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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Louisiana Monroe

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:132.0
Current RPI:132
Expected SOS:188
Current SOS:188
Current Record:17-12
Expected Record:17-12
Current Conf Record:15-7
Expected Conf Record:15-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-3
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC RPI:214
Expected OOC SOS:131



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-12132.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Monroe.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15UAB (130.0)CUSAA65-74W100%0.0
11-21Florida (72.0)SECA61-56L0%0.0
11-26Coastal Carolina (124.0)BSthN48-61L0%0.0
11-27Robert Morris (171.0)NECN54-71L0%0.0
12-9Northwestern St. (161.0)SlndH82-74W100%0.0
12-13New Mexico (172.0)MWCA54-46L0%0.0
12-21Samford (305.0)SCA64-50L0%0.0
12-30Georgia St. (53.0)SBA65-45L0%0.0
1-5Arkansas St. (277.0)SBH70-61W100%0.0
1-8UT Arlington (184.0)SBA73-76W100%0.0
1-10Texas St. (236.0)SBA59-62W100%0.0
1-15Troy (313.0)SBH63-54W100%0.0
1-17Arkansas Little Rock (276.0)SBH64-52W100%0.0
1-19Louisiana Lafayette (142.0)SBA55-57W100%0.0
1-22UT Arlington (184.0)SBH57-61L0%0.0
1-24Georgia Southern (113.0)SBH53-57L0%0.0
1-29Troy (313.0)SBA55-58W100%0.0
1-31South Alabama (275.0)SBH67-61W100%0.0
2-5Arkansas Little Rock (276.0)SBA61-77W100%0.0
2-7Georgia Southern (113.0)SBA68-71W100%0.0
2-12Louisiana Lafayette (142.0)SBH67-55W100%0.0
2-14Appalachian St. (250.0)SBH69-58W100%0.0
2-21Arkansas St. (277.0)SBA70-68L0%0.0
2-26South Alabama (275.0)SBA57-75W100%0.0
2-28Appalachian St. (250.0)SBA66-43L0%0.0
3-5Georgia St. (53.0)SBH50-58L0%0.0
3-7Texas St. (236.0)SBH56-53W100%0.0
3-13South Alabama (275.0)SBN77-59W100%0.0
3-14Georgia Southern (113.0)SBN44-43L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Monroe's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisiana Monroe's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisiana Monroe.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Louisiana MonroeSB26.6726.6761.1561.155.955.95
South AlabamaSB6.366.3635.7135.71-1.82-1.82
Georgia SouthernSB6.346.3468.0068.002.282.28
Georgia St.SB4.794.7970.0070.001.911.91
Louisiana LafayetteSB4.784.7860.7160.711.021.02
Texas St.SB4.744.7442.3142.31-0.73-0.73
Arkansas Little RockSB4.714.7142.8642.86-0.67-0.67
UT ArlingtonSB4.694.6950.0050.000.000.00
Appalachian St.SB4.634.6340.7440.74-0.86-0.86
Arkansas St.SB4.624.6234.6234.62-1.42-1.42
TroySB4.624.6232.0032.00-1.66-1.66
Northwestern St.Slnd1.781.7857.6957.690.270.27
FloridaSEC1.751.7546.8846.88-0.11-0.11
UABCUSA1.751.7556.2556.250.220.22
Coastal CarolinaBSth1.721.7267.8667.860.620.62
New MexicoMWC1.721.7246.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Robert MorrisNEC1.721.7256.2556.250.220.22
SamfordSC1.721.7236.6736.67-0.46-0.46
Central ArkansasSlnd0.300.306.906.90-0.26-0.26
Southern MissCUSA0.250.2525.9325.93-0.12-0.12
Louisiana TechCUSA0.200.2075.0075.000.100.10
Green BayHorz0.170.1773.3373.330.080.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.160.1652.9452.940.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.160.1686.6786.670.120.12
LamarSlnd0.160.1642.3142.31-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.150.1540.7440.74-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
MississippiSEC0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
FIUCUSA0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
ChattanoogaSC0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
IUPUISum0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
KentuckySEC0.140.14100.00100.000.140.14
Nicholls St.Slnd0.130.1326.9226.92-0.06-0.06
TexasB120.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
TulsaAmer0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
AuburnSEC0.110.1141.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Miami FLACC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1181.2581.250.070.07
Western CarolinaSC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
StetsonASun0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
UCFAmer0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
UTSACUSA0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
UMKCWAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.080.0856.0056.000.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
RichmondA100.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
LSUSEC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
BryantNEC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
WagnerNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
HofstraCAA0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
BYUWCC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
The CitadelSC0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
VMISC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.060.0681.2581.250.030.03
WyomingMWC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
OaklandHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
USCP120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
LafayettePat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
YaleIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01