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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Portland St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:282.0
Current RPI:282
Expected SOS:292
Current SOS:292
Current Record:11-18
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-8
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:339
Expected OOC SOS:338



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-18282.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Portland St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Grand Canyon (91.0)WACA82-72L0%0.0
11-22UT Rio Grande Valley (338.0)WACA61-79W100%0.0
11-25Nevada (118.0)MWCA76-73L0%0.0
12-2Portland (249.0)WCCH72-78L0%0.0
12-6Washington St. (212.0)P12A91-67L0%0.0
12-12SIU Edwardsville (305.0)OVCA74-64L0%0.0
12-17Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWH71-77L0%0.0
12-22Cal St. Bakersfield (117.0)WACA78-66L0%0.0
12-29Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWH89-82W100%0.0
1-2Sacramento St. (273.0)BSkyH76-68W100%0.0
1-7Montana (145.0)BSkyA79-66L0%0.0
1-9Montana St. (260.0)BSkyA70-77W100%0.0
1-14Weber St. (108.0)BSkyH58-73L0%0.0
1-16Idaho St. (256.0)BSkyH70-73L0%0.0
1-23Sacramento St. (273.0)BSkyA63-81W100%0.0
1-28Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyA112-83L0%0.0
1-30Idaho (191.0)BSkyA56-55L0%0.0
2-4Montana St. (260.0)BSkyH83-68W100%0.0
2-6Montana (145.0)BSkyH80-82L0%0.0
2-11Idaho St. (256.0)BSkyA88-71L0%0.0
2-13Weber St. (108.0)BSkyA87-78L0%0.0
2-18Idaho (191.0)BSkyH74-80L0%0.0
2-20Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyH107-91W100%0.0
2-25North Dakota (218.0)BSkyA80-77L0%0.0
2-27Northern Colorado (304.0)BSkyA86-89W100%0.0
3-3Northern Arizona (333.0)BSkyH89-81W100%0.0
3-5Southern Utah (336.0)BSkyH88-86W100%0.0
3-8Northern Colorado (304.0)BSkyN74-67W100%0.0
3-10Weber St. (108.0)BSkyN78-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Portland St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Portland St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Portland St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Portland St.BSky26.4326.4338.9338.93-5.85-5.85
Weber St.BSky6.066.0671.4371.432.602.60
Sacramento St.BSky4.494.4944.4444.44-0.50-0.50
IdahoBSky4.454.4558.6258.620.770.77
MontanaBSky4.444.4459.2659.260.820.82
Idaho St.BSky4.414.4144.4444.44-0.49-0.49
Northern ColoradoBSky4.374.3729.6329.63-1.78-1.78
Montana St.BSky4.334.3346.4346.43-0.31-0.31
Eastern WashingtonBSky4.334.3350.0050.000.000.00
North DakotaBSky2.882.8846.4346.43-0.21-0.21
Northern ArizonaBSky2.802.8011.1111.11-2.17-2.17
Southern UtahBSky2.742.7414.8114.81-1.93-1.93
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.991.9971.4371.430.850.85
PortlandWCC1.961.9633.3333.33-0.65-0.65
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.901.9019.2319.23-1.17-1.17
Grand CanyonWAC1.881.8878.5778.571.071.07
Cal St. FullertonBW1.871.8729.6329.63-0.76-0.76
Washington St.P121.871.8724.1424.14-0.97-0.97
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.851.8525.9325.93-0.89-0.89
NevadaMWC1.811.8155.1755.170.190.19
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.751.7518.5218.52-1.10-1.10
SeattleWAC0.450.4542.8642.86-0.06-0.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.410.4133.3333.33-0.14-0.14
UC DavisBW0.330.3332.1432.14-0.12-0.12
DenverSum0.260.2651.6151.610.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.260.2621.4321.43-0.15-0.15
HawaiiBW0.240.2483.3383.330.160.16
North Dakota St.Sum0.240.2458.0658.060.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.230.2348.2848.28-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.230.2323.0823.08-0.12-0.12
Chicago St.WAC0.210.213.453.45-0.20-0.20
New Mexico St.WAC0.210.2167.7467.740.080.08
UC RiversideBW0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
San FranciscoWCC0.200.2048.2848.28-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.200.2078.1278.120.110.11
WyomingMWC0.200.2040.0040.00-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.180.1832.1432.14-0.07-0.07
South DakotaSum0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.180.1860.0060.000.040.04
USCP120.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
ColoradoP120.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.170.1777.4277.420.090.09
Loyola MarymountWCC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.150.1575.7675.760.080.08
WashingtonP120.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Arizona St.P120.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.150.1583.8783.870.100.10
Murray St.OVC0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
BYUWCC0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
Cal PolyBW0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
San DiegoWCC0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.110.1120.0020.00-0.07-0.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0911.1111.11-0.07-0.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
LamarSlnd0.090.0926.9226.92-0.04-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
ArizonaP120.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
Oregon St.P120.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
UCLAP120.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
StanfordP120.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0987.1087.100.060.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0958.6258.620.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
ButlerBE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
UMBCAE0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
DavidsonA100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
SyracuseACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
OklahomaB120.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
OregonP120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01