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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Boise St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:40.0
Current RPI:40
Expected SOS:117
Current SOS:117
Current Record:23-8
Expected Record:23-8
Current Conf Record:15-5
Expected Conf Record:15-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-0
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:53
Expected OOC SOS:165



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-840.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boise St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14San Diego (157.0)WCCN75-81W100%0.0
11-15Loyola Marymount (268.0)WCCA69-77W100%0.0
11-18Montana (144.0)BSkyH72-67W100%0.0
11-22Wisconsin (4.0)B10A78-54L0%0.0
11-25Idaho (267.0)BSkyN86-75W100%0.0
11-28North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCA60-54L0%0.0
12-6Saint Mary's (68.0)WCCA71-82W100%0.0
12-14Southern Utah (307.0)BSkyH79-60W100%0.0
12-20Abilene Christian (324.0)SlndH77-33W100%0.0
12-22Houston (239.0)AmerN73-75W100%0.0
12-23Loyola Chicago (123.0)MVCN48-45L0%0.0
12-31Colorado St. (29.0)MWCA71-65L0%0.0
1-3Utah St. (143.0)MWCH61-62L0%0.0
1-10Wyoming (71.0)MWCA65-54L0%0.0
1-13UNLV (114.0)MWCH82-73W100%0.0
1-18New Mexico (172.0)MWCA59-69W100%0.0
1-21San Jose St. (336.0)MWCH86-36W100%0.0
1-24Air Force (240.0)MWCA68-77W100%0.0
1-27Colorado St. (29.0)MWCH82-78W100%0.0
2-3Utah St. (143.0)MWCA63-68W100%0.0
2-8San Diego St. (26.0)MWCH61-46W100%0.0
2-11Air Force (240.0)MWCH67-42W100%0.0
2-14Fresno St. (182.0)MWCA70-64L0%0.0
2-18UNLV (114.0)MWCA48-53W100%0.0
2-21Nevada (306.0)MWCH78-46W100%0.0
2-24New Mexico (172.0)MWCH76-65W100%0.0
2-28San Diego St. (26.0)MWCA46-56W100%0.0
3-4San Jose St. (336.0)MWCA51-68W100%0.0
3-7Fresno St. (182.0)MWCH71-52W100%0.0
3-12Air Force (240.0)MWCN80-68W100%0.0
3-13Wyoming (71.0)MWCN66-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boise St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Boise St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Boise St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Boise St.MWC26.4126.4177.3077.3014.4214.42
Air ForceMWC5.685.6846.1546.15-0.44-0.44
San Diego St.MWC4.254.2580.6580.652.612.61
Colorado St.MWC4.214.2183.3383.332.802.80
WyomingMWC4.204.2070.0070.001.681.68
UNLVMWC4.184.1856.6756.670.560.56
New MexicoMWC4.184.1851.7251.720.140.14
Utah St.MWC4.134.1357.1457.140.590.59
Fresno St.MWC4.094.0942.8642.86-0.58-0.58
San Jose St.MWC4.074.070.000.00-4.07-4.07
NevadaMWC2.612.6125.0025.00-1.31-1.31
San DiegoWCC1.771.7748.2848.28-0.06-0.06
MontanaBSky1.751.7562.0762.070.420.42
Southern UtahBSky1.751.7533.3333.33-0.58-0.58
Loyola MarymountWCC1.721.7224.1424.14-0.89-0.89
Saint Mary'sWCC1.721.7271.4371.430.740.74
IdahoBSky1.701.7040.7440.74-0.31-0.31
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.671.6755.1755.170.170.17
Abilene ChristianSlnd1.661.6625.9325.93-0.80-0.80
HoustonAmer1.641.6441.9441.94-0.26-0.26
North Carolina St.ACC1.611.6159.3859.380.300.30
WisconsinB101.611.6190.9190.911.321.32
PepperdineWCC0.300.3056.6756.670.040.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.300.3040.0040.00-0.06-0.06
PortlandWCC0.300.3050.0050.000.000.00
PacificWCC0.300.3032.1432.14-0.11-0.11
Weber St.BSky0.280.2839.2939.29-0.06-0.06
Idaho St.BSky0.270.2717.8617.86-0.18-0.18
BYUWCC0.270.2771.8871.880.120.12
Northern ArizonaBSky0.250.2556.2556.250.030.03
Montana St.BSky0.240.2420.6920.69-0.14-0.14
Northern ColoradoBSky0.240.2446.4346.43-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.230.2367.7467.740.080.08
UC DavisBW0.220.2279.3179.310.130.13
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.200.2074.1974.190.090.09
San FranciscoWCC0.190.1941.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.190.1940.6240.62-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.180.1846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.180.1854.5554.550.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.170.1762.0762.070.040.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.160.1693.9493.940.140.14
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.140.1448.1548.15-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.140.1421.4321.43-0.08-0.08
Cal St. FullertonBW0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
USCP120.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1172.4172.410.050.05
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
WashingtonP120.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
East CarolinaAmer0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
TulaneAmer0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
ArizonaP120.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
UtahP120.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
PittsburghACC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Washington St.P120.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
SeattleWAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.080.000.00-0.08-0.08
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.080.0829.6329.63-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0890.9190.910.070.07
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
Arizona St.P120.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
South DakotaSum0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
ClemsonACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0759.2659.260.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
NebraskaB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
PurdueB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0658.3358.330.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0642.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Georgia St.SB0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0590.6290.620.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0374.0774.070.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
RichmondA100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
WoffordSC0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
IllinoisB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
IndianaB100.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
Ohio St.B100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
OklahomaB120.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
RutgersB100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00