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Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


Eastern Illinois

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:255.4
Current RPI:255
Expected SOS:277
Current SOS:253
Current Record:9-13
Expected Record:12-15
Current Conf Record:7-4
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:334
Expected OOC SOS:242



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-13212.73.94%
13-14231.320.55%
12-15251.735.25%
11-16270.229.09%
10-17286.59.84%
9-18301.01.32%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Indiana (39.1)B10A88-49L0%0.0
11-16Ball St. (156.5)MACA73-56L0%0.0
11-21Western Illinois (259.1)SumH63-83L0%0.0
11-28Green Bay (162.3)HorzH72-81L0%0.0
12-1Indiana St. (146.0)MVCH68-62W100%0.0
12-5Northern Kentucky (245.7)HorzH79-73W100%0.0
12-9Marshall (127.3)CUSAA82-76L0%0.0
12-12Western Illinois (259.1)SumA64-57L0%0.0
12-19Houston (103.1)AmerA81-65L0%0.0
12-21Nebraska Omaha (136.0)SumN80-68L0%0.0
12-22North Carolina Central (321.4)MEACN57-52L0%0.0
12-31Tennessee Tech (97.9)OVCA94-84L0%0.0
1-2Jacksonville St. (304.6)OVCA64-75W100%0.0
1-6Tennessee St. (163.9)OVCH61-66L0%0.0
1-9Belmont (84.1)OVCA85-59L0%0.0
1-14Eastern Kentucky (197.3)OVCH97-85W100%0.0
1-16Morehead St. (161.7)OVCH84-82W100%0.0
1-21Murray St. (186.9)OVCA68-58L0%0.0
1-23Austin Peay (240.7)OVCA86-87W100%0.0
1-28Tennessee Martin (241.8)OVCH82-74W100%0.0
1-30SIU Edwardsville (318.8)OVCA46-60W100%0.0
2-6Southeast Missouri St. (332.1)OVCH78-69W100%0.0
2-10Austin Peay (240.7)OVCH0-061%3.1
2-13SIU Edwardsville (318.8)OVCH0-074%6.9
2-18Tennessee Martin (241.8)OVCA0-033%-4.9
2-20Southeast Missouri St. (332.1)OVCA0-063%3.6
2-25Murray St. (186.9)OVCH0-045%-1.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern IllinoisOVC26.2626.3041.4943.43-4.47-3.46
Austin PeayOVC2.824.4739.1342.11-0.61-0.70
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.824.4618.1821.24-1.80-2.57
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.824.4614.2915.57-2.02-3.07
Murray St.OVC2.824.4642.8647.46-0.40-0.23
Tennessee MartinOVC2.724.4450.0051.360.000.12
Western IllinoisSum4.643.7718.7522.69-2.90-2.06
Morehead St.OVC2.972.6452.3854.370.140.23
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.872.5854.1751.980.240.10
BelmontOVC2.772.5165.2265.350.840.77
Jacksonville St.OVC2.772.5126.0925.22-1.33-1.25
Tennessee St.OVC2.722.5165.0061.190.810.56
Tennessee TechOVC2.772.5166.6765.400.920.77
Green BayHorz2.482.0252.3854.430.120.18
Northern KentuckyHorz2.482.0235.0036.43-0.74-0.55
Nebraska OmahaSum2.532.0154.5554.700.230.19
HoustonAmer2.381.9668.1865.370.870.60
MarshallCUSA2.431.9547.8349.56-0.11-0.02
IndianaB102.371.9578.2673.161.340.90
Ball St.MAC2.371.9161.9057.820.560.30
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.371.9121.0530.50-1.37-0.75
Indiana St.MVC2.321.8854.5553.810.210.14
IPFWSum0.370.4470.8368.570.150.16
Oral RobertsSum0.230.2839.1341.12-0.05-0.05
IUPUISum0.400.2840.0039.79-0.08-0.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.260.2759.0959.640.050.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.200.2772.0070.510.090.11
ValparaisoHorz0.300.2681.8283.040.190.17
EvansvilleMVC0.250.2375.0076.230.120.12
DenverSum0.230.2254.1751.800.020.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.180.2263.6462.150.050.05
South DakotaSum0.230.2241.6741.24-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.180.2277.2776.870.100.12
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.230.215.007.23-0.21-0.18
Illinois St.MVC0.210.2054.1750.940.020.00
Wright St.Horz0.210.2056.5257.000.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.200.2036.8442.90-0.05-0.03
LipscombASun0.250.2025.0029.27-0.12-0.08
Saint LouisA100.200.2036.3633.47-0.05-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.200.1971.4369.420.090.08
Chicago St.WAC0.280.174.357.73-0.25-0.15
IowaB100.180.1782.6180.590.120.10
WisconsinB100.270.1760.8755.840.060.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.260.1759.0959.350.050.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.150.1621.7422.73-0.09-0.09
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.150.1614.2915.45-0.11-0.11
Grand CanyonWAC0.200.1682.6181.140.130.10
Western KentuckyCUSA0.190.1545.4546.27-0.02-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.230.1443.4842.62-0.03-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.1431.8236.15-0.02-0.04
DetroitHorz0.110.1347.6245.85-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1339.1337.73-0.02-0.03
OaklandHorz0.160.1368.0067.980.060.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1330.4332.36-0.04-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1342.8639.19-0.01-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.140.1328.5726.96-0.06-0.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1340.0040.30-0.03-0.02
ToledoMAC0.160.1359.0960.100.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.1376.1972.290.050.06
OhioMAC0.150.1361.9059.450.040.02
WyomingMWC0.200.1343.4842.49-0.03-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.140.1222.7327.19-0.08-0.06
James MadisonCAA0.140.1270.8369.500.060.05
CreightonBE0.170.1162.5059.800.040.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.1129.1733.14-0.05-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.1025.0025.09-0.05-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1038.1037.70-0.02-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.160.1043.4850.66-0.020.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1039.1338.57-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.1040.9140.65-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1052.3847.040.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.1060.8760.780.010.02
PepperdineWCC0.100.1056.5257.280.010.01
ButlerBE0.100.1069.5767.170.040.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.1052.1754.150.010.01
UMKCWAC0.100.1028.5732.70-0.04-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.150.1021.7423.39-0.08-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.100.1031.8230.47-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.100.1066.6763.440.030.03
SamfordSC0.090.1041.6742.60-0.02-0.01
West VirginiaB120.150.1082.6179.560.100.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.0936.8441.40-0.03-0.02
BradleyMVC0.100.0912.5012.85-0.08-0.07
FIUCUSA0.100.0940.9145.29-0.02-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0950.0051.190.000.00
TulsaAmer0.150.0965.2261.430.050.02
MinnesotaB100.140.0926.0927.81-0.07-0.04
AkronMAC0.150.0981.8280.030.100.06
UABCUSA0.090.0982.6179.410.060.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.0720.0022.32-0.07-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.110.0761.9065.300.030.02
DaytonA100.050.0786.3682.380.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0761.9056.690.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0765.2259.020.020.01
StetsonASun0.110.0723.8127.69-0.06-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.050.0765.0069.270.020.03
ChattanoogaSC0.100.0786.9686.690.070.05
CampbellBSth0.050.0728.5729.64-0.02-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.050.0731.5837.72-0.02-0.02
USCP120.050.0778.2673.050.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0771.4368.720.020.02
MichiganB100.100.0669.5766.240.040.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0631.5831.99-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.100.0647.8346.89-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0630.0034.56-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.100.0621.7423.66-0.06-0.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0665.2267.160.010.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0654.1755.070.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0645.8342.26-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0659.0953.170.010.00
TroySB0.050.0623.8126.67-0.02-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0656.5260.010.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0672.7376.360.020.03
WoffordSC0.050.0643.4846.23-0.01-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0670.8370.840.020.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0673.9172.490.020.03
LongwoodBSth0.100.0622.7324.96-0.05-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0663.1658.810.000.01
SMUAmer0.100.0690.9186.160.080.04
South FloridaAmer0.100.0620.0019.67-0.06-0.04
TempleAmer0.050.0663.6459.840.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0633.3332.31-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0652.3845.690.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.100.0633.3335.47-0.03-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0634.7840.93-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0645.8344.12-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.050.0687.5083.700.040.04
NebraskaB100.050.0654.1751.850.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0656.5262.790.010.02
ClemsonACC0.060.0458.3358.410.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.049.0912.25-0.05-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.060.0459.0961.320.010.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0436.3638.93-0.02-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0447.8348.88-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0429.1733.74-0.02-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0419.0525.89-0.00-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0436.3636.08-0.02-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0345.4538.46-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0352.1755.940.000.00
DavidsonA100.050.0360.0057.950.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0315.0018.08-0.04-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0350.0054.210.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0334.7837.17-0.02-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0365.2268.620.020.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0376.1968.210.030.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0328.0030.74-0.02-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0328.5731.26-0.02-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0391.3084.340.040.02
ColoradoP120.050.0369.5765.360.020.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0334.7830.38-0.02-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0340.9143.71-0.01-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0342.8650.39-0.010.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0359.0953.040.010.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0328.5733.37-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0354.1751.640.000.00
BYUWCC0.050.0366.6769.510.020.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0352.1751.630.000.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0365.2264.210.020.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0350.0049.850.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0362.5056.200.010.00
PacificWCC0.050.0325.0028.89-0.03-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0333.3334.19-0.02-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0350.0046.620.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0354.1749.230.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0365.0063.440.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0359.0958.870.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.64-0.03-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0343.4842.00-0.01-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0363.6459.460.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0373.9171.560.020.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0342.8646.36-0.01-0.00
LSUSEC0.050.0365.2260.250.020.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0342.8642.01-0.01-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0327.7834.19-0.02-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0318.1821.06-0.03-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.12-0.04-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0356.5256.630.010.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0315.0015.35-0.03-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0376.1973.410.020.01
DukeACC0.050.0375.0071.700.020.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0317.6529.21-0.03-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0383.3383.030.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0333.3333.02-0.02-0.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0370.8367.730.020.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0358.3354.120.010.00
Penn St.B100.050.0350.0046.710.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0379.1776.510.000.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0328.5729.68-0.02-0.01
RutgersB100.050.0321.7420.35-0.03-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0325.0023.34-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0350.0055.190.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.050.0352.1751.940.000.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0313.6413.62-0.03-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0343.4840.57-0.01-0.01