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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Montana St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:252.0
Current RPI:264
Expected SOS:311
Current SOS:313
Current Record:10-13
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:6-6
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-6
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:195
Expected OOC SOS:190



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13200.70.43%
15-14215.86.01%
14-15233.823.58%
13-16252.839.09%
12-17269.925.11%
11-18284.65.44%
10-19297.30.33%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Montana St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Hawaii (81.4)BWA87-76L0%0.0
11-15Nevada (130.7)MWCN83-62L0%0.0
11-20San Jose St. (292.6)MWCH81-69W100%0.0
11-22Wyoming (178.9)MWCN83-82W100%0.0
11-28Wyoming (178.9)MWCA82-68L0%0.0
12-1Utah Valley (260.1)WACA72-76W100%0.0
12-6Nebraska Omaha (124.9)SumH97-100L0%0.0
12-13San Jose St. (292.6)MWCA83-91W100%0.0
12-16North Dakota St. (124.2)SumA73-64L0%0.0
12-19Buffalo (91.4)MACA80-73L0%0.0
12-22Syracuse (45.9)ACCA82-60L0%0.0
12-31Southern Utah (335.8)BSkyA93-82L0%0.0
1-2Northern Arizona (325.6)BSkyA72-74W100%0.0
1-7Sacramento St. (255.0)BSkyH71-64W100%0.0
1-9Portland St. (289.0)BSkyH70-77L0%0.0
1-14North Dakota (219.7)BSkyA85-68L0%0.0
1-16Northern Colorado (310.7)BSkyA78-76L0%0.0
1-21Eastern Washington (201.4)BSkyH85-71W100%0.0
1-23Idaho (222.5)BSkyH70-68W100%0.0
1-30Montana (145.3)BSkyH72-80L0%0.0
2-4Portland St. (289.0)BSkyA83-68L0%0.0
2-6Sacramento St. (255.0)BSkyA76-79W100%0.0
2-11Northern Arizona (325.6)BSkyH101-58W100%0.0
2-13Southern Utah (335.8)BSkyH0-090%14.2
2-20Montana (145.3)BSkyA0-021%-8.9
2-25Weber St. (139.2)BSkyA0-014%-11.8
2-27Idaho St. (266.1)BSkyA0-043%-1.9
3-3Northern Colorado (310.7)BSkyH0-080%9.2
3-5North Dakota (219.7)BSkyH0-052%0.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Montana St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Montana St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Montana St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Montana St.BSky26.6926.4847.5248.01-1.32-1.05
MontanaBSky3.174.4357.8960.450.500.93
Northern ColoradoBSky2.634.2423.8123.87-1.38-2.22
Southern UtahBSky2.734.2410.0011.73-2.19-3.25
Portland St.BSky4.824.2422.2230.80-2.68-1.63
North DakotaBSky2.634.2342.1145.99-0.41-0.34
Northern ArizonaBSky4.754.2110.5313.06-3.75-3.11
Sacramento St.BSky4.774.2144.4448.82-0.53-0.10
San Jose St.MWC4.543.6926.3224.69-2.15-1.87
WyomingMWC4.603.6742.8641.99-0.66-0.59
IdahoBSky3.062.7459.0957.310.560.40
Idaho St.BSky0.792.7447.6247.71-0.04-0.13
Weber St.BSky0.742.7166.6769.140.251.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.962.6857.1457.610.420.41
NevadaMWC2.532.0055.0053.700.250.15
North Dakota St.Sum2.331.9559.0958.340.420.33
Nebraska OmahaSum2.371.9156.5257.050.310.27
Utah ValleyWAC2.231.8535.0036.35-0.67-0.50
HawaiiBW2.231.7584.2182.801.521.15
BuffaloMAC2.171.7254.5555.580.200.19
SyracuseACC2.171.7266.6762.890.720.44
Boise St.MWC0.410.4460.8760.440.090.09
Utah St.MWC0.350.3747.6249.28-0.02-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.400.3754.5552.530.040.02
DenverSum0.380.3752.0049.300.02-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.450.3166.6767.670.150.11
Air ForceMWC0.500.3143.4837.80-0.07-0.08
Fresno St.MWC0.350.3163.6461.550.100.07
UNLVMWC0.300.3152.1755.070.010.03
UC DavisBW0.420.2938.1035.34-0.10-0.08
San Diego St.MWC0.250.2869.5770.090.100.11
SeattleWAC0.360.2647.6245.02-0.02-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.250.2558.3360.710.040.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.270.2233.3330.63-0.09-0.09
South DakotaSum0.340.2244.0043.56-0.04-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.260.1914.2915.44-0.19-0.13
PortlandWCC0.220.1938.4638.04-0.05-0.05
Washington St.P120.260.1934.7831.64-0.08-0.07
IUPUISum0.140.1938.4638.50-0.03-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1873.9174.640.070.09
Grand CanyonWAC0.210.1682.6181.130.130.10
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.1631.8230.08-0.04-0.06
GonzagaWCC0.160.1379.1777.510.090.07
KansasB120.100.1382.6179.200.070.07
New Mexico St.WAC0.200.1365.2268.600.060.05
PacificWCC0.210.1323.8125.99-0.11-0.06
UC RiversideBW0.100.1345.8341.63-0.01-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.1250.0045.770.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.140.1270.8368.660.060.05
Oral RobertsSum0.140.1241.6742.39-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.140.1231.5832.04-0.05-0.04
ToledoMAC0.200.1260.8762.080.040.03
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1056.0055.450.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.100.1052.1749.150.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.100.1028.5732.75-0.04-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1081.8281.780.070.06
UTSACUSA0.100.1013.0412.96-0.08-0.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.160.0933.3332.04-0.05-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.150.0945.4551.69-0.010.00
UtahP120.050.0970.8368.520.020.04
WisconsinB100.100.0962.5057.000.020.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.150.0986.3684.220.110.06
ColoradoP120.090.0970.8365.580.040.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.0943.4843.77-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.140.0961.9065.330.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.140.0940.0043.39-0.03-0.01
PittsburghACC0.090.0972.7367.600.040.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0712.0011.95-0.04-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.050.074.357.72-0.05-0.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0750.0052.870.000.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0758.3356.290.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0758.3360.900.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0762.5060.140.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0730.4332.26-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.050.0668.0070.260.020.03
ArizonaP120.100.0679.1778.290.060.04
Arizona St.P120.110.0654.1751.700.010.00
ButlerBE0.050.0670.8369.000.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.110.0628.5734.11-0.05-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0650.0049.320.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.100.0659.0961.280.020.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.110.0652.9452.100.010.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0647.8351.92-0.000.00
MarquetteBE0.100.0664.0057.890.030.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.0643.4850.64-0.010.00
San DiegoWCC0.100.0630.4328.20-0.04-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.0616.6719.49-0.07-0.04
StanfordP120.110.0647.6244.06-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.100.0666.6764.700.030.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0669.5770.020.020.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.110.0657.1457.670.020.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0640.0042.85-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0620.8323.28-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0624.0024.16-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.050.0623.0825.87-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.050.0679.1775.990.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0647.6249.39-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.090.0670.8367.970.040.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0629.1733.11-0.04-0.02
CaliforniaP120.090.0666.6764.780.030.02
HoustonAmer0.090.0670.8367.980.040.02
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0650.0049.480.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.090.0650.0051.110.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0660.0057.650.020.01
AkronMAC0.050.0682.6181.140.030.04
Kent St.MAC0.050.0665.2260.600.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0634.7833.02-0.01-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0663.6461.470.000.01
DukeACC0.090.0675.0071.840.050.02
St. BonaventureA100.090.0672.7370.410.040.02
Boston CollegeACC0.040.0629.1726.69-0.02-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.040.0666.6763.300.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.040.0683.3378.380.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0377.2773.930.030.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0324.0025.68-0.03-0.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0339.1335.45-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0336.3638.97-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0320.0022.25-0.03-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0318.1821.11-0.03-0.02
OklahomaB120.050.0386.9682.620.040.02
Texas TechB120.050.0360.8755.310.010.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0340.9138.82-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0361.9058.170.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0339.1341.05-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0345.8344.07-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0330.0029.13-0.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0325.0027.26-0.02-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0333.3330.28-0.02-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0347.8350.89-0.000.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0363.6458.760.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0330.0031.76-0.02-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0331.8234.54-0.02-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0373.9176.700.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0331.8232.46-0.02-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0340.0041.68-0.01-0.00
TroySB0.050.0322.7324.38-0.03-0.02
USCP120.050.0378.2673.130.030.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0360.8757.130.010.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.0324.0026.44-0.02-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0342.3144.53-0.01-0.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0325.0024.93-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0358.3363.180.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0383.3381.280.030.02
VCUA100.050.0370.8371.050.020.01
VermontAE0.050.0352.0054.860.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0331.8232.68-0.02-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.040.0337.5042.32-0.01-0.00
ClemsonACC0.040.0358.3358.400.010.00
ColgatePat0.040.0343.4844.90-0.01-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0370.8370.130.020.01
CornellIvy0.040.0342.1140.24-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.040.0350.0050.070.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.040.0356.0052.870.010.00
Georgia TechACC0.040.0354.1752.000.000.00
LehighPat0.040.0339.1342.83-0.01-0.00
Miami FLACC0.040.0382.6177.580.030.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0350.0048.950.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.040.0370.8367.930.020.01
St. John'sBE0.040.0325.0023.45-0.02-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0375.0075.340.020.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.040.0345.4554.18-0.000.00
VirginiaACC0.040.0383.3378.460.030.02
Virginia TechACC0.040.0352.0048.920.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.040.0341.6739.90-0.01-0.01