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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


Fresno St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:115.3
Current RPI:114
Expected SOS:144
Current SOS:149
Current Record:14-8
Expected Record:18-11
Current Conf Record:7-4
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:138
Expected OOC SOS:211



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-869.80.93%
20-980.47.44%
19-1094.221.02%
18-11111.132.16%
17-12130.224.97%
16-13149.410.90%
15-14167.22.38%
14-15185.20.19%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fresno St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Pepperdine (109.7)WCCH69-66W100%0.0
11-16Lamar (335.9)SlndH80-72W100%0.0
11-19San Francisco (230.8)WCCH78-71W100%0.0
11-22Rice (297.8)CUSAA65-82W100%0.0
11-27Delaware St. (349.0)MEACH80-59W100%0.0
11-30Oregon (6.4)P12A78-73L0%0.0
12-5Cal Poly (220.9)BWA77-65L0%0.0
12-9Arizona (25.7)P12A85-72L0%0.0
12-12Pacific (253.6)WCCH71-52W100%0.0
12-16Cal St. Bakersfield (144.0)WACH76-68W100%0.0
12-20Evansville (89.8)MVCH77-85L0%0.0
12-30UNLV (121.0)MWCA66-69W100%0.0
1-2New Mexico (104.5)MWCH62-77L0%0.0
1-6Nevada (130.6)MWCH85-63W100%0.0
1-9Boise St. (98.5)MWCA81-70L0%0.0
1-16San Jose St. (292.7)MWCH81-74W100%0.0
1-19San Diego St. (52.7)MWCA73-67L0%0.0
1-23Air Force (237.5)MWCA55-56W100%0.0
1-26Wyoming (179.2)MWCH71-60W100%0.0
2-3San Jose St. (292.7)MWCA65-53L0%0.0
2-6UNLV (121.0)MWCH111-104W100%0.0
2-10San Diego St. (52.7)MWCH58-57W100%0.0
2-13Nevada (130.6)MWCA0-041%-2.5
2-17Wyoming (179.2)MWCA0-049%-0.4
2-20Utah St. (153.2)MWCH0-069%5.3
2-24Air Force (237.5)MWCH0-089%13.3
2-27New Mexico (104.5)MWCA0-026%-7.0
3-2Colorado St. (170.5)MWCH0-067%4.9
3-5Utah St. (153.2)MWCA0-045%-1.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fresno St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fresno St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fresno St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Fresno St.MWC26.4226.3662.7961.826.766.23
UNLVMWC5.204.3757.1459.160.740.80
New MexicoMWC2.934.3656.5258.890.380.78
WyomingMWC2.944.3345.4543.78-0.27-0.54
Air ForceMWC2.894.3245.4540.19-0.26-0.85
NevadaMWC2.824.3260.0057.340.560.63
San Diego St.MWC4.954.2971.4371.582.121.85
Utah St.MWC0.754.2947.6249.76-0.04-0.02
San Jose St.MWC4.994.2821.0520.68-2.89-2.51
Boise St.MWC2.922.7759.0959.020.530.50
Colorado St.MWC0.762.6954.5553.240.070.17
PacificWCC2.471.9425.0027.03-1.23-0.89
San FranciscoWCC2.481.9154.5550.970.230.04
ArizonaP122.571.9079.1778.031.501.07
PepperdineWCC2.381.8560.8763.160.520.49
RiceCUSA2.431.8428.5729.16-1.04-0.77
OregonP122.471.8478.2676.431.390.97
Delaware St.MEAC2.381.799.5212.69-1.93-1.33
Cal PolyBW2.371.7825.0031.57-1.19-0.66
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC2.321.7870.0070.360.930.73
LamarSlnd2.381.7831.5830.33-0.88-0.70
EvansvilleMVC2.271.7270.8372.150.950.76
Santa ClaraWCC0.450.3733.3332.04-0.15-0.13
San DiegoWCC0.460.3130.4328.20-0.18-0.14
BYUWCC0.350.3168.0070.260.130.13
Montana St.BSky0.370.3143.4844.81-0.05-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.250.3065.2268.610.080.11
UC RiversideBW0.420.2845.8341.64-0.03-0.05
CaliforniaP120.340.2666.6764.780.110.08
Saint Mary'sWCC0.360.2581.8281.780.230.16
Loyola MarymountWCC0.250.2541.6741.18-0.04-0.04
PortlandWCC0.300.2538.4638.04-0.07-0.06
UC IrvineBW0.250.2569.5770.020.100.10
Long Beach St.BW0.350.2447.8351.93-0.020.01
UCLAP120.340.2454.1752.980.030.01
GonzagaWCC0.290.2279.1777.510.170.12
USCP120.190.2075.0071.140.100.08
Wichita St.MVC0.240.1873.9176.700.120.10
Arizona St.P120.250.1856.0053.630.030.01
Oregon St.P120.200.1863.6458.770.050.03
ColoradoP120.140.1770.8365.570.060.05
UtahP120.250.1770.8368.530.100.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.110.1614.2915.47-0.08-0.11
Cal St. FullertonBW0.160.1633.3330.63-0.05-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.200.1683.3382.090.140.10
MontanaBSky0.250.1660.0062.700.050.04
UC DavisBW0.150.1538.1035.34-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.150.1520.8323.28-0.09-0.08
Nicholls St.Slnd0.200.1518.1821.06-0.13-0.09
Northern IowaMVC0.090.1456.0055.450.010.02
Washington St.P120.140.1434.7831.64-0.04-0.05
IdahoBSky0.220.1356.5255.330.030.01
SeattleWAC0.160.1345.4543.98-0.01-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.1333.3334.95-0.02-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.150.1331.8230.08-0.05-0.05
HawaiiBW0.160.1385.0083.450.110.08
Missouri St.MVC0.090.1237.5037.41-0.02-0.03
DenverSum0.100.1252.0049.300.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.190.1256.0054.080.020.01
Indiana St.MVC0.140.1250.0049.490.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.1273.0872.610.040.05
BradleyMVC0.140.1212.0011.95-0.11-0.09
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.1145.8343.78-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.090.1147.6244.07-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.1047.6248.05-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.1035.0034.87-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.1050.0049.890.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.110.1055.5652.480.010.00
Portland St.BSky0.110.0930.0035.92-0.04-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.0945.4551.69-0.010.00
South DakotaSum0.150.0944.0043.56-0.02-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.099.5212.09-0.12-0.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0914.2920.63-0.04-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.100.0950.0051.150.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0958.3363.160.010.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0920.0022.24-0.06-0.05
WashingtonP120.090.0862.5060.140.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.110.074.357.71-0.10-0.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0722.2231.13-0.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0745.0049.16-0.01-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0772.2275.710.030.03
UMKCWAC0.110.0728.5732.73-0.05-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.0776.1972.410.060.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.0654.5555.550.010.01
DukeACC0.000.0675.0071.810.000.03
MarquetteBE0.110.0664.0057.890.030.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0660.8759.830.000.01
ToledoMAC0.110.0660.8762.070.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0666.6769.760.000.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.0619.0525.89-0.07-0.03
UTSACUSA0.110.0613.0412.96-0.08-0.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0657.1457.670.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.0617.6526.60-0.07-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.090.0647.8350.90-0.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.0686.3684.240.070.04
ArmyPat0.050.0654.1754.290.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0637.5042.32-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.100.0641.6739.50-0.02-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0659.0961.290.000.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0670.8367.980.020.02
IndianaB100.100.0680.0075.690.060.03
KansasB120.100.0682.6179.210.060.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0672.7370.510.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0629.1733.75-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0658.3358.580.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.100.0631.8232.47-0.04-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0660.0055.570.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.069.0917.13-0.08-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0626.9228.60-0.02-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.0652.1754.140.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0661.9065.340.010.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0630.0031.76-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.100.0614.2914.92-0.07-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0665.2264.330.020.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0630.4329.49-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0654.1754.210.000.01
West VirginiaB120.100.0679.1778.100.060.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0643.4850.67-0.010.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.0638.1037.68-0.02-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.090.0672.0069.130.040.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0639.1335.44-0.01-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0641.6742.39-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0680.0077.900.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0645.4554.18-0.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0323.8129.52-0.03-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0330.0031.18-0.02-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0356.5257.690.010.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0334.7836.54-0.02-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0326.3232.42-0.03-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0340.0045.19-0.01-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0314.2924.87-0.04-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0352.0048.910.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0340.0042.85-0.01-0.00
IPFWSum0.050.0370.8368.650.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0375.0075.350.030.02
UMBCAE0.050.0323.0825.89-0.03-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0360.8757.170.010.00
DuquesneA100.050.0360.8756.270.010.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.039.5210.67-0.04-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0360.0062.260.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.13-0.02-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0325.0024.91-0.03-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0339.1342.98-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0325.0025.09-0.03-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0326.0927.89-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0336.3638.95-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0358.3356.290.000.00
MichiganB100.050.0370.8366.750.020.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0380.0081.550.030.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0368.1867.730.020.01
NebraskaB100.050.0352.0050.770.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0329.1733.08-0.02-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0325.0033.24-0.03-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0327.2726.46-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0365.3865.500.000.01
PennIvy0.050.0336.8437.30-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0336.3636.29-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0345.8339.36-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0365.2262.360.020.01
UABCUSA0.050.0383.3379.820.030.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0321.7422.42-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0368.1871.340.020.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0345.4546.07-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0360.8755.980.010.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0336.8442.87-0.01-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0328.5733.29-0.02-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0350.0052.940.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0340.9138.83-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0373.9168.450.020.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0368.0066.640.020.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0350.0054.220.000.00
NavyPat0.050.0364.0064.470.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0313.0415.26-0.03-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0382.6183.030.030.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0333.3330.27-0.02-0.01