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Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Santa Clara

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:262.5
Current RPI:265
Expected SOS:152
Current SOS:146
Current Record:7-16
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:4-8
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-8
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:304
Expected OOC SOS:231



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16200.00.01%
12-17214.20.60%
11-18230.46.47%
10-19248.225.08%
9-20264.639.28%
8-21278.423.73%
7-22290.24.82%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Santa Clara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Lipscomb (271.7)ASunH63-65L0%0.0
11-14Denver (200.7)SumH33-55L0%0.0
11-15Milwaukee (166.2)HorzH65-71L0%0.0
11-19UC Riverside (264.0)BWA77-63L0%0.0
11-23UC Irvine (69.0)BWA79-61L0%0.0
11-26Arizona (26.8)P12N75-73L0%0.0
11-27Evansville (75.1)MVCN57-69L0%0.0
11-29Boston College (234.4)ACCN62-45W100%0.0
12-5San Jose St. (293.9)MWCH78-75W100%0.0
12-15Arkansas Pine Bluff (314.7)SWACH69-57W100%0.0
12-18Nevada (130.4)MWCA72-69L0%0.0
12-21Pacific (241.8)WCCA73-72L0%0.0
12-23Saint Mary's (39.1)WCCH59-81L0%0.0
12-31Gonzaga (50.2)WCCH77-79L0%0.0
1-2Portland (240.6)WCCH84-77W100%0.0
1-7BYU (72.5)WCCA97-61L0%0.0
1-9San Diego (289.6)WCCA53-65W100%0.0
1-14Pepperdine (126.7)WCCH62-60W100%0.0
1-16Loyola Marymount (243.5)WCCH66-76L0%0.0
1-21San Francisco (226.9)WCCH61-74L0%0.0
1-28Gonzaga (50.2)WCCA84-67L0%0.0
1-30Portland (240.6)WCCA84-90W100%0.0
2-6San Francisco (226.9)WCCA89-86L0%0.0
2-11San Diego (289.6)WCCH0-072%6.3
2-13BYU (72.5)WCCH0-017%-10.3
2-18Loyola Marymount (243.5)WCCA0-041%-2.5
2-20Pepperdine (126.7)WCCA0-016%-10.9
2-25Saint Mary's (39.1)WCCA0-02%-22.1
2-27Pacific (241.8)WCCH0-057%2.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Santa Clara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Santa Clara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Santa Clara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Santa ClaraWCC26.3726.4227.9328.73-11.64-11.24
PacificWCC2.994.5021.0525.36-1.73-2.22
San DiegoWCC2.954.4933.3330.28-0.98-1.77
Loyola MarymountWCC3.074.4836.3635.40-0.84-1.31
GonzagaWCC5.074.4676.1975.162.652.24
San FranciscoWCC5.054.4650.0046.270.00-0.33
Saint Mary'sWCC2.904.4585.0084.302.033.05
BYUWCC2.864.4465.2267.920.871.59
PortlandWCC5.034.4443.4841.26-0.66-0.78
PepperdineWCC2.984.4359.0958.440.540.75
UC IrvineBW2.462.0371.4370.681.060.84
UC RiversideBW2.411.9343.4839.64-0.31-0.40
DenverSum2.361.8752.1750.060.100.00
ArizonaP122.321.8578.2677.611.311.02
NevadaMWC2.231.8255.0053.640.220.13
San Jose St.MWC2.221.8225.0023.70-1.11-0.96
LipscombASun2.271.7821.7426.76-1.28-0.83
MilwaukeeHorz2.261.7857.1458.210.320.29
Boston CollegeACC2.221.7530.4327.62-0.87-0.78
EvansvilleMVC2.221.7573.9175.371.060.89
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.171.7225.0026.50-1.09-0.81
Cal St. FullertonBW0.480.4533.3330.60-0.16-0.18
Fresno St.MWC0.450.3763.6461.640.120.09
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.380.3631.8230.15-0.14-0.14
Boise St.MWC0.380.3360.8760.530.080.07
UC DavisBW0.330.3040.0036.70-0.07-0.08
Long Beach St.BW0.230.2645.4551.39-0.020.01
Colorado St.MWC0.290.2454.5552.540.030.01
MontanaBSky0.290.2157.8962.320.050.05
Utah St.MWC0.200.2147.6249.26-0.01-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.150.1858.3360.690.020.04
Cal PolyBW0.150.1830.0034.55-0.06-0.06
UCLAP120.190.1856.5253.270.020.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.200.1842.8650.41-0.030.00
HawaiiBW0.140.1784.2181.660.100.11
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.200.1652.3854.070.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.150.1669.5770.070.060.06
Air ForceMWC0.250.1643.4837.81-0.03-0.04
WyomingMWC0.200.1643.4842.47-0.03-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.140.1533.3334.95-0.05-0.05
UNLVMWC0.190.1552.1755.090.010.02
DrakeMVC0.140.1520.8323.19-0.08-0.08
BelmontOVC0.180.1568.0066.660.070.05
Weber St.BSky0.180.1465.0069.230.050.06
ColoradoP120.130.1469.5765.310.050.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1420.0022.26-0.08-0.08
Green BayHorz0.100.1354.5556.010.010.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.140.1242.1145.67-0.02-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.150.125.007.22-0.13-0.10
Oregon St.P120.140.1261.9056.450.030.02
Murray St.OVC0.140.1245.4549.69-0.01-0.00
CaliforniaP120.100.1265.2262.830.030.03
StanfordP120.100.1250.0046.530.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.1245.8343.68-0.01-0.02
USCP120.090.1278.2673.050.050.05
WashingtonP120.190.1262.5060.110.050.02
Washington St.P120.190.1236.3631.98-0.05-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.090.1156.0055.420.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1173.0872.640.060.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.130.1140.0040.34-0.03-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.160.0940.9143.75-0.03-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.0966.6767.710.030.03
DuquesneA100.100.0960.8756.360.020.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.099.0912.25-0.12-0.07
RiceCUSA0.140.0928.5729.66-0.06-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0913.6415.80-0.07-0.06
South DakotaSum0.090.0941.6741.24-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.140.0931.5837.72-0.05-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.140.0973.9176.740.070.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.140.0910.0013.14-0.11-0.06
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0947.6249.35-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.130.0945.0046.11-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.130.0935.0034.80-0.04-0.03
Notre DameACC0.140.0970.8367.820.060.03
BradleyMVC0.090.0912.0011.96-0.07-0.06
HarvardIvy0.090.0935.0038.52-0.03-0.02
UtahP120.050.0970.8368.500.020.03
ProvidenceBE0.140.0872.0069.150.060.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.0836.8442.89-0.03-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.0828.5733.35-0.06-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0642.8642.01-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0615.0015.32-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.050.0660.8757.160.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.0614.2920.65-0.07-0.04
DrexelCAA0.050.0613.6418.18-0.04-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0624.0024.17-0.02-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0657.8961.760.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0631.8232.69-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0621.7422.74-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0673.9172.580.050.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0647.6252.03-0.000.00
IPFWSum0.050.0670.8368.590.020.02
IUPUISum0.090.0640.0039.76-0.02-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0650.0049.850.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0621.7423.40-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0640.0045.48-0.02-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0658.3358.480.020.01
NJITASun0.090.0654.1755.260.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0663.6462.150.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0665.2267.120.010.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.0633.3335.05-0.03-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0668.0067.990.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0639.1341.11-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0686.9682.900.000.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0673.9174.700.040.03
StetsonASun0.050.0623.8127.73-0.02-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.090.0650.0048.130.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0675.0075.330.050.03
USC UpstateASun0.090.0622.7323.25-0.05-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0681.8283.030.030.04
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0627.7829.16-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.100.0656.5257.020.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0630.4332.35-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0647.6245.85-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.100.0647.6245.00-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0628.5727.00-0.04-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0654.1750.990.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0650.0049.600.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0637.5037.41-0.02-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0643.4850.66-0.010.00
OregonP120.090.0682.6179.250.060.03
OhioMAC0.090.0663.6461.480.020.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0654.1751.670.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0658.3358.370.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.090.0683.3378.400.060.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0666.6762.560.020.01
Michigan St.B100.090.0580.0081.580.050.03
MissouriSEC0.090.0533.3330.27-0.03-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.040.0552.0048.860.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.0515.0018.11-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.040.0550.0054.190.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.040.059.0917.14-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.040.0561.9065.310.010.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.040.0545.4554.16-0.000.00
IdahoBSky0.050.0354.5554.970.000.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0364.0057.920.010.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0360.8762.080.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0360.0060.100.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0382.6181.130.030.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0340.0042.85-0.01-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0386.9686.650.030.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0322.7327.18-0.02-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0334.7833.05-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0325.0027.23-0.02-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0345.8346.63-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0372.2274.680.020.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0317.3920.66-0.03-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0333.3334.19-0.02-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0386.9680.370.030.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0368.1865.160.020.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0365.2264.370.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0362.5056.960.010.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0350.0053.000.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0350.0049.770.00-0.00
KansasB120.050.0382.6179.190.030.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0330.0029.28-0.02-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0319.0525.90-0.03-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0365.2268.590.020.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0345.0049.23-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.050.0350.0044.680.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0313.0413.56-0.03-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0321.7423.32-0.03-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0375.0071.800.020.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0369.5764.900.020.01
FordhamA100.050.0352.3850.750.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0354.1751.980.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0379.1776.070.030.01
MaineAE0.050.0333.3333.13-0.02-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0382.6177.520.030.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0357.1453.980.010.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0350.0049.050.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0317.6526.58-0.03-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0350.0046.760.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0372.7367.630.020.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0337.5043.37-0.01-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0334.7835.64-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0383.3378.470.030.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0341.6739.91-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.040.0354.1754.290.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.040.0372.0071.540.020.01
Iowa St.B120.040.0370.8368.000.020.01
NebraskaB100.040.0352.0050.780.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.040.0345.8342.32-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.040.0314.2924.86-0.03-0.01
Texas TechB120.040.0360.8755.300.010.00