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Through games of Nov 19, 2014.


San Diego

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:109.1
Current RPI:182
Expected SOS:80
Current SOS:205
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:14-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:112
Expected OOC SOS:81



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-617.80.04%
20-721.40.19%
19-829.00.96%
18-938.02.48%
17-1049.95.52%
16-1164.210.52%
15-1279.315.70%
14-1398.717.70%
13-14119.617.14%
12-15141.613.45%
11-16162.78.84%
10-17183.54.79%
9-18205.11.76%
8-19228.10.75%
7-20243.90.13%
6-21264.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Diego.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Boise St. (46.3)MWCN75-81L0%0.0
11-15Southeast Missouri St. (248.0)OVCN67-56W100%0.0
11-19Florida A&M (346.0)MEACH72-41W100%0.0
11-24Western Michigan (122.0)MACH0-071%6.7
11-27Xavier (26.5)BEN0-028%-7.0
12-4San Diego St. (23.8)MWCA0-017%-11.4
12-7UCLA (57.5)P12A0-024%-8.4
12-11UC Santa Barbara (143.0)BWA0-045%-1.6
12-13New Orleans (316.6)SlndH0-096%20.4
12-27Portland (158.7)WCCH0-071%6.6
12-29Gonzaga (9.8)WCCH0-019%-10.3
1-1San Francisco (100.7)WCCA0-035%-4.7
1-3Santa Clara (151.0)WCCA0-044%-1.7
1-8Loyola Marymount (196.8)WCCH0-079%9.6
1-10Pepperdine (127.5)WCCH0-065%4.6
1-15Saint Mary's (47.3)WCCA0-025%-8.2
1-17Pacific (226.1)WCCA0-066%4.9
1-24BYU (38.8)WCCH0-045%-1.4
1-29Santa Clara (151.0)WCCH0-068%5.5
1-31San Francisco (100.7)WCCH0-058%2.5
2-5Loyola Marymount (196.8)WCCA0-058%2.4
2-7Pepperdine (127.5)WCCA0-042%-2.6
2-12Pacific (226.1)WCCH0-084%12.1
2-14Saint Mary's (47.3)WCCH0-047%-1.0
2-19BYU (38.8)WCCA0-024%-8.6
2-26Gonzaga (9.8)WCCA0-07%-17.5
2-28Portland (158.7)WCCA0-048%-0.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Diego's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Diego's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Diego.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San DiegoWCC34.7226.5361.5450.628.010.33
Loyola MarymountWCC6.944.8650.0033.260.00-1.63
GonzagaWCC0.004.83100.0088.190.003.69
BYUWCC0.004.83100.0067.730.001.71
Saint Mary'sWCC0.004.83100.0068.630.001.80
PacificWCC0.004.8150.0029.090.00-2.01
PepperdineWCC0.004.79100.0054.910.000.47
PortlandWCC0.004.79100.0050.030.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.004.79100.0060.420.001.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.004.7850.0046.710.00-0.31
Boise St.MWC16.672.05100.0065.3516.670.63
San Diego St.MWC0.001.98100.0078.080.001.11
Western MichiganMAC0.001.93100.0058.180.000.32
Southeast Missouri St.OVC16.671.920.0045.38-16.67-0.18
UCLAP120.001.92100.0063.050.000.50
Florida A&MMEAC16.671.850.0020.94-16.67-1.08
New OrleansSlnd0.001.850.0029.12-0.00-0.77
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.001.850.0055.53-0.000.20
XavierBE0.001.85100.0069.730.000.73
Cal PolyBW0.000.340.0034.60-0.00-0.11
San Jose St.MWC0.000.300.0019.78-0.00-0.18
UC IrvineBW0.000.2850.0063.980.000.08
Fresno St.MWC0.000.270.0044.97-0.00-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.270.0046.87-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.240.0039.86-0.00-0.05
Utah St.MWC0.000.24100.0062.130.000.06
HawaiiBW0.000.2166.6750.960.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.200.0028.31-0.00-0.09
Washington St.P120.000.200.0033.08-0.00-0.07
StanfordP120.000.20100.0061.600.000.05
UNLVMWC0.000.20100.0056.650.000.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.180.0040.28-0.00-0.03
NevadaMWC0.000.17100.0050.990.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.17100.0069.180.000.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1733.3345.39-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.1750.0071.660.000.07
Arizona St.P120.000.17100.0055.300.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.170.0046.40-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.17100.0044.710.00-0.02
UtahP120.000.1650.0063.990.000.05
WashingtonP120.000.14100.0057.750.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.13100.0054.600.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.130.0033.32-0.00-0.04
ColoradoP120.000.13100.0070.250.000.05
USCP120.000.1350.0037.740.00-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.1350.0044.100.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.13100.0065.300.000.04
Colorado St.MWC0.000.13100.0061.310.000.03
WyomingMWC0.000.13100.0054.220.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.13100.0056.280.000.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.1350.0047.010.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.13100.0054.470.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.110.0022.38-0.00-0.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.110.0033.88-0.00-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.110.0027.02-0.00-0.05
DenverSum0.000.10100.0065.200.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.100.0036.80-0.00-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.10100.0072.380.000.05
DrakeMVC0.000.100.0029.37-0.00-0.04
MontanaBSky2.780.100.0050.94-2.780.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.100.0029.13-0.00-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.10100.0062.250.000.02
OregonP120.000.10100.0064.960.000.03
SMUAmer0.000.1050.0071.330.000.04
HowardMEAC0.000.100.0037.97-0.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.000.1033.3326.69-0.00-0.05
Montana St.BSky0.000.100.0023.96-0.00-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.100.0040.35-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1033.3364.23-0.000.03
ArizonaP120.000.10100.0072.920.000.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.080.0046.03-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.080.0051.63-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.080.0053.86-0.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.070.0033.85-0.00-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.070.0034.77-0.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0750.0060.550.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.070.0031.35-0.00-0.03
AkronMAC0.000.07100.0067.010.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0766.6762.860.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.07100.0041.420.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.07100.0051.090.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0750.0069.890.000.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.070.0039.06-0.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.070.0047.67-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0750.0063.090.000.02
UC DavisBW0.000.070.0036.13-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.070.0066.66-0.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.07100.0064.020.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.070.0033.18-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0750.0052.010.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.070.0038.23-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.07100.0059.850.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0750.0035.590.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.07100.0084.670.000.05
MissouriSEC0.000.0766.6754.700.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.070.0050.34-0.000.00
IowaB100.000.07100.0068.180.000.02
MassachusettsA100.000.07100.0062.520.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0750.0061.480.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0039.59-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0750.0052.410.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.070.0059.71-0.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0066.070.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.06100.0054.510.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.060.0044.27-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0058.150.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.06100.0059.680.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0040.670.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0066.640.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0650.0055.500.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0056.060.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.060.0065.23-0.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.20-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0069.80-0.000.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0056.240.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0633.3334.65-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0031.94-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0055.080.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.060.0032.28-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0039.95-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0070.240.000.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.040.0041.37-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.04100.0058.740.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.040.0034.89-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.040.0061.66-0.000.01
TCUB120.000.04100.0054.080.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.04100.0057.940.000.01
KansasB120.000.0450.0062.370.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.04100.0059.950.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0450.0035.040.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.040.0036.73-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.04100.0046.590.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.040.0035.06-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0450.0055.890.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0450.0053.570.000.00
VermontAE0.000.0450.0066.170.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0037.25-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0075.270.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0350.0071.270.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0027.00-0.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0350.0052.110.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.03100.0057.290.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.030.0058.20-0.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0029.46-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.030.0041.36-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0033.89-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.03100.0065.500.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.03100.0050.590.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0060.100.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0024.10-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0083.870.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0350.0037.900.00-0.01
ClemsonACC2.780.0350.0050.350.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.030.0062.99-0.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0028.57-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0350.0043.320.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.030.0034.49-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.03100.0044.320.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0055.680.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0058.77-0.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0027.16-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0087.640.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0333.3331.18-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0044.59-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.030.0046.40-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0047.61-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.0350.0060.110.000.01
USC UpstateASun2.780.03100.0051.972.780.00