UC Riverside

Conference:	BW
Expected RPI:	255.7
Current RPI:	256
Expected SOS:	269
Current SOS:	301
Current Record:	9-12
Expected Record:	11-17
Current Conf Record:	5-5
Expected Conf Record:	7-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.33%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-7
Current OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC RPI:	229
Expected OOC SOS:	226

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-13	197.1	0.12%
14-14	209.6	1.24%
13-15	226.5	8.57%
12-16	242.0	24.71%
11-17	258.3	35.67%
10-18	272.1	23.37%
9-19	284.0	6.31%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Riverside.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-13	Texas El Paso (178.9)	CUSA	A	52-41	L	0%	0.0
11-18	Youngstown St. (154.7)	Horz	A	53-49	L	0%	0.0
11-24	Villanova (100.2)	BE	N	46-71	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Boston College (245.6)	ACC	N	66-62	L	0%	0.0
11-27	Washington St. (165.9)	P12	N	64-63	W	100%	0.0
11-30	Southern California (233.2)	P12	H	35-56	L	0%	0.0
12-11	Montana St. (260.8)	BSky	A	73-75	W	100%	0.0
12-17	Nevada (64.1)	WAC	A	71-47	L	0%	0.0
12-19	San Diego St. (26.1)	MWC	A	80-55	L	0%	0.0
12-22	San Jose St. (280.7)	WAC	H	66-64	W	100%	0.0
12-28	Texas San Antonio (170.6)	Slnd	A	65-70	W	100%	0.0
1-2	Cal St. Northridge (309.3)	BW	H	52-63	L	0%	0.0
1-5	UC Davis (342.3)	BW	A	58-60	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Pacific (264.2)	BW	A	57-64	W	100%	0.0
1-12	UC Santa Barbara (147.1)	BW	H	79-70	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Cal Poly (194.2)	BW	H	60-53	W	100%	0.0
1-18	Cal St. Fullerton (167.6)	BW	A	72-61	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Long Beach St. (38.6)	BW	H	70-77	L	0%	0.0
1-28	UC Irvine (259.3)	BW	A	65-57	L	0%	0.0
2-2	Pacific (264.2)	BW	H	52-60	L	0%	0.0
2-4	UC Davis (342.3)	BW	H	59-54	W	100%	0.0
2-9	Cal Poly (194.2)	BW	A	0-0		10%	-13.7
2-11	UC Santa Barbara (147.1)	BW	A	0-0		11%	-13.5
2-15	Cal St. Fullerton (167.6)	BW	H	0-0		32%	-5.1
2-18	Southern Utah (233.2)	Sum	H	0-0		52%	0.4
2-22	Cal St. Northridge (309.3)	BW	A	0-0		51%	0.2
2-25	Long Beach St. (38.6)	BW	A	0-0		3%	-20.8
3-3	UC Irvine (259.3)	BW	H	0-0		53%	0.7

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Riverside's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UC Riverside's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UC Riverside.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UC Riverside	BW	26.42	26.43	44.55	41.28	-2.88	-4.61
UC Davis	BW	5.41	4.63	0.00	5.71	-5.41	-4.10
Cal Poly	BW	3.19	4.59	52.38	57.64	0.15	0.70
Long Beach St.	BW	3.09	4.53	70.00	71.52	1.24	1.95
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	3.03	4.52	63.16	65.33	0.80	1.39
Pacific	BW	5.35	4.52	33.33	36.56	-1.78	-1.22
UC Irvine	BW	3.20	4.52	31.58	32.18	-1.18	-1.61
Cal St. Northridge	BW	3.08	4.51	16.67	18.11	-2.05	-2.88
UC Santa Barbara	BW	3.08	4.51	58.82	59.18	0.54	0.83
San Jose St.	WAC	2.83	2.17	28.57	27.92	-1.21	-0.96
San Diego St.	MWC	2.67	2.04	85.00	77.30	1.87	1.12
Southern California	P12	2.61	2.01	21.74	22.58	-1.47	-1.10
Southern Utah	Sum	0.28	1.94	45.45	44.10	-0.03	-0.23
Nevada	WAC	2.55	1.91	80.00	75.54	1.53	0.98
Montana St.	BSky	2.44	1.88	47.37	43.38	-0.13	-0.25
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	2.49	1.85	60.00	62.89	0.50	0.48
Washington St.	P12	2.43	1.84	52.38	49.89	0.12	-0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	2.44	1.82	40.91	41.31	-0.44	-0.32
Boston College	ACC	2.38	1.79	27.27	23.88	-1.08	-0.93
Villanova	BE	2.38	1.79	43.48	43.65	-0.31	-0.23
Youngstown St.	Horz	2.38	1.79	50.00	51.49	0.00	0.05
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.70	0.62	47.83	47.88	-0.03	-0.03
Hawaii	WAC	0.58	0.39	57.14	53.02	0.08	0.02
Fresno St.	WAC	0.34	0.35	39.13	44.46	-0.07	-0.04
Idaho	WAC	0.45	0.32	50.00	51.46	0.00	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.41	0.30	28.57	26.31	-0.17	-0.14
Utah St.	WAC	0.29	0.30	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.35	0.29	40.91	44.29	-0.06	-0.03
Washington	P12	0.29	0.29	69.57	66.59	0.11	0.10
California	P12	0.34	0.29	75.00	74.62	0.17	0.14
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.33	0.29	82.61	81.43	0.22	0.18
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.28	0.25	30.00	33.22	-0.11	-0.09
UCLA	P12	0.28	0.25	54.55	56.78	0.03	0.03
Stanford	P12	0.34	0.22	69.57	68.33	0.13	0.08
Weber St.	BSky	0.17	0.20	80.00	76.71	0.10	0.11
Boise St.	MWC	0.18	0.20	42.86	41.08	-0.03	-0.04
Seattle	ind	0.17	0.19	22.22	32.99	-0.10	-0.07
New Mexico	MWC	0.27	0.19	81.82	81.02	0.17	0.12
Arizona St.	P12	0.22	0.19	30.43	31.40	-0.09	-0.07
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.21	0.18	69.57	69.00	0.08	0.07
San Diego	WCC	0.18	0.17	33.33	33.82	-0.06	-0.05
Pepperdine	WCC	0.23	0.16	31.82	33.75	-0.08	-0.05
Montana	BSky	0.17	0.16	71.43	73.99	0.07	0.08
Utah	P12	0.22	0.16	18.18	15.00	-0.14	-0.11
Bryant	NEC	0.22	0.16	8.33	10.84	-0.18	-0.12
Arizona	P12	0.16	0.15	66.67	68.55	0.05	0.06
Idaho St.	BSky	0.12	0.13	31.82	32.98	-0.04	-0.05
Portland St.	BSky	0.18	0.13	42.86	45.93	-0.03	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.18	0.13	21.74	21.75	-0.10	-0.08
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.13	13.64	16.23	-0.04	-0.09
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.06	0.13	30.00	31.40	-0.02	-0.05
Wyoming	MWC	0.12	0.13	76.19	70.71	0.06	0.05
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.11	0.13	42.86	43.52	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.17	0.12	66.67	60.84	0.06	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.16	0.12	69.57	64.49	0.06	0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.12	0.10	75.00	76.02	0.06	0.05
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.12	0.10	25.00	23.73	-0.06	-0.05
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.10	80.77	80.77	0.03	0.06
San Francisco	WCC	0.17	0.10	56.52	53.76	0.02	0.01
Troy	SB	0.06	0.10	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.04
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.06	0.10	85.71	82.22	0.04	0.06
Creighton	MVC	0.06	0.10	84.00	82.62	0.04	0.06
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.09	54.17	47.95	0.01	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.09	73.91	68.41	0.05	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.11	0.09	79.17	74.20	0.06	0.05
North Carolina	ACC	0.11	0.09	86.96	83.30	0.08	0.06
Pittsburgh	BE	0.11	0.09	62.50	59.52	0.03	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.11	0.09	78.26	78.42	0.06	0.05
Texas Christian	MWC	0.11	0.09	57.14	49.57	0.02	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.09	47.83	42.19	-0.00	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.11	0.09	44.44	48.16	-0.01	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.10	0.09	23.81	33.67	-0.05	-0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.10	0.09	63.64	63.17	0.03	0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.16	0.09	47.62	44.58	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.07	52.17	50.01	0.00	0.00
Butler	Horz	0.06	0.07	50.00	50.81	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.07	28.57	34.11	-0.03	-0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.11	0.07	82.61	81.41	0.07	0.04
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.07	47.83	48.88	-0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.07	25.00	28.48	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.07	28.57	29.05	-0.05	-0.03
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.00	0.07	33.33	32.18	-0.00	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.00	0.07	34.78	35.53	-0.00	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.07	54.17	54.76	0.00	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.07	59.09	57.27	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.07	18.18	19.91	-0.07	-0.04
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.00	0.07	34.78	35.19	-0.00	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.00	0.07	61.90	63.52	0.00	0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.00	0.07	48.00	50.28	-0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.07	26.32	29.64	-0.03	-0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.00	0.07	26.32	28.82	-0.00	-0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.00	0.07	73.91	75.47	0.00	0.03
Valparaiso	Horz	0.06	0.07	65.22	63.55	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.00	0.07	52.63	48.32	0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.07	82.61	80.50	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.07	35.00	39.40	-0.02	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.11	0.07	56.52	57.81	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.07	41.67	40.47	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.11	0.06	33.33	35.20	-0.04	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	47.37	42.13	-0.00	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.06	0.06	65.22	63.69	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.11	0.06	41.67	38.63	-0.02	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.06	52.17	58.49	0.00	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.11	0.06	26.32	29.85	-0.05	-0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.06	90.91	87.78	0.04	0.05
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	17.39	20.75	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.06	0.06	76.19	75.98	0.03	0.03
Texas St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	22.22	27.56	-0.03	-0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	44.44	45.20	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.10	0.06	66.67	62.69	0.03	0.02
Boston University	AE	0.10	0.06	50.00	53.83	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.06	69.57	65.37	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.06	47.83	45.51	-0.00	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.06	39.13	42.16	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.06	80.00	76.67	0.06	0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.06	66.67	63.50	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.10	0.06	70.83	64.53	0.04	0.02
Providence	BE	0.10	0.06	52.00	48.78	0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.06	47.62	46.51	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.06	54.55	48.54	0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.06	38.10	37.80	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.06	77.27	77.70	0.06	0.03
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.06	61.90	58.61	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.06	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.06	56.52	55.22	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.06	47.83	43.63	-0.00	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.03	68.18	67.98	0.02	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.00	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.00	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.03	68.42	66.51	0.02	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.03	68.00	70.06	0.02	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.06	0.03	21.74	22.75	-0.03	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.03	38.10	40.84	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.06	0.03	90.91	83.90	0.05	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.03	24.00	24.86	-0.03	-0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.03	9.09	12.82	-0.05	-0.02
Elon	SC	0.06	0.03	52.38	49.77	0.00	-0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.00	0.03	79.17	80.14	0.00	0.02
Longwood	ind	0.06	0.03	28.57	25.79	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.03	54.17	57.11	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.03	35.00	40.74	-0.02	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.03	47.62	48.81	-0.00	-0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.00	0.03	27.78	29.77	-0.00	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	42.11	49.86	-0.01	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.00	0.03	66.67	69.71	0.00	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.03	81.82	81.50	0.03	0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.03	14.29	14.31	-0.04	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.03	61.90	67.29	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.03	55.00	54.45	0.01	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.94	0.01	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.03	47.83	42.67	-0.00	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.00	0.03	27.78	29.51	-0.00	-0.01
American	Pat	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.79	0.02	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.03	20.83	25.85	-0.03	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.00	0.03	71.43	66.55	0.00	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.00	0.03	65.22	62.35	0.00	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.03	47.83	50.66	-0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.00	0.03	82.61	79.93	0.00	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.03	44.44	41.65	-0.01	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.00	0.03	72.73	71.57	0.00	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.00	0.03	80.95	77.45	0.00	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.03	90.48	87.91	0.04	0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.03	-0.01	-0.00
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.03	70.83	68.83	0.02	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.03	59.09	59.78	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.00	0.03	60.87	53.44	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.65	0.02	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.00	0.03	69.57	71.58	0.00	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.03	91.67	87.92	0.04	0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.03	28.00	28.87	-0.02	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.75	-0.02	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.00	0.03	65.22	62.67	0.00	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.80	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.03	20.83	20.61	-0.03	-0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.00	0.03	50.00	46.87	0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.03	44.00	45.88	-0.01	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.42	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.65	0.02	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.03	43.48	40.24	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.03	68.18	68.98	0.02	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.00	0.05	0.02
Temple	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	75.07	0.03	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.81	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	66.67	65.98	0.02	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	41.17	-0.00	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.03	70.83	62.75	0.02	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.03	50.00	44.98	0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.60	-0.01	-0.01