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Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Texas A&M Corpus Chris

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:112.2
Current RPI:130
Expected SOS:290
Current SOS:324
Current Record:16-5
Expected Record:20-8
Current Conf Record:9-2
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-1
Current OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:68
Expected OOC SOS:211



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-580.41.46%
22-689.212.51%
21-7100.829.00%
20-8114.731.39%
19-9129.818.59%
18-10146.05.89%
17-11160.71.06%
16-12180.20.09%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas A&M Corpus Chris.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-19Texas A&M (27.5)SECA95-70L0%0.0
11-21Texas (28.1)B12A67-56L0%0.0
11-26Furman (157.5)SCN69-73W100%0.0
11-27Elon (138.0)CAAA81-85W100%0.0
12-2Austin Peay (229.3)OVCH61-48W100%0.0
12-5Texas St. (282.4)SBH47-39W100%0.0
12-12UTSA (341.5)CUSAA79-85W100%0.0
12-15Wisconsin (59.0)B10A64-49L0%0.0
12-20Cal Poly (215.2)BWH80-74W100%0.0
12-28Austin Peay (229.3)OVCA70-74W100%0.0
1-5Central Arkansas (319.9)SlndH94-82W100%0.0
1-9McNeese St. (329.6)SlndA68-77W100%0.0
1-11Lamar (336.2)SlndA82-91W100%0.0
1-16Nicholls St. (324.7)SlndH76-71W100%0.0
1-19Northwestern St. (332.0)SlndA79-89W100%0.0
1-23New Orleans (312.3)SlndH97-76W100%0.0
1-26Southeastern Louisiana (337.4)SlndH73-63W100%0.0
1-30Stephen F. Austin (96.4)SlndH61-66L0%0.0
2-2Incarnate Word (189.6)SlndA70-65L0%0.0
2-6Sam Houston St. (188.2)SlndH51-48W100%0.0
2-8Houston Baptist (205.7)SlndH83-76W100%0.0
2-13Stephen F. Austin (96.4)SlndA0-021%-8.9
2-15New Orleans (312.3)SlndA0-069%5.5
2-20Incarnate Word (189.6)SlndH0-075%7.2
2-23Abilene Christian (318.3)SlndA0-077%8.2
2-27Sam Houston St. (188.2)SlndA0-049%-0.2
3-3Houston Baptist (205.7)SlndA0-055%1.5
3-5Abilene Christian (318.3)SlndA0-077%8.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas A&M Corpus Chris's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas A&M Corpus Chris's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas A&M Corpus Chris.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd26.3126.3879.5778.0915.5614.82
Houston BaptistSlnd2.944.4252.6351.970.150.17
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.884.3970.5974.451.192.14
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.684.3835.0035.78-0.21-1.25
Sam Houston St.Slnd2.954.3847.3751.14-0.160.10
Incarnate WordSlnd2.874.3750.0051.140.000.10
New OrleansSlnd2.944.2829.4136.05-1.21-1.19
Austin PeayOVC4.823.6043.4846.03-0.63-0.29
LamarSlnd2.942.7331.5830.45-1.08-1.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.942.6615.0025.75-2.06-1.29
Central ArkansasSlnd2.932.6626.3231.16-1.39-1.00
Nicholls St.Slnd2.972.6419.0521.88-1.84-1.48
McNeese St.Slnd2.952.6218.7530.24-1.84-1.04
Northwestern St.Slnd2.942.6218.7527.74-1.84-1.17
UTSACUSA2.611.9114.2914.11-1.87-1.37
Cal PolyBW2.581.9131.5835.87-0.95-0.54
Texas A&MSEC2.551.8873.9174.501.220.92
Texas St.SB2.511.8538.8939.01-0.56-0.41
TexasB122.481.8565.2260.950.760.40
ElonCAA2.381.7954.5552.220.220.08
FurmanSC2.381.7956.5256.010.310.21
WisconsinB102.381.7960.8755.530.520.20
UC RiversideBW0.180.2345.8341.65-0.01-0.04
OklahomaB120.300.2386.9682.580.220.15
TCUB120.220.2245.8339.35-0.02-0.05
RiceCUSA0.240.2028.5729.66-0.10-0.08
Appalachian St.SB0.230.1926.0929.18-0.11-0.08
BaylorB120.240.1973.9168.480.110.07
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.200.1757.8961.760.030.04
Arizona St.P120.180.1654.1751.670.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.180.1652.1751.940.010.01
IPFWSum0.250.1670.8368.590.100.06
IndianaB100.260.1579.1774.060.150.07
MichiganB100.160.1570.8366.720.070.05
SamfordSC0.240.1541.6742.61-0.04-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.190.1558.3359.960.030.03
CaliforniaP120.130.1465.2262.830.040.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.1447.8348.87-0.01-0.00
TulaneAmer0.130.1436.0034.92-0.04-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.120.1372.7371.660.050.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.180.1390.4886.910.150.10
PurdueB100.120.1380.0077.960.070.07
North TexasCUSA0.170.1333.3333.07-0.06-0.04
TroySB0.160.1323.8126.72-0.08-0.06
NebraskaB100.110.1352.0050.780.000.00
Texas TechB120.160.1260.8755.300.030.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.190.1239.1341.03-0.04-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.100.1245.4549.69-0.01-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1217.3920.66-0.06-0.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1213.6415.80-0.07-0.08
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1247.8350.01-0.000.00
WoffordSC0.140.1243.4846.22-0.02-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.130.1042.8646.35-0.02-0.01
MassachusettsA100.130.1040.9139.26-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1045.4554.16-0.010.01
UABCUSA0.120.1082.6179.390.080.06
Arkansas St.SB0.120.1042.8639.23-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.120.1064.0062.090.030.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.1025.0025.09-0.03-0.05
HawaiiBW0.170.1084.2181.660.120.06
SMUAmer0.110.1086.9682.900.080.06
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.0968.1871.310.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.170.0950.0053.000.000.01
LSUSEC0.120.0962.5059.050.030.02
CharlotteCUSA0.100.0934.7840.89-0.03-0.02
FIUCUSA0.110.0940.9145.29-0.02-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.150.0927.2731.06-0.07-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.150.0965.2266.190.050.03
SyracuseACC0.150.0966.6762.560.050.02
Iowa St.B120.100.0970.8368.000.040.03
Kansas St.B120.100.0958.3356.290.020.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0742.1145.67-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0725.0023.45-0.04-0.04
UCLAP120.130.0756.5253.270.020.00
Ball St.MAC0.070.0760.8757.160.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0750.0045.820.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.070.0712.0011.96-0.05-0.05
DuquesneA100.070.0760.8756.360.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0756.0055.420.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0731.8232.69-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.120.0763.6461.640.030.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.0714.2915.45-0.09-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0731.8236.14-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0733.3330.60-0.02-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0731.8230.15-0.02-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0754.5552.540.000.00
DrakeMVC0.000.0720.8323.19-0.00-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.130.0740.0038.97-0.03-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.130.0757.8956.090.020.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0754.1750.990.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0745.4551.39-0.010.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0757.1453.980.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0765.2268.590.020.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0768.0067.990.000.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0740.0038.51-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.060.0740.0042.12-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0733.3334.19-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0773.9174.700.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0773.0872.640.030.03
UC DavisBW0.060.0740.0036.70-0.01-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0742.8650.41-0.010.00
AuburnSEC0.070.0739.1335.44-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5058.920.020.01
LibertyBSth0.110.0734.7836.51-0.03-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.069.0917.14-0.09-0.04
BelmontOVC0.100.0668.0066.660.030.02
ChattanoogaSC0.100.0686.9686.650.070.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0663.6460.930.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0621.7423.32-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0613.6418.18-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0659.0959.370.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0652.0050.230.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0622.7327.18-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.110.0669.5764.900.040.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.0645.4547.54-0.01-0.00
HofstraCAA0.100.0665.2264.230.030.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.0624.0024.17-0.05-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.100.0670.8369.490.040.02
LipscombASun0.100.0625.0029.28-0.05-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0671.4368.750.020.02
MercerSC0.050.0669.5769.040.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.100.0650.0052.380.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.0640.0045.48-0.02-0.01
North FloridaASun0.100.0665.2267.120.030.02
NortheasternCAA0.100.0645.8346.63-0.01-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.0628.5727.00-0.04-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0631.5832.01-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.0668.1865.160.030.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.0665.2264.370.030.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0631.8230.05-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0665.2259.750.020.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0676.1973.410.030.03
VMISC0.100.0615.0016.73-0.07-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0628.5731.30-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0671.4369.840.020.02
RutgersB100.110.0621.7420.34-0.06-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.100.0673.9172.580.050.03
IllinoisB100.050.0645.8344.11-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.050.0682.6179.190.030.03
MarylandB100.050.0687.5083.690.040.04
Michigan St.B100.050.0680.0081.580.030.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0643.4843.76-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0645.8342.32-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.100.0662.5060.110.020.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0679.1778.060.030.03
MissouriSEC0.050.0633.3330.27-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.070.0479.1778.330.040.02
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0447.6249.35-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.039.0912.25-0.05-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0345.0046.11-0.01-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.060.0352.0048.860.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0385.7185.380.040.02
UMBCAE0.060.0324.0026.33-0.03-0.02
UNLVMWC0.060.0352.1755.090.000.00
USCP120.060.0378.2673.050.030.02
Washington St.P120.060.0336.3631.98-0.02-0.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0336.3638.93-0.02-0.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0372.7367.630.030.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0366.6764.730.020.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0328.5733.35-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0324.0025.67-0.03-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0344.0045.35-0.01-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0372.0071.540.020.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0358.3358.370.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0369.5765.310.020.01
CreightonBE0.050.0364.0062.040.020.01
DaytonA100.050.0386.9682.150.040.02
DukeACC0.050.0375.0071.800.030.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0354.1751.980.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0359.0961.310.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0370.8367.980.020.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0350.0054.190.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0321.7423.40-0.03-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0345.8343.68-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.190.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0358.3359.360.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.430.020.01
NavyPat0.050.0364.0064.480.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0358.3360.690.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0356.5262.820.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0325.0026.87-0.02-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0369.5770.070.020.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0361.9065.310.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0315.0015.32-0.04-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0333.3334.95-0.02-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0345.4546.21-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0360.8755.970.010.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0366.6766.330.020.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0347.6252.03-0.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0356.0052.840.010.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0359.0955.220.010.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0378.2676.880.030.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0354.5556.010.000.00
IowaB100.000.0382.6180.520.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.0375.0072.630.000.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0364.0057.920.010.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0359.0959.650.010.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0325.0027.23-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0383.3378.400.030.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0347.3749.90-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0360.0055.540.010.00
Penn St.B100.050.0350.0046.760.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0364.0064.110.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0386.9680.370.040.02
StanfordP120.050.0350.0046.530.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.050.0363.6459.710.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0350.0048.130.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.050.0322.7323.25-0.03-0.02
VCUA100.050.0373.9174.060.020.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0327.7829.16-0.02-0.01