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Through games of Dec 21, 2014.


San Diego

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:92.2
Current RPI:154
Expected SOS:92
Current SOS:193
Current Record:6-5
Expected Record:17-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:118
Expected OOC SOS:106



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-622.50.02%
22-729.20.39%
21-836.91.42%
20-946.94.88%
19-1058.510.69%
18-1171.916.62%
17-1286.521.72%
16-13102.319.77%
15-14118.813.39%
14-15136.87.18%
13-16155.52.84%
12-17173.90.85%
11-18193.20.21%
10-19212.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Diego.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Boise St. (52.7)MWCN75-81L0%0.0
11-15Southeast Missouri St. (250.5)OVCN67-56W100%0.0
11-19Florida A&M (349.1)MEACH72-41W100%0.0
11-24Western Michigan (134.6)MACH77-70W100%0.0
11-27Xavier (27.9)BEN82-71L0%0.0
11-28Princeton (216.2)IvyN75-65W100%0.0
11-30Western Michigan (134.6)MACN68-66L0%0.0
12-4San Diego St. (34.7)MWCA57-48L0%0.0
12-7UCLA (80.3)P12A75-68L0%0.0
12-11UC Santa Barbara (76.6)BWA65-79W100%0.0
12-13New Orleans (234.1)SlndH85-60W100%0.0
12-27Portland (177.1)WCCH0-082%10.7
12-29Gonzaga (11.3)WCCH0-024%-8.4
1-1San Francisco (133.4)WCCA0-039%-3.2
1-3Santa Clara (220.1)WCCA0-066%4.8
1-8Loyola Marymount (259.7)WCCH0-092%16.1
1-10Pepperdine (156.8)WCCH0-075%7.9
1-15Saint Mary's (114.3)WCCA0-043%-2.1
1-17Pacific (206.3)WCCA0-068%5.5
1-24BYU (53.2)WCCH0-056%1.9
1-29Santa Clara (220.1)WCCH0-087%13.4
1-31San Francisco (133.4)WCCH0-068%5.4
2-5Loyola Marymount (259.7)WCCA0-074%7.6
2-7Pepperdine (156.8)WCCA0-048%-0.6
2-12Pacific (206.3)WCCH0-089%14.0
2-14Saint Mary's (114.3)WCCH0-071%6.4
2-19BYU (53.2)WCCA0-028%-6.7
2-26Gonzaga (11.3)WCCA0-07%-17.0
2-28Portland (177.1)WCCA0-057%2.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Diego's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Diego's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Diego.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San DiegoWCC28.2526.5055.3258.753.014.63
Loyola MarymountWCC0.484.4825.0024.17-0.24-2.32
PacificWCC0.514.4855.5639.790.06-0.92
GonzagaWCC0.194.4690.9191.170.153.67
BYUWCC0.214.4670.0069.200.081.71
Saint Mary'sWCC0.254.4662.5059.050.060.81
San FranciscoWCC0.004.4345.4552.60-0.000.23
PepperdineWCC0.004.4366.6757.090.000.63
PortlandWCC0.004.4370.0052.130.000.19
Santa ClaraWCC0.004.4344.4438.02-0.00-1.06
Western MichiganMAC9.093.5157.1452.381.300.17
Boise St.MWC4.551.9175.0071.902.270.84
San Diego St.MWC4.551.8570.0071.941.820.81
Southeast Missouri St.OVC4.551.7944.4447.82-0.51-0.08
UCLAP124.551.7863.6453.081.240.11
Florida A&MMEAC4.551.720.0012.26-4.55-1.30
New OrleansSlnd4.551.7225.0048.47-2.27-0.05
PrincetonIvy4.551.7236.3643.43-1.24-0.23
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.551.7242.8667.01-0.650.59
XavierBE4.551.7270.0066.681.820.58
San Jose St.MWC0.690.370.006.54-0.69-0.32
Cal PolyBW0.000.3037.5041.68-0.00-0.05
Long Beach St.BW1.310.2936.3650.65-0.360.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.2544.4448.17-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.2427.2729.51-0.00-0.10
Colorado St.MWC0.280.21100.0078.190.280.12
Cal St. FullertonBW0.190.2136.3637.27-0.05-0.05
Utah St.MWC0.000.2154.5548.690.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.510.1870.0059.740.200.04
UC RiversideBW0.190.1850.0042.770.00-0.03
UNLVMWC0.000.1866.6750.030.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.1866.6754.450.000.02
StanfordP120.000.1866.6758.210.000.03
Washington St.P120.280.1845.4530.45-0.03-0.07
St. John'sBE0.000.1788.8965.680.000.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.230.1620.0045.83-0.14-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.210.1560.0064.830.040.05
Arizona St.P120.000.1554.5549.050.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.210.1533.3346.57-0.07-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.1511.1125.40-0.00-0.07
Ball St.MAC0.210.1525.0037.11-0.10-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.210.1518.1822.91-0.13-0.08
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.280.1577.7869.870.160.06
Oregon St.P120.000.1570.0051.560.000.00
UtahP120.210.1480.0080.490.120.09
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1312.5026.95-0.00-0.06
AkronMAC0.000.1260.0056.450.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.1277.7871.240.000.05
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1285.7170.650.000.05
DrakeMVC0.510.1218.1819.54-0.32-0.08
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1275.0066.160.000.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1242.8633.60-0.00-0.04
ToledoMAC0.000.1263.6461.500.000.03
Portland St.BSky0.000.1250.0042.750.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.210.12100.0075.560.210.06
USCP120.000.1263.6440.160.00-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.1250.0055.800.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.1272.7361.760.000.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.1237.5037.29-0.00-0.03
WyomingMWC0.230.1280.0073.560.140.06
CreightonBE0.000.1269.2349.070.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.1266.6757.910.000.02
ArizonaP120.210.11100.0082.820.210.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.230.100.0016.07-0.23-0.07
Nicholls St.Slnd0.190.100.0018.31-0.19-0.06
DenverSum0.450.1041.6751.30-0.080.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.1016.6736.42-0.00-0.03
MercerSC0.280.0944.4443.16-0.03-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.230.0975.0067.220.110.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0950.0068.830.000.03
HowardMEAC0.000.0930.0043.77-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0916.6735.21-0.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.230.0933.3361.51-0.080.02
RiderMAAC0.190.0950.0052.960.000.01
MontanaBSky0.250.0922.2247.34-0.14-0.00
IUPUISum0.210.0927.2728.77-0.09-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.190.0920.0026.61-0.11-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.230.0927.2735.54-0.10-0.03
SMUAmer0.280.0972.7375.960.130.05
OregonP120.000.0970.0057.400.000.01
CaliforniaP120.190.0990.9168.430.150.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0720.0044.35-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0716.6739.50-0.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0733.3334.44-0.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.680.0754.5545.090.06-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.250.0714.2914.63-0.18-0.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.190.0780.0076.780.110.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0620.0029.06-0.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0640.0042.88-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0611.1129.44-0.00-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0666.6764.890.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0637.5031.93-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0687.5085.130.000.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.210.0666.6778.090.070.04
IowaB100.000.0666.6759.170.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0677.7858.610.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0630.0028.63-0.00-0.03
Michigan St.B100.000.0666.6766.950.000.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0650.0060.240.000.01
NorthwesternB100.510.0663.6442.700.14-0.01
OaklandHorz0.510.0627.2732.26-0.23-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0642.8637.93-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0666.6773.340.000.03
RichmondA100.000.0660.0057.960.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0032.85-0.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0655.5646.470.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0687.5067.460.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0681.8272.960.000.03
MissouriSEC0.430.0640.0032.37-0.09-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0637.5035.77-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0618.1830.67-0.00-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.0640.0034.38-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0640.0051.94-0.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0666.6769.260.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0650.0046.480.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.0650.0048.150.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0660.0076.800.000.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0680.0073.040.000.03
HarvardIvy0.000.0675.0063.910.000.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0654.5551.400.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0654.5559.550.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0023.75-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0650.0071.160.000.03
PennIvy0.000.0637.5033.40-0.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.0666.6759.240.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0618.1827.26-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.230.0610.0026.86-0.18-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.0637.5044.53-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0666.6763.060.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.400.0663.6472.270.110.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0666.6763.320.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0660.0061.850.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0660.0042.970.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0620.0053.25-0.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.210.0670.0064.920.080.02
AlabamaSEC0.210.0670.0052.050.080.00
ButlerBE0.000.0672.7368.580.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.0660.0034.330.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0670.0059.760.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0660.0049.390.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0675.0057.450.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0681.8263.950.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0083.420.000.04
IndianaB100.000.0481.8263.040.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0414.2936.23-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0455.5673.940.000.02
TCUB120.450.04100.0068.320.450.01
Texas A&MSEC0.450.0470.0061.360.180.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.230.030.0028.78-0.23-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.230.0380.0072.430.140.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0363.6464.930.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0037.510.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0370.0052.340.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.230.0333.3337.25-0.08-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6737.43-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0014.49-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0344.4449.08-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0362.5041.050.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.250.0337.5053.02-0.060.00
KansasB120.280.0390.0071.080.230.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.250.0375.0061.160.130.01
SeattleWAC0.280.0340.0046.92-0.06-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.250.0314.2930.32-0.18-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0340.0053.58-0.000.00
WisconsinB100.250.0390.9188.760.210.02
ClemsonACC0.230.0360.0043.870.05-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0013.95-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0336.3646.70-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0333.3338.20-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.190.0337.5039.38-0.05-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0340.0047.08-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.190.0333.3329.75-0.06-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.230.0336.3645.36-0.06-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0350.0051.710.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0310.0018.51-0.00-0.02
LafayettePat0.190.0366.6768.370.060.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0325.0035.29-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.190.0330.0039.53-0.08-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0338.4644.44-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.230.0350.0057.910.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.230.0337.5056.99-0.060.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.190.0336.3647.95-0.05-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.190.0340.0055.83-0.040.00
USC UpstateASun0.230.0363.6467.200.060.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0345.4537.63-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.210.0316.6733.12-0.14-0.01
PittsburghACC0.210.0370.0052.280.080.00
AuburnSEC0.210.0350.0039.580.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.190.0362.5071.550.050.01
KentuckySEC0.190.03100.0096.240.190.03
North CarolinaACC0.190.0372.7374.520.090.01
OklahomaB120.190.0370.0062.800.080.01
UABCUSA0.190.0330.0035.75-0.08-0.01