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Through games of Feb 6, 2016.


UC Riverside

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:263.8
Current RPI:276
Expected SOS:293
Current SOS:335
Current Record:11-13
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:4-6
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-8
Current OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC RPI:253
Expected OOC SOS:340



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14208.50.17%
15-15224.12.41%
14-16240.512.45%
13-17257.032.21%
12-18271.436.48%
11-19284.316.27%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Riverside.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-19Santa Clara (263.6)WCCH77-63W100%0.0
11-21San Francisco (226.0)WCCA58-57L0%0.0
11-24Delaware St. (347.9)MEACH81-55W100%0.0
11-27Rice (291.8)CUSAA87-81L0%0.0
11-29Lamar (330.8)SlndA69-74W100%0.0
12-3Northern Colorado (311.7)BSkyH77-66W100%0.0
12-6Loyola Marymount (242.7)WCCA77-76L0%0.0
12-12UNLV (121.2)MWCH62-73L0%0.0
12-15Houston Baptist (201.2)SlndA72-59L0%0.0
12-18Abilene Christian (327.6)SlndA56-60W100%0.0
12-22Denver (200.4)SumH63-54W100%0.0
12-28Morgan St. (329.5)MEACA72-81W100%0.0
12-30Ohio (109.8)MACA81-59L0%0.0
1-2Cal St. Bakersfield (143.1)WACH48-67L0%0.0
1-7Cal St. Fullerton (284.8)BWH73-79L0%0.0
1-9UC Irvine (69.7)BWA84-68L0%0.0
1-14Hawaii (91.8)BWH71-80L0%0.0
1-16Cal St. Northridge (276.4)BWA72-75W100%0.0
1-21UC Davis (253.5)BWA58-55L0%0.0
1-23Long Beach St. (101.4)BWH74-72W100%0.0
1-28Cal Poly (215.6)BWA68-72W100%0.0
1-30Cal St. Fullerton (284.8)BWA71-81W100%0.0
2-3Cal St. Northridge (276.4)BWH71-73L0%0.0
2-6UC Davis (253.5)BWH49-50L0%0.0
2-13Cal Poly (215.6)BWH0-051%0.3
2-18UC Santa Barbara (122.4)BWH0-036%-4.0
2-25Hawaii (91.8)BWA0-08%-15.5
2-27Long Beach St. (101.4)BWA0-012%-12.6
3-3UC Santa Barbara (122.4)BWA0-016%-10.7
3-5UC Irvine (69.7)BWH0-027%-6.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Riverside's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Riverside's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Riverside.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC RiversideBW26.5126.3847.5042.84-1.33-3.78
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.714.2626.3226.90-2.23-1.97
UC IrvineBW2.584.2471.4370.531.111.74
Cal St. FullertonBW4.724.2333.3330.86-1.57-1.62
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.604.2042.8648.57-0.09-0.12
Cal PolyBW2.644.2031.5835.37-0.97-1.23
Long Beach St.BW2.544.1847.6251.90-0.120.16
HawaiiBW2.444.1783.3380.521.632.54
UC DavisBW4.684.1733.3331.72-1.56-1.52
Loyola MarymountWCC2.532.0236.3636.29-0.69-0.55
San FranciscoWCC2.421.9652.3848.270.12-0.07
Santa ClaraWCC2.311.8731.8232.29-0.84-0.66
LamarSlnd2.291.8533.3333.24-0.76-0.62
Houston BaptistSlnd2.241.8250.0048.310.00-0.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.191.7933.3333.04-0.73-0.61
Morgan St.MEAC2.281.7921.0527.76-1.32-0.80
RiceCUSA2.241.7625.0027.20-1.12-0.80
Delaware St.MEAC2.241.7610.0014.01-1.79-1.27
UNLVMWC2.141.7347.6253.59-0.100.12
DenverSum2.181.7356.5253.650.280.13
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC2.141.7065.0066.390.640.56
Northern ColoradoBSky2.131.7030.0027.96-0.85-0.75
OhioMAC2.081.6760.0057.970.420.27
San DiegoWCC0.530.3931.8229.14-0.19-0.16
Saint Mary'sWCC0.390.3985.7185.390.280.27
PortlandWCC0.540.3340.0038.50-0.11-0.08
PacificWCC0.290.2925.0028.89-0.14-0.12
PepperdineWCC0.280.2956.5257.280.040.04
Fresno St.MWC0.400.2761.9059.650.090.05
SeattleWAC0.260.2547.6244.99-0.01-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.210.2445.0049.37-0.02-0.00
BYUWCC0.230.2366.6769.500.080.09
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.2275.0071.510.050.09
Incarnate WordSlnd0.160.2256.2556.100.020.03
NevadaMWC0.250.2155.0054.530.030.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.200.2165.2268.610.060.08
UCLAP120.250.2156.5253.250.030.01
Colorado St.MWC0.240.2152.3850.420.010.00
Boise St.MWC0.240.2063.6462.520.070.05
IdahoBSky0.250.1954.5554.930.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.250.1831.5837.72-0.09-0.04
USCP120.150.1878.2673.060.090.08
Idaho St.BSky0.300.1845.0046.14-0.03-0.01
Oregon St.P120.200.1861.9056.430.050.02
South DakotaSum0.240.1841.6741.24-0.04-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.280.1878.2676.870.160.09
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1740.9149.26-0.02-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.160.1670.5975.550.070.08
Nicholls St.Slnd0.220.1614.2917.91-0.16-0.10
Utah ValleyWAC0.200.1533.3334.94-0.07-0.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.210.1542.1145.73-0.03-0.01
Arizona St.P120.150.1554.1751.650.010.00
Air ForceMWC0.190.1545.4538.48-0.02-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1577.2776.850.080.08
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1515.0022.35-0.07-0.08
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1556.5256.310.020.02
OregonP120.140.1481.8278.150.090.08
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1317.6529.25-0.07-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.160.1215.0027.27-0.12-0.06
Montana St.BSky0.100.1240.9143.72-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.100.1265.2261.080.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.200.1215.0015.36-0.14-0.08
HowardMEAC0.160.1238.1040.73-0.04-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.150.1220.8323.63-0.09-0.06
IPFWSum0.100.1270.8368.570.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.150.1263.6462.150.040.03
WyomingMWC0.140.1243.4842.51-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.140.1252.3854.010.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.1281.8280.040.030.07
HamptonMEAC0.050.1257.1459.450.010.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.1230.4335.11-0.02-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.200.1263.1658.810.050.02
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1256.5262.780.010.03
ArizonaP120.140.1179.1778.310.080.07
Oklahoma St.B120.090.1147.8344.37-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.090.1172.7372.030.040.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.1014.2915.47-0.07-0.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.160.0921.0527.81-0.10-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.110.0927.7834.49-0.05-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.160.0918.7526.45-0.10-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.0982.6181.140.060.06
Austin PeayOVC0.100.0937.5040.51-0.03-0.02
UMBCAE0.100.0924.0026.41-0.05-0.04
UTSACUSA0.100.0913.6413.63-0.07-0.07
TCUB120.160.0943.4837.22-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.0921.0523.59-0.06-0.05
MontanaBSky0.100.0957.8962.290.020.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0965.2262.900.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.140.0965.0069.270.040.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.0950.0053.300.000.01
VirginiaACC0.100.0982.6178.050.060.05
New MexicoMWC0.140.0960.8762.990.030.02
KansasB120.100.0981.8277.570.060.05
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0830.4326.49-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0875.0076.230.050.04
Utah St.MWC0.090.0845.0046.77-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.100.064.357.73-0.09-0.05
UMKCWAC0.100.0628.5732.71-0.04-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.0610.0013.12-0.08-0.05
AuburnSEC0.050.0640.9136.61-0.01-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0660.0060.080.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0616.6720.14-0.04-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0654.1755.090.000.01
OklahomaB120.050.0686.3682.100.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0678.2678.040.030.03
Texas TechB120.050.0659.0953.130.010.00
RiderMAAC0.110.0641.6743.53-0.02-0.01
MichiganB100.100.0669.5766.200.040.02
NebraskaB100.100.0654.1751.820.010.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0659.0959.660.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0625.0024.37-0.05-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.050.0647.3749.97-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.000.0654.1757.520.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.100.0656.5257.000.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.0631.8236.12-0.04-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0629.1733.14-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0625.0033.22-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.0635.0035.99-0.03-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0663.6459.230.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0652.3847.050.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0659.0958.900.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0634.7840.92-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0673.9170.060.020.02
IUPUISum0.090.0640.0039.79-0.02-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.100.0663.6459.380.030.01
LipscombASun0.090.0625.0029.27-0.04-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0671.4368.720.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.100.0650.0051.170.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0631.8230.48-0.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0659.0959.640.020.01
North TexasCUSA0.100.0633.3332.99-0.03-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.040.0639.1341.12-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0625.0022.77-0.02-0.03
Seton HallBE0.050.0673.9169.840.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.090.0633.3334.19-0.03-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0631.5831.99-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.040.0627.7829.14-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0652.3845.670.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.050.0331.5831.77-0.02-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0334.7836.50-0.02-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0354.1749.290.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0321.7423.66-0.03-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0354.1750.940.000.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0355.0053.160.010.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0368.0067.970.020.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0328.5729.64-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0370.8370.930.020.01
ColoradoP120.050.0369.5765.300.020.01
High PointBSth0.050.0355.0057.470.010.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.035.007.24-0.04-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0345.0043.21-0.01-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0340.9140.64-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0313.6415.80-0.03-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0365.2259.750.020.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0363.6465.020.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0350.0051.170.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0321.7422.74-0.03-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0321.7423.31-0.03-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0336.8441.46-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0340.9145.30-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0322.7327.18-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0347.6252.06-0.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0369.5764.880.020.01
IndianaB100.050.0379.1774.030.030.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0347.6252.67-0.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.410.020.01
PennIvy0.050.0338.8937.66-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.11-0.04-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0370.0069.100.020.01
TempleAmer0.050.0363.6459.810.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0366.6762.630.020.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0359.0960.070.010.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0363.6459.960.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0382.6179.430.030.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0366.6770.540.020.01
UtahP120.050.0372.7368.540.020.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0352.1751.930.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0345.4546.29-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0333.3335.50-0.02-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0372.7376.350.020.02