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Through games of Mar 5, 2015.


San Diego

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:142.9
Current RPI:144
Expected SOS:105
Current SOS:104
Current Record:14-15
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:8-10
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Probability of Auto Bid:1.32%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-3
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:135
Expected OOC SOS:147



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15142.9100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Diego.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Boise St. (37.5)MWCN75-81L0%0.0
11-15Southeast Missouri St. (280.8)OVCN67-56W100%0.0
11-19Florida A&M (350.0)MEACH72-41W100%0.0
11-24Western Michigan (116.9)MACH77-70W100%0.0
11-27Xavier (41.5)BEN82-71L0%0.0
11-28Princeton (209.6)IvyN75-65W100%0.0
11-30Western Michigan (116.9)MACN68-66L0%0.0
12-4San Diego St. (26.4)MWCA57-48L0%0.0
12-7UCLA (52.7)P12A75-68L0%0.0
12-11UC Santa Barbara (89.1)BWA65-79W100%0.0
12-13New Orleans (321.2)SlndH85-60W100%0.0
12-27Portland (157.0)WCCH58-61L0%0.0
12-29Gonzaga (8.0)WCCH48-60L0%0.0
1-1San Francisco (197.3)WCCA56-57W100%0.0
1-3Santa Clara (204.8)WCCA59-56L0%0.0
1-8Loyola Marymount (246.3)WCCH59-50W100%0.0
1-10Pepperdine (144.3)WCCH47-59L0%0.0
1-15Saint Mary's (59.0)WCCA70-58L0%0.0
1-17Pacific (229.0)WCCA59-57L0%0.0
1-24BYU (39.9)WCCH77-74W100%0.0
1-29Santa Clara (204.8)WCCH69-64W100%0.0
1-31San Francisco (197.3)WCCH77-69W100%0.0
2-5Loyola Marymount (246.3)WCCA70-61L0%0.0
2-7Pepperdine (144.3)WCCA50-72W100%0.0
2-12Pacific (229.0)WCCH68-48W100%0.0
2-14Saint Mary's (59.0)WCCH62-69L0%0.0
2-19BYU (39.9)WCCA75-62L0%0.0
2-26Gonzaga (8.0)WCCA59-39L0%0.0
2-28Portland (157.0)WCCA66-78W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Diego's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Diego's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Diego.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San DiegoWCC26.5026.4848.0648.06-1.03-1.03
Loyola MarymountWCC4.484.4822.2222.22-2.49-2.49
PacificWCC4.474.4732.0032.00-1.61-1.61
GonzagaWCC4.454.4592.8692.863.823.82
BYUWCC4.454.4574.0774.072.142.14
Saint Mary'sWCC4.454.4569.2369.231.711.71
San FranciscoWCC4.424.4244.4444.44-0.49-0.49
PepperdineWCC4.424.4257.6957.690.680.68
PortlandWCC4.424.4250.0050.000.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC4.424.4238.4638.46-1.02-1.02
Western MichiganMAC3.513.5157.6957.180.540.50
Boise St.MWC1.901.9074.0774.780.920.94
San Diego St.MWC1.851.8475.0075.790.920.95
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.781.7840.7440.74-0.33-0.33
UCLAP121.781.7860.0060.000.360.36
Florida A&MMEAC1.721.727.147.14-1.48-1.48
New OrleansSlnd1.721.7231.8231.14-0.63-0.65
PrincetonIvy1.721.7248.0049.38-0.07-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.721.7257.6958.420.270.29
XavierBE1.721.7258.6258.950.300.31
San Jose St.MWC0.370.360.000.12-0.37-0.36
Cal PolyBW0.270.3044.0043.17-0.03-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.300.2944.8345.40-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.250.2559.2658.620.050.04
Fresno St.MWC0.220.2446.4345.04-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.210.2125.0025.13-0.11-0.11
Colorado St.MWC0.220.2182.7681.940.140.14
Utah St.MWC0.210.2160.7160.060.050.04
NortheasternCAA0.180.1864.5264.520.050.05
HawaiiBW0.180.1858.6259.040.030.03
UNLVMWC0.180.1851.7253.220.010.01
Washington St.P120.180.1841.3841.25-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.180.1844.4444.21-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.180.1768.9767.090.070.06
StanfordP120.170.1762.0760.280.040.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.160.1627.5929.40-0.07-0.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.160.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
NevadaMWC0.120.1525.9325.08-0.06-0.08
Murray St.OVC0.150.1585.7185.710.110.11
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.1565.5265.520.050.05
Arizona St.P120.150.1553.3354.210.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.1555.1755.550.020.02
Oregon St.P120.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.150.1522.2223.21-0.08-0.08
UtahP120.140.1478.5779.000.080.08
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.1238.4638.46-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Portland St.BSky0.120.1248.0048.03-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.120.1251.7250.300.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.120.1265.3864.200.040.03
AkronMAC0.120.1258.6257.930.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.120.1268.9769.170.050.05
Central MichiganMAC0.060.1276.0075.240.030.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.120.1253.8553.590.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.1244.4444.65-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.120.1263.3363.000.030.03
CreightonBE0.090.1243.3342.95-0.01-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.120.1240.7440.74-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.120.1248.2848.71-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.120.1271.4370.300.050.05
ColoradoP120.120.1248.2848.75-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.120.1240.0039.63-0.02-0.02
USCP120.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.120.1190.0090.050.090.09
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.107.147.09-0.09-0.09
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.1025.0024.72-0.05-0.05
DenverSum0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.1030.4330.64-0.04-0.04
MercerSC0.100.0951.7251.720.000.00
HowardMEAC0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0923.3322.92-0.05-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0964.2965.480.030.03
RiderMAAC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.0926.9229.11-0.04-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0970.3768.740.040.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0962.9662.960.020.02
IUPUISum0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.090.0921.4321.44-0.05-0.05
MontanaBSky0.090.0957.6958.450.010.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0927.5927.69-0.04-0.04
SMUAmer0.090.0978.5778.600.050.05
OregonP120.090.0973.3373.330.040.04
CaliforniaP120.090.0956.6755.470.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0737.5039.78-0.02-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.040.0754.1755.350.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0755.5656.790.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0725.9325.36-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0760.8761.030.020.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0614.8115.68-0.04-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0624.0024.00-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0685.1984.850.050.04
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
IowaB100.060.0666.6767.380.020.02
Michigan St.B100.060.0666.6766.280.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.060.0670.3771.000.030.03
RichmondA100.060.0660.0061.160.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0628.5729.65-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.060.0651.7251.660.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
UC DavisBW0.060.0680.7779.950.040.04
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0682.1482.140.040.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0631.0332.31-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.070.0640.7438.88-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0648.0048.70-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.030.0644.4444.54-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.0646.1547.14-0.01-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0670.3770.210.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
HarvardIvy0.070.0675.0075.330.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.060.0665.5265.400.020.02
MassachusettsA100.060.0656.6755.620.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.060.0641.3841.54-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.060.0644.8344.45-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
NorthwesternB100.060.0650.0048.750.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.060.0632.1432.89-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.030.0628.0028.95-0.01-0.03
PurdueB100.060.0663.3363.340.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.060.0642.3142.01-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0689.6689.660.050.05
YaleIvy0.070.0670.3768.760.030.02
MissouriSEC0.060.0627.5927.73-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.060.0668.9769.660.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0665.5265.880.020.02
MemphisAmer0.060.0660.0058.930.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0644.8343.73-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0660.0060.470.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0670.0070.110.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0655.1754.370.010.00
ButlerBE0.060.0670.0069.320.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.060.0667.8668.400.020.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0637.9339.05-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.060.0670.0069.390.020.02
Seton HallBE0.060.0655.1753.880.010.00
VillanovaBE0.060.0693.3393.140.050.05
IndianaB100.040.0463.3362.750.010.01
LamarSlnd0.040.0442.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.040.0476.9274.970.020.02
TCUB120.040.0456.6756.080.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0468.9768.960.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0380.0079.770.020.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0380.0078.510.020.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0366.6766.660.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0348.0047.69-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0355.1753.650.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0342.8642.57-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.030.0328.5727.77-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0350.0050.340.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0337.9338.68-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0342.3143.00-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0358.0659.050.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.0060.250.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.1547.44-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0333.3333.97-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0343.3343.10-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.030.0390.0088.730.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0337.0437.87-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0360.0059.670.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0337.9337.46-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0365.3865.380.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.0099.900.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.030.0370.0069.450.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0368.9768.870.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0351.7252.180.000.00