Arkansas Little Rock

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	176.0
Current RPI:	176
Expected SOS:	154
Current SOS:	154
Current Record:	16-15
Expected Record:	16-15
Current Conf Record:	11-10
Expected Conf Record:	11-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-4
Current OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC RPI:	165
Expected OOC SOS:	125

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-15	176.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas Little Rock.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Tennessee Martin (312.0)	OVC	H	84-68	W	100%
11-14	Louisiana Tech (53.0)	WAC	A	70-52	L	0%
11-16	Mississippi (47.0)	SEC	A	92-52	L	0%
11-19	Wisconsin Milwaukee (307.0)	Horz	H	59-43	W	100%
11-21	Jacksonville (281.0)	ASun	H	78-56	W	100%
11-24	Southern Methodist (219.0)	CUSA	N	56-69	W	100%
11-25	South Carolina (222.0)	SEC	N	62-74	L	0%
11-29	Troy (279.0)	SB	H	58-56	W	100%
12-1	Louisiana Monroe (305.0)	SB	H	83-58	W	100%
12-6	Cincinnati (50.0)	BE	A	87-53	L	0%
12-15	Tulsa (127.0)	CUSA	H	72-65	W	100%
12-17	Louisiana Tech (53.0)	WAC	H	73-75	L	0%
12-22	South Alabama (154.0)	SB	A	77-62	L	0%
12-29	Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)	SB	A	79-70	L	0%
1-3	Western Kentucky (150.0)	SB	H	75-67	W	100%
1-5	Troy (279.0)	SB	A	67-64	L	0%
1-10	North Texas (247.0)	SB	H	67-53	W	100%
1-12	Florida International (111.0)	SB	H	88-76	W	100%
1-17	Middle Tennessee (28.0)	SB	A	82-50	L	0%
1-19	Western Kentucky (150.0)	SB	A	54-59	W	100%
1-24	Florida Atlantic (218.0)	SB	H	65-62	W	100%
1-26	North Texas (247.0)	SB	A	57-62	W	100%
2-2	South Alabama (154.0)	SB	H	66-70	L	0%
2-7	Louisiana Monroe (305.0)	SB	A	60-70	W	100%
2-14	Arkansas St. (163.0)	SB	A	86-62	L	0%
2-16	Middle Tennessee (28.0)	SB	H	61-66	L	0%
2-21	Florida International (111.0)	SB	A	65-52	L	0%
2-23	Florida Atlantic (218.0)	SB	A	73-59	L	0%
2-28	Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)	SB	H	77-68	W	100%
3-2	Arkansas St. (163.0)	SB	H	78-71	W	100%
3-9	Florida International (111.0)	SB	H	54-69	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas Little Rock's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Arkansas Little Rock's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Arkansas Little Rock.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	26.48	26.48	49.60	49.60	-0.21	-0.21
Florida International	SB	5.88	5.88	55.17	55.17	0.61	0.61
Western Kentucky	SB	4.47	4.47	59.38	59.38	0.84	0.84
Troy	SB	4.38	4.38	35.48	35.48	-1.27	-1.27
Middle Tennessee	SB	4.37	4.37	83.87	83.87	2.96	2.96
Arkansas St.	SB	4.34	4.34	60.71	60.71	0.93	0.93
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	4.32	4.32	36.67	36.67	-1.15	-1.15
Louisiana Monroe	SB	4.30	4.30	16.00	16.00	-2.93	-2.93
Florida Atlantic	SB	4.27	4.27	41.38	41.38	-0.74	-0.74
North Texas	SB	4.26	4.26	39.29	39.29	-0.91	-0.91
South Alabama	SB	4.25	4.25	53.85	53.85	0.33	0.33
Louisiana Tech	WAC	3.33	3.33	79.31	79.31	1.95	1.95
Tennessee Martin	OVC	1.69	1.69	25.93	25.93	-0.81	-0.81
South Carolina	SEC	1.69	1.69	41.94	41.94	-0.27	-0.27
Mississippi	SEC	1.69	1.69	75.76	75.76	0.87	0.87
Jacksonville	ASun	1.66	1.66	41.38	41.38	-0.29	-0.29
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	1.66	1.66	20.69	20.69	-0.98	-0.98
Southern Methodist	CUSA	1.66	1.66	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Tulsa	CUSA	1.66	1.66	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Cincinnati	BE	1.64	1.64	65.62	65.62	0.51	0.51
UAB	CUSA	0.29	0.29	46.88	46.88	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.23	0.23	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.22	0.22	31.25	31.25	-0.08	-0.08
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.21	0.21	69.70	69.70	0.08	0.08
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.17	0.17	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.17	0.17	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.17	0.17	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.16	0.16	20.69	20.69	-0.09	-0.09
Murray St.	OVC	0.16	0.16	65.52	65.52	0.05	0.05
Georgia St.	CAA	0.16	0.16	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.16	0.16	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.16	0.16	9.68	9.68	-0.13	-0.13
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.16	0.16	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.16	0.16	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
Houston	CUSA	0.15	0.15	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.15	0.15	71.88	71.88	0.07	0.07
Louisville	BE	0.15	0.15	85.29	85.29	0.10	0.10
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.15	0.15	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.15	0.15	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Florida St.	ACC	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.13	0.13	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
IUPUI	Sum	0.13	0.13	13.33	13.33	-0.09	-0.09
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.13	0.13	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri	SEC	0.12	0.12	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Florida	SEC	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Memphis	CUSA	0.11	0.11	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Lipscomb	ASun	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Dayton	A10	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Denver	WAC	0.10	0.10	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
Idaho	WAC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.10	0.10	13.79	13.79	-0.08	-0.08
San Jose St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Seattle	WAC	0.10	0.10	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.10	0.10	85.19	85.19	0.07	0.07
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.10	0.10	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.10	0.10	42.31	42.31	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.10	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.10	0.10	35.71	35.71	-0.03	-0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	10.00	10.00	-0.07	-0.07
St. Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.08	0.08	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Belmont	OVC	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Elon	SC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.07	0.07	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	28.00	28.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Texas Christian	B12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.02	0.02	7.14	7.14	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.02	0.02	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.02	0.02	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.02	0.02	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00