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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Santa Clara

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:150.9
Current RPI:163
Expected SOS:98
Current SOS:156
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:12-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-2
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC RPI:183
Expected OOC SOS:221



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-528.00.01%
19-733.30.10%
18-844.50.63%
17-959.91.89%
16-1075.94.38%
15-1192.27.86%
14-12112.813.06%
13-13133.417.26%
12-14155.118.29%
11-15177.315.12%
10-16198.411.03%
9-17220.46.20%
8-18240.82.77%
7-19261.21.13%
6-20277.10.23%
5-21303.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Santa Clara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Cal St. Fullerton (257.8)BWH89-72W100%0.0
11-19Utah St. (106.1)MWCA60-54L0%0.0
11-24Michigan St. (30.2)B10A0-010%-15.7
11-27Tennessee (165.0)SECN0-049%-0.2
12-6San Jose St. (296.3)MWCA0-070%6.4
12-13Washington St. (220.6)P12H0-077%9.1
12-20Northeastern (71.6)CAAH0-052%0.7
12-23Cal Poly (200.5)BWH0-076%8.5
12-27Saint Mary's (44.4)WCCA0-019%-10.6
12-29Pacific (227.9)WCCA0-060%3.0
1-1BYU (33.4)WCCH0-036%-4.2
1-3San Diego (121.5)WCCH0-058%2.5
1-8Portland (157.1)WCCA0-041%-2.6
1-10Gonzaga (13.9)WCCA0-06%-18.8
1-17San Francisco (92.6)WCCH0-050%-0.0
1-22Loyola Marymount (222.2)WCCH0-079%9.8
1-24Pepperdine (150.0)WCCH0-063%4.0
1-29San Diego (121.5)WCCA0-035%-4.7
1-31BYU (33.4)WCCA0-017%-11.4
2-5Gonzaga (13.9)WCCH0-017%-11.6
2-7Portland (157.1)WCCH0-065%4.6
2-12San Francisco (92.6)WCCA0-027%-7.2
2-19Pepperdine (150.0)WCCA0-039%-3.2
2-21Loyola Marymount (222.2)WCCA0-059%2.6
2-26Pacific (227.9)WCCH0-080%10.2
2-28Saint Mary's (44.4)WCCH0-039%-3.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Santa Clara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Santa Clara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Santa Clara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Santa ClaraWCC35.4226.5450.0045.930.00-2.16
GonzagaWCC0.005.05100.0086.820.003.72
PepperdineWCC0.005.04100.0051.160.000.12
Saint Mary'sWCC0.005.04100.0070.560.002.07
PortlandWCC0.005.01100.0050.670.000.07
BYUWCC0.005.01100.0069.000.001.90
San FranciscoWCC0.005.00100.0061.850.001.19
Loyola MarymountWCC0.004.9733.3327.79-0.00-2.21
San DiegoWCC0.004.9766.6747.860.00-0.21
PacificWCC0.004.9650.0029.930.00-1.99
Cal PolyBW0.002.2350.0038.820.00-0.50
San Jose St.MWC0.002.190.0020.33-0.00-1.30
Cal St. FullertonBW25.002.100.0039.95-25.00-0.42
Utah St.MWC25.002.07100.0063.0525.000.54
NortheasternCAA0.002.03100.0070.470.000.83
Washington St.P120.002.0333.3327.22-0.00-0.92
Michigan St.B100.001.9266.6770.620.000.79
TennesseeSEC0.001.9250.0043.750.00-0.24
UC IrvineBW0.000.3650.0062.910.000.09
Boise St.MWC0.000.35100.0065.850.000.11
Fresno St.MWC0.000.320.0032.99-0.00-0.11
NevadaMWC0.000.2950.0052.120.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.2875.0054.690.000.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.250.0054.32-0.000.02
UC DavisBW0.000.24100.0043.140.00-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.000.210.0027.23-0.00-0.10
San Diego St.MWC0.000.21100.0082.150.000.14
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.2133.3344.98-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.2133.3352.91-0.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.2166.6746.160.00-0.02
StanfordP120.000.21100.0068.290.000.08
UCLAP120.000.21100.0061.850.000.05
WashingtonP120.000.18100.0056.460.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.18100.0055.380.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.17100.0058.420.000.03
USCP120.000.1750.0026.710.00-0.08
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.1750.0046.900.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.140.0028.50-0.00-0.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.140.0041.63-0.00-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.1450.0045.330.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.14100.0056.150.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.14100.0068.420.000.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1433.3354.24-0.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.14100.0051.300.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.14100.0050.080.000.00
UtahP120.000.1466.6770.360.000.06
New MexicoMWC6.250.1475.0062.013.120.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.130.0038.27-0.00-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.11100.0062.840.000.03
CaliforniaP120.000.1175.0073.240.000.05
IowaB100.000.1050.0067.840.000.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.10100.0036.560.00-0.03
Weber St.BSky4.170.100.0055.60-4.170.01
DelawareCAA0.000.100.0033.61-0.00-0.03
MassachusettsA100.000.10100.0063.880.000.03
RichmondA100.000.1050.0062.660.000.03
ArizonaP120.000.10100.0068.970.000.04
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1066.6757.590.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.080.0034.57-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0750.0054.170.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.07100.0061.420.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0016.72-0.00-0.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.070.0025.67-0.00-0.03
MontanaBSky0.000.070.0049.81-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.070.0034.37-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.070.0031.91-0.00-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.07100.0084.100.000.05
XavierBE0.000.07100.0076.430.000.04
SeattleWAC0.000.0733.3347.72-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.07100.0074.210.000.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.070.0051.04-0.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0055.810.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0750.0062.440.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.070.0028.82-0.00-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.07100.0063.380.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.070.0034.15-0.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.000.0733.3330.78-0.00-0.03
LSUSEC0.000.0766.6756.820.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.070.0024.76-0.00-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.070.0037.45-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0750.0072.260.000.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0733.3365.68-0.000.02
OregonP120.000.07100.0070.690.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.070.0035.17-0.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0038.65-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0750.0055.220.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.07100.0052.280.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0766.6752.470.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.07100.0048.390.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.07100.0065.630.000.02
IndianaB100.000.07100.0063.850.000.02
MarylandB100.000.07100.0063.680.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.070.0065.36-0.000.02
MichiganB100.000.07100.0066.870.000.02
NorthwesternB100.000.07100.0043.710.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0733.3333.43-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0733.3367.72-0.000.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.070.0041.45-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.070.0032.22-0.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0625.0057.21-0.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.060.0034.27-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0650.0040.300.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0666.6763.800.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0666.6747.240.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0666.6745.850.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0650.0040.180.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0650.0045.610.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0450.0065.390.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0055.900.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6742.560.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0054.180.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.030.0048.48-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6766.600.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0047.220.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0366.6755.230.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0086.080.000.02
MercerSC0.000.0350.0052.770.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6760.220.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6750.370.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0059.140.000.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0054.240.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0027.72-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.030.0037.20-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6764.990.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0069.630.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.030.0028.13-0.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.03100.0074.770.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0325.0033.23-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0033.60-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0086.380.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0050.900.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.03100.0043.610.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC4.170.0350.0054.580.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.030.0038.29-0.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0350.0063.730.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.03100.0051.030.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0069.430.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.030.0033.70-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0073.590.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0375.0045.210.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.03100.0060.570.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0366.6751.360.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0350.0036.270.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3349.18-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.030.0053.38-0.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0027.74-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.03100.0050.220.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0350.0044.430.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0081.110.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0350.0052.540.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0333.3357.87-0.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0055.45-0.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0333.3334.47-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0350.0056.300.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0350.0066.890.000.01