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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Stephen F. Austin

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:161.5
Current RPI:328
Expected SOS:330
Current SOS:351
Current Record:1-0
Expected Record:19-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-3
Current OOC Record:1-0
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:188
Expected OOC SOS:291



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-152.00.01%
25-252.60.08%
24-373.70.60%
23-484.22.20%
22-598.65.67%
21-6117.410.97%
20-7135.216.82%
19-8154.618.68%
18-9175.418.43%
17-10196.312.80%
16-11216.37.46%
15-12237.23.79%
14-13257.31.82%
13-14273.80.50%
12-15285.80.13%
11-16305.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stephen F. Austin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Longwood (333.8)BSthA61-74W100%0.0
11-22Mississippi St. (134.2)SECA0-024%-8.5
11-26Florida A&M (335.5)MEACH0-097%22.5
11-28North Dakota St. (146.9)SumH0-059%2.8
12-2Louisiana Monroe (194.1)SBH0-070%6.3
12-6Louisiana Tech (113.7)CUSAA0-033%-5.2
12-9Rice (260.0)CUSAH0-079%9.7
12-16LSU (132.9)SECA0-026%-7.9
12-19Missouri (59.7)SECA0-013%-13.6
12-28Southeastern Louisiana (248.9)SlndA0-064%4.5
1-3Nicholls St. (279.7)SlndH0-086%13.0
1-6Northwestern St. (322.8)SlndA0-083%11.7
1-10New Orleans (237.1)SlndH0-080%10.0
1-13Incarnate Word (309.6)SlndH0-091%15.9
1-17Abilene Christian (295.7)SlndA0-072%7.0
1-24Central Arkansas (294.4)SlndA0-074%7.6
1-27Sam Houston St. (231.6)SlndH0-077%8.7
1-31Houston Baptist (247.3)SlndH0-082%10.9
2-3Lamar (153.4)SlndA0-047%-0.9
2-8McNeese St. (331.7)SlndA0-085%12.3
2-10Northwestern St. (322.8)SlndH0-093%17.6
2-14Texas A&M Corpus Chris (253.4)SlndA0-060%3.1
2-17Incarnate Word (309.6)SlndA0-080%9.9
2-21Central Arkansas (294.4)SlndH0-087%13.6
2-24Lamar (153.4)SlndH0-066%5.1
2-28Abilene Christian (295.7)SlndH0-086%12.9
3-3Sam Houston St. (231.6)SlndA0-059%2.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stephen F. Austin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stephen F. Austin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stephen F. Austin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Stephen F. AustinSlnd33.3326.36100.0071.9333.3311.56
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.004.570.0048.490.00-0.14
Central ArkansasSlnd0.004.560.0036.750.00-1.21
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.004.550.0038.090.00-1.08
Northwestern St.Slnd0.004.540.0023.890.00-2.37
LamarSlnd0.004.53100.0067.430.001.58
Incarnate WordSlnd0.004.510.0030.920.00-1.72
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.002.810.0046.260.00-0.21
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.002.800.0044.450.00-0.31
Houston BaptistSlnd0.002.780.0039.760.00-0.57
New OrleansSlnd0.002.740.0043.710.00-0.34
McNeese St.Slnd0.002.740.0023.500.00-1.45
Nicholls St.Slnd0.002.7350.0044.900.00-0.28
Mississippi St.SEC0.002.02100.0050.220.000.01
LSUSEC0.001.99100.0045.030.00-0.20
RiceCUSA0.001.9633.3336.980.00-0.51
Louisiana MonroeSB0.001.9633.3347.550.00-0.10
MissouriSEC0.001.9566.6756.810.000.27
Florida A&MMEAC0.001.920.0018.910.00-1.19
North Dakota St.Sum0.001.9133.3354.030.000.15
Louisiana TechCUSA0.001.88100.0063.470.000.51
LongwoodBSth50.001.850.0017.69-50.00-1.20
Little RockSB0.000.300.0037.050.00-0.08
UTEPCUSA0.000.280.0051.690.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.27100.0053.790.000.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.2550.0059.190.000.05
Texas St.SB0.000.2433.3346.090.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.2133.3338.350.00-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.000.20100.0061.320.000.04
VanderbiltSEC0.000.2066.6749.990.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.1866.6753.670.000.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1833.3347.670.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.17100.0061.110.000.04
FloridaSEC0.000.17100.0080.230.000.10
GeorgiaSEC0.000.17100.0053.240.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.16100.0071.180.000.07
Texas A&MSEC0.000.16100.0071.010.000.07
SMUAmer0.000.15100.0076.260.000.08
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1450.0035.330.00-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1433.3342.010.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.14100.0063.830.000.04
North TexasCUSA0.000.1450.0036.640.00-0.04
UABCUSA0.000.14100.0078.750.000.08
LipscombASun0.000.1433.3349.220.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.130.0051.410.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.1350.0048.690.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.130.0034.600.00-0.04
KentuckySEC0.000.1375.0071.830.000.06
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1375.0058.930.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.130.0036.690.00-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1233.3336.610.00-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1150.0034.730.00-0.03
IdahoBSky0.000.1150.0060.380.000.02
UtahP120.000.11100.0067.160.000.04
South AlabamaSB0.000.1133.3345.780.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.10100.0071.560.000.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.100.0045.040.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.100.0016.000.00-0.07
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1066.6768.320.000.04
Texas TechB120.000.10100.0062.630.000.03
FIUCUSA0.000.100.0024.970.00-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.100.0032.130.00-0.04
AuburnSEC0.000.1066.6750.670.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.10100.0048.350.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.090.0037.120.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.090.0044.830.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0034.040.00-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.070.0048.610.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0766.6742.170.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.07100.0086.180.000.05
OklahomaB120.000.07100.0060.070.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.070.0033.930.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.070.0026.150.00-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0750.0060.430.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.070.0042.670.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.070.0038.100.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.07100.0047.670.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0766.6756.330.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0766.6763.230.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.070.0035.760.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0766.6746.830.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.070.0023.260.00-0.04
South DakotaSum0.000.0766.6767.630.000.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0766.6761.500.000.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.07100.0059.250.000.01
TroySB0.000.0733.3346.410.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0766.6757.400.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.07100.0038.710.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.070.0044.500.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0750.0065.140.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.070.0032.770.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0750.0050.670.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.07100.0054.140.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0750.0050.360.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.07100.0044.740.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0766.6748.040.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.070.0039.010.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.070.0045.640.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0766.6749.100.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0775.0072.950.000.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.070.0049.250.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0750.0068.280.000.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0733.3335.310.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.070.0043.690.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0733.3347.540.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.07100.0059.240.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0733.3360.630.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0750.0046.150.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0733.3347.970.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.07100.0061.780.000.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.070.0064.600.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.070.0055.380.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.070.0026.180.00-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0625.0050.070.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.06100.0075.130.000.03
UNLVMWC0.000.06100.0064.720.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0666.6740.170.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.06100.0076.200.000.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0666.6756.400.000.01
UCLAP120.000.06100.0064.910.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.060.0035.450.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.060.0021.590.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0046.080.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0633.3335.150.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0433.3334.560.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0450.0062.630.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.040.0028.720.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.04100.0083.700.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.04100.0064.470.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0466.6765.630.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0433.3350.150.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.04100.0054.590.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.0433.3333.620.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.04100.0061.150.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0433.3350.220.000.00
USCP120.000.04100.0073.190.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.04100.0082.960.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0375.0071.560.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0375.0048.930.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0077.820.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.0333.3350.350.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0059.540.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0375.0064.570.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0333.3348.640.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.030.0036.490.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0375.0061.940.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0062.760.000.01
ColumbiaIvy8.330.0333.3350.35-2.780.00
CornellIvy0.000.0333.3334.680.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0350.0048.680.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0052.380.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0350.0038.730.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0066.010.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0350.0051.070.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.03100.0039.920.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0061.710.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0018.970.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0350.0050.570.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0073.730.000.02
St. Francis PANEC8.330.0333.3359.68-2.780.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0056.560.000.00
ValparaisoMVC0.000.03100.0059.760.000.01
VMISC0.000.0333.3327.450.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0366.6749.940.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0082.350.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0366.6762.150.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3345.540.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0022.840.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0333.3336.170.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.030.0057.520.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0048.070.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0028.770.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0375.0076.250.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0074.500.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0066.530.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0042.850.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0366.6748.280.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0025.140.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0044.630.00-0.00