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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Stephen F. Austin

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:33.0
Current RPI:33
Expected SOS:170
Current SOS:170
Current Record:26-4
Expected Record:26-4
Current Conf Record:19-1
Expected Conf Record:19-1
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-1
Current OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:66
Expected OOC SOS:149



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-433.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stephen F. Austin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCH77-79L0%0.0
11-21Xavier (30.0)BEA81-63L0%0.0
11-24Baylor (10.0)B12A67-51L0%0.0
11-27Prairie View A&M (262.0)SWACN61-73W100%0.0
11-28Austin Peay (318.0)OVCN83-62W100%0.0
12-2Memphis (83.0)AmerA52-64W100%0.0
12-5Long Beach St. (111.0)BWH74-45W100%0.0
12-14North Texas (224.0)CUSAH59-48W100%0.0
12-17Texas St. (236.0)SBH66-60W100%0.0
12-29Cal St. Northridge (282.0)BWA57-61W100%0.0
1-3McNeese St. (279.0)SlndA75-80W100%0.0
1-5Southeastern Louisiana (329.0)SlndH81-66W100%0.0
1-13Central Arkansas (349.0)SlndA58-109W100%0.0
1-17Abilene Christian (324.0)SlndA64-82W100%0.0
1-19New Orleans (326.0)SlndH79-54W100%0.0
1-24Sam Houston St. (82.0)SlndA68-79W100%0.0
1-26Lamar (230.0)SlndA65-82W100%0.0
1-31Texas A&M Corpus Chris (209.0)SlndH61-51W100%0.0
2-7Houston Baptist (285.0)SlndH95-59W100%0.0
2-9Northwestern St. (161.0)SlndA82-93W100%0.0
2-14Texas A&M Corpus Chris (209.0)SlndA71-63L0%0.0
2-16Incarnate Word (160.0)SlndA76-90W100%0.0
2-21Nicholls St. (321.0)SlndH86-71W100%0.0
2-23Lamar (230.0)SlndH103-74W100%0.0
2-28Houston Baptist (285.0)SlndA87-102W100%0.0
3-2Incarnate Word (160.0)SlndH83-62W100%0.0
3-5Northwestern St. (161.0)SlndH92-66W100%0.0
3-7Sam Houston St. (82.0)SlndH64-55W100%0.0
3-13Northwestern St. (161.0)SlndN91-79W100%0.0
3-14Sam Houston St. (82.0)SlndN83-70W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stephen F. Austin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stephen F. Austin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stephen F. Austin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Stephen F. AustinSlnd26.5026.5088.7388.7320.5320.53
Sam Houston St.Slnd5.865.8680.7780.773.613.61
Northwestern St.Slnd5.715.7162.5062.501.431.43
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd4.334.3357.1457.140.620.62
LamarSlnd4.204.2045.8345.83-0.35-0.35
Houston BaptistSlnd4.194.1936.3636.36-1.14-1.14
Incarnate WordSlnd4.134.1363.6463.641.131.13
McNeese St.Slnd2.682.6842.3142.31-0.41-0.41
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.632.6325.9325.93-1.26-1.26
New OrleansSlnd2.612.6132.0032.00-0.94-0.94
Nicholls St.Slnd2.592.5928.0028.00-1.14-1.14
Central ArkansasSlnd2.562.567.147.14-2.19-2.19
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.532.5326.6726.67-1.18-1.18
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.861.8645.1645.16-0.18-0.18
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.781.7823.3323.33-0.95-0.95
Long Beach St.BW1.771.7746.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Texas St.SB1.761.7640.7440.74-0.33-0.33
BaylorB121.751.7570.9770.970.730.73
North TexasCUSA1.721.7242.8642.86-0.25-0.25
XavierBE1.721.7260.6160.610.360.36
MemphisAmer1.721.7258.0658.060.280.28
Austin PeayOVC1.671.6722.2222.22-0.93-0.93
Northern IowaMVC1.671.6790.6290.621.351.35
RiceCUSA0.250.2534.4834.48-0.08-0.08
Texas A&MSEC0.240.2464.5264.520.070.07
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.210.2156.6756.670.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.210.2141.3841.38-0.04-0.04
Texas TechB120.200.2040.6240.62-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.180.1868.7568.750.070.07
OklahomaB120.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
DenverSum0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.170.1764.7164.710.050.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
HawaiiBW0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
Louisiana TechCUSA0.150.1575.0075.000.080.08
Arkansas St.SB0.150.1535.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.150.1558.6258.620.030.03
HoustonAmer0.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.08-0.08
TroySB0.150.1529.6329.63-0.06-0.06
UTSACUSA0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1418.7518.75-0.09-0.09
UC DavisBW0.130.1379.3179.310.080.08
GeorgetownBE0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
LSUSEC0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
Iowa St.B120.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
SMUAmer0.120.1281.2581.250.070.07
Arkansas Little RockSB0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1239.2939.29-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1134.3834.38-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
CreightonBE0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
NebraskaB100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
NorthwesternB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
UNLVMWC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
WoffordSC0.090.0981.2581.250.050.05
Murray St.OVC0.080.0883.3383.330.060.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
St. John'sBE0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
ButlerBE0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
VillanovaBE0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
PrincetonIvy0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
LipscombASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
UCLAP120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.9493.940.050.05
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
TempleAmer0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
BYUWCC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0241.1841.18-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00