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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


UC Riverside

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:319.0
Current RPI:319
Expected SOS:279
Current SOS:279
Current Record:8-21
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-12
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-8
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:332
Expected OOC SOS:329



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-21319.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Riverside.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8San Diego St. (15.0)MWCA77-41L0%0.0
11-13Pepperdine (159.0)WCCH66-69L0%0.0
11-16Montana St. (275.0)BSkyH72-67W100%0.0
11-23Southern Utah (346.0)BSkyA59-74W100%0.0
11-25Seattle (267.0)WACA69-68L0%0.0
12-2Loyola Marymount (179.0)WCCH69-73L0%0.0
12-14Air Force (251.0)MWCA62-52L0%0.0
12-16Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyA63-60L0%0.0
12-20UIC (315.0)HorzH57-56W100%0.0
12-22Northern Illinois (217.0)MACH64-71L0%0.0
12-29Sacramento St. (263.0)BSkyA69-67L0%0.0
1-4North Texas (195.0)CUSAA76-72L0%0.0
1-9Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWA78-73L0%0.0
1-11UC Irvine (111.0)BWH52-72L0%0.0
1-16UC Davis (326.0)BWA69-81W100%0.0
1-18Hawaii (160.0)BWA100-69L0%0.0
1-23UC Santa Barbara (107.0)BWH65-68L0%0.0
1-25Cal Poly (208.0)BWH61-58W100%0.0
1-30Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWA93-89L0%0.0
2-6Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWH72-69W100%0.0
2-8Long Beach St. (166.0)BWH76-88L0%0.0
2-13Hawaii (160.0)BWH76-87L0%0.0
2-15UC Irvine (111.0)BWA70-52L0%0.0
2-20UC Santa Barbara (107.0)BWA55-54L0%0.0
2-22Cal Poly (208.0)BWA69-64L0%0.0
3-1Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWH106-105W100%0.0
3-6UC Davis (326.0)BWH78-65W100%0.0
3-8Long Beach St. (166.0)BWA74-67L0%0.0
3-13UC Irvine (111.0)BWN63-43L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Riverside's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Riverside's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Riverside.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC RiversideBW26.4026.4025.6025.60-12.88-12.88
UC IrvineBW6.106.1062.0762.071.471.47
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.614.6145.1645.16-0.45-0.45
Cal PolyBW4.524.5235.7135.71-1.29-1.29
Cal St. FullertonBW4.514.5134.4834.48-1.40-1.40
Long Beach St.BW4.444.4439.2939.29-0.95-0.95
UC DavisBW4.394.3925.9325.93-2.11-2.11
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.384.3865.3865.381.351.35
HawaiiBW4.354.3559.2659.260.810.81
Sacramento St.BSky2.102.1040.7440.74-0.39-0.39
Montana St.BSky2.072.0742.8642.86-0.30-0.30
SeattleWAC2.012.0137.0437.04-0.52-0.52
Southern UtahBSky1.981.983.703.70-1.84-1.84
PepperdineWCC1.921.9244.8344.83-0.20-0.20
Northern ColoradoBSky1.911.9153.5753.570.140.14
Loyola MarymountWCC1.901.9036.6736.67-0.51-0.51
Air ForceMWC1.841.8433.3333.33-0.61-0.61
San Diego St.MWC1.821.8286.6786.671.331.33
UICHorz1.721.7214.2914.29-1.23-1.23
North TexasCUSA1.721.7242.8642.86-0.25-0.25
Northern IllinoisMAC1.721.7243.3343.33-0.23-0.23
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.430.4344.8344.83-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.360.3645.1645.16-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.340.3448.3948.39-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.330.3348.3948.39-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.300.3053.5753.570.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.300.3051.7251.720.010.01
UNLVMWC0.290.2960.6160.610.060.06
PortlandWCC0.290.2948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.290.2917.2417.24-0.19-0.19
Weber St.BSky0.270.2760.7160.710.060.06
Utah St.MWC0.270.2754.8454.840.030.03
NevadaMWC0.260.2646.8846.88-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.260.2646.6746.67-0.02-0.02
IdahoWAC0.260.2645.4545.45-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.250.2548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.240.2433.3333.33-0.08-0.08
Santa ClaraWCC0.230.2338.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.210.2159.3859.380.040.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
WashingtonP120.200.2053.1253.120.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.180.1873.5373.530.090.09
Colorado St.MWC0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
BYUWCC0.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
Central MichiganMAC0.170.1727.5927.59-0.07-0.07
USCP120.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
WyomingMWC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
Kansas St.B120.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
ArizonaP120.140.1488.2488.240.110.11
OregonP120.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
MissouriSEC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
StanfordP120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
TulsaCUSA0.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
New MexicoMWC0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
GonzagaWCC0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
DenverSum0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
UCLAP120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0946.1546.15-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
Green BayHorz0.090.0977.7877.780.050.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
CreightonBE0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
PittsburghACC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
South DakotaSum0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0893.1093.100.070.07
Arizona St.P120.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
DetroitHorz0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
RiceCUSA0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
TulaneCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UtahP120.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
MichiganB100.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
VCUA100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0681.2581.250.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00