Louisiana Monroe

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	305.0
Current RPI:	305
Expected SOS:	133
Current SOS:	133
Current Record:	4-23
Expected Record:	4-23
Current Conf Record:	3-18
Expected Conf Record:	3-18
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-13
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-5
Current OOC Record:	1-5
Expected OOC Record:	1-5
Expected OOC RPI:	254
Expected OOC SOS:	32

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
4-23	305.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Monroe.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Oklahoma (39.0)	B12	A	85-51	L	0%
11-24	Louisiana Tech (53.0)	WAC	A	68-52	L	0%
11-29	Western Kentucky (150.0)	SB	H	54-65	L	0%
12-1	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	A	83-58	L	0%
12-10	Southeastern Louisiana (227.0)	Slnd	H	68-61	W	100%
12-13	Southern (180.0)	SWAC	H	39-68	L	0%
12-17	Florida St. (85.0)	ACC	A	63-48	L	0%
12-20	UAB (144.0)	CUSA	A	76-69	L	0%
12-29	Florida Atlantic (218.0)	SB	H	65-64	W	100%
1-3	South Alabama (154.0)	SB	H	72-77	L	0%
1-5	North Texas (247.0)	SB	A	68-81	W	100%
1-10	Troy (279.0)	SB	A	64-55	L	0%
1-12	Middle Tennessee (28.0)	SB	H	57-66	L	0%
1-17	South Alabama (154.0)	SB	A	71-56	L	0%
1-19	Arkansas St. (163.0)	SB	A	63-39	L	0%
1-26	Troy (279.0)	SB	H	64-71	L	0%
1-31	Florida Atlantic (218.0)	SB	A	76-71	L	0%
2-2	Florida International (111.0)	SB	A	76-73	L	0%
2-7	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	H	60-70	L	0%
2-10	Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)	SB	A	90-66	L	0%
2-14	North Texas (247.0)	SB	H	85-73	W	100%
2-16	Arkansas St. (163.0)	SB	H	54-87	L	0%
2-21	Western Kentucky (150.0)	SB	A	75-57	L	0%
2-23	Middle Tennessee (28.0)	SB	A	87-46	L	0%
2-28	Florida International (111.0)	SB	H	58-67	L	0%
3-2	Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)	SB	H	63-71	L	0%
3-8	Western Kentucky (150.0)	SB	N	74-60	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Monroe's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Louisiana Monroe's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Louisiana Monroe.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Louisiana Monroe	SB	26.50	26.50	13.01	13.01	-19.61	-19.61
Western Kentucky	SB	6.82	6.82	51.61	51.61	0.22	0.22
Florida International	SB	5.02	5.02	53.33	53.33	0.33	0.33
Troy	SB	5.01	5.01	32.26	32.26	-1.78	-1.78
Middle Tennessee	SB	4.97	4.97	83.87	83.87	3.37	3.37
Arkansas St.	SB	4.96	4.96	57.14	57.14	0.71	0.71
South Alabama	SB	4.95	4.95	53.85	53.85	0.38	0.38
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	4.94	4.94	33.33	33.33	-1.65	-1.65
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	4.94	4.94	48.28	48.28	-0.17	-0.17
North Texas	SB	4.91	4.91	39.29	39.29	-1.05	-1.05
Florida Atlantic	SB	4.88	4.88	41.38	41.38	-0.84	-0.84
Louisiana Tech	WAC	2.06	2.06	80.00	80.00	1.24	1.24
UAB	CUSA	2.03	2.03	45.16	45.16	-0.20	-0.20
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	1.94	1.94	39.29	39.29	-0.42	-0.42
Florida St.	ACC	1.92	1.92	53.12	53.12	0.12	0.12
Oklahoma	B12	1.85	1.85	63.33	63.33	0.49	0.49
Southern	SWAC	1.85	1.85	67.86	67.86	0.66	0.66
Lamar	Slnd	0.25	0.25	9.68	9.68	-0.20	-0.20
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.24	0.24	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.23	0.23	29.03	29.03	-0.10	-0.10
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.22	0.22	69.70	69.70	0.08	0.08
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.20	0.20	71.88	71.88	0.09	0.09
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.18	0.18	85.19	85.19	0.13	0.13
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.18	0.18	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.18	0.18	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.17	0.17	69.70	69.70	0.07	0.07
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.16	0.16	17.86	17.86	-0.10	-0.10
Georgia St.	CAA	0.15	0.15	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Dayton	A10	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.15	0.15	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.14	0.14	20.69	20.69	-0.08	-0.08
IUPUI	Sum	0.14	0.14	13.33	13.33	-0.11	-0.11
Murray St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	65.52	65.52	0.04	0.04
Louisville	BE	0.14	0.14	85.29	85.29	0.10	0.10
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.13	0.13	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	70.37	70.37	0.05	0.05
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.12	0.12	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Texas Christian	B12	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Mississippi	SEC	0.12	0.12	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.12	0.12	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Central Florida	CUSA	0.11	0.11	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.11	0.11	35.71	35.71	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.09	0.09	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.08	0.08	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Western Carolina	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.06	-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Denver	WAC	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Elon	SC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Idaho	WAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.06	0.06	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	93.75	93.75	0.03	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01