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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


UC Santa Barbara

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:107.7
Current RPI:98
Expected SOS:267
Current SOS:251
Current Record:12-5
Expected Record:19-9
Current Conf Record:3-2
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:56
Expected OOC SOS:228



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-559.11.19%
22-668.86.86%
21-781.417.19%
20-896.826.02%
19-9114.924.62%
18-10134.815.83%
17-11156.96.27%
16-12176.21.60%
15-13194.90.33%
14-14210.80.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Santa Barbara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11North Dakota St. (167.4)SumH85-66W100%0.0
11-15Pittsburgh (187.4)ACCA70-62L0%0.0
11-17Texas A&M (29.6)SECA84-65L0%0.0
11-20Pepperdine (307.7)WCCA84-92W100%0.0
11-21Montana (98.3)BSkyN80-73W100%0.0
11-24Prairie View A&M (267.8)SWACH69-66W100%0.0
11-28San Francisco (171.9)WCCA72-79W100%0.0
12-2San Diego (141.5)WCCH67-57W100%0.0
12-5Nebraska Omaha (250.1)SumH77-70W100%0.0
12-9Montana St. (220.8)BSkyA69-91W100%0.0
12-17USC (34.7)P12A98-87L0%0.0
12-23Sacramento St. (279.5)BSkyA72-82W100%0.0
1-4Cal Poly (282.9)BWA80-79L0%0.0
1-6UC Riverside (301.7)BWH65-57W100%0.0
1-13Hawaii (161.9)BWA77-76L0%0.0
1-17Cal St. Fullerton (160.3)BWH83-64W100%0.0
1-20UC Irvine (176.3)BWH70-58W100%0.0
1-25Cal St. Fullerton (160.3)BWA0-054%1.1
1-27UC Riverside (301.7)BWA0-072%6.6
2-1Hawaii (161.9)BWH0-072%6.3
2-3Cal St. Northridge (335.2)BWH0-093%16.1
2-8UC Davis (106.7)BWA0-042%-2.3
2-15Long Beach St. (190.9)BWA0-058%2.1
2-17UC Davis (106.7)BWH0-064%4.1
2-22UC Irvine (176.3)BWA0-049%-0.4
2-24Cal St. Northridge (335.2)BWA0-081%9.7
3-1Long Beach St. (190.9)BWH0-078%8.5
3-3Cal Poly (282.9)BWH0-088%13.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Santa Barbara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Santa Barbara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Santa Barbara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC Santa BarbaraBW26.3626.3878.2675.3214.9013.36
Long Beach St.BW0.494.5340.0044.14-0.10-0.53
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.514.5217.6519.76-0.33-2.74
UC RiversideBW3.204.5218.7524.64-2.00-2.30
UC DavisBW0.504.5258.8263.630.091.23
Cal St. FullertonBW3.344.5160.0059.640.670.87
UC IrvineBW3.214.5031.5840.94-1.18-0.82
Cal PolyBW3.284.4918.7526.07-2.05-2.15
HawaiiBW3.114.4966.6763.971.041.25
Sacramento St.BSky3.272.1417.6525.33-2.12-1.05
MontanaBSky3.342.1275.0075.861.671.10
PepperdineWCC3.422.1211.1118.99-2.66-1.32
San FranciscoWCC3.262.0652.6350.420.170.02
Montana St.BSky3.261.9752.9449.360.19-0.03
USCP123.191.9270.0067.231.280.66
Nebraska OmahaSum3.101.9126.3229.05-1.47-0.80
San DiegoWCC3.091.9166.6759.601.030.37
Prairie View A&MSWAC3.111.8822.2240.80-1.73-0.35
North Dakota St.Sum3.011.8847.0652.25-0.180.08
Texas A&MSEC3.171.8766.6762.761.060.48
PittsburghACC3.031.8236.8428.57-0.80-0.78
Loyola MarymountWCC0.330.3827.7829.10-0.15-0.16
PacificWCC0.240.3745.0044.47-0.02-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.400.3490.4888.960.330.27
Utah ValleyWAC0.360.3366.6766.020.120.11
CaliforniaP120.330.3236.8431.12-0.09-0.12
Northern ColoradoBSky0.250.3158.8257.140.040.04
North DakotaBSky0.420.2929.4134.76-0.17-0.09
PortlandWCC0.400.2827.7827.28-0.18-0.13
Santa ClaraWCC0.310.2833.3332.94-0.10-0.09
Idaho St.BSky0.080.2543.7540.93-0.01-0.05
Portland St.BSky0.340.2558.8263.210.060.07
IdahoBSky0.240.2564.7166.850.070.08
Northern ArizonaBSky0.320.2511.1115.29-0.25-0.17
Southern UtahBSky0.250.2537.5033.78-0.06-0.08
StanfordP120.320.2455.0050.370.030.00
DenverSum0.310.2233.3336.48-0.10-0.06
NevadaMWC0.240.2285.7182.090.170.14
Fresno St.MWC0.170.2266.6763.420.060.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.160.2238.8946.05-0.03-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.320.1930.0032.52-0.13-0.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.230.1972.2272.980.100.09
BYUWCC0.230.1880.9576.240.140.10
GonzagaWCC0.150.1880.9583.260.090.12
Oregon St.P120.070.1857.8950.840.010.00
PrincetonIvy0.250.1652.9460.220.010.03
WashingtonP120.230.1670.0061.440.090.04
Weber St.BSky0.160.1656.2557.400.020.02
UtahP120.240.1563.1659.710.060.03
ArizonaP120.160.1580.0078.940.100.09
New Mexico St.WAC0.300.1583.3384.240.200.10
Fort WayneSum0.160.1352.6351.690.010.00
South DakotaSum0.160.1373.6872.380.070.06
Western IllinoisSum0.070.1342.8635.24-0.01-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.170.1230.0036.50-0.07-0.03
Miami FLACC0.170.1277.7870.480.090.05
Arizona St.P120.150.1278.9576.130.090.06
MissouriSEC0.080.1266.6763.200.030.03
UCLAP120.070.1265.0062.050.020.03
West VirginiaB120.150.1284.2178.170.100.07
GeorgiaSEC0.090.1066.6755.940.030.01
BinghamtonAE0.080.0942.1139.94-0.01-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.170.0962.5058.690.040.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.160.0970.0071.230.070.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0942.1143.51-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.070.0957.8958.850.010.02
SMUAmer0.160.0970.0070.570.060.04
Washington St.P120.070.0947.3741.44-0.00-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0945.0041.33-0.01-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.160.0945.0045.49-0.02-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.0938.8943.43-0.03-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.150.0978.9569.790.090.04
Penn St.B100.240.0961.9055.760.060.01
ColoradoP120.150.0960.0053.720.030.01
Oklahoma St.B120.230.0968.4254.090.080.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.150.0945.0045.03-0.02-0.01
OregonP120.150.0965.0063.850.040.02
HarvardIvy0.090.0737.5046.69-0.02-0.00
DavidsonA100.090.0758.8261.450.020.02
HowardMEAC0.090.0710.5327.29-0.07-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.160.0770.0068.300.070.02
TroySB0.090.0735.2942.76-0.03-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.090.0637.5031.76-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0650.0052.460.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0666.6765.640.030.02
DrakeMVC0.150.0655.0048.980.01-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0645.0041.300.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0650.0054.890.000.01
MichiganB100.090.0676.1970.740.050.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0629.4139.630.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.090.0657.8954.500.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0660.0062.030.020.02
ValparaisoMVC0.090.0647.3748.77-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0672.2258.920.040.01
San Diego St.MWC0.160.0658.8262.820.030.02
Georgia St.SB0.160.0666.6765.520.050.02
KansasB120.070.0684.2179.750.050.04
New MexicoMWC0.150.0645.0048.56-0.02-0.00
OklahomaB120.140.0677.7867.910.080.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0646.6746.970.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.070.0673.6862.720.030.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0685.0083.200.000.04
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6759.820.000.01
RiderMAAC0.070.0665.0065.320.020.02
DuquesneA100.150.0670.0058.090.060.01
AlabamaSEC0.080.0668.4258.980.030.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.0610.5316.750.00-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0612.5025.45-0.06-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.0668.4264.200.000.02
DukeACC0.150.0689.4785.210.120.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0636.8444.11-0.02-0.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0673.6867.970.040.02
LehighPat0.140.0638.8944.75-0.03-0.01
LSUSEC0.080.0661.1153.170.020.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0010.670.00-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.080.0627.7840.97-0.03-0.01
SyracuseACC0.070.0668.4261.230.030.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0621.0544.26-0.04-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0636.8435.57-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0616.6724.260.00-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0310.0019.63-0.07-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0380.0078.850.050.02
StetsonASun0.080.0333.3336.93-0.03-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0322.2227.33-0.05-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.080.0333.3334.10-0.03-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0327.7831.11-0.03-0.01
TCUB120.070.0373.6865.600.030.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0357.8953.190.010.00
BelmontOVC0.080.0371.4374.660.030.02
Boise St.MWC0.080.0378.9576.990.050.02
Little RockSB0.080.0322.2225.25-0.04-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0352.6355.290.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0345.0047.07-0.01-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0318.7536.82-0.05-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.080.0344.4446.65-0.01-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0357.1460.410.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0350.0051.640.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0311.7612.81-0.06-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0345.0049.29-0.01-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0352.9459.250.000.01
AkronMAC0.070.0347.0644.91-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0389.4777.000.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0365.0054.670.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.080.0372.2274.930.030.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0384.2173.240.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.030.009.09-0.07-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0331.5832.72-0.03-0.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0373.6871.560.040.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0373.6869.640.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0352.6343.110.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.070.0343.7549.23-0.01-0.00
HoustonAmer0.080.0378.9572.990.040.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0328.5731.26-0.03-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0372.2274.710.030.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0352.6345.860.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0342.1144.96-0.01-0.00
NavyPat0.070.0360.0055.160.010.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0380.0075.060.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0365.0056.340.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0366.6773.210.030.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0363.1661.020.000.01
OhioMAC0.080.0347.0648.41-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0327.7834.50-0.03-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0361.1151.910.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.080.0372.2268.930.030.01
TowsonCAA0.070.0363.1665.970.020.01
TulsaAmer0.080.0355.0053.320.010.00
UNLVMWC0.080.0373.6865.260.040.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0394.7486.140.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0368.4257.740.030.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0342.1140.460.00-0.01