Santa Clara

Conference:	WCC
Expected RPI:	303.0
Current RPI:	303
Expected SOS:	178
Current SOS:	178
Current Record:	6-22
Expected Record:	6-22
Current Conf Record:	0-17
Expected Conf Record:	0-17
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-6
Current OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC RPI:	198
Expected OOC SOS:	249

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
6-22	303.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Santa Clara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-15	UC Santa Barbara (119.0)	BW	A	89-56	L	0%
11-19	San Jose St. (279.0)	WAC	H	84-58	W	100%
11-24	New Mexico (27.0)	MWC	N	79-76	W	100%
11-25	Oklahoma (137.0)	B12	N	73-85	L	0%
11-27	Villanova (121.0)	BE	N	64-65	W	100%
12-3	Cal St. Northridge (323.0)	BW	H	71-58	W	100%
12-11	Washington St. (175.0)	P12	A	93-55	L	0%
12-17	Pacific (288.0)	BW	H	78-76	W	100%
12-21	Houston Baptist (324.0)	GWC	A	72-71	L	0%
12-29	Eastern Michigan (243.0)	MAC	H	75-55	W	100%
12-30	Wagner (93.0)	NEC	H	62-64	L	0%
1-5	Portland (238.0)	WCC	A	84-74	L	0%
1-7	Gonzaga (25.0)	WCC	A	82-60	L	0%
1-12	San Diego (192.0)	WCC	H	62-75	L	0%
1-14	Brigham Young (46.0)	WCC	A	95-78	L	0%
1-21	St. Mary's (28.0)	WCC	H	77-93	L	0%
1-23	Loyola Marymount (118.0)	WCC	H	62-74	L	0%
1-26	San Francisco (136.0)	WCC	H	77-90	L	0%
1-28	Pepperdine (271.0)	WCC	A	74-62	L	0%
2-2	Portland (238.0)	WCC	H	78-84	L	0%
2-4	San Diego (192.0)	WCC	A	70-65	L	0%
2-9	San Francisco (136.0)	WCC	A	85-69	L	0%
2-11	St. Mary's (28.0)	WCC	A	82-67	L	0%
2-16	Gonzaga (25.0)	WCC	H	62-73	L	0%
2-18	Brigham Young (46.0)	WCC	H	67-82	L	0%
2-23	Pepperdine (271.0)	WCC	H	57-63	L	0%
2-25	Loyola Marymount (118.0)	WCC	A	68-65	L	0%
2-29	Portland (238.0)	WCC	N	74-70	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Santa Clara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Santa Clara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Santa Clara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Santa Clara	WCC	26.44	26.44	17.19	17.19	-17.35	-17.35
Portland	WCC	6.31	6.31	11.11	11.11	-4.91	-4.91
San Francisco	WCC	4.75	4.75	55.17	55.17	0.49	0.49
Brigham Young	WCC	4.62	4.62	72.41	72.41	2.07	2.07
Gonzaga	WCC	4.62	4.62	79.31	79.31	2.71	2.71
San Diego	WCC	4.62	4.62	33.33	33.33	-1.54	-1.54
Pepperdine	WCC	4.59	4.59	26.92	26.92	-2.12	-2.12
St. Mary's	WCC	4.58	4.58	82.14	82.14	2.95	2.95
Loyola Marymount	WCC	4.52	4.52	55.56	55.56	0.50	0.50
UC Santa Barbara	BW	2.16	2.16	62.96	62.96	0.56	0.56
Washington St.	P12	2.05	2.05	44.83	44.83	-0.21	-0.21
Pacific	BW	2.01	2.01	33.33	33.33	-0.67	-0.67
Cal St. Northridge	BW	1.98	1.98	20.00	20.00	-1.19	-1.19
New Mexico	MWC	1.85	1.85	83.87	83.87	1.25	1.25
San Jose St.	WAC	1.84	1.84	27.59	27.59	-0.83	-0.83
Oklahoma	B12	1.82	1.82	46.67	46.67	-0.12	-0.12
Houston Baptist	GWC	1.81	1.81	23.08	23.08	-0.98	-0.98
Eastern Michigan	MAC	1.79	1.79	43.33	43.33	-0.24	-0.24
Villanova	BE	1.79	1.79	41.94	41.94	-0.29	-0.29
Wagner	NEC	1.79	1.79	80.00	80.00	1.07	1.07
Cal Poly	BW	0.35	0.35	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.29	0.29	48.15	48.15	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.29	0.29	34.48	34.48	-0.09	-0.09
UC Riverside	BW	0.28	0.28	41.38	41.38	-0.05	-0.05
Hawaii	WAC	0.28	0.28	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada	WAC	0.27	0.27	80.00	80.00	0.16	0.16
Washington	P12	0.25	0.25	67.74	67.74	0.09	0.09
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.24	0.24	11.11	11.11	-0.19	-0.19
St. Louis	A10	0.24	0.24	77.42	77.42	0.13	0.13
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.23	0.23	67.86	67.86	0.08	0.08
Long Beach St.	BW	0.23	0.23	74.19	74.19	0.11	0.11
UC Davis	BW	0.23	0.23	13.33	13.33	-0.17	-0.17
Idaho St.	BSky	0.21	0.21	27.59	27.59	-0.09	-0.09
Montana	BSky	0.21	0.21	79.31	79.31	0.12	0.12
Air Force	MWC	0.20	0.20	40.74	40.74	-0.04	-0.04
UCLA	P12	0.18	0.18	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.18	0.18	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.18	0.18	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.18	0.18	77.42	77.42	0.10	0.10
Utah	P12	0.18	0.18	16.67	16.67	-0.12	-0.12
Baylor	B12	0.17	0.17	78.79	78.79	0.10	0.10
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.17	0.17	72.73	72.73	0.08	0.08
Arizona St.	P12	0.15	0.15	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Seattle	ind	0.15	0.15	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.15	0.15	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.15	0.15	78.57	78.57	0.08	0.08
Fresno St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.13	0.13	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Southern California	P12	0.12	0.12	18.75	18.75	-0.08	-0.08
Montana St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	37.04	37.04	-0.03	-0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Ohio	MAC	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Arizona	P12	0.12	0.12	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Murray St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	96.43	96.43	0.11	0.11
Oregon	P12	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.12	0.12	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Longwood	ind	0.12	0.12	22.22	22.22	-0.06	-0.06
Western Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.12	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota	GWC	0.09	0.09	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.09	0.09	94.12	94.12	0.08	0.08
Oregon St.	P12	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.09	0.09	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	30.77	30.77	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.09	0.09	64.29	64.29	0.02	0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.09	0.09	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.09	0.09	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.09	0.09	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Texas A&M	B12	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	B12	0.09	0.09	88.24	88.24	0.07	0.07
Monmouth	NEC	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
South Florida	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.07	0.07	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.07	0.07	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.06	0.06	86.21	86.21	0.04	0.04
Maine	AE	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
North Texas	SB	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Denver	SB	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.06	0.06	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Butler	Horz	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.06	10.34	10.34	-0.05	-0.05
Holy Cross	Pat	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas	B12	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.06	0.06	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01