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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


San Diego

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:141.9
Current RPI:148
Expected SOS:157
Current SOS:226
Current Record:12-7
Expected Record:17-12
Current Conf Record:4-4
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-3
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:96
Expected OOC SOS:200



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-761.50.02%
21-870.30.12%
20-985.81.38%
19-10101.86.63%
18-11119.119.14%
17-12136.828.96%
16-13154.425.80%
15-14171.413.54%
14-15187.93.73%
13-16203.00.60%
12-17221.30.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Diego.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12San Jose St. (304.5)MWCA64-81W100%0.0
11-15Robert Morris (151.7)NECH65-53W100%0.0
11-18Norfolk St. (292.5)MEACH71-62W100%0.0
11-20Little Rock (293.4)SBH66-52W100%0.0
11-25Grand Canyon (147.4)WACA62-72W100%0.0
11-30San Diego St. (86.0)MWCH57-66L0%0.0
12-2UC Santa Barbara (108.2)BWA67-57L0%0.0
12-6New Mexico St. (43.2)WACA60-65W100%0.0
12-9Northern Arizona (316.5)BSkyH79-51W100%0.0
12-12Colorado (85.4)P12A59-69W100%0.0
12-16North Texas (217.7)CUSAH83-86L0%0.0
12-28San Francisco (171.2)WCCH73-63W100%0.0
12-30Pepperdine (307.4)WCCH74-66W100%0.0
1-4Portland (257.0)WCCA74-81W100%0.0
1-6Saint Mary's (35.0)WCCA70-63L0%0.0
1-11Pacific (176.2)WCCA74-70L0%0.0
1-13Loyola Marymount (263.0)WCCH75-71W100%0.0
1-18Portland (257.0)WCCH49-55L0%0.0
1-20BYU (62.6)WCCA74-58L0%0.0
1-25Santa Clara (258.5)WCCH0-083%10.6
1-27Loyola Marymount (263.0)WCCA0-065%4.4
2-1Gonzaga (33.1)WCCA0-04%-19.6
2-3Saint Mary's (35.0)WCCH0-021%-9.0
2-8Pepperdine (307.4)WCCA0-070%5.9
2-10Santa Clara (258.5)WCCA0-065%4.2
2-15Pacific (176.2)WCCH0-073%6.9
2-17BYU (62.6)WCCH0-035%-4.2
2-22Gonzaga (33.1)WCCH0-012%-13.2
2-24San Francisco (171.2)WCCA0-040%-2.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Diego's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Diego's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Diego.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San DiegoWCC26.4926.3862.9257.106.853.75
Saint Mary'sWCC3.124.4590.0088.902.493.46
Santa ClaraWCC0.634.4433.3333.49-0.21-1.47
GonzagaWCC0.564.4280.9582.640.352.89
San FranciscoWCC3.134.4252.6350.080.160.01
PepperdineWCC3.034.4111.1118.59-2.36-2.77
PortlandWCC5.614.4125.0025.55-2.80-2.16
BYUWCC3.114.3980.0075.811.872.27
PacificWCC3.114.3942.1143.11-0.49-0.60
Loyola MarymountWCC3.034.3829.4130.02-1.25-1.75
San Jose St.MWC2.921.9612.5013.28-2.19-1.44
Grand CanyonWAC2.921.8873.6873.781.380.89
San Diego St.MWC2.711.8456.2561.460.340.42
UC Santa BarbaraBW2.771.8468.7568.491.040.68
New Mexico St.WAC2.761.8488.2487.472.111.38
Robert MorrisNEC2.851.8160.0062.410.570.45
Little RockSB2.841.8123.5326.16-1.50-0.86
Norfolk St.MEAC2.831.8120.0038.12-1.70-0.43
Northern ArizonaBSky2.631.7911.7615.85-2.01-1.22
ColoradoP122.631.7263.1655.580.690.19
North TexasCUSA2.631.7241.1844.74-0.46-0.18
NevadaMWC0.210.3085.7182.070.150.19
UC RiversideBW0.350.2717.6523.89-0.23-0.14
Sacramento St.BSky0.430.2716.6724.46-0.29-0.14
Boise St.MWC0.360.2578.9576.970.210.13
SeattleWAC0.350.2457.8954.500.050.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.360.2456.2556.810.040.03
UC DavisBW0.200.2358.8262.450.030.06
Arizona St.P120.350.2378.9576.130.200.12
Portland St.BSky0.220.2158.8263.210.040.06
Air ForceMWC0.210.2137.5031.76-0.05-0.08
Utah St.MWC0.220.2045.0045.50-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.370.1845.0048.56-0.04-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.290.1845.0041.34-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.150.1823.5328.21-0.08-0.08
USCP120.220.1871.4368.300.090.07
UNLVMWC0.140.1873.6865.280.070.06
WyomingMWC0.140.1861.1156.830.030.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.140.1866.6766.010.050.06
UC IrvineBW0.290.1830.0039.93-0.11-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.140.1840.0043.34-0.03-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.280.1860.0062.030.060.04
WashingtonP120.140.1770.0061.440.060.04
Weber St.BSky0.210.1756.2557.400.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.190.1752.9459.250.010.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.150.1529.4133.22-0.06-0.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.140.1545.0045.02-0.01-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.220.1537.5033.78-0.05-0.05
Idaho St.BSky0.210.1543.7540.93-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.210.1450.0042.180.00-0.02
StanfordP120.130.1455.0050.370.010.00
Chicago St.WAC0.140.120.003.12-0.14-0.12
UMKCWAC0.070.1221.0524.71-0.04-0.06
UTEPCUSA0.220.1233.3334.11-0.07-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.1217.6519.33-0.05-0.08
McNeese St.Slnd0.220.1228.5731.27-0.10-0.05
IdahoBSky0.070.1264.7166.850.020.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.1230.0036.48-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.140.1258.8257.140.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.127.6920.09-0.06-0.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.210.1245.0049.27-0.02-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.140.1238.8946.03-0.03-0.01
CaliforniaP120.140.1236.8431.12-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.060.1161.1158.950.010.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.1121.0544.26-0.04-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0966.6763.420.030.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0950.0052.440.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.070.0920.0041.76-0.04-0.02
OklahomaB120.220.0977.7867.900.120.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0943.7549.10-0.01-0.00
Oregon St.P120.140.0957.8950.810.020.00
MontanaBSky0.150.0970.5973.140.060.04
Montana St.BSky0.150.0950.0047.670.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.150.0968.4263.980.050.03
Oral RobertsSum0.140.0930.0032.53-0.06-0.03
ArizonaP120.140.0980.0078.980.080.05
Texas St.SB0.140.0957.8950.210.020.00
GeorgiaSEC0.140.0966.6755.930.050.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0910.5327.310.00-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.140.0957.1453.220.020.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.090.0010.65-0.13-0.07
North DakotaBSky0.000.0929.4134.760.00-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.130.0960.0060.340.030.02
DuquesneA100.130.0970.0058.100.050.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0880.9576.520.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.150.0621.0539.47-0.09-0.01
IllinoisB100.140.0647.3744.27-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.160.0658.8249.760.03-0.00
DePaulBE0.150.0642.1134.32-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.150.0652.6346.880.01-0.00
HawaiiBW0.080.0668.7563.960.030.02
North CarolinaACC0.150.0680.0075.050.090.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0627.7834.500.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0627.7831.67-0.04-0.02
ValparaisoMVC0.000.0650.0051.360.000.00
BradleyMVC0.150.0665.0057.870.050.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0610.0019.62-0.05-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0629.4139.62-0.03-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.150.0643.7554.09-0.020.00
Old DominionCUSA0.160.0678.9576.760.090.03
South DakotaSum0.150.0673.6872.360.070.03
DenverSum0.140.0633.3336.47-0.05-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0633.3337.220.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0627.7831.12-0.03-0.02
BelmontOVC0.070.0671.4374.650.030.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0627.7838.130.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0635.2935.570.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0637.5037.680.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0666.6765.360.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.070.0666.6765.530.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.0636.8444.12-0.04-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0683.3381.350.050.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0626.6729.04-0.03-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0668.4254.090.030.00
RiceCUSA0.070.0611.1117.69-0.06-0.04
UTSACUSA0.070.0641.1839.65-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.070.0661.1160.790.010.01
UCLAP120.070.0665.0062.040.020.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0668.4258.990.020.01
BryantNEC0.060.069.5217.08-0.05-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0652.3848.520.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.0675.0070.690.000.02
DaytonA100.060.0647.3750.95-0.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0623.5332.62-0.03-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0673.6871.550.000.02
HarvardIvy0.060.0637.5046.63-0.02-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0647.3745.87-0.00-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.000.0627.7829.840.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0640.0042.57-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0650.0046.780.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0642.1144.970.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0652.9460.270.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0630.0033.49-0.03-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0633.3335.19-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.000.0663.1657.620.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0650.0055.650.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.0694.7490.310.000.04
WagnerNEC0.060.0664.7164.540.020.02
DavidsonA100.070.0358.8261.440.010.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0376.4769.020.040.01
AuburnSEC0.080.0389.4777.030.060.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.039.5217.94-0.07-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.009.150.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0329.4133.94-0.03-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0331.5832.72-0.03-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0344.4444.86-0.01-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0377.7871.650.050.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0315.7920.920.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0325.0028.02-0.04-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0355.5656.710.010.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0344.4450.31-0.010.00
PittsburghACC0.080.0340.0030.87-0.02-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0352.6350.250.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.080.0338.8946.68-0.02-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0323.5325.63-0.04-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0368.4254.090.030.00
Georgia TechACC0.070.0352.6343.120.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0344.4446.10-0.01-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0333.3333.80-0.02-0.01
Kansas St.B120.070.0373.6862.720.030.01
LongwoodBSth0.070.0317.6517.23-0.04-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0352.6355.290.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.070.0377.7869.360.040.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0368.4263.640.000.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0365.0058.490.020.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0372.2274.700.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0372.2258.940.030.01
NebraskaB100.070.0366.6759.780.020.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0350.0045.900.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.070.0335.0026.14-0.02-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0341.1838.46-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0347.3742.18-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.0335.2942.760.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.0361.1164.130.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0368.4270.810.000.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0355.0049.070.01-0.00
IowaB100.070.0347.6244.03-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.070.0344.4454.89-0.010.00
OregonP120.070.0365.0063.830.020.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0331.5830.00-0.02-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0372.2272.970.030.01
XavierBE0.070.0385.7180.080.050.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0372.2274.900.030.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0330.0030.99-0.03-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0368.4257.770.020.00
RiderMAAC0.060.0365.0065.370.020.01
SienaMAAC0.060.0330.0031.69-0.03-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0321.0523.50-0.04-0.01