Cal St. Fullerton

Conference:	BW
Expected RPI:	157.0
Current RPI:	157
Expected SOS:	316
Current SOS:	316
Current Record:	19-9
Expected Record:	19-9
Current Conf Record:	12-5
Expected Conf Record:	12-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	15-6
Current OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC RPI:	171
Expected OOC SOS:	313

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-9	157.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Fullerton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-18	Nicholls St. (298.0)	Slnd	N	63-73	W	100%
11-19	Louisiana Lafayette (185.0)	SB	A	63-69	W	100%
11-20	Houston Baptist (324.0)	GWC	N	83-88	L	0%
11-26	Cal St. Bakersfield (213.0)	ind	H	66-73	L	0%
12-1	Wichita St. (12.0)	MVC	A	75-60	L	0%
12-3	SIU Edwardsville (300.0)	OVC	A	57-79	W	100%
12-7	Utah (274.0)	P12	A	50-81	W	100%
12-11	Eastern Washington (209.0)	BSky	H	91-76	W	100%
12-22	Portland St. (187.0)	BSky	H	92-86	W	100%
12-29	UC Davis (338.0)	BW	H	65-64	W	100%
1-2	Pacific (288.0)	BW	H	78-73	W	100%
1-5	UC Santa Barbara (119.0)	BW	A	77-64	L	0%
1-7	Cal Poly (219.0)	BW	A	73-67	L	0%
1-14	Cal St. Bakersfield (213.0)	ind	A	67-65	L	0%
1-18	UC Riverside (253.0)	BW	H	72-61	W	100%
1-21	UC Irvine (254.0)	BW	A	84-92	W	100%
1-26	Cal St. Northridge (323.0)	BW	A	68-70	W	100%
1-28	Long Beach St. (34.0)	BW	A	75-61	L	0%
2-2	Cal Poly (219.0)	BW	H	83-61	W	100%
2-4	UC Santa Barbara (119.0)	BW	H	99-86	W	100%
2-9	UC Irvine (254.0)	BW	H	100-94	W	100%
2-15	UC Riverside (253.0)	BW	A	64-77	W	100%
2-18	Montana St. (275.0)	BSky	H	80-66	W	100%
2-23	Pacific (288.0)	BW	A	68-69	W	100%
2-25	UC Davis (338.0)	BW	A	78-75	L	0%
2-29	Cal St. Northridge (323.0)	BW	H	87-76	W	100%
3-3	Long Beach St. (34.0)	BW	H	77-74	W	100%
3-8	UC Irvine (254.0)	BW	N	59-65	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Fullerton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Cal St. Fullerton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Cal St. Fullerton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	26.56	26.56	71.31	71.31	11.32	11.32
UC Irvine	BW	6.31	6.31	34.62	34.62	-1.94	-1.94
Cal Poly	BW	4.76	4.76	51.72	51.72	0.16	0.16
Long Beach St.	BW	4.72	4.72	75.86	75.86	2.44	2.44
Pacific	BW	4.69	4.69	34.62	34.62	-1.44	-1.44
UC Santa Barbara	BW	4.67	4.67	65.38	65.38	1.44	1.44
Cal St. Northridge	BW	4.62	4.62	20.83	20.83	-2.69	-2.69
UC Davis	BW	4.59	4.59	10.71	10.71	-3.61	-3.61
UC Riverside	BW	4.59	4.59	44.44	44.44	-0.51	-0.51
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	4.01	4.01	44.00	44.00	-0.48	-0.48
Montana St.	BSky	2.09	2.09	38.46	38.46	-0.48	-0.48
Eastern Washington	BSky	2.06	2.06	44.83	44.83	-0.21	-0.21
Portland St.	BSky	2.01	2.01	51.72	51.72	0.07	0.07
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	1.85	1.85	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Nicholls St.	Slnd	1.85	1.85	29.63	29.63	-0.75	-0.75
Houston Baptist	GWC	1.85	1.85	23.08	23.08	-0.99	-0.99
Utah	P12	1.82	1.82	17.24	17.24	-1.19	-1.19
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	1.79	1.79	33.33	33.33	-0.60	-0.60
Wichita St.	MVC	1.79	1.79	83.33	83.33	1.19	1.19
San Jose St.	WAC	0.43	0.43	26.67	26.67	-0.20	-0.20
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.37	0.37	30.77	30.77	-0.14	-0.14
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.34	0.34	11.11	11.11	-0.26	-0.26
Weber St.	BSky	0.34	0.34	78.57	78.57	0.19	0.19
Idaho St.	BSky	0.31	0.31	27.59	27.59	-0.14	-0.14
Hawaii	WAC	0.29	0.29	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho	WAC	0.28	0.28	55.17	55.17	0.03	0.03
Seattle	ind	0.27	0.27	37.50	37.50	-0.07	-0.07
Montana	BSky	0.27	0.27	79.31	79.31	0.16	0.16
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.24	0.24	30.77	30.77	-0.09	-0.09
San Diego St.	MWC	0.24	0.24	77.42	77.42	0.13	0.13
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.23	0.23	39.29	39.29	-0.05	-0.05
Santa Clara	WCC	0.23	0.23	21.43	21.43	-0.13	-0.13
San Diego	WCC	0.22	0.22	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Fresno St.	WAC	0.22	0.22	35.48	35.48	-0.06	-0.06
Southern California	P12	0.22	0.22	18.75	18.75	-0.14	-0.14
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.22	0.22	75.00	75.00	0.11	0.11
California	P12	0.22	0.22	72.73	72.73	0.10	0.10
UCLA	P12	0.21	0.21	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.20	0.20	25.00	25.00	-0.10	-0.10
Washington	P12	0.20	0.20	67.74	67.74	0.07	0.07
Nevada	WAC	0.19	0.19	80.00	80.00	0.11	0.11
Colorado	P12	0.18	0.18	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Stanford	P12	0.18	0.18	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Southern Utah	Sum	0.18	0.18	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.17	0.17	32.14	32.14	-0.06	-0.06
Utah St.	WAC	0.16	0.16	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.16	0.16	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.15	0.15	84.85	84.85	0.10	0.10
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Chicago St.	GWC	0.13	0.13	10.71	10.71	-0.10	-0.10
Drake	MVC	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.12	0.12	10.71	10.71	-0.10	-0.10
Wyoming	MWC	0.12	0.12	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.10	0.10	37.04	37.04	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.10	0.10	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Utah Valley	GWC	0.10	0.10	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Lamar	Slnd	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Portland	WCC	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
San Francisco	WCC	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Auburn	SEC	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.09	0.09	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
North Texas	SB	0.09	0.09	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Denver	SB	0.09	0.09	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
St. Mary's	WCC	0.09	0.09	83.33	83.33	0.06	0.06
Indiana St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.07	0.07	81.25	81.25	0.04	0.04
North Dakota	GWC	0.07	0.07	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Texas St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	34.62	34.62	-0.02	-0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	34.62	34.62	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.06	0.06	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	21.88	21.88	-0.03	-0.03
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.06	0.06	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.04	0.04	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.04	0.04	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.04	0.04	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.04	0.04	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.04	0.04	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.04	0.04	96.43	96.43	0.03	0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.04	0.04	13.79	13.79	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.04	0.04	6.90	6.90	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.04	0.04	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	86.21	86.21	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00