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Through games of Jan 20, 2017.


San Diego St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:72.5
Current RPI:90
Expected SOS:104
Current SOS:80
Current Record:10-7
Expected Record:19-10
Current Conf Record:3-3
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:93
Expected OOC SOS:127



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-736.01.88%
21-843.79.32%
20-954.019.62%
19-1065.925.83%
18-1180.421.80%
17-1296.814.15%
16-13114.15.30%
15-14132.81.73%
14-15151.20.31%
13-16168.60.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Diego St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11San Diego (174.3)WCCH69-59W100%0.0
11-14Gonzaga (6.3)WCCA69-48L0%0.0
11-21California (57.0)P12N77-65W100%0.0
11-28Savannah St. (325.9)MEACH100-67W100%0.0
12-3Loyola Chicago (138.3)MVCA65-59L0%0.0
12-7Grand Canyon (157.0)WACA76-72L0%0.0
12-10Arizona St. (126.9)P12H63-74L0%0.0
12-12Alabama St. (338.3)SWACH73-41W100%0.0
12-22Southern Miss (331.1)CUSAN51-66W100%0.0
12-23Tulsa (113.4)AmerN82-63W100%0.0
12-25San Francisco (102.4)WCCN48-62W100%0.0
1-1New Mexico (85.0)MWCH62-68L0%0.0
1-4Nevada (34.9)MWCA72-69L0%0.0
1-7Boise St. (77.1)MWCA78-66L0%0.0
1-10San Jose St. (203.3)MWCH76-61W100%0.0
1-14Utah St. (160.9)MWCH74-55W100%0.0
1-17UNLV (201.9)MWCA51-64W100%0.0
1-24Air Force (222.8)MWCA0-075%7.4
1-28Colorado St. (146.6)MWCH0-079%9.1
1-31Wyoming (128.0)MWCH0-081%9.6
2-4Fresno St. (121.1)MWCA0-059%2.4
2-7San Jose St. (203.3)MWCA0-080%9.2
2-12Nevada (34.9)MWCH0-062%3.4
2-15Utah St. (160.9)MWCA0-064%4.0
2-19UNLV (201.9)MWCH0-088%13.3
2-22Fresno St. (121.1)MWCH0-078%8.6
2-25Colorado St. (146.6)MWCA0-060%2.9
3-1Air Force (222.8)MWCH0-089%13.6
3-4New Mexico (85.0)MWCA0-053%0.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Diego St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Diego St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Diego St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San Diego St.MWC26.4426.3459.1565.574.848.20
UNLVMWC3.284.3450.0046.290.00-0.32
NevadaMWC3.124.3283.3379.352.082.53
Colorado St.MWC0.344.2852.9452.100.020.18
Air ForceMWC0.274.2841.1839.00-0.05-0.94
New MexicoMWC3.284.2855.5656.920.360.59
Fresno St.MWC0.344.2858.8256.460.060.55
San Jose St.MWC3.024.2750.0040.710.00-0.79
Utah St.MWC3.194.2746.6745.98-0.21-0.34
WyomingMWC0.422.7164.7159.080.120.49
Boise St.MWC3.192.6860.0061.760.640.63
San FranciscoWCC3.101.8466.6762.641.030.47
GonzagaWCC3.021.84100.0097.233.021.74
San DiegoWCC3.021.8452.9445.240.18-0.18
Arizona St.P123.101.8444.4442.66-0.34-0.27
CaliforniaP123.021.8172.2266.671.340.60
Alabama St.SWAC2.941.7220.0028.90-1.76-0.73
Grand CanyonWAC2.941.7258.8261.750.520.41
Loyola ChicagoMVC2.941.7258.8258.220.520.28
Savannah St.MEAC2.941.7226.6733.07-1.37-0.58
Southern MissCUSA2.941.7226.6723.14-1.37-0.93
TulsaAmer2.941.7262.5052.950.740.10
New Mexico St.WAC0.400.3588.2484.520.300.24
PacificWCC0.320.3236.8435.66-0.08-0.09
Loyola MarymountWCC0.330.3247.0644.32-0.02-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.420.3088.8987.310.320.22
OregonP120.340.2788.8983.420.260.18
Oregon St.P120.260.2616.6713.65-0.17-0.19
Santa ClaraWCC0.340.2447.3745.83-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.250.2470.0068.710.100.09
Alcorn St.SWAC0.320.2421.4336.55-0.18-0.06
ArizonaP120.400.2389.4784.510.310.16
PortlandWCC0.180.2147.0640.46-0.01-0.04
ColoradoP120.080.2050.0052.890.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.410.2077.7878.460.230.12
Washington St.P120.260.1847.0633.39-0.02-0.06
PepperdineWCC0.160.1822.2221.17-0.09-0.10
StanfordP120.080.1755.5648.060.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.240.1750.0043.390.00-0.02
DenverSum0.100.1557.8955.950.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.260.1540.0044.67-0.05-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.260.1512.5022.04-0.20-0.08
Cal PolyBW0.240.1518.7527.05-0.15-0.07
Wichita St.MVC0.170.1578.9582.980.100.10
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.250.1517.6524.51-0.16-0.07
UC IrvineBW0.250.1552.6360.240.010.03
USCP120.160.1480.0071.930.100.06
MontanaBSky0.100.1250.0058.290.000.02
UTSACUSA0.090.1243.7538.29-0.01-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1253.3361.620.000.03
DrakeMVC0.080.1229.4127.72-0.03-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.090.1233.3335.90-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1217.6535.33-0.00-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.260.1264.7169.700.080.05
Southern UtahBSky0.180.1211.7618.03-0.13-0.08
UTEPCUSA0.170.1218.7524.05-0.11-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.260.1211.1122.97-0.20-0.06
Missouri St.MVC0.080.1263.1659.600.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.240.1235.2939.22-0.07-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1247.3741.50-0.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.170.1247.3745.06-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.260.1222.2220.60-0.14-0.07
BradleyMVC0.160.1236.8433.55-0.04-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.250.1237.5037.69-0.06-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.250.1216.6720.43-0.17-0.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.1252.6347.720.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.240.1113.3327.07-0.17-0.05
UCLAP120.240.1195.0089.690.210.09
UtahP120.150.1168.7567.640.060.04
IonaMAAC0.150.1160.0063.140.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.170.0918.7535.73-0.11-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0912.5019.98-0.07-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.180.0925.0029.54-0.09-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0912.5033.82-0.00-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.170.0925.0029.15-0.09-0.04
LamarSlnd0.080.0946.6747.34-0.01-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.180.0950.0052.970.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.180.096.2511.88-0.16-0.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.180.0931.2545.45-0.07-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0944.4443.57-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.180.0973.6867.200.080.03
PurdueB100.170.0978.9576.890.100.05
AkronMAC0.080.0983.3376.940.050.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.170.0937.5044.22-0.04-0.01
SMUAmer0.090.0980.0077.810.060.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.240.0952.9451.110.010.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0952.9455.050.000.01
TroySB0.170.0947.0648.13-0.01-0.00
UC DavisBW0.080.0952.9454.710.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.170.0943.7541.41-0.02-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.150.0928.5734.62-0.07-0.03
DukeACC0.160.0977.7873.860.090.04
TCUB120.170.0976.4763.630.090.02
UC RiversideBW0.160.0921.4330.89-0.09-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.0635.2935.14-0.03-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.090.0626.6740.16-0.04-0.01
IdahoBSky0.100.0640.0044.98-0.02-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0637.5044.55-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0614.2929.27-0.07-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.170.0612.5024.37-0.13-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0622.2225.60-0.05-0.03
Iowa St.B120.170.0664.7161.830.050.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0666.6761.530.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.180.0670.5958.250.080.01
NJITASun0.090.0638.8942.49-0.02-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0658.8264.790.000.02
Texas TechB120.090.0677.7865.330.050.02
Weber St.BSky0.090.0650.0061.630.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.180.0640.0051.38-0.040.00
ArmyPat0.000.0638.8942.65-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0652.9450.590.000.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0677.7862.260.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0626.3236.97-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0631.2538.34-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0640.0037.08-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.0637.5051.21-0.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.0629.4130.28-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0650.0066.300.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0638.8939.92-0.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0633.3333.28-0.03-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0616.6718.29-0.00-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.180.0652.6352.920.010.00
Oral RobertsSum0.170.0622.2229.94-0.09-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0631.5833.41-0.03-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0688.8986.560.000.04
DaytonA100.080.0676.4776.940.040.03
HoustonAmer0.090.0668.4268.060.030.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0628.5741.77-0.03-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0635.2928.97-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0677.7867.020.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0677.7862.530.040.01
Portland St.BSky0.150.0657.1457.210.020.01
BuffaloMAC0.080.0637.5044.96-0.02-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0623.0830.70-0.04-0.02
KansasB120.080.0694.4481.800.070.04
OaklandHorz0.080.0672.2274.630.030.03
TowsonCAA0.080.0652.6354.610.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0317.6529.60-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0370.5973.700.040.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.0362.5060.090.020.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0312.5028.49-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.090.0355.0049.300.01-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0014.44-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0360.0072.810.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0315.7920.51-0.06-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.090.0346.6747.54-0.01-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0343.7543.70-0.01-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0373.6869.690.040.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0311.7621.45-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0320.0026.44-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.090.0389.4779.540.070.02
HawaiiBW0.090.0343.7546.21-0.01-0.00
LSUSEC0.090.0352.9438.780.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0355.5660.070.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0383.3383.150.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0361.1162.280.020.01
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0312.5013.05-0.07-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.0361.1164.320.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0331.2536.88-0.03-0.01
AlbanyAE0.080.0352.6358.980.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.090.0364.7156.100.030.00
BryantNEC0.080.0321.0533.56-0.05-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0320.0024.53-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0342.1130.39-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0377.7874.930.050.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0327.7832.97-0.04-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.080.0384.2179.280.060.02
MaristMAAC0.080.0331.5829.24-0.03-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0326.3228.81-0.04-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0340.0038.59-0.02-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0368.4252.190.030.00
Penn St.B100.080.0357.8949.820.01-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0342.1141.75-0.01-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0347.0646.29-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.080.0364.7160.050.020.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0322.2223.82-0.05-0.02
South DakotaSum0.080.0355.0054.820.010.00
TennesseeSEC0.080.0347.0648.42-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0358.8261.440.020.01
ToledoMAC0.080.0352.9452.870.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.080.0361.1156.230.020.00
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0335.2941.77-0.03-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0358.8260.260.010.01
Little RockSB0.090.0356.2551.110.010.00
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0352.9450.580.010.00
PrincetonIvy0.080.0360.0066.110.020.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0320.0024.21-0.05-0.01
Seton HallBE0.080.0366.6758.230.030.00
TempleAmer0.090.0350.0053.120.000.00
Texas St.SB0.090.0353.3345.980.01-0.00
VirginiaACC0.080.0382.3576.300.050.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0321.0528.89-0.04-0.01
CreightonBE0.080.0394.4484.720.070.02
DavidsonA100.080.0352.9453.560.000.00
KentuckySEC0.080.0388.8987.510.060.02
The CitadelSC0.080.0333.3328.99-0.03-0.01