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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


San Diego St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:86.0
Current RPI:121
Expected SOS:104
Current SOS:119
Current Record:10-7
Expected Record:18-10
Current Conf Record:3-4
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:98
Expected OOC SOS:156



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-744.61.01%
20-853.56.96%
19-964.318.64%
18-1077.628.08%
17-1193.824.52%
16-12112.414.02%
15-13132.05.35%
14-14151.91.30%
13-15173.10.09%
12-16198.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Diego St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Arizona St. (31.9)P12A90-68L0%0.0
11-17McNeese St. (297.6)SlndH83-52W100%0.0
11-20Eastern Illinois (270.0)OVCH94-63W100%0.0
11-23Sacramento St. (279.0)BSkyN52-89W100%0.0
11-24Georgia (68.2)SECN75-68W100%0.0
11-26Washington St. (167.1)P12N86-93L0%0.0
11-30San Diego (141.9)WCCA57-66W100%0.0
12-3Bradley (123.9)MVCH75-52W100%0.0
12-9California (190.5)P12H62-63L0%0.0
12-21Gonzaga (33.1)WCCH72-70W100%0.0
12-27Wyoming (101.5)MWCA82-69L0%0.0
12-30Utah St. (167.7)MWCH79-59W100%0.0
1-2Colorado St. (176.5)MWCA68-77W100%0.0
1-9San Jose St. (304.5)MWCH85-49W100%0.0
1-13Boise St. (39.5)MWCA83-80L0%0.0
1-17Fresno St. (103.9)MWCH73-77L0%0.0
1-20New Mexico (157.9)MWCA79-75L0%0.0
1-24Colorado St. (176.5)MWCH0-089%13.8
1-27UNLV (123.3)MWCA0-051%0.4
2-3Air Force (250.5)MWCH0-095%18.8
2-6Fresno St. (103.9)MWCA0-052%0.6
2-10Nevada (15.0)MWCA0-028%-6.5
2-14Wyoming (101.5)MWCH0-082%10.0
2-17UNLV (123.3)MWCH0-073%6.8
2-21Air Force (250.5)MWCA0-087%12.4
2-24San Jose St. (304.5)MWCA0-092%15.3
2-27Boise St. (39.5)MWCH0-061%3.0
3-3Nevada (15.0)MWCH0-050%-0.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Diego St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Diego St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Diego St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San Diego St.MWC26.3626.3457.5362.033.976.34
Colorado St.MWC3.424.4947.3743.91-0.18-0.55
NevadaMWC0.474.4685.7183.460.342.98
Boise St.MWC3.414.4577.7877.511.892.45
San Jose St.MWC3.244.4412.5013.47-2.43-3.25
UNLVMWC0.384.4373.6867.170.181.52
WyomingMWC3.244.4258.8256.660.570.59
Air ForceMWC0.324.3537.5033.58-0.08-1.43
Fresno St.MWC3.244.3564.7162.610.951.10
Utah St.MWC3.412.7947.3747.07-0.18-0.16
New MexicoMWC3.272.7642.1146.79-0.52-0.18
San DiegoWCC3.031.9166.6759.591.010.37
Sacramento St.BSky3.091.9117.6525.33-2.00-0.94
CaliforniaP123.101.9033.3328.75-1.03-0.81
GonzagaWCC3.011.8885.0086.032.111.35
Arizona St.P123.021.8877.7875.311.680.95
Washington St.P123.021.8847.0640.19-0.18-0.37
BradleyMVC3.031.8268.4259.871.120.36
Eastern IllinoisOVC3.011.8231.2535.24-1.13-0.54
GeorgiaSEC2.941.7970.5957.861.210.28
McNeese St.Slnd2.941.7930.7732.57-1.13-0.62
PacificWCC0.310.3945.0044.46-0.03-0.04
ColoradoP120.380.3460.0053.730.080.02
OregonP120.310.3365.0063.830.090.09
Saint Mary'sWCC0.560.3090.4888.940.450.24
PortlandWCC0.470.2827.7827.30-0.21-0.12
Santa ClaraWCC0.230.2433.3332.96-0.08-0.08
ArizonaP120.230.2480.0078.980.140.14
UtahP120.150.2461.1158.950.030.04
San FranciscoWCC0.310.2450.0048.740.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.330.2227.7829.11-0.15-0.09
Southern UtahBSky0.160.2137.5033.78-0.04-0.07
Oregon St.P120.160.2157.8950.810.030.00
DenverSum0.170.1933.3336.47-0.06-0.05
Idaho St.BSky0.330.1843.7540.93-0.04-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.310.1856.2557.400.040.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.160.1852.6350.250.010.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.160.1838.8946.03-0.04-0.01
StanfordP120.240.1855.0050.370.020.00
WashingtonP120.230.1870.0061.440.090.04
Illinois St.MVC0.150.1847.3745.87-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.240.1650.0047.670.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.160.1568.4264.200.060.04
EvansvilleMVC0.300.1552.6347.360.02-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.300.1583.3384.230.200.10
BYUWCC0.150.1580.9576.230.090.08
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.1558.8257.140.010.02
IdahoBSky0.160.1564.7166.850.050.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.180.137.1414.82-0.15-0.09
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.1330.0036.48-0.03-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1344.4446.100.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.070.1357.8950.210.010.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.240.1217.6519.33-0.16-0.08
Long Beach St.BW0.160.1240.0043.34-0.03-0.02
IUPUIHorz0.310.1227.7829.84-0.14-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.1277.7871.650.080.05
Portland St.BSky0.230.1258.8263.210.040.03
UTEPCUSA0.230.1233.3334.11-0.08-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.150.1210.5318.34-0.12-0.08
DrakeMVC0.160.1255.0049.070.02-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.070.1270.0068.420.030.04
South CarolinaSEC0.160.1261.1151.900.040.00
UCLAP120.160.1265.0062.040.050.03
USCP120.160.1271.4368.300.070.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.230.1221.0544.26-0.14-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.1247.0652.51-0.000.01
UC DavisBW0.160.1258.8262.450.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.150.1230.0039.93-0.06-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.1052.9452.620.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.160.1042.1143.50-0.03-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.080.1017.6523.89-0.05-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.190.1083.3381.350.120.06
Cal PolyBW0.160.0923.5328.21-0.08-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.150.0970.0071.230.060.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.0911.1115.30-0.12-0.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.240.0956.2556.810.030.01
Kansas St.B120.160.0973.6862.720.080.02
ValparaisoMVC0.150.0950.0051.360.000.00
WinthropBSth0.160.0946.6758.78-0.010.02
FloridaSEC0.070.0973.6871.550.030.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.090.0010.65-0.07-0.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0921.0539.47-0.04-0.02
RiceCUSA0.070.0911.1117.69-0.06-0.06
TCUB120.070.0973.6865.590.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.075.8819.37-0.09-0.04
LamarSlnd0.000.0750.0054.850.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.110.0737.5045.22-0.03-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.110.0750.0051.480.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.0752.9455.040.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.180.0744.4446.64-0.02-0.00
ArmyPat0.000.0761.1160.530.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0744.4445.98-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.090.0771.4374.650.040.03
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0760.0060.340.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.090.0770.5975.930.040.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0736.8432.790.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0726.3231.52-0.04-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0735.2940.48-0.03-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.170.0742.8635.25-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0745.0049.27-0.01-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.077.6923.28-0.07-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.180.067.6920.09-0.15-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0658.8249.760.02-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0629.4133.22-0.03-0.02
George MasonA100.080.0645.0041.35-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.090.0673.6872.360.040.03
MarquetteBE0.170.0668.4260.530.060.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0657.8953.190.010.00
Iowa St.B120.080.0661.1147.260.02-0.00
MontanaBSky0.080.0670.5973.140.030.03
SMUAmer0.080.0670.0070.630.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.160.0670.5969.610.070.02
Little RockSB0.150.0622.2225.26-0.08-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.160.0650.0051.650.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.070.0629.4134.76-0.03-0.02
AuburnSEC0.080.0689.4777.030.060.03
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0622.2228.59-0.05-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0689.4785.520.060.04
Florida St.ACC0.070.0673.6869.610.030.02
LSUSEC0.080.0661.1153.160.020.00
MississippiSEC0.160.0652.6345.860.01-0.00
SeattleWAC0.160.0657.8954.500.030.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0672.2272.970.040.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0672.2268.920.000.02
TulaneAmer0.070.0663.1657.900.020.01
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0636.8435.55-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0610.0019.620.00-0.03
IllinoisB100.000.0647.3744.270.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0630.0032.530.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0658.8261.440.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0668.7563.960.000.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0661.1160.790.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0683.3381.410.000.04
Texas TechB120.000.0678.9571.810.000.02
HoustonAmer0.110.0478.9572.990.060.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.0443.7554.09-0.010.00
PittsburghACC0.110.0440.0030.87-0.02-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0443.7549.100.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0480.0078.860.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0331.5832.72-0.03-0.01
Green BayHorz0.090.0325.0027.94-0.04-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0370.0068.220.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0323.5328.70-0.05-0.01
NebraskaB100.090.0366.6759.780.030.01
South AlabamaSB0.090.0350.0045.900.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0318.7536.76-0.05-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0357.1460.400.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.080.0368.4258.990.030.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0350.0052.440.000.00
BryantNEC0.080.039.5217.08-0.07-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.030.003.12-0.07-0.03
DelawareCAA0.070.0347.3743.04-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0366.6765.360.020.01
Georgia TechACC0.080.0352.6343.120.00-0.00
KansasB120.080.0384.2179.740.050.02
KentuckySEC0.080.0373.6867.950.040.01
LongwoodBSth0.080.0317.6517.23-0.05-0.02
MarylandB100.070.0370.0065.320.030.01
MassachusettsA100.080.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0372.2258.940.000.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0366.6763.200.030.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0325.0028.02-0.04-0.01
New HampshireAE0.070.0329.4138.15-0.03-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.070.0363.1663.180.020.01
St. John'sBE0.080.0347.3742.18-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.080.0352.6351.730.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0368.4263.980.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.080.0311.1117.96-0.06-0.02
UTSACUSA0.070.0341.1839.65-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.080.0360.0059.690.020.01
VermontAE0.070.0373.6877.120.030.02
Wichita St.Amer0.080.0378.9577.360.040.02
WoffordSC0.080.0368.7563.620.030.01
XavierBE0.080.0385.7180.080.060.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0321.0523.50-0.04-0.02
CreightonBE0.070.0375.0070.690.040.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0310.5327.31-0.06-0.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0380.9576.520.040.02
TexasB120.070.0363.1657.620.020.00
VillanovaBE0.070.0394.7490.310.060.02