Holy Cross

Conference:	Pat
Expected RPI:	177.0
Current RPI:	177
Expected SOS:	221
Current SOS:	221
Current Record:	15-14
Expected Record:	15-14
Current Conf Record:	9-6
Expected Conf Record:	9-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-2
Current OOC Record:	6-8
Expected OOC Record:	6-8
Expected OOC RPI:	205
Expected OOC SOS:	212

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-14	177.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Holy Cross.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	College of Charleston (122.0)	SC	A	78-69	L	0%
11-15	Harvard (35.0)	Ivy	H	64-73	L	0%
11-18	Boston College (244.0)	ACC	N	86-64	W	100%
11-20	Fairfield (115.0)	MAAC	A	73-52	L	0%
11-23	Hartford (307.0)	AE	H	80-66	W	100%
11-27	Maine (282.0)	AE	A	72-60	L	0%
11-29	Providence (156.0)	BE	A	82-77	L	0%
12-3	New Hampshire (296.0)	AE	H	62-57	W	100%
12-6	Columbia (186.0)	Ivy	A	46-45	L	0%
12-9	Sacred Heart (237.0)	NEC	H	71-60	W	100%
12-18	Connecticut (32.0)	BE	A	77-40	L	0%
12-22	San Francisco (136.0)	WCC	H	88-83	W	100%
12-31	Dartmouth (328.0)	Ivy	A	61-65	W	100%
1-3	Yale (102.0)	Ivy	A	82-67	L	0%
1-7	Lehigh (91.0)	Pat	H	84-78	W	100%
1-11	Navy (327.0)	Pat	H	73-69	W	100%
1-14	American (142.0)	Pat	A	67-54	L	0%
1-19	Lafayette (195.0)	Pat	H	43-54	L	0%
1-21	Bucknell (88.0)	Pat	A	75-41	L	0%
1-25	Army (301.0)	Pat	A	74-68	L	0%
1-28	Colgate (295.0)	Pat	H	76-60	W	100%
2-4	Lehigh (91.0)	Pat	A	75-51	L	0%
2-8	Navy (327.0)	Pat	A	52-64	W	100%
2-11	American (142.0)	Pat	H	59-52	W	100%
2-15	Lafayette (195.0)	Pat	A	63-70	W	100%
2-18	Bucknell (88.0)	Pat	H	54-52	W	100%
2-22	Army (301.0)	Pat	H	82-51	W	100%
2-25	Colgate (295.0)	Pat	A	58-65	W	100%
2-29	Lafayette (195.0)	Pat	H	76-84	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Holy Cross's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Holy Cross's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Holy Cross.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Holy Cross	Pat	26.34	26.34	53.85	53.85	2.03	2.03
Lafayette	Pat	5.97	5.97	39.29	39.29	-1.28	-1.28
Bucknell	Pat	4.42	4.42	73.33	73.33	2.06	2.06
Lehigh	Pat	4.36	4.36	80.00	80.00	2.61	2.61
American	Pat	4.33	4.33	65.52	65.52	1.34	1.34
Colgate	Pat	4.33	4.33	28.57	28.57	-1.86	-1.86
Army	Pat	4.30	4.30	37.04	37.04	-1.11	-1.11
Navy	Pat	4.23	4.23	7.69	7.69	-3.58	-3.58
Dartmouth	Ivy	2.14	2.14	14.29	14.29	-1.53	-1.53
Columbia	Ivy	2.13	2.13	44.44	44.44	-0.24	-0.24
New Hampshire	AE	2.04	2.04	44.44	44.44	-0.23	-0.23
Yale	Ivy	2.02	2.02	64.00	64.00	0.57	0.57
Harvard	Ivy	1.97	1.97	85.71	85.71	1.40	1.40
Sacred Heart	NEC	1.93	1.93	45.16	45.16	-0.19	-0.19
Hartford	AE	1.91	1.91	30.00	30.00	-0.76	-0.76
Connecticut	BE	1.87	1.87	59.38	59.38	0.35	0.35
Maine	AE	1.87	1.87	37.04	37.04	-0.48	-0.48
Boston College	ACC	1.84	1.84	30.00	30.00	-0.74	-0.74
Providence	BE	1.83	1.83	45.16	45.16	-0.18	-0.18
Fairfield	MAAC	1.81	1.81	56.25	56.25	0.23	0.23
San Francisco	WCC	1.75	1.75	60.00	60.00	0.35	0.35
College of Charleston	SC	1.72	1.72	60.00	60.00	0.34	0.34
Brown	Ivy	0.45	0.45	23.33	23.33	-0.24	-0.24
Cornell	Ivy	0.41	0.41	40.74	40.74	-0.08	-0.08
Princeton	Ivy	0.38	0.38	60.71	60.71	0.08	0.08
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.37	0.37	58.06	58.06	0.06	0.06
Albany	AE	0.36	0.36	57.58	57.58	0.05	0.05
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.36	0.36	20.69	20.69	-0.21	-0.21
Binghamton	AE	0.35	0.35	6.45	6.45	-0.30	-0.30
Marist	MAAC	0.34	0.34	43.75	43.75	-0.04	-0.04
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.33	0.33	61.29	61.29	0.07	0.07
Vermont	AE	0.33	0.33	67.65	67.65	0.12	0.12
Boston University	AE	0.32	0.32	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.28	0.28	6.67	6.67	-0.25	-0.25
Stony Brook	AE	0.26	0.26	70.00	70.00	0.11	0.11
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.25	0.25	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.24	0.24	93.94	93.94	0.21	0.21
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.23	0.23	13.33	13.33	-0.17	-0.17
La Salle	A10	0.22	0.22	63.64	63.64	0.06	0.06
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.22	0.22	10.34	10.34	-0.18	-0.18
Monmouth	NEC	0.20	0.20	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.20	0.20	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Long Island	NEC	0.20	0.20	75.76	75.76	0.10	0.10
Wagner	NEC	0.19	0.19	80.65	80.65	0.12	0.12
Elon	SC	0.18	0.18	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.17	0.17	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.17	0.17	27.59	27.59	-0.08	-0.08
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.17	0.17	20.69	20.69	-0.10	-0.10
Notre Dame	BE	0.17	0.17	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.16	0.16	75.00	75.00	0.08	0.08
Longwood	ind	0.15	0.15	22.22	22.22	-0.08	-0.08
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.14	0.14	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.14	0.14	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.14	0.14	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.14	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Richmond	A10	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.14	0.14	73.33	73.33	0.06	0.06
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.13	0.13	16.13	16.13	-0.09	-0.09
Presbyterian	BSth	0.12	0.12	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.12	0.12	22.58	22.58	-0.07	-0.07
The Citadel	SC	0.12	0.12	14.29	14.29	-0.08	-0.08
Siena	MAAC	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Rutgers	BE	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.11	0.11	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.11	0.11	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.09	0.09	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Delaware	CAA	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
St. Mary's	WCC	0.08	0.08	83.33	83.33	0.06	0.06
Manhattan	MAAC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Morehead St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.08	0.08	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Rider	MAAC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Missouri	B12	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Seattle	ind	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Appalachian St.	SC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Davidson	SC	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	3.12	3.12	-0.03	-0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.02	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	96.43	96.43	0.03	0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	11.11	11.11	-0.02	-0.02
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00