Fresno St.

Conference:	MWC
Expected RPI:	103.0
Current RPI:	103
Expected SOS:	128
Current SOS:	128
Current Record:	19-11
Expected Record:	19-11
Current Conf Record:	11-8
Expected Conf Record:	11-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-0
Current OOC Record:	8-3
Expected OOC Record:	8-3
Expected OOC RPI:	139
Expected OOC SOS:	284

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-11	103.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fresno St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Cal St. Northridge (340.0)	BW	H	89-73	W	100%
11-17	Arkansas (30.0)	SEC	A	83-75	L	0%
11-21	Evansville (151.0)	MVC	N	57-59	L	0%
11-22	George Mason (201.0)	A10	N	79-73	W	100%
11-26	Montana St. (283.0)	BSky	H	80-67	W	100%
11-30	Weber St. (162.0)	BSky	H	83-71	W	100%
12-2	Long Beach St. (191.0)	BW	A	70-106	W	100%
12-5	Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)	WAC	H	70-55	W	100%
12-9	Cal Poly (305.0)	BW	A	63-83	W	100%
12-13	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	H	78-52	W	100%
12-16	Oregon (72.0)	P12	H	61-68	L	0%
12-27	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	H	65-80	L	0%
12-30	Air Force (253.0)	MWC	H	71-59	W	100%
1-3	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	A	81-79	L	0%
1-6	Colorado St. (234.0)	MWC	A	79-82	W	100%
1-9	Boise St. (50.0)	MWC	H	64-70	L	0%
1-13	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	H	89-80	W	100%
1-17	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	A	73-77	W	100%
1-23	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	H	69-63	W	100%
1-27	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	H	62-65	L	0%
1-31	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	A	102-92	L	0%
2-3	Wyoming (98.0)	MWC	A	62-80	W	100%
2-6	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	H	79-61	W	100%
2-14	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	A	57-77	W	100%
2-17	Colorado St. (234.0)	MWC	H	86-65	W	100%
2-21	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	A	64-77	W	100%
2-24	Wyoming (98.0)	MWC	H	68-78	L	0%
2-26	Air Force (253.0)	MWC	A	48-54	W	100%
3-3	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	A	95-86	L	0%
3-8	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	N	52-64	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fresno St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Fresno St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Fresno St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Fresno St.	MWC	26.33	26.33	61.49	61.49	6.05	6.05
San Diego St.	MWC	5.84	5.84	71.43	71.43	2.50	2.50
New Mexico	MWC	4.32	4.32	54.84	54.84	0.42	0.42
Utah St.	MWC	4.29	4.29	45.16	45.16	-0.42	-0.42
Nevada	MWC	4.26	4.26	78.12	78.12	2.40	2.40
Colorado St.	MWC	4.25	4.25	34.48	34.48	-1.32	-1.32
UNLV	MWC	4.23	4.23	64.52	64.52	1.23	1.23
Wyoming	MWC	4.20	4.20	60.00	60.00	0.84	0.84
Air Force	MWC	4.19	4.19	37.04	37.04	-1.09	-1.09
Boise St.	MWC	2.66	2.66	72.41	72.41	1.19	1.19
San Jose St.	MWC	2.64	2.64	10.71	10.71	-2.07	-2.07
Long Beach St.	BW	1.84	1.84	43.33	43.33	-0.24	-0.24
Cal St. Northridge	BW	1.80	1.80	14.81	14.81	-1.27	-1.27
Cal Poly	BW	1.78	1.78	25.00	25.00	-0.89	-0.89
Weber St.	BSky	1.77	1.77	62.96	62.96	0.46	0.46
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	1.75	1.75	41.18	41.18	-0.31	-0.31
Arkansas	SEC	1.75	1.75	66.67	66.67	0.58	0.58
Oregon	P12	1.75	1.75	63.64	63.64	0.48	0.48
Montana St.	BSky	1.75	1.75	37.93	37.93	-0.42	-0.42
Evansville	MVC	1.72	1.72	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
George Mason	A10	1.70	1.70	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	1.69	1.69	34.62	34.62	-0.52	-0.52
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.31	0.31	16.67	16.67	-0.20	-0.20
UC Irvine	BW	0.27	0.27	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.25	0.25	36.67	36.67	-0.07	-0.07
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.25	0.25	61.29	61.29	0.06	0.06
Hawaii	BW	0.24	0.24	53.57	53.57	0.02	0.02
Pacific	WCC	0.23	0.23	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
UC Riverside	BW	0.23	0.23	24.14	24.14	-0.12	-0.12
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.23	0.23	70.00	70.00	0.09	0.09
UC Davis	BW	0.22	0.22	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.22	0.22	83.33	83.33	0.14	0.14
Arizona	P12	0.21	0.21	79.41	79.41	0.12	0.12
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.20	0.20	62.07	62.07	0.05	0.05
Idaho	BSky	0.20	0.20	68.97	68.97	0.07	0.07
Portland St.	BSky	0.19	0.19	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.19	0.19	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.19	0.19	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.18	0.18	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Idaho St.	BSky	0.18	0.18	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.17	0.17	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.17	0.17	12.50	12.50	-0.13	-0.13
North Dakota	BSky	0.17	0.17	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Denver	Sum	0.17	0.17	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.17	0.17	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
California	P12	0.16	0.16	25.81	25.81	-0.08	-0.08
Washington St.	P12	0.15	0.15	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Utah	P12	0.15	0.15	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.15	0.15	44.12	44.12	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.15	0.15	13.33	13.33	-0.11	-0.11
Texas St.	SB	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.13	0.13	88.24	88.24	0.10	0.10
Santa Clara	WCC	0.13	0.13	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Utah Valley	WAC	0.12	0.12	65.52	65.52	0.04	0.04
Montana	BSky	0.12	0.12	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Binghamton	AE	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Drake	MVC	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.11	0.11	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Valparaiso	MVC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.10	0.10	17.24	17.24	-0.07	-0.07
TCU	B12	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.09	0.09	16.13	16.13	-0.06	-0.06
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	32.00	32.00	-0.03	-0.03
SMU	Amer	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
BYU	WCC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Stanford	P12	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UTEP	CUSA	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri	SEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	Amer	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Davidson	A10	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
USC	P12	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	3.33	3.33	-0.06	-0.06
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	8.00	8.00	-0.05	-0.05
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	Amer	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01