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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Fresno St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:206.8
Current RPI:290
Expected SOS:94
Current SOS:232
Current Record:0-2
Expected Record:9-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-3
Current OOC Record:0-2
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:251
Expected OOC SOS:175



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1054.20.05%
16-1176.80.12%
15-1285.00.53%
14-13105.21.58%
13-14122.73.43%
12-15144.16.90%
11-16165.211.27%
10-17185.415.88%
9-18205.416.41%
8-19226.816.97%
7-20246.413.04%
6-21265.48.02%
5-22281.73.85%
4-23296.11.39%
3-24309.40.40%
2-25319.70.12%
1-26328.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fresno St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Pepperdine (150.0)WCCA89-74L0%0.0
11-20Northern Arizona (177.8)BSkyA73-52L0%0.0
11-24Evansville (102.7)MVCN0-031%-6.0
11-30California (32.2)P12H0-017%-11.7
12-3UC Irvine (119.8)BWH0-043%-2.2
12-6Cal St. Bakersfield (298.9)WACA0-058%2.6
12-10Texas Tech (173.3)B12A0-026%-7.6
12-13Cal Poly (200.5)BWH0-063%4.1
12-20Pacific (227.9)WCCA0-046%-1.3
12-31New Mexico (101.5)MWCA0-018%-10.8
1-3San Diego St. (21.7)MWCH0-016%-11.8
1-7Utah St. (106.1)MWCH0-042%-2.3
1-10Nevada (141.7)MWCA0-024%-8.3
1-14San Jose St. (296.3)MWCA0-057%2.0
1-17Wyoming (135.4)MWCH0-046%-1.2
1-24Nevada (141.7)MWCH0-046%-1.1
1-27San Diego St. (21.7)MWCA0-06%-19.0
1-31Colorado St. (65.3)MWCA0-017%-11.4
2-4San Jose St. (296.3)MWCH0-078%9.2
2-10UNLV (148.0)MWCA0-030%-6.4
2-14Boise St. (64.0)MWCH0-033%-5.3
2-18Colorado St. (65.3)MWCH0-036%-4.2
2-21Utah St. (106.1)MWCA0-021%-9.5
2-25Wyoming (135.4)MWCA0-024%-8.4
2-28New Mexico (101.5)MWCH0-038%-3.7
3-4Air Force (198.7)MWCH0-058%2.5
3-7Boise St. (64.0)MWCA0-015%-12.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fresno St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fresno St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fresno St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Fresno St.MWC35.4226.430.0033.10-35.42-8.93
NevadaMWC0.004.7350.0051.070.000.10
WyomingMWC0.004.70100.0055.510.000.52
Utah St.MWC0.004.67100.0064.050.001.31
Colorado St.MWC0.004.67100.0062.040.001.13
San Diego St.MWC0.004.67100.0081.620.002.95
San Jose St.MWC6.254.660.0019.69-6.25-2.83
Boise St.MWC0.004.63100.0065.060.001.40
New MexicoMWC0.004.6375.0061.280.001.04
Air ForceMWC0.002.9550.0045.470.00-0.27
UNLVMWC0.002.9266.6745.290.00-0.27
CaliforniaP120.002.0675.0072.890.000.94
PacificWCC0.002.0250.0028.900.00-0.85
Cal PolyBW0.002.0250.0038.310.00-0.47
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.002.010.0033.30-0.00-0.67
PepperdineWCC25.002.00100.0049.1825.00-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.001.9650.0063.130.000.51
Texas TechB120.001.8950.0042.520.00-0.28
EvansvilleMVC0.001.85100.0063.190.000.49
Northern ArizonaBSky25.001.850.0052.60-25.000.10
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.380.0038.57-0.00-0.09
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.3633.3365.68-0.000.11
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.3150.0047.150.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.31100.0043.140.00-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.31100.0070.600.000.13
Long Beach St.BW0.000.2833.3352.91-0.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2733.3328.03-0.00-0.12
San DiegoWCC0.000.2766.6748.270.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.27100.0069.310.000.10
Idaho St.BSky0.000.260.0028.50-0.00-0.11
PortlandWCC0.000.24100.0050.390.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.2433.3344.98-0.00-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.240.0027.23-0.00-0.11
WashingtonP120.000.23100.0056.460.000.03
ColoradoP120.000.19100.0068.420.000.07
MontanaBSky0.000.190.0049.81-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.190.0047.54-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.1950.0026.710.00-0.09
GonzagaWCC0.000.18100.0086.950.000.13
San FranciscoWCC0.000.18100.0061.810.000.04
HawaiiBW0.000.1775.0054.690.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.17100.0057.620.000.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.160.0024.22-0.00-0.08
Montana St.BSky0.000.160.0024.76-0.00-0.08
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.140.0054.32-0.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.1433.3347.72-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1350.0054.580.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.1333.3327.05-0.00-0.06
DenverSum0.000.1350.0062.440.000.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1350.0049.560.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1350.0044.430.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.1366.6770.360.000.05
Weber St.BSky0.000.130.0055.60-0.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.13100.0068.970.000.05
Arizona St.P120.000.12100.0058.420.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1150.0035.570.00-0.03
BradleyMVC0.000.100.0025.34-0.00-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.100.0038.29-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1025.0033.23-0.00-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.1050.0046.900.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.1050.0047.220.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.10100.0051.300.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1033.3349.18-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.10100.0081.110.000.06
SouthernSWAC0.000.100.0045.55-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0950.0060.200.000.02
StanfordP120.000.09100.0068.290.000.03
TexasB120.000.09100.0084.130.000.06
MarshallCUSA0.000.0766.6751.090.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.07100.0057.560.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.070.0033.61-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.070.0028.82-0.00-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0750.0051.340.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.07100.0068.990.000.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0733.3351.38-0.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.07100.0084.100.000.05
IUPUISum0.000.0733.3330.78-0.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.070.0029.61-0.00-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.070.0038.12-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.07100.0058.280.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.0027.18-0.00-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.07100.0064.850.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.070.0058.17-0.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.07100.0065.750.000.02
MercerSC0.000.0750.0052.770.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.07100.0059.140.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.07100.0029.380.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0750.0059.030.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.07100.0069.630.000.03
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0036.84-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.06100.0070.690.000.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0650.0041.690.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0020.87-0.00-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0016.72-0.00-0.04
George MasonA100.000.0625.0022.09-0.00-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0650.0062.510.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0036.560.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.060.0043.21-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0633.3367.72-0.000.02
StetsonASun0.000.060.0032.16-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0666.6752.470.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.06100.0061.420.000.01
BaylorB120.000.06100.0068.940.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0061.270.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0666.6755.230.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0650.0059.230.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0053.870.000.00
TCUB120.000.06100.0054.240.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0068.580.000.02
UCLAP120.000.06100.0061.850.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.040.0034.57-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.04100.0055.380.000.00
IPFWSum0.000.0450.0065.390.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.04100.0069.720.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0062.15-0.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.03100.0057.810.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0350.0072.160.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0031.68-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0023.71-0.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0032.47-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0033.640.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0037.45-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0072.260.000.02
OhioMAC0.000.0350.0054.660.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0027.74-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0366.6754.260.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0350.0052.540.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.03100.0058.330.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0034.15-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0350.0067.840.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0023.20-0.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0350.0062.660.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0038.65-0.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0063.960.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0333.3359.35-0.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.030.0048.03-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6760.220.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.030.0054.04-0.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0048.22-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0061.070.000.01
ToledoMAC4.170.0333.3363.82-1.390.01
UTSACUSA0.000.030.0028.13-0.00-0.01
XavierBE4.170.03100.0076.434.170.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6742.560.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0366.6738.520.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0366.6756.820.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0046.320.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0053.20-0.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0038.83-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0031.91-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0040.22-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.030.0027.11-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.03100.0050.080.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0333.3349.73-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0070.210.000.01