San Francisco

Conference:	WCC
Expected RPI:	167.0
Current RPI:	167
Expected SOS:	114
Current SOS:	114
Current Record:	13-16
Expected Record:	13-16
Current Conf Record:	7-10
Expected Conf Record:	7-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-3
Current OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC RPI:	170
Expected OOC SOS:	149

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-16	167.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Francisco.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Stanford (77.0)	P12	N	74-62	L	0%
11-19	American (278.0)	Pat	A	53-67	W	100%
11-24	Columbia (273.0)	Ivy	H	79-59	W	100%
11-30	Montana (66.0)	BSky	H	78-68	W	100%
12-4	St. John's (96.0)	BE	H	81-65	W	100%
12-8	Pacific (97.0)	BW	A	67-59	L	0%
12-15	Nevada (171.0)	MWC	A	59-51	L	0%
12-18	Holy Cross (251.0)	Pat	H	63-73	L	0%
12-22	San Diego St. (30.0)	MWC	N	58-80	L	0%
12-23	Mississippi (47.0)	SEC	N	78-85	L	0%
12-25	East Tennessee St. (275.0)	ASun	N	49-67	W	100%
1-2	Santa Clara (101.0)	WCC	A	74-69	L	0%
1-5	Brigham Young (69.0)	WCC	H	76-80	L	0%
1-10	San Diego (165.0)	WCC	H	66-70	L	0%
1-12	St. Mary's (29.0)	WCC	A	78-72	L	0%
1-17	Santa Clara (101.0)	WCC	H	54-85	L	0%
1-19	Loyola Marymount (211.0)	WCC	H	62-53	W	100%
1-24	Portland (231.0)	WCC	A	72-75	W	100%
1-26	Gonzaga (6.0)	WCC	A	66-52	L	0%
1-30	St. Mary's (29.0)	WCC	H	63-67	L	0%
2-2	Pepperdine (212.0)	WCC	A	78-86	W	100%
2-9	Brigham Young (69.0)	WCC	A	87-99	W	100%
2-14	Portland (231.0)	WCC	H	76-78	L	0%
2-16	Gonzaga (6.0)	WCC	H	61-71	L	0%
2-21	Loyola Marymount (211.0)	WCC	A	59-61	W	100%
2-23	Pepperdine (212.0)	WCC	H	64-58	W	100%
2-28	San Diego (165.0)	WCC	A	70-83	W	100%
3-7	Loyola Marymount (211.0)	WCC	N	60-61	L	0%
3-14	Northern Kentucky (264.0)	ASun	H	73-68	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Francisco's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

San Francisco's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against San Francisco.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
San Francisco	WCC	26.37	26.37	43.62	43.62	-3.36	-3.36
Loyola Marymount	WCC	6.15	6.15	31.03	31.03	-2.33	-2.33
San Diego	WCC	4.54	4.54	43.33	43.33	-0.61	-0.61
Gonzaga	WCC	4.45	4.45	93.33	93.33	3.85	3.85
St. Mary's	WCC	4.45	4.45	80.00	80.00	2.67	2.67
Santa Clara	WCC	4.39	4.39	60.71	60.71	0.94	0.94
Brigham Young	WCC	4.37	4.37	65.52	65.52	1.35	1.35
Portland	WCC	4.36	4.36	28.57	28.57	-1.87	-1.87
Pepperdine	WCC	4.33	4.33	40.74	40.74	-0.80	-0.80
Pacific	BW	1.97	1.97	61.29	61.29	0.45	0.45
Holy Cross	Pat	1.84	1.84	37.93	37.93	-0.44	-0.44
San Diego St.	MWC	1.84	1.84	65.52	65.52	0.57	0.57
Montana	BSky	1.83	1.83	82.14	82.14	1.18	1.18
Northern Kentucky	ASun	1.83	1.83	42.31	42.31	-0.28	-0.28
Mississippi	SEC	1.83	1.83	75.76	75.76	0.94	0.94
American	Pat	1.81	1.81	34.48	34.48	-0.56	-0.56
East Tennessee St.	ASun	1.81	1.81	30.00	30.00	-0.73	-0.73
Nevada	MWC	1.81	1.81	34.48	34.48	-0.56	-0.56
Columbia	Ivy	1.78	1.78	40.00	40.00	-0.36	-0.36
St. John's	BE	1.75	1.75	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
Stanford	P12	1.72	1.72	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.31	0.31	38.46	38.46	-0.07	-0.07
Cal Poly	BW	0.30	0.30	55.17	55.17	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.25	0.25	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.22	0.22	31.03	31.03	-0.08	-0.08
Colorado St.	MWC	0.20	0.20	74.19	74.19	0.10	0.10
New Mexico	MWC	0.20	0.20	85.29	85.29	0.14	0.14
Washington St.	P12	0.20	0.20	40.62	40.62	-0.04	-0.04
Portland St.	BSky	0.20	0.20	23.08	23.08	-0.11	-0.11
Southern Utah	BSky	0.20	0.20	31.03	31.03	-0.07	-0.07
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.20	0.20	34.38	34.38	-0.06	-0.06
Yale	Ivy	0.18	0.18	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.18	0.18	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.18	0.18	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.18	0.18	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.18	0.18	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.17	0.17	72.73	72.73	0.08	0.08
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.17	0.17	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Lafayette	Pat	0.17	0.17	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.17	0.17	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.17	0.17	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Hawaii	BW	0.17	0.17	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.15	0.15	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Bucknell	Pat	0.15	0.15	84.38	84.38	0.10	0.10
Colgate	Pat	0.15	0.15	34.38	34.38	-0.05	-0.05
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.15	0.15	68.75	68.75	0.06	0.06
Stetson	ASun	0.15	0.15	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.15	0.15	23.33	23.33	-0.08	-0.08
Lipscomb	ASun	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.14	0.14	80.00	80.00	0.09	0.09
Boise St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	65.52	65.52	0.04	0.04
Wyoming	MWC	0.14	0.14	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	32.14	32.14	-0.05	-0.05
California	P12	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
St. Louis	A10	0.14	0.14	81.82	81.82	0.09	0.09
Baylor	B12	0.14	0.14	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.13	0.13	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.12	0.12	10.00	10.00	-0.10	-0.10
Mercer	ASun	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Idaho St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	17.24	17.24	-0.08	-0.08
Utah Valley	GWC	0.12	0.12	35.71	35.71	-0.03	-0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Tulane	CUSA	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.11	0.11	14.29	14.29	-0.08	-0.08
Notre Dame	BE	0.11	0.11	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.10	0.10	29.63	29.63	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Tulsa	CUSA	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	28.12	28.12	-0.04	-0.04
Georgetown	BE	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Davidson	SC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Arizona	P12	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Southern California	P12	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Brown	Ivy	0.07	0.07	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.07	0.07	59.26	59.26	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.06	0.06	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.05	85.19	85.19	0.04	0.04
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.02	-0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.03	0.03	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Denver	WAC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02