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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


Boise St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:79.5
Current RPI:84
Expected SOS:116
Current SOS:104
Current Record:14-7
Expected Record:19-10
Current Conf Record:7-3
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:86
Expected OOC SOS:101



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-747.71.81%
21-857.911.33%
20-968.326.54%
19-1079.930.84%
18-1193.420.37%
17-12109.37.54%
16-13126.81.31%
15-14146.70.25%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boise St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Montana (153.5)BSkyA74-72L0%0.0
11-16Northern Arizona (329.4)BSkyH101-81W100%0.0
11-19Arizona (28.8)P12A88-76L0%0.0
11-26UC Irvine (68.7)BWN71-64W100%0.0
11-27Michigan St. (19.2)B10N77-67L0%0.0
11-29Arizona (28.8)P12N68-59L0%0.0
12-5Portland (249.8)WCCA71-81W100%0.0
12-9Loyola Marymount (228.7)WCCH67-66W100%0.0
12-12Oregon (5.9)P12H74-72W100%0.0
12-20Bradley (313.9)MVCH90-70W100%0.0
12-30UC Davis (266.2)BWH64-56W100%0.0
1-2Colorado St. (188.2)MWCH84-80W100%0.0
1-5Utah St. (154.2)MWCA61-76W100%0.0
1-9Fresno St. (138.2)MWCH81-70W100%0.0
1-13Nevada (129.7)MWCA67-74W100%0.0
1-16San Diego St. (55.3)MWCH53-56L0%0.0
1-20San Jose St. (299.1)MWCH94-69W100%0.0
1-23Wyoming (190.3)MWCA71-81W100%0.0
1-27UNLV (110.5)MWCA87-77L0%0.0
1-30New Mexico (90.1)MWCH83-88L0%0.0
2-2Utah St. (154.2)MWCH70-67W100%0.0
2-6Air Force (247.0)MWCA0-084%10.9
2-10Colorado St. (188.2)MWCA0-059%2.6
2-13Wyoming (190.3)MWCH0-084%11.0
2-17New Mexico (90.1)MWCA0-037%-3.7
2-23UNLV (110.5)MWCH0-058%2.2
2-27San Diego St. (55.3)MWCA0-032%-5.0
3-2Nevada (129.7)MWCH0-077%8.2
3-5San Jose St. (299.1)MWCA0-082%10.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boise St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Boise St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Boise St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Boise St.MWC26.4326.4164.5266.097.678.50
Colorado St.MWC2.954.3952.6350.850.160.07
UNLVMWC3.064.3750.0056.450.000.56
San Diego St.MWC3.044.3270.0069.851.221.72
San Jose St.MWC2.984.3226.3223.68-1.41-2.27
Utah St.MWC5.224.3152.9453.330.310.29
New MexicoMWC2.864.3061.9062.880.681.11
WyomingMWC2.854.2942.8642.87-0.41-0.61
NevadaMWC2.844.2961.1159.560.630.82
ArizonaP125.053.6376.1975.662.641.86
Fresno St.MWC2.942.7763.1659.340.770.52
Air ForceMWC0.712.7242.8635.74-0.10-0.78
UC IrvineBW2.681.9176.1974.141.400.92
OregonP122.651.9085.7180.911.901.17
PortlandWCC2.561.8839.1337.80-0.56-0.46
Loyola MarymountWCC2.541.8742.8642.48-0.36-0.28
MontanaBSky2.501.8552.9459.340.150.35
Northern ArizonaBSky2.551.855.5610.58-2.27-1.46
UC DavisBW2.481.8438.8935.51-0.55-0.53
BradleyMVC2.481.789.0910.11-2.03-1.42
Michigan St.B102.381.7281.8280.761.521.06
Montana St.BSky0.420.4438.1041.23-0.10-0.08
Santa ClaraWCC0.430.3331.8232.32-0.16-0.12
Long Beach St.BW0.390.3242.8651.33-0.060.01
PacificWCC0.380.2921.0524.61-0.22-0.15
CaliforniaP120.270.2963.6461.810.070.07
San DiegoWCC0.340.2733.3329.23-0.11-0.11
Cal St. FullertonBW0.400.2736.8432.84-0.11-0.09
GonzagaWCC0.390.2477.2776.130.210.13
BYUWCC0.340.2469.5773.030.130.11
ColoradoP120.220.2372.7366.970.100.08
New Mexico St.WAC0.220.2363.6468.210.060.08
UCLAP120.210.2356.5253.350.030.02
Washington St.P120.320.2338.1033.45-0.08-0.08
USCP120.210.2278.2673.130.120.10
UC RiversideBW0.230.2147.8343.92-0.01-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.230.2131.5836.16-0.09-0.06
Oregon St.P120.270.2160.0054.590.050.02
Arizona St.P120.210.2052.1750.240.010.00
IdahoBSky0.250.1957.1457.940.040.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.310.1944.4448.52-0.03-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.190.1915.7916.39-0.13-0.13
Idaho St.BSky0.240.1942.1142.70-0.04-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.240.1968.4271.820.090.08
Portland St.BSky0.180.1933.3339.27-0.06-0.04
HawaiiBW0.130.1883.3380.130.080.11
PepperdineWCC0.280.1859.0958.100.050.03
San FranciscoWCC0.280.1852.3848.890.01-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.220.1885.0085.230.150.13
Wichita St.MVC0.220.1876.1979.640.120.11
WashingtonP120.170.1768.1862.190.060.04
Northern IowaMVC0.220.1752.1754.140.010.01
UtahP120.110.1772.7368.550.050.06
StanfordP120.160.1752.6347.690.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.190.1630.0029.98-0.08-0.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.170.1530.0028.61-0.07-0.07
KansasB120.230.1580.9577.000.140.08
North Dakota St.Sum0.250.1361.9060.410.060.03
North DakotaBSky0.180.1344.4446.94-0.02-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.230.1240.9138.03-0.04-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.1240.0049.74-0.02-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.180.1265.0067.510.050.04
DrakeMVC0.110.1222.7324.85-0.06-0.06
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1252.1747.620.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.1254.5555.310.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.170.1273.9176.040.080.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1275.0073.480.050.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.110.1210.0015.28-0.09-0.08
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1140.9139.22-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.190.1050.0053.090.000.01
SeattleWAC0.120.1045.0042.81-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.190.1035.0035.36-0.06-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.120.0990.0086.120.100.07
DenverSum0.050.0952.1748.790.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.0933.3333.55-0.04-0.03
IndianaB100.060.0982.6177.370.040.05
OaklandHorz0.110.0966.6767.310.040.03
Ohio St.B100.000.0958.3354.120.000.01
RiceCUSA0.110.0925.0028.19-0.06-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.160.0878.2671.960.090.04
PurdueB100.050.0882.6178.230.040.05
DukeACC0.130.0672.7369.920.060.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0665.2256.530.020.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0657.1457.560.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.130.0615.0015.65-0.09-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0657.8957.330.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.0638.1047.51-0.03-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0645.4541.98-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0681.8281.010.040.04
HoustonAmer0.050.0672.7368.010.020.02
Kansas St.B120.060.0659.0955.550.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0647.8350.56-0.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0659.0959.470.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.064.7614.01-0.05-0.04
South DakotaSum0.060.0639.1339.48-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0663.1666.150.010.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0623.8125.03-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.060.0650.0050.040.000.00
West VirginiaB120.060.0681.8278.720.040.03
Boston CollegeACC0.110.0631.8226.61-0.04-0.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0642.8637.19-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.100.0681.8279.900.070.03
MissouriSEC0.100.0636.3630.98-0.03-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.0618.7526.09-0.06-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0640.9143.01-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0647.8343.63-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.050.0622.7320.68-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0647.6257.27-0.000.01
WisconsinB100.050.0660.8755.900.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0360.0061.350.010.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0363.6459.950.020.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0326.0925.56-0.03-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0314.2916.31-0.04-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.0354.5556.020.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0310.0014.87-0.05-0.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0333.3332.69-0.02-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0317.3921.76-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0029.52-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0366.6765.410.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0335.0031.39-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0357.1452.310.010.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0333.3334.18-0.02-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0345.0041.83-0.01-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0361.9058.190.010.00
BaylorB120.050.0376.1967.350.030.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0322.7323.64-0.03-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0350.0056.540.000.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0363.6456.050.010.00
NavyPat0.050.0365.2265.230.020.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0329.4138.47-0.02-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0347.3750.51-0.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0331.5833.51-0.02-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0372.7368.630.020.01
TCUB120.050.0345.4537.84-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0363.6457.330.010.00
UCFAmer0.050.0355.0047.170.01-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0365.0068.750.020.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0380.9583.050.030.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0381.8276.020.030.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0321.7424.60-0.03-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0322.7326.19-0.03-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0338.8943.22-0.01-0.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0368.1867.800.020.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0323.8128.31-0.03-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0347.8344.51-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0381.8277.490.030.02
MarylandB100.050.0386.9681.770.040.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0327.2732.84-0.02-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0372.7367.980.000.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0326.0927.81-0.02-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0352.1751.560.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0347.8348.69-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0366.6763.480.020.01