San Francisco

Conference:	WCC
Expected RPI:	136.0
Current RPI:	136
Expected SOS:	149
Current SOS:	149
Current Record:	18-13
Expected Record:	18-13
Current Conf Record:	10-9
Expected Conf Record:	10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-1
Current OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC RPI:	136
Expected OOC SOS:	248

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-13	136.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Francisco.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	North Dakota St. (184.0)	Sum	H	65-73	L	0%
11-12	Northern Arizona (337.0)	BSky	H	69-50	W	100%
11-13	Louisiana Lafayette (185.0)	SB	H	71-70	W	100%
11-16	San Jose St. (279.0)	WAC	H	83-81	W	100%
11-19	Seattle (277.0)	ind	A	63-69	W	100%
11-23	Dartmouth (328.0)	Ivy	N	71-69	W	100%
11-25	Murray St. (22.0)	OVC	N	67-70	L	0%
11-26	New Mexico St. (59.0)	WAC	N	71-81	L	0%
12-1	Montana (74.0)	BSky	A	62-65	W	100%
12-10	Pacific (288.0)	BW	H	79-69	W	100%
12-22	Holy Cross (177.0)	Pat	A	88-83	L	0%
12-29	Pepperdine (271.0)	WCC	A	77-61	L	0%
12-31	Loyola Marymount (118.0)	WCC	H	76-77	L	0%
1-3	Morgan St. (286.0)	MEAC	H	87-74	W	100%
1-7	Brigham Young (46.0)	WCC	A	81-56	L	0%
1-9	St. Mary's (28.0)	WCC	A	87-72	L	0%
1-12	Portland (238.0)	WCC	H	104-70	W	100%
1-14	Pepperdine (271.0)	WCC	H	78-63	W	100%
1-19	Gonzaga (25.0)	WCC	A	74-63	L	0%
1-21	Portland (238.0)	WCC	A	71-72	W	100%
1-26	Santa Clara (303.0)	WCC	A	77-90	W	100%
1-28	San Diego (192.0)	WCC	H	84-70	W	100%
2-4	Loyola Marymount (118.0)	WCC	A	90-88	L	0%
2-9	Santa Clara (303.0)	WCC	H	85-69	W	100%
2-11	San Diego (192.0)	WCC	A	70-81	W	100%
2-16	Brigham Young (46.0)	WCC	H	84-85	L	0%
2-18	Gonzaga (25.0)	WCC	H	66-65	W	100%
2-25	St. Mary's (28.0)	WCC	H	60-67	L	0%
3-1	Portland (238.0)	WCC	N	87-66	W	100%
3-2	Loyola Marymount (118.0)	WCC	N	60-67	W	100%
3-3	St. Mary's (28.0)	WCC	N	83-78	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Francisco's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

San Francisco's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against San Francisco.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
San Francisco	WCC	26.62	26.62	56.74	56.74	3.59	3.59
Portland	WCC	5.80	5.80	22.22	22.22	-3.22	-3.22
St. Mary's	WCC	5.80	5.80	81.48	81.48	3.65	3.65
Loyola Marymount	WCC	5.77	5.77	57.69	57.69	0.89	0.89
Brigham Young	WCC	4.30	4.30	72.41	72.41	1.93	1.93
Gonzaga	WCC	4.29	4.29	82.76	82.76	2.81	2.81
San Diego	WCC	4.29	4.29	40.74	40.74	-0.79	-0.79
Santa Clara	WCC	4.29	4.29	23.08	23.08	-2.31	-2.31
Pepperdine	WCC	4.27	4.27	30.77	30.77	-1.64	-1.64
Northern Arizona	BSky	1.92	1.92	11.54	11.54	-1.47	-1.47
Montana	BSky	1.81	1.81	82.14	82.14	1.16	1.16
San Jose St.	WAC	1.75	1.75	27.59	27.59	-0.79	-0.79
Morgan St.	MEAC	1.73	1.73	32.14	32.14	-0.62	-0.62
Murray St.	OVC	1.72	1.72	96.30	96.30	1.59	1.59
Seattle	ind	1.70	1.70	39.13	39.13	-0.37	-0.37
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	1.67	1.67	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Pacific	BW	1.67	1.67	33.33	33.33	-0.56	-0.56
North Dakota St.	Sum	1.67	1.67	51.85	51.85	0.06	0.06
New Mexico St.	WAC	1.67	1.67	71.88	71.88	0.73	0.73
Dartmouth	Ivy	1.64	1.64	14.29	14.29	-1.17	-1.17
Holy Cross	Pat	1.64	1.64	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.33	0.33	64.29	64.29	0.09	0.09
Hawaii	WAC	0.32	0.32	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada	WAC	0.32	0.32	80.00	80.00	0.19	0.19
Idaho St.	BSky	0.31	0.31	27.59	27.59	-0.14	-0.14
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.31	0.31	43.33	43.33	-0.04	-0.04
Weber St.	BSky	0.30	0.30	78.57	78.57	0.17	0.17
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.28	0.28	48.15	48.15	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.25	0.25	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.25	0.25	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.23	0.23	37.04	37.04	-0.06	-0.06
Cal Poly	BW	0.22	0.22	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.22	0.22	35.48	35.48	-0.06	-0.06
Harvard	Ivy	0.20	0.20	86.21	86.21	0.15	0.15
Longwood	ind	0.20	0.20	22.22	22.22	-0.11	-0.11
Idaho	WAC	0.20	0.20	55.17	55.17	0.02	0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.18	0.18	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.17	0.17	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.17	0.17	19.23	19.23	-0.11	-0.11
Columbia	Ivy	0.17	0.17	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.16	0.16	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.16	0.16	77.42	77.42	0.09	0.09
Arkansas St.	SB	0.15	0.15	39.39	39.39	-0.03	-0.03
UC Davis	BW	0.15	0.15	13.33	13.33	-0.11	-0.11
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.14	0.14	30.77	30.77	-0.05	-0.05
UCLA	P12	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.14	0.14	30.77	30.77	-0.05	-0.05
Denver	SB	0.13	0.13	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Baylor	B12	0.13	0.13	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Utah	P12	0.13	0.13	16.67	16.67	-0.09	-0.09
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Washington	P12	0.11	0.11	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.11	0.11	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
Central Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.11	0.11	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.11	0.11	81.25	81.25	0.07	0.07
Arizona	P12	0.11	0.11	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Utah Valley	GWC	0.10	0.10	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.09	29.63	29.63	-0.03	-0.03
Long Beach St.	BW	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.08	0.08	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.08	0.08	25.93	25.93	-0.04	-0.04
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Colgate	Pat	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.08	0.08	65.38	65.38	0.03	0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	6.67	6.67	-0.07	-0.07
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	94.12	94.12	0.07	0.07
Missouri St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.00	28.00	-0.03	-0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	6.90	6.90	-0.05	-0.05
Villanova	BE	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
North Dakota	GWC	0.06	0.06	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
American	Pat	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.06	0.06	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
New Hampshire	AE	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	64.29	64.29	0.01	0.01
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	18.75	18.75	-0.02	-0.02
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00