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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


San Francisco

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:160.4
Current RPI:148
Expected SOS:143
Current SOS:335
Current Record:6-1
Expected Record:15-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-3
Current OOC Record:6-1
Expected OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC RPI:144
Expected OOC SOS:338



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-645.50.04%
21-757.00.16%
20-872.60.91%
19-987.73.10%
18-10104.47.07%
17-11122.312.01%
16-12140.417.47%
15-13160.020.12%
14-14181.417.65%
13-15201.811.88%
12-16221.55.95%
11-17240.52.72%
10-18260.50.68%
9-19272.40.20%
8-20285.00.02%
7-21318.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Francisco.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Illinois Chicago (245.9)HorzH82-80W100%0.0
11-16UC Santa Barbara (269.9)BWA63-75W100%0.0
11-23Troy (248.5)SBH79-67W100%0.0
11-26Sacramento St. (336.4)BSkyN59-77W100%0.0
11-27Eastern Washington (201.0)BSkyA96-90L0%0.0
11-30Alcorn St. (319.5)SWACH78-65W100%0.0
12-2Lamar (302.6)SlndH82-63W100%0.0
12-16Portland St. (282.9)BSkyH0-079%9.7
12-19Abilene Christian (189.3)SlndH0-069%5.8
12-22Utah (94.3)P12N0-023%-8.8
12-29San Diego (240.5)WCCH0-078%9.2
12-31Santa Clara (246.4)WCCA0-051%0.2
1-5Gonzaga (10.0)WCCH0-09%-16.3
1-7Saint Mary's (16.1)WCCH0-013%-13.7
1-12BYU (74.5)WCCA0-015%-12.4
1-14Pacific (174.3)WCCH0-060%3.0
1-19Portland (141.2)WCCH0-055%1.5
1-21San Diego (240.5)WCCA0-060%3.0
1-26Saint Mary's (16.1)WCCA0-05%-19.9
1-28Pacific (174.3)WCCA0-039%-3.3
2-2Pepperdine (195.4)WCCH0-070%6.2
2-4Loyola Marymount (167.9)WCCH0-056%1.9
2-9Santa Clara (246.4)WCCH0-071%6.5
2-11BYU (74.5)WCCH0-031%-6.1
2-16Gonzaga (10.0)WCCA0-03%-22.5
2-18Portland (141.2)WCCA0-035%-4.7
2-23Loyola Marymount (167.9)WCCA0-036%-4.3
2-25Pepperdine (195.4)WCCA0-050%-0.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Francisco's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Francisco's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Francisco.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San FranciscoWCC28.9526.4288.8951.0322.510.54
PortlandWCC0.004.5857.1450.410.000.04
PacificWCC0.604.5742.8645.65-0.09-0.40
PepperdineWCC0.004.5742.8633.01-0.00-1.55
San DiegoWCC0.004.5737.5031.14-0.00-1.72
Loyola MarymountWCC0.004.5725.0045.21-0.00-0.44
BYUWCC0.004.5462.5066.390.001.49
GonzagaWCC0.004.54100.0092.070.003.82
Santa ClaraWCC0.004.5433.3332.32-0.00-1.61
Saint Mary'sWCC0.004.54100.0089.470.003.58
Portland St.BSky0.002.0740.0044.80-0.00-0.22
Sacramento St.BSky7.141.980.0023.16-7.14-1.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky7.141.8566.6754.092.380.15
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.001.8540.0055.78-0.000.21
UC Santa BarbaraBW7.141.850.0035.01-7.14-0.55
LamarSlnd7.141.8250.0041.930.00-0.29
Alcorn St.SWAC7.141.790.0033.58-7.14-0.59
Illinois ChicagoHorz7.141.7950.0046.490.00-0.13
TroySB7.141.7950.0037.360.00-0.45
UtahP120.001.7980.0057.470.000.27
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.3511.1120.27-0.00-0.21
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.2828.5733.56-0.00-0.09
USCP120.710.28100.0076.400.710.15
Southern UtahBSky0.000.260.0025.31-0.00-0.13
MontanaBSky0.000.2625.0048.70-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.600.2575.0062.450.300.06
Weber St.BSky0.000.2516.6749.78-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.25100.0086.650.000.18
UC IrvineBW0.000.2544.4453.29-0.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.2342.8656.48-0.000.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.2316.6740.32-0.00-0.04
Idaho St.BSky0.510.2212.5029.77-0.38-0.09
UC RiversideBW0.000.220.0031.31-0.00-0.08
NevadaMWC0.000.2277.7871.770.000.09
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.2060.0062.420.000.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.510.2012.5033.18-0.38-0.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1925.0043.29-0.00-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1962.5067.590.000.07
San Jose St.MWC0.000.1850.0040.690.00-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1885.7175.250.000.09
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.1725.0042.78-0.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.1733.3355.64-0.000.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.1642.8637.05-0.00-0.04
Oregon St.P120.510.1625.0023.62-0.26-0.09
Washington St.P120.000.1642.8629.20-0.00-0.07
UC DavisBW0.600.1650.0045.660.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.510.1642.8641.13-0.07-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.710.1650.0064.910.000.05
ArizonaP120.000.1577.7870.290.000.06
South DakotaSum0.000.1550.0046.820.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1557.1457.780.000.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1450.0057.950.000.02
StanfordP120.000.1366.6758.600.000.02
IdahoBSky0.000.1350.0053.130.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.130.0025.17-0.00-0.06
WashingtonP120.000.1357.1452.140.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.130.0038.43-0.00-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1320.0022.88-0.00-0.07
Boise St.MWC0.000.1250.0056.890.000.02
Little RockSB0.000.1266.6761.400.000.03
DaytonA100.000.1271.4373.270.000.06
Green BayHorz0.000.1237.5048.85-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1260.0069.260.000.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1012.5030.51-0.00-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.000.1040.0041.72-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1042.8650.33-0.000.00
CaliforniaP120.600.1087.5064.760.450.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.100.0038.78-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.100.0017.92-0.00-0.07
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.1020.0042.14-0.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.100.0013.32-0.00-0.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.510.1012.5033.31-0.38-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.600.1071.4360.090.260.02
HawaiiBW0.510.1042.8650.82-0.070.00
SeattleWAC1.020.0916.6738.83-0.68-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.510.0957.1443.930.07-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.530.0957.1449.640.22-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0971.4363.080.000.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0957.1453.860.000.01
UABCUSA0.510.0950.0059.840.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0017.16-0.00-0.06
BryantNEC0.510.0922.2246.51-0.28-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0966.6753.730.000.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0925.0038.98-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0720.0038.50-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0725.0055.44-0.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0755.5637.870.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.070.0023.90-0.00-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0725.0031.76-0.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0714.2943.08-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0775.0072.800.000.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.0740.0058.88-0.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0750.0066.380.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0742.8658.24-0.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.600.0771.4358.830.260.01
XavierBE0.000.0787.5070.880.000.03
DenverSum1.110.0642.8645.65-0.16-0.01
DePaulBE0.510.0671.4337.680.22-0.02
UTSACUSA1.020.0625.0029.90-0.51-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0642.8644.90-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0625.0041.19-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0675.0066.120.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0657.1464.500.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0612.5031.01-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0675.0058.720.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0628.5731.07-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0021.30-0.00-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0642.8643.55-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0650.0061.350.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0637.5037.96-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0675.0069.680.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0633.3331.35-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0685.7177.000.000.03
SamfordSC0.000.0662.5056.520.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0671.4357.210.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0026.22-0.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0070.350.000.03
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0044.180.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0637.5035.03-0.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0662.5052.060.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0637.5038.08-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0671.4368.930.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0677.7872.930.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0675.0071.330.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0625.0030.02-0.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0671.4358.170.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0020.63-0.00-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0628.5737.54-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0657.1450.790.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0644.4438.15-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0044.700.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0685.7169.920.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0655.5646.770.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0666.6751.140.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0620.0060.00-0.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0625.0023.99-0.00-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.0642.8650.57-0.000.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0462.5062.120.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0462.5058.130.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0471.4348.030.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0074.830.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.600.0350.0045.130.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.370.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.600.0357.1472.530.090.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0357.1464.540.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0328.5746.79-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.600.0357.1444.830.09-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.710.0337.5050.92-0.180.00
SMUAmer0.710.0366.6766.650.240.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0316.6730.09-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.510.0320.0022.08-0.31-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.43-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.510.0362.5054.660.130.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0316.6729.83-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6738.87-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.510.0342.8645.50-0.07-0.00
NorthwesternB100.510.0375.0066.090.260.01
South FloridaAmer0.510.0357.1433.200.07-0.01
TexasB120.510.0350.0038.730.00-0.01