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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Cal St. Northridge

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:282.0
Current RPI:282
Expected SOS:118
Current SOS:118
Current Record:7-24
Expected Record:7-24
Current Conf Record:4-13
Expected Conf Record:4-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-7
Current OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC RPI:267
Expected OOC SOS:85



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-24282.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Northridge.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14San Diego St. (26.0)MWCA79-58L0%0.0
11-16Arizona (5.0)P12A86-68L0%0.0
11-19Montana St. (325.0)BSkyH72-65W100%0.0
11-22Samford (305.0)SCN79-72W100%0.0
11-23Arkansas Little Rock (276.0)SBA94-88L0%0.0
11-26Portland St. (225.0)BSkyH55-63L0%0.0
11-29Seattle (280.0)WACA70-58L0%0.0
12-2South Dakota (213.0)SumH65-68L0%0.0
12-4Pepperdine (134.0)WCCA66-56L0%0.0
12-17Oregon (27.0)P12A79-56L0%0.0
12-20Texas A&M Corpus Chris (209.0)SlndH68-75L0%0.0
12-23Louisville (21.0)ACCA80-55L0%0.0
12-29Stephen F. Austin (33.0)SlndH57-61L0%0.0
1-2Morgan St. (337.0)MEACH78-62W100%0.0
1-7UC Davis (75.0)BWA71-61L0%0.0
1-10Hawaii (152.0)BWA83-68L0%0.0
1-15UC Santa Barbara (87.0)BWA63-74W100%0.0
1-17Cal Poly (199.0)BWH55-48W100%0.0
1-22UC Irvine (88.0)BWH49-80L0%0.0
1-24Long Beach St. (111.0)BWH58-64L0%0.0
1-29Hawaii (152.0)BWH73-84L0%0.0
1-31UC Riverside (234.0)BWA66-62L0%0.0
2-5Cal St. Fullerton (314.0)BWA69-53L0%0.0
2-7UC Davis (75.0)BWH55-68L0%0.0
2-12Cal Poly (199.0)BWA70-63L0%0.0
2-14UC Santa Barbara (87.0)BWH57-65L0%0.0
2-21UC Irvine (88.0)BWA67-58L0%0.0
2-26Cal St. Fullerton (314.0)BWH82-72W100%0.0
2-28UC Riverside (234.0)BWH83-76W100%0.0
3-5Long Beach St. (111.0)BWA69-58L0%0.0
3-12UC Davis (75.0)BWN71-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Northridge's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal St. Northridge's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal St. Northridge.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal St. NorthridgeBW26.3726.3719.7119.71-15.98-15.98
UC DavisBW5.675.6776.9276.923.053.05
UC IrvineBW4.284.2858.6258.620.740.74
HawaiiBW4.244.2458.0658.060.680.68
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.204.2057.1457.140.600.60
Long Beach St.BW4.174.1741.3841.38-0.72-0.72
UC RiversideBW4.174.1740.7440.74-0.77-0.77
Cal St. FullertonBW4.124.1222.2222.22-2.29-2.29
Cal PolyBW4.084.0840.0040.00-0.82-0.82
OregonP121.821.8271.8871.880.800.80
SeattleWAC1.811.8146.4346.43-0.13-0.13
ArizonaP121.761.7690.9190.911.441.44
San Diego St.MWC1.741.7475.0075.000.870.87
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.721.7255.1755.170.180.18
Portland St.BSky1.721.7246.1546.15-0.13-0.13
Morgan St.MEAC1.721.7223.3323.33-0.92-0.92
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.721.7286.2186.211.241.24
Montana St.BSky1.671.6721.4321.43-0.95-0.95
PepperdineWCC1.671.6755.1755.170.170.17
LouisvilleACC1.661.6674.1974.190.810.81
South DakotaSum1.641.6446.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Arkansas Little RockSB1.611.6137.9337.93-0.39-0.39
SamfordSC1.611.6140.0040.00-0.32-0.32
Sacramento St.BSky0.310.3162.0762.070.070.07
UCLAP120.290.2960.6160.610.060.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.240.2436.6736.67-0.06-0.06
San Jose St.MWC0.220.220.000.00-0.22-0.22
Utah ValleyWAC0.220.2232.1432.14-0.08-0.08
NevadaMWC0.220.2224.1424.14-0.11-0.11
Washington St.P120.210.2141.9441.94-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.210.2171.8871.880.090.09
IdahoBSky0.200.2039.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.200.2046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.190.1941.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.190.1968.9768.970.070.07
Fresno St.MWC0.190.1943.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.190.1972.4172.410.080.08
WashingtonP120.180.1851.6151.610.010.01
UtahP120.180.1874.1974.190.090.09
Santa ClaraWCC0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.160.1693.9493.940.140.14
Houston BaptistSlnd0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.160.1623.3323.33-0.09-0.09
San DiegoWCC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
USCP120.160.1637.5037.50-0.04-0.04
CaliforniaP120.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
Oregon St.P120.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
PittsburghACC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
ColoradoP120.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
MontanaBSky0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
IPFWSum0.140.1448.1548.15-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
FurmanSC0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
WyomingMWC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Colorado St.MWC0.130.1381.2581.250.080.08
Arizona St.P120.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
UNLVMWC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
PortlandWCC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Texas St.SB0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1165.5265.520.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.110.1158.3358.330.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.110.1130.7730.77-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.110.1155.5655.560.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
BradleyMVC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
DenverSum0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
PacificWCC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.090.0917.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Weber St.BSky0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
FIUCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
LamarSlnd0.080.0842.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Green BayHorz0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
IUPUISum0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
SyracuseACC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
DelawareCAA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0590.9190.910.040.04
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0590.6290.620.040.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
IowaB100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Ohio St.B100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
VCUA100.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01