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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Holy Cross

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:183.0
Current RPI:145
Expected SOS:181
Current SOS:122
Current Record:3-4
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-5
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:141
Expected OOC SOS:137



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-860.50.02%
22-975.80.11%
21-1087.60.43%
20-11100.31.22%
19-12115.03.56%
18-13129.36.55%
17-14144.710.98%
16-15161.815.58%
15-16179.316.98%
14-17196.616.21%
13-18213.912.58%
12-19232.08.47%
11-20248.64.42%
10-21264.01.97%
9-22279.10.73%
8-23289.00.13%
7-24298.20.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Holy Cross.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13South Carolina (17.4)SECA81-49L0%0.0
11-15Syracuse (39.6)ACCA90-46L0%0.0
11-20Massachusetts (108.4)A10H60-68L0%0.0
11-22Harvard (224.3)IvyA52-63W100%0.0
11-25South Carolina St. (304.2)MEACH73-57W100%0.0
11-27Monmouth (65.5)MAACH77-80L0%0.0
11-30Albany (156.7)AEA49-55W100%0.0
12-3New Hampshire (156.1)AEA0-036%-4.4
12-7Maine (310.8)AEA0-067%5.3
12-11Quinnipiac (268.6)MAACH0-071%6.6
12-18Rhode Island (33.6)A10A0-06%-18.2
12-21Sacred Heart (299.9)NECA0-063%4.1
12-23Marist (236.1)MAACH0-072%6.8
12-30Boston University (172.4)PatA0-031%-5.9
1-2Navy (221.2)PatH0-061%3.4
1-5Colgate (231.7)PatA0-044%-1.8
1-8Bucknell (97.9)PatH0-040%-3.1
1-11Lafayette (279.9)PatH0-075%8.3
1-14Lehigh (83.7)PatA0-017%-11.5
1-18Army (208.3)PatA0-039%-3.5
1-23American (262.3)PatH0-068%5.7
1-25Loyola MD (218.3)PatA0-046%-1.1
1-28Navy (221.2)PatA0-041%-2.8
2-1Colgate (231.7)PatH0-064%4.4
2-6Bucknell (97.9)PatA0-022%-9.3
2-8Lafayette (279.9)PatA0-057%2.1
2-12Lehigh (83.7)PatH0-033%-5.3
2-15Army (208.3)PatH0-059%2.7
2-19American (262.3)PatA0-048%-0.5
2-22Loyola MD (218.3)PatH0-066%5.0
2-25Boston University (172.4)PatH0-051%0.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Holy Cross's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Holy Cross's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Holy Cross.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Holy CrossPat29.4126.3645.9549.60-2.38-0.21
Boston UniversityPat0.004.2050.0053.130.000.26
ColgatePat0.604.1720.0041.00-0.36-0.75
AmericanPat0.004.1516.6735.21-0.00-1.23
ArmyPat0.004.1433.3345.16-0.00-0.40
LafayettePat0.004.1433.3331.72-0.00-1.51
BucknellPat0.004.1275.0067.560.001.45
NavyPat0.004.1228.5743.23-0.00-0.56
LehighPat0.004.1133.3366.38-0.001.35
Loyola MDPat0.004.1133.3340.24-0.00-0.80
MonmouthMAAC8.961.8666.6770.622.990.77
New HampshireAE0.001.8350.0057.220.000.26
MaineAE0.001.8116.6725.35-0.00-0.89
AlbanyAE7.141.8160.0062.461.430.45
SyracuseACC8.881.8160.0069.151.780.69
MaristMAAC0.001.7742.8635.92-0.00-0.50
QuinnipiacMAAC0.511.7416.6734.49-0.34-0.54
MassachusettsA108.041.7080.0056.684.820.23
South CarolinaSEC8.961.69100.0080.118.961.02
South Carolina St.MEAC8.761.690.0028.84-8.76-0.72
Rhode IslandA100.001.6971.4369.530.000.66
Sacred HeartNEC0.001.6742.8638.10-0.00-0.40
HarvardIvy7.741.640.0044.83-7.74-0.17
UMass LowellAE0.600.3625.0040.81-0.30-0.07
FairfieldMAAC0.000.3583.3362.080.000.08
BinghamtonAE0.000.3342.8640.94-0.00-0.06
ColumbiaIvy0.000.3142.8642.47-0.00-0.05
Stony BrookAE0.000.2816.6733.82-0.00-0.09
VermontAE0.510.2862.5071.630.130.12
HartfordAE0.000.2812.5022.55-0.00-0.15
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.2760.0052.760.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.2625.0063.95-0.000.07
CornellIvy0.510.2528.5730.63-0.22-0.10
CanisiusMAAC0.000.2433.3341.52-0.00-0.04
SienaMAAC0.600.2428.5750.51-0.260.00
UMBCAE0.000.2280.0055.340.000.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.2212.5048.98-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.2260.0051.780.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.2133.3338.19-0.00-0.05
BrownIvy0.600.2050.0042.420.00-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1983.3357.990.000.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1916.6729.36-0.00-0.08
RiderMAAC0.000.1850.0047.990.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.1840.0057.97-0.000.03
YaleIvy0.000.1833.3364.14-0.000.05
DartmouthIvy0.000.170.0023.47-0.00-0.09
NortheasternCAA0.000.1757.1448.240.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.1728.5750.20-0.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1740.0043.86-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.1637.5034.65-0.00-0.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1650.0046.780.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1625.0039.28-0.00-0.03
WagnerNEC0.600.1633.3353.85-0.200.01
IonaMAAC0.000.1660.0070.140.000.06
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1616.6727.03-0.00-0.07
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.140.0038.35-0.00-0.03
Notre DameACC0.000.14100.0075.010.000.07
St. BonaventureA100.000.1366.6770.740.000.06
HowardMEAC0.000.120.0038.26-0.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1185.7168.390.000.04
VillanovaBE0.000.11100.0083.120.000.07
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1166.6766.100.000.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1171.4343.020.00-0.02
NJITASun0.000.1142.8650.32-0.000.00
FordhamA100.000.1157.1443.680.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.510.1142.8636.82-0.07-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1150.0027.250.00-0.05
ProvidenceBE0.000.1171.4356.280.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1120.0034.22-0.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.1187.5078.680.000.06
RichmondA100.000.1057.1448.600.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.000.0920.0049.38-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.090.0034.23-0.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.890.0957.1444.160.13-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0866.6753.460.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0833.3338.76-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0871.4350.570.000.00
Penn St.B100.600.0862.5043.960.15-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0883.3368.880.000.03
DaytonA100.000.0866.6772.440.000.04
MississippiSEC0.600.0871.4346.010.26-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0840.0037.65-0.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0857.1448.860.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0857.1442.940.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0816.6740.71-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0871.4352.370.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0018.22-0.00-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0034.18-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0024.19-0.00-0.03
HoustonAmer0.000.0683.3376.370.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.650.000.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0650.0054.490.000.01
XavierBE0.000.06100.0074.800.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0657.1459.480.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0671.4365.740.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.32-0.00-0.03
TempleAmer0.600.0671.4363.570.260.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0042.710.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0614.2929.15-0.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0662.5056.500.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0650.0051.260.000.00
MarylandB100.000.0685.7156.490.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0061.810.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0685.7172.660.000.03
OregonP120.000.0671.4366.730.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0666.6758.420.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0022.69-0.00-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0642.8637.60-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0525.0033.54-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.600.0585.7180.960.430.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0587.5075.320.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0566.6754.380.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0571.4354.520.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0525.0034.47-0.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0540.0027.05-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0533.3338.20-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.600.0550.0056.260.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0585.7159.740.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0533.3326.75-0.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.0585.7178.150.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0585.7162.920.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.05100.0075.690.000.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.0566.6739.720.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0585.7175.950.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0585.7180.010.000.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0585.7155.550.000.01
StanfordP120.890.0375.0059.100.450.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0325.0053.29-0.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0019.51-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6737.09-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0366.6775.370.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.040.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.550.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.710.0371.4386.030.310.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0360.0070.500.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6756.020.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0383.3362.840.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0383.3355.200.000.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0340.0061.37-0.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0340.0050.91-0.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0316.6733.69-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.060.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3346.81-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0086.250.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0024.66-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.510.0340.0067.95-0.100.01
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.770.00-0.00
MichiganB100.510.0371.4366.530.220.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0366.6765.810.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0357.1469.300.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6732.240.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7174.430.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0340.0055.44-0.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.0385.7170.990.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0340.0040.65-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0055.850.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0350.0047.560.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.410.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0357.1440.550.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0328.5730.29-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0314.2931.71-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.0350.0049.010.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0337.5036.24-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0328.5733.92-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0383.3374.620.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0082.550.000.02
WisconsinB100.600.0375.0073.840.300.01