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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


North Dakota

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:197.0
Current RPI:197
Expected SOS:226
Current SOS:226
Current Record:15-16
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:14-9
Expected Conf Record:14-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-6
Current OOC Record:1-7
Expected OOC Record:1-7
Expected OOC RPI:271
Expected OOC SOS:53



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-16197.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Dakota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-19Wisconsin (6.0)B10A103-85L0%0.0
11-24North Dakota St. (35.0)SumH95-77W100%0.0
11-29Cal Poly (208.0)BWN43-70L0%0.0
11-30Oregon (28.0)P12A91-76L0%0.0
12-1Pacific (133.0)WCCN93-76L0%0.0
12-7Butler (150.0)BEA79-64L0%0.0
12-11Bowling Green (194.0)MACA79-69L0%0.0
12-21South Dakota St. (138.0)SumH70-77L0%0.0
12-29Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyA84-66L0%0.0
1-2Southern Utah (346.0)BSkyH65-61W100%0.0
1-9Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyH66-62W100%0.0
1-11Weber St. (149.0)BSkyH60-72L0%0.0
1-16Montana (183.0)BSkyA84-71L0%0.0
1-18Montana St. (275.0)BSkyA69-72W100%0.0
1-23Sacramento St. (263.0)BSkyH82-71W100%0.0
1-25Northern Arizona (247.0)BSkyH84-68W100%0.0
1-30Eastern Washington (228.0)BSkyA61-73W100%0.0
2-1Portland St. (252.0)BSkyA70-68L0%0.0
2-6Weber St. (149.0)BSkyA84-72L0%0.0
2-8Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyA75-80W100%0.0
2-13Montana St. (275.0)BSkyH70-78L0%0.0
2-15Montana (183.0)BSkyH74-69W100%0.0
2-20Sacramento St. (263.0)BSkyA71-65L0%0.0
2-22Northern Arizona (247.0)BSkyA63-75W100%0.0
2-27Portland St. (252.0)BSkyH83-73W100%0.0
3-1Eastern Washington (228.0)BSkyH69-67W100%0.0
3-4Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyH94-90W100%0.0
3-6Southern Utah (346.0)BSkyA77-71L0%0.0
3-13Sacramento St. (263.0)BSkyN79-76W100%0.0
3-14Portland St. (252.0)BSkyN79-63W100%0.0
3-15Weber St. (149.0)BSkyA88-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Dakota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Dakota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Dakota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North DakotaBSky26.7726.7750.3950.390.210.21
Portland St.BSky6.036.0353.8553.850.460.46
Weber St.BSky6.026.0256.0056.000.720.72
Sacramento St.BSky5.975.9744.0044.00-0.72-0.72
Northern ColoradoBSky4.554.5555.5655.560.510.51
MontanaBSky4.524.5253.8553.850.350.35
Northern ArizonaBSky4.484.4848.2848.28-0.15-0.15
Eastern WashingtonBSky4.414.4148.1548.15-0.16-0.16
Montana St.BSky4.414.4140.7440.74-0.82-0.82
Southern UtahBSky4.414.410.000.00-4.41-4.41
Idaho St.BSky4.414.4136.0036.00-1.23-1.23
South Dakota St.Sum1.731.7355.5655.560.190.19
North Dakota St.Sum1.671.6781.4881.481.051.05
OregonP121.671.6770.9770.970.700.70
Cal PolyBW1.671.6734.4834.48-0.52-0.52
PacificWCC1.661.6646.4346.43-0.12-0.12
WisconsinB101.641.6478.1278.120.920.92
Bowling GreenMAC1.641.6433.3333.33-0.55-0.55
ButlerBE1.611.6141.3841.38-0.28-0.28
UC IrvineBW0.330.3365.6265.620.100.10
UC RiversideBW0.310.3127.5927.59-0.14-0.14
IdahoWAC0.260.2645.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.260.2638.7138.71-0.06-0.06
PortlandWCC0.250.2548.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.250.2545.4545.45-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.250.2576.4776.470.130.13
UC DavisBW0.220.2224.1424.14-0.12-0.12
WashingtonP120.220.2253.1253.120.010.01
IPFWSum0.200.2067.7467.740.070.07
San FranciscoWCC0.200.2063.3363.330.050.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.200.2035.4835.48-0.06-0.06
Utah St.MWC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.170.1725.9325.93-0.08-0.08
BYUWCC0.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
HawaiiBW0.160.1662.0762.070.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
DenverSum0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
UNLVMWC0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.140.1462.0762.070.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP120.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
IUPUISum0.120.1210.3410.34-0.09-0.09
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
WyomingMWC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Arizona St.P120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.1167.8667.860.040.04
Fresno St.MWC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
USCP120.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
San Jose St.MWC0.090.0917.2417.24-0.06-0.06
UtahP120.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Texas TechB120.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
St. John'sBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Washington St.P120.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
IllinoisB100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0687.1087.100.040.04
DelawareCAA0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Kansas St.B120.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
NevadaMWC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
UTSACUSA0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
Green BayHorz0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
NebraskaB100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
West VirginiaB120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00