Eastern Illinois

Conference:	OVC
Expected RPI:	262.0
Current RPI:	262
Expected SOS:	225
Current SOS:	225
Current Record:	10-19
Expected Record:	10-19
Current Conf Record:	8-12
Expected Conf Record:	8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-5
Current OOC Record:	2-7
Expected OOC Record:	2-7
Expected OOC RPI:	306
Expected OOC SOS:	255

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-19	262.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Nebraska (56.0)	B10	A	72-68	L	0%
11-15	Western Illinois (302.0)	Sum	A	56-54	L	0%
11-17	IUPUI (294.0)	Horz	H	80-79	W	100%
11-20	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	A	94-63	L	0%
11-27	Marquette (58.0)	BE	A	86-83	L	0%
12-1	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	A	67-56	L	0%
12-6	Green Bay (303.0)	Horz	A	59-57	L	0%
12-16	South Alabama (270.0)	SB	A	63-52	L	0%
12-19	Western Illinois (302.0)	Sum	H	78-77	W	100%
12-28	Murray St. (48.0)	OVC	A	80-52	L	0%
12-30	Austin Peay (164.0)	OVC	A	70-54	L	0%
1-4	Morehead St. (292.0)	OVC	A	52-61	W	100%
1-6	Eastern Kentucky (271.0)	OVC	A	53-54	W	100%
1-11	Tennessee St. (189.0)	OVC	H	65-69	L	0%
1-13	Belmont (81.0)	OVC	H	66-75	L	0%
1-18	Tennessee Martin (306.0)	OVC	H	80-60	W	100%
1-20	Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)	OVC	H	74-86	L	0%
1-25	Belmont (81.0)	OVC	A	81-59	L	0%
1-27	Tennessee St. (189.0)	OVC	A	50-47	L	0%
2-1	Jacksonville St. (149.0)	OVC	H	56-75	L	0%
2-3	Tennessee Tech (158.0)	OVC	H	79-71	W	100%
2-8	SIU Edwardsville (287.0)	OVC	A	74-78	W	100%
2-10	Austin Peay (164.0)	OVC	H	69-76	L	0%
2-15	Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)	OVC	A	80-73	L	0%
2-17	Tennessee Martin (306.0)	OVC	A	57-64	W	100%
2-22	Murray St. (48.0)	OVC	H	66-76	L	0%
2-24	SIU Edwardsville (287.0)	OVC	H	68-56	W	100%
2-28	Tennessee St. (189.0)	OVC	N	71-73	W	100%
3-1	Austin Peay (164.0)	OVC	N	73-66	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Eastern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Eastern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Eastern Illinois	OVC	26.57	26.57	36.64	36.64	-7.10	-7.10
Austin Peay	OVC	6.01	6.01	48.15	48.15	-0.22	-0.22
Tennessee St.	OVC	5.89	5.89	44.00	44.00	-0.71	-0.71
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	4.54	4.54	32.14	32.14	-1.62	-1.62
Belmont	OVC	4.42	4.42	70.97	70.97	1.85	1.85
Murray St.	OVC	4.37	4.37	81.48	81.48	2.75	2.75
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	4.32	4.32	37.04	37.04	-1.12	-1.12
Tennessee Martin	OVC	4.30	4.30	29.63	29.63	-1.75	-1.75
Western Illinois	Sum	3.54	3.54	31.82	31.82	-1.29	-1.29
Jacksonville St.	OVC	2.75	2.75	61.29	61.29	0.62	0.62
Tennessee Tech	OVC	2.74	2.74	56.67	56.67	0.37	0.37
Morehead St.	OVC	2.65	2.65	23.08	23.08	-1.43	-1.43
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	2.63	2.63	32.14	32.14	-0.94	-0.94
IUPUI	Horz	1.97	1.97	33.33	33.33	-0.66	-0.66
Bradley	MVC	1.84	1.84	58.06	58.06	0.30	0.30
Green Bay	Horz	1.84	1.84	31.03	31.03	-0.70	-0.70
South Alabama	SB	1.78	1.78	37.93	37.93	-0.43	-0.43
San Diego St.	MWC	1.75	1.75	66.67	66.67	0.58	0.58
Marquette	BE	1.72	1.72	58.06	58.06	0.28	0.28
Nebraska	B10	1.72	1.72	67.74	67.74	0.61	0.61
Lipscomb	ASun	0.26	0.26	68.97	68.97	0.10	0.10
Milwaukee	Horz	0.24	0.24	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.23	0.23	82.35	82.35	0.15	0.15
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.23	0.23	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.22	0.22	80.00	80.00	0.13	0.13
Detroit	Horz	0.21	0.21	20.00	20.00	-0.12	-0.12
Wright St.	Horz	0.21	0.21	71.88	71.88	0.09	0.09
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.20	0.20	76.67	76.67	0.11	0.11
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.20	0.20	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.20	0.20	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.20	0.20	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.18	0.18	68.97	68.97	0.07	0.07
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.18	0.18	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.17	0.17	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.17	0.17	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.17	0.17	69.70	69.70	0.07	0.07
Miami OH	MAC	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Butler	BE	0.16	0.16	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Oakland	Horz	0.15	0.15	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Denver	Sum	0.14	0.14	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.14	0.14	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.14	0.14	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
South Dakota	Sum	0.14	0.14	73.33	73.33	0.07	0.07
Stetson	ASun	0.14	0.14	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Chattanooga	SC	0.14	0.14	25.81	25.81	-0.07	-0.07
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Creighton	BE	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.12	0.12	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.12	0.12	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Kansas	B12	0.12	0.12	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.12	0.12	32.35	32.35	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.12	0.12	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Saint Louis	A10	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.12	0.12	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Illinois St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	3.33	3.33	-0.10	-0.10
Valparaiso	MVC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.11	0.11	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
American	Pat	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Canisius	MAAC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.09	0.09	24.24	24.24	-0.05	-0.05
LSU	SEC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.09	0.09	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.09	9.68	9.68	-0.07	-0.07
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.09	0.09	93.94	93.94	0.08	0.08
Xavier	BE	0.09	0.09	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
New Mexico	MWC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
TCU	B12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Washington St.	P12	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
San Jose St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	10.34	10.34	-0.04	-0.04
UNLV	MWC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UTSA	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Utah St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
UCF	Amer	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02