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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Sam Houston St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:82.0
Current RPI:82
Expected SOS:221
Current SOS:221
Current Record:21-8
Expected Record:21-8
Current Conf Record:16-4
Expected Conf Record:16-4
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:18-1
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:100
Expected OOC SOS:108



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-882.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sam Houston St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16UNLV (114.0)MWCA59-57L0%0.0
11-21South Dakota (213.0)SumN85-93W100%0.0
11-22Fairfield (299.0)MAACA60-74W100%0.0
11-23Wofford (47.0)SCN53-64L0%0.0
12-3Texas A&M (67.0)SECA66-63L0%0.0
12-6Texas Pan American (334.0)WACH78-59W100%0.0
12-13LSU (57.0)SECA76-67L0%0.0
12-16Eastern Washington (74.0)BSkyH76-52W100%0.0
12-20Prairie View A&M (262.0)SWACH61-44W100%0.0
1-3Incarnate Word (160.0)SlndH84-78W100%0.0
1-5Northwestern St. (161.0)SlndH75-64W100%0.0
1-10New Orleans (326.0)SlndA62-68W100%0.0
1-12Southeastern Louisiana (329.0)SlndA59-72W100%0.0
1-17McNeese St. (279.0)SlndH69-60W100%0.0
1-20Nicholls St. (321.0)SlndA39-62W100%0.0
1-24Stephen F. Austin (33.0)SlndH68-79L0%0.0
1-26Abilene Christian (324.0)SlndA63-80W100%0.0
1-31Houston Baptist (285.0)SlndH63-52W100%0.0
2-2Lamar (230.0)SlndH79-50W100%0.0
2-7Texas A&M Corpus Chris (209.0)SlndH67-59W100%0.0
2-14Houston Baptist (285.0)SlndA64-87W100%0.0
2-16Abilene Christian (324.0)SlndH71-49W100%0.0
2-21Central Arkansas (349.0)SlndA42-70W100%0.0
2-28Texas A&M Corpus Chris (209.0)SlndA61-59L0%0.0
3-2Central Arkansas (349.0)SlndH76-49W100%0.0
3-5Lamar (230.0)SlndA61-67W100%0.0
3-7Stephen F. Austin (33.0)SlndA64-55L0%0.0
3-13Texas A&M Corpus Chris (209.0)SlndN70-67W100%0.0
3-14Stephen F. Austin (33.0)SlndN83-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sam Houston St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Sam Houston St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Sam Houston St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Sam Houston St.Slnd26.4826.4875.5775.5713.5413.54
Stephen F. AustinSlnd6.066.0685.1985.194.274.27
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd6.036.0359.2659.261.121.12
Houston BaptistSlnd4.344.3436.3636.36-1.18-1.18
LamarSlnd4.334.3345.8345.83-0.36-0.36
Abilene ChristianSlnd4.304.3026.9226.92-1.98-1.98
Central ArkansasSlnd4.174.177.417.41-3.55-3.55
Northwestern St.Slnd2.742.7457.6957.690.420.42
New OrleansSlnd2.732.7332.0032.00-0.98-0.98
Incarnate WordSlnd2.722.7260.8760.870.590.59
McNeese St.Slnd2.662.6642.3142.31-0.41-0.41
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.602.6026.6726.67-1.22-1.22
Nicholls St.Slnd2.572.5728.0028.00-1.13-1.13
Texas A&MSEC1.841.8463.3363.330.490.49
LSUSEC1.811.8167.7467.740.640.64
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.811.8145.1645.16-0.18-0.18
South DakotaSum1.811.8150.0050.000.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC1.791.7925.9325.93-0.86-0.86
WoffordSC1.781.7880.6580.651.091.09
FairfieldMAAC1.781.7823.3323.33-0.95-0.95
UNLVMWC1.751.7551.6151.610.060.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.721.7276.6776.670.920.92
DenverSum0.260.2640.0040.00-0.05-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.200.2022.5822.58-0.11-0.11
Texas St.SB0.180.1839.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.170.1764.7164.710.050.05
BaylorB120.170.1771.8871.880.080.08
RiceCUSA0.170.1734.4834.48-0.05-0.05
AuburnSEC0.160.1641.1841.18-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.160.1640.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.160.1651.7251.720.010.01
UTSACUSA0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.150.1562.0762.070.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1418.7518.75-0.09-0.09
UC RiversideBW0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.130.1335.7135.71-0.04-0.04
CreightonBE0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
MemphisAmer0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
MontanaBSky0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
FloridaSEC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
NebraskaB100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.090.0981.2581.250.060.06
TroySB0.090.0929.6329.63-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0959.2659.260.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
BradleyMVC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.090.0924.1424.14-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0990.9190.910.070.07
RadfordBSth0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
XavierBE0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
Texas TechB120.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0862.9662.960.020.02
IdahoBSky0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0847.0647.06-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
IonaMAAC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
FurmanSC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Iowa St.B120.070.0775.7675.760.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
IUPUISum0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
MaristMAAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
RiderMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
SienaMAAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.040.0451.7251.720.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
BucknellPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
BrownIvy0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01