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Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


Stephen F. Austin

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:74.7
Current RPI:84
Expected SOS:234
Current SOS:95
Current Record:5-3
Expected Record:22-6
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-1
Current OOC Record:5-3
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:55
Expected OOC SOS:102



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-340.82.27%
24-448.910.14%
23-559.322.54%
22-670.926.14%
21-784.320.71%
20-898.811.85%
19-9115.14.56%
18-10133.21.39%
17-11148.60.27%
16-12171.40.11%
14-14230.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stephen F. Austin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Northern Iowa (32.1)MVCH77-79L0%0.0
11-21Xavier (22.7)BEA81-63L0%0.0
11-24Baylor (9.7)B12A67-51L0%0.0
11-27Prairie View A&M (293.3)SWACN61-73W100%0.0
11-28Austin Peay (295.4)OVCN83-62W100%0.0
12-2Memphis (89.4)AmerA52-64W100%0.0
12-5Long Beach St. (88.9)BWH74-45W100%0.0
12-14North Texas (247.8)CUSAH59-48W100%0.0
12-17Texas St. (197.3)SBH0-092%16.5
12-29Cal St. Northridge (282.3)BWA0-082%10.7
1-3McNeese St. (237.6)SlndA0-076%8.5
1-5Southeastern Louisiana (240.5)SlndH0-092%17.0
1-13Central Arkansas (342.4)SlndA0-094%18.9
1-17Abilene Christian (319.8)SlndA0-091%16.1
1-19New Orleans (277.6)SlndH0-095%19.9
1-24Sam Houston St. (101.2)SlndA0-040%-2.9
1-26Lamar (281.4)SlndA0-086%12.6
1-31Texas A&M Corpus Chris (325.0)SlndH0-098%25.4
2-7Houston Baptist (259.1)SlndH0-095%19.3
2-9Northwestern St. (278.1)SlndA0-082%11.0
2-14Texas A&M Corpus Chris (325.0)SlndA0-092%16.5
2-16Incarnate Word (115.7)SlndA0-049%-0.2
2-21Nicholls St. (333.9)SlndH0-099%27.7
2-23Lamar (281.4)SlndH0-097%21.5
2-28Houston Baptist (259.1)SlndA0-081%10.3
3-2Incarnate Word (115.7)SlndH0-077%8.8
3-5Northwestern St. (278.1)SlndH0-095%20.0
3-7Sam Houston St. (101.2)SlndH0-070%6.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stephen F. Austin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stephen F. Austin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stephen F. Austin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Stephen F. AustinSlnd27.8226.3563.8980.077.7315.84
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.004.4428.5728.45-0.00-1.91
LamarSlnd0.004.4414.2934.16-0.00-1.41
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.004.4350.0076.340.002.33
Houston BaptistSlnd0.004.4220.0042.02-0.00-0.71
Incarnate WordSlnd0.004.3966.6777.180.002.39
Northwestern St.Slnd0.004.290.0037.98-0.00-1.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.002.7520.0027.13-0.00-1.26
Nicholls St.Slnd0.452.680.0020.15-0.45-1.60
McNeese St.Slnd0.352.6725.0050.11-0.170.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.002.650.0016.33-0.00-1.79
New OrleansSlnd0.002.640.0040.59-0.00-0.50
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.002.6211.1144.71-0.00-0.28
Prairie View A&MSWAC6.991.980.0040.16-6.99-0.39
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.001.9122.2230.63-0.00-0.74
Long Beach St.BW6.881.9044.4452.00-0.760.08
Texas St.SB0.351.8960.0049.400.07-0.02
BaylorB126.991.8887.5074.215.240.91
North TexasCUSA6.251.8550.0038.090.00-0.44
MemphisAmer6.941.8557.1460.990.990.41
XavierBE6.881.8577.7870.173.820.74
Austin PeayOVC6.251.7925.0032.98-3.12-0.61
Northern IowaMVC6.251.7988.8978.654.861.02
RiceCUSA0.350.2416.6725.01-0.23-0.12
UC RiversideBW0.000.2342.8644.92-0.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.350.2077.7866.040.190.07
UTEPCUSA0.310.2066.6772.150.100.09
DenverSum0.310.1944.4455.06-0.030.02
Texas TechB120.350.1987.5047.890.26-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1836.3639.31-0.00-0.04
Oklahoma St.B121.180.1888.8964.140.920.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1842.8652.83-0.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1720.0033.83-0.00-0.05
TroySB0.350.1733.3341.99-0.12-0.03
HoustonAmer0.000.1783.3358.570.000.03
TulsaAmer0.000.1755.5657.230.000.02
TCUB120.350.16100.0067.440.350.06
UTSACUSA0.000.1642.8635.74-0.00-0.05
OklahomaB120.000.1677.7868.030.000.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.350.1611.1145.10-0.27-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.450.1610.0018.39-0.36-0.10
BradleyMVC0.390.1533.3332.65-0.13-0.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1455.5655.850.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1433.3347.11-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1470.0066.510.000.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.1342.8644.96-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.1342.8639.29-0.00-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.350.1360.0050.220.070.00
Iowa St.B120.000.1388.8964.670.000.04
SMUAmer0.000.1366.6770.530.000.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1244.4447.24-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.1290.0081.780.000.08
GeorgetownBE0.000.1266.6759.740.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.1272.7351.370.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.740.1233.3334.47-0.25-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.000.1233.3332.44-0.00-0.04
HawaiiBW0.000.1266.6753.390.000.01
UC DavisBW0.000.1285.7161.820.000.03
UC IrvineBW0.000.1237.5046.90-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.1237.5064.38-0.000.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1140.0044.19-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.1180.0057.560.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.1166.6742.930.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.310.1066.6744.720.10-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.450.1077.7871.340.250.04
LSUSEC0.000.1077.7861.940.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.1020.0040.86-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0966.6754.790.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.310.0950.0058.490.000.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0950.0050.190.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0034.13-0.00-0.03
Kansas St.B120.310.0960.0038.270.06-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.390.0987.5085.930.290.06
St. John'sBE0.000.0987.5064.670.000.03
TulaneAmer0.000.0987.5054.670.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0950.0030.140.00-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0975.0065.380.000.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0727.2737.98-0.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0744.4449.60-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0722.2242.30-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0742.8633.13-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0760.0064.120.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0771.4372.840.000.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0039.43-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0766.6776.390.000.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0744.4440.58-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0771.4350.790.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.0775.0077.280.000.04
San DiegoWCC0.310.0754.5557.870.030.01
UCLAP120.310.0772.7357.470.140.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0637.5045.72-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0655.5665.940.000.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0633.3339.81-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.350.0625.0042.82-0.17-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0687.5080.890.000.04
RadfordBSth0.000.0650.0054.960.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0655.5631.620.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0023.06-0.00-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0671.4367.660.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.350.0650.0049.220.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.690.0640.0034.21-0.14-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0620.0047.17-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.690.0670.0066.410.280.02
North FloridaASun0.310.0650.0061.230.000.01
SamfordSC0.350.0633.3331.09-0.12-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0032.02-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0633.3363.92-0.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.62-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0611.1130.96-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0610.0040.34-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0011.08-0.00-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0655.5639.260.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0620.0020.57-0.00-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0675.0070.380.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0662.5065.100.000.02
KansasB120.000.0688.8969.900.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0085.390.000.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.310.0620.0037.42-0.19-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.310.0677.7875.600.170.03
West VirginiaB120.000.0690.0067.550.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0642.8638.69-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0690.0091.020.000.05
South FloridaAmer0.000.0650.0048.280.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0637.5031.71-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.0680.0072.430.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0657.1456.000.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0666.6739.030.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0637.5037.27-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0655.5647.220.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0672.7352.480.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0688.8964.060.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0082.270.000.04
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0483.3363.180.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0455.5642.720.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0457.1447.630.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0455.5655.960.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0450.0037.860.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0490.9188.300.000.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.0375.0067.800.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0333.3338.84-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0342.8643.01-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0322.2236.43-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0360.0062.380.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.450.0333.3340.42-0.15-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8655.73-0.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0350.0054.480.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0350.0051.980.000.00
IonaMAAC0.450.0366.6772.270.150.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0325.0038.94-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0344.4444.49-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6751.450.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0032.740.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0017.65-0.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.0333.3338.27-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0350.0046.750.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0366.6772.470.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0337.5051.76-0.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0366.6758.510.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0080.930.000.02
BYUWCC0.310.0366.6767.890.100.01
George MasonA100.310.0325.0025.93-0.16-0.01
IowaB100.000.0372.7362.660.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0325.0027.78-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.310.0312.5024.45-0.23-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0340.0065.07-0.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0350.0056.650.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.310.0325.0033.19-0.16-0.01
OregonP120.000.0362.5057.800.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0371.4360.450.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0357.1447.350.00-0.00
RichmondA100.310.0350.0056.190.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.350.0362.5064.900.090.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0357.1454.620.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6757.080.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.350.0375.0060.540.170.01
VCUA100.310.0370.0071.110.120.01
Virginia TechACC0.310.0355.5638.250.03-0.01
WashingtonP120.310.03100.0070.570.310.01
Western MichiganMAC0.310.0362.5054.950.080.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0333.3351.71-0.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.310.0366.6755.560.100.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0337.5032.05-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0375.0070.980.000.01
IUPUISum0.310.0320.0026.66-0.19-0.01
MissouriSEC0.310.0344.4431.46-0.03-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.390.0344.4469.77-0.040.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.310.0340.0049.29-0.06-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0344.4444.67-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.0360.0054.040.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0366.6765.150.000.01