Northwestern St.

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	78.0
Current RPI:	78
Expected SOS:	194
Current SOS:	194
Current Record:	19-8
Expected Record:	19-8
Current Conf Record:	17-3
Expected Conf Record:	17-3
Probability of Auto Bid:	100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	15-1
Current OOC Record:	2-5
Expected OOC Record:	2-5
Expected OOC RPI:	124
Expected OOC SOS:	18

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-8	78.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northwestern St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Campbell (289.0)	BSth	A	67-71	W	100%
11-20	Louisiana St. (86.0)	SEC	A	102-95	L	0%
11-26	Texas A&M (102.0)	SEC	A	78-65	L	0%
11-30	Oklahoma (39.0)	B12	A	69-65	L	0%
12-4	Louisiana Tech (53.0)	WAC	H	89-83	W	100%
12-29	Arkansas (89.0)	SEC	A	79-61	L	0%
1-3	McNeese St. (246.0)	Slnd	H	78-63	W	100%
1-5	Lamar (335.0)	Slnd	H	86-58	W	100%
1-7	Sam Houston St. (224.0)	Slnd	A	64-73	W	100%
1-10	Oral Roberts (151.0)	Slnd	A	80-74	L	0%
1-12	Central Arkansas (286.0)	Slnd	A	88-100	W	100%
1-17	Nicholls St. (296.0)	Slnd	H	78-93	L	0%
1-19	Southeastern Louisiana (227.0)	Slnd	H	103-68	W	100%
1-26	Stephen F. Austin (65.0)	Slnd	H	61-57	W	100%
1-31	Lamar (335.0)	Slnd	A	63-85	W	100%
2-3	McNeese St. (246.0)	Slnd	A	74-86	W	100%
2-7	Oral Roberts (151.0)	Slnd	H	85-73	W	100%
2-9	Central Arkansas (286.0)	Slnd	H	93-73	W	100%
2-14	Southeastern Louisiana (227.0)	Slnd	A	76-79	W	100%
2-16	Nicholls St. (296.0)	Slnd	A	79-84	W	100%
2-19	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (323.0)	Slnd	A	71-82	W	100%
2-23	Niagara (123.0)	MAAC	A	92-76	L	0%
3-2	Stephen F. Austin (65.0)	Slnd	A	64-63	L	0%
3-7	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (323.0)	Slnd	H	66-51	W	100%
3-9	Sam Houston St. (224.0)	Slnd	H	84-73	W	100%
3-15	Sam Houston St. (224.0)	Slnd	N	55-52	W	100%
3-16	Stephen F. Austin (65.0)	Slnd	N	66-68	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northwestern St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Northwestern St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Northwestern St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Northwestern St.	Slnd	26.67	26.67	76.86	76.86	14.33	14.33
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	6.80	6.80	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	6.74	6.74	91.67	91.67	5.62	5.62
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	5.05	5.05	40.74	40.74	-0.93	-0.93
McNeese St.	Slnd	5.03	5.03	42.31	42.31	-0.77	-0.77
Oral Roberts	Slnd	4.98	4.98	55.17	55.17	0.51	0.51
Central Arkansas	Slnd	4.93	4.93	42.31	42.31	-0.76	-0.76
Nicholls St.	Slnd	4.92	4.92	28.57	28.57	-2.11	-2.11
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	4.90	4.90	19.23	19.23	-3.02	-3.02
Lamar	Slnd	4.86	4.86	10.34	10.34	-3.85	-3.85
Texas A&M	SEC	2.20	2.20	53.12	53.12	0.14	0.14
Oklahoma	B12	2.14	2.14	63.33	63.33	0.57	0.57
Arkansas	SEC	2.06	2.06	58.06	58.06	0.33	0.33
Louisiana Tech	WAC	2.01	2.01	83.33	83.33	1.34	1.34
Louisiana St.	SEC	2.00	2.00	60.00	60.00	0.40	0.40
Campbell	BSth	1.85	1.85	37.93	37.93	-0.45	-0.45
Niagara	MAAC	1.85	1.85	58.06	58.06	0.30	0.30
Missouri	SEC	0.24	0.24	69.70	69.70	0.09	0.09
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.23	0.23	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.22	0.22	31.25	31.25	-0.08	-0.08
Florida	SEC	0.21	0.21	78.79	78.79	0.12	0.12
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.21	0.21	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.19	0.19	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.18	0.18	31.25	31.25	-0.07	-0.07
Mississippi	SEC	0.18	0.18	76.47	76.47	0.10	0.10
Texas St.	WAC	0.18	0.18	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Alabama	SEC	0.18	0.18	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Tulsa	CUSA	0.16	0.16	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.15	0.15	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Liberty	BSth	0.15	0.15	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Texas	B12	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.15	0.15	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.14	0.14	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.14	0.14	28.12	28.12	-0.06	-0.06
Toledo	MAC	0.13	0.13	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.13	0.13	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Denver	WAC	0.13	0.13	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.13	0.13	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Texas Tech	B12	0.13	0.13	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.12	0.12	14.81	14.81	-0.09	-0.09
North Texas	SB	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
New Orleans	ind	0.12	0.12	18.18	18.18	-0.08	-0.08
Iowa St.	B12	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.12	0.12	34.38	34.38	-0.04	-0.04
Baylor	B12	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.12	0.12	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
UC Irvine	BW	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.12	0.12	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Florida International	SB	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.10	0.10	0.00	0.00	-0.10	-0.10
Long Beach St.	BW	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.10	0.10	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.09	0.09	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Wisconsin	B10	0.09	0.09	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Longwood	BSth	0.09	0.09	19.35	19.35	-0.06	-0.06
Seattle	WAC	0.09	0.09	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.09	0.09	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Samford	SC	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.07	0.07	28.00	28.00	-0.03	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.07	0.07	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	93.75	93.75	0.05	0.05
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho	WAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Long Island	NEC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Pacific	BW	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Christian	B12	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.06	0.06	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01