Texas A&M Corpus Chris

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	316.2
Current RPI:	319
Expected SOS:	278
Current SOS:	280
Current Record:	4-19
Expected Record:	6-24
Current Conf Record:	3-7
Expected Conf Record:	5-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.06%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-12
Current OOC Record:	1-12
Expected OOC Record:	1-13
Expected OOC RPI:	336
Expected OOC SOS:	260

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-20	280.0	0.22%
9-21	291.7	1.97%
8-22	300.8	9.77%
7-23	309.7	26.40%
6-24	318.7	35.83%
5-25	326.2	21.38%
4-26	332.2	4.42%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas A&M Corpus Chris.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Oklahoma St. (111.9)	B12	A	71-39	L	0%	0.0
11-14	Denver (91.9)	SB	H	58-65	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Utah St. (132.9)	WAC	H	58-55	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Texas A&M (159.8)	B12	A	56-43	L	0%	0.0
12-1	Texas Tech (235.0)	B12	H	54-61	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Houston (234.1)	CUSA	A	87-66	L	0%	0.0
12-15	South Alabama (196.0)	SB	H	64-66	L	0%	0.0
12-17	West Virginia (28.4)	BE	A	84-64	L	0%	0.0
12-19	Missouri St. (82.6)	MVC	A	66-53	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Bethune Cookman (264.7)	MEAC	N	52-61	L	0%	0.0
12-23	Kennesaw St. (318.8)	ASun	N	65-69	L	0%	0.0
12-28	Rice (176.7)	CUSA	A	78-66	L	0%	0.0
1-4	Lamar (101.7)	Slnd	H	58-74	L	0%	0.0
1-7	McNeese St. (205.8)	Slnd	H	69-71	L	0%	0.0
1-11	Texas San Antonio (170.6)	Slnd	A	49-50	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Southeastern Louisiana (325.8)	Slnd	A	67-55	L	0%	0.0
1-18	Texas Arlington (100.9)	Slnd	H	73-77	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Sam Houston St. (285.7)	Slnd	A	49-50	W	100%	0.0
1-25	Texas St. (317.2)	Slnd	H	74-68	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Stephen F. Austin (256.1)	Slnd	H	49-64	L	0%	0.0
2-1	Nicholls St. (313.6)	Slnd	A	65-61	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Northwestern St. (177.9)	Slnd	A	82-68	L	0%	0.0
2-6	Savannah St. (210.3)	MEAC	A	55-49	L	0%	0.0
2-11	Sam Houston St. (285.7)	Slnd	H	0-0		56%	1.5
2-15	Texas St. (317.2)	Slnd	A	0-0		34%	-4.4
2-18	Central Michigan (271.4)	MAC	A	0-0		23%	-8.2
2-22	Texas San Antonio (170.6)	Slnd	H	0-0		21%	-8.7
2-25	Stephen F. Austin (256.1)	Slnd	A	0-0		16%	-10.9
2-29	Texas Arlington (100.9)	Slnd	A	0-0		4%	-18.8
3-3	Central Arkansas (298.6)	Slnd	H	0-0		69%	5.3

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas A&M Corpus Chris's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Texas A&M Corpus Chris's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Texas A&M Corpus Chris.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	26.19	26.20	18.35	21.37	-16.58	-15.00
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	2.72	4.07	60.00	62.30	0.54	1.00
Texas St.	Slnd	2.73	4.06	23.53	27.13	-1.44	-1.86
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	2.67	4.06	41.18	44.50	-0.47	-0.45
Texas Arlington	Slnd	2.62	4.04	75.00	74.36	1.31	1.97
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	2.67	4.03	27.78	30.46	-1.19	-1.58
Lamar	Slnd	2.56	2.31	60.00	66.13	0.51	0.75
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	2.61	2.31	23.53	26.69	-1.38	-1.08
Northwestern St.	Slnd	2.51	2.28	52.63	52.76	0.13	0.13
Nicholls St.	Slnd	2.62	2.28	21.05	20.79	-1.52	-1.33
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.50	2.28	27.78	29.71	-0.22	-0.92
McNeese St.	Slnd	2.57	2.28	41.18	43.01	-0.45	-0.32
Texas A&M	B12	2.44	1.93	47.62	43.24	-0.12	-0.26
Houston	CUSA	2.35	1.91	45.00	42.53	-0.23	-0.29
Texas Tech	B12	2.44	1.88	27.27	23.29	-1.11	-1.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	2.41	1.86	45.45	40.70	-0.22	-0.35
Rice	CUSA	2.28	1.78	45.00	44.53	-0.23	-0.20
Utah St.	WAC	2.27	1.75	52.17	54.78	0.10	0.17
Missouri St.	MVC	2.31	1.75	52.17	55.63	0.10	0.20
Denver	SB	2.27	1.73	69.57	71.25	0.89	0.73
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	2.22	1.72	33.33	38.85	-0.74	-0.38
Savannah St.	MEAC	2.22	1.72	52.38	56.90	0.11	0.24
South Alabama	SB	2.22	1.70	50.00	50.99	0.00	0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	2.22	1.69	4.35	7.83	-2.03	-1.43
West Virginia	BE	2.22	1.69	65.22	64.85	0.68	0.50
Central Michigan	MAC	0.00	1.67	28.57	32.57	-0.00	-0.58
Texas	B12	0.47	0.41	62.50	62.20	0.12	0.10
Baylor	B12	0.39	0.28	90.91	83.90	0.32	0.19
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.33	0.27	43.48	43.27	-0.04	-0.04
Tulsa	CUSA	0.31	0.26	60.87	59.05	0.07	0.05
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.32	0.24	8.70	8.99	-0.26	-0.20
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.27	0.24	25.00	28.48	-0.13	-0.10
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.27	0.24	42.86	43.52	-0.04	-0.03
North Texas	SB	0.25	0.24	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.25	0.23	56.52	53.94	0.03	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.24	0.23	70.83	66.50	0.10	0.07
Missouri	B12	0.24	0.23	91.67	87.92	0.20	0.17
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.22	0.21	19.05	24.60	-0.13	-0.11
Kansas St.	B12	0.24	0.20	73.91	68.41	0.11	0.07
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.18	38.10	40.84	-0.01	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.26	0.18	54.17	54.76	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.16	0.18	42.11	45.89	-0.03	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.19	0.18	37.50	38.36	-0.05	-0.04
Troy	SB	0.25	0.18	28.57	30.17	-0.11	-0.07
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.30	0.18	43.48	44.26	-0.04	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.16	0.18	33.33	35.20	-0.05	-0.05
Kansas	B12	0.10	0.17	78.26	78.42	0.05	0.10
Florida International	SB	0.11	0.16	33.33	37.11	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.16	0.15	85.71	82.22	0.11	0.10
Tulane	CUSA	0.21	0.15	61.90	58.61	0.05	0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.15	0.15	38.10	37.80	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.25	0.15	78.26	72.28	0.14	0.06
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.20	0.14	22.73	24.64	-0.11	-0.07
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.15	0.14	31.82	34.86	-0.05	-0.04
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.19	0.14	14.29	16.80	-0.14	-0.09
Kent St.	MAC	0.14	0.14	71.43	69.05	0.06	0.05
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.19	0.14	80.77	80.77	0.12	0.09
Western Kentucky	SB	0.16	0.12	34.78	34.46	-0.05	-0.04
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.12	4.35	9.74	-0.05	-0.10
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.15	0.12	56.52	56.80	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.21	0.12	54.17	47.95	0.02	-0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.10	0.12	72.00	72.22	0.05	0.05
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.11	0.12	69.57	69.00	0.04	0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.15	0.12	59.09	59.78	0.03	0.02
Texas Christian	MWC	0.20	0.12	57.14	49.57	0.03	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.12	65.22	62.67	0.02	0.03
Fresno St.	WAC	0.14	0.11	39.13	44.46	-0.03	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.14	0.11	20.83	23.61	-0.08	-0.06
North Florida	ASun	0.14	0.11	48.00	48.07	-0.01	-0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.10	0.11	27.27	26.96	-0.04	-0.05
St. Mary's	WCC	0.19	0.11	90.91	87.78	0.15	0.09
Stetson	ASun	0.19	0.11	30.43	29.57	-0.07	-0.05
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.19	0.11	60.87	59.85	0.04	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.11	0.10	33.33	33.82	-0.04	-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.10	47.62	47.19	-0.00	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.11	0.09	28.57	35.72	-0.05	-0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.09	36.36	39.73	-0.01	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.15	0.09	83.33	84.76	0.10	0.06
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.16	0.09	59.09	57.27	0.03	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.16	0.09	40.91	39.81	-0.03	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.16	0.09	69.57	65.18	0.06	0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.16	0.09	47.62	48.48	-0.01	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.09	66.67	69.71	0.02	0.04
Stanford	P12	0.10	0.09	69.57	68.33	0.04	0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.10	0.09	71.43	66.55	0.04	0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.15	0.09	21.05	24.33	-0.08	-0.05
Drake	MVC	0.09	0.09	52.17	50.01	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.10	0.09	19.05	19.39	-0.06	-0.05
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.09	47.62	48.81	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.10	0.09	66.67	60.84	0.03	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.09	31.82	33.75	-0.02	-0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.14	0.09	62.50	61.43	0.04	0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.10	0.09	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.09	81.82	77.18	0.06	0.05
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.10	0.09	20.83	23.73	-0.06	-0.04
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.09	80.00	76.71	0.03	0.05
Illinois St.	MVC	0.14	0.08	62.50	62.07	0.03	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.09	0.08	56.52	54.28	0.01	0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.14	0.08	80.95	76.42	0.08	0.04
Wichita St.	MVC	0.09	0.08	82.61	80.50	0.06	0.05
Pittsburgh	BE	0.09	0.08	62.50	59.52	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.06	0.06	40.91	34.45	-0.01	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.00	0.06	31.82	32.81	-0.00	-0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.06	0.06	70.83	71.06	0.03	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.06	69.57	64.49	0.02	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	35.00	40.74	-0.02	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	30.00	33.22	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.00	0.06	26.32	28.82	-0.00	-0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	82.61	81.41	0.04	0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.06	36.00	40.36	-0.02	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	13.64	16.23	-0.04	-0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	73.91	75.47	0.03	0.03
California	P12	0.11	0.06	75.00	74.62	0.05	0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.10	0.06	44.44	41.65	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.10	0.06	69.57	71.58	0.04	0.03
Temple	A10	0.05	0.06	77.27	75.07	0.03	0.03
Grambling	SWAC	0.10	0.06	14.29	14.31	-0.07	-0.04
Utah Valley	GWC	0.10	0.06	54.55	57.71	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.00	0.06	55.00	57.42	0.00	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	42.11	49.86	-0.01	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.06	40.91	38.38	-0.00	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.06	34.78	37.18	-0.02	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.06	21.74	25.63	-0.03	-0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	69.57	70.42	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.00	0.06	5.26	7.29	-0.00	-0.05
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.06	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.06	40.91	42.97	-0.00	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.06	69.57	65.37	0.04	0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.09	0.06	27.27	35.05	-0.04	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.09	0.06	75.00	74.01	0.05	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.06	68.18	67.98	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.09	0.06	80.95	77.45	0.06	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.06	79.17	74.20	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.09	0.06	43.48	40.24	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.05	0.06	70.83	73.74	0.02	0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.06	24.00	24.86	-0.02	-0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.09	0.06	84.00	82.62	0.06	0.04
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.09	0.06	50.00	52.04	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.06	47.83	47.08	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.09	0.06	47.83	47.36	-0.00	-0.00
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.06	57.14	53.02	0.01	0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.06	50.00	51.46	0.00	0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.06	43.48	43.89	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.09	0.06	81.82	81.02	0.06	0.03
Seattle	ind	0.09	0.06	22.22	32.99	-0.05	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.06	34.78	32.10	-0.01	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.06	56.52	55.22	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	47.83	42.19	-0.00	-0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.09	0.05	50.00	46.87	0.00	-0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.03	16.67	26.81	-0.03	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.00	0.03	33.33	34.54	-0.00	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	72.73	71.57	0.02	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.03	42.86	43.11	-0.01	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.00	0.03	54.17	49.41	0.00	-0.00
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.00	0.03	82.61	81.43	0.00	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.03	40.91	39.60	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.03	65.00	66.71	0.02	0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.00	0.03	34.78	35.53	-0.00	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.96	83.30	0.04	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.00	0.03	57.69	58.27	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	34.78	38.43	-0.02	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.03	48.00	50.28	-0.00	0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	42.86	41.08	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.00	0.03	68.42	66.51	0.00	0.01
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.81	0.00	0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.00	0.03	14.29	17.12	-0.00	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.89	41.49	-0.01	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.03	79.17	76.62	0.03	0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.03	34.78	38.74	-0.02	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.00	0.03	76.00	72.48	0.00	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	39.13	42.16	-0.01	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.00	0.03	28.57	29.05	-0.00	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	75.73	0.02	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.03	79.17	80.14	0.03	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.03	96.00	93.53	0.05	0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.03	27.27	27.33	-0.02	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.00	0.03	30.00	34.18	-0.00	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.00	0.03	70.83	62.75	0.00	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	23.81	33.67	-0.03	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.03	26.09	28.61	-0.02	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.00	0.03	50.00	44.98	0.00	-0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.03	30.00	31.40	-0.02	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	42.86	45.93	-0.01	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.00	0.03	56.52	53.06	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	31.82	42.18	-0.02	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.03	9.52	11.47	-0.04	-0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.00	0.03	35.00	35.26	-0.00	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.00	0.03	41.67	40.47	-0.00	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.03	76.19	70.71	0.02	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	70.16	0.02	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.03	20.83	25.85	-0.03	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.03	75.00	76.02	0.02	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	0.03	47.83	47.88	-0.00	-0.00
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	31.82	32.98	-0.02	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.00	0.03	60.00	58.30	0.00	0.00
Pacific	BW	0.05	0.03	35.00	37.55	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	Sum	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.27	-0.00	-0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.00	0.03	55.56	58.02	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.03	47.83	43.63	-0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.35	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.00	0.03	80.00	76.67	0.00	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.03	66.67	63.50	0.02	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	47.09	-0.00	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.05	0.03	52.00	48.78	0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.65	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.00	0.03	54.55	48.54	0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.00	0.04	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.03	45.83	45.52	-0.00	-0.00