Weber St.

Conference:	BSky
Expected RPI:	70.0
Current RPI:	70
Expected SOS:	225
Current SOS:	225
Current Record:	22-6
Expected Record:	22-6
Current Conf Record:	15-3
Expected Conf Record:	15-3
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	16-1
Current OOC Record:	7-3
Expected OOC Record:	7-3
Expected OOC RPI:	53
Expected OOC SOS:	117

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
22-6	70.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Weber St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-15	Utah St. (143.0)	WAC	H	73-63	W	100%
11-19	UC Irvine (254.0)	BW	A	72-80	W	100%
11-27	Jacksonville St. (216.0)	OVC	N	69-61	W	100%
11-28	St. Mary's (28.0)	WCC	A	87-70	L	0%
12-3	San Jose St. (279.0)	WAC	H	91-89	W	100%
12-7	Brigham Young (46.0)	WCC	A	94-66	L	0%
12-10	Southern Utah (232.0)	Sum	H	84-66	W	100%
12-16	California (37.0)	P12	A	77-57	L	0%
12-22	Utah (274.0)	P12	H	80-51	W	100%
12-29	Idaho St. (290.0)	BSky	H	78-64	W	100%
12-31	Sacramento St. (315.0)	BSky	H	74-63	W	100%
1-5	Eastern Washington (209.0)	BSky	A	69-76	W	100%
1-7	Portland St. (187.0)	BSky	A	81-88	W	100%
1-12	Montana St. (275.0)	BSky	H	63-49	W	100%
1-14	Montana (74.0)	BSky	H	80-64	W	100%
1-19	Northern Arizona (337.0)	BSky	H	81-67	W	100%
1-26	Sacramento St. (315.0)	BSky	A	60-75	W	100%
1-28	Idaho St. (290.0)	BSky	A	64-62	L	0%
2-2	Portland St. (187.0)	BSky	H	92-79	W	100%
2-4	Northern Colorado (262.0)	BSky	H	93-81	W	100%
2-9	Northern Arizona (337.0)	BSky	A	49-67	W	100%
2-11	Eastern Washington (209.0)	BSky	H	84-75	W	100%
2-15	Montana St. (275.0)	BSky	A	70-79	W	100%
2-18	Texas Arlington (111.0)	Slnd	H	72-70	W	100%
2-23	Northern Colorado (262.0)	BSky	A	71-88	W	100%
2-28	Montana (74.0)	BSky	A	66-51	L	0%
3-6	Portland St. (187.0)	BSky	N	69-63	W	100%
3-7	Montana (74.0)	BSky	A	85-66	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Weber St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Weber St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Weber St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Weber St.	BSky	26.62	26.62	84.48	84.48	18.36	18.36
Portland St.	BSky	6.39	6.39	55.56	55.56	0.71	0.71
Montana	BSky	6.38	6.38	80.77	80.77	3.92	3.92
Eastern Washington	BSky	4.81	4.81	46.43	46.43	-0.34	-0.34
Montana St.	BSky	4.73	4.73	40.00	40.00	-0.95	-0.95
Idaho St.	BSky	4.71	4.71	25.93	25.93	-2.27	-2.27
Northern Arizona	BSky	4.61	4.61	12.00	12.00	-3.51	-3.51
Sacramento St.	BSky	4.61	4.61	33.33	33.33	-1.54	-1.54
Northern Colorado	BSky	4.58	4.58	33.33	33.33	-1.53	-1.53
San Jose St.	WAC	2.04	2.04	27.59	27.59	-0.91	-0.91
Utah	P12	2.00	2.00	17.24	17.24	-1.31	-1.31
Utah St.	WAC	2.00	2.00	53.33	53.33	0.13	0.13
Brigham Young	WCC	1.97	1.97	73.33	73.33	0.92	0.92
California	P12	1.91	1.91	71.88	71.88	0.83	0.83
St. Mary's	WCC	1.90	1.90	82.76	82.76	1.25	1.25
UC Irvine	BW	1.90	1.90	35.71	35.71	-0.54	-0.54
Southern Utah	Sum	1.81	1.81	42.86	42.86	-0.26	-0.26
Texas Arlington	Slnd	1.81	1.81	76.67	76.67	0.97	0.97
Jacksonville St.	OVC	1.79	1.79	44.83	44.83	-0.18	-0.18
Idaho	WAC	0.42	0.42	55.17	55.17	0.04	0.04
Seattle	ind	0.42	0.42	37.50	37.50	-0.11	-0.11
UC Davis	BW	0.35	0.35	13.33	13.33	-0.25	-0.25
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.34	0.34	67.86	67.86	0.12	0.12
San Francisco	WCC	0.34	0.34	58.06	58.06	0.05	0.05
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.32	0.32	48.15	48.15	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.31	0.31	62.07	62.07	0.08	0.08
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.31	0.31	58.62	58.62	0.05	0.05
Oregon St.	P12	0.30	0.30	56.25	56.25	0.04	0.04
Oregon	P12	0.29	0.29	70.97	70.97	0.12	0.12
Cal Poly	BW	0.29	0.29	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.28	0.28	48.15	48.15	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.27	0.27	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Hawaii	WAC	0.27	0.27	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada	WAC	0.27	0.27	80.00	80.00	0.16	0.16
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.26	0.26	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.25	0.25	32.14	32.14	-0.09	-0.09
Denver	SB	0.24	0.24	70.97	70.97	0.10	0.10
Portland	WCC	0.24	0.24	20.00	20.00	-0.14	-0.14
Gonzaga	WCC	0.24	0.24	80.65	80.65	0.14	0.14
Arizona St.	P12	0.22	0.22	32.26	32.26	-0.08	-0.08
Utah Valley	GWC	0.21	0.21	57.14	57.14	0.03	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.19	0.19	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
UC Riverside	BW	0.19	0.19	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.19	0.19	72.73	72.73	0.08	0.08
Washington St.	P12	0.19	0.19	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.18	0.18	74.19	74.19	0.09	0.09
UCLA	P12	0.17	0.17	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.17	0.17	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.15	0.15	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.15	0.15	67.65	67.65	0.05	0.05
Pacific	BW	0.15	0.15	32.14	32.14	-0.05	-0.05
Fresno St.	WAC	0.15	0.15	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Santa Clara	WCC	0.15	0.15	21.43	21.43	-0.08	-0.08
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.15	0.15	64.29	64.29	0.04	0.04
Stanford	P12	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.13	0.13	81.25	81.25	0.08	0.08
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.13	0.13	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
South Dakota	Sum	0.12	0.12	28.00	28.00	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.10	0.10	23.08	23.08	-0.05	-0.05
Oakland	Sum	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Boise St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.09	0.09	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Morehead St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Southern California	P12	0.08	0.08	18.75	18.75	-0.05	-0.05
Iowa St.	B12	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Western Carolina	SC	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	19.23	19.23	-0.04	-0.04
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	29.63	29.63	-0.03	-0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	96.43	96.43	0.06	0.06
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	6.90	6.90	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.06	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	34.62	34.62	-0.02	-0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Washington	P12	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.03	-0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	86.21	86.21	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.03	-0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	64.29	64.29	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.93	25.93	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Longwood	ind	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	83.87	83.87	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	B12	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01