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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


North Dakota

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:229.5
Current RPI:293
Expected SOS:332
Current SOS:310
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:14-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-6
Current OOC Record:1-2
Expected OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC RPI:220
Expected OOC SOS:164



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-494.70.03%
20-5106.20.23%
19-6122.81.00%
18-7143.42.81%
17-8162.26.69%
16-9184.211.69%
15-10206.116.90%
14-11228.718.54%
13-12250.617.23%
12-13271.812.13%
11-14290.57.13%
10-15306.73.65%
9-16318.21.46%
8-17329.60.38%
7-18333.60.10%
6-19340.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Dakota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-25North Florida (254.1)ASunN76-75L0%0.0
11-26Wright St. (167.7)HorzA83-79L0%0.0
11-27Cal St. Bakersfield (118.6)WACN57-55W100%0.0
12-7North Dakota St. (146.4)SumA0-029%-6.6
12-10Northern Iowa (119.2)MVCA0-017%-11.4
12-16North Dakota St. (146.4)SumH0-049%-0.3
12-20Iowa (190.1)B10A0-021%-9.5
12-29Portland St. (282.9)BSkyA0-055%1.4
12-31Sacramento St. (336.4)BSkyA0-073%7.4
1-5Northern Arizona (342.0)BSkyH0-090%15.7
1-7Southern Utah (327.0)BSkyH0-084%11.9
1-12Montana St. (212.6)BSkyA0-038%-3.6
1-14Montana (241.5)BSkyA0-040%-2.9
1-19Weber St. (209.7)BSkyH0-056%1.9
1-21Idaho St. (282.3)BSkyH0-076%8.5
1-26Southern Utah (327.0)BSkyA0-068%5.7
1-28Northern Arizona (342.0)BSkyA0-078%9.4
2-4Northern Colorado (281.3)BSkyH0-075%8.0
2-9Eastern Washington (201.0)BSkyH0-066%4.9
2-11Idaho (230.0)BSkyH0-064%4.3
2-16Idaho St. (282.3)BSkyA0-058%2.3
2-18Weber St. (209.7)BSkyA0-036%-4.3
2-25Northern Colorado (281.3)BSkyA0-056%1.7
3-2Sacramento St. (336.4)BSkyH0-087%13.7
3-4Portland St. (282.9)BSkyH0-074%7.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Dakota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Dakota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Dakota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North DakotaBSky28.1226.4738.4658.90-6.494.71
Northern ColoradoBSky0.005.0016.6740.76-0.00-0.92
Northern ArizonaBSky1.044.9811.1120.61-0.81-2.93
Portland St.BSky0.004.9540.0044.56-0.00-0.54
Southern UtahBSky0.004.940.0025.41-0.00-2.43
Sacramento St.BSky0.004.920.0022.50-0.00-2.71
Idaho St.BSky0.004.8612.5029.52-0.00-1.99
Weber St.BSky0.004.8516.6749.45-0.00-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.004.0057.1458.860.000.71
MontanaBSky0.003.0125.0048.33-0.00-0.10
Montana St.BSky0.003.0142.8656.29-0.000.38
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.002.9971.4356.450.000.39
IdahoBSky0.002.9850.0053.780.000.23
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC18.752.2257.1467.512.680.78
Wright St.Horz18.752.0857.1450.352.680.01
North FloridaASun18.752.070.0031.97-18.75-0.75
IowaB100.002.0444.4437.07-0.00-0.53
Northern IowaMVC0.002.0333.3351.36-0.000.06
DenverSum0.000.4042.8645.65-0.00-0.04
UC DavisBW0.000.3350.0045.660.00-0.03
South DakotaSum0.000.3250.0046.820.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.2625.0040.17-0.00-0.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.2220.0022.88-0.00-0.12
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.2257.1457.780.000.03
IUPUISum0.000.2233.3351.57-0.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.2137.5050.92-0.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.2116.6738.83-0.00-0.05
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1985.7153.770.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.1842.8633.51-0.00-0.06
BYUWCC0.000.1862.5067.080.000.06
Oral RobertsSum0.000.180.0022.75-0.00-0.10
XavierBE0.000.1887.5070.880.000.08
Washington St.P120.000.1842.8629.20-0.00-0.07
Fort WayneSum0.000.1562.5070.890.000.06
Western IllinoisSum0.000.150.0016.33-0.00-0.10
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1528.5733.56-0.00-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1525.0045.82-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1560.0058.900.000.03
NJITASun0.000.1444.4451.58-0.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.1442.8650.57-0.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1433.3332.79-0.00-0.05
NebraskaB100.000.1457.1444.830.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.1450.0040.690.00-0.03
OaklandHorz0.000.1485.7177.000.000.07
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1485.7175.250.000.07
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1437.5037.96-0.00-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1442.8644.89-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.1462.5042.780.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.1155.5637.870.00-0.03
ArizonaP121.040.1177.7870.290.580.05
ArkansasSEC0.000.1187.5069.040.000.04
StanfordP120.000.1166.6758.600.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.1171.4348.030.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.1175.0062.450.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1125.0030.02-0.00-0.04
StetsonASun0.000.1125.0026.46-0.00-0.05
UC RiversideBW0.000.110.0031.31-0.00-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.1150.0050.170.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1171.4358.830.000.02
Southern IllinoisMVC1.040.1157.1449.420.15-0.00
Little RockSB0.000.1066.6761.400.000.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1057.1453.860.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.1077.7876.550.000.05
WyomingMWC0.000.1066.6753.730.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0820.0022.08-0.00-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0842.8658.24-0.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0875.0069.680.000.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.040.080.0033.71-1.04-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0855.5649.660.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0857.1450.730.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0740.0054.81-0.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0775.0066.120.000.02
BucknellPat0.000.0770.0070.530.000.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0733.3352.03-0.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.07100.0074.830.000.04
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0771.4360.090.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0757.1471.170.000.03
High PointBSth0.000.0737.5044.87-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0757.1464.540.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0762.5060.090.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.0711.1132.47-0.00-0.03
NavyPat0.000.0733.3338.56-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.070.0020.63-0.00-0.04
PacificWCC0.000.0742.8645.98-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0744.4438.15-0.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0771.4355.570.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0744.4441.55-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0737.5025.74-0.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.070.0020.21-0.00-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0750.0045.130.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0760.0067.820.000.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0742.8650.98-0.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0777.7886.650.000.05
Boise St.MWC0.000.0750.0056.890.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0725.0043.29-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0728.5731.07-0.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0725.0038.98-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.070.0021.30-0.00-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0750.0050.980.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0737.5048.85-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0742.8640.38-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0762.5058.130.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0725.0023.99-0.00-0.04
Texas TechB120.000.0787.5061.660.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0737.5038.08-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0712.5037.11-0.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0775.0066.090.000.02
Penn St.B101.040.0766.6746.170.35-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0712.5033.31-0.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0750.0045.920.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0737.5031.15-0.00-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0785.7169.920.000.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.0720.0035.46-0.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.0757.1452.140.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0666.6751.140.000.00
MarylandB100.000.0687.5059.030.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0677.7877.640.000.04
RutgersB100.000.0687.5050.250.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.040.0020.72-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC1.040.0457.1443.930.15-0.00
SMUAmer1.040.0466.6766.650.350.01
AuburnSEC1.040.0485.7157.280.740.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0442.8644.90-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0414.2935.05-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC1.040.0477.7872.930.580.02
LSUSEC1.040.0471.4347.690.45-0.00
Miami FLACC1.040.0477.7866.740.580.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0442.8645.50-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0450.0057.950.000.01
SyracuseACC1.040.0462.5062.080.260.01
George MasonA100.000.0462.5046.490.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0487.5081.910.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0322.2246.51-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0375.0058.720.000.01
Georgia St.SB1.040.0350.0061.350.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0312.5030.17-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0357.1454.200.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0371.4363.080.000.01
Miami OHMAC1.040.0337.5028.47-0.26-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6738.87-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0060.950.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0375.0070.570.000.01
TexasB120.000.0350.0038.730.00-0.01
ToledoMAC1.040.0337.5047.57-0.26-0.00
UtahP120.000.0380.0058.220.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0387.5074.510.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0375.0071.330.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0375.0056.270.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0377.7865.840.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0360.0058.780.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0388.8966.920.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0047.990.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0050.980.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0076.970.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0377.7862.010.000.01
OregonP120.000.0375.0072.800.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0019.08-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0375.0054.480.000.00
USCP120.000.03100.0076.400.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.0388.8978.430.000.02