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Through games of Nov 19, 2014.


Weber St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:160.2
Current RPI:87
Expected SOS:239
Current SOS:24
Current Record:0-1
Expected Record:15-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:0-1
Expected OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC RPI:162
Expected OOC SOS:36



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-340.00.03%
21-445.90.28%
20-560.61.05%
19-673.93.32%
18-792.36.59%
17-8113.212.27%
16-9134.916.59%
15-10158.018.01%
14-11180.817.00%
13-12204.212.18%
12-13226.67.17%
11-14249.33.34%
10-15268.01.53%
9-16290.80.41%
8-17302.80.19%
7-18316.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Weber St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Utah St. (98.6)MWCA72-61L0%0.0
11-21Illinois St. (134.5)MVCN0-044%-1.7
12-1Oral Roberts (111.2)SumH0-055%1.4
12-6UT Arlington (167.4)SBA0-046%-1.3
12-13BYU (38.8)WCCH0-033%-5.3
12-20Utah Valley (243.1)WACH0-080%10.0
12-22Oklahoma (42.6)B12A0-013%-13.4
1-1Eastern Washington (115.0)BSkyA0-036%-4.2
1-3Idaho (223.5)BSkyA0-054%1.1
1-8Montana (195.6)BSkyH0-069%6.0
1-10Montana St. (309.8)BSkyH0-089%15.0
1-15Northern Arizona (222.5)BSkyA0-052%0.7
1-17Southern Utah (325.5)BSkyA0-078%9.1
1-22Portland St. (201.1)BSkyH0-072%7.1
1-24Sacramento St. (233.7)BSkyH0-079%9.6
1-29North Dakota (264.0)BSkyA0-062%3.7
1-31Northern Colorado (260.9)BSkyA0-057%2.1
2-7Idaho St. (293.6)BSkyA0-067%5.3
2-12Southern Utah (325.5)BSkyH0-091%16.3
2-14Northern Arizona (222.5)BSkyH0-075%7.9
2-19Montana St. (309.8)BSkyA0-074%7.8
2-21Montana (195.6)BSkyA0-046%-1.2
2-28Idaho St. (293.6)BSkyH0-085%12.5
3-5Idaho (223.5)BSkyH0-076%8.3
3-7Eastern Washington (115.0)BSkyH0-060%3.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Weber St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Weber St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Weber St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Weber St.BSky33.3326.400.0060.66-33.335.63
Idaho St.BSky0.005.110.0034.61-0.00-1.57
Montana St.BSky0.005.010.0024.37-0.00-2.57
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.004.98100.0060.440.001.04
IdahoBSky0.004.93100.0051.810.000.18
MontanaBSky0.004.930.0051.61-0.000.16
Southern UtahBSky0.004.900.0024.78-0.00-2.47
Northern ArizonaBSky0.004.870.0047.13-0.00-0.28
Sacramento St.BSky0.003.0850.0048.000.00-0.12
North DakotaBSky0.003.010.0038.39-0.00-0.70
Northern ColoradoBSky0.003.000.0047.79-0.00-0.13
Portland St.BSky0.003.00100.0055.680.000.34
Utah ValleyWAC0.002.4650.0043.780.00-0.31
Utah St.MWC50.002.18100.0060.7750.000.47
UT ArlingtonSB0.002.0750.0052.570.000.11
OklahomaB120.002.0450.0059.120.000.37
Oral RobertsSum0.002.0450.0057.360.000.30
BYUWCC0.002.03100.0067.590.000.72
Illinois St.MVC8.332.030.0051.07-8.330.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.360.0051.45-0.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.29100.0066.580.000.10
SeattleWAC0.000.2550.0053.570.000.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.25100.0059.900.000.05
South DakotaSum0.000.250.0035.74-0.00-0.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.250.0049.79-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.2550.0055.680.000.03
WyomingMWC0.000.24100.0054.220.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.220.0033.89-0.00-0.07
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.2233.3339.11-0.00-0.05
PortlandWCC0.000.21100.0049.360.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.000.180.0036.13-0.00-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.000.15100.0057.290.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1533.3364.23-0.000.04
Western IllinoisSum0.000.150.0034.77-0.00-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.150.0034.13-0.00-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1550.0036.560.00-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.000.15100.0061.310.000.03
DenverSum0.000.15100.0065.200.000.04
Washington St.P120.000.150.0033.08-0.00-0.05
Kansas St.B120.000.15100.0062.480.000.04
CaliforniaP120.000.14100.0059.680.000.03
UNLVMWC0.000.14100.0056.650.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.140.0029.08-0.00-0.06
PacificWCC0.000.1450.0028.760.00-0.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1450.0033.140.00-0.05
New MexicoMWC0.000.14100.0065.300.000.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.14100.0068.320.000.05
Fresno St.MWC0.000.140.0044.97-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.1450.0071.330.000.06
IPFWSum0.000.11100.0064.670.000.03
DrakeMVC0.000.110.0029.37-0.00-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.000.11100.0066.000.000.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.11100.0028.530.00-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.11100.0062.250.000.03
BradleyMVC0.000.110.0025.06-0.00-0.05
GonzagaWCC0.000.11100.0088.090.000.08
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.110.0059.23-0.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC8.330.1150.0046.500.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.11100.0069.850.000.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1133.3345.39-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.100.0050.34-0.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.10100.0057.750.000.02
UCLAP120.000.10100.0063.500.000.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.1066.6762.860.000.03
KentuckySEC0.000.10100.0087.640.000.08
UC RiversideBW0.000.080.0028.31-0.00-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.0023.67-0.00-0.04
DavidsonA100.000.07100.0049.680.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.07100.0063.190.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0750.0051.340.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0733.3326.69-0.00-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.070.0030.90-0.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.070.0039.06-0.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0750.0060.550.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0750.0059.230.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.07100.0084.670.000.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0733.3337.15-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0750.0035.040.00-0.02
USCP120.000.0750.0037.740.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0766.6754.700.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0766.6757.410.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0750.0063.980.000.02
BaylorB120.000.07100.0070.300.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.07100.0063.940.000.02
KansasB120.000.0750.0062.370.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.07100.0052.320.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.07100.0054.330.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0766.6750.550.000.00
TCUB120.000.07100.0054.080.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0750.0046.310.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0750.0063.990.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.07100.0065.510.000.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.07100.0078.250.000.04
Air ForceMWC0.000.0750.0044.100.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.070.0015.45-0.00-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.000.070.0045.63-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.070.0045.30-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.070.0061.13-0.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.070.0058.77-0.000.01
IndianaB100.000.07100.0058.740.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.07100.0053.140.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.070.0048.73-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0750.0052.110.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.07100.0050.990.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.070.0044.59-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.070.0061.66-0.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.070.0019.78-0.00-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0039.59-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.070.0048.17-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.070.0039.95-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.07100.0056.290.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0750.0063.090.000.02
TroySB0.000.070.0041.54-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.07100.0069.810.000.03
OregonP120.000.04100.0064.960.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.040.0033.32-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.040.0031.35-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.04100.0072.920.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.04100.0075.270.000.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.040.0039.86-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.04100.0070.250.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.04100.0040.670.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.040.0049.82-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.040.0020.22-0.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.040.0027.00-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.040.0065.23-0.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0450.0071.660.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.04100.0044.710.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.040.0032.28-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0450.0035.590.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.040.0048.02-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.000.04100.0076.610.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.040.0037.22-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.040.0063.32-0.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.04100.0056.280.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0450.0029.550.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0466.6750.960.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.040.0046.87-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0450.0056.060.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.04100.0062.520.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0450.0064.150.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.040.0051.63-0.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.040.0040.28-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.04100.0061.600.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0027.02-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0039.790.00-0.01