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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


San Francisco

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:181.0
Current RPI:181
Expected SOS:94
Current SOS:94
Current Record:13-18
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:218
Expected OOC SOS:161



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-18181.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Francisco.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16South Carolina St. (320.0)MEACH91-52W100%0.0
11-24Hawaii (152.0)BWN73-88W100%0.0
11-25Florida Gulf Coast (137.0)ASunN62-47L0%0.0
11-26Evansville (118.0)MVCN72-79L0%0.0
11-30Montana (144.0)BSkyH76-57W100%0.0
12-3Colorado (116.0)P12A72-55L0%0.0
12-7Houston Baptist (285.0)SlndH85-54W100%0.0
12-11Eastern Washington (74.0)BSkyH76-81L0%0.0
12-15Cal Poly (199.0)BWH71-78L0%0.0
12-18Portland St. (225.0)BSkyH77-40W100%0.0
12-21Cleveland St. (127.0)HorzA69-65L0%0.0
12-27Pacific (241.0)WCCA71-77W100%0.0
12-29Saint Mary's (68.0)WCCA69-56L0%0.0
1-1San Diego (157.0)WCCH56-57L0%0.0
1-3BYU (36.0)WCCH68-99L0%0.0
1-8Gonzaga (8.0)WCCA88-57L0%0.0
1-10Portland (149.0)WCCA77-89W100%0.0
1-17Santa Clara (202.0)WCCA70-64L0%0.0
1-22Pepperdine (134.0)WCCH71-59W100%0.0
1-24Loyola Marymount (268.0)WCCH69-70L0%0.0
1-29BYU (36.0)WCCA78-74L0%0.0
1-31San Diego (157.0)WCCA77-69L0%0.0
2-5Portland (149.0)WCCH57-69L0%0.0
2-7Gonzaga (8.0)WCCH70-81L0%0.0
2-12Santa Clara (202.0)WCCH69-62W100%0.0
2-19Loyola Marymount (268.0)WCCA45-72W100%0.0
2-21Pepperdine (134.0)WCCA54-56W100%0.0
2-26Saint Mary's (68.0)WCCH53-84L0%0.0
2-28Pacific (241.0)WCCH65-55W100%0.0
3-6Pacific (241.0)WCCN62-58W100%0.0
3-7Gonzaga (8.0)WCCN81-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Francisco's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Francisco's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Francisco.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San FranciscoWCC26.5326.5339.0739.07-5.80-5.80
GonzagaWCC5.905.9093.3393.335.115.11
PacificWCC5.745.7436.0036.00-1.61-1.61
BYUWCC4.404.4070.0070.001.761.76
PortlandWCC4.324.3250.0050.000.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC4.324.3239.2939.29-0.93-0.93
PepperdineWCC4.314.3160.7160.710.920.92
Saint Mary'sWCC4.274.2766.6766.671.421.42
San DiegoWCC4.244.2442.8642.86-0.61-0.61
Loyola MarymountWCC4.244.2421.4321.43-2.42-2.42
Cal PolyBW1.841.8438.4638.46-0.43-0.43
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.751.7573.3373.330.820.82
HawaiiBW1.751.7562.5062.500.440.44
Portland St.BSky1.751.7550.0050.000.000.00
MontanaBSky1.721.7262.0762.070.420.42
ColoradoP121.641.6445.1645.16-0.16-0.16
Cleveland St.Horz1.611.6151.7251.720.060.06
EvansvilleMVC1.611.6158.6258.620.280.28
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.611.6164.2964.290.460.46
Houston BaptistSlnd1.611.6134.7834.78-0.49-0.49
South Carolina St.MEAC1.611.6130.0030.00-0.65-0.65
UC IrvineBW0.330.3361.2961.290.070.07
Sacramento St.BSky0.320.3262.0762.070.080.08
Northern ArizonaBSky0.250.2556.2556.250.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.250.2556.6756.670.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.230.2341.3841.38-0.04-0.04
Idaho St.BSky0.220.2217.8617.86-0.14-0.14
Cal St. FullertonBW0.220.2224.1424.14-0.11-0.11
Weber St.BSky0.210.2139.2939.29-0.05-0.05
Fresno St.MWC0.200.2043.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.190.1958.0658.060.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.190.1922.5822.58-0.11-0.11
IdahoBSky0.190.1939.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.190.1974.1974.190.090.09
Montana St.BSky0.190.1920.6920.69-0.11-0.11
WashingtonP120.190.1951.6151.610.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.180.1845.1645.16-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
Washington St.P120.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.160.1646.4346.43-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.160.160.000.00-0.16-0.16
Arizona St.P120.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.140.1421.4321.43-0.08-0.08
NortheasternCAA0.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
Southern UtahBSky0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.140.1481.2581.250.090.09
ValparaisoHorz0.130.1383.3383.330.090.09
USCP120.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.130.1379.3179.310.080.08
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1387.1087.100.100.10
StanfordP120.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
St. John'sBE0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
ArizonaP120.120.1291.1891.180.100.10
NevadaMWC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1123.0823.08-0.06-0.06
Green BayHorz0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
CaliforniaP120.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
DrakeMVC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Oregon St.P120.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Utah St.MWC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
UtahP120.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
SMUAmer0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1064.7164.710.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0972.4172.410.040.04
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0930.7730.77-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
LipscombASun0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
IUPUISum0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
Wright St.Horz0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
HowardMEAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
NebraskaB100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
MemphisAmer0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0758.3358.330.010.01
LamarSlnd0.070.0742.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0786.6786.670.050.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
StetsonASun0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0590.9190.910.040.04
OaklandHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UNLVMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0590.6290.620.040.04
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0362.9662.960.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0327.2727.27-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00