San Diego

Conference:	WCC
Expected RPI:	211.6
Current RPI:	198
Expected SOS:	111
Current SOS:	91
Current Record:	7-14
Expected Record:	9-18
Current Conf Record:	4-7
Expected Conf Record:	6-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-3
Current OOC Record:	3-7
Expected OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC RPI:	258
Expected OOC SOS:	153

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-14	138.5	0.06%
12-15	160.3	1.72%
11-16	179.6	8.64%
10-17	197.4	25.37%
9-18	214.3	35.68%
8-19	230.6	22.93%
7-20	246.5	5.59%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Diego.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-14	Stephen F. Austin (256.1)	Slnd	H	66-61	W	100%	0.0
11-20	Montana (99.2)	BSky	H	60-73	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Alcorn St. (331.5)	SWAC	N	66-65	W	100%	0.0
11-27	Tulane (174.4)	CUSA	A	65-46	L	0%	0.0
12-3	UC Irvine (259.3)	BW	A	99-79	L	0%	0.0
12-7	San Diego St. (26.1)	MWC	H	62-74	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Maine (268.4)	AE	H	77-63	W	100%	0.0
12-13	UC Santa Barbara (147.1)	BW	H	61-65	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Stanford (90.1)	P12	A	75-55	L	0%	0.0
12-22	South Alabama (196.0)	SB	N	62-68	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Brigham Young (45.6)	WCC	A	88-52	L	0%	0.0
1-5	St. Mary's (16.9)	WCC	H	72-78	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Loyola Marymount (109.2)	WCC	H	68-79	L	0%	0.0
1-12	Santa Clara (271.2)	WCC	A	62-75	W	100%	0.0
1-16	Brigham Young (45.6)	WCC	H	63-82	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Portland (215.0)	WCC	A	63-82	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Gonzaga (28.7)	WCC	A	77-60	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Pepperdine (250.3)	WCC	H	65-56	W	100%	0.0
1-28	San Francisco (154.3)	WCC	A	84-70	L	0%	0.0
2-2	St. Mary's (16.9)	WCC	A	84-73	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Santa Clara (271.2)	WCC	H	70-65	W	100%	0.0
2-9	Pepperdine (250.3)	WCC	A	0-0		38%	-3.4
2-11	San Francisco (154.3)	WCC	H	0-0		42%	-2.3
2-16	Portland (215.0)	WCC	H	0-0		66%	4.6
2-18	Cal St. Bakersfield (210.7)	ind	A	0-0		39%	-3.1
2-23	Loyola Marymount (109.2)	WCC	A	0-0		18%	-10.1
2-25	Gonzaga (28.7)	WCC	H	0-0		11%	-13.5

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Diego's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

San Diego's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against San Diego.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
San Diego	WCC	26.50	26.44	31.31	32.15	-9.90	-9.44
Portland	WCC	3.26	4.70	22.73	22.13	-1.78	-2.62
Brigham Young	WCC	5.48	4.67	72.73	74.24	2.49	2.27
San Francisco	WCC	3.13	4.66	54.55	51.81	0.28	0.17
Santa Clara	WCC	5.35	4.66	31.58	28.41	-1.97	-2.01
Pepperdine	WCC	3.18	4.66	33.33	33.97	-1.06	-1.49
Gonzaga	WCC	3.02	4.63	80.95	80.52	1.87	2.83
Loyola Marymount	WCC	3.12	4.63	57.14	55.12	0.45	0.47
St. Mary's	WCC	5.39	4.63	90.00	86.84	4.31	3.41
UC Santa Barbara	BW	2.76	2.15	52.94	56.27	0.16	0.27
Montana	BSky	2.48	1.98	70.00	72.99	0.99	0.91
UC Irvine	BW	2.45	1.93	31.58	32.77	-0.90	-0.66
Alcorn St.	SWAC	2.49	1.92	22.22	25.30	-1.39	-0.95
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	1.92	47.83	47.36	-0.00	-0.10
San Diego St.	MWC	2.45	1.89	85.00	77.30	1.71	1.03
South Alabama	SB	2.44	1.89	50.00	50.99	0.00	0.04
Tulane	CUSA	2.44	1.89	60.00	57.08	0.49	0.27
Maine	AE	2.38	1.85	50.00	49.85	0.00	-0.01
Stanford	P12	2.38	1.85	68.18	67.24	0.87	0.64
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	2.38	1.85	47.06	50.09	-0.14	0.00
Pacific	BW	0.40	0.38	35.00	37.55	-0.12	-0.09
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.32	0.37	13.64	16.23	-0.23	-0.25
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.36	0.35	21.05	22.46	-0.21	-0.19
Washington St.	P12	0.33	0.30	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.23	0.28	50.00	56.75	0.00	0.04
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.28	0.23	40.91	44.29	-0.05	-0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.32	0.23	80.00	76.71	0.19	0.12
UCLA	P12	0.22	0.23	54.55	56.78	0.02	0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.19	0.21	65.00	66.71	0.06	0.07
Long Beach St.	BW	0.24	0.21	71.43	73.45	0.10	0.10
UC Davis	BW	0.29	0.21	0.00	5.31	-0.29	-0.18
San Jose St.	WAC	0.22	0.20	27.27	26.96	-0.10	-0.09
Idaho St.	BSky	0.22	0.20	31.82	32.98	-0.08	-0.07
Seattle	ind	0.16	0.20	22.22	32.99	-0.09	-0.07
Nevada	WAC	0.21	0.20	80.95	76.42	0.13	0.10
Utah	P12	0.20	0.19	18.18	15.00	-0.13	-0.13
UC Riverside	BW	0.18	0.18	42.86	39.66	-0.03	-0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.11	0.17	45.00	41.71	-0.01	-0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.23	0.17	35.00	40.74	-0.07	-0.03
Hawaii	WAC	0.11	0.17	57.14	53.02	0.02	0.01
California	P12	0.23	0.17	75.00	74.62	0.12	0.08
Baylor	B12	0.26	0.16	90.91	83.90	0.22	0.11
Oregon	P12	0.22	0.16	69.57	64.49	0.08	0.05
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.18	0.14	16.67	26.81	-0.12	-0.06
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.12	0.14	57.14	60.72	0.02	0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.24	0.14	85.71	82.22	0.17	0.09
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.12	0.14	82.61	81.43	0.08	0.09
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.11	0.14	36.36	39.73	-0.03	-0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.23	0.14	18.18	23.34	-0.15	-0.07
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.17	0.14	83.33	84.76	0.11	0.10
New Mexico	MWC	0.17	0.13	81.82	81.02	0.11	0.08
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.13	69.57	69.00	0.02	0.05
Washington	P12	0.17	0.13	69.57	66.59	0.07	0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.11	0.13	23.81	33.67	-0.06	-0.04
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.13	100.00	94.58	0.05	0.12
St. Louis	A10	0.11	0.13	77.27	77.70	0.06	0.07
Boise St.	MWC	0.11	0.13	42.86	41.08	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.17	0.13	66.67	60.84	0.06	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.11	0.13	63.64	63.17	0.03	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.13	47.37	42.13	-0.01	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.16	0.13	66.67	68.55	0.05	0.05
Longwood	ind	0.10	0.13	28.57	25.79	-0.04	-0.06
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.13	0.11	28.57	35.72	-0.06	-0.03
Florida International	SB	0.12	0.11	33.33	37.11	-0.04	-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.12	0.11	17.39	20.75	-0.08	-0.06
Southern	SWAC	0.12	0.10	47.62	48.48	-0.01	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.10	28.57	34.11	-0.05	-0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.11	0.10	42.86	45.93	-0.02	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.06	0.10	30.00	33.22	-0.02	-0.03
Denver	SB	0.16	0.10	70.83	72.24	0.07	0.05
Florida St.	ACC	0.11	0.10	72.73	71.57	0.05	0.04
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.11	0.10	54.17	54.76	0.01	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.11	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.12	0.10	43.48	43.27	-0.02	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.10	19.05	24.60	-0.04	-0.05
Utah St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.11	0.10	40.91	42.03	-0.02	-0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.12	0.10	76.19	70.71	0.06	0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.11	0.10	30.43	31.40	-0.04	-0.04
Notre Dame	BE	0.11	0.10	65.22	62.67	0.03	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.16	0.10	36.36	40.96	-0.04	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.10	66.67	62.69	0.02	0.02
Southern California	P12	0.11	0.09	25.00	25.08	-0.05	-0.05
Butler	Horz	0.11	0.09	50.00	50.81	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.07	20.83	25.85	-0.04	-0.03
Grambling	SWAC	0.13	0.07	14.29	14.31	-0.09	-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.07	52.17	58.49	0.00	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	26.32	29.85	-0.03	-0.03
Texas A&M	B12	0.13	0.07	50.00	45.20	0.00	-0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.07	0.07	76.19	75.98	0.03	0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.07	31.82	42.18	-0.02	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.13	0.07	22.22	27.56	-0.07	-0.03
Troy	SB	0.11	0.07	28.57	30.17	-0.05	-0.03
Western Kentucky	SB	0.06	0.07	34.78	34.46	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.12	0.07	59.09	57.27	0.02	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.07	0.07	30.43	25.84	-0.03	-0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.07	25.00	23.73	-0.03	-0.04
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.07	40.91	39.81	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.06	0.07	57.69	58.54	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.11	0.07	0.00	4.04	-0.11	-0.06
Boston University	AE	0.06	0.07	50.00	53.83	0.00	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.11	0.07	33.33	34.54	-0.04	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.07	40.91	38.38	-0.02	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.06	0.07	20.83	22.81	-0.03	-0.04
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.11	0.07	25.00	28.48	-0.06	-0.03
Idaho	WAC	0.06	0.07	50.00	51.46	0.00	0.00
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.11	0.07	13.04	14.47	-0.08	-0.05
New Hampshire	AE	0.06	0.07	33.33	37.75	-0.02	-0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.00	0.07	33.33	38.39	-0.00	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.06	0.07	30.00	31.40	-0.02	-0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.11	0.07	56.52	53.94	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.06	0.07	68.18	68.98	0.02	0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.11	0.07	54.55	57.71	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.11	0.07	61.54	63.84	0.03	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.11	0.07	45.83	45.52	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.11	0.07	82.61	84.58	0.07	0.05
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.12	0.07	27.78	29.77	-0.05	-0.03
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.07	55.00	54.81	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.07	14.29	17.12	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.07	66.67	69.71	0.02	0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.07	90.48	87.91	0.04	0.05
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.07	47.62	44.58	-0.00	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.11	0.07	8.33	10.90	-0.09	-0.05
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.07	96.00	93.53	0.05	0.06
Missouri St.	MVC	0.11	0.07	54.17	57.11	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.11	0.07	31.82	34.86	-0.04	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.07	61.90	63.52	0.01	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.07	62.50	61.43	0.03	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.07	81.82	77.18	0.03	0.04
Rice	CUSA	0.11	0.07	47.62	46.51	-0.01	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.07	38.10	37.80	-0.01	-0.02
Texas Christian	MWC	0.06	0.07	57.14	49.57	0.01	-0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.06	0.07	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.00	0.07	65.22	63.55	0.00	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.11	0.06	95.83	92.00	0.10	0.05
Buffalo	MAC	0.10	0.06	68.42	66.51	0.04	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.06	69.57	61.84	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.06	77.27	73.50	0.03	0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.06	80.77	80.77	0.03	0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.06	56.52	55.22	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	40.91	42.97	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.06	75.00	74.01	0.05	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.69	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.04	43.48	44.26	-0.01	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.00	0.04	37.50	38.36	-0.00	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.04	42.86	43.11	-0.01	-0.00
High Point	BSth	0.00	0.04	31.82	32.81	-0.00	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.04	71.43	69.05	0.03	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.00	0.04	61.90	67.29	0.00	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.00	0.04	8.70	8.99	-0.00	-0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.07	0.04	44.44	45.20	-0.01	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.04	78.26	72.28	0.03	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.04	50.00	44.98	0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.07	0.04	42.11	45.89	-0.01	-0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.00	0.04	55.00	54.45	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.07	0.04	27.78	29.51	-0.03	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.06	0.04	66.67	65.98	0.02	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.06	0.03	27.27	23.78	-0.03	-0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.06	0.03	65.22	62.35	0.02	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.03	47.83	47.36	-0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.00	0.03	34.78	33.44	-0.00	-0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.06	0.03	33.33	41.30	-0.02	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.06	0.03	20.83	20.61	-0.03	-0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.06	0.03	8.33	10.84	-0.05	-0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.06	0.03	71.43	66.55	0.02	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.03	9.09	12.82	-0.05	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.06	0.03	84.00	82.62	0.04	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.00	0.03	44.44	41.65	-0.00	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.06	0.03	52.38	49.77	0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.03	39.13	42.16	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	34.78	38.43	-0.02	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.03	59.09	59.78	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.03	19.05	19.39	-0.04	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.00	0.03	69.57	71.58	0.00	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.03	9.52	13.17	-0.05	-0.02
Southern Utah	Sum	0.06	0.03	45.45	44.27	-0.01	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.03	56.52	57.20	0.01	0.00
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	39.13	44.46	-0.01	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	70.83	64.53	0.02	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.03	47.83	42.67	-0.00	-0.00