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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


UC Riverside

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:330.0
Current RPI:330
Expected SOS:296
Current SOS:296
Current Record:6-21
Expected Record:6-21
Current Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-14
Current OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC RPI:329
Expected OOC SOS:182



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-21330.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Riverside.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Portland (233.0)WCCA71-55L0%0.0
11-16UNLV (242.0)MWCA74-62L0%0.0
11-25Utah (83.0)P12A85-67L0%0.0
11-30UCLA (16.0)P12A98-56L0%0.0
12-13Santa Clara (126.0)WCCA77-53L0%0.0
12-17Montana (221.0)BSkyH63-71L0%0.0
12-20Northern Colorado (286.0)BSkyA77-61L0%0.0
12-22Denver (207.0)SumA73-55L0%0.0
12-28Utah Valley (206.0)WACH64-73L0%0.0
12-31Grand Canyon (131.0)WACH76-56W100%0.0
1-4Cal St. Northridge (312.0)BWA82-76L0%0.0
1-7Long Beach St. (214.0)BWA70-64L0%0.0
1-12UC Davis (166.0)BWH61-55W100%0.0
1-18Cal St. Fullerton (269.0)BWA63-71W100%0.0
1-21UC Santa Barbara (324.0)BWH65-55W100%0.0
1-25Hawaii (300.0)BWA64-70W100%0.0
1-28Cal St. Northridge (312.0)BWH59-63L0%0.0
2-2Hawaii (300.0)BWH63-72L0%0.0
2-4Cal Poly (297.0)BWA56-67W100%0.0
2-9Long Beach St. (214.0)BWH71-78L0%0.0
2-11UC Davis (166.0)BWA77-63L0%0.0
2-16Cal St. Fullerton (269.0)BWH55-56L0%0.0
2-18UC Irvine (135.0)BWA79-60L0%0.0
2-23UC Santa Barbara (324.0)BWA68-61L0%0.0
2-25Cal Poly (297.0)BWH77-84L0%0.0
3-1UC Irvine (135.0)BWH56-68L0%0.0
3-9UC Irvine (135.0)BWN76-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Riverside's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Riverside's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Riverside.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC RiversideBW26.4426.4423.6223.62-13.95-13.95
UC IrvineBW6.586.5853.3353.330.440.44
UC DavisBW4.914.9163.3363.331.311.31
Long Beach St.BW4.824.8236.6736.67-1.28-1.28
Cal St. FullertonBW4.814.8151.8551.850.180.18
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.754.7530.7730.77-1.83-1.83
Cal PolyBW4.724.7229.6329.63-1.92-1.92
HawaiiBW4.724.7244.4444.44-0.52-0.52
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.654.6516.0016.00-3.16-3.16
UCLAP122.112.1187.5087.501.581.58
Santa ClaraWCC2.092.0948.3948.39-0.07-0.07
PortlandWCC2.072.0726.6726.67-0.96-0.96
Utah ValleyWAC2.042.0440.7440.74-0.38-0.38
Grand CanyonWAC1.981.9871.4371.430.850.85
UtahP121.981.9860.7160.710.420.42
Northern ColoradoBSky1.941.9430.7730.77-0.75-0.75
DenverSum1.921.9251.7251.720.070.07
UNLVMWC1.921.9232.2632.26-0.68-0.68
MontanaBSky1.891.8948.3948.39-0.06-0.06
CaliforniaP120.330.3363.6463.640.090.09
San DiegoWCC0.310.3140.0040.00-0.06-0.06
WashingtonP120.310.3129.0329.03-0.13-0.13
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.300.3067.8667.860.110.11
ArizonaP120.300.3088.2488.240.230.23
PacificWCC0.290.2931.2531.25-0.11-0.11
SeattleWAC0.290.2937.0437.04-0.08-0.08
New Mexico St.WAC0.270.2783.3383.330.180.18
PepperdineWCC0.270.2726.6726.67-0.13-0.13
South Dakota St.Sum0.260.2650.0050.000.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.260.2654.8454.840.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.250.2556.6756.670.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.250.2561.2961.290.060.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.230.2387.5087.500.170.17
Idaho St.BSky0.230.2313.3313.33-0.17-0.17
Portland St.BSky0.220.2242.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.220.2237.9337.93-0.05-0.05
USCP120.210.2172.7372.730.100.10
Northern ArizonaBSky0.210.2125.8125.81-0.10-0.10
Washington St.P120.210.2140.0040.00-0.04-0.04
NevadaMWC0.210.2182.3582.350.140.14
Oregon St.P120.210.2112.9012.90-0.15-0.15
Southern UtahBSky0.190.1912.9012.90-0.14-0.14
Loyola MarymountWCC0.180.1848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.180.1845.4545.45-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.180.1896.9796.970.170.17
IdahoBSky0.180.1855.1755.170.020.02
OregonP120.180.1884.8584.850.120.12
San Jose St.MWC0.180.1842.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
StanfordP120.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
Colorado St.MWC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Air ForceMWC0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
WyomingMWC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.130.1310.3410.34-0.10-0.10
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.130.1378.5778.570.070.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
Texas A&MSEC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
ColoradoP120.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
South DakotaSum0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1260.7160.710.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1129.4129.41-0.05-0.05
North DakotaBSky0.100.1067.8667.860.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
Boise St.MWC0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleACC0.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
KansasB120.090.0987.5087.500.070.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0953.5753.570.010.01
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
UTEPCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.070.0764.7164.710.020.02
SMUAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
ButlerBE0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
TroySB0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
IUPUISum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.060.0677.1477.140.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
OaklandHorz0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
TexasB120.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
OklahomaB120.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00