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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Boise St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:82.0
Current RPI:82
Expected SOS:81
Current SOS:81
Current Record:19-13
Expected Record:19-13
Current Conf Record:11-10
Expected Conf Record:11-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:50
Expected OOC SOS:71



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1382.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boise St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8UT Arlington (199.0)SBH116-87W100%0.0
11-19Seattle (267.0)WACH86-68W100%0.0
11-23New Orleans (260.0)SlndA80-100W100%0.0
11-27Idaho (238.0)WACN98-89W100%0.0
11-29Portland St. (252.0)BSkyH76-60W100%0.0
12-3Utah (80.0)P12H69-67W100%0.0
12-10Kentucky (17.0)SECA70-55L0%0.0
12-14Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCH74-82L0%0.0
12-22Hawaii (160.0)BWA61-62W100%0.0
12-23South Carolina (140.0)SECN80-54W100%0.0
12-25Iowa St. (7.0)B12N66-70L0%0.0
1-4Fresno St. (117.0)MWCH86-79W100%0.0
1-8San Diego St. (15.0)MWCA69-66L0%0.0
1-11Wyoming (135.0)MWCH50-52L0%0.0
1-14Nevada (137.0)MWCA65-74W100%0.0
1-18Utah St. (116.0)MWCH78-74W100%0.0
1-21New Mexico (12.0)MWCA84-75L0%0.0
1-25San Jose St. (278.0)MWCH76-55W100%0.0
1-29Air Force (251.0)MWCH69-58W100%0.0
2-1UNLV (108.0)MWCA73-69L0%0.0
2-5San Diego St. (15.0)MWCH65-67L0%0.0
2-8Utah St. (116.0)MWCA76-70L0%0.0
2-12New Mexico (12.0)MWCH71-70W100%0.0
2-18Colorado St. (182.0)MWCA72-84W100%0.0
2-22UNLV (108.0)MWCH91-90W100%0.0
2-26Fresno St. (117.0)MWCA76-56L0%0.0
3-1Wyoming (135.0)MWCA63-72W100%0.0
3-5Nevada (137.0)MWCH81-83L0%0.0
3-8Air Force (251.0)MWCA64-61L0%0.0
3-12San Jose St. (278.0)MWCN83-52W100%0.0
3-13Nevada (137.0)MWCN62-75W100%0.0
3-14New Mexico (12.0)MWCN70-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boise St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Boise St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Boise St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Boise St.MWC26.4726.4759.0359.034.784.78
New MexicoMWC5.605.6083.3383.333.733.73
NevadaMWC5.535.5348.2848.28-0.19-0.19
San Diego St.MWC4.134.1386.2186.212.992.99
Fresno St.MWC4.124.1248.2848.28-0.14-0.14
UNLVMWC4.124.1261.2961.290.930.93
Utah St.MWC4.064.0655.1755.170.420.42
WyomingMWC4.034.0353.5753.570.290.29
San Jose St.MWC4.034.0318.5218.52-2.54-2.54
Air ForceMWC4.004.0034.6234.62-1.23-1.23
Colorado St.MWC2.552.5548.2848.28-0.09-0.09
IdahoWAC1.651.6546.8846.88-0.10-0.10
Portland St.BSky1.631.6353.5753.570.120.12
HawaiiBW1.621.6264.2964.290.460.46
UtahP121.611.6165.5265.520.500.50
Saint Mary'sWCC1.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
KentuckySEC1.611.6169.7069.700.630.63
South CarolinaSEC1.611.6142.4242.42-0.24-0.24
SeattleWAC1.611.6140.7440.74-0.30-0.30
New OrleansSlnd1.591.5938.1038.10-0.38-0.38
UT ArlingtonSB1.591.5944.8344.83-0.16-0.16
Iowa St.B121.561.5678.1278.120.880.88
New Mexico St.WAC0.350.3573.5373.530.160.16
UC DavisBW0.340.3424.1424.14-0.18-0.18
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.250.2538.7138.71-0.06-0.06
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.230.2367.8667.860.080.08
PacificWCC0.220.2248.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.210.2135.4835.48-0.06-0.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.210.2145.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.200.203.573.57-0.19-0.19
Grand CanyonWAC0.200.2046.1546.15-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.190.1972.7372.730.090.09
UC RiversideBW0.190.1927.5927.59-0.08-0.08
ColoradoP120.190.1967.6567.650.070.07
Weber St.BSky0.180.1860.7160.710.040.04
Cal PolyBW0.180.1836.6736.67-0.05-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.180.1862.0762.070.040.04
ArizonaP120.180.1888.2488.240.130.13
Nebraska OmahaSum0.180.1848.1548.15-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.170.1742.4242.42-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.170.1794.1294.120.150.15
South DakotaSum0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
WashingtonP120.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
MontanaBSky0.160.1653.5753.570.010.01
PortlandWCC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
BYUWCC0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
MissouriSEC0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
LamarSlnd0.120.1210.7110.71-0.10-0.10
San FranciscoWCC0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
MarquetteBE0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
BaylorB120.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
AuburnSEC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
TroySB0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
USCP120.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
GonzagaWCC0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
OklahomaB120.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
AkronMAC0.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
MississippiSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0834.6234.62-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
IonaMAAC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
DavidsonSC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
MassachusettsA100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0746.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0730.7730.77-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Michigan St.B100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
VMIBSth0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.040.0424.0024.00-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.040.0448.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.040.0444.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.040.0493.1093.100.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
IowaB100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
MichiganB100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00