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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Sam Houston St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:178.0
Current RPI:178
Expected SOS:229
Current SOS:229
Current Record:15-14
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-4
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:181
Expected OOC SOS:34



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-14178.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sam Houston St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14SMU (13.0)AmerA85-50L0%0.0
11-21Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCH81-86L0%0.0
11-23California (16.0)P12A89-63L0%0.0
11-27Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACN46-71W100%0.0
12-2Texas Tech (36.0)B12A71-56L0%0.0
12-18LIU Brooklyn (254.0)NECA69-75W100%0.0
12-21UC Irvine (75.0)BWN63-53L0%0.0
12-22UTEP (215.0)CUSAA87-68L0%0.0
12-29North Texas (295.0)CUSAA69-64L0%0.0
1-2Incarnate Word (163.0)SlndA72-78W100%0.0
1-4Northwestern St. (344.0)SlndA79-94W100%0.0
1-9New Orleans (343.0)SlndH73-70W100%0.0
1-11Southeastern Louisiana (331.0)SlndH70-63W100%0.0
1-16McNeese St. (341.0)SlndA72-68L0%0.0
1-18Nicholls St. (313.0)SlndH87-76W100%0.0
1-23Stephen F. Austin (61.0)SlndA76-64L0%0.0
1-25Abilene Christian (321.0)SlndH72-51W100%0.0
1-30Houston Baptist (224.0)SlndA70-69L0%0.0
2-1Lamar (337.0)SlndA66-69W100%0.0
2-6Texas A&M Corpus Chris (84.0)SlndA51-48L0%0.0
2-13Houston Baptist (224.0)SlndH80-68W100%0.0
2-15Abilene Christian (321.0)SlndA71-84W100%0.0
2-20Central Arkansas (339.0)SlndH105-75W100%0.0
2-27Texas A&M Corpus Chris (84.0)SlndH70-75L0%0.0
2-29Central Arkansas (339.0)SlndA73-83W100%0.0
3-3Lamar (337.0)SlndH94-76W100%0.0
3-5Stephen F. Austin (61.0)SlndH64-85L0%0.0
3-10Nicholls St. (313.0)SlndN60-59W100%0.0
3-11Texas A&M Corpus Chris (84.0)SlndN79-76L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sam Houston St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Sam Houston St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Sam Houston St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Sam Houston St.Slnd26.4126.4155.7355.733.023.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd6.026.0274.0774.072.902.90
Stephen F. AustinSlnd4.434.4380.7780.772.732.73
Houston BaptistSlnd4.414.4144.4444.44-0.49-0.49
Nicholls St.Slnd4.334.3327.5927.59-1.94-1.94
Abilene ChristianSlnd4.284.2836.0036.00-1.20-1.20
LamarSlnd4.254.2529.1729.17-1.77-1.77
Central ArkansasSlnd4.194.1926.9226.92-1.93-1.93
Incarnate WordSlnd2.752.7558.3358.330.460.46
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.692.6933.3333.33-0.90-0.90
McNeese St.Slnd2.642.6424.0024.00-1.37-1.37
New OrleansSlnd2.642.6426.9226.92-1.22-1.22
Northwestern St.Slnd2.582.5821.7421.74-1.46-1.46
North TexasCUSA1.861.8631.0331.03-0.71-0.71
Southern IllinoisMVC1.811.8167.7467.740.640.64
UTEPCUSA1.781.7854.8454.840.170.17
SMUAmer1.781.7882.7682.761.171.17
CaliforniaP121.761.7668.7568.750.660.66
LIU BrooklynNEC1.761.7653.3353.330.120.12
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.721.7241.3841.38-0.30-0.30
Texas TechB121.721.7260.0060.000.340.34
UC IrvineBW1.721.7270.9770.970.720.72
RiceCUSA0.270.2733.3333.33-0.09-0.09
TCUB120.260.2636.3636.36-0.07-0.07
UC RiversideBW0.240.2438.7138.71-0.05-0.05
UTSACUSA0.230.2313.3313.33-0.17-0.17
Florida A&MMEAC0.200.2022.2222.22-0.11-0.11
OklahomaB120.180.1878.1278.120.100.10
Arizona St.P120.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.170.1748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
Cal PolyBW0.170.1728.5728.57-0.07-0.07
BaylorB120.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
TulaneAmer0.150.1535.2935.29-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.150.1587.1087.100.110.11
Texas St.SB0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
FIUCUSA0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.140.1483.3383.330.090.09
ColoradoP120.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
MassachusettsA100.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
DrakeMVC0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
UABCUSA0.120.1280.6580.650.070.07
Texas A&MSEC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
HoustonAmer0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
MemphisAmer0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.1170.0070.000.040.04
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
UtahP120.110.1175.7675.760.050.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.06-0.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0918.5218.52-0.06-0.06
New HampshireAE0.090.0958.6258.620.020.02
NebraskaB100.090.0947.0647.06-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
PortlandWCC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
ArizonaP120.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
ElonCAA0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
WisconsinB100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
BradleyMVC0.090.0912.9012.90-0.06-0.06
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0862.8662.860.020.02
UCFAmer0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
RichmondA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0822.5822.58-0.05-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
StanfordP120.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
OregonP120.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Oregon St.P120.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
RutgersB100.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.060.0639.3939.39-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Iowa St.B120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Kansas St.B120.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0583.8783.870.040.04
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
MississippiSEC0.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
IdahoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
TroySB0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
PacificWCC0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
WashingtonP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01