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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


San Diego St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:35.4
Current RPI:26
Expected SOS:73
Current SOS:26
Current Record:8-3
Expected Record:22-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:29
Expected OOC SOS:32



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-310.20.13%
26-412.31.10%
25-515.64.14%
24-619.510.34%
23-724.118.70%
22-830.622.27%
21-938.819.98%
20-1049.613.80%
19-1162.86.11%
18-1277.42.46%
17-1394.90.79%
16-14113.40.14%
15-15130.00.01%
14-16159.00.01%
13-17163.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Diego St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Cal St. Northridge (309.2)BWH79-58W100%0.0
11-18Utah (12.1)P12H53-49W100%0.0
11-20Cal St. Bakersfield (323.0)WACH51-27W100%0.0
11-24BYU (51.6)WCCN92-87W100%0.0
11-25Pittsburgh (115.2)ACCN74-57W100%0.0
11-26Arizona (14.7)P12N59-61L0%0.0
12-4San Diego (92.1)WCCH57-48W100%0.0
12-7Washington (30.0)P12A49-36L0%0.0
12-10Long Beach St. (86.1)BWH60-59W100%0.0
12-17Cincinnati (67.8)AmerA71-62L0%0.0
12-20Ball St. (228.6)MACH70-57W100%0.0
12-22UC Riverside (248.9)BWH0-093%17.4
12-31Air Force (138.6)MWCH0-080%9.7
1-3Fresno St. (261.4)MWCA0-081%10.1
1-6New Mexico (97.0)MWCH0-078%9.0
1-14Wyoming (73.3)MWCA0-042%-2.4
1-17UNLV (142.3)MWCH0-089%14.0
1-20Air Force (138.6)MWCA0-055%1.4
1-24Colorado St. (33.0)MWCA0-041%-2.5
1-27Fresno St. (261.4)MWCH0-094%18.4
1-31Utah St. (192.3)MWCH0-089%14.4
2-4Nevada (283.3)MWCA0-081%10.4
2-8Boise St. (51.1)MWCA0-039%-3.2
2-11Wyoming (73.3)MWCH0-069%6.0
2-14Colorado St. (33.0)MWCH0-069%5.8
2-17New Mexico (97.0)MWCA0-052%0.6
2-21San Jose St. (328.0)MWCA0-094%18.6
2-28Boise St. (51.1)MWCH0-067%5.2
3-4UNLV (142.3)MWCA0-069%5.7
3-7Nevada (283.3)MWCH0-095%18.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Diego St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Diego St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Diego St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San Diego St.MWC27.4226.3271.7973.0511.9512.13
UNLVMWC0.234.2166.6751.570.080.13
Colorado St.MWC0.004.18100.0080.610.002.56
New MexicoMWC0.004.1772.7364.170.001.18
Fresno St.MWC0.194.1727.2730.40-0.09-1.64
NevadaMWC0.214.1711.1126.51-0.16-1.96
Boise St.MWC0.214.1777.7874.890.112.08
WyomingMWC0.004.1480.0075.710.002.13
Air ForceMWC0.004.1450.0057.740.000.64
Utah St.MWC0.422.6554.5549.590.04-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.232.620.008.09-0.23-2.20
UtahP125.061.9288.8983.403.931.28
Long Beach St.BW5.001.9040.0052.46-1.000.09
UC RiversideBW0.421.8450.0044.660.00-0.20
ArizonaP124.751.84100.0082.054.751.18
BYUWCC4.981.8177.7870.782.770.75
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.731.8120.0023.27-2.84-0.97
WashingtonP124.751.81100.0074.604.750.89
San DiegoWCC4.551.7860.0059.620.910.34
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC4.551.7818.1834.62-2.89-0.55
Ball St.MAC4.771.7028.5738.40-2.05-0.39
CincinnatiAmer4.551.6766.6763.501.520.45
PittsburghACC4.551.6777.7853.512.530.12
CaliforniaP120.000.3490.9169.030.000.13
ColoradoP120.000.3466.6758.000.000.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.3236.3637.85-0.00-0.08
PacificWCC0.230.3255.5638.270.03-0.07
UC DavisBW0.000.2987.5068.000.000.10
Cal PolyBW0.000.2937.5041.94-0.00-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.2833.3361.74-0.000.07
HawaiiBW0.640.2666.6754.470.210.02
UC IrvineBW0.190.2537.5046.38-0.05-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.210.2537.5063.95-0.050.07
PepperdineWCC0.210.2366.6755.670.070.03
StanfordP120.230.2266.6758.320.080.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2025.0023.40-0.00-0.11
PortlandWCC0.000.2070.0051.040.000.00
UCLAP120.410.2066.6754.480.140.02
USCP120.000.2060.0036.410.00-0.05
Arizona St.P120.000.1954.5548.490.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.620.1755.5652.610.070.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.1762.5058.080.000.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1744.4436.80-0.00-0.05
Washington St.P120.000.1740.0028.13-0.00-0.07
OregonP120.210.1770.0057.440.080.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1436.3645.11-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.430.1433.3343.83-0.14-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.210.1420.0026.07-0.12-0.07
GonzagaWCC0.190.1490.9190.540.150.12
Oregon St.P120.000.1477.7856.220.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1244.4455.37-0.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.510.120.009.06-0.51-0.10
Texas TechB120.000.1290.0055.360.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.230.1237.5044.33-0.06-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.190.1230.0038.57-0.08-0.03
MontanaBSky0.000.1225.0052.35-0.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.1214.2929.82-0.00-0.05
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1150.0054.170.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.190.1111.1128.88-0.15-0.05
HoustonAmer0.000.1162.5041.790.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1175.0061.480.000.03
South DakotaSum0.400.1127.2738.30-0.18-0.03
DenverSum0.000.1145.4555.13-0.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1137.5056.46-0.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.1172.7375.710.000.06
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1133.3337.91-0.00-0.03
XavierBE0.620.1172.7367.590.280.04
UTEPCUSA0.420.1160.0071.280.080.05
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1166.6742.600.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.11100.0084.930.000.08
TempleAmer0.000.1163.6456.430.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.190.0918.1837.71-0.12-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0914.2915.15-0.00-0.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0942.8633.27-0.00-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.230.0933.3340.63-0.08-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.400.0950.0042.090.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.190.0970.0059.660.080.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0960.0043.890.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.210.090.0011.94-0.21-0.07
ValparaisoHorz0.280.0981.8273.180.180.04
KansasB120.230.0890.0070.680.180.03
Morehead St.OVC0.230.0816.6737.21-0.15-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0860.0058.120.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0888.8955.860.000.01
Kansas St.B120.620.0863.6440.190.17-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.0677.7868.780.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0037.570.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0614.2932.16-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0067.140.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0685.7170.530.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0011.59-0.00-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0675.0066.220.000.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0637.5052.01-0.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0675.0058.160.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0622.2236.53-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0690.0067.380.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0663.6461.520.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0620.0040.84-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0690.9188.840.000.05
PrincetonIvy0.210.0633.3341.02-0.07-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6735.27-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0034.33-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0610.0027.17-0.00-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0677.7872.060.000.03
MaristMAAC0.000.069.0916.15-0.00-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0636.3648.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.510.0640.0043.04-0.10-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.430.0642.8637.83-0.06-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0640.0055.01-0.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0017.69-0.00-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0642.8649.51-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0633.3330.21-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0662.5072.070.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3346.17-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0644.4444.02-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0633.3337.22-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0655.5673.740.000.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.210.0666.6778.020.070.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0670.0061.320.000.01
SamfordSC0.430.0533.3330.28-0.14-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.230.0533.3355.24-0.080.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0550.0058.070.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0554.5541.980.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0560.0062.070.000.01
OaklandHorz0.420.0527.2732.45-0.19-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0555.5635.900.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.150.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0318.1830.76-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0377.7870.890.000.01
DelawareCAA0.190.030.008.56-0.19-0.02
High PointBSth0.190.0366.6761.790.060.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0316.6736.63-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.280.0330.0029.75-0.11-0.01
IUPUISum0.280.0327.2728.86-0.13-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.280.0363.6455.660.080.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0025.85-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0330.0028.65-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0023.69-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0342.8637.71-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0342.8641.81-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.230.0333.3362.72-0.080.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.230.0350.0068.770.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0360.0061.600.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0354.5552.490.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0344.4437.40-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.210.0320.0046.47-0.12-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.230.0325.0033.40-0.11-0.01
PurdueB100.230.0366.6759.370.080.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.210.0340.0046.19-0.04-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.230.0387.5085.480.170.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.230.0360.0076.250.050.01
OklahomaB120.230.0370.0062.710.090.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.230.0327.2735.36-0.10-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0388.8965.170.000.01
TexasB120.210.0390.9179.980.170.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.210.0333.3334.30-0.07-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5745.89-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.090.000.02
DuquesneA100.230.0337.5034.06-0.06-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0377.7870.160.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.190.0337.5050.31-0.050.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0380.0053.260.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0357.1453.770.000.00
IndianaB100.230.0381.8263.330.140.01
ManhattanMAAC0.230.0330.0038.01-0.09-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0381.8266.010.000.01
MichiganB100.190.0350.0040.450.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.230.0350.0047.880.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.230.0370.0052.600.090.00
MissouriSEC0.190.0340.0032.26-0.04-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.190.0333.3341.20-0.06-0.00
NebraskaB100.230.0366.6744.720.08-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.230.0312.5029.51-0.17-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0372.7374.850.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.230.0350.0071.260.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0391.6777.120.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0340.0041.32-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.230.0377.7865.110.130.01
St. Francis PANEC0.230.0355.5665.210.030.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0056.620.000.00
VCUA100.230.0372.7375.740.100.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0086.080.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0360.0038.030.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0312.5030.56-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0345.4537.60-0.00-0.01