live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 26, 2017.


UC Riverside

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:329.2
Current RPI:331
Expected SOS:305
Current SOS:309
Current Record:6-19
Expected Record:6-20
Current Conf Record:5-10
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-14
Current OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC RPI:332
Expected OOC SOS:211



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-19325.322.90%
6-20330.377.10%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Riverside.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Portland (240.0)WCCA71-55L0%0.0
11-16UNLV (241.1)MWCA74-62L0%0.0
11-25Utah (82.8)P12A85-67L0%0.0
11-30UCLA (15.9)P12A98-56L0%0.0
12-13Santa Clara (144.7)WCCA77-53L0%0.0
12-17Montana (224.0)BSkyH63-71L0%0.0
12-20Northern Colorado (304.0)BSkyA77-61L0%0.0
12-22Denver (204.2)SumA73-55L0%0.0
12-28Utah Valley (211.7)WACH64-73L0%0.0
12-31Grand Canyon (142.4)WACH76-56W100%0.0
1-4Cal St. Northridge (273.0)BWA82-76L0%0.0
1-7Long Beach St. (219.2)BWA70-64L0%0.0
1-12UC Davis (192.9)BWH61-55W100%0.0
1-18Cal St. Fullerton (300.7)BWA63-71W100%0.0
1-21UC Santa Barbara (325.4)BWH65-55W100%0.0
1-25Hawaii (277.6)BWA64-70W100%0.0
1-28Cal St. Northridge (273.0)BWH59-63L0%0.0
2-2Hawaii (277.6)BWH63-72L0%0.0
2-4Cal Poly (288.8)BWA56-67W100%0.0
2-9Long Beach St. (219.2)BWH71-78L0%0.0
2-11UC Davis (192.9)BWA77-63L0%0.0
2-16Cal St. Fullerton (300.7)BWH55-56L0%0.0
2-18UC Irvine (147.4)BWA79-60L0%0.0
2-23UC Santa Barbara (325.4)BWA68-61L0%0.0
2-25Cal Poly (288.8)BWH77-84L0%0.0
3-1UC Irvine (147.4)BWH0-024%-7.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Riverside's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Riverside's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Riverside.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC RiversideBW26.4726.4226.0925.37-12.66-13.02
UC DavisBW4.964.8760.0059.010.990.88
Cal St. FullertonBW4.894.8647.8348.38-0.21-0.16
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.904.8634.7836.67-1.49-1.30
UC IrvineBW3.034.8451.8552.700.110.26
Long Beach St.BW4.964.8433.3334.51-1.65-1.50
HawaiiBW4.894.8350.0048.650.00-0.13
Cal PolyBW4.874.8329.1731.66-2.03-1.77
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.864.8313.0414.03-3.59-3.47
UCLAP122.302.2089.2989.831.811.75
PortlandWCC2.262.1625.0025.00-1.13-1.08
Santa ClaraWCC2.222.1648.2848.28-0.08-0.07
Utah ValleyWAC2.222.1237.5039.16-0.55-0.46
Grand CanyonWAC2.162.0770.3768.820.880.78
UtahP122.152.0660.0060.540.430.43
Northern ColoradoBSky2.102.0225.0027.57-1.05-0.91
DenverSum2.082.0053.5753.570.150.14
UNLVMWC2.081.9932.1431.67-0.74-0.73
MontanaBSky2.041.9646.4346.94-0.15-0.12
WashingtonP120.340.3332.1430.72-0.12-0.13
San DiegoWCC0.330.3041.3841.38-0.06-0.05
CaliforniaP120.260.3067.8666.480.090.10
PacificWCC0.290.3030.0030.00-0.11-0.12
PepperdineWCC0.320.2927.5927.59-0.14-0.13
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.280.2872.0072.040.120.12
Nebraska OmahaSum0.310.2853.5753.570.020.02
SeattleWAC0.270.2840.0039.27-0.05-0.06
Weber St.BSky0.260.2756.0057.060.030.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.260.2780.7781.310.160.17
ArizonaP120.250.2686.6786.550.180.19
Idaho St.BSky0.230.2414.8115.93-0.17-0.16
Portland St.BSky0.220.2445.8345.20-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.250.2463.3363.330.070.06
Sacramento St.BSky0.220.2336.0035.08-0.06-0.07
Northern ArizonaBSky0.260.2325.0025.07-0.13-0.12
Washington St.P120.220.2344.4441.81-0.02-0.04
Oregon St.P120.250.2313.7913.43-0.18-0.17
Southern UtahBSky0.230.2011.1111.98-0.18-0.16
Loyola MarymountWCC0.220.2050.0050.000.000.00
USCP120.220.2072.4173.260.100.09
NevadaMWC0.180.2079.3179.090.110.11
Arizona St.P120.220.2046.6745.71-0.01-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.170.1989.6689.660.140.15
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1944.8344.83-0.01-0.02
OregonP120.210.1986.2186.570.160.14
San Jose St.MWC0.210.1948.0046.19-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.190.1725.9325.17-0.09-0.09
StanfordP120.150.1748.1546.78-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.180.1767.7467.740.060.06
GonzagaWCC0.180.1796.6796.670.160.16
IdahoBSky0.180.1652.0053.420.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.110.1644.4445.15-0.01-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.180.1666.6765.560.060.05
Air ForceMWC0.180.1633.3332.49-0.06-0.06
WyomingMWC0.170.1655.5655.160.020.02
UTSACUSA0.160.1437.0436.94-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.150.1411.1111.53-0.12-0.11
UMKCWAC0.150.1444.4445.62-0.02-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.160.1446.1546.13-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.150.1475.0075.780.080.07
Texas A&MSEC0.150.1453.5752.890.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.150.1321.4322.28-0.08-0.07
New MexicoMWC0.150.1355.1754.850.020.01
ColoradoP120.150.1353.5753.810.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.150.1382.7681.210.100.08
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1362.9662.960.040.03
Montana St.BSky0.150.1348.1547.91-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.140.1366.6767.530.050.05
South DakotaSum0.140.1365.5265.520.040.04
Boise St.MWC0.110.1065.3865.550.040.03
North DakotaBSky0.110.1065.2266.440.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1017.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Fresno St.MWC0.080.1057.6957.830.010.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1055.5655.560.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
LouisvilleACC0.100.1079.3179.060.060.06
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1055.5656.670.010.01
KansasB120.100.1089.6688.490.080.07
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.1023.3323.33-0.04-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0726.9228.27-0.04-0.03
IonaMAAC0.080.0761.2961.290.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0751.7251.720.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0746.1546.81-0.01-0.00
SMUAmer0.080.0786.2186.520.060.05
St. John'sBE0.080.0744.8343.89-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.080.0779.3179.350.050.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0725.0026.00-0.04-0.03
ElonCAA0.080.0755.1755.170.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0732.0030.44-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0782.7682.760.050.04
Seton HallBE0.080.0764.2962.630.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0725.9325.10-0.04-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0762.5062.610.020.02
Texas St.SB0.080.0756.0054.920.010.01
TroySB0.080.0751.8551.300.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0725.9326.04-0.04-0.03
DrakeMVC0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Fort WayneSum0.070.0759.2659.260.010.01
IUPUISum0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.070.0775.8675.860.040.03
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0724.0024.00-0.04-0.03
DukeACC0.070.0675.8674.140.040.03
South AlabamaSB0.070.0642.3142.60-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.040.0678.5778.180.020.04
BinghamtonAE0.070.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.040.0678.5778.180.020.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0640.0041.22-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0674.0774.070.030.03
TexasB120.070.0634.4834.12-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.040.0644.4445.02-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0686.6786.670.050.05
BucknellPat0.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
OklahomaB120.040.0435.7135.48-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.040.0329.6331.85-0.02-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.040.0352.0053.480.000.00
XavierBE0.040.0362.0762.620.010.01
AlbanyAE0.040.0360.0060.000.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0354.1752.440.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0381.4880.740.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.040.0325.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0317.2420.08-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.040.0348.2847.91-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.1752.800.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0330.4330.00-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0382.7682.930.020.02
MichiganB100.030.0365.5265.140.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.0760.370.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0340.7439.61-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0350.0049.020.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0355.1754.740.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.030.0357.1456.900.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0344.8345.81-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0344.4445.39-0.00-0.00