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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Northern Colorado

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:304.0
Current RPI:304
Expected SOS:252
Current SOS:252
Current Record:8-21
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-10
Current OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC RPI:341
Expected OOC SOS:233



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-21304.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Colorado.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Kansas (1.0)B12A109-72L0%0.0
11-21UMBC (335.0)AEH72-81L0%0.0
11-22Austin Peay (184.0)OVCH76-91L0%0.0
11-25Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumH85-105L0%0.0
11-29Colorado (35.0)P12A82-52L0%0.0
12-3UC Riverside (267.0)BWA77-66L0%0.0
12-13Colorado St. (181.0)MWCH73-64W100%0.0
12-16Denver (188.0)SumH77-81L0%0.0
12-21Jacksonville St. (309.0)OVCA79-76L0%0.0
12-23Mississippi St. (154.0)SECA93-69L0%0.0
12-31Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyH96-90W100%0.0
1-2Idaho (191.0)BSkyH70-75L0%0.0
1-7Idaho St. (256.0)BSkyA83-78L0%0.0
1-9Weber St. (108.0)BSkyA85-68L0%0.0
1-14Montana (145.0)BSkyH66-73L0%0.0
1-16Montana St. (260.0)BSkyH78-76W100%0.0
1-21Southern Utah (336.0)BSkyA80-90W100%0.0
1-23Northern Arizona (333.0)BSkyA79-84W100%0.0
1-30North Dakota (218.0)BSkyH71-70W100%0.0
2-4Weber St. (108.0)BSkyH54-64L0%0.0
2-6Idaho St. (256.0)BSkyH57-90L0%0.0
2-11Idaho (191.0)BSkyA73-67L0%0.0
2-13Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyA97-80L0%0.0
2-20North Dakota (218.0)BSkyA74-73L0%0.0
2-25Sacramento St. (273.0)BSkyH72-67W100%0.0
2-27Portland St. (282.0)BSkyH86-89L0%0.0
3-3Montana St. (260.0)BSkyA81-63L0%0.0
3-5Montana (145.0)BSkyA72-78W100%0.0
3-8Portland St. (282.0)BSkyN74-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Colorado's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Colorado's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Colorado.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern ColoradoBSky26.3026.3026.2826.28-12.48-12.48
North DakotaBSky4.444.4448.1548.15-0.16-0.16
Weber St.BSky4.424.4272.4172.411.981.98
MontanaBSky4.384.3862.9662.961.141.14
Portland St.BSky4.374.3733.3333.33-1.46-1.46
Eastern WashingtonBSky4.354.3550.0050.000.000.00
IdahoBSky4.334.3358.6258.620.750.75
Idaho St.BSky4.304.3044.4444.44-0.48-0.48
Montana St.BSky4.284.2842.8642.86-0.61-0.61
Sacramento St.BSky2.772.7742.8642.86-0.40-0.40
Southern UtahBSky2.682.6814.8114.81-1.89-1.89
Northern ArizonaBSky2.682.6811.1111.11-2.09-2.09
DenverSum2.012.0150.0050.000.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum1.891.8953.5753.570.140.14
KansasB121.781.7887.5087.501.341.34
Mississippi St.SEC1.781.7843.3343.33-0.24-0.24
ColoradoP121.781.7864.5264.520.520.52
Austin PeayOVC1.751.7546.8846.88-0.11-0.11
UC RiversideBW1.751.7536.6736.67-0.47-0.47
Colorado St.MWC1.751.7551.6151.610.060.06
Jacksonville St.OVC1.751.7517.8617.86-1.13-1.13
UMBCAE1.721.7219.3519.35-1.06-1.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.350.3558.0658.060.060.06
San Jose St.MWC0.310.3121.4321.43-0.18-0.18
Washington St.P120.290.2926.6726.67-0.13-0.13
PortlandWCC0.260.2635.4835.48-0.07-0.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.250.2577.4277.420.140.14
Utah ValleyWAC0.230.2333.3333.33-0.08-0.08
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.230.2372.4172.410.100.10
WyomingMWC0.230.2340.0040.00-0.05-0.05
South DakotaSum0.200.2040.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.170.1728.5728.57-0.07-0.07
Boise St.MWC0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
NevadaMWC0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
UC DavisBW0.170.1732.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Utah St.MWC0.170.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.170.1770.9770.970.070.07
Kansas St.B120.160.1651.5251.520.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.150.1528.5728.57-0.06-0.06
IUPUISum0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1421.4321.43-0.08-0.08
Murray St.OVC0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1218.5218.52-0.07-0.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1229.1729.17-0.05-0.05
WashingtonP120.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
HawaiiBW0.110.1183.3383.330.080.08
UNLVMWC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
BelmontOVC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1164.2964.290.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1160.7160.710.020.02
SamfordSC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Air ForceMWC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0979.3179.310.050.05
LamarSlnd0.090.0926.9226.92-0.04-0.04
PacificWCC0.090.0923.0823.08-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0987.1087.100.060.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0958.6258.620.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
ArizonaP120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
USCP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0811.1111.11-0.06-0.06
TroySB0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Stony BrookAE0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
Texas TechB120.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Oregon St.P120.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Iowa St.B120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
BaylorB120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
BradleyMVC0.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
WisconsinB100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
MissouriSEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
DavidsonA100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
SyracuseACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
DrakeMVC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
MississippiSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
LipscombASun0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
ButlerBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00