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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


UC Santa Barbara

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:269.5
Current RPI:266
Expected SOS:204
Current SOS:68
Current Record:0-5
Expected Record:9-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-7
Current OOC Record:0-5
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:242
Expected OOC SOS:19



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-9101.50.02%
17-10117.50.02%
16-11129.90.09%
15-12153.50.48%
14-13175.11.64%
13-14195.63.60%
12-15216.47.73%
11-16236.912.43%
10-17257.516.18%
9-18276.418.54%
8-19292.115.88%
7-20304.711.78%
6-21316.36.67%
5-22325.63.35%
4-23332.31.26%
3-24338.70.23%
2-25342.90.08%
1-26345.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Santa Barbara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Nebraska Omaha (145.1)SumH60-74L0%0.0
11-16San Francisco (158.3)WCCH63-75L0%0.0
11-19Cal St. Bakersfield (142.6)WACA77-70L0%0.0
11-22SMU (59.0)AmerA84-57L0%0.0
11-27USC (37.0)P12A96-72L0%0.0
12-11San Diego (236.9)WCCA0-042%-2.4
12-14UCLA (15.7)P12A0-01%-27.8
12-21Iona (106.3)MAACN0-025%-8.2
12-22Nevada (46.4)MWCN0-011%-14.6
12-27Cal St. Bakersfield (142.6)WACH0-037%-4.1
12-30Seattle (263.8)WACH0-063%4.0
1-4UC Davis (252.0)BWA0-037%-4.0
1-12UC Irvine (159.0)BWH0-040%-2.9
1-14Cal Poly (257.2)BWH0-058%2.4
1-19Long Beach St. (199.9)BWA0-028%-7.1
1-21UC Riverside (295.2)BWA0-046%-1.2
1-25Cal St. Northridge (259.5)BWH0-056%1.9
1-28Hawaii (273.6)BWA0-032%-5.5
2-2Cal St. Fullerton (322.2)BWH0-069%6.1
2-4UC Davis (252.0)BWH0-057%2.2
2-8UC Irvine (159.0)BWA0-022%-9.2
2-11Cal St. Northridge (259.5)BWA0-036%-4.3
2-16Hawaii (273.6)BWH0-052%0.8
2-18Long Beach St. (199.9)BWH0-047%-0.8
2-23UC Riverside (295.2)BWH0-066%5.1
3-2Cal St. Fullerton (322.2)BWA0-049%-0.2
3-4Cal Poly (257.2)BWA0-037%-3.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Santa Barbara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Santa Barbara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Santa Barbara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC Santa BarbaraBW28.3226.500.0033.27-28.32-8.87
Cal St. FullertonBW0.714.7428.5733.22-0.31-1.59
UC DavisBW0.004.6850.0045.460.00-0.43
Long Beach St.BW0.004.680.0036.54-0.00-1.26
UC IrvineBW0.004.6850.0052.990.000.28
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.004.6728.5742.03-0.00-0.74
UC RiversideBW0.004.660.0031.58-0.00-1.72
Cal PolyBW0.004.6442.8640.67-0.00-0.87
HawaiiBW0.004.6350.0049.850.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC10.563.8033.3358.78-3.520.67
UCLAP120.002.15100.0086.280.001.56
SeattleWAC0.002.0616.6739.60-0.00-0.43
San DiegoWCC0.622.0537.5030.27-0.16-0.81
Nebraska OmahaSum10.632.0233.3353.43-3.540.14
USCP1211.272.01100.0075.8811.271.04
NevadaMWC0.001.9877.7871.410.000.85
SMUAmer11.341.9562.5065.752.830.62
San FranciscoWCC10.001.9283.3351.846.670.07
IonaMAAC0.001.9157.1463.650.000.52
WashingtonP120.000.3857.1452.370.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.3775.0070.180.000.15
PortlandWCC0.000.3750.0054.070.000.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.3542.8658.58-0.000.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.3566.6757.300.000.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.3333.3332.35-0.00-0.12
PacificWCC0.000.3242.8646.14-0.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.2942.8633.23-0.00-0.10
ArizonaP120.710.2675.0068.370.360.09
CaliforniaP120.000.2585.7162.220.000.06
UMKCWAC0.000.2562.5052.330.000.01
BYUWCC0.620.2362.5066.900.160.08
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2333.3346.38-0.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.22100.0089.330.000.18
Chicago St.WAC0.000.2120.0022.75-0.00-0.12
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.2122.2221.23-0.00-0.12
Oregon St.P120.000.2125.0022.93-0.00-0.12
UNLVMWC0.000.2062.5043.800.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.710.2066.6740.030.24-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1925.0039.59-0.00-0.04
Arizona St.P120.000.1962.5040.460.00-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.000.1740.0043.41-0.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1712.5023.75-0.00-0.09
UtahP120.000.1775.0059.790.000.03
StanfordP120.000.1666.6758.060.000.03
Boise St.MWC0.560.1642.8656.04-0.080.02
DenverSum0.000.1442.8645.01-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.1425.0063.27-0.000.04
TroySB0.710.1442.8636.19-0.10-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1342.8645.56-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.1387.5081.960.000.08
GonzagaWCC0.000.13100.0091.920.000.11
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1357.1458.940.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.620.1366.6766.180.210.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.1362.5058.450.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC1.270.1250.0056.740.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.1257.1448.500.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.1242.8650.06-0.000.00
OregonP120.000.1275.0072.250.000.05
Washington St.P120.000.1242.8628.98-0.00-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.110.0023.69-0.00-0.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.710.1071.4355.160.310.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.100.0024.64-0.00-0.05
MontanaBSky0.620.1025.0048.10-0.31-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.560.1012.5037.99-0.42-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.710.1042.8645.44-0.10-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.710.100.0022.01-0.71-0.05
ColoradoP120.000.1075.0062.620.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.090.0019.67-0.00-0.06
OaklandHorz0.000.0985.7177.150.000.05
Weber St.BSky0.000.0916.6749.65-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0960.0069.120.000.04
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0971.4360.540.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0020.55-0.00-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0716.6730.34-0.00-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0760.0067.760.000.03
North DakotaBSky0.710.0733.3354.32-0.240.01
North FloridaASun0.710.0712.5034.79-0.54-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0716.6739.20-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0771.4354.560.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0750.0041.990.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0750.0043.390.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.710.0762.5051.790.180.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0712.5033.65-0.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0712.5029.15-0.00-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0750.0046.410.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0714.2938.26-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0737.5037.03-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0771.4359.470.000.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0771.4370.210.000.03
IUPUISum0.000.0737.5051.64-0.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.070.0022.31-0.00-0.04
South DakotaSum0.000.0750.0046.020.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0775.0061.490.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0725.0029.54-0.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.070.0016.68-0.00-0.04
UCFAmer0.000.0785.7176.240.000.03
AkronMAC0.000.0671.4368.980.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3379.850.000.04
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0052.760.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0628.5732.62-0.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0685.7170.060.000.03
PittsburghACC0.560.0675.0049.180.28-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.0650.0043.560.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0657.1471.940.000.03
KansasB120.000.0687.5075.860.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.0687.5075.590.000.03
TexasB120.000.0657.1438.680.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0675.0086.710.000.05
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0637.5044.39-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0687.5082.360.000.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3339.61-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0677.7849.900.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0671.4359.880.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0685.7178.280.000.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0625.0034.40-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0644.4434.65-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0675.0055.500.000.01
MichiganB100.560.0675.0066.460.280.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0675.0070.620.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0625.0035.09-0.00-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0628.5736.95-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0048.810.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0657.1450.420.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0650.0041.490.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0637.5052.01-0.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0675.0064.920.000.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0642.8653.19-0.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0612.5023.93-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0038.050.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0416.6729.81-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.040.0025.23-0.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.04100.0077.380.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0340.0054.54-0.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.710.030.0034.27-0.71-0.01
IowaB100.710.0337.5037.74-0.18-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.070.000.01
Kansas St.B120.710.0387.5059.310.540.01
LamarSlnd0.710.0350.0041.540.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.380.000.01
RiceCUSA0.710.0375.0071.470.360.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0314.2932.19-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.34-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3330.44-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0362.5056.520.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5729.95-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0360.0058.590.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.620.0340.0041.93-0.12-0.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0342.8661.11-0.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0342.8627.96-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0333.3352.21-0.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.0350.0041.990.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0316.6739.78-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0387.5065.250.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.560.0333.3352.11-0.190.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0387.5082.800.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0017.61-0.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0357.1444.890.00-0.00
NJITASun0.000.0350.0049.780.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.0383.3371.480.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0387.5068.610.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0357.1433.230.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0061.680.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.03-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0366.6754.050.000.00