live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Montana St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:290.7
Current RPI:281
Expected SOS:192
Current SOS:171
Current Record:2-7
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-10
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:278
Expected OOC SOS:89



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13132.00.01%
15-14161.00.05%
14-15182.50.41%
13-16203.60.98%
12-17225.73.53%
11-18247.67.88%
10-19267.713.51%
9-20285.418.75%
8-21300.120.60%
7-22311.617.22%
6-23320.510.75%
5-24327.84.65%
4-25333.91.41%
3-26339.80.21%
2-27343.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Montana St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UCLA (69.3)P12A113-78L0%0.0
11-17Grand Canyon (288.2)WACA61-45L0%0.0
11-19Cal St. Northridge (292.7)BWA72-65L0%0.0
11-23Kentucky (1.6)SECA86-28L0%0.0
11-28UT Arlington (142.0)SBH104-81W100%0.0
11-30North Dakota St. (163.9)SumH51-72L0%0.0
12-6Utah Valley (280.5)WACH68-60W100%0.0
12-14Wyoming (72.2)MWCA70-61L0%0.0
12-18South Dakota (254.7)SumA55-53L0%0.0
12-20Portland (183.7)WCCA0-013%-13.3
12-23Wyoming (72.2)MWCH0-014%-12.5
1-1North Dakota (272.7)BSkyH0-064%4.3
1-3Northern Colorado (178.5)BSkyH0-034%-4.9
1-8Idaho St. (299.2)BSkyA0-030%-6.3
1-10Weber St. (246.4)BSkyA0-023%-8.6
1-17Montana (163.2)BSkyA0-013%-13.5
1-22Southern Utah (317.4)BSkyH0-069%5.8
1-24Northern Arizona (212.3)BSkyH0-043%-2.1
1-29Sacramento St. (258.9)BSkyA0-027%-7.0
1-31Portland St. (270.4)BSkyA0-032%-5.5
2-5Idaho (225.1)BSkyH0-043%-2.0
2-7Eastern Washington (58.5)BSkyH0-014%-12.4
2-12Northern Colorado (178.5)BSkyA0-012%-13.6
2-14North Dakota (272.7)BSkyA0-035%-4.5
2-19Weber St. (246.4)BSkyH0-050%0.1
2-21Idaho St. (299.2)BSkyH0-058%2.5
2-26Eastern Washington (58.5)BSkyA0-04%-21.2
2-28Idaho (225.1)BSkyA0-018%-10.8
3-7Montana (163.2)BSkyH0-034%-4.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Montana St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Montana St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Montana St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Montana St.BSky27.5226.3919.3527.18-16.87-12.05
MontanaBSky0.314.3925.0050.14-0.150.01
Idaho St.BSky0.564.3614.2931.57-0.40-1.61
Weber St.BSky0.314.3228.5740.49-0.13-0.82
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.314.3066.6775.960.102.23
IdahoBSky0.004.2737.5048.27-0.00-0.15
Northern ColoradoBSky0.314.2628.5755.69-0.130.49
North DakotaBSky0.314.2425.0031.42-0.15-1.58
WyomingMWC5.563.5175.0071.942.781.54
Sacramento St.BSky0.312.7042.8641.16-0.04-0.48
Portland St.BSky0.282.6650.0040.780.00-0.49
Southern UtahBSky0.312.6316.6727.43-0.21-1.19
Northern ArizonaBSky0.002.6140.0050.56-0.000.03
Utah ValleyWAC5.812.1637.5041.86-1.45-0.35
South DakotaSum6.141.9120.0036.79-3.69-0.51
North Dakota St.Sum5.561.9150.0054.660.000.18
Grand CanyonWAC6.121.9130.0042.55-2.45-0.28
UT ArlingtonSB6.061.8562.5056.911.520.26
KentuckySEC6.121.81100.0094.626.121.62
PortlandWCC0.001.7966.6746.980.00-0.11
Cal St. NorthridgeBW5.811.7911.1125.73-4.52-0.87
UCLAP125.561.7570.0055.862.220.21
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.3862.5054.970.000.04
SeattleWAC0.280.3137.5046.50-0.07-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.310.2855.5650.970.030.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.2544.4455.75-0.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.250.2510.0030.45-0.20-0.10
DenverSum0.310.2550.0054.230.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.25100.0078.050.000.14
New Mexico St.WAC0.310.2536.3664.92-0.080.07
CaliforniaP120.310.2490.0066.690.250.08
San FranciscoWCC0.000.2250.0053.850.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.2275.0068.680.000.08
UC DavisBW0.310.2285.7161.020.220.05
UNLVMWC0.250.2175.0050.750.130.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.2170.0058.600.000.04
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1944.4445.59-0.00-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.1937.5031.95-0.00-0.07
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1925.0033.17-0.00-0.06
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.1837.5041.20-0.00-0.03
NevadaMWC0.000.1811.1125.02-0.00-0.09
UC RiversideBW0.250.1842.8643.10-0.04-0.02
ColoradoP120.310.1866.6758.240.100.03
Washington St.P120.000.1540.0028.86-0.00-0.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.560.150.0012.36-0.56-0.12
San Jose St.MWC0.000.150.007.84-0.00-0.13
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1530.0029.80-0.00-0.06
San Diego St.MWC0.280.1570.0072.830.110.07
IPFWSum0.000.1357.1456.900.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.1320.0026.33-0.00-0.06
BYUWCC0.000.1366.6767.300.000.04
Chicago St.WAC0.000.120.0011.40-0.00-0.10
StetsonASun0.310.1210.0027.42-0.25-0.06
UMKCWAC0.000.1222.2241.92-0.00-0.02
PacificWCC0.000.1250.0038.180.00-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.250.1290.0090.940.200.10
SMUAmer0.310.1270.0071.330.120.05
UC IrvineBW0.310.1237.5046.78-0.08-0.01
OregonP120.280.1266.6758.060.090.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.250.1236.3638.88-0.07-0.03
UtahP120.000.1277.7879.480.000.07
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0933.3334.28-0.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.0920.0019.99-0.00-0.06
LSUSEC0.000.0980.0064.110.000.03
OklahomaB120.250.0977.7867.290.140.03
IndianaB100.250.0980.0057.630.150.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.250.0950.0074.000.000.04
TexasB120.870.0990.0081.860.700.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0925.0023.43-0.00-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.280.0975.0058.430.140.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0971.4357.100.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.250.0954.5557.300.020.01
WashingtonP120.000.09100.0071.820.000.04
USCP120.000.0960.0036.120.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.590.09100.0080.590.590.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.280.0942.8638.26-0.04-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0033.84-0.00-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.810.0975.0069.120.410.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0977.7855.460.000.01
StanfordP120.250.0975.0057.570.130.01
Long Beach St.BW0.250.0940.0050.07-0.050.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0866.6754.660.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0023.71-0.00-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.0687.5077.020.000.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0666.6764.310.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0655.5638.600.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0650.0032.620.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.310.0640.0050.32-0.060.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0616.6719.68-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0633.3362.92-0.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0655.5647.870.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0677.7864.730.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0690.0078.050.000.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0040.880.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0611.1144.62-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0642.8637.65-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0677.7871.960.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.250.0642.8655.64-0.040.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1461.670.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0637.5034.19-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0633.3345.50-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0666.6762.620.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0662.5071.290.000.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0642.8652.71-0.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3345.28-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0036.67-0.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0050.330.000.00
TroySB0.000.0633.3339.46-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0642.8638.75-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0666.6754.830.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0637.5064.43-0.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0085.330.000.04
MississippiSEC0.000.0670.0052.610.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0660.0064.930.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0662.5059.510.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0644.4431.58-0.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.510.0670.0071.630.200.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0662.5064.260.000.02
AkronMAC0.310.0360.0056.560.060.00
IowaB100.310.0372.7362.590.140.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.310.0336.3633.67-0.08-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0371.4361.370.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.310.0342.8627.08-0.04-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0320.0038.24-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0360.0037.220.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4359.920.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0330.0028.50-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0355.5661.790.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0380.0069.620.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.250.0320.0034.08-0.15-0.01
BradleyMVC0.310.0333.3332.09-0.10-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.250.0385.7170.350.180.01
CreightonBE0.250.0372.7351.560.110.00
FairfieldMAAC0.250.0344.4439.74-0.03-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0385.7172.940.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.310.0320.0039.70-0.19-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.250.0318.1821.30-0.16-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.250.0375.0074.340.130.01
WoffordSC0.250.0377.7876.240.140.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.250.0345.4544.07-0.02-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0344.4445.64-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0318.1835.99-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0350.0056.340.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0344.4470.08-0.000.01
SamfordSC0.280.0333.3331.58-0.09-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0366.6777.690.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0325.0028.68-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0360.0059.420.000.01
XavierBE0.000.0380.0070.960.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0053.820.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0344.4436.35-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.250.0333.3342.19-0.08-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.250.0357.1470.590.040.01
ColumbiaIvy0.250.0362.5064.770.060.01
KansasB120.250.0388.8969.390.200.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0350.0039.340.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.250.030.0018.94-0.25-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.250.0372.7353.260.110.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0377.7865.390.000.01
UABCUSA0.250.0330.0037.28-0.10-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0375.0060.400.000.01