live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Jan 30, 2015.


San Francisco

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:186.0
Current RPI:194
Expected SOS:96
Current SOS:97
Current Record:8-13
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:3-7
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:204
Expected OOC SOS:125



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13118.20.14%
15-14134.32.27%
14-15151.410.86%
13-16171.325.14%
12-17189.230.75%
11-18206.021.82%
10-19221.07.67%
9-20236.11.24%
8-21246.40.10%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Francisco.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16South Carolina St. (304.1)MEACH91-52W100%0.0
11-24Hawaii (179.7)BWN73-88W100%0.0
11-25Florida Gulf Coast (127.7)ASunN62-47L0%0.0
11-26Evansville (78.4)MVCN72-79L0%0.0
11-30Montana (168.7)BSkyH76-57W100%0.0
12-3Colorado (91.3)P12A72-55L0%0.0
12-7Houston Baptist (284.2)SlndH85-54W100%0.0
12-11Eastern Washington (74.5)BSkyH76-81L0%0.0
12-15Cal Poly (162.9)BWH71-78L0%0.0
12-18Portland St. (251.0)BSkyH77-40W100%0.0
12-21Cleveland St. (134.3)HorzA69-65L0%0.0
12-27Pacific (225.6)WCCA71-77W100%0.0
12-29Saint Mary's (50.7)WCCA69-56L0%0.0
1-1San Diego (159.8)WCCH56-57L0%0.0
1-3BYU (51.3)WCCH68-99L0%0.0
1-8Gonzaga (7.4)WCCA88-57L0%0.0
1-10Portland (164.6)WCCA77-89W100%0.0
1-17Santa Clara (195.0)WCCA70-64L0%0.0
1-22Pepperdine (143.4)WCCH71-59W100%0.0
1-24Loyola Marymount (246.7)WCCH69-70L0%0.0
1-29BYU (51.3)WCCA78-74L0%0.0
1-31San Diego (159.8)WCCA0-037%-3.7
2-5Portland (164.6)WCCH0-067%4.9
2-7Gonzaga (7.4)WCCH0-010%-14.2
2-12Santa Clara (195.0)WCCH0-078%8.7
2-19Loyola Marymount (246.7)WCCA0-061%3.0
2-21Pepperdine (143.4)WCCA0-033%-4.9
2-26Saint Mary's (50.7)WCCH0-044%-1.6
2-28Pacific (225.6)WCCH0-081%9.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Francisco's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Francisco's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Francisco.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San FranciscoWCC26.4326.4435.0538.19-7.90-6.24
GonzagaWCC3.044.4695.0094.622.733.98
PortlandWCC3.034.4552.6351.570.160.14
Saint Mary'sWCC3.034.4578.9573.971.762.13
Santa ClaraWCC3.034.4542.1138.91-0.48-0.99
BYUWCC5.294.4563.1665.551.391.38
Loyola MarymountWCC2.974.4220.0021.72-1.78-2.50
San DiegoWCC2.974.4245.0043.89-0.30-0.54
PepperdineWCC2.974.4263.1659.620.780.85
PacificWCC2.964.4138.8935.15-0.66-1.31
Cal PolyBW2.621.9643.7547.28-0.33-0.11
Portland St.BSky2.581.8850.0046.740.00-0.12
HawaiiBW2.621.8868.4261.070.970.42
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.451.8568.7572.370.920.83
MontanaBSky2.451.8256.2558.050.310.29
ColoradoP122.441.7552.6350.650.130.02
Cleveland St.Horz2.381.7247.3751.73-0.130.06
EvansvilleMVC2.381.7273.6868.721.130.65
Florida Gulf CoastASun2.381.7261.1166.240.530.56
Houston BaptistSlnd2.381.7241.6734.97-0.40-0.52
South Carolina St.MEAC2.381.7230.0033.39-0.95-0.57
UC IrvineBW0.310.3155.5658.560.030.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.190.2866.6762.680.060.07
UC RiversideBW0.350.2538.8936.60-0.08-0.07
Northern ArizonaBSky0.260.2542.1147.36-0.04-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.250.2544.4452.05-0.030.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.190.2531.5831.12-0.07-0.09
Idaho St.BSky0.270.2215.7922.84-0.19-0.12
Montana St.BSky0.130.2215.7919.24-0.09-0.14
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.320.2223.8126.39-0.17-0.10
Weber St.BSky0.320.2238.8943.58-0.07-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.240.2168.4269.400.090.08
IdahoBSky0.140.1937.5043.27-0.04-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.270.1947.0652.46-0.020.01
Fresno St.MWC0.250.1942.1137.96-0.04-0.05
San Jose St.MWC0.180.180.001.50-0.18-0.18
Long Beach St.BW0.180.1845.0052.61-0.020.01
Western MichiganMAC0.180.1861.1156.540.040.02
WashingtonP120.250.1870.0063.140.100.05
Arizona St.P120.180.1850.0051.090.000.00
Washington St.P120.180.1845.0036.07-0.02-0.05
UCLAP120.170.1757.1455.760.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.210.1623.5330.63-0.11-0.06
Southern UtahBSky0.200.1623.5328.20-0.10-0.07
NortheasternCAA0.190.1663.6464.410.050.05
USCP120.250.1545.0039.01-0.02-0.03
StanfordP120.170.1575.0071.470.090.06
Wichita St.MVC0.180.1590.0088.060.140.11
CaliforniaP120.210.1257.1447.880.03-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.190.1285.0081.560.130.08
UC DavisBW0.060.1276.4768.620.030.05
Green BayHorz0.120.1278.9577.960.070.07
DrakeMVC0.060.1220.0021.28-0.04-0.07
Utah St.MWC0.170.1257.8955.970.030.01
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1280.0079.220.070.07
St. John'sBE0.120.1263.1658.070.030.02
San Diego St.MWC0.170.1275.0075.690.090.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1236.8437.34-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.170.1278.9580.140.100.07
ArizonaP120.120.1190.9188.550.100.09
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.1070.5975.650.030.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.1035.2932.56-0.02-0.04
NevadaMWC0.130.1023.5325.35-0.07-0.05
New OrleansSlnd0.150.1023.0835.90-0.08-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.0938.8938.68-0.03-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.070.0936.8440.44-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.120.0935.2930.49-0.04-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.150.0922.2240.62-0.08-0.02
LipscombASun0.120.0938.8941.90-0.03-0.01
MassachusettsA100.180.0955.0055.190.020.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.0930.0030.14-0.05-0.04
XavierBE0.120.0966.6765.800.040.03
HowardMEAC0.060.0941.1844.43-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.120.0936.3638.71-0.03-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0920.0027.25-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.120.0980.0081.590.070.06
Oregon St.P120.060.0965.0059.750.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.170.0950.0058.090.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.090.004.66-0.11-0.08
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0916.6725.21-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.120.0945.0046.68-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.130.0980.0077.800.080.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.0945.0057.12-0.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.0944.4449.91-0.01-0.00
DePaulBE0.120.0950.0042.550.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.120.0960.0049.450.02-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.120.0973.6866.450.060.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0758.3365.180.000.02
LamarSlnd0.090.0737.5037.53-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0782.3584.890.000.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0752.9447.000.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.150.0740.0037.05-0.03-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0620.0020.72-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0623.8125.53-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.060.0650.0052.630.000.00
North FloridaASun0.060.0655.0060.490.010.01
StetsonASun0.060.0616.6722.55-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.060.0663.1663.400.020.02
SeattleWAC0.140.0647.0649.37-0.01-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.130.0626.3236.42-0.06-0.02
OregonP120.070.0666.6761.400.020.01
IonaMAAC0.120.0671.4374.940.050.03
OhioMAC0.120.0638.8935.48-0.03-0.02
CreightonBE0.060.0645.4540.60-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.060.0642.8646.32-0.01-0.00
IowaB100.060.0665.0063.420.020.02
Michigan St.B100.060.0666.6764.920.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0650.0061.990.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.060.0672.2268.790.030.02
RichmondA100.060.0655.0056.890.010.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0663.6464.900.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.060.0626.3229.17-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.060.0663.1654.160.020.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0655.0055.280.010.01
MaristMAAC0.120.0614.2916.80-0.09-0.04
PittsburghACC0.120.0660.0052.020.020.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.0636.8438.01-0.03-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0621.0530.43-0.03-0.02
BradleyMVC0.060.0628.5727.78-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.110.0664.7165.450.030.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0610.5319.78-0.05-0.04
DetroitHorz0.060.0642.8642.93-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0615.0017.47-0.04-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0660.0060.200.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.120.0645.0043.94-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.120.0657.8958.390.020.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0654.5556.920.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0631.5834.29-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0690.4885.060.050.04
OaklandHorz0.120.0640.0043.69-0.02-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0641.1841.54-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.110.0661.9058.640.030.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0638.1036.83-0.01-0.02
VirginiaACC0.120.06100.0094.030.120.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0633.3333.64-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0665.0061.650.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0642.1139.33-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.040.003.40-0.09-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0421.4339.76-0.05-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0414.2917.20-0.07-0.02
NorthwesternB100.090.0450.0043.420.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0440.0048.23-0.02-0.00
RiceCUSA0.090.0425.0027.87-0.05-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0457.8957.960.010.01
DelawareCAA0.070.0320.0022.25-0.04-0.02
IPFWSum0.070.0338.8941.66-0.02-0.01
DavidsonA100.070.0376.4777.080.040.02
FIUCUSA0.060.0341.1840.94-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.060.0327.7831.26-0.03-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0363.1661.850.020.01
South DakotaSum0.070.0342.8644.91-0.01-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0366.6768.850.020.01
IndianaB100.070.0371.4366.610.030.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0338.8939.75-0.02-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0364.2967.400.020.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0365.0063.630.020.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0376.4771.300.030.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0327.2731.53-0.03-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0355.0053.780.010.00
FordhamA100.060.0323.5324.42-0.03-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0373.3372.110.030.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0340.0038.69-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0333.3331.28-0.02-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0385.0078.450.040.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0321.0525.57-0.03-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.060.0331.5830.78-0.02-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0357.1462.480.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0315.0023.63-0.04-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0372.2277.840.030.02
Texas TechB120.060.0352.3840.080.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0360.0058.610.010.01
VCUA100.060.0385.0082.110.040.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0340.0044.17-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.060.0338.8937.17-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0328.5736.68-0.03-0.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0347.3738.40-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0331.5832.46-0.02-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0333.3331.54-0.02-0.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0376.1969.570.030.01
High PointBSth0.060.0373.6870.420.030.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0321.0533.18-0.03-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0331.5844.68-0.02-0.00
WyomingMWC0.060.0378.9573.790.030.01