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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Northern Colorado

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:281.3
Current RPI:166
Expected SOS:319
Current SOS:40
Current Record:1-5
Expected Record:11-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-9
Current OOC Record:1-5
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:251
Expected OOC SOS:123



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-9148.90.08%
17-10163.40.29%
16-11179.51.12%
15-12203.82.85%
14-13223.56.26%
13-14245.211.70%
12-15265.616.32%
11-16284.618.48%
10-17300.616.79%
9-18313.712.81%
8-19323.67.74%
7-20331.23.72%
6-21337.61.39%
5-22342.80.30%
4-23345.50.11%
3-24347.50.02%
2-25349.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Colorado.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Butler (14.3)BEA89-52L0%0.0
11-19Santa Clara (246.4)WCCA88-72L0%0.0
11-21Arizona (29.2)P12A71-55L0%0.0
11-24Sacred Heart (310.2)NECN81-59W100%0.0
11-25Bucknell (94.2)PatN63-75L0%0.0
11-29Oklahoma (80.5)B12A87-66L0%0.0
12-10Colorado St. (97.3)MWCA0-010%-15.2
12-17Denver (244.4)SumA0-029%-6.8
12-20UC Riverside (301.7)BWH0-062%3.7
12-29Sacramento St. (336.4)BSkyA0-058%2.5
12-31Portland St. (282.9)BSkyA0-039%-3.4
1-5Southern Utah (327.0)BSkyH0-072%7.0
1-7Northern Arizona (342.0)BSkyH0-082%10.8
1-12Montana (241.5)BSkyA0-026%-7.8
1-14Montana St. (212.6)BSkyA0-024%-8.5
1-19Idaho St. (282.3)BSkyH0-062%3.7
1-21Weber St. (209.7)BSkyH0-040%-3.0
1-26Northern Arizona (342.0)BSkyA0-065%4.5
1-28Southern Utah (327.0)BSkyA0-053%0.8
2-4North Dakota (229.5)BSkyA0-025%-8.0
2-9Idaho (230.0)BSkyH0-048%-0.6
2-11Eastern Washington (201.0)BSkyH0-050%0.1
2-16Weber St. (209.7)BSkyA0-022%-9.2
2-18Idaho St. (282.3)BSkyA0-041%-2.6
2-25North Dakota (229.5)BSkyH0-044%-1.7
3-2Portland St. (282.9)BSkyH0-059%2.8
3-4Sacramento St. (336.4)BSkyH0-077%8.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Colorado's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Colorado's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Colorado.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern ColoradoBSky27.9226.3522.7343.09-15.23-3.64
North DakotaBSky0.004.6333.3354.80-0.000.44
Northern ArizonaBSky0.464.6211.1119.80-0.36-2.79
Sacramento St.BSky0.004.600.0021.49-0.00-2.62
Southern UtahBSky0.004.580.0024.40-0.00-2.35
Portland St.BSky0.004.5640.0043.29-0.00-0.61
Weber St.BSky0.004.5316.6748.26-0.00-0.16
Idaho St.BSky0.004.5112.5028.40-0.00-1.95
MontanaBSky0.002.8325.0047.85-0.00-0.12
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.002.8171.4355.890.000.33
Montana St.BSky0.002.7942.8655.78-0.000.32
IdahoBSky0.002.7750.0053.170.000.18
DenverSum0.002.0642.8644.74-0.00-0.22
Santa ClaraWCC9.262.0125.0030.47-4.63-0.78
UC RiversideBW0.001.940.0031.05-0.00-0.74
ArizonaP129.781.9475.0069.304.890.75
Sacred HeartNEC9.261.9150.0039.420.00-0.40
ButlerBE9.211.91100.0073.969.210.92
BucknellPat8.851.8866.6769.552.950.74
Colorado St.MWC0.001.8571.4359.030.000.33
OklahomaB128.331.8566.6746.242.78-0.14
UC DavisBW0.460.3450.0045.660.00-0.03
Washington St.P120.000.2642.8629.20-0.00-0.11
San Jose St.MWC0.460.2550.0040.690.00-0.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.460.2450.0064.910.000.07
San FranciscoWCC0.000.2385.7153.770.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.2342.8633.51-0.00-0.08
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2325.0045.82-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.2350.0046.820.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.2362.5042.780.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.2157.1459.020.000.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.2128.5733.56-0.00-0.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.2057.1457.780.000.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.2042.8650.57-0.000.00
StanfordP120.000.1966.6758.600.000.03
BYUWCC0.000.1962.5067.080.000.07
PortlandWCC0.000.1757.1450.730.000.00
ColoradoP120.000.1675.0062.450.000.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.1662.5058.130.000.03
WyomingMWC0.000.1666.6753.730.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1425.0043.29-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1325.0040.17-0.00-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.930.1344.4453.29-0.100.01
Arizona St.P120.000.1355.5637.870.00-0.03
PacificWCC0.000.1342.8645.98-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.520.1380.0058.220.310.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.1350.0056.890.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.1333.3351.57-0.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.1316.6738.83-0.00-0.03
Texas TechB120.000.1387.5061.660.000.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.120.0022.75-0.00-0.07
San DiegoWCC0.000.1237.5031.15-0.00-0.05
WashingtonP120.000.1257.1452.140.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.600.1033.3352.49-0.200.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.100.0038.43-0.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.600.1040.0054.81-0.120.01
Little RockSB0.000.1066.6761.400.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1037.5050.92-0.000.00
UCLAP120.000.10100.0086.650.000.07
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0985.7175.250.000.05
WisconsinB100.600.0977.7876.550.330.05
Kansas St.B120.000.0988.8956.710.000.01
TexasB120.000.0950.0038.730.00-0.02
XavierBE0.000.0987.5070.880.000.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.460.0985.7169.920.330.04
BryantNEC0.000.0922.2246.51-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.460.09100.0092.200.460.08
VanderbiltSEC1.400.0955.5646.770.16-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC1.400.090.0036.38-1.40-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.0937.5047.44-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.000.0942.8635.40-0.00-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0911.1149.12-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.420.0930.0045.49-0.17-0.01
USCP120.000.09100.0076.400.000.05
IowaB100.000.0744.4438.41-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0712.5034.49-0.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0762.5052.060.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0742.8641.13-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0742.8650.82-0.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.070.0033.71-0.00-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0720.0022.88-0.00-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.0733.3352.03-0.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0757.1464.540.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0757.1444.830.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0742.8658.24-0.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1448.110.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0650.0050.170.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0625.0038.98-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0050.980.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0662.5070.890.000.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0657.1443.930.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0642.8640.38-0.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0644.4451.58-0.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0685.7177.000.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0625.0023.99-0.00-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0660.0069.260.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0016.33-0.00-0.04
NorthwesternB100.520.0675.0066.090.260.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0677.7886.650.000.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0637.5037.96-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0671.4365.470.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0612.5033.31-0.00-0.02
BaylorB120.000.06100.0076.070.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.540.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.0671.4337.680.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0655.5647.600.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0642.8644.89-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0675.0071.330.000.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0045.920.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0688.8977.470.000.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0677.7864.250.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0671.4354.010.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0677.7859.940.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0089.590.000.05
Seton HallBE0.000.0675.0054.480.000.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0060.950.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0620.0035.46-0.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0084.740.000.04
West VirginiaB120.000.0685.7183.250.000.04
St. John'sBE0.000.0644.4436.20-0.00-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.0612.5028.64-0.00-0.03
ArmyPat0.000.0642.8650.29-0.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0642.8655.07-0.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0687.5064.760.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0628.5727.38-0.00-0.03
ColgatePat0.000.0612.5030.11-0.00-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.880.0662.5055.890.220.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0616.6739.99-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.0637.5061.81-0.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0662.5052.400.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0642.8645.85-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.000.0633.3338.56-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0675.0072.800.000.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0612.5026.05-0.00-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0633.3340.37-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0628.5752.65-0.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.50-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0057.950.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.29-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0023.90-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0375.0058.720.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0312.5037.11-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0362.5060.090.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0312.5030.17-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0371.4363.080.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.54-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6738.87-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0377.7871.770.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0375.0069.680.000.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0357.1453.860.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0375.0070.570.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0371.4357.210.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0342.8650.33-0.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.280.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.520.0312.5030.51-0.39-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0387.5082.440.000.02
ClemsonACC0.600.0371.4354.560.260.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0377.7872.930.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0387.5074.510.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0342.8650.98-0.000.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0375.0056.270.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.600.0320.0042.14-0.36-0.00
TulaneAmer0.600.0312.5023.82-0.45-0.02
VermontAE0.000.0362.5071.400.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0357.1429.760.00-0.01
FordhamA100.460.0350.0041.640.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.460.0322.2226.44-0.26-0.01
HofstraCAA0.460.0355.5643.870.05-0.00
La SalleA100.420.0357.1456.540.060.00
ManhattanMAAC0.420.0322.2232.01-0.23-0.01
Michigan St.B100.460.0360.0058.780.090.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0047.990.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0362.5044.840.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0050.980.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0325.0023.62-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0320.0060.00-0.000.01
RichmondA100.420.0350.0048.500.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0333.3350.05-0.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.460.0350.0066.380.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.460.0320.0035.15-0.28-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.420.0377.7855.180.230.00
YaleIvy0.000.0342.8663.63-0.000.01