San Diego St.

Conference:	MWC
Expected RPI:	30.0
Current RPI:	30
Expected SOS:	15
Current SOS:	15
Current Record:	20-10
Expected Record:	20-10
Current Conf Record:	10-8
Expected Conf Record:	10-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-0
Current OOC Record:	10-2
Expected OOC Record:	10-2
Expected OOC RPI:	27
Expected OOC SOS:	82

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-10	30.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Diego St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Syracuse (14.0)	BE	N	49-62	L	0%
11-17	Missouri St. (203.0)	MVC	A	44-60	W	100%
11-21	Arkansas Pine Bluff (202.0)	SWAC	H	79-43	W	100%
11-25	Southern California (118.0)	P12	A	60-66	W	100%
12-1	UCLA (26.0)	P12	N	69-78	W	100%
12-3	Texas Southern (184.0)	SWAC	H	74-62	W	100%
12-6	UC Santa Barbara (244.0)	BW	H	84-70	W	100%
12-15	San Diego (165.0)	WCC	H	72-56	W	100%
12-22	San Francisco (167.0)	WCC	N	58-80	W	100%
12-23	Indiana St. (74.0)	MVC	N	62-55	W	100%
12-25	Arizona (16.0)	P12	N	67-68	L	0%
1-2	Cal St. Bakersfield (235.0)	ind	H	72-57	W	100%
1-9	Fresno St. (135.0)	MWC	A	62-65	W	100%
1-12	Colorado St. (18.0)	MWC	H	79-72	W	100%
1-16	Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)	MWC	H	75-82	L	0%
1-19	Wyoming (75.0)	MWC	A	58-45	L	0%
1-23	Nevada (171.0)	MWC	A	57-78	W	100%
1-26	New Mexico (2.0)	MWC	H	55-34	W	100%
2-2	Air Force (80.0)	MWC	A	70-67	L	0%
2-6	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	H	63-62	W	100%
2-9	Fresno St. (135.0)	MWC	H	75-53	W	100%
2-13	Colorado St. (18.0)	MWC	A	66-60	L	0%
2-16	Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)	MWC	A	72-70	L	0%
2-19	Wyoming (75.0)	MWC	H	79-51	W	100%
2-23	Nevada (171.0)	MWC	H	88-75	W	100%
2-27	New Mexico (2.0)	MWC	A	70-60	L	0%
3-6	Air Force (80.0)	MWC	H	58-51	W	100%
3-9	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	A	69-65	L	0%
3-13	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	N	73-67	W	100%
3-15	New Mexico (2.0)	MWC	N	60-50	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Diego St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

San Diego St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against San Diego St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
San Diego St.	MWC	26.47	26.47	67.74	67.74	9.39	9.39
New Mexico	MWC	6.00	6.00	87.10	87.10	4.45	4.45
Boise St.	MWC	5.87	5.87	69.23	69.23	2.26	2.26
Wyoming	MWC	4.46	4.46	57.14	57.14	0.64	0.64
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	4.44	4.44	70.97	70.97	1.86	1.86
Colorado St.	MWC	4.36	4.36	75.86	75.86	2.25	2.25
Nevada	MWC	4.29	4.29	39.29	39.29	-0.92	-0.92
Air Force	MWC	4.28	4.28	53.85	53.85	0.33	0.33
Fresno St.	MWC	4.28	4.28	34.62	34.62	-1.32	-1.32
UC Santa Barbara	BW	1.89	1.89	32.14	32.14	-0.68	-0.68
UCLA	P12	1.88	1.88	75.76	75.76	0.97	0.97
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	1.88	1.88	40.00	40.00	-0.38	-0.38
Southern California	P12	1.84	1.84	45.16	45.16	-0.18	-0.18
Indiana St.	MVC	1.82	1.82	56.67	56.67	0.24	0.24
Texas Southern	SWAC	1.81	1.81	56.67	56.67	0.24	0.24
Arizona	P12	1.79	1.79	77.42	77.42	0.98	0.98
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	1.78	1.78	55.17	55.17	0.18	0.18
San Francisco	WCC	1.77	1.77	46.43	46.43	-0.13	-0.13
San Diego	WCC	1.75	1.75	45.16	45.16	-0.17	-0.17
Missouri St.	MVC	1.72	1.72	30.00	30.00	-0.69	-0.69
Syracuse	BE	1.67	1.67	73.53	73.53	0.78	0.78
Colorado	P12	0.38	0.38	65.62	65.62	0.12	0.12
Portland	WCC	0.32	0.32	30.00	30.00	-0.13	-0.13
Long Beach St.	BW	0.28	0.28	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
UC Irvine	BW	0.27	0.27	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.26	0.26	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.24	0.24	40.62	40.62	-0.05	-0.05
California	P12	0.24	0.24	64.52	64.52	0.07	0.07
Oregon	P12	0.23	0.23	76.47	76.47	0.12	0.12
Pacific	BW	0.23	0.23	62.50	62.50	0.06	0.06
Creighton	MVC	0.22	0.22	79.41	79.41	0.13	0.13
Utah	P12	0.21	0.21	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.21	0.21	63.64	63.64	0.06	0.06
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.20	0.20	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
UC Riverside	BW	0.20	0.20	14.29	14.29	-0.14	-0.14
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.20	0.20	31.25	31.25	-0.08	-0.08
Cal Poly	BW	0.20	0.20	55.17	55.17	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.19	0.19	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Wichita St.	MVC	0.19	0.19	76.47	76.47	0.10	0.10
Illinois St.	MVC	0.19	0.19	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.19	0.19	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.17	0.17	69.70	69.70	0.07	0.07
Santa Clara	WCC	0.17	0.17	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.17	0.17	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Southern	SWAC	0.16	0.16	68.97	68.97	0.06	0.06
Drake	MVC	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho	WAC	0.16	0.16	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.16	0.16	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.16	0.16	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.16	0.16	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
New Orleans	ind	0.15	0.15	18.18	18.18	-0.09	-0.09
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.14	0.14	17.86	17.86	-0.09	-0.09
Michigan St.	B10	0.14	0.14	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.14	0.14	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.14	0.14	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Hawaii	BW	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.14	0.14	81.25	81.25	0.08	0.08
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	28.12	28.12	-0.06	-0.06
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.12	0.12	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.11	0.11	93.75	93.75	0.10	0.10
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Denver	WAC	0.11	0.11	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
Grambling	SWAC	0.11	0.11	0.00	0.00	-0.11	-0.11
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Montana	BSky	0.11	0.11	79.31	79.31	0.06	0.06
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Connecticut	BE	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.10	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
North Florida	ASun	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.08	0.08	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
George Mason	CAA	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Louisville	BE	0.07	0.07	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	85.19	85.19	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.02	0.02	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.02	0.02	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	NEC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.02	0.02	59.26	59.26	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01