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Through games of Nov 20, 2014.


Boise St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:58.9
Current RPI:69
Expected SOS:100
Current SOS:147
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:18-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:33
Expected OOC SOS:117



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-39.20.06%
24-412.10.71%
23-515.61.83%
22-620.84.53%
21-727.89.16%
20-836.514.39%
19-946.717.88%
18-1059.518.41%
17-1174.714.20%
16-1291.710.14%
15-13111.05.44%
14-14131.22.14%
13-15147.60.76%
12-16175.50.28%
11-17196.20.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boise St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14San Diego (114.6)WCCN75-81W100%0.0
11-15Loyola Marymount (221.9)WCCA69-77W100%0.0
11-18Montana (195.7)BSkyH72-67W100%0.0
11-22Wisconsin (5.8)B10A0-09%-15.8
11-25Idaho (240.8)BSkyH0-090%15.6
11-28North Carolina St. (53.0)ACCA0-031%-6.0
12-6Saint Mary's (40.2)WCCA0-031%-6.1
12-14Southern Utah (326.1)BSkyH0-097%22.9
12-20Abilene Christian (321.8)SlndH0-097%22.5
12-22Houston (109.7)AmerN0-057%2.1
12-31Colorado St. (66.8)MWCA0-042%-2.5
1-3Utah St. (104.7)MWCH0-071%6.7
1-10Wyoming (135.5)MWCA0-053%0.8
1-13UNLV (94.4)MWCH0-070%6.2
1-18New Mexico (95.9)MWCA0-043%-2.1
1-21San Jose St. (296.4)MWCH0-094%18.4
1-24Air Force (200.2)MWCA0-064%4.4
1-27Colorado St. (66.8)MWCH0-065%4.7
2-3Utah St. (104.7)MWCA0-049%-0.4
2-8San Diego St. (25.6)MWCH0-044%-1.8
2-11Air Force (200.2)MWCH0-083%11.6
2-14Fresno St. (214.8)MWCA0-069%5.8
2-18UNLV (94.4)MWCA0-047%-1.0
2-21Nevada (148.5)MWCH0-076%8.6
2-24New Mexico (95.9)MWCH0-066%5.0
2-28San Diego St. (25.6)MWCA0-023%-9.0
3-4San Jose St. (296.4)MWCA0-083%11.3
3-7Fresno St. (214.8)MWCH0-086%13.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boise St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Boise St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Boise St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Boise St.MWC34.7226.42100.0067.6934.729.35
Colorado St.MWC4.174.51100.0063.494.171.22
UNLVMWC0.004.51100.0058.210.000.74
San Diego St.MWC0.004.51100.0081.070.002.80
Air ForceMWC0.004.5050.0046.260.00-0.34
New MexicoMWC0.004.5066.6762.460.001.12
Utah St.MWC0.004.48100.0065.440.001.38
Fresno St.MWC0.004.470.0032.80-0.00-1.54
San Jose St.MWC0.004.470.0020.15-0.00-2.67
WyomingMWC0.002.82100.0055.570.000.31
NevadaMWC0.002.81100.0052.660.000.15
San DiegoWCC16.671.98100.0051.4716.670.06
MontanaBSky16.671.950.0051.39-16.670.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.001.92100.0071.500.000.82
Loyola MarymountWCC16.671.9250.0029.840.00-0.77
Southern UtahBSky0.001.910.0025.10-0.00-0.95
IdahoBSky0.001.8850.0048.650.00-0.05
HoustonAmer0.001.82100.0066.480.000.60
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.001.820.0032.13-0.00-0.65
North Carolina St.ACC0.001.79100.0060.860.000.39
WisconsinB100.001.79100.0081.510.001.13
PepperdineWCC0.000.33100.0050.890.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.33100.0049.930.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.3350.0047.360.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.320.0033.58-0.00-0.11
BYUWCC0.000.32100.0068.310.000.12
PacificWCC0.000.3050.0030.220.00-0.12
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.2633.3351.93-0.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.260.0059.82-0.000.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.260.0047.69-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.2533.3364.95-0.000.08
UC DavisBW0.000.23100.0043.520.00-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.23100.0060.870.000.05
Montana St.BSky0.000.230.0023.81-0.00-0.12
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.2050.0046.970.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.20100.0087.640.000.15
CaliforniaP120.000.20100.0078.150.000.11
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.190.0030.93-0.00-0.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.170.0039.41-0.00-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.17100.0059.190.000.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.170.0039.05-0.00-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.000.17100.0051.640.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.16100.0068.310.000.06
USCP120.000.1633.3326.65-0.00-0.07
CincinnatiAmer0.000.15100.0065.830.000.05
WashingtonP120.000.13100.0056.080.000.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.130.0034.75-0.00-0.04
Texas TechB120.000.1350.0045.040.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.1350.0064.340.000.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1333.3334.62-0.00-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.000.130.0028.57-0.00-0.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.130.0060.94-0.000.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.130.0049.36-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.1350.0062.850.000.03
UtahP120.000.1350.0063.450.000.03
SeattleWAC0.000.1050.0053.850.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.100.0032.60-0.00-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1050.0035.720.00-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.100.0046.51-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.100.0025.74-0.00-0.05
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1033.3338.23-0.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.100.0021.38-0.00-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1033.3350.61-0.000.00
Arizona St.P122.780.09100.0061.572.780.02
South DakotaSum0.000.090.0035.01-0.00-0.03
StanfordP120.000.09100.0059.450.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0966.6757.250.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0950.0043.010.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0966.6741.230.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.09100.0059.250.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0933.3369.45-0.000.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.09100.0044.020.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.07100.0058.890.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.07100.0063.340.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.070.0021.31-0.00-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.070.0041.07-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.070.0027.60-0.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.070.0033.91-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.070.0034.17-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.070.0034.19-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC5.560.070.0041.47-5.56-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.070.0039.93-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.070.0053.19-0.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.070.0027.81-0.00-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC2.780.060.0019.35-2.78-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.060.0031.43-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0035.44-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0028.74-0.00-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.060.0036.23-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0633.3345.60-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.060.0060.93-0.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.06100.0051.730.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0650.0053.990.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.06100.0056.370.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0072.220.000.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0650.0052.080.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.060.0038.34-0.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0650.0064.020.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0070.580.000.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.060.0034.86-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.060.0051.35-0.000.00
IowaB100.000.0666.6773.790.000.03
KansasB120.000.0650.0060.040.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.060.0065.41-0.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0650.0062.330.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0036.790.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.060.0058.61-0.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.06100.0051.780.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.06100.0044.320.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0666.6746.550.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0650.0035.370.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0045.740.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.06100.0085.060.000.04
PurdueB100.000.06100.0061.020.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0650.0046.570.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.06100.0067.660.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0066.870.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0666.6747.950.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.03100.0041.770.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0055.750.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.03100.0049.500.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.030.0051.69-0.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0062.600.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.03100.0060.010.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0045.95-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0034.320.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.030.0058.38-0.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0046.120.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0052.18-0.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0066.74-0.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0055.17-0.000.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0064.410.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.030.0029.13-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.030.0033.91-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0056.380.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0084.320.000.02
XavierBE0.000.03100.0070.050.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0055.970.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.03100.0068.990.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0053.570.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6762.170.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0055.69-0.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0070.520.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0066.43-0.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0350.0067.810.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0060.930.000.01
IndianaB100.000.03100.0064.540.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0350.0054.560.000.00
MarylandB100.000.03100.0067.780.000.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0067.240.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0066.390.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0016.22-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0071.690.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0073.880.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0350.0029.910.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0350.0034.150.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0044.87-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.030.0031.63-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.03100.0057.150.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.03100.0028.940.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.030.0041.28-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0350.0056.950.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0050.010.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0350.0061.290.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0333.3335.35-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0023.67-0.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0350.0067.190.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0077.610.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0068.310.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0070.180.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.03100.0057.350.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0350.0061.220.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6770.630.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0043.860.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.03100.0043.270.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0067.060.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0350.0065.490.000.01