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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


San Diego St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:41.0
Current RPI:41
Expected SOS:61
Current SOS:61
Current Record:23-9
Expected Record:23-9
Current Conf Record:18-3
Expected Conf Record:18-3
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:15-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:103
Expected OOC SOS:2



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-941.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Diego St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Illinois St. (114.0)MVCH71-60W100%0.0
11-16Utah (8.0)P12A81-76L0%0.0
11-21Arkansas Little Rock (42.0)SBH43-49L0%0.0
11-23East Carolina (217.0)AmerH79-54W100%0.0
11-26California (16.0)P12N72-58W100%0.0
11-27West Virginia (10.0)B12N50-72L0%0.0
12-1Long Beach St. (79.0)BWA72-76W100%0.0
12-6San Diego (302.0)WCCN48-53L0%0.0
12-10Nicholls St. (313.0)SlndH84-47W100%0.0
12-18Grand Canyon (91.0)WACH45-52L0%0.0
12-22Kansas (1.0)B12H57-70L0%0.0
12-30Wyoming (187.0)MWCH67-55W100%0.0
1-2Utah St. (151.0)MWCA67-70W100%0.0
1-6San Jose St. (301.0)MWCH77-62W100%0.0
1-13Colorado St. (181.0)MWCA62-69W100%0.0
1-16Boise St. (101.0)MWCA53-56W100%0.0
1-19Fresno St. (66.0)MWCH73-67W100%0.0
1-23Utah St. (151.0)MWCH70-55W100%0.0
1-26Nevada (118.0)MWCA54-57W100%0.0
1-30UNLV (147.0)MWCA52-67W100%0.0
2-2Colorado St. (181.0)MWCH69-67W100%0.0
2-6New Mexico (141.0)MWCH78-71W100%0.0
2-10Fresno St. (66.0)MWCA58-57L0%0.0
2-13Air Force (226.0)MWCH70-61W100%0.0
2-21San Jose St. (301.0)MWCA56-78W100%0.0
2-24Wyoming (187.0)MWCA61-73W100%0.0
2-27Boise St. (101.0)MWCH63-66L0%0.0
3-1New Mexico (141.0)MWCA56-83W100%0.0
3-5UNLV (147.0)MWCH92-56W100%0.0
3-10Utah St. (151.0)MWCN71-65W100%0.0
3-11Nevada (118.0)MWCN67-55W100%0.0
3-12Fresno St. (66.0)MWCN63-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Diego St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Diego St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Diego St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San Diego St.MWC26.4826.4869.3869.3810.2610.26
Fresno St.MWC5.625.6272.4172.412.522.52
Utah St.MWC5.565.5653.8553.850.430.43
Colorado St.MWC4.194.1953.3353.330.280.28
NevadaMWC4.094.0960.7160.710.880.88
New MexicoMWC4.084.0856.6756.670.540.54
WyomingMWC4.084.0842.8642.86-0.58-0.58
UNLVMWC4.074.0755.1755.170.420.42
San Jose St.MWC4.074.0723.0823.08-2.19-2.19
Boise St.MWC4.054.0560.7160.710.870.87
Air ForceMWC2.592.5941.3841.38-0.45-0.45
CaliforniaP121.711.7171.8871.880.750.75
UtahP121.631.6375.0075.000.820.82
West VirginiaB121.631.6375.7675.760.840.84
KansasB121.631.6387.5087.501.221.22
San DiegoWCC1.621.6225.0025.00-0.81-0.81
East CarolinaAmer1.611.6138.7138.71-0.36-0.36
Long Beach St.BW1.611.6158.0658.060.260.26
Nicholls St.Slnd1.611.6126.6726.67-0.75-0.75
Arkansas Little RockSB1.591.5986.6786.671.161.16
Grand CanyonWAC1.561.5678.5778.570.890.89
Illinois St.MVC1.561.5656.6756.670.210.21
ArizonaP120.320.3275.7675.760.170.17
OregonP120.320.3281.8281.820.200.20
Montana St.BSky0.270.2743.3343.33-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.250.2567.7467.740.090.09
BYUWCC0.230.2368.7568.750.090.09
UC IrvineBW0.230.2371.8871.880.100.10
ColoradoP120.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
Oregon St.P120.190.1960.0060.000.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.180.1872.4172.410.080.08
PacificWCC0.180.1823.0823.08-0.10-0.10
Wichita St.MVC0.180.1874.1974.190.090.09
Cal PolyBW0.170.1728.5728.57-0.07-0.07
Kansas St.B120.170.1751.5251.520.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
PortlandWCC0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
UC DavisBW0.150.1532.1432.14-0.05-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
HawaiiBW0.150.1583.3383.330.100.10
Northern IowaMVC0.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
USCP120.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
UCLAP120.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Texas TechB120.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
TCUB120.140.1436.3636.36-0.04-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.130.1318.5218.52-0.08-0.08
Utah ValleyWAC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
SeattleWAC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
HoustonAmer0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.130.1328.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
EvansvilleMVC0.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
UC RiversideBW0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
BaylorB120.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
OklahomaB120.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
DenverSum0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1083.8783.870.070.07
BradleyMVC0.100.1012.9012.90-0.08-0.08
DrakeMVC0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
MarshallCUSA0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
LamarSlnd0.100.1026.9226.92-0.05-0.05
StanfordP120.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
TexasB120.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
IdahoBSky0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0826.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0756.0056.000.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
SMUAmer0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
TulsaAmer0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.070.0724.2424.24-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
WashingtonP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.453.45-0.05-0.05
GonzagaWCC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0520.8320.83-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
StetsonASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00