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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Eastern Illinois

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:291.0
Current RPI:291
Expected SOS:276
Current SOS:276
Current Record:9-19
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:7-10
Expected Conf Record:7-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-6
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:303
Expected OOC SOS:210



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-19291.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Northwestern (123.0)B10A72-55L0%0.0
11-16UIC (315.0)HorzA66-86W100%0.0
11-20Purdue (145.0)B10A83-55L0%0.0
11-27IPFW (115.0)SumH65-71L0%0.0
11-30Western Kentucky (125.0)SBA68-53L0%0.0
12-4Western Illinois (290.0)SumA60-32L0%0.0
12-7Indiana St. (71.0)MVCH48-66L0%0.0
12-19Wright St. (173.0)HorzA70-43L0%0.0
12-21IPFW (115.0)SumA86-65L0%0.0
12-28Tennessee St. (300.0)OVCH70-69W100%0.0
1-2Eastern Kentucky (97.0)OVCH81-100L0%0.0
1-4Morehead St. (141.0)OVCH77-85L0%0.0
1-9Tennessee Tech (215.0)OVCA81-69L0%0.0
1-11Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCA48-56W100%0.0
1-16Murray St. (142.0)OVCH66-70L0%0.0
1-18Austin Peay (305.0)OVCH67-64W100%0.0
1-23Tennessee Martin (332.0)OVCA84-77L0%0.0
1-25Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCA74-77W100%0.0
1-28Cleveland St. (91.0)HorzH68-82L0%0.0
2-1SIU Edwardsville (320.0)OVCH76-70W100%0.0
2-6Tennessee Martin (332.0)OVCH91-79W100%0.0
2-8Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCH68-74L0%0.0
2-13Austin Peay (305.0)OVCA88-83L0%0.0
2-15Murray St. (142.0)OVCA72-60L0%0.0
2-20Belmont (57.0)OVCA82-63L0%0.0
2-24Chicago St. (259.0)WACH84-62W100%0.0
3-1SIU Edwardsville (320.0)OVCA74-78W100%0.0
3-5Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCN79-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern IllinoisOVC26.3326.3333.0833.08-8.91-8.91
Southeast Missouri St.OVC6.106.1051.8551.850.230.23
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC4.434.4333.3333.33-1.48-1.48
Murray St.OVC4.364.3656.0056.000.520.52
Tennessee MartinOVC4.314.3118.5218.52-2.71-2.71
Austin PeayOVC4.304.3034.6234.62-1.32-1.32
IPFWSum3.763.7665.5265.521.171.17
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.662.6670.0070.001.071.07
Tennessee TechOVC2.572.5746.6746.67-0.17-0.17
BelmontOVC2.542.5470.9770.971.061.06
Morehead St.OVC2.512.5156.6756.670.330.33
Jacksonville St.OVC2.452.4528.5728.57-1.05-1.05
Tennessee St.OVC2.422.4214.2914.29-1.73-1.73
UICHorz2.022.0214.2914.29-1.44-1.44
Wright St.Horz1.971.9754.8454.840.190.19
Cleveland St.Horz1.931.9362.0762.070.470.47
Western IllinoisSum1.901.9023.0823.08-1.02-1.02
Chicago St.WAC1.881.8837.9337.93-0.45-0.45
NorthwesternB101.871.8740.6240.62-0.35-0.35
Western KentuckySB1.851.8560.0060.000.370.37
Indiana St.MVC1.841.8466.6766.670.610.61
PurdueB101.841.8445.1645.16-0.18-0.18
IUPUISum0.470.4710.3410.34-0.38-0.38
Southern IllinoisMVC0.340.3440.6240.62-0.06-0.06
LipscombASun0.310.3148.2848.28-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.300.3057.1457.140.040.04
ValparaisoHorz0.270.2750.0050.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.270.2741.3841.38-0.05-0.05
UMKCWAC0.270.2734.4834.48-0.08-0.08
North Dakota St.Sum0.240.2478.5778.570.140.14
Green BayHorz0.240.2477.7877.780.130.13
MilwaukeeHorz0.230.2360.6160.610.050.05
East Tennessee St.ASun0.210.2153.1253.120.010.01
South DakotaSum0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
DenverSum0.210.2150.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.210.2129.0329.03-0.09-0.09
Northern KentuckyASun0.210.2130.0030.00-0.08-0.08
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.210.2125.8125.81-0.10-0.10
OaklandHorz0.200.2035.4835.48-0.06-0.06
IllinoisB100.200.2057.5857.580.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.190.1927.5927.59-0.08-0.08
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.180.1830.7730.77-0.07-0.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.180.1848.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.180.1880.6580.650.110.11
DetroitHorz0.180.1836.6736.67-0.05-0.05
BradleyMVC0.180.1837.5037.50-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
MemphisAmer0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
Ball St.MAC0.150.1510.7110.71-0.12-0.12
Missouri St.MVC0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Texas St.SB0.150.1520.6920.69-0.09-0.09
Wichita St.MVC0.150.15100.00100.000.150.15
Illinois St.MVC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
WisconsinB100.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
AuburnSEC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
DaytonA100.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
EvansvilleMVC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Ohio St.B100.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
MinnesotaB100.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
IowaB100.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Michigan St.B100.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
IdahoWAC0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.090.0938.4638.46-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0913.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0953.5753.570.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Penn St.B100.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0624.0024.00-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.05-0.05
UC DavisBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
DrexelCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
KentuckySEC0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0634.6234.62-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
UCLAP120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
SienaMAAC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
BrownIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01