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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


High Point

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:172.0
Current RPI:172
Expected SOS:216
Current SOS:216
Current Record:14-14
Expected Record:14-14
Current Conf Record:12-5
Expected Conf Record:12-5
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-7
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:208
Expected OOC SOS:27



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-14172.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for High Point.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCA82-74L0%0.0
11-16Eastern Kentucky (97.0)OVCA74-67L0%0.0
11-20William & Mary (119.0)CAAA69-80W100%0.0
11-24Wofford (153.0)SCH66-56W100%0.0
12-1Stephen F. Austin (52.0)SlndH68-71L0%0.0
12-5Georgetown (69.0)BEA80-45L0%0.0
12-14James Madison (233.0)CAAH69-84L0%0.0
12-18Morgan St. (225.0)MEACA85-74L0%0.0
12-20Syracuse (16.0)ACCA75-54L0%0.0
12-28Arkansas (77.0)SECA89-48L0%0.0
12-30Wofford (153.0)SCA81-53L0%0.0
1-8Campbell (316.0)BSthA74-71L0%0.0
1-10Radford (240.0)BSthH72-81L0%0.0
1-15Longwood (337.0)BSthH83-75W100%0.0
1-18Liberty (311.0)BSthA70-76W100%0.0
1-22VMI (211.0)BSthA82-80L0%0.0
1-25UNC Asheville (201.0)BSthH78-67W100%0.0
1-28Presbyterian (349.0)BSthA74-81W100%0.0
2-1Winthrop (168.0)BSthH65-64W100%0.0
2-5Coastal Carolina (196.0)BSthA74-77W100%0.0
2-8Gardner Webb (241.0)BSthA80-76L0%0.0
2-15Radford (240.0)BSthA65-72W100%0.0
2-17Charleston Southern (268.0)BSthH76-70W100%0.0
2-19Liberty (311.0)BSthH67-60W100%0.0
2-22Longwood (337.0)BSthA59-85W100%0.0
2-26VMI (211.0)BSthH70-67W100%0.0
2-28Campbell (316.0)BSthH56-53W100%0.0
3-7Winthrop (168.0)BSthN60-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

High Point's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


High Point's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  High Point.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
High PointBSth26.2926.2954.1054.102.152.15
WinthropBSth4.414.4157.1457.140.630.63
LibertyBSth4.384.3829.6329.63-1.78-1.78
VMIBSth4.374.3756.0056.000.520.52
RadfordBSth4.364.3660.7160.710.930.93
LongwoodBSth4.344.3415.3815.38-3.01-3.01
CampbellBSth4.324.3230.7730.77-1.66-1.66
WoffordSC3.723.7259.2659.260.690.69
Gardner WebbBSth2.662.6648.2848.28-0.09-0.09
Coastal CarolinaBSth2.632.6362.0762.070.630.63
UNC AshevilleBSth2.582.5850.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth2.562.5613.7913.79-1.85-1.85
Charleston SouthernBSth2.552.5534.6234.62-0.79-0.79
William & MaryCAA2.032.0363.3363.330.540.54
James MadisonCAA1.961.9633.3333.33-0.65-0.65
UNC GreensboroSC1.911.9135.7135.71-0.54-0.54
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.851.8570.0070.000.740.74
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.811.8192.8692.861.561.56
ArkansasSEC1.791.7964.5264.520.520.52
GeorgetownBE1.791.7953.3353.330.120.12
Morgan St.MEAC1.791.7946.6746.67-0.12-0.12
SyracuseACC1.791.7983.8783.871.211.21
The CitadelSC0.430.4313.7913.79-0.31-0.31
Georgia SouthernSC0.400.4038.7138.71-0.09-0.09
Western CarolinaSC0.340.3451.6151.610.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.340.3423.3323.33-0.18-0.18
HamptonMEAC0.300.3060.0060.000.060.06
Appalachian St.SC0.280.2819.2319.23-0.17-0.17
FurmanSC0.280.2825.9325.93-0.13-0.13
ChattanoogaSC0.270.2751.7251.720.010.01
DelawareCAA0.270.2773.5373.530.130.13
Virginia TechACC0.240.2429.0329.03-0.10-0.10
TowsonCAA0.230.2367.7467.740.080.08
ElonSC0.220.2255.1755.170.020.02
SamfordSC0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
East CarolinaCUSA0.190.1944.8344.83-0.02-0.02
DavidsonSC0.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.180.1868.9768.970.070.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.180.1883.8783.870.120.12
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.180.1825.8125.81-0.09-0.09
North Carolina St.ACC0.180.1861.7661.760.040.04
VCUA100.180.1876.4776.470.090.09
College of CharlestonCAA0.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.150.1551.5251.520.000.00
ClemsonACC0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.08-0.08
St. John'sBE0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
HowardMEAC0.150.1519.3519.35-0.09-0.09
GeorgiaSEC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
MinnesotaB100.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.140.1434.3834.38-0.05-0.05
OhioMAC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1241.1841.18-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.120.1282.3582.350.080.08
DukeACC0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
DrexelCAA0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
HofstraCAA0.120.1230.3030.30-0.05-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0924.0024.00-0.05-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0935.7135.71-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
CornellIvy0.090.093.703.70-0.08-0.08
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
XavierBE0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
KentuckySEC0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
BelmontOVC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.090.0936.3636.36-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
VillanovaBE0.090.0987.5087.500.060.06
Air ForceMWC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Penn St.B100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0661.7661.760.020.02
TCUB120.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0670.3770.370.030.03
Saint LouisA100.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
BaylorB120.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
RutgersAmer0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0616.1316.13-0.04-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
MississippiSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
ButlerBE0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
FIUCUSA0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
OregonP120.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
RichmondA100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
LSUSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
PittsburghACC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
KansasB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02