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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


San Diego St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:26.0
Current RPI:26
Expected SOS:76
Current SOS:76
Current Record:25-8
Expected Record:25-8
Current Conf Record:16-5
Expected Conf Record:16-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:37
Expected OOC SOS:68



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-826.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Diego St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Cal St. Northridge (282.0)BWH79-58W100%0.0
11-18Utah (20.0)P12H53-49W100%0.0
11-20Cal St. Bakersfield (301.0)WACH51-27W100%0.0
11-24BYU (36.0)WCCN92-87W100%0.0
11-25Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCN74-57W100%0.0
11-26Arizona (5.0)P12N59-61L0%0.0
12-4San Diego (157.0)WCCH57-48W100%0.0
12-7Washington (126.0)P12A49-36L0%0.0
12-10Long Beach St. (111.0)BWH60-59W100%0.0
12-17Cincinnati (37.0)AmerA71-62L0%0.0
12-20Ball St. (284.0)MACH70-57W100%0.0
12-22UC Riverside (234.0)BWH61-33W100%0.0
12-31Air Force (240.0)MWCH53-49W100%0.0
1-3Fresno St. (182.0)MWCA59-57L0%0.0
1-6New Mexico (172.0)MWCH56-42W100%0.0
1-14Wyoming (71.0)MWCA52-60W100%0.0
1-17UNLV (114.0)MWCH53-47W100%0.0
1-20Air Force (240.0)MWCA45-77W100%0.0
1-24Colorado St. (29.0)MWCA79-73L0%0.0
1-27Fresno St. (182.0)MWCH58-47W100%0.0
1-31Utah St. (143.0)MWCH62-42W100%0.0
2-4Nevada (306.0)MWCA63-65W100%0.0
2-8Boise St. (40.0)MWCA61-46L0%0.0
2-11Wyoming (71.0)MWCH67-41W100%0.0
2-14Colorado St. (29.0)MWCH72-63W100%0.0
2-17New Mexico (172.0)MWCA46-63W100%0.0
2-21San Jose St. (336.0)MWCA56-74W100%0.0
2-28Boise St. (40.0)MWCH46-56L0%0.0
3-4UNLV (114.0)MWCA58-60W100%0.0
3-7Nevada (306.0)MWCH67-43W100%0.0
3-12UNLV (114.0)MWCA64-67W100%0.0
3-13Colorado St. (29.0)MWCN43-56W100%0.0
3-14Wyoming (71.0)MWCN43-45L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Diego St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Diego St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Diego St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San Diego St.MWC26.4926.4977.3077.3014.4714.47
UNLVMWC5.425.4258.6258.620.930.93
WyomingMWC5.415.4175.8675.862.802.80
Colorado St.MWC5.395.3986.2186.213.913.91
Boise St.MWC3.993.9972.4172.411.791.79
NevadaMWC3.963.9625.9325.93-1.91-1.91
New MexicoMWC3.943.9451.7251.720.140.14
Fresno St.MWC3.943.9442.8642.86-0.56-0.56
Air ForceMWC3.943.9444.4444.44-0.44-0.44
Utah St.MWC2.552.5558.6258.620.440.44
San Jose St.MWC2.472.470.000.00-2.47-2.47
UtahP121.761.7676.6776.670.940.94
Long Beach St.BW1.721.7246.6746.67-0.11-0.11
ArizonaP121.681.6890.9190.911.381.38
UC RiversideBW1.661.6642.8642.86-0.24-0.24
BYUWCC1.641.6474.1974.190.790.79
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.641.6423.3323.33-0.87-0.87
WashingtonP121.641.6450.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.621.6237.9337.93-0.39-0.39
San DiegoWCC1.611.6148.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Ball St.MAC1.541.5421.4321.43-0.88-0.88
CincinnatiAmer1.521.5267.7467.740.540.54
PittsburghACC1.521.5258.0658.060.240.24
CaliforniaP120.340.3454.5554.550.030.03
ColoradoP120.340.3446.8846.88-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.320.3267.7467.740.110.11
PacificWCC0.300.3032.1432.14-0.11-0.11
UC DavisBW0.280.2879.3179.310.160.16
Cal St. FullertonBW0.280.2824.1424.14-0.14-0.14
StanfordP120.260.2659.3859.380.050.05
Cal PolyBW0.250.2540.7440.74-0.05-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.250.2561.2961.290.060.06
HawaiiBW0.250.2560.6160.610.050.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.250.2556.6756.670.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.230.2356.6756.670.030.03
PortlandWCC0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
UCLAP120.190.1960.6160.610.040.04
OregonP120.190.1972.7372.730.090.09
Arizona St.P120.190.1953.1253.120.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.170.1723.3323.33-0.09-0.09
USCP120.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.170.1720.6920.69-0.10-0.10
Western MichiganMAC0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
Washington St.P120.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.150.1568.9768.970.060.06
GonzagaWCC0.140.1493.9493.940.130.13
DenverSum0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.140.1446.4346.43-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
South DakotaSum0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
SMUAmer0.120.1281.2581.250.070.07
TempleAmer0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Oregon St.P120.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.100.000.00-0.10-0.10
Texas TechB120.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
East CarolinaAmer0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.106.906.90-0.08-0.08
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
KansasB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
SyracuseACC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
TulaneAmer0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0759.2659.260.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
MercerSC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0772.4172.410.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
ArmyPat0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0586.6786.670.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0262.9662.960.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
TexasB120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
BryantNEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
DukeACC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
DuquesneA100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0252.9452.940.000.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
NebraskaB100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0268.5768.570.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0275.8675.860.010.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
PurdueB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TulsaAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
VCUA100.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0290.6290.620.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
MichiganB100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00