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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Santa Clara

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:246.4
Current RPI:296
Expected SOS:112
Current SOS:227
Current Record:3-6
Expected Record:10-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-4
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:304
Expected OOC SOS:262



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-13117.50.02%
16-14136.20.21%
15-15152.90.70%
14-16170.82.07%
13-17191.25.64%
12-18209.010.79%
11-19227.515.95%
10-20245.720.56%
9-21262.419.20%
8-22277.713.94%
7-23291.47.39%
6-24303.52.73%
5-25312.50.72%
4-26317.80.06%
3-27325.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Santa Clara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Northern Arizona (342.0)BSkyH67-64W100%0.0
11-12UC Davis (256.1)BWH58-63L0%0.0
11-13Tennessee St. (96.9)OVCH61-69L0%0.0
11-19Northern Colorado (281.3)BSkyH88-72W100%0.0
11-21Sacred Heart (310.2)NECH84-74W100%0.0
11-24Arizona (29.2)P12N61-69L0%0.0
11-25Vanderbilt (74.8)SECN66-76L0%0.0
11-30UC Irvine (159.9)BWH55-58L0%0.0
12-3San Jose St. (192.3)MWCA55-40L0%0.0
12-13UC Riverside (301.7)BWH0-073%7.3
12-17Washington St. (227.6)P12A0-036%-4.2
12-22Valparaiso (72.3)HorzA0-014%-12.8
12-29BYU (74.5)WCCA0-010%-15.7
12-31San Francisco (160.4)WCCH0-049%-0.2
1-5Portland (141.2)WCCH0-044%-1.8
1-7Loyola Marymount (167.9)WCCA0-026%-7.7
1-12San Diego (240.5)WCCA0-049%-0.4
1-14Pepperdine (195.4)WCCA0-039%-3.4
1-19Gonzaga (10.0)WCCH0-05%-19.6
1-21Loyola Marymount (167.9)WCCH0-045%-1.4
1-26BYU (74.5)WCCH0-022%-9.5
1-28Saint Mary's (16.1)WCCH0-08%-17.0
2-2Portland (141.2)WCCA0-025%-8.1
2-4Gonzaga (10.0)WCCA0-02%-25.9
2-9San Francisco (160.4)WCCA0-029%-6.5
2-11Pacific (174.3)WCCA0-029%-6.7
2-16Pepperdine (195.4)WCCH0-059%2.9
2-18San Diego (240.5)WCCH0-069%5.8
2-23Pacific (174.3)WCCH0-049%-0.4
2-25Saint Mary's (16.1)WCCA0-03%-23.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Santa Clara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Santa Clara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Santa Clara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Santa ClaraWCC28.2126.3720.9328.64-16.40-11.27
PortlandWCC0.464.3157.1449.670.07-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.464.30100.0089.210.463.37
BYUWCC0.004.2862.5065.880.001.36
PacificWCC0.314.2742.8644.89-0.04-0.44
GonzagaWCC0.314.27100.0091.880.313.58
San DiegoWCC0.314.2737.5030.40-0.08-1.67
PepperdineWCC0.004.2442.8632.22-0.00-1.51
Loyola MarymountWCC0.004.2425.0044.40-0.00-0.47
San FranciscoWCC0.004.2485.7153.240.000.27
UC IrvineBW5.861.9337.5051.62-1.470.06
UC RiversideBW0.001.870.0031.47-0.00-0.69
ArizonaP126.641.8775.0069.303.320.72
UC DavisBW6.261.8542.8643.72-0.89-0.23
Northern ArizonaBSky6.301.8512.5020.97-4.72-1.07
San Jose St.MWC5.561.8140.0038.40-1.11-0.42
Northern ColoradoBSky6.171.8120.0041.87-3.70-0.29
Washington St.P120.461.7542.8627.97-0.07-0.77
Tennessee St.OVC6.521.7583.3368.774.350.66
Sacred HeartNEC6.331.7250.0039.420.00-0.36
ValparaisoHorz0.001.7285.7174.880.000.86
VanderbiltSEC5.951.7050.0045.000.00-0.17
Portland St.BSky0.000.3540.0043.88-0.00-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.3528.5733.56-0.00-0.11
UCLAP120.000.31100.0086.650.000.23
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.300.0033.71-0.00-0.10
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.2925.0043.29-0.00-0.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.350.290.0022.30-0.35-0.16
USCP120.000.28100.0076.400.000.15
NevadaMWC0.000.2677.7871.770.000.11
Cal PolyBW0.000.2442.8641.13-0.00-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.000.240.0038.43-0.00-0.05
Southern UtahBSky0.000.240.0025.31-0.00-0.12
Weber St.BSky0.350.2316.6749.78-0.23-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.2125.0048.70-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.2057.1457.780.000.03
WashingtonP120.310.1957.1452.140.040.01
ColoradoP120.000.1975.0062.450.000.05
HawaiiBW0.000.1842.8650.82-0.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.1850.0056.890.000.02
UtahP120.000.1880.0058.220.000.03
IdahoBSky0.810.1750.0053.130.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1760.0069.260.000.07
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1571.4360.090.000.03
BelmontOVC0.310.1557.1464.500.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1571.4355.680.000.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.1412.5029.77-0.00-0.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1442.8644.89-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.310.1487.5064.760.230.04
StanfordP120.000.1466.6758.600.000.02
DaytonA100.000.1471.4373.270.000.07
UNLVMWC0.310.1262.5042.780.08-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1257.1443.930.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.1233.3355.64-0.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.1266.6753.730.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1262.5067.590.000.04
Utah St.MWC0.310.1142.8650.57-0.040.00
Arizona St.P120.000.1155.5637.870.00-0.03
Oregon St.P120.000.1125.0023.62-0.00-0.06
Green BayHorz0.000.1137.5048.85-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.1150.0046.820.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.1122.2246.51-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.1177.7872.930.000.05
TennesseeSEC0.000.1150.0044.700.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.620.1150.0064.910.000.03
DenverSum0.460.0942.8645.65-0.07-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0957.1448.110.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.310.0950.0045.920.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0942.8656.48-0.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0925.0030.02-0.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0975.0069.680.000.03
Little RockSB0.000.0966.6761.400.000.02
ButlerBE1.080.08100.0074.831.080.04
AkronMAC0.000.0871.4368.930.000.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.310.0837.5037.96-0.08-0.02
OaklandHorz0.350.0885.7177.000.250.05
OregonP120.000.0875.0072.800.000.04
Iowa St.B120.000.0875.0071.330.000.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.080.0017.16-0.00-0.05
KentuckySEC0.000.0887.5082.220.000.05
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0871.4365.470.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0050.980.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0616.6738.87-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0625.0027.74-0.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0640.0054.81-0.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.29-0.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0642.8644.90-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0625.0042.78-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0642.8640.38-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0625.0041.19-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0642.8636.07-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0642.8658.24-0.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.310.0612.5033.31-0.23-0.02
BucknellPat0.770.0670.0070.530.310.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.400.0687.5075.730.300.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.0662.5058.130.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0612.5031.01-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0675.0058.720.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0671.4363.080.000.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0642.8637.05-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0633.3331.35-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0612.5033.18-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.000.0662.5056.520.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0026.22-0.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.620.0625.0040.17-0.31-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0070.350.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0660.0062.420.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0650.0059.840.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0637.5035.03-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0628.5731.07-0.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0671.4358.170.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.17-0.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0020.63-0.00-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0657.1453.860.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0628.5737.54-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0657.1450.790.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0620.0022.88-0.00-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0662.5052.060.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0637.5038.08-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0021.30-0.00-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0557.1451.740.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0587.5069.040.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0528.5727.38-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0525.0038.98-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0516.6739.99-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0566.6751.140.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0562.5052.400.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0562.5044.840.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0511.1149.12-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.620.050.0036.38-0.62-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0520.0060.00-0.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0530.0045.49-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0525.0023.99-0.00-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0512.5026.05-0.00-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0533.3340.37-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0528.5752.65-0.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0333.3336.67-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0325.0040.78-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.400.0337.5044.42-0.10-0.00
DukeACC0.000.0390.0080.060.000.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0357.1449.640.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.400.0311.1132.47-0.31-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0060.950.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0050.980.000.00
OklahomaB120.460.0371.4348.030.20-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0350.0042.770.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0342.8638.35-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0055.480.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.540.000.02
DrakeMVC0.350.030.0020.21-0.35-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.310.0383.3379.920.210.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0388.8956.710.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4358.830.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0340.0041.72-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0357.1459.020.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0316.6738.83-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0350.0050.170.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0320.0022.08-0.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0342.8650.98-0.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0360.0058.900.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0366.6770.400.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0320.0035.46-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.280.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0357.1429.760.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0375.0074.590.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.310.0362.5055.890.080.00
FordhamA100.310.0350.0041.640.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0357.1451.810.000.00
HartfordAE0.310.0322.2226.44-0.17-0.01
High PointBSth0.310.0337.5044.87-0.08-0.00
HofstraCAA0.310.0355.5643.870.03-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0337.5047.44-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.000.0342.8635.40-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4347.690.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.310.0377.7864.250.170.01
Michigan St.B100.310.0360.0058.780.060.00
MinnesotaB100.310.0388.8966.920.240.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0047.990.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0375.0047.520.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0078.180.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.310.0350.0066.380.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.310.0320.0035.15-0.19-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0342.8663.63-0.000.01