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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


San Diego

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:290.7
Current RPI:295
Expected SOS:205
Current SOS:257
Current Record:7-14
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:3-8
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-10
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:300
Expected OOC SOS:327



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-16227.20.09%
11-17242.20.94%
10-18260.96.89%
9-19278.525.33%
8-20294.242.25%
7-21307.524.49%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Diego.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13USC (19.7)P12A83-45L0%0.0
11-17Western Michigan (197.8)MACA74-62L0%0.0
11-21Cal St. Fullerton (280.9)BWA67-55L0%0.0
11-25Loyola Chicago (257.7)MVCN67-57L0%0.0
11-27San Jose St. (299.1)MWCN67-76L0%0.0
11-28Drexel (264.0)CAAN59-62W100%0.0
12-6San Diego St. (55.3)MWCN48-53W100%0.0
12-9Denver (213.1)SumH47-59L0%0.0
12-15UC Davis (266.2)BWH61-55W100%0.0
12-23Cal St. Northridge (274.5)BWH81-63W100%0.0
12-31Pacific (263.2)WCCA77-75L0%0.0
1-2Saint Mary's (39.3)WCCA79-46L0%0.0
1-7San Francisco (231.5)WCCH65-73L0%0.0
1-9Santa Clara (255.7)WCCH53-65L0%0.0
1-14Portland (249.8)WCCA71-82W100%0.0
1-16Gonzaga (50.2)WCCA88-52L0%0.0
1-21Pepperdine (122.3)WCCA76-58L0%0.0
1-23Loyola Marymount (228.7)WCCA67-63L0%0.0
1-28Pepperdine (122.3)WCCH65-75L0%0.0
1-30Loyola Marymount (228.7)WCCH77-69W100%0.0
2-4Pacific (263.2)WCCH54-43W100%0.0
2-6Saint Mary's (39.3)WCCH0-04%-18.6
2-11Santa Clara (255.7)WCCA0-028%-6.2
2-13San Francisco (231.5)WCCA0-025%-7.4
2-18BYU (53.4)WCCH0-09%-14.4
2-20BYU (53.4)WCCA0-03%-21.0
2-25Gonzaga (50.2)WCCH0-04%-18.5
2-27Portland (249.8)WCCH0-044%-1.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Diego's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Diego's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Diego.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San DiegoWCC26.5326.4531.8727.24-9.62-12.04
Loyola MarymountWCC5.514.6840.0040.27-1.10-0.91
PortlandWCC3.294.6639.1337.16-0.72-1.20
Santa ClaraWCC3.164.6528.5728.35-1.35-2.01
PepperdineWCC5.384.6155.0054.870.540.45
San FranciscoWCC3.104.6150.0045.910.00-0.38
Saint Mary'sWCC3.134.6184.2184.222.143.15
PacificWCC5.374.6017.6522.49-3.48-2.53
BYUWCC0.894.5969.5771.540.351.98
GonzagaWCC3.164.5876.1974.531.662.25
Cal St. FullertonBW2.962.1733.3330.26-0.99-0.86
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2.832.1431.5829.67-1.04-0.87
UC DavisBW2.672.0438.8935.51-0.59-0.59
San Jose St.MWC2.491.9121.0519.60-1.44-1.16
San Diego St.MWC2.441.8575.0073.341.220.86
DenverSum2.441.8550.0046.960.00-0.11
USCP122.441.8277.2772.241.330.81
DrexelCAA2.381.7915.0019.32-1.67-1.10
Loyola ChicagoMVC2.381.7938.1037.05-0.57-0.46
Western MichiganMAC2.381.7931.5834.30-0.88-0.56
UC IrvineBW0.530.4672.7371.670.240.20
UC RiversideBW0.580.4247.8343.92-0.03-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.290.3542.8651.33-0.040.01
Fresno St.MWC0.470.3260.0057.290.090.05
Cal PolyBW0.300.2931.5836.16-0.11-0.08
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.170.2940.0049.74-0.03-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.340.2866.6766.030.110.09
Colorado St.MWC0.390.2550.0048.750.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.290.2578.2677.230.160.14
New MexicoMWC0.170.2563.6464.090.050.07
NevadaMWC0.300.2357.8956.110.050.03
MontanaBSky0.280.2255.5660.900.030.05
UCLAP120.330.2156.5253.350.040.01
HawaiiBW0.130.2083.3380.130.080.12
Sacramento St.BSky0.300.1944.4448.52-0.03-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.170.1935.0035.36-0.05-0.06
Utah St.MWC0.170.1947.3749.38-0.01-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.230.1650.0053.090.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.230.1642.8635.05-0.03-0.05
WyomingMWC0.170.1640.9140.46-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.230.1657.1457.560.030.02
Oregon St.P120.220.1560.0054.590.040.01
WashingtonP120.220.1568.1862.190.080.04
Weber St.BSky0.100.1568.4271.820.040.07
ColoradoP120.050.1572.7366.970.020.05
CaliforniaP120.120.1363.6461.810.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.170.1361.9058.190.040.02
DrakeMVC0.160.1322.7324.85-0.09-0.06
Portland St.BSky0.170.1233.3339.27-0.06-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1273.9176.040.050.06
Idaho St.BSky0.160.1242.1142.70-0.03-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1250.0050.510.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.1252.1754.140.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1275.0073.480.050.06
Washington St.P120.160.1238.1033.45-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.060.1272.7368.550.030.04
SeattleWAC0.180.1045.0042.81-0.02-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.120.1015.7916.39-0.08-0.07
IdahoBSky0.170.0957.1457.940.020.02
StanfordP120.060.0952.6347.690.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.0961.9060.410.030.02
UNLVMWC0.060.0952.3857.440.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.095.267.22-0.10-0.08
James MadisonCAA0.170.0969.5768.670.070.04
NortheasternCAA0.060.0947.8348.69-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.170.0975.0071.280.090.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.0966.6760.120.040.02
South DakotaSum0.110.0939.1339.48-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.160.0952.1747.620.01-0.00
IPFWSum0.110.0973.9170.210.050.04
LipscombASun0.110.0921.7427.64-0.06-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.0961.9062.050.030.02
Western IllinoisSum0.110.0927.7829.23-0.05-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.110.0976.1979.640.060.05
MonmouthMAAC0.160.0979.1780.770.090.06
Green BayHorz0.130.0757.1457.880.020.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0765.0067.510.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0745.0043.19-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.120.0738.1041.23-0.03-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0661.9059.930.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0615.7922.51-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.000.0622.7323.64-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0610.0014.87-0.05-0.04
DuquesneA100.110.0666.6758.760.040.01
ElonCAA0.060.0654.5553.020.010.00
HofstraCAA0.110.0668.1865.420.040.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.0626.0925.56-0.05-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.0657.8961.920.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.110.0647.6252.92-0.010.00
RiceCUSA0.060.0625.0028.19-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.0614.2916.31-0.08-0.04
TowsonCAA0.110.0663.6457.330.030.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0670.0069.360.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.110.0663.6465.480.030.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0621.7424.60-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0631.8226.61-0.02-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0655.0048.870.01-0.00
BradleyMVC0.050.068.709.77-0.04-0.05
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0672.7372.440.020.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0638.8943.22-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.110.0654.5555.310.010.01
IUPUISum0.100.0641.6740.25-0.02-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0666.6761.680.020.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0640.9138.03-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0641.6746.85-0.01-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0659.0959.470.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.065.2610.18-0.05-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0640.9143.01-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0690.4885.550.000.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.0676.1976.220.050.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0650.0048.260.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0681.8281.010.030.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0633.3333.55-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0633.3334.18-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0669.5770.030.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0636.8441.45-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0617.3921.76-0.00-0.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0652.1750.240.000.00
OregonP120.050.0681.8278.210.030.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0365.2256.530.020.00
High PointBSth0.060.0357.8961.480.010.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0359.0959.680.010.01
La SalleA100.060.0321.0520.91-0.03-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0321.0529.16-0.03-0.01
PennIvy0.060.0335.2934.69-0.02-0.01
Penn St.B100.060.0347.8343.63-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0381.8277.440.040.02
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0385.7176.030.040.02
Wright St.Horz0.060.0354.5555.190.010.00
AkronMAC0.060.0381.8279.750.040.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0390.0086.120.050.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0357.1457.510.010.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0322.7323.37-0.03-0.02
CreightonBE0.050.0360.8759.050.010.01
DePaulBE0.060.0336.3634.95-0.02-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0345.4541.98-0.01-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0381.8281.010.040.02
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0347.6247.86-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.060.0380.9577.000.040.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0331.8232.92-0.02-0.01
MercerSC0.060.0371.4370.600.030.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0328.5728.88-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0310.0015.28-0.05-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0330.0029.98-0.02-0.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0368.1863.720.020.01
OhioMAC0.060.0360.0057.960.010.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0335.0034.93-0.02-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0368.7574.730.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0314.2913.97-0.04-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0359.0962.730.010.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0381.8278.720.040.02
LafayettePat0.050.0323.8125.26-0.03-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0318.1822.83-0.03-0.02
XavierBE0.050.0390.9184.430.040.02
YaleIvy0.050.0372.2273.760.020.01