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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Stephen F. Austin

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:61.0
Current RPI:61
Expected SOS:238
Current SOS:238
Current Record:23-5
Expected Record:23-5
Current Conf Record:20-0
Expected Conf Record:20-0
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-1
Current OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC RPI:178
Expected OOC SOS:122



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-561.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stephen F. Austin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Baylor (25.0)B12A97-55L0%0.0
11-17Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCA70-60L0%0.0
11-26Western Michigan (202.0)MACN79-71W100%0.0
11-27Tulane (227.0)AmerN60-59L0%0.0
11-29Appalachian St. (259.0)SBN84-94W100%0.0
12-5Texas Southern (190.0)SWACH66-62W100%0.0
12-22Arizona St. (99.0)P12A80-73L0%0.0
12-29UAB (88.0)CUSAA76-66L0%0.0
1-2McNeese St. (341.0)SlndH86-57W100%0.0
1-4Southeastern Louisiana (331.0)SlndA69-89W100%0.0
1-12Central Arkansas (339.0)SlndH85-64W100%0.0
1-16Abilene Christian (321.0)SlndH97-62W100%0.0
1-18New Orleans (343.0)SlndA58-82W100%0.0
1-23Sam Houston St. (178.0)SlndH76-64W100%0.0
1-25Lamar (337.0)SlndH86-52W100%0.0
1-30Texas A&M Corpus Chris (84.0)SlndA61-66W100%0.0
2-6Houston Baptist (224.0)SlndA66-72W100%0.0
2-8Northwestern St. (344.0)SlndH83-72W100%0.0
2-13Texas A&M Corpus Chris (84.0)SlndH70-58W100%0.0
2-15Incarnate Word (163.0)SlndH84-46W100%0.0
2-20Nicholls St. (313.0)SlndA53-88W100%0.0
2-22Lamar (337.0)SlndA58-79W100%0.0
2-27Houston Baptist (224.0)SlndH82-54W100%0.0
2-29Incarnate Word (163.0)SlndA58-84W100%0.0
3-3Northwestern St. (344.0)SlndA55-95W100%0.0
3-5Sam Houston St. (178.0)SlndA64-85W100%0.0
3-11Houston Baptist (224.0)SlndN104-68W100%0.0
3-12Texas A&M Corpus Chris (84.0)SlndN82-60W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stephen F. Austin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stephen F. Austin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stephen F. Austin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Stephen F. AustinSlnd26.5126.5186.9286.9219.5819.58
Houston BaptistSlnd6.296.2950.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd6.276.2785.1985.194.414.41
Sam Houston St.Slnd4.594.5955.5655.560.510.51
Incarnate WordSlnd4.464.4660.8760.870.970.97
LamarSlnd4.444.4429.1729.17-1.85-1.85
Northwestern St.Slnd4.334.3322.7322.73-2.36-2.36
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.812.8134.6234.62-0.87-0.87
Nicholls St.Slnd2.772.7726.6726.67-1.29-1.29
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.772.7733.3333.33-0.92-0.92
New OrleansSlnd2.742.7426.9226.92-1.27-1.27
McNeese St.Slnd2.692.6928.0028.00-1.19-1.19
Central ArkansasSlnd2.662.6625.9325.93-1.28-1.28
BaylorB121.891.8964.5264.520.550.55
Arizona St.P121.881.8845.1645.16-0.18-0.18
TulaneAmer1.851.8533.3333.33-0.62-0.62
Texas SouthernSWAC1.811.8158.0658.060.290.29
Appalachian St.SB1.811.8130.0030.00-0.72-0.72
Northern IowaMVC1.791.7962.5062.500.450.45
UABCUSA1.791.7980.0080.001.071.07
Western MichiganMAC1.791.7937.9337.93-0.43-0.43
RiceCUSA0.260.2633.3333.33-0.09-0.09
TCUB120.210.2136.3636.36-0.06-0.06
TexasB120.200.2062.5062.500.050.05
UC RiversideBW0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.190.1978.1278.120.110.11
CaliforniaP120.190.1969.7069.700.070.07
Texas St.SB0.180.1844.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.180.1848.4848.48-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.180.1813.3313.33-0.13-0.13
Illinois St.MVC0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
LibertyBSth0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
North TexasCUSA0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
SMUAmer0.140.1483.3383.330.100.10
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
SouthernSWAC0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
ArizonaP120.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.120.1287.1087.100.090.09
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
FurmanSC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.120.1231.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Texas TechB120.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
DrakeMVC0.110.1120.0020.00-0.07-0.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Washington St.P120.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
HoustonAmer0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
MemphisAmer0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
AuburnSEC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
RiderMAAC0.090.0939.3939.39-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
UTEPCUSA0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
UCLAP120.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
ElonCAA0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0958.6258.620.020.02
WisconsinB100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
BradleyMVC0.090.0912.9012.90-0.06-0.06
Georgia St.SB0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
TroySB0.090.0924.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
MercerSC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
KansasB120.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
Iowa St.B120.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
South FloridaAmer0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
UCFAmer0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
PurdueB100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
St. John'sBE0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0718.5218.52-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.060.0647.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
ColoradoP120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
HawaiiBW0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0622.8622.86-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Oregon St.P120.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
StanfordP120.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
USCP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
WashingtonP120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UtahP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01