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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Arkansas Little Rock

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:186.0
Current RPI:186
Expected SOS:159
Current SOS:159
Current Record:13-17
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:143
Expected OOC SOS:26



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17186.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas Little Rock.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11North Florida (189.0)ASunH70-72L0%0.0
11-16Florida (1.0)SECA86-56L0%0.0
11-18Middle Tennessee (64.0)CUSAA76-59L0%0.0
11-22Southern (171.0)SWACA82-85W100%0.0
11-29Oklahoma (26.0)B12A101-81L0%0.0
12-10Tulsa (73.0)CUSAA78-64L0%0.0
12-13Memphis (37.0)AmerA73-59L0%0.0
12-20Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCN75-70W100%0.0
12-21Southern Miss (33.0)CUSAN60-74L0%0.0
12-30Grambling St. (348.0)SWACH88-68W100%0.0
1-2Texas St. (307.0)SBA59-63W100%0.0
1-4UT Arlington (199.0)SBA70-72W100%0.0
1-9South Alabama (280.0)SBH65-60W100%0.0
1-11Troy (285.0)SBH62-75L0%0.0
1-16Western Kentucky (125.0)SBA83-87W100%0.0
1-18Georgia St. (76.0)SBA99-73L0%0.0
1-23Texas St. (307.0)SBH69-64W100%0.0
1-25Arkansas St. (180.0)SBA77-49L0%0.0
1-30Louisiana Lafayette (90.0)SBH80-69W100%0.0
2-1South Alabama (280.0)SBA58-62W100%0.0
2-6Georgia St. (76.0)SBH57-68L0%0.0
2-8Western Kentucky (125.0)SBH78-79L0%0.0
2-13Louisiana Lafayette (90.0)SBA93-87L0%0.0
2-15Louisiana Monroe (244.0)SBA65-49L0%0.0
2-22UT Arlington (199.0)SBH71-75L0%0.0
2-27Troy (285.0)SBA55-62W100%0.0
3-1Arkansas St. (180.0)SBH74-67W100%0.0
3-8Louisiana Monroe (244.0)SBH65-66L0%0.0
3-13Troy (285.0)SBN74-61W100%0.0
3-14Arkansas St. (180.0)SBN116-114L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas Little Rock's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas Little Rock's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas Little Rock.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arkansas Little RockSB26.5826.5845.8945.89-2.18-2.18
Arkansas St.SB6.026.0255.5655.560.670.67
TroySB5.965.9630.7730.77-2.29-2.29
Georgia St.SB4.524.5272.4172.412.032.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB4.524.5265.5265.521.401.40
UT ArlingtonSB4.504.5042.8642.86-0.64-0.64
Western KentuckySB4.444.4462.0762.071.071.07
South AlabamaSB4.404.4030.7730.77-1.69-1.69
Louisiana MonroeSB4.404.4029.1729.17-1.83-1.83
Texas St.SB4.354.3522.2222.22-2.42-2.42
Southern MissCUSA1.891.8980.0080.001.131.13
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.881.8870.0070.000.750.75
SouthernSWAC1.811.8157.1457.140.260.26
FloridaSEC1.781.7893.9493.941.561.56
TulsaCUSA1.771.7762.5062.500.440.44
OklahomaB121.751.7570.9770.970.730.73
North FloridaASun1.751.7544.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Grambling St.SWAC1.721.7215.3815.38-1.19-1.19
MemphisAmer1.691.6970.0070.000.680.68
Jacksonville St.OVC1.671.6728.5728.57-0.71-0.71
Jackson St.SWAC0.340.3435.4835.48-0.10-0.10
Louisiana TechCUSA0.300.3078.7978.790.170.17
MississippiSEC0.260.2657.5857.580.040.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.230.2357.1457.140.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.230.2332.1432.14-0.08-0.08
TexasB120.220.2269.7069.700.090.09
TulaneCUSA0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.220.2229.0329.03-0.09-0.09
UABCUSA0.190.1955.1755.170.020.02
LouisvilleAmer0.190.1985.2985.290.130.13
Texas SouthernSWAC0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
SamfordSC0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.170.1724.0024.00-0.09-0.09
HoustonAmer0.160.1651.5251.520.000.00
BaylorB120.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
Old DominionCUSA0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.150.1530.3030.30-0.06-0.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.140.1448.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.140.1414.8114.81-0.10-0.10
KansasB120.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
RiceCUSA0.140.1417.8617.86-0.09-0.09
Kansas St.B120.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
TCUB120.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
East CarolinaCUSA0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.130.1322.2222.22-0.07-0.07
North TexasCUSA0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.130.1370.5970.590.050.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
LSUSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.110.1146.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.110.1130.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.07-0.07
SMUAmer0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Murray St.OVC0.110.1159.2659.260.020.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
UTEPCUSA0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
Ohio St.B100.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
GonzagaWCC0.090.0981.8281.820.050.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0967.8667.860.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
ColoradoP120.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
LamarSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.07-0.07
NebraskaB100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0821.2121.21-0.05-0.05
ToledoMAC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
USC UpstateASun0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
WyomingMWC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
MercerASun0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.080.08100.00100.000.080.08
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
DetroitHorz0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
DePaulBE0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0693.1093.100.050.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
StetsonASun0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
MarylandACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
WisconsinB100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01