live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


San Francisco

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:68.0
Current RPI:68
Expected SOS:79
Current SOS:79
Current Record:19-11
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:14-6
Expected Conf Record:14-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:14-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-1
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:150
Expected OOC SOS:72



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1168.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Francisco.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Cleveland St. (91.0)HorzH91-82W100%0.0
11-15Nevada (137.0)MWCH90-92L0%0.0
11-18Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyH90-93L0%0.0
11-22Montana (183.0)BSkyA74-75W100%0.0
11-24Oregon (28.0)P12A100-82L0%0.0
11-29Vermont (101.0)AEH72-61W100%0.0
11-30Illinois St. (134.0)MVCH76-90L0%0.0
12-14Nicholls St. (262.0)SlndH77-48W100%0.0
12-18St. John's (67.0)BEA81-57L0%0.0
12-22American (118.0)PatH77-69W100%0.0
12-28Portland (178.0)WCCA81-87W100%0.0
12-30Gonzaga (20.0)WCCA69-41L0%0.0
1-2Loyola Marymount (179.0)WCCH75-61W100%0.0
1-4Pepperdine (159.0)WCCH76-66W100%0.0
1-9Pacific (133.0)WCCA72-81W100%0.0
1-11Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCA88-73L0%0.0
1-16BYU (31.0)WCCH76-83L0%0.0
1-18San Diego (156.0)WCCH64-62W100%0.0
1-25Santa Clara (210.0)WCCH75-66W100%0.0
1-29Portland (178.0)WCCH84-71W100%0.0
2-1Gonzaga (20.0)WCCH65-75L0%0.0
2-6San Diego (156.0)WCCA67-74W100%0.0
2-8BYU (31.0)WCCA68-63L0%0.0
2-15Santa Clara (210.0)WCCA63-69W100%0.0
2-20Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCH73-62W100%0.0
2-22Pacific (133.0)WCCH64-59W100%0.0
2-27Pepperdine (159.0)WCCA53-77W100%0.0
3-1Loyola Marymount (179.0)WCCA61-65W100%0.0
3-8San Diego (156.0)WCCN69-60W100%0.0
3-10BYU (31.0)WCCN79-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Francisco's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Francisco's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Francisco.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San FranciscoWCC26.5126.5161.2761.275.975.97
BYUWCC6.056.0563.3363.331.611.61
San DiegoWCC5.915.9151.8551.850.220.22
GonzagaWCC4.494.4980.6580.652.752.75
Saint Mary'sWCC4.434.4366.6766.671.481.48
Loyola MarymountWCC4.434.4341.3841.38-0.76-0.76
Santa ClaraWCC4.414.4141.3841.38-0.76-0.76
PacificWCC4.404.4051.8551.850.160.16
PortlandWCC4.354.3551.7251.720.150.15
PepperdineWCC4.354.3550.0050.000.000.00
OregonP121.801.8070.9770.970.750.75
MontanaBSky1.731.7355.5655.560.190.19
Idaho St.BSky1.731.7330.7730.77-0.66-0.66
NevadaMWC1.721.7245.1645.16-0.17-0.17
AmericanPat1.721.7264.5264.520.500.50
Illinois St.MVC1.691.6948.2848.28-0.06-0.06
VermontAE1.691.6968.9768.970.640.64
Cleveland St.Horz1.671.6765.5265.520.520.52
Nicholls St.Slnd1.671.6748.0048.00-0.07-0.07
St. John'sBE1.671.6761.2961.290.380.38
Southern UtahBSky0.260.263.573.57-0.24-0.24
Cal PolyBW0.220.2236.6736.67-0.06-0.06
San Jose St.MWC0.220.2217.2417.24-0.14-0.14
Portland St.BSky0.200.2051.7251.720.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.200.2048.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.200.2060.7160.710.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.180.1845.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.180.1841.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.170.1744.8344.83-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.170.1757.1457.140.020.02
BradleyMVC0.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.160.1644.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.160.1630.0030.00-0.06-0.06
IdahoWAC0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
UICHorz0.140.1413.7913.79-0.10-0.10
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.1446.1546.15-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.140.1481.8281.820.090.09
OaklandHorz0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.130.1363.3363.330.040.04
Oregon St.P120.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.130.13100.00100.000.130.13
Boise St.MWC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.120.1214.8114.81-0.08-0.08
WashingtonP120.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.110.1170.3770.370.050.05
Green BayHorz0.110.1177.7877.780.060.06
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Fresno St.MWC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1187.1087.100.080.08
Cal St. FullertonBW0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
DrakeMVC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.1178.5778.570.060.06
UNLVMWC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
UCLAP120.100.1076.4776.470.060.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1030.7730.77-0.04-0.04
AlbanyAE0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
New HampshireAE0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Northern KentuckyASun0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Arizona St.P120.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
MemphisAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
HawaiiBW0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
UMBCAE0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
DePaulBE0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
DaytonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
BucknellPat0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
ColgatePat0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
MassachusettsA100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
DetroitHorz0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
ArmyPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
LafayettePat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
NavyPat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.030.03
TroySB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
BrownIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.010.01