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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Holy Cross

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:200.0
Current RPI:200
Expected SOS:168
Current SOS:168
Current Record:13-16
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-5
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:133
Expected OOC SOS:64



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16200.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Holy Cross.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Harvard (52.0)IvyN57-58W100%0.0
11-19Brown (248.0)IvyH80-65W100%0.0
11-28Syracuse (69.0)ACCA72-48L0%0.0
12-3Albany (99.0)AEA57-74W100%0.0
12-6Sacred Heart (242.0)NECA81-68L0%0.0
12-9Hartford (244.0)AEH61-79L0%0.0
12-12NJIT (159.0)indH76-66W100%0.0
12-21Canisius (180.0)MAACA67-48L0%0.0
12-23Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCA58-39L0%0.0
12-31Boston University (198.0)PatH72-75L0%0.0
1-3American (135.0)PatA53-49L0%0.0
1-7Colgate (194.0)PatA74-60L0%0.0
1-10Bucknell (136.0)PatH65-62W100%0.0
1-14Army (235.0)PatH70-72L0%0.0
1-17Lehigh (175.0)PatA69-64L0%0.0
1-21Lafayette (122.0)PatH74-73W100%0.0
1-24Navy (252.0)PatH76-65W100%0.0
1-29Loyola MD (270.0)PatA64-54L0%0.0
2-2American (135.0)PatH50-57L0%0.0
2-5Colgate (194.0)PatH70-60W100%0.0
2-8Bucknell (136.0)PatA70-57L0%0.0
2-11Army (235.0)PatA64-73W100%0.0
2-14Lehigh (175.0)PatH58-52W100%0.0
2-18Lafayette (122.0)PatA89-81L0%0.0
2-22Navy (252.0)PatA84-70L0%0.0
2-25Loyola MD (270.0)PatH63-60W100%0.0
2-28Boston University (198.0)PatA70-77W100%0.0
3-3Loyola MD (270.0)PatH62-45W100%0.0
3-5Bucknell (136.0)PatA90-83L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Holy Cross's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Holy Cross's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Holy Cross.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Holy CrossPat26.5626.5645.3045.30-2.50-2.50
BucknellPat6.226.2255.1755.170.640.64
Loyola MDPat6.156.1537.0437.04-1.60-1.60
LafayettePat4.724.7262.0762.071.141.14
AmericanPat4.674.6748.3948.39-0.15-0.15
ColgatePat4.664.6646.6746.67-0.31-0.31
NavyPat4.584.5837.9337.93-1.10-1.10
Boston UniversityPat4.544.5440.7440.74-0.84-0.84
LehighPat4.544.5451.8551.850.170.17
ArmyPat4.514.5148.1548.15-0.17-0.17
AlbanyAE1.991.9977.4277.421.091.09
SyracuseACC1.921.9256.6756.670.260.26
Sacred HeartNEC1.891.8943.3343.33-0.25-0.25
BrownIvy1.871.8739.2939.29-0.40-0.40
HarvardIvy1.841.8476.9276.920.990.99
NJITind1.831.8358.3358.330.310.31
HartfordAE1.811.8142.8642.86-0.26-0.26
CanisiusMAAC1.781.7851.7251.720.060.06
PittsburghACC1.781.7854.8454.840.170.17
ColumbiaIvy0.460.4644.4444.44-0.05-0.05
BinghamtonAE0.340.3416.6716.67-0.23-0.23
New HampshireAE0.340.3458.6258.620.060.06
YaleIvy0.330.3366.6766.670.110.11
CornellIvy0.320.3241.3841.38-0.06-0.06
Stony BrookAE0.310.3165.6265.620.100.10
UMass LowellAE0.300.3039.2939.29-0.06-0.06
UMBCAE0.290.2913.3313.33-0.22-0.22
St. Francis PANEC0.280.2850.0050.000.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.270.2750.0050.000.000.00
MaineAE0.270.2710.0010.00-0.21-0.21
FairfieldMAAC0.250.2522.5822.58-0.14-0.14
SienaMAAC0.250.2535.4835.48-0.07-0.07
PennIvy0.230.2332.1432.14-0.08-0.08
QuinnipiacMAAC0.230.2350.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC0.230.2351.6151.610.010.01
VillanovaBE0.200.2094.1294.120.180.18
MaristMAAC0.200.2021.8821.88-0.11-0.11
DartmouthIvy0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.180.1851.7251.720.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.180.1847.0647.06-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.150.1516.1316.13-0.10-0.10
LIU BrooklynNEC0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
NortheasternCAA0.150.1567.6567.650.050.05
RiderMAAC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Arizona St.P120.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
MichiganB100.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.140.1487.8887.880.110.11
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Notre DameACC0.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
Wake ForestACC0.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
WagnerNEC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
VirginiaACC0.090.0990.6290.620.070.07
ButlerBE0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
CampbellBSth0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Ohio St.B100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Penn St.B100.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
ToledoMAC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
St. John'sBE0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
DuquesneA100.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
DelawareCAA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
USCP120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
KansasB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Michigan St.B100.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
The CitadelSC0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
IowaB100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00