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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Eastern Illinois

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:265.0
Current RPI:265
Expected SOS:321
Current SOS:321
Current Record:12-15
Expected Record:12-15
Current Conf Record:6-10
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-9
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:204
Expected OOC SOS:325



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-15265.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Troy (147.0)SBA70-67L0%0.0
11-17Saint Louis (238.0)A10A74-69L0%0.0
11-19Western Illinois (325.0)SumH73-64W100%0.0
11-21Troy (147.0)SBH71-67W100%0.0
11-26South Alabama (231.0)SBH72-62W100%0.0
11-29Bradley (220.0)MVCH83-87L0%0.0
12-4Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzA76-90W100%0.0
12-7Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzA80-70L0%0.0
12-10Western Illinois (325.0)SumA49-63W100%0.0
12-17Missouri (257.0)SECA64-67W100%0.0
12-21Indiana St. (234.0)MVCA88-85L0%0.0
12-31Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCH56-57L0%0.0
1-5Morehead St. (200.0)OVCA85-75L0%0.0
1-7Eastern Kentucky (247.0)OVCA60-74W100%0.0
1-12Murray St. (230.0)OVCH72-83L0%0.0
1-14Austin Peay (261.0)OVCH84-92L0%0.0
1-19Tennessee Martin (164.0)OVCA82-71L0%0.0
1-21Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCA83-71L0%0.0
1-25Belmont (61.0)OVCH64-77L0%0.0
1-28SIU Edwardsville (333.0)OVCH75-60W100%0.0
2-2Tennessee St. (162.0)OVCA67-77W100%0.0
2-4Tennessee Tech (277.0)OVCH68-87L0%0.0
2-9Tennessee Martin (164.0)OVCH81-71W100%0.0
2-11Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCH86-80W100%0.0
2-16Austin Peay (261.0)OVCA85-80L0%0.0
2-18Murray St. (230.0)OVCA65-82W100%0.0
2-25SIU Edwardsville (333.0)OVCA78-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern IllinoisOVC26.2726.2746.5146.51-1.83-1.83
Southeast Missouri St.OVC4.594.5941.3841.38-0.79-0.79
Murray St.OVC4.524.5244.8344.83-0.47-0.47
Tennessee MartinOVC4.494.4962.0762.071.081.08
Austin PeayOVC4.424.4226.9226.92-2.04-2.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC4.414.4115.3815.38-3.06-3.06
TroySB3.773.7759.3859.380.710.71
Western IllinoisSum3.763.7625.0025.00-1.88-1.88
Jacksonville St.OVC2.642.6454.8454.840.260.26
Morehead St.OVC2.572.5740.7440.74-0.48-0.48
Tennessee TechOVC2.552.5531.0331.03-0.97-0.97
Tennessee St.OVC2.542.5455.5655.560.280.28
BelmontOVC2.512.5176.9276.921.351.35
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.482.4835.7135.71-0.71-0.71
Northern KentuckyHorz2.072.0767.7467.740.730.73
BradleyMVC1.971.9735.4835.48-0.57-0.57
South AlabamaSB1.961.9641.3841.38-0.34-0.34
Saint LouisA101.921.9234.3834.38-0.60-0.60
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.911.9143.3343.33-0.25-0.25
Indiana St.MVC1.911.9131.0331.03-0.72-0.72
MissouriSEC1.851.8525.8125.81-0.90-0.90
Southern IllinoisMVC0.330.3350.0050.000.000.00
LipscombASun0.320.3256.6756.670.040.04
EvansvilleMVC0.310.3145.1645.16-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.300.3061.2961.290.070.07
Texas St.SB0.290.2958.0658.060.050.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.280.2829.4129.41-0.12-0.12
Fort WayneSum0.270.2757.1457.140.040.04
Green BayHorz0.270.2755.1755.170.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.270.2710.3410.34-0.22-0.22
Missouri St.MVC0.270.2750.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC0.270.2760.6160.610.060.06
Georgia St.SB0.260.2660.0060.000.050.05
IUPUISum0.240.2440.0040.00-0.05-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.240.2481.2581.250.150.15
Miami OHMAC0.230.2330.0030.00-0.09-0.09
Georgia SouthernSB0.230.2353.3353.330.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.220.2246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.210.2164.5264.520.060.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.210.2126.6726.67-0.10-0.10
Wright St.Horz0.210.2160.0060.000.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.200.206.906.90-0.18-0.18
South Dakota St.Sum0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.200.2074.1974.190.100.10
IndianaB100.190.1954.5554.550.020.02
UMKCWAC0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.180.1834.3834.38-0.06-0.06
DetroitHorz0.180.1823.3323.33-0.09-0.09
Wichita St.MVC0.180.1887.8887.880.130.13
DenverSum0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
Little RockSB0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.160.1687.8887.880.120.12
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
DrakeMVC0.150.1520.6920.69-0.09-0.09
ValparaisoHorz0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
DuquesneA100.140.1431.2531.25-0.05-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1460.7160.710.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.140.1421.4321.43-0.08-0.08
Appalachian St.SB0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.130.1328.5728.57-0.05-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
DelawareCAA0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.120.1276.6776.670.070.07
HawaiiBW0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
AuburnSEC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
IllinoisB100.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
OaklandHorz0.120.1273.3373.330.050.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Coastal CarolinaSB0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
CornellIvy0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
PurdueB100.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Kansas St.B120.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
StetsonASun0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
WoffordSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
KentuckySEC0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
SamfordSC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
George MasonA100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
AmericanPat0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.070.0761.2961.290.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
DavidsonA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
George WashingtonA100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
La SalleA100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
ButlerBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02