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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Santa Clara

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:251.0
Current RPI:251
Expected SOS:158
Current SOS:158
Current Record:10-20
Expected Record:10-20
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-6
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:312
Expected OOC SOS:256



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-20251.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Santa Clara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Lipscomb (269.0)ASunH63-65L0%0.0
11-14Denver (188.0)SumH33-55L0%0.0
11-15Milwaukee (173.0)HorzH65-71L0%0.0
11-19UC Riverside (267.0)BWA77-63L0%0.0
11-23UC Irvine (75.0)BWA79-61L0%0.0
11-26Arizona (26.0)P12N75-73L0%0.0
11-27Evansville (93.0)MVCN57-69L0%0.0
11-29Boston College (250.0)ACCN62-45W100%0.0
12-5San Jose St. (301.0)MWCH78-75W100%0.0
12-15Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.0)SWACH69-57W100%0.0
12-18Nevada (118.0)MWCA72-69L0%0.0
12-21Pacific (268.0)WCCA73-72L0%0.0
12-23Saint Mary's (38.0)WCCH59-81L0%0.0
12-31Gonzaga (46.0)WCCH77-79L0%0.0
1-2Portland (249.0)WCCH84-77W100%0.0
1-7BYU (76.0)WCCA97-61L0%0.0
1-9San Diego (302.0)WCCA53-65W100%0.0
1-14Pepperdine (129.0)WCCH62-60W100%0.0
1-16Loyola Marymount (223.0)WCCH66-76L0%0.0
1-21San Francisco (228.0)WCCH61-74L0%0.0
1-28Gonzaga (46.0)WCCA84-67L0%0.0
1-30Portland (249.0)WCCA84-90W100%0.0
2-6San Francisco (228.0)WCCA89-86L0%0.0
2-11San Diego (302.0)WCCH74-71W100%0.0
2-13BYU (76.0)WCCH62-96L0%0.0
2-18Loyola Marymount (223.0)WCCA72-76W100%0.0
2-20Pepperdine (129.0)WCCA88-76L0%0.0
2-25Saint Mary's (38.0)WCCA75-50L0%0.0
2-27Pacific (268.0)WCCH69-65W100%0.0
3-5BYU (76.0)WCCN72-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Santa Clara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Santa Clara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Santa Clara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Santa ClaraWCC26.4326.4330.9930.99-10.05-10.05
BYUWCC5.955.9565.5265.521.851.85
GonzagaWCC4.504.5076.6776.672.402.40
Saint Mary'sWCC4.474.4782.7682.762.932.93
Loyola MarymountWCC4.444.4442.8642.86-0.63-0.63
PepperdineWCC4.394.3957.1457.140.630.63
San DiegoWCC4.394.3929.6329.63-1.79-1.79
San FranciscoWCC4.364.3644.4444.44-0.48-0.48
PacificWCC4.344.3420.8320.83-2.53-2.53
PortlandWCC4.334.3337.9337.93-1.05-1.05
UC IrvineBW1.951.9570.9770.970.820.82
UC RiversideBW1.861.8636.6736.67-0.50-0.50
DenverSum1.801.8050.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP121.781.7875.0075.000.890.89
NevadaMWC1.761.7655.1755.170.180.18
San Jose St.MWC1.751.7522.2222.22-0.97-0.97
LipscombASun1.721.7230.0030.00-0.69-0.69
MilwaukeeHorz1.721.7256.6756.670.230.23
Boston CollegeACC1.691.6922.5822.58-0.93-0.93
EvansvilleMVC1.691.6971.8871.880.740.74
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.671.6725.0025.00-0.83-0.83
Cal St. FullertonBW0.420.4228.5728.57-0.18-0.18
Fresno St.MWC0.340.3471.8871.880.150.15
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.330.3328.5728.57-0.14-0.14
Long Beach St.BW0.320.3256.2556.250.040.04
Boise St.MWC0.300.3060.0060.000.060.06
UC DavisBW0.270.2732.1432.14-0.10-0.10
Colorado St.MWC0.250.2550.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.220.2253.1253.120.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.220.2248.2848.28-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.190.1962.0762.070.050.05
Cal PolyBW0.190.1928.5728.57-0.08-0.08
ColoradoP120.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
San Diego St.MWC0.170.1771.8871.880.080.08
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
HawaiiBW0.160.1683.3383.330.110.11
Utah ValleyWAC0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Weber St.BSky0.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
UCLAP120.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.160.1663.3363.330.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.150.1522.8622.86-0.08-0.08
Northern IowaMVC0.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Green BayHorz0.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
DrakeMVC0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
Sacramento St.BSky0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.1110.7110.71-0.09-0.09
Oregon St.P120.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
USCP120.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Murray St.OVC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
StanfordP120.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
WashingtonP120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Washington St.P120.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.06-0.06
RiceCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0811.1111.11-0.06-0.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0872.4172.410.040.04
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
South DakotaSum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
StetsonASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
ProvidenceBE0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
OregonP120.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
SeattleWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
IPFWSum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
IUPUISum0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0529.1729.17-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
KansasB120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ArmyPat0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01