live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Feb 7, 2012.


UC Santa Barbara

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:147.1
Current RPI:138
Expected SOS:198
Current SOS:171
Current Record:10-8
Expected Record:15-10
Current Conf Record:7-3
Expected Conf Record:11-5
Probability of Auto Bid:14.81%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:131
Expected OOC SOS:30



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-8107.41.80%
16-9120.814.75%
15-10136.534.71%
14-11156.032.46%
13-12177.013.73%
12-13196.92.37%
11-14215.10.17%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Santa Barbara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Santa Clara (271.2)WCCH89-56W100%0.0
11-22Portland (215.0)WCCH83-69W100%0.0
11-26San Diego St. (26.1)MWCH75-76L0%0.0
11-30Nevada Las Vegas (9.9)MWCH88-94L0%0.0
12-13San Diego (211.6)WCCA61-65W100%0.0
12-16Washington (70.2)P12A87-80L0%0.0
12-19California (42.1)P12A70-50L0%0.0
12-22Brigham Young (45.6)WCCA89-75L0%0.0
1-2Cal Poly (194.2)BWA57-58W100%0.0
1-5Cal St. Fullerton (167.6)BWH77-64W100%0.0
1-12UC Riverside (255.7)BWA79-70L0%0.0
1-14UC Irvine (259.3)BWH74-56W100%0.0
1-19Cal St. Northridge (309.3)BWH69-61W100%0.0
1-21Long Beach St. (38.6)BWH48-71L0%0.0
1-26UC Davis (342.3)BWA59-86W100%0.0
1-28Pacific (264.2)BWA53-56W100%0.0
2-2Cal St. Northridge (309.3)BWA70-85W100%0.0
2-4Cal St. Fullerton (167.6)BWA99-86L0%0.0
2-11UC Riverside (255.7)BWH0-089%13.5
2-15UC Irvine (259.3)BWA0-066%4.4
2-18Utah St. (132.9)WACA0-037%-3.7
2-22Long Beach St. (38.6)BWA0-017%-10.5
2-25Cal Poly (194.2)BWH0-061%3.1
3-1Pacific (264.2)BWH0-084%10.9
3-3UC Davis (342.3)BWH0-097%20.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Santa Barbara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Santa Barbara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Santa Barbara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC Santa BarbaraBW26.4726.4758.1459.624.315.10
PacificBW3.605.0836.8439.92-0.95-1.02
UC IrvineBW3.655.0836.8436.71-0.96-1.35
Cal St. NorthridgeBW6.295.0823.5324.33-3.33-2.61
UC DavisBW3.605.060.005.59-3.60-4.49
Cal PolyBW3.675.0652.3859.520.170.96
Long Beach St.BW3.675.0570.0072.051.472.23
UC RiversideBW3.605.0540.0038.46-0.72-1.17
Cal St. FullertonBW6.175.0166.6768.052.061.81
Santa ClaraWCC3.302.3730.0027.32-1.32-1.07
San Diego St.MWC3.162.3585.0077.302.211.28
San DiegoWCC3.222.3235.0035.12-0.97-0.69
Brigham YoungWCC3.042.2573.9175.161.451.13
PortlandWCC3.092.2522.7322.56-1.69-1.24
CaliforniaP123.032.1873.9173.781.451.03
Nevada Las VegasMWC2.962.1781.8280.791.891.34
WashingtonP123.042.1468.1865.441.110.66
Utah St.WAC0.132.1150.0052.590.000.11
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.900.6647.8347.88-0.04-0.03
San Jose St.WAC0.450.4927.2726.96-0.21-0.23
Southern CaliforniaP120.520.4225.0025.08-0.26-0.21
HawaiiWAC0.410.3957.1453.020.060.02
PepperdineWCC0.400.3731.8233.75-0.14-0.12
San FranciscoWCC0.380.3656.5253.760.050.03
St. Mary'sWCC0.440.3690.9187.780.360.27
NevadaWAC0.370.3580.9576.420.230.18
Boise St.MWC0.400.3242.8641.08-0.06-0.06
GonzagaWCC0.310.2981.8281.500.200.18
Loyola MarymountWCC0.310.2959.0957.690.060.04
Fresno St.WAC0.130.2939.1344.46-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahSum0.200.2845.4544.27-0.02-0.03
StanfordP120.320.2869.5768.330.130.10
UCLAP120.250.2754.5556.780.020.04
Washington St.P120.310.2450.0048.170.00-0.01
Seattleind0.130.2422.2232.99-0.07-0.08
UtahP120.380.2418.1815.00-0.24-0.17
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.210.2240.9144.29-0.04-0.02
WyomingMWC0.200.2176.1970.710.100.09
IdahoWAC0.130.2150.0051.460.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.190.1881.8281.020.120.11
Weber St.BSky0.190.1780.0076.710.110.09
OregonP120.180.1769.5764.490.070.05
Montana St.BSky0.070.1545.0041.71-0.01-0.02
Houston BaptistGWC0.270.1425.0028.48-0.13-0.06
MontanaBSky0.190.1471.4373.990.080.07
Wichita St.MVC0.200.1482.6180.500.130.09
Air ForceMWC0.130.1447.3742.13-0.01-0.02
Texas ChristianMWC0.130.1457.1449.570.02-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.130.1466.6760.840.040.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.130.1430.0033.22-0.05-0.05
ArizonaP120.180.1366.6768.550.060.05
Oregon St.P120.120.1363.6463.170.030.03
VillanovaBE0.130.1145.8345.52-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.1131.8232.98-0.00-0.04
CreightonMVC0.070.1184.0082.620.040.07
North CarolinaACC0.130.1086.9683.300.090.07
Texas El PasoCUSA0.130.1043.4843.27-0.02-0.01
BryantNEC0.130.108.3310.84-0.11-0.08
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.1013.6416.23-0.04-0.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1023.8133.67-0.06-0.03
Arizona St.P120.120.1030.4331.40-0.05-0.04
ColoradoP120.120.1066.6762.690.040.02
DrakeMVC0.150.0852.1750.010.010.00
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0728.5734.11-0.03-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.0754.1754.760.010.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.070.0759.0957.270.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.140.0725.0023.73-0.07-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.140.0742.8645.93-0.02-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.0726.3229.64-0.07-0.03
Southern MississippiCUSA0.070.0785.7182.220.050.05
AuburnSEC0.070.0754.1747.950.01-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0730.4326.42-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.070.0778.2678.420.040.04
Kansas St.B120.070.0773.9168.410.030.03
LouisvilleBE0.070.0779.1774.200.040.03
PittsburghBE0.070.0762.5059.520.020.01
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.070.0757.1460.720.010.02
XavierA100.070.0765.2263.690.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0752.3853.290.000.00
BaylorB120.120.0790.9183.900.100.05
Florida AtlanticSB0.120.0736.3639.73-0.03-0.01
Georgia St.CAA0.120.0766.6769.710.040.03
St. LouisA100.120.0777.2777.700.070.04
DePaulBE0.060.0747.8342.19-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0752.1758.490.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0730.0031.40-0.00-0.03
WisconsinB100.120.0775.0074.010.060.03
Louisiana TechWAC0.000.0742.8643.52-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0769.5769.000.000.03
DenverSB0.060.0770.8372.240.020.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0421.0524.33-0.04-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0440.9138.38-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.070.0447.6248.01-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.070.0456.5253.940.010.00
South AlabamaSB0.070.0452.3852.880.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0444.4448.16-0.01-0.00
TulaneCUSA0.070.0461.9058.610.020.01
WagnerNEC0.070.0482.6184.580.040.03
Chicago St.GWC0.070.049.0912.82-0.05-0.03
ElonSC0.070.0452.3849.770.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.060.0496.0093.530.060.03
OhioMAC0.060.0481.8277.180.040.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0368.4266.510.020.01
Longwoodind0.060.0328.5725.79-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0335.0040.74-0.02-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.060.0356.5255.220.010.00
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0317.3919.76-0.04-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0327.7829.77-0.03-0.01
DukeACC0.060.0382.6179.930.040.02
IllinoisB100.060.0369.5761.840.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0371.4369.050.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.038.708.99-0.05-0.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0380.0076.670.040.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0378.2672.280.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0373.9175.470.030.02
St. Peter'sMAAC0.000.0320.8323.73-0.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0317.3920.75-0.00-0.02
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.000.0376.1975.980.000.02
Utah ValleyGWC0.000.0354.5557.710.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0332.0035.39-0.02-0.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0334.7832.05-0.02-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0345.4541.17-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0318.1823.34-0.04-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0344.4445.20-0.01-0.00
MissouriB120.060.0391.6787.920.050.02