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Through games of Jan 20, 2017.


Eastern Illinois

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:270.0
Current RPI:280
Expected SOS:326
Current SOS:332
Current Record:7-10
Expected Record:12-15
Current Conf Record:1-5
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-8
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:220
Expected OOC SOS:344



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-10190.70.14%
16-11212.31.21%
15-12228.96.44%
14-13245.116.67%
13-14261.225.34%
12-15278.425.47%
11-16295.116.05%
10-17309.06.59%
9-18320.21.85%
8-19330.10.21%
7-20337.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Troy (196.5)SBA70-67L0%0.0
11-17Saint Louis (274.9)A10A74-69L0%0.0
11-19Western Illinois (304.9)SumH73-64W100%0.0
11-21Troy (196.5)SBH71-67W100%0.0
11-26South Alabama (223.7)SBH72-62W100%0.0
11-29Bradley (244.3)MVCH83-87L0%0.0
12-4Illinois Chicago (210.3)HorzA76-90W100%0.0
12-7Northern Kentucky (161.2)HorzA80-70L0%0.0
12-10Western Illinois (304.9)SumA49-63W100%0.0
12-17Missouri (255.5)SECA64-67W100%0.0
12-21Indiana St. (213.4)MVCA88-85L0%0.0
12-31Jacksonville St. (162.5)OVCH56-57L0%0.0
1-5Morehead St. (209.5)OVCA85-75L0%0.0
1-7Eastern Kentucky (263.3)OVCA60-74W100%0.0
1-12Murray St. (193.9)OVCH72-83L0%0.0
1-14Austin Peay (287.4)OVCH84-92L0%0.0
1-19Tennessee Martin (180.0)OVCA82-71L0%0.0
1-21Southeast Missouri St. (307.0)OVCA0-050%0.0
1-25Belmont (84.1)OVCH0-034%-4.5
1-28SIU Edwardsville (320.1)OVCH0-082%10.1
2-2Tennessee St. (134.5)OVCA0-025%-7.7
2-4Tennessee Tech (279.8)OVCH0-070%5.9
2-9Tennessee Martin (180.0)OVCH0-062%3.3
2-11Southeast Missouri St. (307.0)OVCH0-071%6.2
2-16Austin Peay (287.4)OVCA0-059%2.5
2-18Murray St. (193.9)OVCA0-030%-5.9
2-25SIU Edwardsville (320.1)OVCA0-064%3.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern IllinoisOVC26.8126.3444.5848.33-2.91-0.88
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.514.5731.5835.40-0.19-1.33
Austin PeayOVC3.194.4617.6523.82-2.06-2.33
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.414.4522.2223.57-0.23-2.35
Tennessee MartinOVC3.114.4355.5656.680.350.59
Murray St.OVC3.104.4247.0653.51-0.180.31
TroySB5.973.7746.6747.99-0.40-0.15
Western IllinoisSum5.883.7730.7729.93-2.26-1.51
Morehead St.OVC3.182.5431.2539.23-1.19-0.55
Eastern KentuckyOVC3.022.5133.3333.75-1.01-0.82
Jacksonville St.OVC3.182.5150.0051.230.000.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.242.5131.5833.46-0.09-0.83
Tennessee St.OVC0.322.5158.8260.900.060.55
BelmontOVC0.402.5175.0074.820.201.24
Northern KentuckyHorz3.112.0852.9454.430.180.18
BradleyMVC3.021.9833.3331.26-1.01-0.74
South AlabamaSB3.111.9846.6742.89-0.21-0.28
Saint LouisA102.941.9223.5321.80-1.56-1.08
Illinois ChicagoHorz2.941.9256.2552.940.370.11
Indiana St.MVC3.021.9129.4133.61-1.24-0.63
MissouriSEC2.941.8531.2526.83-1.10-0.86
Southern IllinoisMVC0.400.3552.6347.720.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.340.3344.4450.48-0.040.00
Arkansas St.SB0.080.3264.7165.930.020.10
Chicago St.WAC0.610.2916.6718.29-0.41-0.19
EvansvilleMVC0.330.2944.4443.57-0.04-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.240.2963.1659.600.060.05
Fort WayneSum0.360.2864.7166.910.110.09
Green BayHorz0.160.2652.9450.950.010.00
Illinois St.MVC0.320.2677.7878.460.180.15
MississippiSEC0.330.2561.1155.030.070.03
Texas St.SB0.260.2553.3345.980.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.270.2538.8943.16-0.06-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.360.2426.3228.81-0.17-0.10
Miami OHMAC0.450.2337.5034.55-0.11-0.07
Western KentuckyCUSA0.400.2347.3745.06-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.250.2326.3232.63-0.12-0.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.340.226.2511.88-0.30-0.17
Georgia St.SB0.340.2253.3355.990.020.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.340.2268.7570.270.130.09
South Dakota St.Sum0.280.2131.5833.41-0.10-0.07
IndianaB100.080.2068.4264.610.030.06
DetroitHorz0.250.1916.6723.07-0.17-0.10
UMKCWAC0.160.1938.8939.92-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.080.1961.1156.230.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.260.1962.5060.090.070.04
Little RockSB0.000.1956.2551.110.000.00
DenverSum0.290.1857.8955.950.050.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.170.1783.3383.150.120.11
ValparaisoHorz0.170.1677.7877.270.090.09
Youngstown St.Horz0.260.1636.8433.59-0.07-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.160.1661.1159.670.040.03
Wichita St.MVC0.240.1678.9582.980.140.10
Nebraska OmahaSum0.200.1552.6353.100.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1564.7162.600.000.04
Oral RobertsSum0.200.1522.2229.94-0.11-0.06
South DakotaSum0.000.1555.0054.820.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.1320.0026.44-0.05-0.06
DelawareCAA0.240.1333.3330.90-0.08-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.250.1318.7527.90-0.16-0.06
ArkansasSEC0.170.1377.7870.290.090.05
HawaiiBW0.170.1343.7546.21-0.02-0.01
OaklandHorz0.250.1372.2274.630.110.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.1333.3333.28-0.03-0.04
IllinoisB100.170.1361.1153.360.040.01
DaytonA100.080.1376.4776.940.040.07
CornellIvy0.170.1320.0024.53-0.10-0.06
DrakeMVC0.080.1329.4127.72-0.03-0.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.1325.0028.40-0.04-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.080.1335.2939.22-0.02-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.320.1264.7156.100.090.02
DuquesneA100.160.1247.3741.47-0.01-0.02
PurdueB100.280.1178.9576.890.160.06
Kansas St.B120.280.1077.7862.260.150.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1044.4442.60-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.080.1060.0061.270.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.1021.0528.89-0.05-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.160.1016.6720.43-0.11-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.1061.1163.070.020.03
StetsonASun0.090.1029.4130.28-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.160.1031.2540.50-0.06-0.02
DePaulBE0.090.1042.1130.39-0.01-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.250.1060.0053.460.050.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0988.8987.510.060.07
SamfordSC0.250.0964.7160.050.070.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0928.5731.47-0.00-0.03
AuburnSEC0.160.0966.6755.390.050.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0943.7543.71-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0962.5062.710.000.02
San FranciscoWCC0.260.0963.1660.550.070.02
AlabamaSEC0.170.0964.7157.700.050.01
George MasonA100.160.0964.7156.510.050.01
AmericanPat0.200.0727.7830.73-0.09-0.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0777.7874.930.000.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.170.0758.8260.260.030.01
MarshallCUSA0.160.0755.5660.070.020.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0735.2935.14-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0766.6761.530.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.080.0764.7167.120.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0770.5958.250.040.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0617.6524.51-0.05-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0612.5024.37-0.06-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.170.0652.9450.590.010.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.160.0618.7535.73-0.10-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.170.0660.0072.810.030.03
TCUB120.150.0676.4763.630.080.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0647.0648.42-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.170.0635.2928.97-0.05-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0652.9451.020.000.00
UABCUSA0.170.0661.1164.320.040.02
USCP120.170.0680.0071.930.100.03
WyomingMWC0.170.0664.7157.710.050.01
DavidsonA100.170.0652.9453.560.010.00
La SalleA100.080.0668.7564.060.030.02
St. BonaventureA100.080.0666.6762.870.030.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0422.2221.17-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.0377.7873.860.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0370.5973.700.040.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0327.7832.97-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0368.4252.190.000.00
PittsburghACC0.090.0363.1651.610.020.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0347.3745.83-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0352.9454.710.000.00
ButlerBE0.080.0384.2178.340.060.02
Cal PolyBW0.090.0318.7527.05-0.05-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0337.5037.69-0.02-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0356.2551.810.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0375.0074.870.040.02
ElonCAA0.090.0350.0051.340.000.00
FIUCUSA0.090.0311.7621.45-0.07-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0352.9458.360.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0361.1147.020.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.080.0312.5028.49-0.06-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0312.5022.04-0.06-0.02
Iowa St.B120.080.0364.7161.830.020.01
LouisvilleACC0.080.0384.2179.280.050.02
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0335.0036.31-0.02-0.01
MarylandB100.080.0388.8973.830.060.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0363.1657.700.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0366.6767.550.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0342.1141.75-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0362.5063.260.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0337.5051.21-0.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0325.0022.32-0.05-0.02
StanfordP120.080.0355.5648.060.01-0.00
Texas TechB120.080.0377.7865.330.040.01
TulsaAmer0.080.0358.8251.180.010.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0388.8986.040.060.02
UNLVMWC0.090.0347.3743.68-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.080.0352.9451.300.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.080.0343.7543.98-0.01-0.00
UTSACUSA0.090.0343.7538.29-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0383.3380.700.050.02
ArizonaP120.090.0389.4784.510.070.02
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0364.7158.520.030.01
HofstraCAA0.080.0342.1143.49-0.01-0.00
LSUSEC0.090.0352.9438.780.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.080.0384.2178.680.050.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0325.0034.04-0.04-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0382.3574.990.000.02
TulaneAmer0.090.0322.2220.60-0.05-0.02
XavierBE0.090.0372.2267.680.040.01
BYUWCC0.080.0370.0068.710.030.01
FordhamA100.000.0338.8935.26-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0352.6348.070.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0363.1660.390.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0014.44-0.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0361.1157.870.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0347.0646.29-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0311.7618.03-0.06-0.02
VCUA100.000.0373.6870.630.000.01
WinthropBSth0.080.0375.0075.420.040.02