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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Louisiana Monroe

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:298.0
Current RPI:298
Expected SOS:162
Current SOS:162
Current Record:7-24
Expected Record:7-24
Current Conf Record:3-17
Expected Conf Record:3-17
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-15
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-5
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:276
Expected OOC SOS:280



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-24298.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Monroe.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Texas (156.0)B12A80-59L0%0.0
11-17Colorado (99.0)P12A89-70L0%0.0
11-21Seattle (287.0)WACN81-75L0%0.0
11-22Bryant (285.0)NECN64-57L0%0.0
11-28Stephen F. Austin (202.0)SlndH77-72W100%0.0
12-3Chattanooga (139.0)SCA79-52L0%0.0
12-10Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCH88-83W100%0.0
12-17Northwestern St. (306.0)SlndN68-64L0%0.0
12-20Coppin St. (336.0)MEACA53-65W100%0.0
12-22VCU (22.0)A10A78-65L0%0.0
12-28Grambling St. (317.0)SWACH81-45W100%0.0
12-31Little Rock (243.0)SBA79-75L0%0.0
1-2Arkansas St. (119.0)SBA76-45L0%0.0
1-7Louisiana Lafayette (114.0)SBA69-60L0%0.0
1-14Georgia St. (104.0)SBH65-73L0%0.0
1-16Georgia Southern (121.0)SBH60-62L0%0.0
1-21UT Arlington (45.0)SBA71-55L0%0.0
1-23Texas St. (179.0)SBA63-57L0%0.0
1-28Arkansas St. (119.0)SBH63-73L0%0.0
1-30Little Rock (243.0)SBH68-52W100%0.0
2-4Georgia Southern (121.0)SBA76-62L0%0.0
2-6Georgia St. (104.0)SBA69-55L0%0.0
2-11South Alabama (231.0)SBH63-66L0%0.0
2-13Troy (147.0)SBH72-73L0%0.0
2-18Louisiana Lafayette (114.0)SBH84-85L0%0.0
2-25Appalachian St. (301.0)SBA64-75W100%0.0
2-27Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBA77-72L0%0.0
3-2UT Arlington (45.0)SBH57-72L0%0.0
3-4Texas St. (179.0)SBH65-70L0%0.0
3-8Arkansas St. (119.0)SBN70-73W100%0.0
3-10Texas St. (179.0)SBN63-51L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Monroe's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisiana Monroe's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisiana Monroe.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Louisiana MonroeSB26.4026.4021.6821.68-14.95-14.95
Texas St.SB5.575.5753.5753.570.400.40
Arkansas St.SB5.535.5360.7160.711.181.18
Louisiana LafayetteSB4.184.1858.6258.620.720.72
UT ArlingtonSB4.064.0672.4172.411.821.82
Little RockSB3.993.9942.8642.86-0.57-0.57
Georgia St.SB3.993.9957.1457.140.570.57
Georgia SouthernSB3.933.9350.0050.000.000.00
TroySB2.732.7357.5857.580.410.41
Coastal CarolinaSB2.652.6543.3343.33-0.35-0.35
South AlabamaSB2.532.5337.9337.93-0.61-0.61
Appalachian St.SB2.532.5325.9325.93-1.22-1.22
ChattanoogaSC1.741.7457.1457.140.250.25
TexasB121.691.6931.2531.25-0.63-0.63
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.681.6853.5753.570.120.12
Northwestern St.Slnd1.671.6733.3333.33-0.56-0.56
ColoradoP121.671.6754.8454.840.160.16
Jacksonville St.OVC1.641.6458.0658.060.260.26
Coppin St.MEAC1.641.6424.1424.14-0.85-0.85
SeattleWAC1.641.6434.6234.62-0.50-0.50
BryantNEC1.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
Grambling St.SWAC1.611.6144.8344.83-0.17-0.17
VCUA101.611.6175.7675.760.830.83
Central ArkansasSlnd0.330.3325.0025.00-0.17-0.17
MinnesotaB100.240.2472.7372.730.110.11
McNeese St.Slnd0.220.2219.2319.23-0.14-0.14
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.190.1960.7160.710.040.04
TulsaAmer0.180.1846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.180.1867.6567.650.070.07
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.180.1817.8617.86-0.12-0.12
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.160.1624.1424.14-0.09-0.09
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.160.1676.6776.670.090.09
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
TCUB120.150.1554.5554.550.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.140.1437.0437.04-0.04-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.140.1460.7160.710.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.140.1420.0020.00-0.08-0.08
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
WoffordSC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.136.906.90-0.11-0.11
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.1355.8855.880.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
LamarSlnd0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.110.1132.0032.00-0.04-0.04
MercerSC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
UtahP120.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1087.8887.880.080.08
ArkansasSEC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
HowardMEAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
HawaiiBW0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1044.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0968.9768.970.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0810.3410.34-0.07-0.07
HamptonMEAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
James MadisonCAA0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
FIUCUSA0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
WashingtonP120.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
BYUWCC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
ArmyPat0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
UTSACUSA0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
DavidsonA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
UABCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
FordhamA100.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
Washington St.P120.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
BaylorB120.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
George MasonA100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
RichmondA100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
RiceCUSA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
UMKCWAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
FurmanSC0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
VMISC0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
IdahoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
WagnerNEC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.020.02
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.9796.970.020.02
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
NavyPat0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
YaleIvy0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.020.0268.5768.570.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
IllinoisB100.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
La SalleA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
LSUSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00