UC Santa Barbara

Conference:	BW
Expected RPI:	244.0
Current RPI:	244
Expected SOS:	151
Current SOS:	151
Current Record:	9-20
Expected Record:	9-20
Current Conf Record:	7-12
Expected Conf Record:	7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-7
Current OOC Record:	2-8
Expected OOC Record:	2-8
Expected OOC RPI:	211
Expected OOC SOS:	30

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-20	244.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Santa Barbara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Louisiana St. (86.0)	SEC	A	77-63	L	0%
11-12	Illinois St. (117.0)	MVC	A	100-72	L	0%
11-21	San Diego (165.0)	WCC	H	57-39	W	100%
11-24	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	A	72-56	L	0%
11-28	Wyoming (75.0)	MWC	H	40-68	L	0%
12-1	Santa Clara (101.0)	WCC	A	80-83	W	100%
12-6	San Diego St. (30.0)	MWC	A	84-70	L	0%
12-18	California (54.0)	P12	A	68-59	L	0%
12-21	Wyoming (75.0)	MWC	A	56-40	L	0%
12-29	Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)	BW	A	86-79	L	0%
1-3	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	H	74-71	W	100%
1-5	Long Beach St. (115.0)	BW	H	70-77	L	0%
1-10	Pacific (97.0)	BW	A	80-62	L	0%
1-12	UC Davis (234.0)	BW	A	59-66	W	100%
1-19	Cal Poly (164.0)	BW	H	83-81	W	100%
1-24	Cal St. Northridge (254.0)	BW	H	69-75	L	0%
1-26	Hawaii (210.0)	BW	H	73-78	L	0%
1-30	Long Beach St. (115.0)	BW	A	57-55	L	0%
2-2	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	A	62-60	L	0%
2-7	UC Davis (234.0)	BW	H	56-64	L	0%
2-9	Pacific (97.0)	BW	H	66-53	W	100%
2-16	Cal Poly (164.0)	BW	A	67-49	L	0%
2-20	UC Riverside (338.0)	BW	A	54-45	L	0%
2-23	Sacramento St. (283.0)	BSky	H	50-51	L	0%
2-28	Hawaii (210.0)	BW	A	70-66	L	0%
3-2	Cal St. Northridge (254.0)	BW	A	74-83	W	100%
3-7	Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)	BW	H	66-50	W	100%
3-9	UC Riverside (338.0)	BW	H	56-46	W	100%
3-14	Pacific (97.0)	BW	N	71-68	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Santa Barbara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UC Santa Barbara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UC Santa Barbara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UC Santa Barbara	BW	26.51	26.51	31.20	31.20	-9.97	-9.97
Pacific	BW	6.26	6.26	62.07	62.07	1.51	1.51
UC Irvine	BW	4.65	4.65	54.84	54.84	0.45	0.45
Cal Poly	BW	4.58	4.58	55.56	55.56	0.51	0.51
Long Beach St.	BW	4.53	4.53	53.57	53.57	0.32	0.32
UC Davis	BW	4.51	4.51	44.83	44.83	-0.47	-0.47
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	4.47	4.47	39.29	39.29	-0.96	-0.96
Hawaii	BW	4.47	4.47	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	4.44	4.44	40.74	40.74	-0.82	-0.82
UC Riverside	BW	4.41	4.41	11.54	11.54	-3.39	-3.39
Wyoming	MWC	3.59	3.59	53.57	53.57	0.26	0.26
San Diego St.	MWC	1.96	1.96	65.52	65.52	0.61	0.61
Boise St.	MWC	1.95	1.95	64.29	64.29	0.56	0.56
Santa Clara	WCC	1.92	1.92	65.52	65.52	0.60	0.60
San Diego	WCC	1.87	1.87	45.16	45.16	-0.18	-0.18
Louisiana St.	SEC	1.81	1.81	60.00	60.00	0.36	0.36
California	P12	1.80	1.80	63.33	63.33	0.48	0.48
Illinois St.	MVC	1.78	1.78	53.12	53.12	0.11	0.11
Sacramento St.	BSky	1.78	1.78	42.31	42.31	-0.27	-0.27
Fresno St.	MWC	0.60	0.60	32.14	32.14	-0.21	-0.21
Nevada	MWC	0.59	0.59	36.67	36.67	-0.16	-0.16
Pepperdine	WCC	0.40	0.40	37.93	37.93	-0.10	-0.10
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.37	0.37	72.73	72.73	0.17	0.17
St. Mary's	WCC	0.36	0.36	81.25	81.25	0.22	0.22
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.35	0.35	38.46	38.46	-0.08	-0.08
New Mexico	MWC	0.32	0.32	85.29	85.29	0.22	0.22
UCLA	P12	0.31	0.31	73.53	73.53	0.15	0.15
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.30	0.30	37.93	37.93	-0.07	-0.07
Air Force	MWC	0.29	0.29	53.57	53.57	0.02	0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.27	0.27	32.26	32.26	-0.09	-0.09
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.26	0.26	31.25	31.25	-0.10	-0.10
Southern California	P12	0.26	0.26	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.23	0.23	74.19	74.19	0.11	0.11
San Francisco	WCC	0.22	0.22	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Utah	BSky	0.21	0.21	31.03	31.03	-0.08	-0.08
Utah	P12	0.20	0.20	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.20	0.20	64.52	64.52	0.06	0.06
Gonzaga	WCC	0.19	0.19	93.75	93.75	0.17	0.17
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.18	0.18	34.38	34.38	-0.06	-0.06
Stanford	P12	0.17	0.17	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.13	0.13	23.08	23.08	-0.07	-0.07
Idaho St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	17.24	17.24	-0.08	-0.08
North Dakota	BSky	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.12	0.12	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Weber St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Colorado	P12	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Portland	WCC	0.11	0.11	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Utah St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Creighton	MVC	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Montana	BSky	0.09	0.09	79.31	79.31	0.05	0.05
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.09	0.09	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Tulsa	CUSA	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.09	0.09	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Idaho	WAC	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	WAC	0.09	0.09	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.09	0.09	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.09	0.09	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.08	0.08	85.19	85.19	0.06	0.06
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Christian	B12	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.03	0.03	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	70.37	70.37	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00