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Through games of Jan 24, 2015.


UC Riverside

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:262.6
Current RPI:241
Expected SOS:202
Current SOS:201
Current Record:7-11
Expected Record:10-18
Current Conf Record:2-4
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-5
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:233
Expected OOC SOS:256



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-12141.50.02%
15-13165.90.17%
14-14188.01.01%
13-15209.34.93%
12-16229.712.86%
11-17249.122.62%
10-18268.626.98%
9-19286.621.10%
8-20301.58.76%
7-21311.91.54%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Riverside.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Sacramento St. (154.5)BSkyH69-70L0%0.0
11-21Utah (9.0)P12A88-42L0%0.0
11-26Loyola Marymount (244.3)WCCA66-62L0%0.0
11-29Abilene Christian (298.5)SlndH76-56W100%0.0
12-2Cal St. Bakersfield (309.2)WACA58-59W100%0.0
12-6Portland St. (241.0)BSkyH88-62W100%0.0
12-10UCLA (93.4)P12A77-66L0%0.0
12-20Houston Baptist (284.1)SlndH78-67W100%0.0
12-22San Diego St. (26.5)MWCA61-33L0%0.0
12-30Morgan St. (326.4)MEACH68-63W100%0.0
1-2Northern Illinois (226.9)MACA72-67L0%0.0
1-4Grand Canyon (272.3)WACA71-69L0%0.0
1-8Cal St. Fullerton (287.5)BWH84-78W100%0.0
1-10UC Irvine (115.2)BWA69-55L0%0.0
1-15UC Davis (124.6)BWH61-74L0%0.0
1-17Hawaii (190.4)BWH66-62W100%0.0
1-22UC Santa Barbara (107.8)BWA83-75L0%0.0
1-24Cal Poly (159.6)BWA68-49L0%0.0
1-31Cal St. Northridge (273.3)BWH0-064%4.0
2-5Long Beach St. (81.5)BWA0-012%-12.8
2-7Cal St. Fullerton (287.5)BWA0-044%-1.8
2-12Hawaii (190.4)BWA0-021%-8.9
2-14UC Irvine (115.2)BWH0-028%-6.3
2-19UC Santa Barbara (107.8)BWH0-027%-6.8
2-21Cal Poly (159.6)BWH0-041%-2.5
2-28Cal St. Northridge (273.3)BWA0-040%-2.8
3-5UC Davis (124.6)BWA0-017%-10.4
3-7Long Beach St. (81.5)BWH0-029%-6.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Riverside's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Riverside's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Riverside.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC RiversideBW26.4526.3937.8835.23-6.41-7.79
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.644.5525.0026.69-0.32-2.12
UC IrvineBW3.154.5450.0055.200.000.47
Long Beach St.BW0.484.5242.1149.93-0.08-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW3.274.5235.2931.94-0.96-1.63
HawaiiBW3.114.4966.6758.621.040.77
UC Santa BarbaraBW2.944.4543.7551.93-0.370.17
UC DavisBW2.934.4473.3364.581.371.30
Cal PolyBW3.014.4446.6747.95-0.20-0.18
Sacramento St.BSky3.022.0162.5060.110.760.41
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC3.081.9727.7837.68-1.37-0.49
UCLAP122.941.9752.6350.530.150.02
San Diego St.MWC2.931.9772.2275.001.300.98
Portland St.BSky2.851.9453.3349.360.19-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.931.9240.0034.12-0.59-0.61
Morgan St.MEAC2.861.9121.0528.08-1.66-0.84
Grand CanyonWAC2.941.8844.4448.66-0.33-0.05
UtahP122.921.8781.2582.431.831.21
Houston BaptistSlnd2.781.8541.6735.10-0.46-0.55
Loyola MarymountWCC2.861.8521.0522.74-1.66-1.01
Northern IllinoisMAC2.781.7940.0036.56-0.56-0.48
SeattleWAC0.330.4147.0649.64-0.02-0.00
OregonP120.320.3168.4259.850.120.06
San FranciscoWCC0.420.2640.0041.96-0.08-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.2650.0043.330.00-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.320.2635.2938.26-0.10-0.06
NevadaMWC0.160.2525.0026.14-0.08-0.12
USCP120.380.2547.3739.90-0.02-0.05
ArizonaP120.240.2490.0087.180.190.18
BYUWCC0.300.2465.0067.580.090.08
IdahoBSky0.340.2337.5043.65-0.09-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.2381.2584.470.050.16
Fresno St.MWC0.310.2244.4437.95-0.03-0.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.310.2278.9574.010.180.11
Washington St.P120.250.2247.3738.18-0.01-0.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.260.2043.7552.34-0.030.01
GonzagaWCC0.310.1995.0094.580.280.17
Santa ClaraWCC0.230.1947.3741.09-0.01-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.230.1950.0062.000.000.05
CaliforniaP120.230.1955.0045.750.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.140.1916.6720.02-0.10-0.11
San DiegoWCC0.290.1845.0045.94-0.03-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.150.1857.8956.290.020.02
WashingtonP120.070.1877.7865.930.040.06
ColoradoP120.220.1852.6351.170.010.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.160.1754.5565.340.010.05
North DakotaBSky0.250.1725.0032.97-0.13-0.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.240.1742.1147.26-0.04-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.260.1657.8956.220.040.02
San Jose St.MWC0.160.160.002.08-0.16-0.15
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.230.1627.7828.15-0.10-0.07
Oregon St.P120.150.1572.2262.220.070.04
New MexicoMWC0.220.1565.0062.970.070.04
LamarSlnd0.110.1440.0038.39-0.02-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1468.7575.250.000.07
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.170.1370.5973.720.070.06
Southern UtahBSky0.170.1323.5327.70-0.09-0.06
UT ArlingtonSB0.260.1361.1159.630.060.03
Idaho St.BSky0.310.1316.6723.13-0.21-0.07
PortlandWCC0.240.1352.6349.040.01-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.160.1355.5653.210.020.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.160.1361.1166.550.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.230.1335.2936.78-0.07-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.070.135.5611.58-0.06-0.10
PacificWCC0.150.1338.8934.81-0.03-0.04
UMKCWAC0.070.1331.5838.42-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.150.1237.5037.47-0.04-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.230.1225.0032.65-0.12-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.150.1289.4783.130.120.08
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1264.7156.920.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.160.1266.6767.930.050.04
Arizona St.P120.150.1250.0052.250.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.220.1288.8987.630.170.09
StanfordP120.140.1273.6869.340.070.05
LouisvilleACC0.000.1283.3376.670.000.06
XavierBE0.000.1265.0063.100.000.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1023.5344.31-0.06-0.01
DelawareCAA0.160.1021.0522.35-0.09-0.06
HoustonAmer0.260.1036.8435.27-0.07-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.260.1015.3818.25-0.18-0.06
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0978.5774.650.040.05
KansasB120.160.0984.2175.960.110.05
HamptonMEAC0.160.0942.1141.54-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.150.0970.5968.470.060.03
South DakotaSum0.070.0945.0047.79-0.01-0.00
NebraskaB100.140.0963.1651.440.040.00
UNLVMWC0.150.0952.6354.310.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.0947.0649.65-0.01-0.00
PittsburghACC0.150.0966.6755.160.050.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.190.070.003.89-0.19-0.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.190.0723.0839.11-0.10-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.110.0716.6735.38-0.07-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.190.0735.7146.79-0.06-0.00
IPFWSum0.090.0735.2937.84-0.03-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.090.0766.6767.030.030.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0750.0053.230.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.170.0735.2941.31-0.05-0.01
FurmanSC0.090.0723.5328.67-0.05-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0071.030.000.03
BradleyMVC0.080.0630.0031.23-0.03-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0653.3353.290.010.00
Green BayHorz0.080.0678.9577.960.050.04
MercerSC0.080.0647.3751.60-0.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.090.0633.3329.95-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.080.0678.9577.540.050.04
ToledoMAC0.000.0657.8959.450.000.01
VermontAE0.080.0650.0056.780.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.160.0666.6765.570.050.02
DePaulBE0.160.0652.3843.130.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.150.0665.0068.100.050.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0615.7926.55-0.05-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0625.0030.05-0.04-0.02
FIUCUSA0.080.0643.7540.74-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.080.0661.1162.930.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.080.0644.4444.57-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.0622.2232.03-0.08-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.060.004.40-0.14-0.06
KentuckySEC0.140.06100.0098.440.140.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0633.3335.68-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.065.5616.72-0.00-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0635.2931.61-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0660.0047.800.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.070.065.2611.93-0.07-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0652.3857.180.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0655.0061.960.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0622.2237.84-0.04-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0636.3636.13-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.070.0633.3345.67-0.02-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0670.5961.580.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0670.0058.840.000.01
TexasB120.000.0673.6868.840.000.02
WyomingMWC0.070.0683.3376.420.050.03
NorthwesternB100.110.0452.6343.260.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.110.0426.6730.45-0.05-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0335.2934.93-0.03-0.01
AkronMAC0.090.0366.6762.710.030.01
DartmouthIvy0.090.0350.0050.790.000.00
DuquesneA100.090.0329.4127.40-0.04-0.01
IowaB100.090.0365.0063.320.030.01
Kent St.MAC0.090.0372.2264.420.040.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0361.1158.450.020.01
MaineAE0.090.035.268.87-0.08-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0310.5315.25-0.07-0.02
Notre DameACC0.090.0390.0082.690.070.02
OhioMAC0.090.0341.1838.69-0.02-0.01
TulsaAmer0.090.0377.7872.280.050.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0361.5465.600.020.01
HarvardIvy0.070.0364.2965.330.020.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0315.7918.63-0.05-0.02
IndianaB100.070.0378.9568.920.040.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0338.8940.51-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0372.2272.450.030.01
ElonCAA0.070.0347.3744.07-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0337.5042.74-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.070.0311.7617.50-0.05-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0344.4444.98-0.01-0.00
MarquetteBE0.070.0352.6346.670.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0370.5977.580.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0389.4782.920.050.02
Penn St.B100.070.0365.0051.740.020.00
RiderMAAC0.070.0361.9062.350.020.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0317.6526.23-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.070.0340.0037.69-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0344.4434.61-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0366.6760.550.020.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0368.7569.140.030.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0380.0075.860.040.01
OklahomaB120.070.0363.1664.380.020.01
UABCUSA0.070.0347.3749.76-0.00-0.00