Montana St.

Conference:	BSky
Expected RPI:	275.0
Current RPI:	275
Expected SOS:	303
Current SOS:	303
Current Record:	10-17
Expected Record:	10-17
Current Conf Record:	7-10
Expected Conf Record:	7-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-9
Current OOC Record:	3-7
Expected OOC Record:	3-7
Expected OOC RPI:	280
Expected OOC SOS:	296

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-17	275.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Montana St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Arizona St. (252.0)	P12	A	78-72	L	0%
11-19	Utah (274.0)	P12	A	64-70	W	100%
11-22	Seattle (277.0)	ind	H	73-85	L	0%
11-26	Idaho (146.0)	WAC	A	76-67	L	0%
11-28	San Jose St. (279.0)	WAC	A	70-77	W	100%
12-3	Cal St. Bakersfield (213.0)	ind	H	71-67	W	100%
12-11	UC Riverside (253.0)	BW	H	73-75	L	0%
12-18	Pepperdine (271.0)	WCC	A	59-36	L	0%
12-20	New Mexico (27.0)	MWC	A	91-46	L	0%
12-28	Eastern Washington (209.0)	BSky	H	66-82	L	0%
12-30	Portland St. (187.0)	BSky	H	86-73	W	100%
1-5	Idaho St. (290.0)	BSky	A	69-73	W	100%
1-12	Weber St. (70.0)	BSky	A	63-49	L	0%
1-14	Northern Arizona (337.0)	BSky	A	72-74	W	100%
1-19	Sacramento St. (315.0)	BSky	H	72-65	W	100%
1-21	Northern Colorado (262.0)	BSky	H	84-72	W	100%
1-26	Portland St. (187.0)	BSky	A	65-70	W	100%
1-28	Eastern Washington (209.0)	BSky	A	69-52	L	0%
2-2	Idaho St. (290.0)	BSky	H	86-87	L	0%
2-4	Montana (74.0)	BSky	H	58-67	L	0%
2-9	Sacramento St. (315.0)	BSky	A	86-76	L	0%
2-11	Northern Colorado (262.0)	BSky	A	77-64	L	0%
2-15	Weber St. (70.0)	BSky	H	70-79	L	0%
2-18	Cal St. Fullerton (157.0)	BW	A	80-66	L	0%
2-25	Montana (74.0)	BSky	A	57-47	L	0%
2-27	Northern Arizona (337.0)	BSky	H	79-60	W	100%
3-3	Portland St. (187.0)	BSky	A	75-53	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Montana St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Montana St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Montana St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Montana St.	BSky	26.53	26.53	40.00	40.00	-5.31	-5.31
Portland St.	BSky	6.73	6.73	51.85	51.85	0.25	0.25
Eastern Washington	BSky	4.93	4.93	39.29	39.29	-1.06	-1.06
Weber St.	BSky	4.91	4.91	76.92	76.92	2.64	2.64
Montana	BSky	4.85	4.85	77.78	77.78	2.70	2.70
Idaho St.	BSky	4.82	4.82	25.93	25.93	-2.32	-2.32
Northern Arizona	BSky	4.78	4.78	12.00	12.00	-3.63	-3.63
Sacramento St.	BSky	4.74	4.74	29.17	29.17	-1.98	-1.98
Northern Colorado	BSky	4.68	4.68	29.17	29.17	-1.95	-1.95
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	2.25	2.25	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Idaho	WAC	2.24	2.24	53.57	53.57	0.16	0.16
Seattle	ind	2.23	2.23	34.78	34.78	-0.68	-0.68
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	2.17	2.17	66.67	66.67	0.72	0.72
San Jose St.	WAC	2.16	2.16	27.59	27.59	-0.97	-0.97
Utah	P12	2.07	2.07	17.24	17.24	-1.36	-1.36
Arizona St.	P12	2.04	2.04	30.00	30.00	-0.82	-0.82
Pepperdine	WCC	2.02	2.02	29.63	29.63	-0.82	-0.82
UC Riverside	BW	1.95	1.95	39.29	39.29	-0.42	-0.42
New Mexico	MWC	1.95	1.95	80.65	80.65	1.19	1.19
Cal Poly	BW	0.43	0.43	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.43	0.43	13.33	13.33	-0.32	-0.32
UC Irvine	BW	0.36	0.36	34.48	34.48	-0.11	-0.11
Washington St.	P12	0.35	0.35	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.35	0.35	62.07	62.07	0.08	0.08
Utah St.	WAC	0.33	0.33	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.32	0.32	72.73	72.73	0.15	0.15
Nevada	WAC	0.32	0.32	80.00	80.00	0.19	0.19
Hawaii	WAC	0.32	0.32	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.31	0.31	56.25	56.25	0.04	0.04
North Dakota	GWC	0.29	0.29	48.15	48.15	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.27	0.27	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.26	0.26	58.62	58.62	0.05	0.05
Pacific	BW	0.26	0.26	32.14	32.14	-0.09	-0.09
Oregon	P12	0.25	0.25	70.97	70.97	0.10	0.10
Utah Valley	GWC	0.23	0.23	57.14	57.14	0.03	0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.23	0.23	74.19	74.19	0.11	0.11
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.23	0.23	19.23	19.23	-0.14	-0.14
Long Beach St.	BW	0.23	0.23	74.19	74.19	0.11	0.11
Fresno St.	WAC	0.22	0.22	35.48	35.48	-0.07	-0.07
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.22	0.22	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.20	0.20	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
St. Mary's	WCC	0.19	0.19	83.33	83.33	0.13	0.13
Colorado St.	MWC	0.19	0.19	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
Arizona	P12	0.19	0.19	67.65	67.65	0.07	0.07
California	P12	0.19	0.19	72.73	72.73	0.09	0.09
Colorado	P12	0.19	0.19	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
UCLA	P12	0.19	0.19	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.18	0.18	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Denver	SB	0.16	0.16	70.97	70.97	0.07	0.07
Portland	WCC	0.16	0.16	20.00	20.00	-0.10	-0.10
Stanford	P12	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Southern California	P12	0.15	0.15	18.75	18.75	-0.09	-0.09
Oklahoma	B12	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.13	0.13	64.29	64.29	0.04	0.04
Washington	P12	0.13	0.13	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
Gonzaga	WCC	0.13	0.13	80.65	80.65	0.08	0.08
Santa Clara	WCC	0.13	0.13	21.43	21.43	-0.07	-0.07
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.12	0.12	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
San Diego St.	MWC	0.12	0.12	77.42	77.42	0.07	0.07
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.10	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	Sum	0.10	0.10	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.09	0.09	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Air Force	MWC	0.09	0.09	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	ind	0.08	0.08	22.22	22.22	-0.04	-0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.07	0.07	23.08	23.08	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.07	0.07	86.21	86.21	0.05	0.05
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.07	0.07	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.07	0.07	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.93	25.93	-0.03	-0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.00	28.00	-0.03	-0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Christian	MWC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.04	0.04	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	83.87	83.87	0.02	0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02