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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Fresno St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:103.9
Current RPI:119
Expected SOS:128
Current SOS:155
Current Record:12-6
Expected Record:18-10
Current Conf Record:4-3
Expected Conf Record:10-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:138
Expected OOC SOS:288



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-649.00.17%
21-759.32.05%
20-869.68.24%
19-982.620.22%
18-1098.127.85%
17-11116.223.36%
16-12134.812.84%
15-13154.54.13%
14-14171.81.02%
13-15186.60.08%
12-16200.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fresno St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Cal St. Northridge (334.7)BWH89-73W100%0.0
11-17Arkansas (41.6)SECA83-75L0%0.0
11-21Evansville (160.1)MVCN57-59L0%0.0
11-22George Mason (224.6)A10N79-73W100%0.0
11-26Montana St. (219.7)BSkyH80-67W100%0.0
11-30Weber St. (183.0)BSkyH83-71W100%0.0
12-2Long Beach St. (191.0)BWA70-106W100%0.0
12-5Cal St. Bakersfield (216.9)WACH70-55W100%0.0
12-9Cal Poly (282.2)BWA63-83W100%0.0
12-13Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.8)SWACH78-52W100%0.0
12-16Oregon (67.0)P12H61-68L0%0.0
12-27Nevada (15.0)MWCH65-80L0%0.0
12-30Air Force (250.5)MWCH71-59W100%0.0
1-3Utah St. (167.7)MWCA81-79L0%0.0
1-6Colorado St. (176.5)MWCA79-82W100%0.0
1-9Boise St. (39.5)MWCH64-70L0%0.0
1-13New Mexico (157.9)MWCH89-80W100%0.0
1-17San Diego St. (86.0)MWCA73-77W100%0.0
1-23UNLV (123.3)MWCH0-060%3.0
1-27Utah St. (167.7)MWCH0-076%7.8
1-31Nevada (15.0)MWCA0-018%-10.3
2-3Wyoming (101.5)MWCA0-049%-0.2
2-6San Diego St. (86.0)MWCH0-048%-0.6
2-14San Jose St. (304.5)MWCA0-085%11.4
2-17Colorado St. (176.5)MWCH0-082%10.0
2-21UNLV (123.3)MWCA0-038%-3.5
2-24Wyoming (101.5)MWCH0-071%6.2
3-3New Mexico (157.9)MWCA0-049%-0.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fresno St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fresno St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fresno St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Fresno St.MWC26.3526.2662.7961.196.745.88
Colorado St.MWC3.304.4447.3743.63-0.17-0.57
Utah St.MWC3.234.4142.1144.32-0.51-0.50
NevadaMWC3.084.3985.0081.472.152.76
New MexicoMWC3.164.3947.3750.23-0.170.02
WyomingMWC0.434.3861.1158.050.100.71
UNLVMWC0.374.3673.6866.270.171.42
San Diego St.MWC3.064.3562.5065.660.761.36
Boise St.MWC3.202.7477.7876.141.781.43
San Jose St.MWC0.442.7111.7612.72-0.34-2.02
Air ForceMWC3.052.6540.0032.98-0.61-0.90
Long Beach St.BW2.931.9742.1144.83-0.46-0.20
Cal St. NorthridgeBW3.001.9418.7520.05-1.87-1.16
Cal PolyBW2.861.9125.0029.25-1.43-0.79
Weber St.BSky2.921.9060.0059.600.580.37
ArkansasSEC2.931.8866.6763.010.980.49
Montana St.BSky2.851.8852.9449.370.17-0.02
OregonP122.921.8863.1662.620.770.47
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.951.8531.5837.66-1.09-0.46
EvansvilleMVC2.851.8550.0045.480.00-0.17
George MasonA102.861.8247.3742.73-0.15-0.26
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC2.851.8131.2534.54-1.07-0.56
Sacramento St.BSky0.470.3116.6724.46-0.31-0.16
UC IrvineBW0.370.3030.0039.93-0.15-0.06
Southern UtahBSky0.310.2837.5033.78-0.08-0.09
HawaiiBW0.370.2768.7563.960.140.08
New Mexico St.WAC0.290.2583.3384.230.190.17
Northern ColoradoBSky0.160.2458.8257.140.030.03
UC DavisBW0.140.2458.8262.450.020.06
ArizonaP120.290.2480.0078.980.170.14
PacificWCC0.220.2345.0044.46-0.02-0.03
IdahoBSky0.310.2264.7166.850.090.07
UC RiversideBW0.240.2217.6523.89-0.15-0.11
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.160.2270.5969.610.070.09
Portland St.BSky0.300.2258.8263.210.050.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.2138.8946.03-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.280.2057.8950.810.040.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.210.2021.0539.47-0.12-0.04
Idaho St.BSky0.250.1943.7540.93-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.150.1956.2556.810.020.03
ColoradoP120.300.1860.0053.730.060.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.170.0010.65-0.14-0.14
Northern ArizonaBSky0.250.1611.1115.30-0.19-0.11
BradleyMVC0.310.1665.0057.870.090.02
CaliforniaP120.250.1636.8431.12-0.06-0.06
North DakotaBSky0.230.1629.4134.76-0.10-0.05
DenverSum0.160.1633.3336.47-0.05-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.1552.6350.250.010.00
Illinois St.MVC0.210.1547.3745.87-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.220.1533.3332.96-0.07-0.05
UtahP120.140.1561.1158.950.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.1421.0544.26-0.04-0.02
MontanaBSky0.160.1370.5973.140.070.06
GonzagaWCC0.150.1280.9583.260.090.08
BinghamtonAE0.300.1244.4442.74-0.03-0.02
Arizona St.P120.150.1278.9576.130.090.06
Washington St.P120.080.1250.0042.180.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.070.1255.0049.070.01-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.140.1270.0068.420.060.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.220.1225.0028.02-0.11-0.05
ValparaisoMVC0.070.1250.0051.360.000.00
Texas St.SB0.230.1257.8950.210.040.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1247.0652.510.000.01
RiceCUSA0.070.1211.1117.69-0.05-0.08
TCUB120.140.1273.6865.590.060.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.170.1066.6766.010.060.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.1070.0071.230.030.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.230.1066.6765.360.080.03
Central MichiganMAC0.240.1062.5058.700.060.02
San DiegoWCC0.080.1063.1657.540.020.01
PepperdineWCC0.240.0910.5318.34-0.19-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.160.0944.4446.10-0.02-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.230.0942.1143.50-0.04-0.01
BYUWCC0.160.0980.9576.230.100.05
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0966.6755.930.030.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.0977.7871.650.080.04
UCLAP120.150.0965.0062.040.050.02
CanisiusMAAC0.230.0960.0060.340.050.02
SMUAmer0.220.0970.0070.630.090.04
StanfordP120.150.0955.0050.370.020.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.220.0952.6355.290.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.140.0933.3334.11-0.05-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0961.1151.900.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0989.4785.520.050.06
MissouriSEC0.140.0966.6763.200.050.02
AuburnSEC0.140.0989.4777.030.110.05
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0930.0032.53-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.140.0950.0048.740.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.140.0816.6724.29-0.09-0.04
DavidsonA100.140.0858.8261.440.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.140.0883.3381.410.090.05
Chicago St.WAC0.080.070.003.12-0.08-0.06
SeattleWAC0.000.0757.8954.500.000.01
UMKCWAC0.080.0721.0524.71-0.05-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0745.0045.02-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0629.4133.94-0.03-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0628.5731.27-0.04-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0658.8249.760.01-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.150.0627.7829.11-0.07-0.03
PortlandWCC0.070.0627.7827.30-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.160.0625.0028.25-0.08-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.0629.4139.62-0.06-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.0643.7554.09-0.020.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0622.2228.590.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.070.0673.6869.610.030.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0683.3381.350.000.04
MarylandB100.070.0670.0065.320.030.02
New HampshireAE0.070.0629.4138.15-0.03-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.070.0663.1663.180.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.067.1414.82-0.06-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0672.2272.970.000.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0657.8953.190.010.00
TulaneAmer0.070.0663.1657.900.020.01
WinthropBSth0.070.0646.6758.78-0.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0621.0523.50-0.04-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.140.0652.6347.390.01-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0610.0019.620.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.070.0645.0043.49-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0647.3744.270.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.070.0661.1153.160.020.00
MassachusettsA100.070.0650.0046.780.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0652.6345.860.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.140.0677.7867.900.080.02
RichmondA100.000.0631.5834.350.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0650.0051.650.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0668.4263.980.000.02
USCP120.070.0671.4368.300.030.02
VCUA100.000.0660.0059.690.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.0670.0061.440.000.01
TroySB0.140.0635.2942.76-0.04-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0610.5316.75-0.05-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0612.5025.47-0.05-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0636.8444.120.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0638.8943.430.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.070.0661.1160.790.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0627.7840.97-0.03-0.01
Texas TechB120.070.0678.9571.810.040.02
DelawareCAA0.080.0347.3743.04-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.080.0350.0054.850.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0352.9452.620.010.00
ArmyPat0.090.0361.1160.530.020.01
IonaMAAC0.090.0363.1666.880.020.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0350.0052.440.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0366.6765.620.030.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.0352.9460.270.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0390.4888.940.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0373.6872.360.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0360.0062.030.020.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0327.7831.12-0.03-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0344.4445.98-0.01-0.00
DukeACC0.070.0389.4785.190.060.02
Iowa St.B120.070.0361.1147.260.02-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0345.0047.05-0.01-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0346.6746.98-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.070.0385.0083.180.050.02
NebraskaB100.070.0366.6759.780.020.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0384.2178.170.050.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0368.4258.990.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.0361.1158.750.020.01
BucknellPat0.070.0361.9068.010.020.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0345.0049.27-0.01-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.039.5217.94-0.06-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0347.3750.950.000.00
DePaulBE0.070.0342.1134.32-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.070.0370.0058.100.030.00
FloridaSEC0.070.0373.6871.550.030.01
FordhamA100.000.0331.5829.060.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0378.9572.990.040.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0373.6867.950.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0340.0042.720.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.070.0322.2227.51-0.04-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0377.7869.360.040.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0363.6457.640.020.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0372.2258.940.030.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0380.0075.050.040.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0368.4254.090.000.00
Penn St.B100.070.0361.9055.770.020.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0347.3746.91-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.070.0327.7832.66-0.03-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6768.700.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0372.2268.920.030.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0336.8435.550.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.070.0364.7159.980.020.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0326.3231.52-0.03-0.01