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Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


Charleston Southern

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:203.9
Current RPI:177
Expected SOS:252
Current SOS:158
Current Record:3-4
Expected Record:13-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC RPI:169
Expected OOC SOS:101



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-677.70.03%
19-789.20.13%
18-8105.70.69%
17-9121.12.51%
16-10139.96.55%
15-11160.512.35%
14-12182.018.47%
13-13205.121.64%
12-14227.917.26%
11-15250.311.12%
10-16271.56.02%
9-17288.72.36%
8-18303.20.69%
7-19315.80.12%
6-20327.60.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Charleston Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Mississippi (99.2)SECA65-66W100%0.0
11-22Wright St. (128.3)HorzH79-86L0%0.0
11-25Central Arkansas (339.0)SlndH80-67W100%0.0
11-28Florida St. (206.3)ACCA58-47L0%0.0
12-1Western Carolina (222.4)SCH72-66W100%0.0
12-12North Carolina St. (40.5)ACCA86-50L0%0.0
12-17Wofford (59.2)SCA64-58L0%0.0
12-22Colorado St. (32.7)MWCA0-08%-16.2
1-3Coastal Carolina (137.4)BSthA0-019%-10.3
1-5Campbell (222.4)BSthH0-066%4.9
1-8High Point (156.9)BSthA0-034%-5.0
1-10Longwood (316.7)BSthH0-085%12.2
1-14Liberty (321.1)BSthH0-078%9.2
1-17Presbyterian (340.8)BSthA0-083%11.0
1-19UNC Asheville (219.5)BSthH0-061%3.2
1-24Gardner Webb (168.8)BSthH0-059%2.8
1-28Radford (196.0)BSthH0-062%3.7
1-31Liberty (321.1)BSthA0-052%0.5
2-2Winthrop (252.4)BSthA0-037%-3.9
2-6Radford (196.0)BSthA0-033%-5.1
2-11Coastal Carolina (137.4)BSthH0-045%-1.6
2-14Longwood (316.7)BSthA0-061%3.4
2-18Presbyterian (340.8)BSthH0-095%19.8
2-21Campbell (222.4)BSthA0-037%-3.9
2-26Gardner Webb (168.8)BSthA0-031%-6.0
2-28High Point (156.9)BSthH0-062%3.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Charleston Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Charleston Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Charleston Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Charleston SouthernBSth27.6726.4644.8352.13-2.861.13
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.004.9366.6770.810.002.05
PresbyterianBSth0.404.900.008.53-0.40-4.07
CampbellBSth0.004.8525.0044.51-0.00-0.53
LongwoodBSth0.004.8520.0026.67-0.00-2.26
High PointBSth0.004.8462.5056.580.000.64
RadfordBSth0.004.8450.0056.220.000.60
Gardner WebbBSth0.004.8337.5049.67-0.00-0.03
LibertyBSth0.004.8325.0035.04-0.00-1.45
UNC AshevilleBSth0.003.0814.2945.77-0.00-0.26
WinthropBSth0.003.0528.5746.55-0.00-0.21
WoffordSC7.472.0975.0075.313.731.06
Western CarolinaSC7.142.0625.0047.49-3.57-0.10
Central ArkansasSlnd7.142.000.0018.34-7.14-1.26
MississippiSEC7.142.0075.0054.263.570.17
North Carolina St.ACC7.541.9980.0062.864.520.51
Wright St.Horz7.141.9650.0052.090.000.08
Florida St.ACC7.141.9544.4435.32-0.79-0.57
Colorado St.MWC0.001.92100.0077.500.001.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.3422.2237.53-0.00-0.09
Virginia TechACC0.000.3055.5638.100.00-0.07
ClemsonACC0.000.3066.6745.400.00-0.03
FurmanSC0.000.2825.0029.26-0.00-0.11
James MadisonCAA0.000.2770.0060.810.000.06
SamfordSC0.000.2733.3331.37-0.00-0.10
ChattanoogaSC0.000.2144.4451.18-0.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.400.2171.4364.070.170.06
Ohio St.B100.000.1790.0084.620.000.12
Miami OHMAC0.400.1730.0028.35-0.16-0.07
RichmondA100.320.1750.0057.040.000.02
DukeACC0.000.17100.0087.440.000.12
MercerSC0.000.1637.5041.84-0.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.360.1616.6730.49-0.24-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.1520.0029.28-0.00-0.06
AuburnSEC0.000.1444.4435.62-0.00-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1450.0044.640.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1450.0053.700.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1462.5066.710.000.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1345.4544.47-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.1377.7862.380.000.03
VMISC0.000.1333.3338.88-0.00-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.320.1350.0038.030.00-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.400.1350.0039.320.00-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1018.1846.19-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.400.1057.1456.560.060.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1011.1143.93-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.320.1010.0018.36-0.26-0.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1070.0066.610.000.03
PurdueB100.320.1072.7363.690.150.03
North FloridaASun0.360.1044.4456.92-0.040.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1037.5048.87-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1025.0028.71-0.00-0.04
OaklandHorz0.400.1030.0032.16-0.16-0.04
TCUB120.400.10100.0066.280.400.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.400.1050.0074.090.000.05
New MexicoMWC0.400.1070.0058.440.160.02
Boise St.MWC0.320.1075.0068.510.160.04
FloridaSEC0.000.0960.0064.870.000.03
Miami FLACC0.000.0990.0075.760.000.05
North CarolinaACC0.000.0970.0071.470.000.04
PittsburghACC0.000.0966.6752.270.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.09100.0085.770.000.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0755.5638.460.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0733.3345.26-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0718.1827.98-0.00-0.03
UCLAP120.000.0772.7357.410.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0760.0065.060.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.07100.0080.830.000.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0720.0038.33-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0711.1129.64-0.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0766.6754.090.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0788.8981.120.000.04
Seton HallBE0.000.0788.8963.530.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.070.008.74-0.00-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0720.0037.19-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0727.2737.77-0.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0722.2240.77-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.790.0760.0062.430.160.02
ColgatePat0.000.0720.0042.80-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0755.5648.590.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0787.5077.040.000.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0740.0046.88-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0744.4449.46-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0766.6759.320.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0775.0078.710.000.04
HowardMEAC0.000.0730.0044.01-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0718.1821.69-0.00-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0733.3334.56-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.070.0023.23-0.00-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0750.0058.660.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0737.5051.47-0.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.070.0024.33-0.00-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0780.0069.840.000.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0762.5064.360.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0728.5736.94-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0744.4447.44-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0771.4363.540.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0766.6766.690.000.02
IowaB100.000.0772.7362.590.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0725.0048.84-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.070.0038.50-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.070.0019.58-0.00-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.070.0037.61-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.0710.0021.05-0.00-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.400.0762.5071.700.100.03
AlabamaSEC0.400.0666.6755.660.130.01
CreightonBE0.790.0672.7351.600.360.00
NebraskaB100.750.0666.6743.830.25-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.400.0644.4447.39-0.04-0.00
TroySB0.790.0633.3340.58-0.26-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.400.0675.0060.600.200.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0690.0066.760.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1461.280.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0630.0029.48-0.00-0.03
NevadaMWC0.000.0612.5024.75-0.00-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0670.0072.770.000.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.007.87-0.00-0.05
WyomingMWC0.000.0677.7873.090.000.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.0677.7871.830.000.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0666.6741.940.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.400.0677.7869.420.220.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0662.5059.460.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0677.7851.090.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0085.210.000.04
Notre DameACC0.360.0690.9171.750.290.03
South FloridaAmer0.320.0650.0048.630.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6757.600.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.320.0650.0046.160.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0455.5665.660.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0437.5038.59-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0490.9167.700.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0433.3338.24-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.400.0375.0067.080.200.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.400.0336.3638.88-0.11-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.400.0375.0070.220.200.01
FIUCUSA0.400.0350.0054.660.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0325.0025.95-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.400.0360.0064.580.080.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0316.6719.82-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.400.0342.8638.50-0.06-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.400.0333.3345.72-0.13-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.400.030.0012.02-0.40-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.400.0344.4439.99-0.04-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0320.0038.66-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0375.0074.350.000.02
IonaMAAC0.400.0366.6772.380.130.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0314.2934.33-0.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.400.0377.7864.890.220.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.400.0344.4455.33-0.040.00
South DakotaSum0.400.0320.0039.57-0.24-0.01
StanfordP120.400.0375.0058.750.200.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0366.6777.710.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0366.6757.580.000.00
DenverSum0.000.0350.0053.980.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0337.5040.12-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0051.40-0.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0336.3664.92-0.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0328.5756.75-0.000.00
PacificWCC0.000.0342.8638.32-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0337.5064.54-0.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0050.770.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0350.0053.110.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0366.6772.280.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0322.2230.96-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0377.7869.890.000.01
HofstraCAA0.320.0377.7878.200.180.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.320.0310.0041.11-0.26-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0094.670.000.03
ManhattanMAAC0.360.0322.2237.72-0.20-0.01
MassachusettsA100.360.0360.0055.530.070.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0344.4431.65-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.360.0366.6757.570.120.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.400.0340.0050.48-0.080.00
OregonP120.400.0366.6759.200.130.01
ProvidenceBE0.360.0372.7352.880.160.00
SouthernSWAC0.400.030.0034.38-0.40-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0311.1128.93-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0377.7865.350.000.01
UCFAmer0.360.0355.5635.040.04-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.400.0355.5648.830.04-0.00