Holy Cross

Conference:	Pat
Expected RPI:	251.0
Current RPI:	251
Expected SOS:	262
Current SOS:	262
Current Record:	12-18
Expected Record:	12-18
Current Conf Record:	4-11
Expected Conf Record:	4-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-5
Current OOC Record:	8-7
Expected OOC Record:	8-7
Expected OOC RPI:	210
Expected OOC SOS:	312

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-18	251.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Holy Cross.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Old Dominion (318.0)	CAA	A	45-46	W	100%
11-10	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	N	60-56	L	0%
11-11	Morgan St. (236.0)	MEAC	N	74-73	W	100%
11-14	Maine (267.0)	AE	H	57-54	W	100%
11-21	St. John's (96.0)	BE	A	65-53	L	0%
11-24	New Hampshire (293.0)	AE	H	60-50	W	100%
11-27	Providence (91.0)	BE	A	61-42	L	0%
12-1	Hartford (187.0)	AE	A	48-45	L	0%
12-5	Sacred Heart (253.0)	NEC	A	78-83	W	100%
12-8	Dartmouth (294.0)	Ivy	H	67-56	W	100%
12-18	San Francisco (167.0)	WCC	A	63-73	W	100%
12-22	Harvard (93.0)	Ivy	A	72-65	L	0%
12-29	Boston College (113.0)	ACC	A	70-60	L	0%
1-4	Yale (198.0)	Ivy	H	54-61	L	0%
1-8	Columbia (273.0)	Ivy	H	78-69	W	100%
1-12	Lehigh (107.0)	Pat	A	79-47	L	0%
1-16	Navy (308.0)	Pat	A	47-62	W	100%
1-19	American (278.0)	Pat	H	79-60	W	100%
1-23	Lafayette (153.0)	Pat	A	63-53	L	0%
1-26	Bucknell (51.0)	Pat	H	58-65	L	0%
1-30	Army (205.0)	Pat	H	66-80	L	0%
2-2	Colgate (256.0)	Pat	A	63-45	L	0%
2-9	Lehigh (107.0)	Pat	H	61-68	L	0%
2-12	Navy (308.0)	Pat	H	66-57	W	100%
2-17	American (278.0)	Pat	A	64-61	L	0%
2-20	Lafayette (153.0)	Pat	H	76-79	L	0%
2-24	Bucknell (51.0)	Pat	A	74-57	L	0%
2-27	Army (205.0)	Pat	A	69-62	L	0%
3-2	Colgate (256.0)	Pat	H	74-59	W	100%
3-6	Lafayette (153.0)	Pat	A	77-54	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Holy Cross's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Holy Cross's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Holy Cross.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Holy Cross	Pat	26.31	26.31	41.54	41.54	-4.45	-4.45
Lafayette	Pat	5.79	5.79	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	4.29	4.29	83.33	83.33	2.86	2.86
Army	Pat	4.26	4.26	46.43	46.43	-0.30	-0.30
Colgate	Pat	4.21	4.21	33.33	33.33	-1.40	-1.40
Lehigh	Pat	4.18	4.18	66.67	66.67	1.39	1.39
American	Pat	4.15	4.15	32.14	32.14	-1.48	-1.48
Navy	Pat	4.08	4.08	25.00	25.00	-2.04	-2.04
Dartmouth	Ivy	2.09	2.09	30.77	30.77	-0.81	-0.81
Columbia	Ivy	2.09	2.09	40.00	40.00	-0.42	-0.42
Yale	Ivy	2.00	2.00	39.29	39.29	-0.43	-0.43
New Hampshire	AE	1.92	1.92	29.63	29.63	-0.78	-0.78
Harvard	Ivy	1.88	1.88	65.38	65.38	0.58	0.58
Maine	AE	1.87	1.87	35.71	35.71	-0.53	-0.53
Sacred Heart	NEC	1.86	1.86	32.14	32.14	-0.66	-0.66
Hartford	AE	1.84	1.84	55.17	55.17	0.19	0.19
Boston College	ACC	1.79	1.79	46.88	46.88	-0.11	-0.11
San Francisco	WCC	1.78	1.78	46.43	46.43	-0.13	-0.13
Providence	BE	1.77	1.77	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
St. John's	BE	1.72	1.72	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	1.72	1.72	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Texas San Antonio	WAC	1.72	1.72	29.03	29.03	-0.72	-0.72
Old Dominion	CAA	1.72	1.72	17.24	17.24	-1.13	-1.13
Cornell	Ivy	0.40	0.40	40.00	40.00	-0.08	-0.08
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.38	0.38	29.03	29.03	-0.16	-0.16
Princeton	Ivy	0.37	0.37	59.26	59.26	0.07	0.07
Bryant	NEC	0.37	0.37	63.33	63.33	0.10	0.10
Brown	Ivy	0.36	0.36	44.44	44.44	-0.04	-0.04
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.35	0.35	17.24	17.24	-0.23	-0.23
Binghamton	AE	0.34	0.34	6.90	6.90	-0.29	-0.29
Albany	AE	0.31	0.31	70.59	70.59	0.13	0.13
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.29	0.29	40.00	40.00	-0.06	-0.06
Vermont	AE	0.29	0.29	65.62	65.62	0.09	0.09
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.28	0.28	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.27	0.27	48.00	48.00	-0.01	-0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.26	0.26	23.33	23.33	-0.14	-0.14
Marist	MAAC	0.25	0.25	32.26	32.26	-0.09	-0.09
Long Island	NEC	0.24	0.24	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
Stony Brook	AE	0.23	0.23	76.67	76.67	0.12	0.12
Boston University	AE	0.20	0.20	58.62	58.62	0.04	0.04
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.19	0.19	22.58	22.58	-0.10	-0.10
Penn St.	B10	0.19	0.19	32.26	32.26	-0.07	-0.07
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.17	0.17	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.16	0.16	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.14	0.14	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.14	0.14	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.14	0.14	80.65	80.65	0.08	0.08
Syracuse	BE	0.13	0.13	74.29	74.29	0.06	0.06
Delaware	CAA	0.13	0.13	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.13	0.13	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
St. Mary's	WCC	0.12	0.12	81.25	81.25	0.07	0.07
Fordham	A10	0.12	0.12	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.12	0.12	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Elon	SC	0.11	0.11	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.11	0.11	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.11	0.11	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Baylor	B12	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.11	0.11	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.11	0.11	7.14	7.14	-0.09	-0.09
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.11	0.11	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Stanford	P12	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.09	0.09	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Northeastern	CAA	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Brigham Young	WCC	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Cincinnati	BE	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.08	0.08	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
College of Charleston	SC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Massachusetts	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	93.75	93.75	0.05	0.05
Nevada	MWC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
North Texas	SB	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	WAC	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.03	0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
California	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.02	0.02
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00