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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Santa Clara

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:210.0
Current RPI:210
Expected SOS:133
Current SOS:133
Current Record:12-19
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:7-13
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-3
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:285
Expected OOC SOS:327



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-19210.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Santa Clara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12San Jose St. (278.0)MWCH89-77W100%0.0
11-16Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWA86-73L0%0.0
11-22Notre Dame (136.0)ACCA84-69L0%0.0
11-29North Dakota St. (35.0)SumH85-91L0%0.0
11-30Rice (299.0)CUSAH66-67L0%0.0
12-5Cal St. Bakersfield (279.0)WACA42-60W100%0.0
12-7Cal Poly (208.0)BWA64-53L0%0.0
12-16Radford (240.0)BSthH75-62W100%0.0
12-18Sacred Heart (338.0)NECH70-61W100%0.0
12-22UNLV (108.0)MWCN92-71L0%0.0
12-23South Florida (232.0)AmerN66-65W100%0.0
12-28Gonzaga (20.0)WCCA74-60L0%0.0
12-30Portland (178.0)WCCA68-76W100%0.0
1-2Pepperdine (159.0)WCCH61-70L0%0.0
1-4Loyola Marymount (179.0)WCCH86-81W100%0.0
1-9Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCA55-57W100%0.0
1-11Pacific (133.0)WCCA80-68L0%0.0
1-16San Diego (156.0)WCCH66-69L0%0.0
1-18BYU (31.0)WCCH81-91L0%0.0
1-25San Francisco (68.0)WCCA75-66L0%0.0
1-29Gonzaga (20.0)WCCH52-54L0%0.0
2-1Portland (178.0)WCCH64-76L0%0.0
2-6BYU (31.0)WCCA89-76L0%0.0
2-8San Diego (156.0)WCCA63-69W100%0.0
2-15San Francisco (68.0)WCCH63-69L0%0.0
2-20Pacific (133.0)WCCH70-50W100%0.0
2-22Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCH54-76L0%0.0
2-27Loyola Marymount (179.0)WCCA75-71L0%0.0
3-1Pepperdine (159.0)WCCA78-86W100%0.0
3-6Pacific (133.0)WCCN64-81W100%0.0
3-8Gonzaga (20.0)WCCN77-75L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Santa Clara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Santa Clara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Santa Clara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Santa ClaraWCC26.4926.4938.2238.22-6.24-6.24
GonzagaWCC5.835.8380.0080.003.503.50
PacificWCC5.745.7450.0050.000.000.00
BYUWCC4.354.3564.5264.521.261.26
Saint Mary'sWCC4.324.3266.6766.671.441.44
Loyola MarymountWCC4.294.2937.9337.93-1.04-1.04
PepperdineWCC4.274.2746.4346.43-0.30-0.30
San FranciscoWCC4.264.2660.7160.710.910.91
PortlandWCC4.244.2448.2848.28-0.15-0.15
San DiegoWCC4.214.2146.4346.43-0.30-0.30
Cal PolyBW1.801.8034.4834.48-0.56-0.56
Cal St. FullertonBW1.771.7733.3333.33-0.59-0.59
San Jose St.MWC1.771.7717.8617.86-1.14-1.14
UNLVMWC1.721.7259.3859.380.320.32
North Dakota St.Sum1.691.6977.7877.780.940.94
Sacred HeartNEC1.661.6616.6716.67-1.11-1.11
RadfordBSth1.661.6662.0762.070.400.40
Notre DameACC1.641.6445.1645.16-0.16-0.16
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.611.6140.0040.00-0.32-0.32
RiceCUSA1.611.6114.8114.81-1.14-1.14
South FloridaAmer1.611.6138.7138.71-0.36-0.36
NevadaMWC0.290.2946.8846.88-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.270.2765.6265.620.080.08
Fresno St.MWC0.240.2448.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.240.2454.8454.840.020.02
OregonP120.210.2171.8871.880.090.09
UC RiversideBW0.210.2127.5927.59-0.09-0.09
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.210.2167.8667.860.080.08
UC DavisBW0.190.1924.1424.14-0.10-0.10
Long Beach St.BW0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.180.1887.1087.100.140.14
BryantNEC0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.160.1670.3770.370.070.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.160.1657.1457.140.020.02
BradleyMVC0.160.1637.5037.50-0.04-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.160.1644.8344.83-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.160.1681.8281.820.100.10
Grand CanyonWAC0.160.1646.1546.15-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.160.1662.0762.070.040.04
Boise St.MWC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
Washington St.P120.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.150.1573.5373.530.070.07
Western IllinoisSum0.140.1425.9325.93-0.07-0.07
DenverSum0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.130.133.573.57-0.12-0.12
MemphisAmer0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1148.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
HoustonAmer0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
AmericanPat0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
PittsburghACC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
IdahoWAC0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
IPFWSum0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0814.8114.81-0.06-0.06
DelawareCAA0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Weber St.BSky0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
George MasonA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
RutgersAmer0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Kansas St.B120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
OaklandHorz0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
RiderMAAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
CampbellBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UICHorz0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
MontanaBSky0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
VMIBSth0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
CornellIvy0.050.053.703.70-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Murray St.OVC0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
BrownIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
LafayettePat0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MarylandACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
IllinoisB100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01