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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Cal St. Northridge

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:259.9
Current RPI:191
Expected SOS:282
Current SOS:37
Current Record:1-5
Expected Record:12-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-6
Current OOC Record:1-5
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:255
Expected OOC SOS:114



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-797.00.01%
19-8114.80.04%
18-9130.10.16%
17-10150.70.86%
16-11170.62.38%
15-12192.95.66%
14-13214.99.58%
13-14236.815.95%
12-15256.518.12%
11-16275.417.92%
10-17292.513.85%
9-18307.58.79%
8-19319.24.39%
7-20328.51.59%
6-21336.30.54%
5-22342.00.12%
4-23341.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Northridge.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13UCLA (19.0)P12A102-87L0%0.0
11-15Stanford (54.1)P12A96-69L0%0.0
11-19Northern Illinois (209.4)MACH84-82W100%0.0
11-24Texas A&M (42.0)SECN73-95L0%0.0
11-25New Mexico (84.5)MWCN105-89L0%0.0
11-27Portland (108.8)WCCN96-78L0%0.0
12-3Idaho St. (276.7)BSkyH0-073%7.2
12-5St. John's (167.9)BEA0-018%-11.2
12-10Loyola Marymount (169.7)WCCH0-046%-1.1
12-21Boise St. (106.2)MWCA0-015%-12.6
12-29Morgan St. (332.1)MEACH0-084%11.8
1-4UC Riverside (291.2)BWH0-070%6.4
1-7Cal St. Fullerton (331.5)BWA0-057%2.2
1-11Long Beach St. (199.2)BWA0-033%-5.4
1-14UC Davis (236.9)BWH0-061%3.4
1-18Hawaii (274.4)BWA0-037%-4.0
1-21UC Irvine (155.6)BWH0-045%-1.5
1-25UC Santa Barbara (274.6)BWA0-046%-1.2
1-28UC Riverside (291.2)BWA0-051%0.2
2-1Long Beach St. (199.2)BWH0-053%0.8
2-4Hawaii (274.4)BWH0-057%2.2
2-11UC Santa Barbara (274.6)BWH0-066%5.0
2-15Cal Poly (281.6)BWH0-068%5.5
2-23UC Davis (236.9)BWA0-041%-2.8
2-25UC Irvine (155.6)BWA0-026%-7.7
3-2Cal Poly (281.6)BWA0-048%-0.7
3-4Cal St. Fullerton (331.5)BWH0-076%8.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Northridge's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal St. Northridge's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal St. Northridge.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal St. NorthridgeBW28.7626.4212.5042.31-21.57-4.06
UC RiversideBW1.354.690.0032.91-1.35-1.60
Long Beach St.BW0.524.680.0038.06-0.52-1.12
Cal PolyBW0.604.6733.3335.43-0.20-1.36
Cal St. FullertonBW0.004.6716.6729.74-0.00-1.89
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.004.670.0032.60-0.00-1.62
UC DavisBW0.004.6557.1448.360.00-0.15
UC IrvineBW0.004.6550.0053.960.000.37
HawaiiBW0.004.6350.0050.790.000.07
UCLAP129.862.15100.0083.009.861.42
PortlandWCC8.852.1250.0055.700.000.24
Boise St.MWC0.002.0150.0058.040.000.32
Loyola MarymountWCC0.001.9833.3345.29-0.00-0.19
New MexicoMWC8.331.9566.6757.252.780.28
Northern IllinoisMAC8.331.9250.0046.970.00-0.12
Idaho St.BSky0.601.9114.2929.90-0.43-0.77
Morgan St.MEAC0.001.8816.6737.86-0.00-0.46
StanfordP128.331.8871.4357.643.570.29
Texas A&MSEC8.851.8860.0064.931.770.56
St. John'sBE0.001.8528.5732.30-0.00-0.66
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.3337.5036.24-0.00-0.09
San DiegoWCC0.520.2928.5727.50-0.22-0.13
NevadaMWC0.000.2975.0070.470.000.12
PacificWCC0.520.2950.0049.010.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.2957.1452.630.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.2983.3363.610.000.08
PepperdineWCC0.000.2650.0035.230.00-0.08
Colorado St.MWC0.520.2583.3361.490.350.06
ArizonaP120.000.2585.7170.990.000.10
UNLVMWC0.000.2371.4349.590.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.520.22100.0089.040.520.17
Utah St.MWC0.000.2250.0053.560.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.2228.5723.76-0.00-0.11
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.2133.3348.73-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.2083.3350.740.000.00
IdahoBSky0.600.1940.0050.88-0.120.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1960.0039.610.00-0.04
USCP120.690.19100.0075.380.690.10
Arizona St.P120.000.1957.1436.050.00-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.600.1971.4368.100.260.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1716.6736.35-0.00-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1760.0058.950.000.03
UtahP120.000.1675.0061.040.000.04
Portland St.BSky0.000.1625.0040.37-0.00-0.03
Seton HallBE0.520.1671.4354.520.220.01
BYUWCC0.000.1671.4368.660.000.06
Weber St.BSky0.520.1620.0054.94-0.310.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.1650.0042.710.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.1671.4366.730.000.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1450.0056.260.000.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.1425.0063.95-0.000.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1450.0059.670.000.03
MontanaBSky0.000.1414.2947.44-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1416.6740.71-0.00-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.130.0023.26-0.00-0.07
North CarolinaACC0.000.1385.7180.010.000.08
SeattleWAC0.000.1320.0042.63-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.1357.1469.300.000.05
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1316.6736.45-0.00-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1350.0055.850.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.13100.0091.060.000.10
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1314.2937.52-0.00-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.830.1340.0037.44-0.17-0.03
WyomingMWC0.000.1360.0048.590.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.1271.4359.850.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.100.0024.25-0.00-0.05
DenverSum0.000.1033.3341.11-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1050.0066.170.000.03
ElonCAA0.600.1083.3358.030.400.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.600.1050.0050.290.000.00
Indiana St.MVC1.710.1033.3346.81-0.57-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.10100.0069.770.000.04
AkronMAC0.000.1083.3369.840.000.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1014.2928.15-0.00-0.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.100.0021.30-0.00-0.05
KansasB120.000.0985.7176.170.000.05
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0975.0074.990.000.05
Washington St.P120.000.0950.0036.820.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.0942.8640.94-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0086.250.000.07
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0720.0034.39-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0757.1440.590.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0750.0043.310.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0733.3332.23-0.00-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0714.2934.56-0.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0760.0070.140.000.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0757.1447.320.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0750.0052.330.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0733.3343.64-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0766.6756.360.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.070.0018.22-0.00-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0023.46-0.00-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.000.0750.0051.820.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0750.0033.010.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.070.0024.19-0.00-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0742.8650.36-0.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0728.5728.46-0.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.77-0.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0021.30-0.00-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3380.700.000.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6751.460.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3333.15-0.00-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.0650.0062.460.000.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3353.29-0.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0061.810.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0683.3378.430.000.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0683.3370.360.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0616.6731.91-0.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0685.7165.670.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0662.5043.960.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0671.4343.020.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0683.3362.840.000.02
DaytonA101.430.0666.6772.440.480.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0650.0071.330.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.0685.7175.950.000.03
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4349.770.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0650.0045.920.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.0650.0036.240.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0657.1448.860.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC1.290.0685.7162.920.920.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0671.4386.030.000.04
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0075.690.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.650.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.0650.0047.560.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0671.4363.090.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0671.4356.280.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0083.120.000.04
XavierBE0.000.06100.0074.800.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.0680.0035.960.00-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.0350.0042.420.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0340.0050.91-0.000.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0033.54-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0333.3338.76-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0316.6733.69-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0034.18-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0350.0051.260.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0383.3376.370.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0037.92-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0333.3338.19-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.23-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.35-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.32-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0366.6775.370.000.02
OhioMAC0.000.0380.0068.320.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6732.240.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0350.0054.490.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0357.1464.940.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0333.3353.85-0.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0362.5056.500.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8646.78-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0333.3340.39-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.520.030.0043.04-0.52-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0360.0043.970.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.520.0371.4365.740.220.01
NJITASun0.000.0342.8650.32-0.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0333.3327.13-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0385.7163.780.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0375.0073.840.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.600.0325.0053.29-0.300.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6756.020.000.00
AmericanPat0.690.0316.6735.65-0.46-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0383.3355.200.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0387.5075.320.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6754.380.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.600.030.0038.51-0.60-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0371.4346.010.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.690.030.0034.01-0.69-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0080.780.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0357.1447.220.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0340.0043.86-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0325.0034.47-0.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0325.0024.28-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.550.000.02
FordhamA100.000.0357.1443.680.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0383.3357.990.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0371.4366.530.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0061.590.000.01
NebraskaB100.520.0350.0043.610.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0385.7172.660.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0366.6765.810.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6770.140.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0314.2926.81-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0385.7178.150.000.02