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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Cal St. Fullerton

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:269.0
Current RPI:269
Expected SOS:341
Current SOS:341
Current Record:15-14
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:11-7
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-8
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:339
Expected OOC SOS:347



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-14269.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Fullerton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Portland St. (268.0)BSkyH106-100W100%0.0
11-17Washington (211.0)P12A104-88L0%0.0
11-19UNLV (242.0)MWCA77-68L0%0.0
11-25Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCN61-38L0%0.0
11-26Alabama St. (342.0)SWACN76-67L0%0.0
11-30Nebraska Omaha (132.0)SumH73-83L0%0.0
12-3Pacific (223.0)WCCH78-77W100%0.0
12-7San Diego (205.0)WCCA82-75L0%0.0
12-10Southern Utah (341.0)BSkyH75-62W100%0.0
12-18Nebraska Omaha (132.0)SumA102-96L0%0.0
12-22Portland (233.0)WCCH77-72W100%0.0
1-5Hawaii (300.0)BWH67-64W100%0.0
1-7Cal St. Northridge (312.0)BWH65-70L0%0.0
1-12Cal Poly (297.0)BWA74-87W100%0.0
1-14UC Irvine (135.0)BWA87-67L0%0.0
1-18UC Riverside (330.0)BWH63-71L0%0.0
1-26Long Beach St. (214.0)BWA76-65L0%0.0
1-28Cal Poly (297.0)BWH81-71W100%0.0
2-2UC Santa Barbara (324.0)BWA53-79W100%0.0
2-8UC Davis (166.0)BWA74-65L0%0.0
2-11Long Beach St. (214.0)BWH74-69W100%0.0
2-16UC Riverside (330.0)BWA55-56W100%0.0
2-18UC Davis (166.0)BWH79-72W100%0.0
2-22UC Irvine (135.0)BWH56-54W100%0.0
2-25Hawaii (300.0)BWA64-58L0%0.0
3-2UC Santa Barbara (324.0)BWH65-54W100%0.0
3-4Cal St. Northridge (312.0)BWA78-86W100%0.0
3-9Cal St. Northridge (312.0)BWN81-68W100%0.0
3-10UC Davis (166.0)BWN66-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Fullerton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal St. Fullerton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal St. Fullerton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal St. FullertonBW26.5926.5951.2251.220.650.65
UC DavisBW6.176.1762.0762.071.491.49
Cal St. NorthridgeBW6.076.0736.0036.00-1.70-1.70
UC IrvineBW4.624.6258.0658.060.750.75
Long Beach St.BW4.534.5340.0040.00-0.91-0.91
Cal PolyBW4.494.4933.3333.33-1.50-1.50
UC RiversideBW4.484.4820.0020.00-2.69-2.69
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.464.4620.0020.00-2.67-2.67
HawaiiBW4.444.4444.4444.44-0.49-0.49
Nebraska OmahaSum3.513.5151.7251.720.120.12
PortlandWCC2.052.0530.0030.00-0.82-0.82
San DiegoWCC1.931.9337.9337.93-0.46-0.46
PacificWCC1.891.8932.2632.26-0.67-0.67
WashingtonP121.841.8426.6726.67-0.86-0.86
UNLVMWC1.821.8232.2632.26-0.64-0.64
Southern UtahBSky1.811.8113.3313.33-1.33-1.33
Portland St.BSky1.811.8144.4444.44-0.20-0.20
Jacksonville St.OVC1.751.7554.8454.840.170.17
Alabama St.SWAC1.751.7520.6920.69-1.03-1.03
UCLAP120.410.4187.8887.880.310.31
Northern ArizonaBSky0.370.3725.8125.81-0.18-0.18
Santa ClaraWCC0.360.3650.0050.000.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.340.3426.6726.67-0.16-0.16
Loyola MarymountWCC0.320.3248.2848.28-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.270.2750.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.260.2661.2961.290.060.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.250.2587.5087.500.190.19
USCP120.230.2372.7372.730.110.11
Sacramento St.BSky0.220.2237.9337.93-0.05-0.05
NevadaMWC0.220.2282.3582.350.150.15
GonzagaWCC0.220.2296.9796.970.210.21
CaliforniaP120.220.2263.6463.640.060.06
SeattleWAC0.200.2037.0437.04-0.05-0.05
IUPUISum0.190.1940.0040.00-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.190.1960.7160.710.040.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
UtahP120.180.1862.0762.070.040.04
DenverSum0.180.1853.3353.330.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.170.1745.4545.45-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
BYUWCC0.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
Fort WayneSum0.170.1757.1457.140.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.160.1653.5753.570.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.160.1667.8667.860.060.06
MontanaBSky0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.150.1513.3313.33-0.11-0.11
North DakotaBSky0.150.1567.8667.860.050.05
New MexicoMWC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
San Diego St.MWC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
TCUB120.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1383.3383.330.090.09
Air ForceMWC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1268.9768.970.050.05
StanfordP120.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.120.1278.5778.570.070.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
Fresno St.MWC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.110.1178.7978.790.070.07
Oral RobertsSum0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1123.0823.08-0.06-0.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.110.1112.9012.90-0.08-0.08
San Jose St.MWC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
ArizonaP120.110.1188.2488.240.080.08
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
TroySB0.090.0958.8258.820.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
ColoradoP120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
DrakeMVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
KansasB120.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
WyomingMWC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
SMUAmer0.060.0688.2488.240.050.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
Seton HallBE0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
IowaB100.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Iowa St.B120.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Kansas St.B120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
UMKCWAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0529.4129.41-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00