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Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


Fresno St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:273.6
Current RPI:347
Expected SOS:116
Current SOS:339
Current Record:0-5
Expected Record:7-22
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-5
Current OOC Record:0-5
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:326
Expected OOC SOS:239



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-14138.00.01%
14-15167.00.01%
13-16159.30.34%
12-17180.00.71%
11-18196.82.02%
10-19215.14.92%
9-20235.89.94%
8-21253.514.88%
7-22271.219.24%
6-23287.119.32%
5-24300.714.84%
4-25313.68.68%
3-26321.83.63%
2-27330.61.27%
1-28338.70.17%
-0-29344.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fresno St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Pepperdine (135.8)WCCA89-74L0%0.0
11-20Northern Arizona (206.8)BSkyA73-52L0%0.0
11-24Evansville (74.1)MVCN58-52L0%0.0
11-25East Carolina (229.7)AmerN52-58L0%0.0
11-26Marist (276.4)MAACN68-64L0%0.0
11-30California (48.7)P12H0-013%-13.4
12-3UC Irvine (102.2)BWH0-028%-7.1
12-6Cal St. Bakersfield (292.7)WACA0-046%-1.3
12-10Texas Tech (163.9)B12A0-019%-10.6
12-13Cal Poly (228.6)BWH0-059%2.6
12-20Pacific (233.0)WCCA0-034%-4.8
12-31New Mexico (133.3)MWCA0-015%-12.5
1-3San Diego St. (17.7)MWCH0-08%-16.9
1-7Utah St. (151.4)MWCH0-039%-3.4
1-10Nevada (187.5)MWCA0-021%-9.5
1-14San Jose St. (307.3)MWCA0-048%-0.6
1-17Wyoming (87.2)MWCH0-024%-8.6
1-24Nevada (187.5)MWCH0-042%-2.3
1-27San Diego St. (17.7)MWCA0-02%-24.1
1-31Colorado St. (54.8)MWCA0-09%-16.3
2-4San Jose St. (307.3)MWCH0-071%6.6
2-10UNLV (125.0)MWCA0-018%-11.0
2-14Boise St. (85.7)MWCH0-028%-7.0
2-18Colorado St. (54.8)MWCH0-022%-9.1
2-21Utah St. (151.4)MWCA0-019%-10.6
2-25Wyoming (87.2)MWCA0-09%-15.8
2-28New Mexico (133.3)MWCH0-033%-5.3
3-4Air Force (197.6)MWCH0-048%-0.7
3-7Boise St. (85.7)MWCA0-012%-14.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fresno St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fresno St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fresno St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Fresno St.MWC31.1726.370.0022.39-31.17-14.56
NevadaMWC0.004.4025.0041.49-0.00-0.75
WyomingMWC0.004.36100.0068.560.001.62
Utah St.MWC0.004.3360.0053.910.000.34
San Diego St.MWC0.004.3383.3383.790.002.93
Colorado St.MWC0.004.33100.0066.900.001.46
San Jose St.MWC1.674.330.0017.48-1.67-2.81
New MexicoMWC0.004.3060.0054.180.000.36
Boise St.MWC0.004.3080.0061.650.001.00
Air ForceMWC0.002.7333.3345.20-0.00-0.26
UNLVMWC0.002.7075.0050.650.000.04
CaliforniaP120.001.9180.0069.700.000.75
PacificWCC0.001.8833.3329.94-0.00-0.75
Cal PolyBW0.001.8833.3335.40-0.00-0.55
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.001.8720.0037.83-0.00-0.45
PepperdineWCC10.001.8650.0053.930.000.15
UC IrvineBW0.001.8233.3367.34-0.000.63
Texas TechB120.001.7675.0044.300.00-0.20
East CarolinaAmer10.001.720.0033.07-10.00-0.58
EvansvilleMVC10.001.7266.6767.193.330.59
MaristMAAC10.001.720.0030.85-10.00-0.66
Northern ArizonaBSky10.001.720.0048.25-10.00-0.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.3525.0033.19-0.00-0.12
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.3350.0071.940.000.15
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.2933.3339.69-0.00-0.06
UC DavisBW0.000.29100.0053.380.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.29100.0071.830.000.13
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2550.0025.330.00-0.13
San DiegoWCC0.000.2575.0049.940.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.2525.0051.07-0.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.2550.0067.000.000.08
Idaho St.BSky0.000.240.0024.87-0.00-0.12
PortlandWCC0.000.23100.0051.720.000.01
HawaiiBW2.250.2271.4357.180.960.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.2233.3338.74-0.00-0.05
UC RiversideBW0.000.220.0024.69-0.00-0.11
WashingtonP120.000.21100.0055.210.000.02
San FranciscoWCC1.250.1950.0058.990.000.03
ColoradoP120.000.1875.0060.100.000.04
MontanaBSky0.000.1833.3351.01-0.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.180.0052.30-0.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.1825.0052.85-0.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.17100.0075.690.000.09
USCP120.000.1750.0028.760.00-0.07
GonzagaWCC0.000.16100.0088.520.000.13
Southern UtahBSky0.000.150.0016.41-0.00-0.10
Montana St.BSky0.000.150.0020.63-0.00-0.09
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.130.0056.00-0.000.02
SeattleWAC0.000.1325.0044.95-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.1250.0060.810.000.03
Washington St.P120.000.1233.3329.54-0.00-0.05
HoustonAmer0.000.1266.6760.360.000.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1275.0051.040.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1240.0046.02-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1250.0064.230.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.12100.0061.080.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.1260.0053.110.000.01
UtahP120.000.1175.0073.450.000.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0950.0050.040.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0916.6731.72-0.00-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0950.0045.290.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0950.0029.060.00-0.04
IdahoBSky0.000.0933.3348.27-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.09100.0056.970.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0933.3354.73-0.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.09100.0086.460.000.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0018.42-0.00-0.06
SMUAmer0.000.0950.0065.300.000.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0035.41-0.00-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0950.0040.810.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0950.0049.570.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.0960.0050.320.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0940.0038.08-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.0966.6759.280.000.02
TexasB120.000.09100.0080.270.000.05
StanfordP120.000.0880.0070.970.000.04
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0019.74-0.00-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0666.6753.550.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0660.0067.690.000.02
MercerSC0.000.0633.3354.15-0.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0072.490.000.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0030.94-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0018.95-0.00-0.04
ClemsonACC0.000.0660.0050.770.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0650.0044.930.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0065.430.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0064.150.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0650.0032.470.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0620.0042.29-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat1.000.06100.0069.411.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0640.0030.81-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.0660.0063.060.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0038.82-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0675.0069.010.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0625.0024.98-0.00-0.03
Green BayHorz2.500.0675.0077.521.250.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0675.0043.690.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0650.0068.710.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0045.580.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3351.34-0.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.06100.0077.900.000.03
South FloridaAmer0.000.0675.0055.330.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0640.0047.86-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.060.0030.90-0.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0055.460.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0666.6740.010.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0084.900.000.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0680.0074.900.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3346.13-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.000.06100.0070.110.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0650.0052.730.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0022.25-0.00-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0640.0032.41-0.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0620.0021.73-0.00-0.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0680.0079.380.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0675.0062.480.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0650.0046.630.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3357.92-0.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0625.0048.57-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0650.0052.150.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0633.3330.18-0.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.0675.0064.910.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0061.400.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0660.0057.880.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0650.0055.700.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0046.840.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0620.0041.72-0.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0633.3361.50-0.000.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0061.120.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0675.0068.260.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0675.0055.290.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0069.720.000.02
UCLAP120.000.0680.0063.410.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0325.0026.31-0.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6753.510.000.00
IPFWSum0.000.0366.6762.950.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0380.0066.690.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0020.69-0.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0325.0031.71-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6739.87-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0028.78-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0360.0051.520.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0375.0055.980.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0325.0045.71-0.00-0.00
IowaB101.670.0366.6765.830.560.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0027.68-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0064.050.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0039.18-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0062.99-0.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0380.0076.610.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.030.0030.79-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.64-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0038.94-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0316.6745.77-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0380.0046.930.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC1.250.0340.0026.51-0.25-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.000.0366.6749.610.33-0.00
MississippiSEC1.000.0375.0052.920.500.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0333.3367.86-0.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0325.0048.11-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0375.0067.420.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0366.6751.430.000.00
ToledoMAC1.000.0340.0060.24-0.200.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0366.6739.850.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth1.250.0325.0052.61-0.620.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0028.63-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0366.6747.140.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3329.25-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0366.6756.860.000.00
XavierBE1.000.03100.0077.811.000.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0063.440.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0360.0037.550.00-0.01
BucknellPat1.000.0333.3335.82-0.33-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0340.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.000.0380.0071.650.600.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0340.0031.26-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0360.0055.990.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0333.3359.02-0.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0375.0038.820.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0048.64-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.030.0023.29-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0042.16-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0360.0039.490.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0065.310.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0035.63-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0325.0036.44-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0033.69-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0333.3330.11-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0350.0042.760.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0037.52-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0380.0068.140.000.01