Portland St.

Conference:	BSky
Expected RPI:	207.8
Current RPI:	194
Expected SOS:	239
Current SOS:	200
Current Record:	9-12
Expected Record:	13-15
Current Conf Record:	5-6
Expected Conf Record:	8-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	2.72%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-5
Current OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC RPI:	158
Expected OOC SOS:	176

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-12	150.0	1.05%
15-13	168.4	8.06%
14-14	186.9	20.48%
13-15	205.0	31.41%
12-16	222.3	24.26%
11-17	240.7	11.61%
10-18	258.9	2.88%
9-19	276.0	0.24%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Portland St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Denver (91.3)	SB	A	69-61	L	0%	0.0
11-15	Seattle (288.1)	ind	H	66-65	W	100%	0.0
11-25	Wyoming (55.5)	MWC	A	65-51	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Louisiana Tech (204.7)	WAC	N	66-48	W	100%	0.0
11-27	Maryland Eastern Shore (319.1)	MEAC	N	69-79	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Utah Valley (222.0)	GWC	A	93-87	L	0%	0.0
12-12	Oregon (86.8)	P12	A	79-70	L	0%	0.0
12-15	Cal St. Bakersfield (210.9)	ind	H	91-87	W	100%	0.0
12-18	Oregon St. (114.4)	P12	A	101-68	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Cal St. Fullerton (167.7)	BW	A	92-86	L	0%	0.0
12-28	Montana (101.6)	BSky	A	75-64	L	0%	0.0
12-30	Montana St. (261.8)	BSky	A	86-73	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Northern Arizona (328.5)	BSky	H	82-62	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Weber St. (84.1)	BSky	H	81-88	L	0%	0.0
1-12	Northern Colorado (251.5)	BSky	A	75-86	W	100%	0.0
1-16	Idaho St. (259.8)	BSky	H	80-68	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Eastern Washington (210.5)	BSky	A	76-78	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Montana St. (261.8)	BSky	H	65-70	L	0%	0.0
1-29	Montana (101.6)	BSky	H	67-69	L	0%	0.0
2-2	Weber St. (84.1)	BSky	A	92-79	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Northern Arizona (328.5)	BSky	A	65-76	W	100%	0.0
2-9	Idaho St. (259.8)	BSky	A	0-0		57%	2.0
2-15	Sacramento St. (305.2)	BSky	H	0-0		76%	7.6
2-18	Idaho (169.6)	WAC	A	0-0		23%	-8.1
2-23	Sacramento St. (305.2)	BSky	A	0-0		53%	0.8
2-25	Eastern Washington (210.5)	BSky	H	0-0		57%	2.1
2-28	Northern Colorado (251.5)	BSky	H	0-0		70%	5.7
3-10	Seattle (288.1)	ind	A	0-0		46%	-1.2

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Portland St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Portland St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Portland St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Portland St.	BSky	26.66	26.53	47.25	50.09	-1.47	0.05
Eastern Washington	BSky	3.43	4.68	42.86	45.79	-0.49	-0.39
Montana St.	BSky	5.51	4.68	38.89	36.90	-1.22	-1.22
Montana	BSky	5.44	4.60	66.67	71.14	1.81	1.95
Idaho St.	BSky	3.32	4.58	35.00	34.85	-1.00	-1.39
Northern Colorado	BSky	3.23	4.57	31.58	32.92	-1.19	-1.56
Northern Arizona	BSky	5.45	4.54	15.00	17.43	-3.82	-2.96
Sacramento St.	BSky	1.03	4.54	30.00	33.00	-0.41	-1.54
Weber St.	BSky	5.34	4.50	77.78	74.91	2.96	2.24
Seattle	ind	2.66	3.83	25.00	33.85	-1.33	-1.24
Idaho	WAC	0.52	2.26	47.62	50.12	-0.02	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	2.83	2.14	75.00	69.65	1.41	0.84
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	2.78	2.12	50.00	49.71	0.00	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	2.75	2.06	52.38	56.06	0.13	0.25
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	2.54	1.98	63.16	65.42	0.67	0.61
Oregon St.	P12	2.60	1.98	61.90	61.84	0.62	0.47
Louisiana Tech	WAC	2.50	1.91	45.00	45.00	-0.25	-0.19
Oregon	P12	2.49	1.91	68.18	63.31	0.91	0.51
Denver	SB	2.50	1.89	69.57	71.24	0.98	0.80
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	2.49	1.85	21.05	20.70	-1.44	-1.08
Utah St.	WAC	0.48	0.47	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.42	0.44	27.27	26.95	-0.19	-0.20
UC Davis	BW	0.11	0.37	0.00	5.37	-0.11	-0.33
North Dakota	GWC	0.29	0.36	33.33	41.31	-0.10	-0.06
Utah	P12	0.46	0.36	18.18	15.01	-0.29	-0.25
UC Irvine	BW	0.31	0.30	35.00	35.26	-0.09	-0.09
Washington St.	P12	0.16	0.29	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.22	0.27	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.28	0.26	69.57	68.90	0.11	0.10
Hawaii	WAC	0.11	0.26	57.14	53.12	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.28	0.24	31.82	33.83	-0.10	-0.08
Fresno St.	WAC	0.11	0.23	39.13	44.52	-0.02	-0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.28	0.23	66.67	60.80	0.09	0.05
Nevada	WAC	0.18	0.22	80.95	76.42	0.11	0.12
California	P12	0.27	0.22	75.00	74.61	0.14	0.11
Arkansas St.	SB	0.24	0.21	37.50	38.33	-0.06	-0.05
San Francisco	WCC	0.30	0.21	56.52	53.77	0.04	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.23	0.20	81.82	81.03	0.15	0.12
Pacific	BW	0.16	0.20	35.00	37.47	-0.05	-0.05
Stanford	P12	0.18	0.20	69.57	68.29	0.07	0.07
Washington	P12	0.18	0.20	69.57	66.54	0.07	0.06
Arizona St.	P12	0.33	0.20	30.43	31.43	-0.13	-0.07
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.22	0.19	59.09	57.76	0.04	0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.16	0.19	42.86	41.13	-0.02	-0.03
Colorado	P12	0.21	0.19	66.67	62.65	0.07	0.05
Brigham Young	WCC	0.28	0.16	75.00	76.00	0.14	0.09
Long Beach St.	BW	0.18	0.16	71.43	73.35	0.08	0.08
St. Mary's	WCC	0.22	0.16	90.91	87.74	0.18	0.12
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.22	0.16	54.17	54.75	0.02	0.02
Longwood	ind	0.00	0.15	30.00	27.84	-0.00	-0.07
Virginia	ACC	0.18	0.14	81.82	76.80	0.12	0.07
UC Riverside	BW	0.18	0.13	42.86	39.66	-0.03	-0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.13	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.16	0.13	21.05	22.46	-0.09	-0.07
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.11	0.13	33.33	38.38	-0.04	-0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.11	0.13	19.05	24.61	-0.07	-0.07
Arizona	P12	0.21	0.13	66.67	68.55	0.07	0.05
UCLA	P12	0.16	0.12	54.55	56.79	0.01	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.00	0.10	27.78	29.87	-0.00	-0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.10	41.18	42.61	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.06	0.10	76.19	75.94	0.03	0.05
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.11	0.10	25.00	28.52	-0.06	-0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.12	0.10	33.33	33.82	-0.04	-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.10	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.11	0.10	4.76	9.95	-0.10	-0.08
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.11	0.10	82.61	81.44	0.07	0.06
Air Force	MWC	0.12	0.10	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.11	0.10	26.32	28.83	-0.05	-0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.11	0.09	18.18	22.22	-0.07	-0.05
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.16	0.09	43.48	44.25	-0.02	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.11	0.09	8.70	8.99	-0.09	-0.08
Harvard	Ivy	0.07	0.07	90.48	87.91	0.06	0.06
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.07	73.91	68.43	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.12	0.07	34.78	38.42	-0.04	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.07	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.07	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.07	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	Sum	0.12	0.07	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.07	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.07	61.90	63.52	0.03	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.12	0.07	21.74	21.70	-0.07	-0.04
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.11	0.07	26.32	29.79	-0.05	-0.03
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.12	0.07	55.56	58.01	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.06	36.36	38.48	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.06	69.57	65.15	0.04	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.00	0.06	42.11	49.81	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.12	0.06	35.29	39.85	-0.04	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.06	81.82	81.49	0.03	0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.00	0.06	25.00	37.58	-0.00	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	85.71	78.05	0.04	0.04
Texas Christian	MWC	0.06	0.06	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	35.00	39.38	-0.02	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.11	0.06	38.89	43.93	-0.02	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.06	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.11	0.06	85.71	82.18	0.08	0.04
Southern California	P12	0.11	0.06	25.00	25.13	-0.05	-0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.11	0.06	69.57	65.87	0.04	0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.03	27.27	35.02	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.03	15.00	15.73	-0.04	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.00
Maine	AE	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.03	34.78	35.20	-0.02	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.03	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.03	5.26	7.30	-0.05	-0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.03	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.03	26.32	29.71	-0.03	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.03	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.03	82.61	80.42	0.04	0.02
American	Pat	0.06	0.03	65.22	63.79	0.02	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.03	24.00	24.86	-0.03	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.03	19.05	22.37	-0.04	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.03	72.73	68.28	0.03	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.06	0.03	73.91	74.91	0.03	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.03	9.52	13.19	-0.05	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.03	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.03	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.00	0.03	41.67	40.61	-0.00	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.00	0.03	36.36	39.72	-0.00	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.00	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.00	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.03	30.00	30.06	-0.02	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.03	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.03	83.33	84.76	0.03	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.03	55.00	54.48	0.01	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.03	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.03	27.78	29.58	-0.03	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.03	38.10	37.86	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.03	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.03	18.18	21.13	-0.03	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	31.82	42.13	-0.02	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.03	9.52	11.44	-0.04	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.03	4.00	5.26	-0.05	-0.03
Troy	SB	0.05	0.03	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.48	-0.02	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.03	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.03	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.03	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.00