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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Cal St. Fullerton

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:284.7
Current RPI:282
Expected SOS:269
Current SOS:291
Current Record:7-13
Expected Record:9-18
Current Conf Record:2-7
Expected Conf Record:4-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-9
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:235
Expected OOC SOS:336



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-14210.40.07%
12-15228.10.85%
11-16246.94.72%
10-17264.916.84%
9-18281.232.09%
8-19295.932.31%
7-20308.913.11%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Fullerton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Loyola Marymount (242.7)WCCA79-74L0%0.0
11-17Pacific (241.4)WCCA76-77W100%0.0
11-21San Diego (289.4)WCCH67-55W100%0.0
11-24Southern Utah (334.6)BSkyA66-80W100%0.0
11-28Nevada (135.1)MWCH75-66W100%0.0
12-4Seattle (270.5)WACA61-70W100%0.0
12-6Washington (62.4)P12A87-69L0%0.0
12-12Loyola Marymount (242.7)WCCH70-82L0%0.0
12-18Oregon St. (57.3)P12A82-69L0%0.0
12-19Portland (241.9)WCCA65-60L0%0.0
12-29Portland St. (281.7)BSkyA89-82L0%0.0
1-7UC Riverside (263.6)BWA73-79W100%0.0
1-9Cal St. Northridge (276.4)BWH75-85L0%0.0
1-16Hawaii (91.4)BWH79-86L0%0.0
1-20UC Irvine (69.3)BWA72-59L0%0.0
1-23Cal Poly (215.2)BWH75-83L0%0.0
1-27UC Davis (253.9)BWA69-64L0%0.0
1-30UC Riverside (263.6)BWH71-81L0%0.0
2-4UC Davis (253.9)BWH61-57W100%0.0
2-6UC Santa Barbara (121.7)BWA81-68L0%0.0
2-10Cal St. Northridge (276.4)BWA0-042%-2.3
2-13Hawaii (91.4)BWA0-07%-16.1
2-17UC Irvine (69.3)BWH0-025%-7.4
2-20Long Beach St. (101.3)BWA0-011%-13.2
2-25Cal Poly (215.2)BWA0-026%-7.0
2-27UC Santa Barbara (121.7)BWH0-033%-4.7
3-2Long Beach St. (101.3)BWH0-027%-6.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Fullerton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal St. Fullerton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal St. Fullerton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal St. FullertonBW26.5126.4838.5435.32-6.08-7.77
Cal St. NorthridgeBW3.244.7625.0024.65-1.62-2.41
UC IrvineBW3.144.7371.4370.471.351.94
UC Santa BarbaraBW3.044.7240.0047.87-0.61-0.20
UC DavisBW5.624.7238.8935.71-1.25-1.35
UC RiversideBW5.664.7045.4541.05-0.51-0.84
HawaiiBW3.044.6583.3380.492.022.84
Long Beach St.BW0.654.6345.4549.17-0.06-0.08
Cal PolyBW3.044.6226.3230.36-1.44-1.81
Loyola MarymountWCC5.564.1333.3333.84-1.85-1.33
San DiegoWCC3.082.2533.3330.22-1.03-0.89
PortlandWCC3.032.2237.5036.38-0.76-0.61
PacificWCC2.892.2126.3230.05-1.37-0.88
Oregon St.P122.732.0560.0054.810.550.20
NevadaMWC2.752.0257.8956.550.430.26
SeattleWAC2.742.0250.0046.790.00-0.13
Portland St.BSky2.672.0227.7835.33-1.19-0.59
WashingtonP122.621.9963.6459.730.710.39
Southern UtahBSky2.501.8915.7915.94-1.71-1.28
Saint Mary'sWCC0.700.5685.7185.390.500.40
San FranciscoWCC0.550.5354.5550.110.050.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.550.4930.4331.18-0.22-0.18
PepperdineWCC0.440.4656.5257.280.060.07
BYUWCC0.390.4066.6769.500.130.15
GonzagaWCC0.440.3678.2676.810.250.19
USCP120.410.3678.2673.060.230.17
Sacramento St.BSky0.550.3442.1145.73-0.09-0.03
UCLAP120.290.3356.5253.240.040.02
Boise St.MWC0.400.2963.6462.530.110.07
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.370.2452.3854.010.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.320.2440.9143.71-0.06-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.240.2345.0046.13-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.290.2350.0055.200.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.220.2352.3850.410.010.00
OregonP120.120.2282.6179.210.080.13
IdahoBSky0.320.2154.5554.930.030.02
CaliforniaP120.180.2065.2262.880.050.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.2065.2268.610.040.07
ArizonaP120.230.1979.1778.330.130.11
Utah ValleyWAC0.250.1733.3334.94-0.08-0.05
Fresno St.MWC0.190.1761.9059.660.040.03
MontanaBSky0.250.1757.8962.290.040.04
Weber St.BSky0.180.1765.0069.270.050.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.230.1766.6767.690.080.06
UtahP120.240.1669.5767.480.090.06
Arizona St.P120.230.1654.1751.660.020.01
ColoradoP120.220.1669.5765.330.090.05
Air ForceMWC0.190.1345.4538.47-0.02-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.170.1328.5726.96-0.07-0.06
San Diego St.MWC0.120.1372.7372.030.050.06
Washington St.P120.120.1336.3632.00-0.03-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.160.1320.0026.74-0.10-0.06
Utah St.MWC0.120.1345.0046.77-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1347.8344.37-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.1182.6181.140.080.07
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.130.1114.2915.46-0.09-0.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1020.8323.63-0.07-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1016.6720.13-0.08-0.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.1010.0013.13-0.05-0.08
UTSACUSA0.130.1013.6413.62-0.09-0.07
San Jose St.MWC0.120.1025.0022.76-0.06-0.06
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.130.1060.0060.090.030.02
IonaMAAC0.120.1060.8760.730.030.02
StanfordP120.060.1050.0046.610.00-0.01
DenverSum0.160.0954.1751.800.010.00
KansasB120.120.0981.8277.570.070.05
RiceCUSA0.160.0928.5729.72-0.07-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.150.0931.5831.80-0.06-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.120.074.357.73-0.11-0.06
UMKCWAC0.120.0728.5732.71-0.05-0.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0740.9136.61-0.01-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0737.5040.52-0.02-0.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0738.1040.73-0.02-0.01
IPFWSum0.060.0770.8368.570.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0714.2917.92-0.05-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.060.0747.3749.97-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.0763.6462.140.030.02
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0754.1755.080.010.01
OklahomaB120.070.0786.3682.100.050.04
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0778.2678.050.040.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0775.0071.500.030.03
Texas TechB120.070.0759.0953.120.010.00
UMBCAE0.060.0724.0026.41-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.060.0781.8280.030.040.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.0725.0024.36-0.05-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0756.5256.310.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0760.8763.000.010.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0763.1658.790.020.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0741.6741.24-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0777.2776.860.030.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.0713.6415.80-0.08-0.05
VermontAE0.060.0754.1757.520.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0756.5257.000.010.01
WyomingMWC0.130.0743.4842.50-0.02-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0673.9170.040.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.0673.9169.830.000.03
VirginiaACC0.000.0682.6178.050.000.04
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0630.4326.50-0.02-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.069.5213.52-0.08-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0675.0076.240.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.0652.6350.220.010.00
LamarSlnd0.100.0631.5831.96-0.04-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0640.9149.27-0.01-0.00
OhioMAC0.100.0661.9059.430.020.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0645.0049.39-0.01-0.00
TexasB120.110.0669.5762.630.040.02
UCFAmer0.060.0652.3845.700.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0454.5556.000.010.00
UABCUSA0.060.0482.6179.420.040.02
ButlerBE0.060.0369.5767.230.020.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0352.0050.250.000.00
IUPUISum0.060.0340.0039.79-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0317.3920.66-0.04-0.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0321.7423.66-0.04-0.02
DrexelCAA0.060.0313.6418.14-0.04-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0343.4842.62-0.01-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0338.1037.44-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0365.2261.450.020.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0381.8283.040.040.02
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0333.3335.48-0.02-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0372.7376.360.030.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0336.8438.39-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0334.7840.92-0.02-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0340.0045.51-0.01-0.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0368.0067.970.020.01
PennIvy0.050.0338.8937.66-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0372.0070.510.020.01
TCUB120.050.0343.4837.22-0.01-0.01