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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Fresno St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:172.2
Current RPI:270
Expected SOS:120
Current SOS:343
Current Record:4-3
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:200
Expected OOC SOS:319



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-744.00.01%
20-850.70.03%
19-961.90.11%
18-1075.00.40%
17-1188.71.60%
16-12103.54.36%
15-13120.78.44%
14-14138.613.15%
13-15157.317.92%
12-16177.618.37%
11-17197.315.98%
10-18218.011.03%
9-19237.75.63%
8-20254.22.18%
7-21272.10.58%
6-22283.80.16%
5-23298.30.03%
4-24306.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fresno St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11UTSA (303.1)CUSAH69-66W100%0.0
11-14Prairie View A&M (307.2)SWACH78-84L0%0.0
11-19Lamar (302.6)SlndH83-64W100%0.0
11-22Cal St. Bakersfield (118.6)WACA71-63L0%0.0
11-25Oregon St. (264.9)P12A58-63W100%0.0
12-3Drake (308.2)MVCA76-78W100%0.0
12-6Marquette (51.7)BEA84-81L0%0.0
12-10Cal Poly (261.7)BWH0-076%8.6
12-17Pacific (174.3)WCCA0-042%-2.4
12-20Oregon (31.0)P12A0-07%-17.8
12-28New Mexico (89.1)MWCA0-025%-8.0
12-31Nevada (46.2)MWCH0-032%-5.5
1-4Wyoming (151.4)MWCH0-057%2.0
1-7San Jose St. (192.3)MWCA0-046%-1.1
1-11Air Force (168.0)MWCA0-038%-3.8
1-14Boise St. (108.9)MWCH0-045%-1.4
1-18Colorado St. (97.3)MWCH0-046%-1.2
1-21Nevada (46.2)MWCA0-016%-11.7
1-28Utah St. (118.1)MWCA0-029%-6.5
2-1Air Force (168.0)MWCH0-058%2.5
2-4San Diego St. (63.7)MWCH0-033%-5.3
2-8Wyoming (151.4)MWCA0-036%-4.2
2-11Colorado St. (97.3)MWCA0-027%-7.5
2-15San Jose St. (192.3)MWCH0-066%5.1
2-18New Mexico (89.1)MWCH0-044%-1.7
2-22San Diego St. (63.7)MWCA0-017%-11.6
2-28Boise St. (108.9)MWCA0-026%-7.7
3-4UNLV (195.9)MWCH0-062%3.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fresno St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fresno St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fresno St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Fresno St.MWC28.2926.3760.6144.916.00-2.68
NevadaMWC0.454.5177.7871.510.251.94
Boise St.MWC0.004.5050.0056.330.000.57
WyomingMWC0.004.4766.6753.750.000.34
San Jose St.MWC0.004.4650.0040.450.00-0.85
Colorado St.MWC0.004.4571.4359.830.000.87
Air ForceMWC0.004.4457.1447.820.00-0.19
New MexicoMWC0.004.4462.5057.620.000.68
San Diego St.MWC0.004.4360.0068.790.001.66
UNLVMWC0.002.8162.5042.940.00-0.40
Utah St.MWC0.002.7742.8649.83-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P128.552.0028.5724.43-3.66-1.02
OregonP120.001.9475.0072.110.000.86
UTSACUSA8.551.9128.5730.97-3.66-0.73
PacificWCC0.001.9142.8645.56-0.00-0.17
Prairie View A&MSWAC8.551.880.0030.88-8.55-0.72
LamarSlnd8.481.8850.0041.930.00-0.30
Cal PolyBW0.451.8242.8641.78-0.06-0.30
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC7.141.7942.8663.51-1.020.48
DrakeMVC7.141.790.0020.96-7.14-1.04
MarquetteBE7.141.7975.0063.013.570.46
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.3175.0069.680.000.12
CaliforniaP120.000.2887.5064.760.000.08
ColoradoP120.000.2475.0062.450.000.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2425.0045.82-0.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.2225.0048.70-0.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.2257.1450.730.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.450.21100.0089.590.450.17
DenverSum0.000.1942.8645.65-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.450.190.0033.71-0.45-0.06
DePaulBE1.110.1971.4337.680.47-0.05
Arizona St.P120.000.1955.5637.870.00-0.05
Idaho St.BSky0.510.1912.5029.77-0.38-0.08
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1825.0043.29-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.1844.4453.29-0.000.01
StanfordP120.000.1866.6758.600.000.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1742.8658.24-0.000.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.450.1657.1457.780.060.03
UC DavisBW0.600.1650.0045.660.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.400.160.0038.78-0.40-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.160.0038.43-0.00-0.04
ArizonaP120.450.1577.7870.290.250.06
WashingtonP120.000.1557.1452.140.000.01
UCLAP120.000.15100.0086.650.000.11
UtahP120.000.1580.0058.220.000.02
IonaMAAC0.600.1557.1464.540.090.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1371.4358.830.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1360.0062.420.000.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1320.0017.37-0.00-0.08
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1333.3352.49-0.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.1362.5067.080.000.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1312.5033.31-0.00-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.000.13100.0092.200.000.11
San DiegoWCC0.000.1337.5031.15-0.00-0.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1333.3332.79-0.00-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.130.0019.08-0.00-0.08
Washington St.P120.000.1342.8629.20-0.00-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1350.0045.130.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1360.0058.900.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1377.7886.650.000.09
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1260.0067.820.000.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1228.5733.56-0.00-0.04
BradleyMVC0.000.1237.5025.74-0.00-0.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.120.0032.29-0.00-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.000.1220.0035.46-0.00-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.120.0023.90-0.00-0.06
USCP120.000.12100.0076.400.000.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1020.0022.88-0.00-0.06
UMKCWAC0.600.1055.5649.660.07-0.00
SMUAmer0.450.1066.6766.650.150.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1042.8650.98-0.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1025.0040.17-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.090.0025.31-0.00-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0942.8650.33-0.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0940.0054.81-0.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.510.0985.7153.770.360.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0957.1449.420.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.090.0031.31-0.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0914.2943.08-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0025.17-0.00-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.000.0942.8633.51-0.00-0.03
ArmyPat0.000.0942.8650.29-0.000.00
Kansas St.B120.450.0988.8956.710.350.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0957.1472.530.000.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.450.0975.0047.520.22-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0955.5647.600.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0720.0022.08-0.00-0.04
SeattleWAC0.000.0716.6738.83-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0725.0040.78-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0750.0053.130.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.070.0017.92-0.00-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0742.8637.05-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0720.0042.14-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0750.0057.950.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0640.0041.72-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0628.5730.43-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0642.8650.82-0.000.00
TroySB0.000.0642.8636.07-0.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.450.0611.1120.27-0.35-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.450.0642.8644.89-0.06-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0687.5061.660.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0625.0042.78-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0671.4368.930.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0666.6761.690.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0670.0050.010.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0614.2935.05-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0022.47-0.00-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0628.5738.92-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0662.5060.090.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.54-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6740.32-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0628.5724.39-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.0625.0026.46-0.00-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6735.90-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.450.0662.5050.630.110.00
Texas St.SB0.450.0650.0044.180.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0637.5035.03-0.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.32-0.00-0.04
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0074.830.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.540.000.03
DaytonA100.000.0671.4373.270.000.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0625.0031.76-0.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0677.7859.940.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0640.0058.88-0.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0644.4436.20-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0650.0066.380.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0084.740.000.04
Virginia TechACC0.000.0685.7162.500.000.01
WisconsinB100.450.0677.7876.550.250.03
XavierBE0.000.0687.5070.880.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0675.0054.480.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0633.3352.03-0.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0685.7177.000.000.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0642.8653.80-0.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0020.72-0.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.450.0333.3355.64-0.150.00
North FloridaASun0.450.0312.5034.49-0.33-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0340.0043.88-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.450.0362.5052.060.110.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0312.5030.51-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0328.5746.79-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0055.44-0.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0362.5054.660.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0375.0071.330.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0344.4451.58-0.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.50-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0320.0060.00-0.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0377.7877.640.000.02
South DakotaSum0.600.0350.0046.820.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0316.6749.78-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0362.5053.550.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0387.5075.730.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3331.35-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0362.5066.500.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0375.0070.570.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0350.0059.840.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0357.1451.740.000.00
BaylorB120.000.03100.0076.070.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0342.8644.90-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0362.5046.490.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.400.0357.1451.810.060.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0337.5048.85-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.450.0375.0075.180.220.01
HowardMEAC0.400.0316.6743.53-0.26-0.00
IUPUISum0.400.0333.3351.57-0.130.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0325.0030.02-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0357.1454.200.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0371.4358.170.000.00
MichiganB100.400.0377.7865.840.220.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.63-0.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.400.0375.0048.980.20-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0357.1450.790.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0022.30-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0350.0042.770.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3340.37-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0044.700.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.450.0350.0037.700.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7175.250.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.400.0355.5646.770.04-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.400.0328.5723.02-0.17-0.02
DukeACC0.000.0390.0080.060.000.02
KansasB120.000.0388.8977.470.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0371.4357.210.000.00
TCUB120.000.03100.0060.950.000.01