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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


Weber St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:139.2
Current RPI:156
Expected SOS:308
Current SOS:303
Current Record:14-7
Expected Record:20-8
Current Conf Record:9-2
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-4
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:140
Expected OOC SOS:139



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-7115.117.03%
20-8131.137.01%
19-9147.630.04%
18-10164.113.00%
17-11181.22.55%
16-12196.30.33%
15-13216.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Weber St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Utah St. (153.2)MWCH70-73L0%0.0
11-16South Dakota St. (44.1)SumA85-68L0%0.0
11-23Central Michigan (143.0)MACN63-60W100%0.0
11-24Drake (302.7)MVCN74-58W100%0.0
11-25Murray St. (180.5)OVCN75-59W100%0.0
12-5BYU (69.9)WCCN73-68L0%0.0
12-9Utah Valley (259.4)WACA84-81L0%0.0
12-13Denver (209.1)SumA69-68L0%0.0
12-18Portland (244.4)WCCA82-92W100%0.0
12-22South Dakota St. (44.1)SumH99-95W100%0.0
1-2Idaho St. (265.6)BSkyH77-56W100%0.0
1-7North Dakota (219.7)BSkyH74-62W100%0.0
1-9Northern Colorado (310.6)BSkyH85-68W100%0.0
1-14Portland St. (288.9)BSkyA58-73W100%0.0
1-16Sacramento St. (254.4)BSkyA74-85W100%0.0
1-23Idaho St. (265.6)BSkyA69-68L0%0.0
1-28Northern Arizona (325.2)BSkyH76-66W100%0.0
1-30Southern Utah (335.7)BSkyH77-50W100%0.0
2-4Northern Colorado (310.6)BSkyA54-64W100%0.0
2-6North Dakota (219.7)BSkyA78-71L0%0.0
2-11Sacramento St. (254.4)BSkyH63-50W100%0.0
2-13Portland St. (288.9)BSkyH0-088%12.9
2-18Southern Utah (335.7)BSkyA0-093%16.0
2-20Northern Arizona (325.2)BSkyA0-093%15.7
2-25Montana St. (252.7)BSkyH0-086%11.8
2-27Montana (145.6)BSkyH0-072%6.2
3-3Idaho (223.1)BSkyA0-065%4.0
3-5Eastern Washington (202.2)BSkyA0-057%1.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Weber St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Weber St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Weber St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Weber St.BSky26.7126.4370.3373.4610.8612.40
Idaho St.BSky5.774.6247.3747.90-0.30-0.19
Northern ColoradoBSky5.274.3930.0028.49-2.11-1.89
Southern UtahBSky2.834.3915.0015.83-1.98-3.00
Portland St.BSky2.894.3831.5838.32-1.07-1.02
Sacramento St.BSky5.044.3844.4448.81-0.56-0.10
Northern ArizonaBSky2.784.3510.0012.75-2.22-3.24
North DakotaBSky5.214.3544.4447.99-0.58-0.17
South Dakota St.Sum4.863.6376.1976.542.541.93
Montana St.BSky0.812.8143.4845.92-0.11-0.23
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.802.8054.5556.010.070.34
IdahoBSky0.742.7756.5256.030.100.33
MontanaBSky0.752.7760.0064.080.150.78
DenverSum2.872.1150.0047.490.00-0.11
PortlandWCC2.722.0440.0039.35-0.54-0.43
Utah ValleyWAC2.702.0430.0032.35-1.08-0.72
BYUWCC2.601.9466.6769.230.870.75
Utah St.MWC2.601.9145.0047.32-0.26-0.10
Central MichiganMAC2.431.8250.0051.220.000.04
DrakeMVC2.381.7921.7424.11-1.35-0.92
Murray St.OVC2.381.7950.0052.860.000.10
North Dakota St.Sum0.440.4260.8759.830.100.08
South DakotaSum0.270.2944.0043.56-0.03-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.410.2858.3358.580.070.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.170.2666.6767.660.060.09
IUPUISum0.360.2638.4638.50-0.08-0.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.340.2314.2915.47-0.24-0.16
UC DavisBW0.340.2338.1035.34-0.08-0.07
Washington St.P120.230.2334.7831.64-0.07-0.08
GonzagaWCC0.200.2279.1777.510.110.12
Saint Mary'sWCC0.250.2281.8281.780.160.14
PepperdineWCC0.290.2258.3360.910.050.05
PacificWCC0.260.2223.8125.99-0.14-0.10
SeattleWAC0.180.2045.4543.98-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.220.2060.8760.430.050.04
NevadaMWC0.170.1957.1455.350.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.060.1923.8122.85-0.03-0.10
IPFWSum0.150.1970.8368.650.060.07
Oral RobertsSum0.150.1941.6742.39-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.200.1931.5832.03-0.07-0.07
San FranciscoWCC0.190.1952.1749.150.01-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.170.1783.3382.090.120.11
Bowling GreenMAC0.280.1650.0045.860.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.210.1628.5732.73-0.09-0.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.160.1633.3330.63-0.05-0.06
Northern IowaMVC0.270.1656.0055.450.030.02
Colorado St.MWC0.210.1654.5552.530.020.01
UtahP120.220.1670.8368.530.090.06
Illinois St.MVC0.250.1656.0054.080.030.01
San DiegoWCC0.090.1530.4328.20-0.04-0.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.190.1533.3332.04-0.06-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.220.1350.0052.880.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.160.1316.6719.49-0.11-0.08
BradleyMVC0.170.1312.0011.95-0.13-0.10
Austin PeayOVC0.160.1340.0042.85-0.03-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.170.1331.8230.08-0.06-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.220.1324.0024.16-0.11-0.07
WyomingMWC0.100.1343.4842.54-0.01-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.1273.0872.610.070.06
ColoradoP120.200.1270.8365.570.080.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.190.1241.6741.18-0.03-0.02
UTSACUSA0.110.1013.0412.96-0.08-0.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1050.0049.320.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.110.1052.1755.080.000.01
KansasB120.110.1082.6179.210.070.06
Air ForceMWC0.100.1043.4837.80-0.01-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.1086.3684.240.040.07
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.160.1068.1867.730.060.03
New MexicoMWC0.160.1058.3360.710.030.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.160.1060.8762.470.030.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.1043.4843.76-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.100.0972.0073.080.040.04
Missouri St.MVC0.110.0937.5037.41-0.03-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0960.0057.680.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.160.0945.8341.64-0.01-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.060.074.357.71-0.05-0.06
Kansas St.B120.120.0758.3356.290.020.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.0765.2268.610.030.03
WisconsinB100.120.0762.5056.990.030.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.0730.4332.24-0.05-0.02
ArizonaP120.060.0780.0078.730.030.04
Arizona St.P120.120.0756.0053.630.010.00
ButlerBE0.060.0770.8368.990.020.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0739.1341.06-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0763.6461.560.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.060.0759.0961.290.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.120.0755.5652.480.010.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0743.4850.67-0.010.00
San Diego St.MWC0.110.0769.5770.090.040.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0713.0415.26-0.04-0.05
StanfordP120.120.0747.6244.07-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0750.0050.500.000.00
TulsaAmer0.060.0766.6764.730.020.02
AkronMAC0.110.0682.6181.130.070.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.0660.8757.170.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.0621.7422.78-0.06-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.0640.0043.21-0.02-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.0650.0049.890.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.110.0630.0029.17-0.05-0.03
MinnesotaB100.100.0625.0027.25-0.05-0.03
TCUB120.100.0645.8339.36-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.100.0660.8755.310.020.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0660.8762.070.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.0645.4551.69-0.010.00
UMBCAE0.110.0623.0825.89-0.06-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0631.8232.68-0.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.100.0668.0066.640.040.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0654.1754.420.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.0645.4546.07-0.01-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.100.0650.0049.490.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0645.8343.78-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.100.0673.9176.700.050.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.0635.0034.87-0.03-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.060.0379.1776.000.030.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0377.2773.930.030.02
WashingtonP120.000.0362.5060.140.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0336.8442.87-0.01-0.00
DukeACC0.060.0375.0071.810.030.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0359.0955.160.010.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0370.8367.980.020.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0352.1753.440.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0368.1865.190.020.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0365.2264.330.020.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0369.5770.020.020.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0354.1753.810.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.0361.9058.180.000.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0336.3638.95-0.02-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0365.2260.710.020.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0322.2231.13-0.03-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.060.0334.7832.89-0.02-0.01
OhioMAC0.060.0365.2263.630.020.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0372.7367.600.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0345.4554.18-0.010.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0331.8234.54-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0368.1867.120.020.01
DePaulBE0.050.0333.3334.02-0.02-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0385.0083.450.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.039.5210.67-0.04-0.02
IowaB100.050.0379.1778.890.030.02
LipscombASun0.050.0328.0030.50-0.02-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0331.8232.47-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0340.0041.68-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0336.3636.29-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0368.0064.070.000.01
TroySB0.000.0322.7324.37-0.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0336.0034.84-0.01-0.01
USCP120.000.0375.0071.140.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0340.0040.34-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0338.1039.12-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0347.8351.93-0.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0320.0022.24-0.03-0.02