Cal St. Northridge

Conference:	BW
Expected RPI:	309.6
Current RPI:	302
Expected SOS:	292
Current SOS:	275
Current Record:	4-15
Expected Record:	6-20
Current Conf Record:	2-8
Expected Conf Record:	4-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.07%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-9
Current OOC Record:	2-7
Expected OOC Record:	2-8
Expected OOC RPI:	294
Expected OOC SOS:	292

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-16	262.7	0.09%
9-17	276.6	1.16%
8-18	288.9	6.01%
7-19	298.9	19.24%
6-20	308.3	32.73%
5-21	317.6	30.50%
4-22	326.2	10.26%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Northridge.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Southern California (232.8)	P12	A	66-59	L	0%	0.0
11-14	Hawaii (184.5)	WAC	A	86-67	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Boise St. (176.5)	MWC	A	103-61	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Drake (135.2)	MVC	A	73-49	L	0%	0.0
11-30	Cal St. Bakersfield (210.9)	ind	H	67-74	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Santa Clara (271.9)	WCC	A	71-58	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Pepperdine (250.7)	WCC	A	70-73	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Washington (69.1)	P12	A	74-51	L	0%	0.0
12-29	UC Irvine (260.2)	BW	H	62-71	L	0%	0.0
1-2	UC Riverside (257.6)	BW	A	52-63	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Long Beach St. (39.1)	BW	H	68-81	L	0%	0.0
1-12	Pacific (265.6)	BW	H	59-79	L	0%	0.0
1-14	UC Davis (342.2)	BW	H	84-80	W	100%	0.0
1-19	UC Santa Barbara (147.3)	BW	A	69-61	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Cal Poly (192.6)	BW	A	100-54	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Cal St. Fullerton (167.7)	BW	H	68-70	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Cal St. Bakersfield (210.9)	ind	A	68-76	W	100%	0.0
2-2	UC Santa Barbara (147.3)	BW	H	70-85	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Long Beach St. (39.1)	BW	A	75-67	L	0%	0.0
2-9	UC Davis (342.2)	BW	A	0-0		49%	-0.3
2-11	Pacific (265.6)	BW	A	0-0		19%	-9.5
2-15	Cal Poly (192.6)	BW	H	0-0		17%	-10.6
2-18	Fresno St. (183.3)	WAC	H	0-0		22%	-8.6
2-22	UC Riverside (257.6)	BW	H	0-0		50%	-0.1
2-25	UC Irvine (260.2)	BW	A	0-0		20%	-9.4
2-29	Cal St. Fullerton (167.7)	BW	A	0-0		8%	-15.2

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Northridge's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Cal St. Northridge's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Cal St. Northridge.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Cal St. Northridge	BW	26.57	26.53	25.81	26.41	-12.86	-12.52
Pacific	BW	3.77	5.10	31.58	33.24	-1.39	-1.71
Cal Poly	BW	3.70	5.04	47.62	54.18	-0.18	0.42
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	3.65	4.97	63.16	64.36	0.96	1.43
UC Santa Barbara	BW	5.96	4.88	50.00	54.36	0.00	0.43
UC Davis	BW	3.41	4.87	0.00	3.88	-3.41	-4.49
Long Beach St.	BW	5.91	4.86	68.42	71.30	2.18	2.07
UC Riverside	BW	3.41	4.86	45.00	40.77	-0.34	-0.90
UC Irvine	BW	3.35	4.82	31.58	30.87	-1.23	-1.85
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	5.71	4.30	47.62	47.70	-0.27	-0.20
Hawaii	WAC	2.89	2.23	55.00	51.38	0.29	0.06
Fresno St.	WAC	0.31	2.20	39.13	43.35	-0.07	-0.29
Santa Clara	WCC	2.90	2.14	25.00	23.47	-1.45	-1.14
Southern California	P12	2.81	2.12	21.74	22.64	-1.59	-1.16
Pepperdine	WCC	2.87	2.10	33.33	35.13	-0.96	-0.62
Boise St.	MWC	2.81	2.09	40.00	38.95	-0.56	-0.46
Washington	P12	2.83	2.06	68.18	65.38	1.03	0.63
Drake	MVC	2.69	1.96	50.00	48.31	0.00	-0.07
San Jose St.	WAC	0.61	0.58	27.27	26.95	-0.28	-0.27
San Diego St.	MWC	0.51	0.38	85.71	78.05	0.37	0.21
Nevada	WAC	0.25	0.38	80.95	76.42	0.15	0.20
Idaho	WAC	0.43	0.37	47.62	51.08	-0.02	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.40	0.36	33.33	33.82	-0.13	-0.12
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.50	0.35	82.61	81.44	0.33	0.22
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.29	0.31	69.57	68.90	0.11	0.12
UCLA	P12	0.30	0.30	54.55	56.79	0.03	0.04
Portland	WCC	0.45	0.29	21.74	21.70	-0.26	-0.16
Utah St.	WAC	0.13	0.28	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.30	0.27	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.24	0.26	69.57	68.29	0.09	0.10
Montana St.	BSky	0.24	0.25	45.00	41.76	-0.02	-0.04
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.19	0.24	40.91	44.03	-0.03	-0.03
California	P12	0.32	0.24	75.00	74.61	0.16	0.12
Seattle	ind	0.12	0.24	23.53	33.28	-0.07	-0.08
Brigham Young	WCC	0.27	0.22	75.00	76.00	0.13	0.11
San Francisco	WCC	0.25	0.21	56.52	53.77	0.03	0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.24	0.21	90.91	87.74	0.20	0.16
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.24	0.20	30.00	33.20	-0.09	-0.07
Southern Utah	Sum	0.13	0.20	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.24	0.20	18.18	15.01	-0.15	-0.14
Arizona St.	P12	0.17	0.19	30.43	31.43	-0.07	-0.07
Gonzaga	WCC	0.24	0.18	81.82	81.49	0.16	0.11
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.17	0.17	13.64	16.14	-0.13	-0.12
Colorado	P12	0.23	0.17	66.67	62.65	0.08	0.04
Oregon St.	P12	0.23	0.17	63.64	63.16	0.06	0.04
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.18	0.14	59.09	57.76	0.03	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.11	0.14	33.33	38.38	-0.04	-0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.18	0.14	42.86	45.80	-0.03	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.11	0.14	19.05	24.61	-0.07	-0.07
Wyoming	MWC	0.13	0.14	76.19	70.73	0.07	0.06
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.19	0.14	25.00	28.52	-0.09	-0.06
Wichita St.	MVC	0.12	0.14	82.61	80.42	0.08	0.08
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.12	0.14	57.14	60.75	0.02	0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.18	0.14	81.82	81.03	0.11	0.08
Creighton	MVC	0.11	0.13	87.50	85.41	0.09	0.10
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.13	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.11	0.13	69.57	64.53	0.04	0.04
Arizona	P12	0.11	0.13	66.67	68.55	0.04	0.05
Central Michigan	MAC	0.13	0.11	28.57	34.20	-0.05	-0.03
Idaho St.	BSky	0.06	0.11	33.33	33.88	-0.02	-0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.13	0.11	59.09	57.28	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.13	0.10	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.19	0.10	56.52	48.81	0.02	-0.00
Montana	BSky	0.13	0.10	70.00	73.28	0.05	0.05
Xavier	A10	0.19	0.10	65.22	63.74	0.06	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.12	0.10	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.18	0.10	56.52	54.22	0.02	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.18	0.10	78.26	78.39	0.10	0.06
Texas Christian	MWC	0.12	0.10	57.14	49.54	0.02	-0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.10	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.11	0.10	25.00	37.58	-0.06	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.07	0.07	54.17	54.75	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	25.00	23.75	-0.03	-0.04
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.07	0.07	26.32	29.71	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.07	0.07	85.71	82.18	0.05	0.05
Texas Tech	B12	0.11	0.07	31.82	25.98	-0.04	-0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	80.00	76.84	0.04	0.04
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.07	40.91	38.38	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.06	0.07	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.07	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.13	0.07	72.73	68.28	0.06	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.13	0.07	78.26	72.66	0.07	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.13	0.07	86.96	83.16	0.09	0.05
Pittsburgh	BE	0.13	0.07	60.87	58.16	0.03	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.07	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.07	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.12	0.07	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.07	24.00	24.86	-0.03	-0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.06	0.07	8.33	10.86	-0.05	-0.05
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.07	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.07	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.07	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.11	0.07	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.00	0.07	30.00	31.54	-0.00	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.07	62.50	61.50	0.03	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.07	34.78	32.06	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.04	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.04	82.61	84.57	0.04	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.03	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Denver	SB	0.06	0.03	70.83	72.23	0.03	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.03	5.26	7.30	-0.06	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	10.00	14.93	-0.05	-0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.03	27.78	29.87	-0.03	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.03	73.91	68.43	0.03	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.03	63.64	56.71	0.02	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.04	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.03	34.78	34.61	-0.02	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.06	0.03	36.36	39.72	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.00	0.03	68.00	69.07	0.00	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.00	0.03	61.90	63.52	0.00	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.03	73.91	75.49	0.03	0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.00	0.03	38.10	37.86	-0.00	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.06	0.03	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.03	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.03	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01