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Through games of Nov 19, 2014.


UC Santa Barbara

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:143.0
Current RPI:221
Expected SOS:171
Current SOS:148
Current Record:0-2
Expected Record:14-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-3
Current OOC Record:0-2
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:123
Expected OOC SOS:15



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-431.50.04%
21-532.30.14%
20-643.00.65%
19-754.81.91%
18-869.25.23%
17-985.49.61%
16-10106.513.79%
15-11128.018.05%
14-12151.416.70%
13-13174.015.47%
12-14198.39.07%
11-15219.85.29%
10-16242.02.80%
9-17264.60.84%
8-18280.30.29%
7-19296.40.08%
6-20318.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Santa Barbara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Kansas (21.7)B12A69-59L0%0.0
11-17Florida Gulf Coast (107.1)ASunA81-75L0%0.0
11-27Washington St. (208.4)P12N0-062%3.5
12-4Seattle (221.7)WACH0-075%8.2
12-8SMU (23.5)AmerA0-014%-12.7
12-11San Diego (109.1)WCCH0-055%1.6
12-22Oregon (62.6)P12A0-021%-9.6
12-30Oregon St. (189.8)P12A0-043%-2.2
1-2Vermont (128.5)AEH0-064%4.2
1-5Florida Gulf Coast (107.1)ASunH0-059%2.8
1-10Cal Poly (235.9)BWA0-059%2.7
1-15Cal St. Northridge (219.2)BWH0-078%9.1
1-17Long Beach St. (125.0)BWA0-039%-3.2
1-22UC Riverside (315.4)BWH0-090%15.1
1-24Cal St. Fullerton (257.1)BWH0-080%10.0
1-29UC Davis (301.2)BWA0-069%5.9
1-31UC Irvine (123.0)BWA0-034%-5.1
2-7Hawaii (237.2)BWH0-074%7.8
2-12Long Beach St. (125.0)BWH0-063%4.0
2-14Cal St. Northridge (219.2)BWA0-056%1.9
2-19UC Riverside (315.4)BWA0-075%7.9
2-21Cal St. Fullerton (257.1)BWA0-059%2.9
2-26UC Davis (301.2)BWH0-086%13.1
2-28UC Irvine (123.0)BWH0-057%2.1
3-5Hawaii (237.2)BWA0-052%0.7
3-7Cal Poly (235.9)BWH0-080%9.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Santa Barbara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Santa Barbara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Santa Barbara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC Santa BarbaraBW37.5026.550.0057.15-37.503.80
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.004.9133.3346.30-0.00-0.36
UC DavisBW0.004.900.0037.23-0.00-1.25
Cal St. FullertonBW0.004.880.0040.57-0.00-0.92
UC IrvineBW0.004.8650.0064.720.001.43
UC RiversideBW0.004.840.0029.11-0.00-2.02
Long Beach St.BW0.004.840.0046.71-0.00-0.32
Cal PolyBW0.004.820.0034.92-0.00-1.46
HawaiiBW0.004.8266.6752.200.000.21
Florida Gulf CoastASun25.003.85100.0072.5525.001.73
OregonP120.002.20100.0064.460.000.64
Washington St.P120.002.130.0032.88-0.00-0.73
SeattleWAC0.002.1350.0054.730.000.20
Oregon St.P120.002.06100.0044.240.00-0.24
KansasB1225.001.920.0061.03-25.000.42
San DiegoWCC0.001.9266.6750.780.000.03
SMUAmer0.001.9250.0070.830.000.80
VermontAE0.001.9250.0067.270.000.66
UCLAP120.000.41100.0063.500.000.11
ArizonaP120.000.31100.0072.920.000.14
USCP120.000.2750.0037.740.00-0.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.2550.0046.500.00-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.2450.0047.010.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.24100.0057.750.000.04
San Diego St.MWC0.000.24100.0078.250.000.14
UtahP120.000.2450.0063.990.000.07
San FranciscoWCC0.000.22100.0059.900.000.04
USC UpstateASun0.000.22100.0051.970.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.220.0033.89-0.00-0.07
BYUWCC0.000.22100.0067.570.000.08
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.22100.0068.320.000.08
GonzagaWCC0.000.21100.0088.090.000.16
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2150.0033.140.00-0.07
CaliforniaP120.000.21100.0059.680.000.04
NevadaMWC0.000.21100.0050.990.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.210.0019.78-0.00-0.13
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.210.0040.35-0.00-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.000.20100.0054.330.000.02
XavierBE0.000.18100.0069.810.000.07
Arizona St.P120.000.17100.0055.300.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.17100.0054.600.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.150.0024.69-0.00-0.08
LipscombASun0.000.150.0041.18-0.00-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1533.3339.11-0.00-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.15100.0058.110.000.02
StetsonASun0.000.150.0032.28-0.00-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.000.150.0027.16-0.00-0.07
North FloridaASun0.000.150.0046.40-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.1550.0024.640.00-0.08
Fresno St.MWC0.000.150.0044.97-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1533.3364.23-0.000.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1550.0042.910.00-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.14100.0044.320.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1450.0055.680.000.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.140.0038.23-0.00-0.03
PacificWCC0.000.1450.0028.760.00-0.06
ColoradoP120.000.14100.0070.250.000.06
StanfordP120.000.14100.0061.600.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.13100.0062.480.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.13100.0078.370.000.08
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.130.0066.66-0.000.04
TexasB120.000.13100.0069.850.000.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.130.0053.86-0.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1150.0043.320.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.11100.0050.590.000.00
PortlandWCC0.000.11100.0049.360.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.10100.0057.050.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.10100.0059.850.000.02
TCUB120.000.10100.0054.080.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.10100.0052.320.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.10100.0057.520.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0850.0058.340.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.080.0042.30-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.08100.0062.520.000.02
OhioMAC6.250.0850.0055.890.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.080.0051.45-0.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0833.3337.15-0.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.000.08100.0059.650.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.08100.0053.420.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.080.0048.17-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.0023.67-0.00-0.04
DelawareCAA0.000.070.0042.59-0.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.07100.0064.670.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.07100.0069.180.000.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.07100.0028.530.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0750.0059.230.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0750.0044.100.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.070.0025.06-0.00-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.070.0047.61-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0750.0052.630.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.07100.0062.130.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.070.0031.35-0.00-0.03
AlbanyAE0.000.0750.0061.920.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.070.0036.33-0.00-0.02
HartfordAE0.000.0766.6741.760.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.070.0027.02-0.00-0.03
New HampshireAE0.000.070.0036.73-0.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.070.0039.06-0.00-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0750.0055.280.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.07100.0054.470.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0750.0063.480.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.07100.0066.300.000.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.070.0029.73-0.00-0.03
UMBCAE0.000.070.0035.56-0.00-0.02
MaineAE0.000.070.0023.08-0.00-0.04
BaylorB120.000.07100.0070.300.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.07100.0063.940.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.070.0023.96-0.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.07100.0065.300.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.0750.0060.110.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0733.3331.90-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.070.0035.74-0.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.0750.0046.310.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.000.07100.0065.510.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0750.0053.390.000.00
MichiganB100.000.07100.0070.350.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0066.070.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.06100.0073.010.000.03
HoustonAmer0.000.06100.0065.500.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.060.0065.23-0.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.06100.0042.400.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0666.6757.410.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0046.050.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0450.0064.150.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.040.0050.94-0.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0450.0036.560.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.04100.0056.290.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.04100.0066.580.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.040.0020.22-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.040.0028.09-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.040.0043.69-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.030.0049.65-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.03100.0057.900.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0034.89-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0040.670.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0016.45-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.030.0066.63-0.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.030.0033.85-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0039.790.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0023.33-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0350.0056.910.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0350.0029.980.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0333.3334.65-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.03100.0068.650.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0333.3359.12-0.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0072.000.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.030.0029.08-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.030.0042.02-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.030.0054.42-0.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0028.57-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0049.82-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0350.0070.050.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0066.640.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0062.310.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0059.950.000.01
KentuckySEC6.250.03100.0087.646.250.02
LafayettePat0.000.0366.6763.540.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0350.0052.110.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0054.620.000.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0050.670.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0350.0063.090.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.03100.0056.650.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0075.270.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.030.0034.49-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0350.0041.170.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.03100.0058.740.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.030.0034.89-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.030.0050.40-0.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0039.95-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.030.0031.14-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0054.220.000.00