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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Fresno St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:182.0
Current RPI:182
Expected SOS:125
Current SOS:125
Current Record:13-17
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-3
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:301
Expected OOC SOS:270



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17182.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fresno St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Pepperdine (134.0)WCCA89-74L0%0.0
11-20Northern Arizona (166.0)BSkyA73-52L0%0.0
11-24Evansville (118.0)MVCN58-52L0%0.0
11-25East Carolina (219.0)AmerN52-58L0%0.0
11-26Marist (317.0)MAACN68-64L0%0.0
11-30California (95.0)P12H57-64L0%0.0
12-3UC Irvine (88.0)BWH72-63W100%0.0
12-6Cal St. Bakersfield (301.0)WACA61-63W100%0.0
12-10Texas Tech (183.0)B12A73-56L0%0.0
12-13Cal Poly (199.0)BWH63-57W100%0.0
12-20Pacific (241.0)WCCA71-68L0%0.0
12-31New Mexico (172.0)MWCA76-64L0%0.0
1-3San Diego St. (26.0)MWCH59-57W100%0.0
1-7Utah St. (143.0)MWCH61-52W100%0.0
1-10Nevada (306.0)MWCA66-69W100%0.0
1-14San Jose St. (336.0)MWCA62-73W100%0.0
1-17Wyoming (71.0)MWCH65-70L0%0.0
1-24Nevada (306.0)MWCH66-62W100%0.0
1-27San Diego St. (26.0)MWCA58-47L0%0.0
1-31Colorado St. (29.0)MWCA80-57L0%0.0
2-4San Jose St. (336.0)MWCH81-63W100%0.0
2-10UNLV (114.0)MWCA73-61L0%0.0
2-14Boise St. (40.0)MWCH70-64W100%0.0
2-18Colorado St. (29.0)MWCH73-81L0%0.0
2-21Utah St. (143.0)MWCA85-79L0%0.0
2-25Wyoming (71.0)MWCA59-64W100%0.0
2-28New Mexico (172.0)MWCH59-55W100%0.0
3-4Air Force (240.0)MWCH68-66W100%0.0
3-7Boise St. (40.0)MWCA71-52L0%0.0
3-12Colorado St. (29.0)MWCN71-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fresno St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fresno St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fresno St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Fresno St.MWC26.3626.3643.6543.65-3.35-3.35
Colorado St.MWC5.875.8779.3179.313.443.44
WyomingMWC4.364.3673.3373.332.042.04
San Diego St.MWC4.334.3377.4277.422.382.38
NevadaMWC4.254.2525.9325.93-2.05-2.05
Boise St.MWC4.234.2375.8675.862.192.19
Utah St.MWC4.204.2057.1457.140.600.60
San Jose St.MWC4.174.170.000.00-4.17-4.17
New MexicoMWC4.174.1748.2848.28-0.14-0.14
Air ForceMWC2.722.7242.8642.86-0.39-0.39
UNLVMWC2.682.6851.6151.610.090.09
PacificWCC1.881.8829.6329.63-0.77-0.77
CaliforniaP121.831.8353.1253.120.110.11
Cal PolyBW1.801.8042.3142.31-0.28-0.28
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.801.8037.9337.93-0.43-0.43
PepperdineWCC1.791.7955.1755.170.180.18
UC IrvineBW1.761.7663.3363.330.470.47
Texas TechB121.701.7038.7138.71-0.38-0.38
East CarolinaAmer1.671.6736.6736.67-0.44-0.44
EvansvilleMVC1.671.6758.6258.620.290.29
MaristMAAC1.671.6719.3519.35-1.02-1.02
Northern ArizonaBSky1.671.6754.8454.840.160.16
New Mexico St.WAC0.350.3567.7467.740.120.12
Cal St. FullertonBW0.310.3124.1424.14-0.16-0.16
Santa ClaraWCC0.260.2640.0040.00-0.05-0.05
UC DavisBW0.260.2679.3179.310.150.15
Saint Mary'sWCC0.250.2568.9768.970.100.10
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.250.2556.6756.670.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.250.2546.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.220.2245.1645.16-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.220.2260.6160.610.050.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.220.2223.3323.33-0.12-0.12
BYUWCC0.220.2271.8871.880.100.10
UC RiversideBW0.220.2241.3841.38-0.04-0.04
Idaho St.BSky0.220.2217.8617.86-0.14-0.14
MontanaBSky0.210.2160.0060.000.040.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.210.2146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.200.2041.9441.94-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.190.1922.5822.58-0.11-0.11
WashingtonP120.190.1951.6151.610.010.01
ColoradoP120.180.1846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.180.1891.1891.180.150.15
GonzagaWCC0.170.1793.9493.940.150.15
Weber St.BSky0.170.1739.2939.29-0.04-0.04
USCP120.160.1637.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Illinois St.MVC0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Washington St.P120.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.130.1340.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
DenverSum0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.130.1320.6920.69-0.08-0.08
SeattleWAC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
MercerSC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
SMUAmer0.110.1181.2581.250.070.07
Arizona St.P120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
TexasB120.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
UtahP120.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
UCFAmer0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
WisconsinB100.080.0891.1891.180.070.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0859.2659.260.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
KansasB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
StanfordP120.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
DelawareCAA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0690.9190.910.050.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0687.1087.100.040.04
ArmyPat0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0362.9662.960.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ElonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
PennIvy0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00