North Dakota

Conference:	GWC
Expected RPI:	265.8
Current RPI:	284
Expected SOS:	311
Current SOS:	252
Current Record:	6-12
Expected Record:	10-15
Current Conf Record:	2-3
Expected Conf Record:	5-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-9
Current OOC Record:	4-9
Expected OOC Record:	5-10
Expected OOC RPI:	232
Expected OOC SOS:	178

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-12	206.6	2.34%
12-13	229.6	13.83%
11-14	253.3	28.29%
10-15	274.4	31.38%
9-16	291.7	17.65%
8-17	305.1	5.39%
7-18	318.7	1.05%
6-19	332.2	0.06%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Dakota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-14	Idaho St. (263.0)	BSky	H	63-47	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Bradley (247.1)	MVC	A	78-69	L	0%	0.0
11-23	Montana (99.2)	BSky	H	88-81	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Western Illinois (181.7)	Sum	H	62-65	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Idaho St. (263.0)	BSky	A	76-63	L	0%	0.0
12-7	Missouri Kansas City (242.4)	Sum	A	78-75	L	0%	0.0
12-10	South Dakota St. (58.0)	Sum	A	92-54	L	0%	0.0
12-15	South Dakota St. (58.0)	Sum	H	89-70	W	100%	0.0
12-18	Sacramento St. (304.4)	BSky	A	75-64	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Western Illinois (181.7)	Sum	A	68-46	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Kansas (8.6)	B12	A	84-58	L	0%	0.0
1-7	New Mexico (30.5)	MWC	A	85-57	L	0%	0.0
1-17	North Dakota St. (127.4)	Sum	H	59-54	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Utah Valley (220.8)	GWC	A	72-64	L	0%	0.0
1-26	NJ Inst of Technology (294.0)	GWC	H	80-63	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Chicago St. (333.6)	GWC	H	71-61	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Houston Baptist (312.8)	GWC	A	69-62	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Texas Pan American (307.3)	GWC	A	70-58	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Chicago St. (333.6)	GWC	A	0-0		73%	6.5
2-11	NJ Inst of Technology (294.0)	GWC	A	0-0		54%	1.1
2-16	Louisiana Tech (202.9)	WAC	A	0-0		27%	-6.6
2-18	Longwood (318.3)	ind	A	0-0		69%	5.3
2-25	Houston Baptist (312.8)	GWC	H	0-0		80%	9.3
2-27	Texas Pan American (307.3)	GWC	H	0-0		76%	7.8
3-3	Utah Valley (220.8)	GWC	H	0-0		53%	0.8

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Dakota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

North Dakota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against North Dakota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
North Dakota	GWC	26.57	26.51	31.03	43.57	-10.08	-3.41
Utah Valley	GWC	3.18	4.68	52.38	56.45	0.15	0.60
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	3.04	4.67	35.29	39.73	-0.89	-0.96
Houston Baptist	GWC	3.11	4.63	21.05	25.87	-1.80	-2.24
Chicago St.	GWC	3.05	4.61	9.52	12.76	-2.47	-3.43
Texas Pan American	GWC	3.05	4.60	15.00	21.62	-2.14	-2.61
South Dakota St.	Sum	5.83	4.30	76.19	77.36	3.05	2.35
Western Illinois	Sum	5.80	4.28	47.06	43.83	-0.34	-0.53
Idaho St.	BSky	5.82	4.19	30.00	31.67	-2.33	-1.53
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	3.29	2.55	31.82	32.88	-1.20	-0.87
North Dakota St.	Sum	3.11	2.37	65.00	65.97	0.93	0.76
Montana	BSky	3.16	2.29	75.00	76.84	1.58	1.23
Sacramento St.	BSky	2.97	2.22	26.32	30.54	-1.41	-0.86
Longwood	ind	0.14	2.19	28.57	25.58	-0.06	-1.07
New Mexico	MWC	3.03	2.18	80.95	80.35	1.88	1.32
Bradley	MVC	2.84	2.03	20.83	22.35	-1.66	-1.12
Kansas	B12	2.78	2.00	77.27	77.70	1.52	1.11
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.00	2.00	42.86	42.48	-0.00	-0.30
Oakland	Sum	0.79	0.52	48.00	50.28	-0.03	0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.79	0.51	33.33	32.18	-0.26	-0.18
IUPUI	Sum	0.60	0.44	34.78	35.53	-0.18	-0.13
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.64	0.44	80.77	80.77	0.39	0.27
Southern Utah	Sum	0.64	0.44	45.45	44.27	-0.06	-0.05
South Dakota	Sum	0.60	0.44	26.32	28.82	-0.28	-0.19
Wyoming	MWC	0.50	0.43	76.19	70.71	0.26	0.18
Portland St.	BSky	0.32	0.40	42.86	45.93	-0.05	-0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.21	0.35	47.83	47.88	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.40	0.33	13.64	16.23	-0.29	-0.22
Montana St.	BSky	0.45	0.33	45.00	41.71	-0.05	-0.05
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.27	0.29	40.91	44.29	-0.05	-0.03
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.46	0.29	30.00	31.40	-0.18	-0.11
Weber St.	BSky	0.46	0.29	80.00	76.71	0.27	0.16
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.20	0.26	76.19	75.98	0.11	0.13
Campbell	BSth	0.20	0.23	57.69	58.27	0.03	0.04
Seattle	ind	0.13	0.22	22.22	32.99	-0.07	-0.08
Air Force	MWC	0.19	0.21	47.37	42.13	-0.01	-0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.19	0.21	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.24	0.21	84.00	82.62	0.17	0.14
Army	Pat	0.14	0.19	40.91	41.68	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada	WAC	0.12	0.18	80.95	76.42	0.08	0.09
Oklahoma	B12	0.32	0.17	56.52	53.94	0.04	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.22	0.16	33.33	34.54	-0.07	-0.05
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.07	0.15	36.36	40.96	-0.02	-0.03
Texas St.	Slnd	0.14	0.15	22.22	27.56	-0.08	-0.07
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.13	0.15	56.52	56.80	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.19	0.15	69.57	66.59	0.07	0.05
DePaul	BE	0.13	0.15	47.83	42.19	-0.01	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.13	0.15	38.10	40.84	-0.03	-0.03
Evansville	MVC	0.11	0.14	47.83	47.08	-0.00	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.13	0.14	57.14	49.57	0.02	-0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.25	0.14	59.09	57.69	0.05	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.19	0.14	42.86	41.08	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.13	0.14	85.71	78.11	0.09	0.08
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.13	0.14	69.57	69.00	0.05	0.05
Illinois St.	MVC	0.12	0.14	62.50	62.07	0.03	0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.17	0.14	34.78	32.10	-0.05	-0.05
Wichita St.	MVC	0.17	0.14	82.61	80.50	0.11	0.08
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.08	0.12	8.70	12.14	-0.06	-0.09
Seton Hall	BE	0.08	0.12	65.22	63.65	0.02	0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.14	0.11	54.17	54.76	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.14	0.11	80.95	77.45	0.09	0.06
Michigan	B10	0.20	0.11	69.57	66.33	0.08	0.04
Santa Clara	WCC	0.13	0.11	28.57	26.31	-0.06	-0.05
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.11	27.27	35.05	-0.03	-0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.11	34.78	37.18	-0.02	-0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.11	69.57	65.18	0.02	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.13	0.11	63.64	63.17	0.04	0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.00	0.11	27.27	26.96	-0.00	-0.05
Ohio St.	B10	0.13	0.11	87.50	85.41	0.09	0.08
Colorado St.	MWC	0.13	0.11	66.67	60.84	0.04	0.02
Fresno St.	WAC	0.07	0.11	39.13	44.46	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.00	0.11	57.14	53.02	0.00	0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.07	0.11	50.00	51.46	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.19	0.11	70.83	62.75	0.08	0.03
Western Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.11	40.91	42.97	-0.02	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.19	0.11	47.62	47.19	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.10	18.18	19.91	-0.04	-0.06
Missouri St.	MVC	0.12	0.10	54.17	57.11	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.10	47.83	42.67	-0.00	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.08	0.08	30.43	29.49	-0.03	-0.03
Dayton	A10	0.15	0.08	60.87	60.96	0.03	0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.15	0.08	28.57	29.05	-0.06	-0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.08	0.08	43.48	42.98	-0.01	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.08	0.08	70.83	71.06	0.03	0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.08	0.08	68.00	69.08	0.03	0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	73.91	68.65	0.04	0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.08	0.08	50.00	46.87	0.00	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.08	0.08	56.52	55.97	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.07	0.08	65.00	66.71	0.02	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.07	0.08	59.09	56.38	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.07	0.08	25.00	23.73	-0.03	-0.04
Rice	CUSA	0.07	0.08	47.62	46.51	-0.00	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.07	66.67	69.71	0.02	0.03
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.07	14.29	14.31	-0.05	-0.05
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.07	47.62	44.58	-0.00	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.07	0.07	61.90	67.29	0.02	0.03
Maine	AE	0.06	0.07	47.62	48.01	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.07	5.26	7.29	-0.06	-0.06
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	63.64	57.79	0.02	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.13	0.07	56.52	53.76	0.02	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.00	0.07	14.29	16.80	-0.00	-0.05
St. John's	BE	0.07	0.07	43.48	40.24	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.07	0.07	61.90	58.61	0.02	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.07	0.07	27.78	29.77	-0.03	-0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	44.44	45.20	-0.01	-0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.13	0.07	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.13	0.07	30.43	31.40	-0.05	-0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.07	17.39	19.76	-0.04	-0.04
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.07	55.00	57.42	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.07	69.57	65.37	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.07	69.57	61.84	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.07	54.17	49.41	0.01	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.07	31.82	34.86	-0.02	-0.02
Pacific	BW	0.00	0.07	35.00	37.55	-0.00	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.00	0.07	26.32	29.64	-0.00	-0.03
Utah	P12	0.13	0.07	18.18	15.00	-0.08	-0.05
Long Beach St.	BW	0.13	0.07	71.43	73.45	0.05	0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.00	0.07	68.42	66.51	0.00	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.12	0.07	45.45	41.17	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.12	0.07	72.00	72.22	0.05	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.12	0.07	50.00	44.98	0.00	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.06	0.07	82.61	81.43	0.04	0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.12	0.07	36.00	40.36	-0.03	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.12	0.07	26.32	29.85	-0.06	-0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.07	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Southern California	P12	0.12	0.07	25.00	25.08	-0.06	-0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.12	0.07	75.00	74.01	0.06	0.03
Wofford	SC	0.12	0.07	56.52	57.20	0.02	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.06	0.06	90.91	83.90	0.05	0.04
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	52.17	50.01	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	56.52	54.28	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.12	0.06	70.83	66.50	0.05	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	73.91	68.41	0.03	0.02
Missouri	B12	0.06	0.06	91.67	87.92	0.05	0.05
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	62.50	61.43	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.20	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.06	0.06	50.00	45.20	0.00	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	30.43	25.84	-0.02	-0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.07	0.04	50.00	56.75	0.00	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.07	0.04	0.00	5.31	-0.07	-0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.00	0.04	75.00	76.02	0.00	0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.00	0.04	27.27	23.78	-0.00	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.00	0.04	14.29	17.12	-0.00	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.00	0.04	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.00	0.04	47.83	47.36	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.00	0.04	81.82	81.50	0.00	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.00	0.04	9.52	13.17	-0.00	-0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.00	0.04	69.57	70.42	0.00	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.07	0.04	21.74	21.75	-0.04	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.00	0.04	35.00	40.74	-0.00	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.07	0.04	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.00	0.04	69.57	65.88	0.00	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.00	0.04	81.82	76.80	0.00	0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.00	0.04	45.00	44.18	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.07	0.04	35.00	39.40	-0.02	-0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.00	0.03	43.48	44.26	-0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.06	0.03	30.43	26.42	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.00	0.03	8.70	8.99	-0.00	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.00	0.03	19.05	19.39	-0.00	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.03	77.27	73.50	0.03	0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	55.00	54.45	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.00	0.03	27.78	29.51	-0.00	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.00	0.03	38.10	37.80	-0.00	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.00	0.03	85.71	82.22	0.00	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.06	0.03	77.27	77.70	0.03	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.00	0.03	41.67	40.47	-0.00	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.06	0.03	77.27	77.37	0.03	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.03	79.17	78.05	0.03	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.03	82.61	79.93	0.04	0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.06	0.03	36.36	39.73	-0.02	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.03	34.78	32.05	-0.02	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.03	21.74	25.63	-0.03	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.03	96.00	93.53	0.06	0.03
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.03	54.55	48.54	0.01	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.03	4.00	5.27	-0.06	-0.03
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.03	54.55	56.78	0.01	0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.03	34.78	37.27	-0.02	-0.01