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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


Weber St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:178.7
Current RPI:217
Expected SOS:221
Current SOS:141
Current Record:1-3
Expected Record:15-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-3
Current OOC Record:1-3
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:186
Expected OOC SOS:66



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-550.00.01%
21-671.30.15%
20-784.10.50%
19-897.62.48%
18-9115.75.11%
17-10133.210.58%
16-11151.016.10%
15-12170.118.24%
14-13189.917.92%
13-14210.913.56%
12-15232.48.48%
11-16252.94.18%
10-17273.71.92%
9-18288.10.53%
8-19303.20.19%
7-20318.00.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Weber St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Utah St. (117.6)MWCA72-61L0%0.0
11-21Illinois St. (66.2)MVCN64-73L0%0.0
11-22LSU (88.5)SECN72-58L0%0.0
11-24Nevada (181.0)MWCN59-56W100%0.0
12-1Oral Roberts (238.3)SumH0-074%7.5
12-6UT Arlington (160.4)SBA0-045%-1.5
12-13BYU (35.5)WCCH0-025%-8.0
12-20Utah Valley (210.8)WACH0-073%7.4
12-22Oklahoma (66.6)B12A0-012%-13.8
1-1Eastern Washington (69.0)BSkyA0-020%-10.1
1-3Idaho (227.1)BSkyA0-050%0.0
1-8Montana (177.9)BSkyH0-066%4.8
1-10Montana St. (308.5)BSkyH0-089%14.7
1-15Northern Arizona (205.4)BSkyA0-044%-1.7
1-17Southern Utah (332.8)BSkyA0-077%9.0
1-22Portland St. (217.2)BSkyH0-074%7.7
1-24Sacramento St. (223.4)BSkyH0-076%8.4
1-29North Dakota (219.5)BSkyA0-050%-0.1
1-31Northern Colorado (221.9)BSkyA0-047%-0.8
2-7Idaho St. (308.4)BSkyA0-069%5.8
2-12Southern Utah (332.8)BSkyH0-091%16.2
2-14Northern Arizona (205.4)BSkyH0-068%5.5
2-19Montana St. (308.5)BSkyA0-073%7.5
2-21Montana (177.9)BSkyA0-042%-2.3
2-28Idaho St. (308.4)BSkyH0-086%13.0
3-5Idaho (227.1)BSkyH0-073%7.2
3-7Eastern Washington (69.0)BSkyH0-041%-2.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Weber St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Weber St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Weber St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Weber St.BSky30.9426.3627.7854.69-13.752.47
Idaho St.BSky0.004.740.0029.06-0.00-1.99
Montana St.BSky0.004.650.0022.01-0.00-2.60
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.004.6175.0074.310.002.24
IdahoBSky0.004.5733.3349.58-0.00-0.04
MontanaBSky0.004.5733.3351.75-0.000.16
Southern UtahBSky0.004.540.0020.54-0.00-2.68
Northern ArizonaBSky0.004.5120.0051.46-0.000.13
Sacramento St.BSky0.002.8650.0046.890.00-0.18
North DakotaBSky0.002.790.0044.67-0.00-0.30
Northern ColoradoBSky0.002.790.0051.15-0.000.06
Portland St.BSky0.002.79100.0049.850.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.002.2866.6751.520.000.07
Utah St.MWC14.062.0866.6759.704.690.40
NevadaMWC12.501.9233.3344.94-4.17-0.19
UT ArlingtonSB0.001.9260.0051.860.000.07
OklahomaB120.001.8966.6755.710.000.22
Oral RobertsSum0.001.8825.0037.00-0.00-0.49
BYUWCC0.001.8866.6769.060.000.72
Illinois St.MVC14.061.8833.3364.23-4.690.54
LSUSEC12.501.8550.0054.730.000.18
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.3433.3353.25-0.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.3080.0063.110.000.08
WyomingMWC0.000.29100.0067.780.000.10
SeattleWAC0.000.2425.0045.15-0.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.2466.6763.740.000.06
South DakotaSum0.000.240.0038.43-0.00-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.2350.0046.130.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.2340.0047.31-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.2033.3340.07-0.00-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.2020.0038.11-0.00-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.000.20100.0065.600.000.06
PortlandWCC0.000.20100.0050.900.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.2075.0050.770.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.190.0025.33-0.00-0.10
UC DavisBW0.000.17100.0042.270.00-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1750.0049.860.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.1775.0069.250.000.06
PacificWCC0.000.1733.3330.38-0.00-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.000.1660.0056.280.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1440.0067.55-0.000.05
Western IllinoisSum0.000.1425.0025.51-0.00-0.07
DenverSum0.000.1366.6766.590.000.04
Washington St.P120.000.1333.3329.16-0.00-0.06
Kansas St.B120.000.1360.0057.210.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1350.0041.110.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1350.0051.850.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.1333.3328.79-0.00-0.06
San Diego St.MWC0.000.13100.0087.570.000.10
Air ForceMWC0.000.1333.3345.79-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1333.3326.91-0.00-0.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.13100.0071.500.000.06
San Jose St.MWC0.000.130.0019.30-0.00-0.08
KentuckySEC0.000.13100.0089.550.000.10
MississippiSEC0.000.1275.0052.730.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.10100.0030.140.00-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.10100.0060.830.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.1066.6761.780.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.10100.0085.190.000.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1040.0044.83-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.10100.0055.960.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1025.0051.72-0.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC1.560.1033.3340.34-0.52-0.02
TexasB120.000.10100.0080.120.000.06
MissouriSEC0.000.1040.0036.72-0.00-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.1066.6751.550.000.00
DrakeMVC0.000.1025.0027.00-0.00-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.000.10100.0073.990.000.05
UCLAP120.000.10100.0065.220.000.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1050.0065.510.000.03
Texas TechB121.250.1075.0045.460.62-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.10100.0070.280.000.04
BradleyMVC0.000.1050.0030.030.00-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.000.070.0029.35-0.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0716.6731.76-0.00-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.0019.97-0.00-0.04
DavidsonA100.000.0750.0053.610.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0740.0031.23-0.00-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.0750.0030.040.00-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0725.0037.50-0.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.07100.0044.550.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0725.0046.58-0.00-0.00
USCP120.000.0750.0028.900.00-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0725.0033.31-0.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0775.0059.380.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0733.3367.26-0.000.02
BaylorB120.000.07100.0070.500.000.03
IndianaB100.000.0780.0058.080.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0775.0063.470.000.02
KansasB120.000.0766.6760.800.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0725.0052.70-0.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.07100.0055.110.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0775.0050.700.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.0740.0066.55-0.000.02
TCUB120.000.07100.0057.870.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.070.0038.95-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0766.6772.710.000.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.0766.6754.750.000.01
Seton HallBE3.120.06100.0065.623.120.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0081.020.000.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0650.0025.530.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0034.32-0.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0666.6762.900.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0050.520.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0650.0067.050.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0620.0045.09-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0675.0044.920.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0650.0064.410.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0666.6749.540.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0625.0047.03-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0038.65-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0035.37-0.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0640.0047.10-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0666.6746.170.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0640.0060.63-0.000.01
TroySB0.000.060.0042.64-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0083.950.000.04
XavierBE0.000.06100.0079.400.000.04
ClemsonACC2.810.0660.0052.120.560.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0680.0060.610.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC1.560.06100.0047.351.56-0.00
Old DominionCUSA2.810.0680.0074.571.690.03
UABCUSA0.000.0633.3344.17-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0650.0035.490.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0666.6771.550.000.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0043.100.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0675.0067.070.000.02
OregonP120.000.0460.0063.180.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.040.0032.89-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0031.74-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0075.900.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0059.500.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0360.0059.230.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0021.34-0.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0325.0031.38-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0350.0067.350.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0366.6744.530.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.030.0032.66-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0066.91-0.000.01
Cal PolyBW1.560.0350.0034.200.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0060.560.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0320.0022.51-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6754.720.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0350.0037.650.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6749.780.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0366.6759.490.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0047.30-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0028.11-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0380.0070.420.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0064.660.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0036.220.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0025.45-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0333.3368.48-0.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0366.6741.550.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0380.0073.820.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0340.0038.29-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0380.0058.990.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0340.0052.47-0.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth1.250.0340.0058.90-0.250.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0375.0055.820.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0046.74-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0340.0033.07-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0340.0050.32-0.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0366.6750.750.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0052.850.000.00