UC Riverside

Conference:	BW
Expected RPI:	338.0
Current RPI:	338
Expected SOS:	287
Current SOS:	287
Current Record:	4-24
Expected Record:	4-24
Current Conf Record:	3-15
Expected Conf Record:	3-15
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	3-12
Current OOC Record:	1-9
Expected OOC Record:	1-9
Expected OOC RPI:	345
Expected OOC SOS:	326

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
4-24	338.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Riverside.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	DePaul (204.0)	BE	A	91-59	L	0%
11-11	Illinois Chicago (169.0)	Horz	A	59-52	L	0%
11-14	Fresno St. (135.0)	MWC	H	30-39	L	0%
11-21	Northeastern (159.0)	CAA	N	52-61	L	0%
11-24	Texas St. (272.0)	WAC	N	81-69	L	0%
12-1	Northern Colorado (257.0)	BSky	H	69-63	W	100%
12-5	Pepperdine (212.0)	WCC	A	62-40	L	0%
12-15	Southern California (118.0)	P12	A	70-26	L	0%
12-22	Air Force (80.0)	MWC	H	53-61	L	0%
12-29	Cal Poly (164.0)	BW	H	48-58	L	0%
1-3	Cal St. Northridge (254.0)	BW	A	64-65	W	100%
1-5	Hawaii (210.0)	BW	A	76-61	L	0%
1-12	Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)	BW	A	71-69	L	0%
1-17	Long Beach St. (115.0)	BW	H	82-91	L	0%
1-19	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	H	68-58	W	100%
1-24	Pacific (97.0)	BW	A	63-58	L	0%
1-26	UC Davis (234.0)	BW	A	79-72	L	0%
1-31	Hawaii (210.0)	BW	H	68-72	L	0%
2-2	Cal St. Northridge (254.0)	BW	H	53-69	L	0%
2-9	Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)	BW	H	67-79	L	0%
2-13	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	A	52-48	L	0%
2-16	Long Beach St. (115.0)	BW	A	75-35	L	0%
2-20	UC Santa Barbara (244.0)	BW	H	54-45	W	100%
2-23	Portland St. (339.0)	BSky	A	66-58	L	0%
2-28	UC Davis (234.0)	BW	H	52-59	L	0%
3-2	Pacific (97.0)	BW	H	68-70	L	0%
3-7	Cal Poly (164.0)	BW	A	68-62	L	0%
3-9	UC Santa Barbara (244.0)	BW	A	56-46	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Riverside's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UC Riverside's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UC Riverside.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UC Riverside	BW	26.36	26.36	12.50	12.50	-19.77	-19.77
UC Irvine	BW	4.79	4.79	54.84	54.84	0.46	0.46
Pacific	BW	4.73	4.73	60.00	60.00	0.95	0.95
Long Beach St.	BW	4.72	4.72	53.57	53.57	0.34	0.34
Cal Poly	BW	4.69	4.69	51.85	51.85	0.17	0.17
UC Davis	BW	4.61	4.61	41.38	41.38	-0.79	-0.79
Hawaii	BW	4.60	4.60	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	4.57	4.57	35.71	35.71	-1.31	-1.31
UC Santa Barbara	BW	4.57	4.57	29.63	29.63	-1.86	-1.86
Cal St. Northridge	BW	4.54	4.54	40.74	40.74	-0.84	-0.84
Fresno St.	MWC	2.14	2.14	29.63	29.63	-0.87	-0.87
Northern Colorado	BSky	1.97	1.97	39.29	39.29	-0.42	-0.42
Pepperdine	WCC	1.96	1.96	35.71	35.71	-0.56	-0.56
Southern California	P12	1.90	1.90	41.94	41.94	-0.31	-0.31
Air Force	MWC	1.85	1.85	51.85	51.85	0.07	0.07
Portland St.	BSky	1.85	1.85	20.00	20.00	-1.11	-1.11
DePaul	BE	1.79	1.79	32.26	32.26	-0.63	-0.63
Illinois Chicago	Horz	1.79	1.79	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northeastern	CAA	1.79	1.79	61.29	61.29	0.40	0.40
Texas St.	WAC	1.79	1.79	31.25	31.25	-0.67	-0.67
Nevada	MWC	0.42	0.42	36.67	36.67	-0.11	-0.11
UCLA	P12	0.32	0.32	73.53	73.53	0.15	0.15
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.31	0.31	32.26	32.26	-0.11	-0.11
Wyoming	MWC	0.28	0.28	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.27	0.27	72.73	72.73	0.12	0.12
Southern Utah	BSky	0.25	0.25	31.03	31.03	-0.10	-0.10
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.25	0.25	44.44	44.44	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.25	0.25	34.38	34.38	-0.08	-0.08
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.24	0.24	31.25	31.25	-0.09	-0.09
Santa Clara	WCC	0.24	0.24	63.33	63.33	0.06	0.06
St. Mary's	WCC	0.23	0.23	81.25	81.25	0.15	0.15
Montana St.	BSky	0.22	0.22	39.29	39.29	-0.05	-0.05
Colorado St.	MWC	0.22	0.22	74.19	74.19	0.11	0.11
San Diego St.	MWC	0.22	0.22	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
San Diego	WCC	0.22	0.22	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
California	P12	0.20	0.20	64.52	64.52	0.06	0.06
Idaho St.	BSky	0.19	0.19	17.24	17.24	-0.12	-0.12
North Dakota	BSky	0.19	0.19	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.19	0.19	65.52	65.52	0.06	0.06
Weber St.	BSky	0.18	0.18	80.00	80.00	0.11	0.11
New Mexico	MWC	0.18	0.18	85.29	85.29	0.13	0.13
Washington	P12	0.18	0.18	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.17	0.17	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Montana	BSky	0.16	0.16	79.31	79.31	0.09	0.09
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.15	0.15	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.15	0.15	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Utah	P12	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.12	0.12	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.12	0.12	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.12	0.12	93.75	93.75	0.10	0.10
San Francisco	WCC	0.12	0.12	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Arizona	P12	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Idaho	WAC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Utah St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.09	0.09	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Colorado	P12	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.09	0.09	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.09	0.09	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Texas	B12	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
George Mason	CAA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Denver	WAC	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Seattle	WAC	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Christian	B12	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	85.19	85.19	0.04	0.04
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.06	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.03	0.03	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	59.26	59.26	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00