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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Cal St. Fullerton

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:290.0
Current RPI:290
Expected SOS:257
Current SOS:257
Current Record:8-20
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:3-14
Expected Conf Record:3-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-10
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-9
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:236
Expected OOC SOS:334



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-20290.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Fullerton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Loyola Marymount (223.0)WCCA79-74L0%0.0
11-17Pacific (268.0)WCCA76-77W100%0.0
11-21San Diego (302.0)WCCH67-55W100%0.0
11-24Southern Utah (336.0)BSkyA66-80W100%0.0
11-28Nevada (118.0)MWCH75-66W100%0.0
12-4Seattle (287.0)WACA61-70W100%0.0
12-6Washington (83.0)P12A87-69L0%0.0
12-12Loyola Marymount (223.0)WCCH70-82L0%0.0
12-18Oregon St. (33.0)P12A82-69L0%0.0
12-19Portland (249.0)WCCA65-60L0%0.0
12-29Portland St. (282.0)BSkyA89-82L0%0.0
1-7UC Riverside (267.0)BWA73-79W100%0.0
1-9Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWH75-85L0%0.0
1-16Hawaii (80.0)BWH79-86L0%0.0
1-20UC Irvine (75.0)BWA72-59L0%0.0
1-23Cal Poly (236.0)BWH75-83L0%0.0
1-27UC Davis (281.0)BWA69-64L0%0.0
1-30UC Riverside (267.0)BWH71-81L0%0.0
2-4UC Davis (281.0)BWH61-57W100%0.0
2-6UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWA81-68L0%0.0
2-10Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWA75-67L0%0.0
2-13Hawaii (80.0)BWA76-59L0%0.0
2-17UC Irvine (75.0)BWH77-96L0%0.0
2-20Long Beach St. (79.0)BWA70-57L0%0.0
2-25Cal Poly (236.0)BWA77-78W100%0.0
2-27UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWH62-80L0%0.0
3-2Long Beach St. (79.0)BWH73-75L0%0.0
3-10Hawaii (80.0)BWN75-44L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Fullerton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal St. Fullerton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal St. Fullerton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal St. FullertonBW26.5026.5031.8831.88-9.60-9.60
HawaiiBW6.346.3481.4881.483.993.99
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.714.7153.5753.570.340.34
UC IrvineBW4.694.6970.0070.001.881.88
Long Beach St.BW4.684.6853.3353.330.310.31
UC DavisBW4.614.6130.7730.77-1.77-1.77
UC RiversideBW4.594.5937.9337.93-1.11-1.11
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.584.5823.0823.08-2.47-2.47
Cal PolyBW4.524.5226.9226.92-2.09-2.09
Loyola MarymountWCC4.004.0039.2939.29-0.86-0.86
San DiegoWCC2.222.2228.5728.57-0.95-0.95
PortlandWCC2.132.1333.3333.33-0.71-0.71
PacificWCC2.112.1124.0024.00-1.10-1.10
NevadaMWC1.971.9758.6258.620.340.34
Oregon St.P121.961.9658.6258.620.340.34
Portland St.BSky1.941.9435.7135.71-0.55-0.55
SeattleWAC1.941.9444.4444.44-0.22-0.22
WashingtonP121.911.9154.8454.840.180.18
Southern UtahBSky1.821.8214.8114.81-1.28-1.28
Saint Mary'sWCC0.580.5883.8783.870.390.39
San FranciscoWCC0.490.4948.2848.28-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.450.4533.3333.33-0.15-0.15
PepperdineWCC0.430.4356.6756.670.060.06
GonzagaWCC0.360.3678.1278.120.200.20
BYUWCC0.360.3668.7568.750.140.14
USCP120.330.3363.6463.640.090.09
Sacramento St.BSky0.320.3241.3841.38-0.05-0.05
UCLAP120.300.3046.8846.88-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.270.2760.0060.000.050.05
Montana St.BSky0.240.2443.3343.33-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.230.2381.8281.820.140.14
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.220.2248.2848.28-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.210.2151.6151.610.010.01
CaliforniaP120.210.2169.7069.700.080.08
Colorado St.MWC0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
IdahoBSky0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
Weber St.BSky0.180.1874.1974.190.090.09
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.180.1872.4172.410.080.08
ArizonaP120.180.1875.7675.760.090.09
New Mexico St.WAC0.180.1867.7467.740.060.06
Arizona St.P120.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Fresno St.MWC0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
MontanaBSky0.150.1562.0762.070.040.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
UtahP120.150.1575.7675.760.080.08
San Diego St.MWC0.150.1571.8871.880.060.06
ColoradoP120.140.1465.6265.620.050.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.130.1318.5218.52-0.08-0.08
Air ForceMWC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.1224.2424.24-0.06-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1222.8622.86-0.07-0.07
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.120.1257.6957.690.020.02
Washington St.P120.120.1226.6726.67-0.05-0.05
StanfordP120.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0979.3179.310.060.06
North DakotaBSky0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
San Jose St.MWC0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
AuburnSEC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
OklahomaB120.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
Texas TechB120.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
IonaMAAC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
DenverSum0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
RiceCUSA0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.090.0987.8887.880.060.06
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.060.063.453.45-0.06-0.06
IPFWSum0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
UMBCAE0.060.0621.8821.88-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0611.1111.11-0.05-0.05
VermontAE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Seton HallBE0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
TexasB120.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
UCFAmer0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Green BayHorz0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
DrexelCAA0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01