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Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


San Francisco

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:227.6
Current RPI:225
Expected SOS:255
Current SOS:284
Current Record:12-10
Expected Record:14-14
Current Conf Record:6-6
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-3
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:286
Expected OOC SOS:348



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-10164.00.01%
17-11179.60.90%
16-12195.17.13%
15-13211.323.27%
14-14227.537.44%
13-15245.525.66%
12-16262.55.58%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Francisco.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Illinois Chicago (347.1)HorzA75-78W100%0.0
11-16Rice (294.0)CUSAH80-54W100%0.0
11-19Fresno St. (124.1)MWCA78-71L0%0.0
11-21UC Riverside (264.1)BWH58-57W100%0.0
11-25UC Santa Barbara (122.4)BWH61-68L0%0.0
11-29Delaware St. (349.1)MEACH67-47W100%0.0
12-1Eastern Washington (208.7)BSkyH77-81L0%0.0
12-4Montana (145.2)BSkyA82-50L0%0.0
12-7Cal St. Northridge (276.5)BWH65-61W100%0.0
12-18Coppin St. (327.5)MEACH96-93W100%0.0
12-21Saint Mary's (39.0)WCCA74-52L0%0.0
12-23Pacific (242.2)WCCH89-76W100%0.0
12-31Portland (240.6)WCCH107-95W100%0.0
1-2Gonzaga (49.0)WCCH94-102L0%0.0
1-7San Diego (288.9)WCCA65-73W100%0.0
1-9BYU (72.0)WCCA102-92L0%0.0
1-14Loyola Marymount (242.9)WCCH83-87L0%0.0
1-16Pepperdine (126.5)WCCH84-98L0%0.0
1-21Santa Clara (262.9)WCCA61-74W100%0.0
1-28Portland (240.6)WCCA76-87W100%0.0
1-30Gonzaga (49.0)WCCA86-48L0%0.0
2-6Santa Clara (262.9)WCCH89-86W100%0.0
2-11BYU (72.0)WCCH0-019%-9.4
2-13San Diego (288.9)WCCH0-075%7.2
2-18Pepperdine (126.5)WCCA0-018%-9.9
2-20Loyola Marymount (242.9)WCCA0-044%-1.5
2-25Pacific (242.2)WCCA0-037%-3.6
2-27Saint Mary's (39.0)WCCH0-09%-14.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Francisco's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Francisco's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Francisco.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San FranciscoWCC26.4326.4650.9847.080.52-1.55
PepperdineWCC3.284.6854.5554.690.300.44
Loyola MarymountWCC3.214.6436.3635.55-0.88-1.34
PacificWCC3.074.6326.3228.67-1.46-1.98
GonzagaWCC5.304.6276.1975.082.782.32
Santa ClaraWCC5.284.6133.3333.49-1.76-1.52
San DiegoWCC3.034.6133.3330.40-1.01-1.81
BYUWCC2.984.5965.2268.020.911.65
PortlandWCC5.254.5943.4841.26-0.68-0.80
Saint Mary'sWCC2.974.5885.0084.592.083.17
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2.572.1030.0029.60-1.03-0.86
UC RiversideBW2.632.1047.8343.09-0.11-0.29
Fresno St.MWC2.481.9860.0058.190.500.32
MontanaBSky2.481.9455.5660.790.280.42
Delaware St.MEAC2.371.919.5212.69-1.92-1.43
UC Santa BarbaraBW2.331.9140.0048.55-0.47-0.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.391.8950.0052.310.000.09
Coppin St.MEAC2.271.8515.0021.46-1.59-1.05
RiceCUSA2.371.8530.0030.74-0.95-0.71
Illinois ChicagoHorz2.271.795.267.51-2.03-1.52
Cal St. FullertonBW0.500.5135.0032.27-0.15-0.18
UC IrvineBW0.470.4572.7371.620.210.19
UC DavisBW0.350.3840.0036.76-0.07-0.10
Long Beach St.BW0.360.3145.4551.34-0.030.01
Cal PolyBW0.260.2830.0034.56-0.11-0.09
Sacramento St.BSky0.320.2642.1145.70-0.05-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.320.2231.5837.72-0.12-0.05
ArizonaP120.310.2279.1778.350.180.13
San Jose St.MWC0.320.2225.0022.75-0.16-0.12
Southern UtahBSky0.220.2015.0015.35-0.16-0.14
Northern ArizonaBSky0.270.1910.0013.14-0.21-0.14
NevadaMWC0.210.1955.0054.530.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.250.1963.6462.530.070.05
HawaiiBW0.160.1984.2181.700.110.12
DenverSum0.250.1954.1751.800.020.01
Weber St.BSky0.140.1965.0069.270.040.07
CaliforniaP120.220.1665.2262.840.070.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.160.1628.5726.96-0.07-0.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.210.1619.0525.89-0.13-0.08
Idaho St.BSky0.150.1645.0046.12-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.200.1656.5253.240.030.01
Colorado St.MWC0.140.1552.3850.420.010.00
New MexicoMWC0.160.1560.8763.000.030.04
Green BayHorz0.110.1354.5556.000.010.02
North DakotaBSky0.110.1347.3749.98-0.01-0.00
WashingtonP120.210.1365.2261.090.060.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.160.1359.0959.640.030.02
USCP120.160.1378.2673.050.090.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.160.1366.6767.690.050.04
Oregon St.P120.160.1361.9056.420.040.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.1333.3334.94-0.03-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1372.7372.060.050.06
LamarSlnd0.210.1230.0029.25-0.08-0.05
Utah St.MWC0.050.1245.0046.78-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.140.1269.5765.360.050.04
Montana St.BSky0.110.1040.9143.71-0.02-0.01
HowardMEAC0.110.1036.3638.93-0.03-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.1043.4850.66-0.010.00
IdahoBSky0.110.1054.5554.950.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.110.1056.5257.000.010.01
DrakeMVC0.110.1021.7423.66-0.06-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1043.4842.62-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.1059.0961.320.010.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.1029.1733.74-0.02-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.160.1052.1754.150.010.01
SeattleWAC0.160.1047.6245.00-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.150.0975.0076.230.080.05
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0956.5262.790.010.02
UNLVMWC0.160.0950.0055.190.000.01
UtahP120.100.0969.5767.490.040.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.140.0935.0034.72-0.04-0.03
AkronMAC0.110.0781.8280.030.070.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.0721.7422.73-0.06-0.04
DetroitHorz0.060.0747.6245.85-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0742.8642.01-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0733.3335.08-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.060.0768.0067.980.020.02
StanfordP120.050.0750.0046.620.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.110.0781.8283.040.070.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0730.4332.36-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.0731.8236.15-0.04-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.0725.0025.09-0.05-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.0729.1733.14-0.04-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.0738.1037.70-0.03-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.0663.1658.810.030.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0663.6459.220.010.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0613.6418.14-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.050.0663.6456.440.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0625.0024.35-0.02-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0657.8961.750.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0645.4549.70-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.110.0641.6741.24-0.02-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0613.6415.79-0.04-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0633.3335.47-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0645.4538.46-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.0624.0025.69-0.05-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.100.0630.4326.54-0.04-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0634.7840.93-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.100.0673.9172.490.050.03
LipscombASun0.100.0625.0029.27-0.05-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0671.4368.720.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.0640.0045.50-0.02-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.110.0633.3333.02-0.04-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0690.9186.160.000.04
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0631.5831.99-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.100.0647.8346.89-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.100.0678.2678.050.060.03
Washington St.P120.100.0636.3631.98-0.03-0.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0643.4842.49-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.0650.0049.770.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0640.0040.30-0.02-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0666.6766.540.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0650.0051.190.000.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0635.0038.49-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0620.0022.32-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0654.1755.070.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0672.0070.510.040.02
CreightonBE0.050.0362.5059.800.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0352.0050.240.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0336.8441.40-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0355.0052.260.010.00
IowaB100.050.0382.6180.590.040.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0373.9170.050.030.01
KansasB120.060.0381.8277.600.040.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0360.8758.370.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0363.6462.150.020.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0365.2259.750.020.01
DePaulBE0.060.0334.7834.54-0.02-0.01
IllinoisB100.060.0345.8344.12-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0354.1750.940.000.00
UCFAmer0.060.0352.3845.690.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0327.7829.14-0.03-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0354.1751.640.000.00
DavidsonA100.050.0360.0057.950.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0360.8760.760.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0340.9140.65-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0356.5256.320.010.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0376.1968.210.030.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0377.2776.870.030.02
VermontAE0.050.0352.0054.870.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0328.5731.26-0.02-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0321.7423.33-0.03-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0340.9145.29-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0322.7327.19-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0382.6181.140.030.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0352.9452.160.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.180.000.00
MichiganB100.050.0369.5766.240.020.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.420.020.01
NebraskaB100.050.0354.1751.850.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0325.0033.17-0.03-0.01
OregonP120.050.0382.6179.220.040.02
PennIvy0.050.0338.8937.62-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0333.3334.19-0.02-0.01
TCUB120.050.0345.8339.31-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0363.6459.840.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0382.6179.410.040.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0366.6770.550.020.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0352.1751.940.000.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0313.6413.62-0.04-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0345.4546.27-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.050.0361.9059.450.010.01