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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Louisiana Monroe

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:173.5
Current RPI:181
Expected SOS:154
Current SOS:156
Current Record:9-12
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:7-5
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-6
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:218
Expected OOC SOS:89



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-12108.20.26%
16-13126.24.03%
15-14145.016.15%
14-15163.428.70%
13-16181.128.27%
12-17200.016.20%
11-18219.25.53%
10-19239.50.76%
9-20257.00.09%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Monroe.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Minnesota (245.7)B10A67-56L0%0.0
11-19Northwestern St. (332.6)SlndA64-80W100%0.0
11-28Houston (102.6)AmerA76-64L0%0.0
11-30Chattanooga (41.0)SCH64-54W100%0.0
12-3Louisiana Lafayette (107.7)SBH81-70W100%0.0
12-10Kent St. (107.4)MACA73-62L0%0.0
12-12Penn St. (130.3)B10A54-50L0%0.0
12-13West Virginia (10.0)B12A100-58L0%0.0
12-22Canisius (216.0)MAACN108-96L0%0.0
12-23Hampton (192.7)MEACN64-75L0%0.0
12-31Appalachian St. (260.2)SBH72-56W100%0.0
1-7Arkansas St. (239.8)SBA68-65L0%0.0
1-9Arkansas Little Rock (49.6)SBA58-57L0%0.0
1-14Georgia St. (146.4)SBA65-51L0%0.0
1-16Georgia Southern (250.5)SBA66-51L0%0.0
1-21Troy (291.6)SBH85-74W100%0.0
1-23South Alabama (255.9)SBH100-68W100%0.0
1-28UT Arlington (98.6)SBH99-88W100%0.0
1-30Texas St. (283.3)SBH72-59W100%0.0
2-2Louisiana Lafayette (107.7)SBA72-65L0%0.0
2-6Appalachian St. (260.2)SBA90-91W100%0.0
2-11Arkansas Little Rock (49.6)SBH0-030%-5.8
2-13Arkansas St. (239.8)SBH0-076%7.7
2-18Texas St. (283.3)SBA0-057%1.8
2-20UT Arlington (98.6)SBA0-016%-10.8
2-25South Alabama (255.9)SBA0-062%3.3
2-27Troy (291.6)SBA0-061%3.0
3-3Georgia Southern (250.5)SBH0-079%8.9
3-5Georgia St. (146.4)SBH0-064%3.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Monroe's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisiana Monroe's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisiana Monroe.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Louisiana MonroeSB26.4026.4846.6749.74-1.76-0.14
Appalachian St.SB5.534.5828.5731.18-2.37-1.72
UT ArlingtonSB3.144.5471.4373.421.352.13
Arkansas Little RockSB3.134.5490.0087.042.513.36
Arkansas St.SB3.134.5440.0037.53-0.63-1.13
South AlabamaSB3.134.5435.0035.34-0.94-1.33
TroySB3.134.5425.0027.25-1.57-2.06
Georgia SouthernSB3.134.5336.8437.34-0.82-1.15
Georgia St.SB3.134.5355.5655.120.350.46
Louisiana LafayetteSB5.434.5358.8262.680.961.15
Texas St.SB3.144.5338.8938.84-0.70-1.01
Penn St.B102.531.8147.8344.97-0.11-0.18
CanisiusMAAC2.481.7841.6743.49-0.41-0.23
HamptonMEAC2.481.7857.1459.830.350.35
Kent St.MAC2.481.7863.6459.230.680.33
MinnesotaB102.431.7522.7325.30-1.33-0.87
ChattanoogaSC2.381.7290.9189.871.951.37
HoustonAmer2.381.7268.1865.420.870.53
Northwestern St.Slnd2.381.7218.7527.73-1.49-0.77
West VirginiaB122.381.7278.2677.361.350.94
Central ArkansasSlnd0.240.2525.0030.01-0.12-0.10
MississippiSEC0.250.2262.5058.930.060.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.260.2017.6529.05-0.17-0.08
Southern MissCUSA0.180.1831.5832.01-0.06-0.07
SamfordSC0.170.1841.6742.60-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.210.1766.6762.200.070.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.220.1618.1821.15-0.14-0.09
Savannah St.MEAC0.170.1538.1037.68-0.04-0.04
BaylorB120.180.1572.7366.400.080.05
Texas TechB120.160.1459.0953.180.030.01
New OrleansSlnd0.130.1427.7834.43-0.06-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.170.1372.2275.580.080.07
IUPUISum0.120.1240.0039.81-0.02-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1271.4369.410.050.05
UABCUSA0.120.1282.6179.370.080.07
The CitadelSC0.160.1231.8230.06-0.06-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.180.1271.4368.760.080.05
UTEPCUSA0.120.1252.1751.920.010.00
IdahoBSky0.110.1254.5554.950.010.01
SMUAmer0.210.1290.9186.110.170.09
FurmanSC0.210.1254.1754.060.020.01
MercerSC0.210.1269.5769.020.080.04
North TexasCUSA0.110.1233.3333.04-0.04-0.04
RiceCUSA0.110.1228.5729.66-0.05-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.160.1220.0019.68-0.10-0.07
TulsaAmer0.160.1265.2261.470.050.03
IllinoisB100.100.1245.8344.13-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.160.1160.0055.500.030.01
MichiganB100.150.1169.5766.220.060.04
NorthwesternB100.150.1164.0062.060.040.03
TulaneAmer0.160.1133.3332.36-0.05-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.1076.1972.280.070.04
AuburnSEC0.130.1039.1335.43-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.110.0965.0063.410.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.099.0917.13-0.09-0.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.110.0914.2915.46-0.08-0.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.0910.0013.14-0.09-0.07
StetsonASun0.110.0923.8127.67-0.06-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.110.0943.4841.96-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.110.0965.2260.260.030.02
DePaulBE0.110.0933.3334.01-0.04-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.110.0972.7372.110.050.04
Iowa St.B120.100.0973.9170.050.050.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0960.8760.820.010.02
TempleAmer0.100.0963.6459.810.030.02
BuffaloMAC0.100.0956.5256.990.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.0940.0043.44-0.02-0.01
IndianaB100.150.0979.1774.040.090.04
RutgersB100.000.0921.7420.37-0.00-0.05
IowaB100.050.0882.6180.550.030.05
MaristMAAC0.100.0821.7424.19-0.06-0.04
Michigan St.B100.100.0880.0081.600.060.05
NebraskaB100.050.0854.1751.880.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.100.0845.8342.26-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.150.0865.2264.220.050.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0714.2924.89-0.05-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.130.0659.0953.250.020.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.069.0912.24-0.00-0.05
HowardMEAC0.050.0636.3638.92-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.130.0682.6177.520.080.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0619.0525.89-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0643.4850.65-0.010.00
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0656.5262.790.010.02
PepperdineWCC0.130.0656.5257.280.020.01
UCLAP120.130.0656.5253.270.020.00
UTSACUSA0.060.0613.6413.63-0.05-0.05
Washington St.P120.060.0636.3631.98-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.5257.010.010.01
DukeACC0.060.0675.0071.800.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0659.0959.420.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0627.2731.05-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0622.7323.24-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.100.0643.4846.22-0.01-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0628.5731.30-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.0625.0025.08-0.05-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.0682.6181.120.070.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.0629.1733.12-0.04-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.0625.0033.22-0.05-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.0631.8236.14-0.04-0.02
ColoradoP120.100.0669.5765.330.040.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0637.5040.54-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0666.6766.540.020.02
DenverSum0.060.0654.1751.790.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0650.0054.200.000.00
MissouriSEC0.060.0634.7830.33-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0650.0049.090.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0663.6462.150.020.01
OregonP120.060.0682.6179.220.040.03
Seton HallBE0.060.0673.9169.970.030.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0617.3920.65-0.04-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0647.8350.19-0.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.0621.7423.40-0.06-0.03
RadfordBSth0.100.0650.0051.300.000.00
VMISC0.050.0615.0016.72-0.03-0.04
AkronMAC0.000.0682.6181.140.000.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0650.0045.840.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0612.5012.90-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0672.0071.540.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0673.9172.480.020.03
FordhamA100.050.0655.0052.190.010.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0615.0018.09-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.050.0634.7833.09-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.100.0663.6461.420.030.01
UCFAmer0.000.0650.0044.860.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0631.8232.69-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.050.0687.5083.700.040.04
PurdueB100.100.0680.0077.930.060.03
WisconsinB100.050.0660.8755.830.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.100.0634.7840.91-0.03-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0654.1754.140.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0660.8760.720.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.100.0650.0049.830.00-0.00
KansasB120.100.0682.6179.190.060.03
Kansas St.B120.100.0660.8758.300.020.01
LibertyBSth0.100.0634.7836.50-0.03-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.100.0642.8642.05-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.100.0680.0081.160.060.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0624.0024.55-0.02-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.100.0683.3378.390.070.03
OklahomaB120.050.0686.9682.650.040.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.0636.3636.15-0.03-0.02
RiderMAAC0.100.0640.0042.11-0.02-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0640.9143.29-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0664.0064.140.010.02
TCUB120.050.0645.8339.34-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0435.0034.80-0.02-0.01
ArizonaP120.070.0479.1778.350.040.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0450.0053.100.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0450.0049.790.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0452.9452.080.000.00
LamarSlnd0.070.0430.0029.27-0.03-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0445.0049.25-0.01-0.00
AmericanPat0.050.0330.4331.91-0.02-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.67-0.04-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0329.1733.74-0.02-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0372.2274.700.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0352.1754.170.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0371.4369.830.020.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0328.5733.36-0.02-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0386.9682.300.040.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0359.0955.300.010.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0325.0024.33-0.03-0.02
LipscombASun0.050.0325.0029.30-0.03-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0368.1866.650.020.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0360.8757.190.010.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0347.6249.35-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.357.72-0.05-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0358.3358.310.010.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0321.7422.74-0.03-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0340.9143.54-0.01-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0359.0959.630.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0339.1337.81-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0345.4549.67-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0356.5256.320.010.00
NJITASun0.050.0354.1755.280.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0360.0057.610.010.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0372.7367.630.020.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0358.3357.170.010.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0341.6741.23-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0377.2776.870.030.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0372.0070.540.020.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0350.0049.460.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0360.8762.040.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0328.5732.73-0.02-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0343.4842.49-0.01-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0330.4332.36-0.02-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0329.1726.74-0.02-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0354.1755.600.000.00
BucknellPat0.050.0354.5558.160.000.00
CornellIvy0.050.0342.1140.21-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0331.5831.75-0.02-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0313.6418.15-0.04-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0360.8756.430.010.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0352.0050.250.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0366.6766.320.020.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0378.2674.410.030.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0370.8369.490.020.01
LehighPat0.050.0336.3639.78-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.210.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0333.3335.06-0.02-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0354.5554.470.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0371.4368.940.020.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0383.3378.470.030.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0352.0048.860.00-0.00