North Dakota

Conference:	BSky
Expected RPI:	226.0
Current RPI:	226
Expected SOS:	285
Current SOS:	285
Current Record:	14-16
Expected Record:	14-16
Current Conf Record:	13-9
Expected Conf Record:	13-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-7
Current OOC Record:	1-7
Expected OOC Record:	1-7
Expected OOC RPI:	307
Expected OOC SOS:	143

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-16	226.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Dakota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Kansas St. (19.0)	B12	A	85-52	L	0%
11-17	Northern Iowa (83.0)	MVC	A	72-47	L	0%
11-20	Hawaii (210.0)	BW	A	71-66	L	0%
11-28	South Dakota St. (62.0)	Sum	A	71-70	L	0%
12-5	Missouri Kansas City (284.0)	Sum	H	70-73	L	0%
12-9	North Dakota St. (72.0)	Sum	A	72-52	L	0%
12-17	Southern Utah (314.0)	BSky	A	79-67	L	0%
12-21	Northern Colorado (257.0)	BSky	H	66-75	L	0%
12-28	Bowling Green (274.0)	MAC	H	56-53	W	100%
1-3	Idaho St. (337.0)	BSky	A	53-66	W	100%
1-5	Weber St. (84.0)	BSky	A	95-63	L	0%
1-10	Montana (66.0)	BSky	H	62-77	L	0%
1-12	Montana St. (317.0)	BSky	H	86-73	W	100%
1-17	Eastern Washington (321.0)	BSky	H	65-47	W	100%
1-19	Portland St. (339.0)	BSky	H	85-76	W	100%
1-24	Sacramento St. (283.0)	BSky	A	67-58	L	0%
1-26	Northern Arizona (255.0)	BSky	A	79-81	W	100%
1-31	Weber St. (84.0)	BSky	H	51-66	L	0%
2-2	Idaho St. (337.0)	BSky	H	69-52	W	100%
2-7	Montana St. (317.0)	BSky	A	73-82	W	100%
2-9	Montana (66.0)	BSky	A	78-58	L	0%
2-14	Sacramento St. (283.0)	BSky	H	49-48	W	100%
2-16	Northern Arizona (255.0)	BSky	H	72-74	L	0%
2-20	Northern Colorado (257.0)	BSky	A	62-64	W	100%
2-23	Nebraska Omaha (285.0)	Sum	A	83-75	L	0%
2-28	Portland St. (339.0)	BSky	A	66-74	W	100%
3-2	Eastern Washington (321.0)	BSky	A	74-78	W	100%
3-9	Southern Utah (314.0)	BSky	H	68-61	W	100%
3-14	Southern Utah (314.0)	BSky	N	69-52	W	100%
3-15	Weber St. (84.0)	BSky	N	76-74	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Dakota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

North Dakota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against North Dakota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
North Dakota	BSky	26.65	26.65	49.28	49.28	-0.39	-0.39
Weber St.	BSky	6.21	6.21	77.78	77.78	3.45	3.45
Southern Utah	BSky	6.09	6.09	30.77	30.77	-2.34	-2.34
Montana	BSky	4.65	4.65	77.78	77.78	2.58	2.58
Northern Colorado	BSky	4.63	4.63	37.04	37.04	-1.20	-1.20
Northern Arizona	BSky	4.61	4.61	33.33	33.33	-1.54	-1.54
Montana St.	BSky	4.54	4.54	42.31	42.31	-0.70	-0.70
Eastern Washington	BSky	4.49	4.49	34.48	34.48	-1.39	-1.39
Idaho St.	BSky	4.48	4.48	18.52	18.52	-2.82	-2.82
Sacramento St.	BSky	4.48	4.48	44.00	44.00	-0.54	-0.54
Portland St.	BSky	4.47	4.47	25.00	25.00	-2.24	-2.24
South Dakota St.	Sum	1.92	1.92	70.00	70.00	0.77	0.77
North Dakota St.	Sum	1.89	1.89	70.00	70.00	0.75	0.75
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	1.88	1.88	20.00	20.00	-1.13	-1.13
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	1.83	1.83	32.14	32.14	-0.65	-0.65
Northern Iowa	MVC	1.72	1.72	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Hawaii	BW	1.72	1.72	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Kansas St.	B12	1.69	1.69	78.12	78.12	0.95	0.95
Bowling Green	MAC	1.67	1.67	37.93	37.93	-0.40	-0.40
South Dakota	Sum	0.30	0.30	28.57	28.57	-0.13	-0.13
UC Davis	BW	0.28	0.28	45.16	45.16	-0.03	-0.03
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.27	0.27	45.16	45.16	-0.03	-0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.27	0.27	13.33	13.33	-0.20	-0.20
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.25	0.25	40.00	40.00	-0.05	-0.05
Western Illinois	Sum	0.25	0.25	71.43	71.43	0.11	0.11
Oakland	Sum	0.22	0.22	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.20	0.20	28.57	28.57	-0.09	-0.09
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.20	0.20	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.19	0.19	64.52	64.52	0.06	0.06
Utah Valley	GWC	0.19	0.19	35.71	35.71	-0.05	-0.05
Portland	WCC	0.18	0.18	30.00	30.00	-0.07	-0.07
UC Riverside	BW	0.18	0.18	14.29	14.29	-0.13	-0.13
Oregon	P12	0.17	0.17	76.47	76.47	0.09	0.09
Idaho	WAC	0.17	0.17	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
UC Irvine	BW	0.17	0.17	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.14	0.14	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.14	0.14	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	WAC	0.14	0.14	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
Utah St.	WAC	0.14	0.14	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.14	0.14	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
Texas Christian	B12	0.14	0.14	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Oregon St.	P12	0.12	0.12	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.12	0.12	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.12	0.12	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Colorado St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	74.19	74.19	0.06	0.06
Seattle	WAC	0.11	0.11	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.11	0.11	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.11	0.11	93.75	93.75	0.10	0.10
Washington St.	P12	0.11	0.11	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Iowa St.	B12	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.08	0.08	81.25	81.25	0.05	0.05
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Texas	B12	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Davidson	SC	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Pacific	BW	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.03	0.03	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00