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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Weber St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:149.0
Current RPI:149
Expected SOS:248
Current SOS:248
Current Record:17-11
Expected Record:17-11
Current Conf Record:16-6
Expected Conf Record:16-6
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-5
Current OOC Record:1-5
Expected OOC Record:1-5
Expected OOC RPI:275
Expected OOC SOS:83



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-11149.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Weber St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8BYU (31.0)WCCA81-72L0%0.0
11-16Colorado St. (182.0)MWCA88-67L0%0.0
11-26Utah St. (116.0)MWCH71-77L0%0.0
11-30San Jose St. (278.0)MWCH72-55W100%0.0
12-11Utah Valley (144.0)WACA62-59L0%0.0
12-22UCLA (14.0)P12A83-60L0%0.0
1-2Eastern Washington (228.0)BSkyH74-67W100%0.0
1-4Portland St. (252.0)BSkyH79-62W100%0.0
1-9Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyA70-51L0%0.0
1-11North Dakota (197.0)BSkyA60-72W100%0.0
1-18Southern Utah (346.0)BSkyH65-59W100%0.0
1-20Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyH65-59W100%0.0
1-23Montana St. (275.0)BSkyH86-57W100%0.0
1-25Montana (183.0)BSkyH68-63W100%0.0
1-30Northern Arizona (247.0)BSkyA67-76W100%0.0
2-1Sacramento St. (263.0)BSkyA78-75L0%0.0
2-6North Dakota (197.0)BSkyH84-72W100%0.0
2-8Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyH79-65W100%0.0
2-13Southern Utah (346.0)BSkyA55-75W100%0.0
2-17Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyA78-75L0%0.0
2-20Montana (183.0)BSkyA68-57L0%0.0
2-22Montana St. (275.0)BSkyA68-86W100%0.0
2-27Sacramento St. (263.0)BSkyH79-67W100%0.0
3-1Northern Arizona (247.0)BSkyH71-73L0%0.0
3-6Portland St. (252.0)BSkyA66-59L0%0.0
3-8Eastern Washington (228.0)BSkyA78-82W100%0.0
3-14Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyH66-63W100%0.0
3-15North Dakota (197.0)BSkyH88-67W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Weber St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Weber St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Weber St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Weber St.BSky26.7126.7163.3963.397.157.15
North DakotaBSky6.676.6753.5753.570.480.48
Northern ColoradoBSky6.626.6257.6957.691.021.02
Portland St.BSky4.964.9651.8551.850.180.18
Sacramento St.BSky4.914.9142.3142.31-0.76-0.76
Northern ArizonaBSky4.914.9144.8344.83-0.51-0.51
MontanaBSky4.864.8653.8553.850.370.37
Southern UtahBSky4.834.833.853.85-4.46-4.46
Eastern WashingtonBSky4.814.8148.1548.15-0.18-0.18
Montana St.BSky4.814.8144.4444.44-0.53-0.53
Idaho St.BSky4.804.8032.0032.00-1.73-1.73
Utah St.MWC2.062.0653.3353.330.140.14
Colorado St.MWC2.032.0344.8344.83-0.21-0.21
San Jose St.MWC1.901.9017.8617.86-1.22-1.22
UCLAP121.851.8575.7675.760.950.95
BYUWCC1.811.8165.6265.620.570.57
Utah ValleyWAC1.811.8160.7160.710.390.39
IdahoWAC0.350.3545.4545.45-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.330.3353.3353.330.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.320.3238.7138.71-0.07-0.07
UC RiversideBW0.280.2827.5927.59-0.13-0.13
UNLVMWC0.270.2760.6160.610.060.06
PortlandWCC0.270.2748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.270.2787.1087.100.200.20
OregonP120.220.2271.8871.880.100.10
WashingtonP120.220.2253.1253.120.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.210.2163.3363.330.060.06
Boise St.MWC0.210.2159.3859.380.040.04
Fresno St.MWC0.210.2148.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.190.1945.4545.45-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.180.1873.5373.530.090.09
New MexicoMWC0.180.1881.8281.820.110.11
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.180.1830.3030.30-0.07-0.07
NevadaMWC0.180.1846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.170.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
UC DavisBW0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
UTEPCUSA0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.150.1557.1457.140.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.150.1535.7135.71-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.150.1563.3363.330.040.04
USCP120.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
HawaiiBW0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1246.1546.15-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1278.5778.570.070.07
CaliforniaP120.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
GonzagaWCC0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
ArizonaP120.110.1188.2488.240.080.08
StanfordP120.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Arizona St.P120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Kansas St.B120.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
ColoradoP120.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
MinnesotaB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0670.5970.590.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01