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Through games of Mar 4, 2015.


High Point

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:81.6
Current RPI:82
Expected SOS:209
Current SOS:204
Current Record:19-8
Expected Record:19-8
Current Conf Record:13-5
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Probability of Auto Bid:25.71%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-0
Current OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC RPI:40
Expected OOC SOS:136



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-881.6100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for High Point.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Cal St. Bakersfield (296.5)WACN99-100W100%0.0
11-15Arkansas Pine Bluff (306.9)SWACN74-62W100%0.0
11-18Hawaii (175.5)BWA54-62W100%0.0
11-22Richmond (57.6)A10A80-56L0%0.0
11-28Clemson (93.0)ACCA62-59L0%0.0
12-1UNC Greensboro (316.1)SCA68-76W100%0.0
12-6William & Mary (99.3)CAAH66-63W100%0.0
12-10Ohio St. (34.2)B10A97-43L0%0.0
12-20James Madison (136.6)CAAA71-80W100%0.0
12-31Coastal Carolina (148.9)BSthH68-83L0%0.0
1-3Winthrop (220.2)BSthA87-90W100%0.0
1-8Charleston Southern (137.9)BSthH72-61W100%0.0
1-10Campbell (321.6)BSthH69-62W100%0.0
1-14Gardner Webb (159.0)BSthA72-84W100%0.0
1-19Longwood (325.8)BSthH72-67W100%0.0
1-22Radford (136.2)BSthA73-66L0%0.0
1-24UNC Asheville (247.9)BSthH72-51W100%0.0
1-26Presbyterian (315.8)BSthA54-63W100%0.0
1-29Liberty (347.1)BSthA53-72W100%0.0
2-3Radford (136.2)BSthH64-67L0%0.0
2-6Coastal Carolina (148.9)BSthA65-60L0%0.0
2-11Winthrop (220.2)BSthH73-72W100%0.0
2-14Campbell (321.6)BSthA51-63W100%0.0
2-18Gardner Webb (159.0)BSthH83-62W100%0.0
2-21Presbyterian (315.8)BSthH67-58W100%0.0
2-26UNC Asheville (247.9)BSthA71-75W100%0.0
2-28Charleston Southern (137.9)BSthA97-93L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

High Point's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


High Point's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  High Point.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
High PointBSth26.4426.4375.1975.1913.3213.32
CampbellBSth4.824.8225.9325.93-2.32-2.32
Gardner WebbBSth4.784.7857.6957.690.740.74
PresbyterianBSth4.724.7223.0823.08-2.54-2.54
RadfordBSth4.714.7161.5461.541.091.09
UNC AshevilleBSth4.684.6848.0048.00-0.19-0.19
WinthropBSth4.674.6758.3358.330.780.78
Coastal CarolinaBSth4.644.6462.5062.501.161.16
Charleston SouthernBSth4.644.6462.5062.501.161.16
LongwoodBSth3.073.0727.5927.59-1.38-1.38
LibertyBSth3.013.0114.8114.81-2.11-2.11
James MadisonCAA2.142.1463.3363.330.570.57
ClemsonACC1.991.9953.5752.060.140.08
RichmondA101.981.9858.6259.860.340.39
UNC GreensboroSC1.951.9525.9325.93-0.94-0.94
Ohio St.B101.951.9572.4171.660.870.84
William & MaryCAA1.941.9461.5461.540.450.45
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.921.9136.6737.49-0.51-0.48
HawaiiBW1.921.9160.7160.770.410.41
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.911.9138.4639.27-0.44-0.41
College of CharlestonCAA0.260.2625.8125.81-0.12-0.12
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.260.2657.1457.140.040.04
WoffordSC0.240.2479.3179.310.140.14
East Tennessee St.SC0.210.2151.8551.850.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.210.2142.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.200.2033.3333.08-0.07-0.07
SamfordSC0.200.2040.0040.00-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.200.1934.4834.48-0.06-0.06
AuburnSEC0.170.1737.9337.47-0.04-0.04
FurmanSC0.170.1722.2222.22-0.09-0.09
North Carolina St.ACC0.170.1660.0060.240.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.160.1640.7440.36-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.140.147.417.65-0.12-0.12
MississippiSEC0.140.1466.6766.650.050.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.1425.9327.43-0.07-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.1428.5728.70-0.06-0.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.140.1434.4834.48-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.140.1468.9768.970.050.05
Florida St.ACC0.140.1350.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.130.1378.5779.290.080.08
Wake ForestACC0.130.1343.3343.11-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.1325.0024.21-0.07-0.07
DrexelCAA0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
TowsonCAA0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.130.1370.0069.450.050.05
PurdueB100.130.1363.3363.340.030.03
ColgatePat0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.130.1276.9276.660.070.07
Sacred HeartNEC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.100.1083.3382.790.070.07
Wright St.Horz0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1048.1548.24-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.100.1090.0088.620.080.07
LSUSEC0.100.1070.0068.640.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1059.2659.260.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.090.0941.3841.54-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.0942.8643.44-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.090.0963.3362.750.030.02
UC RiversideBW0.100.0946.1544.67-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.090.0963.3363.730.020.02
IowaB100.090.0966.6767.370.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0955.5656.070.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0942.8645.17-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.090.0944.4443.51-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0782.7681.940.050.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0760.0059.390.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0728.5730.86-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0744.8346.90-0.01-0.00
UABCUSA0.070.0753.5754.420.000.01
AmericanPat0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP120.070.0789.6689.950.050.05
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0718.5217.90-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.070.0744.4444.55-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0767.8668.400.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0750.0050.330.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0724.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0775.8676.590.030.04
MercerSC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0764.2965.480.020.02
SeattleWAC0.070.0748.0047.71-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.070.0755.1753.880.010.01
SienaMAAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.070.0756.6756.090.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0753.8556.030.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.070.0723.0823.57-0.04-0.03
The CitadelSC0.070.0730.7730.77-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.070.0739.2940.13-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0730.7731.10-0.01-0.03
VMISC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0653.8553.590.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0683.3383.560.020.04
Ball St.MAC0.060.0622.2223.21-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.060.0676.6775.470.030.03
PittsburghACC0.060.0660.0059.680.010.01
RutgersB100.060.0633.3332.69-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.060.0696.5595.350.060.06
Cal PolyBW0.060.0644.0043.19-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0625.9325.33-0.02-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0624.1423.74-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.060.0628.5727.75-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0642.8645.04-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.060.0646.4347.82-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.060.0644.8344.45-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.060.0650.0049.040.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.060.0657.1458.000.010.01
UC DavisBW0.060.0680.0079.440.040.04
UC IrvineBW0.060.0657.6958.370.010.01
VCUA100.060.0672.4172.060.030.03
Michigan St.B100.060.0666.6766.280.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0682.1482.140.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0628.0029.85-0.03-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0660.8761.600.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0615.3814.76-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.060.000.74-0.06-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0634.4836.60-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0620.0020.58-0.02-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0658.6260.320.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0350.0048.490.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0332.0031.14-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.030.0358.6255.600.010.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0346.4345.05-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0315.3816.33-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0324.1423.68-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0350.0049.000.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0346.1547.66-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.8676.590.020.02
South DakotaSum0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0360.7160.060.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0379.3178.180.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0337.9338.79-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0346.1547.13-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.033.574.55-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.030.0363.3363.690.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0325.9325.08-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0360.0059.110.010.01
UMBCAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0346.4346.74-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.030.0379.3178.690.020.02
DuquesneA100.030.0337.0436.25-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0329.6329.22-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0363.3362.470.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0350.0049.650.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.030.0337.9339.05-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0356.6755.630.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0357.1456.730.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0357.1457.240.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.0090.000.020.02
NorthwesternB100.030.0350.0048.760.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.3770.990.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0344.8343.74-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0334.4833.48-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0325.9327.35-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0389.6689.660.030.02
WisconsinB100.000.0389.6688.010.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0326.9225.63-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0358.6257.940.010.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0376.0075.240.020.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0337.9338.64-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0332.1432.89-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0330.7731.71-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0364.2961.970.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0343.3342.03-0.00-0.00