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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


San Diego

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:156.0
Current RPI:156
Expected SOS:113
Current SOS:113
Current Record:14-16
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:152
Expected OOC SOS:239



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-16156.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Diego.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8South Dakota St. (138.0)SumH74-70W100%0.0
11-9Grand Canyon (203.0)WACH70-59W100%0.0
11-14Morgan St. (225.0)MEACA61-68W100%0.0
11-16Northern Kentucky (310.0)ASunA44-75W100%0.0
11-25UIC (315.0)HorzN74-70L0%0.0
11-26UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCN83-71W100%0.0
11-27Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCN56-59W100%0.0
11-30New Mexico (12.0)MWCA73-66L0%0.0
12-5San Diego St. (15.0)MWCH64-65L0%0.0
12-15UC Santa Barbara (107.0)BWH61-72L0%0.0
12-21Southern Utah (346.0)BSkyH67-52W100%0.0
12-28Pepperdine (159.0)WCCA75-64L0%0.0
12-30Loyola Marymount (179.0)WCCA65-62L0%0.0
1-4BYU (31.0)WCCA87-53L0%0.0
1-9Loyola Marymount (179.0)WCCH74-67W100%0.0
1-11Pepperdine (159.0)WCCH65-69L0%0.0
1-16Santa Clara (210.0)WCCA66-69W100%0.0
1-18San Francisco (68.0)WCCA64-62L0%0.0
1-23Gonzaga (20.0)WCCA59-56L0%0.0
1-25Portland (178.0)WCCA63-65W100%0.0
1-30Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCH61-43W100%0.0
2-1Pacific (133.0)WCCH67-84L0%0.0
2-6San Francisco (68.0)WCCH67-74L0%0.0
2-8Santa Clara (210.0)WCCH63-69L0%0.0
2-13Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCA69-57L0%0.0
2-15Pacific (133.0)WCCA55-70W100%0.0
2-20Portland (178.0)WCCH61-59W100%0.0
2-22Gonzaga (20.0)WCCH69-66W100%0.0
3-1BYU (31.0)WCCH70-78L0%0.0
3-8San Francisco (68.0)WCCN69-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Diego's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Diego's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Diego.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San DiegoWCC26.4226.4245.2145.21-2.53-2.53
San FranciscoWCC5.915.9159.2659.261.091.09
BYUWCC4.444.4464.5264.521.291.29
Loyola MarymountWCC4.414.4137.9337.93-1.07-1.07
GonzagaWCC4.414.4183.8783.872.992.99
Saint Mary'sWCC4.364.3666.6766.671.451.45
Santa ClaraWCC4.364.3637.9337.93-1.05-1.05
PortlandWCC4.334.3351.7251.720.150.15
PepperdineWCC4.304.3042.8642.86-0.61-0.61
PacificWCC4.294.2948.1548.15-0.16-0.16
New MexicoMWC1.781.7881.2581.251.111.11
San Diego St.MWC1.771.7786.6786.671.301.30
South Dakota St.Sum1.751.7559.2659.260.320.32
Southern UtahBSky1.751.753.703.70-1.62-1.62
Grand CanyonWAC1.751.7548.0048.00-0.07-0.07
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.701.7066.6766.670.570.57
UICHorz1.671.6710.7110.71-1.31-1.31
Morgan St.MEAC1.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun1.671.6731.0331.03-0.63-0.63
Southern IllinoisMVC1.671.6741.9441.94-0.27-0.27
UNC GreensboroSC1.671.6739.2939.29-0.36-0.36
Utah St.MWC0.330.3354.8454.840.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.270.2717.2417.24-0.18-0.18
Cal PolyBW0.250.2536.6736.67-0.07-0.07
UC RiversideBW0.250.2527.5927.59-0.11-0.11
UNLVMWC0.240.2460.6160.610.050.05
NevadaMWC0.220.2246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.220.2271.8871.880.100.10
UC IrvineBW0.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
Colorado St.MWC0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.180.1825.9325.93-0.08-0.08
MontanaBSky0.170.1753.5753.570.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.170.1778.5778.570.090.09
New Mexico St.WAC0.170.1773.5373.530.080.08
BradleyMVC0.160.1637.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
ValparaisoHorz0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
AmericanPat0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
DrakeMVC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
IdahoWAC0.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.110.1143.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
UC DavisBW0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Green BayHorz0.110.1177.7877.780.060.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.110.1170.3770.370.050.05
StetsonASun0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Weber St.BSky0.110.1160.7160.710.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
OaklandHorz0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.100.10100.00100.000.100.10
SeattleWAC0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
HowardMEAC0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0846.1546.15-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
VermontAE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
DavidsonSC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
UtahP120.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.080.0859.2659.260.010.01
WyomingMWC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
MassachusettsA100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0619.2319.23-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ElonSC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
High PointBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
North FloridaASun0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.040.04
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
LehighPat0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
WoffordSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
NavyPat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Western KentuckySB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00