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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Santa Clara

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:202.0
Current RPI:202
Expected SOS:116
Current SOS:116
Current Record:12-18
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:236
Expected OOC SOS:198



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-18202.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Santa Clara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Cal St. Fullerton (314.0)BWH89-72W100%0.0
11-19Utah St. (143.0)MWCA60-54L0%0.0
11-24Michigan St. (23.0)B10A79-52L0%0.0
11-27Tennessee (96.0)SECN64-57L0%0.0
11-28Rhode Island (66.0)A10N66-44L0%0.0
11-30Rider (140.0)MAACN60-68W100%0.0
12-6San Jose St. (336.0)MWCA50-61W100%0.0
12-13Washington St. (169.0)P12H76-67W100%0.0
12-20Northeastern (86.0)CAAH72-78L0%0.0
12-23Cal Poly (199.0)BWH58-69L0%0.0
12-27Saint Mary's (68.0)WCCA73-60L0%0.0
12-29Pacific (241.0)WCCA40-57W100%0.0
1-1BYU (36.0)WCCH46-81L0%0.0
1-3San Diego (157.0)WCCH59-56W100%0.0
1-8Portland (149.0)WCCA78-61L0%0.0
1-10Gonzaga (8.0)WCCA79-57L0%0.0
1-17San Francisco (181.0)WCCH70-64W100%0.0
1-22Loyola Marymount (268.0)WCCH65-62W100%0.0
1-24Pepperdine (134.0)WCCH60-57W100%0.0
1-29San Diego (157.0)WCCA69-64L0%0.0
1-31BYU (36.0)WCCA78-57L0%0.0
2-5Gonzaga (8.0)WCCH63-77L0%0.0
2-7Portland (149.0)WCCH54-74L0%0.0
2-12San Francisco (181.0)WCCA69-62L0%0.0
2-19Pepperdine (134.0)WCCA64-55L0%0.0
2-21Loyola Marymount (268.0)WCCA63-70W100%0.0
2-26Pacific (241.0)WCCH57-64L0%0.0
2-28Saint Mary's (68.0)WCCH71-70W100%0.0
3-6Loyola Marymount (268.0)WCCN85-54W100%0.0
3-7BYU (36.0)WCCN78-76L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Santa Clara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Santa Clara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Santa Clara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Santa ClaraWCC26.5326.5338.2438.24-6.24-6.24
BYUWCC6.086.0868.9768.972.302.30
Loyola MarymountWCC5.935.9325.9325.93-2.86-2.86
GonzagaWCC4.584.5893.5593.553.993.99
PortlandWCC4.494.4946.4346.43-0.32-0.32
PepperdineWCC4.494.4957.1457.140.640.64
San FranciscoWCC4.474.4741.3841.38-0.77-0.77
Saint Mary'sWCC4.434.4370.3770.371.801.80
San DiegoWCC4.384.3846.4346.43-0.31-0.31
PacificWCC4.374.3730.7730.77-1.68-1.68
Cal PolyBW1.911.9138.4638.46-0.44-0.44
San Jose St.MWC1.891.890.000.00-1.89-1.89
Cal St. FullertonBW1.811.8125.0025.00-0.91-0.91
Utah St.MWC1.801.8055.1755.170.190.19
NortheasternCAA1.761.7666.6766.670.590.59
Washington St.P121.751.7543.3343.33-0.23-0.23
Michigan St.B101.691.6966.6766.670.560.56
RiderMAAC1.691.6967.7467.740.600.60
Rhode IslandA101.671.6768.9768.970.630.63
TennesseeSEC1.671.6748.3948.39-0.05-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.320.3261.2961.290.070.07
Boise St.MWC0.310.3174.1974.190.150.15
Fresno St.MWC0.260.2643.3343.33-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.250.2560.6160.610.050.05
NevadaMWC0.230.2324.1424.14-0.12-0.12
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.230.2356.6756.670.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.220.2258.0658.060.040.04
StanfordP120.220.2259.3859.380.040.04
UC DavisBW0.200.2079.3179.310.120.12
UC RiversideBW0.200.2041.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.200.2045.1645.16-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.190.1975.7675.760.100.10
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.170.1722.5822.58-0.10-0.10
UNLVMWC0.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
USCP120.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
UCLAP120.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
MassachusettsA100.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.150.1581.2581.250.090.09
WashingtonP120.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
WyomingMWC0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
UtahP120.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
Air ForceMWC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
New MexicoMWC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Oregon St.P120.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.110.1148.1548.15-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
RichmondA100.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
ColoradoP120.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.100.1076.4776.470.060.06
PurdueB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1064.7164.710.030.03
MercerSC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.05-0.05
DePaulBE0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
IowaB100.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0847.0647.06-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
ArizonaP120.080.0891.1891.180.060.06
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
MarylandB100.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
DaytonA100.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
DrakeMVC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
FordhamA100.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
XavierBE0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0274.0774.070.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
OaklandHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.020.0252.9452.940.000.00
RutgersB100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.020.0229.6329.63-0.01-0.01