live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Northwestern St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:158.0
Current RPI:158
Expected SOS:186
Current SOS:186
Current Record:13-14
Expected Record:13-14
Current Conf Record:11-7
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-3
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:198
Expected OOC SOS:54



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-14158.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northwestern St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Auburn (169.0)SECA92-111W100%0.0
11-16LSU (83.0)SECA88-74L0%0.0
11-21Louisiana Monroe (244.0)SBH80-84L0%0.0
11-27Louisiana Lafayette (90.0)SBA105-74L0%0.0
11-30Niagara (302.0)MAACH107-100W100%0.0
12-7Memphis (37.0)AmerA96-76L0%0.0
12-11Louisiana Tech (62.0)CUSAA93-71L0%0.0
12-18Baylor (30.0)B12A91-84L0%0.0
12-19UTEP (103.0)CUSAA84-74L0%0.0
1-2Sam Houston St. (112.0)SlndH104-107L0%0.0
1-4Lamar (344.0)SlndH99-85W100%0.0
1-9Texas A&M Corpus Chris (249.0)SlndA101-87L0%0.0
1-11Houston Baptist (341.0)SlndA98-97L0%0.0
1-16Stephen F. Austin (52.0)SlndH58-74L0%0.0
1-23Central Arkansas (328.0)SlndA68-76W100%0.0
1-25Oral Roberts (191.0)SlndA83-87W100%0.0
2-6McNeese St. (272.0)SlndH85-74W100%0.0
2-8Nicholls St. (262.0)SlndH86-73W100%0.0
2-13Sam Houston St. (112.0)SlndA67-64L0%0.0
2-15Lamar (344.0)SlndA67-87W100%0.0
2-22Stephen F. Austin (52.0)SlndA70-68L0%0.0
2-27Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndA83-88W100%0.0
3-1New Orleans (260.0)SlndA71-84W100%0.0
3-6Central Arkansas (328.0)SlndH119-102W100%0.0
3-8Oral Roberts (191.0)SlndH88-82W100%0.0
3-13Nicholls St. (262.0)SlndN88-72W100%0.0
3-14Stephen F. Austin (52.0)SlndN85-78L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northwestern St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northwestern St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northwestern St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northwestern St.Slnd26.4126.4153.7253.721.961.96
Stephen F. AustinSlnd6.416.4192.3192.315.425.42
Sam Houston St.Slnd4.694.6966.6766.671.561.56
Oral RobertsSlnd4.624.6248.1548.15-0.17-0.17
Nicholls St.Slnd4.524.5250.0050.000.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd4.504.5026.0926.09-2.15-2.15
LamarSlnd4.494.4911.5411.54-3.45-3.45
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.812.8132.0032.00-1.01-1.01
McNeese St.Slnd2.802.8026.9226.92-1.29-1.29
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.772.7751.8551.850.100.10
New OrleansSlnd2.752.7538.1038.10-0.66-0.66
Houston BaptistSlnd2.712.7111.5411.54-2.08-2.08
LSUSEC2.062.0658.0658.060.330.33
Louisiana TechCUSA2.062.0678.1278.121.161.16
Louisiana LafayetteSB2.012.0163.3363.330.540.54
Louisiana MonroeSB1.971.9732.0032.00-0.71-0.71
AuburnSEC1.951.9548.2848.28-0.07-0.07
MemphisAmer1.951.9570.0070.000.780.78
BaylorB121.951.9565.6265.620.610.61
UTEPCUSA1.921.9266.6766.670.640.64
NiagaraMAAC1.851.8521.8821.88-1.04-1.04
North TexasCUSA0.330.3344.8344.83-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.300.3056.6756.670.040.04
Texas St.SB0.290.2920.6920.69-0.17-0.17
TroySB0.280.2831.0331.03-0.10-0.10
UT ArlingtonSB0.230.2343.3343.33-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.210.2169.7069.700.080.08
Georgia St.SB0.200.2074.1974.190.090.09
Kansas St.B120.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
Texas TechB120.190.1943.7543.75-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.190.1922.2222.22-0.11-0.11
RiceCUSA0.190.1917.8617.86-0.12-0.12
Texas A&MSEC0.190.1953.1253.120.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.170.1728.5728.57-0.07-0.07
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.160.1625.8125.81-0.08-0.08
Arkansas Little RockSB0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
James MadisonCAA0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
TowsonCAA0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
SMUAmer0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
ArkansasSEC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
MarshallCUSA0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Southern MissCUSA0.150.1580.6580.650.090.09
TulsaCUSA0.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.150.1541.1841.18-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.150.1578.7978.790.090.09
KentuckySEC0.150.1570.5970.590.060.06
OklahomaB120.150.1571.8871.880.060.06
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
SamfordSC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
East CarolinaCUSA0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
FloridaSEC0.120.1294.1294.120.110.11
TennesseeSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.ASun0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
High PointBSth0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
MississippiSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
MissouriSEC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
ButlerBE0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleAmer0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
SienaMAAC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
TCUB120.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
MinnesotaB100.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
IUPUISum0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
George MasonA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0746.1546.15-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
ToledoMAC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
WisconsinB100.060.0678.7978.790.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
RutgersAmer0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
TulaneCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
West VirginiaB120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
HawaiiBW0.040.0462.0762.070.010.01
Ohio St.B100.040.0473.5373.530.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.040.0420.6920.69-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
DavidsonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00