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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


North Dakota

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:144.0
Current RPI:144
Expected SOS:305
Current SOS:305
Current Record:19-9
Expected Record:19-9
Current Conf Record:17-4
Expected Conf Record:17-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-5
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC RPI:176
Expected OOC SOS:70



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-9144.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Dakota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-25North Florida (217.0)ASunN76-75L0%0.0
11-26Wright St. (115.0)HorzA83-79L0%0.0
11-27Cal St. Bakersfield (75.0)WACN57-55W100%0.0
12-7North Dakota St. (111.0)SumA56-74W100%0.0
12-10Northern Iowa (163.0)MVCA78-70L0%0.0
12-16North Dakota St. (111.0)SumH70-87L0%0.0
12-20Iowa (81.0)B10A84-73L0%0.0
12-29Portland St. (268.0)BSkyA99-62L0%0.0
12-31Sacramento St. (293.0)BSkyA82-90W100%0.0
1-5Northern Arizona (335.0)BSkyH68-63W100%0.0
1-7Southern Utah (341.0)BSkyH95-65W100%0.0
1-12Montana St. (253.0)BSkyA85-90W100%0.0
1-14Montana (221.0)BSkyA76-70L0%0.0
1-19Weber St. (185.0)BSkyH83-77W100%0.0
1-21Idaho St. (340.0)BSkyH89-64W100%0.0
1-26Southern Utah (341.0)BSkyA89-91W100%0.0
1-28Northern Arizona (335.0)BSkyA68-67L0%0.0
2-4Northern Colorado (286.0)BSkyH87-77W100%0.0
2-9Eastern Washington (148.0)BSkyH95-86W100%0.0
2-11Idaho (209.0)BSkyH88-65W100%0.0
2-16Idaho St. (340.0)BSkyA61-77W100%0.0
2-18Weber St. (185.0)BSkyA68-77W100%0.0
2-25Northern Colorado (286.0)BSkyA81-84W100%0.0
3-2Sacramento St. (293.0)BSkyH53-57L0%0.0
3-4Portland St. (268.0)BSkyH82-73W100%0.0
3-9Portland St. (268.0)BSkyN95-72W100%0.0
3-10Idaho (209.0)BSkyN69-64W100%0.0
3-11Weber St. (185.0)BSkyN93-89W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Dakota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Dakota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Dakota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North DakotaBSky26.6526.6571.5471.5411.4811.48
Portland St.BSky6.296.2944.0044.00-0.75-0.75
Weber St.BSky6.266.2662.9662.961.621.62
Northern ArizonaBSky4.654.6524.1424.14-2.40-2.40
Southern UtahBSky4.644.6413.7913.79-3.36-3.36
Sacramento St.BSky4.574.5737.0437.04-1.18-1.18
Northern ColoradoBSky4.564.5636.0036.00-1.28-1.28
IdahoBSky4.524.5259.2659.260.840.84
Idaho St.BSky4.514.5114.2914.29-3.22-3.22
North Dakota St.Sum3.573.5761.5461.540.820.82
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.932.9366.6766.670.980.98
MontanaBSky2.882.8848.3948.39-0.09-0.09
Montana St.BSky2.872.8748.2848.28-0.10-0.10
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC2.002.0070.3770.370.810.81
North FloridaASun1.851.8534.4834.48-0.57-0.57
Wright St.Horz1.851.8558.6258.620.320.32
IowaB101.821.8254.8454.840.180.18
Northern IowaMVC1.811.8142.8642.86-0.26-0.26
DenverSum0.370.3753.3353.330.020.02
UC DavisBW0.330.3362.5062.500.080.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.280.2850.0050.000.000.00
South DakotaSum0.280.2864.5264.520.080.08
IUPUISum0.250.2540.0040.00-0.05-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.240.2442.8642.86-0.03-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.220.2224.1424.14-0.11-0.11
PepperdineWCC0.210.2126.6726.67-0.10-0.10
San FranciscoWCC0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
Washington St.P120.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.180.1866.6766.670.060.06
SeattleWAC0.180.1837.0437.04-0.05-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.160.1621.4321.43-0.09-0.09
XavierBE0.150.1561.7661.760.040.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1323.0823.08-0.07-0.07
Arizona St.P120.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Little RockSB0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
NebraskaB100.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1229.4129.41-0.05-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.120.1273.3373.330.050.05
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
UNLVMWC0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
ArizonaP120.100.1088.2488.240.070.07
OklahomaB120.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1083.3383.330.060.06
PortlandWCC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.090.0922.2222.22-0.05-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
ColoradoP120.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
IonaMAAC0.090.0964.7164.710.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
WisconsinB100.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
WyomingMWC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
BucknellPat0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
ButlerBE0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
High PointBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.063.333.33-0.06-0.06
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0687.8887.880.050.05
Boise St.MWC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Texas TechB120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
IllinoisB100.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
IndianaB100.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
MarylandB100.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
PurdueB100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
RutgersB100.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
SMUAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UtahP120.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
USCP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01