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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


UC Riverside

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:291.2
Current RPI:220
Expected SOS:286
Current SOS:30
Current Record:0-4
Expected Record:9-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-9
Current OOC Record:0-4
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:269
Expected OOC SOS:133



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-8112.00.01%
17-9114.00.02%
16-10144.60.13%
15-11168.90.46%
14-12189.41.00%
13-13212.32.89%
12-14233.35.98%
11-15254.710.28%
10-16275.214.78%
9-17292.517.63%
8-18307.417.48%
7-19320.113.64%
6-20329.48.73%
5-21336.64.36%
4-22341.81.93%
3-23345.40.54%
2-24347.50.12%
1-25350.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Riverside.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Portland (108.8)WCCA71-55L0%0.0
11-16UNLV (163.6)MWCA74-62L0%0.0
11-25Utah (80.8)P12A85-67L0%0.0
11-30UCLA (19.0)P12A98-56L0%0.0
12-13Santa Clara (214.8)WCCA0-025%-8.2
12-17Montana (251.5)BSkyH0-045%-1.4
12-20Northern Colorado (274.9)BSkyA0-039%-3.3
12-22Denver (270.4)SumA0-032%-5.5
12-28Utah Valley (129.4)WACH0-037%-4.0
12-31Grand Canyon (187.1)WACH0-040%-3.0
1-4Cal St. Northridge (259.9)BWA0-030%-6.4
1-7Long Beach St. (199.2)BWA0-024%-8.7
1-12UC Davis (236.9)BWH0-050%0.1
1-18Cal St. Fullerton (331.5)BWA0-046%-1.1
1-21UC Santa Barbara (274.6)BWH0-056%1.7
1-25Hawaii (274.4)BWA0-027%-7.2
1-28Cal St. Northridge (259.9)BWH0-049%-0.2
2-2Hawaii (274.4)BWH0-047%-1.0
2-4Cal Poly (281.6)BWA0-037%-4.0
2-9Long Beach St. (199.2)BWH0-042%-2.5
2-11UC Davis (236.9)BWA0-031%-6.0
2-16Cal St. Fullerton (331.5)BWH0-066%5.1
2-18UC Irvine (155.6)BWA0-018%-11.0
2-23UC Santa Barbara (274.6)BWA0-035%-4.5
2-25Cal Poly (281.6)BWH0-057%2.2
3-1UC Irvine (155.6)BWH0-034%-4.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Riverside's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Riverside's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Riverside.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC RiversideBW29.4926.440.0034.72-29.49-8.08
UC DavisBW0.004.8957.1447.590.00-0.24
Cal St. FullertonBW0.894.8716.6728.94-0.60-2.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2.034.8716.6741.92-1.35-0.79
Long Beach St.BW0.784.860.0037.35-0.78-1.23
UC IrvineBW0.004.8550.0053.280.000.32
Cal PolyBW0.004.8533.3334.63-0.00-1.49
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.004.840.0031.76-0.00-1.77
HawaiiBW0.004.8050.0049.930.00-0.01
UCLAP1213.752.20100.0083.0013.751.45
PortlandWCC13.282.1650.0055.700.000.25
Santa ClaraWCC0.002.1637.5034.90-0.00-0.65
Utah ValleyWAC0.002.1360.0058.790.000.37
Grand CanyonWAC0.002.0750.0056.130.000.25
Northern ColoradoBSky0.002.0216.6739.93-0.00-0.41
DenverSum0.002.0033.3340.16-0.00-0.39
UNLVMWC12.501.9966.6747.914.17-0.08
UtahP1212.501.9966.6759.484.170.38
MontanaBSky0.001.9614.2947.21-0.00-0.11
WashingtonP120.000.3457.1452.630.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.3183.3363.610.000.08
San DiegoWCC0.780.3028.5727.50-0.33-0.14
PacificWCC0.780.3050.0049.010.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.2950.0035.230.00-0.09
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.2850.0059.670.000.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.2833.3348.73-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.2820.0042.63-0.00-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.2771.4368.100.000.10
Weber St.BSky0.000.2720.0054.94-0.000.03
ArizonaP120.000.2785.7170.990.000.11
Idaho St.BSky0.000.2414.2929.81-0.00-0.10
Portland St.BSky0.000.2425.0040.37-0.00-0.05
San FranciscoWCC0.000.2483.3350.740.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.2450.0036.820.00-0.06
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.230.0021.30-0.00-0.13
Oregon St.P120.000.2328.5723.76-0.00-0.12
Northern ArizonaBSky0.890.2314.2928.15-0.64-0.10
Southern UtahBSky0.890.200.0023.26-0.89-0.11
USCP120.000.20100.0075.380.000.10
NevadaMWC0.000.2075.0070.470.000.08
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2033.3345.60-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.2014.2937.52-0.00-0.05
Arizona St.P120.000.2057.1436.050.00-0.06
OregonP120.000.2071.4366.730.000.07
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.19100.0089.040.000.15
San Jose St.MWC1.250.1940.0037.44-0.25-0.05
StanfordP120.000.1875.0059.100.000.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1725.0024.28-0.00-0.09
Utah St.MWC0.000.1750.0053.560.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.1771.4368.660.000.06
GonzagaWCC0.000.17100.0091.060.000.14
IdahoBSky0.000.1640.0050.88-0.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1683.3361.490.000.04
Air ForceMWC0.000.1650.0042.710.00-0.02
WyomingMWC0.000.1660.0048.590.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.1425.0063.95-0.000.04
UTSACUSA0.000.1428.5728.46-0.00-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.140.0024.25-0.00-0.07
Chicago St.WAC0.000.140.0017.30-0.00-0.09
UMKCWAC0.000.1471.4356.050.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1442.8645.30-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.1485.7180.010.000.08
ColoradoP120.000.1471.4359.850.000.03
Texas A&MSEC0.780.1466.6766.100.260.04
Montana St.BSky1.560.1350.0062.460.000.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.1350.0058.980.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.1371.4358.670.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1350.0061.810.000.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1366.6751.460.000.00
South DakotaSum0.000.1357.1447.220.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1157.1440.590.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.1033.3353.29-0.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1050.0050.290.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1060.0039.610.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.1083.3370.360.000.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1033.3333.15-0.00-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.100.0019.30-0.00-0.06
LouisvilleACC0.000.1085.7175.950.000.05
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1075.0074.990.000.05
KansasB120.000.1085.7176.170.000.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0716.6736.35-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0720.0034.39-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0750.0066.170.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0771.4354.520.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0750.0043.310.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0733.3332.23-0.00-0.03
ButlerBE1.560.07100.0075.691.560.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0714.2934.56-0.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0760.0070.140.000.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0757.1447.320.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0716.6737.09-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0757.1469.300.000.03
St. John'sBE0.000.0728.5733.92-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC1.560.070.0018.22-1.56-0.04
ElonCAA0.000.0783.3358.030.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.07100.0069.770.000.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0742.8638.05-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0783.3369.840.000.03
DrakeMVC0.000.070.0021.30-0.00-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0783.3380.700.000.04
Fort WayneSum0.000.0766.6770.930.000.03
IUPUISum0.000.0728.5747.72-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0783.3378.430.000.04
Western IllinoisSum0.000.070.0022.69-0.00-0.04
DukeACC0.000.0687.5078.680.000.04
South AlabamaSB0.890.0683.3361.150.600.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0642.8640.94-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0055.850.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0650.0071.330.000.03
TexasB120.000.0650.0036.240.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0671.4386.030.000.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0416.6732.62-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.04100.0074.800.000.02
BucknellPat0.000.0475.0067.660.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0483.3351.920.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0060.380.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.39-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.480.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0342.8635.68-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0024.77-0.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.0362.5043.960.00-0.00
DaytonA101.250.0366.6772.440.420.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7174.430.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0357.1448.860.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0037.92-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0086.250.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0371.4366.530.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0371.4346.010.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.780.0350.0043.610.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0385.7172.660.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0350.0046.670.00-0.00
TCUB120.890.03100.0059.480.890.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.890.0342.8634.17-0.13-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.45-0.00-0.01