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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Florida International

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:212.8
Current RPI:218
Expected SOS:154
Current SOS:165
Current Record:7-14
Expected Record:10-17
Current Conf Record:4-6
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Probability of Auto Bid:1.12%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-5
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:212
Expected OOC SOS:82



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-14164.71.29%
12-15181.49.12%
11-16198.123.83%
10-17213.932.96%
9-18228.824.04%
8-19243.27.63%
7-20257.31.12%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida International.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14George Mason (94.6)CAAN76-79W100%0.0
11-15Virginia Tech (93.2)ACCA78-63L0%0.0
11-21Arkansas Pine Bluff (327.1)SWACN56-58L0%0.0
11-22Oral Roberts (43.6)SumA73-65L0%0.0
11-26Coastal Carolina (116.0)BSthH64-62W100%0.0
12-1Georgia St. (125.1)CAAA73-47L0%0.0
12-3Alabama St. (301.5)SWACH57-60L0%0.0
12-11Stephen F. Austin (244.7)SlndA56-58W100%0.0
12-14Maryland (112.8)ACCA65-61L0%0.0
12-17Dayton (77.1)A10A61-40L0%0.0
12-22Bowling Green (155.1)MACH53-61L0%0.0
12-29Middle Tennessee (49.6)SBA71-66L0%0.0
12-31Western Kentucky (240.2)SBA63-81W100%0.0
1-7Louisiana Monroe (323.3)SBH50-54L0%0.0
1-12Middle Tennessee (49.6)SBH59-70L0%0.0
1-14Louisiana Lafayette (159.3)SBA87-81L0%0.0
1-19South Alabama (196.0)SBA62-65W100%0.0
1-21Florida Atlantic (179.8)SBH64-66L0%0.0
1-28Western Kentucky (240.2)SBH51-61L0%0.0
2-2Troy (274.9)SBA50-63W100%0.0
2-4Florida Atlantic (179.8)SBA56-76W100%0.0
2-9North Texas (203.3)SBH0-054%1.2
2-11Denver (91.3)SBH0-031%-5.5
2-16Arkansas Little Rock (187.7)SBA0-036%-3.8
2-18Arkansas St. (228.9)SBA0-045%-1.4
2-23Troy (274.9)SBH0-074%7.0
2-25South Alabama (196.0)SBH0-063%3.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida International's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida International's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida International.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida InternationalSB26.4426.2238.7439.71-5.96-5.39
Florida AtlanticSB5.284.5035.0038.93-1.58-1.00
Western KentuckySB5.144.4833.3333.33-1.71-1.49
Middle TennesseeSB5.154.4481.8283.643.282.99
South AlabamaSB2.954.4355.0055.750.300.51
TroySB3.014.4330.0031.59-1.20-1.63
Arkansas Little RockSB0.472.5443.4843.56-0.06-0.33
Arkansas St.SB0.362.5237.5037.74-0.09-0.62
DenverSB0.422.5170.8372.330.171.12
Louisiana LafayetteSB2.862.5152.1753.130.120.16
Louisiana MonroeSB2.702.514.555.62-2.45-2.23
North TexasSB0.422.5150.0050.190.000.01
George MasonCAA2.541.9579.1774.921.480.97
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.491.9513.6421.89-1.81-1.10
Georgia St.CAA2.541.9565.2268.650.770.73
Alabama St.SWAC2.501.9526.3234.98-1.19-0.59
Bowling GreenMAC2.481.9245.0047.00-0.25-0.12
Oral RobertsSum2.431.9180.0080.111.461.15
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.441.8850.0052.780.000.10
Virginia TechACC2.441.8854.5553.710.220.14
MarylandACC2.431.8857.1449.120.35-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth2.381.8576.4774.971.260.92
DaytonA102.381.8559.0959.620.430.36
Mississippi St.SEC0.270.2878.2672.340.150.12
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.310.2580.0078.060.180.14
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.230.2457.1460.750.030.05
Austin PeayOVC0.300.2233.3335.97-0.10-0.06
Louisiana St.SEC0.230.2159.0957.280.040.03
UABCUSA0.210.2140.9139.82-0.04-0.04
Southern UtahSum0.160.2045.4544.30-0.01-0.02
BelmontASun0.260.2069.5773.280.100.09
Alabama A&MSWAC0.220.2017.6527.10-0.14-0.09
Alcorn St.SWAC0.170.2016.6723.02-0.11-0.11
AkronMAC0.210.1968.1867.910.080.07
NC WilmingtonCAA0.250.1839.1336.10-0.05-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.1718.1821.13-0.08-0.10
Texas TechB120.170.1731.8225.98-0.06-0.08
East Tennessee St.ASun0.170.1752.3852.860.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.170.1730.0034.15-0.07-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.110.1755.0054.480.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.160.1672.7371.710.070.07
GramblingSWAC0.110.1615.0015.73-0.08-0.11
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1619.0525.52-0.07-0.08
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.180.1635.0040.78-0.05-0.03
ClemsonACC0.180.1650.0048.360.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.250.1663.6456.710.070.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1631.8242.13-0.04-0.02
Miami FLACC0.160.1665.0060.020.050.03
HofstraCAA0.210.1632.0035.39-0.07-0.05
IUPUISum0.150.1634.7835.50-0.05-0.05
DuquesneA100.210.1659.0956.350.040.02
VirginiaACC0.100.1581.8276.800.060.08
Nicholls St.Slnd0.150.1325.0023.75-0.08-0.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.230.1327.7829.58-0.10-0.05
LamarSlnd0.050.1361.9067.230.010.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.200.1356.5253.100.030.01
Kent St.MAC0.110.1371.4369.050.050.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.170.1350.0058.160.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.110.1345.0046.13-0.01-0.01
St. LouisA100.160.1377.2777.670.090.07
Murray St.OVC0.160.13100.0094.550.160.11
DelawareCAA0.140.1247.8350.65-0.010.00
DukeACC0.110.1286.3683.090.080.08
James MadisonCAA0.140.1240.0040.18-0.03-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.200.1220.8320.60-0.12-0.07
High PointBSth0.070.1131.8232.75-0.02-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.130.1133.3333.82-0.04-0.03
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.070.1176.1975.940.040.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.1126.3229.79-0.03-0.04
LibertyBSth0.120.1027.2727.21-0.05-0.05
CampbellBSth0.120.1056.0055.650.010.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.060.1085.7182.180.040.07
Georgia SouthernSC0.110.1040.0041.30-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1059.0957.760.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.1041.1842.61-0.02-0.01
RadfordBSth0.170.108.7013.10-0.14-0.07
PortlandWCC0.160.1021.7421.70-0.09-0.05
WashingtonP120.160.1069.5766.540.060.03
TulsaCUSA0.100.1060.8759.050.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.110.0968.4266.450.040.03
LouisvilleBE0.100.0978.2672.660.060.04
OhioMAC0.060.0981.8277.200.040.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.160.0962.5062.490.040.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.094.359.66-0.09-0.08
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.0940.9138.38-0.02-0.02
TempleA100.160.0977.2775.060.090.05
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0954.1757.200.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.0961.9063.520.030.02
Southern MethodistCUSA0.100.0938.1037.86-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.150.0979.1778.100.090.05
Georgia TechACC0.050.0939.1342.12-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.110.0986.9683.160.080.06
NortheasternCAA0.050.0947.8348.56-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.100.0960.0059.060.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.160.0947.8343.66-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.100.0912.5013.44-0.07-0.07
XavierA100.100.0965.2263.740.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0930.4326.44-0.02-0.04
Old DominionCAA0.100.0960.0058.290.020.02
TowsonCAA0.140.094.005.26-0.13-0.08
Western IllinoisSum0.100.0952.6348.410.01-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.160.0945.4540.70-0.01-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.130.0755.0060.330.010.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.130.0734.7838.77-0.04-0.02
NC AshevilleBSth0.070.0768.1867.640.020.03
PresbyterianBSth0.130.0740.9143.66-0.02-0.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.070.0745.0044.15-0.01-0.01
Texas St.Slnd0.140.0722.2227.62-0.08-0.03
The CitadelSC0.070.079.5211.44-0.05-0.05
Texas A&MB120.120.0752.3846.150.01-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.110.0758.3359.980.020.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0727.7829.87-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.110.0765.2263.790.030.02
HarvardIvy0.110.0790.4887.910.090.05
Indiana St.MVC0.100.0756.5254.220.010.01
KansasB120.110.0778.2678.390.060.04
SienaMAAC0.110.0745.4545.55-0.01-0.01
South FloridaBE0.110.0754.5548.600.01-0.00
Texas El PasoCUSA0.120.0743.4843.31-0.02-0.01
DetroitHorz0.120.0647.8349.03-0.01-0.00
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0642.8643.45-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.100.0647.6248.83-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.060.0676.1972.910.030.03
NC GreensboroSC0.100.0634.7833.46-0.03-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.0634.7832.06-0.03-0.02
UCLAP120.100.0654.5556.790.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0669.5765.870.040.02
CincinnatiBE0.110.0669.5765.470.040.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.0634.7838.42-0.03-0.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0634.7832.08-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0679.1780.100.030.04
AlabamaSEC0.110.0668.1869.100.040.02
SamfordSC0.100.0633.3335.26-0.03-0.02
Seattleind0.000.0623.5333.28-0.00-0.02
AlbanyAE0.100.0660.0060.420.020.01
MinnesotaB100.100.0669.5761.310.040.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0670.8364.420.020.02
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0635.0035.31-0.01-0.02
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.090.0634.7835.20-0.03-0.02
MonmouthNEC0.100.0628.0028.91-0.04-0.03
OaklandSum0.090.0648.0050.21-0.000.00
South DakotaSum0.090.0626.3228.83-0.04-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0673.9175.490.040.03
East CarolinaCUSA0.070.0444.4441.71-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0460.8759.760.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0434.7834.61-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0455.0054.800.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0438.8943.93-0.02-0.00
OregonP120.070.0469.5764.530.030.01
TexasB120.000.0460.8761.370.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0345.4544.02-0.01-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.060.0359.0959.720.010.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0382.6181.440.030.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0345.4544.66-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0355.0057.410.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0342.8641.13-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0365.0066.700.010.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0074.610.000.02
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0371.4366.600.020.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0328.5734.20-0.02-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0366.6760.800.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0345.4541.20-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0325.0028.52-0.02-0.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0318.1822.22-0.04-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0362.5062.060.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0395.8392.570.000.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0345.4546.99-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0313.6416.14-0.04-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0330.0031.54-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.035.267.30-0.05-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.000.0342.8645.80-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0368.0070.030.020.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0356.5253.770.010.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.000.0390.9187.740.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0338.1040.81-0.00-0.01
Utah St.WAC0.000.0350.0052.930.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0365.2263.610.020.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0340.9142.96-0.01-0.00
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0356.5257.720.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0376.1970.730.000.01
CharlotteA100.000.0350.0049.450.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.050.0366.6762.650.020.01
CornellIvy0.050.0336.8441.45-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0354.5554.300.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0350.0048.900.00-0.00
FordhamA100.000.0340.9134.50-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0372.7364.430.020.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0330.0030.06-0.02-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0370.8368.820.020.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0373.9168.580.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0326.0928.60-0.03-0.01
Notre DameBE0.050.0365.2262.650.020.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.490.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0365.2263.740.020.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0310.0014.93-0.04-0.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.050.0354.5556.090.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0347.6247.18-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.050.0354.5557.690.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0347.3742.16-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0356.5248.810.01-0.00
Brigham YoungWCC0.050.0375.0076.000.030.02
BrownIvy0.050.0327.2723.80-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.050.0373.9175.000.020.01
DePaulBE0.050.0350.0042.830.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0381.8281.490.030.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0372.7368.280.020.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0368.0069.070.020.01
MichiganB100.050.0372.7366.810.020.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0369.5768.900.020.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0368.1869.680.020.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0345.8346.68-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.050.0359.0954.700.010.00
SyracuseBE0.050.0395.8392.010.050.03
West VirginiaBE0.050.0365.2265.170.010.01