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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Charleston Southern

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:295.0
Current RPI:295
Expected SOS:268
Current SOS:268
Current Record:9-19
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-6
Current OOC Record:1-7
Expected OOC Record:1-7
Expected OOC RPI:304
Expected OOC SOS:218



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-19295.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Charleston Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Florida St. (14.0)ACCA88-67L0%0.0
11-19USC Upstate (229.0)ASunH77-79L0%0.0
11-22Abilene Christian (288.0)SlndA65-66W100%0.0
11-29Alabama (78.0)SECA76-46L0%0.0
12-3Abilene Christian (288.0)SlndH82-85L0%0.0
12-13VMI (329.0)SCA88-83L0%0.0
12-17Georgia (52.0)SECA84-64L0%0.0
12-20Virginia Tech (48.0)ACCA87-59L0%0.0
12-29Winthrop (70.0)BSthH68-84L0%0.0
12-31Liberty (172.0)BSthH70-81L0%0.0
1-4Campbell (246.0)BSthA92-82L0%0.0
1-7Gardner Webb (186.0)BSthA79-75L0%0.0
1-11Radford (227.0)BSthH70-64W100%0.0
1-14UNC Asheville (73.0)BSthH67-76L0%0.0
1-19Presbyterian (347.0)BSthA52-73W100%0.0
1-21Longwood (343.0)BSthH76-61W100%0.0
1-26High Point (236.0)BSthA72-69L0%0.0
1-28Gardner Webb (186.0)BSthH76-85L0%0.0
2-1UNC Asheville (73.0)BSthA91-73L0%0.0
2-4Presbyterian (347.0)BSthH71-65W100%0.0
2-9Radford (227.0)BSthA79-67L0%0.0
2-11Liberty (172.0)BSthA76-69L0%0.0
2-15Campbell (246.0)BSthH72-69W100%0.0
2-18High Point (236.0)BSthH76-75W100%0.0
2-23Winthrop (70.0)BSthA86-72L0%0.0
2-25Longwood (343.0)BSthA78-86W100%0.0
2-28Longwood (343.0)BSthH79-74W100%0.0
3-2Winthrop (70.0)BSthA92-78L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Charleston Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Charleston Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Charleston Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Charleston SouthernBSth26.7226.7232.5032.50-9.35-9.35
WinthropBSth6.546.5477.7877.783.643.64
LongwoodBSth6.396.3916.0016.00-4.34-4.34
CampbellBSth5.015.0144.8344.83-0.52-0.52
Gardner WebbBSth4.894.8950.0050.000.000.00
RadfordBSth4.824.8239.2939.29-1.03-1.03
UNC AshevilleBSth4.794.7967.8667.861.711.71
PresbyterianBSth4.794.7911.5411.54-3.68-3.68
High PointBSth4.754.7542.3142.31-0.73-0.73
LibertyBSth4.734.7351.8551.850.180.18
Abilene ChristianSlnd3.573.5734.7834.78-1.09-1.09
VMISC2.052.0511.1111.11-1.60-1.60
USC UpstateASun1.991.9944.4444.44-0.22-0.22
GeorgiaSEC1.961.9654.8454.840.190.19
Virginia TechACC1.941.9467.7467.740.690.69
Florida St.ACC1.931.9375.0075.000.970.97
AlabamaSEC1.871.8756.2556.250.230.23
FurmanSC0.430.4363.3363.330.110.11
UNC GreensboroSC0.310.3170.9770.970.130.13
The CitadelSC0.240.2430.0030.00-0.10-0.10
ClemsonACC0.230.2353.1253.120.010.01
StetsonASun0.210.2127.5927.59-0.09-0.09
Western CarolinaSC0.190.1923.3323.33-0.10-0.10
SamfordSC0.180.1853.1253.120.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
New HampshireAE0.160.1658.6258.620.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.150.1576.6776.670.080.08
TennesseeSEC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Incarnate WordSlnd0.140.1432.0032.00-0.05-0.05
New OrleansSlnd0.140.1460.7160.710.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.140.1460.7160.710.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
AuburnSEC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
KentuckySEC0.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
LamarSlnd0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
MaineAE0.120.1219.3519.35-0.08-0.08
MercerSC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
ElonCAA0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
IllinoisB100.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.120.1231.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.110.1178.7978.790.070.07
PittsburghACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
Miami FLACC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
New MexicoMWC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.1037.0437.04-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
George MasonA100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
West VirginiaB120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
ColgatePat0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
KansasB120.090.0987.5087.500.070.07
NebraskaB100.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
MississippiSEC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
VirginiaACC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
DukeACC0.080.0877.1477.140.040.04
LSUSEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0719.2319.23-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0736.0036.00-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.060.0662.0762.070.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0678.1278.120.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
NavyPat0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
IndianaB100.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.060.0678.5778.570.040.04
UMass LowellAE0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
SienaMAAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.060.0688.2488.240.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
UMBCAE0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01