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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Charleston Southern

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:164.0
Current RPI:164
Expected SOS:267
Current SOS:267
Current Record:16-11
Expected Record:16-11
Current Conf Record:13-6
Expected Conf Record:13-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-3
Current OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC RPI:187
Expected OOC SOS:122



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-11164.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Charleston Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Mississippi (60.0)SECA65-66W100%0.0
11-22Wright St. (264.0)HorzH79-86L0%0.0
11-25Central Arkansas (349.0)SlndH80-67W100%0.0
11-28Florida St. (110.0)ACCA58-47L0%0.0
12-1Western Carolina (220.0)SCH72-66W100%0.0
12-12North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCA86-50L0%0.0
12-17Wofford (47.0)SCA64-58L0%0.0
12-22Colorado St. (29.0)MWCA75-54L0%0.0
1-3Coastal Carolina (124.0)BSthA83-74L0%0.0
1-5Campbell (323.0)BSthH74-71W100%0.0
1-8High Point (89.0)BSthA72-61L0%0.0
1-10Longwood (316.0)BSthH68-54W100%0.0
1-14Liberty (347.0)BSthH80-58W100%0.0
1-17Presbyterian (315.0)BSthA65-73W100%0.0
1-19UNC Asheville (249.0)BSthH82-75W100%0.0
1-24Gardner Webb (146.0)BSthH93-80W100%0.0
1-28Radford (154.0)BSthH77-84L0%0.0
1-31Liberty (347.0)BSthA62-74W100%0.0
2-2Winthrop (210.0)BSthA77-55L0%0.0
2-6Radford (154.0)BSthA71-79W100%0.0
2-11Coastal Carolina (124.0)BSthH83-72W100%0.0
2-14Longwood (316.0)BSthA64-65W100%0.0
2-18Presbyterian (315.0)BSthH75-49W100%0.0
2-21Campbell (323.0)BSthA57-86W100%0.0
2-26Gardner Webb (146.0)BSthA91-81L0%0.0
2-28High Point (89.0)BSthH97-93W100%0.0
3-6Longwood (316.0)BSthN60-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Charleston Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Charleston Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Charleston Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Charleston SouthernBSth26.4726.4762.6162.616.676.67
LongwoodBSth6.566.5627.5927.59-2.94-2.94
Coastal CarolinaBSth4.874.8770.3770.371.991.99
Gardner WebbBSth4.854.8553.5753.570.350.35
PresbyterianBSth4.804.8023.0823.08-2.58-2.58
CampbellBSth4.694.6925.9325.93-2.26-2.26
High PointBSth4.694.6969.2369.231.801.80
RadfordBSth4.694.6962.9662.961.221.22
LibertyBSth4.684.6815.3815.38-3.24-3.24
WinthropBSth3.153.1553.5753.570.220.22
UNC AshevilleBSth3.093.0944.4444.44-0.34-0.34
WoffordSC2.042.0480.6580.651.251.25
Western CarolinaSC2.002.0044.8344.83-0.21-0.21
Central ArkansasSlnd1.921.927.147.14-1.64-1.64
MississippiSEC1.921.9264.5264.520.560.56
North Carolina St.ACC1.911.9159.3859.380.360.36
Wright St.Horz1.881.8828.5728.57-0.81-0.81
Florida St.ACC1.881.8850.0050.000.000.00
Colorado St.MWC1.851.8580.6580.651.141.14
UNC GreensboroSC0.370.3726.6726.67-0.17-0.17
ClemsonACC0.300.3051.6151.610.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.280.2859.3859.380.050.05
Virginia TechACC0.280.2833.3333.33-0.09-0.09
FurmanSC0.280.2829.0329.03-0.12-0.12
SamfordSC0.250.2538.7138.71-0.06-0.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.180.1866.6766.670.060.06
DukeACC0.180.1887.8887.880.140.14
Ohio St.B100.160.1669.7069.700.060.06
RichmondA100.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.150.1557.1457.140.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
MercerSC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
The CitadelSC0.150.1529.6329.63-0.06-0.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1327.2727.27-0.06-0.06
AuburnSEC0.120.1241.1841.18-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
VMISC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
VirginiaACC0.110.1190.6290.620.090.09
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
OaklandHorz0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
North FloridaASun0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0972.4172.410.040.04
TCUB120.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
PurdueB100.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
IowaB100.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0975.7675.760.040.04
UMBCAE0.090.0913.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Boise St.MWC0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
FloridaSEC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
AmericanPat0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
ColgatePat0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Green BayHorz0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
HowardMEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
ArizonaP120.060.0691.1891.180.050.05
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
Seton HallBE0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
CreightonBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
NevadaMWC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
WyomingMWC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
West VirginiaB120.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Notre DameACC0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01