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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Boise St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:101.0
Current RPI:101
Expected SOS:117
Current SOS:117
Current Record:18-12
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:82
Expected OOC SOS:81



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-12101.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boise St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Montana (145.0)BSkyA74-72L0%0.0
11-16Northern Arizona (333.0)BSkyH101-81W100%0.0
11-19Arizona (26.0)P12A88-76L0%0.0
11-26UC Irvine (75.0)BWN71-64W100%0.0
11-27Michigan St. (12.0)B10N77-67L0%0.0
11-29Arizona (26.0)P12N68-59L0%0.0
12-5Portland (249.0)WCCA71-81W100%0.0
12-9Loyola Marymount (223.0)WCCH67-66W100%0.0
12-12Oregon (2.0)P12H74-72W100%0.0
12-20Bradley (306.0)MVCH90-70W100%0.0
12-30UC Davis (281.0)BWH64-56W100%0.0
1-2Colorado St. (181.0)MWCH84-80W100%0.0
1-5Utah St. (151.0)MWCA61-76W100%0.0
1-9Fresno St. (66.0)MWCH81-70W100%0.0
1-13Nevada (118.0)MWCA67-74W100%0.0
1-16San Diego St. (41.0)MWCH53-56L0%0.0
1-20San Jose St. (301.0)MWCH94-69W100%0.0
1-23Wyoming (187.0)MWCA71-81W100%0.0
1-27UNLV (147.0)MWCA87-77L0%0.0
1-30New Mexico (141.0)MWCH83-88L0%0.0
2-2Utah St. (151.0)MWCH70-67W100%0.0
2-6Air Force (226.0)MWCA61-53L0%0.0
2-10Colorado St. (181.0)MWCA97-93L0%0.0
2-13Wyoming (187.0)MWCH94-71W100%0.0
2-17New Mexico (141.0)MWCA80-78L0%0.0
2-23UNLV (147.0)MWCH81-69W100%0.0
2-27San Diego St. (41.0)MWCA63-66W100%0.0
3-2Nevada (118.0)MWCH76-57W100%0.0
3-5San Jose St. (301.0)MWCA68-63L0%0.0
3-10Colorado St. (181.0)MWCN81-88L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boise St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Boise St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Boise St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Boise St.MWC26.4126.4160.3260.325.455.45
Colorado St.MWC5.945.9448.2848.28-0.20-0.20
San Diego St.MWC4.324.3273.3373.332.022.02
Utah St.MWC4.284.2851.8551.850.160.16
UNLVMWC4.274.2751.7251.720.150.15
NevadaMWC4.254.2560.7160.710.910.91
San Jose St.MWC4.254.2519.2319.23-2.61-2.61
WyomingMWC4.214.2142.8642.86-0.60-0.60
New MexicoMWC4.194.1950.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP123.523.5274.1974.191.701.70
Fresno St.MWC2.832.8374.1974.191.371.37
Air ForceMWC2.682.6837.9337.93-0.65-0.65
OregonP121.871.8784.3884.381.291.29
UC IrvineBW1.841.8474.1974.190.890.89
PortlandWCC1.831.8336.6736.67-0.49-0.49
Loyola MarymountWCC1.821.8244.8344.83-0.19-0.19
MontanaBSky1.791.7960.7160.710.380.38
Northern ArizonaBSky1.771.7711.1111.11-1.38-1.38
UC DavisBW1.771.7733.3333.33-0.59-0.59
BradleyMVC1.721.7213.3313.33-1.26-1.26
Michigan St.B101.671.6784.8584.851.161.16
Montana St.BSky0.400.4043.3343.33-0.05-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.340.3456.2556.250.040.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.300.3033.3333.33-0.10-0.10
ColoradoP120.280.2865.6265.620.090.09
San DiegoWCC0.280.2827.5927.59-0.12-0.12
PacificWCC0.270.2723.0823.08-0.14-0.14
CaliforniaP120.260.2669.7069.700.100.10
Cal St. FullertonBW0.250.2528.5728.57-0.11-0.11
GonzagaWCC0.250.2578.1278.120.140.14
BYUWCC0.220.2268.7568.750.080.08
Cal PolyBW0.220.2228.5728.57-0.09-0.09
New Mexico St.WAC0.210.2167.7467.740.080.08
Washington St.P120.210.2126.6726.67-0.10-0.10
IdahoBSky0.210.2161.2961.290.050.05
UCLAP120.210.2146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
USCP120.200.2063.6463.640.060.06
Sacramento St.BSky0.200.2041.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.200.2074.1974.190.100.10
UC RiversideBW0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.190.1983.8783.870.130.13
Oregon St.P120.180.1860.0060.000.040.04
Northern IowaMVC0.180.1863.6463.640.050.05
WashingtonP120.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
Arizona St.P120.180.1846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.180.1875.7675.760.090.09
Idaho St.BSky0.170.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.170.1714.2914.29-0.12-0.12
Portland St.BSky0.170.1737.9337.93-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.170.1783.3383.330.110.11
Northern ColoradoBSky0.170.1727.5927.59-0.07-0.07
PepperdineWCC0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
StanfordP120.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1172.4172.410.050.05
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.110.1120.0020.00-0.07-0.07
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
OaklandHorz0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Ohio St.B100.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
PurdueB100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
SeattleWAC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
IndianaB100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Kansas St.B120.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
RiceCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
DukeACC0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0657.6957.690.010.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0520.8320.83-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
NavyPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.020.0247.0647.06-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01