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Through games of Jan 16, 2017.


Montana St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:289.3
Current RPI:333
Expected SOS:298
Current SOS:288
Current Record:5-12
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:2-4
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-7
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:312
Expected OOC SOS:237



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-12212.50.02%
16-13216.70.23%
15-14230.61.71%
14-15246.66.06%
13-16262.614.64%
12-17279.822.30%
11-18295.724.21%
10-19309.917.49%
9-20321.69.49%
8-21330.63.09%
7-22337.40.64%
6-23341.50.10%
5-24341.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Montana St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Washington St. (183.3)P12A69-65L0%0.0
11-14Louisiana Lafayette (112.4)SBH84-83W100%0.0
11-18James Madison (247.8)CAAH80-73W100%0.0
11-21Rice (146.5)CUSAA83-78L0%0.0
11-26Delaware St. (322.3)MEACH91-66W100%0.0
12-1Utah (75.2)P12A92-84L0%0.0
12-5Milwaukee (264.6)HorzH78-83L0%0.0
12-7South Dakota (155.0)SumA74-57L0%0.0
12-10Nebraska Omaha (156.0)SumA97-91L0%0.0
12-18South Dakota (155.0)SumH68-80L0%0.0
12-21Central Michigan (180.0)MACH103-106L0%0.0
12-29Weber St. (147.6)BSkyH75-87L0%0.0
12-31Idaho St. (325.3)BSkyH80-63W100%0.0
1-5Eastern Washington (188.9)BSkyA82-64L0%0.0
1-7Idaho (275.2)BSkyA83-81L0%0.0
1-12North Dakota (229.5)BSkyH85-90L0%0.0
1-14Northern Colorado (254.5)BSkyH68-53W100%0.0
1-19Sacramento St. (328.8)BSkyA0-062%3.5
1-21Portland St. (227.3)BSkyA0-034%-4.5
1-26Idaho (275.2)BSkyH0-064%4.0
1-28Eastern Washington (188.9)BSkyH0-056%1.6
2-4Montana (175.0)BSkyA0-021%-8.9
2-9Northern Arizona (339.8)BSkyA0-068%5.3
2-11Southern Utah (335.3)BSkyA0-065%4.5
2-16Portland St. (227.3)BSkyH0-056%1.7
2-18Sacramento St. (328.8)BSkyH0-081%9.7
2-25Montana (175.0)BSkyH0-041%-2.6
3-2Idaho St. (325.3)BSkyA0-060%2.9
3-4Weber St. (147.6)BSkyA0-019%-9.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Montana St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Montana St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Montana St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Montana St.BSky26.7426.3921.1336.69-15.44-7.02
MontanaBSky0.954.4552.6359.860.050.88
Sacramento St.BSky0.464.2821.4325.84-0.26-2.07
IdahoBSky3.344.2830.7742.16-1.28-0.67
Eastern WashingtonBSky3.264.2653.3358.200.220.70
Idaho St.BSky3.144.197.1418.48-2.69-2.64
Weber St.BSky3.144.1950.0061.960.001.00
Portland St.BSky0.214.1953.8554.500.020.38
South DakotaSum5.963.6352.9453.950.350.29
Northern ArizonaBSky0.212.6117.6521.03-0.14-1.51
Northern ColoradoBSky2.942.6135.7143.81-0.84-0.32
Southern UtahBSky0.212.6012.5018.48-0.16-1.64
North DakotaBSky2.942.6041.6752.12-0.490.11
Washington St.P123.051.9746.6733.19-0.20-0.66
Nebraska OmahaSum3.191.8747.0649.62-0.19-0.01
RiceCUSA3.191.8160.0064.830.640.54
Delaware St.MEAC3.121.7818.7530.64-1.95-0.69
James MadisonCAA3.121.7829.4131.35-1.29-0.67
UtahP122.941.7864.2963.410.840.48
Louisiana LafayetteSB3.111.7866.6764.781.040.53
MilwaukeeHorz2.941.7818.7526.07-1.84-0.85
Central MichiganMAC2.941.7257.1452.430.420.08
DenverSum0.460.4061.1157.830.100.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.530.3433.3333.93-0.18-0.11
North Dakota St.Sum0.460.2562.5060.110.120.05
PepperdineWCC0.300.2523.5321.79-0.16-0.14
ColoradoP120.190.2452.9454.280.010.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.2417.6527.61-0.00-0.11
UC DavisBW0.220.2252.9454.860.010.02
StanfordP120.310.2252.9447.220.02-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.190.2261.1158.650.040.04
IUPUISum0.240.2135.2942.41-0.07-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.170.2126.6727.57-0.08-0.09
Utah ValleyWAC0.400.1940.0044.63-0.08-0.02
Little RockSB0.290.1856.2551.280.040.00
Fort WayneSum0.240.1868.7569.250.090.07
San Jose St.MWC0.200.1850.0040.930.00-0.03
USCP120.180.1884.2172.840.120.08
Cal St. FullertonBW0.160.1640.0040.97-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.100.1650.0044.340.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.090.1547.0642.27-0.01-0.02
SeattleWAC0.180.1540.0037.09-0.04-0.04
OregonP120.090.1588.2482.770.070.10
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1353.3361.470.010.03
BYUWCC0.210.1368.4268.160.080.05
Utah St.MWC0.210.1343.7543.67-0.03-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.110.1333.3341.38-0.04-0.02
PortlandWCC0.150.1350.0042.270.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.150.1250.0043.370.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.200.1257.1453.400.030.01
ArizonaP120.200.1288.8983.100.150.08
UC RiversideBW0.200.1215.3827.54-0.14-0.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.350.1250.0066.220.000.04
Green BayHorz0.280.1256.2554.840.040.01
HofstraCAA0.240.1244.4445.47-0.03-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.180.1258.8257.870.030.02
WyomingMWC0.000.1162.5055.530.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1050.0048.000.00-0.00
IowaB100.280.0957.8950.960.040.00
Wright St.Horz0.200.0958.8254.990.040.01
CaliforniaP120.090.0972.2266.070.040.03
Oregon St.P120.090.0917.6515.00-0.06-0.06
Texas TechB120.190.0976.4763.780.100.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.190.0950.0046.720.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.180.0953.8558.520.010.02
UCLAP120.100.0994.7489.330.090.07
UMKCWAC0.240.0938.8940.01-0.05-0.02
XavierBE0.190.0972.2267.490.080.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0962.5054.170.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.150.0937.5036.25-0.04-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.150.0950.0051.780.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0962.5068.360.020.03
North TexasCUSA0.180.0926.6732.20-0.08-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.170.0943.7543.54-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.170.0961.1162.130.040.02
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0933.3337.37-0.03-0.02
DelawareCAA0.090.0929.4127.56-0.04-0.04
OaklandHorz0.000.0970.5972.850.000.04
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0977.7877.110.000.05
William & MaryCAA0.100.0942.8647.10-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0950.0049.550.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.110.0755.5660.550.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0733.3333.47-0.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0630.7736.76-0.00-0.02
PacificWCC0.000.0638.8934.94-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.0660.0061.150.020.01
ButlerBE0.200.0684.2178.360.130.04
Boise St.MWC0.100.0666.6766.780.030.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.0640.0046.16-0.02-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0633.3333.23-0.03-0.02
LamarSlnd0.100.0650.0049.650.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.100.0655.5654.690.010.01
NJITASun0.100.0641.1845.41-0.02-0.01
WisconsinB100.100.0682.3581.030.060.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.0622.2225.46-0.05-0.03
HawaiiBW0.180.0640.0044.09-0.04-0.01
Kansas St.B120.170.0676.4759.430.090.01
PittsburghACC0.170.0666.6753.190.060.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.190.0635.7148.96-0.05-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0664.7165.930.030.02
BryantNEC0.090.0622.2235.43-0.05-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0643.7543.63-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.150.0625.0025.29-0.08-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0612.5020.01-0.00-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.0662.5060.080.020.01
Georgia St.SB0.090.0653.3355.860.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.150.06100.0096.910.150.06
HoustonAmer0.150.0672.2271.210.070.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0625.0028.48-0.05-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0631.2539.84-0.03-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0637.5044.66-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.180.0646.1551.22-0.010.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.060.0014.42-0.09-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0660.0072.720.020.03
NorthwesternB100.090.0678.9569.120.050.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0620.0019.52-0.00-0.04
TexasB120.090.0641.1835.95-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0653.3345.920.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.100.0650.0051.640.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0668.7570.370.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0640.0034.51-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0628.5731.64-0.04-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.180.0664.7161.460.050.01
OhioMAC0.090.0671.4369.670.040.02
UMBCAE0.170.0662.5058.760.040.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0650.0045.100.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0618.7523.85-0.00-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0627.7834.27-0.04-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0677.7870.850.050.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0617.6524.27-0.00-0.03
DrexelCAA0.080.0635.2935.38-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.080.0647.0649.68-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.080.0666.6763.320.030.02
TowsonCAA0.080.0650.0052.220.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0688.2484.300.000.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0633.3330.18-0.03-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0658.8252.810.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0666.6750.950.000.00
North FloridaASun0.110.0318.7530.20-0.07-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.110.0331.2537.15-0.04-0.01
BucknellPat0.100.0368.4271.170.040.01
Colorado St.MWC0.100.0356.2553.650.010.00
OklahomaB120.100.0343.7536.61-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.0342.1142.66-0.02-0.00
Iowa St.B120.080.0364.7161.910.020.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.0317.6535.25-0.06-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0314.2927.63-0.06-0.01
AkronMAC0.100.0381.2573.540.060.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.0317.6524.63-0.06-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0312.5024.44-0.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.090.0337.5038.15-0.02-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.100.0316.6718.41-0.07-0.02
CreightonBE0.090.0394.4484.740.080.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0312.5021.96-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0321.4327.27-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0362.5057.280.020.00
HamptonMEAC0.090.0326.6740.15-0.04-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0330.7743.59-0.04-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0312.5028.47-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.100.0364.7154.360.030.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0323.0831.01-0.05-0.01
IndianaB100.090.0366.6763.930.030.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0355.5660.010.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0312.5033.74-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0323.0831.10-0.05-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0382.3582.770.060.02
MinnesotaB100.090.0378.9570.150.050.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0335.7136.22-0.03-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0318.7535.75-0.05-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0325.0033.65-0.05-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0329.4125.22-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0325.0031.95-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.090.0378.9576.690.050.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0343.7541.36-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0314.2929.37-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.100.0364.7161.890.030.01
St. John'sBE0.090.0345.0038.60-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.0327.7829.47-0.04-0.01
TroySB0.000.0347.0648.10-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.090.0358.8263.660.020.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0343.7538.32-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0347.3745.21-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0318.7528.06-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.090.0373.3373.100.040.01
DePaulBE0.090.0342.1130.46-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0375.0076.810.040.02
George MasonA100.080.0364.7156.530.020.00
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0356.2553.440.010.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0355.5653.980.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.080.0326.6725.63-0.04-0.01
MemphisAmer0.090.0372.2264.140.040.01
RichmondA100.080.0364.7158.460.020.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0347.0640.37-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0362.5065.700.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.090.0350.0058.430.000.00