San Diego St.

Conference:	MWC
Expected RPI:	26.6
Current RPI:	21
Expected SOS:	65
Current SOS:	88
Current Record:	18-3
Expected Record:	22-6
Current Conf Record:	6-1
Expected Conf Record:	10-4
Probability of Auto Bid:	6.20%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-0
Current OOC Record:	12-2
Expected OOC Record:	12-2
Expected OOC RPI:	58
Expected OOC SOS:	216

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
25-3	8.7	0.84%
24-4	12.4	7.47%
23-5	17.7	22.36%
22-6	24.5	31.66%
21-7	32.3	24.17%
20-8	42.2	10.98%
19-9	54.6	2.30%
18-10	67.3	0.21%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Diego St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Bryant (334.0)	NEC	H	75-63	W	100%	0.0
11-12	Southern Utah (231.1)	Sum	H	70-37	W	100%	0.0
11-13	UC Davis (342.2)	BW	H	89-74	W	100%	0.0
11-15	Baylor (6.8)	B12	A	77-67	L	0%	0.0
11-17	Southern California (232.8)	P12	H	56-54	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Long Beach St. (39.1)	BW	H	77-73	W	100%	0.0
11-23	Arizona (75.8)	P12	A	57-61	W	100%	0.0
11-26	UC Santa Barbara (147.3)	BW	A	75-76	W	100%	0.0
11-30	Creighton (21.0)	MVC	H	83-85	L	0%	0.0
12-4	California (42.4)	P12	H	64-63	W	100%	0.0
12-7	San Diego (210.6)	WCC	A	62-74	W	100%	0.0
12-19	UC Riverside (257.6)	BW	H	80-55	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Elon (223.5)	SC	H	81-55	W	100%	0.0
1-10	Chicago St. (335.8)	GWC	H	73-65	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Nevada Las Vegas (9.6)	MWC	H	69-67	W	100%	0.0
1-18	New Mexico (30.8)	MWC	A	70-75	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Air Force (174.7)	MWC	H	57-44	W	100%	0.0
1-24	Wyoming (55.5)	MWC	A	42-52	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Colorado St. (33.3)	MWC	A	77-60	L	0%	0.0
2-1	Boise St. (176.5)	MWC	H	58-56	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Texas Christian (123.7)	MWC	H	83-73	W	100%	0.0
2-11	Nevada Las Vegas (9.6)	MWC	A	0-0		18%	-9.8
2-15	New Mexico (30.8)	MWC	H	0-0		39%	-3.2
2-18	Air Force (174.7)	MWC	A	0-0		70%	5.9
2-22	Wyoming (55.5)	MWC	H	0-0		61%	3.1
2-25	Colorado St. (33.3)	MWC	H	0-0		72%	6.3
2-29	Boise St. (176.5)	MWC	A	0-0		58%	2.2
3-3	Texas Christian (123.7)	MWC	A	0-0		67%	4.8

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Diego St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

San Diego St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against San Diego St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
San Diego St.	MWC	26.16	26.32	85.06	77.34	18.34	14.39
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	2.89	4.43	86.36	84.35	2.10	3.04
New Mexico	MWC	2.77	4.36	85.71	84.75	1.98	3.03
Texas Christian	MWC	2.77	4.36	60.00	51.99	0.55	0.17
Boise St.	MWC	2.78	4.36	45.00	42.68	-0.28	-0.64
Air Force	MWC	2.77	4.35	50.00	44.44	0.00	-0.48
Colorado St.	MWC	2.72	4.33	65.00	60.54	0.82	0.91
Wyoming	MWC	2.72	4.33	80.00	74.68	1.63	2.14
Southern California	P12	2.70	2.12	26.09	25.97	-1.29	-1.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	2.71	2.10	58.82	60.43	0.48	0.44
UC Davis	BW	2.77	2.08	0.00	5.56	-2.77	-1.85
Long Beach St.	BW	2.62	2.08	75.00	76.06	1.31	1.08
UC Riverside	BW	2.67	2.04	45.00	41.12	-0.27	-0.36
California	P12	2.60	1.97	78.26	77.09	1.47	1.07
Southern Utah	Sum	2.54	1.91	47.62	46.01	-0.12	-0.15
Arizona	P12	2.53	1.90	69.57	70.84	0.99	0.79
Chicago St.	GWC	2.49	1.88	5.00	10.31	-2.24	-1.50
Bryant	NEC	2.54	1.88	8.70	11.23	-2.10	-1.46
Creighton	MVC	2.44	1.85	86.96	84.90	1.80	1.29
San Diego	WCC	2.45	1.82	35.00	35.12	-0.73	-0.54
Baylor	B12	2.38	1.79	90.48	83.29	1.93	1.19
Elon	SC	2.38	1.79	52.63	49.42	0.13	-0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.46	0.39	35.00	35.26	-0.14	-0.11
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.47	0.35	21.05	22.46	-0.27	-0.19
Cal Poly	BW	0.39	0.35	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.05
Colorado	P12	0.32	0.34	66.67	62.65	0.11	0.09
Stanford	P12	0.32	0.27	69.57	68.29	0.12	0.10
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.30	0.26	65.00	66.70	0.09	0.09
Pacific	BW	0.29	0.26	35.00	37.47	-0.09	-0.07
Idaho St.	BSky	0.22	0.25	33.33	33.88	-0.07	-0.08
Washington St.	P12	0.26	0.24	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.01
Denver	SB	0.22	0.22	70.83	72.23	0.09	0.10
Utah	P12	0.21	0.21	18.18	15.01	-0.13	-0.15
Arizona St.	P12	0.20	0.21	30.43	31.43	-0.08	-0.08
UCLA	P12	0.21	0.20	54.55	56.79	0.02	0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.18	0.19	19.05	24.61	-0.11	-0.10
Drake	MVC	0.22	0.19	52.17	50.09	0.01	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.17	0.19	54.55	57.69	0.02	0.03
Washington	P12	0.21	0.18	69.57	66.54	0.08	0.06
Portland	WCC	0.18	0.17	21.74	21.70	-0.10	-0.09
Gonzaga	WCC	0.17	0.16	81.82	81.49	0.11	0.10
Santa Clara	WCC	0.23	0.16	28.57	26.30	-0.10	-0.08
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.17	0.16	43.48	43.31	-0.02	-0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.16	0.16	25.00	28.52	-0.08	-0.07
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.16	0.15	69.57	68.90	0.06	0.06
Wichita St.	MVC	0.16	0.15	82.61	80.42	0.10	0.09
Oregon St.	P12	0.21	0.15	63.64	63.16	0.06	0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.12	0.13	20.00	19.96	-0.07	-0.08
Brigham Young	WCC	0.23	0.13	75.00	76.00	0.12	0.07
South Dakota	Sum	0.16	0.13	26.32	28.83	-0.08	-0.05
Montana	BSky	0.17	0.13	70.00	73.28	0.07	0.06
Wagner	NEC	0.11	0.13	82.61	84.57	0.07	0.09
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.16	0.13	34.78	35.20	-0.05	-0.04
Fresno St.	WAC	0.11	0.13	39.13	44.52	-0.02	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.11	0.13	30.00	31.54	-0.05	-0.05
Idaho	WAC	0.17	0.13	47.62	51.08	-0.01	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.16	0.13	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
North Dakota	GWC	0.11	0.13	33.33	41.31	-0.04	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.13	38.10	37.86	-0.01	-0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.17	0.12	86.96	83.16	0.12	0.08
Bradley	MVC	0.16	0.12	24.00	24.86	-0.08	-0.06
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.12	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.16	0.12	62.50	61.50	0.04	0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.16	0.12	30.43	26.44	-0.06	-0.06
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.12	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.15	0.12	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.16	0.12	45.45	40.70	-0.01	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.11	0.12	31.82	25.98	-0.04	-0.06
Kansas	B12	0.16	0.12	78.26	78.39	0.09	0.07
Nebraska	B10	0.16	0.12	52.38	46.68	0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.15	0.12	69.57	64.53	0.06	0.03
Army	Pat	0.11	0.10	40.91	41.72	-0.02	-0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.11	0.10	35.00	35.31	-0.03	-0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.17	0.10	90.91	87.74	0.14	0.07
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.11	0.10	57.14	60.75	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.10	0.09	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.09	31.82	42.13	-0.04	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.11	0.09	45.00	41.76	-0.01	-0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	0.09	47.83	47.87	-0.00	-0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.16	0.09	27.27	26.95	-0.07	-0.04
Illinois	B10	0.11	0.09	72.73	64.43	0.05	0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.16	0.09	62.50	62.06	0.04	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.09	72.73	68.28	0.05	0.03
Nevada	WAC	0.11	0.09	80.95	76.42	0.07	0.05
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.11	0.09	34.78	32.06	-0.03	-0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.11	0.09	60.87	59.05	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	WAC	0.11	0.09	57.14	53.12	0.02	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.10	0.09	91.30	87.18	0.09	0.07
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.10	0.09	25.00	37.58	-0.05	-0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.07	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.07	17.39	24.41	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.07	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.07	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.07	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.06	0.07	35.00	39.29	-0.02	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.07	27.27	35.02	-0.03	-0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.12	0.07	58.33	59.98	0.02	0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.07	34.78	35.50	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.07	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.07	34.78	33.46	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.07	61.90	63.52	0.03	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.07	80.77	80.75	0.03	0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.07	31.82	33.83	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.06	0.07	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.07	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.07	73.91	75.49	0.05	0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.12	0.07	9.52	11.44	-0.10	-0.05
Troy	SB	0.11	0.07	28.57	30.17	-0.05	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.07	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.07	52.63	48.41	0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	34.78	38.42	-0.02	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.06	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.06	68.00	69.07	0.02	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	5.26	7.30	-0.05	-0.05
Portland St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	42.86	45.80	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.06	0.06	85.71	82.18	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	35.00	39.38	-0.02	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.11	0.06	14.29	17.17	-0.08	-0.04
South Carolina	SEC	0.11	0.06	40.91	39.56	-0.02	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.10	0.06	80.00	76.84	0.06	0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.11	0.06	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.11	0.06	33.33	37.25	-0.04	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.06	15.00	15.73	-0.04	-0.04
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.06	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	61.90	67.23	0.01	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.06	63.64	56.71	0.02	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.06	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.06	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	81.82	76.80	0.04	0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.11	0.06	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.06	13.64	16.14	-0.04	-0.04
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.06	17.39	19.81	-0.03	-0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.06	27.78	29.87	-0.02	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.10	0.06	45.45	45.70	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.00	0.06	73.91	68.43	0.00	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.06	8.70	8.99	-0.04	-0.05
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.06	26.09	28.60	-0.02	-0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.10	0.06	61.90	55.14	0.02	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.06	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.10	0.06	56.52	57.15	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.06	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.00	0.06	44.00	45.89	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.06	21.74	22.76	-0.03	-0.03
Texas	B12	0.05	0.06	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.11	0.06	52.38	46.15	0.01	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.06	75.00	73.97	0.03	0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.10	0.06	19.05	25.52	-0.06	-0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.06	78.26	72.34	0.06	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.06	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.03	16.67	23.02	-0.04	-0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.03	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.00
Davidson	SC	0.00	0.03	76.19	76.76	0.00	0.02
Furman	SC	0.06	0.03	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.03	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.06	0.03	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.06	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.03	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.03	9.52	13.19	-0.05	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.06	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.03	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.03	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.03	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.03	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.00	0.03	59.09	57.93	0.00	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.03	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Louisville	BE	0.06	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.03	19.05	21.29	-0.04	-0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.03	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.00	0.03	26.32	29.71	-0.00	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.03	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.06	0.03	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.06	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.03	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.03	40.91	44.03	-0.01	-0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.06	0.03	30.00	33.20	-0.02	-0.01
Seattle	ind	0.00	0.03	23.53	33.28	-0.00	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.03	27.27	23.80	-0.02	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.70	12.13	-0.04	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	74.91	0.02	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.03	70.83	71.05	0.02	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.03	28.00	28.91	-0.02	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.02	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.03	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.05	0.03	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	10.00	14.93	-0.04	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.95	0.01	0.00
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.03	76.19	75.94	0.03	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.02	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.03	72.22	63.19	0.02	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.97	-0.02	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.03	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.03	82.61	77.63	0.03	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	41.18	42.61	-0.01	-0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.03	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.61	0.02	0.01