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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


Portland St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:272.8
Current RPI:286
Expected SOS:295
Current SOS:276
Current Record:6-12
Expected Record:11-16
Current Conf Record:4-5
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-8
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:339
Expected OOC SOS:335



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-12198.20.05%
14-13211.21.08%
13-14228.56.05%
12-15247.617.10%
11-16266.828.40%
10-17284.326.96%
9-18299.614.74%
8-19313.24.82%
7-20323.30.76%
6-21331.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Portland St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Grand Canyon (100.6)WACA82-72L0%0.0
11-22UT Rio Grande Valley (339.9)WACA61-79W100%0.0
11-25Nevada (129.7)MWCA76-73L0%0.0
12-2Portland (249.8)WCCH72-78L0%0.0
12-6Washington St. (177.1)P12A91-67L0%0.0
12-12SIU Edwardsville (309.6)OVCA74-64L0%0.0
12-17Cal St. Northridge (274.5)BWH71-77L0%0.0
12-22Cal St. Bakersfield (144.1)WACA78-66L0%0.0
12-29Cal St. Fullerton (280.9)BWH89-82W100%0.0
1-2Sacramento St. (238.1)BSkyH76-68W100%0.0
1-7Montana (153.5)BSkyA79-66L0%0.0
1-9Montana St. (270.0)BSkyA70-77W100%0.0
1-14Weber St. (127.5)BSkyH58-73L0%0.0
1-16Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyH70-73L0%0.0
1-23Sacramento St. (238.1)BSkyA63-81W100%0.0
1-28Eastern Washington (216.7)BSkyA112-83L0%0.0
1-30Idaho (207.6)BSkyA56-55L0%0.0
2-4Montana St. (270.0)BSkyH83-68W100%0.0
2-6Montana (153.5)BSkyH0-041%-2.4
2-11Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyA0-048%-0.6
2-13Weber St. (127.5)BSkyA0-012%-13.0
2-18Idaho (207.6)BSkyH0-053%0.9
2-20Eastern Washington (216.7)BSkyH0-050%-0.1
2-25North Dakota (226.4)BSkyA0-028%-6.3
2-27Northern Colorado (303.1)BSkyA0-053%0.8
3-3Northern Arizona (329.4)BSkyH0-087%12.5
3-5Southern Utah (333.3)BSkyH0-088%12.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Portland St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Portland St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Portland St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Portland St.BSky26.5426.3736.5940.57-7.12-4.97
Sacramento St.BSky6.184.6750.0052.410.000.22
Idaho St.BSky3.344.6438.8940.13-0.74-0.92
IdahoBSky3.424.6255.0056.800.340.63
Montana St.BSky6.004.5542.1144.28-0.95-0.52
Weber St.BSky3.144.5466.6770.111.051.83
Eastern WashingtonBSky3.214.5147.3751.39-0.170.13
MontanaBSky3.354.5152.9459.370.200.84
Northern ArizonaBSky0.702.925.2610.09-0.62-2.33
Southern UtahBSky0.632.8915.7916.56-0.43-1.93
Northern ColoradoBSky0.562.8530.0029.34-0.23-1.18
North DakotaBSky0.562.8544.4445.94-0.06-0.23
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC3.042.1563.1666.210.800.70
PortlandWCC3.152.0934.7834.35-0.96-0.65
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.982.0615.7916.28-2.04-1.39
Grand CanyonWAC2.982.0380.9580.311.841.23
Cal St. FullertonBW2.982.0238.8934.10-0.66-0.64
Washington St.P122.922.0235.0031.08-0.88-0.76
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2.921.9926.3225.97-1.39-0.95
NevadaMWC2.981.9555.5654.490.330.17
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.841.8814.2919.98-2.03-1.13
SeattleWAC0.570.4445.0042.81-0.06-0.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.550.4435.0035.36-0.16-0.13
UC DavisBW0.650.3736.8434.20-0.17-0.12
San Jose St.MWC0.410.3025.0022.58-0.20-0.16
North Dakota St.Sum0.350.2761.9060.410.080.06
PacificWCC0.430.2621.0524.61-0.25-0.13
Utah St.MWC0.290.2347.3749.38-0.02-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.330.2352.3848.890.02-0.01
HawaiiBW0.280.2383.3380.130.190.14
DenverSum0.220.2352.1748.790.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.480.2340.9140.46-0.09-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.200.214.557.91-0.18-0.18
New Mexico St.WAC0.270.2163.6468.210.070.08
UMKCWAC0.270.2130.0034.84-0.11-0.06
UC RiversideBW0.350.2047.8343.92-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.360.2039.1339.48-0.08-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.210.2066.6766.030.070.06
GonzagaWCC0.200.2077.2776.130.110.10
USCP120.330.1978.2673.130.190.09
WashingtonP120.220.1768.1862.190.080.04
Arizona St.P120.290.1752.1750.240.010.00
PepperdineWCC0.260.1759.0958.100.050.03
UtahP120.140.1672.7368.550.060.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.270.1640.9140.96-0.05-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.140.1331.5836.16-0.05-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.070.1342.8651.33-0.010.00
UC IrvineBW0.140.1372.7371.670.060.06
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.1340.0049.74-0.01-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.140.1347.6252.92-0.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.150.1376.1976.220.080.07
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.1385.0085.230.090.09
Colorado St.MWC0.060.1350.0048.750.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.200.1359.0959.470.040.02
San DiegoWCC0.200.1333.3329.23-0.07-0.05
BYUWCC0.130.1369.5773.030.050.06
ColoradoP120.120.1372.7366.970.060.04
KansasB120.080.1080.9577.000.050.06
Fresno St.MWC0.140.1060.0057.290.030.01
LamarSlnd0.140.1033.3332.69-0.05-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1014.2916.31-0.09-0.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.1045.4547.97-0.01-0.00
StanfordP120.150.1052.6347.690.01-0.00
UNLVMWC0.070.1052.3857.440.000.01
Oregon St.P120.150.1060.0054.590.030.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.1034.7837.55-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.140.1050.0050.510.000.00
DrakeMVC0.150.1022.7324.85-0.08-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.1042.8641.75-0.01-0.02
ArizonaP120.130.1078.2677.230.070.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.1090.0086.120.050.07
New MexicoMWC0.140.1063.6464.090.040.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.140.1066.6760.120.050.02
UCLAP120.200.1056.5253.350.030.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.190.0931.8232.32-0.07-0.03
HoustonAmer0.130.0772.7368.010.060.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.0721.0529.16-0.08-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.150.0753.3355.180.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0752.1754.140.000.01
Texas St.SB0.140.0741.1840.28-0.02-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.140.0750.0050.040.000.00
ButlerBE0.060.0768.1866.490.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0750.0046.870.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.060.0760.0061.350.010.02
Air ForceMWC0.070.0742.8635.05-0.01-0.02
DavidsonA100.070.0757.8955.400.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0738.1042.99-0.02-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0726.0925.56-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.070.0780.0070.290.040.03
San Diego St.MWC0.140.0771.4370.810.060.03
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0725.0029.91-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.0633.3334.18-0.04-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.0675.0073.480.060.03
BuffaloMAC0.130.0657.1457.510.020.01
North TexasCUSA0.070.0630.0029.46-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.070.0640.9143.37-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.130.0666.6762.710.040.02
TroySB0.070.0620.0023.76-0.04-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0455.0048.870.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.048.709.77-0.00-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.070.0433.3332.01-0.02-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0445.0049.60-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0459.0955.550.000.00
Miami FLACC0.070.0480.9575.640.040.02
North FloridaASun0.070.0468.1869.350.030.01
WisconsinB100.000.0460.8755.900.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0431.8233.75-0.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0341.6740.25-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0338.1047.51-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0363.6459.950.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0314.2913.97-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0345.0041.83-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0369.5770.030.020.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0328.5734.73-0.03-0.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0330.0030.38-0.03-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0357.8957.330.010.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0310.0014.87-0.05-0.02
Green BayHorz0.060.0357.1457.880.010.01
IPFWSum0.060.0373.9170.210.030.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0381.8277.490.040.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0347.8350.56-0.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0361.9062.050.020.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0317.3921.76-0.04-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0352.3854.240.000.00
NorthwesternB100.060.0366.6763.480.020.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0338.1033.38-0.02-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0363.1666.150.020.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0365.0060.810.020.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0366.6765.410.020.01
UMBCAE0.000.0320.8325.01-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0376.1979.640.040.02
Wright St.Horz0.070.0354.5555.190.010.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0363.6461.810.000.01
OklahomaB120.070.0390.4884.890.050.02
OregonP120.000.0381.8278.210.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0347.6257.27-0.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0333.3333.55-0.02-0.01