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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


San Diego St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:83.4
Current RPI:233
Expected SOS:99
Current SOS:227
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:16-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:5-3
Expected OOC RPI:125
Expected OOC SOS:183



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-313.50.12%
22-418.30.45%
21-524.61.68%
20-632.34.12%
19-742.08.74%
18-852.714.33%
17-967.316.73%
16-1083.418.40%
15-11102.015.21%
14-12121.810.33%
13-13143.95.53%
12-14164.92.85%
11-15184.21.02%
10-16212.80.38%
9-17232.90.10%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Diego St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Arizona St. (66.7)P12A90-68L0%0.0
11-17McNeese St. (331.7)SlndH83-52W100%0.0
11-20Eastern Illinois (246.1)OVCH0-089%14.8
11-23Sacramento St. (264.8)BSkyN0-089%15.0
11-30San Diego (158.1)WCCA0-062%3.8
12-3Bradley (169.6)MVCH0-081%10.4
12-9California (169.6)P12H0-075%8.2
12-21Gonzaga (23.2)WCCH0-029%-6.8
12-27Wyoming (121.3)MWCA0-053%0.8
12-30Utah St. (127.2)MWCH0-073%7.4
1-2Colorado St. (161.3)MWCA0-062%3.6
1-9San Jose St. (274.9)MWCH0-092%17.0
1-13Boise St. (59.7)MWCA0-039%-3.3
1-17Fresno St. (87.8)MWCH0-065%4.5
1-20New Mexico (141.4)MWCA0-055%1.6
1-24Colorado St. (161.3)MWCH0-079%9.6
1-27UNLV (110.1)MWCA0-044%-1.7
2-3Air Force (209.8)MWCH0-084%12.0
2-6Fresno St. (87.8)MWCA0-045%-1.5
2-10Nevada (20.5)MWCA0-024%-8.5
2-14Wyoming (121.3)MWCH0-072%6.8
2-17UNLV (110.1)MWCH0-064%4.3
2-21Air Force (209.8)MWCA0-069%6.0
2-24San Jose St. (274.9)MWCA0-082%11.0
2-27Boise St. (59.7)MWCH0-059%2.7
3-3Nevada (20.5)MWCH0-042%-2.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Diego St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Diego St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Diego St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San Diego St.MWC35.4226.4050.0061.440.006.04
Colorado St.MWC0.004.8566.6743.070.00-0.67
NevadaMWC0.004.82100.0079.680.002.86
Boise St.MWC0.004.80100.0067.680.001.70
San Jose St.MWC0.004.800.0021.630.00-2.72
UNLVMWC0.004.78100.0066.070.001.54
Air ForceMWC0.004.77100.0046.390.00-0.34
WyomingMWC0.004.77100.0058.870.000.85
Fresno St.MWC0.004.7750.0061.210.001.07
Utah St.MWC0.003.0250.0050.990.000.06
New MexicoMWC0.002.9950.0050.780.000.05
San DiegoWCC0.002.06100.0053.490.000.14
Sacramento St.BSky0.002.060.0034.800.00-0.63
GonzagaWCC0.002.02100.0086.710.001.48
Arizona St.P1225.001.99100.0061.4325.000.45
CaliforniaP120.001.9966.6740.730.00-0.37
BradleyMVC0.001.9675.0049.810.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.001.9633.3342.170.00-0.31
McNeese St.Slnd25.001.920.0024.14-25.00-0.99
PacificWCC0.000.430.0033.520.00-0.14
PortlandWCC0.000.300.0029.710.00-0.12
OregonP120.000.30100.0076.200.000.16
ColoradoP120.000.30100.0052.860.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.27100.0088.360.000.21
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.260.0042.340.00-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.000.2666.6756.400.000.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2450.0034.730.00-0.07
Southern UtahBSky0.000.2433.3327.100.00-0.11
ArizonaP120.000.23100.0083.700.000.15
DenverSum0.000.210.0038.100.00-0.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.2033.3351.560.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.20100.0059.250.000.04
Illinois St.MVC0.000.2033.3352.000.000.01
Idaho St.BSky4.170.170.0028.17-4.17-0.07
Montana St.BSky0.000.1733.3350.350.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.1766.6766.020.000.05
Oregon St.P120.000.1766.6742.260.00-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.17100.0051.900.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1733.3338.880.00-0.04
BYUWCC0.000.1666.6767.320.000.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1650.0069.320.000.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.140.0022.920.00-0.08
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.140.0023.910.00-0.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.140.0040.830.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.1350.0035.740.00-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1333.3343.810.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.13100.0057.270.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.13100.0048.130.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.13100.0071.180.000.06
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1350.0051.070.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.1333.3346.090.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.1375.0049.860.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.000.1350.0046.810.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.130.0031.910.00-0.05
UtahP120.000.13100.0067.160.000.05
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1366.6763.230.000.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1366.6763.220.000.03
IdahoBSky0.000.1350.0060.380.000.03
UC IrvineBW0.000.1333.3353.300.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.110.0036.830.00-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.110.0029.630.00-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.100.0036.490.00-0.03
IUPUIHorz0.000.100.0032.200.00-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.000.1033.3338.050.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.10100.0075.130.000.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.100.0050.360.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.1033.3331.840.00-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.000.100.0051.690.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky4.170.100.0024.44-4.17-0.05
UCLAP120.000.10100.0064.910.000.03
USCP120.000.10100.0073.190.000.05
Washington St.P120.000.10100.0041.780.00-0.02
ValparaisoMVC0.000.10100.0059.760.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.100.0033.850.00-0.03
RiceCUSA0.000.1033.3336.410.00-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.100.0018.970.00-0.06
UC DavisBW0.000.0966.6757.400.000.01
TCUB120.000.09100.0061.150.000.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.080.0038.960.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.08100.0065.580.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.080.0042.810.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0850.0043.710.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.080.0044.130.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.070.0035.610.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0750.0036.640.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.070.0029.880.00-0.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0775.0071.560.000.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.0750.0066.530.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0733.3329.980.00-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0725.0050.070.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.070.0046.410.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.07100.0038.710.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0750.0039.640.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0750.0053.620.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0766.6748.040.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.070.0042.670.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0733.3346.330.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.070.0038.990.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0750.0060.130.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.07100.0076.260.000.04
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0775.0058.930.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0766.6767.630.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0766.6761.500.000.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0766.6746.830.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0733.3350.220.000.00
Little RockSB0.000.070.0037.050.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0018.400.00-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.06100.0068.200.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0059.240.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0023.260.00-0.03
TulaneAmer0.000.06100.0054.140.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.060.0055.380.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.06100.0070.080.000.02
HawaiiBW0.000.06100.0053.460.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0650.0046.150.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0650.0073.230.000.03
Texas TechB120.000.06100.0062.630.000.02
HoustonAmer6.250.0466.6753.672.080.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0450.0059.190.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.040.0049.250.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0433.3334.560.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.040.0047.180.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.04100.0069.350.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.040.0046.000.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0450.0052.380.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.040.0044.830.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0450.0068.280.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0450.0050.870.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0433.3336.610.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0466.6740.070.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0433.3345.780.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.030.0035.130.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.007.670.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0067.460.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0350.0048.680.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.03100.0064.470.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0046.080.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.03100.0082.910.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.03100.0062.930.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.030.0017.060.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.03100.0053.790.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.030.0035.760.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0042.850.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0059.870.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.030.0036.070.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0333.3350.150.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0054.590.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3338.350.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0366.6749.990.00-0.00
VermontAE0.000.0366.6774.120.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0082.960.000.02
Wichita St.Amer0.000.03100.0082.290.000.02
WoffordSC0.000.030.0039.740.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.030.0048.110.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0350.0049.480.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.030.0027.250.00-0.01