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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


San Diego St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:15.0
Current RPI:15
Expected SOS:88
Current SOS:88
Current Record:27-4
Expected Record:27-4
Current Conf Record:18-3
Expected Conf Record:18-3
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:13-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:9-1
Expected OOC Record:9-1
Expected OOC RPI:28
Expected OOC SOS:123



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-415.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Diego St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8UC Riverside (319.0)BWH77-41W100%0.0
11-14Arizona (2.0)P12H60-69L0%0.0
11-28College of Charleston (242.0)CAAN72-52W100%0.0
11-29Creighton (10.0)BEN80-86W100%0.0
12-1Marquette (92.0)BEN67-59W100%0.0
12-5San Diego (156.0)WCCA64-65W100%0.0
12-8Washington (104.0)P12H70-63W100%0.0
12-18Southern Utah (346.0)BSkyH76-39W100%0.0
12-21McNeese St. (272.0)SlndH65-36W100%0.0
1-1Colorado St. (182.0)MWCA61-71W100%0.0
1-5Kansas (3.0)B12A57-61W100%0.0
1-8Boise St. (82.0)MWCH69-66W100%0.0
1-12Air Force (251.0)MWCA72-79W100%0.0
1-15Fresno St. (117.0)MWCH68-60W100%0.0
1-18UNLV (108.0)MWCH63-52W100%0.0
1-22San Jose St. (278.0)MWCA50-75W100%0.0
1-25Utah St. (116.0)MWCA69-74W100%0.0
2-1Colorado St. (182.0)MWCH65-56W100%0.0
2-5Boise St. (82.0)MWCA65-67W100%0.0
2-8Nevada (137.0)MWCH73-58W100%0.0
2-11Wyoming (135.0)MWCA68-62L0%0.0
2-15Air Force (251.0)MWCH64-56W100%0.0
2-18Utah St. (116.0)MWCH60-45W100%0.0
2-22New Mexico (12.0)MWCA58-44L0%0.0
2-25San Jose St. (278.0)MWCH90-64W100%0.0
3-1Fresno St. (117.0)MWCA67-82W100%0.0
3-5UNLV (108.0)MWCA64-73W100%0.0
3-8New Mexico (12.0)MWCH51-48W100%0.0
3-13Utah St. (116.0)MWCN73-39W100%0.0
3-14UNLV (108.0)MWCA51-59W100%0.0
3-15New Mexico (12.0)MWCN58-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Diego St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Diego St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Diego St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San Diego St.MWC26.5326.5387.7687.7620.0320.03
New MexicoMWC5.855.8583.3383.333.903.90
UNLVMWC5.785.7866.6766.671.931.93
Utah St.MWC5.755.7560.7160.711.231.23
Boise St.MWC4.264.2663.3363.331.141.14
Colorado St.MWC4.214.2150.0050.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC4.194.1951.7251.720.140.14
San Jose St.MWC4.134.1318.5218.52-2.60-2.60
Air ForceMWC4.134.1338.4638.46-0.95-0.95
WyomingMWC2.652.6551.7251.720.090.09
NevadaMWC2.652.6548.3948.39-0.09-0.09
Southern UtahBSky1.821.823.703.70-1.68-1.68
MarquetteBE1.741.7454.8454.840.170.17
San DiegoWCC1.721.7248.2848.28-0.06-0.06
ArizonaP121.711.7187.8887.881.301.30
UC RiversideBW1.701.7028.5728.57-0.73-0.73
KansasB121.691.6975.0075.000.840.84
CreightonBE1.661.6681.2581.251.041.04
WashingtonP121.641.6454.8454.840.160.16
College of CharlestonCAA1.611.6143.3343.33-0.22-0.22
McNeese St.Slnd1.611.6126.9226.92-0.74-0.74
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.310.3167.8667.860.110.11
ColoradoP120.280.2867.6567.650.100.10
UtahP120.250.2563.3363.330.070.07
Weber St.BSky0.250.2560.7160.710.050.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.240.2435.4835.48-0.07-0.07
CaliforniaP120.230.2359.3859.380.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.220.2273.5373.530.110.11
Arizona St.P120.220.2265.6265.620.070.07
PacificWCC0.210.2148.2848.28-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.190.1924.1424.14-0.10-0.10
Santa ClaraWCC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.180.1851.7251.720.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
Cal PolyBW0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.1542.4242.42-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
PortlandWCC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
USCP120.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
DePaulBE0.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Iowa St.B120.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
ProvidenceBE0.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
VillanovaBE0.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
Montana St.BSky0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.110.1136.3636.36-0.03-0.03
UICHorz0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
James MadisonCAA0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
HawaiiBW0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
SeattleWAC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1046.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
DavidsonSC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
ButlerBE0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1048.1548.15-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Oregon St.P120.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
StanfordP120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
UCLAP120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.07-0.07
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
TroySB0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.080.0894.1294.120.070.07
TowsonCAA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
DrexelCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Washington St.P120.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
IllinoisB100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
RadfordBSth0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0716.1316.13-0.05-0.05
UABCUSA0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Texas TechB120.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
ArmyPat0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
VMIBSth0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
SMUAmer0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
HoustonAmer0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
IdahoWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MaristMAAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0234.6234.62-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02
TulsaCUSA0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01