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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Montana St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:253.0
Current RPI:253
Expected SOS:303
Current SOS:303
Current Record:14-16
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-6
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:307
Expected OOC SOS:226



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-16253.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Montana St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Washington St. (159.0)P12A69-65L0%0.0
11-14Louisiana Lafayette (114.0)SBH84-83W100%0.0
11-18James Madison (255.0)CAAH80-73W100%0.0
11-21Rice (167.0)CUSAA83-78L0%0.0
11-26Delaware St. (332.0)MEACH91-66W100%0.0
12-1Utah (83.0)P12A92-84L0%0.0
12-5Milwaukee (256.0)HorzH78-83L0%0.0
12-7South Dakota (123.0)SumA74-57L0%0.0
12-10Nebraska Omaha (132.0)SumA97-91L0%0.0
12-18South Dakota (123.0)SumH68-80L0%0.0
12-21Central Michigan (216.0)MACH103-106L0%0.0
12-29Weber St. (185.0)BSkyH75-87L0%0.0
12-31Idaho St. (340.0)BSkyH80-63W100%0.0
1-5Eastern Washington (148.0)BSkyA82-64L0%0.0
1-7Idaho (209.0)BSkyA83-81L0%0.0
1-12North Dakota (144.0)BSkyH85-90L0%0.0
1-14Northern Colorado (286.0)BSkyH68-53W100%0.0
1-19Sacramento St. (293.0)BSkyA65-74W100%0.0
1-21Portland St. (268.0)BSkyA65-71W100%0.0
1-26Idaho (209.0)BSkyH94-91W100%0.0
1-28Eastern Washington (148.0)BSkyH91-90W100%0.0
2-4Montana (221.0)BSkyA90-84L0%0.0
2-9Northern Arizona (335.0)BSkyA69-63L0%0.0
2-11Southern Utah (341.0)BSkyA78-83W100%0.0
2-16Portland St. (268.0)BSkyH92-90W100%0.0
2-18Sacramento St. (293.0)BSkyH62-59W100%0.0
2-25Montana (221.0)BSkyH78-69W100%0.0
3-2Idaho St. (340.0)BSkyA68-79W100%0.0
3-4Weber St. (185.0)BSkyA76-67L0%0.0
3-7Southern Utah (341.0)BSkyN105-109L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Montana St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Montana St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Montana St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Montana St.BSky26.3326.3345.3145.31-2.47-2.47
MontanaBSky4.324.3250.0050.000.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky4.254.2540.7440.74-0.79-0.79
Weber St.BSky4.234.2353.5753.570.300.30
Eastern WashingtonBSky4.234.2365.5265.521.311.31
IdahoBSky4.224.2255.5655.560.470.47
Southern UtahBSky4.184.1810.3410.34-3.32-3.32
Idaho St.BSky4.154.1514.2914.29-2.96-2.96
Portland St.BSky4.114.1146.1546.15-0.32-0.32
South DakotaSum3.503.5062.0762.070.840.84
North DakotaBSky2.682.6866.6766.670.890.89
Northern ArizonaBSky2.572.5723.3323.33-1.37-1.37
Northern ColoradoBSky2.512.5134.6234.62-0.77-0.77
Washington St.P121.891.8937.9337.93-0.46-0.46
Nebraska OmahaSum1.801.8053.3353.330.120.12
RiceCUSA1.751.7563.3363.330.470.47
UtahP121.721.7260.7160.710.370.37
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.721.7263.3363.330.460.46
Delaware St.MEAC1.721.7227.5927.59-0.77-0.77
James MadisonCAA1.721.7229.0329.03-0.72-0.72
MilwaukeeHorz1.721.7227.2727.27-0.78-0.78
Central MichiganMAC1.671.6744.8344.83-0.17-0.17
South Dakota St.Sum0.380.3850.0050.000.000.00
DenverSum0.360.3653.3353.330.020.02
ColoradoP120.250.2556.2556.250.030.03
IUPUISum0.240.2440.0040.00-0.05-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.240.2423.0823.08-0.13-0.13
PepperdineWCC0.220.2226.6726.67-0.10-0.10
North Dakota St.Sum0.220.2260.7160.710.050.05
Oral RobertsSum0.210.2121.4321.43-0.12-0.12
San FranciscoWCC0.200.2061.2961.290.050.05
StanfordP120.200.2043.3343.33-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.200.2062.5062.500.050.05
Little RockSB0.190.1943.3343.33-0.03-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.190.1942.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.190.1957.1457.140.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
USCP120.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
SeattleWAC0.160.1637.0437.04-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
OregonP120.140.1484.8584.850.100.10
Northern KentuckyHorz0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
ValparaisoHorz0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.1267.8667.860.040.04
ArizonaP120.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
CaliforniaP120.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.110.1122.2222.22-0.06-0.06
NebraskaB100.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
BYUWCC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
HofstraCAA0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
WyomingMWC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
OaklandHorz0.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Oregon St.P120.090.0912.9012.90-0.06-0.06
IowaB100.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
UCLAP120.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
DrexelCAA0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
IonaMAAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
NJITASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.063.333.33-0.05-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
ToledoMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
UMBCAE0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.050.05
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
DePaulBE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00