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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Weber St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:263.0
Current RPI:263
Expected SOS:245
Current SOS:245
Current Record:11-17
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-5
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:216
Expected OOC SOS:80



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-17263.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Weber St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Utah St. (143.0)MWCA72-61L0%0.0
11-21Illinois St. (62.0)MVCN64-73L0%0.0
11-22LSU (57.0)SECN72-58L0%0.0
11-24Nevada (306.0)MWCN59-56W100%0.0
12-1Oral Roberts (163.0)SumH62-61W100%0.0
12-6UT Arlington (184.0)SBA63-56L0%0.0
12-13BYU (36.0)WCCH60-76L0%0.0
12-20Utah Valley (308.0)WACH73-61W100%0.0
12-22Oklahoma (18.0)B12A85-51L0%0.0
1-1Eastern Washington (74.0)BSkyA84-78L0%0.0
1-3Idaho (267.0)BSkyA86-84L0%0.0
1-8Montana (144.0)BSkyH68-60W100%0.0
1-10Montana St. (325.0)BSkyH65-62W100%0.0
1-15Northern Arizona (166.0)BSkyA65-74W100%0.0
1-17Southern Utah (307.0)BSkyA70-60L0%0.0
1-22Portland St. (225.0)BSkyH63-69L0%0.0
1-24Sacramento St. (141.0)BSkyH71-78L0%0.0
1-29North Dakota (310.0)BSkyA60-67W100%0.0
1-31Northern Colorado (245.0)BSkyA71-57L0%0.0
2-7Idaho St. (343.0)BSkyA63-70W100%0.0
2-12Southern Utah (307.0)BSkyH56-65L0%0.0
2-14Northern Arizona (166.0)BSkyH54-61L0%0.0
2-19Montana St. (325.0)BSkyA71-74W100%0.0
2-21Montana (144.0)BSkyA74-63L0%0.0
2-28Idaho St. (343.0)BSkyH61-57W100%0.0
3-5Idaho (267.0)BSkyH74-63W100%0.0
3-7Eastern Washington (74.0)BSkyH71-79L0%0.0
3-12Montana (144.0)BSkyA76-73L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Weber St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Weber St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Weber St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Weber St.BSky26.3926.3939.2339.23-5.68-5.68
MontanaBSky6.276.2759.2659.261.161.16
Eastern WashingtonBSky4.664.6672.4172.412.092.09
Idaho St.BSky4.584.5819.2319.23-2.82-2.82
Montana St.BSky4.494.4922.2222.22-2.50-2.50
IdahoBSky4.484.4838.4638.46-1.03-1.03
Northern ArizonaBSky4.484.4856.6756.670.600.60
Southern UtahBSky4.374.3726.9226.92-2.02-2.02
Sacramento St.BSky2.832.8360.7160.710.610.61
Northern ColoradoBSky2.762.7644.4444.44-0.31-0.31
North DakotaBSky2.702.7022.2222.22-1.50-1.50
Portland St.BSky2.702.7046.1546.15-0.21-0.21
Utah ValleyWAC2.192.1933.3333.33-0.73-0.73
Utah St.MWC2.002.0055.1755.170.210.21
UT ArlingtonSB1.851.8548.2848.28-0.06-0.06
NevadaMWC1.851.8525.0025.00-0.92-0.92
BYUWCC1.821.8270.9770.970.760.76
Illinois St.MVC1.821.8261.2961.290.410.41
OklahomaB121.821.8267.7467.740.640.64
Oral RobertsSum1.811.8155.1755.170.190.19
LSUSEC1.791.7967.7467.740.630.63
South Dakota St.Sum0.310.3167.7467.740.110.11
Boise St.MWC0.310.3174.1974.190.150.15
WyomingMWC0.310.3171.8871.880.130.13
North Dakota St.Sum0.270.2770.0070.000.110.11
South DakotaSum0.240.2448.3948.39-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.240.2448.2848.28-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.240.2441.9441.94-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.220.2236.6736.67-0.06-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.220.2251.7251.720.010.01
UNLVMWC0.220.2253.1253.120.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.210.2181.2581.250.130.13
PortlandWCC0.210.2150.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.190.1939.2939.29-0.04-0.04
CaliforniaP120.180.1854.5554.550.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.160.1679.3179.310.090.09
Nebraska OmahaSum0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.150.1532.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Washington St.P120.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1367.7467.740.040.04
DenverSum0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1223.0823.08-0.07-0.07
Air ForceMWC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.120.120.000.00-0.12-0.12
Kansas St.B120.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
UTSACUSA0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.120.12100.00100.000.120.12
San Diego St.MWC0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1290.9190.910.090.09
Missouri St.MVC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.04-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.110.1193.9493.940.100.10
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
MississippiSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
UCLAP120.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
DavidsonA100.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
IUPUISum0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
DrakeMVC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.090.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
MissouriSEC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0972.4172.410.040.04
WashingtonP120.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
AuburnSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Iowa St.B120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Texas TechB120.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
UC RiversideBW0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
USCP120.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
UtahP120.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
IndianaB100.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
SMUAmer0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
BaylorB120.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
FloridaSEC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
MassachusettsA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0652.9452.940.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0675.8675.860.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
UABCUSA0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
XavierBE0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
OregonP120.030.0372.7372.730.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0362.9662.960.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.030.03
ColoradoP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0327.2727.27-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01