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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Holy Cross

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:204.0
Current RPI:204
Expected SOS:233
Current SOS:233
Current Record:15-17
Expected Record:15-17
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-6
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:158
Expected OOC SOS:168



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-17204.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Holy Cross.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13South Carolina (42.0)SECA81-49L0%0.0
11-15Syracuse (84.0)ACCA90-46L0%0.0
11-20Massachusetts (195.0)A10N60-68L0%0.0
11-22Harvard (143.0)IvyA52-63W100%0.0
11-25South Carolina St. (299.0)MEACH73-57W100%0.0
11-27Monmouth (49.0)MAACH77-80L0%0.0
11-30Albany (129.0)AEA49-55W100%0.0
12-3New Hampshire (127.0)AEA56-53L0%0.0
12-7Maine (322.0)AEA55-53L0%0.0
12-11Quinnipiac (272.0)MAACH75-57W100%0.0
12-18Rhode Island (31.0)A10A65-54L0%0.0
12-21Sacred Heart (304.0)NECA67-72W100%0.0
12-23Marist (276.0)MAACH68-59W100%0.0
12-30Boston University (187.0)PatA61-55L0%0.0
1-2Navy (208.0)PatH51-50W100%0.0
1-5Colgate (294.0)PatA61-67W100%0.0
1-8Bucknell (63.0)PatH49-68L0%0.0
1-11Lafayette (321.0)PatH71-54W100%0.0
1-14Lehigh (97.0)PatA68-51L0%0.0
1-18Army (266.0)PatA76-85W100%0.0
1-23American (310.0)PatH63-55W100%0.0
1-25Loyola MD (212.0)PatA65-62L0%0.0
1-28Navy (208.0)PatA60-47L0%0.0
2-1Colgate (294.0)PatH56-50W100%0.0
2-6Bucknell (63.0)PatA82-68L0%0.0
2-8Lafayette (321.0)PatA69-59L0%0.0
2-12Lehigh (97.0)PatH61-45W100%0.0
2-15Army (266.0)PatH47-52L0%0.0
2-19American (310.0)PatA54-69W100%0.0
2-22Loyola MD (212.0)PatH63-62W100%0.0
2-25Boston University (187.0)PatH68-71L0%0.0
3-2Navy (208.0)PatA49-42L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Holy Cross's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Holy Cross's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Holy Cross.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Holy CrossPat26.3726.3750.0050.00-0.00-0.00
NavyPat5.545.5446.4346.43-0.40-0.40
BucknellPat4.174.1775.0075.002.092.09
Boston UniversityPat4.174.1751.7251.720.140.14
LehighPat4.134.1362.0762.071.001.00
ArmyPat4.114.1137.9337.93-0.99-0.99
Loyola MDPat4.094.0946.4346.43-0.29-0.29
ColgatePat4.094.0931.0331.03-1.55-1.55
AmericanPat4.064.0628.5728.57-1.74-1.74
LafayettePat4.064.0625.9325.93-1.95-1.95
MonmouthMAAC1.791.7981.2581.251.121.12
New HampshireAE1.761.7657.1457.140.250.25
AlbanyAE1.741.7462.5062.500.440.44
MaineAE1.741.7416.6716.67-1.16-1.16
SyracuseACC1.741.7454.8454.840.170.17
MaristMAAC1.711.7125.8125.81-0.83-0.83
QuinnipiacMAAC1.681.6833.3333.33-0.56-0.56
MassachusettsA101.641.6443.7543.75-0.20-0.20
South CarolinaSEC1.641.6466.6766.670.550.55
South Carolina St.MEAC1.641.6432.1432.14-0.58-0.58
Rhode IslandA101.631.6371.8871.880.710.71
Sacred HeartNEC1.621.6241.9441.94-0.26-0.26
HarvardIvy1.591.5964.0064.000.440.44
VermontAE0.330.3384.8584.850.230.23
UMass LowellAE0.330.3333.3333.33-0.11-0.11
FairfieldMAAC0.320.3253.3353.330.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.310.3138.4638.46-0.07-0.07
BinghamtonAE0.300.3031.0331.03-0.12-0.12
HartfordAE0.300.3028.1228.12-0.13-0.13
Stony BrookAE0.280.2858.0658.060.040.04
UMBCAE0.250.2557.1457.140.040.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.250.2559.3859.380.050.05
CanisiusMAAC0.250.2554.5554.550.020.02
SienaMAAC0.240.2450.0050.000.000.00
CornellIvy0.240.2425.0025.00-0.12-0.12
PrincetonIvy0.230.2378.5778.570.130.13
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.220.2255.8855.880.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.200.2030.3030.30-0.08-0.08
ManhattanMAAC0.190.1931.2531.25-0.07-0.07
La SalleA100.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
PennIvy0.190.1946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.190.1960.7160.710.040.04
BrownIvy0.180.1839.2939.29-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.180.1810.0010.00-0.14-0.14
LIU BrooklynNEC0.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
RiderMAAC0.170.1754.5554.550.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.160.1625.9325.93-0.08-0.08
NortheasternCAA0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.150.1531.2531.25-0.06-0.06
WagnerNEC0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
IonaMAAC0.150.1564.7164.710.040.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.150.1542.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
HowardMEAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
VillanovaBE0.110.1191.1891.180.090.09
NJITASun0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1028.1228.12-0.05-0.05
DrexelCAA0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
FurmanSC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
FordhamA100.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.100.1077.1477.140.050.05
DavidsonA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
RichmondA100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
ClemsonACC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Miami FLACC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
High PointBSth0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Ohio St.B100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Penn St.B100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
DaytonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
George MasonA100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
VCUA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
CreightonBE0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
StanfordP120.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.9796.970.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
DelawareCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
WisconsinB100.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
PacificWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
UCFAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00