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Through games of Jan 31, 2015.


Boise St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:62.9
Current RPI:52
Expected SOS:119
Current SOS:93
Current Record:13-6
Expected Record:20-9
Current Conf Record:5-3
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-0
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:55
Expected OOC SOS:173



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-633.51.77%
22-740.811.12%
21-850.626.55%
20-963.330.80%
19-1078.020.62%
18-1192.67.41%
17-12106.41.44%
16-13121.60.28%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boise St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14San Diego (152.5)WCCN75-81W100%0.0
11-15Loyola Marymount (232.7)WCCA69-77W100%0.0
11-18Montana (180.9)BSkyH72-67W100%0.0
11-22Wisconsin (6.1)B10A78-54L0%0.0
11-25Idaho (245.4)BSkyN86-75W100%0.0
11-28North Carolina St. (58.2)ACCA60-54L0%0.0
12-6Saint Mary's (62.8)WCCA71-82W100%0.0
12-14Southern Utah (322.1)BSkyH79-60W100%0.0
12-20Abilene Christian (300.3)SlndH77-33W100%0.0
12-22Houston (257.9)AmerN73-75W100%0.0
12-23Loyola Chicago (139.8)MVCN48-45L0%0.0
12-31Colorado St. (32.0)MWCA71-65L0%0.0
1-3Utah St. (156.2)MWCH61-62L0%0.0
1-10Wyoming (84.4)MWCA65-54L0%0.0
1-13UNLV (98.6)MWCH82-73W100%0.0
1-18New Mexico (94.8)MWCA59-69W100%0.0
1-21San Jose St. (335.6)MWCH86-36W100%0.0
1-24Air Force (265.2)MWCA68-77W100%0.0
1-27Colorado St. (32.0)MWCH82-78W100%0.0
2-3Utah St. (156.2)MWCA0-060%2.7
2-8San Diego St. (25.9)MWCH0-049%-0.3
2-11Air Force (265.2)MWCH0-090%14.2
2-14Fresno St. (221.9)MWCA0-077%8.1
2-18UNLV (98.6)MWCA0-053%0.8
2-21Nevada (292.8)MWCH0-094%17.0
2-24New Mexico (94.8)MWCH0-073%6.7
2-28San Diego St. (25.9)MWCA0-025%-7.2
3-4San Jose St. (335.6)MWCA0-098%23.7
3-7Fresno St. (221.9)MWCH0-091%15.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boise St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Boise St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Boise St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Boise St.MWC26.3826.3471.7672.0711.4811.62
Colorado St.MWC5.604.3289.4784.354.422.97
UNLVMWC3.044.3260.0058.280.610.72
San Diego St.MWC0.584.3176.1977.460.302.37
New MexicoMWC3.094.3170.0066.591.241.43
Air ForceMWC3.094.3038.8939.05-0.69-0.94
Utah St.MWC2.964.2852.6354.030.160.35
San Jose St.MWC3.154.280.001.48-3.15-4.15
Fresno St.MWC0.394.2840.0039.23-0.08-0.92
NevadaMWC0.452.6722.2225.98-0.25-1.28
WyomingMWC3.022.6778.9572.801.751.22
San DiegoWCC2.751.9052.3849.540.13-0.02
MontanaBSky2.831.8852.9456.120.170.23
Southern UtahBSky2.831.8823.5326.48-1.50-0.88
Loyola MarymountWCC2.821.8528.5728.34-1.21-0.80
Saint Mary'sWCC2.811.8480.0073.901.690.88
IdahoBSky2.631.8237.5045.30-0.66-0.17
Loyola ChicagoMVC2.781.7952.6354.660.150.17
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.761.7835.2932.79-0.81-0.61
HoustonAmer2.701.7542.1138.39-0.43-0.41
North Carolina St.ACC2.631.7259.0956.210.480.21
WisconsinB102.631.7290.0087.882.111.31
PacificWCC0.370.3335.0030.78-0.11-0.13
Idaho St.BSky0.350.3115.0021.32-0.25-0.18
PepperdineWCC0.310.3061.9060.760.070.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.380.3042.8640.14-0.05-0.06
PortlandWCC0.310.3050.0049.030.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.250.3068.1868.210.090.11
Weber St.BSky0.290.2836.8442.01-0.08-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.340.2545.0049.35-0.03-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.340.2450.0054.030.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.380.2352.3861.790.020.05
Montana St.BSky0.280.2215.0017.85-0.19-0.14
UC DavisBW0.280.2277.7869.520.160.08
San FranciscoWCC0.320.2136.3640.39-0.09-0.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.300.1968.4264.160.110.05
Texas TechB120.200.1850.0039.860.00-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.180.1895.4594.860.170.16
CaliforniaP120.200.1857.1447.870.03-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.1830.0038.13-0.03-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.150.1672.2273.710.070.08
North DakotaBSky0.150.1627.7832.64-0.07-0.05
Portland St.BSky0.220.1650.0046.310.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.280.1531.8237.46-0.10-0.04
ColoradoP120.260.1552.3850.450.010.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.130.1531.5831.34-0.05-0.06
USCP120.190.1545.0038.92-0.02-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1475.0073.880.060.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.220.1268.1870.090.080.05
Cal PolyBW0.060.1244.4448.13-0.01-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1271.4366.420.060.04
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1261.9062.150.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.190.1257.8955.720.030.01
UC IrvineBW0.120.1257.8960.710.020.03
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1235.0035.67-0.04-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.140.1272.2275.610.060.06
WashingtonP120.070.1270.0062.930.030.03
DenverSum0.250.1240.9144.93-0.05-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.130.1242.1137.78-0.02-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.070.1233.3331.17-0.02-0.04
ArizonaP120.060.1190.9188.590.050.09
UtahP120.060.1178.9580.300.040.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0935.0037.17-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.140.0944.4447.73-0.02-0.00
Washington St.P120.150.0947.6239.12-0.01-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.220.0935.0039.94-0.07-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.130.0944.4443.51-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.190.0985.7185.840.140.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.210.0931.8234.59-0.08-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0935.7133.63-0.02-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.140.0936.8436.89-0.04-0.02
South DakotaSum0.140.0940.9142.86-0.02-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.140.090.003.31-0.14-0.08
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.0947.6248.94-0.01-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0947.6253.91-0.000.01
TulaneAmer0.130.0957.1451.350.020.00
TulsaAmer0.140.0980.0073.410.080.04
Arizona St.P120.120.0950.0051.280.000.00
SMUAmer0.130.0980.9577.890.080.05
StanfordP120.120.0971.4368.260.050.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.190.0942.1149.83-0.03-0.00
ClemsonACC0.060.0961.9054.070.010.01
TempleAmer0.060.0968.1865.090.020.03
NebraskaB100.120.0957.1448.260.02-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0945.0040.95-0.01-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.180.0955.5654.030.020.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0961.9055.030.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0928.5731.94-0.02-0.03
ArmyPat0.070.0665.0060.170.020.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.060.005.54-0.07-0.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0631.8229.88-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.070.0627.7831.47-0.03-0.02
BradleyMVC0.070.0627.2726.92-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.070.0623.8124.55-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0661.5465.360.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0647.6244.77-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.070.0641.1838.51-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0690.9187.360.050.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0621.0537.92-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0636.3635.61-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0650.0047.440.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.140.0644.4443.28-0.02-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0621.4334.17-0.03-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.140.0633.3332.33-0.05-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.0619.0526.06-0.08-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.060.003.52-0.13-0.06
MaristMAAC0.000.0614.2916.72-0.00-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0645.0037.75-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.0640.0039.51-0.02-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.0623.8134.41-0.06-0.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0666.6764.960.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.140.0613.3317.04-0.10-0.04
AlbanyAE0.060.0666.6768.270.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3333.68-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0622.7325.26-0.00-0.03
George MasonA100.060.0631.5830.42-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.130.0666.6769.040.040.02
KansasB120.060.0685.7177.830.040.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0655.5654.050.010.00
MemphisAmer0.130.0661.9061.480.030.01
MercerSC0.130.0647.6252.00-0.010.00
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0636.3643.14-0.02-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0675.0066.870.030.02
UCFAmer0.070.0640.0039.33-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.130.0666.6769.240.040.02
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0680.9579.380.040.03
DukeACC0.120.0685.7184.620.090.04
IowaB100.130.0661.9062.540.030.01
North CarolinaACC0.060.0677.2774.970.030.03
NorthwesternB100.060.0647.6242.03-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.120.0663.6460.040.030.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0695.0091.130.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.060.0645.4539.76-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0659.0955.340.000.01
Penn St.B100.060.0663.6453.800.020.00
DavidsonA100.070.0372.2273.480.030.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0363.1661.830.020.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0338.8936.88-0.02-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0335.2930.55-0.02-0.01
CreightonBE0.060.0343.4838.74-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.070.0331.5828.68-0.03-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0352.6360.480.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0314.2917.22-0.05-0.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0354.5546.520.01-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.070.0370.0064.720.030.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0320.0024.85-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0326.6741.31-0.03-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0335.0032.55-0.02-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0365.2265.290.020.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0343.7551.40-0.010.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0371.4365.190.000.01
St. John'sBE0.060.0365.0059.420.020.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0383.3384.640.050.02
DePaulBE0.060.0347.8342.09-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.070.0335.0045.71-0.02-0.00
StetsonASun0.070.0321.0524.70-0.04-0.02
UCLAP120.060.0359.0957.470.010.00
XavierBE0.060.0363.6464.030.020.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0357.8959.320.000.01
HarvardIvy0.070.0368.7569.630.020.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0314.2918.51-0.05-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.070.0380.9581.980.040.02
RiceCUSA0.070.0323.5325.88-0.03-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.070.0326.3228.59-0.03-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0370.0068.150.030.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0361.9060.960.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.060.0352.3845.640.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.060.0371.4367.480.030.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0347.6245.06-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.060.0375.0075.520.030.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0360.8764.330.010.01
IllinoisB100.000.0363.6460.730.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0372.7366.680.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0319.0518.75-0.04-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0376.1974.490.030.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0385.7180.350.000.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0347.6243.52-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0381.8276.540.000.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0370.0065.890.020.01
MichiganB100.060.0360.0052.430.010.00
Notre DameACC0.060.0386.9682.950.040.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0377.2777.460.000.02
OklahomaB120.060.0366.6768.000.020.01
RichmondA100.060.0357.1460.410.010.01
RutgersB100.060.0343.4836.37-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6758.780.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.060.0365.0055.020.020.00
UABCUSA0.060.0347.6251.78-0.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0342.8636.75-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0385.7175.730.040.01
WoffordSC0.060.0376.1975.610.030.01