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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Louisiana Monroe

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:95.0
Current RPI:95
Expected SOS:135
Current SOS:135
Current Record:18-13
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:16-6
Expected Conf Record:16-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:217
Expected OOC SOS:94



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1395.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Monroe.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Minnesota (257.0)B10A67-56L0%0.0
11-19Northwestern St. (344.0)SlndA64-80W100%0.0
11-28Houston (87.0)AmerA76-64L0%0.0
11-30Chattanooga (50.0)SCH64-54W100%0.0
12-3Louisiana Lafayette (157.0)SBH81-70W100%0.0
12-10Kent St. (124.0)MACA73-62L0%0.0
12-12Penn St. (125.0)B10A54-50L0%0.0
12-13West Virginia (10.0)B12A100-58L0%0.0
12-22Canisius (220.0)MAACN108-96L0%0.0
12-23Hampton (155.0)MEACN64-75L0%0.0
12-31Appalachian St. (259.0)SBH72-56W100%0.0
1-7Arkansas St. (285.0)SBA68-65L0%0.0
1-9Arkansas Little Rock (42.0)SBA58-57L0%0.0
1-14Georgia St. (180.0)SBA65-51L0%0.0
1-16Georgia Southern (243.0)SBA66-51L0%0.0
1-21Troy (293.0)SBH85-74W100%0.0
1-23South Alabama (240.0)SBH100-68W100%0.0
1-28UT Arlington (105.0)SBH99-88W100%0.0
1-30Texas St. (238.0)SBH72-59W100%0.0
2-2Louisiana Lafayette (157.0)SBA72-65L0%0.0
2-6Appalachian St. (259.0)SBA90-91W100%0.0
2-11Arkansas Little Rock (42.0)SBH86-82W100%0.0
2-13Arkansas St. (285.0)SBH78-73W100%0.0
2-18Texas St. (238.0)SBA57-76W100%0.0
2-20UT Arlington (105.0)SBA61-64W100%0.0
2-25South Alabama (240.0)SBA59-66W100%0.0
2-27Troy (293.0)SBA51-66W100%0.0
3-3Georgia Southern (243.0)SBH83-76W100%0.0
3-5Georgia St. (180.0)SBH91-78W100%0.0
3-12UT Arlington (105.0)SBN82-71W100%0.0
3-13Arkansas Little Rock (42.0)SBN70-50L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Monroe's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisiana Monroe's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisiana Monroe.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Louisiana MonroeSB26.5826.5864.0064.007.447.44
UT ArlingtonSB5.935.9375.8675.863.073.07
Arkansas Little RockSB5.935.9389.2989.294.664.66
Texas St.SB4.434.4348.1548.15-0.16-0.16
Louisiana LafayetteSB4.434.4351.8551.850.160.16
South AlabamaSB4.424.4241.3841.38-0.76-0.76
Georgia SouthernSB4.354.3540.7440.74-0.81-0.81
Georgia St.SB4.354.3550.0050.000.000.00
Appalachian St.SB4.344.3431.0331.03-1.64-1.64
Arkansas St.SB4.304.3029.6329.63-1.75-1.75
TroySB4.304.3025.9325.93-2.07-2.07
Penn St.B101.691.6948.3948.39-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC1.661.6665.5265.520.520.52
CanisiusMAAC1.661.6640.6240.62-0.31-0.31
Kent St.MAC1.661.6656.6756.670.220.22
MinnesotaB101.641.6423.3323.33-0.87-0.87
ChattanoogaSC1.611.6187.1087.101.201.20
HoustonAmer1.611.6170.0070.000.650.65
Northwestern St.Slnd1.611.6121.7421.74-0.91-0.91
West VirginiaB121.611.6175.7675.760.830.83
Central ArkansasSlnd0.280.2825.0025.00-0.14-0.14
MississippiSEC0.200.2062.5062.500.050.05
SamfordSC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.180.1826.9226.92-0.08-0.08
TexasB120.180.1862.5062.500.040.04
Southern MissCUSA0.170.1725.9325.93-0.08-0.08
Savannah St.MEAC0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
Texas TechB120.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
BaylorB120.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
IdahoBSky0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
North TexasCUSA0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
TulaneAmer0.130.1335.2935.29-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
IllinoisB100.130.1344.1244.12-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.120.1282.1482.140.080.08
UABCUSA0.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
IUPUISum0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
South FloridaAmer0.110.1124.2424.24-0.06-0.06
The CitadelSC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
SMUAmer0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
East CarolinaAmer0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
FurmanSC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
MercerSC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
MichiganB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
NorthwesternB100.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
MemphisAmer0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
AuburnSEC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
WinthropBSth0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0818.5218.52-0.05-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
TempleAmer0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
RutgersB100.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
HofstraCAA0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
IowaB100.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Michigan St.B100.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
NebraskaB100.080.0847.0647.06-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
FordhamA100.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0814.2914.29-0.05-0.05
VMISC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
KansasB120.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
OklahomaB120.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
TCUB120.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0662.8662.860.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Miami FLACC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
MissouriSEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
OregonP120.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
UCLAP120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Washington St.P120.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
DenverSum0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
AmericanPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
NJITASun0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
CornellIvy0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00