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Through games of Jan 18, 2017.


Northwestern St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:301.0
Current RPI:325
Expected SOS:316
Current SOS:319
Current Record:3-9
Expected Record:8-17
Current Conf Record:1-4
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-9
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC RPI:261
Expected OOC SOS:316



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-11198.50.14%
13-12219.60.87%
12-13239.53.47%
11-14258.38.27%
10-15278.415.74%
9-16297.621.35%
8-17313.122.16%
7-18325.316.14%
6-19334.18.20%
5-20339.63.00%
4-21343.10.61%
3-22345.20.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northwestern St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Texas A&M (108.1)SECA72-44L0%0.0
11-13Oklahoma (116.9)B12A97-61L0%0.0
11-26Missouri (255.6)SECA84-60L0%0.0
11-28Mississippi St. (119.7)SECA65-59L0%0.0
12-3UTEP (325.0)CUSAA67-79W100%0.0
12-17Louisiana Monroe (274.8)SBN68-64W100%0.0
12-19Rice (145.0)CUSAA100-93L0%0.0
12-31McNeese St. (262.3)SlndH72-79L0%0.0
1-5Incarnate Word (297.5)SlndA84-80L0%0.0
1-7Texas A&M Corpus Chris (214.7)SlndA99-82L0%0.0
1-12Nicholls St. (253.6)SlndH86-81W100%0.0
1-14Sam Houston St. (165.6)SlndH68-77L0%0.0
1-21McNeese St. (262.3)SlndA0-043%-2.1
1-25Southeastern Louisiana (216.8)SlndA0-025%-7.4
1-28Lamar (250.0)SlndA0-032%-5.2
2-2Central Arkansas (282.5)SlndA0-043%-1.9
2-4Stephen F. Austin (211.8)SlndH0-038%-3.4
2-9Houston Baptist (199.5)SlndH0-046%-1.2
2-11Abilene Christian (287.9)SlndA0-037%-3.6
2-16Southeastern Louisiana (216.8)SlndH0-046%-1.2
2-18Nicholls St. (253.6)SlndA0-049%-0.4
2-22Lamar (250.0)SlndH0-053%0.9
2-25New Orleans (208.0)SlndH0-050%-0.1
3-2Stephen F. Austin (211.8)SlndA0-020%-9.6
3-4Central Arkansas (282.5)SlndH0-065%4.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northwestern St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northwestern St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northwestern St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northwestern St.Slnd26.6426.3430.0037.21-10.66-6.74
Central ArkansasSlnd0.454.9021.0527.89-0.26-2.17
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.444.8952.9454.690.030.46
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.724.8835.7147.51-0.21-0.24
Nicholls St.Slnd4.634.8838.4637.08-1.07-1.26
LamarSlnd0.164.8650.0048.950.00-0.10
McNeese St.Slnd4.314.8223.0829.61-2.32-1.96
New OrleansSlnd0.463.0346.1550.95-0.040.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd4.443.0141.6750.85-0.740.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.583.0030.7743.28-0.22-0.40
Sam Houston St.Slnd4.462.9757.1459.500.640.57
Incarnate WordSlnd4.452.9616.6728.11-2.96-1.30
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.122.9530.7735.85-0.05-0.83
RiceCUSA4.332.1960.0064.880.870.65
Texas A&MSEC4.452.1450.0049.340.00-0.03
UTEPCUSA4.292.1420.0024.89-2.57-1.07
Mississippi St.SEC4.422.1068.7556.871.660.29
MissouriSEC4.172.1025.0023.40-2.08-1.12
Louisiana MonroeSB4.172.0726.6729.44-1.94-0.85
OklahomaB124.172.0443.7539.29-0.52-0.44
ArkansasSEC0.510.2877.7870.240.280.11
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.430.2662.5062.590.110.07
Texas TechB120.560.2677.7865.390.310.08
TulaneAmer0.390.2522.2220.52-0.22-0.15
Southern MissCUSA0.250.2520.0019.59-0.15-0.15
UTSACUSA0.290.2243.7538.32-0.04-0.05
North TexasCUSA0.270.2126.6732.17-0.13-0.07
Oklahoma St.B120.160.2152.9450.580.010.00
KentuckySEC0.250.2188.8987.480.190.16
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.2162.5068.400.030.08
Little RockSB0.130.2056.2551.180.020.00
Texas St.SB0.310.1853.3345.980.02-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.250.1764.7157.630.070.03
AuburnSEC0.250.1766.6755.430.080.02
LSUSEC0.370.1752.9438.810.02-0.04
MississippiSEC0.000.1761.1155.050.000.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.320.1533.3333.41-0.11-0.05
MemphisAmer0.430.1572.2264.200.190.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.410.1488.2484.490.310.10
UABCUSA0.130.1458.8263.670.020.04
TexasB120.290.1438.8935.39-0.06-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.130.1364.7165.800.040.04
FloridaSEC0.000.1377.7874.870.000.07
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1382.3575.050.080.07
TennesseeSEC0.120.1347.0648.34-0.01-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1344.4442.68-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.130.1157.8957.960.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1161.1158.860.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.1158.8251.330.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.270.1160.0072.760.050.05
Oregon St.P120.120.1117.6514.78-0.08-0.08
UCFAmer0.270.1177.7867.080.150.04
SouthernSWAC0.140.1137.5051.09-0.030.00
BaylorB120.260.1094.1280.740.230.06
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1043.7543.58-0.02-0.01
FIUCUSA0.130.1012.5021.89-0.10-0.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.130.1021.4327.15-0.07-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.1012.5033.76-0.10-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.130.1061.1162.130.030.03
Georgia St.SB0.250.1053.3355.950.020.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.1047.3745.07-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1064.7158.470.040.02
West VirginiaB120.120.1083.3380.660.080.06
ChattanoogaSC0.130.1075.0074.710.070.05
Western MichiganMAC0.130.1031.2536.84-0.05-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.120.1031.2539.92-0.05-0.02
WisconsinB100.120.1083.3381.340.080.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0814.2928.30-0.00-0.03
NorthwesternB100.000.0878.9569.220.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.0868.4252.240.050.00
PurdueB100.150.0878.9576.920.090.04
SMUAmer0.150.0878.9576.710.090.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.150.0712.5024.39-0.11-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.150.0747.3734.56-0.01-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0742.1130.46-0.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.150.0789.4779.370.120.04
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0758.8254.710.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.076.6718.57-0.00-0.05
LibertyBSth0.000.0743.7549.88-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0726.6725.67-0.00-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0717.6535.46-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.150.0764.7159.910.040.01
San DiegoWCC0.150.0747.0640.39-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.000.0768.7567.580.000.03
USCP120.120.0784.2173.130.080.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0772.2265.740.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0752.9450.690.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0712.5020.00-0.00-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.130.0762.5060.120.030.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0731.2545.36-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0755.5659.970.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.0782.3582.800.080.05
ToledoMAC0.000.0752.9452.850.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0768.7570.400.000.03
ArizonaP120.250.0788.8983.340.190.04
Iowa St.B120.000.0764.7161.760.000.02
KansasB120.120.0794.4481.840.110.04
Kansas St.B120.120.0777.7862.340.070.02
TCUB120.120.0776.4763.600.060.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0650.0044.720.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0638.8942.63-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0684.2178.380.000.04
MichiganB100.000.0663.1658.030.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0627.7834.92-0.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.0468.4264.570.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.160.0461.1159.110.040.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.160.0450.0047.830.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0466.6761.460.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0453.3357.100.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0421.4325.92-0.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0452.9454.820.000.00
UNLVMWC0.160.0447.3743.66-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.160.0418.7527.04-0.10-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.160.0488.2487.500.120.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.0443.7543.90-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.000.0447.0633.42-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.140.0461.1146.850.03-0.00
IdahoBSky0.140.0435.7143.95-0.04-0.00
OhioMAC0.140.0466.6767.410.050.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.0452.6347.590.01-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.0427.7829.41-0.06-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0328.5731.52-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.130.0322.2235.41-0.07-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0343.7543.69-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.130.0350.0052.880.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.0322.2225.61-0.07-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.0317.6529.56-0.08-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.0325.0029.58-0.07-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.0355.5653.920.010.00
James MadisonCAA0.130.0327.7830.34-0.06-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.130.0329.4138.89-0.05-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.130.0352.6353.090.010.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.130.0317.6521.40-0.08-0.02
PittsburghACC0.130.0363.1651.540.030.00
SeattleWAC0.130.0340.0037.06-0.03-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0343.7541.39-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.0350.0066.230.000.01
TroySB0.000.0347.0648.16-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.130.0352.6360.250.010.01
VCUA100.130.0373.6870.590.060.01
Wake ForestACC0.130.0361.1155.630.030.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.036.2511.83-0.11-0.03
AmericanPat0.120.0327.7830.66-0.05-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.120.0362.5063.040.030.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.120.0337.5044.25-0.03-0.00
ClemsonACC0.120.0364.7161.030.040.01
DavidsonA100.120.0356.2555.630.020.00
DenverSum0.120.0357.8956.030.020.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.120.0375.0076.950.060.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.120.0343.7548.38-0.02-0.00
IllinoisB100.120.0361.1153.310.030.00
LehighPat0.120.0352.9463.350.010.01
LipscombASun0.120.0341.1847.64-0.02-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.120.0337.5034.43-0.03-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.0318.7535.76-0.08-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.120.0333.3342.27-0.04-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.120.0335.2939.29-0.04-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.120.0322.2230.01-0.07-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.0314.2929.36-0.09-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.120.0331.2542.02-0.05-0.01
UCLAP120.120.0394.7489.460.110.03
UMKCWAC0.120.0338.8939.97-0.03-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.120.0377.7862.330.070.01
Wichita St.MVC0.120.0378.9582.970.070.02
XavierBE0.120.0372.2267.700.050.01