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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Stephen F. Austin

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:52.0
Current RPI:52
Expected SOS:297
Current SOS:297
Current Record:27-2
Expected Record:27-2
Current Conf Record:18-0
Expected Conf Record:18-0
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-1
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:66
Expected OOC SOS:296



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-252.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stephen F. Austin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Texas St. (307.0)SBA57-64W100%0.0
11-15Texas (36.0)B12A72-62L0%0.0
11-21Marshall (276.0)CUSAA73-80W100%0.0
11-23East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunA66-58L0%0.0
11-26Samford (313.0)SCH98-78W100%0.0
11-29UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAA55-60W100%0.0
12-1High Point (172.0)BSthA68-71W100%0.0
12-6Towson (95.0)CAAH79-69W100%0.0
12-7James Madison (233.0)CAAH70-57W100%0.0
12-15North Texas (195.0)CUSAA53-87W100%0.0
12-30Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWH74-67W100%0.0
1-2Lamar (344.0)SlndH85-65W100%0.0
1-4Sam Houston St. (112.0)SlndH73-56W100%0.0
1-9Houston Baptist (341.0)SlndA50-77W100%0.0
1-11Texas A&M Corpus Chris (249.0)SlndA70-80W100%0.0
1-16Northwestern St. (158.0)SlndA58-74W100%0.0
1-23Oral Roberts (191.0)SlndA69-72W100%0.0
1-25Central Arkansas (328.0)SlndA49-66W100%0.0
2-6Nicholls St. (262.0)SlndH93-64W100%0.0
2-8McNeese St. (272.0)SlndH74-54W100%0.0
2-13Lamar (344.0)SlndA69-78W100%0.0
2-15Sam Houston St. (112.0)SlndA60-67W100%0.0
2-22Northwestern St. (158.0)SlndH70-68W100%0.0
2-27New Orleans (260.0)SlndA63-103W100%0.0
3-1Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndA62-75W100%0.0
3-6Oral Roberts (191.0)SlndH83-72W100%0.0
3-8Central Arkansas (328.0)SlndH85-61W100%0.0
3-14Northwestern St. (158.0)SlndN85-78W100%0.0
3-15Sam Houston St. (112.0)SlndN68-49W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stephen F. Austin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stephen F. Austin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stephen F. Austin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Stephen F. AustinSlnd26.4526.4595.9295.9224.2924.29
Sam Houston St.Slnd6.036.0376.9276.923.253.25
Northwestern St.Slnd5.965.9654.1754.170.500.50
Oral RobertsSlnd4.344.3448.1548.15-0.16-0.16
LamarSlnd4.224.2211.5411.54-3.25-3.25
Central ArkansasSlnd4.204.2026.0926.09-2.01-2.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.612.6155.5655.560.290.29
Nicholls St.Slnd2.592.5948.0048.00-0.10-0.10
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.582.5832.0032.00-0.93-0.93
Houston BaptistSlnd2.522.5215.3815.38-1.74-1.74
New OrleansSlnd2.512.5138.1038.10-0.60-0.60
McNeese St.Slnd2.492.4926.9226.92-1.15-1.15
James MadisonCAA1.991.9936.6736.67-0.53-0.53
TowsonCAA1.951.9570.0070.000.780.78
North TexasCUSA1.891.8946.4346.43-0.13-0.13
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.861.8624.1424.14-0.96-0.96
Texas St.SB1.811.8121.4321.43-1.03-1.03
MarshallCUSA1.811.8130.0030.00-0.72-0.72
TexasB121.791.7968.7568.750.670.67
East Tennessee St.ASun1.781.7851.6151.610.060.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.751.7546.8846.88-0.11-0.11
High PointBSth1.751.7551.8551.850.060.06
SamfordSC1.751.7534.4834.48-0.54-0.54
Louisiana TechCUSA0.250.2578.7978.790.150.15
BaylorB120.230.2366.6766.670.080.08
William & MaryCAA0.230.2361.2961.290.050.05
Arkansas St.SB0.220.2256.6756.670.030.03
RiceCUSA0.210.2117.8617.86-0.13-0.13
LSUSEC0.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
HofstraCAA0.200.2030.3030.30-0.08-0.08
UTEPCUSA0.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.190.1964.5264.520.050.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.180.1834.6234.62-0.06-0.06
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.180.1825.8125.81-0.09-0.09
Kansas St.B120.180.1862.5062.500.050.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.180.1831.0331.03-0.07-0.07
LibertyBSth0.180.1827.5927.59-0.08-0.08
Western KentuckySB0.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.170.1773.5373.530.080.08
DrexelCAA0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.170.1734.3834.38-0.05-0.05
TroySB0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Texas TechB120.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
Texas A&MSEC0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
UTSACUSA0.120.1222.2222.22-0.07-0.07
Tennessee TechOVC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.120.1258.6258.620.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
TulaneCUSA0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
WinthropBSth0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Iowa St.B120.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Michigan St.B100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1021.2121.21-0.06-0.06
Georgia St.SB0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
UtahP120.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
CampbellBSth0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0980.6580.650.050.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0930.3030.30-0.04-0.04
ToledoMAC0.090.0981.2581.250.060.06
Georgia SouthernSC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0913.3313.33-0.06-0.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
Appalachian St.SC0.090.0919.2319.23-0.05-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
IdahoWAC0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
MercerASun0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Cal PolyBW0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
IndianaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
VMIBSth0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
Washington St.P120.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
WisconsinB100.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
DePaulBE0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
UABCUSA0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
DavidsonSC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
ElonSC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
FurmanSC0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
South DakotaSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
NavyPat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Penn St.B100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.033.573.57-0.02-0.02
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01