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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Weber St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:183.0
Current RPI:220
Expected SOS:251
Current SOS:265
Current Record:9-7
Expected Record:15-12
Current Conf Record:5-2
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-3
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:211
Expected OOC SOS:168



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-799.30.17%
19-8115.61.91%
18-9135.17.32%
17-10155.016.97%
16-11174.625.07%
15-12193.423.33%
14-13211.515.73%
13-14228.76.74%
12-15245.72.31%
11-16262.70.40%
10-17285.30.03%
9-18302.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Weber St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Utah St. (167.7)MWCH65-59W100%0.0
11-17Iona (82.3)MAACN72-80L0%0.0
11-18James Madison (277.3)CAAN73-65W100%0.0
11-19Bradley (123.9)MVCN64-70L0%0.0
11-30Fresno St. (103.9)MWCA83-71L0%0.0
12-6Utah Valley (84.7)WACA83-56L0%0.0
12-9BYU (62.6)WCCN74-68L0%0.0
12-16Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.8)SWACH96-74W100%0.0
12-19Pepperdine (307.4)WCCH72-67W100%0.0
12-30Idaho St. (263.3)BSkyH60-62L0%0.0
1-4Northern Arizona (316.5)BSkyH95-55W100%0.0
1-6Southern Utah (264.9)BSkyH92-76W100%0.0
1-11Northern Colorado (146.2)BSkyA74-78W100%0.0
1-13North Dakota (215.5)BSkyA89-79L0%0.0
1-18Sacramento St. (279.0)BSkyH80-64W100%0.0
1-20Portland St. (122.0)BSkyH84-79W100%0.0
1-27Idaho St. (263.3)BSkyA0-063%3.6
2-1Southern Utah (264.9)BSkyA0-070%5.8
2-3Northern Arizona (316.5)BSkyA0-079%8.8
2-8North Dakota (215.5)BSkyH0-077%8.1
2-10Northern Colorado (146.2)BSkyH0-064%4.1
2-15Portland St. (122.0)BSkyA0-033%-4.9
2-17Sacramento St. (279.0)BSkyA0-064%4.1
2-22Eastern Washington (192.1)BSkyH0-065%4.3
2-24Idaho (145.9)BSkyH0-054%1.1
3-1Montana (98.9)BSkyA0-024%-8.0
3-3Montana St. (219.7)BSkyA0-058%2.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Weber St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Weber St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Weber St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Weber St.BSky26.3726.3451.5657.600.824.00
Idaho St.BSky3.834.6940.0038.71-0.77-1.06
North DakotaBSky3.484.5625.0032.70-1.74-1.58
Northern ColoradoBSky3.404.5362.5060.160.850.92
Portland St.BSky3.394.5262.5065.490.851.40
Southern UtahBSky3.394.5240.0035.28-0.68-1.33
Northern ArizonaBSky3.324.5011.7615.64-2.54-3.09
Sacramento St.BSky3.314.5017.6524.95-2.14-2.25
Montana St.BSky0.712.9050.0047.860.00-0.12
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.552.8438.8946.43-0.12-0.20
IdahoBSky0.552.8464.7167.620.161.00
MontanaBSky0.552.8470.5973.010.231.31
BYUWCC3.472.0580.0075.442.081.04
PepperdineWCC3.392.0511.1118.99-2.64-1.27
Utah St.MWC3.382.0547.3747.07-0.18-0.12
Utah ValleyWAC3.392.0264.7164.701.000.59
Fresno St.MWC3.281.9764.7162.060.970.48
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC3.301.9531.5837.66-1.22-0.48
BradleyMVC3.121.8563.1656.420.820.24
IonaMAAC3.121.8561.1165.740.690.58
James MadisonCAA3.121.8526.3229.22-1.48-0.77
Santa ClaraWCC0.410.3233.3332.96-0.14-0.11
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.370.3017.6519.33-0.24-0.18
UNLVMWC0.270.2973.6865.280.130.09
PortlandWCC0.250.2527.7827.30-0.11-0.12
San Jose St.MWC0.270.2311.7612.81-0.21-0.17
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.260.2329.4133.22-0.11-0.08
UC DavisBW0.360.2358.8262.450.060.06
Boise St.MWC0.350.2378.9576.970.200.12
WyomingMWC0.170.2361.1156.830.040.03
GonzagaWCC0.250.2280.9583.260.160.15
San FranciscoWCC0.330.2250.0048.740.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.330.1958.8262.830.060.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.170.1927.7829.11-0.07-0.08
Saint Mary'sWCC0.240.1990.4888.940.200.15
San DiegoWCC0.240.1963.1657.540.060.03
SeattleWAC0.100.1757.8954.500.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.270.1721.0523.50-0.15-0.09
UC RiversideBW0.260.1717.6523.89-0.17-0.09
South DakotaSum0.180.1673.6872.360.080.07
NevadaMWC0.160.1685.7182.070.120.10
Colorado St.MWC0.250.1645.0041.34-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.160.1630.0039.93-0.07-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.170.1670.5969.610.070.06
PacificWCC0.230.1545.0044.46-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.270.1340.0043.34-0.05-0.02
Arizona St.P120.180.1378.9576.130.110.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.260.1356.2556.810.030.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.180.1344.4450.31-0.020.00
StanfordP120.090.1355.0050.370.010.00
HawaiiBW0.260.1368.7563.960.100.04
New MexicoMWC0.090.1345.0048.56-0.01-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.160.1237.5031.76-0.04-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.230.120.0010.65-0.23-0.09
Washington St.P120.100.1050.0042.180.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1062.5058.700.020.02
DukeACC0.180.1089.4785.190.140.07
Chicago St.WAC0.160.100.003.12-0.16-0.09
OregonP120.180.1065.0063.830.050.03
Cal PolyBW0.170.1023.5328.21-0.09-0.04
DenverSum0.090.1033.3336.47-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.180.1057.8950.810.030.00
UTSACUSA0.240.1041.1839.65-0.04-0.02
TroySB0.170.1035.2942.76-0.05-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.240.0952.6347.360.01-0.01
UtahP120.150.0961.1158.950.030.02
DelawareCAA0.160.0947.3743.04-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.230.0963.1663.180.060.02
ValparaisoMVC0.160.0950.0051.360.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.150.0947.3745.87-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.160.0957.1453.220.020.01
CanisiusMAAC0.160.0960.0060.340.030.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0921.0544.26-0.04-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0770.0071.230.000.03
IowaB100.100.0747.6244.03-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.100.0785.0083.180.070.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0783.3384.230.060.05
UMKCWAC0.090.0721.0524.71-0.05-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0745.0045.02-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0743.7549.10-0.01-0.00
ButlerBE0.090.0766.6763.070.030.02
CaliforniaP120.090.0736.8431.12-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.090.0760.0053.730.020.00
CreightonBE0.090.0775.0070.690.050.03
NebraskaB100.090.0766.6759.780.030.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0772.2272.970.040.03
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0741.1838.46-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0666.6765.530.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0630.0032.53-0.03-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.0670.0061.440.000.01
George MasonA100.160.0645.0041.35-0.02-0.01
ArizonaP120.090.0680.0078.980.050.04
HamptonMEAC0.090.0620.0041.76-0.05-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0633.3333.80-0.03-0.02
Kansas St.B120.090.0673.6862.720.040.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0625.0028.020.00-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0650.0051.650.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.090.0635.0026.14-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0642.1143.50-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0666.6765.620.000.02
DrakeMVC0.080.0655.0049.070.01-0.00
DrexelCAA0.080.0630.0030.99-0.03-0.02
ElonCAA0.080.0652.6351.090.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0638.8944.14-0.02-0.01
HofstraCAA0.080.0657.8959.470.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0644.4446.100.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0677.7871.650.040.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0647.3748.170.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0670.0068.420.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0627.7840.88-0.04-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0647.0652.51-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.160.0666.6773.240.050.03
RiderMAAC0.080.0665.0065.370.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0644.4448.91-0.01-0.00
SienaMAAC0.080.0630.0031.69-0.03-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0652.6350.250.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0663.1666.000.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0622.2227.330.00-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.160.0664.7159.980.050.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0610.5316.75-0.06-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0616.6724.29-0.05-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0612.5025.47-0.06-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0636.8444.120.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0638.8943.430.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0621.0539.47-0.05-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.080.0627.7840.97-0.03-0.01
KentuckySEC0.090.0373.6867.950.040.01
ArkansasSEC0.090.0368.4264.200.030.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0350.0051.480.000.00
Penn St.B100.000.0361.9055.770.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0340.0030.870.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0352.9452.230.000.00
BelmontOVC0.080.0371.4374.650.040.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.0344.4442.740.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0331.5832.720.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0352.6355.290.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0345.0047.050.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0368.4254.090.030.00
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0368.4263.980.030.01
AlbanyAE0.080.0370.0068.050.030.01
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0333.3337.22-0.03-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0323.5325.63-0.04-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0327.7838.13-0.04-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0329.4133.94-0.03-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0323.5332.62-0.04-0.01
FIUCUSA0.080.0335.2935.57-0.02-0.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0373.6871.550.040.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0366.6765.360.030.01
Holy CrossPat0.080.0326.3230.43-0.04-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.080.0327.7829.84-0.03-0.01
Little RockSB0.080.0322.2225.26-0.04-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0321.0521.990.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.080.0352.6345.860.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.080.0329.4138.15-0.03-0.01
NJITASun0.080.0338.8942.60-0.02-0.00
OhioMAC0.080.0347.0648.44-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0378.9576.760.050.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0331.5830.000.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0361.1160.790.020.01
Rhode IslandA100.080.0383.3381.410.050.02
RichmondA100.080.0331.5834.35-0.03-0.01
St. John'sBE0.080.0347.3742.18-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.080.0368.4261.270.030.01
The CitadelSC0.080.0318.7518.40-0.05-0.02
VermontAE0.080.0373.6877.120.040.02
YaleIvy0.080.0341.1847.51-0.01-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.070.0368.4258.990.030.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.070.0352.9460.270.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0360.0062.030.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0389.4785.520.060.02
SMUAmer0.080.0370.0070.630.030.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0326.3231.52-0.04-0.01
Texas St.SB0.080.0357.8950.210.010.00