live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


UC Riverside

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:267.0
Current RPI:267
Expected SOS:280
Current SOS:280
Current Record:12-19
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-9
Current OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC RPI:246
Expected OOC SOS:333



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-19267.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Riverside.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-19Santa Clara (251.0)WCCH77-63W100%0.0
11-21San Francisco (228.0)WCCA58-57L0%0.0
11-24Delaware St. (345.0)MEACH81-55W100%0.0
11-27Rice (279.0)CUSAA87-81L0%0.0
11-29Lamar (337.0)SlndA69-74W100%0.0
12-3Northern Colorado (304.0)BSkyH77-66W100%0.0
12-6Loyola Marymount (223.0)WCCA77-76L0%0.0
12-12UNLV (147.0)MWCH62-73L0%0.0
12-15Houston Baptist (224.0)SlndA72-59L0%0.0
12-18Abilene Christian (321.0)SlndA56-60W100%0.0
12-22Denver (188.0)SumH63-54W100%0.0
12-28Morgan St. (327.0)MEACA72-81W100%0.0
12-30Ohio (81.0)MACA81-59L0%0.0
1-2Cal St. Bakersfield (117.0)WACH48-67L0%0.0
1-7Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWH73-79L0%0.0
1-9UC Irvine (75.0)BWA84-68L0%0.0
1-14Hawaii (80.0)BWH71-80L0%0.0
1-16Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWA72-75W100%0.0
1-21UC Davis (281.0)BWA58-55L0%0.0
1-23Long Beach St. (79.0)BWH74-72W100%0.0
1-28Cal Poly (236.0)BWA68-72W100%0.0
1-30Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWA71-81W100%0.0
2-3Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWH71-73L0%0.0
2-6UC Davis (281.0)BWH49-50L0%0.0
2-13Cal Poly (236.0)BWH78-86L0%0.0
2-18UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWH55-65L0%0.0
2-25Hawaii (80.0)BWA71-77W100%0.0
2-27Long Beach St. (79.0)BWA66-55L0%0.0
3-3UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWA81-55L0%0.0
3-5UC Irvine (75.0)BWH66-76L0%0.0
3-10Long Beach St. (79.0)BWN82-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Riverside's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Riverside's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Riverside.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC RiversideBW26.3926.3940.2540.25-5.14-5.14
Long Beach St.BW5.725.7255.1755.170.590.59
UC IrvineBW4.244.2470.0070.001.701.70
HawaiiBW4.234.2385.7185.713.023.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.194.1953.5753.570.300.30
Cal St. FullertonBW4.154.1526.9226.92-1.91-1.91
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.124.1226.9226.92-1.90-1.90
Cal PolyBW4.114.1126.9226.92-1.90-1.90
UC DavisBW4.094.0926.9226.92-1.89-1.89
Loyola MarymountWCC1.951.9541.3841.38-0.34-0.34
San FranciscoWCC1.891.8946.4346.43-0.13-0.13
Santa ClaraWCC1.801.8034.4834.48-0.56-0.56
LamarSlnd1.781.7828.0028.00-0.78-0.78
Houston BaptistSlnd1.761.7642.8642.86-0.25-0.25
Abilene ChristianSlnd1.731.7334.6234.62-0.53-0.53
Morgan St.MEAC1.731.7327.5927.59-0.77-0.77
RiceCUSA1.701.7031.0331.03-0.64-0.64
Delaware St.MEAC1.701.7017.2417.24-1.11-1.11
UNLVMWC1.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
DenverSum1.671.6753.3353.330.110.11
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.641.6471.4371.430.700.70
Northern ColoradoBSky1.641.6428.5728.57-0.70-0.70
OhioMAC1.611.6163.3363.330.430.43
San DiegoWCC0.390.3927.5927.59-0.17-0.17
Saint Mary'sWCC0.380.3883.8783.870.260.26
PepperdineWCC0.320.3256.6756.670.040.04
PortlandWCC0.310.3135.4835.48-0.09-0.09
Fresno St.MWC0.280.2871.8871.880.120.12
PacificWCC0.270.2723.0823.08-0.15-0.15
BYUWCC0.270.2768.7568.750.100.10
SeattleWAC0.250.2542.8642.86-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.240.2467.7467.740.080.08
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.230.2351.7251.720.010.01
UCLAP120.220.2246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.210.2150.0050.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.200.2056.0056.000.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.200.2076.6776.670.110.11
Portland St.BSky0.200.2037.9337.93-0.05-0.05
NevadaMWC0.190.1956.6756.670.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.190.1960.0060.000.040.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.180.1882.1482.140.110.11
Idaho St.BSky0.170.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
USCP120.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
IdahoBSky0.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
Oregon St.P120.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
South DakotaSum0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
Air ForceMWC0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.160.1655.1755.170.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.160.1677.4277.420.090.09
Norfolk St.MEAC0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.150.1581.8281.820.100.10
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
Arizona St.P120.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
HamptonMEAC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.1329.0329.03-0.06-0.06
ArizonaP120.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.120.1226.9226.92-0.06-0.06
Southern UtahBSky0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
WashingtonP120.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
IPFWSum0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1162.8662.860.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1124.2424.24-0.05-0.05
WyomingMWC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.110.1175.7675.760.050.05
VirginiaACC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0920.8320.83-0.05-0.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0918.5218.52-0.05-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
TCUB120.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.05-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.080.083.453.45-0.08-0.08
MontanaBSky0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0879.3179.310.050.05
Weber St.BSky0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
CaliforniaP120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
KansasB120.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
BuffaloMAC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Seton HallBE0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
NebraskaB100.060.0647.0647.06-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
VermontAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0529.1729.17-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UtahP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01