Portland St.

Conference:	BSky
Expected RPI:	339.0
Current RPI:	339
Expected SOS:	318
Current SOS:	318
Current Record:	6-20
Expected Record:	6-20
Current Conf Record:	5-15
Expected Conf Record:	5-15
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-13
Current OOC Record:	1-5
Expected OOC Record:	1-5
Expected OOC RPI:	330
Expected OOC SOS:	263

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
6-20	339.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Portland St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Oregon (48.0)	P12	A	80-69	L	0%
11-21	Portland (231.0)	WCC	A	81-60	L	0%
11-25	Oklahoma St. (27.0)	B12	A	81-58	L	0%
12-1	Loyola Marymount (211.0)	WCC	A	66-56	L	0%
12-12	Oregon St. (181.0)	P12	H	74-79	L	0%
12-20	Idaho St. (337.0)	BSky	H	63-49	W	100%
12-22	Weber St. (84.0)	BSky	H	69-73	L	0%
1-3	Montana St. (317.0)	BSky	A	62-59	L	0%
1-5	Montana (66.0)	BSky	A	62-55	L	0%
1-10	Sacramento St. (283.0)	BSky	H	87-69	W	100%
1-12	Northern Arizona (255.0)	BSky	H	79-74	W	100%
1-17	Northern Colorado (257.0)	BSky	A	67-50	L	0%
1-19	North Dakota (226.0)	BSky	A	85-76	L	0%
1-24	Southern Utah (314.0)	BSky	A	76-63	L	0%
1-28	Eastern Washington (321.0)	BSky	A	76-65	L	0%
1-31	Montana (66.0)	BSky	H	68-81	L	0%
2-2	Montana St. (317.0)	BSky	H	64-70	L	0%
2-7	Northern Arizona (255.0)	BSky	A	79-72	L	0%
2-9	Sacramento St. (283.0)	BSky	A	77-71	L	0%
2-14	Southern Utah (314.0)	BSky	H	90-69	W	100%
2-18	Eastern Washington (321.0)	BSky	H	89-80	W	100%
2-23	UC Riverside (338.0)	BW	H	66-58	W	100%
2-28	North Dakota (226.0)	BSky	H	66-74	L	0%
3-2	Northern Colorado (257.0)	BSky	H	75-85	L	0%
3-7	Weber St. (84.0)	BSky	A	80-52	L	0%
3-9	Idaho St. (337.0)	BSky	A	72-71	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Portland St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Portland St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Portland St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Portland St.	BSky	26.50	26.50	17.65	17.65	-17.14	-17.14
Weber St.	BSky	5.22	5.22	78.57	78.57	2.98	2.98
Northern Colorado	BSky	5.19	5.19	33.33	33.33	-1.73	-1.73
Northern Arizona	BSky	5.16	5.16	33.33	33.33	-1.72	-1.72
North Dakota	BSky	5.16	5.16	42.86	42.86	-0.74	-0.74
Montana	BSky	5.15	5.15	77.78	77.78	2.86	2.86
Montana St.	BSky	5.15	5.15	34.62	34.62	-1.58	-1.58
Southern Utah	BSky	5.09	5.09	29.63	29.63	-2.07	-2.07
Idaho St.	BSky	5.08	5.08	14.81	14.81	-3.58	-3.58
Eastern Washington	BSky	5.03	5.03	31.03	31.03	-1.91	-1.91
Sacramento St.	BSky	5.01	5.01	44.00	44.00	-0.60	-0.60
Portland	WCC	2.15	2.15	27.59	27.59	-0.96	-0.96
Oregon	P12	2.11	2.11	75.76	75.76	1.09	1.09
Loyola Marymount	WCC	2.08	2.08	29.03	29.03	-0.87	-0.87
Oregon St.	P12	2.05	2.05	41.94	41.94	-0.33	-0.33
UC Riverside	BW	1.99	1.99	14.81	14.81	-1.40	-1.40
Oklahoma St.	B12	1.92	1.92	74.19	74.19	0.93	0.93
UC Davis	BW	0.36	0.36	45.16	45.16	-0.03	-0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.31	0.31	64.52	64.52	0.09	0.09
San Diego	WCC	0.29	0.29	43.75	43.75	-0.04	-0.04
Utah	P12	0.28	0.28	41.94	41.94	-0.05	-0.05
Washington St.	P12	0.28	0.28	40.62	40.62	-0.05	-0.05
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.26	0.26	40.00	40.00	-0.05	-0.05
Gonzaga	WCC	0.25	0.25	93.75	93.75	0.22	0.22
Pepperdine	WCC	0.23	0.23	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
San Francisco	WCC	0.22	0.22	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.22	0.22	63.33	63.33	0.06	0.06
Colorado	P12	0.21	0.21	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
San Jose St.	WAC	0.20	0.20	28.57	28.57	-0.09	-0.09
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.20	0.20	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Idaho	WAC	0.19	0.19	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Hawaii	BW	0.19	0.19	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.19	0.19	81.25	81.25	0.12	0.12
Cal Poly	BW	0.17	0.17	55.17	55.17	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	74.19	74.19	0.08	0.08
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.16	0.16	38.46	38.46	-0.04	-0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.15	0.15	78.79	78.79	0.09	0.09
Washington	P12	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.14	0.14	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
UC Irvine	BW	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.13	0.13	24.14	24.14	-0.07	-0.07
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.13	0.13	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Utah St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.13	0.13	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Texas Christian	B12	0.13	0.13	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Utah Valley	GWC	0.13	0.13	35.71	35.71	-0.04	-0.04
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.12	0.12	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Arizona	P12	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
California	P12	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Stanford	P12	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.10	0.10	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.09	0.09	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.09	0.09	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Pacific	BW	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	SC	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Denver	WAC	0.07	0.07	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Wichita St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00