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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Arkansas Little Rock

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:276.0
Current RPI:276
Expected SOS:264
Current SOS:264
Current Record:12-18
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:8-13
Expected Conf Record:8-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-5
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:273
Expected OOC SOS:266



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-18276.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas Little Rock.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18BYU (36.0)WCCA91-62L0%0.0
11-22UMKC (295.0)WACH73-68W100%0.0
11-23Cal St. Northridge (282.0)BWH94-88W100%0.0
11-29Central Arkansas (349.0)SlndH85-71W100%0.0
12-4Missouri St. (246.0)MVCA73-68L0%0.0
12-7Tulsa (45.0)AmerH73-78L0%0.0
12-14Kent St. (94.0)MACH55-60L0%0.0
12-21Green Bay (54.0)HorzN46-66L0%0.0
12-22Bradley (288.0)MVCN54-64W100%0.0
12-30Louisiana Lafayette (142.0)SBH79-83L0%0.0
1-3Georgia St. (53.0)SBA82-69L0%0.0
1-5South Alabama (275.0)SBH69-72L0%0.0
1-8Texas St. (236.0)SBA77-74L0%0.0
1-10Appalachian St. (250.0)SBH64-46W100%0.0
1-17Louisiana Monroe (132.0)SBA64-52L0%0.0
1-19South Alabama (275.0)SBA66-64L0%0.0
1-22Troy (313.0)SBH73-65W100%0.0
1-24UT Arlington (184.0)SBH68-75L0%0.0
1-29Arkansas St. (277.0)SBA65-75W100%0.0
1-31Georgia Southern (113.0)SBA76-61L0%0.0
2-5Louisiana Monroe (132.0)SBH61-77L0%0.0
2-7Texas St. (236.0)SBH69-61W100%0.0
2-12Appalachian St. (250.0)SBA74-79W100%0.0
2-14Georgia Southern (113.0)SBH70-72L0%0.0
2-19Arkansas St. (277.0)SBH70-57W100%0.0
2-21Troy (313.0)SBA58-63W100%0.0
2-26Georgia St. (53.0)SBH92-83W100%0.0
2-28UT Arlington (184.0)SBA82-73L0%0.0
3-5Louisiana Lafayette (142.0)SBA75-69L0%0.0
3-12South Alabama (275.0)SBN57-55L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas Little Rock's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas Little Rock's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas Little Rock.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arkansas Little RockSB26.5226.5236.7636.76-7.02-7.02
South AlabamaSB6.096.0925.0025.00-3.05-3.05
Georgia St.SB4.604.6073.3373.332.152.15
Louisiana LafayetteSB4.564.5653.5753.570.330.33
Louisiana MonroeSB4.564.5655.5655.560.510.51
Texas St.SB4.524.5238.4638.46-1.04-1.04
Georgia SouthernSB4.524.5265.3865.381.391.39
UT ArlingtonSB4.514.5146.4346.43-0.32-0.32
Arkansas St.SB4.444.4438.4638.46-1.02-1.02
TroySB4.444.4432.0032.00-1.60-1.60
Appalachian St.SB4.424.4244.4444.44-0.49-0.49
Central ArkansasSlnd1.791.797.147.14-1.53-1.53
BradleyMVC1.781.7825.8125.81-0.86-0.86
Green BayHorz1.771.7772.4172.410.790.79
TulsaAmer1.751.7570.0070.000.700.70
Missouri St.MVC1.751.7528.5728.57-0.75-0.75
BYUWCC1.671.6770.9770.970.700.70
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.671.6723.3323.33-0.89-0.89
Kent St.MAC1.671.6763.3363.330.440.44
UMKCWAC1.671.6740.0040.00-0.33-0.33
Southern MissCUSA0.190.1925.9325.93-0.09-0.09
Northwestern St.Slnd0.170.1755.5655.560.020.02
SeattleWAC0.170.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.170.1734.3834.38-0.05-0.05
DrakeMVC0.160.1626.6726.67-0.08-0.08
UC IrvineBW0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
LamarSlnd0.150.1542.3142.31-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.140.1487.1087.100.100.10
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
DetroitHorz0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.140.1490.9190.910.110.11
Chicago St.WAC0.130.1317.2417.24-0.09-0.09
IUPUISum0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.120.1226.9226.92-0.06-0.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.120.1286.6786.670.080.08
TexasB120.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
ToledoMAC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Miami FLACC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
OaklandHorz0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
UCFAmer0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.090.0968.9768.970.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0883.3383.330.060.06
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0858.3358.330.010.01
AuburnSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
AkronMAC0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
HoustonAmer0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
NJITind0.080.0856.0056.000.010.01
RichmondA100.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
UC DavisBW0.080.0879.3179.310.050.05
HawaiiBW0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Iowa St.B120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
GonzagaWCC0.080.0893.9493.940.070.07
PortlandWCC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
MississippiSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
FIUCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
TempleAmer0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
PacificWCC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
OregonP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
YaleIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
UtahP120.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00