Texas A&M Corpus Chris

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	323.0
Current RPI:	323
Expected SOS:	220
Current SOS:	220
Current Record:	5-23
Expected Record:	5-23
Current Conf Record:	5-13
Expected Conf Record:	5-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-9
Current OOC Record:	0-10
Expected OOC Record:	0-10
Expected OOC RPI:	317
Expected OOC SOS:	90

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
5-23	323.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas A&M Corpus Chris.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-14	Denver (64.0)	WAC	A	68-51	L	0%
11-17	Utah St. (108.0)	WAC	A	77-68	L	0%
11-25	Houston (197.0)	CUSA	H	75-77	L	0%
11-28	Toledo (193.0)	MAC	A	80-68	L	0%
12-1	Iowa (79.0)	B10	A	88-59	L	0%
12-16	South Alabama (154.0)	SB	A	74-69	L	0%
12-18	Texas A&M (102.0)	SEC	A	66-54	L	0%
12-21	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	H	45-75	L	0%
12-29	Stephen F. Austin (65.0)	Slnd	H	56-67	L	0%
12-31	Oklahoma (39.0)	B12	A	72-42	L	0%
1-4	Sam Houston St. (224.0)	Slnd	A	61-57	L	0%
1-10	McNeese St. (246.0)	Slnd	A	75-71	L	0%
1-12	Lamar (335.0)	Slnd	A	56-62	W	100%
1-17	Oral Roberts (151.0)	Slnd	H	52-64	L	0%
1-19	Central Arkansas (286.0)	Slnd	H	67-76	L	0%
1-24	Nicholls St. (296.0)	Slnd	A	69-62	L	0%
1-26	Southeastern Louisiana (227.0)	Slnd	A	67-53	L	0%
2-2	Sam Houston St. (224.0)	Slnd	H	51-55	L	0%
2-7	Lamar (335.0)	Slnd	H	63-67	L	0%
2-9	McNeese St. (246.0)	Slnd	H	61-58	W	100%
2-14	Central Arkansas (286.0)	Slnd	A	68-75	W	100%
2-16	Oral Roberts (151.0)	Slnd	A	56-51	L	0%
2-19	Northwestern St. (78.0)	Slnd	H	71-82	L	0%
2-23	Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)	BW	H	57-63	L	0%
2-28	Southeastern Louisiana (227.0)	Slnd	H	78-64	W	100%
3-2	Nicholls St. (296.0)	Slnd	H	68-64	W	100%
3-7	Northwestern St. (78.0)	Slnd	A	66-51	L	0%
3-9	Stephen F. Austin (65.0)	Slnd	A	58-49	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas A&M Corpus Chris's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Texas A&M Corpus Chris's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Texas A&M Corpus Chris.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	26.40	26.40	17.97	17.97	-16.91	-16.91
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	4.75	4.75	41.38	41.38	-0.82	-0.82
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	4.73	4.73	84.00	84.00	3.22	3.22
Northwestern St.	Slnd	4.73	4.73	68.00	68.00	1.70	1.70
McNeese St.	Slnd	4.70	4.70	38.46	38.46	-1.09	-1.09
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	4.69	4.69	37.04	37.04	-1.21	-1.21
Nicholls St.	Slnd	4.68	4.68	28.57	28.57	-2.01	-2.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	4.65	4.65	51.72	51.72	0.16	0.16
Central Arkansas	Slnd	4.61	4.61	38.46	38.46	-1.06	-1.06
Lamar	Slnd	4.56	4.56	6.90	6.90	-3.93	-3.93
Oklahoma	B12	2.00	2.00	63.33	63.33	0.53	0.53
Texas A&M	SEC	1.98	1.98	53.12	53.12	0.12	0.12
Texas San Antonio	WAC	1.96	1.96	29.03	29.03	-0.82	-0.82
Utah St.	WAC	1.96	1.96	65.52	65.52	0.61	0.61
Denver	WAC	1.90	1.90	68.97	68.97	0.72	0.72
Toledo	MAC	1.85	1.85	51.85	51.85	0.07	0.07
Houston	CUSA	1.81	1.81	58.62	58.62	0.31	0.31
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	1.79	1.79	37.93	37.93	-0.43	-0.43
Iowa	B10	1.79	1.79	62.50	62.50	0.45	0.45
South Alabama	SB	1.79	1.79	55.56	55.56	0.20	0.20
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.42	0.42	80.65	80.65	0.26	0.26
Texas St.	WAC	0.32	0.32	33.33	33.33	-0.11	-0.11
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.27	0.27	69.70	69.70	0.11	0.11
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.26	0.26	59.38	59.38	0.05	0.05
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.21	0.21	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Arkansas	SEC	0.21	0.21	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
San Jose St.	WAC	0.20	0.20	28.57	28.57	-0.09	-0.09
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.19	0.19	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.19	0.19	60.00	60.00	0.04	0.04
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.18	0.18	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Tulsa	CUSA	0.18	0.18	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.18	0.18	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.18	0.18	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Idaho	WAC	0.17	0.17	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Seattle	WAC	0.17	0.17	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
Long Beach St.	BW	0.16	0.16	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.15	0.15	14.81	14.81	-0.11	-0.11
UC Davis	BW	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.12	0.12	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.12	0.12	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Texas Tech	B12	0.12	0.12	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
New Orleans	ind	0.12	0.12	18.18	18.18	-0.08	-0.08
Tulane	CUSA	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.12	0.12	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.12	0.12	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Pacific	BW	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.12	0.12	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
UC Irvine	BW	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.12	0.12	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.12	0.12	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Baylor	B12	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Texas	B12	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Missouri	SEC	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.11	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Purdue	B10	0.11	0.11	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.10	0.10	0.00	0.00	-0.10	-0.10
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Troy	SB	0.09	0.09	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.09	0.09	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.09	0.09	88.24	88.24	0.07	0.07
Texas Christian	B12	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	B12	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.05	-0.05
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	28.00	28.00	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.06	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Idaho St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	93.75	93.75	0.03	0.03
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01