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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


San Diego

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:240.5
Current RPI:178
Expected SOS:102
Current SOS:98
Current Record:3-5
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-4
Current OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:250
Expected OOC SOS:225



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13114.50.02%
15-14130.20.26%
14-15153.60.80%
13-16169.82.64%
12-17188.16.25%
11-18207.512.05%
10-19225.918.32%
9-20243.220.80%
8-21260.318.35%
7-22275.312.08%
6-23289.16.16%
5-24301.01.81%
4-25310.30.40%
3-26318.00.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Diego.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11San Diego St. (63.7)MWCA69-59L0%0.0
11-14Samford (165.0)SCH65-83L0%0.0
11-17UCLA (16.9)P12A88-68L0%0.0
11-20Nicholls St. (257.7)SlndH81-72W100%0.0
11-22Bethune Cookman (340.5)MEACH96-91W100%0.0
11-26New Mexico St. (120.6)WACH51-56L0%0.0
11-30USC (38.7)P12H55-76L0%0.0
12-3Northern Arizona (342.0)BSkyA65-80W100%0.0
12-7Cal St. Fullerton (325.8)BWH0-067%5.4
12-11UC Santa Barbara (269.9)BWH0-057%2.2
12-22North Texas (294.9)CUSAA0-049%-0.2
12-29San Francisco (160.4)WCCA0-022%-9.2
12-31Saint Mary's (16.1)WCCA0-02%-26.0
1-5Pacific (174.3)WCCH0-040%-3.1
1-7Pepperdine (195.4)WCCA0-030%-6.1
1-12Santa Clara (246.4)WCCH0-051%0.4
1-14BYU (74.5)WCCH0-016%-12.2
1-19Loyola Marymount (167.9)WCCA0-019%-10.4
1-21San Francisco (160.4)WCCH0-040%-3.0
1-26Gonzaga (10.0)WCCA0-01%-28.6
1-28Portland (141.2)WCCA0-018%-10.8
2-2Loyola Marymount (167.9)WCCH0-037%-4.1
2-4Saint Mary's (16.1)WCCH0-05%-19.7
2-9Pacific (174.3)WCCA0-022%-9.4
2-11Pepperdine (195.4)WCCH0-050%0.1
2-16BYU (74.5)WCCA0-06%-18.4
2-18Santa Clara (246.4)WCCA0-031%-5.8
2-23Gonzaga (10.0)WCCH0-03%-22.3
2-25Portland (141.2)WCCH0-035%-4.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Diego's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Diego's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Diego.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San DiegoWCC28.3326.3932.5028.17-9.91-11.52
PacificWCC0.354.4542.8644.31-0.05-0.51
PortlandWCC0.354.4557.1449.120.05-0.08
BYUWCC0.394.4262.5065.560.101.38
GonzagaWCC0.624.42100.0091.790.623.69
Santa ClaraWCC0.354.4233.3330.94-0.12-1.68
PepperdineWCC0.004.4142.8631.58-0.00-1.63
San FranciscoWCC0.004.4185.7152.610.000.23
Saint Mary'sWCC0.004.38100.0089.060.003.43
Loyola MarymountWCC0.004.3825.0043.80-0.00-0.54
UCLAP126.251.93100.0086.216.251.40
USCP126.251.93100.0075.586.250.99
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.391.910.0033.37-0.39-0.63
Cal St. FullertonBW0.001.9028.5733.60-0.00-0.62
SamfordSC7.481.8257.1454.971.070.18
Bethune CookmanMEAC7.481.8214.2932.15-5.34-0.65
New Mexico St.WAC7.481.8271.4368.513.200.67
Nicholls St.Slnd7.421.8250.0038.470.00-0.42
Northern ArizonaBSky6.251.7812.5020.97-4.69-1.03
San Diego St.MWC6.251.7850.0068.080.000.64
North TexasCUSA0.001.7233.3330.63-0.00-0.67
UC IrvineBW0.000.3344.4453.29-0.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.3340.0043.88-0.00-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.350.2725.0043.29-0.17-0.04
NevadaMWC0.000.2777.7871.770.000.12
UC RiversideBW0.350.270.0031.31-0.35-0.10
Long Beach St.BW0.740.250.0038.43-0.74-0.06
San Jose St.MWC0.000.2450.0040.690.00-0.04
WashingtonP120.350.2357.1452.140.050.01
ArizonaP120.000.2377.7870.290.000.09
UC DavisBW0.350.2150.0045.660.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.350.2150.0064.910.000.06
Cal PolyBW0.000.1942.8641.13-0.00-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1857.1457.780.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.1855.5637.870.00-0.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.180.0022.30-0.00-0.10
Oregon St.P120.000.1725.0023.62-0.00-0.09
Washington St.P120.000.1742.8629.20-0.00-0.07
ColoradoP120.000.1775.0062.450.000.04
Colorado St.MWC0.390.1671.4360.090.170.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1562.5067.590.000.05
Boise St.MWC0.000.1550.0056.890.000.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.150.0025.31-0.00-0.07
Weber St.BSky0.000.1416.6749.78-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.1342.8650.82-0.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.390.1362.5058.130.100.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.1325.0042.78-0.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.1342.8640.38-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.390.1237.5050.92-0.100.00
UNLVMWC0.350.1262.5042.780.09-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.1220.0035.46-0.00-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1257.1443.930.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1220.0022.88-0.00-0.07
Utah St.MWC0.000.1242.8650.57-0.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1271.4355.680.000.01
UtahP120.000.1280.0058.220.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.120.0017.16-0.00-0.08
DaytonA100.000.1271.4373.270.000.05
MontanaBSky0.390.1225.0048.70-0.20-0.00
StanfordP120.000.1266.6758.600.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1116.6740.32-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.1150.0046.820.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.1175.0072.800.000.05
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1185.7175.250.000.06
Air ForceMWC0.390.1057.1448.110.06-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1042.8658.24-0.000.02
SeattleWAC0.000.1016.6738.83-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0942.8650.33-0.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0940.0054.81-0.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0920.0017.37-0.00-0.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.350.0912.5033.31-0.26-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.390.0940.0041.72-0.08-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0925.0041.19-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.450.0971.4363.080.190.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0960.0062.420.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0022.47-0.00-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.740.0950.0045.920.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0942.8644.89-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0942.8636.07-0.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0026.22-0.00-0.04
UABCUSA0.000.0950.0059.840.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0937.5035.03-0.00-0.03
WyomingMWC0.000.0966.6753.730.000.01
CaliforniaP120.620.0987.5064.760.470.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.390.0925.0030.02-0.20-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0020.63-0.00-0.05
Little RockSB0.000.0966.6761.400.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.350.0985.7169.920.250.03
Saint LouisA100.390.0925.0023.99-0.20-0.04
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0812.5029.77-0.00-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0612.5030.51-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0620.0022.08-0.00-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0620.0042.14-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0655.5649.660.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0057.950.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.620.060.0019.08-0.62-0.04
Texas TechB120.000.0687.5061.660.000.01
UCFAmer0.450.0685.7175.800.320.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0688.8967.470.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.29-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0662.5050.630.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0642.8644.90-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0612.5037.11-0.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0657.1472.530.000.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.54-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0036.38-0.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0662.5066.500.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0675.0070.570.000.03
SMUAmer0.390.0666.6766.650.130.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0657.1464.500.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0675.0058.720.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0675.0074.590.000.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3379.920.000.04
FurmanSC0.000.0642.8657.52-0.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0642.8647.68-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0612.5033.18-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0070.350.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0650.0030.320.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0671.4355.570.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0628.5723.02-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.060.0034.69-0.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.060.0016.56-0.00-0.04
AkronMAC0.000.0671.4368.930.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0622.2246.51-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0677.7872.930.000.03
Green BayHorz0.000.0637.5048.85-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0053.130.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0675.0071.330.000.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0671.4358.170.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.17-0.00-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3355.64-0.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0628.5737.54-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0657.1450.790.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0644.4438.15-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0044.700.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0655.5646.770.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.740.0671.4365.470.320.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0625.0038.98-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0666.6751.140.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0620.0060.00-0.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.450.0357.1429.760.06-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.78-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0357.1464.540.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.620.0371.4358.830.270.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0017.92-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0055.44-0.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.390.0328.5731.07-0.17-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0350.0041.460.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0314.2935.05-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0328.5738.92-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0314.2942.77-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0322.2226.44-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0316.6743.53-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.390.0362.5060.090.100.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0362.5053.550.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0387.5075.730.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0325.0035.75-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0362.5074.160.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0387.5050.250.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0357.1433.200.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.390.0344.4436.20-0.04-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0325.0026.46-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0055.480.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0325.0029.90-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.390.0342.8639.64-0.06-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.390.0387.5082.440.290.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0371.4357.210.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.43-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0360.0058.900.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0342.8656.48-0.000.00
KentuckySEC0.350.0387.5082.220.260.02
MichiganB100.000.0377.7865.840.000.01
NebraskaB100.350.0357.1444.830.05-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0377.7862.010.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6735.90-0.00-0.01