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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Portland St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:282.9
Current RPI:308
Expected SOS:339
Current SOS:348
Current Record:2-3
Expected Record:11-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-8
Current OOC Record:2-3
Expected OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC RPI:268
Expected OOC SOS:324



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-7125.00.01%
18-8149.30.14%
17-9170.90.51%
16-10192.11.85%
15-11214.24.51%
14-12236.59.07%
13-13257.213.82%
12-14277.417.65%
11-15294.818.89%
10-16309.815.25%
9-17321.010.43%
8-18330.15.29%
7-19337.21.96%
6-20342.40.50%
5-21346.80.10%
4-22349.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Portland St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Arizona St. (161.2)P12A88-70L0%0.0
11-13Cal St. Fullerton (325.8)BWA106-100L0%0.0
11-25Loyola Marymount (167.9)WCCA78-62L0%0.0
11-27Pepperdine (195.4)WCCA85-91W100%0.0
12-3UT Rio Grande Valley (312.5)WACH87-74W100%0.0
12-10Cal St. Bakersfield (118.6)WACA0-012%-14.0
12-16San Francisco (160.4)WCCA0-021%-9.7
12-20Portland (141.2)WCCA0-017%-11.3
12-29North Dakota (229.5)BSkyH0-045%-1.4
12-31Northern Colorado (281.3)BSkyH0-061%3.4
1-7Sacramento St. (336.4)BSkyH0-078%9.1
1-12Northern Arizona (342.0)BSkyA0-066%4.8
1-14Southern Utah (327.0)BSkyA0-054%1.1
1-19Montana (241.5)BSkyH0-046%-1.2
1-21Montana St. (212.6)BSkyH0-044%-1.9
1-28Sacramento St. (336.4)BSkyA0-059%2.8
2-2Idaho (230.0)BSkyA0-029%-6.5
2-4Eastern Washington (201.0)BSkyA0-031%-5.9
2-9Idaho St. (282.3)BSkyH0-063%4.0
2-11Weber St. (209.7)BSkyH0-041%-2.6
2-16Montana St. (212.6)BSkyA0-025%-8.2
2-18Montana (241.5)BSkyA0-027%-7.5
2-23Southern Utah (327.0)BSkyH0-073%7.3
2-25Northern Arizona (342.0)BSkyH0-082%11.1
3-2Northern Colorado (281.3)BSkyA0-041%-2.8
3-4North Dakota (229.5)BSkyA0-026%-7.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Portland St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Portland St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Portland St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Portland St.BSky28.7326.3752.6348.271.51-0.91
Sacramento St.BSky0.004.830.0021.56-0.00-2.75
Southern UtahBSky0.004.820.0024.46-0.00-2.46
Northern ArizonaBSky0.004.7911.1119.86-0.00-2.89
North DakotaBSky0.004.7633.3354.88-0.000.46
Northern ColoradoBSky0.004.7416.6739.62-0.00-0.98
MontanaBSky0.004.7125.0047.66-0.00-0.22
Montana St.BSky0.004.6742.8655.79-0.000.54
Weber St.BSky0.712.9116.6749.44-0.48-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.002.9071.4355.210.000.30
Idaho St.BSky0.002.8912.5029.51-0.00-1.18
IdahoBSky0.002.8650.0052.450.000.14
San FranciscoWCC0.002.2385.7152.830.000.13
PepperdineWCC10.002.2250.0034.710.00-0.68
PortlandWCC0.502.2057.1449.620.07-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC10.002.190.0043.82-10.00-0.27
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.002.1350.0063.990.000.60
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC10.002.0322.2223.73-5.56-1.07
Cal St. FullertonBW10.002.0216.6731.01-6.67-0.77
Arizona St.P1210.001.9250.0035.800.00-0.55
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.4033.3332.79-0.00-0.14
PacificWCC0.710.3742.8645.98-0.10-0.03
BYUWCC0.000.3762.5067.080.000.13
San DiegoWCC0.000.3737.5031.15-0.00-0.14
South DakotaSum0.000.3050.0046.820.00-0.02
Washington St.P120.000.3042.8629.20-0.00-0.12
UC DavisBW0.000.2850.0045.660.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.2816.6738.83-0.00-0.06
GonzagaWCC0.000.27100.0092.200.000.23
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.27100.0089.590.000.21
UC RiversideBW0.000.240.0031.31-0.00-0.09
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.2157.1457.780.000.03
DenverSum0.000.2142.8645.65-0.00-0.02
UNLVMWC1.270.2062.5042.780.32-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.2050.0040.690.00-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.180.0033.71-0.00-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1775.0069.680.000.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1725.0043.29-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.1777.7870.290.000.07
ColoradoP120.000.1775.0062.450.000.04
WashingtonP120.710.1657.1452.140.100.01
USCP120.000.16100.0076.400.000.08
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1557.1459.020.000.03
North FloridaASun0.000.1512.5034.49-0.00-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.000.1420.0022.08-0.00-0.08
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1442.8658.24-0.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.1455.5649.660.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.710.1437.5050.92-0.180.00
Cal PolyBW1.270.1442.8641.13-0.18-0.02
StanfordP120.000.1366.6758.600.000.02
Little RockSB0.710.1366.6761.400.240.03
UtahP120.000.1380.0058.220.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1337.5037.96-0.00-0.03
WyomingMWC0.000.1266.6753.730.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.1162.5052.060.000.00
IowaB100.500.1144.4438.41-0.06-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.560.1133.3352.49-0.190.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1140.0054.81-0.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1171.4360.090.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.100.0038.43-0.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.1042.8640.38-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.710.1012.5033.31-0.54-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.710.1050.0045.920.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC1.250.1050.0056.890.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.710.1075.0058.720.360.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1071.4363.080.000.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1042.8644.89-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.09100.0086.650.000.07
OregonP120.000.0975.0072.800.000.04
BucknellPat0.000.0770.0070.530.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.07100.0074.830.000.04
HawaiiBW0.000.0742.8650.82-0.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.0757.1444.830.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0771.4348.030.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0744.4438.15-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0725.0040.17-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0744.4453.29-0.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0742.8650.57-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.000.0760.0062.420.200.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0750.0050.170.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0725.0038.98-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0712.5037.11-0.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.000.0733.3351.57-0.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0712.5030.17-0.00-0.03
OaklandHorz0.000.0785.7177.000.000.04
RiceCUSA0.000.0775.0070.570.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0725.0023.99-0.00-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0785.7175.250.000.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0685.7169.920.000.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.0620.0035.46-0.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0625.0023.62-0.00-0.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0687.5064.760.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0675.0047.990.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0675.0050.980.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0022.75-0.00-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.040.0020.72-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0457.1443.930.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0466.6766.650.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0433.3352.03-0.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0457.1464.540.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0442.8645.50-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0450.0057.950.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.29-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer1.250.0342.8644.90-0.18-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.500.0325.0031.76-0.25-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0375.0075.180.000.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0325.0042.78-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.500.0375.0056.270.250.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0325.0041.19-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC1.250.0377.7871.770.690.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.500.0342.8638.35-0.07-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.500.0312.5026.05-0.38-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.500.0375.0055.480.250.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0044.180.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.0342.8636.07-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0362.5067.590.000.01
BelmontOVC0.710.0357.1464.500.100.01
BryantNEC0.000.0322.2246.51-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0050.980.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6738.87-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0362.5058.130.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0344.4451.58-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0357.1453.860.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0066.090.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.710.0375.0070.350.360.01
TexasB120.000.0350.0038.730.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5061.660.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0377.7876.550.000.02
XavierBE0.000.0387.5070.880.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0371.4373.270.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0312.5030.51-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.540.000.02
DavidsonA100.560.0371.4362.990.240.01
KentuckySEC0.560.0387.5082.220.420.02
PurdueB100.560.0377.7877.640.310.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0360.0069.260.000.01
The CitadelSC0.560.0350.0030.320.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.560.0312.5023.82-0.42-0.02