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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Holy Cross

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:127.0
Current RPI:127
Expected SOS:199
Current SOS:199
Current Record:19-13
Expected Record:19-13
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:17-2
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:137
Expected OOC SOS:155



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-13127.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Holy Cross.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Harvard (46.0)IvyN82-72L0%0.0
11-13Sacred Heart (338.0)NECH122-118W100%0.0
11-15North Carolina (25.0)ACCA62-54L0%0.0
11-20Fairfield (289.0)MAACA49-63W100%0.0
11-23Belmont (57.0)OVCN70-81L0%0.0
11-24Hartford (234.0)AEN80-55W100%0.0
11-30New Hampshire (340.0)AEA52-63W100%0.0
12-4Albany (185.0)AEH62-57W100%0.0
12-7Hartford (234.0)AEA90-78L0%0.0
12-16Canisius (96.0)MAACH73-83L0%0.0
12-21NJIT (308.0)indA55-74W100%0.0
12-28Michigan (11.0)B10A88-66L0%0.0
1-2Boston University (84.0)PatA70-60L0%0.0
1-5American (118.0)PatH54-69L0%0.0
1-8Colgate (256.0)PatH73-64W100%0.0
1-11Bucknell (167.0)PatA61-57L0%0.0
1-15Army (235.0)PatA75-78W100%0.0
1-18Lehigh (236.0)PatH61-42W100%0.0
1-22Lafayette (258.0)PatA58-59W100%0.0
1-25Navy (321.0)PatA52-67W100%0.0
1-29Loyola MD (274.0)PatH60-51W100%0.0
2-1American (118.0)PatA63-57L0%0.0
2-4Colgate (256.0)PatA68-69W100%0.0
2-9Bucknell (167.0)PatH66-50W100%0.0
2-12Army (235.0)PatH66-63W100%0.0
2-15Lehigh (236.0)PatA67-72W100%0.0
2-19Lafayette (258.0)PatH64-76L0%0.0
2-23Navy (321.0)PatH74-57W100%0.0
2-26Loyola MD (274.0)PatA52-65W100%0.0
3-1Boston University (84.0)PatH64-68L0%0.0
3-5Lehigh (236.0)PatH54-48W100%0.0
3-8American (118.0)PatA57-46L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Holy Cross's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Holy Cross's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Holy Cross.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Holy CrossPat26.5126.5161.6961.696.206.20
AmericanPat5.665.6658.6258.620.980.98
LehighPat5.585.5848.2848.28-0.19-0.19
Boston UniversityPat4.254.2568.7568.751.601.60
LafayettePat4.194.1932.1432.14-1.50-1.50
ColgatePat4.194.1942.8642.86-0.60-0.60
ArmyPat4.174.1750.0050.000.000.00
BucknellPat4.144.1453.5753.570.300.30
Loyola MDPat4.114.1137.0437.04-1.07-1.07
NavyPat4.094.0929.6329.63-1.66-1.66
HartfordAE3.283.2851.6151.610.110.11
AlbanyAE1.881.8858.0658.060.300.30
FairfieldMAAC1.811.8122.5822.58-0.99-0.99
Sacred HeartNEC1.791.7916.6716.67-1.19-1.19
New HampshireAE1.761.7617.8617.86-1.13-1.13
NJITind1.741.7437.5037.50-0.44-0.44
BelmontOVC1.611.6170.9770.970.680.68
CanisiusMAAC1.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
HarvardIvy1.611.6185.7185.711.151.15
North CarolinaACC1.591.5970.9770.970.670.67
MichiganB101.561.5675.0075.000.780.78
UMBCAE0.530.5327.5927.59-0.24-0.24
BinghamtonAE0.400.4023.3323.33-0.22-0.22
St. Francis PANEC0.360.3632.2632.26-0.13-0.13
UMass LowellAE0.330.3333.3333.33-0.11-0.11
Stony BrookAE0.320.3268.7568.750.120.12
MaineAE0.310.3117.8617.86-0.20-0.20
QuinnipiacMAAC0.290.2964.5264.520.080.08
ColumbiaIvy0.280.2860.0060.000.060.06
VermontAE0.280.2866.6766.670.090.09
BryantNEC0.230.2354.8454.840.020.02
YaleIvy0.230.2351.8551.850.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.230.2350.0050.000.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.220.2245.1645.16-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.210.2154.8454.840.020.02
BrownIvy0.200.2051.8551.850.010.01
RiderMAAC0.200.2045.1645.16-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.180.1832.2632.26-0.06-0.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.180.1831.0331.03-0.07-0.07
CornellIvy0.160.163.703.70-0.15-0.15
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.160.1617.8617.86-0.10-0.10
PrincetonIvy0.160.1670.3770.370.060.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.160.1634.4834.48-0.05-0.05
MaristMAAC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.150.1573.5373.530.070.07
SienaMAAC0.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
HofstraCAA0.130.1330.3030.30-0.05-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.130.1338.4638.46-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
Notre DameACC0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
MinnesotaB100.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Ohio St.B100.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
The CitadelSC0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
WagnerNEC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
HowardMEAC0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
MonmouthMAAC0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1021.2121.21-0.06-0.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Michigan St.B100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Seton HallBE0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA100.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Miami FLACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
RutgersAmer0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0814.8114.81-0.05-0.05
Penn St.B100.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
George MasonA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
RichmondA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
DukeACC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
MarylandACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
LipscombASun0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
DavidsonSC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
UABCUSA0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01