live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Portland St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:268.0
Current RPI:268
Expected SOS:329
Current SOS:329
Current Record:12-16
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-9
Current OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC RPI:151
Expected OOC SOS:279



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-16268.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Portland St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Arizona St. (125.0)P12A88-70L0%0.0
11-13Cal St. Fullerton (269.0)BWA106-100L0%0.0
11-25Loyola Marymount (153.0)WCCA78-62L0%0.0
11-27Pepperdine (245.0)WCCA85-91W100%0.0
12-3UT Rio Grande Valley (319.0)WACH87-74W100%0.0
12-10Cal St. Bakersfield (75.0)WACA81-79L0%0.0
12-16San Francisco (94.0)WCCA78-82W100%0.0
12-20Portland (233.0)WCCA75-77W100%0.0
12-29North Dakota (144.0)BSkyH99-62W100%0.0
12-31Northern Colorado (286.0)BSkyH59-73L0%0.0
1-7Sacramento St. (293.0)BSkyH83-76W100%0.0
1-14Southern Utah (341.0)BSkyA77-88W100%0.0
1-16Northern Arizona (335.0)BSkyA83-76L0%0.0
1-19Montana (221.0)BSkyH88-79W100%0.0
1-21Montana St. (253.0)BSkyH65-71L0%0.0
1-28Sacramento St. (293.0)BSkyA80-77L0%0.0
2-2Idaho (209.0)BSkyA89-72L0%0.0
2-4Eastern Washington (148.0)BSkyA130-124L0%0.0
2-9Idaho St. (340.0)BSkyH74-69W100%0.0
2-11Weber St. (185.0)BSkyH93-96L0%0.0
2-16Montana St. (253.0)BSkyA92-90L0%0.0
2-18Montana (221.0)BSkyA85-82L0%0.0
2-23Southern Utah (341.0)BSkyH93-86W100%0.0
2-25Northern Arizona (335.0)BSkyH84-72W100%0.0
3-2Northern Colorado (286.0)BSkyA87-84L0%0.0
3-4North Dakota (144.0)BSkyA82-73L0%0.0
3-7Northern Arizona (335.0)BSkyN80-67W100%0.0
3-9North Dakota (144.0)BSkyN95-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Portland St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Portland St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Portland St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Portland St.BSky26.5126.5146.5546.55-1.83-1.83
North DakotaBSky6.296.2968.0068.002.262.26
Northern ArizonaBSky6.256.2525.0025.00-3.12-3.12
Southern UtahBSky4.644.6413.7913.79-3.36-3.36
Sacramento St.BSky4.624.6237.0437.04-1.20-1.20
Northern ColoradoBSky4.474.4728.0028.00-1.97-1.97
MontanaBSky4.424.4250.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky4.414.4142.8642.86-0.63-0.63
Weber St.BSky2.942.9455.1755.170.300.30
IdahoBSky2.862.8653.5753.570.200.20
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.832.8363.3363.330.750.75
Idaho St.BSky2.792.7913.7913.79-2.02-2.02
San FranciscoWCC2.052.0563.3363.330.550.55
PepperdineWCC2.052.0527.5927.59-0.92-0.92
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC2.032.0366.6766.670.680.68
PortlandWCC2.032.0330.0030.00-0.81-0.81
Loyola MarymountWCC2.022.0246.4346.43-0.14-0.14
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.881.8825.0025.00-0.94-0.94
Cal St. FullertonBW1.871.8750.0050.000.000.00
Arizona St.P121.791.7943.7543.75-0.22-0.22
Santa ClaraWCC0.420.4250.0050.000.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.380.3840.0040.00-0.08-0.08
BYUWCC0.360.3666.6766.670.120.12
PacificWCC0.360.3631.2531.25-0.13-0.13
UC DavisBW0.300.3062.5062.500.080.08
South DakotaSum0.270.2764.5264.520.080.08
Saint Mary'sWCC0.270.2787.5087.500.200.20
Washington St.P120.260.2640.0040.00-0.05-0.05
SeattleWAC0.240.2437.0437.04-0.06-0.06
GonzagaWCC0.240.2496.9796.970.220.22
Utah ValleyWAC0.220.2242.8642.86-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.210.2122.2222.22-0.12-0.12
UNLVMWC0.200.2034.3834.38-0.06-0.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.190.1960.7160.710.040.04
DenverSum0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.180.1883.3383.330.120.12
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.180.1835.7135.71-0.05-0.05
San Jose St.MWC0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.170.1729.0329.03-0.07-0.07
North FloridaASun0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.150.1518.5218.52-0.10-0.10
ArizonaP120.150.1588.2488.240.120.12
Little RockSB0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
StanfordP120.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
USCP120.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
Wright St.Horz0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
IowaB100.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.130.1310.3410.34-0.10-0.10
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.120.1231.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
UtahP120.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1229.4129.41-0.05-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
OregonP120.110.1184.8584.850.080.08
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0936.0036.00-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0953.5753.570.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
BucknellPat0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
ButlerBE0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
OklahomaB120.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
Saint LouisA100.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Oregon St.P120.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
MississippiSEC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
SMUAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
TexasB120.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
The CitadelSC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02