live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


San Francisco

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:96.1
Current RPI:239
Expected SOS:113
Current SOS:324
Current Record:1-0
Expected Record:17-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:1-0
Expected OOC Record:7-2
Expected OOC RPI:93
Expected OOC SOS:233



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-24.00.01%
24-314.50.02%
23-420.90.30%
22-524.40.95%
21-634.03.02%
20-743.96.27%
19-856.611.57%
18-971.715.43%
17-1088.917.71%
16-11107.117.12%
15-12126.612.45%
14-13148.48.44%
13-14167.94.25%
12-15189.41.55%
11-16211.20.61%
10-17238.20.22%
9-18258.70.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Francisco.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16South Carolina St. (291.4)MEACH91-52W100%0.0
11-24Hawaii (208.1)BWN0-073%7.3
11-30Montana (208.9)BSkyH0-084%11.9
12-3Colorado (74.9)P12A0-030%-6.2
12-7Houston Baptist (321.6)SlndH0-097%21.8
12-11Eastern Washington (92.0)BSkyH0-067%5.2
12-15Cal Poly (207.4)BWH0-085%12.6
12-18Portland St. (218.0)BSkyH0-087%13.5
12-21Cleveland St. (166.2)HorzA0-055%1.4
12-27Pacific (231.5)WCCA0-071%6.8
12-29Saint Mary's (40.9)WCCA0-027%-7.5
1-1San Diego (122.8)WCCH0-070%6.2
1-3BYU (34.5)WCCH0-047%-0.8
1-8Gonzaga (14.1)WCCA0-010%-15.4
1-10Portland (152.7)WCCA0-052%0.7
1-17Santa Clara (167.4)WCCA0-053%0.9
1-22Pepperdine (152.9)WCCH0-074%7.7
1-24Loyola Marymount (228.1)WCCH0-088%13.8
1-29BYU (34.5)WCCA0-025%-8.0
1-31San Diego (122.8)WCCA0-047%-1.0
2-5Portland (152.7)WCCH0-075%7.9
2-7Gonzaga (14.1)WCCH0-025%-8.2
2-12Santa Clara (167.4)WCCH0-075%8.1
2-19Loyola Marymount (228.1)WCCA0-071%6.7
2-21Pepperdine (152.9)WCCA0-052%0.5
2-26Saint Mary's (40.9)WCCH0-049%-0.3
2-28Pacific (231.5)WCCH0-088%13.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Francisco's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Francisco's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Francisco.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San FranciscoWCC33.3326.53100.0060.3533.335.49
GonzagaWCC0.004.83100.0087.530.003.63
BYUWCC0.004.83100.0070.510.001.98
PortlandWCC0.004.83100.0052.830.000.27
Saint Mary'sWCC0.004.83100.0072.580.002.18
Santa ClaraWCC0.004.8250.0045.590.00-0.43
PepperdineWCC0.004.79100.0051.880.000.18
Loyola MarymountWCC0.004.7933.3327.61-0.00-2.14
San DiegoWCC0.004.7966.6748.850.00-0.11
PacificWCC0.004.7850.0030.730.00-1.84
Cal PolyBW0.002.1350.0038.680.00-0.48
Portland St.BSky0.002.02100.0051.910.000.08
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.001.9966.6769.530.000.78
HawaiiBW0.001.9975.0055.940.000.24
MontanaBSky0.001.950.0049.23-0.00-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.001.8533.3346.99-0.00-0.11
ColoradoP120.001.8566.6760.390.000.38
Houston BaptistSlnd0.001.850.0026.70-0.00-0.86
South Carolina St.MEAC50.001.850.0033.90-50.00-0.60
UC IrvineBW0.000.3550.0063.070.000.09
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.3050.0046.250.00-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.290.0028.19-0.00-0.13
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.2833.3335.92-0.00-0.08
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.2733.3354.70-0.000.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.2550.0044.170.00-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.000.240.0028.34-0.00-0.11
Boise St.MWC0.000.2475.0063.040.000.06
Montana St.BSky0.000.240.0023.51-0.00-0.13
Weber St.BSky0.000.240.0048.20-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.210.0055.87-0.000.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.2133.3353.79-0.000.02
WashingtonP128.330.21100.0057.548.330.03
IdahoBSky0.000.2150.0047.120.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.210.0053.10-0.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.200.0017.53-0.00-0.13
Washington St.P120.000.2033.3327.58-0.00-0.09
Arizona St.P120.000.20100.0056.330.000.03
UCLAP120.000.20100.0062.510.000.05
Fresno St.MWC0.000.180.0033.08-0.00-0.06
NortheasternCAA0.000.17100.0071.440.000.07
North DakotaBSky0.000.170.0044.01-0.00-0.02
USCP120.000.1750.0027.780.00-0.08
StanfordP120.000.1775.0071.090.000.07
UC DavisBW0.000.15100.0042.650.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.14100.0054.710.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.140.0019.17-0.00-0.09
Utah St.MWC0.000.1475.0057.480.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1433.3341.92-0.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.1475.0069.830.000.05
San Diego St.MWC0.000.13100.0080.630.000.08
UtahP120.000.1366.6769.700.000.05
ArizonaP120.000.13100.0069.320.000.05
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1366.6754.020.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.110.0028.76-0.00-0.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1166.6767.990.000.04
NevadaMWC0.000.1133.3346.76-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.110.0033.75-0.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.1133.3332.78-0.00-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1033.3344.56-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.100.0034.07-0.00-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.100.0033.98-0.00-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.100.0018.27-0.00-0.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.10100.0064.090.000.03
HowardMEAC0.000.100.0035.51-0.00-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.100.0040.40-0.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.10100.0049.460.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.100.0033.14-0.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1050.0041.720.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1066.6758.190.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.1050.0068.880.000.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.100.0037.22-0.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.08100.0052.260.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.080.0034.03-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.080.0067.09-0.000.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.080.0050.76-0.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.070.0031.63-0.00-0.03
HoustonAmer0.000.07100.0065.060.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0766.6771.600.000.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0750.0042.680.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.07100.0071.440.000.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.07100.0085.100.000.05
XavierBE0.000.07100.0077.070.000.04
Colorado St.MWC0.000.07100.0062.400.000.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0733.3349.04-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0750.0053.000.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.070.0037.13-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.070.0063.56-0.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0055.850.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0750.0061.440.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.070.0025.08-0.00-0.03
IowaB100.000.0750.0065.570.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0750.0031.810.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0720.0027.80-0.00-0.03
MassachusettsA100.000.0775.0060.410.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0750.0071.840.000.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0725.0066.02-0.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0766.6767.450.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0039.36-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.07100.0052.540.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0775.0053.210.000.00
VirginiaACC8.330.06100.0075.728.330.03
DetroitHorz0.000.0633.3354.50-0.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0067.49-0.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0625.0035.65-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.060.0066.25-0.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0032.48-0.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0037.110.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0666.6758.650.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0625.0035.61-0.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.040.0019.92-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.040.0044.91-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.040.0034.81-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.04100.0042.120.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.040.0053.00-0.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0433.3327.11-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0475.0057.060.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0425.0033.97-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0475.0055.790.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.0466.6752.320.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0466.6750.790.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.040.0038.72-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.040.0029.55-0.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0450.0063.720.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0350.0053.040.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0044.810.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.030.0042.57-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0045.890.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6740.400.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0325.0056.39-0.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0033.68-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0037.850.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.030.0032.23-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.030.0035.11-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.030.0046.56-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0325.0051.56-0.000.00
IndianaB100.000.03100.0062.040.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.030.0042.80-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0333.3345.85-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.17-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0072.02-0.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3340.99-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0366.6746.900.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0366.6749.370.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0070.850.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0061.500.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0033.25-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6766.670.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0031.61-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0078.630.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6751.200.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0333.3364.19-0.000.01
VCUA100.000.03100.0073.570.000.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.030.0049.23-0.00-0.00