live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


San Diego

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:205.0
Current RPI:205
Expected SOS:126
Current SOS:126
Current Record:12-18
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:191
Expected OOC SOS:232



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-18205.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Diego.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11San Diego St. (98.0)MWCA69-59L0%0.0
11-14Samford (170.0)SCH65-83L0%0.0
11-17UCLA (16.0)P12A88-68L0%0.0
11-20Nicholls St. (252.0)SlndH81-72W100%0.0
11-22Bethune Cookman (346.0)MEACH96-91W100%0.0
11-26New Mexico St. (59.0)WACH51-56L0%0.0
11-30USC (40.0)P12H55-76L0%0.0
12-3Northern Arizona (335.0)BSkyA65-80W100%0.0
12-7Cal St. Fullerton (269.0)BWH82-75W100%0.0
12-11UC Santa Barbara (324.0)BWH77-68W100%0.0
12-22North Texas (339.0)CUSAA68-69W100%0.0
12-29San Francisco (94.0)WCCA80-74L0%0.0
12-31Saint Mary's (17.0)WCCA72-60L0%0.0
1-5Pacific (223.0)WCCH53-56L0%0.0
1-7Pepperdine (245.0)WCCA68-76W100%0.0
1-12Santa Clara (126.0)WCCH57-59L0%0.0
1-14BYU (65.0)WCCH88-75W100%0.0
1-19Loyola Marymount (153.0)WCCA62-69W100%0.0
1-21San Francisco (94.0)WCCH43-60L0%0.0
1-26Gonzaga (8.0)WCCA79-43L0%0.0
1-28Portland (233.0)WCCA52-68W100%0.0
2-2Loyola Marymount (153.0)WCCH53-72L0%0.0
2-4Saint Mary's (17.0)WCCH27-71L0%0.0
2-9Pacific (223.0)WCCA61-58L0%0.0
2-11Pepperdine (245.0)WCCH60-65L0%0.0
2-16BYU (65.0)WCCA82-70L0%0.0
2-18Santa Clara (126.0)WCCA58-60W100%0.0
2-23Gonzaga (8.0)WCCH38-96L0%0.0
2-25Portland (233.0)WCCH85-82W100%0.0
3-3Portland (233.0)WCCN55-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Diego's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Diego's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Diego.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San DiegoWCC26.4026.4038.4638.46-6.09-6.09
PortlandWCC5.955.9528.5728.57-2.55-2.55
GonzagaWCC4.424.4296.7796.774.144.14
Saint Mary'sWCC4.424.4286.6786.673.243.24
PacificWCC4.404.4026.6726.67-2.05-2.05
BYUWCC4.384.3867.7467.741.551.55
Santa ClaraWCC4.374.3750.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC4.344.3458.6258.620.750.75
PepperdineWCC4.314.3125.0025.00-2.15-2.15
Loyola MarymountWCC4.284.2848.1548.15-0.16-0.16
UCLAP121.911.9187.5087.501.431.43
USCP121.881.8871.8871.880.820.82
Cal St. FullertonBW1.861.8653.5753.570.130.13
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.831.8319.2319.23-1.13-1.13
San Diego St.MWC1.771.7754.8454.840.170.17
SamfordSC1.751.7551.6151.610.060.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.751.7527.5927.59-0.79-0.79
New Mexico St.WAC1.751.7582.7682.761.151.15
Nicholls St.Slnd1.751.7538.4638.46-0.40-0.40
Northern ArizonaBSky1.721.7226.6726.67-0.80-0.80
North TexasCUSA1.671.6722.2222.22-0.93-0.93
Portland St.BSky0.360.3642.8642.86-0.05-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.310.3135.7135.71-0.09-0.09
UC IrvineBW0.300.3057.5857.580.050.05
UC RiversideBW0.280.2822.2222.22-0.15-0.15
NevadaMWC0.240.2482.3582.350.160.16
San Jose St.MWC0.240.2442.8642.86-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.230.2329.0329.03-0.10-0.10
ArizonaP120.230.2388.2488.240.180.18
Long Beach St.BW0.230.2340.6240.62-0.04-0.04
UC DavisBW0.230.2362.5062.500.060.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.220.2267.8667.860.080.08
ColoradoP120.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
Oregon St.P120.180.1812.9012.90-0.13-0.13
Cal PolyBW0.170.1731.0331.03-0.07-0.07
Colorado St.MWC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.160.1637.9337.93-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.140.1412.9012.90-0.10-0.10
UT ArlingtonSB0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
UNLVMWC0.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
DaytonA100.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
South DakotaSum0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
HawaiiBW0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.120.1232.0032.00-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
MontanaBSky0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Northern ColoradoBSky0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.100.1062.0762.070.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
WyomingMWC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
StanfordP120.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
OregonP120.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
SeattleWAC0.090.0937.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0924.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0836.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0810.3410.34-0.07-0.07
UMKCWAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.083.333.33-0.07-0.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
FurmanSC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
VMISC0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
CaliforniaP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Saint LouisA100.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Texas TechB120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
RiceCUSA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
UCFAmer0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
SMUAmer0.060.0688.2488.240.040.04
BelmontOVC0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
IdahoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00