live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Cal St. Northridge

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:253.0
Current RPI:253
Expected SOS:292
Current SOS:292
Current Record:15-18
Expected Record:15-18
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-11
Current OOC Record:6-8
Expected OOC Record:6-8
Expected OOC RPI:260
Expected OOC SOS:323



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-18253.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Northridge.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12USC (176.0)P12A95-79L0%0.0
11-16Fresno St. (117.0)MWCA80-64L0%0.0
11-21Montana St. (275.0)BSkyN73-74W100%0.0
11-22Austin Peay (305.0)OVCN80-77W100%0.0
11-23Central Michigan (294.0)MACA90-76L0%0.0
11-26Montana St. (275.0)BSkyA77-62L0%0.0
12-3Southern Utah (346.0)BSkyH84-57W100%0.0
12-5Seattle (267.0)WACH53-58L0%0.0
12-20Texas A&M Corpus Chris (249.0)SlndA66-67W100%0.0
12-22Idaho (238.0)WACH79-69W100%0.0
12-27Morgan St. (225.0)MEACH86-80W100%0.0
12-30Stephen F. Austin (52.0)SlndA74-67L0%0.0
1-2South Dakota (255.0)SumA76-75L0%0.0
1-9UC Davis (326.0)BWH89-77W100%0.0
1-11Hawaii (160.0)BWH79-78W100%0.0
1-16Cal Poly (208.0)BWA62-52L0%0.0
1-18UC Santa Barbara (107.0)BWH69-79L0%0.0
1-23UC Irvine (111.0)BWA72-66L0%0.0
1-25Long Beach St. (166.0)BWA76-62L0%0.0
1-30UC Riverside (319.0)BWH93-89W100%0.0
2-1Hawaii (160.0)BWA77-63L0%0.0
2-6UC Davis (326.0)BWA90-86L0%0.0
2-8Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWH92-83W100%0.0
2-13Cal Poly (208.0)BWH55-62L0%0.0
2-15UC Santa Barbara (107.0)BWA78-80W100%0.0
2-18Idaho (238.0)WACA96-88L0%0.0
2-22UC Irvine (111.0)BWH81-75W100%0.0
2-27Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWA82-81L0%0.0
3-1UC Riverside (319.0)BWA106-105L0%0.0
3-6Long Beach St. (166.0)BWH91-83W100%0.0
3-13Hawaii (160.0)BWN84-87W100%0.0
3-14Long Beach St. (166.0)BWN77-82W100%0.0
3-15Cal Poly (208.0)BWN59-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Northridge's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal St. Northridge's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal St. Northridge.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal St. NorthridgeBW26.6626.6647.2947.29-1.45-1.45
Cal PolyBW5.495.4929.6329.63-2.24-2.24
Long Beach St.BW5.445.4444.4444.44-0.60-0.60
HawaiiBW5.365.3665.3865.381.651.65
Cal St. FullertonBW4.114.1134.4834.48-1.28-1.28
UC IrvineBW4.084.0866.6766.671.361.36
UC RiversideBW4.054.0525.9325.93-1.95-1.95
UC Santa BarbaraBW3.993.9969.2369.231.541.54
UC DavisBW3.973.9722.2222.22-2.20-2.20
Montana St.BSky3.243.2440.7440.74-0.60-0.60
IdahoWAC3.143.1445.1645.16-0.30-0.30
SeattleWAC1.861.8637.0437.04-0.48-0.48
Southern UtahBSky1.671.673.703.70-1.55-1.55
USCP121.641.6430.0030.00-0.66-0.66
Fresno St.MWC1.641.6446.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Central MichiganMAC1.621.6225.0025.00-0.81-0.81
Austin PeayOVC1.591.5937.0437.04-0.41-0.41
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.571.5755.5655.560.170.17
Morgan St.MEAC1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.541.5492.8692.861.321.32
South DakotaSum1.521.5230.7730.77-0.58-0.58
Sacramento St.BSky0.360.3642.8642.86-0.05-0.05
MontanaBSky0.330.3353.5753.570.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.300.3073.5373.530.140.14
Northern ArizonaBSky0.290.2945.1645.16-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.280.2844.8344.83-0.03-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.260.2651.7251.720.010.01
NevadaMWC0.250.2546.8846.88-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.230.2348.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.220.2262.0762.070.050.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.210.2155.1755.170.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.210.2135.7135.71-0.06-0.06
Idaho St.BSky0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Loyola MarymountWCC0.200.2038.7138.71-0.05-0.05
CaliforniaP120.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
Boise St.MWC0.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
OregonP120.200.2071.8871.880.090.09
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.190.1934.4834.48-0.06-0.06
Utah St.MWC0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
Kansas St.B120.180.1862.5062.500.040.04
UNLVMWC0.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
PortlandWCC0.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.180.1863.6463.640.050.05
ArizonaP120.180.1888.2488.240.130.13
WashingtonP120.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.170.1725.8125.81-0.08-0.08
Nebraska OmahaSum0.160.1648.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.160.1660.7160.710.030.03
WyomingMWC0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.160.1625.9325.93-0.08-0.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
MissouriSEC0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
San Jose St.MWC0.150.1517.2417.24-0.10-0.10
PacificWCC0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.150.1546.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
New OrleansSlnd0.130.1336.3636.36-0.04-0.04
DenverSum0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1387.1087.100.100.10
ColoradoP120.130.1367.6567.650.040.04
Oregon St.P120.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
UtahP120.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.1124.0024.00-0.06-0.06
Oral RobertsSlnd0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.110.1148.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
PittsburghACC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
IPFWSum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0814.8114.81-0.06-0.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0846.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
CreightonBE0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
DelawareCAA0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
MichiganB100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Arizona St.P120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Washington St.P120.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0678.5778.570.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
FurmanSC0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
UICHorz0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
OhioMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
La SalleA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
XavierBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01