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Through games of Jan 20, 2017.


Cal St. Northridge

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:262.6
Current RPI:251
Expected SOS:299
Current SOS:238
Current Record:6-10
Expected Record:12-15
Current Conf Record:3-2
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-6
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:293
Expected OOC SOS:167



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-10170.70.03%
16-11190.30.67%
15-12207.13.84%
14-13226.411.15%
13-14244.220.46%
12-15261.924.92%
11-16279.921.50%
10-17296.811.95%
9-18310.84.17%
8-19321.81.11%
7-20330.90.19%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Northridge.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13UCLA (15.7)P12A102-87L0%0.0
11-15Stanford (86.0)P12A96-69L0%0.0
11-19Northern Illinois (184.8)MACH84-82W100%0.0
11-24Texas A&M (108.1)SECN73-95L0%0.0
11-25New Mexico (85.0)MWCN105-89L0%0.0
11-27Portland (203.3)WCCN96-78L0%0.0
12-3Idaho St. (313.8)BSkyH79-76W100%0.0
12-5St. John's (152.2)BEA76-70L0%0.0
12-10Loyola Marymount (173.3)WCCH68-69L0%0.0
12-21Boise St. (77.1)MWCA79-62L0%0.0
12-29Morgan St. (319.2)MEACH82-61W100%0.0
1-4UC Riverside (300.7)BWH82-76W100%0.0
1-7Cal St. Fullerton (319.8)BWA65-70W100%0.0
1-11Long Beach St. (229.1)BWA82-89W100%0.0
1-14UC Davis (213.7)BWH68-71L0%0.0
1-18Hawaii (298.1)BWA80-77L0%0.0
1-21UC Irvine (136.4)BWH0-039%-3.1
1-25UC Santa Barbara (290.8)BWA0-050%-0.1
1-28UC Riverside (300.7)BWA0-052%0.6
2-1Long Beach St. (229.1)BWH0-059%2.6
2-4Hawaii (298.1)BWH0-066%4.6
2-11UC Santa Barbara (290.8)BWH0-071%6.1
2-15Cal Poly (317.4)BWH0-075%7.5
2-23UC Davis (213.7)BWA0-034%-4.5
2-25UC Irvine (136.4)BWA0-020%-9.3
3-2Cal Poly (317.4)BWA0-055%1.3
3-4Cal St. Fullerton (319.8)BWH0-073%6.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Northridge's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal St. Northridge's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal St. Northridge.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal St. NorthridgeBW26.4826.4137.1443.51-6.81-3.43
UC RiversideBW3.574.6823.0831.46-1.92-1.74
Long Beach St.BW3.414.6727.7838.15-1.52-1.11
Cal PolyBW0.294.6618.7526.43-0.18-2.20
Cal St. FullertonBW3.434.6640.0039.63-0.69-0.97
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.254.6513.3326.06-0.19-2.23
UC IrvineBW0.284.6452.6359.520.010.88
UC DavisBW3.244.6350.0052.620.000.24
HawaiiBW3.304.6340.0044.61-0.66-0.50
UCLAP123.592.1594.7489.343.211.69
PortlandWCC3.502.0943.7538.25-0.44-0.49
Loyola MarymountWCC3.411.9843.7542.26-0.43-0.31
Boise St.MWC3.401.9860.0061.760.680.47
New MexicoMWC3.321.9555.5656.580.370.26
Northern IllinoisMAC3.121.9264.2955.440.890.21
Idaho St.BSky3.301.9213.3322.86-2.42-1.04
Morgan St.MEAC3.221.8840.0046.20-0.64-0.14
StanfordP123.201.8852.9446.210.19-0.14
Texas A&MSEC3.201.8850.0049.330.00-0.03
St. John'sBE3.121.8542.1136.49-0.49-0.50
Santa ClaraWCC0.390.3347.3745.83-0.02-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.270.3050.0043.680.00-0.04
PacificWCC0.270.2936.8435.66-0.07-0.08
NevadaMWC0.170.2984.2178.680.120.17
WashingtonP120.270.2950.0043.390.00-0.04
CaliforniaP120.170.2968.4264.450.060.08
PepperdineWCC0.270.2622.2221.17-0.15-0.15
Colorado St.MWC0.440.2552.9450.600.030.00
ArizonaP120.260.2589.4784.510.210.17
UNLVMWC0.390.2347.3743.68-0.02-0.03
UtahP120.290.2368.7567.640.110.08
Saint Mary'sWCC0.270.2388.8987.310.210.17
Utah St.MWC0.280.2243.7543.98-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.340.2216.6713.65-0.23-0.16
Nebraska OmahaSum0.200.2152.6353.100.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.090.2063.1660.550.020.04
IdahoBSky0.380.1940.0044.98-0.08-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.180.1958.8254.690.030.02
USCP120.180.1980.0071.930.110.08
Arizona St.P120.160.1947.3744.51-0.01-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.250.1988.2484.520.190.13
Utah ValleyWAC0.300.1740.0044.67-0.06-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.280.1757.1457.210.040.02
BYUWCC0.190.1770.0068.710.080.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.180.1617.6529.60-0.11-0.07
Air ForceMWC0.090.1641.1837.57-0.02-0.04
Seton HallBE0.180.1666.6758.230.060.03
OregonP120.180.1688.8983.420.140.10
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1461.1163.070.020.04
MontanaBSky0.210.1450.0058.290.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.210.1431.2538.34-0.08-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1453.3361.620.000.03
Southern UtahBSky0.190.1311.7618.03-0.14-0.09
SMUAmer0.180.1380.0077.810.110.07
SeattleWAC0.090.1340.0037.08-0.02-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.100.1360.0066.110.020.04
San Jose St.MWC0.090.1346.6738.45-0.01-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.180.1331.2536.88-0.07-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.180.1350.0061.630.000.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.1353.3356.530.010.02
North CarolinaACC0.180.1384.2180.600.120.08
WyomingMWC0.000.1364.7157.710.000.02
ColoradoP120.170.1350.0052.890.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1231.5833.41-0.00-0.04
DenverSum0.200.1057.8955.950.030.01
ElonCAA0.100.1050.0051.340.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.090.10100.0097.320.090.09
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1052.9451.110.010.00
Indiana St.MVC0.300.1033.3335.90-0.10-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.180.1017.6524.51-0.12-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.180.1077.7878.460.100.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.1042.8650.49-0.010.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.1016.6720.43-0.06-0.06
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.1020.0024.21-0.06-0.05
AkronMAC0.000.0983.3376.940.000.05
San Diego St.MWC0.180.0958.8264.380.030.03
KansasB120.170.0994.4481.800.150.06
UTEPCUSA0.080.0918.7524.05-0.05-0.05
Washington St.P120.090.0947.0633.39-0.01-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.160.0935.2937.32-0.05-0.02
KentuckySEC0.170.0988.8987.510.130.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.0718.7527.90-0.06-0.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0760.0063.140.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.0752.6352.920.010.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0764.7156.100.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.200.0735.2935.14-0.06-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.100.0756.2551.810.010.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.0722.2225.60-0.00-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.0758.8260.260.020.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.0712.5019.98-0.07-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.0720.0026.44-0.06-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.100.0747.0648.10-0.01-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.210.0737.5034.55-0.05-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.100.0733.3340.46-0.03-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0750.0057.040.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0725.0031.85-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.0722.2223.82-0.05-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.100.0725.0022.32-0.05-0.04
Texas St.SB0.100.0753.3345.980.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0752.9452.870.000.00
TroySB0.100.0747.0648.13-0.01-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0743.7538.29-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.170.0676.4776.940.090.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.190.0670.5958.250.080.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0614.2929.27-0.07-0.03
DrakeMVC0.090.0629.4127.72-0.04-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0664.7162.600.030.02
OaklandHorz0.090.0672.2274.630.040.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0658.8261.440.020.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.180.0612.5024.37-0.13-0.03
MinnesotaB100.180.0678.9570.150.110.03
Penn St.B100.180.0657.8949.820.03-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.090.0677.7870.290.050.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0670.5973.700.000.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0664.7169.850.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.080.0684.2179.280.060.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0626.3228.81-0.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0629.4125.93-0.00-0.03
TexasB120.080.0638.8935.38-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0644.4442.60-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.170.0677.7862.530.100.02
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0678.9582.980.050.04
LSUSEC0.090.0652.9438.780.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.080.0684.2178.340.050.03
CreightonBE0.080.0694.4484.720.070.04
DePaulBE0.160.0642.1130.39-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.080.0652.6348.210.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0666.6761.530.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0665.0055.280.000.01
VillanovaBE0.080.0694.7489.270.070.05
XavierBE0.080.0672.2267.680.030.02
BrownIvy0.100.0347.0642.91-0.01-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0337.5044.96-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.100.0343.7542.60-0.01-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.0373.6869.690.050.01
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0335.2941.77-0.03-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0331.5832.58-0.04-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.100.0344.4443.57-0.01-0.00
FIUCUSA0.100.0311.7621.45-0.08-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0326.6740.16-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.100.0337.5042.27-0.02-0.01
HoustonAmer0.100.0368.4268.060.040.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0312.5028.49-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0323.0830.70-0.05-0.01
LamarSlnd0.100.0346.6747.34-0.01-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.100.0335.0036.31-0.03-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0312.5033.82-0.00-0.01
NJITASun0.100.0338.8942.49-0.02-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.0318.7535.73-0.06-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.030.0014.44-0.10-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0360.0072.810.000.02
OhioMAC0.000.0366.6767.550.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.100.0312.5013.05-0.07-0.02
RutgersB100.100.0355.5642.900.01-0.00
South DakotaSum0.090.0355.0054.820.010.00
South FloridaAmer0.100.0335.2928.97-0.03-0.01
Texas TechB120.100.0377.7865.330.050.01
TowsonCAA0.100.0352.6354.610.010.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0368.7570.270.030.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0333.3333.28-0.03-0.01
WagnerNEC0.100.0337.5047.61-0.02-0.00
WisconsinB100.100.0383.3381.320.070.02
HarvardIvy0.090.0358.3361.560.010.01
Miami FLACC0.090.0370.5960.550.040.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0328.5734.62-0.04-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0364.7157.700.000.00
AmericanPat0.090.0327.7830.73-0.04-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6755.390.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0377.7874.930.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0364.7158.520.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0328.5741.77-0.04-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0361.1155.030.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0325.0034.04-0.05-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0382.3574.990.060.02
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0335.2944.13-0.03-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.090.0347.0648.42-0.01-0.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.700.000.02
FordhamA100.080.0338.8935.26-0.02-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0363.1660.780.020.01
MichiganB100.080.0363.1658.150.020.00
Michigan St.B100.080.0363.1657.700.020.00
NebraskaB100.080.0347.0641.67-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.080.0363.1658.020.020.00
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0361.1162.280.020.01
SyracuseACC0.080.0357.8952.520.010.00
TulaneAmer0.080.0322.2220.60-0.04-0.02
VCUA100.080.0373.6870.630.040.01