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Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


Eastern Illinois

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:263.1
Current RPI:222
Expected SOS:227
Current SOS:52
Current Record:0-4
Expected Record:9-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-7
Current OOC Record:0-4
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:291
Expected OOC SOS:154



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-9124.10.07%
16-10127.90.16%
15-11147.00.68%
14-12165.21.67%
13-13186.94.79%
12-14207.68.98%
11-15231.013.23%
10-16253.817.35%
9-17275.118.05%
8-18292.915.58%
7-19309.410.44%
6-20320.85.35%
5-21330.62.60%
4-22338.30.84%
3-23345.20.17%
2-24348.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Missouri St. (155.8)MVCA64-53L0%0.0
11-20UC Davis (207.3)BWH61-63L0%0.0
11-23Cincinnati (67.9)AmerA54-49L0%0.0
11-25Creighton (67.3)BEA75-53L0%0.0
11-28North Carolina Central (170.9)MEACN0-029%-6.5
12-3Ball St. (177.2)MACH0-047%-1.0
12-9UC Davis (207.3)BWA0-030%-6.4
12-13Northern Illinois (203.2)MACH0-051%0.3
12-20Indiana St. (203.3)MVCA0-031%-6.1
12-23Cleveland St. (149.2)HorzA0-018%-11.2
1-1Tennessee Tech (271.7)OVCH0-066%4.9
1-3Jacksonville St. (286.9)OVCH0-074%7.6
1-7Tennessee St. (306.9)OVCA0-053%0.9
1-10Belmont (68.0)OVCH0-022%-9.2
1-15Eastern Kentucky (161.2)OVCA0-025%-8.2
1-17Morehead St. (135.8)OVCA0-017%-11.5
1-22Murray St. (129.2)OVCH0-032%-5.6
1-24Austin Peay (269.9)OVCH0-062%3.6
1-29Tennessee Martin (269.5)OVCA0-045%-1.4
1-31SIU Edwardsville (304.4)OVCH0-070%6.2
2-7Southeast Missouri St. (260.8)OVCA0-036%-4.4
2-12Austin Peay (269.9)OVCA0-038%-3.5
2-14SIU Edwardsville (304.4)OVCA0-047%-1.0
2-19Tennessee Martin (269.5)OVCH0-068%5.7
2-21Southeast Missouri St. (260.8)OVCH0-059%2.8
2-26Murray St. (129.2)OVCA0-014%-12.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern IllinoisOVC31.9826.340.0036.77-31.98-6.97
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.004.6625.0042.52-0.00-0.70
Austin PeayOVC0.004.6620.0038.15-0.00-1.10
Murray St.OVC0.004.6333.3366.86-0.001.56
Tennessee MartinOVC0.004.6366.6741.040.00-0.83
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.004.620.0032.70-0.00-1.60
UC DavisBW12.503.85100.0050.0112.500.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.002.6625.0031.37-0.00-0.99
Morehead St.OVC1.562.6633.3357.93-0.520.42
BelmontOVC0.002.6280.0075.470.001.34
Tennessee St.OVC0.002.620.0024.28-0.00-1.35
Tennessee TechOVC0.002.6250.0037.660.00-0.65
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.002.62100.0056.360.000.33
Indiana St.MVC0.002.1060.0039.340.00-0.45
Missouri St.MVC12.502.060.0046.22-12.50-0.16
Ball St.MAC0.002.0333.3346.26-0.00-0.15
CincinnatiAmer12.501.99100.0060.6912.500.43
Northern IllinoisMAC0.001.9950.0047.640.00-0.09
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.811.990.0067.68-2.810.70
CreightonBE12.501.96100.0060.1712.500.40
Cleveland St.Horz0.001.9625.0048.36-0.00-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.5040.0047.94-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.2850.0064.460.000.08
LipscombASun0.000.280.0043.66-0.00-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.2475.0069.010.000.09
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.24100.0059.990.000.05
Central MichiganMAC0.000.21100.0055.370.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.2125.0023.91-0.00-0.11
ValparaisoHorz0.000.2075.0056.110.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.2080.0071.410.000.09
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1820.0031.24-0.00-0.07
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1840.0033.19-0.00-0.06
UC RiversideBW0.000.180.0023.83-0.00-0.09
MississippiSEC0.000.1775.0053.040.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1740.0045.07-0.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.170.0032.17-0.00-0.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.17100.0052.530.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.1740.0060.45-0.000.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1766.6750.170.000.00
XavierBE0.000.16100.0078.730.000.09
PortlandWCC0.000.15100.0051.100.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1420.0034.53-0.00-0.04
IUPUISum0.000.1440.0030.22-0.00-0.06
Cal PolyBW0.000.1433.3334.34-0.00-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1440.0037.90-0.00-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1433.3337.74-0.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.000.1471.4356.020.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1440.0054.55-0.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.1433.3366.19-0.000.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.1433.3364.43-0.000.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1466.6758.150.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.1416.6745.35-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.1450.0031.400.00-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1450.0042.050.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.1440.0051.36-0.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.14100.0077.870.000.08
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1420.0035.95-0.00-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.000.14100.0083.180.000.09
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1420.0031.46-0.00-0.05
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1450.0048.100.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd1.250.140.0022.17-1.25-0.08
MarquetteBE0.000.1460.0039.990.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.1475.0052.330.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.1350.0048.990.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.1366.6760.700.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.1175.0046.860.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1114.2930.86-0.00-0.04
Chicago St.WAC1.250.110.0018.96-1.25-0.07
BrownIvy0.000.1116.6730.56-0.00-0.04
IdahoBSky0.000.1133.3348.86-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.11100.0067.700.000.04
LongwoodBSth0.000.1120.0022.33-0.00-0.06
Air ForceMWC0.000.1033.3345.53-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.100.0051.90-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1025.0039.34-0.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.100.0023.49-0.00-0.06
Kent St.MAC0.000.1075.0066.230.000.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.1040.0026.71-0.00-0.05
OhioMAC0.000.1066.6752.280.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.1060.0055.660.000.01
VCUA100.000.1080.0073.390.000.05
Green BayHorz0.000.1075.0078.500.000.06
MarshallCUSA0.000.1050.0045.460.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.1016.6726.26-0.00-0.05
DePaulBE0.000.1066.6725.500.00-0.05
TulaneAmer0.000.1066.6739.850.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.1033.3360.46-0.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.080.0035.96-0.00-0.02
IPFWSum0.000.0866.6762.480.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.080.0028.59-0.00-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.000.08100.0057.180.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.080.0019.02-0.00-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.070.0028.02-0.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.070.0036.81-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.070.0015.46-0.00-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.000.07100.0079.690.000.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.070.0036.05-0.00-0.02
FurmanSC2.080.0725.0027.48-1.04-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0750.0025.280.00-0.04
MissouriSEC0.000.0740.0036.39-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0740.0038.51-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.000.0733.3335.99-0.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0760.0050.240.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.070.0017.77-0.00-0.05
SeattleWAC0.000.0725.0045.33-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.070.0044.27-0.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC2.080.0760.0055.000.420.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0775.0050.750.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0725.0022.65-0.00-0.04
AkronMAC0.000.0760.0066.680.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.070.0033.90-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0775.0064.570.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0766.6746.480.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0720.0042.43-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0036.65-0.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0780.0079.440.000.04
VirginiaACC0.000.07100.0073.330.000.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0783.3384.390.000.05
DetroitHorz0.000.0760.0059.160.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.07100.0078.390.000.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0750.0040.660.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0675.0069.780.000.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0625.0035.86-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0680.0063.370.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0065.930.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0063.120.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0065.590.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0056.410.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0660.0050.480.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.0666.6741.780.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0075.980.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0425.0039.20-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0425.0045.04-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0420.0043.38-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.04100.0071.310.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0416.6739.60-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0425.0047.85-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0480.0074.090.000.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0466.6751.540.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.0450.0067.630.000.01
Colorado St.MWC2.080.04100.0069.612.080.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.040.0039.39-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.04100.0089.470.000.03
Miami FLACC0.000.04100.0078.880.000.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.040.0016.54-0.00-0.02
Texas TechB122.080.0475.0045.181.04-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0380.0058.550.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0340.0054.85-0.000.00
DenverSum0.000.0350.0060.380.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0340.0032.81-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0020.98-0.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.0366.6765.220.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0380.0046.880.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0333.3329.78-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.030.0019.84-0.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0383.3369.110.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0320.0040.88-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0058.380.000.01
USCP120.000.0350.0029.750.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0375.0073.700.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0053.730.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0063.05-0.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0366.6759.540.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0025.17-0.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0072.400.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0074.590.000.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0350.0059.430.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0320.0037.96-0.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0325.0053.73-0.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0051.700.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0340.0047.99-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0325.0026.73-0.00-0.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0333.3353.65-0.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0064.840.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0375.0039.180.00-0.01
OklahomaB121.250.0380.0070.540.750.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0071.260.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.030.0038.79-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0375.0055.470.000.00
St. Francis PANEC1.560.0325.0045.71-0.78-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0360.0068.620.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0350.0032.470.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.030.0044.93-0.00-0.00