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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Sam Houston St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:112.0
Current RPI:112
Expected SOS:269
Current SOS:269
Current Record:20-9
Expected Record:20-9
Current Conf Record:14-5
Expected Conf Record:14-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-2
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:121
Expected OOC SOS:260



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-9112.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sam Houston St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Texas Pan American (312.0)WACA73-77W100%0.0
11-14Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACA103-108W100%0.0
11-24Texas A&M (148.0)SECA79-62L0%0.0
11-26SMU (53.0)AmerA72-53L0%0.0
11-29Arkansas Pine Bluff (264.0)SWACN75-49W100%0.0
11-30Liberty (311.0)BSthN62-58L0%0.0
12-6James Madison (233.0)CAAN77-76W100%0.0
12-7Towson (95.0)CAAN67-55W100%0.0
12-14Toledo (38.0)MACA77-61L0%0.0
12-28LIU Brooklyn (297.0)NECH82-78W100%0.0
1-2Northwestern St. (158.0)SlndA104-107W100%0.0
1-4Stephen F. Austin (52.0)SlndA73-56L0%0.0
1-9McNeese St. (272.0)SlndH86-81W100%0.0
1-11Nicholls St. (262.0)SlndH88-61W100%0.0
1-16Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndA78-85W100%0.0
1-18New Orleans (260.0)SlndA70-77W100%0.0
1-30Texas A&M Corpus Chris (249.0)SlndH78-74W100%0.0
2-1Houston Baptist (341.0)SlndH81-63W100%0.0
2-8Lamar (344.0)SlndH84-70W100%0.0
2-13Northwestern St. (158.0)SlndH67-64W100%0.0
2-15Stephen F. Austin (52.0)SlndH60-67L0%0.0
2-22Lamar (344.0)SlndA71-74W100%0.0
2-27Central Arkansas (328.0)SlndA80-71L0%0.0
3-1Oral Roberts (191.0)SlndA80-73L0%0.0
3-6Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndH71-54W100%0.0
3-8New Orleans (260.0)SlndH80-61W100%0.0
3-13Oral Roberts (191.0)SlndN70-61W100%0.0
3-14Texas A&M Corpus Chris (249.0)SlndN63-69W100%0.0
3-15Stephen F. Austin (52.0)SlndN68-49L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sam Houston St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Sam Houston St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Sam Houston St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Sam Houston St.Slnd26.4626.4672.8772.8712.1012.10
Stephen F. AustinSlnd6.036.0392.3192.315.115.11
Northwestern St.Slnd4.364.3652.0052.000.170.17
LamarSlnd4.354.3511.5411.54-3.35-3.35
Oral RobertsSlnd4.314.3144.4444.44-0.48-0.48
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd4.234.2333.3333.33-1.41-1.41
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd4.224.2257.6957.690.650.65
New OrleansSlnd4.174.1740.0040.00-0.83-0.83
Nicholls St.Slnd2.702.7048.0048.00-0.11-0.11
McNeese St.Slnd2.692.6926.9226.92-1.24-1.24
Central ArkansasSlnd2.612.6120.8320.83-1.52-1.52
Houston BaptistSlnd2.522.5215.3815.38-1.75-1.75
Texas Pan AmericanWAC1.901.9026.6726.67-0.89-0.89
James MadisonCAA1.901.9036.6736.67-0.51-0.51
TowsonCAA1.901.9070.0070.000.760.76
Texas A&MSEC1.871.8751.6151.610.060.06
SMUAmer1.841.8470.9770.970.770.77
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.831.8339.2939.29-0.39-0.39
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.811.8131.2531.25-0.68-0.68
LIU BrooklynNEC1.791.7932.1432.14-0.64-0.64
LibertyBSth1.721.7225.0025.00-0.86-0.86
ToledoMAC1.721.7280.6580.651.061.06
LSUSEC0.290.2959.3859.380.060.06
North TexasCUSA0.250.2544.8344.83-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.230.2323.3323.33-0.12-0.12
Texas St.SB0.210.2120.6920.69-0.12-0.12
HoustonAmer0.200.2051.5251.520.010.01
RiceCUSA0.190.1917.8617.86-0.12-0.12
High PointBSth0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.160.1620.6920.69-0.10-0.10
AuburnSEC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.150.1522.2222.22-0.08-0.08
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.1542.4242.42-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
DelawareCAA0.140.1473.5373.530.070.07
MinnesotaB100.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
HofstraCAA0.140.1430.3030.30-0.05-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.140.1455.1755.170.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.1378.7978.790.080.08
BaylorB120.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
TexasB120.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
MissouriSEC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1246.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.1114.8114.81-0.08-0.08
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1170.9770.970.040.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Kansas St.B120.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
IPFWSum0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
WinthropBSth0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
AkronMAC0.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
WisconsinB100.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
VirginiaACC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
DetroitHorz0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
TroySB0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0634.6234.62-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0621.2121.21-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
George MasonA100.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.060.0678.7978.790.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Washington St.P120.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
RadfordBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
VMIBSth0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
WagnerNEC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
Rhode IslandA100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
OhioMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.020.02
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LehighPat0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01