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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


UC Santa Barbara

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:324.0
Current RPI:324
Expected SOS:167
Current SOS:167
Current Record:5-22
Expected Record:5-22
Current Conf Record:4-12
Expected Conf Record:4-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-10
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:218
Expected OOC SOS:2



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
5-22324.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Santa Barbara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Nebraska Omaha (132.0)SumH60-74L0%0.0
11-16San Francisco (94.0)WCCH63-75L0%0.0
11-19Cal St. Bakersfield (75.0)WACA77-70L0%0.0
11-22SMU (13.0)AmerA84-57L0%0.0
11-27USC (40.0)P12A96-72L0%0.0
12-11San Diego (205.0)WCCA77-68L0%0.0
12-14UCLA (16.0)P12A102-62L0%0.0
12-21Iona (89.0)MAACN57-73L0%0.0
12-22Nevada (29.0)MWCN67-66L0%0.0
12-27Cal St. Bakersfield (75.0)WACH62-60W100%0.0
12-30Seattle (287.0)WACH76-80L0%0.0
1-4UC Davis (166.0)BWA73-47L0%0.0
1-12UC Irvine (135.0)BWH62-66L0%0.0
1-14Cal Poly (297.0)BWH58-53W100%0.0
1-19Long Beach St. (214.0)BWA81-76L0%0.0
1-21UC Riverside (330.0)BWA65-55L0%0.0
1-25Cal St. Northridge (312.0)BWH57-78L0%0.0
1-28Hawaii (300.0)BWA78-56L0%0.0
2-2Cal St. Fullerton (269.0)BWH53-79L0%0.0
2-4UC Davis (166.0)BWH64-67L0%0.0
2-8UC Irvine (135.0)BWA64-47L0%0.0
2-11Cal St. Northridge (312.0)BWA77-55L0%0.0
2-16Hawaii (300.0)BWH56-54W100%0.0
2-18Long Beach St. (214.0)BWH48-66L0%0.0
2-23UC Riverside (330.0)BWH68-61W100%0.0
3-2Cal St. Fullerton (269.0)BWA65-54L0%0.0
3-4Cal Poly (297.0)BWA44-57W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Santa Barbara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Santa Barbara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Santa Barbara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC Santa BarbaraBW26.3926.3915.7015.70-18.10-18.10
UC DavisBW4.804.8060.0060.000.960.96
UC IrvineBW4.804.8054.8454.840.460.46
Cal St. FullertonBW4.794.7948.1548.15-0.18-0.18
Long Beach St.BW4.734.7336.6736.67-1.26-1.26
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.664.6630.7730.77-1.79-1.79
UC RiversideBW4.654.6520.0020.00-2.79-2.79
Cal PolyBW4.634.6333.3333.33-1.54-1.54
HawaiiBW4.634.6344.4444.44-0.51-0.51
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC3.803.8069.2369.231.461.46
UCLAP122.162.1687.5087.501.621.62
SeattleWAC2.042.0434.6234.62-0.63-0.63
San DiegoWCC2.032.0337.9337.93-0.49-0.49
USCP122.022.0271.8871.880.890.89
Nebraska OmahaSum2.012.0153.3353.330.130.13
NevadaMWC1.961.9681.8281.821.251.25
SMUAmer1.951.9587.8887.881.471.47
San FranciscoWCC1.911.9160.0060.000.380.38
IonaMAAC1.911.9163.6463.640.520.52
Utah ValleyWAC0.430.4342.8642.86-0.06-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.410.4183.3383.330.270.27
WashingtonP120.390.3929.0329.03-0.16-0.16
PortlandWCC0.380.3829.0329.03-0.16-0.16
Santa ClaraWCC0.330.3350.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.330.3368.9768.970.130.13
PacificWCC0.300.3031.2531.25-0.11-0.11
PepperdineWCC0.270.2726.6726.67-0.13-0.13
ArizonaP120.260.2688.2488.240.200.20
CaliforniaP120.230.2363.6463.640.060.06
UMKCWAC0.230.2346.6746.67-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.220.2262.0762.070.050.05
BYUWCC0.220.2266.6766.670.070.07
Loyola MarymountWCC0.210.2148.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.210.2160.0060.000.040.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.200.2087.5087.500.150.15
South Dakota St.Sum0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.200.2010.3410.34-0.16-0.16
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.200.2024.1424.14-0.10-0.10
Oregon St.P120.200.2012.9012.90-0.15-0.15
UNLVMWC0.190.1934.3834.38-0.06-0.06
Arizona St.P120.180.1845.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
StanfordP120.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.150.1562.0762.070.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.130.1378.5778.570.070.07
Texas A&MSEC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
TroySB0.120.1258.8258.820.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
GonzagaWCC0.120.1296.9796.970.110.11
New MexicoMWC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1260.7160.710.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
OregonP120.110.1184.8584.850.080.08
Washington St.P120.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
Southern UtahBSky0.100.1012.9012.90-0.07-0.07
MontanaBSky0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0981.2581.250.060.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
IUPUISum0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
OaklandHorz0.090.0973.3373.330.040.04
Weber St.BSky0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
SienaMAAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.070.0767.8667.860.020.02
North FloridaASun0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
IdahoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
KansasB120.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
LouisvilleACC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
TexasB120.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
PittsburghACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0629.4129.41-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.060.0668.5768.570.020.02
WyomingMWC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00