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Through games of Jan 20, 2017.


Stephen F. Austin

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:198.4
Current RPI:235
Expected SOS:260
Current SOS:237
Current Record:6-9
Expected Record:14-13
Current Conf Record:4-2
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-5
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:264
Expected OOC SOS:113



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-9119.80.44%
17-10137.43.65%
16-11156.610.86%
15-12175.921.19%
14-13196.324.87%
13-14216.820.25%
12-15235.711.99%
11-16255.35.06%
10-17273.61.30%
9-18291.50.36%
8-19311.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stephen F. Austin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Kentucky (5.3)SECA87-64L0%0.0
11-15Longwood (324.1)BSthH66-60W100%0.0
11-28Louisiana Monroe (275.6)SBA77-72L0%0.0
12-1Arkansas (44.2)SECA78-62L0%0.0
12-7UAB (126.4)CUSAH73-84L0%0.0
12-10Rice (149.9)CUSAA70-63L0%0.0
12-22Tulsa (113.4)AmerN51-74L0%0.0
12-23Southern Miss (331.1)CUSAN64-67W100%0.0
12-25Utah (62.1)P12N74-66L0%0.0
12-31Houston Baptist (210.8)SlndH61-51W100%0.0
1-2McNeese St. (260.6)SlndA69-54L0%0.0
1-7Abilene Christian (295.7)SlndA69-60L0%0.0
1-11Texas A&M Corpus Chris (230.7)SlndH79-46W100%0.0
1-14Nicholls St. (240.9)SlndH80-60W100%0.0
1-19Texas A&M Corpus Chris (230.7)SlndA58-61W100%0.0
1-21Incarnate Word (298.9)SlndA0-064%4.0
1-25Central Arkansas (281.3)SlndH0-084%11.0
1-28New Orleans (197.9)SlndH0-071%6.2
2-2Sam Houston St. (153.2)SlndA0-040%-2.9
2-4Northwestern St. (301.1)SlndA0-062%3.5
2-9Incarnate Word (298.9)SlndH0-082%10.2
2-16Lamar (259.4)SlndH0-077%8.4
2-18Southeastern Louisiana (218.6)SlndA0-048%-0.7
2-23New Orleans (197.9)SlndA0-050%0.0
2-25Central Arkansas (281.3)SlndA0-067%4.8
3-2Northwestern St. (301.1)SlndH0-081%9.7
3-4Sam Houston St. (153.2)SlndH0-062%3.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stephen F. Austin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stephen F. Austin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stephen F. Austin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Stephen F. AustinSlnd26.8326.3340.6853.39-5.001.79
Incarnate WordSlnd0.334.5423.0831.03-0.18-1.72
Central ArkansasSlnd0.604.5221.0529.17-0.34-1.88
Northwestern St.Slnd0.674.5225.0034.53-0.34-1.40
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.444.5162.5064.370.111.30
New OrleansSlnd0.574.4950.0054.110.000.37
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd6.784.4850.0054.700.000.42
Abilene ChristianSlnd3.442.8223.0831.90-1.85-1.02
McNeese St.Slnd3.452.8023.0830.96-1.86-1.07
Nicholls St.Slnd3.692.7942.8640.08-0.53-0.55
Houston BaptistSlnd3.552.7930.7743.51-1.37-0.36
LamarSlnd0.122.7746.6748.29-0.01-0.09
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.482.7652.9455.150.030.28
RiceCUSA3.542.1356.2563.530.440.58
ArkansasSEC3.431.9576.4769.301.810.75
Southern MissCUSA3.331.9526.6723.14-1.56-1.05
Louisiana MonroeSB3.331.9320.0025.84-2.00-0.93
TulsaAmer3.331.9256.2549.500.42-0.02
UABCUSA3.431.9258.8263.090.610.50
KentuckySEC3.431.8888.2487.092.621.40
LongwoodBSth3.331.8526.6724.75-1.56-0.94
UtahP123.331.8566.6766.441.110.61
Texas A&MSEC0.420.2652.9451.020.020.01
Oklahoma St.B120.340.2652.9450.580.020.00
North TexasCUSA0.290.2625.0029.15-0.15-0.11
UTEPCUSA0.100.2318.7524.05-0.07-0.12
UTSACUSA0.340.2343.7538.29-0.04-0.05
TulaneAmer0.320.2322.2220.60-0.18-0.14
Little RockSB0.200.2156.2551.110.030.00
Texas TechB120.430.2177.7865.330.240.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.330.2062.5062.710.080.05
MemphisAmer0.310.2073.6867.200.150.07
Texas St.SB0.460.2053.3345.980.03-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.200.1964.7169.700.060.08
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.480.1833.3333.28-0.16-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.290.1770.5958.250.120.03
TexasB120.290.1738.8935.38-0.06-0.05
MissouriSEC0.090.1629.4125.93-0.04-0.08
Charleston SouthernBSth0.240.1420.0030.55-0.14-0.06
Washington St.P120.100.1447.0633.39-0.01-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.090.1337.5051.21-0.020.00
Oregon St.P120.100.1316.6713.65-0.07-0.10
CharlotteCUSA0.200.1343.7543.70-0.03-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.200.1361.1162.280.040.03
FIUCUSA0.000.1311.7621.45-0.00-0.07
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.1320.0026.44-0.06-0.06
MarshallCUSA0.090.1355.5660.070.010.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.190.1383.3383.150.130.08
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.1347.3745.06-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1264.7165.930.030.04
LSUSEC0.100.1252.9438.780.01-0.03
Arizona St.P120.200.1247.3744.51-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.090.1277.7874.930.050.06
VanderbiltSEC0.090.1244.4442.60-0.01-0.02
OklahomaB120.120.1147.0641.20-0.01-0.02
NorthwesternB100.120.1178.9569.160.070.04
San FranciscoWCC0.220.1063.1660.550.060.02
USCP120.100.1080.0071.930.060.05
LibertyBSth0.000.1047.0651.38-0.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.330.1088.8987.310.260.08
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.1052.6347.720.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.1068.4264.450.000.03
ColoradoP120.210.1050.0052.890.000.01
SMUAmer0.120.1080.0077.810.070.05
UCFAmer0.110.1077.7867.020.060.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0968.7570.270.030.04
ButlerBE0.100.0984.2178.340.070.05
ChattanoogaSC0.100.0975.0074.870.050.05
HoustonAmer0.190.0968.4268.060.070.03
AuburnSEC0.190.0966.6755.390.060.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0964.7158.520.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.090.0947.0648.42-0.01-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0763.1660.780.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0747.0644.32-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.240.0757.8958.030.040.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0747.3743.68-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.240.0718.7527.05-0.15-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.0743.7543.98-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.0794.1280.880.000.04
CampbellBSth0.100.0743.7542.60-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.0741.1849.23-0.02-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0761.1147.020.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.100.0737.5042.27-0.03-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0740.0044.98-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0766.6767.550.000.02
PresbyterianBSth0.100.0712.5013.05-0.08-0.05
RadfordBSth0.100.0741.1844.82-0.02-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0731.5833.34-0.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.0761.1169.300.020.03
WinthropBSth0.100.0775.0075.420.050.03
Florida St.ACC0.220.0789.4779.540.170.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.0717.6535.33-0.07-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.200.0726.3229.57-0.10-0.03
HawaiiBW0.210.0743.7546.21-0.03-0.01
OregonP120.000.0788.8983.420.000.04
WashingtonP120.000.0750.0043.390.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0755.5648.060.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.210.0622.2225.60-0.12-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.0631.2545.45-0.04-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.200.0633.3340.46-0.07-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.100.0643.7541.41-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.200.066.2511.88-0.17-0.05
San Diego St.MWC0.200.0658.8264.380.040.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.100.0662.5060.090.030.01
Georgia St.SB0.100.0653.3355.990.010.01
UCLAP120.200.0695.0089.690.180.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.200.0652.6352.920.010.00
TroySB0.090.0647.0648.13-0.01-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0688.8986.560.000.05
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0647.3741.50-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.200.0677.7878.460.110.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.0635.2928.97-0.00-0.03
KansasB120.090.0694.4481.800.080.04
AlabamaSEC0.000.0664.7157.700.000.01
MississippiSEC0.090.0661.1155.030.020.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0682.3574.990.000.03
ArmyPat0.000.0638.8942.65-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0663.1658.150.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0635.2941.48-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0631.5835.67-0.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0631.2536.88-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.0683.3381.320.000.04
IndianaB100.120.0468.4264.610.040.01
MarquetteBE0.120.0466.6761.530.040.01
New HampshireAE0.120.0456.2558.170.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.120.0420.0024.21-0.07-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.120.0455.5656.750.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.0460.0072.810.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.0468.4252.190.040.00
PurdueB100.120.0478.9576.890.070.02
Ball St.MAC0.100.0364.7156.100.030.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.0312.5024.37-0.08-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.110.0347.3734.50-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.100.0394.4484.720.090.02
DartmouthIvy0.100.0321.4323.06-0.06-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0342.1130.39-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0358.8254.690.000.00
George MasonA100.100.0364.7156.510.030.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0312.5022.04-0.00-0.02
MaineAE0.100.0320.0020.95-0.06-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.0388.2484.520.080.02
SamfordSC0.110.0364.7160.050.030.01
San DiegoWCC0.110.0350.0043.680.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.100.0335.2944.13-0.03-0.00
ArizonaP120.100.0389.4784.510.080.02
UC RiversideBW0.100.0321.4330.89-0.06-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.0340.0044.67-0.02-0.00
XavierBE0.100.0372.2267.680.050.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0328.5731.47-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.100.0321.0533.56-0.06-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0343.7543.71-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0352.9450.600.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.0317.6529.60-0.06-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0312.5019.98-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.0325.0029.54-0.05-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0312.5033.82-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.0352.6353.100.010.00
PittsburghACC0.100.0363.1651.610.030.00
SeattleWAC0.100.0340.0037.08-0.02-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.0350.0066.300.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0352.9452.870.000.00
VCUA100.100.0373.6870.630.050.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0317.6524.51-0.06-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.100.0335.2941.77-0.03-0.01
FurmanSC0.090.0352.9458.360.010.01
George WashingtonA100.090.0352.6348.070.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.100.0322.2229.94-0.05-0.01
TempleAmer0.100.0350.0053.120.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.100.0378.9582.980.060.02
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0322.2227.15-0.05-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0360.0061.270.020.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0326.3232.63-0.04-0.01
DuquesneA100.090.0347.3741.47-0.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.090.0364.7166.910.030.01
HofstraCAA0.090.0342.1143.49-0.01-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.090.0384.2179.280.060.02
Michigan St.B100.090.0363.1657.700.020.00
MinnesotaB100.090.0378.9570.150.050.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0340.0050.05-0.020.00
North CarolinaACC0.090.0384.2180.600.060.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0364.7162.600.030.01
North FloridaASun0.090.0323.5331.23-0.05-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0357.8957.540.010.00
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0377.7877.270.050.02