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Through games of Jan 20, 2017.


Cal St. Fullerton

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:319.8
Current RPI:327
Expected SOS:331
Current SOS:333
Current Record:6-10
Expected Record:10-17
Current Conf Record:2-3
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-9
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:320
Expected OOC SOS:328



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-11231.30.03%
15-12245.20.28%
14-13264.41.49%
13-14281.15.38%
12-15299.212.28%
11-16313.921.38%
10-17325.224.57%
9-18333.420.34%
8-19339.010.65%
7-20342.63.11%
6-21345.20.48%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Fullerton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Portland St. (217.5)BSkyH106-100W100%0.0
11-17Washington (138.8)P12A104-88L0%0.0
11-19UNLV (201.9)MWCA77-68L0%0.0
11-25Jacksonville St. (162.5)OVCN61-38L0%0.0
11-26Alabama St. (338.3)SWACN76-67L0%0.0
11-30Nebraska Omaha (150.5)SumH73-83L0%0.0
12-3Pacific (211.7)WCCH78-77W100%0.0
12-7San Diego (174.3)WCCA82-75L0%0.0
12-10Southern Utah (337.7)BSkyH75-62W100%0.0
12-18Nebraska Omaha (150.5)SumA102-96L0%0.0
12-22Portland (203.3)WCCH77-72W100%0.0
1-5Hawaii (298.1)BWH67-64W100%0.0
1-7Cal St. Northridge (262.6)BWH65-70L0%0.0
1-12Cal Poly (317.4)BWA74-87W100%0.0
1-14UC Irvine (136.4)BWA87-67L0%0.0
1-18UC Riverside (300.7)BWH63-71L0%0.0
1-26Long Beach St. (229.1)BWA0-025%-7.4
1-28Cal Poly (317.4)BWH0-063%3.7
2-2UC Santa Barbara (290.8)BWA0-036%-3.9
2-8UC Davis (213.7)BWA0-023%-8.3
2-11Long Beach St. (229.1)BWH0-046%-1.2
2-16UC Riverside (300.7)BWA0-039%-3.2
2-18UC Davis (213.7)BWH0-042%-2.1
2-22UC Irvine (136.4)BWH0-027%-6.9
2-25Hawaii (298.1)BWA0-031%-5.4
3-2UC Santa Barbara (290.8)BWH0-058%2.3
3-4Cal St. Northridge (262.6)BWA0-027%-6.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Fullerton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal St. Fullerton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal St. Fullerton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal St. FullertonBW26.6326.4832.3535.17-9.40-7.85
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.434.7213.3325.02-0.32-2.36
UC RiversideBW3.404.6815.3826.74-2.35-2.18
Long Beach St.BW0.484.6726.3235.01-0.23-1.40
UC IrvineBW3.404.6750.0058.360.000.78
Cal PolyBW3.294.6620.0027.71-1.98-2.08
Cal St. NorthridgeBW3.434.6633.3340.83-1.14-0.85
UC DavisBW0.314.6352.9453.770.020.35
HawaiiBW3.304.6346.6747.13-0.22-0.27
Nebraska OmahaSum6.253.7747.0649.50-0.37-0.04
PortlandWCC3.532.1550.0041.950.00-0.35
San DiegoWCC3.212.0547.0641.67-0.19-0.34
PacificWCC3.392.0438.8936.89-0.75-0.54
WashingtonP123.221.9847.0641.44-0.19-0.34
UNLVMWC3.331.9644.4441.81-0.37-0.32
Southern UtahBSky3.321.9512.5018.67-2.49-1.22
Portland St.BSky3.311.9561.5459.490.760.37
Alabama St.SWAC3.211.8813.3325.33-2.35-0.93
Jacksonville St.OVC3.221.8850.0051.230.000.05
UCLAP120.470.4395.0089.690.420.34
Santa ClaraWCC0.370.3947.3745.83-0.02-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.640.3616.6720.43-0.43-0.21
PepperdineWCC0.470.3622.2221.17-0.26-0.20
Loyola MarymountWCC0.480.3347.0644.32-0.03-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.370.3063.1660.550.100.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.330.2631.5833.41-0.12-0.08
Saint Mary'sWCC0.340.2588.8987.310.270.19
NevadaMWC0.250.2584.2178.680.170.14
Sacramento St.BSky0.290.2320.0024.21-0.17-0.12
USCP120.250.2380.0071.930.150.10
CaliforniaP120.270.2268.4264.450.100.06
Northern ColoradoBSky0.320.2131.2538.34-0.12-0.05
DenverSum0.280.2057.8955.950.040.02
UtahP120.210.2068.7567.640.080.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.160.2064.7162.600.050.05
SeattleWAC0.180.2040.0037.08-0.04-0.05
Arizona St.P120.290.1947.3744.51-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.170.1970.0068.710.070.07
GonzagaWCC0.170.19100.0097.320.170.18
MontanaBSky0.220.1750.0058.290.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1753.3361.620.010.04
Montana St.BSky0.160.1733.3340.46-0.05-0.03
South DakotaSum0.260.1755.0054.820.030.02
IUPUISum0.260.1638.8943.16-0.06-0.02
IdahoBSky0.090.1640.0044.98-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1658.8261.440.020.04
TCUB120.440.1676.4763.630.230.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.170.1688.2484.520.130.11
Grand CanyonWAC0.210.1461.1163.070.050.04
Idaho St.BSky0.100.1412.5022.04-0.07-0.08
North DakotaBSky0.200.1450.0057.040.000.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.1440.0044.67-0.02-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.200.1360.0053.460.040.01
Fort WayneSum0.160.1364.7166.910.050.04
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1322.2229.94-0.00-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.200.1360.0066.110.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.160.1326.6727.53-0.08-0.06
Weber St.BSky0.000.1350.0061.630.000.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.200.1317.6524.51-0.13-0.07
New MexicoMWC0.180.1357.8958.030.030.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.160.1353.3356.530.010.02
North CarolinaACC0.100.1384.2180.600.070.08
Fresno St.MWC0.180.1358.8254.690.030.01
Oregon St.P120.180.1316.6713.65-0.12-0.09
San Jose St.MWC0.180.1246.6738.45-0.01-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.350.1247.3745.06-0.02-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.1241.1837.57-0.00-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.270.1258.8264.380.050.04
ArizonaP120.080.1289.4784.510.060.09
Colorado St.MWC0.080.1252.9450.600.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.160.1243.7543.98-0.02-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1058.8260.260.000.02
StanfordP120.180.1055.5648.060.02-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.180.1062.5063.120.040.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1022.2223.82-0.05-0.05
TroySB0.200.1047.0648.13-0.01-0.00
OaklandHorz0.090.1072.2274.630.040.05
ColoradoP120.180.0950.0052.890.000.01
KansasB120.080.0994.4481.800.070.06
WyomingMWC0.160.0964.7157.710.050.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.200.0733.3333.28-0.07-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0760.0063.140.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.0737.5044.55-0.02-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0780.0077.810.000.04
St. John'sBE0.100.0745.0038.54-0.01-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.100.0752.9451.020.010.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.0717.6529.60-0.06-0.03
ElonCAA0.100.0750.0051.340.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.0720.0026.44-0.06-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.0752.9451.110.010.00
Illinois St.MVC0.100.0777.7878.460.050.04
IowaB100.160.0755.0049.300.02-0.00
Iowa St.B120.160.0764.7161.830.050.02
Kansas St.B120.160.0777.7862.260.090.02
PittsburghACC0.160.0763.1651.610.040.00
RiceCUSA0.160.0758.8264.790.030.02
Seton HallBE0.100.0766.6758.230.030.01
Southern MissCUSA0.100.0725.0022.32-0.05-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.0742.8650.49-0.010.00
Texas St.SB0.100.0753.3345.980.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.160.0738.8939.92-0.04-0.01
UTSACUSA0.100.0743.7538.29-0.01-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.066.2511.88-0.09-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0621.4336.55-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.190.0664.7156.100.060.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0675.0074.470.040.03
DrakeMVC0.000.0629.4127.72-0.00-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0631.5832.58-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.0625.0029.54-0.05-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.0631.2545.45-0.04-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.0611.1122.97-0.08-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0635.2941.48-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0617.6535.33-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.170.0664.7160.050.050.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0637.5051.21-0.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0631.5833.34-0.03-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0650.0066.300.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.180.0627.7832.97-0.08-0.02
AkronMAC0.080.0683.3376.940.050.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.0635.2937.32-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0670.5973.700.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0664.7169.850.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.0684.2179.280.000.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0626.3228.81-0.04-0.03
TexasB120.000.0638.8935.38-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.080.0618.7524.05-0.05-0.03
Washington St.P120.090.0647.0633.39-0.01-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0678.9582.980.000.04
OregonP120.170.0688.8983.420.130.04
DaytonA100.090.0376.4776.940.050.02
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0322.2227.15-0.05-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0312.5024.37-0.07-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0375.0074.870.040.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.090.0343.7543.71-0.01-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0341.1846.18-0.01-0.00
HowardMEAC0.080.0312.5028.49-0.06-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0325.0028.40-0.04-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.0364.7169.700.030.01
MarylandB100.080.0388.8973.830.060.02
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0363.1659.600.020.01
Murray St.OVC0.080.0350.0055.770.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0340.0038.59-0.02-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.090.0325.0029.15-0.04-0.01
Saint LouisA100.090.0327.7824.32-0.04-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0331.5835.67-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0357.8957.540.010.00
TulsaAmer0.080.0358.8251.180.010.00
USC UpstateASun0.080.0352.9451.300.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0377.7877.270.050.02
Green BayHorz0.080.0352.9450.950.000.00
MassachusettsA100.080.0363.1660.390.020.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.030.0014.44-0.08-0.02
RiderMAAC0.080.0357.8952.960.010.00
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0331.2536.88-0.03-0.01
YaleIvy0.090.0360.0065.720.020.01
DukeACC0.080.0377.7873.860.050.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0323.0830.70-0.04-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.080.0343.7541.41-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0352.6347.720.00-0.00