Arkansas Little Rock

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	187.7
Current RPI:	181
Expected SOS:	147
Current SOS:	133
Current Record:	10-13
Expected Record:	13-16
Current Conf Record:	8-2
Expected Conf Record:	11-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	3.60%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-5
Current OOC Record:	2-11
Expected OOC Record:	2-11
Expected OOC RPI:	275
Expected OOC SOS:	49

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-13	134.3	0.30%
15-14	149.8	5.72%
14-15	167.5	21.74%
13-16	185.1	33.47%
12-17	201.9	27.17%
11-18	217.5	10.25%
10-19	233.0	1.34%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas Little Rock.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Tulsa (105.7)	CUSA	A	65-49	L	0%	0.0
11-13	Northwestern St. (178.3)	Slnd	H	72-66	W	100%	0.0
11-15	IUPUI (245.2)	Sum	H	75-70	W	100%	0.0
11-18	Eastern Michigan (246.9)	MAC	A	62-51	L	0%	0.0
11-20	Michigan St. (8.2)	B10	A	69-47	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.3)	Horz	H	54-59	L	0%	0.0
11-29	Northwestern St. (178.3)	Slnd	A	80-65	L	0%	0.0
12-4	Southern Methodist (214.4)	CUSA	H	63-69	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Missouri St. (82.4)	MVC	H	60-68	L	0%	0.0
12-12	Oral Roberts (43.6)	Sum	H	55-58	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Louisiana Tech (204.7)	WAC	A	71-68	L	0%	0.0
12-20	Illinois St. (109.5)	MVC	A	72-65	L	0%	0.0
12-29	North Texas (203.3)	SB	A	66-69	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Denver (91.3)	SB	A	59-66	W	100%	0.0
1-3	Kentucky (4.3)	SEC	N	73-51	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Florida Atlantic (179.8)	SB	H	40-38	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Louisiana Monroe (323.3)	SB	A	51-72	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Arkansas St. (228.9)	SB	A	62-63	W	100%	0.0
1-19	Louisiana Lafayette (159.3)	SB	H	49-68	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Western Kentucky (240.2)	SB	A	65-53	L	0%	0.0
1-26	South Alabama (196.0)	SB	H	75-50	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Denver (91.3)	SB	H	64-57	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Louisiana Monroe (323.3)	SB	H	70-66	W	100%	0.0
2-9	Louisiana Lafayette (159.3)	SB	A	0-0		33%	-4.8
2-11	Middle Tennessee (49.6)	SB	A	0-0		8%	-15.4
2-16	Florida International (212.8)	SB	H	0-0		64%	3.8
2-18	Troy (274.9)	SB	A	0-0		52%	0.7
2-23	North Texas (203.3)	SB	H	0-0		56%	1.7
2-25	Arkansas St. (228.9)	SB	H	0-0		70%	5.8

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas Little Rock's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Arkansas Little Rock's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Arkansas Little Rock.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	26.41	26.24	42.99	43.74	-3.70	-3.29
Louisiana Monroe	SB	4.89	4.21	9.52	9.68	-3.96	-3.40
Arkansas St.	SB	2.79	4.16	39.13	40.00	-0.61	-0.83
Denver	SB	4.73	4.13	77.27	77.58	2.58	2.28
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	2.61	4.13	52.17	52.62	0.11	0.22
North Texas	SB	2.59	4.11	52.63	52.35	0.14	0.19
Northwestern St.	Slnd	4.49	3.54	55.56	54.82	0.50	0.34
Western Kentucky	SB	2.65	2.40	31.82	32.14	-0.97	-0.86
Florida International	SB	0.43	2.37	33.33	37.19	-0.14	-0.61
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.39	2.35	83.33	84.50	0.26	1.62
Florida Atlantic	SB	2.46	2.34	38.10	41.19	-0.59	-0.41
South Alabama	SB	2.46	2.34	55.00	54.99	0.25	0.23
Troy	SB	0.48	2.34	28.57	29.48	-0.21	-0.96
Missouri St.	MVC	2.40	1.90	52.17	55.72	0.10	0.22
Louisiana Tech	WAC	2.43	1.88	40.00	41.43	-0.49	-0.32
Oral Roberts	Sum	2.32	1.87	80.00	80.11	1.39	1.13
IUPUI	Sum	2.36	1.87	36.36	36.77	-0.64	-0.49
Tulsa	CUSA	2.37	1.84	59.09	57.64	0.43	0.28
Southern Methodist	CUSA	2.36	1.84	35.00	35.64	-0.71	-0.53
Eastern Michigan	MAC	2.27	1.78	38.10	36.26	-0.54	-0.49
Michigan St.	B10	2.27	1.78	75.00	71.98	1.14	0.78
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	2.27	1.78	54.55	56.22	0.21	0.22
Illinois St.	MVC	2.26	1.78	60.87	60.75	0.49	0.38
Kentucky	SEC	2.17	1.72	95.65	92.32	1.98	1.46
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.34	0.34	25.00	23.75	-0.17	-0.18
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.36	0.31	78.26	72.34	0.20	0.14
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.35	0.27	27.78	29.58	-0.16	-0.11
Lamar	Slnd	0.24	0.27	61.90	67.23	0.06	0.09
Indiana St.	MVC	0.28	0.24	56.52	54.22	0.04	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.21	0.21	41.18	42.61	-0.04	-0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.26	0.21	27.78	29.87	-0.12	-0.08
Mississippi	SEC	0.19	0.21	63.64	56.71	0.05	0.03
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.15	0.19	76.19	75.94	0.08	0.10
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.30	0.18	18.18	21.13	-0.19	-0.11
Southern Utah	Sum	0.09	0.18	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.19	0.18	85.71	82.18	0.14	0.12
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.29	0.18	31.82	42.13	-0.10	-0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.18	0.17	61.90	63.52	0.04	0.05
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.20	0.16	59.09	57.28	0.04	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.15	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.09	0.15	71.43	69.05	0.04	0.06
Austin Peay	OVC	0.09	0.14	33.33	35.97	-0.03	-0.04
Louisville	BE	0.19	0.14	78.26	72.66	0.10	0.07
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.18	0.14	62.50	61.50	0.05	0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.18	0.14	34.78	32.06	-0.06	-0.05
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.23	0.14	34.78	35.20	-0.07	-0.04
Oakland	Sum	0.18	0.14	48.00	50.21	-0.01	0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.23	0.14	87.50	85.41	0.17	0.10
Drake	MVC	0.19	0.14	52.17	50.09	0.01	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	82.61	80.42	0.09	0.09
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.13	26.32	29.79	-0.03	-0.05
Texas Tech	B12	0.10	0.13	31.82	25.98	-0.03	-0.06
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.15	0.12	19.05	25.52	-0.09	-0.06
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.15	0.12	57.14	60.75	0.02	0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.16	0.12	59.09	59.72	0.03	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.15	0.12	47.62	48.82	-0.01	-0.00
Utah St.	WAC	0.14	0.12	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.14	0.12	71.43	66.60	0.06	0.04
Fresno St.	WAC	0.15	0.12	39.13	44.52	-0.03	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.19	0.12	45.45	44.66	-0.02	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.14	0.12	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.10	0.12	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.10	0.12	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.10	0.12	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.10	0.12	61.90	58.59	0.02	0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.14	0.12	35.00	35.31	-0.04	-0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.13	0.12	26.32	28.83	-0.06	-0.05
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.13	0.12	73.91	75.49	0.06	0.06
Western Illinois	Sum	0.14	0.12	52.63	48.41	0.01	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.09	0.11	24.00	24.86	-0.05	-0.06
Evansville	MVC	0.14	0.11	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	ind	0.09	0.11	23.53	33.28	-0.05	-0.04
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.10	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.11	0.09	30.00	37.30	-0.04	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.00	0.09	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Belmont	ASun	0.00	0.09	69.57	73.28	0.00	0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.09	0.09	17.39	24.41	-0.06	-0.05
Oklahoma	B12	0.15	0.09	59.09	54.70	0.03	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.14	0.09	66.67	60.80	0.05	0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.14	0.09	42.86	45.80	-0.02	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.14	0.09	65.22	63.61	0.04	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.14	0.09	76.19	70.73	0.07	0.04
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.10	0.09	30.00	30.06	-0.04	-0.04
Nevada	WAC	0.10	0.09	80.95	76.42	0.06	0.05
St. Mary's	WCC	0.14	0.09	90.91	87.74	0.11	0.07
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.09	0.09	35.00	39.38	-0.03	-0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	100.00	94.55	0.09	0.08
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.10	0.09	5.26	7.30	-0.09	-0.07
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.14	0.09	45.45	40.70	-0.01	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.10	0.09	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.09	4.35	9.66	-0.04	-0.07
Western Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.09	40.91	42.96	-0.02	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.09	75.00	73.97	0.05	0.04
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.09	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.09	81.82	77.20	0.03	0.05
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.09	65.22	60.58	0.03	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.00	0.09	69.57	65.87	0.00	0.03
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.09	75.00	75.78	0.05	0.04
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.07	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.00	0.07	52.38	52.86	0.00	0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.07	15.00	15.73	-0.04	-0.05
Texas	B12	0.05	0.07	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.10	0.06	40.00	41.30	-0.02	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.06	76.00	72.50	0.03	0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.06	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.10	0.06	72.73	71.71	0.05	0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.06	30.00	34.15	-0.02	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.00	0.06	56.00	55.65	0.00	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.11	0.06	69.57	65.47	0.04	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.11	0.06	34.78	38.42	-0.03	-0.01
Missouri	B12	0.11	0.06	91.30	87.18	0.09	0.05
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.09	0.06	82.61	81.44	0.06	0.04
Texas A&M	B12	0.09	0.06	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	Slnd	0.11	0.06	22.22	27.62	-0.06	-0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.06	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.09	0.06	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	Horz	0.09	0.06	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.06	65.00	66.70	0.01	0.02
California	P12	0.09	0.06	75.00	74.61	0.05	0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.06	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.04
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.06	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.06	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.06	57.14	53.12	0.01	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.06	25.00	28.52	-0.02	-0.03
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.06	47.62	51.08	-0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.06	79.17	80.10	0.05	0.04
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.06	19.05	21.29	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.10	0.06	69.57	68.90	0.04	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.06	13.64	16.14	-0.03	-0.04
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.09	0.06	30.00	31.54	-0.04	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.06	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.06	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.06	27.27	26.95	-0.02	-0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.09	0.06	9.52	11.44	-0.07	-0.05
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.09	0.06	80.00	78.06	0.06	0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.06	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.09	0.06	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.09	0.06	78.26	78.39	0.05	0.03
Portland	WCC	0.09	0.06	21.74	21.70	-0.05	-0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.10	0.06	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.06	69.57	71.51	0.02	0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.09	0.06	62.50	62.49	0.02	0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.06	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.06	69.57	65.15	0.04	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.06	72.73	64.43	0.04	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.06	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.06	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.06	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.10	0.06	61.90	55.14	0.02	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.00	0.06	86.96	85.46	0.00	0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.06	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.06	77.27	77.67	0.02	0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.06	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.09	0.06	81.82	81.49	0.06	0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.06	86.96	83.16	0.07	0.04
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.06	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.06	41.67	38.67	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.09	0.06	8.70	13.10	-0.08	-0.04
West Virginia	BE	0.09	0.06	65.22	65.17	0.03	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.00	0.06	82.61	77.63	0.00	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.06	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.09	0.06	40.91	39.56	-0.02	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.03	17.65	27.10	-0.03	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	16.67	23.02	-0.03	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.03	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.00	0.03	72.22	71.97	0.00	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.00	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.00	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.00	0.03	59.09	50.82	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.79	0.02	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.03	90.48	87.91	0.04	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.03	65.00	60.02	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.03	45.45	45.55	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.03	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
Washington	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.00	0.03	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Furman	SC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.03	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.00	0.03	34.78	33.46	-0.00	-0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.00	0.03	33.33	41.31	-0.00	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
UCLA	P12	0.00	0.03	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.03	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.03	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.03	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	45.70	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.03	4.76	9.95	-0.04	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.03	30.43	29.50	-0.02	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.03	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.03	8.70	11.67	-0.04	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	74.91	0.02	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.03	70.83	71.64	0.02	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.03	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.03	81.82	81.03	0.03	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.03	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.03	26.32	29.71	-0.02	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.01	0.05	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.03	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.03	27.27	35.02	-0.02	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.03	77.27	73.45	0.02	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.03	34.78	33.43	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.04	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.01