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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


North Dakota

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:218.0
Current RPI:218
Expected SOS:261
Current SOS:261
Current Record:14-15
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:12-9
Expected Conf Record:12-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-5
Current OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC RPI:276
Expected OOC SOS:238



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15218.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Dakota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Wisconsin (43.0)B10A78-64L0%0.0
11-21Bowling Green (200.0)MACN59-77W100%0.0
11-22Florida Gulf Coast (209.0)ASunA73-60L0%0.0
11-23Youngstown St. (275.0)HorzN69-79L0%0.0
11-28Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCH51-97L0%0.0
12-5Bradley (306.0)MVCA59-65W100%0.0
12-11North Dakota St. (120.0)SumH67-69L0%0.0
12-22Kansas St. (92.0)B12A63-49L0%0.0
12-31Idaho (191.0)BSkyH71-74L0%0.0
1-2Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyH79-71W100%0.0
1-7Weber St. (108.0)BSkyA74-62L0%0.0
1-9Idaho St. (256.0)BSkyA76-84W100%0.0
1-14Montana St. (260.0)BSkyH85-68W100%0.0
1-16Montana (145.0)BSkyH61-65L0%0.0
1-21Northern Arizona (333.0)BSkyA59-101W100%0.0
1-23Southern Utah (336.0)BSkyA72-88W100%0.0
1-30Northern Colorado (304.0)BSkyA71-70L0%0.0
2-4Idaho St. (256.0)BSkyH76-60W100%0.0
2-6Weber St. (108.0)BSkyH78-71W100%0.0
2-11Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyA95-85L0%0.0
2-13Idaho (191.0)BSkyA65-64L0%0.0
2-20Northern Colorado (304.0)BSkyH74-73W100%0.0
2-25Portland St. (282.0)BSkyH80-77W100%0.0
2-27Sacramento St. (273.0)BSkyH97-71W100%0.0
3-3Montana (145.0)BSkyA71-46L0%0.0
3-5Montana St. (260.0)BSkyA89-82L0%0.0
3-8Southern Utah (336.0)BSkyN85-80W100%0.0
3-10Idaho St. (256.0)BSkyN49-83W100%0.0
3-11Weber St. (108.0)BSkyN83-78L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Dakota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Dakota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Dakota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North DakotaBSky26.5326.5349.6149.61-0.21-0.21
Weber St.BSky6.096.0975.0075.003.053.05
Idaho St.BSky6.026.0253.8553.850.460.46
MontanaBSky4.474.4759.2659.260.830.83
Northern ColoradoBSky4.444.4425.9325.93-2.14-2.14
Southern UtahBSky4.434.4315.3815.38-3.07-3.07
IdahoBSky4.394.3958.6258.620.760.76
Eastern WashingtonBSky4.364.3650.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky4.334.3342.8642.86-0.62-0.62
Portland St.BSky2.882.8839.2939.29-0.62-0.62
Sacramento St.BSky2.862.8642.8642.86-0.41-0.41
Northern ArizonaBSky2.832.8311.1111.11-2.20-2.20
North Dakota St.Sum1.931.9356.6756.670.260.26
Bowling GreenMAC1.781.7845.1645.16-0.17-0.17
Youngstown St.Horz1.781.7827.5927.59-0.80-0.80
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.781.7853.5753.570.130.13
Northern IowaMVC1.781.7862.5062.500.440.44
BradleyMVC1.781.7813.3313.33-1.30-1.30
Kansas St.B121.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB101.721.7261.2961.290.390.39
DenverSum0.350.3551.6151.610.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.290.2933.3333.33-0.10-0.10
South Dakota St.Sum0.280.2877.4277.420.150.15
PortlandWCC0.230.2335.4835.48-0.07-0.07
Washington St.P120.230.2326.6726.67-0.11-0.11
San Jose St.MWC0.230.2321.4321.43-0.13-0.13
DrakeMVC0.220.2220.0020.00-0.13-0.13
Utah St.MWC0.200.2048.2848.28-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.200.2040.0040.00-0.04-0.04
KansasB120.200.2087.8887.880.150.15
Nebraska OmahaSum0.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.170.1772.4172.410.080.08
Central MichiganMAC0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.150.1575.7675.760.080.08
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.150.1518.5218.52-0.09-0.09
IUPUISum0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
BYUWCC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.090.0926.9226.92-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
StetsonASun0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
NevadaMWC0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
PacificWCC0.090.0923.0823.08-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0987.1087.100.060.06
UMBCAE0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0823.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Green BayHorz0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
SyracuseACC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
OhioMAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
HawaiiBW0.080.0883.3383.330.060.06
IPFWSum0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Murray St.OVC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
PurdueB100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0829.1729.17-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
TCUB120.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
UNLVMWC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
UTSACUSA0.060.0613.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
ArizonaP120.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
DavidsonA100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
PittsburghACC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
MichiganB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
USCP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02