High Point

Conference:	BSth
Expected RPI:	283.7
Current RPI:	295
Expected SOS:	248
Current SOS:	275
Current Record:	7-15
Expected Record:	9-18
Current Conf Record:	5-9
Expected Conf Record:	7-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.86%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-7
Current OOC Record:	2-6
Expected OOC Record:	2-7
Expected OOC RPI:	293
Expected OOC SOS:	219

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-15	230.9	0.36%
11-16	250.2	3.89%
10-17	268.5	18.71%
9-18	283.5	40.16%
8-19	294.5	31.45%
7-20	302.7	5.42%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for High Point.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-14	Purdue (64.4)	B10	A	67-65	L	0%	0.0
11-18	Central Florida (75.0)	CUSA	A	84-72	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Tennessee Tech (136.2)	OVC	H	57-62	L	0%	0.0
11-26	The Citadel (332.3)	SC	H	80-72	W	100%	0.0
11-29	Hampton (310.6)	MEAC	A	68-64	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Campbell (163.3)	BSth	A	72-62	L	0%	0.0
12-7	Wake Forest (173.5)	ACC	H	83-87	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Marshall (62.0)	CUSA	A	79-59	L	0%	0.0
12-21	Wofford (177.8)	SC	H	87-79	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Coastal Carolina (132.7)	BSth	H	52-55	L	0%	0.0
1-2	Charleston Southern (152.9)	BSth	H	88-78	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Presbyterian (254.3)	BSth	A	57-63	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Gardner Webb (269.3)	BSth	A	65-61	L	0%	0.0
1-12	Winthrop (267.3)	BSth	H	64-54	W	100%	0.0
1-14	NC Asheville (116.0)	BSth	H	79-86	L	0%	0.0
1-17	Radford (335.3)	BSth	A	85-66	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Virginia Military Inst (265.0)	BSth	A	88-77	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Liberty (310.4)	BSth	H	78-84	L	0%	0.0
1-26	NC Asheville (116.0)	BSth	A	90-70	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Winthrop (267.3)	BSth	A	47-52	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Presbyterian (254.3)	BSth	H	62-65	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Gardner Webb (269.3)	BSth	H	81-77	W	100%	0.0
2-9	Coastal Carolina (132.7)	BSth	A	0-0		17%	-10.4
2-11	Charleston Southern (152.9)	BSth	A	0-0		18%	-10.1
2-14	Radford (335.3)	BSth	H	0-0		81%	9.4
2-18	Stephen F. Austin (256.1)	Slnd	A	0-0		26%	-7.0
2-22	Campbell (163.3)	BSth	H	0-0		44%	-1.6

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

High Point's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

High Point's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against High Point.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
High Point	BSth	26.53	26.43	29.59	31.25	-10.83	-9.91
Gardner Webb	BSth	5.32	4.72	33.33	37.90	-1.77	-1.14
Coastal Carolina	BSth	3.19	4.70	66.67	66.63	1.06	1.56
Charleston Southern	BSth	3.20	4.70	57.89	61.95	0.51	1.12
Campbell	BSth	3.37	4.69	56.00	56.87	0.40	0.64
Radford	BSth	3.15	4.65	4.55	9.67	-2.87	-3.75
Presbyterian	BSth	5.23	4.65	40.00	43.17	-1.05	-0.64
NC Asheville	BSth	5.32	4.64	65.00	65.14	1.60	1.40
Winthrop	BSth	5.37	4.63	38.10	37.43	-1.28	-1.17
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	3.24	2.96	42.11	41.95	-0.51	-0.48
Liberty	BSth	3.24	2.96	23.81	24.63	-1.70	-1.50
The Citadel	SC	2.54	2.10	10.00	11.91	-2.04	-1.60
Wofford	SC	2.43	2.02	59.09	59.24	0.44	0.37
Wake Forest	ACC	2.42	1.95	45.45	41.69	-0.22	-0.32
Tennessee Tech	OVC	2.27	1.93	59.09	58.36	0.41	0.32
Marshall	CUSA	2.33	1.92	57.14	58.34	0.33	0.32
Central Florida	CUSA	2.32	1.92	70.00	65.31	0.93	0.59
Hampton	MEAC	2.32	1.88	31.82	35.01	-0.85	-0.57
Purdue	B10	2.27	1.85	60.87	59.47	0.49	0.35
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.00	1.85	44.44	47.13	-0.00	-0.11
College of Charleston	SC	0.43	0.38	58.33	59.92	0.07	0.08
East Carolina	CUSA	0.26	0.33	44.44	41.65	-0.03	-0.06
Clemson	ACC	0.36	0.30	47.83	45.51	-0.02	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.35	0.26	34.78	37.27	-0.11	-0.07
Appalachian St.	SC	0.14	0.26	33.33	37.16	-0.05	-0.07
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.30	0.23	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.26	0.20	77.27	77.37	0.14	0.11
Furman	SC	0.26	0.20	45.45	47.20	-0.02	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.25	0.19	70.83	64.53	0.10	0.06
Stetson	ASun	0.17	0.18	30.43	29.57	-0.07	-0.07
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.15	0.16	34.78	38.43	-0.05	-0.04
Georgia Southern	SC	0.15	0.16	42.86	43.11	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.20	0.16	69.57	65.37	0.08	0.05
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.25	0.16	14.29	16.80	-0.18	-0.11
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.20	0.16	39.13	36.12	-0.04	-0.04
Florida St.	ACC	0.16	0.14	72.73	71.57	0.07	0.06
William & Mary	CAA	0.15	0.13	12.50	13.42	-0.11	-0.10
Chattanooga	SC	0.15	0.13	27.27	35.05	-0.07	-0.04
Memphis	CUSA	0.11	0.13	69.57	71.58	0.04	0.06
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.11	0.13	85.71	82.22	0.08	0.08
UAB	CUSA	0.16	0.13	40.91	39.81	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.13	55.00	54.45	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.15	0.13	82.61	79.93	0.10	0.08
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.13	38.89	41.49	-0.01	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.15	0.12	75.00	75.73	0.07	0.06
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.12	41.67	38.63	-0.02	-0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.09	0.12	25.00	28.48	-0.04	-0.05
Iowa	B10	0.14	0.12	54.17	49.41	0.01	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.06	0.11	33.33	37.11	-0.02	-0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.16	0.10	45.45	44.56	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.16	0.10	65.22	62.35	0.05	0.03
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.10	43.48	43.27	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.11	0.10	52.38	49.77	0.01	-0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.11	0.10	34.78	33.38	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.10	81.82	77.18	0.03	0.05
Army	Pat	0.16	0.10	40.91	41.68	-0.03	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.15	0.10	86.96	83.30	0.11	0.07
Georgia	SEC	0.15	0.10	45.45	41.17	-0.01	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.15	0.10	20.83	23.61	-0.09	-0.05
South Carolina	SEC	0.15	0.10	40.91	39.60	-0.03	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.10	42.11	45.89	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.10	0.10	36.36	40.96	-0.03	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.15	0.10	26.32	29.64	-0.07	-0.04
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.10	81.82	76.80	0.06	0.05
Tulane	CUSA	0.16	0.10	61.90	58.61	0.04	0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.15	0.10	43.48	43.89	-0.02	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.15	0.10	40.91	42.97	-0.03	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.10	0.09	23.81	33.67	-0.05	-0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.10	0.09	31.82	34.86	-0.04	-0.03
Richmond	A10	0.15	0.09	50.00	48.48	0.00	-0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.09	47.83	50.66	-0.00	0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.09	60.87	53.44	0.02	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.15	0.09	54.55	58.39	0.01	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.10	0.09	66.67	63.50	0.03	0.03
Butler	Horz	0.15	0.09	50.00	50.81	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.09	40.91	38.38	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	56.52	55.22	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.15	0.09	42.11	49.86	-0.02	-0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.07	59.09	57.27	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.07	73.91	68.41	0.03	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.00	0.07	26.32	29.85	-0.00	-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.00	0.07	17.39	20.75	-0.00	-0.04
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.00	0.07	76.19	75.98	0.00	0.04
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.00	0.07	57.14	60.72	0.00	0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.00	0.07	22.22	27.56	-0.00	-0.03
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.07	82.61	80.50	0.04	0.04
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.07	61.90	67.29	0.01	0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.11	0.07	60.00	58.30	0.02	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.07	50.00	45.20	0.00	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.07	56.52	56.80	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.10	0.07	18.18	15.00	-0.07	-0.05
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.07	28.57	35.72	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.07	35.00	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	ind	0.11	0.07	28.57	25.79	-0.05	-0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.07	30.43	25.84	-0.02	-0.03
Samford	SC	0.10	0.07	33.33	35.20	-0.03	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.10	0.07	52.17	50.01	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.10	0.07	79.17	78.05	0.06	0.04
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.07	80.00	76.67	0.06	0.04
Morehead St.	OVC	0.10	0.07	45.45	47.09	-0.01	-0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.07	100.00	94.58	0.05	0.06
Navy	Pat	0.10	0.07	9.52	13.17	-0.08	-0.05
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.07	56.52	53.06	0.01	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.07	87.50	85.41	0.08	0.05
James Madison	CAA	0.10	0.07	40.00	40.17	-0.02	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.06	47.62	44.58	-0.00	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.06	47.62	46.51	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.06	38.10	37.80	-0.01	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.11	0.06	60.87	59.05	0.02	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.10	0.06	66.67	65.98	0.03	0.02
Belmont	ASun	0.10	0.06	70.83	73.74	0.04	0.03
Binghamton	AE	0.00	0.06	0.00	4.04	-0.00	-0.06
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.06	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.06	76.00	72.48	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.06	96.00	93.53	0.05	0.06
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.06	70.83	71.06	0.02	0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.06	34.78	33.44	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.10	0.06	79.17	80.14	0.06	0.04
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.06	75.00	74.01	0.05	0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.06	30.43	26.42	-0.02	-0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.04	0.06	9.09	12.82	-0.04	-0.05
Creighton	MVC	0.04	0.06	84.00	82.62	0.03	0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.00	0.06	39.13	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.10	0.06	21.74	25.63	-0.06	-0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	69.57	70.42	0.02	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.06	50.00	44.98	0.00	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.06	69.57	61.84	0.02	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.06	69.57	66.33	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.06	77.27	73.50	0.03	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.06	63.64	57.79	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.04	47.37	42.13	-0.00	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.00	0.04	27.78	29.77	-0.00	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.00	0.04	44.44	45.20	-0.00	-0.00
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.06	0.04	13.04	14.47	-0.04	-0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.00	0.04	25.00	23.73	-0.00	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.00	0.04	69.57	64.49	0.00	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.04	62.50	59.52	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.00	0.04	33.33	33.82	-0.00	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.00	0.04	27.78	29.51	-0.00	-0.01
Denver	SB	0.05	0.03	70.83	72.24	0.02	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.03	59.09	56.38	0.01	0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.03	50.00	52.04	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.00	0.03	33.33	34.54	-0.00	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.03	47.83	47.08	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.03	66.67	69.71	0.02	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.03	20.83	22.81	-0.03	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.03	90.48	87.91	0.04	0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.03	8.33	10.90	-0.04	-0.03
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	74.94	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.03	54.17	54.76	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.03	20.83	20.61	-0.03	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	47.62	47.19	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.03	4.35	9.74	-0.05	-0.03
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.98	0.02	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.03	24.00	24.86	-0.03	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.03	34.78	35.19	-0.02	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.00	0.05	0.03
American	Pat	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.79	0.02	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.03	30.43	31.40	-0.02	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.00	0.03	22.73	24.64	-0.00	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.03	40.91	34.45	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.03	78.26	74.29	0.03	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.00	0.03	19.05	19.39	-0.00	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.03	68.00	70.06	0.02	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	46.87	0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.03	44.00	45.88	-0.01	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.65	0.02	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.03	54.55	57.71	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.03	72.22	63.23	0.02	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	70.16	0.02	0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.03	33.33	32.18	-0.02	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.03	70.83	62.75	0.02	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.03	5.26	7.29	-0.04	-0.03
Temple	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	75.07	0.03	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.69	0.01	0.01