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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Weber St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:185.0
Current RPI:185
Expected SOS:264
Current SOS:264
Current Record:17-13
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-5
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:220
Expected OOC SOS:162



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-13185.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Weber St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Pepperdine (245.0)WCCA69-68L0%0.0
11-17Stanford (100.0)P12A67-49L0%0.0
11-24UC Davis (166.0)BWN86-58W100%0.0
11-25Iona (89.0)MAACN54-76L0%0.0
11-26Buffalo (146.0)MACN72-74L0%0.0
12-3Denver (207.0)SumH55-57L0%0.0
12-7BYU (65.0)WCCA77-66L0%0.0
12-17Utah Valley (206.0)WACH93-85W100%0.0
12-21Utah St. (181.0)MWCA71-77W100%0.0
12-29Montana St. (253.0)BSkyA75-87W100%0.0
12-31Montana (221.0)BSkyA81-84W100%0.0
1-12Idaho (209.0)BSkyH91-66W100%0.0
1-14Eastern Washington (148.0)BSkyH70-67W100%0.0
1-19North Dakota (144.0)BSkyA83-77L0%0.0
1-21Northern Colorado (286.0)BSkyA69-74W100%0.0
1-25Idaho St. (340.0)BSkyA73-85W100%0.0
1-27Idaho St. (340.0)BSkyH96-74W100%0.0
2-2Southern Utah (341.0)BSkyH90-74W100%0.0
2-4Northern Arizona (335.0)BSkyH86-80W100%0.0
2-9Sacramento St. (293.0)BSkyA77-74L0%0.0
2-11Portland St. (268.0)BSkyA93-96W100%0.0
2-16Northern Colorado (286.0)BSkyH69-63W100%0.0
2-18North Dakota (144.0)BSkyH68-77L0%0.0
2-23Eastern Washington (148.0)BSkyA82-72L0%0.0
2-25Idaho (209.0)BSkyA83-78L0%0.0
3-2Montana (221.0)BSkyH74-78L0%0.0
3-4Montana St. (253.0)BSkyH76-67W100%0.0
3-9Southern Utah (341.0)BSkyN90-70W100%0.0
3-10Eastern Washington (148.0)BSkyN72-80W100%0.0
3-11North Dakota (144.0)BSkyN93-89L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Weber St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Weber St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Weber St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Weber St.BSky26.5126.5158.7058.704.614.61
Eastern WashingtonBSky5.875.8767.8667.862.102.10
North DakotaBSky5.855.8564.0064.001.641.64
IdahoBSky4.394.3955.5655.560.490.49
Idaho St.BSky4.384.3814.2914.29-3.13-3.13
Southern UtahBSky4.304.3013.7913.79-3.11-3.11
MontanaBSky4.274.2750.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky4.234.2350.0050.000.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky4.174.1736.0036.00-1.17-1.17
Sacramento St.BSky2.792.7935.7135.71-0.80-0.80
Portland St.BSky2.742.7444.4444.44-0.30-0.30
Northern ArizonaBSky2.692.6926.6726.67-1.25-1.25
DenverSum1.871.8751.7251.720.060.06
BYUWCC1.841.8465.6265.620.570.57
Utah ValleyWAC1.831.8344.4444.44-0.20-0.20
UC DavisBW1.811.8164.5264.520.530.53
PepperdineWCC1.801.8024.1424.14-0.93-0.93
Utah St.MWC1.781.7844.8344.83-0.18-0.18
StanfordP121.721.7241.3841.38-0.30-0.30
BuffaloMAC1.671.6748.2848.28-0.06-0.06
IonaMAAC1.671.6763.6463.640.450.45
SeattleWAC0.330.3337.0437.04-0.09-0.09
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.260.2667.8667.860.090.09
North Dakota St.Sum0.260.2660.7160.710.060.06
Washington St.P120.250.2540.0040.00-0.05-0.05
South DakotaSum0.250.2564.5264.520.070.07
San Jose St.MWC0.250.2542.8642.86-0.04-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.250.2561.2961.290.060.06
UC RiversideBW0.220.2222.2222.22-0.12-0.12
Santa ClaraWCC0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.210.2148.2848.28-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
ColoradoP120.190.1956.2556.250.020.02
WyomingMWC0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
PacificWCC0.160.1631.2531.25-0.06-0.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.160.1651.7251.720.010.01
NevadaMWC0.160.1682.3582.350.100.10
Saint Mary'sWCC0.160.1687.5087.500.120.12
Colorado St.MWC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
UtahP120.140.1462.0762.070.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.140.1496.9796.970.130.13
PortlandWCC0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1435.7135.71-0.04-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
USCP120.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
ArizonaP120.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
Arizona St.P120.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
IUPUISum0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
NJITASun0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1129.4129.41-0.04-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
OregonP120.110.1184.8584.850.080.08
Cal PolyBW0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
IowaB100.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
North FloridaASun0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Texas TechB120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
CaliforniaP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
BryantNEC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
NorthwesternB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
TexasB120.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0818.5218.52-0.05-0.05
RiderMAAC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
SienaMAAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
BucknellPat0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
ButlerBE0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
OklahomaB120.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
UMKCWAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.060.0628.1228.12-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
RiceCUSA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
WashingtonP120.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
MaineAE0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
SMUAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00