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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Portland St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:225.0
Current RPI:225
Expected SOS:296
Current SOS:296
Current Record:13-14
Expected Record:13-14
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-4
Current OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC RPI:176
Expected OOC SOS:297



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-14225.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Portland St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15USC (207.0)P12A68-76W100%0.0
11-24SIU Edwardsville (292.0)OVCH90-87W100%0.0
11-26Cal St. Northridge (282.0)BWA55-63W100%0.0
11-30Oregon (27.0)P12A81-59L0%0.0
12-3Portland (149.0)WCCA83-71L0%0.0
12-6UC Riverside (234.0)BWA88-62L0%0.0
12-13Cal St. Bakersfield (301.0)WACH65-59W100%0.0
12-18San Francisco (181.0)WCCA77-40L0%0.0
1-1Southern Utah (307.0)BSkyH71-68W100%0.0
1-3Northern Arizona (166.0)BSkyH60-73L0%0.0
1-8Northern Colorado (245.0)BSkyA90-85L0%0.0
1-10North Dakota (310.0)BSkyA75-82W100%0.0
1-15Eastern Washington (74.0)BSkyH85-92L0%0.0
1-17Idaho (267.0)BSkyH85-73W100%0.0
1-22Weber St. (263.0)BSkyA63-69W100%0.0
1-24Idaho St. (343.0)BSkyA80-76L0%0.0
1-29Montana (144.0)BSkyH54-73L0%0.0
1-31Montana St. (325.0)BSkyH80-62W100%0.0
2-7Sacramento St. (141.0)BSkyA64-60L0%0.0
2-12Idaho (267.0)BSkyA87-76L0%0.0
2-14Eastern Washington (74.0)BSkyA66-68W100%0.0
2-19North Dakota (310.0)BSkyH80-70W100%0.0
2-21Northern Colorado (245.0)BSkyH91-75W100%0.0
2-28Sacramento St. (141.0)BSkyH60-73L0%0.0
3-5Northern Arizona (166.0)BSkyA58-51L0%0.0
3-7Southern Utah (307.0)BSkyA73-86W100%0.0
3-12Sacramento St. (141.0)BSkyN70-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Portland St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Portland St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Portland St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Portland St.BSky26.4326.4351.2251.220.640.64
Sacramento St.BSky6.576.5757.6957.691.011.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky4.764.7675.8675.862.462.46
Northern ArizonaBSky4.714.7153.3353.330.310.31
Northern ColoradoBSky4.654.6546.1546.15-0.36-0.36
Southern UtahBSky4.604.6034.6234.62-1.41-1.41
North DakotaBSky4.594.5923.0823.08-2.47-2.47
IdahoBSky4.594.5938.4638.46-1.06-1.06
MontanaBSky2.962.9658.6258.620.510.51
Montana St.BSky2.842.8421.4321.43-1.62-1.62
Idaho St.BSky2.802.8014.8114.81-1.97-1.97
Weber St.BSky2.802.8040.7440.74-0.52-0.52
PortlandWCC2.072.0748.2848.28-0.07-0.07
UC RiversideBW2.042.0439.2939.29-0.44-0.44
San FranciscoWCC2.002.0040.0040.00-0.40-0.40
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.981.9823.3323.33-1.05-1.05
OregonP121.941.9471.8871.880.850.85
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.921.9237.9337.93-0.46-0.46
USCP121.911.9138.7138.71-0.43-0.43
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.881.8840.0040.00-0.38-0.38
Utah ValleyWAC0.540.5432.1432.14-0.19-0.19
UC DavisBW0.290.2979.3179.310.170.17
UC IrvineBW0.280.2861.2961.290.060.06
SeattleWAC0.280.2848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.260.2667.7467.740.090.09
Cal St. FullertonBW0.250.2524.1424.14-0.13-0.13
GonzagaWCC0.250.2593.9493.940.220.22
Loyola MarymountWCC0.240.2423.3323.33-0.13-0.13
UtahP120.210.2174.1974.190.100.10
Saint Mary'sWCC0.210.2168.9768.970.080.08
ColoradoP120.210.2146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.210.2154.5554.550.020.02
UCLAP120.210.2160.6160.610.040.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.190.1939.2939.29-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.190.1971.8871.880.080.08
PacificWCC0.180.1832.1432.14-0.07-0.07
HawaiiBW0.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
Washington St.P120.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
New Mexico St.WAC0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.160.1651.7251.720.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.150.1540.7440.74-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
Oregon St.P120.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
WashingtonP120.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
ArizonaP120.140.1491.1891.180.120.12
Nebraska OmahaSum0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Utah St.MWC0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
UTSACUSA0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.100.1017.2417.24-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
DrakeMVC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
UNLVMWC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
StanfordP120.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
ToledoMAC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0762.9662.960.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.076.906.90-0.06-0.06
Kansas St.B120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0790.9190.910.050.05
StetsonASun0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0723.0823.08-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
SMUAmer0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0652.9452.940.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0675.8675.860.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
BelmontOVC0.040.0467.7467.740.010.01
CampbellBSth0.040.0424.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.040.0471.4371.430.020.02
IPFWSum0.040.0448.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.040.0432.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.040.0434.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0410.3410.34-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
DelawareCAA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01