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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


North Dakota

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:310.0
Current RPI:310
Expected SOS:243
Current SOS:243
Current Record:6-22
Expected Record:6-22
Current Conf Record:4-14
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-9
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:230
Expected OOC SOS:98



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-22310.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Dakota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCA64-52L0%0.0
11-21South Dakota St. (90.0)SumA74-72L0%0.0
11-26Alabama St. (258.0)SWACN75-68W100%0.0
11-28Utah (20.0)P12A90-53L0%0.0
11-29Texas Pan American (334.0)WACN78-60L0%0.0
12-6Drake (269.0)MVCA62-63W100%0.0
12-8Minnesota (98.0)B10A92-56L0%0.0
12-13North Dakota St. (92.0)SumA71-42L0%0.0
12-22Marquette (147.0)BEA67-54L0%0.0
1-1Montana St. (325.0)BSkyA60-67W100%0.0
1-3Montana (144.0)BSkyA74-63L0%0.0
1-8Sacramento St. (141.0)BSkyH61-63L0%0.0
1-10Portland St. (225.0)BSkyH75-82L0%0.0
1-17Northern Colorado (245.0)BSkyH78-88L0%0.0
1-22Idaho (267.0)BSkyA63-71W100%0.0
1-24Eastern Washington (74.0)BSkyA102-80L0%0.0
1-29Weber St. (263.0)BSkyH60-67L0%0.0
1-31Idaho St. (343.0)BSkyH80-69W100%0.0
2-5Southern Utah (307.0)BSkyA85-89W100%0.0
2-7Northern Arizona (166.0)BSkyA88-63L0%0.0
2-12Montana (144.0)BSkyH61-65L0%0.0
2-14Montana St. (325.0)BSkyH78-80L0%0.0
2-19Portland St. (225.0)BSkyA80-70L0%0.0
2-21Sacramento St. (141.0)BSkyA74-66L0%0.0
2-26Northern Arizona (166.0)BSkyH75-85L0%0.0
2-28Southern Utah (307.0)BSkyH65-71L0%0.0
3-3Nebraska Omaha (300.0)SumH78-80L0%0.0
3-7Northern Colorado (245.0)BSkyA72-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Dakota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Dakota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Dakota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North DakotaBSky26.2926.2925.7125.71-12.77-12.77
Northern ColoradoBSky4.524.5242.3142.31-0.70-0.70
Northern ArizonaBSky4.514.5153.3353.330.300.30
Sacramento St.BSky4.474.4759.2659.260.830.83
MontanaBSky4.464.4657.1457.140.640.64
Portland St.BSky4.434.4344.0044.00-0.53-0.53
Southern UtahBSky4.384.3830.7730.77-1.68-1.68
Montana St.BSky4.344.3418.5218.52-2.74-2.74
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.812.8173.3373.331.311.31
IdahoBSky2.742.7440.7440.74-0.51-0.51
Weber St.BSky2.702.7037.0437.04-0.70-0.70
Idaho St.BSky2.672.6718.5218.52-1.68-1.68
South Dakota St.Sum2.092.0966.6766.670.700.70
North Dakota St.Sum2.062.0668.9768.970.780.78
Nebraska OmahaSum2.032.0337.0437.04-0.53-0.53
Texas Pan AmericanWAC1.881.8822.2222.22-1.04-1.04
UtahP121.881.8873.3373.330.880.88
Northern IowaMVC1.871.8790.6290.621.521.52
Alabama St.SWAC1.851.8565.3865.380.570.57
DrakeMVC1.841.8427.5927.59-0.82-0.82
MarquetteBE1.821.8238.7138.71-0.41-0.41
MinnesotaB101.791.7951.6151.610.060.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.440.4432.1432.14-0.16-0.16
South DakotaSum0.330.3348.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.270.2723.0823.08-0.15-0.15
SeattleWAC0.270.2748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.270.2740.0040.00-0.05-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.240.2453.3353.330.020.02
PortlandWCC0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.210.2132.2632.26-0.07-0.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.200.2056.6756.670.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.190.1936.6736.67-0.05-0.05
WyomingMWC0.190.1971.8871.880.080.08
UTSACUSA0.180.1842.8642.86-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.180.1846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.180.1848.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
BradleyMVC0.170.1725.0025.00-0.09-0.09
Grand CanyonWAC0.160.1651.7251.720.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
San FranciscoWCC0.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.140.1487.1087.100.110.11
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
OregonP120.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
USCP120.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.120.1281.2581.250.080.08
ColoradoP120.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
CaliforniaP120.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1134.3834.38-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
XavierBE0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1018.7518.75-0.06-0.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.06-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.100.1017.2417.24-0.06-0.06
Kansas St.B120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.100.1079.3179.310.060.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0964.7164.710.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
CreightonBE0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
DePaulBE0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Seton HallBE0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
St. John'sBE0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0894.1294.120.070.07
WisconsinB100.080.0891.1891.180.070.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.070.000.00-0.07-0.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0738.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.060.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.060.0693.9493.940.050.05
KentuckySEC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
UC IrvineBW0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
BYUWCC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Saint LouisA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
DavidsonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.060.0691.1891.180.050.05
StanfordP120.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
IndianaB100.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
ButlerBE0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0652.9452.940.000.00
MississippiSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0675.8675.860.030.03
Penn St.B100.060.0652.9452.940.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
PurdueB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
RutgersB100.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
SMUAmer0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
FurmanSC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
UMBCAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01