Northern Colorado

Conference:	BSky
Expected RPI:	257.0
Current RPI:	257
Expected SOS:	274
Current SOS:	274
Current Record:	11-18
Expected Record:	11-18
Current Conf Record:	11-11
Expected Conf Record:	11-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-8
Current OOC Record:	0-7
Expected OOC Record:	0-7
Expected OOC RPI:	324
Expected OOC SOS:	113

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-18	257.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Colorado.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-15	Cal Poly (164.0)	BW	A	64-53	L	0%
11-21	Wyoming (75.0)	MWC	H	60-69	L	0%
11-26	Colorado St. (18.0)	MWC	A	85-69	L	0%
12-1	UC Riverside (338.0)	BW	A	69-63	L	0%
12-5	Northern Iowa (83.0)	MVC	A	76-59	L	0%
12-8	Wichita St. (37.0)	MVC	A	80-54	L	0%
12-21	North Dakota (226.0)	BSky	A	66-75	W	100%
12-29	Southern Utah (314.0)	BSky	A	51-50	L	0%
1-3	Weber St. (84.0)	BSky	A	79-54	L	0%
1-5	Idaho St. (337.0)	BSky	A	86-63	L	0%
1-10	Montana St. (317.0)	BSky	H	66-69	L	0%
1-12	Montana (66.0)	BSky	H	77-85	L	0%
1-17	Portland St. (339.0)	BSky	H	67-50	W	100%
1-19	Eastern Washington (321.0)	BSky	H	72-56	W	100%
1-24	Northern Arizona (255.0)	BSky	A	67-65	L	0%
1-26	Sacramento St. (283.0)	BSky	A	79-72	L	0%
1-31	Idaho St. (337.0)	BSky	H	78-63	W	100%
2-2	Weber St. (84.0)	BSky	H	64-85	L	0%
2-7	Montana (66.0)	BSky	A	73-63	L	0%
2-9	Montana St. (317.0)	BSky	A	72-85	W	100%
2-14	Northern Arizona (255.0)	BSky	H	76-68	W	100%
2-16	Sacramento St. (283.0)	BSky	H	78-64	W	100%
2-20	North Dakota (226.0)	BSky	H	62-64	L	0%
2-23	UC Davis (234.0)	BW	A	79-78	L	0%
2-28	Eastern Washington (321.0)	BSky	A	80-88	W	100%
3-2	Portland St. (339.0)	BSky	A	75-85	W	100%
3-7	Southern Utah (314.0)	BSky	H	66-58	W	100%
3-14	Montana St. (317.0)	BSky	N	56-69	W	100%
3-15	Montana (66.0)	BSky	A	70-56	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Colorado's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Northern Colorado's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Northern Colorado.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Northern Colorado	BSky	26.69	26.69	40.80	40.80	-4.91	-4.91
Montana	BSky	6.39	6.39	76.92	76.92	3.44	3.44
Montana St.	BSky	6.30	6.30	40.00	40.00	-1.26	-1.26
Weber St.	BSky	4.84	4.84	78.57	78.57	2.77	2.77
North Dakota	BSky	4.79	4.79	46.43	46.43	-0.34	-0.34
Northern Arizona	BSky	4.74	4.74	33.33	33.33	-1.58	-1.58
Southern Utah	BSky	4.70	4.70	29.63	29.63	-1.91	-1.91
Eastern Washington	BSky	4.67	4.67	34.48	34.48	-1.45	-1.45
Sacramento St.	BSky	4.66	4.66	44.00	44.00	-0.56	-0.56
Portland St.	BSky	4.66	4.66	25.00	25.00	-2.33	-2.33
Idaho St.	BSky	4.64	4.64	14.81	14.81	-3.26	-3.26
UC Davis	BW	2.05	2.05	43.33	43.33	-0.27	-0.27
UC Riverside	BW	1.91	1.91	11.11	11.11	-1.48	-1.48
Colorado St.	MWC	1.87	1.87	73.33	73.33	0.87	0.87
Cal Poly	BW	1.87	1.87	53.57	53.57	0.13	0.13
Northern Iowa	MVC	1.83	1.83	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
Wichita St.	MVC	1.78	1.78	75.76	75.76	0.92	0.92
Wyoming	MWC	1.78	1.78	55.17	55.17	0.18	0.18
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.35	0.35	40.00	40.00	-0.07	-0.07
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.30	0.30	31.03	31.03	-0.11	-0.11
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.29	0.29	41.38	41.38	-0.05	-0.05
Hawaii	BW	0.29	0.29	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.26	0.26	53.57	53.57	0.02	0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.26	0.26	36.67	36.67	-0.07	-0.07
Portland	WCC	0.25	0.25	30.00	30.00	-0.10	-0.10
San Jose St.	WAC	0.24	0.24	28.57	28.57	-0.10	-0.10
UC Irvine	BW	0.23	0.23	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Idaho	WAC	0.23	0.23	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.22	0.22	72.73	72.73	0.10	0.10
Pacific	BW	0.21	0.21	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
Fresno St.	MWC	0.20	0.20	32.14	32.14	-0.07	-0.07
Brigham Young	WCC	0.20	0.20	64.52	64.52	0.06	0.06
Illinois St.	MVC	0.19	0.19	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.18	0.18	76.47	76.47	0.10	0.10
Long Beach St.	BW	0.18	0.18	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.16	0.16	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.15	0.15	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.15	0.15	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.15	0.15	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.15	0.15	24.14	24.14	-0.08	-0.08
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.15	0.15	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Utah St.	WAC	0.14	0.14	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Denver	WAC	0.14	0.14	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
New Mexico	MWC	0.14	0.14	85.29	85.29	0.10	0.10
Evansville	MVC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.13	0.13	79.41	79.41	0.08	0.08
Missouri St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Utah	P12	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.12	0.12	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Washington St.	P12	0.12	0.12	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.11	0.11	81.25	81.25	0.07	0.07
Boise St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	65.52	65.52	0.04	0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Utah Valley	GWC	0.11	0.11	35.71	35.71	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado	P12	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.09	0.09	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Davidson	SC	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
San Francisco	WCC	0.09	0.09	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.09	0.09	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	93.75	93.75	0.05	0.05
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Washington	P12	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01