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Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


Portland St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:238.5
Current RPI:191
Expected SOS:313
Current SOS:316
Current Record:4-3
Expected Record:12-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-6
Current OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC RPI:203
Expected OOC SOS:338



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-569.50.02%
20-6100.50.02%
18-8119.70.29%
17-9138.41.33%
16-10159.73.23%
15-11179.78.40%
14-12202.413.83%
13-13225.019.01%
12-14247.319.33%
11-15268.817.06%
10-16287.210.23%
9-17302.04.97%
8-18314.51.81%
7-19322.50.38%
6-20329.80.05%
5-21335.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Portland St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15USC (183.0)P12A68-76W100%0.0
11-24SIU Edwardsville (333.5)OVCH90-87W100%0.0
11-26Cal St. Northridge (282.3)BWA55-63W100%0.0
11-30Oregon (103.7)P12A81-59L0%0.0
12-3Portland (182.1)WCCA83-71L0%0.0
12-6UC Riverside (237.6)BWA88-62L0%0.0
12-13Cal St. Bakersfield (328.3)WACH65-59W100%0.0
12-18San Francisco (145.9)WCCA0-012%-13.7
1-1Southern Utah (317.9)BSkyH0-080%9.8
1-3Northern Arizona (220.1)BSkyH0-057%2.1
1-8Northern Colorado (161.7)BSkyA0-018%-10.7
1-10North Dakota (266.2)BSkyA0-046%-1.2
1-15Eastern Washington (59.0)BSkyH0-024%-8.4
1-17Idaho (223.5)BSkyH0-056%1.7
1-22Weber St. (244.6)BSkyA0-033%-5.0
1-24Idaho St. (297.9)BSkyA0-042%-2.2
1-29Montana (169.3)BSkyH0-048%-0.6
1-31Montana St. (290.8)BSkyH0-078%8.9
2-7Sacramento St. (248.3)BSkyA0-037%-4.0
2-12Idaho (223.5)BSkyA0-027%-7.2
2-14Eastern Washington (59.0)BSkyA0-07%-17.3
2-19North Dakota (266.2)BSkyH0-074%7.8
2-21Northern Colorado (161.7)BSkyH0-044%-1.8
2-28Sacramento St. (248.3)BSkyH0-066%5.0
3-5Northern Arizona (220.1)BSkyA0-028%-6.8
3-7Southern Utah (317.9)BSkyA0-053%0.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Portland St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Portland St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Portland St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Portland St.BSky28.1526.3868.9750.5010.680.26
Sacramento St.BSky0.964.8842.8642.57-0.14-0.73
Northern ArizonaBSky0.004.7640.0048.72-0.00-0.12
North DakotaBSky0.004.7525.0032.69-0.00-1.64
Southern UtahBSky0.004.7516.6726.64-0.00-2.22
Northern ColoradoBSky0.004.7433.3359.11-0.000.86
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.004.7266.6775.770.002.43
IdahoBSky0.004.6837.5048.89-0.00-0.10
Montana St.BSky0.402.9725.0027.97-0.20-1.31
MontanaBSky0.002.9325.0050.95-0.000.06
Idaho St.BSky0.002.9316.6732.41-0.00-1.03
Weber St.BSky0.002.8928.5741.26-0.00-0.51
PortlandWCC7.742.1371.4347.313.32-0.11
San FranciscoWCC0.002.1044.4448.23-0.00-0.07
UC RiversideBW7.542.0933.3342.88-2.51-0.30
Cal St. NorthridgeBW7.142.0625.0031.26-3.57-0.77
OregonP127.142.0257.1456.351.020.26
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC7.651.9912.5030.31-5.74-0.78
USCP127.141.9966.6738.382.38-0.46
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC7.591.960.0024.02-7.59-1.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.4933.3341.10-0.00-0.09
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.2857.1454.620.000.03
SeattleWAC0.400.2837.5045.72-0.10-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.2885.7161.820.000.07
Loyola MarymountWCC0.870.2728.5722.66-0.37-0.15
Cal St. FullertonBW0.360.2436.3639.31-0.10-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.000.2437.5046.90-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.2390.0065.960.000.07
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.2125.0033.31-0.00-0.07
GonzagaWCC0.000.2190.0091.020.000.17
Washington St.P120.000.2040.0028.86-0.00-0.09
ColoradoP120.000.2066.6757.220.000.03
HawaiiBW0.400.2066.6753.390.130.01
UtahP120.510.2077.7880.520.280.12
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.2071.4356.890.000.03
UCLAP120.510.2072.7357.470.230.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.1875.0067.800.000.06
BYUWCC0.000.1766.6767.890.000.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1740.0044.19-0.00-0.02
PacificWCC0.000.1742.8638.51-0.00-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.400.1771.4360.450.170.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.1733.3332.44-0.00-0.06
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.1637.5064.38-0.000.05
WashingtonP120.000.16100.0070.570.000.07
Oregon St.P120.450.1675.0050.490.220.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1437.5051.76-0.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1440.0065.07-0.000.04
WyomingMWC0.000.1477.7873.060.000.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1455.5656.150.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.1442.8644.96-0.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.360.1450.0053.970.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.1442.8635.74-0.00-0.04
South DakotaSum0.790.1420.0040.86-0.48-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.1354.5557.870.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1350.0041.450.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1340.0050.27-0.000.00
ArizonaP120.400.13100.0080.930.400.08
Murray St.OVC0.450.1150.0058.490.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1142.8655.73-0.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1155.5639.260.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.110.0011.59-0.00-0.08
Colorado St.MWC0.000.11100.0077.640.000.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.510.1120.0026.45-0.31-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.400.1111.1130.96-0.31-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1150.0033.140.00-0.04
UNLVMWC0.000.1171.4350.790.000.00
DrakeMVC0.450.1020.0020.57-0.27-0.06
San Diego St.MWC0.790.1077.7875.600.440.05
Fresno St.MWC0.400.1030.0028.54-0.16-0.04
Arizona St.P120.000.1060.0053.940.000.01
MississippiSEC0.450.1066.6751.450.150.00
StanfordP120.000.1071.4361.160.000.02
ToledoMAC0.450.1055.5655.960.050.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0822.2231.80-0.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0833.3339.81-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0844.4447.24-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0871.4367.660.000.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0733.3334.02-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0013.10-0.00-0.05
Kansas St.B120.000.0760.0038.270.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0766.6754.790.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0722.2227.10-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.0711.1129.36-0.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0737.5031.71-0.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.360.0750.0050.190.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0755.5655.850.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0733.3363.92-0.000.02
IndianaB100.000.0780.0057.560.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0755.5647.220.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0777.7864.850.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0790.0079.360.000.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0750.0074.020.000.03
SMUAmer0.000.0766.6770.530.000.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0711.1145.10-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0722.2242.30-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0720.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0720.0037.42-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.360.0766.6758.510.120.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0644.4449.79-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0644.4444.49-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0650.0056.650.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0644.4469.77-0.000.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0034.13-0.00-0.02
XavierBE0.000.0680.0071.140.000.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0460.0062.380.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0414.2944.11-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.600.0483.3363.180.400.01
IPFWSum0.600.0457.1456.130.090.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0420.0047.17-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.600.0455.5631.620.07-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.600.0460.0050.220.120.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.040.0017.65-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0487.5076.910.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0462.5065.100.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0477.7861.940.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0412.5024.45-0.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.0477.7868.030.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0444.4444.67-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.400.030.008.21-0.40-0.03
DenverSum0.000.0344.4455.06-0.000.00
High PointBSth0.400.0362.5055.430.100.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0022.93-0.00-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.450.030.007.95-0.45-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.450.0380.0069.650.270.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0337.5048.43-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0375.0070.380.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0375.0070.980.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0094.460.000.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0322.2236.43-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.360.0360.0056.480.070.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.400.0342.8639.29-0.06-0.01
ArmyPat0.360.0377.7869.100.200.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6741.850.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.450.030.0014.53-0.45-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3340.42-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.450.0350.0053.430.000.00
DrexelCAA0.360.0325.0037.29-0.18-0.01
IllinoisB100.450.0370.0066.410.180.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0085.390.000.02
MichiganB100.450.0355.5642.720.05-0.00
Penn St.B100.360.0390.9154.340.290.00
SamfordSC0.400.0333.3331.09-0.13-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0362.5078.030.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0328.5726.77-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.450.0370.0071.110.180.01
VermontAE0.000.0350.0060.040.000.01