-0.45
Northwestern St.Slnd0.002.7720.0041.87-0.00-0.45
Central ArkansasSlnd0.002.7512.5030.08-0.00-1.10
Nicholls St.Slnd0.002.7442.8638.08-0.00-0.65
SouthernSWAC10.142.0150.0060.990.000.44
ArkansasSEC0.001.9685.7165.470.000.61
Georgia TechACC10.381.9550.0033.800.00-0.63
Tennessee TechOVC10.461.9528.5728.52-4.48-0.84
OhioMAC10.281.9580.0070.426.170.80
BaylorB128.331.88100.0075.788.330.97
North TexasCUSA0.001.8833.3330.88-0.00-0.72
Southern IllinoisMVC0.001.8857.1448.360.00-0.06
IdahoBSky8.331.8560.0054.791.670.18
RiceCUSA0.000.3375.0071.470.000.14
Texas TechB120.000.2887.5062.040.000.07
TulaneAmer0.600.2012.5023.93-0.45-0.11
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1971.4354.310.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.1771.4348.350.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.1757.1438.680.00-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1520.0037.65-0.00-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.1562.5058.450.000.03
MemphisAmer0.000.1575.0055.500.000.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1485.7153.560.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1471.4363.930.000.04
UABCUSA0.000.1450.0059.920.000.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1422.2221.23-0.00-0.08
UTSACUSA0.000.1425.0029.54-0.00-0.06
Idaho St.BSky0.000.1412.5029.15-0.00-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1314.2931.28-0.00-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1375.0051.040.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1366.6766.180.000.04
Alabama A&MSWAC1.040.130.0013.46-1.04-0.10
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1314.2943.58-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1350.0066.300.000.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1116.6729.81-0.00-0.04
NorthwesternB100.000.1175.0066.170.000.04
TulsaAmer0.000.1150.0038.050.00-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.110.0022.01-0.00-0.06
Texas St.SB0.000.1150.0043.390.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.1062.5043.800.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.1087.5082.800.000.07
UTEPCUSA0.000.1020.0035.47-0.00-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1050.0071.020.000.04
Miami OHMAC0.000.1042.8630.92-0.00-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.100.0034.27-0.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.000.1057.1442.530.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1016.6736.03-0.00-0.03
Little RockSB0.690.0966.6761.330.230.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0916.6738.58-0.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.600.0940.0041.12-0.12-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.520.0987.5075.590.390.05
IndianaB100.000.0787.5074.490.000.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0771.4355.820.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0720.0021.80-0.00-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0733.3346.38-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0775.0066.410.000.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0757.1458.840.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0757.1450.420.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0757.1471.520.000.03
PurdueB100.000.0775.0075.340.000.04
SMUAmer0.000.0766.6766.860.000.02
Washington St.P120.000.0742.8628.98-0.00-0.03
DePaulBE0.000.0766.6735.430.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0771.4355.160.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0766.6740.030.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0733.3348.07-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0725.0048.10-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0750.0062.380.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0712.5023.75-0.00-0.04
Oregon St.P120.000.0725.0022.93-0.00-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.690.0725.0039.59-0.35-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.070.0024.64-0.00-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.0716.6749.65-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.690.0742.8645.56-0.10-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0737.5031.23-0.00-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0775.0048.030.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0771.4368.980.000.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0712.5033.65-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.070.0023.69-0.00-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0728.5741.52-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0733.3352.21-0.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0771.4351.460.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0750.0056.740.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0725.0031.41-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0757.1454.360.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.690.0771.4354.860.300.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.070.0025.23-0.00-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0771.4368.050.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0725.0020.78-0.00-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0737.5035.09-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0757.1429.790.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0787.5065.250.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.520.0671.4356.250.220.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.830.060.0022.58-0.83-0.04
ToledoMAC0.000.0637.5047.91-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0650.0064.350.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0050.840.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0046.410.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.520.0612.5033.04-0.39-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0685.7170.060.000.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0662.5067.390.000.02
Michigan St.B100.520.0655.5658.610.060.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0061.240.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0650.0041.990.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0675.0054.670.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0633.3336.74-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0642.8638.63-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0642.8627.96-0.00-0.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0671.4354.860.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0019.67-0.00-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0642.8644.71-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0660.0067.760.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0642.8650.11-0.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0671.4368.070.000.02
KansasB120.000.0687.5075.860.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0687.5059.310.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4358.920.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0660.0058.590.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0633.3352.84-0.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0077.380.000.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0671.4366.700.000.02
TCUB120.000.06100.0061.680.000.01
VCUA100.520.0675.0073.060.260.03
West VirginiaB120.000.0685.7183.660.000.04
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0675.0086.710.000.05
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0657.1452.030.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0687.5068.020.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0675.0048.500.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0611.1148.19-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0687.5075.240.000.03
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4349.170.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0650.0046.240.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0442.8641.51-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.04100.0089.330.000.03
USCP120.000.04100.0076.680.000.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0442.8650.06-0.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0314.2932.19-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0375.0070.180.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3354.32-0.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6739.20-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0340.0043.41-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0362.5056.520.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.690.0350.0041.490.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0366.6758.060.000.01
UC DavisBW0.690.0350.0045.970.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.0385.7176.240.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0342.8647.11-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.690.0325.0047.82-0.35-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0328.5731.44-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0312.5037.99-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0350.0040.600.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0314.2936.02-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0316.6730.34-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0322.2226.33-0.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0357.1464.030.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0387.5076.230.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0328.5732.62-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0357.1444.890.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0325.0035.09-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0385.7145.370.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0385.7162.220.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0371.4360.540.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0357.1450.080.000.00
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3356.24-0.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.47-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0388.8978.400.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.520.0357.1471.940.070.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0375.0066.100.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0387.5081.960.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.75-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.520.030.0022.31-0.52-0.02
OregonP120.520.0375.0072.250.260.01
Penn St.B100.600.0366.6746.420.20-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0375.0049.180.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0328.5723.78-0.00-0.02
VirginiaACC0.000.0387.5078.510.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.990.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0375.0054.490.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.030.0034.81-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0362.5051.790.000.00
XavierBE0.520.0387.5070.890.390.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0357.1451.790.000.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0362.5040.460.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0375.0066.370.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.0342.8650.09-0.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.450.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0074.440.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0371.4373.040.000.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0371.4370.210.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0385.7178.280.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.460.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0357.1458.940.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0312.5034.79-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0078.850.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.0377.7876.040.000.02