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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Northern Colorado

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:205.0
Current RPI:205
Expected SOS:300
Current SOS:300
Current Record:16-13
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:12-10
Expected Conf Record:12-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-7
Current OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC RPI:157
Expected OOC SOS:284



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13205.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Colorado.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Kansas St. (51.0)B12A58-60W100%0.0
11-20New Mexico St. (72.0)WACA67-63L0%0.0
11-22Colorado St. (182.0)MWCA72-65L0%0.0
11-30Bethune Cookman (343.0)MEACH65-60W100%0.0
12-1Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACH87-70W100%0.0
12-16UC Riverside (319.0)BWH63-60W100%0.0
12-22Wyoming (135.0)MWCA72-59L0%0.0
12-29North Dakota (197.0)BSkyH84-66W100%0.0
1-4Southern Utah (346.0)BSkyH91-55W100%0.0
1-9Weber St. (149.0)BSkyH70-51W100%0.0
1-11Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyH82-75W100%0.0
1-16Montana St. (275.0)BSkyA70-55L0%0.0
1-18Montana (183.0)BSkyA73-84W100%0.0
1-23Northern Arizona (247.0)BSkyH87-72W100%0.0
1-25Sacramento St. (263.0)BSkyH72-62W100%0.0
1-30Portland St. (252.0)BSkyA80-57L0%0.0
2-1Eastern Washington (228.0)BSkyA94-90L0%0.0
2-6Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyA73-70L0%0.0
2-8Weber St. (149.0)BSkyA79-65L0%0.0
2-13Montana (183.0)BSkyH89-86W100%0.0
2-15Montana St. (275.0)BSkyH83-73W100%0.0
2-20Northern Arizona (247.0)BSkyA59-74W100%0.0
2-22Sacramento St. (263.0)BSkyA79-58L0%0.0
2-27Eastern Washington (228.0)BSkyH66-80L0%0.0
3-1Portland St. (252.0)BSkyH68-77L0%0.0
3-4North Dakota (197.0)BSkyA94-90L0%0.0
3-8Southern Utah (346.0)BSkyA52-77W100%0.0
3-13Northern Arizona (247.0)BSkyN60-62W100%0.0
3-14Weber St. (149.0)BSkyA66-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Colorado's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Colorado's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Colorado.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern ColoradoBSky26.6926.6958.4158.414.494.49
Weber St.BSky6.396.3960.0060.001.281.28
Northern ArizonaBSky6.326.3250.0050.000.000.00
North DakotaBSky4.874.8748.2848.28-0.17-0.17
Portland St.BSky4.764.7648.1548.15-0.18-0.18
Sacramento St.BSky4.734.7342.3142.31-0.73-0.73
Montana St.BSky4.704.7040.7440.74-0.87-0.87
MontanaBSky4.704.7057.6957.690.720.72
Southern UtahBSky4.674.673.853.85-4.31-4.31
Eastern WashingtonBSky4.654.6540.7440.74-0.86-0.86
Idaho St.BSky4.644.6432.0032.00-1.67-1.67
Colorado St.MWC1.951.9544.8344.83-0.20-0.20
UC RiversideBW1.911.9128.5728.57-0.82-0.82
WyomingMWC1.841.8451.7251.720.060.06
New Mexico St.WAC1.811.8172.7372.730.820.82
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.811.8131.2531.25-0.68-0.68
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.801.8017.2417.24-1.18-1.18
Kansas St.B121.721.7264.5264.520.500.50
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.350.3538.7138.71-0.08-0.08
IdahoWAC0.320.3245.4545.45-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.300.3054.8454.840.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.270.2765.6265.620.080.08
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.240.2445.4545.45-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.240.2460.6160.610.050.05
HawaiiBW0.230.2362.0762.070.060.06
San Jose St.MWC0.210.2117.2417.24-0.14-0.14
UTEPCUSA0.200.2067.7467.740.070.07
Fresno St.MWC0.200.2048.3948.39-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.180.1853.1253.120.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
PortlandWCC0.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.180.1824.1424.14-0.09-0.09
UCLAP120.180.1876.4776.470.100.10
San Diego St.MWC0.180.1887.1087.100.130.13
New MexicoMWC0.170.1781.8281.820.110.11
SeattleWAC0.170.1739.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.140.1435.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.140.1462.0762.070.030.03
Texas TechB120.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.1346.1546.15-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
BYUWCC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.110.1143.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.110.1188.2488.240.080.08
DrakeMVC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
USCP120.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.080.0822.2222.22-0.05-0.05
WisconsinB100.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
GonzagaWCC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Arizona St.P120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
UtahP120.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
CaliforniaP120.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Seton HallBE0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
UICHorz0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
DenverSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0678.5778.570.030.03
OregonP120.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
PacificWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02