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Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


Santa Clara

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:194.4
Current RPI:180
Expected SOS:114
Current SOS:226
Current Record:4-4
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:190
Expected OOC SOS:231



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-848.00.01%
19-962.40.05%
18-1078.80.09%
17-1195.30.57%
16-12111.61.49%
15-13128.14.42%
14-14147.79.75%
13-15167.016.43%
12-16186.819.40%
11-17207.219.57%
10-18227.614.90%
9-19246.68.68%
8-20265.03.54%
7-21279.90.82%
6-22295.50.25%
5-23306.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Santa Clara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Cal St. Fullerton (264.2)BWH89-72W100%0.0
11-19Utah St. (163.5)MWCA60-54L0%0.0
11-24Michigan St. (26.6)B10A79-52L0%0.0
11-27Tennessee (131.7)SECN64-57L0%0.0
11-28Rhode Island (61.4)A10N66-44L0%0.0
11-30Rider (193.6)MAACN60-68W100%0.0
12-6San Jose St. (327.4)MWCA50-61W100%0.0
12-13Washington St. (211.6)P12H76-67W100%0.0
12-20Northeastern (134.1)CAAH0-055%1.5
12-23Cal Poly (236.0)BWH0-074%7.6
12-27Saint Mary's (114.2)WCCA0-021%-9.6
12-29Pacific (203.2)WCCA0-038%-3.5
1-1BYU (54.5)WCCH0-030%-6.3
1-3San Diego (91.2)WCCH0-038%-3.5
1-8Portland (182.6)WCCA0-033%-5.3
1-10Gonzaga (11.8)WCCA0-02%-25.6
1-17San Francisco (148.4)WCCH0-049%-0.3
1-22Loyola Marymount (255.9)WCCH0-076%8.2
1-24Pepperdine (131.9)WCCH0-048%-0.6
1-29San Diego (91.2)WCCA0-015%-12.3
1-31BYU (54.5)WCCA0-010%-15.0
2-5Gonzaga (11.8)WCCH0-08%-16.8
2-7Portland (182.6)WCCH0-062%3.5
2-12San Francisco (148.4)WCCA0-022%-9.1
2-19Pepperdine (131.9)WCCA0-021%-9.4
2-21Loyola Marymount (255.9)WCCA0-048%-0.6
2-26Pacific (203.2)WCCH0-067%5.3
2-28Saint Mary's (114.2)WCCH0-047%-0.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Santa Clara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Santa Clara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Santa Clara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Santa ClaraWCC27.6826.4452.9439.651.63-5.47
GonzagaWCC0.314.6590.0090.760.253.79
Saint Mary'sWCC0.004.6471.4356.750.000.63
PepperdineWCC0.634.6475.0058.390.320.78
San FranciscoWCC0.004.6244.4447.86-0.00-0.20
BYUWCC0.394.6166.6766.870.131.56
PortlandWCC0.354.6166.6748.670.12-0.12
San DiegoWCC0.004.5854.5556.440.000.59
Loyola MarymountWCC0.004.5725.0022.83-0.00-2.49
PacificWCC0.004.5742.8637.63-0.00-1.13
Cal PolyBW0.002.0642.8638.50-0.00-0.47
San Jose St.MWC6.532.040.008.16-6.53-1.70
Cal St. FullertonBW6.601.9540.0040.27-1.32-0.38
Utah St.MWC6.251.9142.8651.43-0.890.05
NortheasternCAA0.001.8866.6757.990.000.30
Washington St.P126.251.8844.4430.07-0.69-0.75
Michigan St.B106.531.8170.0072.222.610.81
RiderMAAC6.531.8150.0053.740.000.14
Rhode IslandA106.251.7957.1472.600.890.81
TennesseeSEC6.251.7942.8644.31-0.89-0.20
UC IrvineBW0.000.3337.5046.91-0.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.3275.0068.510.000.12
Fresno St.MWC0.000.2930.0029.48-0.00-0.12
NevadaMWC0.280.2612.5024.75-0.21-0.13
HawaiiBW0.000.2566.6754.090.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.350.2562.5055.120.090.03
UC DavisBW0.740.2285.7161.530.530.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.310.2237.5064.54-0.080.06
UC RiversideBW0.000.2042.8643.73-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1920.0028.69-0.00-0.08
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1940.0049.99-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.1975.0050.770.000.00
StanfordP120.000.1975.0058.750.000.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1970.0072.770.000.08
UCLAP120.280.1872.7357.410.130.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.16100.0077.970.000.09
Arizona St.P120.000.1660.0054.270.000.01
WashingtonP120.350.16100.0072.030.350.07
USCP120.670.1660.0037.230.13-0.04
MassachusettsA100.000.1560.0055.530.000.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.280.1542.8641.92-0.04-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1340.0050.48-0.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1344.4447.39-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.310.1316.6733.24-0.21-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.000.1357.1461.280.000.03
Portland St.BSky0.000.1357.1447.960.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.1377.7873.090.000.06
RichmondA100.000.1250.0057.040.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.280.1270.0058.440.110.02
Oregon St.P120.000.1275.0049.720.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1255.5640.200.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.1287.5064.520.000.04
PrincetonIvy0.630.1227.2737.77-0.29-0.03
ColoradoP120.000.1266.6757.580.000.02
UtahP120.000.1277.7879.670.000.07
KansasB121.350.1288.8969.541.050.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.390.1211.1144.96-0.30-0.01
MercerSC0.000.1037.5041.84-0.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0990.0066.470.000.03
IowaB100.000.0972.7362.590.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0920.0037.19-0.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.390.0928.5742.24-0.17-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.090.008.74-0.00-0.08
PurdueB100.000.0972.7363.690.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.390.0950.0039.320.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.09100.0080.830.000.06
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0962.5059.460.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0944.4439.99-0.00-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0922.2237.72-0.00-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0737.5031.79-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0787.5085.210.000.05
CreightonBE0.000.0672.7351.600.000.00
DenverSum0.000.0650.0053.980.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0620.0020.14-0.00-0.04
FordhamA100.000.0628.5728.28-0.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.0630.0044.01-0.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0620.0026.18-0.00-0.03
La SalleA100.000.0650.0049.770.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0625.0027.83-0.00-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.0655.5661.640.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0636.3664.92-0.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0660.0034.010.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0024.33-0.00-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0037.67-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0680.0069.840.000.03
SeattleWAC0.350.0637.5046.46-0.09-0.00
VCUA100.390.0670.0071.520.160.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8638.50-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0637.5048.87-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8655.67-0.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6776.500.000.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0675.0070.220.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0012.28-0.00-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0675.0071.470.000.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0620.0038.66-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0625.0051.40-0.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0038.50-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0620.0029.28-0.00-0.03
XavierBE0.000.0680.0071.020.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.0644.4449.46-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.670.0677.7851.090.370.00
NebraskaB100.390.0666.6743.830.13-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0677.7871.830.000.03
LSUSEC0.000.0677.7862.380.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0655.5660.050.000.01
OregonP120.000.0666.6759.200.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0670.0071.340.000.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0662.5064.360.000.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0611.1143.93-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0675.0060.600.000.01
MarquetteBE0.670.0655.5647.640.07-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0650.0061.650.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0650.0044.640.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0625.0037.61-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0637.5048.14-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0677.7878.200.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.0672.7365.950.000.02
IndianaB100.000.0680.0057.470.000.01
IonaMAAC0.280.0666.6772.380.090.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.0670.0060.810.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0610.0018.78-0.00-0.04
MarylandB100.000.0690.9167.700.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0644.4456.70-0.000.01
NavyPat0.280.0620.0021.41-0.17-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0614.2931.11-0.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0660.0040.460.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0637.5045.89-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0636.3647.27-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.280.0637.5051.47-0.070.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0666.6751.310.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0650.0053.700.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0657.1456.560.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0655.5642.690.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0357.1456.730.000.00
BrownIvy0.000.0340.0033.85-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0387.5077.040.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0377.7869.890.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.390.0340.0046.88-0.08-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.0328.5731.25-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0325.0025.95-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6766.690.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.390.0372.7352.880.180.00
Southern MissCUSA0.390.0350.0032.540.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0064.990.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.390.0355.5654.600.040.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0311.1129.64-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.280.0350.0054.660.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.390.0366.6764.900.130.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0357.1454.700.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0325.0028.71-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.280.0360.0064.580.060.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.390.0333.3340.60-0.13-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.280.0355.5653.800.030.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6755.660.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0344.4435.62-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.390.0380.0072.470.230.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0371.4364.070.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0360.0064.870.000.01
IdahoBSky0.310.0337.5049.83-0.08-0.00
Kansas St.B120.390.0360.0037.340.08-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0094.670.000.03
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6752.510.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0344.4431.65-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.310.0337.5040.12-0.08-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.390.0381.8264.060.250.01
RiceCUSA0.310.0316.6725.04-0.21-0.01
TCUB120.310.03100.0066.280.310.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0016.94-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0049.770.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0377.7865.350.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.310.0366.6772.280.100.01
UTSACUSA0.310.0342.8637.04-0.04-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.280.0320.0038.33-0.17-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0333.3341.58-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.280.0322.2231.12-0.16-0.01
DukeACC0.280.03100.0087.440.280.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.280.0371.4363.540.120.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0350.0037.400.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.280.0350.0050.820.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0385.7172.940.000.01
LehighPat0.280.0342.8652.31-0.040.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.280.0371.4359.600.120.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0377.7864.890.000.01
Notre DameACC0.280.0390.9171.750.230.01
OaklandHorz0.280.0330.0032.16-0.11-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0390.0084.620.000.02
PennIvy0.280.0337.5032.89-0.07-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0390.9154.060.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0360.0034.930.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0316.6730.49-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0314.2933.80-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.430.000.02