live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Northern Colorado

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:245.0
Current RPI:245
Expected SOS:289
Current SOS:289
Current Record:13-15
Expected Record:13-15
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:277
Expected OOC SOS:219



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-15245.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Colorado.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Wyoming (71.0)MWCA78-70L0%0.0
11-19New Mexico St. (103.0)WACA86-65L0%0.0
11-28Stetson (335.0)ASunH82-62W100%0.0
11-30Florida A&M (350.0)MEACH95-56W100%0.0
12-7Colorado St. (29.0)MWCA66-58L0%0.0
12-13Colorado (116.0)P12A93-68L0%0.0
12-17Nebraska Omaha (300.0)SumA92-82L0%0.0
12-20Jacksonville St. (304.0)OVCH69-60W100%0.0
12-22UC Davis (75.0)BWH63-73L0%0.0
1-1Montana (144.0)BSkyA66-48L0%0.0
1-3Montana St. (325.0)BSkyA54-62W100%0.0
1-8Portland St. (225.0)BSkyH90-85W100%0.0
1-10Sacramento St. (141.0)BSkyH84-73W100%0.0
1-17North Dakota (310.0)BSkyA78-88W100%0.0
1-22Eastern Washington (74.0)BSkyA95-85L0%0.0
1-24Idaho (267.0)BSkyA83-79L0%0.0
1-29Idaho St. (343.0)BSkyH79-76W100%0.0
1-31Weber St. (263.0)BSkyH71-57W100%0.0
2-5Northern Arizona (166.0)BSkyA65-60L0%0.0
2-7Southern Utah (307.0)BSkyA80-84W100%0.0
2-12Montana St. (325.0)BSkyH87-90L0%0.0
2-14Montana (144.0)BSkyH81-83L0%0.0
2-19Sacramento St. (141.0)BSkyA66-59L0%0.0
2-21Portland St. (225.0)BSkyA91-75L0%0.0
2-26Southern Utah (307.0)BSkyH77-67W100%0.0
2-28Northern Arizona (166.0)BSkyH76-74W100%0.0
3-7North Dakota (310.0)BSkyH72-71W100%0.0
3-12Northern Arizona (166.0)BSkyN63-57L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Colorado's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Colorado's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Colorado.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern ColoradoBSky26.4026.4046.3646.36-1.92-1.92
Northern ArizonaBSky6.246.2455.1755.170.650.65
Sacramento St.BSky4.534.5362.9662.961.171.17
North DakotaBSky4.524.5223.0823.08-2.43-2.43
MontanaBSky4.524.5257.1457.140.650.65
Portland St.BSky4.484.4848.0048.00-0.18-0.18
Southern UtahBSky4.434.4334.6234.62-1.36-1.36
Montana St.BSky4.404.4018.5218.52-2.77-2.77
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.842.8473.3373.331.321.32
Weber St.BSky2.762.7640.7440.74-0.51-0.51
IdahoBSky2.742.7437.0437.04-0.71-0.71
Idaho St.BSky2.702.7018.5218.52-1.70-1.70
WyomingMWC2.082.0870.9770.970.870.87
Colorado St.MWC1.961.9680.6580.651.201.20
Florida A&MMEAC1.911.917.147.14-1.63-1.63
New Mexico St.WAC1.901.9066.6766.670.630.63
StetsonASun1.901.9022.2222.22-1.06-1.06
Nebraska OmahaSum1.851.8537.0437.04-0.48-0.48
ColoradoP121.841.8445.1645.16-0.18-0.18
UC DavisBW1.821.8278.5778.571.041.04
Jacksonville St.OVC1.791.7935.7135.71-0.51-0.51
Utah ValleyWAC0.460.4632.1432.14-0.16-0.16
SeattleWAC0.300.3048.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.270.2774.1974.190.130.13
North Dakota St.Sum0.250.2570.0070.000.100.10
Fresno St.MWC0.220.2243.3343.33-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.220.2267.7467.740.080.08
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.220.2222.5822.58-0.12-0.12
Utah St.MWC0.210.2156.6756.670.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.210.2141.3841.38-0.04-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.200.2048.3948.39-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.190.1941.3841.38-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.180.1836.6736.67-0.05-0.05
San FranciscoWCC0.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.180.1851.7251.720.010.01
NevadaMWC0.180.1824.1424.14-0.09-0.09
San Diego St.MWC0.170.1775.7675.760.090.09
Northern KentuckyASun0.160.1639.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.08-0.08
UC IrvineBW0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
DenverSum0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
UTSACUSA0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.150.1575.8675.860.080.08
CaliforniaP120.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.140.140.000.00-0.14-0.14
North FloridaASun0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1360.7160.710.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1324.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Oral RobertsSum0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
OregonP120.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
USCP120.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
UtahP120.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
UCLAP120.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1038.4638.46-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.100.1048.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1023.0823.08-0.05-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0962.9662.960.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.090.0963.3363.330.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
LipscombASun0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0917.2417.24-0.06-0.06
UMKCWAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
WashingtonP120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
ToledoMAC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
IUPUISum0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0690.9190.910.050.05
FIUCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.060.0693.9493.940.050.05
KentuckySEC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
SMUAmer0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
ArizonaP120.060.0691.1891.180.050.05
Arizona St.P120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Oregon St.P120.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
BYUWCC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
BaylorB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
AuburnSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01