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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


High Point

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:158.0
Current RPI:158
Expected SOS:293
Current SOS:293
Current Record:18-10
Expected Record:18-10
Current Conf Record:14-6
Expected Conf Record:14-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-3
Current OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC RPI:168
Expected OOC SOS:247



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-10158.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for High Point.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Texas Tech (36.0)B12A77-73L0%0.0
11-18Drexel (247.0)CAAA66-75W100%0.0
11-21Western Carolina (166.0)SCH75-69W100%0.0
11-25Georgia (62.0)SECA49-46L0%0.0
11-28Morgan St. (327.0)MEACH82-72W100%0.0
12-2Longwood (323.0)BSthH90-66W100%0.0
12-5Gardner Webb (210.0)BSthA64-66W100%0.0
12-9UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCH90-72W100%0.0
12-16North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCA76-73L0%0.0
12-21William & Mary (67.0)CAAA78-75L0%0.0
12-31Radford (192.0)BSthH77-60W100%0.0
1-2Charleston Southern (298.0)BSthA73-78W100%0.0
1-9Presbyterian (319.0)BSthH82-66W100%0.0
1-14Winthrop (130.0)BSthA86-66L0%0.0
1-16Coastal Carolina (164.0)BSthH68-71L0%0.0
1-20UNC Asheville (137.0)BSthH73-69W100%0.0
1-23Liberty (264.0)BSthA69-67L0%0.0
1-27Campbell (308.0)BSthA63-73W100%0.0
2-3Gardner Webb (210.0)BSthH74-79L0%0.0
2-6Liberty (264.0)BSthH76-80L0%0.0
2-11Coastal Carolina (164.0)BSthA67-68W100%0.0
2-13Charleston Southern (298.0)BSthH72-50W100%0.0
2-18Longwood (323.0)BSthA80-88W100%0.0
2-20Radford (192.0)BSthA72-75W100%0.0
2-25Winthrop (130.0)BSthH87-85W100%0.0
2-27Presbyterian (319.0)BSthA60-80W100%0.0
3-4Longwood (323.0)BSthN89-78W100%0.0
3-5UNC Asheville (137.0)BSthN69-80L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

High Point's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


High Point's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  High Point.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
High PointBSth26.5426.5466.6766.678.858.85
LongwoodBSth6.366.3625.9325.93-3.06-3.06
UNC AshevilleBSth4.824.8265.5265.521.501.50
WinthropBSth4.814.8170.3770.371.961.96
Gardner WebbBSth4.744.7446.4346.43-0.34-0.34
PresbyterianBSth4.694.6930.7730.77-1.80-1.80
LibertyBSth4.684.6829.6329.63-1.91-1.91
RadfordBSth4.634.6351.8551.850.170.17
Charleston SouthernBSth4.624.6224.0024.00-2.40-2.40
Coastal CarolinaBSth4.594.5958.3358.330.760.76
CampbellBSth2.992.9934.6234.62-0.92-0.92
William & MaryCAA1.931.9360.7160.710.410.41
North Carolina St.ACC1.911.9146.8846.88-0.12-0.12
DrexelCAA1.901.9020.6920.69-1.12-1.12
Western CarolinaSC1.901.9044.8344.83-0.20-0.20
UNC GreensboroSC1.871.8739.2939.29-0.40-0.40
GeorgiaSEC1.851.8558.0658.060.300.30
Morgan St.MEAC1.821.8227.5927.59-0.82-0.82
Texas TechB121.791.7960.0060.000.360.36
FurmanSC0.390.3951.6151.610.010.01
WoffordSC0.280.2843.3343.33-0.04-0.04
VMISC0.280.2822.2222.22-0.15-0.15
College of CharlestonCAA0.250.2553.3353.330.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.240.2465.6265.620.080.08
ChattanoogaSC0.240.2484.3884.380.170.17
ElonCAA0.240.2446.6746.67-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.220.2224.1424.14-0.11-0.11
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.220.2276.6776.670.120.12
James MadisonCAA0.210.2164.5264.520.060.06
RichmondA100.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.180.1866.6766.670.060.06
HofstraCAA0.180.1871.8871.880.080.08
Wake ForestACC0.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
TowsonCAA0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.150.1544.1244.12-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
AuburnSEC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
MercerSC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
SamfordSC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
ClemsonACC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
LSUSEC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
HawaiiBW0.100.1083.3383.330.060.06
RiderMAAC0.100.1039.3939.39-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0965.5265.520.030.03
DartmouthIvy0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Notre DameACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
VirginiaACC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
TCUB120.090.0936.3636.36-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Kansas St.B120.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
NevadaMWC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
AkronMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.030.03
StanfordP120.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
SienaMAAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0635.2935.29-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0662.8662.860.020.02
ArmyPat0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
IowaB100.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
KansasB120.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
OklahomaB120.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
TexasB120.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
PittsburghACC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
FloridaSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
KentuckySEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
MississippiSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
IPFWSum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UtahP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
MichiganB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01