Fresno St.

Conference:	WAC
Expected RPI:	183.3
Current RPI:	192
Expected SOS:	151
Current SOS:	136
Current Record:	9-14
Expected Record:	13-17
Current Conf Record:	3-6
Expected Conf Record:	6-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	7.81%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-2
Current OOC Record:	6-8
Expected OOC Record:	8-8
Expected OOC RPI:	177
Expected OOC SOS:	223

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-14	134.9	2.82%
15-15	153.1	14.45%
14-16	172.3	29.63%
13-17	190.5	30.08%
12-18	207.8	16.63%
11-19	224.0	5.25%
10-20	241.2	1.03%
9-21	257.4	0.10%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fresno St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Illinois St. (109.6)	MVC	H	55-47	W	100%	0.0
11-14	Stanford (90.1)	P12	A	75-59	L	0%	0.0
11-15	Southern Methodist (213.4)	CUSA	N	52-54	W	100%	0.0
11-21	Manhattan (115.2)	MAAC	N	83-85	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Texas San Antonio (170.6)	Slnd	N	83-79	L	0%	0.0
11-26	North Dakota St. (127.4)	Sum	A	78-65	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Utah (271.2)	P12	H	82-52	W	100%	0.0
12-7	Colorado (74.8)	P12	A	71-64	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Oregon (88.4)	P12	A	74-70	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Cal Poly (194.2)	BW	H	46-65	L	0%	0.0
12-19	Boise St. (177.2)	MWC	A	70-63	L	0%	0.0
12-21	Arizona St. (240.7)	P12	A	65-68	W	100%	0.0
12-29	Pacific (264.2)	BW	A	47-55	W	100%	0.0
1-2	Boise St. (177.2)	MWC	H	72-59	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Utah St. (132.9)	WAC	A	72-53	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Idaho (167.7)	WAC	A	63-59	L	0%	0.0
1-12	Hawaii (186.2)	WAC	H	68-74	L	0%	0.0
1-14	San Jose St. (280.7)	WAC	H	82-73	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Nevada (64.1)	WAC	A	74-61	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Louisiana Tech (202.9)	WAC	A	59-58	L	0%	0.0
1-28	New Mexico St. (72.2)	WAC	A	60-56	L	0%	0.0
2-2	Idaho (167.7)	WAC	H	65-55	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Utah St. (132.9)	WAC	H	60-54	W	100%	0.0
2-9	San Jose St. (280.7)	WAC	A	0-0		67%	4.8
2-11	Hawaii (186.2)	WAC	A	0-0		44%	-1.7
2-18	Cal St. Northridge (309.3)	BW	A	0-0		79%	8.6
2-23	Seattle (290.1)	ind	H	0-0		79%	8.9
2-25	Nevada (64.1)	WAC	H	0-0		48%	-0.5
3-1	Louisiana Tech (202.9)	WAC	H	0-0		76%	7.8
3-3	New Mexico St. (72.2)	WAC	H	0-0		40%	-2.6

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fresno St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Fresno St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Fresno St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Fresno St.	WAC	26.43	26.34	40.66	45.77	-4.94	-2.23
Idaho	WAC	4.85	4.15	50.00	51.58	0.00	0.13
San Jose St.	WAC	2.77	4.15	28.57	27.73	-1.19	-1.85
Utah St.	WAC	4.80	4.13	50.00	53.16	0.00	0.26
Hawaii	WAC	2.72	4.12	55.00	51.10	0.27	0.09
Nevada	WAC	2.85	4.08	80.00	76.45	1.71	2.16
Louisiana Tech	WAC	2.66	4.06	40.00	42.16	-0.53	-0.64
New Mexico St.	WAC	2.62	4.03	68.18	68.23	0.95	1.47
Boise St.	MWC	4.50	3.45	42.11	40.40	-0.71	-0.66
Pacific	BW	2.52	2.05	36.84	39.00	-0.66	-0.45
Seattle	ind	0.48	1.98	22.22	33.53	-0.26	-0.65
Utah	P12	2.47	1.95	19.05	15.54	-1.53	-1.35
Stanford	P12	2.42	1.93	68.18	67.24	0.88	0.67
Arizona St.	P12	2.47	1.93	31.82	32.48	-0.90	-0.68
Cal Poly	BW	2.33	1.91	47.62	55.21	-0.11	0.20
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.26	1.90	21.05	22.50	-0.15	-1.05
Colorado	P12	2.37	1.89	65.00	61.31	0.71	0.43
Oregon	P12	2.37	1.87	68.18	63.26	0.86	0.50
Southern Methodist	CUSA	2.23	1.72	40.00	39.15	-0.45	-0.37
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	2.22	1.72	55.00	59.32	0.22	0.32
North Dakota St.	Sum	2.22	1.69	60.00	62.12	0.44	0.41
Illinois St.	MVC	2.17	1.67	65.22	64.21	0.66	0.47
Manhattan	MAAC	2.17	1.67	66.67	68.05	0.72	0.60
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.50	0.50	47.83	47.88	-0.02	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.35	0.42	0.00	5.31	-0.35	-0.38
UC Riverside	BW	0.31	0.33	42.86	39.66	-0.04	-0.07
Washington	P12	0.29	0.32	69.57	66.59	0.12	0.11
Oregon St.	P12	0.34	0.32	63.64	63.17	0.09	0.08
California	P12	0.29	0.31	75.00	74.62	0.15	0.15
Long Beach St.	BW	0.36	0.30	71.43	73.45	0.15	0.14
Arizona	P12	0.29	0.28	66.67	68.55	0.10	0.11
UC Irvine	BW	0.21	0.28	35.00	35.26	-0.06	-0.08
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.26	0.27	82.61	81.43	0.17	0.17
Colorado St.	MWC	0.35	0.26	66.67	60.84	0.12	0.06
Southern California	P12	0.29	0.26	25.00	25.08	-0.15	-0.13
New Mexico	MWC	0.25	0.26	81.82	81.02	0.16	0.16
Washington St.	P12	0.34	0.26	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.10	0.24	55.56	58.02	0.01	0.04
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.19	0.23	85.71	82.22	0.14	0.15
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.25	0.23	43.48	43.27	-0.03	-0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.10	0.21	42.86	45.93	-0.01	-0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.20	0.21	65.00	66.71	0.06	0.07
San Francisco	WCC	0.20	0.21	56.52	53.76	0.03	0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.24	0.21	45.00	41.71	-0.02	-0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.21	0.21	76.19	70.71	0.11	0.09
Drake	MVC	0.15	0.20	52.17	50.01	0.01	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.24	0.20	54.55	56.78	0.02	0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.15	0.18	31.82	33.75	-0.05	-0.06
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.20	0.18	40.91	44.29	-0.04	-0.02
Montana	BSky	0.15	0.18	71.43	73.99	0.06	0.09
Idaho St.	BSky	0.24	0.17	31.82	32.98	-0.09	-0.06
Brigham Young	WCC	0.24	0.17	75.00	76.02	0.12	0.09
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.19	0.17	76.19	75.98	0.10	0.09
Air Force	MWC	0.16	0.15	47.37	42.13	-0.01	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.20	0.15	21.74	21.75	-0.12	-0.08
Texas Christian	MWC	0.10	0.15	57.14	49.57	0.01	-0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.10	0.14	44.44	45.20	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.19	0.14	80.00	76.71	0.11	0.08
Wichita St.	MVC	0.19	0.14	82.61	80.50	0.12	0.09
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.13	28.57	25.79	-0.02	-0.06
Utah Valley	GWC	0.09	0.12	54.55	57.71	0.01	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.10	0.12	28.57	26.31	-0.04	-0.06
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.21	0.12	80.77	80.77	0.13	0.07
San Diego St.	MWC	0.10	0.12	85.71	78.11	0.07	0.07
Southern Utah	Sum	0.19	0.12	45.45	44.27	-0.02	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.10	0.12	24.00	24.86	-0.05	-0.06
Denver	SB	0.19	0.12	70.83	72.24	0.08	0.05
Indiana St.	MVC	0.15	0.12	56.52	54.28	0.02	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.14	0.12	54.17	57.11	0.01	0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.15	0.11	43.48	44.26	-0.02	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.11	27.78	29.77	-0.02	-0.05
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.11	79.17	80.14	0.05	0.07
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.14	0.11	17.39	20.75	-0.09	-0.07
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.13	0.11	20.83	23.73	-0.08	-0.06
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.15	0.09	35.00	39.40	-0.05	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.10	0.09	48.00	50.28	-0.00	0.00
North Dakota	GWC	0.05	0.09	33.33	41.30	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.09	35.00	40.74	-0.03	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.10	0.09	47.62	44.58	-0.00	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.10	0.09	55.00	54.45	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.09	30.00	33.22	-0.02	-0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.09	27.78	29.51	-0.02	-0.04
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.15	0.09	47.83	42.67	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.10	0.09	44.44	48.16	-0.01	-0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.15	0.09	60.87	59.05	0.03	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.10	0.08	20.83	25.85	-0.06	-0.04
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.08	30.00	31.40	-0.02	-0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.09	0.08	56.52	54.88	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.00	0.07	37.50	38.36	-0.00	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.06	90.48	87.91	0.04	0.05
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.06	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.03
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.10	0.06	33.33	32.18	-0.03	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.06	34.78	35.53	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.06	34.78	35.19	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.06	26.32	28.82	-0.02	-0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.06	73.91	75.47	0.02	0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.06	52.63	48.32	0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	40.91	42.97	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.06	54.17	47.95	0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.06	47.83	45.51	-0.00	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.06	81.82	81.50	0.03	0.04
Iowa	B10	0.10	0.06	54.17	49.41	0.01	-0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.10	0.06	59.09	57.27	0.02	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.06	31.82	34.86	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.10	0.06	5.26	7.29	-0.09	-0.05
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	14.29	16.80	-0.04	-0.04
Wright St.	Horz	0.10	0.06	41.67	40.47	-0.02	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.69	0.02	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.10	0.06	13.64	16.23	-0.07	-0.04
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.06	69.57	65.18	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	42.11	49.86	-0.01	-0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.06	8.70	8.99	-0.04	-0.05
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.06	19.05	19.39	-0.03	-0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.06	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.06	47.62	46.51	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.10	0.06	26.32	29.85	-0.05	-0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	22.22	27.56	-0.03	-0.03
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.06	61.90	58.61	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.06	47.83	42.19	-0.00	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.10	0.06	47.62	47.19	-0.00	-0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.09	0.06	36.36	40.96	-0.03	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	28.57	34.11	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.09	0.06	84.00	82.62	0.06	0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.09	0.06	47.83	47.08	-0.00	-0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.09	0.06	71.43	69.05	0.04	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.09	0.06	78.26	72.28	0.05	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.06	62.50	61.43	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.06	47.62	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.09	0.06	34.78	32.10	-0.03	-0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	39.13	36.12	-0.01	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.09	0.05	95.83	92.00	0.08	0.05
Canisius	MAAC	0.04	0.05	17.39	19.76	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.04	0.05	78.26	74.29	0.02	0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.09	0.05	34.78	33.44	-0.03	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.09	0.05	36.00	40.36	-0.02	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.09	0.05	40.00	39.70	-0.02	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.04	0.05	43.48	45.03	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.03	54.17	54.76	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.03	70.83	62.75	0.02	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	41.17	-0.00	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.03	60.87	53.44	0.01	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	31.82	42.18	-0.02	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.81	-0.00	-0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.03	71.43	66.55	0.02	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.03	44.44	41.65	-0.01	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.03	47.83	47.36	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.03	42.86	43.11	-0.01	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.00	0.03	66.67	69.71	0.00	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	18.18	23.34	-0.03	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.03	61.90	67.29	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.00	0.03	59.09	59.78	0.00	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.65	0.02	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.03	69.57	71.58	0.02	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.03	63.64	56.68	0.01	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	52.17	58.49	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	23.81	33.67	-0.03	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.72	0.02	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	25.00	23.73	-0.03	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.20	-0.02	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.03	90.91	87.78	0.04	0.02
Troy	SB	0.05	0.03	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.00	0.03	40.91	39.81	-0.00	-0.01
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.81	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.03	9.09	12.82	-0.04	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.03	69.57	61.84	0.02	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.89	-0.01	-0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	47.09	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.03	50.00	44.98	0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	69.57	70.42	0.02	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.03	42.11	45.89	-0.01	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	70.83	64.53	0.02	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	46.87	0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.03	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.03	26.32	29.64	-0.02	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.88	0.02	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.03	47.83	43.63	-0.00	-0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.04	0.03	0.00	4.04	-0.04	-0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.04	0.03	27.27	23.78	-0.02	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.04	0.03	55.00	54.81	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.04	0.03	40.91	34.45	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.04	0.03	76.00	72.48	0.02	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.04	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.04	0.03	33.33	38.39	-0.01	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.04	0.03	54.55	56.80	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.04	0.03	4.00	5.27	-0.04	-0.02