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Through games of Dec 19, 2014.


Holy Cross

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:158.5
Current RPI:114
Expected SOS:176
Current SOS:123
Current Record:4-3
Expected Record:14-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:122
Expected OOC SOS:114



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-538.00.01%
21-655.20.10%
20-762.30.29%
19-876.81.36%
18-991.03.87%
17-10107.68.50%
16-11125.314.22%
15-12143.717.88%
14-13163.119.63%
13-14183.716.26%
12-15205.110.05%
11-16226.85.07%
10-17248.11.88%
9-18269.50.65%
8-19288.40.18%
7-20294.70.03%
6-21313.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Holy Cross.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Harvard (50.1)IvyN57-58W100%0.0
11-19Brown (246.4)IvyH80-65W100%0.0
11-28Syracuse (69.8)ACCA72-48L0%0.0
12-3Albany (226.3)AEA57-74W100%0.0
12-6Sacred Heart (155.1)NECA81-68L0%0.0
12-9Hartford (214.7)AEH61-79L0%0.0
12-12NJIT (232.9)indH76-66W100%0.0
12-21Canisius (127.5)MAACA0-028%-6.9
12-23Pittsburgh (115.2)ACCA0-019%-10.4
12-31Boston University (200.6)PatH0-070%6.2
1-3American (102.4)PatA0-024%-8.3
1-7Colgate (186.1)PatA0-032%-5.6
1-10Bucknell (257.4)PatH0-080%10.1
1-14Army (144.7)PatH0-056%1.8
1-17Lehigh (181.5)PatA0-038%-3.7
1-21Lafayette (88.3)PatH0-048%-0.7
1-24Navy (321.4)PatH0-090%15.2
1-28Loyola MD (294.6)PatA0-067%5.2
2-2American (102.4)PatH0-051%0.4
2-5Colgate (186.1)PatH0-060%3.1
2-8Bucknell (257.4)PatA0-055%1.4
2-11Army (144.7)PatA0-028%-6.9
2-14Lehigh (181.5)PatH0-066%5.0
2-18Lafayette (88.3)PatA0-021%-9.4
2-22Navy (321.4)PatA0-071%6.5
2-25Loyola MD (294.6)PatH0-088%13.9
2-28Boston University (200.6)PatA0-041%-2.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Holy Cross's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Holy Cross's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Holy Cross.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Holy CrossPat27.7926.4558.0655.184.482.74
ColgatePat0.844.8320.0042.29-0.51-0.74
LafayettePat0.454.7975.0070.570.221.97
AmericanPat0.364.7760.0064.920.071.42
BucknellPat0.404.7740.0036.58-0.08-1.28
Boston UniversityPat0.514.7633.3342.41-0.17-0.72
Loyola MDPat0.404.7633.3327.95-0.13-2.10
LehighPat0.004.7637.5047.66-0.00-0.22
NavyPat0.004.7320.0021.78-0.00-2.67
ArmyPat0.004.7377.7869.710.001.86
AlbanyAE7.472.1237.5050.53-1.870.02
Sacred HeartNEC7.502.0442.8656.95-1.070.28
SyracuseACC7.142.0462.5056.941.790.28
BrownIvy7.142.0244.4434.72-0.79-0.62
HarvardIvy7.141.98100.0075.817.141.02
NJITind7.541.9840.0042.93-1.51-0.28
HartfordAE7.591.9544.4448.98-0.84-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.001.9255.5661.220.000.43
PittsburghACC0.001.9166.6751.900.000.07
ColumbiaIvy0.000.4562.5064.770.000.13
BinghamtonAE0.000.390.0011.87-0.00-0.30
YaleIvy0.360.3372.7366.650.160.11
UMass LowellAE1.100.3355.5654.330.120.03
CornellIvy0.000.3255.5648.170.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.400.3250.0062.120.000.08
New HampshireAE0.000.3257.1464.570.000.09
UMBCAE0.000.3010.0020.97-0.00-0.17
Stony BrookAE0.000.2933.3355.14-0.000.03
MaineAE0.320.2711.1121.27-0.25-0.16
PennIvy0.000.2737.5033.00-0.00-0.09
QuinnipiacMAAC0.750.2644.4449.63-0.08-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.2537.5038.31-0.00-0.06
BryantNEC0.360.2328.5746.99-0.15-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.2244.4440.07-0.00-0.04
SienaMAAC0.400.2233.3348.90-0.13-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.360.2150.0046.960.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.2033.3340.96-0.00-0.04
VermontAE0.870.2044.4457.69-0.100.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.710.1936.3647.58-0.19-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.19100.0081.870.000.12
MaristMAAC0.000.1910.0018.65-0.00-0.12
NortheasternCAA0.510.1766.6757.890.170.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.320.1633.3344.60-0.11-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.320.1622.2240.60-0.18-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.360.1622.2230.49-0.20-0.06
Arizona St.P120.000.1660.0053.630.000.01
RiderMAAC0.360.1650.0053.130.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1638.4644.31-0.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.360.1612.5029.32-0.27-0.07
Notre DameACC0.000.1690.9172.430.000.07
DukeACC0.000.16100.0087.560.000.12
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1666.6742.760.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.1333.3338.93-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.400.1345.4550.81-0.040.00
MichiganB100.720.1355.5642.460.08-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1328.5741.46-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1330.0039.58-0.00-0.03
WagnerNEC0.000.1314.2933.57-0.00-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.750.1372.7353.500.340.01
La SalleA100.000.1250.0049.930.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.1250.0038.520.00-0.03
VirginiaACC0.000.10100.0085.760.000.07
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0922.2237.84-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.360.0972.7365.120.160.03
CampbellBSth0.450.0925.0044.56-0.22-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.450.0970.0060.840.180.02
Ohio St.B100.450.0990.0084.460.360.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.400.0972.7367.410.180.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0950.0038.230.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.09100.0085.970.000.06
Virginia TechACC0.000.0955.5638.620.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.510.0760.0055.280.100.01
DuquesneA100.320.0728.5731.22-0.14-0.03
St. John'sBE0.720.0788.8964.830.560.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0757.1461.580.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0777.7869.970.000.03
DelawareCAA0.000.070.007.43-0.00-0.06
DePaulBE0.000.0760.0034.020.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.0788.8969.210.000.03
KentuckySEC0.000.07100.0095.110.000.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0754.5559.120.000.01
USCP120.000.0760.0036.070.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0790.0067.450.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.0680.0072.370.000.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6772.800.000.03
Michigan St.B100.000.0672.7373.190.000.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0644.4456.59-0.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0655.5640.440.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0690.0055.490.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0616.6730.30-0.00-0.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0666.6751.280.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0065.210.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0616.6737.98-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0690.9153.570.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.008.14-0.00-0.05
TempleAmer0.000.0663.6455.560.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0660.0058.890.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0660.0044.120.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0677.7851.830.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0681.8266.320.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0670.0072.100.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0681.8264.670.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0440.0046.66-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0430.0043.48-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.320.0460.0049.590.06-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.040.0035.39-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.510.0450.0052.110.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0436.3644.80-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.510.0471.4347.640.22-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0344.4450.85-0.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0377.7865.880.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.360.0322.2230.55-0.20-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0377.7870.500.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.360.0333.3333.03-0.12-0.01
NorthwesternB100.360.0360.0040.370.07-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.360.030.0039.69-0.36-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5073.430.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0322.2242.00-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.400.0375.0049.970.20-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0360.0034.920.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.400.0390.9168.690.320.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0377.7869.590.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6754.760.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0380.0057.340.000.00
IowaB100.400.0372.7362.430.180.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0360.0037.150.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.400.0336.3633.52-0.11-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0340.0050.17-0.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0330.0031.32-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3331.23-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0370.0073.030.000.01