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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Cal St. Northridge

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:334.7
Current RPI:348
Expected SOS:291
Current SOS:343
Current Record:3-14
Expected Record:5-23
Current Conf Record:2-3
Expected Conf Record:4-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-10
Current OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC RPI:351
Expected OOC SOS:336



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-17260.00.01%
10-18282.10.16%
9-19295.91.27%
8-20311.14.78%
7-21323.313.48%
6-22332.624.79%
5-23339.330.36%
4-24343.719.04%
3-25346.16.10%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Northridge.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Fresno St. (103.9)MWCA89-73L0%0.0
11-18George Mason (224.6)A10A78-73L0%0.0
11-21Southeast Missouri St. (244.4)OVCN74-59L0%0.0
11-22Binghamton (270.4)AEN65-70L0%0.0
11-28California (190.5)P12A83-63L0%0.0
12-3Montana (98.9)BSkyA86-68L0%0.0
12-6Idaho St. (263.3)BSkyA74-66L0%0.0
12-9Loyola Marymount (263.0)WCCH57-74L0%0.0
12-17Eastern Washington (192.1)BSkyA86-58L0%0.0
12-19Sacramento St. (279.0)BSkyA66-61L0%0.0
12-23Idaho St. (263.3)BSkyH55-67L0%0.0
12-30Morgan St. (312.1)MEACH79-69W100%0.0
1-6Hawaii (162.9)BWH46-65L0%0.0
1-10Long Beach St. (191.0)BWA80-70L0%0.0
1-13UC Irvine (176.1)BWH54-71L0%0.0
1-17UC Riverside (301.1)BWA57-66W100%0.0
1-20Cal Poly (282.2)BWH72-54W100%0.0
1-25UC Davis (106.3)BWA0-09%-15.2
1-27Long Beach St. (191.0)BWH0-035%-4.3
2-1UC Davis (106.3)BWH0-021%-8.8
2-3UC Santa Barbara (108.2)BWA0-07%-16.1
2-7UC Irvine (176.1)BWA0-012%-13.3
2-10Hawaii (162.9)BWA0-012%-12.9
2-14UC Riverside (301.1)BWH0-051%0.1
2-17Cal St. Fullerton (161.0)BWA0-015%-11.8
2-22Cal Poly (282.2)BWA0-029%-6.1
2-24UC Santa Barbara (108.2)BWH0-019%-9.7
2-28Cal St. Fullerton (161.0)BWH0-032%-5.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Northridge's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal St. Northridge's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal St. Northridge.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal St. NorthridgeBW26.5926.4617.3318.86-17.37-16.48
UC RiversideBW3.264.5618.7523.83-2.04-2.38
Cal St. FullertonBW0.564.5456.2555.130.070.47
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.514.5270.5968.300.211.66
Cal PolyBW3.274.5225.0027.65-1.63-2.02
Long Beach St.BW3.274.5036.8440.54-0.86-0.85
UC IrvineBW3.194.5026.3236.05-1.51-1.26
UC DavisBW0.414.4958.8260.720.070.96
HawaiiBW3.104.4666.6761.571.031.03
Idaho St.BSky5.963.7035.7136.21-1.70-1.02
Sacramento St.BSky3.292.2411.7621.76-2.52-1.26
MontanaBSky3.182.1368.7572.141.190.94
CaliforniaP123.111.9833.3328.75-1.04-0.84
Eastern WashingtonBSky3.021.9535.2944.11-0.89-0.23
Fresno St.MWC3.171.9464.7162.060.930.47
Loyola MarymountWCC3.031.9223.5326.49-1.60-0.90
George MasonA103.191.8842.1139.40-0.50-0.40
BinghamtonAE3.101.8541.1840.70-0.55-0.34
Morgan St.MEAC3.101.8531.2541.14-1.16-0.33
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.941.7938.8941.48-0.65-0.30
Portland St.BSky0.680.4458.8263.210.120.12
Northern ColoradoBSky0.350.4258.8257.140.060.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.360.4066.6766.010.120.13
Montana St.BSky0.410.3850.0047.670.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.440.3529.4134.76-0.18-0.11
Southern UtahBSky0.430.3537.5033.78-0.11-0.11
Northern ArizonaBSky0.430.3511.1115.30-0.33-0.24
IdahoBSky0.320.3464.7166.850.100.12
PepperdineWCC0.250.3110.5318.34-0.19-0.20
San FranciscoWCC0.320.3150.0048.740.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.350.2956.2557.400.040.04
PacificWCC0.170.2645.0044.46-0.02-0.03
NevadaMWC0.250.2585.7182.070.180.16
Saint Mary'sWCC0.310.2590.4888.940.250.20
StanfordP120.410.2555.0050.370.040.00
WashingtonP120.330.2270.0061.440.130.05
USCP120.080.1971.4368.300.030.07
SeattleWAC0.430.1957.8954.500.070.02
Washington St.P120.260.1950.0042.180.00-0.03
Arizona St.P120.330.1978.9576.130.190.10
Oregon St.P120.230.1857.8950.810.040.00
PortlandWCC0.160.1627.7827.30-0.07-0.07
Colorado St.MWC0.240.1545.0041.34-0.02-0.03
BYUWCC0.270.1380.9576.230.160.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.1321.0539.47-0.05-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.180.1352.9460.270.010.03
San DiegoWCC0.080.1363.1657.540.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.170.1333.3332.96-0.06-0.04
UtahP120.170.1361.1158.950.040.02
San Diego St.MWC0.240.1258.8262.830.040.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.310.1243.7554.09-0.040.01
Utah St.MWC0.160.1245.0045.50-0.02-0.01
ArizonaP120.150.1280.0078.980.090.07
UCLAP120.150.1265.0062.040.050.03
HowardMEAC0.090.1010.5327.31-0.07-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.170.1030.0036.48-0.07-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.180.1011.7612.81-0.14-0.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.100.009.15-0.08-0.08
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.1050.0052.440.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.170.1070.0071.230.070.04
Air ForceMWC0.170.1037.5031.76-0.04-0.03
PittsburghACC0.090.1040.0030.87-0.02-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.170.1060.0062.030.030.02
DavidsonA100.170.0958.8261.440.030.02
Boise St.MWC0.250.0978.9576.970.140.05
UNLVMWC0.080.0973.6865.280.040.03
WyomingMWC0.080.0961.1156.830.020.01
EvansvilleMVC0.240.0952.6347.360.01-0.00
West VirginiaB120.160.0984.2178.170.110.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.160.0931.5832.72-0.06-0.03
Penn St.B100.240.0961.9055.770.060.01
George WashingtonA100.160.0945.0043.49-0.02-0.01
Kansas St.B120.150.0973.6862.720.070.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.160.0950.0051.650.000.00
VCUA100.080.0960.0059.690.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0766.6755.930.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0737.5046.630.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.079.5217.94-0.07-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0710.0019.62-0.07-0.04
Miami FLACC0.090.0776.4769.020.050.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0727.7834.50-0.04-0.02
TroySB0.090.0735.2942.76-0.03-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.180.0721.0523.50-0.11-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0662.5058.700.020.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0666.6765.620.030.02
GonzagaWCC0.080.0680.9583.260.050.04
LamarSlnd0.000.0650.0054.850.000.01
MichiganB100.090.0675.0070.270.040.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0625.0028.020.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.080.0645.0048.56-0.01-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0644.4450.310.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0661.1160.790.000.01
SMUAmer0.090.0670.0070.630.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0668.4263.980.000.02
ValparaisoMVC0.090.0650.0051.360.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.170.0666.6765.530.060.02
OregonP120.080.0665.0063.830.020.02
AlbanyAE0.080.0670.0068.050.030.02
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0644.4445.98-0.01-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0629.4133.94-0.03-0.02
HartfordAE0.080.0652.6346.880.00-0.00
MaineAE0.080.0610.5314.86-0.06-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0623.5328.70-0.04-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.080.0670.5975.930.030.03
New HampshireAE0.080.0629.4138.15-0.03-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0636.8432.79-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.080.0638.8946.68-0.02-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0626.3231.520.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0629.4130.670.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.0658.8258.360.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0673.6877.120.000.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.150.0652.6355.290.010.01
Saint LouisA100.150.0647.3746.91-0.01-0.00
DenverSum0.070.0633.3336.47-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0646.6746.98-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.070.0685.0083.180.050.04
MissouriSEC0.070.0666.6763.200.020.02
NebraskaB100.070.0666.6759.780.020.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0683.3384.230.050.04
RiderMAAC0.070.0665.0065.370.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0672.2272.970.030.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0645.0045.02-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0650.0046.780.00-0.00
RichmondA100.000.0631.5834.350.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0320.0041.760.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0347.3748.17-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0315.7920.92-0.06-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0342.1144.97-0.01-0.00
NavyPat0.090.0360.0055.160.020.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0318.7536.760.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0355.5656.710.010.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0327.7831.670.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.090.0335.0026.14-0.03-0.02
TowsonCAA0.090.0363.1666.000.020.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0368.4264.200.030.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0329.4133.22-0.03-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.037.6920.09-0.07-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0328.5731.27-0.04-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0330.0032.53-0.03-0.01
ArmyPat0.080.0361.1160.530.020.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0371.4374.650.030.02
BradleyMVC0.080.0365.0057.870.020.00
ColgatePat0.080.0350.0051.040.000.00
CornellIvy0.080.0333.3333.36-0.03-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0370.0068.220.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0340.0042.57-0.02-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.080.0322.2228.67-0.05-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0330.0033.49-0.03-0.01
South DakotaSum0.080.0373.6872.360.040.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0352.6350.250.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0335.2940.48-0.02-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0357.8953.190.000.00
UMKCWAC0.080.0321.0524.71-0.04-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0345.0049.27-0.01-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0360.0053.730.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.080.0378.9577.360.040.02
WoffordSC0.080.0368.7563.620.030.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0389.4777.030.060.02
DaytonA100.000.0347.3750.950.000.00
DuquesneA100.070.0370.0058.100.030.00
FordhamA100.000.0331.5829.060.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0366.6765.360.020.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0325.0028.25-0.04-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0340.0042.720.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.070.0322.2227.51-0.04-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0377.7869.360.040.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0383.3381.410.050.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6768.700.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.070.0364.7159.980.020.01