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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


UC Santa Barbara

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:121.7
Current RPI:98
Expected SOS:114
Current SOS:46
Current Record:9-12
Expected Record:14-14
Current Conf Record:4-5
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:71
Expected OOC SOS:6



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-1295.110.75%
15-13108.328.78%
14-14123.132.31%
13-15138.619.45%
12-16153.47.08%
11-17167.31.49%
10-18183.40.13%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Santa Barbara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Nebraska Omaha (135.7)SumA59-60W100%0.0
11-16California (43.6)P12A85-67L0%0.0
11-21Oregon St. (57.9)P12H59-71L0%0.0
11-25San Francisco (227.7)WCCA61-68W100%0.0
11-29Arizona St. (78.4)P12A70-68L0%0.0
12-3USC (21.3)P12H63-75L0%0.0
12-13South Dakota St. (41.1)SumA86-68L0%0.0
12-16Vermont (161.2)AEA75-68L0%0.0
12-21Akron (33.3)MACN70-84L0%0.0
12-22Iona (123.7)MAACN76-80W100%0.0
12-28Washington (61.9)P12A78-83W100%0.0
12-30Seattle (269.2)WACA50-88W100%0.0
1-9Hawaii (89.7)BWA65-57L0%0.0
1-14Cal Poly (215.8)BWA73-76W100%0.0
1-16UC Irvine (68.4)BWH52-61L0%0.0
1-20Long Beach St. (100.8)BWH67-77L0%0.0
1-23Cal St. Northridge (276.8)BWH74-61W100%0.0
1-28Long Beach St. (100.8)BWA80-70L0%0.0
1-30UC Irvine (68.4)BWA60-76W100%0.0
2-4Hawaii (89.7)BWH64-76L0%0.0
2-6Cal St. Fullerton (284.3)BWH81-68W100%0.0
2-11UC Davis (254.1)BWA0-066%4.4
2-18UC Riverside (263.9)BWA0-064%4.0
2-20UC Davis (254.1)BWH0-085%11.1
2-25Cal St. Northridge (276.8)BWA0-070%5.7
2-27Cal St. Fullerton (284.3)BWA0-067%4.7
3-3UC Riverside (263.9)BWH0-084%10.7
3-5Cal Poly (215.8)BWH0-076%7.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Santa Barbara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Santa Barbara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Santa Barbara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC Santa BarbaraBW26.4926.3947.7554.52-1.192.39
Cal St. FullertonBW2.904.5536.8433.52-0.76-1.50
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2.934.5230.0029.59-1.17-1.85
UC RiversideBW0.694.5045.8342.78-0.06-0.65
UC DavisBW0.634.4940.0037.71-0.13-1.10
Cal PolyBW3.024.4931.5836.35-1.11-1.22
UC IrvineBW5.054.4775.0073.202.522.07
Long Beach St.BW5.174.4740.0047.74-1.03-0.20
HawaiiBW5.054.4682.3580.193.272.69
USCP122.712.1377.2772.161.480.94
WashingtonP122.702.0668.1863.210.980.54
Oregon St.P122.652.0660.0054.810.530.20
CaliforniaP122.542.0063.6461.590.690.46
Arizona St.P122.641.9952.1750.080.110.00
SeattleWAC2.541.9850.0046.790.00-0.13
San FranciscoWCC2.441.9157.1451.960.350.08
Nebraska OmahaSum2.441.8559.0958.410.440.31
South Dakota St.Sum2.431.8576.1976.011.270.96
IonaMAAC2.491.8563.6462.890.680.48
AkronMAC2.431.8281.8280.491.551.11
VermontAE2.381.7950.0053.300.000.12
UCLAP120.540.4656.5253.270.070.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.390.4139.1338.57-0.09-0.09
OregonP120.430.3682.6179.220.280.21
ArizonaP120.420.3379.1778.350.250.18
San DiegoWCC0.220.2931.8229.12-0.08-0.12
Saint Mary'sWCC0.270.2885.7185.380.200.20
ColoradoP120.320.2769.5765.330.130.08
UtahP120.270.2469.5767.500.110.08
StanfordP120.210.2450.0046.540.00-0.02
Washington St.P120.250.2436.3631.98-0.07-0.08
PortlandWCC0.170.2040.0038.51-0.03-0.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.110.2042.1145.67-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.170.1970.8368.550.070.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.1963.6462.150.030.05
South DakotaSum0.210.1941.6741.23-0.04-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.270.1965.2268.600.080.07
PacificWCC0.220.1925.0028.89-0.11-0.08
PepperdineWCC0.220.1956.5257.280.030.03
DenverSum0.210.1954.1751.790.020.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.220.1830.4331.20-0.08-0.07
NevadaMWC0.240.1655.0054.530.020.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1666.6767.700.040.06
UNLVMWC0.110.1550.0055.190.000.02
RiceCUSA0.160.1528.5729.66-0.07-0.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.1333.3334.95-0.02-0.04
UMKCWAC0.220.1328.5732.73-0.09-0.05
Portland St.BSky0.120.1331.5837.70-0.04-0.03
IUPUISum0.160.1340.0039.81-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.110.1339.1341.10-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.160.1327.7829.16-0.07-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.110.1363.6462.590.030.03
UMBCAE0.110.1324.0026.33-0.06-0.06
BYUWCC0.160.1366.6769.490.050.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.1219.0525.89-0.04-0.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1260.0057.610.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.160.1236.3636.15-0.04-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.220.1245.8342.26-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.1250.0049.790.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.160.1280.0081.160.090.07
OhioMAC0.050.1263.6461.420.010.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.170.1052.3854.080.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1082.6181.120.070.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.180.1024.0025.67-0.09-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.180.1020.0022.32-0.11-0.06
Fresno St.MWC0.110.1061.9059.540.030.02
Montana St.BSky0.180.1040.9143.71-0.03-0.01
Texas TechB120.180.1059.0953.180.030.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0954.5554.950.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.110.0978.2677.860.060.05
GonzagaWCC0.160.0978.2676.810.090.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.099.0912.24-0.04-0.07
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.0940.0043.44-0.03-0.01
KansasB120.160.0982.6179.190.110.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0928.5726.98-0.02-0.04
MaristMAAC0.150.0921.7424.19-0.09-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.150.0924.0024.55-0.08-0.05
SienaMAAC0.050.0964.0064.140.010.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.160.0914.2920.67-0.11-0.05
San Diego St.MWC0.160.0972.7372.110.070.04
VirginiaACC0.160.0983.3378.470.110.05
BuffaloMAC0.100.0956.5256.990.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.160.0945.0049.25-0.02-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.110.074.357.72-0.10-0.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0714.2915.46-0.04-0.05
Air ForceMWC0.000.0745.4538.44-0.00-0.02
AuburnSEC0.130.0739.1335.43-0.03-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0737.5040.54-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.130.0760.0060.080.030.01
HowardMEAC0.130.0736.3638.92-0.03-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.130.0718.1821.15-0.08-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.130.0754.1755.020.010.01
OklahomaB120.130.0786.9682.650.090.04
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0715.0015.34-0.04-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0776.1972.280.030.03
UTSACUSA0.060.0713.6413.63-0.04-0.05
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0645.0046.13-0.01-0.00
MinnesotaB100.110.0626.0927.79-0.05-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.110.0665.0069.240.030.02
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.5257.010.010.01
TulsaAmer0.110.0665.2261.470.030.01
ValparaisoHorz0.110.0681.8283.040.070.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.0621.7422.74-0.06-0.03
MontanaBSky0.110.0657.8962.320.020.02
TCUB120.110.0645.8339.34-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0644.0045.31-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.110.0652.3850.420.010.00
DukeACC0.110.0675.0071.800.050.03
FairfieldMAAC0.100.0654.1754.140.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0642.8642.05-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.100.0640.0042.11-0.02-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.0640.9143.29-0.02-0.01
Seton HallBE0.110.0673.9169.970.050.02
WyomingMWC0.100.0643.4842.49-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0635.0034.80-0.00-0.02
AlbanyAE0.100.0676.0076.310.050.03
BinghamtonAE0.050.0620.8324.09-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.110.0629.1726.74-0.05-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0650.0045.840.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.100.0647.6249.35-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.110.0675.0076.250.050.03
HartfordAE0.050.0625.0026.75-0.02-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0665.2260.590.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0630.0029.27-0.00-0.02
MaineAE0.100.0633.3333.13-0.03-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0634.7833.09-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0657.1453.990.010.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.0643.4850.65-0.010.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0681.8282.630.030.04
TexasB120.100.0666.6762.200.030.01
UCFAmer0.110.0650.0044.860.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.100.0634.7835.65-0.03-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.110.0647.6249.40-0.01-0.00
YaleIvy0.100.0673.6874.680.050.03
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0325.0022.73-0.03-0.02
UABCUSA0.060.0382.6179.370.040.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0340.9143.54-0.01-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0347.6252.05-0.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.035.007.21-0.05-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0354.1750.940.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.410.020.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0334.7830.33-0.02-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0361.9065.300.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0321.7423.34-0.03-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0313.6418.15-0.04-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0358.3357.170.010.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.4554.14-0.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0350.0053.100.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0360.8757.190.010.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.14-0.02-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0323.8126.56-0.03-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0334.7840.91-0.02-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0331.5831.75-0.02-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0366.6766.320.020.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0354.5556.020.000.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0335.0038.50-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0325.0029.30-0.03-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.210.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0340.0045.50-0.01-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0345.8346.64-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0368.0067.980.020.01
PennIvy0.050.0338.8937.63-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0380.0077.930.030.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0352.1754.170.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0371.4368.940.020.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0360.8762.040.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0387.5086.910.040.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0331.8232.69-0.02-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0366.6766.540.020.01
CreightonBE0.050.0364.0062.090.010.01
DavidsonA100.050.0360.0057.940.010.00
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0343.4841.96-0.01-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0352.9452.080.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0321.7423.40-0.03-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0375.0072.610.020.01
LafayettePat0.050.0321.7423.00-0.03-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0362.5056.050.010.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0358.3360.730.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
RichmondA100.050.0354.5554.470.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0317.3920.65-0.03-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0372.2275.580.020.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0373.9176.720.020.02
XavierBE0.050.0387.5081.810.040.02