UC Santa Barbara

Conference:	BW
Expected RPI:	147.1
Current RPI:	138
Expected SOS:	198
Current SOS:	171
Current Record:	10-8
Expected Record:	15-10
Current Conf Record:	7-3
Expected Conf Record:	11-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	14.81%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-2
Current OOC Record:	3-5
Expected OOC Record:	3-6
Expected OOC RPI:	131
Expected OOC SOS:	30

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-8	107.4	1.80%
16-9	120.8	14.75%
15-10	136.5	34.71%
14-11	156.0	32.46%
13-12	177.0	13.73%
12-13	196.9	2.37%
11-14	215.1	0.17%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Santa Barbara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-15	Santa Clara (271.2)	WCC	H	89-56	W	100%	0.0
11-22	Portland (215.0)	WCC	H	83-69	W	100%	0.0
11-26	San Diego St. (26.1)	MWC	H	75-76	L	0%	0.0
11-30	Nevada Las Vegas (9.9)	MWC	H	88-94	L	0%	0.0
12-13	San Diego (211.6)	WCC	A	61-65	W	100%	0.0
12-16	Washington (70.2)	P12	A	87-80	L	0%	0.0
12-19	California (42.1)	P12	A	70-50	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Brigham Young (45.6)	WCC	A	89-75	L	0%	0.0
1-2	Cal Poly (194.2)	BW	A	57-58	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Cal St. Fullerton (167.6)	BW	H	77-64	W	100%	0.0
1-12	UC Riverside (255.7)	BW	A	79-70	L	0%	0.0
1-14	UC Irvine (259.3)	BW	H	74-56	W	100%	0.0
1-19	Cal St. Northridge (309.3)	BW	H	69-61	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Long Beach St. (38.6)	BW	H	48-71	L	0%	0.0
1-26	UC Davis (342.3)	BW	A	59-86	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Pacific (264.2)	BW	A	53-56	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Cal St. Northridge (309.3)	BW	A	70-85	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Cal St. Fullerton (167.6)	BW	A	99-86	L	0%	0.0
2-11	UC Riverside (255.7)	BW	H	0-0		89%	13.5
2-15	UC Irvine (259.3)	BW	A	0-0		66%	4.4
2-18	Utah St. (132.9)	WAC	A	0-0		37%	-3.7
2-22	Long Beach St. (38.6)	BW	A	0-0		17%	-10.5
2-25	Cal Poly (194.2)	BW	H	0-0		61%	3.1
3-1	Pacific (264.2)	BW	H	0-0		84%	10.9
3-3	UC Davis (342.3)	BW	H	0-0		97%	20.1

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Santa Barbara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UC Santa Barbara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UC Santa Barbara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UC Santa Barbara	BW	26.47	26.47	58.14	59.62	4.31	5.10
Pacific	BW	3.60	5.08	36.84	39.92	-0.95	-1.02
UC Irvine	BW	3.65	5.08	36.84	36.71	-0.96	-1.35
Cal St. Northridge	BW	6.29	5.08	23.53	24.33	-3.33	-2.61
UC Davis	BW	3.60	5.06	0.00	5.59	-3.60	-4.49
Cal Poly	BW	3.67	5.06	52.38	59.52	0.17	0.96
Long Beach St.	BW	3.67	5.05	70.00	72.05	1.47	2.23
UC Riverside	BW	3.60	5.05	40.00	38.46	-0.72	-1.17
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	6.17	5.01	66.67	68.05	2.06	1.81
Santa Clara	WCC	3.30	2.37	30.00	27.32	-1.32	-1.07
San Diego St.	MWC	3.16	2.35	85.00	77.30	2.21	1.28
San Diego	WCC	3.22	2.32	35.00	35.12	-0.97	-0.69
Brigham Young	WCC	3.04	2.25	73.91	75.16	1.45	1.13
Portland	WCC	3.09	2.25	22.73	22.56	-1.69	-1.24
California	P12	3.03	2.18	73.91	73.78	1.45	1.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	2.96	2.17	81.82	80.79	1.89	1.34
Washington	P12	3.04	2.14	68.18	65.44	1.11	0.66
Utah St.	WAC	0.13	2.11	50.00	52.59	0.00	0.11
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.90	0.66	47.83	47.88	-0.04	-0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.45	0.49	27.27	26.96	-0.21	-0.23
Southern California	P12	0.52	0.42	25.00	25.08	-0.26	-0.21
Hawaii	WAC	0.41	0.39	57.14	53.02	0.06	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.40	0.37	31.82	33.75	-0.14	-0.12
San Francisco	WCC	0.38	0.36	56.52	53.76	0.05	0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.44	0.36	90.91	87.78	0.36	0.27
Nevada	WAC	0.37	0.35	80.95	76.42	0.23	0.18
Boise St.	MWC	0.40	0.32	42.86	41.08	-0.06	-0.06
Gonzaga	WCC	0.31	0.29	81.82	81.50	0.20	0.18
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.31	0.29	59.09	57.69	0.06	0.04
Fresno St.	WAC	0.13	0.29	39.13	44.46	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.20	0.28	45.45	44.27	-0.02	-0.03
Stanford	P12	0.32	0.28	69.57	68.33	0.13	0.10
UCLA	P12	0.25	0.27	54.55	56.78	0.02	0.04
Washington St.	P12	0.31	0.24	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.01
Seattle	ind	0.13	0.24	22.22	32.99	-0.07	-0.08
Utah	P12	0.38	0.24	18.18	15.00	-0.24	-0.17
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.21	0.22	40.91	44.29	-0.04	-0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.20	0.21	76.19	70.71	0.10	0.09
Idaho	WAC	0.13	0.21	50.00	51.46	0.00	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.19	0.18	81.82	81.02	0.12	0.11
Weber St.	BSky	0.19	0.17	80.00	76.71	0.11	0.09
Oregon	P12	0.18	0.17	69.57	64.49	0.07	0.05
Montana St.	BSky	0.07	0.15	45.00	41.71	-0.01	-0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.27	0.14	25.00	28.48	-0.13	-0.06
Montana	BSky	0.19	0.14	71.43	73.99	0.08	0.07
Wichita St.	MVC	0.20	0.14	82.61	80.50	0.13	0.09
Air Force	MWC	0.13	0.14	47.37	42.13	-0.01	-0.02
Texas Christian	MWC	0.13	0.14	57.14	49.57	0.02	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.13	0.14	66.67	60.84	0.04	0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.13	0.14	30.00	33.22	-0.05	-0.05
Arizona	P12	0.18	0.13	66.67	68.55	0.06	0.05
Oregon St.	P12	0.12	0.13	63.64	63.17	0.03	0.03
Villanova	BE	0.13	0.11	45.83	45.52	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.00	0.11	31.82	32.98	-0.00	-0.04
Creighton	MVC	0.07	0.11	84.00	82.62	0.04	0.07
North Carolina	ACC	0.13	0.10	86.96	83.30	0.09	0.07
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.13	0.10	43.48	43.27	-0.02	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.13	0.10	8.33	10.84	-0.11	-0.08
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.10	13.64	16.23	-0.04	-0.07
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.12	0.10	23.81	33.67	-0.06	-0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.12	0.10	30.43	31.40	-0.05	-0.04
Colorado	P12	0.12	0.10	66.67	62.69	0.04	0.02
Drake	MVC	0.15	0.08	52.17	50.01	0.01	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	28.57	34.11	-0.03	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.14	0.07	54.17	54.76	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	59.09	57.27	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.14	0.07	25.00	23.73	-0.07	-0.04
Portland St.	BSky	0.14	0.07	42.86	45.93	-0.02	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.14	0.07	26.32	29.64	-0.07	-0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.07	0.07	85.71	82.22	0.05	0.05
Auburn	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.17	47.95	0.01	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.07	0.07	30.43	26.42	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas	B12	0.07	0.07	78.26	78.42	0.04	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.07	0.07	73.91	68.41	0.03	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.07	0.07	79.17	74.20	0.04	0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.07	0.07	62.50	59.52	0.02	0.01
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.07	0.07	57.14	60.72	0.01	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.07	0.07	65.22	63.69	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	52.38	53.29	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.12	0.07	90.91	83.90	0.10	0.05
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.12	0.07	36.36	39.73	-0.03	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.12	0.07	66.67	69.71	0.04	0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.12	0.07	77.27	77.70	0.07	0.04
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.07	47.83	42.19	-0.00	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.07	52.17	58.49	0.00	0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.00	0.07	30.00	31.40	-0.00	-0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.12	0.07	75.00	74.01	0.06	0.03
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.00	0.07	42.86	43.52	-0.00	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.00	0.07	69.57	69.00	0.00	0.03
Denver	SB	0.06	0.07	70.83	72.24	0.02	0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.07	0.04	21.05	24.33	-0.04	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.04	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.07	0.04	47.62	48.01	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.07	0.04	56.52	53.94	0.01	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.07	0.04	52.38	52.88	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.07	0.04	44.44	48.16	-0.01	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.07	0.04	61.90	58.61	0.02	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.07	0.04	82.61	84.58	0.04	0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.07	0.04	9.09	12.82	-0.05	-0.03
Elon	SC	0.07	0.04	52.38	49.77	0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.04	96.00	93.53	0.06	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.04	81.82	77.18	0.04	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.03	68.42	66.51	0.02	0.01
Longwood	ind	0.06	0.03	28.57	25.79	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.03	35.00	40.74	-0.02	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.03	56.52	55.22	0.01	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.03	17.39	19.76	-0.04	-0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.03	27.78	29.77	-0.03	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.03	82.61	79.93	0.04	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.03	69.57	61.84	0.02	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.00	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.00	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.06	0.03	8.70	8.99	-0.05	-0.03
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.03	80.00	76.67	0.04	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.00	0.03	78.26	72.28	0.00	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.03	73.91	75.47	0.03	0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.00	0.03	20.83	23.73	-0.00	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.00	0.03	17.39	20.75	-0.00	-0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.00	0.03	76.19	75.98	0.00	0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.00	0.03	54.55	57.71	0.00	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.03	34.78	32.05	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.03	45.45	41.17	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.03	18.18	23.34	-0.04	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.03	44.44	45.20	-0.01	-0.00
Missouri	B12	0.06	0.03	91.67	87.92	0.05	0.02