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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Cal St. Northridge

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:271.1
Current RPI:320
Expected SOS:306
Current SOS:278
Current Record:0-2
Expected Record:11-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-7
Current OOC Record:0-2
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:285
Expected OOC SOS:336



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-7101.00.01%
19-8113.90.08%
18-9131.90.14%
17-10154.70.53%
16-11177.91.85%
15-12195.94.00%
14-13218.57.89%
13-14238.111.99%
12-15257.815.35%
11-16276.117.16%
10-17292.415.28%
9-18307.112.07%
8-19318.97.63%
7-20329.23.58%
6-21335.81.51%
5-22342.20.73%
4-23345.00.15%
3-24348.30.03%
2-25347.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Northridge.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Fresno St. (87.8)MWCA89-73L0%0.0
11-18George Mason (191.3)A10A78-73L0%0.0
11-21Southeast Missouri St. (266.3)OVCN0-054%1.2
11-28California (169.6)P12A0-019%-10.5
12-3Montana (169.4)BSkyA0-025%-8.3
12-6Idaho St. (322.1)BSkyA0-059%2.7
12-9Loyola Marymount (246.0)WCCH0-059%2.8
12-17Eastern Washington (169.9)BSkyA0-030%-6.4
12-19Sacramento St. (264.8)BSkyA0-048%-0.8
12-23Idaho St. (322.1)BSkyH0-077%8.7
12-30Morgan St. (319.1)MEACH0-085%12.3
1-6Hawaii (214.5)BWH0-051%0.3
1-10Long Beach St. (152.8)BWA0-022%-9.1
1-13UC Irvine (114.9)BWH0-036%-4.4
1-17UC Riverside (276.4)BWA0-045%-1.4
1-20Cal Poly (242.5)BWH0-059%2.7
1-25UC Davis (154.8)BWA0-024%-8.6
1-27Long Beach St. (152.8)BWH0-040%-3.1
2-1UC Davis (154.8)BWH0-041%-2.6
2-3UC Santa Barbara (198.5)BWA0-029%-6.8
2-7UC Irvine (114.9)BWA0-019%-10.4
2-10Hawaii (214.5)BWA0-032%-5.7
2-14UC Riverside (276.4)BWH0-065%4.6
2-17Cal St. Fullerton (247.8)BWA0-040%-3.2
2-22Cal Poly (242.5)BWA0-039%-3.3
2-24UC Santa Barbara (198.5)BWH0-047%-0.8
2-28Cal St. Fullerton (247.8)BWH0-059%2.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Northridge's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal St. Northridge's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal St. Northridge.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal St. NorthridgeBW34.3826.540.0042.99-34.38-3.72
UC RiversideBW0.004.7833.3330.850.00-1.83
Cal PolyBW0.004.7433.3336.960.00-1.24
Cal St. FullertonBW0.004.730.0033.730.00-1.54
UC IrvineBW0.004.7233.3351.880.000.18
Long Beach St.BW0.004.7250.0049.700.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.004.7166.6756.600.000.62
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.004.7133.3349.270.00-0.07
HawaiiBW0.004.67100.0053.020.000.28
Idaho St.BSky0.003.840.0027.840.00-1.70
Sacramento St.BSky0.002.260.0033.240.00-0.76
MontanaBSky0.002.1550.0059.560.000.41
CaliforniaP120.002.0766.6738.710.00-0.47
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.002.0233.3350.870.000.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.002.0050.0034.510.00-0.62
Fresno St.MWC25.001.990.0058.58-25.000.34
George MasonA1025.001.8966.6747.178.33-0.11
Morgan St.MEAC0.001.8833.3335.910.00-0.53
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.001.850.0036.150.00-0.51
Portland St.BSky0.000.47100.0048.130.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.4433.3338.880.00-0.10
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.4350.0060.430.000.09
North DakotaBSky0.000.3866.6746.830.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.3733.3327.100.00-0.17
PepperdineWCC0.000.340.0031.910.00-0.12
Montana St.BSky0.000.3433.3350.350.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.3466.6756.400.000.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.300.0024.440.00-0.15
Weber St.BSky0.000.3066.6766.020.000.10
IdahoBSky0.000.3050.0060.380.000.06
NevadaMWC0.000.27100.0078.910.000.16
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.27100.0088.360.000.21
PacificWCC0.000.270.0033.520.00-0.09
StanfordP120.000.2775.0049.860.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.000.2350.0046.810.00-0.01
USCP120.000.21100.0073.190.000.10
Washington St.P120.000.20100.0041.780.00-0.03
SeattleWAC0.000.2033.3350.150.000.00
Arizona St.P120.000.20100.0062.760.000.05
PortlandWCC0.000.180.0029.710.00-0.07
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1766.6742.170.00-0.03
UCLAP120.000.16100.0064.910.000.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.140.0033.850.00-0.05
UtahP120.000.14100.0067.160.000.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.140.0042.340.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.1366.6767.320.000.05
San DiegoWCC0.000.13100.0052.950.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.13100.0044.740.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.130.0049.250.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.1366.6742.260.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1350.0062.630.000.03
ArizonaP120.000.13100.0083.700.000.09
Utah St.MWC0.000.1350.0050.190.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.110.0046.080.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.110.0023.910.00-0.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.110.0035.450.00-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.10100.0071.560.000.04
PittsburghACC0.000.1033.3334.560.00-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.100.0021.010.00-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.10100.0075.130.000.05
West VirginiaB120.000.1066.6771.200.000.04
Boise St.MWC0.000.10100.0066.490.000.03
UNLVMWC0.000.10100.0064.720.000.03
WyomingMWC0.000.10100.0057.360.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.10100.0062.930.000.03
George WashingtonA100.000.1066.6745.880.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.08100.0053.240.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.07100.0074.500.000.04
TroySB0.000.0733.3346.410.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0766.6768.790.000.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.070.0051.010.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.07100.0076.260.000.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.070.0022.840.00-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.070.0021.590.00-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0018.400.00-0.04
LamarSlnd0.000.07100.0065.580.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.070.0035.760.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0733.3353.520.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.070.0025.140.00-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.07100.0071.010.000.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.070.0027.250.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.070.0029.880.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0733.3341.010.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0750.0052.380.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.07100.0053.280.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.07100.0051.900.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0750.0065.140.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.07100.0086.180.000.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.070.0029.630.00-0.03
MichiganB100.000.07100.0061.710.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0750.0077.820.000.04
MissouriSEC0.000.0766.6757.890.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0733.3336.610.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0750.0066.530.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0750.0050.570.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0733.3329.980.00-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0725.0050.070.000.00
ValparaisoMVC0.000.07100.0059.760.000.01
BinghamtonAE3.120.0725.0038.08-1.56-0.02
OregonP120.000.06100.0076.200.000.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.06100.0063.590.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.06100.0060.400.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0666.6753.390.000.00
DenverSum0.000.060.0038.100.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0650.0069.320.000.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0666.6755.210.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0666.6761.500.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0650.0035.330.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0650.0042.160.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.060.0030.280.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0666.6759.540.000.01
VCUA100.000.0666.6766.590.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0048.070.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.03100.0055.280.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0028.770.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0325.0047.800.00-0.00
NavyPat0.000.0350.0052.870.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0042.850.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0366.6748.280.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0034.040.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6728.760.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0350.0066.710.000.01
ArkansasSEC6.250.03100.0071.186.250.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0375.0071.560.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0375.0048.770.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0042.670.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0068.280.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0023.170.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0023.260.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0366.6767.630.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.03100.0059.250.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0046.410.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0039.640.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.030.0026.150.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0035.610.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.03100.0052.860.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.000.03100.0082.290.000.02
WoffordSC0.000.030.0039.740.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6750.670.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.03100.0070.080.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6762.150.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0047.670.00-0.00
FordhamA100.000.0333.3336.170.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.03100.0064.470.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.030.0031.810.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0375.0051.210.000.00
LafayettePat3.120.030.0021.97-3.12-0.02
LouisvilleACC3.120.03100.0066.993.120.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0350.0073.230.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0350.0054.450.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0333.3335.210.00-0.01