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Through games of Feb 24, 2017.


Santa Clara

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:139.6
Current RPI:146
Expected SOS:96
Current SOS:112
Current Record:15-14
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:10-7
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:241
Expected OOC SOS:185



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14125.45.58%
15-15140.494.42%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Santa Clara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Northern Arizona (334.6)BSkyH67-64W100%0.0
11-12UC Davis (198.5)BWH58-63L0%0.0
11-13Tennessee St. (145.8)OVCH61-69L0%0.0
11-19Northern Colorado (296.9)BSkyH88-72W100%0.0
11-21Sacred Heart (295.4)NECH84-74W100%0.0
11-24Arizona (6.1)P12N61-69L0%0.0
11-25Vanderbilt (48.1)SECN66-76L0%0.0
11-30UC Irvine (151.5)BWH55-58L0%0.0
12-3San Jose St. (163.0)MWCA55-40L0%0.0
12-13UC Riverside (324.4)BWH77-53W100%0.0
12-17Washington St. (157.6)P12A69-68L0%0.0
12-22Valparaiso (58.9)HorzA80-87W100%0.0
12-29BYU (78.3)WCCA89-59L0%0.0
12-31San Francisco (91.5)WCCH72-58W100%0.0
1-5Portland (234.3)WCCH70-42W100%0.0
1-7Loyola Marymount (151.4)WCCA66-56L0%0.0
1-12San Diego (197.7)WCCA57-59W100%0.0
1-14Pepperdine (229.7)WCCA61-75W100%0.0
1-19Gonzaga (5.0)WCCH57-88L0%0.0
1-21Loyola Marymount (151.4)WCCH64-63W100%0.0
1-26BYU (78.3)WCCH76-68W100%0.0
1-28Saint Mary's (16.1)WCCH59-72L0%0.0
2-2Portland (234.3)WCCA45-60W100%0.0
2-4Gonzaga (5.0)WCCA90-55L0%0.0
2-9San Francisco (91.5)WCCA61-58L0%0.0
2-11Pacific (229.7)WCCA47-64W100%0.0
2-16Pepperdine (229.7)WCCH106-55W100%0.0
2-18San Diego (197.7)WCCH58-60L0%0.0
2-23Pacific (229.7)WCCH69-68W100%0.0
2-25Saint Mary's (16.1)WCCA0-05%-17.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Santa Clara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Santa Clara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Santa Clara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Santa ClaraWCC26.3926.3748.1547.30-0.98-1.42
PortlandWCC4.374.3030.7731.12-1.68-1.62
Saint Mary'sWCC2.764.3088.8988.892.153.34
BYUWCC4.334.2767.8665.661.551.34
PacificWCC4.334.2733.3333.84-1.44-1.38
GonzagaWCC4.334.27100.0099.864.334.26
San DiegoWCC4.334.2738.4639.26-1.00-0.92
San FranciscoWCC4.304.2462.9663.561.111.15
PepperdineWCC4.304.2430.7730.39-1.65-1.66
Loyola MarymountWCC4.294.2348.0048.17-0.17-0.15
UC IrvineBW1.911.9350.0052.890.000.11
UC RiversideBW1.921.8726.0927.35-0.92-0.85
ArizonaP121.951.8789.2987.901.531.41
Northern ArizonaBSky1.921.8526.9226.53-0.89-0.87
UC DavisBW1.891.8456.0055.630.230.21
San Jose St.MWC1.851.8147.8344.80-0.08-0.19
Northern ColoradoBSky1.881.8130.4332.76-0.74-0.62
Washington St.P121.821.7540.0037.80-0.36-0.43
Tennessee St.OVC1.821.7556.0054.700.220.16
Sacred HeartNEC1.791.7244.8344.37-0.19-0.19
ValparaisoHorz1.781.7282.1481.391.151.08
VanderbiltSEC1.761.7051.8550.310.070.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.380.3550.0049.800.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.310.3543.4844.58-0.04-0.04
UCLAP120.280.3189.2988.410.220.24
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.300.2941.6741.96-0.05-0.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.320.2916.0016.72-0.22-0.19
Sacramento St.BSky0.280.2933.3334.10-0.09-0.09
USCP120.270.2875.0075.270.140.14
NevadaMWC0.220.2678.5778.290.130.15
Southern UtahBSky0.270.2411.5412.95-0.20-0.17
Cal PolyBW0.230.2328.0030.82-0.10-0.09
Long Beach St.BW0.230.2339.2940.09-0.05-0.05
San Diego St.MWC0.250.2357.6958.130.040.04
Weber St.BSky0.260.2358.3359.070.040.04
MontanaBSky0.230.2150.0050.370.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.220.2037.5040.08-0.05-0.04
ColoradoP120.220.2053.5753.850.020.02
WashingtonP120.180.1933.3332.54-0.06-0.07
HawaiiBW0.170.1848.0047.52-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.170.1750.0051.340.000.00
UtahP120.190.1761.5461.980.040.04
Colorado St.MWC0.170.1565.3864.130.050.04
BelmontOVC0.130.1580.0079.920.080.09
Idaho St.BSky0.160.1415.3816.30-0.11-0.10
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.130.1465.3867.150.040.05
DaytonA100.120.1481.4880.730.080.09
StanfordP120.120.1450.0047.360.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.160.1467.8666.460.060.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.150.1442.8642.33-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.140.1235.7134.77-0.04-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.100.1264.0064.920.030.04
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1257.6957.760.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.100.1263.6465.040.030.04
WyomingMWC0.100.1253.8553.520.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.1276.0076.570.050.06
Oregon St.P120.120.1113.7913.43-0.09-0.08
South DakotaSum0.120.1164.2963.760.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.130.1142.3144.00-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.100.1144.8343.70-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.120.1155.5656.580.010.01
BryantNEC0.120.1134.4836.16-0.04-0.03
FloridaSEC0.090.1182.1480.620.060.07
TennesseeSEC0.120.1151.8552.290.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.1170.8371.960.050.05
DenverSum0.110.0957.1456.680.020.01
Air ForceMWC0.100.0934.6233.54-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.0950.0049.420.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.100.0946.1546.04-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Little RockSB0.090.0944.0043.40-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0980.0080.880.060.05
ButlerBE0.100.0878.5777.630.060.05
OaklandHorz0.090.0875.0075.170.050.04
OregonP120.090.0885.7185.950.070.06
AkronMAC0.090.0878.5777.240.050.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0824.1424.00-0.05-0.04
Iowa St.B120.090.0866.6764.760.030.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0825.9326.04-0.04-0.04
KentuckySEC0.060.0882.1481.770.040.05
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0851.8551.680.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0632.1433.01-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0646.1546.92-0.01-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0635.7135.96-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0650.0049.260.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0630.4330.06-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0644.0045.05-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0666.6765.620.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0628.0028.90-0.03-0.02
BucknellPat0.070.0673.3373.730.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0685.1985.440.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.070.0657.1456.420.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0620.0022.20-0.04-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0651.8549.980.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0656.0055.930.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0637.5036.16-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.060.0624.0025.26-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0630.7734.72-0.01-0.02
SamfordSC0.060.0655.5656.300.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0628.0029.87-0.01-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.060.0662.9663.430.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0660.8762.120.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0651.8553.240.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0626.9226.40-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0646.4346.32-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0636.3636.57-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0652.1749.970.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0625.0026.70-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.060.0625.0024.68-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0682.1481.640.040.04
LamarSlnd0.060.0650.0052.020.000.00
MassachusettsA100.060.0646.4346.16-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0614.2918.11-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.060.003.37-0.06-0.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0664.2963.440.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0634.4834.86-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.060.0653.3353.360.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0642.8643.32-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.060.0653.8552.820.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.060.0642.3143.40-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.7161.120.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0632.1431.92-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0559.2657.880.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.060.0575.0071.890.030.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0521.4321.22-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0546.1547.50-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0537.0437.13-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.060.0555.5655.030.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0562.0761.150.010.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0525.9325.76-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0550.0051.400.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0546.1546.91-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.060.0573.9175.160.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0540.0040.93-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0532.1431.01-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0510.3410.22-0.05-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0544.4445.01-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.060.0553.8554.280.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0329.6329.38-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0340.7440.21-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0356.6756.420.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0378.5776.180.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0346.1546.97-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0344.4444.54-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0351.7249.530.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.040.0333.3333.58-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0314.8115.42-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0342.8644.04-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0360.7160.450.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0377.7875.390.020.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0322.2223.45-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.7159.900.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0357.1457.070.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0360.8761.760.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0365.3864.790.010.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0341.6739.81-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.9661.290.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0311.5411.61-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0377.7878.000.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0335.7135.66-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0351.7250.330.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0366.6766.800.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0360.7159.640.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0332.1430.39-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0365.3866.650.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0353.5753.560.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0344.4443.95-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0355.5656.820.000.00
HartfordAE0.030.0330.0029.21-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0346.1546.22-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0344.8345.02-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0350.0050.070.000.00
LafayettePat0.030.0325.9325.63-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0333.3331.77-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0362.9661.410.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0360.7158.900.010.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0375.0073.550.020.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.7159.880.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0351.8550.690.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0370.3770.550.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0359.2662.740.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.030.0356.5258.980.000.00