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Through games of Dec 21, 2014.


Sam Houston St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:102.8
Current RPI:113
Expected SOS:291
Current SOS:127
Current Record:5-4
Expected Record:20-7
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-1
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:93
Expected OOC SOS:93



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-459.72.41%
22-570.811.30%
21-686.123.22%
20-7101.328.35%
19-8118.020.34%
18-9136.19.74%
17-10153.63.56%
16-11174.40.83%
15-12198.80.20%
14-13212.70.03%
13-14241.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sam Houston St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16UNLV (138.0)MWCA59-57L0%0.0
11-21South Dakota (239.6)SumN85-93W100%0.0
11-22Fairfield (254.6)MAACA60-74W100%0.0
11-23Wofford (62.6)SCN53-64L0%0.0
12-3Texas A&M (70.6)SECA66-63L0%0.0
12-6Texas Pan American (273.8)WACH78-59W100%0.0
12-13LSU (69.7)SECA76-67L0%0.0
12-16Eastern Washington (55.6)BSkyH76-52W100%0.0
12-20Prairie View A&M (285.9)SWACH61-44W100%0.0
1-3Incarnate Word (104.0)SlndH0-072%6.8
1-5Northwestern St. (259.9)SlndH0-093%16.9
1-10New Orleans (234.1)SlndA0-073%7.0
1-12Southeastern Louisiana (231.4)SlndA0-069%5.9
1-17McNeese St. (252.7)SlndH0-092%16.3
1-20Nicholls St. (332.6)SlndA0-092%16.7
1-24Stephen F. Austin (68.4)SlndH0-060%2.9
1-26Abilene Christian (342.8)SlndA0-097%21.3
1-31Houston Baptist (275.5)SlndH0-094%18.2
2-2Lamar (251.4)SlndH0-094%17.8
2-7Texas A&M Corpus Chris (303.9)SlndH0-096%20.8
2-14Houston Baptist (275.5)SlndA0-080%9.7
2-16Abilene Christian (342.8)SlndH0-099%29.9
2-21Central Arkansas (340.1)SlndA0-092%16.7
2-28Texas A&M Corpus Chris (303.9)SlndA0-085%12.2
3-2Central Arkansas (340.1)SlndH0-098%25.3
3-5Lamar (251.4)SlndA0-079%9.2
3-7Stephen F. Austin (68.4)SlndA0-031%-5.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sam Houston St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Sam Houston St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Sam Houston St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Sam Houston St.Slnd27.5226.3360.0077.535.5014.50
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.284.5966.6779.900.092.75
LamarSlnd0.284.5914.2938.09-0.20-1.09
Houston BaptistSlnd0.004.5716.6738.54-0.00-1.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.004.5633.3336.37-0.00-1.24
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.004.5514.2915.65-0.00-3.13
Central ArkansasSlnd0.004.450.0016.92-0.00-2.95
Incarnate WordSlnd0.002.8380.0078.900.001.64
McNeese St.Slnd0.282.7620.0045.85-0.17-0.23
Northwestern St.Slnd0.282.7516.6740.84-0.19-0.50
New OrleansSlnd0.282.7520.0047.28-0.17-0.15
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.002.7420.0046.36-0.00-0.20
Nicholls St.Slnd0.002.690.0018.75-0.00-1.68
Texas A&MSEC5.561.9966.6760.021.850.40
LSUSEC5.561.9577.7862.543.090.49
South DakotaSum6.451.9536.3644.55-1.76-0.21
Texas Pan AmericanWAC5.561.9233.3341.95-1.85-0.31
Prairie View A&MSWAC5.561.920.0040.40-5.56-0.37
FairfieldMAAC6.101.9244.4438.75-0.68-0.43
WoffordSC6.061.9175.0074.633.030.94
UNLVMWC5.791.8862.5048.301.45-0.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky5.561.8566.6779.641.851.10
DenverSum0.000.2341.6751.30-0.000.01
RiceCUSA0.280.1816.6726.53-0.19-0.08
HoustonAmer0.280.1862.5041.050.07-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1836.3645.36-0.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.280.1750.0051.190.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.280.1720.0053.25-0.170.01
BaylorB120.560.1790.0073.480.440.08
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.230.1618.1822.91-0.15-0.09
Nebraska OmahaSum0.280.1650.0055.090.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.280.1672.7361.760.130.04
UC RiversideBW0.000.1550.0042.770.00-0.02
IndianaB100.280.1481.8263.040.180.04
North TexasCUSA0.000.1450.0041.130.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1442.8649.26-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.1337.5037.29-0.00-0.03
UTSACUSA0.280.1337.5035.62-0.07-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.510.1330.0038.42-0.20-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.1377.7872.900.000.06
CreightonBE0.510.1369.2349.070.20-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.139.0917.38-0.00-0.08
AuburnSEC0.000.1250.0039.580.00-0.03
FloridaSEC0.000.1263.6464.970.000.04
San FranciscoWCC0.280.1145.4552.17-0.030.00
TCUB120.280.11100.0068.320.280.04
TulsaAmer0.000.1160.0056.010.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.1120.0040.46-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.280.1072.7375.960.130.05
DuquesneA100.000.1037.5033.78-0.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.1066.6744.010.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.280.1040.0046.92-0.06-0.01
TroySB0.000.1042.8640.42-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.230.1016.6733.12-0.15-0.03
Saint LouisA100.280.1063.6436.240.08-0.03
Texas TechB120.560.1090.0055.400.440.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.280.1028.5761.90-0.120.02
MemphisAmer0.280.1060.0061.850.060.02
MontanaBSky0.230.1022.2247.34-0.13-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.230.1020.0026.61-0.14-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.000.1080.0072.430.000.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1044.4437.49-0.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.280.1037.5044.53-0.07-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.310.1042.8649.17-0.04-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0944.4443.16-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.310.0916.6737.43-0.21-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0940.0046.04-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.850.0966.6758.210.280.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0937.5031.93-0.00-0.03
IonaMAAC0.310.0960.0069.180.060.04
AlabamaSEC0.000.0970.0052.050.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0940.0032.37-0.00-0.03
MississippiSEC0.000.0970.0052.340.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0955.5646.470.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0863.6442.700.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0855.5656.250.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0737.5049.56-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0772.7367.570.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0790.0065.820.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0763.6472.270.000.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.0011.31-0.00-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0775.0058.740.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0733.3361.51-0.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0727.2735.54-0.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.0770.0062.800.000.02
North DakotaBSky0.280.0725.0034.43-0.14-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0720.0029.06-0.00-0.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0730.0032.35-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0736.3637.27-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0770.0059.760.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0737.5053.02-0.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0711.1129.44-0.00-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0736.3650.65-0.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0790.9183.170.000.04
Portland St.BSky0.000.0750.0042.750.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0760.0062.090.000.02
XavierBE0.000.0772.7367.750.000.02
UtahP120.590.0780.0080.490.350.04
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0614.2930.32-0.00-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0028.78-0.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0026.25-0.00-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0637.5035.77-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0618.1837.88-0.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0640.0049.35-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0662.5071.550.000.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0671.4363.340.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.0622.2231.93-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.009.03-0.00-0.05
IPFWSum0.000.0650.0054.440.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0627.2728.77-0.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0616.6743.50-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0054.280.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0640.0043.53-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0638.4634.30-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0670.0059.860.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0034.55-0.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0614.2931.52-0.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0620.0034.83-0.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.0633.3338.75-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0627.2743.96-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.280.06100.0086.740.280.05
Oklahoma St.B120.280.0680.0058.040.170.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.510.0645.4543.17-0.05-0.01
West VirginiaB120.280.0690.9170.260.230.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0055.800.000.01
AlbanyAE0.310.0640.0054.66-0.060.01
Arizona St.P120.590.0654.5549.050.05-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0660.0064.660.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.280.0630.0037.19-0.11-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.069.0915.53-0.00-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0650.0058.250.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0611.1125.40-0.00-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0612.5029.75-0.00-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.280.0650.0053.920.000.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0052.960.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0636.3647.95-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0672.7372.880.000.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.006.54-0.00-0.05
SienaMAAC0.000.0633.3349.48-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0644.4449.08-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0654.5548.690.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0680.0073.560.000.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.280.0645.4545.06-0.03-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0666.6763.320.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0096.240.000.06
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0666.6765.440.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0666.6758.480.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0433.3341.93-0.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0454.5557.750.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0454.5545.090.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0485.7170.650.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0428.5738.37-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0450.0040.340.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0463.6461.500.000.01
UCLAP120.000.0466.6754.590.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0445.4537.63-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0490.9188.760.000.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0377.7858.610.000.01
CaliforniaP120.280.0390.9168.430.230.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0333.3346.57-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0337.5056.99-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.280.0333.3343.26-0.09-0.00
WashingtonP120.280.03100.0075.560.280.02
BrownIvy0.280.0340.0034.38-0.06-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0330.0030.65-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.310.0375.0061.160.150.01
PresbyterianBSth0.310.030.008.70-0.31-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.310.0357.1457.190.040.00
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0082.820.000.02
BelmontOVC0.280.0363.6464.930.080.01
BucknellPat0.280.0340.0037.24-0.06-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.280.0320.0027.60-0.17-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0078.190.000.02
DaytonA100.280.0380.0069.340.170.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0327.2729.51-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0390.9190.730.000.03
HartfordAE0.000.0354.5553.240.000.00
KansasB120.000.0390.0071.080.000.01
Kansas St.B120.280.0363.6440.220.08-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0330.0028.28-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.280.0370.0059.740.110.01
PortlandWCC0.310.0370.0050.570.120.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0340.0041.10-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.310.0363.6456.720.080.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0388.8956.070.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.0355.5635.910.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0325.0044.51-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.280.0360.0043.870.06-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.280.0337.5049.96-0.07-0.00
MassachusettsA100.280.0354.5551.400.030.00
Old DominionCUSA0.280.0390.0082.040.220.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.26-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0337.5027.75-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.280.0330.0035.75-0.11-0.01