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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Louisiana Monroe

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:121.0
Current RPI:184
Expected SOS:204
Current SOS:232
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:16-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-3
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC RPI:73
Expected OOC SOS:109



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-327.50.08%
22-437.90.57%
21-546.51.59%
20-659.44.20%
19-772.29.18%
18-887.513.42%
17-9104.917.54%
16-10122.717.63%
15-11143.315.11%
14-12163.29.81%
13-13184.16.30%
12-14205.92.91%
11-15225.61.15%
10-16250.90.41%
9-17269.30.09%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Monroe.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15UAB (191.5)CUSAA65-74W100%0.0
11-21Florida (32.0)SECA61-56L0%0.0
11-26Coastal Carolina (149.0)BSthN0-052%0.5
12-9Northwestern St. (190.9)SlndH0-072%6.9
12-13New Mexico (112.4)MWCA0-027%-7.2
12-21Samford (323.1)SCA0-079%9.6
12-30Georgia St. (131.0)SBA0-038%-3.8
1-5Arkansas St. (250.7)SBH0-079%9.6
1-8UT Arlington (144.6)SBA0-044%-1.9
1-10Texas St. (198.2)SBA0-054%1.3
1-15Troy (243.2)SBH0-078%9.2
1-17Arkansas Little Rock (176.7)SBH0-071%6.5
1-19Louisiana Lafayette (203.1)SBA0-051%0.2
1-22UT Arlington (144.6)SBH0-067%5.3
1-24Georgia Southern (223.2)SBH0-077%8.7
1-29Troy (243.2)SBA0-057%2.0
1-31South Alabama (246.0)SBH0-080%10.1
2-5Arkansas Little Rock (176.7)SBA0-048%-0.6
2-7Georgia Southern (223.2)SBA0-055%1.6
2-12Louisiana Lafayette (203.1)SBH0-073%7.3
2-14Appalachian St. (313.9)SBH0-093%17.4
2-21Arkansas St. (250.7)SBA0-058%2.4
2-26South Alabama (246.0)SBA0-060%2.9
2-28Appalachian St. (313.9)SBA0-080%10.2
3-5Georgia St. (131.0)SBH0-061%3.4
3-7Texas St. (198.2)SBH0-076%8.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Monroe's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisiana Monroe's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisiana Monroe.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Louisiana MonroeSB35.4226.6070.0066.0014.178.51
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.005.130.0048.67-0.00-0.14
Georgia St.SB0.005.100.0058.13-0.000.83
South AlabamaSB0.005.100.0040.04-0.00-1.02
Appalachian St.SB0.005.1033.3322.34-0.00-2.82
UT ArlingtonSB0.005.1075.0057.980.000.81
Arkansas St.SB0.005.100.0043.29-0.00-0.68
Arkansas Little RockSB0.005.0950.0053.980.000.41
TroySB0.005.090.0046.18-0.00-0.39
Georgia SouthernSB0.005.080.0047.60-0.00-0.24
Texas St.SB0.005.0866.6750.020.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.001.990.0054.03-0.000.16
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.001.920.0064.19-0.000.55
FloridaSEC25.001.9250.0066.030.000.62
New MexicoMWC0.001.9275.0059.060.000.35
SamfordSC0.001.9225.0032.26-0.00-0.68
UABCUSA25.001.920.0044.78-25.00-0.20
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.360.0019.92-0.00-0.22
Southern MissCUSA0.000.2750.0053.430.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.2175.0071.100.000.09
Green BayHorz0.000.200.0067.49-0.000.07
LamarSlnd0.000.180.0034.03-0.00-0.06
MississippiSEC0.000.1866.6755.980.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.150.0032.69-0.00-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.150.0067.09-0.000.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.150.0044.91-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.150.0034.81-0.00-0.05
AuburnSEC0.000.1466.6740.400.00-0.03
FIUCUSA0.000.14100.0043.160.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.1466.6753.050.000.01
TexasB120.000.14100.0081.740.000.09
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1350.0045.600.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.1333.3325.18-0.00-0.07
JacksonvilleASun0.000.130.0025.03-0.00-0.07
KentuckySEC0.000.13100.0085.630.000.09
Colorado St.MWC0.000.13100.0062.400.000.03
IUPUISum0.000.1350.0031.810.00-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.000.130.0049.23-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1133.3345.63-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.110.0030.19-0.00-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.000.110.0024.77-0.00-0.06
South FloridaAmer6.250.11100.0046.046.25-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.1150.0037.430.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1133.3336.99-0.00-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.100.0025.73-0.00-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1066.6765.320.000.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.100.0031.23-0.00-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1066.6758.190.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.1066.6751.200.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.10100.0045.350.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.10100.0060.550.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.10100.0070.030.000.04
ChattanoogaSC0.000.100.0046.61-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.1075.0060.550.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.10100.0058.780.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1050.0049.760.00-0.00
Miami FLACC4.170.10100.0073.534.170.05
Old DominionCUSA0.000.10100.0080.090.000.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0850.0054.970.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0866.6768.980.000.03
High PointBSth0.000.0875.0055.790.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0833.3335.41-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0833.3322.74-0.00-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.000.080.0033.75-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.080.0034.07-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.07100.0067.100.000.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.070.0039.15-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0733.3349.04-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.070.0032.07-0.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.07100.0046.730.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.07100.0073.660.000.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.070.0031.92-0.00-0.03
BYUWCC0.000.07100.0070.030.000.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.07100.0070.980.000.03
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0750.0051.860.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0733.3349.42-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0733.3355.40-0.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0733.3324.07-0.00-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0750.0033.700.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0733.3364.19-0.000.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.070.0034.98-0.00-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0750.0045.890.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0775.0063.040.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.070.0027.82-0.00-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0766.6760.610.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0733.3354.50-0.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0750.0052.290.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.070.0033.08-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.07100.0053.080.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0725.0051.56-0.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0766.6762.810.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.070.0035.51-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0750.0052.260.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.070.0023.51-0.00-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0725.0066.02-0.000.02
NJITind0.000.0725.0025.21-0.00-0.03
OhioMAC0.000.0750.0056.270.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.07100.0050.830.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0766.6767.450.000.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.07100.0080.630.000.04
The CitadelSC0.000.070.0028.08-0.00-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.000.0750.0063.070.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.070.0032.70-0.00-0.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0775.0053.210.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0775.0057.480.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.07100.0047.840.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0766.6733.180.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.0733.3339.27-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0750.0041.630.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.070.0048.20-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.000.0775.0075.140.000.03
WyomingMWC0.000.07100.0070.850.000.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0025.43-0.00-0.03
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0061.830.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0032.48-0.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.040.0028.76-0.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.04100.0052.260.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0450.0058.120.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0433.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0466.6767.990.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.040.0050.76-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0466.6746.900.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.04100.0062.510.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0450.0060.360.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0052.920.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0325.0059.16-0.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0073.290.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0045.790.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3327.11-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0069.180.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0333.3341.77-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0084.890.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0041.480.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0333.3335.92-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0350.0044.170.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0076.190.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0333.3346.79-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0325.0019.94-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0062.070.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.030.0028.34-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0350.0061.790.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0320.0026.89-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6749.590.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0333.3346.76-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6750.790.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.0017.53-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0350.0054.290.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0042.680.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0037.22-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0350.0027.780.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0366.6754.020.000.00
William & MaryCAA4.170.0366.6744.971.39-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.0366.6762.540.000.01