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Through games of Feb 21, 2017.


UC Santa Barbara

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:328.6
Current RPI:328
Expected SOS:171
Current SOS:149
Current Record:3-21
Expected Record:4-23
Current Conf Record:2-11
Expected Conf Record:3-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-11
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:224
Expected OOC SOS:5



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-21306.53.40%
5-22320.522.97%
4-23330.046.23%
3-24335.727.39%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Santa Barbara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Nebraska Omaha (170.8)SumH60-74L0%0.0
11-16San Francisco (84.5)WCCH63-75L0%0.0
11-19Cal St. Bakersfield (79.3)WACA77-70L0%0.0
11-22SMU (18.0)AmerA84-57L0%0.0
11-27USC (34.7)P12A96-72L0%0.0
12-11San Diego (198.5)WCCA77-68L0%0.0
12-14UCLA (18.2)P12A102-62L0%0.0
12-21Iona (110.4)MAACN57-73L0%0.0
12-22Nevada (41.9)MWCN67-66L0%0.0
12-27Cal St. Bakersfield (79.3)WACH62-60W100%0.0
12-30Seattle (287.5)WACH76-80L0%0.0
1-4UC Davis (206.8)BWA73-47L0%0.0
1-12UC Irvine (141.0)BWH62-66L0%0.0
1-14Cal Poly (315.3)BWH58-53W100%0.0
1-19Long Beach St. (199.0)BWA81-76L0%0.0
1-21UC Riverside (318.8)BWA65-55L0%0.0
1-25Cal St. Northridge (265.9)BWH57-78L0%0.0
1-28Hawaii (289.2)BWA78-56L0%0.0
2-2Cal St. Fullerton (305.6)BWH53-79L0%0.0
2-4UC Davis (206.8)BWH64-67L0%0.0
2-8UC Irvine (141.0)BWA64-47L0%0.0
2-11Cal St. Northridge (265.9)BWA77-55L0%0.0
2-16Hawaii (289.2)BWH56-54W100%0.0
2-18Long Beach St. (199.0)BWH48-66L0%0.0
2-23UC Riverside (318.8)BWH0-050%-0.1
3-2Cal St. Fullerton (305.6)BWA0-023%-7.8
3-4Cal Poly (315.3)BWA0-029%-5.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Santa Barbara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Santa Barbara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Santa Barbara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC Santa BarbaraBW26.4926.488.3311.70-22.08-20.28
Cal St. FullertonBW2.954.7245.4543.82-0.27-0.58
UC DavisBW4.814.6752.1752.630.210.25
Long Beach St.BW4.944.6736.0038.81-1.38-1.04
UC IrvineBW4.884.6750.0053.750.000.35
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.874.6538.1038.76-1.16-1.05
UC RiversideBW3.004.6522.7324.46-1.64-2.37
Cal PolyBW2.884.6326.0927.15-1.38-2.11
HawaiiBW4.894.6347.8347.29-0.21-0.25
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC4.293.8071.4373.171.841.76
UCLAP122.412.1588.4687.641.861.61
SeattleWAC2.352.0636.3635.34-0.64-0.60
San DiegoWCC2.282.0438.4637.99-0.53-0.49
Nebraska OmahaSum2.212.0248.0047.55-0.09-0.10
USCP122.282.0176.9275.051.231.01
NevadaMWC2.241.9776.9276.421.201.04
SMUAmer2.211.9585.1985.071.561.37
San FranciscoWCC2.161.9262.9663.230.560.51
IonaMAAC2.161.9160.7161.060.460.42
WashingtonP120.330.3833.3332.51-0.11-0.13
New Mexico St.WAC0.420.3783.3384.080.280.25
PortlandWCC0.330.3629.6329.44-0.14-0.15
Grand CanyonWAC0.270.3565.3865.430.080.11
Utah ValleyWAC0.360.3534.7836.63-0.11-0.09
Santa ClaraWCC0.360.3250.0049.560.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.350.3232.1432.21-0.13-0.11
PepperdineWCC0.270.2829.6328.42-0.11-0.12
ArizonaP120.250.2589.2987.670.190.19
CaliforniaP120.280.2569.2367.330.110.09
UMKCWAC0.220.2548.0046.99-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.240.2360.0060.180.050.05
BYUWCC0.280.2365.5264.140.090.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.240.2246.1546.35-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.270.2288.8989.350.210.17
Chicago St.WAC0.180.2112.0011.80-0.14-0.16
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.230.2128.0028.36-0.10-0.09
Oregon St.P120.270.2114.8113.94-0.19-0.15
UNLVMWC0.130.2037.0436.28-0.03-0.05
Fresno St.MWC0.210.2056.0054.880.030.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.240.1942.8643.31-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.120.1946.4344.11-0.01-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.170.1740.9144.14-0.03-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.210.1723.0823.15-0.11-0.09
Boise St.MWC0.170.1666.6766.150.060.05
StanfordP120.200.1648.0046.99-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.090.1459.2658.980.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.1348.0047.39-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.130.1372.7374.030.060.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1364.0063.270.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.170.1357.1456.380.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.170.1353.8552.810.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.160.1381.4879.400.100.08
TroySB0.160.1353.8552.830.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.110.13100.0099.810.110.13
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.1237.5039.90-0.04-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.160.1232.0032.04-0.06-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.150.1260.0060.890.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.160.1240.0042.25-0.03-0.02
OregonP120.150.1285.1984.810.110.08
Washington St.P120.080.1242.3139.95-0.01-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.090.1012.0013.36-0.07-0.08
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.130.1064.0065.600.040.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1022.2224.27-0.07-0.05
MontanaBSky0.080.1050.0050.340.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.1044.4443.17-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.120.1081.4881.200.080.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.1025.9327.44-0.06-0.04
ColoradoP120.120.1055.5655.670.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.120.0934.7836.96-0.04-0.02
DrakeMVC0.120.0923.0823.92-0.06-0.05
OaklandHorz0.120.0974.0773.490.060.04
Weber St.BSky0.120.0960.8760.760.030.02
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0965.3864.110.020.03
DartmouthIvy0.090.0726.0925.96-0.04-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.090.0763.6464.980.020.02
North FloridaASun0.090.0730.7732.11-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0729.1731.48-0.02-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.090.0762.9662.450.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0728.0028.93-0.02-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.090.0716.0016.87-0.06-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0751.8551.270.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0744.0045.06-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.090.0742.8642.01-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.040.0755.5656.910.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0730.4331.14-0.03-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.080.0760.0060.590.020.01
IUPUISum0.080.0738.4639.09-0.02-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0722.2222.92-0.04-0.04
Seton HallBE0.080.0761.5460.010.020.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0714.8115.44-0.06-0.05
South DakotaSum0.080.0762.9662.810.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0724.0022.54-0.04-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.040.0759.0960.270.010.01
Texas St.SB0.080.0754.1753.200.010.00
UTSACUSA0.040.0736.0035.94-0.01-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0726.0925.92-0.04-0.03
UCFAmer0.080.0762.9662.110.020.02
IdahoBSky0.080.0647.8350.76-0.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0657.6956.380.010.01
PittsburghACC0.080.0655.5651.610.010.00
AkronMAC0.080.0677.7876.380.040.03
BinghamtonAE0.080.0634.6236.80-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0676.9277.200.040.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0673.0873.880.040.03
KansasB120.080.0688.8987.370.060.05
LouisvilleACC0.080.0681.4879.740.050.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0625.0026.25-0.04-0.03
TexasB120.080.0635.7134.86-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.080.0640.0041.65-0.02-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0686.2186.310.060.04
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0658.6258.700.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0688.8987.440.060.04
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0652.0050.070.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0646.4343.90-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0651.8551.120.000.00
HoustonAmer0.070.0669.2368.340.030.02
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0634.4833.53-0.01-0.02
MaristMAAC0.070.0624.1424.51-0.04-0.03
MemphisAmer0.040.0666.6763.160.010.02
MichiganB100.080.0662.9662.490.020.01
MonmouthMAAC0.040.0682.7681.870.020.04
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0631.0331.60-0.03-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0635.7136.67-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.070.0651.7252.460.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0657.1457.270.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.040.0652.1748.670.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.070.0648.2848.54-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.070.0650.0052.260.000.00
TowsonCAA0.070.0664.2961.960.020.01
TulaneAmer0.070.0618.5218.47-0.05-0.04
TulsaAmer0.040.0646.1547.81-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.080.0653.8553.480.010.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0420.0021.77-0.03-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0414.2918.11-0.03-0.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0475.0074.360.020.02
IowaB100.040.0353.5751.530.000.00
Iowa St.B120.040.0366.6764.790.010.01
Kansas St.B120.040.0362.9661.620.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.040.0346.1546.03-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.040.0364.0063.510.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.040.0320.0022.22-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0334.7833.52-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.040.0325.0025.84-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.040.0353.8554.290.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.040.0338.1038.33-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0352.1749.960.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.040.0347.8349.98-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.040.0360.7160.550.010.01
BradleyMVC0.040.0332.1432.59-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.040.0350.0050.450.000.00
CornellIvy0.040.0325.0025.32-0.02-0.01
DelawareCAA0.040.0337.0435.10-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.040.0338.4638.54-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.040.0378.5776.170.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.040.0350.0049.680.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.040.0382.1481.780.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0322.7323.32-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0353.5752.490.000.00
NebraskaB100.040.0344.0042.74-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.040.0359.0959.990.010.01
NJITASun0.040.0329.6330.60-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.040.0368.0068.550.010.01
Ohio St.B100.040.0353.5752.330.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.040.0326.9225.65-0.02-0.01
TCUB120.040.0361.5458.110.010.00
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0342.3143.65-0.01-0.00