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Through games of Jan 16, 2017.


Boise St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:60.2
Current RPI:63
Expected SOS:102
Current SOS:112
Current Record:10-5
Expected Record:19-9
Current Conf Record:4-1
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:113
Expected OOC SOS:163



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-524.00.42%
22-628.42.76%
21-734.19.09%
20-842.519.68%
19-953.624.82%
18-1067.021.36%
17-1182.813.25%
16-12100.76.13%
15-13118.82.00%
14-14140.80.38%
13-15156.70.10%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boise St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17College of Charleston (73.1)CAAA60-47L0%0.0
11-18Mississippi St. (119.3)SECN68-80L0%0.0
11-20Western Michigan (206.7)MACN91-70W100%0.0
11-25Presbyterian (342.6)BSthH82-56W100%0.0
11-28Oregon (12.8)P12A68-63L0%0.0
11-30SMU (30.7)AmerH71-62W100%0.0
12-3Evansville (195.7)MVCA72-67L0%0.0
12-5Loyola Marymount (152.7)WCCA79-80W100%0.0
12-18Idaho St. (325.3)BSkyH82-59W100%0.0
12-21Cal St. Northridge (251.8)BWH79-62W100%0.0
12-28Utah St. (163.5)MWCA80-83W100%0.0
12-31Colorado St. (133.2)MWCH74-73W100%0.0
1-4UNLV (194.6)MWCA59-77W100%0.0
1-7San Diego St. (80.0)MWCH78-66W100%0.0
1-14Fresno St. (134.6)MWCA89-80L0%0.0
1-17New Mexico (101.0)MWCH0-071%6.2
1-21San Jose St. (187.5)MWCA0-073%6.9
1-25Nevada (36.6)MWCH0-056%1.7
1-28Wyoming (137.0)MWCA0-058%2.2
1-31Colorado St. (133.2)MWCA0-051%0.2
2-4Utah St. (163.5)MWCH0-078%8.7
2-11Air Force (221.7)MWCH0-087%12.4
2-14New Mexico (101.0)MWCA0-050%-0.0
2-18Wyoming (137.0)MWCH0-077%8.4
2-22Nevada (36.6)MWCA0-034%-4.6
2-25San Jose St. (187.5)MWCH0-088%13.2
2-28Fresno St. (134.6)MWCH0-076%7.9
3-4Air Force (221.7)MWCA0-071%6.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boise St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Boise St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Boise St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Boise St.MWC26.5426.3672.1369.5511.7510.31
New MexicoMWC0.734.5055.5655.770.080.52
Fresno St.MWC3.434.4953.3351.230.230.11
NevadaMWC0.314.4883.3379.930.212.68
Colorado St.MWC3.534.4760.0055.800.710.52
WyomingMWC0.304.4762.5057.240.080.65
Utah St.MWC3.644.4646.6746.19-0.24-0.34
Air ForceMWC0.314.4443.7538.73-0.04-1.00
San Jose St.MWC0.314.4350.0042.650.00-0.65
UNLVMWC3.642.8052.9446.600.21-0.19
San Diego St.MWC3.442.7760.0065.200.690.84
Idaho St.BSky3.551.947.1419.27-3.04-1.19
Loyola MarymountWCC3.551.9453.3349.780.24-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW3.551.9142.8647.94-0.51-0.08
OregonP123.531.8887.5082.172.651.21
College of CharlestonCAA3.331.7976.4769.851.760.71
EvansvilleMVC3.331.7943.7542.17-0.42-0.28
Mississippi St.SEC3.331.7973.3356.641.560.24
PresbyterianBSth3.331.7914.2915.43-2.38-1.23
SMUAmer3.331.7983.3379.252.221.04
Western MichiganMAC3.331.7935.7138.70-0.95-0.40
MontanaBSky0.210.2852.6360.450.010.06
PacificWCC0.100.2538.8934.94-0.02-0.07
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.2488.2484.380.080.17
Oregon St.P120.310.2117.6515.00-0.20-0.15
DenverSum0.000.1961.1157.830.000.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1988.2487.480.080.14
UC IrvineBW0.100.1950.0058.430.000.03
StanfordP120.300.1852.9447.220.02-0.01
ColoradoP120.100.1852.9454.280.010.02
East CarolinaAmer0.290.1847.3741.51-0.02-0.03
PortlandWCC0.220.1650.0042.270.00-0.03
BYUWCC0.320.1668.4268.160.120.06
Southern UtahBSky0.200.1612.5019.03-0.15-0.10
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.1514.2927.63-0.06-0.07
CaliforniaP120.100.1572.2266.070.050.05
USCP120.190.1584.2172.840.130.07
Cal PolyBW0.100.1320.0029.47-0.06-0.05
IdahoBSky0.110.1335.7144.07-0.03-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.1350.0046.720.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1337.5036.25-0.02-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.220.1322.2236.06-0.12-0.04
UC DavisBW0.110.1352.9454.860.010.01
DrakeMVC0.200.1325.0025.29-0.10-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1335.2937.74-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.1333.3342.19-0.03-0.02
UCLAP120.320.1294.7489.330.290.10
AkronMAC0.110.1281.2573.540.070.06
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1261.1157.840.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1231.2537.15-0.04-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1277.7882.460.060.08
TennesseeSEC0.210.1250.0050.990.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1276.4777.720.050.07
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.210.1288.2484.300.160.08
UTEPCUSA0.220.1218.7523.85-0.13-0.06
ConnecticutAmer0.200.1237.5043.15-0.05-0.02
BradleyMVC0.100.1238.8934.48-0.02-0.04
WashingtonP120.210.1247.0642.27-0.01-0.02
TowsonCAA0.090.1250.0052.220.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.1255.5660.550.000.02
Washington St.P120.100.1050.0035.490.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.220.1050.0049.650.00-0.00
NJITASun0.220.1041.1845.41-0.04-0.01
Texas TechB120.220.1076.4763.780.110.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.220.1040.0044.63-0.04-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.100.1053.8564.140.010.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.200.0940.0040.97-0.04-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0943.7550.72-0.010.00
UC RiversideBW0.200.0915.3827.54-0.14-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.0957.1453.400.020.01
GonzagaWCC0.210.09100.0096.910.210.09
San DiegoWCC0.100.0947.0640.37-0.01-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.100.0961.1158.650.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.200.0942.8647.10-0.03-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.190.0953.3361.470.010.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.200.0921.4336.57-0.12-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.0964.7161.460.030.02
ToledoMAC0.210.0950.0051.640.000.00
ArmyPat0.100.0941.1845.55-0.02-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0953.8558.520.010.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.190.0955.5649.900.02-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.200.0927.7830.30-0.09-0.04
Arizona St.P120.200.0950.0044.340.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.200.0962.5057.020.050.01
ArizonaP120.000.0988.8983.100.000.06
LSUSEC0.200.0956.2539.400.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0933.3341.38-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.110.0970.5972.850.050.04
TulsaAmer0.100.0956.2551.250.010.00
UCFAmer0.200.0976.4766.360.100.03
CampbellBSth0.110.0746.6745.24-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0714.2928.29-0.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0740.0044.09-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.110.0733.3340.05-0.04-0.01
LibertyBSth0.110.0743.7549.93-0.01-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.110.0726.6725.63-0.05-0.03
RadfordBSth0.110.0737.5043.12-0.03-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0764.7170.610.000.03
WinthropBSth0.110.0773.3373.890.050.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.220.0637.5044.66-0.05-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.110.0656.2559.170.010.01
MarquetteBE0.100.0666.6761.490.030.01
Montana St.BSky0.110.0629.4138.91-0.05-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.100.0646.1551.22-0.010.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0646.1554.04-0.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.100.0623.5321.79-0.06-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.100.0653.8554.520.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.0617.6535.25-0.07-0.02
PurdueB100.100.0677.7876.220.060.03
UTSACUSA0.100.0643.7538.32-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.220.0656.2553.010.030.00
The CitadelSC0.200.0635.2930.57-0.06-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.200.0650.0047.440.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0662.5054.170.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0660.0054.070.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0620.0024.58-0.00-0.03
DePaulBE0.000.0642.1130.46-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0612.5020.01-0.00-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0656.2553.440.000.00
Kansas St.B120.100.0676.4759.430.060.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.0612.5033.74-0.08-0.02
OhioMAC0.110.0671.4369.670.050.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0633.3333.93-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0652.9455.240.010.01
StetsonASun0.000.0625.0027.36-0.00-0.03
TroySB0.000.0647.0648.10-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.200.0623.0831.01-0.11-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0617.6521.39-0.06-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.200.0631.2539.84-0.08-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.200.0618.7535.75-0.13-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.200.0625.0031.95-0.10-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.210.0620.0019.52-0.12-0.04
VillanovaBE0.200.0694.7489.170.180.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0630.7736.76-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0617.6524.63-0.00-0.03
DaytonA100.000.0675.0076.040.000.03
DelawareCAA0.090.0629.4127.56-0.04-0.03
DrexelCAA0.000.0635.2935.38-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.090.0647.0649.68-0.01-0.00
HofstraCAA0.090.0644.4445.47-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0630.7743.59-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0658.8252.810.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0666.6763.320.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0681.2572.930.000.03
UtahP120.000.0666.6764.720.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0676.4762.000.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0688.2486.430.070.04
HoustonAmer0.000.0672.2271.210.000.02
MemphisAmer0.090.0672.2264.140.040.02
TCUB120.180.0681.2565.210.110.02
TempleAmer0.090.0652.6353.220.000.00
TulaneAmer0.090.0623.5320.62-0.05-0.03
FurmanSC0.110.0350.0054.850.000.00
St. John'sBE0.110.0345.0038.60-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.110.0368.7563.230.040.01
VMISC0.110.0314.2915.94-0.08-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.0333.3333.23-0.04-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0321.4326.05-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.0368.7570.370.040.01
WisconsinB100.110.0382.3581.030.070.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.036.2511.84-0.10-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.0318.7528.06-0.07-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.100.0323.5328.53-0.05-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.0322.2230.94-0.06-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.0327.7834.27-0.05-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.0361.1162.970.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.110.0350.0051.780.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.100.0383.3377.690.070.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0340.0034.51-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.0382.3582.770.060.02
Murray St.OVC0.100.0347.0655.40-0.010.00
ArkansasSEC0.100.0376.4768.380.060.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0364.7154.930.000.00
BaylorB120.100.0393.7580.460.090.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.090.0343.7543.63-0.01-0.00
DavidsonA100.090.0356.2555.710.010.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.0375.0076.810.050.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0382.3576.960.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.100.0352.6348.240.01-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5057.280.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.100.0353.3355.860.010.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0388.2487.320.000.02
LehighPat0.100.0356.2566.290.010.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0331.2526.61-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.090.0341.1843.68-0.02-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.0325.0033.65-0.05-0.01
UMKCWAC0.100.0338.8940.01-0.02-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.100.0377.7877.110.050.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0347.0643.82-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.090.0358.8252.990.020.00
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0318.7520.57-0.06-0.02
AlbanyAE0.090.0350.0058.110.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0317.6529.59-0.06-0.01
DukeACC0.090.0377.7873.720.050.01
KansasB120.090.0394.4481.600.080.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0323.0831.10-0.05-0.01
MichiganB100.090.0366.6758.160.030.00
PittsburghACC0.090.0366.6753.190.030.00
South AlabamaSB0.090.0343.7541.36-0.01-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.090.0337.5029.45-0.02-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0347.3745.21-0.00-0.00