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Through games of Nov 23, 2014.


Arkansas Little Rock

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:208.0
Current RPI:65
Expected SOS:201
Current SOS:81
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:14-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC RPI:196
Expected OOC SOS:122



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-530.00.01%
22-663.20.04%
21-773.70.12%
20-890.80.49%
19-9108.01.44%
18-10125.63.85%
17-11145.46.37%
16-12165.510.91%
15-13184.814.83%
14-14204.717.23%
13-15224.615.96%
12-16244.412.79%
11-17261.98.04%
10-18280.84.78%
9-19297.52.20%
8-20309.70.75%
7-21319.80.15%
6-22331.00.02%
5-23334.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas Little Rock.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18BYU (42.8)WCCA91-62L0%0.0
11-22UMKC (244.5)WACH73-68W100%0.0
11-23Cal St. Northridge (219.0)BWH94-88W100%0.0
11-29Central Arkansas (332.2)SlndH0-086%13.0
12-4Missouri St. (136.8)MVCA0-022%-9.5
12-7Tulsa (110.4)AmerH0-036%-4.3
12-14Kent St. (87.9)MACH0-033%-5.2
12-21Green Bay (103.4)HorzN0-021%-9.6
12-30Louisiana Lafayette (199.9)SBH0-058%2.4
1-3Georgia St. (129.0)SBA0-023%-8.9
1-5South Alabama (240.4)SBH0-067%5.1
1-8Texas St. (199.0)SBA0-039%-3.5
1-10Appalachian St. (313.4)SBH0-085%12.5
1-17Louisiana Monroe (114.5)SBA0-023%-8.8
1-19South Alabama (240.4)SBA0-043%-2.0
1-22Troy (244.2)SBH0-065%4.5
1-24UT Arlington (145.8)SBH0-052%0.5
1-29Arkansas St. (246.4)SBA0-041%-2.7
1-31Georgia Southern (222.0)SBA0-039%-3.2
2-5Louisiana Monroe (114.5)SBH0-045%-1.6
2-7Texas St. (199.0)SBH0-062%3.7
2-12Appalachian St. (313.4)SBA0-067%5.3
2-14Georgia Southern (222.0)SBH0-063%4.0
2-19Arkansas St. (246.4)SBH0-064%4.5
2-21Troy (244.2)SBA0-041%-2.6
2-26Georgia St. (129.0)SBH0-044%-1.7
2-28UT Arlington (145.8)SBA0-029%-6.6
3-5Louisiana Lafayette (199.9)SBA0-034%-4.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas Little Rock's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas Little Rock's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas Little Rock.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arkansas Little RockSB32.9226.5566.6746.8710.97-1.66
Georgia St.SB0.004.820.0058.14-0.000.78
Arkansas St.SB0.004.770.0042.94-0.00-0.67
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.004.760.0048.00-0.00-0.19
TroySB0.004.760.0044.64-0.00-0.51
Appalachian St.SB0.004.7433.3321.56-0.00-2.70
South AlabamaSB0.004.740.0039.41-0.00-1.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.004.7475.0056.630.000.63
Georgia SouthernSB0.004.730.0046.07-0.00-0.37
Louisiana MonroeSB0.004.7350.0063.220.001.25
Texas St.SB0.004.7366.6748.890.00-0.11
Central ArkansasSlnd0.001.920.0021.67-0.00-1.09
Green BayHorz0.001.900.0066.85-0.000.64
TulsaAmer0.001.8866.6752.050.000.08
Missouri St.MVC0.001.8250.0051.780.000.06
BYUWCC16.671.79100.0065.8516.670.57
Cal St. NorthridgeBW16.671.7950.0043.610.00-0.23
Kent St.MAC0.001.7975.0067.620.000.63
UMKCWAC16.671.7933.3346.15-5.56-0.14
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.200.0053.62-0.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1950.0054.200.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1633.3348.17-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.160.0033.64-0.00-0.05
SeattleWAC0.000.1625.0045.26-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.160.0028.27-0.00-0.07
PepperdineWCC0.000.16100.0050.740.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.1333.3353.24-0.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1340.0038.14-0.00-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.000.1366.6752.020.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.130.0033.64-0.00-0.04
TexasB120.000.13100.0081.510.000.08
SamfordSC3.750.1340.0039.12-0.75-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.130.0066.50-0.000.04
BradleyMVC0.000.1333.3323.14-0.00-0.07
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.130.0043.51-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.130.0033.26-0.00-0.04
ToledoMAC0.000.1333.3362.70-0.000.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.1266.6760.490.000.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1250.0050.460.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.1250.0054.910.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.1250.0031.800.00-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.000.1233.3367.24-0.000.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1020.0034.58-0.00-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.100.0033.50-0.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.100.0024.98-0.00-0.05
UCFAmer0.000.10100.0047.030.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.100.0034.13-0.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.100.0065.55-0.000.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.1060.0056.390.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.1066.6740.980.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.10100.0084.310.000.07
Miami FLACC0.000.10100.0079.170.000.06
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1066.6749.820.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.100.0037.72-0.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1040.0050.84-0.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.09100.0051.850.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.090.0051.68-0.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.09100.0062.980.000.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.090.0024.68-0.00-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.000.0966.6732.670.00-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.09100.0031.430.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0975.0054.060.000.01
Long Beach St.BW4.170.0925.0050.35-2.080.00
Montana St.BSky1.670.090.0020.99-1.67-0.05
Iowa St.B120.000.09100.0062.120.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0733.3348.37-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0775.0054.620.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0766.6758.100.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.07100.0043.590.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0766.6768.430.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.07100.0065.770.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.070.0039.35-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.070.0033.67-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.070.0031.77-0.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.000.0733.3343.07-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0750.0037.730.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0720.0053.22-0.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.070.0032.38-0.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.070.0031.79-0.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.07100.0062.400.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0775.0056.300.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0766.6766.540.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0725.0040.26-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0780.0071.590.000.03
MississippiSEC0.000.0775.0054.940.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.07100.0071.230.000.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0052.940.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0633.3342.08-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0675.0070.770.000.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0086.980.000.05
HoustonAmer0.000.06100.0065.000.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3326.52-0.00-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6752.830.000.00
MemphisAmer0.000.060.0066.86-0.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0046.960.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0633.3323.98-0.00-0.03
PacificWCC0.000.0633.3333.24-0.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.06100.0051.410.000.00
PurdueB100.000.06100.0062.070.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0072.150.000.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.0666.6748.260.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.06100.0061.520.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0045.730.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0069.230.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.0650.0053.140.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0650.0034.180.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0650.0035.380.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0028.04-0.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0063.150.000.02
San Diego St.MWC1.670.06100.0081.221.670.04
AkronMAC0.000.0675.0070.240.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.06100.0059.020.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.060.0035.32-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0060.050.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0620.0035.47-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0675.0065.560.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3324.24-0.00-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.06100.0052.480.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0625.0052.16-0.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0675.0067.090.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0038.12-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0026.20-0.00-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0088.080.000.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0650.0046.140.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0666.6747.490.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0625.0066.60-0.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0032.53-0.00-0.02
NJITind0.000.0625.0025.81-0.00-0.03
RichmondA100.000.0666.6765.070.000.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0064.030.000.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.060.0035.17-0.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0666.6748.230.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0666.6732.890.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0650.0063.270.000.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0650.0035.550.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0633.3335.65-0.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0675.0070.900.000.02
UC DavisBW0.000.06100.0043.690.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0028.18-0.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0056.35-0.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.060.0049.00-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.04100.0085.040.000.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0037.26-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0366.6746.580.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0058.720.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0064.500.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0380.0061.870.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0366.6762.380.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0070.150.000.01
UtahP120.000.0366.6769.560.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0375.0061.320.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0366.6756.220.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0054.990.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0350.0055.730.000.00
KansasB120.000.0350.0062.480.000.01
Kansas St.B122.080.0366.6750.120.690.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0320.0026.97-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC2.080.0366.6746.610.69-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6753.760.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0021.84-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0045.000.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0044.560.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3349.87-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0039.080.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0366.6753.080.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0053.380.000.00
YaleIvy0.000.0375.0069.430.000.01
ArizonaP121.670.03100.0070.781.670.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0078.240.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0040.51-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.03100.0069.430.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.03100.0051.200.000.00
South DakotaSum0.000.030.0036.09-0.00-0.01