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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Eastern Illinois

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:271.0
Current RPI:271
Expected SOS:274
Current SOS:274
Current Record:11-17
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:9-8
Expected Conf Record:9-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-5
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:331
Expected OOC SOS:245



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-17271.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Indiana (24.0)B10A88-49L0%0.0
11-16Ball St. (179.0)MACA73-56L0%0.0
11-21Western Illinois (262.0)SumH63-83L0%0.0
11-28Green Bay (112.0)HorzH72-81L0%0.0
12-1Indiana St. (172.0)MVCH68-62W100%0.0
12-5Northern Kentucky (296.0)HorzH79-73W100%0.0
12-9Marshall (128.0)CUSAA82-76L0%0.0
12-12Western Illinois (262.0)SumA64-57L0%0.0
12-19Houston (87.0)AmerA81-65L0%0.0
12-21Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumN80-68L0%0.0
12-22North Carolina Central (310.0)MEACN57-52L0%0.0
12-31Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCA94-84L0%0.0
1-2Jacksonville St. (309.0)OVCA64-75W100%0.0
1-6Tennessee St. (152.0)OVCH61-66L0%0.0
1-9Belmont (98.0)OVCA85-59L0%0.0
1-14Eastern Kentucky (211.0)OVCH97-85W100%0.0
1-16Morehead St. (127.0)OVCH84-82W100%0.0
1-21Murray St. (169.0)OVCA68-58L0%0.0
1-23Austin Peay (184.0)OVCA86-87W100%0.0
1-28Tennessee Martin (213.0)OVCH82-74W100%0.0
1-30SIU Edwardsville (305.0)OVCA46-60W100%0.0
2-6Southeast Missouri St. (342.0)OVCH78-69W100%0.0
2-10Austin Peay (184.0)OVCH70-79L0%0.0
2-13SIU Edwardsville (305.0)OVCH64-72L0%0.0
2-18Tennessee Martin (213.0)OVCA87-84L0%0.0
2-20Southeast Missouri St. (342.0)OVCA68-71W100%0.0
2-25Murray St. (169.0)OVCH85-74W100%0.0
3-2Murray St. (169.0)OVCN78-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern IllinoisOVC26.3626.3638.8938.89-5.86-5.86
Murray St.OVC6.086.0850.0050.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC4.504.5048.3948.39-0.15-0.15
Tennessee MartinOVC4.394.3955.1755.170.450.45
Southeast Missouri St.OVC4.324.3212.0012.00-3.29-3.29
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC4.324.3219.2319.23-2.66-2.66
Western IllinoisSum3.633.6322.7322.73-1.98-1.98
Morehead St.OVC2.692.6960.7160.710.580.58
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.492.4948.2848.28-0.09-0.09
BelmontOVC2.482.4862.0762.070.600.60
Tennessee St.OVC2.482.4862.9662.960.640.64
Tennessee TechOVC2.482.4859.2659.260.460.46
Jacksonville St.OVC2.432.4321.4321.43-1.39-1.39
Green BayHorz1.941.9462.5062.500.490.49
Northern KentuckyHorz1.941.9425.9325.93-0.93-0.93
Nebraska OmahaSum1.931.9353.5753.570.140.14
HoustonAmer1.911.9170.0070.000.760.76
MarshallCUSA1.881.8850.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB101.871.8777.4277.421.031.03
Ball St.MAC1.841.8456.6756.670.250.25
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.841.8432.1432.14-0.66-0.66
Indiana St.MVC1.811.8146.6746.67-0.12-0.12
IPFWSum0.410.4170.9770.970.170.17
MilwaukeeHorz0.330.3358.0658.060.050.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.280.2868.7568.750.100.10
EvansvilleMVC0.270.2772.7372.730.120.12
IUPUISum0.270.2738.7138.71-0.06-0.06
Oral RobertsSum0.270.2741.3841.38-0.05-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.260.2680.0080.000.160.16
Illinois St.MVC0.240.2454.8454.840.020.02
DenverSum0.240.2451.6151.610.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.240.2460.6160.610.050.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.240.2470.9770.970.100.10
Alabama A&MSWAC0.220.2235.7135.71-0.06-0.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.210.2158.0658.060.030.03
South DakotaSum0.210.2140.0040.00-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.210.2177.4277.420.120.12
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.190.1910.7110.71-0.15-0.15
Saint LouisA100.180.1834.3834.38-0.06-0.06
LipscombASun0.180.1832.2632.26-0.06-0.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.170.1723.3323.33-0.09-0.09
IowaB100.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
Chicago St.WAC0.160.163.453.45-0.15-0.15
WisconsinB100.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.150.1518.5218.52-0.10-0.10
Grand CanyonWAC0.150.1579.3179.310.090.09
East Tennessee St.SC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
ToledoMAC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
WyomingMWC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
James MadisonCAA0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
CreightonBE0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
NorthwesternB100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0922.2222.22-0.05-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
West VirginiaB120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
MinnesotaB100.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
BradleyMVC0.090.0912.9012.90-0.06-0.06
TulaneAmer0.090.0935.2935.29-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
SamfordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
FIUCUSA0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
DaytonA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
CampbellBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.060.0637.9337.93-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
USCP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0622.8622.86-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.060.0644.1244.12-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Texas TechB120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
UCFAmer0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
IllinoisB100.060.0644.1244.12-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.060.0647.0647.06-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02