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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Fresno St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:76.0
Current RPI:76
Expected SOS:102
Current SOS:102
Current Record:18-12
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:159
Expected OOC SOS:292



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1276.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fresno St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11UTSA (264.0)CUSAH69-66W100%0.0
11-14Prairie View A&M (307.0)SWACH78-84L0%0.0
11-19Lamar (232.0)SlndH83-64W100%0.0
11-22Cal St. Bakersfield (75.0)WACA71-63L0%0.0
11-25Oregon St. (280.0)P12A58-63W100%0.0
12-3Drake (314.0)MVCA76-78W100%0.0
12-6Marquette (60.0)BEA84-81L0%0.0
12-10Cal Poly (297.0)BWH73-59W100%0.0
12-17Pacific (223.0)WCCA68-70W100%0.0
12-20Oregon (9.0)P12A75-63L0%0.0
12-28New Mexico (86.0)MWCA78-73L0%0.0
12-31Nevada (29.0)MWCH77-76W100%0.0
1-4Wyoming (152.0)MWCH85-70W100%0.0
1-7San Jose St. (191.0)MWCA69-62L0%0.0
1-11Air Force (250.0)MWCA81-72L0%0.0
1-14Boise St. (72.0)MWCH89-80W100%0.0
1-18Colorado St. (66.0)MWCH78-57W100%0.0
1-21Nevada (29.0)MWCA76-81W100%0.0
1-28Utah St. (181.0)MWCA78-65L0%0.0
2-1Air Force (250.0)MWCH73-64W100%0.0
2-4San Diego St. (98.0)MWCH67-70L0%0.0
2-8Wyoming (152.0)MWCA102-100L0%0.0
2-11Colorado St. (66.0)MWCA78-62L0%0.0
2-15San Jose St. (191.0)MWCH77-59W100%0.0
2-18New Mexico (86.0)MWCH71-61W100%0.0
2-22San Diego St. (98.0)MWCA55-63W100%0.0
2-28Boise St. (72.0)MWCA67-74W100%0.0
3-4UNLV (242.0)MWCH72-59W100%0.0
3-9New Mexico (86.0)MWCN65-60W100%0.0
3-10Nevada (29.0)MWCN83-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fresno St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fresno St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fresno St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Fresno St.MWC26.4526.4563.4963.497.147.14
NevadaMWC5.965.9687.1087.104.424.42
New MexicoMWC5.805.8057.1457.140.830.83
Colorado St.MWC4.364.3666.6766.671.451.45
San Diego St.MWC4.334.3356.6756.670.580.58
Boise St.MWC4.294.2966.6766.671.431.43
Air ForceMWC4.284.2831.0331.03-1.62-1.62
WyomingMWC4.254.2553.5753.570.300.30
San Jose St.MWC4.214.2142.3142.31-0.65-0.65
Utah St.MWC2.762.7641.3841.38-0.48-0.48
UNLVMWC2.712.7135.4835.48-0.79-0.79
Oregon St.P121.871.8713.3313.33-1.37-1.37
OregonP121.801.8084.3884.381.241.24
PacificWCC1.801.8032.2632.26-0.64-0.64
UTSACUSA1.781.7840.0040.00-0.36-0.36
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.751.7533.3333.33-0.58-0.58
LamarSlnd1.751.7553.5753.570.120.12
Cal PolyBW1.691.6932.1432.14-0.60-0.60
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.671.6766.6766.670.560.56
DrakeMVC1.671.6721.4321.43-0.95-0.95
MarquetteBE1.671.6760.0060.000.330.33
New Mexico St.WAC0.360.3683.3383.330.240.24
CaliforniaP120.290.2963.6463.640.080.08
Loyola MarymountWCC0.240.2448.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.210.2187.5087.500.160.16
ColoradoP120.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
MontanaBSky0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.200.2035.7135.71-0.06-0.06
Idaho St.BSky0.190.1913.3313.33-0.14-0.14
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.190.1918.5218.52-0.12-0.12
ArizonaP120.190.1988.2488.240.140.14
UC IrvineBW0.180.1857.5857.580.030.03
Arizona St.P120.180.1845.4545.45-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.180.1864.7164.710.050.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
UC DavisBW0.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
DePaulBE0.170.1728.1228.12-0.07-0.07
Houston BaptistSlnd0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
USCP120.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
BradleyMVC0.160.1637.5037.50-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.1468.9768.970.050.05
PortlandWCC0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Illinois St.MVC0.140.1481.2581.250.090.09
Long Beach St.BW0.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
UTEPCUSA0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
UtahP120.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
UCLAP120.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
GonzagaWCC0.130.1396.9796.970.120.12
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.1160.7160.710.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
BYUWCC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.110.1187.8887.880.080.08
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.1136.0036.00-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1124.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
SMUAmer0.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0912.9012.90-0.06-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.080.0822.2222.22-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
DaytonA100.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Seton HallBE0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
TulsaAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
TowsonCAA0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
IdahoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0637.0437.04-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
HawaiiBW0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0619.2319.23-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0637.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
South DakotaSum0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
BaylorB120.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01