San Diego

Conference:	WCC
Expected RPI:	165.0
Current RPI:	165
Expected SOS:	100
Current SOS:	100
Current Record:	14-18
Expected Record:	14-18
Current Conf Record:	9-10
Expected Conf Record:	9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-3
Current OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC RPI:	242
Expected OOC SOS:	194

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-18	165.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Diego.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-14	Northern Kentucky (264.0)	ASun	H	65-61	W	100%
11-15	Cal St. Northridge (254.0)	BW	H	71-74	L	0%
11-16	Tulsa (127.0)	CUSA	H	51-63	L	0%
11-18	Siena (295.0)	MAAC	H	77-60	W	100%
11-21	UC Santa Barbara (244.0)	BW	A	57-39	L	0%
11-24	Montana (66.0)	BSky	A	67-66	L	0%
12-1	Stephen F. Austin (65.0)	Slnd	A	56-51	L	0%
12-4	Southern Utah (314.0)	BSky	A	53-67	W	100%
12-8	Tulane (175.0)	CUSA	H	78-72	W	100%
12-15	San Diego St. (30.0)	MWC	A	72-56	L	0%
12-22	Oregon St. (181.0)	P12	N	86-79	L	0%
12-23	James Madison (182.0)	CAA	N	59-62	L	0%
12-29	Morgan St. (236.0)	MEAC	H	66-63	W	100%
1-3	Portland (231.0)	WCC	H	61-50	W	100%
1-10	San Francisco (167.0)	WCC	A	66-70	W	100%
1-12	Pepperdine (212.0)	WCC	A	50-62	W	100%
1-16	Loyola Marymount (211.0)	WCC	H	78-70	W	100%
1-19	Brigham Young (69.0)	WCC	A	74-57	L	0%
1-24	St. Mary's (29.0)	WCC	A	81-48	L	0%
1-26	Santa Clara (101.0)	WCC	H	50-64	L	0%
2-2	Gonzaga (6.0)	WCC	H	63-65	L	0%
2-4	Loyola Marymount (211.0)	WCC	A	68-69	W	100%
2-7	Brigham Young (69.0)	WCC	H	74-68	W	100%
2-9	St. Mary's (29.0)	WCC	H	64-74	L	0%
2-14	Santa Clara (101.0)	WCC	A	61-52	L	0%
2-21	Portland (231.0)	WCC	A	70-67	L	0%
2-23	Gonzaga (6.0)	WCC	A	81-50	L	0%
2-28	San Francisco (167.0)	WCC	H	70-83	L	0%
3-2	Pepperdine (212.0)	WCC	H	76-69	W	100%
3-7	Pepperdine (212.0)	WCC	N	62-59	W	100%
3-8	Brigham Young (69.0)	WCC	N	69-72	W	100%
3-9	St. Mary's (29.0)	WCC	N	69-66	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Diego's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

San Diego's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against San Diego.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
San Diego	WCC	26.54	26.54	42.47	42.47	-4.00	-4.00
Brigham Young	WCC	5.56	5.56	67.86	67.86	1.99	1.99
St. Mary's	WCC	5.56	5.56	79.31	79.31	3.26	3.26
Pepperdine	WCC	5.55	5.55	42.31	42.31	-0.85	-0.85
Loyola Marymount	WCC	4.23	4.23	33.33	33.33	-1.41	-1.41
Gonzaga	WCC	4.15	4.15	93.33	93.33	3.59	3.59
San Francisco	WCC	4.12	4.12	44.44	44.44	-0.46	-0.46
Santa Clara	WCC	4.07	4.07	60.71	60.71	0.87	0.87
Portland	WCC	4.04	4.04	28.57	28.57	-1.73	-1.73
Cal St. Northridge	BW	1.88	1.88	39.29	39.29	-0.40	-0.40
Montana	BSky	1.75	1.75	78.57	78.57	1.00	1.00
Tulsa	CUSA	1.70	1.70	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	1.69	1.69	28.57	28.57	-0.73	-0.73
Tulane	CUSA	1.69	1.69	58.06	58.06	0.27	0.27
Northern Kentucky	ASun	1.69	1.69	42.31	42.31	-0.26	-0.26
Southern Utah	BSky	1.69	1.69	32.14	32.14	-0.60	-0.60
San Diego St.	MWC	1.64	1.64	65.52	65.52	0.51	0.51
Siena	MAAC	1.62	1.62	25.81	25.81	-0.78	-0.78
Morgan St.	MEAC	1.61	1.61	54.84	54.84	0.16	0.16
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	1.59	1.59	84.62	84.62	1.10	1.10
James Madison	CAA	1.56	1.56	57.58	57.58	0.24	0.24
Oregon St.	P12	1.56	1.56	41.94	41.94	-0.25	-0.25
Pacific	BW	0.44	0.44	62.50	62.50	0.11	0.11
Cal Poly	BW	0.28	0.28	55.17	55.17	0.03	0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.27	0.27	39.29	39.29	-0.06	-0.06
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.26	0.26	32.26	32.26	-0.09	-0.09
Portland St.	BSky	0.23	0.23	23.08	23.08	-0.13	-0.13
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.23	0.23	34.38	34.38	-0.07	-0.07
Washington St.	P12	0.23	0.23	40.62	40.62	-0.04	-0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.23	0.23	38.46	38.46	-0.05	-0.05
Weber St.	BSky	0.21	0.21	80.00	80.00	0.13	0.13
Utah St.	WAC	0.20	0.20	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
Hawaii	BW	0.19	0.19	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.19	0.19	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.19	0.19	14.29	14.29	-0.13	-0.13
Long Beach St.	BW	0.19	0.19	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.16	0.16	17.24	17.24	-0.10	-0.10
California	P12	0.16	0.16	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Utah	P12	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.13	0.13	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
North Dakota	BSky	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.13	0.13	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.13	0.13	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Utah Valley	GWC	0.13	0.13	35.71	35.71	-0.04	-0.04
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	74.19	74.19	0.06	0.06
New Mexico	MWC	0.13	0.13	85.29	85.29	0.09	0.09
Baylor	B12	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Stanford	P12	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.10	0.10	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.10	0.10	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Houston	CUSA	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Rice	CUSA	0.10	0.10	13.79	13.79	-0.07	-0.07
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	70.37	70.37	0.04	0.04
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.08	0.08	23.33	23.33	-0.04	-0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Davidson	SC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.07	0.07	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Drake	MVC	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.07	0.07	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Towson	CAA	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.00	10.00	-0.05	-0.05
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	9.68	9.68	-0.05	-0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Christian	B12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Fresno St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.04	-0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.03	-0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	WAC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.02	0.02	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Radford	BSth	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Vermont	AE	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.00	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00