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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Northern Colorado

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:286.0
Current RPI:286
Expected SOS:291
Current SOS:291
Current Record:9-18
Expected Record:9-18
Current Conf Record:7-11
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-7
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:209
Expected OOC SOS:59



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-18286.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Colorado.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Butler (15.0)BEA89-52L0%0.0
11-19Santa Clara (126.0)WCCA88-72L0%0.0
11-21Arizona (2.0)P12A71-55L0%0.0
11-24Sacred Heart (304.0)NECN81-59W100%0.0
11-25Bucknell (63.0)PatN63-75L0%0.0
11-29Oklahoma (168.0)B12A87-66L0%0.0
12-10Colorado St. (66.0)MWCA81-64L0%0.0
12-17Denver (207.0)SumA73-70L0%0.0
12-20UC Riverside (330.0)BWH77-61W100%0.0
12-29Sacramento St. (293.0)BSkyA53-69W100%0.0
12-31Portland St. (268.0)BSkyA59-73W100%0.0
1-5Southern Utah (341.0)BSkyH76-78L0%0.0
1-7Northern Arizona (335.0)BSkyH83-79W100%0.0
1-12Montana (221.0)BSkyA89-68L0%0.0
1-14Montana St. (253.0)BSkyA68-53L0%0.0
1-19Idaho St. (340.0)BSkyH69-73L0%0.0
1-21Weber St. (185.0)BSkyH69-74L0%0.0
1-26Northern Arizona (335.0)BSkyA63-50L0%0.0
1-28Southern Utah (341.0)BSkyA71-89W100%0.0
2-4North Dakota (144.0)BSkyA87-77L0%0.0
2-9Idaho (209.0)BSkyH76-88L0%0.0
2-11Eastern Washington (148.0)BSkyH44-70L0%0.0
2-16Weber St. (185.0)BSkyA69-63L0%0.0
2-18Idaho St. (340.0)BSkyA81-87W100%0.0
2-25North Dakota (144.0)BSkyH81-84L0%0.0
3-2Portland St. (268.0)BSkyH87-84W100%0.0
3-4Sacramento St. (293.0)BSkyH70-67W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Colorado's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Colorado's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Colorado.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern ColoradoBSky26.2726.2736.0036.00-7.35-7.35
North DakotaBSky4.734.7365.3865.381.461.46
Weber St.BSky4.644.6453.5753.570.330.33
Sacramento St.BSky4.634.6340.7440.74-0.86-0.86
Portland St.BSky4.634.6346.1546.15-0.36-0.36
Northern ArizonaBSky4.624.6224.1424.14-2.39-2.39
Southern UtahBSky4.614.6110.3410.34-3.66-3.66
Idaho St.BSky4.524.5210.7110.71-3.55-3.55
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.872.8763.3363.330.770.77
IdahoBSky2.812.8153.5753.570.200.20
MontanaBSky2.802.8048.3948.39-0.09-0.09
Montana St.BSky2.792.7944.8344.83-0.29-0.29
DenverSum2.042.0451.7251.720.070.07
Santa ClaraWCC2.002.0048.3948.39-0.06-0.06
UC RiversideBW1.941.9423.0823.08-1.04-1.04
ArizonaP121.941.9487.8887.881.471.47
Sacred HeartNEC1.911.9141.9441.94-0.31-0.31
ButlerBE1.911.9173.3373.330.890.89
BucknellPat1.881.8875.7675.760.970.97
Colorado St.MWC1.851.8564.5264.520.540.54
OklahomaB121.851.8533.3333.33-0.62-0.62
UC DavisBW0.310.3162.5062.500.080.08
San FranciscoWCC0.250.2561.2961.290.060.06
Washington St.P120.240.2440.0040.00-0.05-0.05
San Jose St.MWC0.240.2442.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.220.2267.8667.860.080.08
South DakotaSum0.220.2264.5264.520.060.06
PepperdineWCC0.210.2126.6726.67-0.10-0.10
Loyola MarymountWCC0.210.2148.2848.28-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.210.2134.3834.38-0.07-0.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.190.1951.7251.720.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.190.1960.7160.710.040.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.190.1942.8642.86-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.180.1866.6766.670.060.06
Utah St.MWC0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
StanfordP120.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
PortlandWCC0.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
WyomingMWC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.130.1335.7135.71-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
PacificWCC0.120.1231.2531.25-0.05-0.05
IUPUISum0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Arizona St.P120.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
Boise St.MWC0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
SeattleWAC0.120.1237.0437.04-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
WashingtonP120.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
GonzagaWCC0.110.1196.9796.970.110.11
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0936.0036.00-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Little RockSB0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
TexasB120.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0953.5753.570.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
BryantNEC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
OregonP120.080.0884.8584.850.060.06
USCP120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
ArmyPat0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
NavyPat0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0718.5218.52-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
North FloridaASun0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
NebraskaB100.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
NJITASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0629.4129.41-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
BaylorB120.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
DePaulBE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
KansasB120.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
MarquetteBE0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
NorthwesternB100.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
OaklandHorz0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
St. John'sBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0691.1891.180.050.05
West VirginiaB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0610.0010.00-0.05-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01