Florida International

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	212.8
Current RPI:	218
Expected SOS:	154
Current SOS:	165
Current Record:	7-14
Expected Record:	10-17
Current Conf Record:	4-6
Expected Conf Record:	7-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	1.12%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-5
Current OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC RPI:	212
Expected OOC SOS:	82

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-14	164.7	1.29%
12-15	181.4	9.12%
11-16	198.1	23.83%
10-17	213.9	32.96%
9-18	228.8	24.04%
8-19	243.2	7.63%
7-20	257.3	1.12%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida International.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-14	George Mason (94.6)	CAA	N	76-79	W	100%	0.0
11-15	Virginia Tech (93.2)	ACC	A	78-63	L	0%	0.0
11-21	Arkansas Pine Bluff (327.1)	SWAC	N	56-58	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Oral Roberts (43.6)	Sum	A	73-65	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Coastal Carolina (116.0)	BSth	H	64-62	W	100%	0.0
12-1	Georgia St. (125.1)	CAA	A	73-47	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Alabama St. (301.5)	SWAC	H	57-60	L	0%	0.0
12-11	Stephen F. Austin (244.7)	Slnd	A	56-58	W	100%	0.0
12-14	Maryland (112.8)	ACC	A	65-61	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Dayton (77.1)	A10	A	61-40	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Bowling Green (155.1)	MAC	H	53-61	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Middle Tennessee (49.6)	SB	A	71-66	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Western Kentucky (240.2)	SB	A	63-81	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Louisiana Monroe (323.3)	SB	H	50-54	L	0%	0.0
1-12	Middle Tennessee (49.6)	SB	H	59-70	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Louisiana Lafayette (159.3)	SB	A	87-81	L	0%	0.0
1-19	South Alabama (196.0)	SB	A	62-65	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Florida Atlantic (179.8)	SB	H	64-66	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Western Kentucky (240.2)	SB	H	51-61	L	0%	0.0
2-2	Troy (274.9)	SB	A	50-63	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Florida Atlantic (179.8)	SB	A	56-76	W	100%	0.0
2-9	North Texas (203.3)	SB	H	0-0		54%	1.2
2-11	Denver (91.3)	SB	H	0-0		31%	-5.5
2-16	Arkansas Little Rock (187.7)	SB	A	0-0		36%	-3.8
2-18	Arkansas St. (228.9)	SB	A	0-0		45%	-1.4
2-23	Troy (274.9)	SB	H	0-0		74%	7.0
2-25	South Alabama (196.0)	SB	H	0-0		63%	3.7

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida International's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Florida International's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Florida International.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Florida International	SB	26.44	26.22	38.74	39.71	-5.96	-5.39
Florida Atlantic	SB	5.28	4.50	35.00	38.93	-1.58	-1.00
Western Kentucky	SB	5.14	4.48	33.33	33.33	-1.71	-1.49
Middle Tennessee	SB	5.15	4.44	81.82	83.64	3.28	2.99
South Alabama	SB	2.95	4.43	55.00	55.75	0.30	0.51
Troy	SB	3.01	4.43	30.00	31.59	-1.20	-1.63
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.47	2.54	43.48	43.56	-0.06	-0.33
Arkansas St.	SB	0.36	2.52	37.50	37.74	-0.09	-0.62
Denver	SB	0.42	2.51	70.83	72.33	0.17	1.12
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	2.86	2.51	52.17	53.13	0.12	0.16
Louisiana Monroe	SB	2.70	2.51	4.55	5.62	-2.45	-2.23
North Texas	SB	0.42	2.51	50.00	50.19	0.00	0.01
George Mason	CAA	2.54	1.95	79.17	74.92	1.48	0.97
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	2.49	1.95	13.64	21.89	-1.81	-1.10
Georgia St.	CAA	2.54	1.95	65.22	68.65	0.77	0.73
Alabama St.	SWAC	2.50	1.95	26.32	34.98	-1.19	-0.59
Bowling Green	MAC	2.48	1.92	45.00	47.00	-0.25	-0.12
Oral Roberts	Sum	2.43	1.91	80.00	80.11	1.46	1.15
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	2.44	1.88	50.00	52.78	0.00	0.10
Virginia Tech	ACC	2.44	1.88	54.55	53.71	0.22	0.14
Maryland	ACC	2.43	1.88	57.14	49.12	0.35	-0.03
Coastal Carolina	BSth	2.38	1.85	76.47	74.97	1.26	0.92
Dayton	A10	2.38	1.85	59.09	59.62	0.43	0.36
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.27	0.28	78.26	72.34	0.15	0.12
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.31	0.25	80.00	78.06	0.18	0.14
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.23	0.24	57.14	60.75	0.03	0.05
Austin Peay	OVC	0.30	0.22	33.33	35.97	-0.10	-0.06
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.23	0.21	59.09	57.28	0.04	0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.21	0.21	40.91	39.82	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Utah	Sum	0.16	0.20	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.02
Belmont	ASun	0.26	0.20	69.57	73.28	0.10	0.09
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.22	0.20	17.65	27.10	-0.14	-0.09
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.17	0.20	16.67	23.02	-0.11	-0.11
Akron	MAC	0.21	0.19	68.18	67.91	0.08	0.07
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.25	0.18	39.13	36.10	-0.05	-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.13	0.17	18.18	21.13	-0.08	-0.10
Texas Tech	B12	0.17	0.17	31.82	25.98	-0.06	-0.08
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.17	0.17	52.38	52.86	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.17	0.17	30.00	34.15	-0.07	-0.05
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.11	0.17	55.00	54.48	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.16	0.16	72.73	71.71	0.07	0.07
Grambling	SWAC	0.11	0.16	15.00	15.73	-0.08	-0.11
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.11	0.16	19.05	25.52	-0.07	-0.08
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.18	0.16	35.00	40.78	-0.05	-0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.18	0.16	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.25	0.16	63.64	56.71	0.07	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.16	31.82	42.13	-0.04	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.16	0.16	65.00	60.02	0.05	0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.21	0.16	32.00	35.39	-0.07	-0.05
IUPUI	Sum	0.15	0.16	34.78	35.50	-0.05	-0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.21	0.16	59.09	56.35	0.04	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.15	81.82	76.80	0.06	0.08
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.15	0.13	25.00	23.75	-0.08	-0.07
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.23	0.13	27.78	29.58	-0.10	-0.05
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.13	61.90	67.23	0.01	0.04
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.20	0.13	56.52	53.10	0.03	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.11	0.13	71.43	69.05	0.05	0.05
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.17	0.13	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.13	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.16	0.13	77.27	77.67	0.09	0.07
Murray St.	OVC	0.16	0.13	100.00	94.55	0.16	0.11
Delaware	CAA	0.14	0.12	47.83	50.65	-0.01	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.11	0.12	86.36	83.09	0.08	0.08
James Madison	CAA	0.14	0.12	40.00	40.18	-0.03	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.20	0.12	20.83	20.60	-0.12	-0.07
High Point	BSth	0.07	0.11	31.82	32.75	-0.02	-0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.13	0.11	33.33	33.82	-0.04	-0.03
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.07	0.11	76.19	75.94	0.04	0.06
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.07	0.11	26.32	29.79	-0.03	-0.04
Liberty	BSth	0.12	0.10	27.27	27.21	-0.05	-0.05
Campbell	BSth	0.12	0.10	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.06	0.10	85.71	82.18	0.04	0.07
Georgia Southern	SC	0.11	0.10	40.00	41.30	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.10	0.10	59.09	57.76	0.02	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	41.18	42.61	-0.02	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.17	0.10	8.70	13.10	-0.14	-0.07
Portland	WCC	0.16	0.10	21.74	21.70	-0.09	-0.05
Washington	P12	0.16	0.10	69.57	66.54	0.06	0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.10	0.10	60.87	59.05	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.11	0.09	68.42	66.45	0.04	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.09	78.26	72.66	0.06	0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.09	81.82	77.20	0.04	0.05
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.16	0.09	62.50	62.49	0.04	0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.10	0.09	4.35	9.66	-0.09	-0.08
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.09	40.91	38.38	-0.02	-0.02
Temple	A10	0.16	0.09	77.27	75.06	0.09	0.05
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.09	54.17	57.20	0.00	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.14	0.09	61.90	63.52	0.03	0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.09	38.10	37.86	-0.02	-0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.15	0.09	79.17	78.10	0.09	0.05
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.09	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.11	0.09	86.96	83.16	0.08	0.06
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.09	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.09	60.00	59.06	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.16	0.09	47.83	43.66	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.10	0.09	12.50	13.44	-0.07	-0.07
Xavier	A10	0.10	0.09	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.09	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.04
Old Dominion	CAA	0.10	0.09	60.00	58.29	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.14	0.09	4.00	5.26	-0.13	-0.08
Western Illinois	Sum	0.10	0.09	52.63	48.41	0.01	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.16	0.09	45.45	40.70	-0.01	-0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.13	0.07	55.00	60.33	0.01	0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.13	0.07	34.78	38.77	-0.04	-0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.07	0.07	68.18	67.64	0.02	0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.13	0.07	40.91	43.66	-0.02	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.07	0.07	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.14	0.07	22.22	27.62	-0.08	-0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.07	0.07	9.52	11.44	-0.05	-0.05
Texas A&M	B12	0.12	0.07	52.38	46.15	0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.11	0.07	58.33	59.98	0.02	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.07	0.07	27.78	29.87	-0.03	-0.03
American	Pat	0.11	0.07	65.22	63.79	0.03	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.11	0.07	90.48	87.91	0.09	0.05
Indiana St.	MVC	0.10	0.07	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.11	0.07	78.26	78.39	0.06	0.04
Siena	MAAC	0.11	0.07	45.45	45.55	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.11	0.07	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.12	0.07	43.48	43.31	-0.02	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.12	0.06	47.83	49.03	-0.01	-0.00
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.06	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.10	0.06	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	76.19	72.91	0.03	0.03
NC Greensboro	SC	0.10	0.06	34.78	33.46	-0.03	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.10	0.06	34.78	32.06	-0.03	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.10	0.06	54.55	56.79	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.06	69.57	65.87	0.04	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.11	0.06	69.57	65.47	0.04	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.11	0.06	34.78	38.42	-0.03	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.06	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.06	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.11	0.06	68.18	69.10	0.04	0.02
Samford	SC	0.10	0.06	33.33	35.26	-0.03	-0.02
Seattle	ind	0.00	0.06	23.53	33.28	-0.00	-0.02
Albany	AE	0.10	0.06	60.00	60.42	0.02	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.06	69.57	61.31	0.04	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.06	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.06	35.00	35.31	-0.01	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.09	0.06	34.78	35.20	-0.03	-0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.10	0.06	28.00	28.91	-0.04	-0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.09	0.06	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.09	0.06	26.32	28.83	-0.04	-0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.06	73.91	75.49	0.04	0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.07	0.04	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.00	0.04	60.87	59.76	0.00	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.00	0.04	34.78	34.61	-0.00	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.00	0.04	55.00	54.80	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.07	0.04	38.89	43.93	-0.02	-0.00
Oregon	P12	0.07	0.04	69.57	64.53	0.03	0.01
Texas	B12	0.00	0.04	60.87	61.37	0.00	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.03	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.03	59.09	59.72	0.01	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.03	82.61	81.44	0.03	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.00	0.03	55.00	57.41	0.00	0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.00	0.03	42.86	41.13	-0.00	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.03	65.00	66.70	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.00	0.03	75.00	74.61	0.00	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.03	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.00	0.03	66.67	60.80	0.00	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.03	25.00	28.52	-0.02	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.03	18.18	22.22	-0.04	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.00	0.03	62.50	62.06	0.00	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.00	0.03	95.83	92.57	0.00	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.00	0.03	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.03	13.64	16.14	-0.04	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.00	0.03	30.00	31.54	-0.00	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.03	5.26	7.30	-0.05	-0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.00	0.03	42.86	45.80	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.03	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.00	0.03	90.91	87.74	0.00	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.00	0.03	38.10	40.81	-0.00	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.00	0.03	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.06	0.03	65.22	63.61	0.02	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.03	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.00	0.03	56.52	57.72	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.00	0.03	76.19	70.73	0.00	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.00	0.03	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.03	36.84	41.45	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.03	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.00	0.03	40.91	34.50	-0.00	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.03	72.73	64.43	0.02	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.03	30.00	30.06	-0.02	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.03	70.83	68.82	0.02	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.00	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.00	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.03	26.09	28.60	-0.03	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.02	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.00	0.03	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	10.00	14.93	-0.04	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.09	0.00	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.00	0.03	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.03	54.55	57.69	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.03	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.03	75.00	76.00	0.03	0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.03	27.27	23.80	-0.02	-0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	75.00	0.02	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.03	81.82	81.49	0.03	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.03	72.73	68.28	0.02	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.03	68.00	69.07	0.02	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	69.57	68.90	0.02	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.03	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.03	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.01	0.05	0.03
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.01	0.01