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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Stephen F. Austin

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:98.0
Current RPI:138
Expected SOS:279
Current SOS:320
Current Record:13-5
Expected Record:20-6
Current Conf Record:10-0
Expected Conf Record:17-1
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-1
Current OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC RPI:191
Expected OOC SOS:169



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-578.421.55%
20-691.638.10%
19-7107.027.29%
18-8125.110.19%
17-9144.22.50%
16-10161.00.32%
15-11180.00.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stephen F. Austin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Baylor (30.5)B12A97-55L0%0.0
11-17Northern Iowa (115.6)MVCA70-60L0%0.0
11-26Western Michigan (217.6)MACN79-71W100%0.0
11-27Tulane (242.7)AmerN60-59L0%0.0
11-29Appalachian St. (260.2)SBN84-94W100%0.0
12-5Texas Southern (194.5)SWACH66-62W100%0.0
12-22Arizona St. (78.4)P12A80-73L0%0.0
12-29UAB (88.3)CUSAA76-66L0%0.0
1-2McNeese St. (329.4)SlndH86-57W100%0.0
1-4Southeastern Louisiana (336.7)SlndA69-89W100%0.0
1-12Central Arkansas (320.6)SlndH85-64W100%0.0
1-16Abilene Christian (318.7)SlndH97-62W100%0.0
1-18New Orleans (312.5)SlndA58-82W100%0.0
1-23Sam Houston St. (189.2)SlndH76-64W100%0.0
1-25Lamar (336.6)SlndH86-52W100%0.0
1-30Texas A&M Corpus Chris (113.2)SlndA61-66W100%0.0
2-6Houston Baptist (205.0)SlndA66-72W100%0.0
2-8Northwestern St. (332.6)SlndH83-72W100%0.0
2-13Texas A&M Corpus Chris (113.2)SlndH0-079%8.9
2-15Incarnate Word (189.2)SlndH0-088%12.7
2-20Nicholls St. (323.6)SlndA0-092%15.6
2-22Lamar (336.6)SlndA0-089%13.1
2-27Houston Baptist (205.0)SlndH0-089%13.6
2-29Incarnate Word (189.2)SlndA0-071%6.1
3-3Northwestern St. (332.6)SlndA0-087%12.5
3-5Sam Houston St. (189.2)SlndA0-069%5.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stephen F. Austin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stephen F. Austin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stephen F. Austin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Stephen F. AustinSlnd26.2026.3577.6380.7014.4816.18
Houston BaptistSlnd3.494.7952.6353.350.180.32
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd3.364.7280.0077.042.022.55
LamarSlnd3.424.7231.5831.23-1.26-1.77
Sam Houston St.Slnd3.364.7147.3751.94-0.180.18
Incarnate WordSlnd0.584.7152.9454.840.030.46
Northwestern St.Slnd3.404.6318.7528.42-2.13-2.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd3.352.9436.8436.14-0.88-0.81
New OrleansSlnd3.332.8629.4135.81-1.37-0.81
Nicholls St.Slnd0.652.8418.1821.63-0.42-1.61
Central ArkansasSlnd3.352.8426.3231.12-1.59-1.07
McNeese St.Slnd3.282.8318.7530.26-2.05-1.12
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd3.352.8015.0025.77-2.35-1.36
BaylorB122.922.0471.4365.251.250.62
Arizona St.P122.851.9952.1750.080.120.00
TulaneAmer2.921.9930.4330.10-1.14-0.79
Texas SouthernSWAC2.841.9647.6256.01-0.140.23
Appalachian St.SB2.841.9527.2730.14-1.29-0.78
Northern IowaMVC2.781.9252.1753.460.120.13
UABCUSA2.781.9281.8278.651.771.10
Western MichiganMAC2.781.9233.3333.86-0.93-0.62
RiceCUSA0.200.2528.5729.66-0.09-0.10
OklahomaB120.210.2186.9682.650.160.14
CaliforniaP120.130.2165.2262.830.040.05
TCUB120.270.2045.8339.34-0.02-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.210.1845.8341.65-0.02-0.03
Texas St.SB0.210.1736.8437.57-0.05-0.04
LibertyBSth0.250.1734.7836.50-0.08-0.05
North TexasCUSA0.190.1733.3333.04-0.06-0.06
Illinois St.MVC0.190.1754.1750.940.020.00
UTSACUSA0.260.1713.6413.63-0.19-0.12
SMUAmer0.130.1790.9186.110.100.12
Texas A&MSEC0.250.1678.2677.860.140.09
TexasB120.190.1666.6762.200.060.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.1547.8348.87-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.140.1479.1778.350.080.08
Louisiana MonroeSB0.200.1442.8646.35-0.03-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.280.1457.8961.740.040.03
Austin PeayOVC0.130.1437.5040.54-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.140.1447.6249.35-0.01-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.190.1472.0070.540.080.06
Texas TechB120.130.1459.0953.180.020.01
DrakeMVC0.240.1320.8323.21-0.14-0.07
Arkansas Little RockSB0.200.1390.4886.910.160.10
Jackson St.SWAC0.190.1350.0054.200.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.190.1342.8639.22-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.190.1361.9065.300.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.250.139.0917.13-0.20-0.08
Washington St.P120.240.1336.3631.98-0.06-0.05
AuburnSEC0.140.1139.1335.43-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.1142.1145.67-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.130.1152.0048.860.01-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.200.1060.8757.190.040.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.140.1050.0045.840.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1065.2268.600.040.04
UTEPCUSA0.130.1052.1751.920.010.00
BradleyMVC0.190.1012.5012.90-0.14-0.07
UCLAP120.140.1056.5253.270.020.01
FurmanSC0.130.1054.1754.060.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1024.0025.67-0.07-0.05
New MexicoMWC0.120.1058.3360.730.020.02
TulsaAmer0.190.1065.2261.470.060.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1028.5733.36-0.05-0.03
Iowa St.B120.120.1073.9170.050.060.04
HoustonAmer0.060.1069.5766.580.020.03
MemphisAmer0.060.1060.8760.820.010.02
MercerSC0.180.1069.5769.020.070.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.1036.8442.89-0.03-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.120.0957.8956.090.020.01
North CarolinaACC0.180.0983.3378.390.120.05
South FloridaAmer0.180.0920.0019.68-0.11-0.06
TroySB0.120.0923.8126.71-0.06-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.080.0850.0053.100.000.00
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5058.930.020.01
PurdueB100.000.0880.0077.930.000.04
St. John'sBE0.000.0825.0023.40-0.00-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.079.0912.24-0.06-0.06
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0761.9059.540.020.01
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0745.0046.13-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0714.2915.46-0.05-0.05
MassachusettsA100.150.0740.9139.33-0.03-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0731.8236.14-0.03-0.02
MichiganB100.070.0769.5766.220.030.02
RiderMAAC0.070.0740.0042.11-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0777.2776.870.040.04
UC IrvineBW0.070.0772.7371.650.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.0725.0025.08-0.07-0.03
NebraskaB100.140.0754.1751.880.010.00
Cal PolyBW0.070.0730.0034.55-0.03-0.02
ElonCAA0.070.0752.1750.420.000.00
WisconsinB100.070.0760.8755.830.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.130.0752.3850.420.010.00
HowardMEAC0.130.0736.3638.92-0.04-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0740.0043.44-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0769.5764.890.030.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0765.2260.590.020.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0760.0057.610.010.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0760.8762.040.010.02
HawaiiBW0.060.0784.2181.660.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.130.0756.5259.860.020.01
CincinnatiAmer0.120.0672.0071.540.050.03
ColoradoP120.000.0669.5765.330.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.120.0652.1751.510.010.00
HamptonMEAC0.060.0659.0961.320.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.120.0650.0049.830.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0640.0040.31-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0675.0076.250.030.03
FIUCUSA0.060.0640.9145.30-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0622.7327.22-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0615.0018.09-0.04-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0652.1751.910.000.00
KansasB120.060.0682.6179.190.040.04
Kansas St.B120.060.0660.8758.300.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0643.4842.66-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0650.0051.210.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0671.4369.410.030.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0620.0022.32-0.04-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0639.1337.81-0.01-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.130.0645.8342.26-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0679.1778.090.040.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0645.4546.24-0.01-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0673.9176.720.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.120.0634.7840.91-0.04-0.01
CreightonBE0.120.0664.0062.090.030.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.0643.4843.78-0.02-0.01
OregonP120.120.0682.6179.220.080.04
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0631.5832.01-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.120.0673.9172.480.060.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0643.4841.96-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0640.0038.98-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0633.3334.22-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.060.0650.0046.540.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.060.0650.0044.860.00-0.01
USCP120.060.0678.2673.050.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0668.1871.320.020.03
WashingtonP120.120.0665.2261.100.040.01
IndianaB100.080.0479.1774.040.050.02
LSUSEC0.080.0465.2260.260.020.01
DuquesneA100.080.0460.8756.430.020.00
NorthwesternB100.080.0464.0062.060.020.01
New HampshireAE0.070.0457.1453.990.010.00
OaklandHorz0.070.0468.0067.980.030.01
PortlandWCC0.070.0440.0038.51-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0372.7367.630.030.01
RutgersB100.070.0321.7420.37-0.04-0.02
AkronMAC0.060.0382.6181.140.040.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0356.5256.990.010.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0344.0045.31-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.060.0333.3334.01-0.02-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0345.4547.57-0.01-0.00
IPFWSum0.060.0370.8368.550.030.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0370.8369.490.030.01
Miami OHMAC0.060.0334.7833.09-0.02-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0345.8346.64-0.01-0.00
OhioMAC0.060.0363.6461.420.020.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0331.8229.12-0.02-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0372.7372.110.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0376.1973.420.030.02
BYUWCC0.060.0366.6769.490.020.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0358.3358.310.010.01
George MasonA100.060.0333.3333.68-0.02-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0359.0955.300.010.00
IllinoisB100.060.0345.8344.13-0.01-0.00
IonaMAAC0.060.0360.8760.720.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0325.0024.33-0.03-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0371.4368.760.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0347.3749.93-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0356.5262.790.010.01
RichmondA100.060.0354.5554.470.010.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0338.1037.68-0.02-0.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0347.6244.99-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.060.0366.6762.530.020.01
USC UpstateASun0.060.0322.7323.24-0.03-0.02
BelmontOVC0.060.0366.6766.540.020.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0366.6767.700.020.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0365.2264.220.020.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0321.7423.40-0.03-0.02
KentuckySEC0.060.0375.0072.610.030.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0362.5056.050.010.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.060.0361.9056.430.010.00
TempleAmer0.000.0363.6459.810.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0342.8650.39-0.010.00
UNLVMWC0.060.0350.0055.190.000.00
UtahP120.000.0369.5767.500.000.01