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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Cal St. Fullerton

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:286.0
Current RPI:286
Expected SOS:272
Current SOS:272
Current Record:11-20
Expected Record:11-20
Current Conf Record:6-11
Expected Conf Record:6-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-8
Current OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC RPI:277
Expected OOC SOS:290



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-20286.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Fullerton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Montana St. (275.0)BSkyA55-84W100%0.0
11-13Seattle (267.0)WACA75-71L0%0.0
11-16Santa Clara (210.0)WCCH86-73W100%0.0
11-19USC (176.0)P12A76-62L0%0.0
11-23San Jose St. (278.0)MWCA81-59L0%0.0
11-28Marquette (92.0)BEH66-86L0%0.0
11-29Miami FL (110.0)ACCH46-48L0%0.0
12-1College of Charleston (242.0)CAAN61-48L0%0.0
12-4Pepperdine (159.0)WCCA64-78W100%0.0
12-7Seattle (267.0)WACH65-74L0%0.0
12-15Texas Southern (239.0)SWACH87-80W100%0.0
12-21Sacramento St. (263.0)BSkyH59-51W100%0.0
12-28UNLV (108.0)MWCA83-64L0%0.0
1-4Tulsa (73.0)CUSAA73-57L0%0.0
1-9UC Riverside (319.0)BWH78-73W100%0.0
1-16UC Irvine (111.0)BWA72-54L0%0.0
1-18UC Davis (326.0)BWA69-61L0%0.0
1-23Cal Poly (208.0)BWH56-58L0%0.0
1-25UC Santa Barbara (107.0)BWH74-72W100%0.0
2-1Long Beach St. (166.0)BWA75-56L0%0.0
2-6UC Riverside (319.0)BWA72-69L0%0.0
2-8Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWA92-83L0%0.0
2-13UC Davis (326.0)BWH74-64W100%0.0
2-15Hawaii (160.0)BWH80-83L0%0.0
2-20Cal Poly (208.0)BWA59-67W100%0.0
2-22UC Santa Barbara (107.0)BWA80-65L0%0.0
2-27Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWH82-81W100%0.0
3-1Long Beach St. (166.0)BWH84-76W100%0.0
3-6UC Irvine (111.0)BWH44-62L0%0.0
3-8Hawaii (160.0)BWA81-77L0%0.0
3-13Long Beach St. (166.0)BWN66-56L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Fullerton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal St. Fullerton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal St. Fullerton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal St. FullertonBW26.4326.4333.8333.83-8.54-8.54
Long Beach St.BW5.675.6740.7440.74-1.05-1.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.374.3745.1645.16-0.42-0.42
UC RiversideBW4.224.2225.9325.93-2.03-2.03
Cal PolyBW4.224.2235.7135.71-1.20-1.20
UC IrvineBW4.214.2163.3363.331.121.12
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.164.1669.2369.231.601.60
UC DavisBW4.154.1522.2222.22-2.30-2.30
HawaiiBW4.084.0859.2659.260.760.76
SeattleWAC3.443.4434.6234.62-1.06-1.06
Sacramento St.BSky1.831.8344.4444.44-0.20-0.20
Montana St.BSky1.821.8242.8642.86-0.26-0.26
PepperdineWCC1.801.8048.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Santa ClaraWCC1.771.7740.0040.00-0.35-0.35
San Jose St.MWC1.751.7514.2914.29-1.25-1.25
USCP121.741.7430.0030.00-0.70-0.70
UNLVMWC1.721.7259.3859.380.320.32
Miami FLACC1.661.6650.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC1.661.6658.0658.060.270.27
TulsaCUSA1.641.6462.5062.500.410.41
College of CharlestonCAA1.641.6440.0040.00-0.33-0.33
MarquetteBE1.611.6151.6151.610.050.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.300.3038.7138.71-0.07-0.07
NevadaMWC0.290.2946.8846.88-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.270.2744.8344.83-0.03-0.03
IdahoWAC0.270.2745.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.260.2648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.250.2554.8454.840.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.240.243.573.57-0.22-0.22
PacificWCC0.240.2448.2848.28-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.240.2487.1087.100.170.17
New Mexico St.WAC0.230.2373.5373.530.110.11
Boise St.MWC0.220.2259.3859.380.040.04
PortlandWCC0.220.2248.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.220.2235.7135.71-0.06-0.06
WashingtonP120.210.2153.1253.120.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.200.2038.7138.71-0.04-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.200.2048.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.190.1951.7251.720.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
StanfordP120.190.1963.6463.640.050.05
ArizonaP120.180.1888.2488.240.140.14
Arizona St.P120.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
MontanaBSky0.170.1753.5753.570.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
Kansas St.B120.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
CaliforniaP120.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
OregonP120.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
CreightonBE0.160.1678.7978.790.090.09
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.1561.7661.760.040.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.140.1462.0762.070.030.03
Weber St.BSky0.140.1460.7160.710.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.1446.1546.15-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1448.1548.15-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
ColoradoP120.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
WyomingMWC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
New MexicoMWC0.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
Chicago St.WAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
UMKCWAC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Idaho St.BSky0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Oregon St.P120.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
UtahP120.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
BYUWCC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
DelawareCAA0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
XavierBE0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1014.8114.81-0.07-0.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
MichiganB100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
James MadisonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
DenverSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
TCUB120.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
TroySB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
UICHorz0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0593.1093.100.040.04
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
DavidsonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MaristMAAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
DukeACC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
La SalleA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
NebraskaB100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
OklahomaB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
UCFAmer0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02