Sam Houston St.

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	224.0
Current RPI:	224
Expected SOS:	259
Current SOS:	259
Current Record:	14-17
Expected Record:	14-17
Current Conf Record:	10-11
Expected Conf Record:	10-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-6
Current OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC RPI:	189
Expected OOC SOS:	203

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-17	224.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sam Houston St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Arkansas (89.0)	SEC	A	73-68	L	0%
11-15	Indiana (8.0)	B10	A	99-45	L	0%
11-19	Southern Mississippi (31.0)	CUSA	H	49-61	L	0%
11-20	Liberty (288.0)	BSth	H	64-50	W	100%
11-21	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	H	65-63	W	100%
11-27	Texas (116.0)	B12	A	65-37	L	0%
12-1	Northern Arizona (255.0)	BSky	A	77-60	L	0%
12-8	Houston Baptist (310.0)	GWC	A	57-69	W	100%
12-15	Samford (291.0)	SC	A	57-73	W	100%
1-4	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (323.0)	Slnd	H	61-57	W	100%
1-7	Northwestern St. (78.0)	Slnd	H	64-73	L	0%
1-10	Lamar (335.0)	Slnd	A	57-68	W	100%
1-12	McNeese St. (246.0)	Slnd	A	57-72	W	100%
1-17	Central Arkansas (286.0)	Slnd	H	63-52	W	100%
1-19	Oral Roberts (151.0)	Slnd	H	61-65	L	0%
1-24	Southeastern Louisiana (227.0)	Slnd	A	69-65	L	0%
1-26	Nicholls St. (296.0)	Slnd	A	70-67	L	0%
2-2	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (323.0)	Slnd	A	51-55	W	100%
2-7	McNeese St. (246.0)	Slnd	H	58-59	L	0%
2-9	Lamar (335.0)	Slnd	H	78-40	W	100%
2-14	Oral Roberts (151.0)	Slnd	A	74-64	L	0%
2-16	Central Arkansas (286.0)	Slnd	A	75-80	W	100%
2-20	Stephen F. Austin (65.0)	Slnd	H	44-50	L	0%
2-23	Eastern Washington (321.0)	BSky	A	81-76	L	0%
2-28	Nicholls St. (296.0)	Slnd	H	53-56	L	0%
3-2	Southeastern Louisiana (227.0)	Slnd	H	54-45	W	100%
3-7	Stephen F. Austin (65.0)	Slnd	A	57-42	L	0%
3-9	Northwestern St. (78.0)	Slnd	A	84-73	L	0%
3-13	Central Arkansas (286.0)	Slnd	N	69-63	W	100%
3-14	Oral Roberts (151.0)	Slnd	N	55-58	W	100%
3-15	Northwestern St. (78.0)	Slnd	N	55-52	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sam Houston St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Sam Houston St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Sam Houston St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	26.69	26.69	47.62	47.62	-1.27	-1.27
Northwestern St.	Slnd	5.93	5.93	66.67	66.67	1.98	1.98
Oral Roberts	Slnd	5.86	5.86	53.57	53.57	0.42	0.42
Central Arkansas	Slnd	5.85	5.85	44.00	44.00	-0.70	-0.70
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	4.43	4.43	84.00	84.00	3.01	3.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	4.41	4.41	37.04	37.04	-1.14	-1.14
McNeese St.	Slnd	4.40	4.40	38.46	38.46	-1.02	-1.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	4.36	4.36	25.00	25.00	-2.18	-2.18
Lamar	Slnd	4.30	4.30	10.34	10.34	-3.41	-3.41
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	4.29	4.29	19.23	19.23	-2.64	-2.64
Arkansas	SEC	1.70	1.70	58.06	58.06	0.27	0.27
Northern Arizona	BSky	1.66	1.66	32.26	32.26	-0.59	-0.59
Eastern Washington	BSky	1.66	1.66	30.00	30.00	-0.67	-0.67
UC Irvine	BW	1.66	1.66	56.25	56.25	0.21	0.21
Liberty	BSth	1.66	1.66	38.71	38.71	-0.38	-0.38
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	1.66	1.66	70.97	70.97	0.70	0.70
Houston Baptist	GWC	1.61	1.61	40.74	40.74	-0.30	-0.30
Indiana	B10	1.61	1.61	81.25	81.25	1.01	1.01
Samford	SC	1.61	1.61	33.33	33.33	-0.54	-0.54
Texas	B12	1.61	1.61	48.39	48.39	-0.05	-0.05
Oklahoma	B12	0.36	0.36	64.52	64.52	0.10	0.10
Texas A&M	SEC	0.29	0.29	54.55	54.55	0.03	0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.23	0.23	80.00	80.00	0.14	0.14
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.23	0.23	80.65	80.65	0.14	0.14
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.23	0.23	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.20	0.20	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.19	0.19	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.18	0.18	88.24	88.24	0.14	0.14
Campbell	BSth	0.17	0.17	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
New Orleans	ind	0.17	0.17	18.18	18.18	-0.11	-0.11
Tulsa	CUSA	0.16	0.16	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.16	0.16	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.16	0.16	67.65	67.65	0.05	0.05
Texas St.	WAC	0.16	0.16	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
UC Davis	BW	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	BW	0.15	0.15	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Toledo	MAC	0.14	0.14	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.14	0.14	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.14	0.14	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.14	0.14	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
Long Beach St.	BW	0.13	0.13	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.13	0.13	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Michigan St.	B10	0.13	0.13	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Kansas St.	B12	0.13	0.13	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Hawaii	BW	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.12	0.12	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Utah Valley	GWC	0.11	0.11	35.71	35.71	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.11	0.11	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Utah St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
North Texas	SB	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Iowa	B10	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Baylor	B12	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.10	0.10	17.24	17.24	-0.07	-0.07
Montana	BSky	0.10	0.10	79.31	79.31	0.06	0.06
Montana St.	BSky	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.10	0.10	23.08	23.08	-0.06	-0.06
Southern Utah	BSky	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.09	0.09	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.09	0.09	28.00	28.00	-0.04	-0.04
Grambling	SWAC	0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	-0.08	-0.08
Denver	WAC	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Houston	CUSA	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
Tulane	CUSA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Missouri St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Christian	B12	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.07	0.07	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Georgia	SEC	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Florida International	SB	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.06	0.06	14.81	14.81	-0.04	-0.04
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Elon	SC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Fresno St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.03	-0.03
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.02	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Butler	A10	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Nevada	MWC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00