live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Mar 11, 2012.


Cal St. Fullerton

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:157.0
Current RPI:157
Expected SOS:316
Current SOS:316
Current Record:19-9
Expected Record:19-9
Current Conf Record:12-5
Expected Conf Record:12-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-6
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:171
Expected OOC SOS:313



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-9157.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Fullerton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Nicholls St. (298.0)SlndN63-73W100%0.0
11-19Louisiana Lafayette (185.0)SBA63-69W100%0.0
11-20Houston Baptist (324.0)GWCN83-88L0%0.0
11-26Cal St. Bakersfield (213.0)indH66-73L0%0.0
12-1Wichita St. (12.0)MVCA75-60L0%0.0
12-3SIU Edwardsville (300.0)OVCA57-79W100%0.0
12-7Utah (274.0)P12A50-81W100%0.0
12-11Eastern Washington (209.0)BSkyH91-76W100%0.0
12-22Portland St. (187.0)BSkyH92-86W100%0.0
12-29UC Davis (338.0)BWH65-64W100%0.0
1-2Pacific (288.0)BWH78-73W100%0.0
1-5UC Santa Barbara (119.0)BWA77-64L0%0.0
1-7Cal Poly (219.0)BWA73-67L0%0.0
1-14Cal St. Bakersfield (213.0)indA67-65L0%0.0
1-18UC Riverside (253.0)BWH72-61W100%0.0
1-21UC Irvine (254.0)BWA84-92W100%0.0
1-26Cal St. Northridge (323.0)BWA68-70W100%0.0
1-28Long Beach St. (34.0)BWA75-61L0%0.0
2-2Cal Poly (219.0)BWH83-61W100%0.0
2-4UC Santa Barbara (119.0)BWH99-86W100%0.0
2-9UC Irvine (254.0)BWH100-94W100%0.0
2-15UC Riverside (253.0)BWA64-77W100%0.0
2-18Montana St. (275.0)BSkyH80-66W100%0.0
2-23Pacific (288.0)BWA68-69W100%0.0
2-25UC Davis (338.0)BWA78-75L0%0.0
2-29Cal St. Northridge (323.0)BWH87-76W100%0.0
3-3Long Beach St. (34.0)BWH77-74W100%0.0
3-8UC Irvine (254.0)BWN59-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Fullerton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal St. Fullerton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal St. Fullerton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal St. FullertonBW26.5626.5671.3171.3111.3211.32
UC IrvineBW6.316.3134.6234.62-1.94-1.94
Cal PolyBW4.764.7651.7251.720.160.16
Long Beach St.BW4.724.7275.8675.862.442.44
PacificBW4.694.6934.6234.62-1.44-1.44
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.674.6765.3865.381.441.44
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.624.6220.8320.83-2.69-2.69
UC DavisBW4.594.5910.7110.71-3.61-3.61
UC RiversideBW4.594.5944.4444.44-0.51-0.51
Cal St. Bakersfieldind4.014.0144.0044.00-0.48-0.48
Montana St.BSky2.092.0938.4638.46-0.48-0.48
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.062.0644.8344.83-0.21-0.21
Portland St.BSky2.012.0151.7251.720.070.07
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.851.8551.7251.720.060.06
Nicholls St.Slnd1.851.8529.6329.63-0.75-0.75
Houston BaptistGWC1.851.8523.0823.08-0.99-0.99
UtahP121.821.8217.2417.24-1.19-1.19
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.791.7933.3333.33-0.60-0.60
Wichita St.MVC1.791.7983.3383.331.191.19
San Jose St.WAC0.430.4326.6726.67-0.20-0.20
Sacramento St.BSky0.370.3730.7730.77-0.14-0.14
Northern ArizonaBSky0.340.3411.1111.11-0.26-0.26
Weber St.BSky0.340.3478.5778.570.190.19
Idaho St.BSky0.310.3127.5927.59-0.14-0.14
HawaiiWAC0.290.2946.6746.67-0.02-0.02
IdahoWAC0.280.2855.1755.170.030.03
Seattleind0.270.2737.5037.50-0.07-0.07
MontanaBSky0.270.2779.3179.310.160.16
Northern ColoradoBSky0.240.2430.7730.77-0.09-0.09
San Diego St.MWC0.240.2477.4277.420.130.13
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.230.2339.2939.29-0.05-0.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.230.2321.4321.43-0.13-0.13
San DiegoWCC0.220.2237.9337.93-0.05-0.05
Fresno St.WAC0.220.2235.4835.48-0.06-0.06
Southern CaliforniaP120.220.2218.7518.75-0.14-0.14
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.220.2275.0075.000.110.11
CaliforniaP120.220.2272.7372.730.100.10
UCLAP120.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.200.2025.0025.00-0.10-0.10
WashingtonP120.200.2067.7467.740.070.07
NevadaWAC0.190.1980.0080.000.110.11
ColoradoP120.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
StanfordP120.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
Southern UtahSum0.180.1841.3841.38-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.170.1732.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Utah St.WAC0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
CreightonMVC0.150.1584.8584.850.100.10
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
Chicago St.GWC0.130.1310.7110.71-0.10-0.10
DrakeMVC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana St.SEC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.120.1210.7110.71-0.10-0.10
WyomingMWC0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Washington St.P120.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1037.0437.04-0.03-0.03
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Utah ValleyGWC0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
LamarSlnd0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.090.0920.0020.00-0.06-0.06
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Southern MississippiCUSA0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
AuburnSEC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
North TexasSB0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
DenverSB0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
St. Mary'sWCC0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
North DakotaGWC0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Texas St.Slnd0.060.0634.6234.62-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0634.6234.62-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Texas El PasoCUSA0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0639.3939.39-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.060.066.676.67-0.05-0.05
BradleyMVC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
KansasB120.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Kansas St.B120.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
LouisvilleBE0.060.0674.2974.290.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
PittsburghBE0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
XavierA100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.040.0448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.040.0436.3636.36-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
LipscombASun0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.040.0496.4396.430.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0413.7913.79-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.040.046.906.90-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0460.0060.000.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
TexasB120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Central FloridaCUSA0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida InternationalSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
DavidsonSC0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
TempleA100.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
TulsaCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00