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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Holy Cross

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:248.0
Current RPI:248
Expected SOS:287
Current SOS:287
Current Record:14-19
Expected Record:14-19
Current Conf Record:9-13
Expected Conf Record:9-13
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-10
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:231
Expected OOC SOS:295



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-19248.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Holy Cross.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Marist (318.0)MAACA64-67W100%0.0
11-16Brown (312.0)IvyA71-55L0%0.0
11-19New Hampshire (177.0)AEH69-73L0%0.0
11-22Quinnipiac (297.0)MAACA62-56L0%0.0
11-25Sacred Heart (258.0)NECH69-60W100%0.0
11-29Harvard (193.0)IvyH50-49W100%0.0
12-2Rhode Island (119.0)A10A74-56L0%0.0
12-5Albany (107.0)AEH84-88L0%0.0
12-9Kansas (1.0)B12A92-59L0%0.0
12-12Hartford (292.0)AEA68-90W100%0.0
12-21Maine (317.0)AEH76-75W100%0.0
12-30Boston University (196.0)PatH80-64W100%0.0
1-2Navy (216.0)PatA65-60L0%0.0
1-6Colgate (241.0)PatH65-63W100%0.0
1-9Bucknell (183.0)PatA98-71L0%0.0
1-13Lafayette (329.0)PatA65-52L0%0.0
1-16Lehigh (168.0)PatH66-87L0%0.0
1-20Army (214.0)PatH69-65W100%0.0
1-24Colgate (241.0)PatA76-61L0%0.0
1-27Loyola MD (255.0)PatH54-71L0%0.0
1-30Navy (216.0)PatH87-80W100%0.0
2-1American (231.0)PatA58-45L0%0.0
2-6Bucknell (183.0)PatH52-77L0%0.0
2-10Lafayette (329.0)PatH67-53W100%0.0
2-15Lehigh (168.0)PatA64-59L0%0.0
2-17Army (214.0)PatA72-68L0%0.0
2-21American (231.0)PatH70-71L0%0.0
2-24Loyola MD (255.0)PatA78-63L0%0.0
2-27Boston University (196.0)PatA83-68L0%0.0
3-1Loyola MD (255.0)PatA67-72W100%0.0
3-3Bucknell (183.0)PatA72-77W100%0.0
3-6Army (214.0)PatA38-60W100%0.0
3-9Lehigh (168.0)PatA56-59W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Holy Cross's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Holy Cross's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Holy Cross.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Holy CrossPat26.6726.6744.9044.90-2.72-2.72
ArmyPat5.605.6060.7160.711.201.20
LehighPat5.595.5950.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MDPat5.515.5125.9325.93-2.65-2.65
BucknellPat5.495.4953.8553.850.420.42
AmericanPat4.204.2034.4834.48-1.30-1.30
Boston UniversityPat4.184.1855.1755.170.430.43
NavyPat4.164.1656.6756.670.550.55
ColgatePat4.154.1540.7440.74-0.77-0.77
LafayettePat4.104.1017.8617.86-2.64-2.64
AlbanyAE1.841.8473.3373.330.860.86
New HampshireAE1.841.8457.1457.140.260.26
MaineAE1.791.7927.5927.59-0.80-0.80
HartfordAE1.741.7429.0329.03-0.73-0.73
QuinnipiacMAAC1.711.7127.5927.59-0.77-0.77
MaristMAAC1.691.6924.1424.14-0.87-0.87
BrownIvy1.671.6723.0823.08-0.90-0.90
HarvardIvy1.641.6444.4444.44-0.18-0.18
KansasB121.621.6287.5087.501.211.21
Sacred HeartNEC1.611.6141.3841.38-0.28-0.28
Rhode IslandA101.591.5951.6151.610.050.05
Stony BrookAE0.420.4280.0080.000.250.25
BinghamtonAE0.400.4026.6726.67-0.19-0.19
UMBCAE0.370.3721.8821.88-0.21-0.21
VermontAE0.330.3360.6160.610.070.07
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.330.3342.4242.42-0.05-0.05
FairfieldMAAC0.280.2859.3859.380.050.05
SienaMAAC0.280.2863.6463.640.080.08
UMass LowellAE0.270.2735.7135.71-0.08-0.08
ColumbiaIvy0.260.2665.5265.520.080.08
YaleIvy0.260.2677.7877.780.140.14
PrincetonIvy0.240.2477.7877.780.130.13
CornellIvy0.240.2433.3333.33-0.08-0.08
CanisiusMAAC0.220.2242.4242.42-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
PennIvy0.210.2137.0437.04-0.05-0.05
BryantNEC0.210.2123.3323.33-0.11-0.11
ManhattanMAAC0.200.2041.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.200.2046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.200.2031.2531.25-0.08-0.08
St. Francis PANEC0.200.2041.3841.38-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.180.1821.8821.88-0.10-0.10
LIU BrooklynNEC0.180.1851.6151.610.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.170.1779.4179.410.100.10
RiderMAAC0.170.1739.3939.39-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
MassachusettsA100.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1313.7913.79-0.09-0.09
SyracuseACC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
FordhamA100.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
IonaMAAC0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
WagnerNEC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
NJITASun0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
TCUB120.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
NorthwesternB100.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
TowsonCAA0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
La SalleA100.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
KentuckySEC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
USC UpstateASun0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
George MasonA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0724.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.070.0724.2424.24-0.04-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
OklahomaB120.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
BaylorB120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
USCP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
IPFWSum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
MarylandB100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
NebraskaB100.020.0247.0647.06-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0262.8662.860.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
MontanaBSky0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00