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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Charleston Southern

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:260.2
Current RPI:272
Expected SOS:274
Current SOS:217
Current Record:1-4
Expected Record:10-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-7
Current OOC Record:1-4
Expected OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC RPI:271
Expected OOC SOS:179



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-8122.00.01%
17-9126.50.04%
16-10145.80.17%
15-11161.71.03%
14-12182.32.80%
13-13202.67.36%
12-14223.712.13%
11-15244.117.11%
10-16264.519.69%
9-17282.017.54%
8-18297.611.78%
7-19311.66.32%
6-20321.82.78%
5-21329.70.94%
4-22336.40.27%
3-23344.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Charleston Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Florida St. (35.9)ACCA88-67L0%0.0
11-19USC Upstate (262.6)ASunH77-79L0%0.0
11-22Abilene Christian (189.3)SlndA65-66W100%0.0
11-29Alabama (119.3)SECA76-46L0%0.0
12-3Abilene Christian (189.3)SlndH82-85L0%0.0
12-13VMI (322.2)SCA0-054%1.2
12-17Georgia (71.0)SECA0-04%-20.4
12-20Virginia Tech (69.4)ACCA0-03%-22.5
12-29Winthrop (108.7)BSthH0-027%-7.3
12-31Liberty (222.2)BSthH0-050%0.0
1-4Campbell (293.0)BSthA0-048%-0.6
1-7Gardner Webb (194.0)BSthA0-025%-7.9
1-11Radford (263.8)BSthH0-066%5.0
1-14UNC Asheville (83.1)BSthH0-027%-7.4
1-19Presbyterian (327.2)BSthA0-064%4.4
1-21Longwood (331.9)BSthH0-079%9.8
1-26High Point (245.0)BSthA0-037%-3.9
1-28Gardner Webb (194.0)BSthH0-044%-1.7
2-1UNC Asheville (83.1)BSthA0-013%-13.6
2-4Presbyterian (327.2)BSthH0-081%10.6
2-9Radford (263.8)BSthA0-046%-1.3
2-11Liberty (222.2)BSthA0-030%-6.3
2-15Campbell (293.0)BSthH0-068%5.7
2-18High Point (245.0)BSthH0-058%2.4
2-23Winthrop (108.7)BSthA0-013%-13.6
2-25Longwood (331.9)BSthA0-062%3.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Charleston Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Charleston Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Charleston Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Charleston SouthernBSth30.8326.6025.9341.02-14.84-4.78
UNC AshevilleBSth0.565.0362.5071.240.142.14
Gardner WebbBSth0.005.0333.3350.98-0.000.10
CampbellBSth0.565.0342.8639.45-0.08-1.06
PresbyterianBSth0.005.0328.5724.16-0.00-2.60
RadfordBSth0.005.0028.5733.75-0.00-1.62
High PointBSth0.004.9937.5044.28-0.00-0.57
WinthropBSth0.564.9950.0070.650.002.06
LibertyBSth0.004.9628.5745.78-0.00-0.42
LongwoodBSth0.004.9620.0021.31-0.00-2.84
Abilene ChristianSlnd20.003.8533.3355.23-6.670.40
VMISC0.002.230.0015.43-0.00-1.55
USC UpstateASun10.002.1637.5039.30-2.50-0.46
GeorgiaSEC0.002.1257.1450.300.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.002.0685.7161.320.000.47
Florida St.ACC10.002.0387.5066.387.500.66
AlabamaSEC10.002.0250.0050.080.000.00
FurmanSC0.000.4542.8657.52-0.000.07
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.3571.4355.570.000.04
The CitadelSC0.560.2850.0030.320.00-0.11
ClemsonACC0.000.2671.4354.560.000.02
StetsonASun0.000.2425.0026.46-0.00-0.11
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.2183.3377.290.000.11
Western CarolinaSC0.000.2128.5723.02-0.00-0.11
SamfordSC0.000.1762.5056.520.000.02
AuburnSEC0.560.1685.7157.280.400.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1512.5030.51-0.00-0.06
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.1525.0042.78-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.1540.0041.72-0.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1550.0057.950.000.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1542.8650.33-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1560.0062.420.000.04
New HampshireAE2.000.1562.5062.120.500.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1525.0055.44-0.000.02
LamarSlnd0.000.1542.8640.38-0.00-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1442.8643.55-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.1414.2942.77-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.1442.8647.68-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1425.0041.19-0.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.1433.3346.06-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.710.1471.4373.270.310.06
TennesseeSEC0.000.1450.0044.700.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.1362.5054.660.000.01
VCUA100.000.1375.0072.930.000.06
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1355.5646.770.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.1387.5081.910.000.08
Wake ForestACC0.000.1377.7855.180.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.1375.0048.980.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.1377.7872.930.000.06
Miami FLACC0.000.1377.7866.740.000.04
New MexicoMWC2.000.1162.5058.130.500.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.1142.8637.05-0.00-0.03
ColgatePat0.560.1112.5030.11-0.42-0.04
West VirginiaB120.000.1085.7183.250.000.07
Saint LouisA100.710.1025.0023.99-0.36-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.710.1050.0050.170.000.00
MaineAE0.000.1014.2923.40-0.00-0.05
IllinoisB100.560.1066.6751.140.190.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1022.2232.01-0.00-0.04
NebraskaB100.000.1057.1444.830.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.710.1025.0038.98-0.36-0.02
KansasB120.000.1088.8977.470.000.05
KentuckySEC0.000.1087.5082.220.000.06
LSUSEC0.000.1071.4347.690.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.1075.0047.990.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1075.0047.520.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.1062.5044.840.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.10100.0078.180.000.05
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1071.4365.470.000.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1057.1429.760.00-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.000.1057.1436.370.00-0.03
VirginiaACC0.000.1088.8978.430.000.05
DukeACC0.000.0990.0080.060.000.06
Notre DameACC0.000.09100.0076.970.000.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.080.0038.78-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.080.0017.92-0.00-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0820.0042.14-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB122.000.0871.4348.030.86-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.080.0022.30-0.00-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0885.7153.770.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0750.0056.890.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0775.0074.590.000.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0770.0050.010.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0783.3379.920.000.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0757.1471.170.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0762.5060.090.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0725.0030.02-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.0711.1132.47-0.00-0.02
NJITASun0.000.0744.4451.58-0.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0712.5034.49-0.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0771.4354.010.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.070.0034.69-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0076.540.000.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0020.72-0.00-0.04
George MasonA100.000.0762.5046.490.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0712.5030.17-0.00-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0733.3340.37-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0787.5061.660.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.0771.4368.930.000.03
DrexelCAA0.000.0750.0041.460.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0750.0056.080.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0775.0075.180.000.03
HowardMEAC0.000.0716.6743.53-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0787.5074.510.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0788.8956.710.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.070.0025.17-0.00-0.03
NavyPat0.000.0733.3338.56-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0757.1459.020.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0720.0060.00-0.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0766.6766.650.000.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0720.0035.15-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0777.7862.010.000.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0733.3350.05-0.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0687.5069.040.000.02
TexasB120.710.0650.0038.730.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.560.0655.5642.150.06-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0687.5075.690.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0675.0050.980.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0662.5062.080.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.560.0462.5050.630.140.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.560.0466.6761.690.190.01
GeorgetownBE0.560.0455.5647.600.06-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0450.0045.920.00-0.00
RichmondA100.000.0450.0048.500.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0455.5649.660.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0375.0066.120.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0371.4363.080.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0377.7864.250.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.54-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0377.7865.840.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0385.7177.000.000.02
OregonP120.000.0375.0072.800.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.0380.0054.190.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.710.0385.7175.250.510.02
DetroitHorz0.560.030.0021.30-0.56-0.02
IonaMAAC0.560.0357.1464.540.080.01
MinnesotaB100.560.0388.8966.920.430.01
Southern MissCUSA0.560.0320.0017.37-0.33-0.02
TempleAmer0.560.0375.0064.820.280.01