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Through games of Feb 26, 2017.


San Francisco

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:86.3
Current RPI:89
Expected SOS:106
Current SOS:109
Current Record:19-11
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:10-8
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-1
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:96
Expected OOC SOS:199



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1186.3100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Francisco.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Illinois Chicago (246.9)HorzH82-80W100%0.0
11-16UC Santa Barbara (325.4)BWA63-75W100%0.0
11-23Troy (192.3)SBH79-67W100%0.0
11-26Sacramento St. (306.7)BSkyN59-77W100%0.0
11-27Eastern Washington (133.9)BSkyA96-90L0%0.0
11-30Alcorn St. (223.7)SWACH78-65W100%0.0
12-2Lamar (243.8)SlndH82-63W100%0.0
12-16Portland St. (261.2)BSkyH78-82L0%0.0
12-19Abilene Christian (266.8)SlndH86-51W100%0.0
12-22Utah (82.8)P12N86-89W100%0.0
12-23Illinois St. (30.3)MVCN58-66W100%0.0
12-25San Diego St. (102.1)MWCN48-62L0%0.0
12-29San Diego (194.9)WCCH80-74W100%0.0
12-31Santa Clara (144.7)WCCA72-58L0%0.0
1-5Gonzaga (10.1)WCCH80-95L0%0.0
1-7Saint Mary's (16.3)WCCH52-63L0%0.0
1-12BYU (67.4)WCCA85-75L0%0.0
1-14Pacific (231.1)WCCH72-51W100%0.0
1-19Portland (240.0)WCCH75-50W100%0.0
1-21San Diego (194.9)WCCA43-60W100%0.0
1-26Saint Mary's (16.3)WCCA66-46L0%0.0
1-28Pacific (231.1)WCCA60-81W100%0.0
2-2Pepperdine (230.1)WCCH77-56W100%0.0
2-4Loyola Marymount (141.3)WCCH74-64W100%0.0
2-9Santa Clara (144.7)WCCH61-58W100%0.0
2-11BYU (67.4)WCCH52-68L0%0.0
2-16Gonzaga (10.1)WCCA96-61L0%0.0
2-18Portland (240.0)WCCA51-65W100%0.0
2-23Loyola Marymount (141.3)WCCA53-51L0%0.0
2-25Pepperdine (230.1)WCCA65-76W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Francisco's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Francisco's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Francisco.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San FranciscoWCC26.4126.3861.9461.946.316.30
San DiegoWCC4.304.3044.4444.44-0.48-0.48
PacificWCC4.284.2732.1432.14-1.53-1.53
GonzagaWCC4.274.2796.4396.433.973.97
PepperdineWCC4.274.2729.6329.63-1.74-1.74
PortlandWCC4.274.2729.6329.63-1.74-1.74
Loyola MarymountWCC4.274.2750.0050.000.000.00
BYUWCC4.254.2565.5265.521.321.32
Santa ClaraWCC4.244.2450.0050.000.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC4.244.2488.8988.893.303.30
Portland St.BSky1.941.9343.4843.00-0.25-0.27
Sacramento St.BSky1.861.8537.5036.43-0.46-0.50
San Diego St.MWC1.781.7853.8555.130.140.18
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.731.7365.3866.370.530.57
Abilene ChristianSlnd1.731.7340.9141.38-0.32-0.30
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.721.7216.6717.34-1.15-1.13
LamarSlnd1.701.7050.0051.610.000.05
Alcorn St.SWAC1.671.6756.5254.530.220.15
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.671.6742.8642.86-0.24-0.24
Illinois St.MVC1.671.6785.7185.711.191.19
TroySB1.671.6753.8553.060.130.10
UtahP121.671.6764.0064.250.470.47
Northern ArizonaBSky0.310.3325.0025.07-0.15-0.16
Cal St. FullertonBW0.240.2648.0048.50-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.270.2679.3179.090.160.15
USCP120.260.2672.4173.260.120.12
Southern UtahBSky0.230.2411.1111.98-0.18-0.18
MontanaBSky0.260.2448.2848.65-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.240.2356.0057.060.030.03
UCLAP120.240.2389.6690.150.190.19
ColoradoP120.240.2353.5753.810.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.240.2353.5755.070.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.230.2348.0046.19-0.01-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.230.2148.1547.91-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.150.2128.0030.25-0.07-0.08
Idaho St.BSky0.220.2114.8115.93-0.15-0.14
UC RiversideBW0.210.2024.0023.98-0.11-0.11
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.200.1962.5062.610.050.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.160.1829.6331.85-0.06-0.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.180.1840.0041.36-0.04-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.150.1776.9276.820.080.09
ValparaisoHorz0.170.1776.6776.670.090.09
Incarnate WordSlnd0.130.1630.4330.00-0.05-0.06
North DakotaBSky0.100.1565.2266.440.030.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.130.1540.0038.77-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.160.1566.6765.560.050.05
UC DavisBW0.160.1559.2658.390.030.02
HawaiiBW0.160.1550.0048.750.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.120.1530.7732.97-0.05-0.05
Oregon St.P120.150.1513.7913.43-0.11-0.11
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.160.1572.0072.040.070.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
Washington St.P120.150.1544.4441.81-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.150.1457.6957.830.020.02
South DakotaSum0.150.1465.5265.520.050.04
ArizonaP120.140.1486.6786.550.100.10
Utah ValleyWAC0.140.1440.0041.50-0.03-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.140.1356.0056.310.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.1226.9228.27-0.06-0.05
IdahoBSky0.130.1252.0053.420.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.130.1225.9325.17-0.06-0.06
CaliforniaP120.100.1267.8666.480.030.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1217.2420.08-0.08-0.07
New MexicoMWC0.100.1255.1754.850.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1237.9338.88-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.090.1248.1546.78-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.120.1232.1430.72-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.110.1181.4880.740.070.07
Green BayHorz0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
Little RockSB0.090.1142.3141.71-0.01-0.02
WyomingMWC0.120.1155.5655.160.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.120.1144.4445.15-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.1026.6727.00-0.05-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.110.1058.3359.230.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1046.4345.93-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.1047.8349.16-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.1020.8321.37-0.04-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1030.4331.29-0.04-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.0952.0053.480.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.097.698.10-0.08-0.08
Arizona St.P120.100.0946.6745.71-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0967.8666.440.030.03
SeattleWAC0.100.0940.0039.27-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.090.0965.3865.550.030.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0965.5265.520.030.03
TulsaAmer0.090.0950.0049.050.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0957.6957.810.010.01
UABCUSA0.090.0950.0052.300.000.00
BryantNEC0.090.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0844.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0825.9326.04-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0844.4445.74-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0730.7730.77-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0621.4322.28-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0640.0042.28-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0636.0040.25-0.02-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0646.1545.04-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0660.7163.340.010.02
DenverSum0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
DePaulBE0.060.0631.0330.04-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0637.0436.94-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0648.1548.26-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0646.1546.81-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.060.0686.2186.570.050.04
XavierBE0.060.0662.0762.620.020.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0633.3332.49-0.01-0.02
BelmontOVC0.060.0680.7780.770.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0619.2322.18-0.04-0.03
BradleyMVC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0651.8550.780.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0680.7781.310.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.060.0623.0822.49-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.060.0675.8675.860.030.03
SamfordSC0.060.0653.5752.980.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0630.7730.93-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.060.0664.2963.720.020.02
UNLVMWC0.060.0634.4833.87-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0644.8345.81-0.01-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0686.6786.670.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0611.1111.53-0.05-0.04
AkronMAC0.060.0678.5778.180.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0666.6765.850.010.02
FloridaSEC0.060.0679.3179.350.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0659.2658.100.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0661.5460.990.010.01
Iowa St.B120.060.0667.8666.170.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0648.2847.58-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.060.001.83-0.06-0.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0642.3142.60-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.060.0650.0051.170.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0656.0054.920.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0655.1752.800.010.00
IllinoisB100.050.0557.1457.010.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0575.0075.780.030.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.4833.33-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.040.0359.2659.260.010.01
OklahomaB120.040.0335.7135.48-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0353.5752.450.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.8668.870.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0340.7439.61-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
SMUAmer0.030.0386.2186.520.020.02
ButlerBE0.030.0379.3179.350.020.02
ElonCAA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0346.1546.13-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0368.9767.270.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.7136.08-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.0035.98-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.10-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0357.1456.900.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
TexasB120.030.0334.4834.12-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0324.0025.26-0.02-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0323.0823.48-0.02-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0323.0824.04-0.02-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0325.9325.22-0.01-0.01