live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Weber St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:108.0
Current RPI:108
Expected SOS:288
Current SOS:288
Current Record:23-8
Expected Record:23-8
Current Conf Record:18-3
Expected Conf Record:18-3
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:18-3
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:143
Expected OOC SOS:141



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-8108.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Weber St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Utah St. (151.0)MWCH70-73L0%0.0
11-16South Dakota St. (29.0)SumA85-68L0%0.0
11-23Central Michigan (156.0)MACN63-60W100%0.0
11-24Drake (325.0)MVCN74-58W100%0.0
11-25Murray St. (169.0)OVCN75-59W100%0.0
12-5BYU (76.0)WCCN73-68L0%0.0
12-9Utah Valley (272.0)WACA84-81L0%0.0
12-13Denver (188.0)SumA69-68L0%0.0
12-18Portland (249.0)WCCA82-92W100%0.0
12-22South Dakota St. (29.0)SumH99-95W100%0.0
1-2Idaho St. (256.0)BSkyH77-56W100%0.0
1-7North Dakota (218.0)BSkyH74-62W100%0.0
1-9Northern Colorado (304.0)BSkyH85-68W100%0.0
1-14Portland St. (282.0)BSkyA58-73W100%0.0
1-16Sacramento St. (273.0)BSkyA74-85W100%0.0
1-23Idaho St. (256.0)BSkyA69-68L0%0.0
1-28Northern Arizona (333.0)BSkyH76-66W100%0.0
1-30Southern Utah (336.0)BSkyH77-50W100%0.0
2-4Northern Colorado (304.0)BSkyA54-64W100%0.0
2-6North Dakota (218.0)BSkyA78-71L0%0.0
2-11Sacramento St. (273.0)BSkyH63-50W100%0.0
2-13Portland St. (282.0)BSkyH87-78W100%0.0
2-18Southern Utah (336.0)BSkyA83-87W100%0.0
2-20Northern Arizona (333.0)BSkyA74-77W100%0.0
2-25Montana St. (260.0)BSkyH68-60W100%0.0
2-27Montana (145.0)BSkyH60-54W100%0.0
3-3Idaho (191.0)BSkyA62-58L0%0.0
3-5Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyA77-79W100%0.0
3-10Portland St. (282.0)BSkyN78-74W100%0.0
3-11North Dakota (218.0)BSkyN83-78W100%0.0
3-12Montana (145.0)BSkyN62-59W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Weber St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Weber St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Weber St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Weber St.BSky26.5826.5878.4278.4215.1115.11
North DakotaBSky5.705.7050.0050.000.000.00
Portland St.BSky5.675.6742.3142.31-0.87-0.87
Idaho St.BSky4.344.3448.1548.15-0.16-0.16
MontanaBSky4.264.2666.6766.671.421.42
Northern ColoradoBSky4.144.1429.6329.63-1.69-1.69
Sacramento St.BSky4.144.1444.4444.44-0.46-0.46
Southern UtahBSky4.114.1115.3815.38-2.85-2.85
Northern ArizonaBSky4.034.0311.5411.54-3.10-3.10
South Dakota St.Sum3.303.3079.3179.311.941.94
Montana St.BSky2.702.7044.8344.83-0.28-0.28
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.702.7051.7251.720.090.09
IdahoBSky2.672.6760.0060.000.530.53
DenverSum1.941.9450.0050.000.000.00
PortlandWCC1.861.8636.6736.67-0.50-0.50
Utah ValleyWAC1.831.8330.7730.77-0.70-0.70
BYUWCC1.751.7567.7467.740.620.62
Utah St.MWC1.721.7246.4346.43-0.12-0.12
Central MichiganMAC1.641.6450.0050.000.000.00
DrakeMVC1.611.6120.6920.69-0.95-0.95
Murray St.OVC1.611.6153.5753.570.120.12
North Dakota St.Sum0.460.4658.0658.060.070.07
GonzagaWCC0.270.2778.1278.120.150.15
Nebraska OmahaSum0.260.2655.1755.170.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.250.2572.4172.410.110.11
South DakotaSum0.240.2440.0040.00-0.05-0.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.230.2318.5218.52-0.14-0.14
Washington St.P120.220.2226.6726.67-0.10-0.10
IUPUISum0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.210.2156.6756.670.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.210.2141.3841.38-0.04-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.190.1960.0060.000.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.190.1943.7543.75-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.190.1932.1432.14-0.07-0.07
NevadaMWC0.190.1956.6756.670.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.190.1921.4321.43-0.11-0.11
Saint Mary'sWCC0.190.1983.8783.870.130.13
PacificWCC0.180.1823.0823.08-0.10-0.10
San FranciscoWCC0.180.1848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.170.1779.3179.310.100.10
SeattleWAC0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.170.1732.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.170.1728.5728.57-0.07-0.07
Northern IowaMVC0.160.1663.6463.640.040.04
IPFWSum0.160.1670.9770.970.070.07
Western IllinoisSum0.160.1629.1729.17-0.07-0.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1421.4321.43-0.08-0.08
UtahP120.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
Colorado St.MWC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.140.1412.9012.90-0.10-0.10
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1455.1755.170.010.01
WyomingMWC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.07-0.07
KansasB120.110.1187.8887.880.080.08
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
ColoradoP120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.090.0913.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
WisconsinB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.060.063.453.45-0.06-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
ArizonaP120.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
ButlerBE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Arizona St.P120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0611.1111.11-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
UMBCAE0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.01-0.01