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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


UC Santa Barbara

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:107.0
Current RPI:107
Expected SOS:224
Current SOS:224
Current Record:19-9
Expected Record:19-9
Current Conf Record:12-5
Expected Conf Record:12-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:62
Expected OOC SOS:103



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-9107.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Santa Barbara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12UNLV (108.0)MWCA65-86W100%0.0
11-16Utah St. (116.0)MWCH64-71L0%0.0
11-21Colorado (34.0)P12A76-68L0%0.0
11-29South Dakota St. (138.0)SumH83-64W100%0.0
12-3UCLA (14.0)P12A89-76L0%0.0
12-6California (63.0)P12H72-65W100%0.0
12-15San Diego (156.0)WCCA61-72W100%0.0
12-19Troy (285.0)SBN54-57W100%0.0
12-20Utah St. (116.0)MWCA77-71L0%0.0
12-21Western Illinois (290.0)SumN61-55W100%0.0
12-30Seattle (267.0)WACA70-86W100%0.0
1-11Cal Poly (208.0)BWH64-72L0%0.0
1-16Long Beach St. (166.0)BWH64-51W100%0.0
1-18Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWA69-79W100%0.0
1-23UC Riverside (319.0)BWA65-68W100%0.0
1-25Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWA74-72L0%0.0
1-30UC Irvine (111.0)BWH80-60W100%0.0
2-1UC Davis (326.0)BWH82-67W100%0.0
2-6Hawaii (160.0)BWA64-75W100%0.0
2-13Long Beach St. (166.0)BWA64-65W100%0.0
2-15Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWH78-80L0%0.0
2-20UC Riverside (319.0)BWH55-54W100%0.0
2-22Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWH80-65W100%0.0
2-27UC Irvine (111.0)BWA71-60L0%0.0
3-1UC Davis (326.0)BWA54-67W100%0.0
3-6Hawaii (160.0)BWH86-77W100%0.0
3-8Cal Poly (208.0)BWA55-71W100%0.0
3-13Cal Poly (208.0)BWN38-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Santa Barbara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Santa Barbara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Santa Barbara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC Santa BarbaraBW26.4726.4770.2970.2910.7410.74
Cal PolyBW6.296.2933.3333.33-2.10-2.10
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.714.7145.1645.16-0.46-0.46
UC IrvineBW4.644.6466.6766.671.551.55
Cal St. FullertonBW4.614.6134.4834.48-1.43-1.43
Long Beach St.BW4.574.5746.4346.43-0.33-0.33
UC RiversideBW4.544.5429.6329.63-1.85-1.85
HawaiiBW4.504.5066.6766.671.501.50
UC DavisBW4.484.4825.9325.93-2.16-2.16
Utah St.MWC3.693.6951.7251.720.130.13
SeattleWAC2.082.0840.7440.74-0.38-0.38
Western IllinoisSum1.971.9726.9226.92-0.91-0.91
UNLVMWC1.961.9662.5062.500.490.49
CaliforniaP121.951.9561.2961.290.440.44
South Dakota St.Sum1.911.9159.2659.260.350.35
ColoradoP121.891.8966.6766.670.630.63
UCLAP121.891.8975.7675.760.980.98
TroySB1.881.8832.1432.14-0.67-0.67
San DiegoWCC1.821.8248.2848.28-0.06-0.06
NevadaMWC0.430.4346.8846.88-0.03-0.03
USCP120.420.4232.2632.26-0.15-0.15
ArizonaP120.360.3688.2488.240.280.28
San Diego St.MWC0.350.3587.1087.100.260.26
StanfordP120.340.3463.6463.640.090.09
Fresno St.MWC0.340.3448.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.300.3038.7138.71-0.07-0.07
PacificWCC0.300.3048.2848.28-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.280.2853.1253.120.020.02
OregonP120.280.2871.8871.880.120.12
IdahoWAC0.270.2745.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.260.2642.8642.86-0.04-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.260.2659.3859.380.050.05
San Jose St.MWC0.260.2617.2417.24-0.17-0.17
Air ForceMWC0.260.2635.7135.71-0.07-0.07
Southern UtahBSky0.260.263.573.57-0.24-0.24
Colorado St.MWC0.250.2546.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.250.2548.1548.15-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.230.2346.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.230.2338.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Montana St.BSky0.230.2341.3841.38-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.220.2265.6265.620.070.07
DenverSum0.210.2150.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.200.2081.8281.820.130.13
WyomingMWC0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
UtahP120.190.1963.3363.330.050.05
South DakotaSum0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Oregon St.P120.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
IPFWSum0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.160.1673.5373.530.070.07
Kansas St.B120.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
MissouriSEC0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
IUPUISum0.130.1310.3410.34-0.10-0.10
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1378.5778.570.070.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
BYUWCC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
UMKCWAC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0946.1546.15-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.090.0953.5753.570.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.090.0913.7913.79-0.07-0.07
FurmanSC0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
PittsburghACC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
CreightonBE0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0634.6234.62-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Texas St.SB0.060.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
MichiganB100.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
VCUA100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Miami FLACC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0593.1093.100.050.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01