Cal St. Fullerton

Conference:	BW
Expected RPI:	270.0
Current RPI:	270
Expected SOS:	305
Current SOS:	305
Current Record:	12-18
Expected Record:	12-18
Current Conf Record:	6-13
Expected Conf Record:	6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-7
Current OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC RPI:	215
Expected OOC SOS:	334

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-18	270.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Fullerton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Stanford (77.0)	P12	A	81-68	L	0%
11-16	Nevada (171.0)	MWC	A	80-77	L	0%
11-17	Southern Utah (314.0)	BSky	N	69-112	W	100%
11-18	Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)	Horz	N	93-82	W	100%
11-30	Eastern Washington (321.0)	BSky	A	79-75	L	0%
12-2	Washington (88.0)	P12	A	74-72	L	0%
12-6	Cal St. Bakersfield (235.0)	ind	H	70-72	L	0%
12-13	Idaho St. (337.0)	BSky	H	66-53	W	100%
12-16	Texas Southern (184.0)	SWAC	A	86-93	W	100%
12-29	UC Santa Barbara (244.0)	BW	H	86-79	W	100%
1-3	Hawaii (210.0)	BW	A	90-88	L	0%
1-5	Cal St. Northridge (254.0)	BW	A	86-105	W	100%
1-9	Cal St. Bakersfield (235.0)	ind	A	62-74	W	100%
1-12	UC Riverside (338.0)	BW	H	71-69	W	100%
1-17	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	H	65-92	L	0%
1-19	Long Beach St. (115.0)	BW	H	71-81	L	0%
1-24	UC Davis (234.0)	BW	A	88-95	W	100%
1-26	Pacific (97.0)	BW	A	71-67	L	0%
1-31	Cal St. Northridge (254.0)	BW	H	86-92	L	0%
2-2	Hawaii (210.0)	BW	H	75-77	L	0%
2-9	UC Riverside (338.0)	BW	A	67-79	W	100%
2-13	Long Beach St. (115.0)	BW	A	85-65	L	0%
2-16	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	A	86-66	L	0%
2-20	Cal Poly (164.0)	BW	H	77-60	W	100%
2-23	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (323.0)	Slnd	A	57-63	W	100%
2-28	Pacific (97.0)	BW	H	55-64	L	0%
3-2	UC Davis (234.0)	BW	H	68-71	L	0%
3-7	UC Santa Barbara (244.0)	BW	A	66-50	L	0%
3-9	Cal Poly (164.0)	BW	A	62-60	L	0%
3-14	Long Beach St. (115.0)	BW	N	75-66	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Fullerton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Cal St. Fullerton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Cal St. Fullerton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	26.51	26.51	43.24	43.24	-3.58	-3.58
Long Beach St.	BW	5.94	5.94	51.85	51.85	0.22	0.22
UC Irvine	BW	4.51	4.51	51.61	51.61	0.15	0.15
Pacific	BW	4.48	4.48	60.00	60.00	0.90	0.90
Cal Poly	BW	4.43	4.43	55.56	55.56	0.49	0.49
UC Davis	BW	4.42	4.42	44.83	44.83	-0.46	-0.46
Cal St. Northridge	BW	4.33	4.33	40.74	40.74	-0.80	-0.80
Hawaii	BW	4.33	4.33	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	4.32	4.32	29.63	29.63	-1.76	-1.76
UC Riverside	BW	4.27	4.27	15.38	15.38	-2.96	-2.96
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	3.33	3.33	37.50	37.50	-0.83	-0.83
Nevada	MWC	1.96	1.96	34.48	34.48	-0.61	-0.61
Eastern Washington	BSky	1.89	1.89	30.00	30.00	-0.76	-0.76
Southern Utah	BSky	1.89	1.89	32.14	32.14	-0.67	-0.67
Washington	P12	1.78	1.78	53.12	53.12	0.11	0.11
Idaho St.	BSky	1.78	1.78	17.86	17.86	-1.14	-1.14
Stanford	P12	1.75	1.75	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	1.72	1.72	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	1.67	1.67	18.52	18.52	-1.05	-1.05
Texas Southern	SWAC	1.67	1.67	56.67	56.67	0.22	0.22
Fresno St.	MWC	0.44	0.44	32.14	32.14	-0.16	-0.16
UCLA	P12	0.35	0.35	73.53	73.53	0.17	0.17
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.34	0.34	44.44	44.44	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.34	0.34	37.93	37.93	-0.08	-0.08
Wyoming	MWC	0.33	0.33	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
Southern California	P12	0.30	0.30	43.75	43.75	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.28	0.28	34.38	34.38	-0.09	-0.09
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.27	0.27	31.25	31.25	-0.10	-0.10
Santa Clara	WCC	0.26	0.26	63.33	63.33	0.07	0.07
North Dakota	BSky	0.25	0.25	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
California	P12	0.25	0.25	64.52	64.52	0.07	0.07
Portland St.	BSky	0.23	0.23	23.08	23.08	-0.12	-0.12
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.23	0.23	72.73	72.73	0.10	0.10
Pepperdine	WCC	0.22	0.22	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Weber St.	BSky	0.22	0.22	80.00	80.00	0.13	0.13
San Diego St.	MWC	0.20	0.20	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
St. Mary's	WCC	0.19	0.19	81.25	81.25	0.12	0.12
Oregon	P12	0.18	0.18	76.47	76.47	0.10	0.10
Montana	BSky	0.17	0.17	79.31	79.31	0.10	0.10
Montana St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Utah	P12	0.16	0.16	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.16	0.16	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Arizona	P12	0.16	0.16	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.16	0.16	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
Washington St.	P12	0.16	0.16	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.16	0.16	35.71	35.71	-0.04	-0.04
Colorado St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	74.19	74.19	0.07	0.07
San Diego	WCC	0.14	0.14	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.14	0.14	85.19	85.19	0.10	0.10
Seattle	WAC	0.14	0.14	24.14	24.14	-0.07	-0.07
Boise St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	65.52	65.52	0.04	0.04
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.14	0.14	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.13	0.13	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	17.86	17.86	-0.08	-0.08
Air Force	MWC	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Utah St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.11	0.11	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Christian	B12	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Denver	WAC	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.08	0.08	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Gonzaga	WCC	0.08	0.08	93.75	93.75	0.07	0.07
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	9.68	9.68	-0.05	-0.05
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	-0.05	-0.05
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02