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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Montana St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:275.0
Current RPI:275
Expected SOS:314
Current SOS:314
Current Record:12-17
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-10
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:291
Expected OOC SOS:319



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-17275.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Montana St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWH55-84L0%0.0
11-16UC Riverside (319.0)BWA72-67L0%0.0
11-21Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWN73-74L0%0.0
11-22Central Michigan (294.0)MACA54-59W100%0.0
11-23Austin Peay (305.0)OVCN78-72L0%0.0
11-26Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWH77-62W100%0.0
11-30Wyoming (135.0)MWCA79-54L0%0.0
12-15Portland (178.0)WCCA69-72W100%0.0
12-23UTEP (103.0)CUSAA70-55L0%0.0
1-2Sacramento St. (263.0)BSkyH70-55W100%0.0
1-4Northern Arizona (247.0)BSkyH68-66W100%0.0
1-9Portland St. (252.0)BSkyA76-79W100%0.0
1-11Eastern Washington (228.0)BSkyA77-72L0%0.0
1-16Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyH70-55W100%0.0
1-18North Dakota (197.0)BSkyH69-72L0%0.0
1-23Weber St. (149.0)BSkyA86-57L0%0.0
1-25Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyA69-64L0%0.0
2-1Southern Utah (346.0)BSkyA52-54W100%0.0
2-3Montana (183.0)BSkyH66-70L0%0.0
2-6Eastern Washington (228.0)BSkyH50-79L0%0.0
2-8Portland St. (252.0)BSkyH69-64W100%0.0
2-13North Dakota (197.0)BSkyA70-78W100%0.0
2-15Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyA83-73L0%0.0
2-20Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyH66-60W100%0.0
2-22Weber St. (149.0)BSkyH68-86L0%0.0
2-27Southern Utah (346.0)BSkyH77-72W100%0.0
3-3Montana (183.0)BSkyA53-50L0%0.0
3-6Northern Arizona (247.0)BSkyA61-48L0%0.0
3-8Sacramento St. (263.0)BSkyA84-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Montana St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Montana St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Montana St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Montana St.BSky26.5126.5142.7542.75-3.84-3.84
North DakotaBSky4.724.7248.2848.28-0.16-0.16
Northern ColoradoBSky4.704.7055.5655.560.520.52
Portland St.BSky4.674.6755.5655.560.520.52
Sacramento St.BSky4.674.6742.3142.31-0.72-0.72
Weber St.BSky4.644.6457.6957.690.710.71
Southern UtahBSky4.634.633.853.85-4.28-4.28
Northern ArizonaBSky4.604.6044.8344.83-0.48-0.48
MontanaBSky4.584.5850.0050.000.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky4.534.5340.7440.74-0.84-0.84
Idaho St.BSky4.524.5232.0032.00-1.63-1.63
Cal St. NorthridgeBW3.693.6945.1645.16-0.36-0.36
UC RiversideBW2.072.0725.0025.00-1.03-1.03
Cal St. FullertonBW1.951.9533.3333.33-0.65-0.65
PortlandWCC1.851.8550.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC1.811.8128.5728.57-0.77-0.77
Austin PeayOVC1.811.8133.3333.33-0.60-0.60
UTEPCUSA1.791.7966.6766.670.600.60
WyomingMWC1.781.7851.7251.720.060.06
UC IrvineBW0.430.4365.6265.620.130.13
HawaiiBW0.390.3962.0762.070.090.09
IdahoWAC0.380.3845.4545.45-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.370.3724.1424.14-0.19-0.19
Cal PolyBW0.330.3336.6736.67-0.09-0.09
Long Beach St.BW0.300.3043.3343.33-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.240.2438.7138.71-0.06-0.06
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.220.2267.8667.860.080.08
Colorado St.MWC0.210.2146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.210.2160.6160.610.040.04
SeattleWAC0.200.2039.2939.29-0.04-0.04
WashingtonP120.180.1853.1253.120.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.180.1863.3363.330.050.05
Utah St.MWC0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.170.1717.2417.24-0.11-0.11
Loyola MarymountWCC0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
PepperdineWCC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
USCP120.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
UCLAP120.120.1276.4776.470.070.07
San Diego St.MWC0.120.1287.1087.100.090.09
BYUWCC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
San DiegoWCC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.1273.5373.530.050.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
PacificWCC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.110.1122.2222.22-0.06-0.06
South DakotaSum0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.090.0935.7135.71-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Arizona St.P120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
UtahP120.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
CaliforniaP120.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
ToledoMAC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
BradleyMVC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
DenverSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP120.060.0688.2488.240.040.04
ButlerBE0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0678.5778.570.030.03
OregonP120.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.030.03
Texas TechB120.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
WisconsinB100.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0593.1093.100.050.05
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
KansasB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01