High Point

Conference:	BSth
Expected RPI:	249.0
Current RPI:	249
Expected SOS:	333
Current SOS:	333
Current Record:	15-13
Expected Record:	15-13
Current Conf Record:	12-5
Expected Conf Record:	12-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-7
Current OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC RPI:	306
Expected OOC SOS:	275

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-13	249.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for High Point.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	NC Greensboro (327.0)	SC	H	81-73	W	100%
11-13	Appalachian St. (265.0)	SC	A	64-86	W	100%
11-17	William & Mary (271.0)	CAA	H	61-83	L	0%
11-25	Indiana St. (74.0)	MVC	A	76-62	L	0%
11-29	Western Michigan (128.0)	MAC	A	54-53	L	0%
12-5	Wake Forest (170.0)	ACC	A	71-60	L	0%
12-16	Western Michigan (128.0)	MAC	H	64-70	L	0%
12-21	Eastern Kentucky (70.0)	OVC	H	70-73	L	0%
12-28	Chattanooga (292.0)	SC	A	68-61	L	0%
12-29	Austin Peay (319.0)	OVC	N	76-74	W	100%
1-5	Winthrop (269.0)	BSth	A	61-74	W	100%
1-9	Radford (316.0)	BSth	A	59-54	L	0%
1-12	Gardner Webb (194.0)	BSth	H	70-64	W	100%
1-16	Liberty (288.0)	BSth	H	77-72	W	100%
1-19	Charleston Southern (189.0)	BSth	A	83-75	L	0%
1-23	Virginia Military Inst (302.0)	BSth	H	96-69	W	100%
1-26	NC Asheville (217.0)	BSth	A	69-58	L	0%
1-30	Longwood (332.0)	BSth	H	88-60	W	100%
2-2	Presbyterian (340.0)	BSth	H	78-68	W	100%
2-6	Campbell (289.0)	BSth	A	52-58	W	100%
2-9	Coastal Carolina (259.0)	BSth	H	74-62	W	100%
2-13	Longwood (332.0)	BSth	A	53-82	W	100%
2-16	Liberty (288.0)	BSth	A	68-73	W	100%
2-19	Virginia Military Inst (302.0)	BSth	A	67-78	W	100%
2-23	Morgan St. (236.0)	MEAC	H	68-75	L	0%
2-27	Radford (316.0)	BSth	H	58-63	L	0%
3-2	Campbell (289.0)	BSth	H	63-62	W	100%
3-7	Liberty (288.0)	BSth	N	60-61	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

High Point's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

High Point's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against High Point.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
High Point	BSth	26.31	26.31	53.79	53.79	1.99	1.99
Liberty	BSth	6.22	6.22	37.93	37.93	-1.50	-1.50
Radford	BSth	4.41	4.41	29.63	29.63	-1.80	-1.80
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	4.40	4.40	42.31	42.31	-0.68	-0.68
Longwood	BSth	4.39	4.39	20.69	20.69	-2.57	-2.57
Campbell	BSth	4.39	4.39	39.29	39.29	-0.94	-0.94
Western Michigan	MAC	3.57	3.57	58.62	58.62	0.62	0.62
Charleston Southern	BSth	2.61	2.61	55.56	55.56	0.29	0.29
Gardner Webb	BSth	2.61	2.61	62.07	62.07	0.63	0.63
Winthrop	BSth	2.55	2.55	40.74	40.74	-0.47	-0.47
Presbyterian	BSth	2.52	2.52	17.86	17.86	-1.62	-1.62
Coastal Carolina	BSth	2.51	2.51	44.00	44.00	-0.30	-0.30
NC Asheville	BSth	2.49	2.49	42.86	42.86	-0.36	-0.36
Appalachian St.	SC	2.00	2.00	46.43	46.43	-0.14	-0.14
Chattanooga	SC	1.97	1.97	34.48	34.48	-0.61	-0.61
NC Greensboro	SC	1.97	1.97	25.00	25.00	-0.98	-0.98
William & Mary	CAA	1.96	1.96	39.29	39.29	-0.42	-0.42
Morgan St.	MEAC	1.93	1.93	51.61	51.61	0.06	0.06
Austin Peay	OVC	1.93	1.93	21.43	21.43	-1.10	-1.10
Wake Forest	ACC	1.91	1.91	40.00	40.00	-0.38	-0.38
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	1.91	1.91	70.00	70.00	0.76	0.76
Indiana St.	MVC	1.82	1.82	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
Western Carolina	SC	0.39	0.39	38.71	38.71	-0.09	-0.09
The Citadel	SC	0.34	0.34	21.43	21.43	-0.19	-0.19
Elon	SC	0.28	0.28	63.33	63.33	0.07	0.07
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.24	0.24	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.22	0.22	72.73	72.73	0.10	0.10
Samford	SC	0.21	0.21	32.26	32.26	-0.08	-0.08
Furman	SC	0.21	0.21	17.24	17.24	-0.14	-0.14
Wofford	SC	0.18	0.18	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.18	0.18	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.18	0.18	31.03	31.03	-0.07	-0.07
Hampton	MEAC	0.18	0.18	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.18	0.18	70.59	70.59	0.07	0.07
Creighton	MVC	0.17	0.17	79.41	79.41	0.10	0.10
Illinois St.	MVC	0.17	0.17	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.17	0.17	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.17	0.17	20.69	20.69	-0.10	-0.10
James Madison	CAA	0.16	0.16	58.82	58.82	0.03	0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.15	0.15	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.15	0.15	16.67	16.67	-0.10	-0.10
Davidson	SC	0.15	0.15	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.15	0.15	37.04	37.04	-0.04	-0.04
Towson	CAA	0.15	0.15	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.15	0.15	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.15	0.15	57.69	57.69	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.15	0.15	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.15	0.15	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Ohio	MAC	0.15	0.15	72.73	72.73	0.07	0.07
Cornell	Ivy	0.15	0.15	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.15	0.15	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.14	0.14	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Georgetown	BE	0.14	0.14	80.65	80.65	0.09	0.09
Iona	MAAC	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Akron	MAC	0.12	0.12	80.65	80.65	0.08	0.08
Georgia Southern	SC	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.12	0.12	10.00	10.00	-0.10	-0.10
Murray St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	65.52	65.52	0.04	0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.12	0.12	20.69	20.69	-0.07	-0.07
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.12	0.12	13.79	13.79	-0.08	-0.08
Toledo	MAC	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.11	0.11	7.14	7.14	-0.10	-0.10
Clemson	ACC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.09	0.09	28.00	28.00	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.09	0.09	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Wichita St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
South Carolina	SEC	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.09	0.09	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.09	0.09	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.09	0.09	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
UC Irvine	BW	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Boston University	AE	0.07	0.07	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Army	Pat	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
George Mason	CAA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	93.75	93.75	0.05	0.05
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Pacific	BW	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01