Fresno St.

Conference:	MWC
Expected RPI:	135.0
Current RPI:	135
Expected SOS:	18
Current SOS:	18
Current Record:	9-19
Expected Record:	9-19
Current Conf Record:	5-12
Expected Conf Record:	5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	1-0
Current OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC RPI:	176
Expected OOC SOS:	122

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-19	135.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fresno St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Texas (116.0)	B12	A	55-53	L	0%
11-14	UC Riverside (338.0)	BW	A	30-39	W	100%
11-16	Pacific (97.0)	BW	H	66-61	W	100%
11-19	Cal Poly (164.0)	BW	A	67-76	W	100%
11-25	Long Beach St. (115.0)	BW	H	61-69	L	0%
11-28	Southern Illinois (192.0)	MVC	A	57-54	L	0%
12-3	Long Beach St. (115.0)	BW	A	59-64	W	100%
12-9	Washington St. (196.0)	P12	A	59-50	L	0%
12-12	Colorado (38.0)	P12	H	43-50	L	0%
12-15	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	H	51-58	L	0%
12-22	UCLA (26.0)	P12	A	91-78	L	0%
1-9	San Diego St. (30.0)	MWC	H	62-65	L	0%
1-12	New Mexico (2.0)	MWC	A	72-45	L	0%
1-16	Wyoming (75.0)	MWC	H	49-36	W	100%
1-19	Nevada (171.0)	MWC	H	61-68	L	0%
1-23	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	A	74-67	L	0%
1-26	Colorado St. (18.0)	MWC	H	63-74	L	0%
1-30	Air Force (80.0)	MWC	A	62-50	L	0%
2-6	Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)	MWC	H	64-55	W	100%
2-9	San Diego St. (30.0)	MWC	A	75-53	L	0%
2-13	New Mexico (2.0)	MWC	H	48-54	L	0%
2-16	Wyoming (75.0)	MWC	A	55-51	L	0%
2-19	Nevada (171.0)	MWC	A	64-69	W	100%
2-23	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	H	63-72	L	0%
2-27	Colorado St. (18.0)	MWC	A	74-67	L	0%
3-2	Air Force (80.0)	MWC	H	56-41	W	100%
3-9	Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)	MWC	A	52-61	W	100%
3-13	Colorado St. (18.0)	MWC	N	67-61	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fresno St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Fresno St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Fresno St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Fresno St.	MWC	26.46	26.46	34.06	34.06	-8.44	-8.44
Colorado St.	MWC	6.26	6.26	71.43	71.43	2.68	2.68
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	4.69	4.69	77.42	77.42	2.57	2.57
New Mexico	MWC	4.63	4.63	84.38	84.38	3.19	3.19
Nevada	MWC	4.59	4.59	35.71	35.71	-1.31	-1.31
San Diego St.	MWC	4.59	4.59	64.29	64.29	1.31	1.31
Wyoming	MWC	4.59	4.59	57.14	57.14	0.66	0.66
Air Force	MWC	4.55	4.55	53.85	53.85	0.35	0.35
Boise St.	MWC	4.50	4.50	62.96	62.96	1.17	1.17
Long Beach St.	BW	3.86	3.86	57.14	57.14	0.55	0.55
UC Irvine	BW	2.31	2.31	53.12	53.12	0.14	0.14
Pacific	BW	2.20	2.20	64.52	64.52	0.64	0.64
Cal Poly	BW	2.19	2.19	57.14	57.14	0.31	0.31
UC Riverside	BW	2.14	2.14	14.81	14.81	-1.51	-1.51
UCLA	P12	2.07	2.07	72.73	72.73	0.94	0.94
Colorado	P12	2.05	2.05	64.52	64.52	0.60	0.60
Washington St.	P12	1.87	1.87	38.71	38.71	-0.42	-0.42
Texas	B12	1.81	1.81	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
Southern Illinois	MVC	1.79	1.79	41.38	41.38	-0.31	-0.31
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.62	0.62	31.03	31.03	-0.24	-0.24
UC Davis	BW	0.47	0.47	45.16	45.16	-0.05	-0.05
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.47	0.47	40.00	40.00	-0.09	-0.09
Hawaii	BW	0.44	0.44	53.33	53.33	0.03	0.03
Southern California	P12	0.39	0.39	43.75	43.75	-0.05	-0.05
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.38	0.38	41.38	41.38	-0.07	-0.07
Washington	P12	0.34	0.34	54.55	54.55	0.03	0.03
Arizona	P12	0.34	0.34	78.12	78.12	0.19	0.19
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.32	0.32	38.46	38.46	-0.07	-0.07
Oregon	P12	0.28	0.28	76.47	76.47	0.15	0.15
Portland	WCC	0.22	0.22	30.00	30.00	-0.09	-0.09
California	P12	0.22	0.22	64.52	64.52	0.06	0.06
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.21	0.21	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Indiana St.	MVC	0.20	0.20	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.19	0.19	63.64	63.64	0.05	0.05
New Orleans	ind	0.18	0.18	18.18	18.18	-0.12	-0.12
Utah	P12	0.17	0.17	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.17	0.17	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.17	0.17	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.15	0.15	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.15	0.15	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
San Francisco	WCC	0.15	0.15	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	WAC	0.15	0.15	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
Evansville	MVC	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.14	0.14	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
Creighton	MVC	0.12	0.12	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Drake	MVC	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.12	0.12	74.29	74.29	0.06	0.06
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Texas Christian	B12	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.11	0.11	85.29	85.29	0.08	0.08
Iowa St.	B12	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.09	0.09	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.09	0.09	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.09	0.09	81.25	81.25	0.05	0.05
Montana	BSky	0.09	0.09	79.31	79.31	0.05	0.05
North Florida	ASun	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.09	0.09	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
St. Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.08	0.08	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Army	Pat	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	21.43	21.43	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Texas St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	85.19	85.19	0.04	0.04
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	93.75	93.75	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.02	-0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.00	0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01