Charleston Southern

Conference:	BSth
Expected RPI:	152.9
Current RPI:	143
Expected SOS:	275
Current SOS:	221
Current Record:	11-9
Expected Record:	16-10
Current Conf Record:	8-5
Expected Conf Record:	12-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	17.34%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-3
Current OOC Record:	3-4
Expected OOC Record:	4-4
Expected OOC RPI:	114
Expected OOC SOS:	136

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-9	127.0	22.24%
16-10	145.6	38.97%
15-11	167.4	26.69%
14-12	188.7	10.14%
13-13	208.3	1.77%
12-14	226.1	0.17%
11-15	246.0	0.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Charleston Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Kansas St. (45.0)	B12	A	72-67	L	0%	0.0
11-13	Wichita St. (16.7)	MVC	A	85-57	L	0%	0.0
11-21	Stetson (263.4)	ASun	H	73-64	W	100%	0.0
12-1	Radford (335.3)	BSth	H	83-73	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Virginia Military Inst (265.0)	BSth	H	114-81	W	100%	0.0
12-5	Florida St. (22.6)	ACC	A	76-51	L	0%	0.0
12-14	The Citadel (332.3)	SC	A	69-88	W	100%	0.0
12-17	College of Charleston (129.6)	SC	A	70-68	L	0%	0.0
12-21	Stetson (263.4)	ASun	A	81-88	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Liberty (310.4)	BSth	A	76-81	W	100%	0.0
1-2	High Point (283.7)	BSth	A	88-78	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Campbell (163.3)	BSth	H	91-73	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Coastal Carolina (132.7)	BSth	H	77-80	L	0%	0.0
1-10	Gardner Webb (269.3)	BSth	A	80-77	L	0%	0.0
1-12	Presbyterian (254.3)	BSth	H	65-58	W	100%	0.0
1-19	NC Asheville (116.0)	BSth	A	88-93	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Winthrop (267.3)	BSth	H	77-66	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Presbyterian (254.3)	BSth	A	64-75	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Campbell (163.3)	BSth	A	62-57	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Coastal Carolina (132.7)	BSth	A	71-58	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Liberty (310.4)	BSth	H	0-0		90%	14.0
2-11	High Point (283.7)	BSth	H	0-0		82%	10.1
2-14	Gardner Webb (269.3)	BSth	H	0-0		80%	9.0
2-18	Wofford (177.8)	SC	H	0-0		68%	5.2
2-23	Virginia Military Inst (265.0)	BSth	A	0-0		67%	4.9
2-25	Radford (335.3)	BSth	A	0-0		81%	9.7

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Charleston Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Charleston Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Charleston Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Charleston Southern	BSth	26.57	26.52	63.10	65.71	6.96	8.33
Coastal Carolina	BSth	5.93	4.91	64.71	65.89	1.74	1.56
High Point	BSth	3.52	4.88	28.57	30.73	-1.51	-1.88
Presbyterian	BSth	5.85	4.86	45.00	47.01	-0.59	-0.29
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	3.40	4.85	47.37	46.50	-0.18	-0.34
Campbell	BSth	6.00	4.83	58.33	58.86	1.00	0.86
Gardner Webb	BSth	3.41	4.83	31.82	37.15	-1.24	-1.24
Radford	BSth	3.36	4.82	9.09	13.41	-2.75	-3.53
Liberty	BSth	3.35	4.82	28.57	29.05	-1.43	-2.02
Stetson	ASun	5.06	3.88	33.33	31.84	-1.69	-1.41
NC Asheville	BSth	3.50	3.07	71.43	70.32	1.50	1.25
Winthrop	BSth	3.34	3.03	36.36	36.04	-0.91	-0.85
The Citadel	SC	2.80	2.28	10.00	11.91	-2.24	-1.73
College of Charleston	SC	2.75	2.17	56.52	58.54	0.36	0.37
Wofford	SC	0.28	2.13	56.52	58.12	0.04	0.35
Florida St.	ACC	2.61	1.99	71.43	70.59	1.12	0.82
Kansas St.	B12	2.50	1.92	72.73	67.32	1.14	0.67
Wichita St.	MVC	2.50	1.92	81.82	79.81	1.59	1.15
Clemson	ACC	0.41	0.31	47.83	45.51	-0.02	-0.03
Davidson	SC	0.23	0.30	77.27	77.37	0.12	0.17
Furman	SC	0.34	0.27	45.45	47.20	-0.03	-0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.17	0.24	34.78	37.27	-0.05	-0.06
Jacksonville	ASun	0.33	0.24	20.83	23.61	-0.19	-0.13
Appalachian St.	SC	0.15	0.23	33.33	37.16	-0.05	-0.06
William & Mary	CAA	0.11	0.21	12.50	13.42	-0.09	-0.15
East Carolina	CUSA	0.28	0.21	44.44	41.65	-0.03	-0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.27	0.20	71.43	66.55	0.12	0.07
Lipscomb	ASun	0.16	0.20	43.48	43.89	-0.02	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.17	0.20	47.83	43.63	-0.01	-0.03
Georgia Southern	SC	0.11	0.20	42.86	43.11	-0.02	-0.03
NC Greensboro	SC	0.23	0.20	34.78	33.38	-0.07	-0.07
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.17	0.17	56.52	56.80	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.22	0.17	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.27	0.17	48.00	48.07	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.22	0.17	52.38	49.77	0.01	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.11	0.17	27.27	35.05	-0.05	-0.05
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.21	0.16	56.52	55.22	0.03	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.15	60.87	59.85	0.01	0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.11	0.14	34.78	37.18	-0.03	-0.04
Belmont	ASun	0.11	0.14	70.83	73.74	0.05	0.07
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.11	0.14	50.00	52.04	0.00	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.11	0.14	47.83	47.36	-0.00	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.22	0.14	8.33	10.90	-0.18	-0.11
Mercer	ASun	0.22	0.14	72.00	72.22	0.10	0.06
Cincinnati	BE	0.17	0.13	69.57	65.37	0.07	0.04
Indiana	B10	0.16	0.13	75.00	75.73	0.08	0.07
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.16	0.13	54.55	58.39	0.01	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.17	0.13	82.61	79.93	0.11	0.08
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.15	0.13	39.13	36.12	-0.03	-0.04
Texas A&M	B12	0.11	0.13	50.00	45.20	0.00	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.11	0.13	14.29	16.80	-0.08	-0.09
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.15	0.13	70.83	64.53	0.06	0.04
Creighton	MVC	0.15	0.13	84.00	82.62	0.10	0.09
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.19	0.13	25.00	28.48	-0.10	-0.06
Army	Pat	0.17	0.10	40.91	41.68	-0.03	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.17	0.10	40.00	40.17	-0.03	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.17	0.10	45.45	44.56	-0.02	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.11	0.10	40.91	39.60	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.11	0.10	33.33	35.20	-0.04	-0.03
Florida	SEC	0.17	0.10	79.17	76.62	0.10	0.05
Drake	MVC	0.11	0.10	52.17	50.01	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.10	24.00	24.86	-0.06	-0.05
Virginia	ACC	0.11	0.10	81.82	76.80	0.07	0.05
George Mason	CAA	0.11	0.10	76.00	72.48	0.06	0.04
Maryland	ACC	0.11	0.10	60.87	53.44	0.02	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.16	0.10	34.78	32.10	-0.05	-0.04
Chicago St.	GWC	0.15	0.10	9.09	12.82	-0.12	-0.07
Florida International	SB	0.13	0.08	33.33	37.11	-0.04	-0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.13	0.08	59.09	57.27	0.02	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.07	47.37	42.13	-0.00	-0.01
Longwood	ind	0.06	0.07	28.57	25.79	-0.03	-0.04
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.06	0.07	13.04	14.47	-0.05	-0.05
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.07	87.50	85.41	0.05	0.05
Old Dominion	CAA	0.06	0.07	60.00	58.30	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.07	62.50	59.52	0.02	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.07	59.09	59.78	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.06	0.07	62.50	60.78	0.01	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.00	0.07	44.44	48.16	-0.00	-0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.11	0.07	36.36	40.96	-0.03	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.11	0.07	22.73	24.64	-0.06	-0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.07	66.67	69.71	0.02	0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.00	0.07	34.78	38.43	-0.00	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.06	0.07	73.91	74.94	0.03	0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.00	0.07	23.81	33.67	-0.00	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.11	0.07	9.52	13.17	-0.09	-0.05
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.07	50.00	48.48	0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.11	0.07	65.22	62.35	0.03	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.11	0.07	86.96	83.30	0.08	0.05
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.07	45.45	41.17	-0.00	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.00	0.07	0.00	4.04	-0.00	-0.06
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.07	50.00	50.81	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.07	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.07	47.83	50.66	-0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.00	0.07	38.89	41.49	-0.00	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.07	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.11	0.07	47.83	47.08	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.07	62.50	62.07	0.01	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.07	56.52	54.28	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.07	96.00	93.53	0.05	0.06
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.07	70.83	71.06	0.02	0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.07	34.78	33.44	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.07	54.17	57.11	0.00	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.07	62.50	61.43	0.01	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.07	41.67	38.63	-0.01	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.11	0.07	69.57	70.16	0.04	0.03
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.06	90.91	83.90	0.04	0.04
Iowa	B10	0.10	0.06	54.17	49.41	0.01	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.06	70.83	66.50	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.06	78.26	78.42	0.03	0.04
Massachusetts	A10	0.11	0.06	73.91	68.65	0.05	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.00	0.06	66.67	63.50	0.00	0.02
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.06	91.67	87.92	0.05	0.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.10	0.06	31.82	34.86	-0.03	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.00	0.06	55.00	54.45	0.00	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.11	0.06	56.52	53.94	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.06	47.83	42.67	-0.00	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.06	62.50	62.20	0.01	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.11	0.06	30.43	25.84	-0.04	-0.03
Denver	SB	0.06	0.04	70.83	72.24	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.00	0.04	81.82	77.18	0.00	0.02
Utah	P12	0.06	0.04	18.18	15.00	-0.04	-0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.03	79.17	78.05	0.03	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	80.00	76.67	0.03	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.97	-0.01	-0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.03	65.00	66.71	0.02	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	62.69	0.02	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.00	0.03	34.78	35.19	-0.00	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.03	82.61	81.43	0.04	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.00	0.03	35.00	40.74	-0.00	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	75.07	0.03	0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.00	0.03	61.90	58.61	0.00	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.81	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.00	0.03	75.00	74.01	0.00	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.03	54.17	47.95	0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.00	0.03	30.43	26.42	-0.00	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.05	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.03	39.13	42.16	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.06	0.03	90.48	87.91	0.05	0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.03	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.03	21.74	25.63	-0.03	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.00	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.00	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.03	71.43	73.45	0.02	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	74.20	0.03	0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.03	18.18	19.91	-0.03	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.03	59.09	57.69	0.01	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	19.39	-0.03	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.03	77.27	73.50	0.03	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	47.09	-0.00	-0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.03	47.37	52.90	-0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.03	52.38	52.88	0.00	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.27	-0.01	-0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	66.67	65.98	0.02	0.01