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Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Northwestern St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:332.0
Current RPI:337
Expected SOS:317
Current SOS:276
Current Record:3-14
Expected Record:6-18
Current Conf Record:3-8
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-7
Current OOC Record:0-6
Expected OOC Record:0-6
Expected OOC RPI:310
Expected OOC SOS:47



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-14284.60.32%
9-15300.33.60%
8-16316.314.44%
7-17329.128.52%
6-18337.629.88%
5-19342.917.41%
4-20346.05.05%
3-21348.00.77%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northwestern St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Mississippi (113.4)SECA90-76L0%0.0
11-19Louisiana Monroe (173.3)SBH64-80L0%0.0
11-22Arizona (26.8)P12A61-42L0%0.0
11-27Auburn (166.4)SECA119-81L0%0.0
12-1Arkansas (103.1)SECA117-78L0%0.0
12-8Baylor (25.4)B12A75-62L0%0.0
1-2Houston Baptist (205.7)SlndH73-99L0%0.0
1-4Sam Houston St. (188.2)SlndH79-94L0%0.0
1-9Incarnate Word (189.6)SlndA70-56L0%0.0
1-12Abilene Christian (318.3)SlndA87-72L0%0.0
1-16Lamar (336.2)SlndA86-82L0%0.0
1-19Texas A&M Corpus Chris (112.2)SlndH79-89L0%0.0
1-23McNeese St. (329.6)SlndA75-74L0%0.0
1-25Nicholls St. (324.7)SlndA80-88W100%0.0
1-30Southeastern Louisiana (337.4)SlndH91-76W100%0.0
2-2Central Arkansas (319.9)SlndH91-75W100%0.0
2-8Stephen F. Austin (96.4)SlndA83-72L0%0.0
2-13McNeese St. (329.6)SlndH0-063%3.6
2-15Central Arkansas (319.9)SlndH0-062%3.3
2-20New Orleans (312.3)SlndH0-057%1.9
2-22Nicholls St. (324.7)SlndH0-073%6.5
2-29Southeastern Louisiana (337.4)SlndA0-038%-3.4
3-3Stephen F. Austin (96.4)SlndH0-013%-12.5
3-5New Orleans (312.3)SlndA0-033%-4.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northwestern St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northwestern St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northwestern St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northwestern St.Slnd26.2126.3618.3124.94-16.61-13.22
Nicholls St.Slnd3.645.1419.0521.67-2.25-2.91
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd3.635.1415.0024.39-2.54-2.63
Central ArkansasSlnd3.455.1326.3230.89-1.63-1.96
New OrleansSlnd0.765.1227.7832.74-0.34-1.77
McNeese St.Slnd3.545.1212.5025.60-2.65-2.50
Stephen F. AustinSlnd3.605.0170.5974.101.482.42
LamarSlnd3.683.0626.3226.45-1.75-1.44
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd3.633.0675.0071.281.811.30
Sam Houston St.Slnd3.623.0542.1147.28-0.57-0.17
Incarnate WordSlnd3.523.0450.0050.070.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd3.613.0247.3747.84-0.19-0.13
Abilene ChristianSlnd3.703.0131.5832.29-1.36-1.07
MississippiSEC3.012.1960.8757.550.650.33
AuburnSEC3.002.1836.3633.22-0.82-0.73
BaylorB123.022.1672.7367.391.370.75
ArkansasSEC2.942.1547.8351.44-0.130.06
ArizonaP122.942.0878.2677.611.661.15
Louisiana MonroeSB2.942.0840.0044.43-0.59-0.23
Texas A&MSEC0.330.2875.0075.330.160.14
OklahomaB120.310.2786.9682.580.230.18
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.230.2457.8961.760.040.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.220.2290.4886.910.180.16
LSUSEC0.270.2262.5059.050.070.04
TCUB120.280.2245.8339.35-0.02-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.250.2059.0955.220.050.02
MissouriSEC0.250.2033.3330.27-0.08-0.08
Texas St.SB0.230.1936.8437.57-0.06-0.05
MassachusettsA100.130.1940.9139.26-0.02-0.04
Arizona St.P120.220.1954.1751.670.020.01
Arkansas St.SB0.210.1842.8639.23-0.03-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.250.1758.3359.960.040.03
TennesseeSEC0.190.1750.0048.130.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.180.1743.4843.76-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.080.1636.0034.92-0.02-0.05
Appalachian St.SB0.220.1526.0929.18-0.11-0.06
UCLAP120.150.1556.5253.270.020.01
CaliforniaP120.220.1565.2262.830.070.04
BradleyMVC0.120.1512.0011.96-0.09-0.11
Florida St.ACC0.140.1469.5764.900.050.04
Texas TechB120.200.1460.8755.300.040.02
ColoradoP120.130.1469.5765.310.050.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.200.1440.0038.97-0.04-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.130.1460.8755.970.030.02
FloridaSEC0.250.1466.6766.330.080.04
RiceCUSA0.230.1228.5729.66-0.10-0.05
UC RiversideBW0.220.1245.8341.65-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.150.1145.4554.16-0.010.01
UABCUSA0.150.1182.6179.390.090.07
UTSACUSA0.140.1113.6413.63-0.10-0.08
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.1125.0025.09-0.07-0.06
NebraskaB100.140.1152.0050.780.010.00
North TexasCUSA0.140.1133.3333.07-0.05-0.04
SMUAmer0.140.1186.9682.900.100.07
CanisiusMAAC0.140.1144.0045.35-0.02-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.140.1159.0961.310.020.02
HoustonAmer0.140.1170.8367.980.060.04
TexasB120.130.1166.6762.210.040.03
HawaiiBW0.130.1184.2181.660.090.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.1150.0054.190.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.130.1158.3360.690.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.130.1157.8956.090.020.01
Georgia TechACC0.130.1154.1751.980.010.00
MemphisAmer0.130.1158.3359.360.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.130.1161.9065.310.030.03
TroySB0.130.1123.8126.72-0.07-0.05
West VirginiaB120.130.1179.1778.060.080.06
Oklahoma St.B120.190.1045.8342.32-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.190.1058.3356.290.030.01
KentuckySEC0.190.1075.0072.630.090.05
South CarolinaSEC0.130.1086.9680.370.090.06
StanfordP120.120.1050.0046.530.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0847.6249.35-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.090.0879.1774.060.050.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.160.0847.8348.87-0.01-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0860.8757.160.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0850.0045.820.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0860.8756.360.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0856.0055.420.010.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0864.0062.090.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0831.8232.69-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.140.0740.0042.85-0.03-0.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0736.3638.93-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.070.0772.7367.630.030.03
RutgersB100.070.0721.7420.34-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.070.0766.6764.730.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.130.0763.6461.640.040.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.0765.2268.590.040.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0724.0025.67-0.04-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0772.0071.540.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0745.4547.54-0.01-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0769.5770.070.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.070.0733.3334.19-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0768.1871.310.030.03
Iowa St.B120.060.0770.8368.000.030.02
KansasB120.060.0782.6179.190.040.04
MercerSC0.130.0769.5769.040.050.03
OregonP120.130.0782.6179.250.080.04
Boise St.MWC0.120.0760.8760.530.030.01
USCP120.060.0778.2673.050.030.03
WashingtonP120.120.0762.5060.110.030.01
Washington St.P120.120.0736.3631.98-0.03-0.02
PurdueB100.090.0480.0077.960.050.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0442.1145.67-0.01-0.00
St. John'sBE0.090.0425.0023.45-0.04-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.049.0912.25-0.06-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0445.0046.11-0.01-0.00
LibertyBSth0.070.0434.7836.51-0.02-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0414.2915.45-0.05-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.070.0452.0048.860.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0431.8236.14-0.03-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0454.5552.540.010.00
DrakeMVC0.070.0420.8323.19-0.04-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0454.1750.990.010.00
MichiganB100.070.0470.8366.720.030.01
New HampshireAE0.070.0457.1453.980.010.00
OaklandHorz0.070.0468.0067.990.030.01
PortlandWCC0.070.0440.0038.51-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.070.0440.0042.12-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0473.9174.700.040.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0473.0872.640.030.02
UC IrvineBW0.070.0472.7371.660.030.02
UTEPCUSA0.070.0452.1751.940.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.070.0430.0034.55-0.03-0.01
ElonCAA0.070.0452.1750.420.000.00
FurmanSC0.070.0454.1754.080.010.00
WisconsinB100.070.0462.5056.960.020.01
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0486.9686.650.050.03
Kent St.MAC0.070.0465.2260.580.020.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0425.0027.23-0.04-0.02
Penn St.B100.070.0450.0046.760.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0360.0060.100.010.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0335.0038.52-0.02-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0371.4369.430.030.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.039.0917.14-0.05-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0338.1037.70-0.02-0.01
XavierBE0.060.0387.5081.860.050.02
AkronMAC0.060.0382.6181.130.040.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0323.8126.56-0.03-0.02
DaytonA100.060.0386.9682.150.050.02
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0375.0076.190.030.02
George MasonA100.060.0333.3333.70-0.02-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.060.0378.2676.880.030.02
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0345.4551.39-0.010.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0371.4368.750.030.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0365.2267.120.020.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0310.0013.14-0.05-0.02
Oregon St.P120.060.0361.9056.450.010.00
PacificWCC0.060.0325.0028.89-0.03-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.060.0372.0069.150.030.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0330.4331.21-0.02-0.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0370.8368.100.030.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0313.6415.80-0.04-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0365.2264.370.020.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0365.2259.750.020.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0352.1755.090.000.00
UtahP120.000.0370.8368.500.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.060.0341.6739.91-0.01-0.01