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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


San Francisco

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:228.0
Current RPI:228
Expected SOS:241
Current SOS:241
Current Record:14-15
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-4
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:260
Expected OOC SOS:340



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15228.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Francisco.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Illinois Chicago (346.0)HorzA75-78W100%0.0
11-16Rice (279.0)CUSAH80-54W100%0.0
11-19Fresno St. (66.0)MWCA78-71L0%0.0
11-21UC Riverside (267.0)BWH58-57W100%0.0
11-25UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWH61-68L0%0.0
11-29Delaware St. (345.0)MEACH67-47W100%0.0
12-1Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyH77-81L0%0.0
12-4Montana (145.0)BSkyA82-50L0%0.0
12-7Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWH65-61W100%0.0
12-18Coppin St. (326.0)MEACH96-93W100%0.0
12-21Saint Mary's (38.0)WCCA74-52L0%0.0
12-23Pacific (268.0)WCCH89-76W100%0.0
12-31Portland (249.0)WCCH107-95W100%0.0
1-2Gonzaga (46.0)WCCH94-102L0%0.0
1-7San Diego (302.0)WCCA65-73W100%0.0
1-9BYU (76.0)WCCA102-92L0%0.0
1-14Loyola Marymount (223.0)WCCH83-87L0%0.0
1-16Pepperdine (129.0)WCCH84-98L0%0.0
1-21Santa Clara (251.0)WCCA61-74W100%0.0
1-28Portland (249.0)WCCA76-87W100%0.0
1-30Gonzaga (46.0)WCCA86-48L0%0.0
2-6Santa Clara (251.0)WCCH89-86W100%0.0
2-11BYU (76.0)WCCH89-114L0%0.0
2-13San Diego (302.0)WCCH68-51W100%0.0
2-18Pepperdine (129.0)WCCA72-82W100%0.0
2-20Loyola Marymount (223.0)WCCA100-87L0%0.0
2-25Pacific (268.0)WCCA79-70L0%0.0
2-27Saint Mary's (38.0)WCCH72-84L0%0.0
3-5Pepperdine (129.0)WCCN90-86L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Francisco's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Francisco's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Francisco.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San FranciscoWCC26.4726.4745.2645.26-2.51-2.51
PepperdineWCC6.236.2355.5655.560.690.69
GonzagaWCC4.634.6376.6776.672.472.47
Saint Mary'sWCC4.634.6382.7682.763.033.03
Loyola MarymountWCC4.604.6039.2939.29-0.99-0.99
BYUWCC4.544.5466.6766.671.511.51
San DiegoWCC4.514.5129.6329.63-1.84-1.84
Santa ClaraWCC4.514.5135.7135.71-1.29-1.29
PortlandWCC4.484.4837.9337.93-1.08-1.08
PacificWCC4.464.4620.8320.83-2.60-2.60
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2.042.0429.6329.63-0.83-0.83
UC RiversideBW2.022.0240.0040.00-0.40-0.40
Fresno St.MWC1.931.9370.9770.970.810.81
MontanaBSky1.891.8960.7160.710.410.41
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.841.8455.1755.170.190.19
Delaware St.MEAC1.841.8417.2417.24-1.20-1.20
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.821.8248.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Coppin St.MEAC1.781.7825.0025.00-0.89-0.89
RiceCUSA1.781.7834.4834.48-0.55-0.55
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.721.7211.1111.11-1.34-1.34
Cal St. FullertonBW0.470.4728.5728.57-0.20-0.20
UC IrvineBW0.410.4171.8871.880.180.18
UC DavisBW0.370.3732.1432.14-0.13-0.13
Long Beach St.BW0.340.3456.2556.250.040.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.270.2741.3841.38-0.05-0.05
Cal PolyBW0.260.2628.5728.57-0.11-0.11
ArizonaP120.200.2075.7675.760.110.11
HawaiiBW0.200.2083.3383.330.140.14
Portland St.BSky0.200.2037.9337.93-0.05-0.05
San Jose St.MWC0.200.2021.4321.43-0.11-0.11
Northern ArizonaBSky0.200.2010.7110.71-0.16-0.16
Weber St.BSky0.200.2074.1974.190.100.10
NevadaMWC0.180.1856.6756.670.020.02
DenverSum0.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.170.1714.2914.29-0.12-0.12
UCLAP120.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
IdahoBSky0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
CaliforniaP120.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
San Diego St.MWC0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
New MexicoMWC0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
Green BayHorz0.130.1363.6463.640.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
USCP120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
DrakeMVC0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
North DakotaBSky0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Oregon St.P120.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
WashingtonP120.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
LamarSlnd0.110.1126.9226.92-0.05-0.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1172.4172.410.050.05
ColoradoP120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0962.8662.860.020.02
SeattleWAC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0879.3179.310.050.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0680.0080.000.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0611.1111.11-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
StanfordP120.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0329.1729.17-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
KansasB120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
OregonP120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02