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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


Montana St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:220.4
Current RPI:205
Expected SOS:260
Current SOS:279
Current Record:9-9
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:4-3
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:205
Expected OOC SOS:266



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-10129.00.06%
18-11147.50.41%
17-12166.02.96%
16-13184.08.94%
15-14201.919.19%
14-15218.426.82%
13-16233.923.36%
12-17249.213.04%
11-18264.24.39%
10-19277.80.73%
9-20291.80.09%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Montana St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Nebraska Omaha (249.9)SumH89-80W100%0.0
11-13Utah St. (167.8)MWCA81-73L0%0.0
11-18Louisiana Tech (159.8)CUSAA71-58L0%0.0
11-21Binghamton (282.6)AEN64-74W100%0.0
11-22Southeast Missouri St. (242.9)OVCN82-88W100%0.0
11-26Fresno St. (103.2)MWCA80-67L0%0.0
12-2Milwaukee (242.3)HorzA64-68W100%0.0
12-5Central Michigan (146.9)MACA75-48L0%0.0
12-9UC Santa Barbara (107.8)BWH69-91L0%0.0
12-18Denver (272.4)SumH79-65W100%0.0
12-21Nebraska Omaha (249.9)SumA84-71L0%0.0
12-28Southern Utah (264.7)BSkyA99-104W100%0.0
12-30Northern Arizona (316.2)BSkyA73-76W100%0.0
1-4Northern Colorado (145.3)BSkyH76-64W100%0.0
1-6North Dakota (213.8)BSkyH79-68W100%0.0
1-11Portland St. (122.1)BSkyA93-74L0%0.0
1-13Sacramento St. (279.9)BSkyA87-68L0%0.0
1-20Montana (98.2)BSkyH52-67L0%0.0
1-25Northern Arizona (316.2)BSkyH0-081%9.8
1-27Southern Utah (264.7)BSkyH0-073%6.9
2-1North Dakota (213.8)BSkyA0-037%-3.7
2-3Northern Colorado (145.3)BSkyA0-024%-7.7
2-8Sacramento St. (279.9)BSkyH0-068%5.1
2-10Portland St. (122.1)BSkyH0-036%-3.9
2-15Idaho (146.3)BSkyA0-017%-10.7
2-17Eastern Washington (191.2)BSkyA0-025%-7.5
2-24Montana (98.2)BSkyA0-011%-13.4
3-1Idaho St. (263.5)BSkyH0-066%4.7
3-3Weber St. (182.4)BSkyH0-042%-2.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Montana St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Montana St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Montana St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Montana St.BSky26.5326.3855.1349.672.72-0.17
MontanaBSky3.354.3468.7571.531.251.87
Northern ColoradoBSky3.024.2262.5058.620.750.73
Sacramento St.BSky3.024.2211.7621.36-2.31-2.42
Portland St.BSky3.014.2156.2561.780.380.99
Southern UtahBSky3.024.2140.0035.40-0.60-1.23
Northern ArizonaBSky2.954.1911.7615.73-2.25-2.87
North DakotaBSky2.944.1931.2535.03-1.10-1.25
Nebraska OmahaSum5.713.5522.2226.33-3.17-1.68
Weber St.BSky0.632.7056.2557.420.080.40
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.492.6538.8945.02-0.11-0.26
Idaho St.BSky0.492.6543.7541.19-0.06-0.47
IdahoBSky0.492.6464.7166.250.140.86
DenverSum3.001.9135.2937.93-0.88-0.46
UC Santa BarbaraBW3.081.9168.7568.511.150.71
Utah St.MWC2.941.8842.1143.59-0.46-0.24
Fresno St.MWC2.851.8164.7162.090.840.44
Central MichiganMAC2.861.7960.0057.180.570.26
Louisiana TechCUSA2.851.7550.0053.680.000.13
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.851.7544.4445.05-0.32-0.17
BinghamtonAE2.781.7244.4441.36-0.31-0.30
MilwaukeeHorz2.781.7247.3748.74-0.15-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.380.3717.6519.29-0.25-0.23
North Dakota St.Sum0.320.3444.4450.31-0.040.00
South DakotaSum0.370.3473.6872.400.180.15
UC IrvineBW0.390.2830.0039.95-0.15-0.06
UNLVMWC0.240.2773.6865.250.110.08
Oral RobertsSum0.300.2530.0032.54-0.12-0.09
South Dakota St.Sum0.300.2572.2272.970.130.12
UC DavisBW0.240.2458.8262.450.040.06
WyomingMWC0.230.2461.1156.790.050.03
Fort WayneSum0.290.2252.6351.680.020.01
Western IllinoisSum0.210.2242.8635.22-0.03-0.06
San Jose St.MWC0.230.2211.7612.80-0.18-0.16
Boise St.MWC0.310.2178.9576.980.180.11
PepperdineWCC0.250.1910.5318.34-0.20-0.12
StanfordP120.240.1955.0050.330.020.00
UC RiversideBW0.250.1817.6523.84-0.16-0.10
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.240.1829.4133.20-0.10-0.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.220.1821.0523.52-0.13-0.10
New MexicoMWC0.220.1845.0048.57-0.02-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.160.1640.0043.34-0.03-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.250.1523.5328.20-0.13-0.07
WashingtonP120.220.1570.0061.460.090.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.160.1533.3332.96-0.05-0.05
NevadaMWC0.150.1585.7182.120.100.10
Colorado St.MWC0.220.1545.0041.31-0.02-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.220.1558.8262.830.040.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.1366.6766.030.030.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.160.1233.3339.89-0.05-0.03
DrakeMVC0.280.1255.0048.980.03-0.00
HawaiiBW0.160.1268.7564.010.060.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.300.1238.8943.36-0.07-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.230.1257.8953.220.040.01
Western MichiganMAC0.070.1252.9452.250.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.150.1237.5031.78-0.04-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.160.1256.2556.820.020.02
PortlandWCC0.160.1227.7827.26-0.07-0.06
Southern MissCUSA0.080.1241.1838.47-0.01-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.300.1252.6347.500.02-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.160.1250.0048.730.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.160.0960.0053.720.030.01
BYUWCC0.070.0980.9576.240.040.05
OregonP120.160.0965.0063.810.050.03
PittsburghACC0.160.0940.0030.88-0.03-0.04
Arizona St.P120.080.0978.9576.160.040.05
Georgia St.SB0.080.0966.6765.550.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0941.1839.14-0.01-0.02
Penn St.B100.150.0961.9055.820.040.01
GonzagaWCC0.150.0980.9583.260.090.06
George MasonA100.220.0945.0041.29-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.160.0963.1657.530.040.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.160.0936.8432.75-0.04-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0931.5832.71-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.150.0933.3333.76-0.05-0.03
Kansas St.B120.150.0975.0065.320.080.03
New HampshireAE0.140.0933.3340.10-0.05-0.02
IowaB100.090.0647.6243.94-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.090.0685.7183.760.060.04
Oregon St.P120.090.0657.8950.860.010.00
Washington St.P120.000.0647.3741.430.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.070.0665.0057.890.020.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0657.8954.500.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.140.0627.7831.08-0.06-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.090.0661.1158.710.020.01
ButlerBE0.080.0666.6763.070.030.02
CaliforniaP120.080.0636.8431.11-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.080.0675.0070.720.040.03
DukeACC0.080.0689.4785.240.060.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0646.6747.00-0.01-0.00
KansasB120.140.0684.2179.760.100.04
Kent St.MAC0.090.0644.4444.91-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.140.0678.9569.820.080.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0627.7829.10-0.04-0.03
NebraskaB100.080.0663.6459.480.020.01
OhioMAC0.090.0647.0648.43-0.01-0.00
OklahomaB120.140.0677.7868.030.080.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0643.7549.11-0.01-0.00
TCUB120.140.0675.0067.830.070.02
ToledoMAC0.090.0666.6767.670.030.02
TroySB0.080.0638.8944.43-0.02-0.01
UMKCWAC0.160.0621.0524.76-0.09-0.03
AlbanyAE0.070.0671.4370.250.030.02
ArizonaP120.080.0680.0078.940.050.03
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0644.4446.01-0.01-0.00
BelmontOVC0.140.0671.4374.670.060.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0620.0023.33-0.04-0.03
DetroitHorz0.070.0621.0525.99-0.04-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0629.4133.93-0.03-0.02
FIUCUSA0.070.0635.2935.54-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.070.0625.0027.93-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.080.0625.0043.18-0.04-0.01
HartfordAE0.070.0650.0045.930.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0642.1145.98-0.01-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.070.0627.7829.82-0.03-0.02
MaineAE0.070.0610.5314.83-0.06-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0672.2274.730.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0623.5328.71-0.04-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.070.0670.5975.960.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.150.0647.0654.68-0.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0666.6773.220.020.03
OaklandHorz0.070.0661.9065.150.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0650.0051.640.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0690.4888.970.060.05
South FloridaAmer0.080.0635.0026.13-0.02-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.070.0636.8445.19-0.02-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0626.3231.480.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.070.0661.1164.150.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.070.0633.3333.87-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.0655.5655.550.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.070.0633.3334.10-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.070.0641.1839.66-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0675.0077.870.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.070.0668.4269.260.030.02
UtahP120.070.0663.1659.720.020.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0357.8966.270.010.01
NavyPat0.080.0360.0055.160.020.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0333.3335.21-0.03-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.080.0311.1118.00-0.06-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0360.0064.130.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0325.0028.250.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0347.0644.920.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.080.0368.4264.160.030.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0358.8249.740.02-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0372.2274.940.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0347.0641.380.00-0.01
MichiganB100.090.0376.1970.800.050.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0350.0051.390.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0325.0039.91-0.04-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0368.4263.970.030.01
USCP120.080.0371.4368.300.040.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0368.4259.020.030.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0315.7922.64-0.05-0.02
ArmyPat0.070.0361.1160.440.020.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0323.5325.630.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.070.0350.0051.030.000.00
CornellIvy0.070.0333.3333.23-0.02-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.030.008.42-0.07-0.02
ElonCAA0.070.0352.6351.090.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0337.5037.670.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0357.8946.220.01-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0370.0068.210.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0340.0042.51-0.01-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0383.3381.420.050.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0378.9574.200.040.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0322.2228.66-0.04-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0368.4263.610.030.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0333.3340.35-0.02-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.070.0344.4446.66-0.01-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0378.9576.770.000.02
RiceCUSA0.070.0311.1117.68-0.06-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0330.0033.48-0.03-0.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0347.3746.93-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0355.0052.480.010.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0380.0078.870.040.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0335.2940.46-0.02-0.01
TexasB120.070.0365.0058.600.020.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0368.4270.820.030.01
WisconsinB100.070.0350.0046.270.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.030.0010.26-0.07-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.070.0363.1663.210.020.01
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0347.3748.77-0.00-0.00