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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Stephen F. Austin

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:122.6
Current RPI:118
Expected SOS:334
Current SOS:330
Current Record:12-3
Expected Record:21-6
Current Conf Record:5-1
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:17-3
Current OOC Record:7-2
Expected OOC Record:7-2
Expected OOC RPI:101
Expected OOC SOS:321



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-378.83.94%
23-491.915.88%
22-5108.626.63%
21-6127.426.75%
20-7146.617.12%
19-8167.27.02%
18-9185.92.20%
17-10207.90.41%
16-11224.00.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stephen F. Austin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Longwood (332.4)BSthA61-74W100%0.0
11-22Mississippi St. (111.1)SECA80-75L0%0.0
11-26Florida A&M (340.4)MEACH79-63W100%0.0
11-28North Dakota St. (167.2)SumH54-50W100%0.0
12-2Louisiana Monroe (292.1)SBH68-65W100%0.0
12-6Louisiana Tech (159.7)CUSAA83-85W100%0.0
12-9Rice (321.3)CUSAH81-62W100%0.0
12-16LSU (103.4)SECA82-83W100%0.0
12-19Missouri (44.8)SECA82-81L0%0.0
12-28Southeastern Louisiana (204.8)SlndA73-62L0%0.0
1-3Nicholls St. (199.3)SlndH81-64W100%0.0
1-6Northwestern St. (337.9)SlndA56-64W100%0.0
1-10New Orleans (219.1)SlndH78-68W100%0.0
1-13Incarnate Word (338.3)SlndH83-63W100%0.0
1-17Abilene Christian (228.2)SlndA66-76W100%0.0
1-24Central Arkansas (236.8)SlndA0-060%2.9
1-27Sam Houston St. (220.9)SlndH0-078%8.6
1-31Houston Baptist (333.6)SlndH0-092%15.9
2-3Lamar (227.8)SlndA0-057%2.0
2-8McNeese St. (297.6)SlndA0-080%9.6
2-10Northwestern St. (337.9)SlndH0-097%20.5
2-14Texas A&M Corpus Chris (335.4)SlndA0-079%9.0
2-17Incarnate Word (338.3)SlndA0-086%11.8
2-21Central Arkansas (236.8)SlndH0-080%9.3
2-24Lamar (227.8)SlndH0-078%8.4
2-28Abilene Christian (228.2)SlndH0-084%11.1
3-3Sam Houston St. (220.9)SlndA0-058%2.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stephen F. Austin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stephen F. Austin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stephen F. Austin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Stephen F. AustinSlnd26.4926.3486.1582.9019.1617.33
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.444.5643.7550.46-0.050.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.534.5545.0050.66-0.050.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd3.654.5456.2556.200.460.56
Northwestern St.Slnd3.844.537.6915.96-3.25-3.08
LamarSlnd0.334.5250.0056.630.000.60
Incarnate WordSlnd3.544.508.3321.26-2.95-2.59
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.332.807.6923.38-0.28-1.49
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd3.662.7950.0053.370.000.19
Houston BaptistSlnd0.402.775.8819.80-0.36-1.67
New OrleansSlnd3.562.7440.0047.02-0.71-0.16
McNeese St.Slnd0.652.7228.5731.76-0.28-0.99
Nicholls St.Slnd3.582.7253.3353.460.240.19
Mississippi St.SEC3.512.0170.5957.521.440.30
LSUSEC3.331.9864.7154.990.980.20
Louisiana MonroeSB3.551.9628.5730.20-1.52-0.78
RiceCUSA3.541.9611.7618.32-2.71-1.24
MissouriSEC3.331.9464.7161.940.980.46
Florida A&MMEAC3.521.9210.5320.28-2.78-1.14
North Dakota St.Sum3.511.9147.0652.24-0.210.09
Louisiana TechCUSA3.431.8855.5657.270.380.27
LongwoodBSth3.331.8518.7517.87-2.08-1.19
UTEPCUSA0.400.3133.3334.11-0.13-0.10
Little RockSB0.200.2922.2225.26-0.11-0.15
MississippiSEC0.190.2952.6345.860.01-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.510.2483.3381.350.340.15
Texas St.SB0.300.2457.8950.210.050.00
UTSACUSA0.180.2041.1839.65-0.03-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.190.1936.8435.55-0.05-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.270.1968.4258.990.100.03
HoustonAmer0.320.1878.9572.990.190.08
Coastal CarolinaSB0.110.1727.7838.13-0.05-0.04
FloridaSEC0.310.1773.6871.550.150.07
BaylorB120.000.1761.1156.090.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.190.1666.6755.930.060.02
ArkansasSEC0.280.1568.4264.200.100.04
Texas A&MSEC0.190.1568.4263.980.070.04
SMUAmer0.330.1570.0070.630.130.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.200.1445.0045.02-0.02-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.210.1427.7831.12-0.09-0.05
LipscombASun0.200.1452.9459.360.010.03
TexasB120.290.1463.1657.620.080.02
CampbellBSth0.200.1343.7545.34-0.02-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.180.1344.4446.64-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.190.1361.1164.130.040.04
TulsaAmer0.000.1355.0053.290.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.190.1341.1838.46-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.090.1273.6867.950.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.090.1261.1151.900.020.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1223.5328.700.00-0.05
North FloridaASun0.360.1231.5835.15-0.13-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.130.1127.7829.11-0.06-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.100.1150.0045.900.00-0.01
UtahP120.210.1061.1158.950.050.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.200.1060.0062.030.040.02
IdahoBSky0.100.1064.7166.850.030.03
Fort WayneSum0.180.1052.6351.700.010.00
Texas TechB120.190.1078.9571.810.110.04
PresbyterianBSth0.200.1029.4127.74-0.08-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.1055.5656.710.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.190.1068.4270.810.070.04
FIUCUSA0.000.1035.2935.570.00-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1037.5037.680.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.1072.2274.700.040.05
AuburnSEC0.090.0989.4777.030.070.05
TennesseeSEC0.090.0972.2268.920.040.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0912.5025.47-0.07-0.05
Green BayHorz0.270.0925.0027.94-0.13-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0927.7831.670.00-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.130.0880.9583.260.080.05
UMKCWAC0.130.0821.0524.71-0.07-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.120.0745.0041.34-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.120.0777.7867.900.070.03
TroySB0.000.0735.2942.760.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.210.0736.8444.12-0.06-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.100.0737.5031.76-0.02-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.0758.8249.760.02-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0729.4133.220.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0762.5058.700.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0766.6765.620.000.02
DenverSum0.090.0733.3336.47-0.03-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.0770.0058.100.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.190.0770.0068.420.070.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0725.0028.020.00-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.190.0729.4134.76-0.08-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0730.0032.53-0.04-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0733.3332.960.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.090.0773.6872.360.040.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0772.2272.970.040.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0752.6350.250.000.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0758.8262.450.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.100.0711.1117.96-0.08-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0766.6766.010.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0742.8635.250.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.090.0766.6765.530.030.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.200.0738.8943.43-0.04-0.01
TulaneAmer0.200.0763.1657.900.050.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0743.7554.090.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.200.0770.0068.220.080.02
MemphisAmer0.200.0765.0058.490.060.01
St. John'sBE0.200.0747.3742.18-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.0720.0028.72-0.06-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.0741.1843.41-0.02-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0740.0047.860.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.100.0752.9457.320.010.01
RadfordBSth0.100.0761.1160.790.020.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.0750.0055.650.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0746.6758.780.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.190.0722.2227.33-0.10-0.03
IllinoisB100.190.0647.3744.27-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.190.0663.1661.050.050.01
SamfordSC0.190.0627.7832.66-0.08-0.02
UCFAmer0.190.0668.4260.880.070.01
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0623.5325.63-0.05-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.090.0668.4263.640.030.02
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0678.9576.760.050.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.180.0670.0071.230.070.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.180.0616.6724.29-0.12-0.03
UNLVMWC0.180.0673.6865.280.080.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.190.0626.3231.52-0.09-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0636.8431.120.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.0665.0063.830.000.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0650.0048.740.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.0665.0062.040.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0650.0052.440.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.060.009.15-0.08-0.05
HowardMEAC0.080.0610.5327.31-0.07-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0629.4139.62-0.03-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0440.0030.870.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0458.8262.830.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.110.0433.3337.22-0.04-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0466.6765.360.000.01
OaklandHorz0.100.0461.9065.160.020.01
TCUB120.110.0473.6865.590.050.01
ArizonaP120.090.0380.0078.980.060.02
SeattleWAC0.100.0357.8954.500.020.00
StetsonASun0.090.0333.3336.92-0.03-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0370.5969.610.040.01
UMBCAE0.100.0358.8258.360.020.01
USCP120.090.0371.4368.300.040.01
VillanovaBE0.100.0394.7490.310.090.03
Arizona St.P120.100.0378.9576.130.060.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0371.4374.650.000.02
ColumbiaIvy0.100.0320.0032.26-0.06-0.01
CornellIvy0.100.0333.3333.36-0.03-0.01
DelawareCAA0.100.0347.3743.04-0.01-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0321.0525.980.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.100.0344.4444.86-0.01-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0385.0083.180.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.030.0010.65-0.10-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0368.4254.090.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0370.0060.460.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0344.4448.910.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.100.0352.9459.250.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.0368.7567.640.040.01
ValparaisoMVC0.100.0350.0051.360.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0368.4257.780.000.01
VMISC0.100.0325.0024.17-0.05-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0331.5832.72-0.03-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0352.6347.360.00-0.00
George MasonA100.090.0345.0041.35-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.090.0350.0047.670.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.090.0345.0048.56-0.01-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0342.1143.50-0.01-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0389.4785.520.070.02
DaytonA100.090.0347.3750.95-0.000.00
Iowa St.B120.090.0361.1147.260.02-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0340.0043.34-0.02-0.00
MarquetteBE0.090.0368.4260.530.030.01
Miami OHMAC0.090.0347.0641.45-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.090.0375.0070.270.050.01
WagnerNEC0.090.0364.7164.540.030.01
West VirginiaB120.090.0384.2178.170.060.02
Ball St.MAC0.080.0361.1158.750.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.039.5217.94-0.07-0.02
FordhamA100.080.0331.5829.06-0.03-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.080.0352.6343.120.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0320.0041.760.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0315.7920.920.00-0.02
MercerSC0.080.0344.4454.89-0.010.00
Miami FLACC0.080.0376.4769.020.040.01
Murray St.OVC0.080.0370.5975.930.030.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0318.7536.760.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0327.7834.500.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.080.0327.7840.97-0.04-0.01