Louisiana Monroe

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	317.0
Current RPI:	317
Expected SOS:	197
Current SOS:	197
Current Record:	3-25
Expected Record:	3-25
Current Conf Record:	2-14
Expected Conf Record:	2-14
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	2-7
Current OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC RPI:	317
Expected OOC SOS:	208

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
3-25	317.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Monroe.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Mississippi (61.0)	SEC	A	60-38	L	0%
11-14	Indiana St. (129.0)	MVC	H	59-71	L	0%
11-16	Tennessee (86.0)	SEC	A	85-62	L	0%
11-19	Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)	Slnd	A	63-60	L	0%
11-21	Mississippi St. (75.0)	SEC	A	78-63	L	0%
11-28	Nicholls St. (298.0)	Slnd	A	65-86	W	100%
12-3	Louisiana Tech (160.0)	WAC	H	71-73	L	0%
12-10	Texas A&M (165.0)	B12	A	67-54	L	0%
12-12	Nicholls St. (298.0)	Slnd	H	70-82	L	0%
12-15	Northwestern St. (217.0)	Slnd	H	63-76	L	0%
12-19	Nevada Las Vegas (21.0)	MWC	A	81-63	L	0%
12-21	Indiana St. (129.0)	MVC	A	50-35	L	0%
12-29	Western Kentucky (189.0)	SB	H	71-76	L	0%
12-31	Arkansas St. (222.0)	SB	H	63-65	L	0%
1-5	Florida Atlantic (207.0)	SB	A	58-30	L	0%
1-7	Florida International (251.0)	SB	A	50-54	W	100%
1-12	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	H	51-72	L	0%
1-14	North Texas (200.0)	SB	H	55-68	L	0%
1-19	Denver (94.0)	SB	H	48-63	L	0%
1-21	Troy (260.0)	SB	A	91-63	L	0%
1-28	Louisiana Lafayette (185.0)	SB	H	60-67	L	0%
2-2	Arkansas St. (222.0)	SB	A	72-64	L	0%
2-4	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	A	70-66	L	0%
2-11	South Alabama (169.0)	SB	H	86-88	L	0%
2-16	North Texas (200.0)	SB	A	86-51	L	0%
2-18	Denver (94.0)	SB	A	76-57	L	0%
2-23	Middle Tennessee (56.0)	SB	H	61-94	L	0%
2-25	Louisiana Lafayette (185.0)	SB	A	60-78	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Monroe's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Louisiana Monroe's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Louisiana Monroe.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Louisiana Monroe	SB	26.25	26.25	14.58	14.58	-18.59	-18.59
North Texas	SB	4.39	4.39	48.15	48.15	-0.16	-0.16
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	4.37	4.37	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	4.35	4.35	35.48	35.48	-1.26	-1.26
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	4.34	4.34	42.86	42.86	-0.62	-0.62
Denver	SB	4.28	4.28	68.97	68.97	1.63	1.63
Nicholls St.	Slnd	3.76	3.76	26.92	26.92	-1.74	-1.74
Indiana St.	MVC	3.57	3.57	51.72	51.72	0.12	0.12
Western Kentucky	SB	2.64	2.64	43.75	43.75	-0.33	-0.33
South Alabama	SB	2.50	2.50	55.56	55.56	0.28	0.28
Middle Tennessee	SB	2.47	2.47	79.31	79.31	1.45	1.45
Florida Atlantic	SB	2.47	2.47	32.14	32.14	-0.88	-0.88
Troy	SB	2.44	2.44	30.77	30.77	-0.94	-0.94
Florida International	SB	2.41	2.41	29.63	29.63	-0.98	-0.98
Northwestern St.	Slnd	2.16	2.16	42.86	42.86	-0.31	-0.31
Mississippi St.	SEC	2.09	2.09	64.52	64.52	0.61	0.61
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	2.03	2.03	32.00	32.00	-0.73	-0.73
Mississippi	SEC	1.99	1.99	59.38	59.38	0.37	0.37
Louisiana Tech	WAC	1.91	1.91	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
Tennessee	SEC	1.87	1.87	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
Texas A&M	B12	1.81	1.81	40.00	40.00	-0.36	-0.36
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	1.79	1.79	74.19	74.19	0.86	0.86
Lamar	Slnd	0.40	0.40	65.62	65.62	0.13	0.13
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.37	0.37	23.08	23.08	-0.20	-0.20
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.35	0.35	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.32	0.32	56.25	56.25	0.04	0.04
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.28	0.28	74.19	74.19	0.14	0.14
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.25	0.25	20.00	20.00	-0.15	-0.15
Texas Tech	B12	0.24	0.24	25.81	25.81	-0.12	-0.12
Auburn	SEC	0.23	0.23	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.23	0.23	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.23	0.23	70.59	70.59	0.09	0.09
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.22	0.22	32.14	32.14	-0.08	-0.08
Arkansas	SEC	0.20	0.20	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Wichita St.	MVC	0.20	0.20	83.87	83.87	0.14	0.14
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.20	0.20	26.67	26.67	-0.09	-0.09
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.19	0.19	57.14	57.14	0.03	0.03
Texas	B12	0.18	0.18	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Illinois St.	MVC	0.17	0.17	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Kentucky	SEC	0.17	0.17	94.12	94.12	0.15	0.15
Boise St.	MWC	0.17	0.17	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.17	0.17	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.17	0.17	62.07	62.07	0.04	0.04
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.16	0.16	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.15	0.15	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.15	0.15	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.15	0.15	6.90	6.90	-0.13	-0.13
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.14	0.14	74.19	74.19	0.07	0.07
Austin Peay	OVC	0.14	0.14	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Drake	MVC	0.14	0.14	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.14	0.14	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Georgia	SEC	0.14	0.14	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Texas St.	Slnd	0.13	0.13	34.62	34.62	-0.04	-0.04
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.12	0.12	67.86	67.86	0.04	0.04
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.12	0.12	25.93	25.93	-0.06	-0.06
Tulsa	CUSA	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.12	0.12	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Oklahoma	B12	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.12	0.12	21.88	21.88	-0.06	-0.06
Creighton	MVC	0.12	0.12	84.85	84.85	0.08	0.08
Evansville	MVC	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Nevada	WAC	0.11	0.11	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
Seattle	ind	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	ASun	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
North Carolina	ACC	0.09	0.09	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.09	0.09	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.09	0.09	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.09	0.09	14.29	14.29	-0.06	-0.06
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	B12	0.09	0.09	88.24	88.24	0.07	0.07
The Citadel	SC	0.09	0.09	14.29	14.29	-0.06	-0.06
Baylor	B12	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
California	P12	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Portland St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Hawaii	WAC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.08	0.08	81.25	81.25	0.05	0.05
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Texas Christian	MWC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.08	0.08	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Murray St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	96.43	96.43	0.08	0.08
Southern Utah	Sum	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	11.11	11.11	-0.05	-0.05
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	Horz	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.06	0.06	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	83.33	83.33	0.04	0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho	WAC	0.06	0.06	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.04	0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	19.23	19.23	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	86.21	86.21	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	18.75	18.75	-0.02	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	64.29	64.29	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01