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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


San Francisco

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:94.0
Current RPI:94
Expected SOS:113
Current SOS:113
Current Record:19-12
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-1
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:88
Expected OOC SOS:187



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1294.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Francisco.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzH82-80W100%0.0
11-16UC Santa Barbara (324.0)BWA63-75W100%0.0
11-23Troy (147.0)SBH79-67W100%0.0
11-26Sacramento St. (293.0)BSkyN59-77W100%0.0
11-27Eastern Washington (148.0)BSkyA96-90L0%0.0
11-30Alcorn St. (228.0)SWACH78-65W100%0.0
12-2Lamar (232.0)SlndH82-63W100%0.0
12-16Portland St. (268.0)BSkyH78-82L0%0.0
12-19Abilene Christian (288.0)SlndH86-51W100%0.0
12-22Utah (83.0)P12N86-89W100%0.0
12-23Illinois St. (33.0)MVCN58-66W100%0.0
12-25San Diego St. (98.0)MWCN48-62L0%0.0
12-29San Diego (205.0)WCCH80-74W100%0.0
12-31Santa Clara (126.0)WCCA72-58L0%0.0
1-5Gonzaga (8.0)WCCH80-95L0%0.0
1-7Saint Mary's (17.0)WCCH52-63L0%0.0
1-12BYU (65.0)WCCA85-75L0%0.0
1-14Pacific (223.0)WCCH72-51W100%0.0
1-19Portland (233.0)WCCH75-50W100%0.0
1-21San Diego (205.0)WCCA43-60W100%0.0
1-26Saint Mary's (17.0)WCCA66-46L0%0.0
1-28Pacific (223.0)WCCA60-81W100%0.0
2-2Pepperdine (245.0)WCCH77-56W100%0.0
2-4Loyola Marymount (153.0)WCCH74-64W100%0.0
2-9Santa Clara (126.0)WCCH61-58W100%0.0
2-11BYU (65.0)WCCH52-68L0%0.0
2-16Gonzaga (8.0)WCCA96-61L0%0.0
2-18Portland (233.0)WCCA51-65W100%0.0
2-23Loyola Marymount (153.0)WCCA53-51L0%0.0
2-25Pepperdine (245.0)WCCA65-76W100%0.0
3-4Santa Clara (126.0)WCCN76-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Francisco's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Francisco's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Francisco.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San FranciscoWCC26.3826.3859.7159.715.125.12
Santa ClaraWCC5.725.7248.2848.28-0.20-0.20
GonzagaWCC4.314.3196.7796.774.034.03
Saint Mary'sWCC4.254.2586.6786.673.123.12
PacificWCC4.234.2333.3333.33-1.41-1.41
PortlandWCC4.234.2331.0331.03-1.61-1.61
BYUWCC4.214.2164.5264.521.221.22
San DiegoWCC4.204.2042.8642.86-0.60-0.60
PepperdineWCC4.184.1828.5728.57-1.79-1.79
Loyola MarymountWCC4.174.1748.1548.15-0.15-0.15
Portland St.BSky1.861.8640.7440.74-0.34-0.34
Sacramento St.BSky1.811.8139.2939.29-0.39-0.39
San Diego St.MWC1.721.7254.8454.840.170.17
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.701.7063.3363.330.450.45
Abilene ChristianSlnd1.671.6737.5037.50-0.42-0.42
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.671.6719.2319.23-1.03-1.03
LamarSlnd1.651.6553.5753.570.120.12
Alcorn St.SWAC1.611.6153.5753.570.120.12
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.611.6143.3343.33-0.22-0.22
Illinois St.MVC1.611.6183.8783.871.091.09
TroySB1.611.6160.6160.610.340.34
UtahP121.611.6164.2964.290.460.46
Northern ArizonaBSky0.350.3525.8125.81-0.17-0.17
Cal St. FullertonBW0.240.2451.7251.720.010.01
USCP120.240.2472.7372.730.110.11
Weber St.BSky0.240.2456.6756.670.030.03
NevadaMWC0.240.2482.3582.350.150.15
UC IrvineBW0.240.2457.5857.580.040.04
San Jose St.MWC0.230.2342.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.220.2212.9012.90-0.16-0.16
MontanaBSky0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.220.2222.2222.22-0.12-0.12
Northern ColoradoBSky0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
UCLAP120.210.2187.8887.880.160.16
Idaho St.BSky0.210.2113.3313.33-0.16-0.16
ColoradoP120.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
Montana St.BSky0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.180.1874.1974.190.090.09
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.170.1760.7160.710.040.04
North DakotaBSky0.170.1767.8667.860.060.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.170.1735.7135.71-0.05-0.05
UC DavisBW0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
Washington St.P120.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
ArizonaP120.150.1588.2488.240.120.12
Incarnate WordSlnd0.150.1532.0032.00-0.05-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.140.1437.0437.04-0.04-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.1467.8667.860.050.05
HawaiiBW0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
Oregon St.P120.140.1412.9012.90-0.10-0.10
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1321.8821.88-0.07-0.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
South DakotaSum0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
Green BayHorz0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
StanfordP120.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.06-0.06
WashingtonP120.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.100.1076.6776.670.050.05
Little RockSB0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0919.2319.23-0.05-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0936.0036.00-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
SeattleWAC0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0829.4129.41-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
TulsaAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
BryantNEC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0744.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Texas St.SB0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
DenverSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
SMUAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
ButlerBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
TexasB120.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
CornellIvy0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01