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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Charleston Southern

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:298.0
Current RPI:298
Expected SOS:188
Current SOS:188
Current Record:6-21
Expected Record:6-21
Current Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Record:5-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-6
Current OOC Record:1-7
Expected OOC Record:1-7
Expected OOC RPI:255
Expected OOC SOS:19



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-21298.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Charleston Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Wichita St. (47.0)MVCA88-63L0%0.0
11-15Stanford (86.0)P12A93-59L0%0.0
11-20Arkansas (133.0)SECA93-75L0%0.0
11-24East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCH77-76W100%0.0
11-27Akron (34.0)MACA82-58L0%0.0
12-2Winthrop (130.0)BSthH82-83L0%0.0
12-5Liberty (264.0)BSthA61-68W100%0.0
12-12Rider (242.0)MAACH72-82L0%0.0
12-17Wright St. (146.0)HorzA71-65L0%0.0
12-21Florida St. (82.0)ACCA75-64L0%0.0
1-2High Point (158.0)BSthH73-78L0%0.0
1-6Radford (192.0)BSthA80-73L0%0.0
1-9UNC Asheville (137.0)BSthH73-83L0%0.0
1-14Liberty (264.0)BSthH64-63W100%0.0
1-16Campbell (308.0)BSthA75-82W100%0.0
1-20Presbyterian (319.0)BSthA72-73W100%0.0
1-23Coastal Carolina (164.0)BSthH63-78L0%0.0
1-27Winthrop (130.0)BSthA97-72L0%0.0
1-30Gardner Webb (210.0)BSthH59-68L0%0.0
2-3UNC Asheville (137.0)BSthA63-55L0%0.0
2-6Longwood (323.0)BSthH76-78L0%0.0
2-11Presbyterian (319.0)BSthH77-63W100%0.0
2-13High Point (158.0)BSthA72-50L0%0.0
2-18Gardner Webb (210.0)BSthA84-76L0%0.0
2-20Campbell (308.0)BSthH72-74L0%0.0
2-25Coastal Carolina (164.0)BSthA68-60L0%0.0
3-3Longwood (323.0)BSthN75-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Charleston Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Charleston Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Charleston Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Charleston SouthernBSth26.4326.4323.6223.62-13.94-13.94
UNC AshevilleBSth4.914.9162.0762.071.181.18
Gardner WebbBSth4.894.8942.8642.86-0.70-0.70
WinthropBSth4.874.8766.6766.671.621.62
LongwoodBSth4.814.8117.8617.86-3.09-3.09
PresbyterianBSth4.804.8030.7730.77-1.85-1.85
High PointBSth4.794.7961.5461.541.111.11
CampbellBSth4.734.7332.0032.00-1.70-1.70
Coastal CarolinaBSth4.734.7354.1754.170.390.39
LibertyBSth4.734.7337.0437.04-1.23-1.23
RadfordBSth3.023.0246.4346.43-0.22-0.22
ArkansasSEC1.911.9148.3948.39-0.06-0.06
East Tennessee St.SC1.911.9167.7467.740.680.68
AkronMAC1.881.8875.0075.000.940.94
StanfordP121.881.8846.4346.43-0.13-0.13
Florida St.ACC1.851.8558.0658.060.300.30
RiderMAAC1.851.8537.5037.50-0.46-0.46
Wichita St.MVC1.851.8573.3373.330.860.86
Wright St.Horz1.851.8559.3859.380.350.35
FurmanSC0.340.3451.6151.610.010.01
VMISC0.250.2522.2222.22-0.14-0.14
TennesseeSEC0.210.2144.1244.12-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.200.2043.3343.33-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.190.1924.1424.14-0.10-0.10
North Carolina St.ACC0.190.1948.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.160.1626.6726.67-0.08-0.08
GeorgiaSEC0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
William & MaryCAA0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
Wake ForestACC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
RichmondA100.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
VCUA100.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
ClemsonACC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
IowaB100.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
LSUSEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
Texas A&MSEC0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
MercerSC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
NevadaMWC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
AuburnSEC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
UtahP120.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
DartmouthIvy0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.090.0977.7877.780.050.05
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
George MasonA100.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
VillanovaBE0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
SienaMAAC0.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
FloridaSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.090.0964.5264.520.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
DetroitHorz0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0810.7110.71-0.07-0.07
IonaMAAC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
OaklandHorz0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
MarquetteBE0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Arizona St.P120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.060.0669.7069.700.030.03
ColoradoP120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Oregon St.P120.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0635.2935.29-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
USCP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
ArmyPat0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
George WashingtonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
MaineAE0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
ElonCAA0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
MissouriSEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
KentuckySEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
TexasB120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02