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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Fresno St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:87.8
Current RPI:196
Expected SOS:95
Current SOS:192
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:17-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:96
Expected OOC SOS:145



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-416.20.08%
23-520.60.43%
22-625.91.27%
21-733.63.54%
20-842.16.63%
19-953.410.71%
18-1066.215.64%
17-1180.617.66%
16-1297.116.09%
15-13114.912.62%
14-14134.17.92%
13-15154.64.61%
12-16174.81.79%
11-17197.10.73%
10-18212.50.19%
9-19234.00.06%
8-20247.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fresno St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Cal St. Northridge (271.1)BWH89-73W100%0.0
11-17Arkansas (31.4)SECA83-75L0%0.0
11-21Evansville (147.7)MVCN0-066%5.0
11-26Montana St. (223.7)BSkyH0-085%12.5
11-30Weber St. (168.8)BSkyH0-077%8.7
12-2Long Beach St. (152.8)BWA0-057%2.2
12-5Cal St. Bakersfield (178.6)WACH0-084%11.8
12-9Cal Poly (242.5)BWA0-075%7.9
12-13Arkansas Pine Bluff (338.7)SWACH0-098%25.9
12-16Oregon (35.0)P12H0-031%-6.0
12-27Nevada (20.5)MWCH0-037%-4.0
12-30Air Force (209.8)MWCH0-081%10.5
1-3Utah St. (127.2)MWCA0-050%-0.1
1-6Colorado St. (161.3)MWCA0-057%2.1
1-9Boise St. (59.7)MWCH0-054%1.2
1-13New Mexico (141.4)MWCH0-069%6.1
1-17San Diego St. (83.4)MWCA0-035%-4.5
1-20Air Force (209.8)MWCA0-065%4.5
1-23UNLV (110.1)MWCH0-059%2.8
1-27Utah St. (127.2)MWCH0-069%5.9
1-31Nevada (20.5)MWCA0-020%-10.0
2-3Wyoming (121.3)MWCA0-048%-0.7
2-6San Diego St. (83.4)MWCH0-055%1.5
2-14San Jose St. (274.9)MWCA0-079%9.5
2-17Colorado St. (161.3)MWCH0-075%8.1
2-21UNLV (110.1)MWCA0-039%-3.2
2-24Wyoming (121.3)MWCH0-067%5.3
3-3New Mexico (141.4)MWCA0-050%0.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fresno St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fresno St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fresno St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Fresno St.MWC35.4226.3750.0058.700.004.59
Colorado St.MWC0.004.5466.6742.760.00-0.66
Utah St.MWC0.004.5050.0050.860.000.08
New MexicoMWC0.004.4750.0051.340.000.12
Air ForceMWC0.004.46100.0046.090.00-0.35
NevadaMWC0.004.45100.0079.400.002.61
UNLVMWC0.004.44100.0065.720.001.40
WyomingMWC0.004.43100.0058.500.000.75
San Diego St.MWC0.004.4250.0063.280.001.18
Boise St.MWC0.002.83100.0067.240.000.98
San Jose St.MWC0.002.800.0020.990.00-1.63
Long Beach St.BW0.001.9850.0051.370.000.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW25.001.920.0042.40-25.00-0.29
Cal PolyBW0.001.9233.3338.550.00-0.44
Weber St.BSky0.001.9166.6767.730.000.68
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.001.880.0024.630.00-0.96
ArkansasSEC25.001.88100.0070.1525.000.76
Montana St.BSky0.001.8833.3351.670.000.06
OregonP120.001.88100.0076.460.000.99
EvansvilleMVC0.001.85100.0052.570.000.09
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.001.820.0043.820.00-0.22
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.330.0033.930.00-0.10
UC IrvineBW0.000.3133.3353.300.000.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.2933.3327.100.00-0.13
HawaiiBW0.000.28100.0053.460.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.270.0033.520.00-0.09
UC RiversideBW0.000.2633.3331.840.00-0.10
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.2650.0069.320.000.10
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.2633.3338.880.00-0.06
UC DavisBW0.000.2566.6757.400.000.04
ArizonaP120.000.25100.0083.700.000.17
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.2333.3350.220.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.22100.0048.130.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.2233.3351.560.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.22100.0052.860.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.210.0033.850.00-0.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.200.0035.130.00-0.06
Idaho St.BSky0.000.200.0028.170.00-0.09
DenverSum0.000.190.0038.100.00-0.05
Oregon St.P120.000.1966.6742.260.00-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.170.0018.970.00-0.11
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.170.0024.440.00-0.09
CaliforniaP120.000.1766.6740.170.00-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.1666.6746.830.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.1650.0060.380.000.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1533.3352.000.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.15100.0059.250.000.03
Texas St.SB0.000.1533.3346.090.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.150.0050.360.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.150.0042.340.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.1375.0048.770.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.1350.0060.130.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.13100.0062.760.000.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.13100.0086.180.000.09
DrakeMVC0.000.1350.0035.740.00-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1333.3343.810.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.130.0035.760.00-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1233.3346.330.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1266.6763.230.000.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1266.6763.220.000.03
ValparaisoMVC0.000.12100.0059.760.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.1233.3336.410.00-0.03
TCUB120.000.12100.0061.150.000.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1150.0060.430.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.11100.0075.130.000.05
PepperdineWCC0.000.100.0031.910.00-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.10100.0052.950.000.01
UCLAP120.000.10100.0064.910.000.03
StanfordP120.000.1075.0049.860.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.10100.0057.270.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0975.0058.930.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.09100.0076.260.000.05
BYUWCC0.000.0966.6767.320.000.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0966.6757.890.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.090.0051.690.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.090.0023.260.00-0.05
UtahP120.000.09100.0067.160.000.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0966.6756.400.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.090.0026.180.00-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.007.670.00-0.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.07100.0064.470.000.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0733.3350.150.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.070.0026.150.00-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0750.0035.330.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0733.3341.010.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.070.0023.170.00-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0650.0034.730.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.060.0036.490.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0036.830.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.0650.0053.620.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.0625.0038.080.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0666.6748.040.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0038.990.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.060.0029.710.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0666.6761.500.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0666.6750.670.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.06100.0046.080.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0039.640.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.06100.0071.010.000.03
USCP120.000.06100.0073.190.000.03
WashingtonP120.000.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.000.06100.0041.780.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.06100.0053.790.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0018.400.00-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.06100.0068.200.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0059.240.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.060.0048.110.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0650.0049.480.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0022.920.00-0.03
TulaneAmer0.000.06100.0054.140.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.060.0055.380.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.060.0027.250.00-0.03
TroySB0.000.0633.3346.410.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0022.610.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0037.120.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.06100.0070.080.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.770.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.060.0044.500.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0650.0046.150.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0650.0073.230.000.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0044.630.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.06100.0062.630.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0450.0048.680.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.04100.0065.580.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0035.450.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6768.790.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0325.0059.770.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.030.0031.810.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.030.0051.010.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.03100.0071.560.000.01
George MasonA106.250.0375.0048.933.12-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0333.3335.150.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0333.3342.010.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0029.880.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.030.0048.610.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0083.580.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0053.280.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.03100.0063.590.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0077.820.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.03100.0060.010.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0049.250.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0088.360.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0366.6767.630.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0366.6771.200.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0061.320.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3345.540.00-0.00
BucknellPat4.170.030.0061.46-4.170.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0035.610.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0056.360.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0022.840.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.03100.0080.230.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.03100.0053.240.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0366.6753.670.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0375.0071.830.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.03100.0071.700.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0051.080.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.03100.0060.070.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0059.540.000.01
SamfordSC4.170.0333.3347.97-1.39-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.03100.0048.350.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0366.6749.990.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0082.350.000.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0325.0050.070.000.00