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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


UC Santa Barbara

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:97.0
Current RPI:97
Expected SOS:110
Current SOS:110
Current Record:17-13
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:12-6
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-0
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:71
Expected OOC SOS:7



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1397.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Santa Barbara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumA59-60W100%0.0
11-16California (16.0)P12A85-67L0%0.0
11-21Oregon St. (33.0)P12H59-71L0%0.0
11-25San Francisco (228.0)WCCA61-68W100%0.0
11-29Arizona St. (99.0)P12A70-68L0%0.0
12-3USC (51.0)P12H63-75L0%0.0
12-13South Dakota St. (29.0)SumA86-68L0%0.0
12-16Vermont (126.0)AEA75-68L0%0.0
12-21Akron (34.0)MACN70-84L0%0.0
12-22Iona (77.0)MAACN76-80W100%0.0
12-28Washington (83.0)P12A78-83W100%0.0
12-30Seattle (287.0)WACA50-88W100%0.0
1-9Hawaii (80.0)BWA65-57L0%0.0
1-14Cal Poly (236.0)BWA73-76W100%0.0
1-16UC Irvine (75.0)BWH52-61L0%0.0
1-20Long Beach St. (79.0)BWH67-77L0%0.0
1-23Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWH74-61W100%0.0
1-28Long Beach St. (79.0)BWA80-70L0%0.0
1-30UC Irvine (75.0)BWA60-76W100%0.0
2-4Hawaii (80.0)BWH64-76L0%0.0
2-6Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWH81-68W100%0.0
2-11UC Davis (281.0)BWA66-72W100%0.0
2-18UC Riverside (267.0)BWA55-65W100%0.0
2-20UC Davis (281.0)BWH62-55W100%0.0
2-25Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWA63-78W100%0.0
2-27Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWA62-80W100%0.0
3-3UC Riverside (267.0)BWH81-55W100%0.0
3-5Cal Poly (236.0)BWH69-50W100%0.0
3-10UC Davis (281.0)BWN87-61W100%0.0
3-11Hawaii (80.0)BWN88-76L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Santa Barbara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Santa Barbara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Santa Barbara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC Santa BarbaraBW26.5126.5160.1360.135.375.37
HawaiiBW5.965.9681.4881.483.753.75
UC DavisBW5.875.8736.0036.00-1.64-1.64
Long Beach St.BW4.444.4453.3353.330.300.30
Cal St. FullertonBW4.404.4030.7730.77-1.69-1.69
UC IrvineBW4.364.3673.3373.332.032.03
UC RiversideBW4.324.3241.3841.38-0.75-0.75
Cal PolyBW4.314.3130.7730.77-1.66-1.66
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.294.2930.7730.77-1.65-1.65
USCP121.971.9762.5062.500.490.49
Oregon St.P121.961.9658.6258.620.340.34
WashingtonP121.911.9158.0658.060.310.31
CaliforniaP121.881.8868.7568.750.710.71
Arizona St.P121.881.8845.1645.16-0.18-0.18
SeattleWAC1.871.8744.4444.44-0.21-0.21
San FranciscoWCC1.781.7850.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum1.721.7276.6776.670.920.92
Nebraska OmahaSum1.721.7257.1457.140.250.25
IonaMAAC1.721.7270.9770.970.720.72
AkronMAC1.691.6975.0075.000.850.85
VermontAE1.671.6759.3859.380.310.31
UCLAP120.430.4346.8846.88-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.370.3743.3343.33-0.05-0.05
OregonP120.340.3481.8281.820.220.22
San DiegoWCC0.290.2927.5927.59-0.13-0.13
ArizonaP120.290.2975.7675.760.150.15
Saint Mary'sWCC0.280.2883.8783.870.190.19
UtahP120.260.2675.7675.760.130.13
ColoradoP120.240.2465.6265.620.070.07
StanfordP120.240.2448.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.230.2341.3841.38-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.230.2358.0658.060.040.04
DenverSum0.220.2251.6151.610.010.01
Washington St.P120.210.2126.6726.67-0.10-0.10
PortlandWCC0.210.2135.4835.48-0.06-0.06
PepperdineWCC0.200.2056.6756.670.030.03
IPFWSum0.170.1770.9770.970.070.07
South DakotaSum0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.170.1772.4172.410.080.08
PacificWCC0.170.1723.0823.08-0.09-0.09
New Mexico St.WAC0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
UNLVMWC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
MonmouthMAAC0.130.1379.4179.410.080.08
Portland St.BSky0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
IdahoBSky0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1124.2424.24-0.06-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1122.8622.86-0.06-0.06
Montana St.BSky0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1129.1729.17-0.05-0.05
Texas TechB120.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
UMBCAE0.110.1121.8821.88-0.06-0.06
BYUWCC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0918.5218.52-0.06-0.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0979.3179.310.050.05
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
GonzagaWCC0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
AuburnSEC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0857.6957.690.010.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
OklahomaB120.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
KansasB120.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
VirginiaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.060.063.453.45-0.06-0.06
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
UTSACUSA0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
LafayettePat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02