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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Stephen F. Austin

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:202.0
Current RPI:202
Expected SOS:255
Current SOS:255
Current Record:15-14
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-6
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:290
Expected OOC SOS:203



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-14202.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stephen F. Austin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Kentucky (3.0)SECA87-64L0%0.0
11-15Longwood (343.0)BSthH66-60W100%0.0
11-28Louisiana Monroe (298.0)SBA77-72L0%0.0
12-1Arkansas (28.0)SECA78-62L0%0.0
12-7UAB (201.0)CUSAH73-84L0%0.0
12-10Rice (167.0)CUSAA70-63L0%0.0
12-22Tulsa (134.0)AmerN51-74L0%0.0
12-23Southern Miss (331.0)CUSAN64-67W100%0.0
12-25Utah (83.0)P12N74-66L0%0.0
12-31Houston Baptist (175.0)SlndH61-51W100%0.0
1-2McNeese St. (315.0)SlndA69-54L0%0.0
1-7Abilene Christian (288.0)SlndA69-60L0%0.0
1-11Texas A&M Corpus Chris (158.0)SlndH79-46W100%0.0
1-14Nicholls St. (252.0)SlndH80-60W100%0.0
1-19Texas A&M Corpus Chris (158.0)SlndA58-61W100%0.0
1-21Incarnate Word (303.0)SlndA70-68L0%0.0
1-25Central Arkansas (313.0)SlndH78-76W100%0.0
1-28New Orleans (154.0)SlndH71-61W100%0.0
2-2Sam Houston St. (194.0)SlndA72-63L0%0.0
2-4Northwestern St. (306.0)SlndA73-75W100%0.0
2-9Incarnate Word (303.0)SlndH87-79W100%0.0
2-16Lamar (232.0)SlndH70-61W100%0.0
2-18Southeastern Louisiana (248.0)SlndA52-60W100%0.0
2-23New Orleans (154.0)SlndA82-65L0%0.0
2-25Central Arkansas (313.0)SlndA85-90W100%0.0
3-2Northwestern St. (306.0)SlndH67-72L0%0.0
3-4Sam Houston St. (194.0)SlndH64-56W100%0.0
3-9Lamar (232.0)SlndN75-59W100%0.0
3-10Texas A&M Corpus Chris (158.0)SlndN77-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stephen F. Austin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stephen F. Austin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stephen F. Austin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Stephen F. AustinSlnd26.4326.4353.7253.721.971.97
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd5.995.9964.0064.001.681.68
Sam Houston St.Slnd4.424.4257.1457.140.630.63
New OrleansSlnd4.374.3761.5461.541.011.01
LamarSlnd4.364.3655.5655.560.480.48
Central ArkansasSlnd4.304.3026.6726.67-2.01-2.01
Incarnate WordSlnd4.284.2830.4330.43-1.68-1.68
Northwestern St.Slnd4.274.2734.7834.78-1.30-1.30
Houston BaptistSlnd2.742.7452.0052.000.110.11
McNeese St.Slnd2.692.6916.0016.00-1.83-1.83
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.682.6833.3333.33-0.89-0.89
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.662.6648.2848.28-0.09-0.09
Nicholls St.Slnd2.662.6638.4638.46-0.61-0.61
RiceCUSA2.012.0163.3363.330.540.54
Southern MissCUSA1.831.8325.0025.00-0.92-0.92
ArkansasSEC1.831.8372.7372.730.830.83
Louisiana MonroeSB1.791.7920.0020.00-1.08-1.08
TulsaAmer1.791.7945.1645.16-0.17-0.17
UABCUSA1.781.7848.3948.39-0.06-0.06
KentuckySEC1.771.7784.8584.851.241.24
LongwoodBSth1.721.7214.8114.81-1.21-1.21
UtahP121.721.7260.7160.710.370.37
UTSACUSA0.270.2738.7138.71-0.06-0.06
Texas A&MSEC0.260.2651.6151.610.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.260.2661.2961.290.060.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.240.2424.1424.14-0.13-0.13
UTEPCUSA0.240.2445.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.240.2458.0658.060.040.04
TulaneAmer0.230.2319.3519.35-0.14-0.14
North TexasCUSA0.230.2321.4321.43-0.13-0.13
Louisiana TechCUSA0.200.2067.7467.740.070.07
Texas TechB120.190.1956.2556.250.020.02
Little RockSB0.190.1943.3343.33-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.160.1632.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
TexasB120.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Oregon St.P120.150.1512.9012.90-0.11-0.11
MissouriSEC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
CharlotteCUSA0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1355.8855.880.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
LibertyBSth0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
Washington St.P120.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
CaliforniaP120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
FIUCUSA0.110.1117.2417.24-0.07-0.07
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1187.8887.880.080.08
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
NorthwesternB100.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.090.0931.0331.03-0.04-0.04
USCP120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
SMUAmer0.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
UCFAmer0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
ButlerBE0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
HoustonAmer0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
AuburnSEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
CampbellBSth0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
High PointBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
RadfordBSth0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0680.0080.000.040.04
DePaulBE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
OregonP120.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
StanfordP120.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
IdahoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
OhioMAC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
UCLAP120.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
SamfordSC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01