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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Fresno St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:117.0
Current RPI:117
Expected SOS:94
Current SOS:94
Current Record:15-16
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:134
Expected OOC SOS:62



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-16117.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fresno St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8UC Irvine (111.0)BWA97-98W100%0.0
11-12Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCA75-54L0%0.0
11-16Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWH80-64W100%0.0
11-20Cal Poly (208.0)BWH63-46W100%0.0
11-23Pacific (133.0)WCCA86-77L0%0.0
11-29Drake (174.0)MVCH74-84L0%0.0
11-30Cal St. Bakersfield (279.0)WACH96-86W100%0.0
12-1Northern Arizona (247.0)BSkyH71-67W100%0.0
12-7Utah (80.0)P12A90-77L0%0.0
12-14California (63.0)P12A67-56L0%0.0
12-21Florida (1.0)SECN66-49L0%0.0
1-1UNLV (108.0)MWCH62-75L0%0.0
1-4Boise St. (82.0)MWCA86-79L0%0.0
1-8Air Force (251.0)MWCH71-65W100%0.0
1-11Colorado St. (182.0)MWCA76-57L0%0.0
1-15San Diego St. (15.0)MWCA68-60L0%0.0
1-18New Mexico (12.0)MWCH78-89L0%0.0
1-22Nevada (137.0)MWCH86-96L0%0.0
1-25UNLV (108.0)MWCA75-73L0%0.0
1-29Wyoming (135.0)MWCH67-62W100%0.0
2-5Air Force (251.0)MWCA51-68W100%0.0
2-8San Jose St. (278.0)MWCH82-56W100%0.0
2-12Nevada (137.0)MWCA67-75W100%0.0
2-15Colorado St. (182.0)MWCH75-66W100%0.0
2-18Wyoming (135.0)MWCA72-66L0%0.0
2-22Utah St. (116.0)MWCA76-79W100%0.0
2-26Boise St. (82.0)MWCH76-56W100%0.0
3-1San Diego St. (15.0)MWCH67-82L0%0.0
3-8San Jose St. (278.0)MWCA56-69W100%0.0
3-12Air Force (251.0)MWCN61-59W100%0.0
3-13New Mexico (12.0)MWCN93-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fresno St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fresno St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fresno St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Fresno St.MWC26.4026.4048.2048.20-0.95-0.95
Air ForceMWC5.645.6440.0040.00-1.13-1.13
Boise St.MWC4.254.2560.0060.000.850.85
NevadaMWC4.234.2346.6746.67-0.28-0.28
New MexicoMWC4.204.2080.6580.652.572.57
San Diego St.MWC4.194.1986.2186.213.043.04
UNLVMWC4.184.1858.0658.060.670.67
WyomingMWC4.124.1253.5753.570.290.29
San Jose St.MWC4.124.1218.5218.52-2.59-2.59
Colorado St.MWC4.104.1046.4346.43-0.29-0.29
Utah St.MWC2.662.6656.6756.670.350.35
Cal PolyBW1.861.8637.9337.93-0.45-0.45
UC IrvineBW1.801.8067.7467.740.640.64
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.741.7446.8846.88-0.11-0.11
PacificWCC1.741.7446.4346.43-0.12-0.12
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.721.7240.0040.00-0.34-0.34
CaliforniaP121.721.7258.0658.060.280.28
UtahP121.691.6962.0762.070.410.41
Northern ArizonaBSky1.671.6746.6746.67-0.11-0.11
DrakeMVC1.661.6644.8344.83-0.17-0.17
PittsburghACC1.641.6472.7372.730.750.75
FloridaSEC1.611.6193.9493.941.421.42
UC DavisBW0.370.3724.1424.14-0.19-0.19
UC RiversideBW0.320.3227.5927.59-0.14-0.14
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.310.3167.8667.860.110.11
ColoradoP120.300.3067.6567.650.110.11
ArizonaP120.280.2888.2488.240.220.22
Cal St. FullertonBW0.260.2635.4835.48-0.07-0.07
New Mexico St.WAC0.260.2673.5373.530.120.12
HawaiiBW0.250.2562.0762.070.060.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.240.2438.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Southern UtahBSky0.230.233.573.57-0.21-0.21
Long Beach St.BW0.230.2343.3343.33-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.220.2233.3333.33-0.07-0.07
WashingtonP120.210.2153.1253.120.010.01
USCP120.210.2132.2632.26-0.07-0.07
Weber St.BSky0.190.1960.7160.710.040.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.190.1955.1755.170.020.02
Arizona St.P120.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
DenverSum0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
Grand CanyonWAC0.150.1546.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.150.1548.1548.15-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Idaho St.BSky0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Washington St.P120.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
StanfordP120.130.1363.6463.640.030.03
SeattleWAC0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
KentuckySEC0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
PortlandWCC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
BYUWCC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
North DakotaBSky0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1041.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
VMIBSth0.090.0955.5655.560.010.01
BradleyMVC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UICHorz0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
LamarSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
CreightonBE0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
TennesseeSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
HoustonAmer0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
TroySB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0293.1093.100.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
DukeACC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00