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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Portland St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:252.0
Current RPI:252
Expected SOS:305
Current SOS:305
Current Record:15-14
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:12-10
Expected Conf Record:12-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-7
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC RPI:313
Expected OOC SOS:309



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-14252.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Portland St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8UNLV (108.0)MWCA67-48L0%0.0
11-22Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCH67-63W100%0.0
11-23SIU Edwardsville (320.0)OVCH77-74W100%0.0
11-24UC Davis (326.0)BWH79-63W100%0.0
11-29Boise St. (82.0)MWCA76-60L0%0.0
12-7Portland (178.0)WCCH76-92L0%0.0
12-14Idaho (238.0)WACH75-76L0%0.0
1-2Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyA87-76L0%0.0
1-4Weber St. (149.0)BSkyA79-62L0%0.0
1-9Montana St. (275.0)BSkyH76-79L0%0.0
1-11Montana (183.0)BSkyH81-78W100%0.0
1-16Sacramento St. (263.0)BSkyA64-68W100%0.0
1-18Northern Arizona (247.0)BSkyA77-56L0%0.0
1-25Southern Utah (346.0)BSkyH67-64W100%0.0
1-27Eastern Washington (228.0)BSkyH92-83W100%0.0
1-30Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyH80-57W100%0.0
2-1North Dakota (197.0)BSkyH70-68W100%0.0
2-6Montana (183.0)BSkyA82-76L0%0.0
2-8Montana St. (275.0)BSkyA69-64L0%0.0
2-13Northern Arizona (247.0)BSkyH63-65L0%0.0
2-15Sacramento St. (263.0)BSkyH65-72L0%0.0
2-20Southern Utah (346.0)BSkyA79-86W100%0.0
2-24Eastern Washington (228.0)BSkyA76-87W100%0.0
2-27North Dakota (197.0)BSkyA83-73L0%0.0
3-1Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyA68-77W100%0.0
3-6Weber St. (149.0)BSkyH66-59W100%0.0
3-8Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyH78-74W100%0.0
3-13Montana (183.0)BSkyN63-70W100%0.0
3-14North Dakota (197.0)BSkyN79-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Portland St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Portland St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Portland St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Portland St.BSky26.6926.6949.6149.61-0.21-0.21
North DakotaBSky6.456.4546.4346.43-0.46-0.46
MontanaBSky6.366.3656.0056.000.760.76
Weber St.BSky4.784.7861.5461.541.101.10
Northern ColoradoBSky4.764.7659.2659.260.880.88
Sacramento St.BSky4.754.7542.3142.31-0.73-0.73
Northern ArizonaBSky4.714.7141.3841.38-0.81-0.81
Southern UtahBSky4.704.703.853.85-4.33-4.33
Montana St.BSky4.674.6737.0437.04-1.21-1.21
Idaho St.BSky4.664.6632.0032.00-1.68-1.68
Eastern WashingtonBSky4.654.6548.1548.15-0.17-0.17
IdahoWAC2.062.0643.7543.75-0.26-0.26
PortlandWCC1.901.9046.6746.67-0.13-0.13
UC DavisBW1.901.9025.0025.00-0.95-0.95
UNLVMWC1.841.8459.3859.380.340.34
Boise St.MWC1.801.8058.0658.060.290.29
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.781.7830.0030.00-0.71-0.71
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.781.7832.1432.14-0.64-0.64
UC RiversideBW0.300.3027.5927.59-0.14-0.14
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.300.3038.7138.71-0.07-0.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.290.2945.4545.45-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.240.2465.6265.620.070.07
HawaiiBW0.230.2362.0762.070.060.06
Utah St.MWC0.230.2354.8454.840.020.02
WyomingMWC0.230.2353.3353.330.020.02
WashingtonP120.220.2253.1253.120.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.210.2163.3363.330.060.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.210.2135.4835.48-0.06-0.06
Colorado St.MWC0.200.2046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.200.2017.2417.24-0.13-0.13
San Diego St.MWC0.190.1987.1087.100.140.14
South Dakota St.Sum0.180.1857.1457.140.030.03
SeattleWAC0.170.1739.2939.29-0.04-0.04
NevadaMWC0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.140.1462.0762.070.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.1473.5373.530.060.06
Air ForceMWC0.140.1435.7135.71-0.04-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
UCLAP120.120.1276.4776.470.070.07
UTEPCUSA0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
UtahP120.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.120.1235.7135.71-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
San DiegoWCC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1146.1546.15-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Arizona St.P120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0967.8667.860.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0878.5778.570.050.05
OregonP120.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
WisconsinB100.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
ArizonaP120.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Oregon St.P120.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
USCP120.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01