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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


San Francisco

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:123.6
Current RPI:203
Expected SOS:96
Current SOS:155
Current Record:5-5
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:186
Expected OOC SOS:127



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-628.00.01%
22-744.50.02%
21-848.50.32%
20-958.61.41%
19-1070.84.42%
18-1184.910.14%
17-1299.615.99%
16-13115.220.46%
15-14132.519.06%
14-15150.014.56%
13-16168.58.49%
12-17187.53.78%
11-18210.20.96%
10-19229.90.32%
9-20239.00.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Francisco.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16South Carolina St. (306.7)MEACH91-52W100%0.0
11-24Hawaii (219.5)BWN73-88W100%0.0
11-25Florida Gulf Coast (90.8)ASunN62-47L0%0.0
11-26Evansville (73.9)MVCN72-79L0%0.0
11-30Montana (163.2)BSkyH76-57W100%0.0
12-3Colorado (66.2)P12A72-55L0%0.0
12-7Houston Baptist (263.6)SlndH85-54W100%0.0
12-11Eastern Washington (58.5)BSkyH76-81L0%0.0
12-15Cal Poly (230.2)BWH71-78L0%0.0
12-18Portland St. (270.4)BSkyH77-40W100%0.0
12-21Cleveland St. (144.9)HorzA0-046%-1.2
12-27Pacific (203.2)WCCA0-063%4.0
12-29Saint Mary's (115.0)WCCA0-041%-2.6
1-1San Diego (92.4)WCCH0-062%3.5
1-3BYU (56.2)WCCH0-053%0.9
1-8Gonzaga (11.7)WCCA0-06%-18.5
1-10Portland (183.7)WCCA0-056%1.9
1-17Santa Clara (197.4)WCCA0-060%2.8
1-22Pepperdine (134.6)WCCH0-071%6.5
1-24Loyola Marymount (257.8)WCCH0-090%15.3
1-29BYU (56.2)WCCA0-025%-7.9
1-31San Diego (92.4)WCCA0-033%-5.2
2-5Portland (183.7)WCCH0-082%10.6
2-7Gonzaga (11.7)WCCH0-020%-9.8
2-12Santa Clara (197.4)WCCH0-084%11.6
2-19Loyola Marymount (257.8)WCCA0-071%6.6
2-21Pepperdine (134.6)WCCA0-042%-2.3
2-26Saint Mary's (115.0)WCCH0-070%6.2
2-28Pacific (203.2)WCCH0-086%12.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Francisco's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Francisco's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Francisco.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San FranciscoWCC28.1626.4538.6451.21-6.400.64
GonzagaWCC0.004.4790.0091.220.003.68
BYUWCC0.284.4666.6767.780.091.59
PortlandWCC0.314.4666.6749.750.10-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.364.4671.4358.080.150.72
Santa ClaraWCC0.004.4650.0041.840.00-0.73
San DiegoWCC0.004.4354.5557.640.000.68
PepperdineWCC0.004.4375.0059.590.000.85
Loyola MarymountWCC0.004.4225.0023.78-0.00-2.32
PacificWCC0.004.4250.0039.200.00-0.95
Cal PolyBW5.001.9733.3336.30-1.67-0.54
Portland St.BSky5.001.8857.1443.510.71-0.24
Eastern WashingtonBSky5.001.8562.5076.181.250.97
HawaiiBW5.001.8575.0056.942.500.26
MontanaBSky5.001.8228.5754.09-2.140.15
Cleveland St.Horz0.001.7233.3349.56-0.00-0.02
ColoradoP125.001.7262.5056.691.250.23
EvansvilleMVC5.001.7275.0070.082.500.69
Florida Gulf CoastASun5.001.7271.4370.642.140.71
Houston BaptistSlnd5.001.7225.0041.43-2.50-0.30
South Carolina St.MEAC5.001.7222.2230.92-2.78-0.66
UC IrvineBW0.000.3237.5046.78-0.00-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.2842.8642.32-0.00-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.310.2642.8643.10-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.2540.0050.78-0.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.310.2537.5064.43-0.080.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.2536.3638.88-0.00-0.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.310.2220.0028.20-0.19-0.10
Idaho St.BSky0.000.2214.2933.32-0.00-0.07
Montana St.BSky0.000.2222.2228.69-0.00-0.09
Weber St.BSky0.000.2228.5742.17-0.00-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.310.2275.0068.680.160.08
IdahoBSky0.000.1937.5049.83-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.280.1928.5757.26-0.120.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1940.0050.07-0.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.630.1930.0029.80-0.25-0.08
Arizona St.P120.000.1960.0053.820.000.01
WashingtonP120.530.19100.0071.820.530.08
San Jose St.MWC0.000.180.007.84-0.00-0.16
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1862.5054.980.000.02
Washington St.P120.000.1840.0028.86-0.00-0.08
UCLAP120.000.1872.7357.280.000.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.1625.0032.77-0.00-0.06
USCP120.310.1660.0036.120.06-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.360.1666.6757.860.120.02
StanfordP120.000.1575.0057.570.000.02
UC DavisBW0.000.1385.7161.020.000.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.1316.6727.56-0.00-0.06
CaliforniaP120.670.1390.0066.690.540.04
Colorado St.MWC0.590.13100.0078.050.590.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1244.4447.53-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1287.5085.320.000.09
Green BayHorz0.590.1275.0078.480.300.07
DrakeMVC0.000.1220.0019.99-0.00-0.07
UtahP120.000.1277.7879.480.000.07
Utah St.MWC0.000.1255.5650.970.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1280.0069.620.000.05
ArizonaP120.000.12100.0080.590.000.07
St. John'sBE0.000.1287.5065.040.000.04
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1270.0072.830.000.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1016.6719.68-0.00-0.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.280.1050.0074.000.000.05
NevadaMWC0.360.1011.1125.02-0.28-0.05
New OrleansSlnd0.000.100.0038.46-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.310.090.0023.71-0.31-0.05
LipscombASun0.280.0925.0042.64-0.14-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.280.0925.0033.17-0.14-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0937.5031.95-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.280.0940.0046.73-0.06-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0911.1144.04-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0930.0043.91-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0918.1835.99-0.00-0.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0977.7855.460.000.01
MassachusettsA100.310.0960.0055.630.060.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.310.0933.3334.28-0.10-0.03
XavierBE0.000.0980.0070.960.000.04
IUPUISum0.280.0920.0026.33-0.17-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.280.0955.5661.790.030.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0918.1828.02-0.00-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0942.8655.64-0.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.250.090.0012.36-0.25-0.07
Wright St.Horz0.280.0960.0057.600.060.01
GeorgiaSEC0.280.0962.5059.510.070.02
SMUAmer0.280.0970.0071.330.110.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.280.0911.1144.62-0.22-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0775.0074.340.000.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0714.2934.12-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0766.6777.690.000.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0725.0028.68-0.00-0.03
HoustonAmer0.500.0771.4348.860.21-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.590.0710.0030.45-0.47-0.03
OregonP120.310.0666.6758.060.100.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0610.0018.58-0.00-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0636.3633.67-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.590.0610.0018.61-0.47-0.04
MercerSC0.000.0637.5042.45-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0644.4456.91-0.000.01
PittsburghACC0.280.0666.6752.340.090.00
StetsonASun0.000.0610.0027.42-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0660.0064.620.000.02
SeattleWAC0.590.0637.5046.50-0.15-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6772.340.000.03
OhioMAC0.590.0642.8638.11-0.08-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.250.0620.0034.08-0.15-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.500.0657.1470.590.070.03
CreightonBE0.000.0672.7351.560.000.00
DenverSum0.000.0650.0054.230.000.01
IowaB100.000.0672.7362.590.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0641.6744.33-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0672.7373.150.000.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0636.3664.92-0.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0662.5073.190.000.03
RichmondA100.000.0655.5657.090.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0052.800.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0036.67-0.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0046.150.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0050.750.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0014.79-0.00-0.04
VirginiaACC0.250.06100.0085.310.250.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8638.26-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3332.09-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0644.4448.88-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0618.1821.30-0.00-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0666.6764.310.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3332.85-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4359.920.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0637.5040.20-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0690.0078.050.000.03
OaklandHorz0.000.0630.0031.57-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0627.2737.85-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0672.7363.730.000.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0660.0049.500.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0645.4544.07-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0655.5659.990.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0655.5640.500.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.040.0017.51-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0425.0049.09-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.040.0018.94-0.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.500.0460.0040.620.10-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.040.0037.73-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.500.0416.6726.28-0.33-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.500.0455.5654.950.060.00
DelawareCAA0.360.030.007.39-0.36-0.03
IPFWSum0.000.0357.1456.900.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.280.0320.0038.24-0.17-0.01
DavidsonA100.310.0387.5077.020.230.02
East CarolinaAmer0.280.0337.5038.60-0.07-0.01
FIUCUSA0.310.0344.4451.04-0.030.00
FurmanSC0.000.0325.0029.59-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.280.0362.5056.410.070.00
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6743.780.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.310.0355.5656.400.030.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0327.2738.97-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.310.0362.5054.970.080.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0033.84-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.280.0357.1461.670.040.01
AuburnSEC0.280.0344.4436.35-0.03-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.250.0350.0044.900.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.0360.0034.110.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.280.0325.0037.13-0.14-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.250.0366.6762.620.080.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0340.0050.32-0.000.00
IndianaB100.280.0380.0057.630.170.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0350.0056.340.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0023.15-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0344.4470.08-0.000.01
Texas TechB120.250.0388.8955.910.190.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.280.0333.3340.31-0.09-0.01
WyomingMWC0.280.0377.7873.370.150.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0333.3362.92-0.000.01
BelmontOVC0.280.0360.0062.970.060.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0375.0067.580.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0333.3338.99-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0355.5638.600.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0085.330.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0325.0038.92-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.280.0330.0028.50-0.11-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0360.0059.420.000.01
VCUA100.000.0370.0071.420.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0320.0041.46-0.00-0.01