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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


UC Santa Barbara

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:78.5
Current RPI:101
Expected SOS:112
Current SOS:13
Current Record:3-5
Expected Record:18-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-1
Current OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:96
Expected OOC SOS:13



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-525.50.11%
22-631.71.38%
21-739.75.07%
20-849.512.95%
19-960.819.63%
18-1074.721.77%
17-1190.118.14%
16-12107.311.64%
15-13125.35.92%
14-14143.92.38%
13-15163.20.76%
12-16182.70.19%
11-17214.60.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Santa Barbara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Kansas (6.8)B12A69-59L0%0.0
11-17Florida Gulf Coast (98.1)ASunA81-75L0%0.0
11-27Washington St. (211.9)P12N71-43W100%0.0
11-28Mercer (243.7)SCN65-60W100%0.0
11-29Colorado St. (33.0)MWCN63-65L0%0.0
12-4Seattle (283.0)WACH87-46W100%0.0
12-8SMU (26.6)AmerA80-73L0%0.0
12-11San Diego (92.1)WCCH65-79L0%0.0
12-22Oregon (106.6)P12A0-042%-2.3
12-30Oregon St. (128.3)P12A0-046%-1.2
1-2Vermont (178.6)AEH0-083%11.1
1-5Florida Gulf Coast (98.1)ASunH0-076%8.2
1-10Cal Poly (210.5)BWA0-070%6.2
1-15Cal St. Northridge (309.2)BWH0-096%21.0
1-17Long Beach St. (86.1)BWA0-048%-0.6
1-22UC Riverside (248.9)BWH0-091%16.0
1-24Cal St. Fullerton (267.3)BWH0-094%17.7
1-29UC Davis (129.4)BWA0-055%1.5
1-31UC Irvine (201.6)BWA0-063%3.9
2-7Hawaii (216.7)BWH0-089%14.2
2-12Long Beach St. (86.1)BWH0-075%7.8
2-14Cal St. Northridge (309.2)BWA0-086%12.6
2-19UC Riverside (248.9)BWA0-074%7.6
2-21Cal St. Fullerton (267.3)BWA0-079%9.4
2-26UC Davis (129.4)BWH0-080%9.9
2-28UC Irvine (201.6)BWH0-085%12.2
3-5Hawaii (216.7)BWA0-069%5.8
3-7Cal Poly (210.5)BWH0-089%14.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Santa Barbara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Santa Barbara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Santa Barbara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC Santa BarbaraBW27.5526.4638.2466.42-6.488.69
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.354.5418.1823.47-0.22-2.41
UC DavisBW0.004.5387.5070.850.001.89
Cal St. FullertonBW0.004.5136.3639.63-0.00-0.93
UC IrvineBW0.004.4937.5048.02-0.00-0.18
Long Beach St.BW0.004.4836.3651.57-0.000.14
UC RiversideBW0.004.4750.0045.330.00-0.42
HawaiiBW0.004.4666.6757.130.000.64
Cal PolyBW0.004.4637.5043.74-0.00-0.56
Florida Gulf CoastASun6.253.5775.0070.803.121.49
OregonP120.002.0370.0057.430.000.30
SeattleWAC6.251.9737.5045.58-1.56-0.17
Washington St.P126.251.9744.4429.10-0.69-0.82
Oregon St.P120.001.9077.7856.300.000.24
Colorado St.MWC6.601.82100.0077.466.601.00
MercerSC6.561.8250.0045.590.00-0.16
KansasB126.251.7988.8969.704.860.70
San DiegoWCC6.251.7950.0056.050.000.22
SMUAmer6.251.7970.0074.842.500.89
VermontAE0.001.7944.4459.20-0.000.33
UCLAP120.280.3766.6754.480.090.03
ArizonaP120.000.28100.0082.630.000.18
WashingtonP120.350.27100.0075.440.350.14
San Diego St.MWC0.280.2772.7372.580.130.12
San FranciscoWCC0.350.2650.0054.170.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.350.250.008.00-0.35-0.21
NevadaMWC0.000.2511.1125.48-0.00-0.12
USCP120.000.2460.0036.410.00-0.07
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.2342.8641.81-0.00-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.310.2244.4436.80-0.03-0.06
XavierBE0.280.2272.7367.590.130.08
UtahP120.310.2180.0080.520.190.13
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.2016.6733.39-0.00-0.07
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.2062.5058.080.000.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1927.2729.17-0.00-0.08
FurmanSC0.350.1922.2231.81-0.19-0.07
USC UpstateASun0.000.1963.6467.210.000.07
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1925.0023.40-0.00-0.10
GonzagaWCC0.600.1990.9190.540.490.15
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1916.6735.27-0.00-0.06
CaliforniaP120.000.1990.9169.030.000.07
PacificWCC0.660.1955.5638.270.07-0.04
BYUWCC0.000.1970.0068.340.000.07
PepperdineWCC0.000.1866.6755.670.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1633.3361.74-0.000.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.350.1633.3328.79-0.12-0.07
Portland St.BSky0.000.1550.0042.090.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.1554.5548.490.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.310.1566.6758.000.100.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1330.0038.57-0.00-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1336.3645.11-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1340.0043.04-0.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1310.0018.05-0.00-0.08
LipscombASun0.000.1322.2238.44-0.00-0.03
MaristMAAC0.350.139.0916.15-0.28-0.09
North FloridaASun0.000.1350.0057.820.000.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1333.3343.14-0.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.1370.0051.780.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.1310.0027.17-0.00-0.06
FIUCUSA0.350.1344.4450.41-0.040.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.1350.0055.890.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.1272.7362.220.000.03
SamfordSC0.000.1233.3330.28-0.00-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1233.3334.30-0.00-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.570.1255.5652.610.060.01
StanfordP120.000.1266.6758.320.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.12100.0084.930.000.08
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1266.6778.020.000.07
Kansas St.B120.000.1263.6440.190.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.1290.9179.980.000.07
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1033.3337.91-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1036.3646.72-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.310.1037.5052.01-0.080.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.310.1037.5056.46-0.080.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.1054.5548.260.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0970.0051.040.000.00
RiceCUSA0.660.0916.6726.98-0.44-0.04
TempleAmer0.000.0963.6456.430.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.280.0977.7872.890.160.04
WyomingMWC0.280.0980.0073.540.170.04
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0988.8963.020.000.02
TCUB120.310.09100.0067.700.310.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.0011.59-0.00-0.05
DelawareCAA0.000.070.008.56-0.00-0.06
IPFWSum0.000.0750.0054.190.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0770.0060.920.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0733.3340.63-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0720.0040.84-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0718.1837.71-0.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0733.3334.04-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.350.0775.0077.010.170.04
High PointBSth0.000.0766.6761.790.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0760.0069.200.000.03
MassachusettsA100.350.0754.5552.490.030.00
NebraskaB100.000.0766.6744.720.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.350.0742.8637.71-0.05-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.350.0770.0059.660.140.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.070.0034.33-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0755.5655.710.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.630.0760.0076.250.130.03
MontanaBSky0.660.0625.0052.35-0.330.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0614.2915.15-0.00-0.04
AlbanyAE0.000.0640.0055.01-0.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0011.24-0.00-0.05
HartfordAE0.000.0650.0050.620.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0616.6736.63-0.00-0.02
MaineAE0.000.0611.1120.80-0.00-0.04
New HampshireAE0.000.0650.0060.410.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8633.27-0.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3355.24-0.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0650.0050.490.000.00
UMBCAE0.000.0618.1825.30-0.00-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.350.0650.0046.690.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0644.4450.60-0.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0640.0049.39-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0670.0064.680.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0650.0058.070.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0671.4363.770.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0662.5041.790.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0660.0062.070.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0640.0041.32-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0614.2932.16-0.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0056.620.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0655.5635.900.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0620.0035.33-0.00-0.02
VMISC0.350.0633.3338.93-0.12-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0620.0040.93-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0677.7875.550.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0660.0057.890.000.01
MichiganB100.280.0650.0040.450.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.310.0655.5646.290.03-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8637.83-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.620.0633.3337.22-0.21-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.0620.0026.07-0.00-0.03
South DakotaSum0.000.0627.2738.30-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0688.8965.170.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0660.0058.120.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.620.0660.0071.280.120.03
UNLVMWC0.000.0666.6749.560.00-0.00
BaylorB120.000.0690.0073.240.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0690.0065.480.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.0670.0062.710.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0690.0055.360.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0690.9170.080.000.02
MinnesotaB100.350.0380.0067.830.210.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.350.0344.4455.37-0.040.00
Texas St.SB0.350.0350.0050.060.000.00
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5745.89-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0355.5662.150.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0385.7172.910.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0360.0043.160.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0360.0033.270.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0333.3349.54-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0312.5030.56-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0366.6761.820.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.280.0380.0072.200.170.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0350.0039.790.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.350.0318.1830.76-0.22-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0360.0034.160.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.280.030.0011.94-0.28-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.050.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.009.06-0.00-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.280.0318.1820.86-0.18-0.02
IndianaB100.280.0381.8263.330.180.01
LamarSlnd0.280.0314.2935.86-0.20-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0344.4437.40-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.039.0917.12-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.280.0350.0058.370.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.280.0320.0046.47-0.17-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0340.0044.08-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.280.0333.3341.02-0.09-0.01
Seton HallBE0.350.0390.0067.380.280.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.280.0340.0046.19-0.06-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0370.0061.320.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.280.0320.0052.97-0.170.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0388.8955.860.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0342.8649.51-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0014.00-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.310.0345.4555.13-0.030.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0340.0048.02-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.310.0362.5072.070.080.01
Idaho St.BSky0.310.0311.1128.88-0.24-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0375.0065.140.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0370.0052.600.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0363.6461.520.000.01
UTSACUSA0.310.0337.5035.74-0.08-0.01
VCUA100.000.0372.7375.740.000.02
FloridaSEC0.310.0363.6465.220.090.01
GeorgetownBE0.310.0370.0059.220.120.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0375.0058.160.000.00
KentuckySEC0.310.03100.0096.290.310.03
LafayettePat0.310.0366.6767.650.100.01
Michigan St.B100.310.0366.6767.300.100.01
Rhode IslandA100.310.0366.6773.310.100.01
RiderMAAC0.310.0350.0053.250.000.00