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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


San Diego St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:47.5
Current RPI:40
Expected SOS:120
Current SOS:66
Current Record:3-1
Expected Record:20-7
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:3-1
Expected OOC Record:7-2
Expected OOC RPI:55
Expected OOC SOS:248



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-110.40.09%
25-214.80.81%
24-318.73.11%
23-423.08.19%
22-529.014.72%
21-637.119.40%
20-746.319.48%
19-857.715.42%
18-971.210.05%
17-1087.65.35%
16-11103.52.21%
15-12119.90.92%
14-13137.80.20%
13-14159.50.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Diego St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11San Diego (251.2)WCCH69-59W100%0.0
11-14Gonzaga (10.2)WCCA69-48L0%0.0
11-21California (68.2)P12N77-65W100%0.0
11-28Savannah St. (339.8)MEACH100-67W100%0.0
12-3Loyola Chicago (161.7)MVCA0-064%4.2
12-7Grand Canyon (187.1)WACA0-076%8.4
12-10Arizona St. (165.8)P12H0-085%12.4
12-12Alabama St. (324.9)SWACH0-099%27.1
12-22Southern Miss (316.2)CUSAN0-097%22.6
1-1New Mexico (84.5)MWCH0-076%8.3
1-4Nevada (46.6)MWCA0-045%-1.4
1-7Boise St. (106.2)MWCA0-056%1.8
1-10San Jose St. (205.1)MWCH0-091%15.9
1-14Utah St. (105.4)MWCH0-078%9.3
1-17UNLV (163.6)MWCA0-067%5.2
1-24Air Force (197.4)MWCA0-074%7.8
1-28Colorado St. (89.8)MWCH0-076%8.4
1-31Wyoming (182.2)MWCH0-087%13.3
2-4Fresno St. (202.1)MWCA0-076%8.5
2-7San Jose St. (205.1)MWCA0-079%9.7
2-12Nevada (46.6)MWCH0-066%4.8
2-15Utah St. (105.4)MWCA0-060%3.1
2-19UNLV (163.6)MWCH0-083%11.4
2-22Fresno St. (202.1)MWCH0-089%14.7
2-25Colorado St. (89.8)MWCA0-057%2.2
3-1Air Force (197.4)MWCH0-088%14.0
3-4New Mexico (84.5)MWCA0-057%2.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Diego St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Diego St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Diego St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San Diego St.MWC28.7226.3778.5777.0916.4114.29
UNLVMWC0.004.6771.4351.280.000.12
NevadaMWC0.004.6475.0072.260.002.06
Colorado St.MWC0.004.6083.3363.570.001.25
Air ForceMWC0.004.6050.0044.460.00-0.51
New MexicoMWC0.004.6071.4360.450.000.96
Fresno St.MWC0.004.6060.0041.320.00-0.80
San Jose St.MWC0.004.5940.0039.23-0.00-0.99
Utah St.MWC0.004.5950.0055.310.000.49
WyomingMWC1.042.9160.0049.900.21-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.002.8850.0059.510.000.55
Arizona St.P120.001.9757.1436.750.00-0.52
CaliforniaP1212.501.94100.0065.8112.500.61
GonzagaWCC12.501.92100.0090.7512.501.56
San DiegoWCC12.501.9133.3328.48-4.17-0.82
Alabama St.SWAC0.001.8514.2935.75-0.00-0.53
Grand CanyonWAC0.001.8550.0057.410.000.27
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.001.8566.6755.060.000.19
Savannah St.MEAC12.501.850.0025.12-12.50-0.92
Southern MissCUSA0.001.8533.3324.15-0.00-0.96
New Mexico St.WAC0.890.3871.4368.100.380.14
PacificWCC0.000.2850.0049.010.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.2871.4366.730.000.09
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2833.3345.60-0.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.25100.0089.040.000.20
Oregon St.P120.000.2528.5723.76-0.00-0.13
ArizonaP120.000.2585.7170.990.000.10
PortlandWCC0.000.2360.0057.170.000.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.220.0032.39-0.00-0.08
ColoradoP120.000.2271.4359.850.000.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1937.5036.24-0.00-0.05
BYUWCC0.000.1971.4368.660.000.07
Washington St.P120.000.1950.0036.820.00-0.05
StanfordP120.000.1975.0059.100.000.03
WashingtonP120.000.1857.1452.630.000.01
DenverSum0.000.1733.3341.11-0.00-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.890.1660.0058.950.180.03
Idaho St.BSky0.000.1614.2929.81-0.00-0.06
Cal PolyBW0.000.1633.3335.92-0.00-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.160.0024.25-0.00-0.08
UC IrvineBW1.040.1650.0054.690.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.1428.5728.46-0.00-0.06
MontanaBSky0.000.1314.2947.44-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA1.040.1340.0067.95-0.210.05
UTEPCUSA0.000.1325.0043.26-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1350.0059.670.000.03
DrakeMVC0.000.130.0021.30-0.00-0.07
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1333.3346.81-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1316.6732.62-0.00-0.05
Southern UtahBSky0.000.130.0023.26-0.00-0.07
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1375.0064.960.000.04
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1371.4386.030.000.09
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1342.8634.17-0.00-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1340.0057.49-0.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.890.130.0024.77-0.89-0.06
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1350.0066.170.000.04
PepperdineWCC0.000.1350.0035.230.00-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1383.3350.740.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.1250.0029.280.00-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1216.6730.02-0.00-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1214.2928.15-0.00-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1250.0046.670.00-0.01
UCLAP120.890.12100.0083.550.890.08
USCP120.890.12100.0075.380.890.06
IonaMAAC0.000.1260.0070.140.000.05
North TexasCUSA0.000.1040.0030.80-0.00-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.100.0038.35-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.100.0042.55-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.100.0013.30-0.00-0.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.100.0023.46-0.00-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.890.1028.5734.18-0.38-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.100.0034.23-0.00-0.03
PurdueB100.000.1071.4374.450.000.05
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1033.3340.39-0.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.1083.3361.150.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.0983.3369.840.000.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.040.0950.0056.430.000.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0957.1448.410.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0916.6743.29-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0987.5078.680.000.05
TCUB120.000.09100.0059.480.000.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.090.0033.43-0.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.090.0033.44-0.00-0.03
UtahP120.000.0975.0061.040.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0785.7169.010.000.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0733.3343.64-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.070.0034.18-0.00-0.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0740.0050.88-0.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0716.6737.09-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.070.0027.77-0.00-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0771.4343.020.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.890.0716.6731.91-0.60-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.070.0018.22-0.00-0.04
LamarSlnd0.000.0760.0043.970.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0771.4363.090.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0725.0030.93-0.00-0.03
NJITASun0.000.0742.8650.32-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0785.7163.780.000.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0720.0054.94-0.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0714.2926.81-0.00-0.03
Iowa St.B121.790.0771.4368.970.770.02
TroySB0.000.0633.3332.23-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum1.040.0614.2937.52-0.74-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.0633.3345.58-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0017.30-0.00-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0675.0047.510.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0050.290.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0657.1459.480.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0685.7155.890.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0039.35-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6740.71-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0620.0042.63-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0625.0056.92-0.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.26-0.00-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0657.1467.020.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0671.4356.050.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0625.0024.28-0.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0625.0053.29-0.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0666.6772.440.000.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0038.51-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0685.7162.920.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0640.0050.91-0.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.060.0037.92-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0685.7176.170.000.03
OaklandHorz0.000.0683.3378.430.000.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0650.0054.490.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0466.6751.090.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0416.6733.69-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0420.0034.39-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0485.7162.410.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0471.4349.770.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0483.3359.600.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0485.7173.010.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0466.6765.810.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0457.1461.940.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3380.700.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.890.0350.0045.410.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.890.0342.8644.33-0.13-0.00
MemphisAmer0.890.0385.7159.740.640.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.32-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0366.6775.370.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.890.0316.6729.36-0.60-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0340.0055.44-0.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.63-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0380.0035.960.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0060.380.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0350.0052.330.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0362.5056.500.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0357.1447.320.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0328.5730.29-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0385.7175.950.000.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0342.8635.68-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0333.3333.15-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.890.0342.8637.25-0.13-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0019.30-0.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.0362.5043.960.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0333.3327.13-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.890.0357.1455.810.130.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0357.1440.590.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0357.1469.300.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0383.3370.360.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0342.8650.36-0.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.45-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0371.4355.750.000.00
BryantNEC0.890.0328.5750.20-0.380.00
FloridaSEC0.890.0387.5075.320.670.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.95-0.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.890.0316.6734.31-0.60-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0371.4354.520.000.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0357.1447.220.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0325.0034.47-0.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0082.550.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0314.2929.15-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.650.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.0383.3368.880.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0086.250.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.0325.0040.37-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0340.0027.05-0.00-0.01