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Through games of Feb 13, 2016.


Cal St. Northridge

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:268.9
Current RPI:275
Expected SOS:200
Current SOS:247
Current Record:7-16
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:4-7
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-7
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:277
Expected OOC SOS:252



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-16202.50.04%
11-17224.41.07%
10-18242.99.33%
9-19259.831.28%
8-20275.041.58%
7-21288.416.69%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Northridge.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Northern Illinois (122.0)MACA83-71L0%0.0
11-14Wright St. (155.1)HorzN72-67W100%0.0
11-15South Dakota (184.0)SumN76-72L0%0.0
11-23USC (23.1)P12A96-61L0%0.0
11-25Loyola Marymount (232.2)WCCA82-80L0%0.0
11-29UCLA (70.2)P12A77-45L0%0.0
12-5Pepperdine (106.1)WCCH55-70L0%0.0
12-7San Francisco (223.7)WCCA65-61L0%0.0
12-17Portland St. (288.6)BSkyA71-77W100%0.0
12-23San Diego (300.9)WCCA81-63L0%0.0
12-29Idaho St. (259.7)BSkyA84-79L0%0.0
1-2Morgan St. (333.5)MEACH88-74W100%0.0
1-6Long Beach St. (94.1)BWH79-94L0%0.0
1-9Cal St. Fullerton (292.3)BWA75-85W100%0.0
1-14UC Davis (270.5)BWA63-62L0%0.0
1-16UC Riverside (268.7)BWH72-75L0%0.0
1-21Cal Poly (211.7)BWH76-74W100%0.0
1-23UC Santa Barbara (117.7)BWA74-61L0%0.0
1-27UC Irvine (75.7)BWH63-73L0%0.0
2-3UC Riverside (268.7)BWA71-73W100%0.0
2-6Long Beach St. (94.1)BWA81-76L0%0.0
2-10Cal St. Fullerton (292.3)BWH75-67W100%0.0
2-13UC Irvine (75.7)BWA93-84L0%0.0
2-18Hawaii (81.1)BWH0-016%-10.8
2-20Cal Poly (211.7)BWA0-023%-8.1
2-25UC Santa Barbara (117.7)BWH0-031%-5.3
2-27Hawaii (81.1)BWA0-05%-17.5
3-5UC Davis (270.5)BWH0-060%2.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Northridge's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal St. Northridge's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal St. Northridge.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal St. NorthridgeBW26.4426.3934.6532.21-8.11-9.39
Cal St. FullertonBW4.994.5935.0032.83-1.50-1.58
UC RiversideBW5.064.5743.4839.18-0.66-0.99
Long Beach St.BW4.914.5345.4549.53-0.45-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW2.824.5242.8649.18-0.40-0.07
Cal PolyBW2.914.5133.3335.91-0.97-1.27
UC IrvineBW4.874.5068.1868.071.771.63
UC DavisBW2.964.4933.3331.32-0.99-1.68
HawaiiBW0.714.4685.7183.200.512.96
Loyola MarymountWCC2.732.2337.5039.16-0.68-0.48
San DiegoWCC2.632.1426.0924.38-1.26-1.10
San FranciscoWCC2.492.1052.1748.420.11-0.07
PepperdineWCC2.492.0758.3360.680.410.44
USCP122.412.0173.9170.211.150.81
UCLAP122.452.0052.1751.450.110.06
Portland St.BSky2.371.9230.0036.95-0.95-0.50
Idaho St.BSky2.281.8547.6247.71-0.11-0.08
South DakotaSum2.271.8540.0041.10-0.45-0.33
Wright St.Horz2.271.8558.3359.280.380.34
Northern IllinoisMAC2.261.8560.0058.610.450.32
Morgan St.MEAC2.261.8519.0526.23-1.40-0.88
PortlandWCC0.560.4538.4638.09-0.13-0.11
Saint Mary'sWCC0.500.4582.6181.730.330.28
PacificWCC0.500.3822.7324.73-0.27-0.19
Santa ClaraWCC0.450.3732.0031.18-0.16-0.14
BYUWCC0.360.3269.2371.010.140.13
Sacramento St.BSky0.340.2938.1043.56-0.08-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.360.2876.0076.260.180.15
Oregon St.P120.280.2860.8757.820.060.04
WashingtonP120.330.2560.0059.040.070.04
OregonP120.270.2476.0074.790.140.12
IdahoBSky0.200.2358.3356.810.030.03
SeattleWAC0.200.2045.4544.05-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.220.1954.1755.730.020.02
DenverSum0.220.1850.0048.570.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.280.1834.7831.61-0.09-0.07
Arizona St.P120.190.1856.0053.620.020.01
ArizonaP120.230.1880.0078.720.140.10
NevadaMWC0.150.1759.0956.770.030.02
Montana St.BSky0.100.1645.8345.02-0.01-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.150.1613.6414.63-0.11-0.12
MontanaBSky0.190.1661.9062.900.050.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.140.1656.5256.100.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.180.1658.3358.450.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.180.1662.5061.440.050.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.190.1626.0925.94-0.09-0.08
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.230.1668.1868.210.080.06
AkronMAC0.150.1379.1779.050.090.08
Fresno St.MWC0.140.1360.8760.120.030.03
Weber St.BSky0.200.1368.1870.090.070.05
IPFWSum0.130.1372.0069.300.060.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.180.1313.6413.35-0.13-0.09
OhioMAC0.190.1365.2264.670.060.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.130.1360.0059.940.030.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1375.0075.150.070.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.180.1213.0414.58-0.13-0.09
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.1245.8351.18-0.010.00
Oklahoma St.B120.180.1248.0043.71-0.01-0.02
CaliforniaP120.050.1268.0065.640.020.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.180.1266.6768.770.060.05
Ball St.MAC0.040.1062.5059.920.010.02
HowardMEAC0.050.1034.7836.55-0.02-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.1031.8234.35-0.04-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1034.7834.89-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.100.1042.8646.51-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.109.0911.96-0.04-0.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.1018.1823.04-0.06-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.130.0952.1751.940.010.00
San Diego St.MWC0.140.0970.8370.070.060.04
VirginiaACC0.140.0980.0077.220.080.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.0958.3360.350.020.02
LamarSlnd0.140.0930.0029.25-0.05-0.04
RiceCUSA0.130.0930.4332.18-0.05-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.140.0947.6249.23-0.01-0.00
UtahP120.050.0970.8368.550.020.03
KansasB120.140.0983.3381.420.090.06
MonmouthMAAC0.140.0980.7781.920.080.06
Air ForceMWC0.050.0741.6737.79-0.01-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0723.0825.64-0.00-0.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0737.5034.54-0.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0738.4640.70-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0745.4545.84-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0759.0958.530.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0742.8643.95-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0719.2321.27-0.00-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0717.3920.09-0.00-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0757.6958.590.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0783.3380.440.000.04
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0772.0072.950.020.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0772.7371.580.020.03
Texas TechB120.000.0762.5058.360.000.01
ToledoMAC0.100.0762.5063.370.030.02
UMBCAE0.050.0723.0825.88-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.050.0712.5012.74-0.04-0.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.0613.6414.93-0.07-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0647.8343.64-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.100.0633.3331.74-0.03-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0659.0961.340.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0658.3358.480.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0628.0031.38-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.050.0652.0054.840.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.090.0650.0051.470.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.0620.0022.33-0.06-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0625.0024.93-0.02-0.03
DetroitHorz0.090.0647.8346.26-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.090.0676.0073.090.050.03
Green BayHorz0.090.0654.1756.890.010.01
IUPUISum0.040.0638.4638.52-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.040.0630.4332.19-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.040.0666.6766.290.010.02
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0644.0043.30-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.090.0670.8368.070.040.02
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0679.1779.630.050.04
Western IllinoisSum0.040.0630.0030.99-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0629.1730.14-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0657.1460.240.010.01
KentuckySEC0.090.0676.0074.450.050.03
XavierBE0.090.0688.0084.240.070.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0635.0034.88-0.03-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0629.1726.62-0.04-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0672.0072.970.040.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0647.6248.51-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0647.6250.56-0.000.00
UCFAmer0.090.0647.8343.65-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0672.0066.650.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0650.0046.650.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0354.1754.540.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.177.54-0.05-0.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0341.6743.11-0.01-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0383.3382.060.030.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0362.5059.800.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0336.0032.69-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0361.5455.940.010.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0330.4334.38-0.02-0.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0334.7834.91-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0373.0871.580.020.01
DrakeMVC0.040.0320.0022.69-0.03-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0312.5015.98-0.03-0.02
DuquesneA100.040.0360.8756.210.010.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0323.8124.32-0.03-0.02
High PointBSth0.050.0359.0960.710.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.040.0323.0823.73-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0345.8343.81-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0347.8345.05-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0332.0033.77-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0328.5735.02-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0356.0059.610.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0338.4641.33-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0322.7322.58-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0340.9141.22-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0350.0051.120.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.040.0312.5014.81-0.03-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0364.0060.170.010.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0362.5063.810.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.040.0326.0926.99-0.02-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0347.8351.11-0.000.00
George MasonA100.040.0336.0035.97-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.040.0352.3851.410.000.00
IllinoisB100.040.0344.0043.45-0.01-0.00
Kansas St.B120.040.0356.0054.680.010.00
MinnesotaB100.040.0325.0027.21-0.02-0.01
UMKCWAC0.040.0331.8233.29-0.02-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0320.0020.81-0.03-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0321.0529.38-0.03-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0360.0060.920.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0383.3378.350.030.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0340.0039.15-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0370.8373.510.020.01
YaleIvy0.050.0376.1976.290.020.02