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Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


Northwestern St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:203.6
Current RPI:217
Expected SOS:250
Current SOS:49
Current Record:0-3
Expected Record:12-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-5
Current OOC Record:0-3
Expected OOC Record:1-6
Expected OOC RPI:190
Expected OOC SOS:8



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-569.00.01%
19-672.30.06%
18-790.20.34%
17-8104.91.24%
16-9120.83.83%
15-10141.27.93%
14-11161.013.34%
13-12183.818.21%
12-13207.818.17%
11-14231.215.84%
10-15254.510.87%
9-16276.15.98%
8-17295.12.78%
7-18312.40.99%
6-19324.00.31%
5-20330.00.07%
4-21337.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northwestern St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Texas A&M (50.9)SECA109-68L0%0.0
11-23Oklahoma (39.3)B12A90-68L0%0.0
11-25Texas Tech (163.9)B12A75-64L0%0.0
12-2Louisiana Tech (75.6)CUSAH0-029%-6.5
12-9Louisiana Monroe (141.7)SBA0-029%-6.8
12-20Louisiana Lafayette (188.9)SBH0-056%1.9
12-28Arkansas (23.2)SECA0-04%-21.4
1-3Houston Baptist (327.0)SlndA0-070%6.2
1-5Sam Houston St. (152.4)SlndA0-027%-7.5
1-10Incarnate Word (209.0)SlndH0-065%4.7
1-13Abilene Christian (315.7)SlndH0-083%11.3
1-17Lamar (283.7)SlndH0-079%9.7
1-20Texas A&M Corpus Chris (242.2)SlndA0-044%-1.8
1-24McNeese St. (253.3)SlndH0-069%5.9
1-26Nicholls St. (290.3)SlndH0-080%10.0
1-31Southeastern Louisiana (292.0)SlndA0-057%2.1
2-3Central Arkansas (329.9)SlndA0-069%6.0
2-9Stephen F. Austin (111.0)SlndH0-038%-3.8
2-14McNeese St. (253.3)SlndA0-046%-1.2
2-16Central Arkansas (329.9)SlndH0-086%13.2
2-21New Orleans (276.7)SlndA0-054%1.3
2-23Nicholls St. (290.3)SlndA0-059%2.8
3-2Southeastern Louisiana (292.0)SlndH0-078%9.2
3-5Stephen F. Austin (111.0)SlndA0-018%-10.9
3-7New Orleans (276.7)SlndH0-076%8.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northwestern St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northwestern St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northwestern St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northwestern St.Slnd31.2526.380.0051.19-31.250.63
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.085.0020.0034.78-1.25-1.52
Nicholls St.Slnd0.004.980.0031.97-0.00-1.80
McNeese St.Slnd0.004.980.0046.59-0.00-0.34
New OrleansSlnd0.004.970.0037.10-0.00-1.28
Central ArkansasSlnd0.004.960.0022.25-0.00-2.76
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.004.810.0067.82-0.001.71
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.002.9850.0065.000.000.89
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.002.9633.3350.43-0.000.03
LamarSlnd0.002.9625.0037.03-0.00-0.77
Incarnate WordSlnd0.002.95100.0053.440.000.20
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.002.910.0031.47-0.00-1.08
Houston BaptistSlnd0.002.910.0023.82-0.00-1.52
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.002.1925.0052.02-0.000.09
Texas A&MSEC16.672.1566.6767.165.560.74
OklahomaB1216.672.1366.6763.615.560.58
Louisiana TechCUSA0.002.1280.0071.880.000.93
Louisiana MonroeSB0.002.0733.3357.37-0.000.31
Texas TechB1216.672.0766.6743.645.56-0.26
ArkansasSEC0.002.03100.0079.200.001.19
BaylorB120.000.33100.0070.110.000.13
TCUB120.000.30100.0061.120.000.07
TroySB0.000.300.0043.61-0.00-0.04
Texas St.SB0.000.2666.6746.630.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.260.0034.83-0.00-0.08
North TexasCUSA0.000.2575.0038.820.00-0.06
LSUSEC2.080.2560.0055.990.420.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.2266.6750.220.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.2175.0062.480.000.05
Oklahoma St.B120.000.20100.0061.400.000.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1960.0051.520.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.18100.0045.580.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.17100.0072.490.000.08
Kansas St.B120.000.1750.0046.630.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.1760.0037.550.00-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1725.0044.18-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.1740.0036.41-0.00-0.05
DenverSum0.000.1650.0060.810.000.03
TulsaAmer0.000.1560.0055.460.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1550.0027.510.00-0.07
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1550.0051.010.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.1560.0067.690.000.05
South AlabamaSB0.000.150.0039.18-0.00-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.140.0042.16-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC2.080.1460.0055.640.420.02
KansasB120.000.1466.6759.280.000.03
TexasB120.000.14100.0080.270.000.08
West VirginiaB120.000.14100.0069.720.000.05
FloridaSEC0.000.1450.0064.920.000.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1350.0036.120.00-0.04
IndianaB100.000.1280.0057.110.000.02
UCLAP122.080.1280.0063.411.250.03
RiceCUSA0.000.1133.3330.44-0.00-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.1166.6751.600.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1133.3338.74-0.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.1175.0053.300.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.1150.0073.640.000.05
UABCUSA0.000.1125.0040.45-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE2.080.10100.0060.972.080.02
UTSACUSA0.000.1033.3329.25-0.00-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1033.3359.02-0.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.1080.0058.430.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.1075.0052.920.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1050.0051.520.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.1050.0044.110.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0875.0049.940.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0840.0047.86-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.08100.0054.940.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0875.0066.610.000.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0840.0060.24-0.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.08100.0086.460.000.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0840.0046.02-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0866.6760.360.000.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.080.0024.69-0.00-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0850.0032.470.00-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0725.0051.07-0.000.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0750.0068.710.000.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.07100.0077.900.000.04
XavierBE0.000.07100.0077.810.000.04
SamfordSC0.000.0733.3335.00-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0740.0038.45-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0750.0065.300.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0750.0040.810.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.070.0035.63-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0720.0043.55-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0766.6753.550.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0750.0050.040.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0720.0034.26-0.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.07100.0088.520.000.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0766.6749.610.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0775.0055.330.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0766.6750.870.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0766.6739.850.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0766.6740.010.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0725.0026.31-0.00-0.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0733.3353.30-0.000.00
DaytonA102.080.0775.0071.151.040.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0760.0056.970.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.07100.0089.070.000.05
VanderbiltSEC0.000.07100.0053.810.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0483.3339.590.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0425.0037.52-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0450.0058.990.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0420.0042.29-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.040.0040.80-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0480.0062.960.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0450.0029.060.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0425.0033.19-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.04100.0054.340.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0480.0074.900.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0440.0032.41-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.04100.0061.350.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.040.0015.65-0.00-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0450.0045.290.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0475.0046.370.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.040.0038.82-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0475.0051.700.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.0480.0077.430.000.02
George MasonA100.000.0420.0021.73-0.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.04100.0055.210.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0425.0052.85-0.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0333.3345.47-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.000.0366.6759.500.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0053.110.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0316.6731.72-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0360.0067.390.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA2.080.0340.0053.46-0.420.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0350.0042.970.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0038.94-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.030.0023.00-0.00-0.02
HartfordAE0.000.0380.0051.800.000.00
Loyola MDPat2.080.0340.0031.26-0.42-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0350.0044.930.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0333.3354.15-0.000.00
Missouri St.MVC2.080.0350.0049.570.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0065.430.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0380.0074.520.000.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0022.89-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0035.41-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0380.0068.140.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0360.0050.320.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0325.0041.79-0.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0350.0040.550.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0062.99-0.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0050.770.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0325.0039.67-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0380.0079.380.000.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0375.0051.040.000.00