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Through games of Feb 4, 2016.


Holy Cross

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:285.4
Current RPI:282
Expected SOS:306
Current SOS:300
Current Record:9-13
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:4-7
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-10
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:238
Expected OOC SOS:299



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13203.00.04%
15-14220.90.45%
14-15240.33.88%
13-16259.514.47%
12-17278.329.57%
11-18294.931.97%
10-19308.716.52%
9-20320.23.09%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Holy Cross.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Marist (319.1)MAACA64-67W100%0.0
11-16Brown (295.6)IvyA71-55L0%0.0
11-19New Hampshire (205.8)AEH69-73L0%0.0
11-22Quinnipiac (266.0)MAACA62-56L0%0.0
11-25Sacred Heart (283.9)NECH69-60W100%0.0
11-29Harvard (189.0)IvyH50-49W100%0.0
12-2Rhode Island (105.0)A10A74-56L0%0.0
12-5Albany (96.7)AEH84-88L0%0.0
12-9Kansas (6.1)B12A92-59L0%0.0
12-12Hartford (313.8)AEA68-90W100%0.0
12-21Maine (289.8)AEH76-75W100%0.0
12-30Boston University (198.8)PatH80-64W100%0.0
1-2Navy (175.0)PatA65-60L0%0.0
1-6Colgate (233.8)PatH65-63W100%0.0
1-9Bucknell (175.2)PatA98-71L0%0.0
1-13Lafayette (311.2)PatA65-52L0%0.0
1-16Lehigh (226.7)PatH66-87L0%0.0
1-20Army (210.4)PatH69-65W100%0.0
1-24Colgate (233.8)PatA76-61L0%0.0
1-27Loyola MD (244.7)PatH54-71L0%0.0
1-30Navy (175.0)PatH87-80W100%0.0
2-1American (256.6)PatA58-45L0%0.0
2-6Bucknell (175.2)PatH0-028%-6.5
2-10Lafayette (311.2)PatH0-069%5.3
2-15Lehigh (226.7)PatA0-021%-8.6
2-17Army (210.4)PatA0-019%-9.5
2-21American (256.6)PatH0-066%4.5
2-24Loyola MD (244.7)PatA0-029%-6.1
2-27Boston University (198.8)PatA0-020%-9.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Holy Cross's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Holy Cross's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Holy Cross.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Holy CrossPat26.3926.4138.8938.41-5.86-6.12
Boston UniversityPat3.184.5454.5555.460.290.50
AmericanPat3.074.4728.5730.17-1.32-1.77
ArmyPat3.014.4757.1457.150.430.64
ColgatePat5.174.4742.1143.04-0.82-0.62
Loyola MDPat2.964.4428.5730.57-1.27-1.73
NavyPat5.074.4266.6766.311.691.44
BucknellPat2.904.4150.0054.480.000.40
LafayettePat2.894.3720.0022.12-1.74-2.44
LehighPat2.844.3426.3231.86-1.34-1.58
New HampshireAE2.702.1150.0049.650.00-0.01
AlbanyAE2.702.0872.7374.141.231.01
MaineAE2.602.0238.1036.85-0.62-0.53
HartfordAE2.541.9627.2727.39-1.15-0.89
QuinnipiacMAAC2.581.9635.0035.25-0.77-0.58
BrownIvy2.491.9025.0027.01-1.24-0.88
MaristMAAC2.491.9020.0022.10-1.50-1.06
HarvardIvy2.381.8741.1844.45-0.42-0.21
Sacred HeartNEC2.431.8433.3336.42-0.81-0.50
Rhode IslandA102.391.8252.3854.490.110.16
KansasB122.391.8180.0076.221.430.95
Stony BrookAE0.370.4280.0082.450.220.27
BinghamtonAE0.420.4222.7326.19-0.23-0.20
UMBCAE0.520.4220.8325.00-0.30-0.21
VermontAE0.430.3356.5258.380.060.06
UMass LowellAE0.360.3333.3332.89-0.12-0.11
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.270.3041.6746.85-0.04-0.02
CornellIvy0.270.2847.0643.12-0.02-0.04
YaleIvy0.340.2870.5972.600.140.12
FairfieldMAAC0.270.2754.5553.540.020.02
SienaMAAC0.260.2765.2266.710.080.09
ColumbiaIvy0.170.2568.4265.480.060.08
PrincetonIvy0.180.2568.7573.150.070.12
DartmouthIvy0.340.2535.2933.93-0.10-0.08
PennIvy0.220.2431.2532.68-0.08-0.08
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.280.2440.0042.55-0.06-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.270.2443.4845.72-0.04-0.02
BryantNEC0.290.2126.0927.58-0.14-0.10
St. Francis PANEC0.210.2147.6249.34-0.01-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.330.2126.0926.65-0.16-0.10
Robert MorrisNEC0.160.1825.0029.52-0.08-0.08
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.160.1852.3853.800.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.110.1845.0043.24-0.01-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.260.1834.7841.60-0.08-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.210.1878.2680.340.120.11
RiderMAAC0.260.1839.1342.27-0.06-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.220.1513.6413.79-0.16-0.11
George WashingtonA100.160.1577.2771.670.090.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.150.1550.0050.870.000.00
WagnerNEC0.210.1561.9063.360.050.04
NJITASun0.150.1552.1754.520.010.01
FordhamA100.210.1557.8954.300.030.01
TCUB120.210.1545.4537.84-0.02-0.04
IonaMAAC0.210.1557.1457.700.030.02
MassachusettsA100.160.1442.8639.88-0.02-0.03
SyracuseACC0.170.1366.6762.710.060.03
ProvidenceBE0.230.1278.2671.960.130.05
La SalleA100.110.1221.0520.90-0.06-0.07
KentuckySEC0.150.1172.7369.690.070.05
USC UpstateASun0.200.1123.8125.04-0.10-0.06
Boston CollegeACC0.170.0931.8226.63-0.06-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.160.0972.7372.460.070.04
George MasonA100.110.0936.3635.32-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.100.0966.6763.490.030.02
TowsonCAA0.100.0963.6457.320.030.01
NortheasternCAA0.110.0947.8348.71-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.120.0990.4884.910.090.06
St. BonaventureA100.100.0970.0069.090.040.03
VCUA100.050.0977.2776.770.030.05
JacksonvilleASun0.150.0947.6247.86-0.01-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.100.0920.8320.11-0.06-0.05
PurdueB100.060.0682.6178.230.040.04
SMUAmer0.130.0690.4885.540.100.05
VirginiaACC0.060.0681.8276.020.040.03
Georgia TechACC0.110.0654.5552.770.010.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0652.1749.340.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.050.0647.8343.65-0.00-0.01
USCP120.050.0678.2673.090.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0645.4542.13-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0642.8635.05-0.01-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0621.7424.61-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0642.8647.26-0.01-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0660.0061.320.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0663.6459.440.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0627.2732.87-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0650.0048.260.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0665.0060.810.020.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0631.8233.76-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.110.0660.0054.580.020.01
BaylorB120.050.0676.1967.340.030.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.0661.9059.920.020.01
FloridaSEC0.100.0668.1867.800.040.02
FurmanSC0.100.0654.5553.780.010.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0672.7368.840.020.02
IPFWSum0.100.0673.9170.210.050.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0659.0955.560.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0650.0045.740.00-0.00
OregonP120.100.0681.8278.220.060.03
TexasB120.050.0668.1861.760.020.01
Texas TechB120.050.0661.9054.010.010.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.0630.0033.57-0.04-0.02
VMISC0.100.0616.6718.98-0.07-0.04
West VirginiaB120.050.0681.8278.720.030.03
Saint LouisA100.100.0638.1033.39-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0685.7181.210.000.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.0681.8277.420.070.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0333.3333.55-0.02-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0328.5734.73-0.03-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0356.5253.440.010.00
AuburnSEC0.060.0342.8637.22-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.060.0369.5773.040.020.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0340.0042.58-0.01-0.00
WoffordSC0.060.0338.1043.38-0.02-0.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0322.7323.65-0.03-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0368.1865.430.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0366.6761.680.020.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0319.0522.38-0.03-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0365.2256.540.020.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0326.3236.92-0.03-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0381.8277.490.030.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0382.6181.380.040.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0355.5660.910.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0368.1869.350.020.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0330.0029.98-0.02-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0371.4370.810.020.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0372.7371.670.020.01
UCLAP120.050.0356.5253.330.010.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0359.0962.730.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0322.7323.38-0.03-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0357.8955.420.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.0366.6758.770.000.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0372.7368.010.020.01
MarylandB100.050.0386.9681.750.040.02
NebraskaB100.050.0352.1751.550.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0354.5561.940.000.01
RichmondA100.050.0352.3853.670.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0380.9583.030.030.02