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Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


Boise St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:85.7
Current RPI:9
Expected SOS:115
Current SOS:24
Current Record:4-1
Expected Record:18-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:4-1
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:47
Expected OOC SOS:132



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-311.50.02%
24-416.40.08%
23-523.60.55%
22-630.11.71%
21-740.34.89%
20-851.210.44%
19-963.815.83%
18-1077.119.53%
17-1192.918.22%
16-12110.114.00%
15-13126.08.54%
14-14144.14.05%
13-15163.51.44%
12-16181.90.58%
11-17206.60.09%
10-18218.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boise St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14San Diego (116.1)WCCN75-81W100%0.0
11-15Loyola Marymount (238.6)WCCA69-77W100%0.0
11-18Montana (174.5)BSkyH72-67W100%0.0
11-22Wisconsin (5.6)B10A78-54L0%0.0
11-25Idaho (220.3)BSkyH86-75W100%0.0
11-28North Carolina St. (34.5)ACCA0-021%-9.7
12-6Saint Mary's (44.1)WCCA0-026%-7.8
12-14Southern Utah (339.7)BSkyH0-098%23.7
12-20Abilene Christian (315.7)SlndH0-096%20.5
12-22Houston (141.4)AmerN0-060%3.1
12-31Colorado St. (54.8)MWCA0-032%-5.7
1-3Utah St. (151.4)MWCH0-073%7.2
1-10Wyoming (87.2)MWCA0-033%-5.2
1-13UNLV (125.0)MWCH0-071%6.8
1-18New Mexico (133.3)MWCA0-044%-1.9
1-21San Jose St. (307.3)MWCH0-092%17.2
1-24Air Force (197.6)MWCA0-059%2.7
1-27Colorado St. (54.8)MWCH0-055%1.5
2-3Utah St. (151.4)MWCA0-050%0.0
2-8San Diego St. (17.7)MWCH0-030%-6.3
2-11Air Force (197.6)MWCH0-080%9.9
2-14Fresno St. (273.6)MWCA0-072%7.0
2-18UNLV (125.0)MWCA0-049%-0.4
2-21Nevada (187.5)MWCH0-075%8.3
2-24New Mexico (133.3)MWCH0-067%5.3
2-28San Diego St. (17.7)MWCA0-013%-13.5
3-4San Jose St. (307.3)MWCA0-080%10.0
3-7Fresno St. (273.6)MWCH0-088%14.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boise St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Boise St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Boise St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Boise St.MWC31.8326.3985.7164.8622.747.84
UNLVMWC0.004.4975.0052.530.000.23
San Diego St.MWC0.004.4983.3384.960.003.14
New MexicoMWC0.004.4860.0056.420.000.58
Colorado St.MWC1.674.48100.0069.121.671.71
Air ForceMWC0.004.4833.3346.64-0.00-0.30
Fresno St.MWC0.004.450.0023.23-0.00-2.38
Utah St.MWC0.004.4560.0056.310.000.56
San Jose St.MWC0.004.450.0019.70-0.00-2.69
NevadaMWC0.002.7925.0044.09-0.00-0.33
WyomingMWC0.002.79100.0069.680.001.10
San DiegoWCC10.001.98100.0051.8610.000.07
MontanaBSky10.001.9550.0052.970.000.12
Saint Mary'sWCC0.001.92100.0071.740.000.83
Loyola MarymountWCC10.001.9266.6726.313.33-0.91
Southern UtahBSky0.001.910.0016.95-0.00-1.26
IdahoBSky10.001.8850.0050.130.000.00
HoustonAmer0.001.8266.6761.100.000.40
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.001.820.0031.96-0.00-0.66
North Carolina St.ACC0.001.79100.0064.980.000.53
WisconsinB1010.001.79100.0085.9810.001.29
PepperdineWCC0.000.3366.6755.570.000.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.3333.3339.69-0.00-0.07
PortlandWCC0.000.32100.0051.720.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.320.0024.87-0.00-0.16
BYUWCC0.000.3250.0067.000.000.11
Weber St.BSky0.000.2925.0052.85-0.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.2933.3331.37-0.00-0.11
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.260.0052.30-0.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.2620.0050.03-0.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.2550.0071.940.000.11
UC DavisBW0.000.23100.0053.380.000.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.2350.0058.990.000.04
Montana St.BSky0.000.230.0020.63-0.00-0.13
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.2050.0045.290.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.20100.0088.520.000.15
CaliforniaP120.000.1980.0070.250.000.08
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1820.0038.42-0.00-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1780.0074.900.000.08
North DakotaBSky0.000.1733.3351.34-0.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.17100.0056.970.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.1675.0060.100.000.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1625.0033.19-0.00-0.05
USCP120.000.1550.0028.760.00-0.07
CincinnatiAmer0.000.15100.0061.080.000.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1316.6731.72-0.00-0.05
DenverSum0.000.1350.0060.810.000.03
WashingtonP120.000.13100.0055.210.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum1.670.1333.3354.73-0.560.01
Texas TechB120.000.1375.0045.520.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.1333.3367.52-0.000.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1350.0065.310.000.04
UC RiversideBW1.250.130.0024.69-1.25-0.06
Cal PolyBW0.000.1333.3335.63-0.00-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1225.0035.38-0.00-0.04
ArizonaP120.000.12100.0075.690.000.06
UtahP120.000.1275.0073.450.000.06
SeattleWAC1.670.1025.0044.95-0.83-0.01
Washington St.P120.000.1033.3329.54-0.00-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1050.0050.040.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.100.0024.09-0.00-0.05
Northern KentuckyASun1.000.1025.0039.50-0.50-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0966.6753.550.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0960.0055.460.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0975.0051.040.000.00
Arizona St.P121.250.0960.0053.110.250.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.090.0022.25-0.00-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0940.0046.02-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.090.0038.82-0.00-0.02
StanfordP120.000.0980.0070.970.000.04
SMUAmer0.000.0950.0065.300.000.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0925.0051.07-0.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0975.0055.330.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0960.0050.320.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0960.0050.770.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0940.0038.08-0.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0960.0057.880.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.07100.0069.410.000.03
Georgia St.SB0.000.0760.0067.690.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.070.0020.69-0.00-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.07100.0052.660.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0725.0031.71-0.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0725.0036.41-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0750.0040.810.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0733.3354.15-0.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.070.0036.91-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.500.0725.0044.18-1.25-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0720.0034.64-0.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0733.3350.63-0.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.070.0028.78-0.00-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.07100.0072.490.000.03
Florida A&MMEAC1.250.060.0018.42-1.25-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0620.0034.26-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0031.85-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0035.63-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6739.87-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0675.0068.330.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0064.230.000.02
IowaB100.000.0666.6765.830.000.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0620.0033.15-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0650.0068.710.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0650.0055.290.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0045.580.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0683.3339.590.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0683.3348.410.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.0666.6740.010.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0675.0053.300.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0666.6739.850.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.06100.0083.600.000.04
PurdueB100.000.0683.3368.600.000.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0650.0063.440.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3346.13-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0633.3338.74-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0620.0021.73-0.00-0.03
KansasB120.000.0666.6759.280.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3357.92-0.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0633.3359.02-0.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0675.0068.260.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0675.0055.290.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0675.0067.420.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0073.600.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0666.6751.600.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.0366.6761.870.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0054.340.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0057.480.000.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0350.0046.630.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0046.27-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0340.0026.51-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0047.310.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC1.670.0350.0047.220.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0048.64-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0068.13-0.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0056.00-0.000.00
UCLAP120.000.0380.0063.410.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3329.25-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0325.0026.31-0.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC1.250.0366.6753.510.420.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0084.900.000.02
XavierBE0.000.03100.0077.810.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0060.970.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0350.0044.930.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0380.0066.690.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0064.150.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0058.520.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0064.180.000.01
ChattanoogaSC1.000.0325.0047.86-0.50-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0069.010.000.01
Green BayHorz1.000.0375.0077.520.500.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0366.6773.440.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.110.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0380.0057.110.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0350.0037.010.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.03100.0071.860.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.610.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0375.0072.040.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0015.65-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0333.3367.86-0.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0074.750.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3330.44-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0350.0024.520.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0035.41-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.030.0030.90-0.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0350.0032.470.00-0.01
UABCUSA1.000.0325.0040.45-0.50-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0340.0038.71-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0049.260.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0360.0068.220.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0320.0043.55-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0025.58-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0071.830.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0079.150.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0079.800.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0383.3369.220.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0064.050.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0380.0068.140.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0044.110.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0360.0036.000.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0069.720.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0380.0077.430.000.02