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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Weber St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:175.7
Current RPI:246
Expected SOS:253
Current SOS:173
Current Record:1-4
Expected Record:15-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-5
Current OOC Record:1-4
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:214
Expected OOC SOS:84



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-559.50.02%
21-671.70.15%
20-785.40.84%
19-897.82.49%
18-9114.26.51%
17-10132.211.92%
16-11150.516.83%
15-12171.119.11%
14-13193.216.63%
13-14214.812.20%
12-15235.07.75%
11-16255.93.69%
10-17275.31.20%
9-18289.90.47%
8-19306.80.13%
7-20309.50.04%
6-21329.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Weber St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Pepperdine (185.5)WCCA69-68L0%0.0
11-17Stanford (54.1)P12A67-49L0%0.0
11-24UC Davis (236.9)BWN86-58W100%0.0
11-25Iona (82.5)MAACN54-76L0%0.0
11-26Buffalo (138.0)MACN72-74L0%0.0
12-3Denver (270.4)SumH0-074%7.8
12-7BYU (66.1)WCCA0-015%-12.4
12-17Utah Valley (129.4)WACH0-060%3.1
12-21Utah St. (105.4)MWCA0-027%-7.3
12-29Montana St. (178.9)BSkyA0-041%-2.6
12-31Montana (251.5)BSkyA0-049%-0.4
1-7Idaho St. (276.7)BSkyA0-066%5.0
1-12Idaho (235.9)BSkyH0-071%6.7
1-14Eastern Washington (219.8)BSkyH0-075%8.0
1-19North Dakota (231.9)BSkyA0-049%-0.2
1-21Northern Colorado (274.9)BSkyA0-063%3.9
1-27Idaho St. (276.7)BSkyH0-082%11.1
2-2Southern Utah (331.3)BSkyH0-090%15.1
2-4Northern Arizona (330.5)BSkyH0-089%14.9
2-9Sacramento St. (337.5)BSkyA0-080%10.0
2-11Portland St. (293.2)BSkyA0-065%4.7
2-16Northern Colorado (274.9)BSkyH0-080%10.0
2-18North Dakota (231.9)BSkyH0-069%6.0
2-23Eastern Washington (219.8)BSkyA0-056%1.8
2-25Idaho (235.9)BSkyA0-052%0.5
3-2Montana (251.5)BSkyH0-069%5.8
3-4Montana St. (178.9)BSkyH0-062%3.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Weber St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Weber St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Weber St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Weber St.BSky29.1726.3523.8157.18-15.283.78
Idaho St.BSky0.004.7314.2930.10-0.00-1.88
IdahoBSky0.004.6140.0051.85-0.000.17
MontanaBSky0.004.6014.2947.86-0.00-0.20
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.004.5966.6752.700.000.25
Montana St.BSky0.004.5650.0063.500.001.23
Northern ColoradoBSky0.004.5316.6741.66-0.00-0.76
North DakotaBSky0.004.4933.3354.38-0.000.39
Sacramento St.BSky0.712.840.0021.33-0.71-1.63
Northern ArizonaBSky0.712.8314.2928.75-0.51-1.20
Portland St.BSky0.832.8125.0040.59-0.42-0.53
Southern UtahBSky0.002.790.0023.72-0.00-1.47
DenverSum0.002.0533.3341.66-0.00-0.34
BYUWCC0.002.0571.4368.120.000.74
Utah ValleyWAC0.002.0460.0059.720.000.40
UC DavisBW10.002.0266.6750.133.330.01
PepperdineWCC10.002.0140.0032.91-2.00-0.69
Utah St.MWC0.001.9850.0052.840.000.11
StanfordP1210.001.9271.4357.644.290.29
BuffaloMAC10.001.8525.0049.16-5.00-0.03
IonaMAAC10.001.8550.0069.150.000.71
Washington St.P120.000.2950.0036.820.00-0.08
South DakotaSum0.000.2957.1447.220.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.2620.0042.63-0.00-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.000.260.0033.43-0.00-0.09
San FranciscoWCC0.000.2683.3350.740.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.710.2537.5036.24-0.18-0.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.2450.0061.810.000.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.2450.0059.670.000.05
San Jose St.MWC0.000.2340.0037.44-0.00-0.06
WyomingMWC0.000.2260.0048.590.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.2014.2937.52-0.00-0.05
ColoradoP120.000.1971.4359.850.000.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1933.3345.60-0.00-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.620.1783.3361.490.420.04
UtahP120.000.1675.0061.040.000.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.620.1616.6743.29-0.42-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.830.1666.6756.360.280.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.16100.0091.060.000.13
PortlandWCC0.000.1660.0057.170.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.1650.0049.010.00-0.00
NevadaMWC3.000.1675.0070.471.500.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.620.16100.0089.040.620.12
San DiegoWCC0.000.1528.5727.50-0.00-0.07
USCP120.000.15100.0075.380.000.08
ArizonaP120.000.1385.7170.990.000.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1316.6730.02-0.00-0.05
Little RockSB0.830.1360.0057.900.170.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.1350.0042.710.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.1350.0058.980.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.1371.4358.670.000.02
UNLVMWC0.000.1371.4349.590.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1333.3348.73-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.000.1342.8650.32-0.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1233.3333.15-0.00-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.000.120.0019.30-0.00-0.08
OregonP120.000.1271.4366.730.000.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1125.0024.28-0.00-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1042.8645.30-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.1057.1436.050.00-0.03
Texas TechB120.000.1085.7163.780.000.03
UC IrvineBW0.000.1050.0054.690.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.1050.0052.330.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.830.1033.3335.92-0.28-0.03
CaliforniaP120.000.1083.3363.610.000.03
IUPUISum0.000.1028.5747.72-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.100.0039.35-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1066.6761.340.000.02
XavierBE1.000.10100.0074.801.000.05
OhioMAC0.000.0980.0068.320.000.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.090.0033.44-0.00-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0933.3341.52-0.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC1.000.0916.6727.03-0.67-0.04
IowaB100.000.0742.8644.33-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0714.2931.71-0.00-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0740.0057.49-0.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0771.4355.750.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.0017.30-0.00-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0750.0056.260.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0771.4368.100.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0771.4356.050.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0728.5728.46-0.00-0.03
BucknellPat0.000.0775.0067.660.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.07100.0075.690.000.04
OklahomaB120.000.0783.3351.920.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0742.8638.05-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0750.0058.600.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0775.0074.990.000.03
Indiana St.MVC0.620.0633.3346.81-0.21-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0633.3343.64-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5750.20-0.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0616.6736.35-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8646.78-0.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0666.6770.930.000.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.940.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0028.15-0.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0650.0051.820.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0660.0043.970.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0650.0033.010.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0620.0041.93-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0650.0052.140.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0671.4366.220.000.02
OaklandHorz0.710.0683.3378.430.480.04
Oregon St.P120.000.0628.5723.76-0.00-0.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0685.7169.010.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.830.0666.6770.740.280.03
TexasB120.000.0650.0036.240.00-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0022.69-0.00-0.03
WisconsinB100.000.0675.0073.840.000.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.710.0683.3370.360.480.03
WashingtonP120.000.0657.1452.630.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0628.5739.44-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0018.22-0.00-0.04
DrakeMVC1.710.060.0021.30-1.71-0.04
Saint LouisA100.000.0633.3326.75-0.00-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7174.430.000.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0683.3362.080.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0633.3338.19-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0642.8635.68-0.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0671.4346.010.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0671.4371.570.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0671.4350.570.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0616.6734.31-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0047.990.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0660.0052.760.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0628.5750.51-0.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0325.0053.29-0.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.0350.0043.610.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0360.0039.610.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0325.0030.93-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0371.4374.450.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0340.0061.37-0.000.01
CreightonBE1.000.03100.0076.651.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0055.850.000.00
HarvardIvy0.620.030.0043.04-0.62-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.480.000.01
KansasB120.000.0385.7176.170.000.02
MaineAE0.000.0316.6725.61-0.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.620.0371.4365.740.270.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0385.7155.550.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0039.28-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.620.0371.4354.520.270.00
SMUAmer0.000.0357.1469.300.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0383.3361.150.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.100.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0342.8650.36-0.000.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0083.550.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.45-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0314.2934.56-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0350.0050.290.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0357.1447.320.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.000.0340.0040.65-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0320.0034.22-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC1.000.0385.7162.410.710.01
IllinoisB100.000.0357.1442.660.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.95-0.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0350.0054.490.000.00