live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


Cal St. Fullerton

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:278.2
Current RPI:329
Expected SOS:239
Current SOS:327
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-7
Current OOC Record:1-2
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:281
Expected OOC SOS:252



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-9119.00.01%
18-11125.20.05%
17-12141.00.11%
16-13169.20.51%
15-14185.81.66%
14-15205.14.06%
13-16225.66.71%
12-17244.611.20%
11-18263.615.11%
10-19281.517.62%
9-20297.216.68%
8-21311.212.36%
7-22323.68.02%
6-23331.03.88%
5-24338.21.45%
4-25341.40.48%
3-26347.90.07%
2-27346.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Fullerton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Santa Clara (185.8)WCCA89-72L0%0.0
11-16New Mexico (122.4)MWCA67-59L0%0.0
11-22San Jose St. (305.2)MWCH70-66W100%0.0
11-25USC (226.8)P12A0-029%-6.7
11-27Wright St. (131.9)HorzN0-026%-7.7
11-28USC Upstate (238.4)ASunA0-032%-5.7
11-29FIU (205.4)CUSAN0-042%-2.5
12-3UCLA (53.6)P12A0-04%-20.5
12-6Pepperdine (124.9)WCCH0-028%-6.9
12-11Sacramento St. (224.0)BSkyA0-036%-4.4
12-13Nevada (181.7)MWCA0-019%-10.7
12-22Texas A&M Corpus Chris (169.8)SlndH0-045%-1.6
1-3Seattle (264.9)WACH0-056%2.0
1-8UC Riverside (302.7)BWA0-046%-1.1
1-15UC Irvine (98.6)BWH0-024%-8.5
1-17UC Davis (262.5)BWH0-061%3.2
1-22Cal Poly (233.2)BWA0-033%-5.4
1-24UC Santa Barbara (136.8)BWA0-015%-12.5
1-29Long Beach St. (84.6)BWH0-028%-7.0
2-5Cal St. Northridge (205.8)BWH0-052%0.5
2-7UC Riverside (302.7)BWH0-069%6.1
2-12UC Davis (262.5)BWA0-037%-4.0
2-14Hawaii (230.0)BWA0-027%-7.3
2-19Cal Poly (233.2)BWH0-056%1.8
2-21UC Santa Barbara (136.8)BWH0-033%-5.3
2-26Cal St. Northridge (205.8)BWA0-029%-6.7
2-28Long Beach St. (84.6)BWA0-012%-14.2
3-5UC Irvine (98.6)BWA0-010%-15.7
3-7Hawaii (230.0)BWH0-050%-0.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Fullerton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal St. Fullerton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal St. Fullerton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal St. FullertonBW32.2226.4233.3334.64-10.74-8.12
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.004.4540.0042.57-0.00-0.66
UC DavisBW0.004.41100.0042.860.00-0.63
UC RiversideBW0.004.410.0028.28-0.00-1.91
Long Beach St.BW0.004.4125.0050.81-0.000.07
Cal PolyBW0.004.4050.0032.780.00-1.52
UC IrvineBW0.004.3733.3366.60-0.001.45
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.004.370.0054.12-0.000.36
HawaiiBW0.004.3360.0050.000.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.001.9825.0044.66-0.00-0.21
San Jose St.MWC16.671.980.0019.72-16.67-1.20
NevadaMWC0.001.9525.0041.53-0.00-0.33
UCLAP120.001.90100.0063.590.000.52
Santa ClaraWCC16.671.890.0038.19-16.67-0.45
Sacramento St.BSky0.001.8850.0045.260.00-0.18
PepperdineWCC2.781.8866.6755.420.930.20
New MexicoMWC16.671.8250.0054.720.000.17
USCP120.001.8140.0027.07-0.00-0.83
FIUCUSA0.001.7950.0043.040.00-0.25
Wright St.Horz0.001.7966.6756.730.000.24
USC UpstateASun0.001.7866.6753.070.000.11
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.001.7850.0063.410.000.48
Fresno St.MWC0.000.350.0031.48-0.00-0.13
San Diego St.MWC0.000.33100.0084.910.000.23
Utah St.MWC2.780.3175.0060.931.390.07
OregonP120.000.3075.0068.720.000.11
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2833.3326.24-0.00-0.13
San FranciscoWCC0.000.26100.0062.840.000.07
BYUWCC0.000.2666.6768.540.000.10
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.26100.0071.470.000.11
GonzagaWCC0.000.26100.0086.000.000.18
Washington St.P120.000.2533.3328.67-0.00-0.11
Air ForceMWC0.000.2550.0045.710.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.23100.0074.040.000.11
San DiegoWCC0.000.2275.0050.400.000.00
PacificWCC0.000.2233.3332.25-0.00-0.08
CaliforniaP120.000.2175.0068.180.000.08
Portland St.BSky0.000.21100.0049.160.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.2020.0035.87-0.00-0.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1966.6749.970.00-0.00
PortlandWCC2.780.19100.0051.042.780.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1940.0066.65-0.000.06
Colorado St.MWC0.000.19100.0064.710.000.05
UNLVMWC0.000.1975.0051.180.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.19100.0066.880.000.06
Oregon St.P120.000.1866.6745.890.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.180.0065.66-0.000.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.180.0041.06-0.00-0.03
ArizonaP120.000.18100.0074.960.000.09
UtahP120.000.1866.6772.280.000.08
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.160.0030.13-0.00-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1650.0050.880.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.1575.0063.510.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.15100.0081.370.000.09
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.130.0037.06-0.00-0.03
IdahoBSky0.000.1350.0046.080.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.130.0050.64-0.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.130.0024.93-0.00-0.06
WashingtonP120.000.12100.0056.070.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.120.0021.27-0.00-0.07
ColoradoP120.000.1266.6756.740.000.02
StanfordP120.000.1275.0069.760.000.05
NortheasternCAA0.000.10100.0075.310.000.05
UMKCWAC0.000.1025.0046.39-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1075.0074.330.000.05
BradleyMVC0.000.1033.3322.95-0.00-0.05
VermontAE0.000.1033.3358.52-0.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0920.0025.79-0.00-0.05
StetsonASun0.000.090.0033.27-0.00-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0975.0055.490.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0966.6751.200.000.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0975.0056.870.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0720.0029.26-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0733.3344.26-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0775.0055.840.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0766.6752.810.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0766.6751.570.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.070.0039.51-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.0022.57-0.00-0.04
DelawareCAA0.000.070.0020.52-0.00-0.04
IPFWSum0.000.0766.6760.760.000.01
KansasB120.000.0766.6758.820.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0750.0069.360.000.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.07100.0031.710.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0733.3351.67-0.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0666.6746.410.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0666.6764.880.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3323.97-0.00-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.06100.0051.650.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0023.63-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.060.0043.29-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0034.80-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0022.66-0.00-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.060.0043.39-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.060.0044.98-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0625.0057.73-0.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0633.3339.78-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0064.210.000.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0019.76-0.00-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0675.0056.390.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0625.0053.38-0.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0021.49-0.00-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0029.60-0.00-0.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0650.0037.390.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0675.0071.990.000.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3346.01-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0650.0054.870.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0650.0068.360.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0620.0034.54-0.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0675.0057.780.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0625.0035.54-0.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0043.380.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0029.78-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0051.940.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0675.0065.950.000.02
TexasB120.000.06100.0079.170.000.04
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0666.6753.220.000.00
XavierBE0.000.06100.0080.240.000.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0640.0038.36-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0021.40-0.00-0.03
Idaho St.BSky1.670.060.0028.35-1.67-0.03
George MasonA101.670.0620.0021.70-1.00-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0036.18-0.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0650.0045.420.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0633.3342.50-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0633.3343.21-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0666.6750.930.000.00
Boston CollegeACC1.670.0640.0038.53-0.33-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0640.0039.62-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0036.85-0.00-0.02
Michigan St.B102.780.0375.0073.301.390.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0366.6762.260.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0041.580.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0366.6748.390.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0061.740.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0051.910.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0320.0044.69-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.030.0034.13-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.03100.0066.670.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0045.64-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0350.0066.640.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0047.400.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0016.93-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0053.97-0.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0366.6757.060.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0029.61-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0047.530.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0058.710.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0350.0055.640.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0051.710.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0063.550.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.25-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0360.0064.030.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0350.0034.020.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0366.6732.480.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0073.810.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0366.6766.030.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0065.090.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0039.32-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0333.3354.64-0.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0375.0058.190.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0375.0065.610.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.030.0066.25-0.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0050.520.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0375.0040.470.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0087.980.000.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.030.0045.75-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0072.030.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0366.6738.720.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0366.6758.810.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0380.0074.980.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3327.72-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0054.250.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0070.270.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0375.0069.590.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.03100.0066.400.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0320.0035.62-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0350.0062.790.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0380.0043.930.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0366.6745.370.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC1.670.0375.0069.180.830.01