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Through games of Jan 30, 2015.


Fresno St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:219.7
Current RPI:221
Expected SOS:137
Current SOS:208
Current Record:8-11
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:5-3
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-4
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:311
Expected OOC SOS:296



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13120.00.01%
15-14143.70.40%
14-15165.02.21%
13-16184.88.05%
12-17203.121.41%
11-18220.432.79%
10-19237.126.17%
9-20253.98.73%
8-21267.00.22%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fresno St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Pepperdine (143.4)WCCA89-74L0%0.0
11-20Northern Arizona (212.9)BSkyA73-52L0%0.0
11-24Evansville (78.4)MVCN58-52L0%0.0
11-25East Carolina (258.0)AmerN52-58L0%0.0
11-26Marist (328.9)MAACN68-64L0%0.0
11-30California (137.8)P12H57-64L0%0.0
12-3UC Irvine (110.3)BWH72-63W100%0.0
12-6Cal St. Bakersfield (308.2)WACA61-63W100%0.0
12-10Texas Tech (192.5)B12A73-56L0%0.0
12-13Cal Poly (162.9)BWH63-57W100%0.0
12-20Pacific (225.6)WCCA71-68L0%0.0
12-31New Mexico (91.4)MWCA76-64L0%0.0
1-3San Diego St. (28.8)MWCH59-57W100%0.0
1-7Utah St. (151.6)MWCH61-52W100%0.0
1-10Nevada (291.8)MWCA66-69W100%0.0
1-14San Jose St. (335.6)MWCA62-73W100%0.0
1-17Wyoming (82.4)MWCH65-70L0%0.0
1-24Nevada (291.8)MWCH66-62W100%0.0
1-27San Diego St. (28.8)MWCA58-47L0%0.0
1-31Colorado St. (33.1)MWCA0-07%-15.8
2-4San Jose St. (335.6)MWCH0-096%19.2
2-10UNLV (97.8)MWCA0-017%-10.5
2-14Boise St. (61.0)MWCH0-024%-7.9
2-18Colorado St. (33.1)MWCH0-021%-9.0
2-21Utah St. (151.6)MWCA0-020%-9.1
2-25Wyoming (82.4)MWCA0-014%-12.0
2-28New Mexico (91.4)MWCH0-033%-4.7
3-4Air Force (258.9)MWCH0-060%2.8
3-7Boise St. (61.0)MWCA0-09%-14.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fresno St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fresno St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fresno St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Fresno St.MWC26.6026.3443.3737.77-3.53-6.44
NevadaMWC5.544.3726.6727.30-2.59-1.98
Colorado St.MWC0.564.3585.0081.250.392.72
WyomingMWC3.034.3377.7872.361.691.94
Utah St.MWC3.064.3161.1157.160.680.62
San Diego St.MWC5.474.3177.7877.523.042.37
San Jose St.MWC2.844.310.001.46-2.84-4.18
New MexicoMWC2.904.2863.1661.640.761.00
Boise St.MWC0.284.2868.4268.330.101.57
Air ForceMWC0.762.7038.8937.06-0.17-0.70
UNLVMWC0.722.6855.0054.320.070.23
PacificWCC2.991.9433.3330.68-1.00-0.75
CaliforniaP123.001.9155.0046.150.30-0.15
Cal PolyBW2.921.8850.0051.280.000.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC2.901.8727.7837.77-1.29-0.46
PepperdineWCC2.841.8557.8956.190.450.23
UC IrvineBW2.781.8258.8260.730.490.39
Texas TechB122.631.7650.0038.080.00-0.42
East CarolinaAmer2.631.7229.4129.10-1.08-0.72
EvansvilleMVC2.631.7273.6868.721.250.65
MaristMAAC2.631.7210.0013.93-2.11-1.24
Northern ArizonaBSky2.631.7238.8945.54-0.58-0.15
Cal St. FullertonBW0.510.3431.5831.12-0.19-0.13
New Mexico St.WAC0.340.3250.0061.990.000.08
UC DavisBW0.140.2876.4768.620.080.10
Santa ClaraWCC0.350.2845.0040.47-0.04-0.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.350.2880.0074.260.210.13
Long Beach St.BW0.440.2545.0052.61-0.040.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.280.2423.8125.01-0.15-0.12
BYUWCC0.340.2466.6767.930.110.09
San DiegoWCC0.270.2447.6246.49-0.01-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.340.2415.7922.84-0.23-0.13
HawaiiBW0.360.2265.0059.030.110.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.350.2223.8126.39-0.18-0.10
UC RiversideBW0.350.2238.8936.60-0.08-0.06
PortlandWCC0.210.2250.0049.060.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.340.2170.0063.140.130.05
San FranciscoWCC0.280.1938.1041.77-0.07-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.1944.4452.05-0.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.290.1838.8943.58-0.07-0.02
ColoradoP120.070.1855.0052.300.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.1747.0652.46-0.000.01
MontanaBSky0.130.1752.9455.900.010.02
ArizonaP120.270.1790.9188.550.220.13
USCP120.200.1745.0039.01-0.02-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.210.1695.2494.650.190.14
Montana St.BSky0.210.1515.7919.24-0.14-0.09
HoustonAmer0.140.1540.0037.05-0.03-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.190.1557.8958.390.030.02
Southern UtahBSky0.070.1523.5328.20-0.04-0.06
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1431.5834.29-0.05-0.05
SeattleWAC0.070.1247.0649.37-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.1238.8939.75-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.1250.0052.570.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.070.1260.0060.200.010.02
Washington St.P120.200.1245.0036.07-0.02-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.200.1275.0073.790.100.06
DenverSum0.070.1242.8646.32-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.130.1250.0051.090.000.00
UtahP120.130.1178.9580.140.080.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.150.0936.8439.63-0.04-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.140.0961.1156.540.030.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.0928.5736.68-0.06-0.02
BradleyMVC0.140.0928.5727.78-0.06-0.04
Green BayHorz0.210.0978.9577.960.120.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.0966.6768.850.050.03
MercerSC0.070.0950.0052.630.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.140.0941.1841.54-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.090.004.66-0.14-0.08
SMUAmer0.140.0980.0077.800.090.05
Portland St.BSky0.140.0947.0644.94-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.140.0966.6762.680.050.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0937.5043.27-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.140.0931.5844.68-0.05-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0966.6763.890.000.02
WisconsinB100.060.0990.0087.310.050.07
Boston CollegeACC0.130.0947.3742.60-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.060.0885.0077.480.040.05
StanfordP120.060.0875.0071.470.030.04
TexasB120.130.0870.0067.330.050.03
DelawareCAA0.150.0620.0022.25-0.09-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.070.065.2610.51-0.06-0.05
ClemsonACC0.150.0660.0052.350.030.00
MarshallCUSA0.150.0621.0525.57-0.09-0.03
Seton HallBE0.150.0670.0063.270.060.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.070.0627.7828.15-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.070.0630.0036.10-0.03-0.02
ArmyPat0.060.0668.4263.930.020.02
IUPUISum0.130.0636.3638.71-0.04-0.01
South DakotaSum0.070.0642.8644.91-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0635.2932.56-0.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0657.8959.140.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0620.0021.28-0.00-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.130.0645.0043.94-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0665.0061.650.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0642.1134.91-0.01-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0659.0956.200.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0690.4885.060.050.04
South FloridaAmer0.070.0630.0031.92-0.03-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0638.1036.83-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.070.0616.6722.55-0.05-0.03
TulsaAmer0.070.0678.9573.600.040.03
UCFAmer0.000.0642.1139.30-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0690.0088.060.050.05
OregonP120.070.0666.6761.400.020.01
Ball St.MAC0.130.0635.2935.77-0.04-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0660.0063.500.010.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.060.003.40-0.07-0.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0652.9452.600.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.130.0628.5728.70-0.05-0.02
George MasonA100.070.0633.3332.70-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0665.0068.130.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0671.4374.940.000.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0652.9453.200.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0650.0047.950.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0654.5554.980.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0615.0019.98-0.04-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.0623.5330.63-0.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.130.0660.0052.020.030.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.130.0655.0055.900.010.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0663.6464.900.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0645.4547.86-0.01-0.00
SienaMAAC0.060.0640.0037.22-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0673.6865.240.030.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0665.0068.720.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0680.0079.220.040.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0670.5973.360.030.03
BaylorB120.000.0673.6869.390.000.02
Iowa St.B120.060.0678.9569.330.040.02
Kansas St.B120.060.0657.1446.790.01-0.00
OklahomaB120.060.0665.0066.320.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0668.4260.870.020.01
TCUB120.060.0670.0059.730.030.01
UCLAP120.060.0657.1455.760.010.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0685.0075.810.040.03
IPFWSum0.080.0338.8941.66-0.02-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.080.0363.6464.410.020.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.006.57-0.00-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0333.3331.28-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0329.4131.71-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0335.2930.49-0.02-0.01
High PointBSth0.070.0373.6870.420.030.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0341.1844.43-0.01-0.00
IowaB100.070.0365.0063.420.020.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0320.0027.25-0.04-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0315.0023.63-0.05-0.02
RichmondA100.070.0355.0056.890.010.00
South AlabamaSB0.070.0326.3229.17-0.03-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0357.8957.960.010.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0364.2967.400.020.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0365.0063.630.020.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0313.6414.75-0.05-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0310.5319.78-0.05-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0340.0040.94-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0359.0958.320.010.00
Miami OHMAC0.070.0331.5830.78-0.02-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.070.0380.0081.590.040.02
North CarolinaACC0.070.0380.9576.580.050.02
OhioMAC0.070.0338.8935.48-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.070.0360.0052.490.010.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0341.1847.60-0.01-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0315.7921.14-0.05-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0357.8956.380.010.00
Wright St.Horz0.070.0345.0046.68-0.01-0.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0365.0067.680.000.01
BucknellPat0.060.0352.3852.480.000.00
ElonCAA0.060.0345.0042.61-0.01-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0363.1667.490.020.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0340.0038.69-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0355.0054.130.010.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0365.0063.020.020.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0338.1045.41-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0357.1462.480.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0372.2277.840.030.02
PennIvy0.060.0337.5037.02-0.02-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0342.1139.33-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0370.5975.650.000.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0360.0058.610.010.00
UTSACUSA0.070.0347.0645.69-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.060.0330.0034.93-0.03-0.01
XavierBE0.070.0366.6765.800.020.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0316.6721.98-0.04-0.02
AuburnSEC0.060.0347.3738.40-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0323.8125.53-0.03-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.060.0340.0035.69-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.060.0380.0070.880.040.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0335.2933.06-0.02-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0340.0048.23-0.01-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0365.0059.750.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0321.0533.18-0.04-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0328.5732.24-0.03-0.01
SyracuseACC0.060.0366.6758.800.020.00