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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Louisiana Monroe

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:244.0
Current RPI:244
Expected SOS:164
Current SOS:164
Current Record:9-17
Expected Record:9-17
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-3
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC RPI:128
Expected OOC SOS:14



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-17244.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Monroe.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Kansas (3.0)B12A80-63L0%0.0
11-18Samford (313.0)SCH86-52W100%0.0
11-21Northwestern St. (158.0)SlndA80-84W100%0.0
12-14LSU (83.0)SECA61-54L0%0.0
12-18Mississippi (94.0)SECA75-62L0%0.0
12-22Louisiana Tech (62.0)CUSAH61-83L0%0.0
12-27Ohio St. (24.0)B10A71-31L0%0.0
1-4Louisiana Lafayette (90.0)SBH103-98W100%0.0
1-9UT Arlington (199.0)SBA83-79L0%0.0
1-11Texas St. (307.0)SBH36-61L0%0.0
1-16Troy (285.0)SBA64-75W100%0.0
1-18South Alabama (280.0)SBA58-64W100%0.0
1-23Western Kentucky (125.0)SBH51-69L0%0.0
1-25Georgia St. (76.0)SBH58-66L0%0.0
1-30Arkansas St. (180.0)SBH72-65W100%0.0
2-1Louisiana Lafayette (90.0)SBA66-50L0%0.0
2-6Texas St. (307.0)SBA65-57L0%0.0
2-13UT Arlington (199.0)SBH74-85L0%0.0
2-15Arkansas Little Rock (186.0)SBH65-49W100%0.0
2-20Georgia St. (76.0)SBA75-60L0%0.0
2-22Western Kentucky (125.0)SBA72-63L0%0.0
2-27South Alabama (280.0)SBH71-54W100%0.0
3-1Troy (285.0)SBH46-61L0%0.0
3-6Arkansas St. (180.0)SBA64-58L0%0.0
3-8Arkansas Little Rock (186.0)SBA65-66W100%0.0
3-13UT Arlington (199.0)SBN68-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Monroe's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisiana Monroe's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisiana Monroe.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Louisiana MonroeSB26.5326.5335.8335.83-7.52-7.52
UT ArlingtonSB6.896.8937.0437.04-1.79-1.79
Louisiana LafayetteSB5.235.2365.5265.521.621.62
Arkansas Little RockSB5.075.0746.4346.43-0.36-0.36
Georgia St.SB5.075.0772.4172.412.272.27
Western KentuckySB5.075.0758.6258.620.870.87
Arkansas St.SB5.075.0757.1457.140.720.72
TroySB5.035.0329.6329.63-2.05-2.05
Texas St.SB4.944.9414.8114.81-3.47-3.47
South AlabamaSB4.934.9330.7730.77-1.90-1.90
MississippiSEC2.082.0856.2556.250.260.26
SamfordSC2.082.0834.4834.48-0.65-0.65
Northwestern St.Slnd2.042.0450.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA2.022.0278.1278.121.141.14
LSUSEC1.991.9958.0658.060.320.32
KansasB121.921.9271.8871.880.840.84
Ohio St.B101.921.9272.7372.730.870.87
Southern MissCUSA0.320.3280.6580.650.190.19
TexasB120.290.2969.7069.700.110.11
OklahomaB120.250.2571.8871.880.110.11
KentuckySEC0.240.2470.5970.590.100.10
Central ArkansasSlnd0.230.2324.0024.00-0.12-0.12
ArkansasSEC0.220.2265.6265.620.070.07
McNeese St.Slnd0.220.2225.9325.93-0.11-0.11
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.210.2193.1093.100.180.18
Houston BaptistSlnd0.200.2014.8114.81-0.14-0.14
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.190.1970.9770.970.080.08
AlabamaSEC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
Kansas St.B120.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
FloridaSEC0.150.1594.1294.120.130.13
NebraskaB100.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.140.1446.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.140.1410.7110.71-0.11-0.11
MemphisAmer0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
HoustonAmer0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
RiceCUSA0.130.1317.8617.86-0.08-0.08
ElonSC0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
UABCUSA0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
LouisvilleAmer0.120.1285.2985.290.090.09
TulsaCUSA0.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1021.2121.21-0.06-0.06
Appalachian St.SC0.100.1019.2319.23-0.06-0.06
Boise St.MWC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
TulaneCUSA0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
ColoradoP120.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
ToledoMAC0.090.0981.2581.250.060.06
North FloridaASun0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.090.0922.2222.22-0.05-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0941.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Penn St.B100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
DetroitHorz0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.070.0781.8281.820.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
South DakotaSum0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0767.8667.860.020.02
UtahP120.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0730.7730.77-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
DavidsonSC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
FurmanSC0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0614.8114.81-0.05-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
WoffordSC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
MarquetteBE0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
MissouriSEC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
TCUB120.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
IllinoisB100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
IowaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
MichiganB100.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Michigan St.B100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
MinnesotaB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.040.0453.5753.570.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
MarylandACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02