Stephen F. Austin

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	202.0
Current RPI:	202
Expected SOS:	312
Current SOS:	312
Current Record:	16-12
Expected Record:	16-12
Current Conf Record:	13-5
Expected Conf Record:	13-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-4
Current OOC Record:	3-7
Expected OOC Record:	3-7
Expected OOC RPI:	310
Expected OOC SOS:	322

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-12	202.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stephen F. Austin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-14	San Diego (192.0)	WCC	A	66-61	L	0%
11-20	Texas Tech (241.0)	B12	A	66-54	L	0%
11-26	Texas El Paso (147.0)	CUSA	A	35-53	W	100%
12-3	Texas A&M (165.0)	B12	A	55-42	L	0%
12-10	Alabama St. (308.0)	SWAC	H	74-48	W	100%
12-11	Florida International (251.0)	SB	H	56-58	L	0%
12-20	Prairie View A&M (294.0)	SWAC	N	50-53	L	0%
12-21	North Carolina Central (233.0)	MEAC	N	65-57	L	0%
12-22	Oregon (67.0)	P12	A	55-45	L	0%
1-4	Texas St. (287.0)	Slnd	A	65-66	W	100%
1-7	Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)	Slnd	H	63-36	W	100%
1-11	Central Arkansas (321.0)	Slnd	A	56-67	W	100%
1-14	Texas San Antonio (196.0)	Slnd	H	52-59	L	0%
1-21	Texas Arlington (111.0)	Slnd	A	63-54	L	0%
1-25	Sam Houston St. (273.0)	Slnd	H	67-66	W	100%
1-28	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (319.0)	Slnd	A	49-64	W	100%
2-1	Texas St. (287.0)	Slnd	H	71-63	W	100%
2-5	McNeese St. (174.0)	Slnd	A	66-56	L	0%
2-8	Nicholls St. (298.0)	Slnd	H	62-58	W	100%
2-11	Texas San Antonio (196.0)	Slnd	A	51-59	W	100%
2-15	Texas Arlington (111.0)	Slnd	H	47-51	L	0%
2-18	High Point (268.0)	BSth	H	69-62	W	100%
2-22	Lamar (108.0)	Slnd	A	52-62	W	100%
2-25	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (319.0)	Slnd	H	74-41	W	100%
2-29	Sam Houston St. (273.0)	Slnd	A	47-58	W	100%
3-3	Northwestern St. (217.0)	Slnd	H	62-52	W	100%
3-7	Sam Houston St. (273.0)	Slnd	N	68-46	W	100%
3-8	Lamar (108.0)	Slnd	N	44-55	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stephen F. Austin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Stephen F. Austin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Stephen F. Austin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	26.35	26.35	59.09	59.09	4.79	4.79
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	6.09	6.09	36.00	36.00	-1.71	-1.71
Texas Arlington	Slnd	4.42	4.42	72.41	72.41	1.98	1.98
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	4.41	4.41	53.57	53.57	0.32	0.32
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	4.41	4.41	21.43	21.43	-2.52	-2.52
Texas St.	Slnd	4.33	4.33	37.50	37.50	-1.08	-1.08
Lamar	Slnd	4.30	4.30	66.67	66.67	1.43	1.43
McNeese St.	Slnd	2.70	2.70	46.43	46.43	-0.19	-0.19
Northwestern St.	Slnd	2.59	2.59	46.43	46.43	-0.18	-0.18
Nicholls St.	Slnd	2.56	2.56	29.63	29.63	-1.04	-1.04
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	2.52	2.52	36.00	36.00	-0.71	-0.71
Central Arkansas	Slnd	2.49	2.49	24.00	24.00	-1.30	-1.30
Texas A&M	B12	2.00	2.00	40.00	40.00	-0.40	-0.40
Texas Tech	B12	1.94	1.94	23.33	23.33	-1.03	-1.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	1.91	1.91	35.71	35.71	-0.55	-0.55
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	1.91	1.91	35.71	35.71	-0.55	-0.55
Texas El Paso	CUSA	1.90	1.90	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
Oregon	P12	1.88	1.88	70.00	70.00	0.75	0.75
North Carolina Central	MEAC	1.85	1.85	44.44	44.44	-0.21	-0.21
Florida International	SB	1.82	1.82	25.93	25.93	-0.87	-0.87
High Point	BSth	1.79	1.79	39.29	39.29	-0.38	-0.38
San Diego	WCC	1.79	1.79	35.71	35.71	-0.51	-0.51
Texas	B12	0.37	0.37	60.61	60.61	0.08	0.08
Houston	CUSA	0.34	0.34	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.26	0.26	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.24	0.24	25.00	25.00	-0.12	-0.12
Southern	SWAC	0.21	0.21	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Texas	SB	0.21	0.21	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.21	0.21	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.21	0.21	25.00	25.00	-0.11	-0.11
Samford	SC	0.21	0.21	32.14	32.14	-0.08	-0.08
Baylor	B12	0.20	0.20	78.79	78.79	0.12	0.12
Rice	CUSA	0.20	0.20	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.19	0.19	10.71	10.71	-0.15	-0.15
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.19	0.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.17	0.17	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.16	0.16	25.93	25.93	-0.08	-0.08
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.16	0.16	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.15	0.15	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Troy	SB	0.15	0.15	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Brigham Young	WCC	0.15	0.15	74.19	74.19	0.07	0.07
Grambling	SWAC	0.15	0.15	14.29	14.29	-0.11	-0.11
Pepperdine	WCC	0.15	0.15	32.14	32.14	-0.05	-0.05
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.15	0.15	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Missouri	B12	0.15	0.15	88.24	88.24	0.11	0.11
Kansas	B12	0.14	0.14	81.82	81.82	0.09	0.09
Kansas St.	B12	0.14	0.14	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
Western Kentucky	SB	0.13	0.13	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.12	0.12	6.90	6.90	-0.11	-0.11
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.12	0.12	19.23	19.23	-0.08	-0.08
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Georgia St.	CAA	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Arkansas St.	SB	0.12	0.12	39.39	39.39	-0.03	-0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.12	0.12	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
Tulane	CUSA	0.12	0.12	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.10	0.10	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.10	0.10	11.11	11.11	-0.07	-0.07
Notre Dame	BE	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.09	0.09	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.09	0.09	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Denver	SB	0.09	0.09	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Auburn	SEC	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
California	P12	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Fresno St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Colorado St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Texas Christian	MWC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.07	0.07	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.07	0.07	28.00	28.00	-0.03	-0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	30.77	30.77	-0.03	-0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	10.34	10.34	-0.05	-0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	21.43	21.43	-0.04	-0.04
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	83.33	83.33	0.04	0.04
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.06	0.06	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
West Virginia	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.06	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
Utah	P12	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Washington	P12	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	78.57	78.57	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	94.12	94.12	0.05	0.05
Louisville	BE	0.06	0.06	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Longwood	ind	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.02	-0.02
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.02	0.02
Nevada	WAC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	64.29	64.29	0.01	0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	18.75	18.75	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00