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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Fresno St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:66.0
Current RPI:66
Expected SOS:129
Current SOS:129
Current Record:23-9
Expected Record:23-9
Current Conf Record:16-5
Expected Conf Record:16-5
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:13-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:136
Expected OOC SOS:200



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-966.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fresno St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Pepperdine (129.0)WCCH69-66W100%0.0
11-16Lamar (337.0)SlndH80-72W100%0.0
11-19San Francisco (228.0)WCCH78-71W100%0.0
11-22Rice (279.0)CUSAA65-82W100%0.0
11-27Delaware St. (345.0)MEACH80-59W100%0.0
11-30Oregon (2.0)P12A78-73L0%0.0
12-5Cal Poly (236.0)BWA77-65L0%0.0
12-9Arizona (26.0)P12A85-72L0%0.0
12-12Pacific (268.0)WCCH71-52W100%0.0
12-16Cal St. Bakersfield (117.0)WACH76-68W100%0.0
12-20Evansville (93.0)MVCH77-85L0%0.0
12-30UNLV (147.0)MWCA66-69W100%0.0
1-2New Mexico (141.0)MWCH62-77L0%0.0
1-6Nevada (118.0)MWCH85-63W100%0.0
1-9Boise St. (101.0)MWCA81-70L0%0.0
1-16San Jose St. (301.0)MWCH81-74W100%0.0
1-19San Diego St. (41.0)MWCA73-67L0%0.0
1-23Air Force (226.0)MWCA55-56W100%0.0
1-26Wyoming (187.0)MWCH71-60W100%0.0
2-3San Jose St. (301.0)MWCA65-53L0%0.0
2-6UNLV (147.0)MWCH111-104W100%0.0
2-10San Diego St. (41.0)MWCH58-57W100%0.0
2-13Nevada (118.0)MWCA77-72L0%0.0
2-17Wyoming (187.0)MWCA75-79W100%0.0
2-20Utah St. (151.0)MWCH75-68W100%0.0
2-24Air Force (226.0)MWCH64-63W100%0.0
2-27New Mexico (141.0)MWCA82-92W100%0.0
3-2Colorado St. (181.0)MWCH87-73W100%0.0
3-5Utah St. (151.0)MWCA85-86W100%0.0
3-10UNLV (147.0)MWCA82-95W100%0.0
3-11Colorado St. (181.0)MWCN64-56W100%0.0
3-12San Diego St. (41.0)MWCN63-68W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fresno St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fresno St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fresno St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Fresno St.MWC26.4926.4974.2674.2612.8612.86
UNLVMWC5.635.6357.1457.140.800.80
San Diego St.MWC5.625.6275.8675.862.912.91
Colorado St.MWC4.144.1453.3353.330.280.28
NevadaMWC4.124.1257.1457.140.590.59
Utah St.MWC4.094.0951.8551.850.150.15
New MexicoMWC4.084.0853.3353.330.270.27
WyomingMWC4.084.0842.8642.86-0.58-0.58
Air ForceMWC4.074.0742.8642.86-0.58-0.58
San Jose St.MWC4.014.0119.2319.23-2.47-2.47
Boise St.MWC2.662.6658.6258.620.460.46
ArizonaP121.771.7775.0075.000.880.88
San FranciscoWCC1.751.7550.0050.000.000.00
PacificWCC1.741.7424.0024.00-0.91-0.91
OregonP121.711.7181.2581.251.071.07
PepperdineWCC1.701.7058.6258.620.290.29
RiceCUSA1.671.6734.4834.48-0.52-0.52
Cal PolyBW1.641.6425.9325.93-0.79-0.79
Delaware St.MEAC1.621.6217.2417.24-1.06-1.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.611.6175.0075.000.810.81
LamarSlnd1.611.6128.0028.00-0.71-0.71
EvansvilleMVC1.561.5671.8871.880.680.68
Santa ClaraWCC0.320.3233.3333.33-0.11-0.11
San DiegoWCC0.300.3027.5927.59-0.13-0.13
New Mexico St.WAC0.280.2867.7467.740.100.10
BYUWCC0.270.2768.7568.750.100.10
Montana St.BSky0.270.2743.3343.33-0.04-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.270.2738.7138.71-0.06-0.06
Long Beach St.BW0.250.2556.2556.250.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.250.2583.8783.870.170.17
CaliforniaP120.250.2569.7069.700.100.10
UC IrvineBW0.240.2471.8871.880.110.11
Loyola MarymountWCC0.240.2443.3343.33-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.240.2435.4835.48-0.07-0.07
UCLAP120.220.2246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
UtahP120.190.1975.7675.760.100.10
GonzagaWCC0.190.1978.1278.120.110.11
Wichita St.MVC0.180.1874.1974.190.080.08
Arizona St.P120.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
USCP120.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
Northern IowaMVC0.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.150.1579.3179.310.090.09
Nicholls St.Slnd0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Oregon St.P120.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.140.1418.5218.52-0.09-0.09
SeattleWAC0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
UC DavisBW0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
DrakeMVC0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
Missouri St.MVC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Washington St.P120.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
IdahoBSky0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
HawaiiBW0.110.1183.3383.330.070.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
DenverSum0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
South DakotaSum0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
BradleyMVC0.100.1012.9012.90-0.07-0.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0956.0056.000.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.080.083.453.45-0.08-0.08
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0862.8662.860.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0822.8622.86-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0814.2914.29-0.05-0.05
UTEPCUSA0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0787.1087.100.050.05
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.070.0787.8887.880.060.06
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0682.1482.140.040.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0520.8320.83-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0211.1111.11-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01