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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


San Diego St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:52.7
Current RPI:45
Expected SOS:79
Current SOS:55
Current Record:16-7
Expected Record:20-9
Current Conf Record:11-1
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:12-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:129
Expected OOC SOS:14



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-734.711.94%
21-845.134.69%
20-956.934.10%
19-1067.715.69%
18-1178.93.25%
17-1291.20.29%
16-13106.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Diego St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Illinois St. (110.9)MVCH71-60W100%0.0
11-16Utah (25.7)P12A81-76L0%0.0
11-21Arkansas Little Rock (55.7)SBH43-49L0%0.0
11-23East Carolina (198.2)AmerH79-54W100%0.0
11-26California (35.8)P12N72-58W100%0.0
11-27West Virginia (9.2)B12N50-72L0%0.0
12-1Long Beach St. (98.7)BWA72-76W100%0.0
12-6San Diego (295.4)WCCN48-53L0%0.0
12-10Nicholls St. (324.4)SlndH84-47W100%0.0
12-18Grand Canyon (98.0)WACH45-52L0%0.0
12-22Kansas (4.0)B12H57-70L0%0.0
12-30Wyoming (179.2)MWCH67-55W100%0.0
1-2Utah St. (153.2)MWCA67-70W100%0.0
1-6San Jose St. (292.7)MWCH77-62W100%0.0
1-13Colorado St. (170.5)MWCA62-69W100%0.0
1-16Boise St. (98.5)MWCA53-56W100%0.0
1-19Fresno St. (115.3)MWCH73-67W100%0.0
1-23Utah St. (153.2)MWCH70-55W100%0.0
1-26Nevada (130.6)MWCA54-57W100%0.0
1-30UNLV (121.0)MWCA52-67W100%0.0
2-2Colorado St. (170.5)MWCH69-67W100%0.0
2-6New Mexico (104.5)MWCH78-71W100%0.0
2-10Fresno St. (115.3)MWCA58-57L0%0.0
2-13Air Force (237.5)MWCH0-096%18.9
2-21San Jose St. (292.7)MWCA0-084%11.0
2-24Wyoming (179.2)MWCA0-068%5.2
2-27Boise St. (98.5)MWCH0-071%6.1
3-1New Mexico (104.5)MWCA0-045%-1.4
3-5UNLV (121.0)MWCH0-068%5.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Diego St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Diego St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Diego St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San Diego St.MWC26.4026.3466.6768.018.809.49
San Jose St.MWC2.914.3425.0024.06-1.45-2.25
New MexicoMWC2.824.3360.8762.990.611.12
Colorado St.MWC4.844.3360.0056.420.970.56
Boise St.MWC2.924.3263.6463.850.801.20
WyomingMWC2.824.3245.4544.52-0.26-0.47
Fresno St.MWC4.744.2965.0062.411.421.07
UNLVMWC2.864.2854.5557.970.260.68
Utah St.MWC4.834.2852.6353.220.250.28
Air ForceMWC0.742.6943.4839.00-0.10-0.59
NevadaMWC2.712.6860.0057.400.540.40
CaliforniaP122.361.8769.5766.930.920.63
San DiegoWCC2.231.7927.2725.54-1.01-0.87
Long Beach St.BW2.271.7850.0053.780.000.13
East CarolinaAmer2.271.7843.4840.81-0.30-0.33
West VirginiaB122.271.7878.2677.371.280.98
KansasB122.261.7881.8278.491.441.01
Nicholls St.Slnd2.221.7819.0521.82-1.37-1.00
UtahP122.261.7869.5767.440.890.62
Arkansas Little RockSB2.221.7585.7183.681.591.18
Grand CanyonWAC2.171.7282.6181.431.421.08
Illinois St.MVC2.171.7258.3355.950.360.21
ArizonaP120.330.3580.0078.730.200.20
OregonP120.420.3279.1777.220.250.17
New Mexico St.WAC0.280.2965.2268.610.080.11
Montana St.BSky0.250.2843.4844.81-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.240.2468.0070.260.090.10
ColoradoP120.280.2370.8365.570.120.07
UC IrvineBW0.250.2169.5770.020.100.08
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.190.1866.6767.660.060.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.240.1841.6741.18-0.04-0.03
PortlandWCC0.190.1838.4638.04-0.04-0.04
UC DavisBW0.140.1838.1035.34-0.03-0.05
Cal PolyBW0.240.1828.5734.10-0.10-0.06
Wichita St.MVC0.190.1873.9176.700.090.09
UCLAP120.140.1754.1752.980.010.01
Oregon St.P120.230.1763.6458.770.060.03
Kansas St.B120.240.1758.3356.290.040.02
Northern IowaMVC0.190.1756.0055.450.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.190.1745.8342.30-0.02-0.03
Texas TechB120.190.1760.8755.310.040.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.200.1633.3332.04-0.07-0.06
SeattleWAC0.190.1545.4543.98-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.150.1560.0062.700.030.04
PacificWCC0.250.1523.8125.99-0.13-0.07
PepperdineWCC0.240.1558.3360.910.040.03
HoustonAmer0.190.1570.8367.980.080.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.180.1445.8343.78-0.01-0.02
Arizona St.P120.090.1456.0053.630.010.01
USCP120.090.1475.0071.140.050.06
RiceCUSA0.190.1427.2728.15-0.09-0.06
TCUB120.180.1445.8339.36-0.02-0.03
Washington St.P120.090.1434.7831.64-0.03-0.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.190.1314.2915.47-0.14-0.09
Utah ValleyWAC0.150.1333.3334.95-0.05-0.04
DukeACC0.200.1275.0071.810.100.05
Missouri St.MVC0.190.1237.5037.41-0.05-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.1233.3330.63-0.03-0.05
San FranciscoWCC0.150.1252.1749.150.01-0.00
DenverSum0.090.1252.0049.300.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.150.1285.0083.450.100.08
Delaware St.MEAC0.190.129.0912.25-0.15-0.09
Central ArkansasSlnd0.150.1223.8129.52-0.08-0.05
UC RiversideBW0.090.1245.8341.64-0.01-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.140.1250.0051.150.000.00
BradleyMVC0.090.1212.0011.95-0.07-0.09
EvansvilleMVC0.190.1272.0073.080.080.05
Indiana St.MVC0.090.1250.0049.490.00-0.00
BaylorB120.090.1173.9168.450.040.04
Iowa St.B120.090.1170.8367.960.040.04
OklahomaB120.090.1186.9682.620.070.07
StanfordP120.180.1147.6244.07-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.090.1166.6762.200.030.03
IdahoBSky0.100.0956.5255.330.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.150.0947.6248.05-0.01-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.0931.8230.08-0.05-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0958.3358.580.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.090.0961.9065.340.020.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.140.0981.8281.780.090.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.150.0935.0034.87-0.04-0.03
LamarSlnd0.150.0930.0029.17-0.06-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.099.5212.09-0.08-0.07
DrakeMVC0.140.0920.8323.28-0.08-0.05
Michigan St.B100.090.0980.0081.550.060.06
Northern ColoradoBSky0.150.0927.2726.46-0.07-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0914.2914.92-0.07-0.06
Incarnate WordSlnd0.140.0955.5652.480.020.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.140.0945.4549.06-0.01-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.140.0945.4551.69-0.010.00
USC UpstateASun0.140.0921.7422.42-0.08-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.040.0973.0872.610.020.04
VirginiaACC0.140.0983.3378.460.090.05
MemphisAmer0.090.0958.3359.310.020.02
SMUAmer0.090.0986.9682.930.070.06
TulsaAmer0.140.0966.6764.730.050.03
WashingtonP120.090.0962.5060.140.020.02
TempleAmer0.140.0865.2262.360.040.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0664.0057.890.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.0660.8759.830.020.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0660.8762.070.010.02
Weber St.BSky0.100.0666.6769.760.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.050.064.357.71-0.04-0.05
GonzagaWCC0.050.0679.1777.510.030.03
Portland St.BSky0.100.0630.0035.92-0.04-0.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0628.5732.73-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.090.0659.0961.290.020.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0620.0022.24-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0625.0028.14-0.02-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0640.9138.83-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0642.8641.32-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0655.0053.660.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0680.0075.690.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0660.0062.260.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0622.2231.13-0.03-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0626.3232.42-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0617.6526.60-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.100.0665.3865.500.030.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.069.0917.13-0.04-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.100.0636.3636.29-0.03-0.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0644.0043.56-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0614.2924.87-0.00-0.03
Texas St.SB0.050.0640.0038.87-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.100.0622.7324.37-0.05-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0668.1871.340.020.03
UTEPCUSA0.100.0654.1754.210.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0631.8236.13-0.03-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0650.0049.890.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0645.0049.16-0.01-0.00
KentuckySEC0.090.0675.0072.620.050.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0639.1335.44-0.01-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0672.0071.570.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.090.0672.0071.330.040.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0641.6742.39-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0680.0077.900.030.03
RichmondA100.090.0656.5255.820.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0620.0019.72-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.090.0622.7327.37-0.05-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0645.4554.18-0.000.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0636.0034.84-0.01-0.02
UCFAmer0.090.0650.0044.640.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0340.0040.34-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0347.6249.39-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0357.1457.670.010.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0313.0416.41-0.03-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0379.1776.000.030.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0316.6719.49-0.03-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0331.8232.68-0.02-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0354.1754.290.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0342.3144.49-0.01-0.00
DePaulBE0.050.0333.3334.02-0.02-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0366.6763.330.020.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0331.8232.47-0.02-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0360.0055.570.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0326.9228.60-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0370.8368.090.020.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0372.2275.710.000.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0365.2264.330.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0376.1972.410.030.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0330.4329.49-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0338.1039.12-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0341.6739.59-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.040.039.5210.67-0.04-0.02
IPFWSum0.050.0370.8368.650.020.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0333.3335.19-0.02-0.01
MarylandB100.040.0387.5083.680.030.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0382.6177.600.030.02
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0352.1753.440.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.040.0347.8350.90-0.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0383.3381.270.030.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0338.1037.68-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.040.0373.9174.640.020.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0368.1865.190.020.01
UABCUSA0.040.0383.3379.820.030.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0358.3359.970.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0337.5042.32-0.01-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0360.8758.910.010.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0370.8370.130.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.63-0.03-0.02
DavidsonA100.050.0361.9058.180.010.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0350.0049.320.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0366.6766.320.020.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0326.0927.89-0.02-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0315.0018.12-0.03-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0325.0026.38-0.02-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0329.1733.08-0.02-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0331.8235.12-0.02-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0352.1754.140.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0377.2773.930.020.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0352.0048.910.00-0.00