Weber St.

Conference:	BSky
Expected RPI:	84.0
Current RPI:	84
Expected SOS:	292
Current SOS:	292
Current Record:	24-6
Expected Record:	24-6
Current Conf Record:	20-3
Expected Conf Record:	20-3
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	20-2
Current OOC Record:	4-3
Expected OOC Record:	4-3
Expected OOC RPI:	101
Expected OOC SOS:	146

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
24-6	84.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Weber St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-15	San Jose St. (261.0)	WAC	A	68-67	L	0%
11-24	Utah St. (108.0)	WAC	A	65-55	L	0%
11-28	Dayton (114.0)	A10	A	61-62	W	100%
12-5	Utah Valley (297.0)	GWC	H	89-56	W	100%
12-8	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	H	65-51	W	100%
12-15	Brigham Young (69.0)	WCC	H	68-78	L	0%
12-20	Eastern Washington (321.0)	BSky	A	53-74	W	100%
12-22	Portland St. (339.0)	BSky	A	69-73	W	100%
1-3	Northern Colorado (257.0)	BSky	H	79-54	W	100%
1-5	North Dakota (226.0)	BSky	H	95-63	W	100%
1-10	Southern Utah (314.0)	BSky	A	74-81	W	100%
1-14	Idaho St. (337.0)	BSky	A	54-70	W	100%
1-17	Northern Arizona (255.0)	BSky	H	83-70	W	100%
1-19	Sacramento St. (283.0)	BSky	H	65-56	W	100%
1-24	Montana St. (317.0)	BSky	A	79-74	L	0%
1-26	Montana (66.0)	BSky	A	76-74	L	0%
1-31	North Dakota (226.0)	BSky	A	51-66	W	100%
2-2	Northern Colorado (257.0)	BSky	A	64-85	W	100%
2-9	Southern Utah (314.0)	BSky	H	75-58	W	100%
2-11	Idaho St. (337.0)	BSky	H	56-40	W	100%
2-14	Montana (66.0)	BSky	H	87-63	W	100%
2-16	Montana St. (317.0)	BSky	H	69-61	W	100%
2-23	Oral Roberts (151.0)	Slnd	A	66-70	W	100%
2-28	Sacramento St. (283.0)	BSky	A	55-70	W	100%
3-2	Northern Arizona (255.0)	BSky	A	78-80	W	100%
3-7	Portland St. (339.0)	BSky	H	80-52	W	100%
3-9	Eastern Washington (321.0)	BSky	H	65-57	W	100%
3-14	Northern Arizona (255.0)	BSky	N	84-58	W	100%
3-15	North Dakota (226.0)	BSky	N	76-74	W	100%
3-16	Montana (66.0)	BSky	A	67-64	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Weber St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Weber St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Weber St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Weber St.	BSky	26.76	26.76	84.06	84.06	18.23	18.23
Montana	BSky	6.23	6.23	80.77	80.77	3.83	3.83
North Dakota	BSky	6.21	6.21	51.85	51.85	0.23	0.23
Northern Arizona	BSky	6.19	6.19	37.93	37.93	-1.49	-1.49
Northern Colorado	BSky	4.68	4.68	40.74	40.74	-0.87	-0.87
Southern Utah	BSky	4.62	4.62	33.33	33.33	-1.54	-1.54
Montana St.	BSky	4.62	4.62	38.46	38.46	-1.07	-1.07
Eastern Washington	BSky	4.57	4.57	34.48	34.48	-1.42	-1.42
Idaho St.	BSky	4.56	4.56	18.52	18.52	-2.87	-2.87
Sacramento St.	BSky	4.56	4.56	48.00	48.00	-0.18	-0.18
Portland St.	BSky	4.52	4.52	25.00	25.00	-2.26	-2.26
Brigham Young	WCC	1.86	1.86	63.33	63.33	0.50	0.50
San Jose St.	WAC	1.84	1.84	25.93	25.93	-0.89	-0.89
Utah St.	WAC	1.84	1.84	65.52	65.52	0.57	0.57
Utah Valley	GWC	1.75	1.75	37.04	37.04	-0.45	-0.45
Dayton	A10	1.67	1.67	56.67	56.67	0.22	0.22
Oral Roberts	Slnd	1.67	1.67	56.67	56.67	0.22	0.22
UC Irvine	BW	1.67	1.67	56.25	56.25	0.21	0.21
UC Davis	BW	0.36	0.36	45.16	45.16	-0.03	-0.03
Idaho	WAC	0.31	0.31	37.93	37.93	-0.08	-0.08
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.24	0.24	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.24	0.24	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.23	0.23	30.00	30.00	-0.09	-0.09
Seattle	WAC	0.23	0.23	24.14	24.14	-0.12	-0.12
San Diego	WCC	0.22	0.22	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.22	0.22	31.25	31.25	-0.08	-0.08
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.22	0.22	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Oregon	P12	0.20	0.20	76.47	76.47	0.11	0.11
Santa Clara	WCC	0.19	0.19	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.19	0.19	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Denver	WAC	0.17	0.17	70.00	70.00	0.07	0.07
UC Riverside	BW	0.17	0.17	14.29	14.29	-0.12	-0.12
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.17	0.17	70.97	70.97	0.07	0.07
Pepperdine	WCC	0.17	0.17	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.17	0.17	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Utah	P12	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	74.19	74.19	0.07	0.07
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.14	0.14	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
Texas St.	WAC	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Washington St.	P12	0.14	0.14	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.14	0.14	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.14	0.14	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.14	0.14	81.25	81.25	0.08	0.08
Oregon St.	P12	0.12	0.12	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.12	0.12	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.12	0.12	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.12	0.12	80.65	80.65	0.07	0.07
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.11	0.11	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Gonzaga	WCC	0.11	0.11	93.75	93.75	0.10	0.10
Cal Poly	BW	0.11	0.11	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Colorado	P12	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Pacific	BW	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.09	0.09	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	SC	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada	MWC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.08	0.08	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Campbell	BSth	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
New Orleans	ind	0.06	0.06	18.18	18.18	-0.04	-0.04
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Christian	B12	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.05	85.19	85.19	0.04	0.04
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01