live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Jan 25, 2015.


Cal St. Northridge

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:272.4
Current RPI:266
Expected SOS:143
Current SOS:139
Current Record:5-15
Expected Record:8-22
Current Conf Record:2-4
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-7
Current OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC RPI:287
Expected OOC SOS:143



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17196.50.23%
12-18215.41.11%
11-19232.15.37%
10-20248.514.64%
9-21264.925.64%
8-22279.927.62%
7-23293.517.62%
6-24304.26.74%
5-25312.91.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Northridge.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14San Diego St. (26.8)MWCA79-58L0%0.0
11-16Arizona (6.0)P12A86-68L0%0.0
11-19Montana St. (320.8)BSkyH72-65W100%0.0
11-22Samford (313.2)SCN79-72W100%0.0
11-23Arkansas Little Rock (286.1)SBA94-88L0%0.0
11-26Portland St. (240.1)BSkyH55-63L0%0.0
11-29Seattle (273.1)WACA70-58L0%0.0
12-2South Dakota (218.8)SumH65-68L0%0.0
12-4Pepperdine (151.1)WCCA66-56L0%0.0
12-17Oregon (79.2)P12A79-56L0%0.0
12-20Texas A&M Corpus Chris (262.8)SlndH68-75L0%0.0
12-23Louisville (15.2)ACCA80-55L0%0.0
12-29Stephen F. Austin (50.9)SlndH57-61L0%0.0
1-2Morgan St. (325.8)MEACH78-62W100%0.0
1-7UC Davis (123.6)BWA71-61L0%0.0
1-10Hawaii (189.8)BWA83-68L0%0.0
1-15UC Santa Barbara (107.3)BWA63-74W100%0.0
1-17Cal Poly (159.4)BWH55-48W100%0.0
1-22UC Irvine (115.6)BWH49-80L0%0.0
1-24Long Beach St. (80.5)BWH58-64L0%0.0
1-29Hawaii (189.8)BWH0-040%-2.8
1-31UC Riverside (262.6)BWA0-036%-4.0
2-5Cal St. Fullerton (287.3)BWA0-041%-2.4
2-7UC Davis (123.6)BWH0-035%-4.2
2-12Cal Poly (159.4)BWA0-018%-9.9
2-14UC Santa Barbara (107.3)BWH0-025%-7.5
2-21UC Irvine (115.6)BWA0-011%-13.7
2-26Cal St. Fullerton (287.3)BWH0-065%4.4
2-28UC Riverside (262.6)BWH0-060%2.7
3-5Long Beach St. (80.5)BWA0-011%-13.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Northridge's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal St. Northridge's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal St. Northridge.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal St. NorthridgeBW26.3926.3523.3326.52-14.07-12.37
Cal St. FullertonBW0.524.2633.3330.55-0.17-1.66
Long Beach St.BW3.014.2538.8948.84-0.67-0.10
UC RiversideBW0.584.2538.8935.39-0.13-1.24
UC IrvineBW2.824.2450.0054.520.000.38
UC Santa BarbaraBW2.784.2250.0055.720.000.48
UC DavisBW2.714.1973.3365.281.261.28
HawaiiBW2.734.1761.1155.770.610.48
Cal PolyBW2.714.1553.3351.170.180.10
OregonP122.791.8766.6758.460.930.32
SeattleWAC2.651.8543.7547.58-0.33-0.09
ArizonaP122.711.8189.4786.772.141.33
San Diego St.MWC2.631.8172.2275.011.170.90
Morgan St.MEAC2.571.7921.0528.17-1.49-0.78
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.501.7846.6741.23-0.17-0.31
Portland St.BSky2.571.7846.6745.36-0.17-0.17
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.571.7880.0083.911.541.21
Montana St.BSky2.561.7317.6520.72-1.66-1.01
PepperdineWCC2.501.7255.5654.620.280.16
LouisvilleACC2.571.7283.3377.091.710.93
South DakotaSum2.571.7042.1145.89-0.41-0.14
Arkansas Little RockSB2.501.6729.4133.32-1.03-0.56
SamfordSC2.501.6738.1037.35-0.60-0.42
Sacramento St.BSky0.150.3064.7161.600.040.07
UCLAP120.200.2855.0052.160.020.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.270.2726.3236.35-0.13-0.07
NevadaMWC0.140.2325.0026.11-0.07-0.11
BYUWCC0.330.2365.0067.600.100.08
San FranciscoWCC0.290.2140.0041.97-0.06-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.280.2178.9574.020.160.10
Utah ValleyWAC0.350.2135.2938.26-0.10-0.05
Fresno St.MWC0.280.2144.4437.95-0.03-0.05
San Jose St.MWC0.220.210.002.06-0.22-0.20
Washington St.P120.220.2047.3738.18-0.01-0.05
WashingtonP120.270.2073.6865.200.130.06
IdahoBSky0.160.1837.5043.69-0.04-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.230.1843.7552.35-0.030.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.140.1847.3741.08-0.01-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.1838.4633.68-0.00-0.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.140.1825.0025.42-0.07-0.09
USCP120.140.1747.3739.98-0.01-0.03
Oregon St.P120.200.1772.2262.200.090.04
UtahP120.130.1783.3383.660.090.11
PittsburghACC0.250.1663.1654.110.070.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.150.1570.5973.720.060.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.1547.3750.46-0.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.210.1595.0094.590.190.13
MontanaBSky0.210.1550.0053.220.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.1537.5032.89-0.02-0.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.140.1568.7575.250.050.07
San DiegoWCC0.210.1545.0045.95-0.02-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.210.1561.1159.760.050.03
CaliforniaP120.140.1555.0045.760.01-0.01
XavierBE0.210.1465.0063.120.060.04
Arizona St.P120.190.1450.0052.260.000.01
ColoradoP120.130.1452.6351.170.010.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.150.1250.0062.020.000.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.160.1257.8956.200.020.02
IPFWSum0.140.1235.2937.84-0.04-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.150.1225.0032.98-0.07-0.04
UMKCWAC0.200.1231.5838.42-0.07-0.03
PortlandWCC0.210.1252.6349.030.01-0.00
Texas St.SB0.220.1243.7545.96-0.03-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.1261.1166.570.030.04
PacificWCC0.140.1238.8934.79-0.03-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.1254.5565.340.000.04
BradleyMVC0.220.1230.0031.32-0.09-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.210.1235.2936.78-0.06-0.03
FurmanSC0.130.1223.5328.65-0.07-0.05
DenverSum0.220.1245.0047.58-0.02-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.140.1289.4783.130.110.08
MercerSC0.130.1247.3751.57-0.010.00
New MexicoMWC0.070.1165.0063.000.020.03
WyomingMWC0.200.1183.3376.420.140.06
UNLVMWC0.190.1152.6354.330.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.190.1147.0649.55-0.01-0.00
StanfordP120.130.1173.6869.350.060.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.0942.1147.25-0.02-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.150.0923.5327.69-0.08-0.04
Idaho St.BSky0.150.0916.6723.13-0.10-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.0938.8940.92-0.03-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.150.0935.2941.30-0.04-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.080.0955.5653.190.010.01
LamarSlnd0.080.0940.0038.36-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.160.0916.6735.39-0.10-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0935.7146.79-0.02-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.230.090.003.87-0.23-0.08
Green BayHorz0.140.0978.9577.950.080.05
IUPUISum0.130.0938.1040.92-0.03-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.200.0922.2226.65-0.11-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.0961.1160.510.030.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.0922.2237.82-0.08-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.130.0950.0051.290.000.00
FIUCUSA0.070.0843.7540.69-0.01-0.02
WoffordSC0.180.0873.6873.960.080.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.085.5616.70-0.06-0.06
Kansas St.B120.130.0860.0047.770.03-0.00
SyracuseACC0.070.0870.0058.860.030.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.065.5611.55-0.07-0.05
DelawareCAA0.080.0621.0522.39-0.05-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.080.0666.6767.030.030.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.070.0627.7828.14-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.070.0684.2175.980.050.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.160.0623.0839.13-0.08-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0615.3818.24-0.05-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0643.7538.89-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.070.0678.9577.550.040.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0623.5344.31-0.04-0.01
VermontAE0.070.0652.6358.400.000.01
MinnesotaB100.140.0660.0056.590.030.01
Austin PeayOVC0.130.0627.7828.21-0.06-0.03
HowardMEAC0.070.0637.5042.49-0.02-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.140.0690.0084.490.110.04
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0644.4441.05-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0644.4443.29-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0671.4369.460.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.070.0663.1666.540.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0647.0654.41-0.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0647.3749.59-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0665.0068.140.020.02
TroySB0.070.0631.2531.62-0.03-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0661.1162.880.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0631.2527.91-0.02-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0644.4444.57-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.140.06100.0098.450.140.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0625.0032.67-0.03-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0663.1662.140.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0635.2931.60-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0658.8258.900.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0642.1141.46-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.070.0670.5968.460.030.02
MaristMAAC0.070.0610.0013.95-0.05-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0652.3857.310.000.01
NebraskaB100.070.0663.1651.440.020.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0655.0061.950.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0633.3345.66-0.02-0.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0666.6760.490.020.01
TexasB120.070.0673.6868.850.030.02
The CitadelSC0.060.0629.4131.64-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0616.6722.12-0.04-0.03
VMISC0.060.0631.5837.63-0.02-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0636.8441.41-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0664.7156.870.020.01
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0689.4787.900.050.04
Boise St.MWC0.000.0666.6767.920.000.02
MichiganB100.130.0557.8950.450.020.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0517.6526.25-0.04-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.130.0542.1135.41-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.120.0545.0040.40-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0573.6870.360.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.070.0580.0076.050.040.03
VirginiaACC0.000.05100.0093.850.000.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0335.2934.92-0.02-0.01
BaylorB120.080.0377.7871.550.040.01
GeorgetownBE0.080.0373.6868.120.040.01
IowaB100.070.0365.0063.290.020.01
MemphisAmer0.080.0363.1661.650.020.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0310.5315.27-0.06-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.080.0335.2933.29-0.02-0.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0361.1161.380.020.01
RichmondA100.070.0352.6355.820.000.00
Saint LouisA100.080.0344.4437.38-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.080.0343.7543.05-0.01-0.00
CreightonBE0.060.0342.8638.66-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0330.0029.56-0.03-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.070.0372.2264.370.030.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0327.7829.90-0.03-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0333.3334.72-0.02-0.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0377.7872.290.040.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0335.0034.24-0.02-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.0337.5037.44-0.02-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0322.2232.05-0.03-0.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0322.2229.76-0.03-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0373.6872.910.030.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0342.1145.86-0.01-0.00
ElonCAA0.060.0347.3744.12-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.030.004.38-0.06-0.03
HoustonAmer0.060.0336.8435.27-0.02-0.01
IllinoisB100.070.0361.9060.540.020.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0321.0521.33-0.03-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0325.0025.65-0.03-0.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0311.7617.55-0.05-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0373.6872.640.030.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0347.3747.23-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.060.0352.6346.660.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0363.1663.590.020.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0315.7926.56-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0370.5977.560.000.02
Penn St.B100.060.0365.0051.820.020.00
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0317.6518.16-0.04-0.02
PurdueB100.060.0360.0056.840.010.00
RiderMAAC0.060.0361.9062.370.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0325.0029.95-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0357.8959.400.010.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0340.0037.70-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.070.0384.2180.700.050.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0042.920.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.070.0357.8948.730.01-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0352.6355.500.000.00
DukeACC0.070.0389.4783.700.050.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0350.0044.180.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0352.9455.320.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0347.3742.83-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.070.0375.0068.440.030.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0335.0031.73-0.02-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0316.6723.19-0.04-0.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0333.3330.05-0.02-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0347.3749.77-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0361.9060.160.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0390.4884.070.000.02
OaklandHorz0.060.0333.3340.21-0.02-0.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0376.1976.740.030.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0355.5654.930.010.00
UTEPCUSA0.060.0363.1668.480.020.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0370.5967.500.030.01