Northwestern St.

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	217.0
Current RPI:	217
Expected SOS:	247
Current SOS:	247
Current Record:	13-16
Expected Record:	13-16
Current Conf Record:	8-9
Expected Conf Record:	8-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-4
Current OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC RPI:	142
Expected OOC SOS:	143

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-16	217.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northwestern St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	A	72-66	L	0%
11-17	Alabama St. (308.0)	SWAC	A	60-67	W	100%
11-19	Marshall (43.0)	CUSA	A	83-61	L	0%
11-21	Cincinnati (44.0)	BE	A	71-43	L	0%
11-25	Jacksonville St. (216.0)	OVC	H	66-61	W	100%
11-29	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	H	80-65	W	100%
12-2	Missouri (10.0)	B12	A	90-56	L	0%
12-6	Louisiana Tech (160.0)	WAC	A	94-93	L	0%
12-15	Louisiana Monroe (317.0)	SB	A	63-76	W	100%
12-22	Mississippi St. (75.0)	SEC	N	82-67	L	0%
12-31	Oklahoma (137.0)	B12	A	83-63	L	0%
1-7	Texas St. (287.0)	Slnd	H	83-68	W	100%
1-11	Nicholls St. (298.0)	Slnd	A	79-80	W	100%
1-14	Central Arkansas (321.0)	Slnd	H	73-77	L	0%
1-18	Texas San Antonio (196.0)	Slnd	A	80-62	L	0%
1-21	McNeese St. (174.0)	Slnd	A	61-64	W	100%
1-25	Lamar (108.0)	Slnd	H	74-62	W	100%
1-28	Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)	Slnd	H	55-38	W	100%
2-1	Central Arkansas (321.0)	Slnd	A	68-79	W	100%
2-4	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (319.0)	Slnd	H	82-68	W	100%
2-8	Lamar (108.0)	Slnd	A	85-66	L	0%
2-11	Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)	Slnd	A	66-61	L	0%
2-13	McNeese St. (174.0)	Slnd	H	61-70	L	0%
2-18	Campbell (206.0)	BSth	H	100-86	W	100%
2-22	Sam Houston St. (273.0)	Slnd	H	37-50	L	0%
2-25	Texas Arlington (111.0)	Slnd	A	79-70	L	0%
2-29	Nicholls St. (298.0)	Slnd	H	92-61	W	100%
3-3	Stephen F. Austin (202.0)	Slnd	A	62-52	L	0%
3-7	Lamar (108.0)	Slnd	N	76-69	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northwestern St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Northwestern St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Northwestern St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Northwestern St.	Slnd	26.32	26.32	47.97	47.97	-1.07	-1.07
Lamar	Slnd	5.95	5.95	65.52	65.52	1.85	1.85
McNeese St.	Slnd	4.34	4.34	48.15	48.15	-0.16	-0.16
Nicholls St.	Slnd	4.26	4.26	30.77	30.77	-1.64	-1.64
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	4.22	4.22	33.33	33.33	-1.41	-1.41
Central Arkansas	Slnd	4.19	4.19	20.83	20.83	-2.45	-2.45
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	3.54	3.54	46.43	46.43	-0.25	-0.25
Texas Arlington	Slnd	2.51	2.51	73.33	73.33	1.17	1.17
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	2.50	2.50	55.56	55.56	0.28	0.28
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	2.42	2.42	51.72	51.72	0.08	0.08
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	2.39	2.39	29.63	29.63	-0.97	-0.97
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	2.36	2.36	20.69	20.69	-1.38	-1.38
Texas St.	Slnd	2.35	2.35	36.00	36.00	-0.66	-0.66
Louisiana Monroe	SB	2.08	2.08	11.11	11.11	-1.62	-1.62
Louisiana Tech	WAC	2.03	2.03	48.39	48.39	-0.07	-0.07
Cincinnati	BE	1.84	1.84	69.70	69.70	0.72	0.72
Alabama St.	SWAC	1.84	1.84	35.71	35.71	-0.52	-0.52
Marshall	CUSA	1.81	1.81	59.38	59.38	0.34	0.34
Jacksonville St.	OVC	1.81	1.81	44.83	44.83	-0.19	-0.19
Oklahoma	B12	1.80	1.80	46.67	46.67	-0.12	-0.12
Missouri	B12	1.78	1.78	87.88	87.88	1.35	1.35
Mississippi St.	SEC	1.75	1.75	64.52	64.52	0.51	0.51
Campbell	BSth	1.72	1.72	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.38	0.38	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.32	0.32	39.39	39.39	-0.07	-0.07
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.30	0.30	6.90	6.90	-0.26	-0.26
Texas	B12	0.29	0.29	60.61	60.61	0.06	0.06
Texas A&M	B12	0.28	0.28	41.94	41.94	-0.05	-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.27	0.27	44.83	44.83	-0.03	-0.03
North Texas	SB	0.26	0.26	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.23	0.23	25.81	25.81	-0.11	-0.11
Western Kentucky	SB	0.21	0.21	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	SB	0.21	0.21	70.97	70.97	0.09	0.09
Tulsa	CUSA	0.20	0.20	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.19	0.19	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.19	0.19	78.79	78.79	0.11	0.11
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.18	0.18	25.93	25.93	-0.09	-0.09
Houston	CUSA	0.18	0.18	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.17	0.17	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.17	0.17	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.17	0.17	25.00	25.00	-0.08	-0.08
Kentucky	SEC	0.17	0.17	94.12	94.12	0.15	0.15
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.16	0.16	74.19	74.19	0.08	0.08
Utah St.	WAC	0.16	0.16	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.15	0.15	30.77	30.77	-0.06	-0.06
Florida International	SB	0.15	0.15	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.15	0.15	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.14	0.14	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Troy	SB	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.14	0.14	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.14	0.14	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.14	0.14	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Rice	CUSA	0.14	0.14	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	BE	0.13	0.13	74.29	74.29	0.06	0.06
IUPUI	Sum	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.12	0.12	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.12	0.12	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.11	0.11	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
High Point	BSth	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.11	0.11	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Iowa St.	B12	0.11	0.11	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Kansas	B12	0.11	0.11	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.11	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.10	0.10	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.09	0.09	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.09	0.09	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Georgia St.	CAA	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Samford	SC	0.09	0.09	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Fresno St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Notre Dame	BE	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Nevada	WAC	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Texas Christian	MWC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Syracuse	BE	0.08	0.08	93.94	93.94	0.07	0.07
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	19.23	19.23	-0.04	-0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	78.57	78.57	0.03	0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.06	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.06	0.06	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.05	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Belmont	ASun	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	11.11	11.11	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	96.43	96.43	0.03	0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota	GWC	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	6.45	6.45	-0.02	-0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01