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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Charleston Southern

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:268.0
Current RPI:268
Expected SOS:241
Current SOS:241
Current Record:9-18
Expected Record:9-18
Current Conf Record:7-11
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-9
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:195
Expected OOC SOS:76



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-18268.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Charleston Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Delaware (65.0)CAAA93-95W100%0.0
11-13UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAH78-80L0%0.0
11-17New Mexico (12.0)MWCA109-93L0%0.0
11-20Baylor (30.0)B12A69-64L0%0.0
12-3Delaware (65.0)CAAH80-85L0%0.0
12-14Alabama (124.0)SECA59-45L0%0.0
12-18Western Carolina (221.0)SCA92-84L0%0.0
12-21Central Arkansas (328.0)SlndA90-97W100%0.0
12-30Florida St. (54.0)ACCA67-59L0%0.0
1-8Coastal Carolina (196.0)BSthH70-58W100%0.0
1-11Winthrop (168.0)BSthA85-68L0%0.0
1-15Presbyterian (349.0)BSthH95-58W100%0.0
1-18UNC Asheville (201.0)BSthH76-80L0%0.0
1-22Gardner Webb (241.0)BSthA76-78W100%0.0
1-25Longwood (337.0)BSthH85-88L0%0.0
1-29Campbell (316.0)BSthA65-57L0%0.0
2-1Liberty (311.0)BSthH80-66W100%0.0
2-5Radford (240.0)BSthH76-82L0%0.0
2-8VMI (211.0)BSthA92-84L0%0.0
2-15Winthrop (168.0)BSthH84-64W100%0.0
2-17High Point (172.0)BSthA76-70L0%0.0
2-19UNC Asheville (201.0)BSthA82-71L0%0.0
2-22Presbyterian (349.0)BSthA47-86W100%0.0
2-26Gardner Webb (241.0)BSthH76-78L0%0.0
3-1Coastal Carolina (196.0)BSthA63-61L0%0.0
3-5Campbell (316.0)BSthN71-81W100%0.0
3-7Coastal Carolina (196.0)BSthA73-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Charleston Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Charleston Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Charleston Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Charleston SouthernBSth26.3926.3936.5936.59-7.08-7.08
Coastal CarolinaBSth6.416.4159.2659.261.191.19
WinthropBSth4.714.7157.1457.140.670.67
UNC AshevilleBSth4.644.6444.4444.44-0.52-0.52
Gardner WebbBSth4.564.5650.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth4.524.5214.2914.29-3.23-3.23
CampbellBSth4.404.4030.7730.77-1.69-1.69
DelawareCAA3.803.8075.0075.001.901.90
LibertyBSth2.772.7728.5728.57-1.19-1.19
VMIBSth2.742.7453.8553.850.210.21
RadfordBSth2.722.7258.6258.620.470.47
High PointBSth2.652.6548.1548.15-0.10-0.10
LongwoodBSth2.652.6511.1111.11-2.06-2.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA2.122.1220.6920.69-1.24-1.24
Western CarolinaSC2.042.0450.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC1.851.8536.6736.67-0.49-0.49
BaylorB121.851.8565.6265.620.580.58
Central ArkansasSlnd1.851.8525.0025.00-0.93-0.93
Florida St.ACC1.851.8558.0658.060.300.30
New MexicoMWC1.851.8581.2581.251.161.16
William & MaryCAA0.320.3261.2961.290.070.07
James MadisonCAA0.270.2735.4835.48-0.08-0.08
HofstraCAA0.260.2630.3030.30-0.10-0.10
NortheasternCAA0.250.2534.3834.38-0.08-0.08
Appalachian St.SC0.250.2519.2319.23-0.15-0.15
WoffordSC0.250.2558.6258.620.040.04
The CitadelSC0.250.2513.7913.79-0.18-0.18
College of CharlestonCAA0.230.2341.9441.94-0.04-0.04
Georgia SouthernSC0.220.2238.7138.71-0.05-0.05
DrexelCAA0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.200.2044.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.190.1929.0329.03-0.08-0.08
FurmanSC0.190.1925.9325.93-0.09-0.09
Central ConnecticutNEC0.190.1934.4834.48-0.06-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.190.1925.0025.00-0.09-0.09
ClemsonACC0.180.1862.5062.500.050.05
DukeACC0.180.1876.4776.470.100.10
Delaware St.MEAC0.180.1825.0025.00-0.09-0.09
HamptonMEAC0.180.1860.0060.000.040.04
TowsonCAA0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
USC UpstateASun0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
MississippiSEC0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.150.1561.7661.760.040.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.140.1493.1093.100.120.12
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.1383.8783.870.090.09
Wake ForestACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
ElonSC0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
Texas TechB120.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
MinnesotaB100.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
MissouriSEC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
SamfordSC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
VirginiaACC0.120.1282.3582.350.080.08
West VirginiaB120.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
TCUB120.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Iowa St.B120.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
OklahomaB120.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1048.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
Kansas St.B120.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
XavierBE0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0941.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0935.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
VCUA100.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
SyracuseACC0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
DaytonA100.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
FloridaSEC0.090.0994.1294.120.080.08
DavidsonSC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
UNLVMWC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
MarylandACC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
KansasB120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
TexasB120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Notre DameACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0714.8114.81-0.05-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
NorthwesternB100.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
AuburnSEC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
MassachusettsA100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
ArmyPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.040.0456.6756.670.000.00
LamarSlnd0.040.0410.7110.71-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0425.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.040.0448.1548.15-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.040.0436.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0446.1546.15-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.040.0444.8344.83-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0431.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.040.0430.7730.77-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.040.0431.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.030.033.703.70-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00