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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Northwestern St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:306.0
Current RPI:306
Expected SOS:325
Current SOS:325
Current Record:9-16
Expected Record:9-16
Current Conf Record:7-11
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-9
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC RPI:257
Expected OOC SOS:308



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-16306.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northwestern St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Texas A&M (92.0)SECA72-44L0%0.0
11-13Oklahoma (168.0)B12A97-61L0%0.0
11-26Missouri (257.0)SECA84-60L0%0.0
11-28Mississippi St. (150.0)SECA65-59L0%0.0
12-3UTEP (222.0)CUSAA67-79W100%0.0
12-17Louisiana Monroe (298.0)SBN68-64W100%0.0
12-19Rice (167.0)CUSAA100-93L0%0.0
12-31McNeese St. (315.0)SlndH72-79L0%0.0
1-5Incarnate Word (303.0)SlndA84-80L0%0.0
1-7Texas A&M Corpus Chris (158.0)SlndA99-82L0%0.0
1-12Nicholls St. (252.0)SlndH86-81W100%0.0
1-14Sam Houston St. (194.0)SlndH68-77L0%0.0
1-21McNeese St. (315.0)SlndA65-78W100%0.0
1-25Southeastern Louisiana (248.0)SlndA71-85W100%0.0
1-28Lamar (232.0)SlndA85-64L0%0.0
2-2Central Arkansas (313.0)SlndA107-97L0%0.0
2-4Stephen F. Austin (202.0)SlndH73-75L0%0.0
2-9Houston Baptist (175.0)SlndH69-86L0%0.0
2-11Abilene Christian (288.0)SlndA76-72L0%0.0
2-16Southeastern Louisiana (248.0)SlndH66-73L0%0.0
2-18Nicholls St. (252.0)SlndA78-80W100%0.0
2-22Lamar (232.0)SlndH68-88L0%0.0
2-25New Orleans (154.0)SlndH83-82W100%0.0
3-2Stephen F. Austin (202.0)SlndA67-72W100%0.0
3-4Central Arkansas (313.0)SlndH97-83W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northwestern St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northwestern St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northwestern St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northwestern St.Slnd26.2826.2840.5040.50-5.00-5.00
LamarSlnd4.974.9748.1548.15-0.18-0.18
Stephen F. AustinSlnd4.954.9551.8551.850.180.18
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd4.934.9346.4346.43-0.35-0.35
Central ArkansasSlnd4.904.9023.3323.33-2.61-2.61
Nicholls St.Slnd4.844.8440.0040.00-0.97-0.97
McNeese St.Slnd4.784.7816.6716.67-3.18-3.18
Sam Houston St.Slnd3.083.0855.1755.170.320.32
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd3.083.0859.2659.260.570.57
New OrleansSlnd3.063.0662.9662.960.790.79
Houston BaptistSlnd2.992.9948.0048.00-0.12-0.12
Incarnate WordSlnd2.922.9229.1729.17-1.22-1.22
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.912.9133.3333.33-0.97-0.97
RiceCUSA2.212.2163.3363.330.590.59
UTEPCUSA2.162.1646.6746.67-0.14-0.14
Texas A&MSEC2.132.1350.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC2.102.1048.3948.39-0.07-0.07
MissouriSEC2.102.1022.5822.58-1.15-1.15
Louisiana MonroeSB2.072.0723.3323.33-1.10-1.10
OklahomaB122.042.0433.3333.33-0.68-0.68
Southern MissCUSA0.260.2624.1424.14-0.14-0.14
ArkansasSEC0.260.2673.5373.530.120.12
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.250.2561.2961.290.060.06
Texas TechB120.250.2556.2556.250.030.03
TulaneAmer0.240.2419.3519.35-0.15-0.15
Texas St.SB0.210.2158.0658.060.030.03
UTSACUSA0.200.2038.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.200.2061.2961.290.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.200.2021.4321.43-0.11-0.11
KentuckySEC0.200.2085.2985.290.140.14
Louisiana TechCUSA0.200.2067.7467.740.070.07
AuburnSEC0.190.1956.2556.250.020.02
Little RockSB0.190.1943.3343.33-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.190.1932.2632.26-0.07-0.07
AlabamaSEC0.190.1957.5857.580.030.03
MississippiSEC0.190.1960.6160.610.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.160.1655.8855.880.020.02
MemphisAmer0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.1483.3383.330.090.09
TexasB120.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
UABCUSA0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
FloridaSEC0.130.1375.0075.000.060.06
South CarolinaSEC0.130.1367.7467.740.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
UCFAmer0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
TulsaAmer0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.100.1012.9012.90-0.07-0.07
SouthernSWAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.100.1077.4277.420.050.05
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.100.1017.2417.24-0.06-0.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1087.8887.880.070.07
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
TCUB120.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
West VirginiaB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Georgia St.SB0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0958.6258.620.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
SMUAmer0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
NorthwesternB100.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
SamfordSC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
LibertyBSth0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
USCP120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
CaliforniaP120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0717.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Iowa St.B120.060.0669.7069.700.030.03
KansasB120.060.0687.5087.500.050.05
Kansas St.B120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
ArizonaP120.060.0688.2488.240.050.05
Arizona St.P120.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
MichiganB100.060.0668.5768.570.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.040.0448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.040.0458.6258.620.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.040.0437.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.040.0434.3834.38-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.040.0454.5554.550.000.00
MarquetteBE0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.040.0431.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.040.0487.5087.500.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.040.0443.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.036.906.90-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
LehighPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01