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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


San Diego St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:24.3
Current RPI:51
Expected SOS:93
Current SOS:130
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:23-5
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC RPI:23
Expected OOC SOS:110



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-03.20.12%
27-15.11.22%
26-26.64.32%
25-39.510.07%
24-413.417.23%
23-518.219.68%
22-624.618.57%
21-733.614.39%
20-844.58.29%
19-956.93.83%
18-1071.61.53%
17-1189.60.47%
16-12104.50.19%
15-13129.50.06%
14-14156.00.01%
11-17182.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Diego St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Cal St. Northridge (211.5)BWH79-58W100%0.0
11-18Utah (34.5)P12H53-49W100%0.0
11-20Cal St. Bakersfield (306.0)WACH51-27W100%0.0
11-24BYU (34.5)WCCN0-059%2.7
12-4San Diego (122.8)WCCH0-087%13.3
12-7Washington (96.8)P12A0-060%2.9
12-10Long Beach St. (78.5)BWH0-085%12.3
12-17Cincinnati (54.5)AmerA0-056%1.7
12-20Ball St. (233.5)MACH0-097%21.8
12-22UC Riverside (307.6)BWH0-098%25.7
12-31Air Force (195.5)MWCH0-092%17.2
1-3Fresno St. (210.4)MWCA0-083%11.4
1-6New Mexico (112.4)MWCH0-084%11.9
1-14Wyoming (69.3)MWCA0-055%1.5
1-17UNLV (108.8)MWCH0-087%13.5
1-20Air Force (195.5)MWCA0-080%10.0
1-24Colorado St. (72.4)MWCA0-062%3.7
1-27Fresno St. (210.4)MWCH0-094%18.6
1-31Utah St. (137.9)MWCH0-088%14.2
2-4Nevada (164.3)MWCA0-074%7.6
2-8Boise St. (78.3)MWCA0-061%3.5
2-11Wyoming (69.3)MWCH0-077%8.7
2-14Colorado St. (72.4)MWCH0-082%10.9
2-17New Mexico (112.4)MWCA0-065%4.7
2-21San Jose St. (306.8)MWCA0-093%17.8
2-28Boise St. (78.3)MWCH0-081%10.7
3-4UNLV (108.8)MWCA0-070%6.3
3-7Nevada (164.3)MWCH0-089%14.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Diego St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Diego St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Diego St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San Diego St.MWC31.9426.40100.0080.8631.9416.29
Colorado St.MWC0.004.50100.0065.050.001.35
UNLVMWC0.004.5075.0055.470.000.49
Boise St.MWC0.004.5075.0065.690.001.41
New MexicoMWC0.004.5075.0062.050.001.08
NevadaMWC0.004.4933.3349.00-0.00-0.09
Fresno St.MWC0.004.490.0034.80-0.00-1.37
WyomingMWC0.004.47100.0073.560.002.10
Air ForceMWC0.004.4650.0048.450.00-0.14
Utah St.MWC0.002.8775.0059.110.000.52
San Jose St.MWC0.002.830.0017.96-0.00-1.82
Long Beach St.BW0.002.0133.3355.22-0.000.21
UtahP1216.672.00100.0072.1816.670.89
UC RiversideBW2.781.970.0029.17-2.78-0.82
BYUWCC0.001.95100.0071.110.000.82
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC16.671.910.0032.80-16.67-0.66
Cal St. NorthridgeBW16.671.9166.6745.755.56-0.16
San DiegoWCC0.001.9166.6749.670.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.001.88100.0058.170.000.31
Ball St.MAC2.781.820.0037.58-2.78-0.45
CincinnatiAmer0.001.79100.0064.490.000.52
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.3533.3335.92-0.00-0.10
Cal PolyBW0.000.3250.0037.760.00-0.08
UC DavisBW0.000.32100.0042.650.00-0.05
CaliforniaP120.000.3275.0069.830.000.13
ColoradoP120.000.3266.6760.720.000.07
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.3125.0066.02-0.000.10
PacificWCC0.000.2950.0029.910.00-0.12
PepperdineWCC0.000.26100.0050.830.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.2650.0063.070.000.07
HawaiiBW2.080.2575.0054.791.040.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2333.3327.10-0.00-0.10
PortlandWCC0.000.22100.0051.660.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.220.0055.87-0.000.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.2050.0044.850.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.19100.0071.830.000.08
UCLAP120.000.19100.0062.510.000.05
StanfordP120.000.1975.0071.090.000.08
USCP120.000.1950.0027.780.00-0.08
ArizonaP122.080.18100.0069.322.080.07
SeattleWAC0.000.1633.3349.04-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.000.1633.3327.58-0.00-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1650.0049.760.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky2.080.150.0023.51-2.08-0.08
Arizona St.P120.000.15100.0056.330.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1366.6746.620.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.1366.6746.900.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.13100.0087.190.000.10
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.130.0025.50-0.00-0.06
San FranciscoWCC0.000.13100.0062.040.000.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.13100.0054.710.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.130.0048.00-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.1350.0061.440.000.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.130.0053.10-0.000.01
OregonP120.000.13100.0071.440.000.05
Idaho St.BSky0.000.120.0028.34-0.00-0.05
HoustonAmer0.000.12100.0065.060.000.04
Southern UtahBSky0.000.120.0019.17-0.00-0.08
South DakotaSum0.000.120.0042.57-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.1250.0068.880.000.05
TempleAmer0.000.1250.0053.100.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.080.1025.0033.97-1.04-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.100.0028.76-0.00-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.10100.0045.990.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.09100.0077.070.000.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0018.27-0.00-0.06
Oregon St.P120.000.09100.0049.460.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.09100.0050.420.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.09100.0030.790.00-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0966.6749.370.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.09100.0059.190.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0933.3349.33-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0966.6754.020.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0950.0035.040.00-0.03
KansasB120.000.0950.0061.790.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0925.0059.16-0.000.02
ArmyPat0.000.07100.0066.100.000.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0750.0051.120.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.07100.0063.550.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.070.0031.61-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0766.6751.200.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0733.3354.70-0.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.07100.0056.980.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.070.0028.08-0.00-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0061.500.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0046.020.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0650.0054.970.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0025.43-0.00-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0049.250.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.060.0057.63-0.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0047.120.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.06100.0070.980.000.03
MercerSC0.000.0650.0052.260.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0650.0051.860.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0633.3364.19-0.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0633.3355.40-0.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0069.180.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.06100.0084.890.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0078.630.000.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.060.0040.40-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.060.0067.09-0.000.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.060.0048.20-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.060.0033.25-0.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3364.76-0.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0650.0041.480.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0019.92-0.00-0.04
George MasonA100.000.0625.0019.94-0.00-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0650.0062.580.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0038.72-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.060.0032.07-0.00-0.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3362.56-0.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.06100.0076.190.000.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.060.0033.55-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.060.0066.25-0.000.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0666.6767.990.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0046.730.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0033.75-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0333.3341.92-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0366.6763.730.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0350.0053.000.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0037.13-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6760.610.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0029.55-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0064.090.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6768.230.000.01
High PointBSth2.080.0375.0055.791.040.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0025.73-0.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0366.6752.030.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0350.0031.810.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0366.6746.540.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0366.6754.240.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0333.3322.74-0.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0375.0060.410.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0366.6734.100.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.17-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0350.0056.270.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0350.0058.120.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0350.0046.250.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0032.69-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0052.540.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0068.160.000.01
TexasB120.000.03100.0081.740.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0063.44-0.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0052.920.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0045.350.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.030.0044.01-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC2.080.0325.0031.88-1.04-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.030.0050.76-0.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0085.100.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0045.600.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6752.320.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0072.02-0.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.03100.0046.040.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3343.68-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0366.6753.050.000.00
VCUA100.000.03100.0073.570.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.030.0045.12-0.00-0.00