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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Eastern Illinois

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:266.0
Current RPI:238
Expected SOS:265
Current SOS:177
Current Record:3-6
Expected Record:11-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-6
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:271
Expected OOC SOS:229



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-9141.00.01%
17-10131.60.10%
16-11153.70.43%
15-12170.91.50%
14-13193.04.06%
13-14216.29.00%
12-15239.015.90%
11-16261.119.71%
10-17280.819.40%
9-18297.416.04%
8-19310.68.59%
7-20320.93.99%
6-21329.60.97%
5-22336.40.25%
4-23338.80.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Missouri St. (190.9)MVCA64-53L0%0.0
11-20UC Davis (161.6)BWH61-63L0%0.0
11-23Cincinnati (49.1)AmerA54-49L0%0.0
11-25Creighton (115.6)BEA75-53L0%0.0
11-28North Carolina Central (148.9)MEACN65-40L0%0.0
11-29Southern (308.3)SWACN43-54W100%0.0
12-3Ball St. (228.5)MACH61-54W100%0.0
12-9UC Davis (161.6)BWA80-70L0%0.0
12-13Northern Illinois (269.3)MACH59-55W100%0.0
12-20Indiana St. (249.9)MVCA0-035%-4.5
12-23Cleveland St. (144.9)HorzA0-014%-12.8
1-1Tennessee Tech (202.0)OVCH0-055%1.4
1-3Jacksonville St. (264.1)OVCH0-074%7.5
1-7Tennessee St. (326.5)OVCA0-056%1.8
1-10Belmont (125.7)OVCH0-039%-3.3
1-15Eastern Kentucky (173.8)OVCA0-020%-9.9
1-17Morehead St. (209.5)OVCA0-020%-9.7
1-22Murray St. (160.4)OVCH0-043%-2.2
1-24Austin Peay (300.3)OVCH0-070%6.3
1-29Tennessee Martin (144.5)OVCA0-015%-12.1
1-31SIU Edwardsville (332.6)OVCH0-078%9.2
2-7Southeast Missouri St. (245.0)OVCA0-027%-7.0
2-12Austin Peay (300.3)OVCA0-042%-2.4
2-14SIU Edwardsville (332.6)OVCA0-052%0.5
2-19Tennessee Martin (144.5)OVCH0-039%-3.3
2-21Southeast Missouri St. (245.0)OVCH0-056%1.7
2-26Murray St. (160.4)OVCA0-018%-10.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern IllinoisOVC29.0126.3131.4339.67-10.78-5.43
Austin PeayOVC0.004.4922.2230.00-0.00-1.79
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.354.4844.4446.66-0.04-0.30
Murray St.OVC0.004.4555.5661.180.001.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.004.4562.5066.200.001.44
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.004.440.0022.73-0.00-2.42
UC DavisBW11.113.7080.0057.906.670.59
Jacksonville St.OVC0.002.5655.5639.040.00-0.56
Morehead St.OVC0.312.5518.1844.96-0.20-0.26
Tennessee St.OVC0.002.520.0015.88-0.00-1.72
BelmontOVC0.002.5260.0063.040.000.66
Tennessee TechOVC0.002.5250.0049.780.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.002.5242.8654.70-0.000.24
Indiana St.MVC0.402.0233.3331.71-0.13-0.74
Missouri St.MVC5.561.9828.5737.99-2.38-0.48
Ball St.MAC5.561.9533.3338.32-1.85-0.46
CincinnatiAmer5.861.9275.0068.172.930.70
Northern IllinoisMAC5.561.9260.0033.831.11-0.62
North Carolina CentralMEAC6.121.9137.5068.92-1.530.72
CreightonBE5.861.8970.0049.942.35-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.001.8833.3348.41-0.00-0.06
SouthernSWAC5.561.850.0035.05-5.56-0.55
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.4760.0049.500.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.2666.6764.310.000.08
LipscombASun0.000.2625.0042.64-0.00-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.2375.0067.580.000.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.230.0031.74-0.00-0.08
EvansvilleMVC0.000.2377.7871.110.000.10
MississippiSEC0.910.2370.0052.610.360.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.910.2244.4445.64-0.10-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.2185.7170.350.000.08
ValparaisoHorz0.400.2080.0069.620.240.08
DrakeMVC0.000.2020.0019.99-0.00-0.12
ButlerBE0.000.1980.0072.550.000.09
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1720.0034.08-0.00-0.05
UC RiversideBW0.000.1742.8643.10-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.1766.6754.830.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1718.1828.02-0.00-0.07
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1771.4363.410.000.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1755.5649.500.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.1660.0059.420.000.03
MemphisAmer0.310.1655.5659.990.030.03
XavierBE0.000.1680.0070.960.000.07
PortlandWCC0.000.1466.6748.410.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1433.3334.28-0.00-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.000.1442.8638.75-0.00-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1436.3638.88-0.00-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1420.0028.20-0.00-0.06
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1440.0050.07-0.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.1437.5046.78-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.1437.5064.43-0.000.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1311.1144.04-0.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.400.1320.0026.33-0.24-0.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1371.4363.890.000.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1318.1821.30-0.00-0.08
North FloridaASun0.000.1344.4456.91-0.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1362.5054.980.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.1340.0050.32-0.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.460.1310.0018.01-0.37-0.08
Central ArkansasSlnd0.250.130.0017.51-0.25-0.08
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.130.0028.26-0.00-0.06
BradleyMVC0.000.1333.3332.09-0.00-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1371.4359.920.000.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1390.0078.050.000.07
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1387.5085.320.000.09
Wright St.Horz0.000.1360.0057.600.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.1355.5647.870.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.560.1366.6743.780.19-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.1371.4348.860.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.350.1287.5054.790.260.01
Saint LouisA100.000.1160.0033.870.00-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.250.100.0011.40-0.25-0.08
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.310.1041.6744.33-0.05-0.01
IdahoBSky1.260.1037.5049.83-0.31-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.1020.0026.57-0.00-0.05
Washington St.P120.350.1040.0028.86-0.07-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.000.1057.1461.670.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1028.5757.26-0.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1025.0033.17-0.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.100.008.63-0.00-0.08
Kent St.MAC0.000.1071.4361.370.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.1030.0028.50-0.00-0.04
OhioMAC0.000.1042.8638.11-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1018.1844.62-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.1040.0033.79-0.00-0.03
IllinoisB100.000.1072.7365.930.000.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.400.100.008.88-0.40-0.08
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1033.3362.92-0.000.02
Green BayHorz0.000.1075.0078.480.000.05
MarshallCUSA0.000.1025.0038.92-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.1030.0031.57-0.00-0.04
VCUA100.000.0970.0071.420.000.04
DePaulBE0.460.0960.0034.110.09-0.03
TulsaAmer0.600.0960.0056.800.120.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0725.0044.59-0.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0757.1456.900.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0750.0041.830.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0777.7871.960.000.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0733.3345.50-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.070.0014.79-0.00-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0012.36-0.00-0.05
FurmanSC0.790.0725.0029.59-0.40-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0725.0023.43-0.00-0.04
MissouriSEC0.000.0744.4431.58-0.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.070.0023.15-0.00-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.0754.5557.300.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.790.070.007.84-0.79-0.06
SeattleWAC0.000.0737.5046.50-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0720.0029.81-0.00-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.790.0755.5650.970.090.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.790.0733.3340.31-0.26-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.660.0740.0050.78-0.130.00
AkronMAC0.000.0760.0056.560.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0775.0069.120.000.03
Oral RobertsSum0.350.0744.4445.59-0.04-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0733.3331.58-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0766.6777.690.000.04
TroySB0.000.0733.3339.46-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.0644.4447.53-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0046.150.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0622.2241.92-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0620.0038.24-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0644.4448.88-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6772.340.000.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.350.0672.7367.750.160.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0085.330.000.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0039.41-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0611.1144.62-0.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0085.310.000.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0645.4544.07-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.310.0670.0072.830.120.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0650.0057.510.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0666.6759.460.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0672.7353.260.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0690.0067.260.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0670.0071.330.000.03
St. John'sBE0.000.0687.5065.040.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.0663.6455.600.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0655.5634.940.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0082.080.000.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0637.5038.60-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6767.300.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0340.0046.73-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0350.0052.710.000.00
HowardMEAC0.310.0330.0043.91-0.12-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0094.790.000.03
MarylandB100.310.0390.9167.660.250.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0390.0075.520.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0318.1835.99-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0350.0056.340.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.310.0370.0071.630.120.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0316.6727.56-0.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6754.660.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.350.0342.8638.26-0.05-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0344.4451.58-0.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.350.03100.0078.050.350.02
DenverSum0.000.0350.0054.230.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0344.4439.74-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.460.0372.7362.590.210.01
James MadisonCAA0.400.0370.0060.790.160.01
MaineAE0.460.0311.1121.08-0.36-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0390.9171.890.000.01
Texas TechB120.350.0388.8955.910.270.00
USCP120.000.0360.0036.120.00-0.01
UtahP120.400.0377.7879.480.220.02
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0065.400.000.01
BaylorB120.000.0390.0073.870.000.02
Iowa St.B120.350.0388.8963.800.270.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0310.0018.58-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0336.3633.67-0.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.350.0377.7864.730.190.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0390.0084.680.000.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0336.3647.13-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0350.0053.850.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0322.2240.44-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0066.180.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0330.0037.28-0.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0314.2945.19-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0050.750.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0375.0060.400.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0320.0041.46-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0337.5031.95-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0328.5747.31-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0377.7873.370.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0381.8264.110.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.79-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.250.0377.7867.290.140.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.250.0371.4357.100.110.00
South DakotaSum0.250.0327.2738.97-0.11-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0344.4444.78-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.310.0350.0062.270.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.310.0333.3354.74-0.100.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0337.5041.20-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0314.2933.54-0.00-0.01