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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Northern Colorado

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:310.7
Current RPI:309
Expected SOS:242
Current SOS:253
Current Record:6-16
Expected Record:7-21
Current Conf Record:5-7
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-11
Current OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC RPI:343
Expected OOC SOS:245



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-16241.50.02%
11-17259.40.15%
10-18275.11.96%
9-19290.711.04%
8-20304.130.15%
7-21316.438.20%
6-22325.818.47%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Colorado.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Kansas (4.1)B12A109-72L0%0.0
11-21UMBC (321.1)AEH72-81L0%0.0
11-22Austin Peay (230.5)OVCH76-91L0%0.0
11-25Nebraska Omaha (124.9)SumH85-105L0%0.0
11-29Colorado (43.4)P12A82-52L0%0.0
12-3UC Riverside (265.2)BWA77-66L0%0.0
12-13Colorado St. (170.6)MWCH73-64W100%0.0
12-16Denver (209.2)SumH77-81L0%0.0
12-21Jacksonville St. (304.6)OVCA79-76L0%0.0
12-23Mississippi St. (162.2)SECA93-69L0%0.0
12-31Eastern Washington (201.4)BSkyH96-90W100%0.0
1-2Idaho (222.5)BSkyH70-75L0%0.0
1-7Idaho St. (266.1)BSkyA83-78L0%0.0
1-9Weber St. (139.2)BSkyA85-68L0%0.0
1-14Montana (145.3)BSkyH66-73L0%0.0
1-16Montana St. (252.0)BSkyH78-76W100%0.0
1-21Southern Utah (335.8)BSkyA80-90W100%0.0
1-23Northern Arizona (325.6)BSkyA79-84W100%0.0
1-30North Dakota (219.7)BSkyH71-70W100%0.0
2-4Weber St. (139.2)BSkyH54-64L0%0.0
2-6Idaho St. (266.1)BSkyH57-90L0%0.0
2-11Idaho (222.5)BSkyA73-67L0%0.0
2-13Eastern Washington (201.4)BSkyA0-013%-12.4
2-20North Dakota (219.7)BSkyA0-014%-11.9
2-25Sacramento St. (255.0)BSkyH0-041%-2.5
2-27Portland St. (289.0)BSkyH0-045%-1.4
3-3Montana St. (252.0)BSkyA0-020%-9.2
3-5Montana (145.3)BSkyA0-09%-14.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Colorado's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Colorado's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Colorado.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern ColoradoBSky26.4326.3424.5324.79-13.46-13.28
North DakotaBSky3.124.4747.3748.54-0.16-0.13
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.904.4157.1456.460.410.57
Montana St.BSky2.754.4045.4545.19-0.25-0.42
Idaho St.BSky5.034.3942.1144.04-0.79-0.52
Weber St.BSky5.034.3963.1667.421.321.53
MontanaBSky2.744.3857.8959.960.430.87
IdahoBSky4.984.3652.3852.030.240.18
Northern ArizonaBSky3.062.7510.0012.56-2.45-2.06
Portland St.BSky0.692.7530.0035.18-0.28-0.82
Sacramento St.BSky0.692.7540.0044.66-0.14-0.29
Southern UtahBSky3.062.7515.0015.49-2.14-1.90
DenverSum2.682.0750.0047.490.00-0.10
Nebraska OmahaSum2.461.9456.5257.050.320.27
KansasB122.331.8581.8278.481.481.06
Mississippi St.SEC2.321.8540.9141.83-0.42-0.30
ColoradoP122.371.8569.5764.390.930.53
Austin PeayOVC2.321.8237.5040.81-0.58-0.33
Jacksonville St.OVC2.321.8220.8321.45-1.35-1.04
UC RiversideBW2.321.8243.4839.61-0.30-0.38
Colorado St.MWC2.321.8257.1454.400.330.16
UMBCAE2.271.7920.0023.40-1.36-0.95
North Dakota St.Sum0.360.3960.8759.830.080.08
San Jose St.MWC0.360.3123.8122.86-0.19-0.17
PortlandWCC0.320.2538.4638.04-0.07-0.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.370.2533.3334.95-0.12-0.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.400.2573.9174.640.190.12
Washington St.P120.360.2534.7831.64-0.11-0.09
WyomingMWC0.240.2543.4842.54-0.03-0.04
South DakotaSum0.190.2244.0043.56-0.02-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.300.2266.6767.670.100.08
Utah St.MWC0.270.1947.6249.28-0.01-0.00
UC DavisBW0.190.1938.1035.34-0.05-0.05
IPFWSum0.180.1970.8368.660.080.07
Boise St.MWC0.210.1660.8760.440.050.03
San FranciscoWCC0.160.1652.1749.150.01-0.00
SeattleWAC0.100.1647.6245.02-0.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.160.1658.3356.290.030.02
IUPUISum0.190.1638.4638.50-0.04-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.200.1631.8230.08-0.07-0.06
UtahP120.210.1670.8368.520.090.06
NevadaMWC0.100.1657.1455.360.010.02
Murray St.OVC0.200.1647.8350.89-0.010.00
WashingtonP120.100.1362.5060.140.030.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.150.1333.3330.63-0.05-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.1350.0049.320.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.1316.6719.49-0.06-0.08
Oral RobertsSum0.090.1341.6742.39-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.190.1331.5832.04-0.07-0.05
UNLVMWC0.150.1252.1755.070.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.180.1239.1341.05-0.04-0.02
SamfordSC0.190.1240.0041.68-0.04-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.140.1243.4837.80-0.02-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1250.0050.500.000.00
HawaiiBW0.100.1285.0083.440.070.08
Cal PolyBW0.140.1228.5734.11-0.06-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.110.1079.1777.510.060.06
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1056.0055.450.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1050.0045.770.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.050.1023.8125.99-0.03-0.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.110.1014.2915.44-0.08-0.07
Arkansas Little RockSB0.150.0986.3684.220.110.06
Central MichiganMAC0.150.0947.6249.39-0.01-0.00
BYUWCC0.160.0968.0070.260.060.04
LamarSlnd0.160.0930.0029.13-0.06-0.04
StanfordP120.090.0947.6244.06-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.140.0968.0066.640.050.03
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0952.1753.440.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0913.0415.26-0.07-0.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0968.1865.170.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0965.2264.340.030.03
TroySB0.140.0922.7324.38-0.08-0.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0945.4551.69-0.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.140.0941.6741.18-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.150.0969.5770.090.060.04
USCP120.100.0978.2673.130.060.04
AlabamaSEC0.090.0960.8755.980.020.01
Long Beach St.BW0.100.0947.8351.92-0.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0958.3359.970.020.02
Iowa St.B120.100.0970.8367.970.040.03
Oregon St.P120.140.0963.6458.760.040.02
Texas TechB120.100.0960.8755.310.020.01
UC IrvineBW0.100.0969.5770.020.040.04
BradleyMVC0.060.0712.0011.95-0.04-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0750.0052.870.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.060.0758.3360.900.010.01
WisconsinB100.060.0762.5057.000.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0730.4332.26-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0682.6181.130.030.04
DavidsonA100.050.0661.9058.170.010.01
DrakeMVC0.110.0620.8323.28-0.06-0.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0672.7367.600.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0631.8234.54-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0679.1778.290.030.04
Arizona St.P120.000.0654.1751.700.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.100.0659.0961.280.020.01
MissouriSEC0.100.0633.3330.28-0.03-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.100.0661.9065.330.020.02
UMKCWAC0.100.0628.5732.75-0.04-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0656.5257.060.010.01
LipscombASun0.090.0628.0030.49-0.04-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.100.0631.8232.46-0.04-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.0660.0057.650.020.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0668.0064.090.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0676.1972.370.050.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.0635.0034.83-0.03-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0633.3332.04-0.03-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.100.0650.0052.940.000.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0639.1335.45-0.01-0.02
BaylorB120.050.0673.9168.450.020.02
CaliforniaP120.090.0666.6764.780.030.02
KentuckySEC0.100.0675.0072.610.050.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0662.5058.940.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0686.9682.620.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0645.8342.30-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.090.0679.1777.200.060.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0686.9680.420.040.04
TCUB120.100.0645.8339.36-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0666.6762.200.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0675.0075.340.020.03
UCLAP120.050.0656.5253.400.010.00
West VirginiaB120.100.0679.1778.100.060.03
Loyola MDPat0.090.0633.3335.18-0.03-0.02
AlbanyAE0.090.0673.0873.780.040.03
BinghamtonAE0.040.0624.0026.44-0.02-0.03
HartfordAE0.040.0624.0024.55-0.02-0.03
MaineAE0.090.0632.0031.16-0.03-0.02
New HampshireAE0.040.0659.0956.870.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.090.0682.6183.010.060.04
UMass LowellAE0.040.0637.5037.69-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.040.0652.0054.860.000.01
ButlerBE0.050.0370.8369.000.020.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0352.9452.100.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0343.4850.64-0.010.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0381.8281.780.030.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0366.6764.700.020.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0313.0412.96-0.04-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0340.0043.39-0.01-0.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0325.0027.26-0.02-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0336.8442.88-0.01-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0328.5733.30-0.02-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0383.3383.710.030.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.357.72-0.04-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0363.6461.550.000.01
IndianaB100.050.0380.0075.690.030.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0347.8348.57-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0360.8762.470.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0358.3360.710.000.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0362.5064.120.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0365.3865.510.020.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0330.4328.20-0.02-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0336.3636.29-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0383.3379.820.030.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0321.7422.42-0.03-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0354.1754.200.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0352.0048.920.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0366.6763.780.020.01
WoffordSC0.050.0345.8348.12-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.039.0912.26-0.04-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0366.6766.320.020.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0366.6763.300.020.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0359.0955.160.000.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0335.0038.57-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0341.6739.59-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0350.0049.760.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.050.0362.5059.080.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0382.6177.580.030.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0380.0081.560.030.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0337.5037.41-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0319.0525.90-0.03-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0318.1821.11-0.03-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0325.0033.23-0.02-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0363.6461.470.010.01
Penn St.B100.050.0350.0046.770.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0327.2728.16-0.02-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0386.9682.920.030.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0350.0048.130.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.4554.18-0.000.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0336.0034.84-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.040.0343.4844.90-0.01-0.00
DuquesneA100.040.0360.8756.270.010.00
HowardMEAC0.040.0336.3638.97-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.040.0321.7424.60-0.02-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0329.1733.75-0.02-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0342.3146.12-0.01-0.00
NavyPat0.040.0364.0064.460.010.01
NJITASun0.040.0356.0055.640.010.00
St. John'sBE0.040.0325.0023.45-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.040.0362.5057.730.010.00
Wake ForestACC0.040.0341.6739.90-0.01-0.01