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Through games of Feb 6, 2016.


Arkansas Little Rock

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:51.0
Current RPI:59
Expected SOS:241
Current SOS:265
Current Record:19-2
Expected Record:25-4
Current Conf Record:11-1
Expected Conf Record:17-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-1
Current OOC Record:8-1
Expected OOC Record:8-1
Expected OOC RPI:45
Expected OOC SOS:277



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-234.710.98%
26-343.230.54%
25-452.632.73%
24-561.818.52%
23-671.65.83%
22-783.41.30%
21-894.30.09%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas Little Rock.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-21San Diego St. (48.8)MWCA43-49W100%0.0
11-26East Carolina (186.3)AmerN46-54W100%0.0
11-28Tulsa (73.3)AmerA60-64W100%0.0
12-1Central Arkansas (326.8)SlndH79-73W100%0.0
12-5Idaho (219.2)BSkyA54-64W100%0.0
12-12DePaul (163.9)BEA44-66W100%0.0
12-16Central Arkansas (326.8)SlndA54-77W100%0.0
12-20Northern Arizona (323.9)BSkyH84-57W100%0.0
12-22Texas Tech (66.2)B12A65-53L0%0.0
12-30South Alabama (256.6)SBA60-69W100%0.0
1-2Troy (292.4)SBA61-67W100%0.0
1-7Louisiana Lafayette (108.6)SBH77-57W100%0.0
1-9Louisiana Monroe (174.7)SBH58-57W100%0.0
1-14Appalachian St. (260.0)SBH81-55W100%0.0
1-18Arkansas St. (242.5)SBA76-73L0%0.0
1-21Texas St. (279.2)SBA74-77W100%0.0
1-23UT Arlington (102.5)SBA62-68W100%0.0
1-28Georgia Southern (250.2)SBH80-67W100%0.0
1-30Georgia St. (146.3)SBH63-53W100%0.0
2-4Troy (292.4)SBH72-49W100%0.0
2-6South Alabama (256.6)SBH74-43W100%0.0
2-11Louisiana Monroe (174.7)SBA0-070%5.7
2-13Louisiana Lafayette (108.6)SBA0-052%0.5
2-18Georgia St. (146.3)SBA0-071%6.2
2-20Georgia Southern (250.2)SBA0-085%11.3
2-25UT Arlington (102.5)SBH0-068%5.0
2-27Texas St. (279.2)SBH0-094%17.3
3-1Arkansas St. (242.5)SBH0-094%16.8
3-3Appalachian St. (260.0)SBA0-085%11.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas Little Rock's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas Little Rock's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas Little Rock.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arkansas Little RockSB26.5626.5494.0690.6623.4021.58
Arkansas St.SB3.384.6040.0038.15-0.68-1.09
TroySB5.464.5726.3228.67-2.59-1.95
Appalachian St.SB3.154.5527.2730.70-1.43-1.75
UT ArlingtonSB3.084.5470.0074.431.232.22
Louisiana MonroeSB3.144.5445.0048.67-0.31-0.12
South AlabamaSB5.404.5436.8436.72-1.42-1.20
Georgia SouthernSB3.144.5342.1141.42-0.50-0.78
Louisiana LafayetteSB3.134.5361.1164.750.691.34
Texas St.SB3.084.5341.1841.36-0.54-0.78
Georgia St.SB3.144.5361.1159.440.700.85
Central ArkansasSlnd4.873.5423.5329.94-2.58-1.42
TulsaAmer2.671.8766.6762.030.890.45
IdahoBSky2.611.8557.1456.890.370.25
Northern ArizonaBSky2.541.8110.5313.63-2.01-1.32
East CarolinaAmer2.541.8147.6243.40-0.12-0.24
San Diego St.MWC2.441.7576.1974.601.280.86
DePaulBE2.381.7236.3635.63-0.65-0.50
Texas TechB122.381.7257.1451.510.340.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.130.2517.6529.25-0.08-0.10
New OrleansSlnd0.310.1927.7834.49-0.14-0.06
MississippiSEC0.240.1865.2259.020.070.03
Southern MissCUSA0.290.1831.5831.99-0.11-0.07
Northwestern St.Slnd0.180.1818.7526.45-0.11-0.09
TexasB120.220.1769.5762.640.080.04
TulaneAmer0.160.1733.3332.33-0.05-0.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.180.1514.2917.91-0.13-0.10
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.1545.0049.37-0.01-0.00
SamfordSC0.280.1539.1341.32-0.06-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.170.1557.1459.450.020.03
North TexasCUSA0.220.1533.3332.99-0.07-0.05
West VirginiaB120.160.1582.6179.550.110.09
HoustonAmer0.160.1472.7368.020.070.05
South FloridaAmer0.110.1420.8320.12-0.07-0.09
MemphisAmer0.110.1460.8760.800.020.03
Washington St.P120.180.1336.3632.01-0.05-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.190.1375.0071.510.100.05
UTSACUSA0.190.1313.6413.63-0.14-0.09
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.170.1252.3854.010.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.170.1215.0015.36-0.12-0.09
IUPUISum0.180.1240.0039.79-0.04-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.180.1271.4369.410.080.05
UABCUSA0.180.1282.6179.430.110.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1215.0027.27-0.00-0.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.120.1271.4368.720.050.05
UTEPCUSA0.120.1252.1751.930.010.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1235.0035.99-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.180.1286.3682.100.130.08
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.180.1270.5975.550.070.06
BaylorB120.110.1272.7366.500.050.04
RiceCUSA0.170.1228.5729.71-0.07-0.05
Seton HallBE0.170.1273.9169.840.080.05
CincinnatiAmer0.050.1170.8370.930.020.05
SMUAmer0.110.1190.4885.570.090.08
TempleAmer0.160.1163.6459.810.040.02
UCFAmer0.160.1152.3845.670.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0945.0046.14-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.110.0957.8962.290.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.110.0940.9143.72-0.02-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0965.0069.270.020.04
Boise St.MWC0.110.0963.6462.520.030.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.170.0966.6767.680.060.03
North DakotaBSky0.110.0947.3749.97-0.01-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.110.0928.5726.96-0.05-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.050.0931.5837.72-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0942.1145.73-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.110.0923.8127.69-0.06-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.110.0922.7323.25-0.06-0.05
San Jose St.MWC0.110.0925.0022.77-0.05-0.05
MinnesotaB100.110.0926.0927.82-0.05-0.04
Penn St.B100.110.0950.0046.740.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.0947.8350.14-0.000.00
KansasB120.110.0981.8277.570.070.05
Oklahoma St.B120.110.0947.8344.37-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0972.7372.450.020.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.0915.7920.03-0.08-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.110.0834.7840.92-0.03-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0659.0953.030.010.00
Miami FLACC0.060.0680.9575.490.040.03
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0656.5262.780.010.02
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.5257.280.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.069.0917.11-0.05-0.04
UCLAP120.060.0656.5253.250.010.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0614.2915.47-0.05-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.5257.000.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.130.0631.5831.81-0.05-0.02
AuburnSEC0.060.0640.9136.61-0.01-0.02
DukeACC0.060.0673.9170.060.030.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.130.0652.6350.230.010.00
HowardMEAC0.130.0638.1040.73-0.03-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0656.2556.100.000.01
LamarSlnd0.130.0631.5831.96-0.05-0.02
MassachusettsA100.130.0640.9139.32-0.02-0.01
PittsburghACC0.130.0676.1968.220.070.02
RutgersB100.130.0621.7420.35-0.07-0.04
The CitadelSC0.060.0633.3331.30-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0665.0063.440.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.0640.9149.26-0.02-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.110.0637.5040.51-0.03-0.01
BelmontOVC0.110.0666.6766.540.040.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0641.6743.87-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0686.3685.030.040.04
Colorado St.MWC0.110.0652.3850.420.010.00
DenverSum0.110.0654.1751.800.010.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0661.9059.650.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0647.6252.67-0.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.060.0663.6459.380.020.01
LSUSEC0.110.0665.2260.280.030.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0634.7830.36-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0660.8762.990.010.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.0650.0049.100.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0663.6462.150.020.01
OregonP120.060.0681.8278.150.040.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0617.3920.65-0.04-0.03
UNLVMWC0.050.0650.0055.190.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.110.0645.0046.77-0.01-0.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0643.4842.51-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.110.0672.7368.540.050.02
CaliforniaP120.110.0665.2262.900.030.01
BradleyMVC0.060.0612.5012.85-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.100.0669.5767.220.040.02
CreightonBE0.100.0662.5059.780.030.01
FordhamA100.060.0655.0052.290.010.00
GeorgetownBE0.100.0654.1752.340.010.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0673.9170.070.030.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0660.8758.450.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0662.5056.260.010.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0658.3354.170.010.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0675.0070.940.030.02
South CarolinaSEC0.110.0686.3679.150.080.03
St. John'sBE0.000.0626.0923.73-0.00-0.03
TCUB120.050.0643.4837.22-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.0686.9686.370.000.04
XavierBE0.100.0691.3084.380.090.04
FurmanSC0.050.0652.1753.310.000.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0668.1865.290.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0650.0049.850.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0634.7836.50-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.050.0672.7370.750.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0682.6178.690.030.03
ArizonaP120.060.0379.1778.310.030.02
GonzagaWCC0.060.0378.2676.870.030.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0345.4538.48-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0382.6181.140.040.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0354.1750.940.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0345.4551.34-0.000.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0355.0054.530.010.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0363.1658.810.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0331.8229.14-0.02-0.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0340.0036.78-0.01-0.01
USCP120.050.0378.2673.060.030.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0352.1755.930.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0320.8323.63-0.03-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.357.73-0.05-0.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0321.7423.66-0.03-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0369.5764.880.020.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0378.2674.360.030.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0384.2181.680.040.02
High PointBSth0.050.0355.0057.470.010.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.035.007.24-0.05-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0352.1751.940.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0359.0959.660.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0340.9140.64-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0339.1337.74-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0366.6763.430.020.01
OhioMAC0.050.0361.9059.420.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0339.1341.12-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0361.9056.430.010.00
RichmondA100.050.0354.5554.550.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0377.2776.850.030.02
StanfordP120.050.0350.0046.610.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0333.3335.50-0.02-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0372.7376.350.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0363.6460.930.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0322.7327.18-0.03-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0369.5768.500.020.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0329.1733.14-0.02-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0350.0053.300.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0376.1973.380.030.01