live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


High Point

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:89.0
Current RPI:89
Expected SOS:206
Current SOS:206
Current Record:19-9
Expected Record:19-9
Current Conf Record:13-6
Expected Conf Record:13-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-0
Current OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC RPI:40
Expected OOC SOS:142



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-989.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for High Point.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Cal St. Bakersfield (301.0)WACN99-100W100%0.0
11-15Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACN74-62W100%0.0
11-18Hawaii (152.0)BWA54-62W100%0.0
11-22Richmond (56.0)A10A80-56L0%0.0
11-28Clemson (106.0)ACCA62-59L0%0.0
12-1UNC Greensboro (309.0)SCA68-76W100%0.0
12-6William & Mary (93.0)CAAH66-63W100%0.0
12-10Ohio St. (41.0)B10A97-43L0%0.0
12-20James Madison (148.0)CAAA71-80W100%0.0
12-31Coastal Carolina (124.0)BSthH68-83L0%0.0
1-3Winthrop (210.0)BSthA87-90W100%0.0
1-8Charleston Southern (164.0)BSthH72-61W100%0.0
1-10Campbell (323.0)BSthH69-62W100%0.0
1-14Gardner Webb (146.0)BSthA72-84W100%0.0
1-19Longwood (316.0)BSthH72-67W100%0.0
1-22Radford (154.0)BSthA73-66L0%0.0
1-24UNC Asheville (249.0)BSthH72-51W100%0.0
1-26Presbyterian (315.0)BSthA54-63W100%0.0
1-29Liberty (347.0)BSthA53-72W100%0.0
2-3Radford (154.0)BSthH64-67L0%0.0
2-6Coastal Carolina (124.0)BSthA65-60L0%0.0
2-11Winthrop (210.0)BSthH73-72W100%0.0
2-14Campbell (323.0)BSthA51-63W100%0.0
2-18Gardner Webb (146.0)BSthH83-62W100%0.0
2-21Presbyterian (315.0)BSthH67-58W100%0.0
2-26UNC Asheville (249.0)BSthA71-75W100%0.0
2-28Charleston Southern (164.0)BSthA97-93L0%0.0
3-6Gardner Webb (146.0)BSthN71-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

High Point's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


High Point's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  High Point.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
High PointBSth26.4626.4672.3972.3911.8511.85
Gardner WebbBSth6.416.4155.5655.560.710.71
Coastal CarolinaBSth4.724.7266.6766.671.571.57
CampbellBSth4.684.6825.9325.93-2.25-2.25
WinthropBSth4.684.6859.2659.260.870.87
RadfordBSth4.624.6259.2659.260.860.86
UNC AshevilleBSth4.594.5946.1546.15-0.35-0.35
PresbyterianBSth4.534.5323.0823.08-2.44-2.44
Charleston SouthernBSth4.524.5260.0060.000.900.90
LongwoodBSth3.103.1029.0329.03-1.30-1.30
LibertyBSth2.872.8714.8114.81-2.02-2.02
James MadisonCAA2.052.0561.2961.290.460.46
ClemsonACC1.941.9450.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA101.901.9058.0658.060.310.31
UNC GreensboroSC1.881.8827.5927.59-0.84-0.84
Ohio St.B101.881.8868.7568.750.700.70
William & MaryCAA1.871.8762.0762.070.450.45
HawaiiBW1.841.8462.5062.500.460.46
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.841.8438.7138.71-0.42-0.42
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.841.8437.9337.93-0.44-0.44
College of CharlestonCAA0.270.2727.2727.27-0.12-0.12
WoffordSC0.250.2581.2581.250.160.16
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.240.2456.6756.670.030.03
SamfordSC0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.190.1943.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
FurmanSC0.180.1829.0329.03-0.08-0.08
DelawareCAA0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
ElonCAA0.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.170.1767.6567.650.060.06
Florida St.ACC0.150.1551.5251.520.000.00
AuburnSEC0.150.1541.1841.18-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.150.1577.4277.420.080.08
PurdueB100.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.130.136.906.90-0.11-0.11
MississippiSEC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
LSUSEC0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
DavidsonA100.120.1276.6776.670.060.06
ColgatePat0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.120.1268.5768.570.040.04
DrexelCAA0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.090.0931.0331.03-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.090.0991.1891.180.070.07
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Seton HallBE0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
Miami OHMAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
VCUA100.080.0874.2974.290.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Michigan St.B100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.080.0879.3179.310.050.05
UC IrvineBW0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
AmericanPat0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
UABCUSA0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
CornellIvy0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
SienaMAAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
UCLAP120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
SeattleWAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
VirginiaACC0.060.0690.6290.620.050.05
LouisvilleACC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
PittsburghACC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
RutgersB100.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0662.9662.960.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0618.7518.75-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
Cal PolyBW0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
South DakotaSum0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
OhioMAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02