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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Weber St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:168.8
Current RPI:231
Expected SOS:314
Current SOS:254
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:17-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-3
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:5-3
Expected OOC RPI:159
Expected OOC SOS:199



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-257.30.06%
23-366.10.27%
22-479.60.88%
21-592.93.37%
20-6111.78.18%
19-7128.613.21%
18-8149.918.05%
17-9170.918.26%
16-10192.316.50%
15-11213.510.98%
14-12234.56.35%
13-13256.22.51%
12-14274.00.98%
11-15290.30.31%
10-16305.00.06%
9-17326.00.01%
8-18319.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Weber St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Utah St. (127.2)MWCH65-59W100%0.0
11-17Iona (89.3)MAACN72-80L0%0.0
11-18James Madison (261.3)CAAN73-65W100%0.0
11-30Fresno St. (87.8)MWCA0-023%-8.7
12-6Utah Valley (141.8)WACA0-040%-3.0
12-9BYU (78.8)WCCN0-026%-7.7
12-16Arkansas Pine Bluff (338.7)SWACH0-095%20.2
12-19Pepperdine (239.9)WCCH0-073%7.5
12-30Idaho St. (322.1)BSkyH0-088%14.2
1-4Northern Arizona (302.6)BSkyH0-089%14.8
1-6Southern Utah (304.1)BSkyH0-088%14.2
1-11Northern Colorado (254.9)BSkyA0-062%3.8
1-13North Dakota (191.6)BSkyA0-053%0.8
1-18Sacramento St. (264.8)BSkyH0-082%10.8
1-20Portland St. (196.7)BSkyH0-073%7.4
1-27Idaho St. (322.1)BSkyA0-075%8.2
2-1Southern Utah (304.1)BSkyA0-075%8.2
2-3Northern Arizona (302.6)BSkyA0-077%8.8
2-8North Dakota (191.6)BSkyH0-072%6.8
2-10Northern Colorado (254.9)BSkyH0-079%9.8
2-15Portland St. (196.7)BSkyA0-055%1.4
2-17Sacramento St. (264.8)BSkyA0-066%4.8
2-22Eastern Washington (169.9)BSkyH0-067%5.1
2-24Idaho (171.6)BSkyH0-063%4.1
3-1Montana (169.4)BSkyA0-041%-2.7
3-3Montana St. (223.7)BSkyA0-053%0.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Weber St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Weber St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Weber St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Weber St.BSky31.9426.3961.5466.807.378.87
Idaho St.BSky0.004.890.0028.980.00-2.06
North DakotaBSky0.004.7566.6747.520.00-0.24
Northern ColoradoBSky0.004.7233.3339.630.00-0.98
Southern UtahBSky0.004.7233.3327.810.00-2.09
Portland St.BSky0.004.72100.0049.130.00-0.08
Sacramento St.BSky0.004.690.0034.510.00-1.45
Northern ArizonaBSky0.004.690.0025.000.00-2.35
Montana St.BSky2.083.0433.3350.47-0.690.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.002.9833.3352.240.000.13
MontanaBSky0.002.9750.0060.180.000.61
IdahoBSky0.002.9750.0061.330.000.67
Utah St.MWC16.672.1366.6751.925.560.08
BYUWCC0.002.1366.6767.110.000.73
PepperdineWCC0.002.130.0032.110.00-0.76
Utah ValleyWAC0.002.0950.0060.450.000.44
Fresno St.MWC0.002.0550.0059.450.000.39
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.002.030.0024.530.00-1.03
IonaMAAC16.671.920.0058.33-16.670.32
James MadisonCAA16.671.920.0032.95-16.67-0.66
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.340.0042.340.00-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.310.0040.830.00-0.06
UNLVMWC0.000.31100.0064.720.000.09
PortlandWCC0.000.270.0029.710.00-0.11
UC DavisBW0.000.2466.6757.400.000.04
San Jose St.MWC0.000.240.0021.010.00-0.14
Boise St.MWC0.000.24100.0066.490.000.08
WyomingMWC0.000.24100.0057.360.000.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.2366.6756.400.000.03
GonzagaWCC2.080.23100.0086.182.080.17
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.210.0042.670.00-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2050.0034.730.00-0.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.20100.0088.360.000.15
San DiegoWCC0.000.20100.0052.950.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.1833.3331.840.00-0.06
SeattleWAC0.000.1833.3350.150.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.170.0027.250.00-0.08
South DakotaSum0.000.1766.6767.630.000.06
NevadaMWC0.000.17100.0078.910.000.10
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1766.6742.170.00-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1750.0062.630.000.04
Air ForceMWC0.000.16100.0044.740.00-0.02
PacificWCC0.000.160.0033.520.00-0.05
Arizona St.P120.000.14100.0062.760.000.04
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1450.0051.070.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1433.3353.520.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.1433.3350.220.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.13100.0053.460.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.1350.0050.570.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.080.120.0018.97-2.08-0.08
DukeACC0.000.11100.0083.580.000.07
OregonP120.000.11100.0076.200.000.06
Washington St.P120.000.11100.0041.780.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.110.0048.610.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.1033.3353.300.000.01
DenverSum0.000.100.0038.100.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.1066.6742.260.00-0.02
TroySB0.000.1033.3346.410.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.1050.0049.480.00-0.00
UtahP120.000.10100.0067.160.000.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1050.0051.840.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1033.3346.330.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0050.360.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0766.6740.170.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.070.0047.180.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.070.0035.130.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.007.670.00-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.07100.0075.130.000.04
IowaB100.000.07100.0058.250.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0750.0077.820.000.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0750.0069.320.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.070.0026.150.00-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0750.0035.330.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.07100.0083.700.000.05
Cal PolyBW0.000.0733.3338.050.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.07100.0052.860.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0067.460.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0750.0065.140.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.070.0048.070.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.070.0029.630.00-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.070.0029.620.00-0.03
Kansas St.B120.000.07100.0062.930.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0766.6740.070.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.070.0035.760.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0766.6761.500.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0766.6728.760.00-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.070.0034.600.00-0.02
StanfordP120.000.0775.0049.860.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.000.0750.0046.810.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0766.6768.790.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0750.0048.680.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0733.3339.360.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0733.3350.840.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0775.0056.120.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.07100.0055.280.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0766.6759.740.000.01
Northern KentuckyHorz4.860.07100.0070.964.860.03
RiderMAAC0.000.0766.6755.210.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0733.3348.640.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.070.0037.060.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0750.0066.710.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0750.0050.360.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0733.3335.210.00-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0766.6754.900.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0022.610.00-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0026.180.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0037.120.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.770.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.060.0044.500.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0033.850.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0044.630.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0450.0043.710.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0433.3353.190.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0475.0071.830.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0433.3338.350.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0071.180.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0375.0071.560.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0325.0038.080.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0051.900.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.03100.0063.590.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.03100.0060.010.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0059.540.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0023.260.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.03100.0060.400.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0333.3334.560.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.03100.0071.010.000.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0064.910.000.01
AlbanyAE2.080.03100.0072.512.080.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.030.0028.720.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.030.0045.640.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.030.0044.950.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.030.0024.970.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.03100.0080.230.000.02
George MasonA100.000.0375.0048.930.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.03100.0048.790.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.000.030.0023.830.00-0.02
NJITASun0.000.0333.3333.210.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0333.3348.480.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA2.780.0375.0072.951.390.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0325.0032.490.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0350.0073.230.000.02
RichmondA100.000.030.0030.280.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0054.590.000.00
SyracuseACC2.080.03100.0062.242.080.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0333.3330.460.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0325.0054.930.000.00
New HampshireAE0.000.030.0048.110.00-0.00
ValparaisoMVC0.000.03100.0059.760.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0061.320.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0333.3352.000.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0042.160.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.030.0051.010.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.03100.0071.560.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0082.350.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.03100.0076.260.000.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0325.0050.070.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0333.3346.090.00-0.00