live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Louisiana Monroe

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:264.0
Current RPI:329
Expected SOS:149
Current SOS:274
Current Record:1-5
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-6
Current OOC Record:1-5
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:280
Expected OOC SOS:248



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13137.00.01%
15-14145.30.25%
14-15164.50.65%
13-16181.52.26%
12-17202.45.02%
11-18222.99.99%
10-19242.514.90%
9-20261.018.98%
8-21278.519.05%
7-22293.214.62%
6-23306.08.58%
5-24316.83.94%
4-25324.51.32%
3-26331.50.40%
2-27340.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Monroe.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Texas (118.9)B12A80-59L0%0.0
11-17Colorado (74.9)P12A89-70L0%0.0
11-21Seattle (263.8)WACN81-75L0%0.0
11-22Bryant (215.8)NECN64-57L0%0.0
11-28Stephen F. Austin (172.7)SlndH77-72W100%0.0
12-3Chattanooga (86.7)SCA79-52L0%0.0
12-10Jacksonville St. (187.0)OVCH0-048%-0.7
12-17Northwestern St. (259.9)SlndA0-040%-3.0
12-20Coppin St. (343.7)MEACA0-077%9.0
12-22VCU (41.9)A10A0-04%-20.9
12-28Grambling St. (339.2)SWACH0-086%13.2
12-31Little Rock (151.3)SBA0-017%-11.4
1-2Arkansas St. (76.0)SBA0-012%-14.0
1-7Louisiana Lafayette (101.3)SBA0-013%-13.7
1-14Georgia St. (105.9)SBH0-027%-7.3
1-16Georgia Southern (189.8)SBH0-044%-1.9
1-21UT Arlington (67.2)SBA0-09%-15.9
1-23Texas St. (265.1)SBA0-033%-5.4
1-28Arkansas St. (76.0)SBH0-026%-7.7
1-30Little Rock (151.3)SBH0-033%-5.1
2-4Georgia Southern (189.8)SBA0-025%-8.2
2-6Georgia St. (105.9)SBA0-013%-13.5
2-11South Alabama (143.9)SBH0-036%-4.2
2-13Troy (247.7)SBH0-057%2.0
2-18Louisiana Lafayette (101.3)SBH0-027%-7.4
2-25Appalachian St. (269.1)SBA0-037%-4.0
2-27Coastal Carolina (222.6)SBA0-026%-7.8
3-2UT Arlington (67.2)SBH0-021%-9.6
3-4Texas St. (265.1)SBH0-053%0.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Monroe's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisiana Monroe's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisiana Monroe.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Louisiana MonroeSB28.9726.2913.6429.61-21.07-10.72
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.004.2971.4362.730.001.09
Arkansas St.SB0.604.2075.0065.330.301.29
UT ArlingtonSB0.604.2062.5066.100.151.35
Georgia SouthernSB0.004.1742.8641.95-0.00-0.67
Little RockSB0.004.1766.6760.340.000.86
Georgia St.SB0.004.1750.0059.140.000.76
Texas St.SB0.004.1750.0042.330.00-0.64
Coastal CarolinaSB0.602.6925.0037.56-0.30-0.67
South AlabamaSB0.002.6271.4357.770.000.41
TroySB0.002.6242.8635.93-0.00-0.74
Appalachian St.SB0.002.6216.6728.52-0.00-1.13
ChattanoogaSC8.331.8466.6772.042.780.81
TexasB128.851.8150.0036.630.00-0.48
Northwestern St.Slnd0.001.7920.0041.17-0.00-0.32
Stephen F. AustinSlnd8.331.7933.3357.63-2.780.27
ColoradoP129.621.7971.4361.334.120.40
Jacksonville St.OVC0.001.7550.0046.190.00-0.13
Coppin St.MEAC0.001.750.0016.93-0.00-1.16
SeattleWAC8.851.750.0037.07-8.85-0.45
BryantNEC8.331.7214.2946.02-5.95-0.14
Grambling St.SWAC0.001.7225.0032.07-0.00-0.62
VCUA100.001.7275.0072.300.000.77
Central ArkansasSlnd0.600.3512.5030.39-0.45-0.14
MinnesotaB100.000.2487.5068.020.000.09
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.220.0017.61-0.00-0.15
TulsaAmer0.000.1950.0038.050.00-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1850.0066.300.000.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1857.1471.940.000.08
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1775.0061.490.000.04
New OrleansSlnd0.000.1640.0041.93-0.00-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.1642.8637.34-0.00-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1622.2221.23-0.00-0.09
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.150.0023.69-0.00-0.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.150.0013.46-0.00-0.11
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.500.1571.4355.161.070.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1550.0041.990.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1511.1148.19-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.14100.0061.680.000.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.600.1325.0043.41-0.30-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1214.2931.28-0.00-0.05
ArkansasSEC1.040.1285.7166.190.740.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1212.5033.65-0.00-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1250.0050.840.000.00
MercerSC0.000.1242.8647.76-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.1262.5056.520.000.02
WoffordSC0.520.120.0034.81-0.52-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.120.0018.64-0.00-0.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1287.5076.230.000.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1257.1450.080.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.1242.8633.23-0.00-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.600.1257.1451.790.090.00
LamarSlnd0.000.1050.0041.540.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1050.0058.040.000.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1042.8650.12-0.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1075.0048.030.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1042.8658.58-0.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0025.23-0.00-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0928.5723.12-0.00-0.05
UABCUSA0.000.0950.0059.920.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0914.2942.67-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0912.5030.68-0.00-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0975.0051.040.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0985.7157.450.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0950.0050.450.000.00
Notre DameACC1.740.09100.0077.381.740.05
WashingtonP120.000.0957.1452.370.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0950.0071.020.000.04
OklahomaB120.000.0971.4348.350.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0971.4358.600.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0971.4368.050.000.03
AkronMAC0.000.0971.4368.980.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0912.5037.99-0.00-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0914.2936.02-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0022.58-0.00-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0912.5023.75-0.00-0.05
BYUWCC0.000.0962.5066.900.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.0971.4363.170.000.02
FordhamA100.000.0950.0041.310.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0957.1452.030.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0916.6744.34-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0971.4370.390.000.04
GeorgetownBE0.000.0955.5647.890.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0975.0054.670.000.01
UtahP120.000.0975.0059.790.000.02
BaylorB120.000.08100.0076.590.000.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0740.0054.54-0.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.070.0039.53-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0775.0071.470.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0742.8660.54-0.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0720.0022.75-0.00-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0775.0070.180.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0762.5052.330.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0766.6757.300.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0024.64-0.00-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.600.0640.0041.12-0.12-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0034.27-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3379.850.000.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0616.6730.34-0.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3356.24-0.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0614.2943.58-0.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0650.0049.780.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0675.0075.340.000.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.0640.0058.82-0.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0650.0030.350.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0612.5023.93-0.00-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0671.4356.260.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0625.0029.54-0.00-0.03
VMISC0.000.060.0016.78-0.00-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.000.0662.5051.790.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0020.75-0.00-0.04
BelmontOVC0.000.0650.0064.350.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0614.2932.19-0.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0642.8627.96-0.00-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0671.4356.250.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0687.5075.240.000.03
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0052.760.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3346.38-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0650.0062.380.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0616.6738.58-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0614.2938.26-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0657.1471.520.000.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0633.3330.44-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0022.31-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0628.5734.28-0.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0089.330.000.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.12-0.00-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0685.7170.060.000.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0625.0027.53-0.00-0.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0071.070.000.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0657.1454.360.000.01
USCP120.000.06100.0076.680.000.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0657.1467.260.000.02
ArmyPat0.000.0642.8650.09-0.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0685.7162.220.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0633.3332.92-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0628.5731.44-0.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0616.6739.78-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.0642.8666.67-0.000.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0671.4355.820.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1458.940.000.01
OregonP120.000.0675.0072.250.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0625.0022.93-0.00-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0622.2241.71-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0637.5033.74-0.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0614.2926.74-0.00-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0633.3339.94-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0666.6758.060.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0633.3354.47-0.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0642.8628.98-0.00-0.02
NorthwesternB101.120.0675.0066.170.560.02
DaytonA100.000.0671.4373.490.000.03
George MasonA100.000.0662.5046.900.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0655.5641.690.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0671.4368.070.000.02
KansasB120.000.0687.5075.860.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0687.5059.310.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0671.4354.310.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0650.0048.210.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.0687.5062.040.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0685.7183.660.000.04
KentuckySEC1.040.0387.5082.800.780.02
LongwoodBSth1.040.0320.0021.80-0.62-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0357.1442.530.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.180.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0320.0035.47-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0350.0045.970.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0033.85-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.690.0385.7176.240.500.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0371.4351.460.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0388.8978.400.000.02
HartfordAE0.000.0322.2226.33-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0377.7849.900.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.600.0325.0030.23-0.30-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0371.4354.860.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0342.8630.92-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.600.0387.5081.960.450.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0375.0056.590.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0350.0046.240.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.0387.5078.510.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0333.3336.74-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0342.8647.11-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0333.3352.21-0.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0328.5733.77-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0371.4354.860.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6761.550.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5729.95-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0342.8645.01-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0362.5043.220.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.280.000.01
MarylandB100.000.0387.5059.330.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.47-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0048.500.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0360.0058.590.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0061.240.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0035.95-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0385.7153.560.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0357.1433.230.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0342.8638.63-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0325.0020.78-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.24-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5043.800.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0344.4441.30-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7174.990.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0375.0054.490.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0337.5035.09-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0366.6754.050.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0342.8638.17-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1448.500.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.0375.0068.370.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0362.5040.460.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.520.0355.5646.970.06-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.520.0371.4360.540.220.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0020.55-0.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.520.03100.0091.920.520.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0320.0046.79-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.000.0325.0037.38-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0357.1458.840.000.01
OhioMAC0.520.0383.3371.480.350.01
PortlandWCC0.520.0350.0054.070.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.520.030.0022.01-0.52-0.02
UCLAP120.000.03100.0086.690.000.02
XavierBE0.000.0387.5070.890.000.01
YaleIvy0.520.0342.8663.41-0.070.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0350.0043.560.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.0344.4442.03-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.010.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0362.5050.710.000.00
La SalleA100.000.0366.6755.540.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0333.3348.07-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0038.27-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.170.00-0.00
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.460.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.27-0.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5069.130.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0328.5723.78-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0337.5037.03-0.00-0.01