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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Weber St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:246.4
Current RPI:228
Expected SOS:228
Current SOS:107
Current Record:2-5
Expected Record:11-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-6
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:243
Expected OOC SOS:106



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-8106.00.01%
18-9111.20.04%
17-10130.00.25%
16-11152.01.25%
15-12170.73.65%
14-13191.88.21%
13-14213.314.45%
12-15235.420.20%
11-16256.919.75%
10-17276.415.24%
9-18292.69.64%
8-19305.84.92%
7-20316.01.74%
6-21325.20.56%
5-22331.30.07%
4-23332.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Weber St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Utah St. (176.2)MWCA72-61L0%0.0
11-21Illinois St. (70.2)MVCN64-73L0%0.0
11-22LSU (67.0)SECN72-58L0%0.0
11-24Nevada (283.3)MWCN59-56W100%0.0
12-1Oral Roberts (203.3)SumH62-61W100%0.0
12-6UT Arlington (142.0)SBA63-56L0%0.0
12-13BYU (56.2)WCCH60-76L0%0.0
12-20Utah Valley (280.5)WACH0-072%6.7
12-22Oklahoma (19.1)B12A0-02%-24.3
1-1Eastern Washington (58.5)BSkyA0-08%-16.9
1-3Idaho (225.1)BSkyA0-029%-6.5
1-8Montana (163.2)BSkyH0-048%-0.5
1-10Montana St. (290.7)BSkyH0-077%8.6
1-15Northern Arizona (212.3)BSkyA0-029%-6.6
1-17Southern Utah (317.4)BSkyA0-055%1.4
1-22Portland St. (270.4)BSkyH0-074%7.5
1-24Sacramento St. (258.9)BSkyH0-069%6.0
1-29North Dakota (272.7)BSkyA0-049%-0.2
1-31Northern Colorado (178.5)BSkyA0-021%-9.3
2-7Idaho St. (299.2)BSkyA0-043%-2.0
2-12Southern Utah (317.4)BSkyH0-080%10.1
2-14Northern Arizona (212.3)BSkyH0-057%2.2
2-19Montana St. (290.7)BSkyA0-050%-0.1
2-21Montana (163.2)BSkyA0-022%-9.2
2-28Idaho St. (299.2)BSkyH0-072%6.7
3-5Idaho (225.1)BSkyH0-058%2.2
3-7Eastern Washington (58.5)BSkyH0-024%-8.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Weber St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Weber St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Weber St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Weber St.BSky27.7426.3525.8141.05-13.42-4.72
Idaho St.BSky0.004.7414.2932.61-0.00-1.65
Montana St.BSky0.404.6422.2228.09-0.22-2.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.004.6166.6776.490.002.44
IdahoBSky0.004.5737.5049.29-0.00-0.07
MontanaBSky0.004.5725.0051.06-0.000.10
Southern UtahBSky0.004.5416.6727.17-0.00-2.07
Northern ArizonaBSky0.004.5140.0050.34-0.000.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.002.8642.8642.78-0.00-0.41
North DakotaBSky0.002.7925.0032.10-0.00-1.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.002.7828.5756.44-0.000.36
Portland St.BSky0.002.7850.0042.460.00-0.42
Utah ValleyWAC0.402.2833.3340.77-0.13-0.42
Utah St.MWC7.942.0850.0049.220.00-0.03
NevadaMWC7.141.9212.5025.94-5.36-0.92
UT ArlingtonSB7.141.9250.0053.340.000.13
OklahomaB120.401.8877.7866.230.220.61
BYUWCC7.541.8862.5066.131.880.61
Illinois St.MVC7.541.8862.5063.031.880.49
Oral RobertsSum7.141.8850.0047.280.00-0.10
LSUSEC7.141.8577.7862.913.970.48
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.3362.5054.970.000.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.3075.0068.680.000.11
WyomingMWC0.000.2977.7873.370.000.14
SeattleWAC0.000.2437.5046.50-0.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.2350.0053.850.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.2327.2738.97-0.00-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.2355.5656.400.000.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.400.2336.3644.53-0.11-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.2025.0033.17-0.00-0.07
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.400.2010.0030.45-0.32-0.08
Colorado St.MWC0.000.20100.0078.050.000.11
UNLVMWC0.000.2075.0050.750.000.00
PortlandWCC0.000.2066.6748.410.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1930.0029.80-0.00-0.08
UC DavisBW0.400.1785.7161.020.280.04
CaliforniaP120.400.1790.0066.690.320.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.400.1744.4455.75-0.040.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.1670.0058.600.000.03
PacificWCC0.400.1650.0038.180.00-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.400.1436.3664.92-0.110.04
Washington St.P120.000.1340.0028.86-0.00-0.06
Western IllinoisSum0.000.1337.5031.95-0.00-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1371.4359.920.000.03
DenverSum0.000.1350.0054.230.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.1360.0037.220.00-0.03
UTSACUSA0.000.1342.8637.65-0.00-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.1357.1461.670.000.03
Missouri St.MVC0.400.1337.5040.20-0.10-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.400.1370.0072.830.160.06
San Jose St.MWC0.000.130.007.84-0.00-0.11
KentuckySEC0.400.13100.0094.790.400.11
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1325.0023.43-0.00-0.07
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.1371.4357.100.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.1270.0052.610.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.400.1033.3334.28-0.13-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.1037.5041.20-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.400.1042.8655.64-0.060.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1020.0028.20-0.00-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.000.1090.0090.940.000.08
IPFWSum0.000.1057.1456.900.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.10100.0071.820.000.04
DrakeMVC0.000.1020.0019.99-0.00-0.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.400.1042.8652.71-0.060.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1090.0078.050.000.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.360.1050.0074.000.000.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.400.1042.8638.26-0.06-0.02
BradleyMVC0.400.1033.3332.09-0.13-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.400.1050.0040.880.00-0.02
UCLAP120.000.0972.7357.280.000.01
MissouriSEC0.400.0944.4431.58-0.04-0.03
TexasB120.400.0990.0081.860.320.06
Texas TechB120.360.0988.8955.910.280.01
West VirginiaB120.360.0990.0066.940.290.03
UC RiversideBW0.000.0742.8643.10-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0720.0038.24-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.0011.40-0.00-0.05
DavidsonA100.000.0787.5077.020.000.04
Miami OHMAC0.000.0730.0028.50-0.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0750.0032.620.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0722.2241.92-0.00-0.01
USCP120.400.0760.0036.120.08-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.400.0736.3638.88-0.11-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.400.0737.5046.78-0.10-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0780.0057.630.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0720.0026.33-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0770.0071.330.000.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0711.1144.62-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.790.0640.0050.07-0.160.00
Seton HallBE0.790.0690.0067.260.630.02
UtahP120.400.0677.7879.480.220.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.0677.7871.960.000.03
TulsaAmer0.400.0660.0056.800.080.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0637.5034.19-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0633.3345.50-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0677.7871.110.000.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0666.6762.620.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0662.5071.290.000.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3332.85-0.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3345.28-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0675.0058.430.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0654.5557.300.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0036.67-0.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0660.0049.500.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0050.330.000.00
TroySB0.000.0633.3339.46-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0687.5085.320.000.05
ClemsonACC0.750.0666.6745.670.25-0.01
MassachusettsA100.360.0660.0055.630.070.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.400.0650.0039.340.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.750.0688.8981.310.590.04
UABCUSA0.750.0630.0037.28-0.30-0.02
BaylorB120.000.0690.0073.870.000.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0640.0050.32-0.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0688.8963.800.000.02
KansasB120.000.0688.8969.390.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0644.4445.64-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0650.0056.340.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0644.4470.08-0.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0688.8963.660.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0033.84-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.06100.0066.180.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0660.0059.420.000.01
XavierBE0.000.0680.0070.960.000.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0644.4436.35-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0660.0064.930.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0046.150.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0677.7865.390.000.02
OregonP120.000.0466.6758.060.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.040.0023.71-0.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0316.6719.68-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0080.590.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0366.6758.240.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0012.36-0.00-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0355.5638.600.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0310.0027.42-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0333.3362.92-0.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.400.0342.8638.75-0.06-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0344.4448.88-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0355.5647.870.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0325.0038.92-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0355.5659.990.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0377.7864.730.000.01
Oregon St.P120.400.0377.7855.460.220.00
BuffaloMAC0.400.0375.0069.120.200.01
DePaulBE0.400.0360.0034.110.08-0.01
HawaiiBW0.400.0366.6754.830.130.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.400.0320.0039.70-0.24-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0355.5661.790.000.01
PurdueB100.400.0372.7363.730.180.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0057.570.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.400.0362.5066.700.100.01
VCUA100.400.0370.0071.420.160.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.400.0345.4544.07-0.04-0.00
ButlerBE0.000.0380.0072.550.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.0372.7351.560.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0325.0025.93-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0037.73-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0311.1144.04-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.390.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6754.660.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0350.0044.900.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.360.0337.5050.40-0.090.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.510.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.360.0325.0049.09-0.18-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1828.02-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0362.5064.260.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0342.8627.08-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0375.0060.400.000.01