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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


San Diego

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:302.0
Current RPI:302
Expected SOS:230
Current SOS:230
Current Record:8-21
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:4-15
Expected Conf Record:4-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-11
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:296
Expected OOC SOS:328



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-21302.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Diego.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13USC (51.0)P12A83-45L0%0.0
11-17Western Michigan (202.0)MACA74-62L0%0.0
11-21Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWA67-55L0%0.0
11-25Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCN67-57L0%0.0
11-27San Jose St. (301.0)MWCN67-76L0%0.0
11-28Drexel (247.0)CAAN59-62W100%0.0
12-6San Diego St. (41.0)MWCN48-53W100%0.0
12-9Denver (188.0)SumH47-59L0%0.0
12-15UC Davis (281.0)BWH61-55W100%0.0
12-23Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWH81-63W100%0.0
12-31Pacific (268.0)WCCA77-75L0%0.0
1-2Saint Mary's (38.0)WCCA79-46L0%0.0
1-7San Francisco (228.0)WCCH65-73L0%0.0
1-9Santa Clara (251.0)WCCH53-65L0%0.0
1-14Portland (249.0)WCCA71-82W100%0.0
1-16Gonzaga (46.0)WCCA88-52L0%0.0
1-21Pepperdine (129.0)WCCA76-58L0%0.0
1-23Loyola Marymount (223.0)WCCA67-63L0%0.0
1-28Pepperdine (129.0)WCCH65-75L0%0.0
1-30Loyola Marymount (223.0)WCCH77-69W100%0.0
2-4Pacific (268.0)WCCH54-43W100%0.0
2-6Saint Mary's (38.0)WCCH43-60L0%0.0
2-11Santa Clara (251.0)WCCA74-71L0%0.0
2-13San Francisco (228.0)WCCA68-51L0%0.0
2-18BYU (76.0)WCCH67-69L0%0.0
2-20BYU (76.0)WCCA91-33L0%0.0
2-25Gonzaga (46.0)WCCH60-82L0%0.0
2-27Portland (249.0)WCCH85-76W100%0.0
3-4Loyola Marymount (223.0)WCCN64-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Diego's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Diego's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Diego.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San DiegoWCC26.4726.4724.8124.81-13.34-13.34
Loyola MarymountWCC6.246.2440.7440.74-1.16-1.16
Saint Mary'sWCC4.664.6682.7682.763.053.05
GonzagaWCC4.604.6076.6776.672.452.45
PepperdineWCC4.574.5753.5753.570.330.33
PortlandWCC4.544.5437.9337.93-1.10-1.10
BYUWCC4.544.5466.6766.671.511.51
Santa ClaraWCC4.544.5428.5728.57-1.94-1.94
San FranciscoWCC4.514.5144.4444.44-0.50-0.50
PacificWCC4.444.4420.8320.83-2.59-2.59
Cal St. FullertonBW2.142.1425.9325.93-1.03-1.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2.082.0829.6329.63-0.85-0.85
UC DavisBW1.961.9633.3333.33-0.65-0.65
San Jose St.MWC1.841.8418.5218.52-1.16-1.16
San Diego St.MWC1.791.7974.1974.190.860.86
DenverSum1.781.7850.0050.000.000.00
USCP121.751.7562.5062.500.440.44
DrexelCAA1.721.7220.6920.69-1.01-1.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.721.7243.3343.33-0.23-0.23
Western MichiganMAC1.721.7234.4834.48-0.54-0.54
UC IrvineBW0.450.4571.8871.880.200.20
UC RiversideBW0.420.4238.7138.71-0.09-0.09
Fresno St.MWC0.330.3371.8871.880.140.14
Long Beach St.BW0.320.3256.2556.250.040.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.300.3056.6756.670.040.04
Boise St.MWC0.290.2960.0060.000.060.06
Colorado St.MWC0.290.2950.0050.000.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.270.2728.5728.57-0.11-0.11
NevadaMWC0.240.2456.6756.670.030.03
ArizonaP120.230.2375.7675.760.120.12
New MexicoMWC0.220.2253.1253.120.010.01
UCLAP120.220.2246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.220.2283.3383.330.140.14
MontanaBSky0.200.2062.0762.070.050.05
Utah St.MWC0.200.2048.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.180.1841.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
WyomingMWC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
WashingtonP120.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
ColoradoP120.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
UtahP120.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
Portland St.BSky0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.1258.6258.620.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.110.1120.0020.00-0.07-0.07
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
CaliforniaP120.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
Washington St.P120.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
SeattleWAC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
South DakotaSum0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0914.2914.29-0.06-0.06
ElonCAA0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
James MadisonCAA0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0911.1111.11-0.07-0.07
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
LipscombASun0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
UNLVMWC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
IPFWSum0.080.0870.9770.970.040.04
BradleyMVC0.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0877.4277.420.050.05
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0829.1729.17-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0879.3179.310.050.05
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
StanfordP120.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
Green BayHorz0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
RiceCUSA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
DelawareCAA0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
TowsonCAA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0672.4172.410.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
LafayettePat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
YaleIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01