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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


High Point

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:148.5
Current RPI:96
Expected SOS:228
Current SOS:192
Current Record:3-1
Expected Record:15-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-3
Current OOC Record:3-1
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:103
Expected OOC SOS:167



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-436.30.03%
22-549.70.16%
21-663.40.58%
20-773.51.88%
19-888.54.76%
18-9102.69.03%
17-10118.614.85%
16-11135.717.55%
15-12153.817.26%
14-13172.214.96%
13-14193.010.17%
12-15214.85.15%
11-16234.62.59%
10-17258.80.78%
9-18272.40.20%
8-19274.00.03%
7-20301.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for High Point.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Cal St. Bakersfield (291.1)WACN99-100W100%0.0
11-15Arkansas Pine Bluff (317.2)SWACN74-62W100%0.0
11-18Hawaii (210.5)BWA54-62W100%0.0
11-22Richmond (52.6)A10A80-56L0%0.0
11-28Clemson (118.4)ACCA0-014%-12.8
12-1UNC Greensboro (323.1)SCA0-065%4.6
12-6William & Mary (106.0)CAAH0-048%-0.5
12-10Ohio St. (32.1)B10A0-04%-20.7
12-20James Madison (214.3)CAAA0-043%-2.2
12-31Coastal Carolina (143.8)BSthH0-051%0.2
1-3Winthrop (213.6)BSthA0-042%-2.5
1-8Charleston Southern (180.6)BSthH0-064%4.2
1-10Campbell (292.5)BSthH0-082%11.2
1-14Gardner Webb (124.9)BSthA0-031%-6.0
1-19Longwood (335.4)BSthH0-092%17.1
1-22Radford (204.8)BSthA0-042%-2.4
1-24UNC Asheville (197.4)BSthH0-065%4.8
1-26Presbyterian (321.7)BSthA0-075%8.2
1-29Liberty (333.4)BSthA0-072%6.9
2-3Radford (204.8)BSthH0-065%4.7
2-6Coastal Carolina (143.8)BSthA0-028%-7.0
2-11Winthrop (213.6)BSthH0-065%4.7
2-14Campbell (292.5)BSthA0-063%4.0
2-18Gardner Webb (124.9)BSthH0-054%1.2
2-21Presbyterian (321.7)BSthH0-090%15.4
2-26UNC Asheville (197.4)BSthA0-042%-2.4
2-28Charleston Southern (180.6)BSthA0-040%-3.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

High Point's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


High Point's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  High Point.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
High PointBSth30.4226.4785.0061.6121.296.15
CampbellBSth0.004.790.0032.13-0.00-1.71
Gardner WebbBSth0.004.7540.0059.01-0.000.86
RadfordBSth2.084.7433.3352.79-0.690.26
PresbyterianBSth0.004.710.0023.03-0.00-2.54
WinthropBSth0.004.7033.3355.24-0.000.49
UNC AshevilleBSth0.004.6833.3350.84-0.000.08
Charleston SouthernBSth0.004.6766.6754.770.000.45
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.004.670.0066.75-0.001.56
LongwoodBSth0.003.0425.0021.18-0.00-1.75
LibertyBSth0.002.9725.0029.93-0.00-1.19
James MadisonCAA0.002.1575.0047.450.00-0.11
ClemsonACC0.001.9960.0050.960.000.04
RichmondA1012.501.9850.0065.630.000.62
UNC GreensboroSC0.001.950.0027.74-0.00-0.87
Ohio St.B100.001.95100.0073.970.000.93
William & MaryCAA0.001.9475.0056.620.000.26
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC14.791.9220.0032.82-8.88-0.66
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC14.581.9225.0039.52-7.29-0.40
HawaiiBW14.791.9180.0056.918.880.26
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.2666.6747.140.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.2640.0052.47-0.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.2480.0076.700.000.13
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.2166.6757.980.000.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.2125.0050.46-0.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.2050.0031.510.00-0.08
SamfordSC0.000.2040.0040.15-0.00-0.04
DelawareCAA1.250.200.0018.08-1.25-0.13
AuburnSEC0.000.1850.0035.490.00-0.05
FurmanSC0.000.1733.3323.56-0.00-0.09
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.16100.0061.980.000.04
ElonCAA0.000.1650.0043.080.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.16100.0072.230.000.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.150.0035.72-0.00-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.150.0023.12-0.00-0.08
MississippiSEC0.000.1575.0052.730.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1425.0031.38-0.00-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1440.0033.07-0.00-0.05
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1333.3333.84-0.00-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.1340.0039.52-0.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.1325.0046.48-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA2.080.1380.0074.571.250.07
Wake ForestACC0.000.1360.0047.180.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.130.0027.32-0.00-0.06
DrexelCAA0.000.1320.0035.41-0.00-0.04
HofstraCAA0.000.1360.0066.760.000.04
PurdueB100.000.1380.0067.040.000.04
TowsonCAA0.000.1380.0058.000.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.13100.0069.870.000.05
ColgatePat0.000.1325.0039.71-0.00-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.1350.0053.610.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1333.3333.44-0.00-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.000.100.0029.35-0.00-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1040.0050.32-0.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1033.3346.11-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.10100.0072.100.000.04
Wright St.Horz0.000.1066.6756.780.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1066.6741.550.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.10100.0084.950.000.07
LSUSEC0.000.1060.0056.190.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1020.0053.43-0.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.1050.0030.040.00-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.000.100.0035.37-0.00-0.03
IndianaB100.000.0980.0058.080.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6772.650.000.04
IowaB100.000.0960.0064.290.000.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0750.0064.410.000.02
UCLAP120.000.07100.0065.220.000.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0750.0034.200.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0725.0033.31-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0740.0044.83-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0760.0068.250.000.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.07100.0065.600.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0725.0052.70-0.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.070.0028.11-0.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.000.0733.3344.17-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.07100.0042.270.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0733.3367.26-0.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.070.0057.70-0.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0760.0057.160.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.07100.0075.900.000.04
CornellIvy0.000.0733.3336.17-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.07100.0057.240.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.070.0024.22-0.00-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0780.0070.940.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.07100.0065.620.000.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0733.3359.03-0.000.01
TCUB120.000.07100.0057.870.000.01
PittsburghACC1.040.0750.0050.280.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.070.0046.09-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.0019.97-0.00-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0740.0047.31-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0733.3353.13-0.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0740.0067.55-0.000.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0725.0045.15-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.070.0032.89-0.00-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.07100.0030.140.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.000.070.0029.35-0.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0725.0046.58-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0766.6750.600.000.00
VMISC0.000.0733.3338.23-0.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0775.0053.250.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0051.400.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0640.0038.29-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3346.41-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.06100.0049.350.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0680.0071.450.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0079.500.000.04
RutgersB100.000.0650.0024.400.00-0.03
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0075.610.000.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0032.72-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0066.91-0.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.98-0.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0620.0022.51-0.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0020.75-0.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0620.0043.52-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0675.0066.400.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0675.0072.430.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0017.79-0.00-0.04
Penn St.B100.000.0683.3348.030.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0040.78-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0052.460.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0038.95-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz1.040.0675.0055.300.520.01
VCUA100.000.0680.0073.820.000.03
BYUWCC0.000.0466.6769.270.000.01
MaristMAAC1.040.040.0031.98-1.04-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0425.0048.23-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0425.0039.42-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC1.040.0466.6763.740.350.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.040.0050.30-0.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6771.550.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3330.02-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0325.0025.51-0.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0069.250.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.030.0025.33-0.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.030.0028.60-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.03100.0048.940.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC1.250.03100.0087.571.250.02
South DakotaSum0.000.030.0038.43-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3353.25-0.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0375.0061.090.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0036.25-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.030.0028.76-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0081.020.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0340.0038.71-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0021.34-0.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0081.280.000.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0325.0043.34-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0320.0029.38-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0043.52-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0380.0067.890.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0333.3345.79-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0066.000.000.01
Central MichiganMAC1.040.03100.0053.791.040.00
DaytonA100.000.0375.0071.680.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0055.470.000.00
FordhamA100.000.030.0026.74-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0366.6760.350.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.710.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0340.0031.23-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.03100.0056.940.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0350.0037.650.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0380.0060.610.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0366.6759.490.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0325.0047.03-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0073.990.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.03100.0043.950.00-0.00
OhioMAC1.040.0366.6752.600.350.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0366.6754.750.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0060.980.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0360.0037.460.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0375.0047.410.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0038.65-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0020.18-0.00-0.02
StanfordP120.000.0380.0070.420.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0375.0045.460.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0360.0042.550.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0084.260.000.02