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Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


North Dakota

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:210.8
Current RPI:225
Expected SOS:261
Current SOS:264
Current Record:9-10
Expected Record:13-13
Current Conf Record:7-4
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-5
Current OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC RPI:277
Expected OOC SOS:254



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-10161.21.19%
15-11176.69.14%
14-12192.723.81%
13-13210.231.83%
12-14228.323.93%
11-15247.98.34%
10-16266.41.67%
9-17284.00.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Dakota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Wisconsin (59.0)B10A78-64L0%0.0
11-21Bowling Green (198.5)MACN59-77W100%0.0
11-22Florida Gulf Coast (217.2)ASunA73-60L0%0.0
11-23Youngstown St. (258.9)HorzN69-79L0%0.0
11-28Northern Iowa (113.1)MVCH51-97L0%0.0
12-5Bradley (307.7)MVCA59-65W100%0.0
12-11North Dakota St. (114.3)SumH67-69L0%0.0
12-22Kansas St. (70.5)B12A63-49L0%0.0
12-31Idaho (219.4)BSkyH71-74L0%0.0
1-2Eastern Washington (207.4)BSkyH79-71W100%0.0
1-7Weber St. (139.6)BSkyA74-62L0%0.0
1-9Idaho St. (271.4)BSkyA76-84W100%0.0
1-14Montana St. (255.2)BSkyH85-68W100%0.0
1-16Montana (146.2)BSkyH61-65L0%0.0
1-21Northern Arizona (322.2)BSkyA59-101W100%0.0
1-23Southern Utah (334.5)BSkyA72-88W100%0.0
1-30Northern Colorado (308.9)BSkyA71-70L0%0.0
2-4Idaho St. (271.4)BSkyH76-60W100%0.0
2-6Weber St. (139.6)BSkyH78-71W100%0.0
2-11Eastern Washington (207.4)BSkyA0-038%-3.4
2-13Idaho (219.4)BSkyA0-043%-1.8
2-20Northern Colorado (308.9)BSkyH0-087%12.3
2-25Portland St. (281.6)BSkyH0-074%6.9
2-27Sacramento St. (250.4)BSkyH0-072%6.2
3-3Montana (146.2)BSkyA0-031%-5.4
3-5Montana St. (255.2)BSkyA0-053%0.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Dakota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Dakota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Dakota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North DakotaBSky26.4326.3748.3951.52-0.850.80
Northern ColoradoBSky3.544.8125.0024.73-1.77-2.43
Montana St.BSky3.084.7242.8645.25-0.44-0.45
Idaho St.BSky5.844.7250.0049.660.00-0.03
MontanaBSky3.074.7155.5660.480.340.99
IdahoBSky3.154.6852.3853.240.150.30
Weber St.BSky5.784.6866.6770.701.931.94
Eastern WashingtonBSky3.154.6855.0055.830.310.55
Northern ArizonaBSky3.402.9610.5313.65-2.68-2.15
Portland St.BSky0.642.9631.5838.15-0.24-0.70
Sacramento St.BSky0.642.9642.1146.33-0.10-0.22
Southern UtahBSky3.402.9615.7915.91-2.32-2.02
North Dakota St.Sum2.892.1361.9060.750.690.46
Bowling GreenMAC2.751.9952.3847.450.13-0.10
Youngstown St.Horz2.751.9927.2729.93-1.25-0.80
Florida Gulf CoastASun2.751.9945.0050.11-0.270.00
BradleyMVC2.741.9912.5012.38-2.05-1.50
Northern IowaMVC2.741.9954.1753.880.230.15
Kansas St.B122.631.9256.5254.840.340.19
WisconsinB102.631.9260.8755.530.570.21
DenverSum0.450.3454.1751.780.040.01
San Jose St.MWC0.250.2723.8122.82-0.13-0.15
South Dakota St.Sum0.390.2473.9174.700.180.12
South DakotaSum0.240.2441.6741.24-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.390.2433.3334.95-0.13-0.07
Washington St.P120.310.2436.3631.98-0.08-0.09
DrakeMVC0.350.2320.8323.19-0.20-0.12
PortlandWCC0.260.2140.0038.51-0.05-0.05
KansasB120.190.2082.6179.190.120.12
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.190.2066.6767.710.060.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.180.2058.3358.480.030.03
SeattleWAC0.130.1747.6245.00-0.01-0.02
UC DavisBW0.120.1740.0036.70-0.02-0.05
Utah St.MWC0.320.1747.6249.26-0.02-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1454.5550.110.010.00
Boise St.MWC0.190.1460.8760.530.040.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.190.1414.2915.45-0.14-0.10
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1443.4843.76-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.250.1347.6249.35-0.01-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.060.1356.5257.000.010.02
WyomingMWC0.120.1343.4842.47-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.170.1354.5552.540.020.01
Iowa St.B120.170.1370.8368.000.070.05
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1375.0076.190.050.07
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1354.1750.990.010.00
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1350.0049.600.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.160.1345.8343.68-0.01-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.210.1337.5037.41-0.05-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.160.1373.0872.640.070.06
Wichita St.MVC0.160.1373.9176.740.080.07
GonzagaWCC0.140.1178.2676.880.080.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.130.1031.8230.15-0.05-0.04
IUPUISum0.130.1040.0039.76-0.03-0.02
PacificWCC0.060.1025.0028.89-0.03-0.04
UtahP120.200.1070.8368.500.080.04
OhioMAC0.120.1063.6461.480.030.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.130.1090.4886.910.100.08
NevadaMWC0.060.1057.1455.290.010.01
UMBCAE0.120.1024.0026.33-0.06-0.05
BYUWCC0.180.1066.6769.490.060.04
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1027.7829.16-0.05-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1021.7422.74-0.07-0.05
DetroitHorz0.170.1047.6245.85-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.120.1065.2260.580.040.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.1060.0057.640.010.02
Wright St.Horz0.120.1056.5257.020.020.01
HawaiiBW0.110.1084.2181.660.080.06
North TexasCUSA0.110.1033.3333.07-0.04-0.03
Green BayHorz0.110.1054.5556.010.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1059.0959.650.020.02
SyracuseACC0.110.1066.6762.560.040.02
IllinoisB100.110.1045.8344.11-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.110.1080.0077.960.070.05
TCUB120.050.0945.8339.35-0.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.160.0986.9682.580.120.06
JacksonvilleASun0.130.0750.0049.850.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0721.7423.40-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.060.0725.0029.28-0.03-0.03
NJITASun0.060.0754.1755.260.010.01
North FloridaASun0.130.0765.2267.120.040.03
PepperdineWCC0.070.0756.5257.280.010.01
StetsonASun0.060.0723.8127.73-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.060.0722.7323.25-0.03-0.04
WashingtonP120.070.0762.5060.110.020.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0733.3330.60-0.02-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0740.0042.85-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.060.0769.5765.310.020.02
DavidsonA100.060.0761.9058.060.010.01
IPFWSum0.120.0770.8368.590.050.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0724.0024.17-0.03-0.04
LamarSlnd0.130.0730.0029.28-0.05-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.130.0745.4549.69-0.01-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.120.0739.1341.11-0.03-0.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0772.7367.630.030.02
UC RiversideBW0.060.0745.8341.65-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0728.5731.30-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.120.0775.0075.330.060.03
ArizonaP120.120.0779.1778.330.070.04
AkronMAC0.060.0782.6181.130.040.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.075.007.22-0.05-0.06
Miami OHMAC0.120.0734.7833.05-0.04-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0733.3335.05-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.110.0768.0067.990.040.02
SamfordSC0.060.0741.6742.61-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.120.0760.8762.080.030.02
TroySB0.060.0723.8126.72-0.03-0.03
USCP120.060.0778.2673.050.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.110.0781.8283.030.070.04
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0731.8232.69-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.110.0760.8757.160.020.01
New OrleansSlnd0.110.0727.7834.45-0.05-0.02
MichiganB100.060.0670.8366.720.020.02
MississippiSEC0.110.0662.5058.920.030.01
North CarolinaACC0.110.0683.3378.400.070.04
BaylorB120.110.0673.9168.480.050.02
IndianaB100.110.0679.1774.060.060.03
MarylandB100.050.0687.5083.690.040.04
Michigan St.B100.050.0680.0081.580.030.04
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0645.8342.32-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.050.0666.6762.210.020.02
Texas TechB120.050.0660.8755.300.010.01
West VirginiaB120.110.0679.1778.060.060.03
FIUCUSA0.060.0440.9145.29-0.01-0.00
FloridaSEC0.060.0466.6766.330.020.01
La SalleA100.060.0419.0520.33-0.04-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0471.4368.750.030.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0440.9139.26-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0454.1751.670.000.00
ButlerBE0.070.0470.8368.990.030.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0452.0050.230.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0482.6181.130.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.070.0459.0961.310.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0452.9452.060.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0443.4850.66-0.010.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0485.7185.380.050.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0417.3920.66-0.00-0.02
StanfordP120.000.0450.0046.530.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.070.0466.6764.730.020.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0452.1755.090.000.00
UTSACUSA0.070.0413.6413.63-0.05-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0342.8639.23-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0329.1733.11-0.02-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0331.5832.01-0.02-0.01
AmericanPat0.060.0329.1731.18-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0372.0071.540.030.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0340.0043.42-0.01-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0324.0024.57-0.03-0.02
Notre DameACC0.060.0370.8367.820.020.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0328.0030.70-0.03-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0313.6415.80-0.04-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0321.7423.32-0.03-0.02
George MasonA100.050.0333.3333.70-0.02-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0358.3360.690.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0356.5255.730.010.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0370.8368.100.020.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0372.2275.620.020.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0365.2259.750.020.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0368.1871.310.020.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0383.3378.470.040.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0366.6765.220.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.65-0.04-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0356.0052.840.010.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0359.0955.220.010.00
IowaB100.000.0382.6180.520.000.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0364.0057.920.020.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0329.1733.74-0.02-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0325.0027.23-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0333.3330.27-0.02-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0352.0050.780.000.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0364.0062.090.020.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0360.0055.540.010.00
Penn St.B100.050.0350.0046.760.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.14-0.04-0.02
RutgersB100.050.0321.7420.34-0.03-0.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0334.7832.42-0.02-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0364.0064.110.020.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0352.1754.140.000.00
TempleAmer0.050.0363.6459.710.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0376.1972.310.030.01
VCUA100.050.0373.9174.060.030.01