live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Cal St. Northridge

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:280.0
Current RPI:280
Expected SOS:224
Current SOS:224
Current Record:8-20
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:5-11
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-7
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:285
Expected OOC SOS:276



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-20280.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Northridge.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Northern Illinois (136.0)MACA83-71L0%0.0
11-14Wright St. (146.0)HorzN72-67W100%0.0
11-15South Dakota (197.0)SumN76-72L0%0.0
11-23USC (51.0)P12A96-61L0%0.0
11-25Loyola Marymount (223.0)WCCA82-80L0%0.0
11-29UCLA (102.0)P12A77-45L0%0.0
12-5Pepperdine (129.0)WCCH55-70L0%0.0
12-7San Francisco (228.0)WCCA65-61L0%0.0
12-17Portland St. (282.0)BSkyA71-77W100%0.0
12-23San Diego (302.0)WCCA81-63L0%0.0
12-29Idaho St. (256.0)BSkyA84-79L0%0.0
1-2Morgan St. (327.0)MEACH88-74W100%0.0
1-6Long Beach St. (79.0)BWH79-94L0%0.0
1-9Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWA75-85W100%0.0
1-14UC Davis (281.0)BWA63-62L0%0.0
1-16UC Riverside (267.0)BWH72-75L0%0.0
1-21Cal Poly (236.0)BWH76-74W100%0.0
1-23UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWA74-61L0%0.0
1-27UC Irvine (75.0)BWH63-73L0%0.0
2-3UC Riverside (267.0)BWA71-73W100%0.0
2-6Long Beach St. (79.0)BWA81-76L0%0.0
2-10Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWH75-67W100%0.0
2-13UC Irvine (75.0)BWA93-84L0%0.0
2-18Hawaii (80.0)BWH63-69L0%0.0
2-20Cal Poly (236.0)BWA71-75W100%0.0
2-25UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWH63-78L0%0.0
2-27Hawaii (80.0)BWA89-78L0%0.0
3-5UC Davis (281.0)BWH83-87L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Northridge's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal St. Northridge's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal St. Northridge.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal St. NorthridgeBW26.3126.3131.8231.82-9.57-9.57
Long Beach St.BW4.654.6553.3353.330.310.31
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.594.5953.5753.570.330.33
HawaiiBW4.594.5982.1482.142.952.95
Cal St. FullertonBW4.584.5830.7730.77-1.76-1.76
UC IrvineBW4.574.5770.0070.001.831.83
UC RiversideBW4.564.5637.9337.93-1.10-1.10
Cal PolyBW4.514.5130.7730.77-1.74-1.74
UC DavisBW4.494.4926.9226.92-2.07-2.07
Loyola MarymountWCC2.242.2441.3841.38-0.39-0.39
San DiegoWCC2.152.1525.0025.00-1.08-1.08
San FranciscoWCC2.112.1146.4346.43-0.15-0.15
PepperdineWCC2.082.0855.1755.170.220.22
USCP122.022.0262.5062.500.510.51
UCLAP122.022.0245.1645.16-0.20-0.20
Portland St.BSky1.911.9139.2939.29-0.41-0.41
Idaho St.BSky1.851.8546.4346.43-0.13-0.13
Wright St.Horz1.851.8562.5062.500.460.46
South DakotaSum1.841.8437.9337.93-0.44-0.44
Morgan St.MEAC1.841.8427.5927.59-0.83-0.83
Northern IllinoisMAC1.841.8457.1457.140.260.26
Saint Mary'sWCC0.490.4983.8783.870.330.33
PortlandWCC0.430.4335.4835.48-0.13-0.13
PacificWCC0.360.3623.0823.08-0.19-0.19
Santa ClaraWCC0.360.3633.3333.33-0.12-0.12
BYUWCC0.300.3068.7568.750.110.11
Sacramento St.BSky0.280.2841.3841.38-0.05-0.05
GonzagaWCC0.270.2778.1278.120.150.15
Oregon St.P120.260.2660.0060.000.050.05
WashingtonP120.230.2356.2556.250.030.03
OregonP120.220.2281.8281.820.140.14
IdahoBSky0.210.2161.2961.290.050.05
SeattleWAC0.190.1942.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.180.1827.5927.59-0.08-0.08
UNLVMWC0.180.1851.6151.610.010.01
DenverSum0.180.1851.6151.610.010.01
Washington St.P120.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Arizona St.P120.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.170.1775.7675.760.090.09
Southern UtahBSky0.160.1614.2914.29-0.11-0.11
NevadaMWC0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
IPFWSum0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
MontanaBSky0.150.1562.0762.070.040.04
Montana St.BSky0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
Boise St.MWC0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.150.1572.4172.410.070.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.140.1410.7110.71-0.11-0.11
Fresno St.MWC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
North DakotaBSky0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.1277.4277.420.070.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.110.1169.7069.700.050.05
UtahP120.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
Ball St.MAC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.090.0926.9226.92-0.04-0.04
RiceCUSA0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
VirginiaACC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
KansasB120.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
DetroitHorz0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
OaklandHorz0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
UMBCAE0.060.0621.8821.88-0.04-0.04
UTSACUSA0.060.0613.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0657.6957.690.010.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
IUPUISum0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0622.8622.86-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
OklahomaB120.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
VermontAE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0629.1729.17-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Seton HallBE0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
UCFAmer0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LafayettePat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02