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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Montana St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:325.0
Current RPI:325
Expected SOS:232
Current SOS:232
Current Record:6-23
Expected Record:6-23
Current Conf Record:4-14
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-11
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:268
Expected OOC SOS:56



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-23325.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Montana St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UCLA (48.0)P12A113-78L0%0.0
11-17Grand Canyon (274.0)WACA61-45L0%0.0
11-19Cal St. Northridge (282.0)BWA72-65L0%0.0
11-23Kentucky (1.0)SECA86-28L0%0.0
11-28UT Arlington (184.0)SBH104-81W100%0.0
11-30North Dakota St. (92.0)SumH51-72L0%0.0
12-6Utah Valley (308.0)WACH68-60W100%0.0
12-14Wyoming (71.0)MWCA70-61L0%0.0
12-18South Dakota (213.0)SumA55-53L0%0.0
12-20Portland (149.0)WCCA87-60L0%0.0
12-23Wyoming (71.0)MWCH51-61L0%0.0
1-1North Dakota (310.0)BSkyH60-67L0%0.0
1-3Northern Colorado (245.0)BSkyH54-62L0%0.0
1-8Idaho St. (343.0)BSkyA70-61L0%0.0
1-10Weber St. (263.0)BSkyA65-62L0%0.0
1-17Montana (144.0)BSkyA63-48L0%0.0
1-22Southern Utah (307.0)BSkyH79-65W100%0.0
1-24Northern Arizona (166.0)BSkyH64-71L0%0.0
1-29Sacramento St. (141.0)BSkyA75-59L0%0.0
1-31Portland St. (225.0)BSkyA80-62L0%0.0
2-5Idaho (267.0)BSkyH71-80L0%0.0
2-7Eastern Washington (74.0)BSkyH51-61L0%0.0
2-12Northern Colorado (245.0)BSkyA87-90W100%0.0
2-14North Dakota (310.0)BSkyA78-80W100%0.0
2-19Weber St. (263.0)BSkyH71-74L0%0.0
2-21Idaho St. (343.0)BSkyH67-53W100%0.0
2-26Eastern Washington (74.0)BSkyA92-68L0%0.0
2-28Idaho (267.0)BSkyA80-73L0%0.0
3-7Montana (144.0)BSkyH54-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Montana St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Montana St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Montana St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Montana St.BSky26.3226.3219.8519.85-15.87-15.87
MontanaBSky4.504.5057.1457.140.640.64
Eastern WashingtonBSky4.424.4272.4172.411.981.98
Weber St.BSky4.344.3434.6234.62-1.33-1.33
Idaho St.BSky4.314.3115.3815.38-2.99-2.99
IdahoBSky4.284.2834.6234.62-1.32-1.32
Northern ColoradoBSky4.254.2546.1546.15-0.33-0.33
North DakotaBSky4.194.1919.2319.23-2.58-2.58
WyomingMWC3.513.5170.0070.001.401.40
Sacramento St.BSky2.742.7460.7160.710.590.59
Northern ArizonaBSky2.702.7054.8454.840.260.26
Portland St.BSky2.652.6546.1546.15-0.20-0.20
Southern UtahBSky2.602.6033.3333.33-0.87-0.87
Utah ValleyWAC2.142.1433.3333.33-0.71-0.71
Grand CanyonWAC1.901.9050.0050.000.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum1.901.9068.9768.970.720.72
South DakotaSum1.901.9046.6746.67-0.13-0.13
UT ArlingtonSB1.841.8451.7251.720.060.06
KentuckySEC1.811.81100.00100.001.811.81
PortlandWCC1.791.7948.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.781.7820.0020.00-1.07-1.07
UCLAP121.751.7559.3859.380.330.33
South Dakota St.Sum0.420.4267.7467.740.150.15
Utah St.MWC0.320.3256.6756.670.040.04
SeattleWAC0.290.2948.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.270.2736.6736.67-0.07-0.07
Boise St.MWC0.260.2674.1974.190.120.12
DenverSum0.260.2640.0040.00-0.05-0.05
UC DavisBW0.240.2479.3179.310.140.14
New Mexico St.WAC0.240.2467.7467.740.080.08
Nebraska OmahaSum0.240.2439.2939.29-0.05-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.230.2381.2581.250.140.14
CaliforniaP120.220.2254.5554.550.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.200.2041.9441.94-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.200.2048.3948.39-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.200.2053.1253.120.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.190.1975.7675.760.100.10
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.180.1825.0025.00-0.09-0.09
Northern KentuckyASun0.180.1839.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.170.1723.0823.08-0.09-0.09
UC RiversideBW0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.170.1724.1424.14-0.09-0.09
ColoradoP120.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.150.1571.8871.880.060.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.156.906.90-0.13-0.13
IPFWSum0.140.1448.1548.15-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.140.140.000.00-0.14-0.14
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.120.1217.2417.24-0.08-0.08
UMKCWAC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
UC IrvineBW0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
UtahP120.110.1174.1974.190.060.06
GonzagaWCC0.110.1193.9493.940.100.10
Saint Mary'sWCC0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
IUPUISum0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
OregonP120.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
ArizonaP120.110.1191.1891.180.090.09
USCP120.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.110.1181.2581.250.070.07
DrakeMVC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
LSUSEC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
Texas St.SB0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.05-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
San DiegoWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0872.4172.410.040.04
TexasB120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Oregon St.P120.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0662.9662.960.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0690.9190.910.050.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0374.0774.070.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
WoffordSC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00