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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


UC Santa Barbara

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:87.0
Current RPI:87
Expected SOS:96
Current SOS:96
Current Record:17-13
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:12-6
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:101
Expected OOC SOS:10



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1387.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Santa Barbara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Kansas (2.0)B12A69-59L0%0.0
11-17Florida Gulf Coast (137.0)ASunA81-75L0%0.0
11-27Washington St. (169.0)P12N71-43W100%0.0
11-28Mercer (212.0)SCN65-60W100%0.0
11-29Colorado St. (29.0)MWCN63-65L0%0.0
12-4Seattle (280.0)WACH87-46W100%0.0
12-8SMU (12.0)AmerA80-73L0%0.0
12-11San Diego (157.0)WCCH65-79L0%0.0
12-22Oregon (27.0)P12A82-78L0%0.0
12-30Oregon St. (133.0)P12A76-64L0%0.0
1-2Vermont (203.0)AEH64-57W100%0.0
1-5Florida Gulf Coast (137.0)ASunH63-50W100%0.0
1-10Cal Poly (199.0)BWA45-50W100%0.0
1-15Cal St. Northridge (282.0)BWH63-74L0%0.0
1-17Long Beach St. (111.0)BWA69-53L0%0.0
1-22UC Riverside (234.0)BWH83-75W100%0.0
1-24Cal St. Fullerton (314.0)BWH68-49W100%0.0
1-29UC Davis (75.0)BWA70-64L0%0.0
1-31UC Irvine (88.0)BWA77-55L0%0.0
2-7Hawaii (152.0)BWH75-74W100%0.0
2-12Long Beach St. (111.0)BWH70-55W100%0.0
2-14Cal St. Northridge (282.0)BWA57-65W100%0.0
2-19UC Riverside (234.0)BWA64-62L0%0.0
2-21Cal St. Fullerton (314.0)BWA54-69W100%0.0
2-26UC Davis (75.0)BWH74-60W100%0.0
2-28UC Irvine (88.0)BWH54-51W100%0.0
3-4Hawaii (152.0)BWA90-98W100%0.0
3-7Cal Poly (199.0)BWH64-56W100%0.0
3-12Cal Poly (199.0)BWN54-50W100%0.0
3-13UC Irvine (88.0)BWN63-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Santa Barbara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Santa Barbara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Santa Barbara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC Santa BarbaraBW26.5626.5658.8758.874.714.71
UC IrvineBW5.985.9860.7160.711.281.28
Cal PolyBW5.825.8245.8345.83-0.49-0.49
HawaiiBW4.434.4364.5264.521.291.29
UC DavisBW4.394.3981.4881.482.762.76
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.344.3420.6920.69-2.55-2.55
UC RiversideBW4.314.3140.7440.74-0.80-0.80
Long Beach St.BW4.284.2844.8344.83-0.44-0.44
Cal St. FullertonBW4.254.2525.9325.93-2.05-2.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun3.333.3366.6766.671.111.11
OregonP121.911.9171.8871.880.840.84
SeattleWAC1.841.8450.0050.000.000.00
Washington St.P121.831.8343.3343.33-0.24-0.24
Oregon St.P121.771.7751.7251.720.060.06
Colorado St.MWC1.691.6980.6580.651.041.04
MercerSC1.691.6953.3353.330.110.11
KansasB121.671.6775.7675.760.860.86
San DiegoWCC1.671.6744.8344.83-0.17-0.17
SMUAmer1.671.6780.6580.651.021.02
VermontAE1.671.6758.6258.620.290.29
UCLAP120.330.3360.6160.610.070.07
ArizonaP120.290.2991.1891.180.240.24
San Diego St.MWC0.270.2775.7675.760.140.14
San FranciscoWCC0.260.2641.9441.94-0.04-0.04
NevadaMWC0.260.2624.1424.14-0.13-0.13
Fresno St.MWC0.250.2543.3343.33-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.240.2451.6151.610.010.01
ColoradoP120.240.2446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.230.2340.0040.00-0.05-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.230.2363.3363.330.060.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.230.2368.9768.970.090.09
CaliforniaP120.230.2354.5554.550.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.220.2262.0762.070.050.05
San Jose St.MWC0.220.220.000.00-0.22-0.22
USCP120.220.2237.5037.50-0.05-0.05
UtahP120.210.2174.1974.190.100.10
GonzagaWCC0.200.2093.9493.940.180.18
FurmanSC0.200.2029.0329.03-0.08-0.08
PepperdineWCC0.190.1956.6756.670.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.190.1923.3323.33-0.10-0.10
New Mexico St.WAC0.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
XavierBE0.190.1961.7661.760.050.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.190.1922.5822.58-0.11-0.11
PacificWCC0.190.1932.1432.14-0.07-0.07
JacksonvilleASun0.170.1724.1424.14-0.09-0.09
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.170.1736.6736.67-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Green BayHorz0.140.1473.3373.330.060.06
Portland St.BSky0.140.1448.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
FIUCUSA0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
LipscombASun0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.110.1121.4321.43-0.07-0.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
MaristMAAC0.110.1121.8821.88-0.06-0.06
PittsburghACC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
SamfordSC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1186.6786.670.080.08
StanfordP120.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Kansas St.B120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
TempleAmer0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
East CarolinaAmer0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
DelawareCAA0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
IPFWSum0.090.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0917.2417.24-0.06-0.06
UMKCWAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
UMBCAE0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
PortlandWCC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
RiceCUSA0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
VMISC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
WyomingMWC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
MassachusettsA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
HartfordAE0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.060.0610.0010.00-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
MontanaBSky0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.030.0374.0774.070.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
KentuckySEC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02
LafayettePat0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01