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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Sam Houston St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:189.2
Current RPI:198
Expected SOS:245
Current SOS:253
Current Record:9-11
Expected Record:13-14
Current Conf Record:7-4
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-5
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:200
Expected OOC SOS:67



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-11141.02.05%
15-12159.313.58%
14-13176.328.53%
13-14193.830.41%
12-15211.717.86%
11-16230.06.43%
10-17250.61.08%
9-18272.20.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sam Houston St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14SMU (11.5)AmerA85-50L0%0.0
11-21Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCH81-86L0%0.0
11-23California (43.6)P12A89-63L0%0.0
11-27Bethune Cookman (301.5)MEACN46-71W100%0.0
12-2Texas Tech (65.0)B12A71-56L0%0.0
12-18LIU Brooklyn (286.2)NECA69-75W100%0.0
12-21UC Irvine (68.4)BWN63-53L0%0.0
12-22UTEP (236.1)CUSAA87-68L0%0.0
12-29North Texas (298.1)CUSAA69-64L0%0.0
1-2Incarnate Word (189.2)SlndA72-78W100%0.0
1-4Northwestern St. (332.6)SlndA79-94W100%0.0
1-9New Orleans (312.5)SlndH73-70W100%0.0
1-11Southeastern Louisiana (336.7)SlndH70-63W100%0.0
1-16McNeese St. (329.4)SlndA72-68L0%0.0
1-18Nicholls St. (323.6)SlndH87-76W100%0.0
1-23Stephen F. Austin (98.0)SlndA76-64L0%0.0
1-25Abilene Christian (318.7)SlndH72-51W100%0.0
1-30Houston Baptist (205.0)SlndA70-69L0%0.0
2-1Lamar (336.6)SlndA66-69W100%0.0
2-6Texas A&M Corpus Chris (113.2)SlndA51-48L0%0.0
2-13Houston Baptist (205.0)SlndH0-068%5.0
2-15Abilene Christian (318.7)SlndA0-068%5.0
2-20Central Arkansas (320.6)SlndA0-064%3.8
2-27Texas A&M Corpus Chris (113.2)SlndH0-051%0.2
2-29Central Arkansas (320.6)SlndA0-064%3.8
3-3Lamar (336.6)SlndH0-085%11.1
3-5Stephen F. Austin (98.0)SlndH0-031%-5.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sam Houston St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Sam Houston St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Sam Houston St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Sam Houston St.Slnd26.2226.3153.5755.011.872.64
Houston BaptistSlnd3.094.5747.3748.48-0.16-0.14
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd3.104.5475.0072.101.552.01
LamarSlnd3.154.5431.5831.07-1.16-1.72
Stephen F. AustinSlnd3.024.5470.5974.841.242.25
Abilene ChristianSlnd3.094.5336.8436.30-0.81-1.24
Central ArkansasSlnd0.654.4425.0029.53-0.32-1.82
Incarnate WordSlnd3.182.8856.2554.250.400.24
Nicholls St.Slnd3.232.7519.0521.90-2.00-1.55
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd3.042.7215.0025.77-2.13-1.32
McNeese St.Slnd3.092.7112.5026.09-2.32-1.30
New OrleansSlnd2.962.7129.4135.81-1.22-0.77
Northwestern St.Slnd3.082.7118.7527.73-1.92-1.21
North TexasCUSA2.711.9730.0030.65-1.08-0.76
Southern IllinoisMVC2.671.9570.8369.561.110.76
UTEPCUSA2.611.9150.0050.260.000.01
CaliforniaP122.571.8963.6461.590.700.44
LIU BrooklynNEC2.571.8950.0050.620.000.02
SMUAmer2.561.8890.4885.632.071.34
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.501.8533.3337.43-0.83-0.47
Texas TechB122.501.8557.1451.560.360.06
UC IrvineBW2.501.8571.4370.671.070.77
RiceCUSA0.430.3028.5729.66-0.18-0.12
UC RiversideBW0.240.2745.8341.65-0.02-0.05
TCUB120.300.2645.8339.34-0.02-0.06
UTSACUSA0.170.2313.6413.63-0.13-0.16
Florida A&MMEAC0.280.2325.0025.08-0.14-0.11
OklahomaB120.200.2086.9682.650.150.13
Arizona St.P120.190.2054.1751.690.020.01
BaylorB120.200.1772.7366.400.090.06
TulaneAmer0.200.1733.3332.36-0.07-0.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.1690.4886.910.050.12
Northern IowaMVC0.230.1654.1755.020.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.230.1665.2268.600.070.06
Texas St.SB0.190.1336.8437.57-0.05-0.03
UABCUSA0.180.1382.6179.370.120.08
MassachusettsA100.120.1340.9139.33-0.02-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.120.1337.5040.54-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.110.1320.8323.21-0.07-0.07
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1354.1750.940.010.00
Cal PolyBW0.120.1330.0034.55-0.05-0.04
TexasB120.170.1366.6762.200.060.03
TulsaAmer0.060.1365.2261.470.020.03
FIUCUSA0.110.1340.9145.30-0.02-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.1371.4368.760.050.05
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1331.5832.01-0.04-0.05
HawaiiBW0.110.1284.2181.660.080.08
ColoradoP120.220.1269.5765.330.090.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.109.0912.24-0.10-0.08
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1014.2915.46-0.08-0.07
NebraskaB100.120.1054.1751.880.010.00
MichiganB100.120.1069.5766.220.050.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.1077.2776.870.070.05
Colorado St.MWC0.120.1052.3850.420.010.00
New HampshireAE0.120.1057.1453.990.020.01
OaklandHorz0.110.1068.0067.980.040.04
PortlandWCC0.110.1040.0038.51-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.130.1079.1778.350.070.06
HowardMEAC0.060.1036.3638.92-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.120.1078.2677.860.070.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.1025.0033.22-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.120.1012.5012.90-0.09-0.07
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0934.7840.91-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.170.0959.0961.320.030.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0956.5262.790.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.120.0972.0071.540.050.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0922.7327.22-0.03-0.04
HoustonAmer0.170.0969.5766.580.070.03
MemphisAmer0.110.0960.8760.820.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.170.0943.4850.65-0.020.00
UCFAmer0.170.0950.0044.860.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.110.0979.1778.090.070.05
RichmondA100.170.0954.5554.470.020.01
KansasB120.110.0982.6179.190.070.05
East CarolinaAmer0.110.0943.4841.96-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.170.0942.8650.39-0.020.00
EvansvilleMVC0.110.0975.0076.250.050.05
OregonP120.110.0982.6179.220.070.05
StanfordP120.170.0950.0046.540.00-0.01
UtahP120.170.0969.5767.500.060.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.0757.8961.740.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0726.0929.17-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0761.9059.540.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0745.0046.13-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0734.7836.50-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0745.4554.14-0.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.060.0752.0048.860.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0731.8232.69-0.03-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.130.0750.0053.100.000.00
RiderMAAC0.060.0740.0042.11-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.070.0756.5253.270.010.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0742.8639.22-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.060.0752.1750.420.000.00
FurmanSC0.060.0754.1754.060.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0772.7367.630.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0721.7420.37-0.00-0.04
WisconsinB100.060.0760.8755.830.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.0625.0026.39-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0613.0413.55-0.04-0.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.0650.0051.920.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.120.0669.5764.890.050.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.0640.0045.50-0.02-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0629.1733.12-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0628.0030.73-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.110.0634.7837.05-0.03-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0652.1754.170.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0637.5043.38-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0650.0049.460.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.060.0623.8127.67-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.050.0663.6465.020.010.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.0624.0025.67-0.06-0.03
BrownIvy0.110.0631.5831.07-0.04-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.110.0650.0051.210.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.0671.4369.410.050.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.0647.8350.19-0.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.0668.1871.320.040.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.0645.4546.24-0.01-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.0614.2920.67-0.08-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.110.0672.7372.110.050.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0628.5728.55-0.02-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0673.9172.480.000.03
Iowa St.B120.060.0673.9170.050.030.02
Kansas St.B120.060.0660.8758.300.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0645.4551.34-0.010.00
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0645.8342.26-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.110.0620.0019.68-0.07-0.04
UC DavisBW0.060.0640.0036.76-0.01-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0635.0032.27-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.110.0665.2260.590.030.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.110.0685.7185.380.080.04
Washington St.P120.050.0636.3631.98-0.01-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0652.1751.910.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.0643.4842.66-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0639.1337.81-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0661.9056.430.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.100.0673.9176.720.050.03
AuburnSEC0.070.0439.1335.43-0.02-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0442.8646.35-0.01-0.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0462.5058.930.020.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0447.6249.35-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.070.0479.1774.040.040.02
LSUSEC0.070.0465.2260.260.020.01
PurdueB100.070.0480.0077.930.040.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0442.1145.67-0.01-0.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0425.0023.40-0.04-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.070.0460.8757.190.020.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0450.0045.840.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.070.0460.8756.430.020.00
NorthwesternB100.070.0464.0062.060.020.01
AkronMAC0.060.0382.6181.140.040.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0344.0045.31-0.01-0.00
CreightonBE0.060.0364.0062.090.020.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0331.5831.75-0.02-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0355.0052.190.010.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0345.4547.57-0.01-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.060.0352.1751.510.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0382.6181.120.040.02
IdahoBSky0.060.0354.5554.950.010.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0350.0054.200.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0350.0049.830.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0334.7837.17-0.02-0.01
MaineAE0.050.0333.3333.13-0.02-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0329.1733.74-0.02-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0320.0022.32-0.04-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0319.0525.89-0.04-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.060.0358.3360.730.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0324.0024.55-0.03-0.02
SamfordSC0.060.0341.6742.60-0.01-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0338.1037.68-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0361.9065.300.010.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0331.8230.06-0.02-0.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0360.8762.040.010.01
TroySB0.060.0323.8126.71-0.03-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0334.7835.65-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0340.0040.31-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0363.6462.590.020.01
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0329.1726.74-0.02-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0378.2676.810.000.02
High PointBSth0.060.0355.0057.460.010.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0339.1338.57-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0326.0927.79-0.03-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0343.4843.78-0.01-0.00
PacificWCC0.060.0325.0028.89-0.03-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0330.4331.20-0.02-0.01
TempleAmer0.060.0363.6459.810.020.01
Utah St.MWC0.060.0347.6249.40-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.060.0373.6874.680.030.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0345.4538.44-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0360.0057.940.010.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0345.4549.67-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0336.3633.54-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0347.6244.99-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0317.3920.65-0.03-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0313.6415.77-0.04-0.02
USCP120.000.0378.2673.050.000.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0383.3378.470.040.02
WashingtonP120.000.0365.2261.100.000.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0343.4842.49-0.01-0.00