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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Cal St. Fullerton

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:314.0
Current RPI:314
Expected SOS:239
Current SOS:239
Current Record:7-22
Expected Record:7-22
Current Conf Record:1-15
Expected Conf Record:1-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-6
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:226
Expected OOC SOS:295



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-22314.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Fullerton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Santa Clara (202.0)WCCA89-72L0%0.0
11-16New Mexico (172.0)MWCA67-59L0%0.0
11-22San Jose St. (336.0)MWCH70-66W100%0.0
11-25USC (207.0)P12A53-49L0%0.0
11-27Wright St. (264.0)HorzN62-67W100%0.0
11-28USC Upstate (208.0)ASunA79-64L0%0.0
11-29FIU (217.0)CUSAN64-61W100%0.0
12-3UCLA (48.0)P12A73-45L0%0.0
12-6Pepperdine (134.0)WCCH62-74L0%0.0
12-11Sacramento St. (141.0)BSkyA73-59L0%0.0
12-13Nevada (306.0)MWCA55-65W100%0.0
12-22Texas A&M Corpus Chris (209.0)SlndH82-77W100%0.0
1-3Seattle (280.0)WACH67-55W100%0.0
1-8UC Riverside (234.0)BWA84-78L0%0.0
1-15UC Irvine (88.0)BWH58-63L0%0.0
1-17UC Davis (75.0)BWH68-79L0%0.0
1-22Cal Poly (199.0)BWA66-55L0%0.0
1-24UC Santa Barbara (87.0)BWA68-49L0%0.0
1-29Long Beach St. (111.0)BWH85-91L0%0.0
2-5Cal St. Northridge (282.0)BWH69-53W100%0.0
2-7UC Riverside (234.0)BWH66-71L0%0.0
2-12UC Davis (75.0)BWA75-69L0%0.0
2-14Hawaii (152.0)BWA81-61L0%0.0
2-19Cal Poly (199.0)BWH54-65L0%0.0
2-21UC Santa Barbara (87.0)BWH54-69L0%0.0
2-26Cal St. Northridge (282.0)BWA82-72L0%0.0
2-28Long Beach St. (111.0)BWA70-47L0%0.0
3-5UC Irvine (88.0)BWA68-62L0%0.0
3-7Hawaii (152.0)BWH70-91L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Fullerton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal St. Fullerton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal St. Fullerton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal St. FullertonBW26.2926.2922.8322.83-14.28-14.28
UC IrvineBW4.454.4558.6258.620.770.77
HawaiiBW4.434.4358.0658.060.720.72
UC DavisBW4.424.4277.7877.782.452.45
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.404.4020.6920.69-2.58-2.58
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.404.4053.5753.570.310.31
Long Beach St.BW4.364.3641.3841.38-0.75-0.75
UC RiversideBW4.364.3637.0437.04-1.13-1.13
Cal PolyBW4.364.3636.0036.00-1.22-1.22
San Jose St.MWC1.961.960.000.00-1.96-1.96
SeattleWAC1.961.9650.0050.000.000.00
NevadaMWC1.931.9325.0025.00-0.97-0.97
UCLAP121.921.9259.3859.380.360.36
Santa ClaraWCC1.881.8837.9337.93-0.45-0.45
Sacramento St.BSky1.871.8760.7160.710.400.40
PepperdineWCC1.871.8755.1755.170.190.19
USCP121.831.8335.4835.48-0.53-0.53
New MexicoMWC1.811.8146.6746.67-0.12-0.12
FIUCUSA1.781.7846.6746.67-0.12-0.12
USC UpstateASun1.781.7862.0762.070.430.43
Wright St.Horz1.781.7832.1432.14-0.64-0.64
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.781.7858.6258.620.310.31
Fresno St.MWC0.320.3243.3343.33-0.04-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.320.3275.7675.760.160.16
Utah St.MWC0.290.2956.6756.670.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.290.2923.3323.33-0.15-0.15
OregonP120.270.2772.7372.730.120.12
Air ForceMWC0.260.2641.3841.38-0.05-0.05
GonzagaWCC0.260.2693.9493.940.230.23
BYUWCC0.250.2571.8871.880.110.11
Saint Mary'sWCC0.230.2368.9768.970.090.09
Colorado St.MWC0.230.2381.2581.250.150.15
Portland St.BSky0.230.2348.1548.15-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.230.2341.9441.94-0.04-0.04
Washington St.P120.230.2341.9441.94-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.230.2365.5265.520.070.07
San DiegoWCC0.230.2346.6746.67-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.210.2153.1253.120.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.200.2067.7467.740.070.07
PacificWCC0.200.2032.1432.14-0.07-0.07
CaliforniaP120.200.2054.5554.550.020.02
ArizonaP120.190.1991.1891.180.160.16
Utah ValleyWAC0.180.1832.1432.14-0.06-0.06
WyomingMWC0.180.1871.8871.880.080.08
PortlandWCC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.170.1736.6736.67-0.05-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.170.1722.5822.58-0.09-0.09
WashingtonP120.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.170.1786.6786.670.120.12
UtahP120.170.1774.1974.190.080.08
Oregon St.P120.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
ColoradoP120.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
LouisvilleACC0.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
IdahoBSky0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.120.1273.3373.330.050.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Montana St.BSky0.110.1120.6920.69-0.07-0.07
XavierBE0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
Arizona St.P120.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
StanfordP120.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0917.2417.24-0.06-0.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0930.7730.77-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0972.4172.410.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.090.0930.0030.00-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
VermontAE0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
BradleyMVC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
UTSACUSA0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
DelawareCAA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
DetroitHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
DenverSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0658.3358.330.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
LipscombASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0652.9452.940.000.00
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
SyracuseACC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
TexasB120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
ArmyPat0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01