live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 6, 2016.


Charleston Southern

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:274.6
Current RPI:271
Expected SOS:173
Current SOS:159
Current Record:5-16
Expected Record:7-19
Current Conf Record:4-9
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-4
Current OOC Record:1-7
Expected OOC Record:1-7
Expected OOC RPI:242
Expected OOC SOS:11



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-16215.90.19%
9-17233.73.57%
8-18255.020.25%
7-19274.743.01%
6-20289.427.55%
5-21301.35.42%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Charleston Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Wichita St. (37.8)MVCA88-63L0%0.0
11-15Stanford (86.0)P12A93-59L0%0.0
11-20Arkansas (88.9)SECA93-75L0%0.0
11-24East Tennessee St. (123.5)SCH77-76W100%0.0
11-27Akron (35.3)MACA82-58L0%0.0
12-2Winthrop (165.0)BSthH82-83L0%0.0
12-5Liberty (262.2)BSthA61-68W100%0.0
12-12Rider (219.5)MAACH72-82L0%0.0
12-17Wright St. (157.7)HorzA71-65L0%0.0
12-21Florida St. (46.9)ACCA75-64L0%0.0
1-2High Point (196.9)BSthH73-78L0%0.0
1-6Radford (169.8)BSthA80-73L0%0.0
1-9UNC Asheville (135.1)BSthH73-83L0%0.0
1-14Liberty (262.2)BSthH64-63W100%0.0
1-16Campbell (328.2)BSthA75-82W100%0.0
1-20Presbyterian (332.2)BSthA72-73W100%0.0
1-23Coastal Carolina (155.6)BSthH63-78L0%0.0
1-27Winthrop (165.0)BSthA97-72L0%0.0
1-30Gardner Webb (209.0)BSthH59-68L0%0.0
2-3UNC Asheville (135.1)BSthA63-55L0%0.0
2-6Longwood (318.3)BSthH76-78L0%0.0
2-11Presbyterian (332.2)BSthH0-070%5.6
2-13High Point (196.9)BSthA0-013%-12.4
2-18Gardner Webb (209.0)BSthA0-026%-7.2
2-20Campbell (328.2)BSthH0-069%5.5
2-25Coastal Carolina (155.6)BSthA0-013%-12.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Charleston Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Charleston Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Charleston Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Charleston SouthernBSth26.4826.4926.2128.40-12.60-11.45
UNC AshevilleBSth5.554.9061.9063.551.321.33
PresbyterianBSth3.164.8926.3227.85-1.50-2.17
Coastal CarolinaBSth3.224.8957.8957.190.510.70
Gardner WebbBSth3.224.8642.8644.40-0.46-0.54
LibertyBSth5.564.8638.1039.31-1.32-1.04
CampbellBSth3.274.8630.0030.84-1.31-1.86
High PointBSth3.204.8652.6354.460.170.43
WinthropBSth5.474.8561.1160.391.221.01
RadfordBSth3.163.0847.6249.49-0.15-0.03
LongwoodBSth3.213.0819.0522.19-1.99-1.71
East Tennessee St.SC2.481.9961.9061.560.590.46
ArkansasSEC2.491.9950.0054.460.000.18
AkronMAC2.431.9580.9579.351.511.15
StanfordP122.431.9547.3744.63-0.13-0.21
Florida St.ACC2.381.9268.1863.670.870.53
RiderMAAC2.381.9239.1341.65-0.52-0.32
Wichita St.MVC2.381.9271.4375.481.020.98
Wright St.Horz2.381.9254.5555.470.220.21
FurmanSC0.370.3552.1753.310.020.02
VMISC0.280.2915.7917.42-0.19-0.19
TennesseeSEC0.260.2447.8346.87-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.170.2240.9145.38-0.03-0.02
The CitadelSC0.170.2133.3331.30-0.06-0.08
North Carolina St.ACC0.280.2150.0049.100.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.220.2128.5731.37-0.09-0.08
GeorgiaSEC0.230.1861.9056.690.050.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.170.1820.0026.76-0.10-0.08
Green BayHorz0.270.1754.5556.010.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.180.1530.0035.78-0.07-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1563.6460.930.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.180.1522.7323.25-0.10-0.08
DrexelCAA0.160.1413.6418.14-0.12-0.09
William & MaryCAA0.160.1471.4369.840.070.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.160.1476.1973.380.090.07
UNC GreensboroSC0.170.1428.5731.90-0.07-0.05
Wake ForestACC0.160.1443.4840.60-0.02-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.170.1459.0953.030.030.01
ClemsonACC0.160.1460.8760.210.040.03
IowaB100.160.1481.8280.120.100.08
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.160.1443.4842.63-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.210.1473.9173.910.100.06
LSUSEC0.110.1365.2260.280.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.210.1378.2678.040.120.07
Cleveland St.Horz0.160.1321.7422.74-0.09-0.07
NevadaMWC0.110.1155.0054.530.010.01
RichmondA100.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
AuburnSEC0.060.1140.9136.61-0.01-0.03
Texas TechB120.110.1059.0953.130.020.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1015.0027.27-0.07-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.160.1054.1752.340.010.00
UtahP120.170.1072.7368.540.080.04
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1056.5260.000.010.02
Notre DameACC0.100.1069.5765.850.040.03
Western MichiganMAC0.160.1033.3335.50-0.05-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1086.3685.030.080.07
EvansvilleMVC0.160.1075.0076.230.080.05
PrincetonIvy0.150.1072.2274.710.070.05
VillanovaBE0.170.1086.9686.370.120.07
MercerSC0.110.1072.7370.750.050.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.1052.3847.050.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.110.1031.8230.48-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1063.1658.810.030.02
SienaMAAC0.100.1066.6767.270.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.110.1054.5552.810.010.01
OhioMAC0.110.1061.9059.420.030.02
IonaMAAC0.150.0959.0959.660.030.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.0940.9140.64-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.060.0884.2181.680.040.05
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0734.7840.92-0.02-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.120.0740.0039.00-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.120.0757.1459.450.020.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.120.0725.0024.37-0.06-0.04
MarquetteBE0.060.0762.5056.260.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0735.0035.99-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0717.3920.65-0.04-0.04
ArmyPat0.050.0752.1753.360.000.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0778.2674.360.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.100.0726.0929.20-0.05-0.03
ArizonaP120.060.0779.1778.310.030.04
Arizona St.P120.060.0754.1751.650.000.00
BradleyMVC0.110.0712.5012.85-0.08-0.05
CaliforniaP120.120.0765.2262.900.040.02
ColoradoP120.120.0769.5765.300.050.02
DartmouthIvy0.110.0731.5831.77-0.04-0.03
DrakeMVC0.050.0721.7423.66-0.03-0.04
ElonCAA0.100.0752.1750.430.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0754.1750.940.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0752.1751.940.000.00
LamarSlnd0.100.0731.5831.96-0.04-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.0771.4369.410.040.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0739.1337.74-0.01-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0754.1755.090.000.01
OregonP120.060.0781.8278.150.040.04
Oregon St.P120.060.0761.9056.430.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.0772.0070.500.050.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.0737.5043.36-0.03-0.01
TulaneAmer0.100.0733.3332.33-0.03-0.02
USCP120.050.0778.2673.060.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.0752.0050.260.000.00
George MasonA100.110.0734.7834.21-0.03-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.110.0763.6459.230.030.01
DePaulBE0.110.0734.7834.45-0.03-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.110.0750.0053.300.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0754.1749.290.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.100.0747.6245.86-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.075.007.24-0.05-0.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.0759.0959.640.020.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0733.3335.08-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0768.0067.970.020.02
SamfordSC0.050.0739.1341.32-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0781.8283.030.030.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0730.4332.35-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.100.0673.9171.570.050.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.0668.1866.670.040.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0659.0958.900.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.110.0650.0051.170.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0663.6459.380.000.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0680.9575.490.030.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6762.570.000.02
FloridaSEC0.100.0665.2266.080.030.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0641.6743.87-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.100.0652.1753.070.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0645.0043.21-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0634.7830.36-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0679.1780.780.000.04
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0625.0025.47-0.02-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.0638.1037.49-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.0638.1041.91-0.02-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0619.0521.34-0.03-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0366.6765.220.020.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0338.1040.73-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0369.5768.500.020.01
MaineAE0.050.0334.7834.00-0.02-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0347.8344.37-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.050.0350.0046.740.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.11-0.04-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0342.1145.73-0.01-0.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0338.1033.40-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0385.7185.390.040.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0373.9169.840.030.01
SMUAmer0.060.0390.4885.570.050.02
TexasB120.060.0369.5762.640.020.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0363.6459.960.010.01
UCLAP120.000.0356.5253.250.000.00
UMBCAE0.050.0324.0026.41-0.03-0.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0350.0055.190.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.0365.2261.080.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0336.3632.01-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0328.5728.55-0.02-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0357.8956.090.010.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0350.0052.340.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0345.4549.71-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0325.0033.22-0.03-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0341.6741.24-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0391.3084.380.040.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.12-0.02-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0330.4326.49-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0315.0022.35-0.04-0.02
DukeACC0.000.0373.9170.060.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0336.8441.46-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0322.7327.18-0.03-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0368.1865.290.020.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0350.0049.850.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.050.0325.0029.27-0.03-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0382.6177.730.030.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.170.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0314.2917.91-0.04-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0382.6178.690.030.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0376.1968.220.030.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0359.0960.070.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0342.8650.39-0.010.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0382.6178.050.030.02
DaytonA100.050.0386.3682.350.040.02
HartfordAE0.050.0326.0926.50-0.02-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0352.6350.230.000.00
La SalleA100.050.0320.0020.47-0.03-0.02
MarylandB100.050.0387.5083.690.040.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0365.2259.020.000.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0365.2267.130.020.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0318.7526.45-0.03-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0375.0070.940.020.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0356.5256.620.010.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0386.3679.150.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0365.0066.790.020.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0363.6465.020.010.01