Stephen F. Austin

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	65.0
Current RPI:	65
Expected SOS:	299
Current SOS:	299
Current Record:	23-4
Expected Record:	23-4
Current Conf Record:	17-3
Expected Conf Record:	17-3
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	15-1
Current OOC Record:	6-1
Expected OOC Record:	6-1
Expected OOC RPI:	29
Expected OOC SOS:	199

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-4	65.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stephen F. Austin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-17	Florida International (111.0)	SB	A	60-69	W	100%
11-24	Tulsa (127.0)	CUSA	A	41-57	W	100%
12-1	San Diego (165.0)	WCC	H	56-51	W	100%
12-5	Texas A&M (102.0)	SEC	A	62-54	L	0%
12-18	Oklahoma (39.0)	B12	A	55-56	W	100%
12-20	Grambling (347.0)	SWAC	H	60-38	W	100%
12-29	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (323.0)	Slnd	A	56-67	W	100%
1-3	Lamar (335.0)	Slnd	H	79-43	W	100%
1-5	McNeese St. (246.0)	Slnd	H	71-43	W	100%
1-10	Central Arkansas (286.0)	Slnd	A	69-77	W	100%
1-12	Oral Roberts (151.0)	Slnd	A	50-61	W	100%
1-17	Southeastern Louisiana (227.0)	Slnd	H	52-40	W	100%
1-19	Nicholls St. (296.0)	Slnd	H	72-49	W	100%
1-26	Northwestern St. (78.0)	Slnd	A	61-57	L	0%
1-30	McNeese St. (246.0)	Slnd	A	39-59	W	100%
2-2	Lamar (335.0)	Slnd	A	51-65	W	100%
2-7	Central Arkansas (286.0)	Slnd	H	72-36	W	100%
2-9	Oral Roberts (151.0)	Slnd	H	77-67	W	100%
2-14	Nicholls St. (296.0)	Slnd	A	51-63	W	100%
2-16	Southeastern Louisiana (227.0)	Slnd	A	54-50	L	0%
2-20	Sam Houston St. (224.0)	Slnd	A	44-50	W	100%
2-22	Long Beach St. (115.0)	BW	A	60-68	W	100%
3-2	Northwestern St. (78.0)	Slnd	H	64-63	W	100%
3-7	Sam Houston St. (224.0)	Slnd	H	57-42	W	100%
3-9	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (323.0)	Slnd	H	58-49	W	100%
3-15	Southeastern Louisiana (227.0)	Slnd	N	68-57	W	100%
3-16	Northwestern St. (78.0)	Slnd	N	66-68	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stephen F. Austin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Stephen F. Austin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Stephen F. Austin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	26.68	26.68	89.15	89.15	20.89	20.89
Northwestern St.	Slnd	6.74	6.74	70.83	70.83	2.81	2.81
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	6.71	6.71	38.46	38.46	-1.55	-1.55
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	5.09	5.09	48.28	48.28	-0.18	-0.18
McNeese St.	Slnd	5.00	5.00	42.31	42.31	-0.77	-0.77
Oral Roberts	Slnd	4.98	4.98	58.62	58.62	0.86	0.86
Nicholls St.	Slnd	4.92	4.92	32.14	32.14	-1.76	-1.76
Central Arkansas	Slnd	4.91	4.91	42.31	42.31	-0.75	-0.75
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	4.91	4.91	19.23	19.23	-3.02	-3.02
Lamar	Slnd	4.86	4.86	10.34	10.34	-3.85	-3.85
Oklahoma	B12	2.11	2.11	66.67	66.67	0.70	0.70
Texas A&M	SEC	2.05	2.05	53.12	53.12	0.13	0.13
Tulsa	CUSA	1.94	1.94	53.33	53.33	0.13	0.13
San Diego	WCC	1.88	1.88	45.16	45.16	-0.18	-0.18
Florida International	SB	1.85	1.85	58.06	58.06	0.30	0.30
Grambling	SWAC	1.85	1.85	0.00	0.00	-1.85	-1.85
Long Beach St.	BW	1.85	1.85	58.62	58.62	0.32	0.32
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.29	0.29	80.65	80.65	0.18	0.18
Arkansas	SEC	0.25	0.25	59.38	59.38	0.05	0.05
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.23	0.23	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.23	0.23	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
North Texas	SB	0.21	0.21	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
Houston	CUSA	0.19	0.19	60.00	60.00	0.04	0.04
Arkansas St.	SB	0.18	0.18	60.00	60.00	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.18	0.18	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.18	0.18	14.81	14.81	-0.13	-0.13
Texas Tech	B12	0.16	0.16	35.48	35.48	-0.05	-0.05
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.16	0.16	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
UC Irvine	BW	0.15	0.15	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.15	0.15	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.15	0.15	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.15	0.15	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
Toledo	MAC	0.13	0.13	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.13	0.13	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
Utah St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.13	0.13	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
South Alabama	SB	0.12	0.12	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
New Orleans	ind	0.12	0.12	18.18	18.18	-0.08	-0.08
UC Davis	BW	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.12	0.12	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Mississippi	SEC	0.12	0.12	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Pacific	BW	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.12	0.12	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Memphis	CUSA	0.12	0.12	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
Texas	B12	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri	SEC	0.12	0.12	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.10	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Winthrop	BSth	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.09	0.09	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona	P12	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Christian	B12	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.09	0.09	28.12	28.12	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.09	0.09	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.09	0.09	93.75	93.75	0.08	0.08
Brigham Young	WCC	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.09	0.09	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Pepperdine	WCC	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.09	0.09	81.25	81.25	0.05	0.05
Western Kentucky	SB	0.09	0.09	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.09	0.09	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Denver	WAC	0.07	0.07	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.07	0.07	28.00	28.00	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.06	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
East Carolina	CUSA	0.06	0.06	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
IUPUI	Sum	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.02	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01