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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


High Point

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:189.2
Current RPI:198
Expected SOS:312
Current SOS:307
Current Record:12-9
Expected Record:16-10
Current Conf Record:8-5
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC RPI:198
Expected OOC SOS:298



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-9165.517.14%
16-10181.837.83%
15-11198.331.92%
14-12216.511.28%
13-13236.51.65%
12-14255.60.17%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for High Point.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Texas Tech (56.7)B12A77-73L0%0.0
11-18Drexel (274.6)CAAA66-75W100%0.0
11-21Western Carolina (223.6)SCH75-69W100%0.0
11-25Georgia (86.1)SECA49-46L0%0.0
11-28Morgan St. (331.7)MEACH82-72W100%0.0
12-2Longwood (320.7)BSthH90-66W100%0.0
12-5Gardner Webb (221.5)BSthA64-66W100%0.0
12-9UNC Greensboro (285.3)SCH90-72W100%0.0
12-16North Carolina St. (119.1)ACCA76-73L0%0.0
12-21William & Mary (50.7)CAAA78-75L0%0.0
12-31Radford (159.1)BSthH77-60W100%0.0
1-2Charleston Southern (274.2)BSthA73-78W100%0.0
1-9Presbyterian (336.0)BSthH82-66W100%0.0
1-14Winthrop (161.3)BSthA86-66L0%0.0
1-16Coastal Carolina (167.8)BSthH68-71L0%0.0
1-20UNC Asheville (150.3)BSthH73-69W100%0.0
1-23Liberty (264.8)BSthA69-67L0%0.0
1-27Campbell (323.3)BSthA63-73W100%0.0
2-3Gardner Webb (221.5)BSthH74-79L0%0.0
2-6Liberty (264.8)BSthH76-80L0%0.0
2-11Coastal Carolina (167.8)BSthA67-68W100%0.0
2-13Charleston Southern (274.2)BSthH0-087%12.3
2-18Longwood (320.7)BSthA0-074%7.0
2-20Radford (159.1)BSthA0-049%-0.2
2-25Winthrop (161.3)BSthH0-068%5.1
2-27Presbyterian (336.0)BSthA0-078%8.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

High Point's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


High Point's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  High Point.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
High PointBSth26.4426.4958.9562.374.736.56
LibertyBSth5.524.9328.5731.64-2.37-1.81
WinthropBSth3.334.9165.0063.591.001.34
Gardner WebbBSth5.524.8942.8644.83-0.79-0.51
Charleston SouthernBSth3.294.8628.5729.58-1.41-1.98
RadfordBSth3.294.8654.5556.320.300.61
LongwoodBSth3.184.8522.7325.49-1.74-2.38
PresbyterianBSth3.294.8525.0026.70-1.65-2.26
Coastal CarolinaBSth5.514.8557.8958.330.870.81
UNC AshevilleBSth3.343.1565.2265.801.020.99
CampbellBSth3.403.1133.3333.36-1.13-1.03
William & MaryCAA2.592.0966.6765.850.860.66
North Carolina St.ACC2.542.0747.8347.25-0.11-0.11
DrexelCAA2.482.0313.6417.02-1.81-1.34
Western CarolinaSC2.532.0333.3335.82-0.84-0.57
UNC GreensboroSC2.542.0227.2729.46-1.15-0.83
GeorgiaSEC2.442.0057.1453.560.350.14
Morgan St.MEAC2.441.9620.0026.86-1.46-0.91
Texas TechB122.381.9259.0953.760.430.14
FurmanSC0.470.3956.0054.430.060.03
VMISC0.430.3219.0519.67-0.26-0.19
WoffordSC0.280.2945.8348.12-0.02-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.430.2960.8758.900.090.05
The CitadelSC0.220.2530.4329.49-0.08-0.10
East Tennessee St.SC0.260.2560.8760.240.060.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.260.2577.2773.930.140.12
ChattanoogaSC0.270.2483.3383.710.180.16
ElonCAA0.210.2150.0050.070.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.210.2172.0071.320.090.09
HamptonMEAC0.170.1859.0961.280.030.04
RichmondA100.160.1756.5255.820.020.02
TowsonCAA0.210.1762.5057.730.050.03
Wake ForestACC0.210.1741.6739.90-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.160.1748.0048.60-0.01-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.170.1528.5733.30-0.07-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.110.1521.7422.42-0.06-0.08
AuburnSEC0.170.1439.1335.45-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.160.1425.0024.93-0.08-0.07
HofstraCAA0.210.1466.6766.770.070.05
ArkansasSEC0.160.1450.0052.940.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.210.1450.0048.130.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.160.1436.3638.97-0.04-0.03
ClemsonACC0.110.1458.3358.400.020.02
MercerSC0.110.1466.6767.110.040.05
SamfordSC0.110.1440.0041.68-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.160.1470.8371.050.060.06
Florida St.ACC0.150.1466.6763.300.050.04
LSUSEC0.210.1462.5059.080.050.02
South CarolinaSEC0.160.1386.9680.420.120.08
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1345.8342.30-0.01-0.02
HawaiiBW0.170.1185.0083.440.120.07
RiderMAAC0.110.1140.0042.04-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.1160.8755.980.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1058.3359.970.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.100.1056.0052.870.010.01
Penn St.B100.100.1050.0046.770.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.110.1052.1754.130.000.01
VirginiaACC0.110.1083.3378.460.070.06
Notre DameACC0.100.1070.8367.930.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.100.1052.0048.920.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.160.1033.3330.28-0.05-0.04
BaylorB120.110.1073.9168.450.050.04
Kansas St.B120.110.1058.3356.290.020.01
North CarolinaACC0.100.1083.3378.380.070.05
NevadaMWC0.110.0857.1455.360.020.01
AkronMAC0.050.0782.6181.140.040.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0742.8641.34-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0724.0024.16-0.03-0.04
MarquetteBE0.060.0764.0057.890.020.01
StanfordP120.050.0747.6244.06-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0773.9176.700.030.04
Wright St.Horz0.050.0754.1753.810.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.0738.1037.67-0.03-0.02
ArmyPat0.100.0754.1754.290.010.01
George WashingtonA100.100.0775.0071.960.050.03
IowaB100.100.0779.1778.880.060.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0714.2924.90-0.07-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.110.0758.3363.180.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.100.0725.0028.15-0.05-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.050.0760.8757.130.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.110.0772.0071.570.050.03
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0766.6765.240.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0714.2920.64-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.050.0731.5831.68-0.02-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0750.0049.320.00-0.00
George MasonA100.050.0733.3333.63-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.100.0730.0029.13-0.04-0.03
MaineAE0.050.0732.0031.16-0.02-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0729.1733.75-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0743.4850.64-0.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0729.1733.11-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.079.0917.14-0.04-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.100.0772.2274.700.050.03
SienaMAAC0.050.0765.3864.970.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.0740.0043.49-0.02-0.01
TulaneAmer0.100.0736.0034.84-0.03-0.02
UMBCAE0.050.0723.0825.87-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.100.0731.8232.68-0.04-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.100.0775.0075.340.050.03
FloridaSEC0.050.0766.6766.320.020.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0762.5058.940.010.01
PittsburghACC0.100.0772.7367.600.050.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0743.4843.77-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.100.0654.1752.000.010.00
Iowa St.B120.100.0670.8367.970.040.02
KansasB120.050.0682.6179.200.030.04
OklahomaB120.050.0686.9682.620.040.04
TCUB120.050.0645.8339.36-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.100.0666.6762.200.030.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0679.1778.100.030.04
DukeACC0.100.0675.0071.840.050.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0437.5042.32-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0416.6719.49-0.04-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0447.6249.39-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.050.0486.9682.160.040.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0331.8236.11-0.02-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0366.6767.670.020.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0331.8230.08-0.02-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0361.9058.170.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.039.0912.26-0.05-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0354.5555.550.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0325.0025.08-0.03-0.02
IllinoisB100.050.0345.8344.07-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0360.8760.670.010.01
IPFWSum0.050.0370.8368.660.020.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0347.8348.57-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.050.0319.0520.30-0.03-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0345.8343.78-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0345.4543.23-0.01-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0368.1867.730.020.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0380.0081.160.030.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0352.1753.440.000.00
NavyPat0.050.0364.0064.460.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0325.0033.23-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.050.0338.8937.69-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0383.3381.280.030.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0330.4328.20-0.02-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0345.8341.63-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0350.0044.650.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.060.0360.8762.520.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0375.0072.610.030.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0347.8350.89-0.000.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0365.3865.510.020.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0326.9228.60-0.02-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0370.8368.080.020.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0386.3684.220.040.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0324.0025.68-0.03-0.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0325.0027.26-0.03-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0345.0049.27-0.01-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0373.9174.640.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0350.0050.500.000.00
UtahP120.050.0370.8368.520.020.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0354.1751.700.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0329.1726.69-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0352.1754.940.000.00
IUPUISum0.050.0338.4638.50-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0379.1775.990.030.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0382.6177.580.030.02
MichiganB100.050.0370.8366.750.020.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0336.3636.29-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0320.0019.73-0.03-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0368.0064.090.000.01