Boise St.

Conference:	MWC
Expected RPI:	176.5
Current RPI:	197
Expected SOS:	77
Current SOS:	111
Current Record:	9-12
Expected Record:	12-16
Current Conf Record:	0-7
Expected Conf Record:	3-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.21%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-0
Current OOC Record:	9-5
Expected OOC Record:	9-5
Expected OOC RPI:	144
Expected OOC SOS:	286

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-13	110.5	0.27%
14-14	127.9	2.87%
13-15	145.7	15.18%
12-16	166.8	31.79%
11-17	187.8	32.09%
10-18	206.3	15.12%
9-19	223.8	2.67%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boise St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-16	Utah (272.4)	P12	H	80-59	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Cal St. Northridge (309.6)	BW	H	103-61	W	100%	0.0
11-22	Long Beach St. (39.1)	BW	A	72-62	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Northern Illinois (337.4)	MAC	H	71-57	W	100%	0.0
11-30	Drake (135.2)	MVC	H	108-64	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Indiana St. (133.0)	MVC	H	74-65	W	100%	0.0
12-5	Idaho St. (259.8)	BSky	H	79-55	W	100%	0.0
12-7	Portland (215.5)	WCC	H	92-70	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Louisiana St. (85.2)	SEC	A	64-45	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Denver (91.3)	SB	A	79-62	L	0%	0.0
12-19	Fresno St. (183.3)	WAC	H	70-63	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Iowa (139.5)	B10	A	81-72	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Idaho (169.6)	WAC	N	76-73	W	100%	0.0
1-2	Fresno St. (183.3)	WAC	A	72-59	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Air Force (174.7)	MWC	H	59-74	L	0%	0.0
1-17	Colorado St. (33.3)	MWC	A	66-55	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Texas Christian (123.7)	MWC	A	54-52	L	0%	0.0
1-25	Nevada Las Vegas (9.6)	MWC	H	72-77	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Wyoming (55.5)	MWC	H	64-75	L	0%	0.0
2-1	San Diego St. (26.6)	MWC	A	58-56	L	0%	0.0
2-4	New Mexico (30.8)	MWC	H	49-65	L	0%	0.0
2-11	Air Force (174.7)	MWC	A	0-0		51%	0.3
2-15	Colorado St. (33.3)	MWC	H	0-0		52%	0.7
2-18	Texas Christian (123.7)	MWC	H	0-0		71%	6.0
2-22	Nevada Las Vegas (9.6)	MWC	A	0-0		8%	-15.4
2-25	Wyoming (55.5)	MWC	A	0-0		20%	-9.2
2-29	San Diego St. (26.6)	MWC	H	0-0		42%	-2.2
3-3	New Mexico (30.8)	MWC	A	0-0		8%	-15.5

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boise St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Boise St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Boise St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Boise St.	MWC	26.26	26.38	35.80	36.09	-7.46	-7.34
Wyoming	MWC	2.88	4.42	75.00	69.25	1.44	1.70
New Mexico	MWC	2.78	4.37	80.95	79.91	1.72	2.61
San Diego St.	MWC	2.78	4.36	85.00	77.97	1.94	2.44
Colorado St.	MWC	2.77	4.36	65.00	59.80	0.83	0.85
Air Force	MWC	2.77	4.35	44.44	39.46	-0.31	-0.92
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	2.72	4.34	81.82	80.40	1.73	2.64
Texas Christian	MWC	2.72	4.33	55.00	48.42	0.27	-0.14
Fresno St.	WAC	4.93	3.70	38.10	44.13	-1.17	-0.43
Idaho St.	BSky	2.60	2.01	35.00	35.14	-0.78	-0.60
Drake	MVC	2.66	1.98	54.55	51.88	0.24	0.07
Long Beach St.	BW	2.62	1.95	70.00	72.36	1.05	0.87
Cal St. Northridge	BW	2.55	1.94	22.22	23.36	-1.41	-1.03
Idaho	WAC	2.64	1.94	50.00	52.97	0.00	0.12
Denver	SB	2.49	1.91	69.57	71.24	0.98	0.81
Utah	P12	2.59	1.91	19.05	15.55	-1.61	-1.32
Iowa	B10	2.50	1.85	52.17	47.76	0.11	-0.08
Indiana St.	MVC	2.48	1.85	59.09	56.16	0.45	0.23
Portland	WCC	2.44	1.82	22.73	22.51	-1.33	-1.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	2.43	1.81	5.56	7.58	-2.16	-1.54
Louisiana St.	SEC	2.38	1.79	57.14	55.80	0.34	0.21
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.27	0.34	69.57	68.90	0.11	0.13
Colorado	P12	0.33	0.32	66.67	62.65	0.11	0.08
Southern California	P12	0.34	0.31	25.00	25.13	-0.17	-0.15
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.34	0.29	55.56	58.01	0.04	0.05
Hawaii	WAC	0.27	0.28	57.14	53.12	0.04	0.02
Nevada	WAC	0.32	0.27	80.95	76.42	0.20	0.14
Cal Poly	BW	0.33	0.25	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.26	0.25	87.50	85.41	0.20	0.18
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.22	0.25	42.86	43.45	-0.03	-0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.37	0.25	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.23	0.23	0.00	5.37	-0.23	-0.20
UC Irvine	BW	0.23	0.23	35.00	35.26	-0.07	-0.07
Pacific	BW	0.22	0.22	35.00	37.47	-0.07	-0.06
Montana	BSky	0.28	0.22	70.00	73.28	0.11	0.10
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.28	0.22	30.00	31.54	-0.11	-0.08
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.31	0.22	62.50	61.50	0.08	0.05
California	P12	0.21	0.22	75.00	74.61	0.11	0.11
UC Riverside	BW	0.18	0.20	42.86	39.66	-0.03	-0.04
Portland St.	BSky	0.16	0.19	42.86	45.80	-0.02	-0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.28	0.19	45.00	41.76	-0.03	-0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.16	0.19	24.00	24.86	-0.08	-0.09
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.16	0.18	38.10	37.86	-0.04	-0.04
Stanford	P12	0.21	0.18	69.57	68.29	0.08	0.07
Evansville	MVC	0.21	0.18	45.45	44.02	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.21	0.18	54.17	57.20	0.02	0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.16	0.18	27.27	26.95	-0.07	-0.08
Arizona St.	P12	0.21	0.18	30.43	31.43	-0.08	-0.07
Illinois St.	MVC	0.21	0.18	62.50	62.06	0.05	0.04
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.20	0.18	8.70	8.99	-0.17	-0.15
Wichita St.	MVC	0.21	0.18	82.61	80.42	0.14	0.11
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.18	0.17	40.91	38.38	-0.03	-0.04
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.17	0.16	65.00	66.70	0.05	0.05
Chicago St.	GWC	0.17	0.16	4.76	9.95	-0.15	-0.13
Utah Valley	GWC	0.18	0.16	54.55	57.69	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.23	0.16	47.83	47.87	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.22	0.16	28.57	26.30	-0.09	-0.08
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.17	0.16	34.78	32.06	-0.05	-0.06
Washington St.	P12	0.22	0.16	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.16	0.15	63.64	56.71	0.04	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.17	0.13	81.82	81.49	0.11	0.08
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.12	0.13	20.00	19.96	-0.07	-0.08
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.12	0.13	19.05	24.61	-0.07	-0.07
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.17	0.13	59.09	57.76	0.03	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.11	0.13	33.33	33.82	-0.04	-0.04
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.17	0.13	35.00	39.38	-0.05	-0.03
Arizona	P12	0.11	0.13	66.67	68.55	0.04	0.05
North Dakota	GWC	0.17	0.13	33.33	41.31	-0.06	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.16	0.12	68.00	69.07	0.06	0.05
Seattle	ind	0.06	0.12	23.53	33.28	-0.03	-0.04
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.11	0.12	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.16	0.12	57.14	60.75	0.02	0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.16	0.12	81.82	76.80	0.10	0.07
Oregon	P12	0.16	0.12	69.57	64.53	0.06	0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.11	0.12	52.38	46.68	0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.15	0.12	27.78	29.87	-0.07	-0.05
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.12	75.00	73.97	0.05	0.06
Wright St.	Horz	0.12	0.10	41.67	40.61	-0.02	-0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.11	0.10	31.82	33.83	-0.04	-0.03
Washington	P12	0.17	0.10	69.57	66.54	0.07	0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.11	0.10	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.10	40.91	44.03	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.11	0.09	75.00	76.00	0.05	0.05
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.11	0.09	85.71	82.18	0.08	0.06
St. Mary's	WCC	0.10	0.09	90.91	87.74	0.08	0.07
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.09	31.82	42.13	-0.04	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.17	0.09	80.00	76.84	0.10	0.05
Oregon St.	P12	0.11	0.09	63.64	63.16	0.03	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.11	0.09	77.27	77.67	0.06	0.05
Texas Tech	B12	0.11	0.09	31.82	25.98	-0.04	-0.04
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.09	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.11	0.09	86.96	83.16	0.08	0.06
Grambling	SWAC	0.11	0.09	15.00	15.73	-0.08	-0.06
Houston	CUSA	0.11	0.09	47.62	44.63	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.10	0.09	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.16	0.09	65.22	60.58	0.05	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.15	0.09	69.57	61.31	0.06	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.09	72.73	64.43	0.02	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.09	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.07	17.39	24.41	-0.04	-0.04
Army	Pat	0.06	0.07	40.91	41.72	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.07	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.07	82.61	84.57	0.04	0.05
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.07	28.57	34.20	-0.03	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.07	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.07	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.11	0.06	81.82	77.20	0.07	0.04
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.11	0.06	33.33	34.47	-0.04	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.06	0.06	90.91	83.85	0.05	0.04
Bryant	NEC	0.06	0.06	8.33	10.86	-0.05	-0.05
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.04
Elon	SC	0.06	0.06	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	34.78	38.42	-0.02	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	13.64	16.14	-0.04	-0.04
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	30.00	33.20	-0.02	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.10	0.06	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	26.32	28.83	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.06	0.06	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.06	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.11	0.06	95.83	92.57	0.10	0.05
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.10	0.06	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.10	0.06	37.50	38.33	-0.02	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.06	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.06	25.00	28.52	-0.03	-0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	61.90	67.23	0.01	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.06	54.17	54.75	0.00	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.06	34.78	35.20	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.06	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.06	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.06	0.06	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.10	0.06	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.06	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.10	0.06	34.78	34.48	-0.03	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.06	73.91	68.43	0.05	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.06	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.06	69.57	65.15	0.04	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.06	17.39	19.81	-0.03	-0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.06	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	25.00	37.58	-0.03	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.06	61.90	63.52	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.06	75.00	75.78	0.02	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.06	41.67	38.67	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.00	0.03	68.18	67.91	0.00	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.03	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.03	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.03	30.00	30.06	-0.03	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.03	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.00	0.03	30.00	34.15	-0.00	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.00	0.03	26.32	29.71	-0.00	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.06	0.03	65.22	63.61	0.02	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.03	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.03	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.03	72.73	68.28	0.03	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.06	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.03	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.03	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.06	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
Butler	Horz	0.00	0.03	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.03	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.00
Florida International	SB	0.00	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.00	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.03	90.48	87.91	0.04	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.03	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.03	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.03	83.33	84.76	0.03	0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.64	0.02	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.03	18.18	21.13	-0.03	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.03	9.52	11.44	-0.04	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.05	0.03	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.61	-0.02	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.03	72.22	71.97	0.02	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.03	82.61	77.63	0.04	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.00	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.03	-0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.00	0.03	40.91	39.56	-0.00	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.00	0.03	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.03	27.27	23.80	-0.02	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.03	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.03	35.00	35.31	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.03	76.19	72.91	0.03	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.03	86.96	85.46	0.04	0.02