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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


High Point

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:245.0
Current RPI:167
Expected SOS:273
Current SOS:101
Current Record:3-5
Expected Record:13-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-6
Current OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:236
Expected OOC SOS:175



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-8110.70.03%
19-9121.80.13%
18-10143.00.56%
17-11160.81.66%
16-12179.95.00%
15-13200.29.76%
14-14219.314.84%
13-15238.818.78%
12-16257.719.24%
11-17275.315.28%
10-18290.38.93%
9-19303.73.87%
8-20314.51.42%
7-21323.40.41%
6-22331.60.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for High Point.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Virginia Tech (69.4)ACCA99-73L0%0.0
11-18UNC Greensboro (173.7)SCH63-57W100%0.0
11-19Navy (261.6)PatH69-62W100%0.0
11-20North Dakota St. (146.4)SumH44-70L0%0.0
11-25Clemson (72.1)ACCA83-74L0%0.0
11-28Morgan St. (324.6)MEACA61-62W100%0.0
12-3Drexel (217.5)CAAH72-78L0%0.0
12-6Vanderbilt (74.8)SECA90-63L0%0.0
12-16UNC Wilmington (48.9)CAAH0-015%-12.2
12-19Western Carolina (271.5)SCA0-057%2.0
12-29Gardner Webb (194.0)BSthA0-028%-7.1
12-31Longwood (331.9)BSthH0-081%10.6
1-4Winthrop (108.7)BSthH0-029%-6.5
1-7UNC Asheville (83.1)BSthA0-014%-12.8
1-11Liberty (222.2)BSthH0-053%0.8
1-14Presbyterian (327.2)BSthH0-083%11.4
1-19Campbell (293.0)BSthA0-051%0.2
1-21Radford (263.8)BSthA0-048%-0.5
1-26Charleston Southern (260.2)BSthH0-063%3.9
1-28Winthrop (108.7)BSthA0-014%-12.8
2-1Longwood (331.9)BSthA0-064%4.3
2-4UNC Asheville (83.1)BSthH0-029%-6.6
2-9Presbyterian (327.2)BSthA0-067%5.2
2-11Radford (263.8)BSthH0-068%5.8
2-14Liberty (222.2)BSthA0-032%-5.5
2-18Charleston Southern (260.2)BSthA0-042%-2.4
2-23Campbell (293.0)BSthH0-070%6.4
2-25Gardner Webb (194.0)BSthH0-047%-0.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

High Point's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


High Point's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  High Point.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
High PointBSth28.2626.4836.1144.52-7.85-2.90
UNC AshevilleBSth0.004.6862.5071.370.002.00
CampbellBSth0.394.6742.8639.65-0.06-0.97
LibertyBSth0.454.6528.5745.97-0.19-0.37
RadfordBSth0.004.6528.5733.94-0.00-1.49
PresbyterianBSth0.454.6428.5724.32-0.19-2.38
Charleston SouthernBSth0.004.6420.0037.75-0.00-1.14
Gardner WebbBSth0.004.6233.3351.16-0.000.11
LongwoodBSth0.004.6120.0021.48-0.00-2.63
WinthropBSth0.004.6150.0070.790.001.92
UNC GreensboroSC7.042.1083.3357.634.700.32
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.002.0083.3377.030.001.08
Virginia TechACC6.251.9183.3361.214.170.43
Western CarolinaSC0.001.9128.5722.29-0.00-1.06
ClemsonACC6.251.8866.6752.992.080.11
Morgan St.MEAC6.251.8528.5742.71-2.68-0.27
NavyPat7.141.8537.5039.93-1.79-0.37
North Dakota St.Sum7.041.8550.0057.440.000.28
DrexelCAA6.251.8542.8639.44-0.89-0.39
VanderbiltSEC6.251.7950.0045.000.00-0.18
VMISC0.450.480.0016.56-0.45-0.32
FurmanSC0.350.4842.8657.52-0.050.07
The CitadelSC0.000.2950.0030.320.00-0.11
USC UpstateASun0.000.2644.4441.55-0.00-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.450.2557.1451.810.060.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.2533.3346.06-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.2462.5054.660.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.2288.8967.470.000.08
MercerSC0.000.2242.8647.68-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.1962.5056.520.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.1912.5030.17-0.00-0.07
Wake ForestACC0.000.1877.7855.180.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.350.1866.6761.690.120.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.1614.2942.77-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1683.3379.920.000.09
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1575.0074.590.000.08
TowsonCAA0.390.1542.8653.80-0.060.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1440.0054.81-0.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1342.8643.55-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.1325.0026.46-0.00-0.06
ColgatePat0.000.1312.5030.11-0.00-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.000.1357.1451.740.000.00
VCUA100.000.1375.0072.930.000.06
WoffordSC0.000.130.0034.69-0.00-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.000.1250.0044.700.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.890.1257.1444.830.13-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.1287.5081.910.000.08
PittsburghACC0.000.1275.0048.980.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.350.1277.7862.010.190.03
VirginiaACC0.450.1288.8978.430.350.07
Miami FLACC0.000.1277.7866.740.000.04
DelawareCAA0.000.1250.0041.700.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.1255.5643.870.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.1244.4443.25-0.00-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.390.1022.2232.01-0.22-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.890.100.0020.63-0.89-0.06
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1070.0050.010.000.00
MaineAE0.450.1014.2923.40-0.32-0.05
HoustonAmer0.390.1075.0075.180.200.05
HowardMEAC0.000.1016.6743.53-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0971.4373.270.000.04
West VirginiaB120.000.0985.7183.250.000.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.450.090.0017.16-0.45-0.06
LafayettePat0.390.0942.8635.40-0.06-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.0987.5069.040.000.03
BucknellPat0.350.0970.0070.530.140.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0957.1429.760.00-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.000.0957.1436.370.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.450.0971.4365.470.190.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0750.0050.170.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0750.0056.890.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0076.540.000.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0020.72-0.00-0.04
DenverSum0.000.0742.8645.65-0.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0762.5070.890.000.03
George MasonA100.000.0762.5046.490.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0766.6751.140.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0733.3351.57-0.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0737.5050.92-0.000.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0762.5062.120.000.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0733.3355.64-0.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0771.4354.010.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.070.0022.75-0.00-0.04
Saint LouisA100.000.0725.0023.99-0.00-0.03
South DakotaSum0.000.0750.0046.820.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0725.0040.17-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0733.3340.37-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0725.0055.44-0.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0787.5061.660.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.070.0016.33-0.00-0.04
AkronMAC0.000.0671.4368.930.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0612.5037.11-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0056.080.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0022.47-0.00-0.04
IndianaB100.000.0687.5074.510.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0688.8956.710.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0642.8640.38-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.17-0.00-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0620.0060.00-0.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0019.08-0.00-0.04
SMUAmer0.000.0666.6766.650.000.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0620.0035.15-0.00-0.02
XavierBE0.890.0687.5070.880.670.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0662.5074.160.000.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.54-0.00-0.02
RutgersB100.780.0687.5050.250.590.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0026.22-0.00-0.03
AmericanPat0.000.0612.5028.64-0.00-0.03
ArmyPat0.000.0642.8650.29-0.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0642.8655.07-0.000.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0625.0038.98-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0637.5047.44-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.0688.8977.470.000.03
LehighPat0.000.0637.5061.81-0.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0642.8645.85-0.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0633.3350.05-0.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.350.060.0036.38-0.35-0.02
HartfordAE0.390.0622.2226.44-0.22-0.03
PennIvy0.350.0633.3356.66-0.120.01
UMBCAE0.350.0680.0054.190.210.01
MarquetteBE0.350.0677.7864.250.190.02
DukeACC0.000.0690.0080.060.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.0687.5075.690.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0675.0050.980.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0076.970.000.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0662.5062.080.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0687.5075.730.000.03
MississippiSEC0.000.0675.0047.990.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.06100.0078.180.000.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0677.7872.930.000.03
KentuckySEC0.000.0687.5082.220.000.04
Arkansas St.SB0.450.0375.0066.120.220.01
Missouri St.MVC0.450.0360.0058.900.090.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0350.0045.660.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0312.5031.01-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.390.0325.0040.78-0.20-0.01
BrownIvy0.390.0350.0043.770.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0325.0043.29-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0355.5647.600.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0325.0045.82-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0366.6746.170.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0328.5752.65-0.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0316.6730.09-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.350.0322.2246.51-0.19-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0342.8643.78-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0314.2943.08-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0362.5053.550.000.00
DavidsonA100.450.0371.4362.990.190.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0050.980.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0350.0045.130.00-0.00
La SalleA100.390.0357.1456.540.060.00
MichiganB100.450.0377.7865.840.250.01
MonmouthMAAC0.390.0377.7872.210.220.01
New MexicoMWC0.450.0362.5058.130.110.00
NiagaraMAAC0.390.0325.0035.75-0.20-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.390.0333.3331.35-0.13-0.01
OklahomaB120.450.0371.4348.030.19-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0328.5737.54-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0357.1450.790.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0342.8645.34-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0070.350.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0337.5047.57-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6735.90-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.280.000.00
BelmontOVC0.350.0357.1464.500.050.01
ButlerBE0.350.03100.0074.830.350.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0375.0071.330.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4347.690.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.350.0388.8966.920.270.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0375.0047.520.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0362.5044.840.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.350.0333.3332.79-0.12-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.350.0385.7169.920.250.01