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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


San Jose St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:278.0
Current RPI:278
Expected SOS:128
Current SOS:128
Current Record:5-24
Expected Record:5-24
Current Conf Record:1-18
Expected Conf Record:1-18
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-13
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-5
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:235
Expected OOC SOS:291



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
5-24278.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Jose St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Santa Clara (210.0)WCCA89-77L0%0.0
11-15Milwaukee (131.0)HorzN64-61L0%0.0
11-16Northern Illinois (217.0)MACA60-59L0%0.0
11-17James Madison (233.0)CAAN66-79L0%0.0
11-20Pepperdine (159.0)WCCA77-83W100%0.0
11-23Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWH81-59W100%0.0
11-27Portland (178.0)WCCA86-69L0%0.0
11-30Weber St. (149.0)BSkyA72-55L0%0.0
12-7Houston (143.0)AmerA68-72W100%0.0
12-18UC Davis (326.0)BWH89-85W100%0.0
1-1Nevada (137.0)MWCH50-62L0%0.0
1-4Utah St. (116.0)MWCA86-67L0%0.0
1-8Colorado St. (182.0)MWCH64-66L0%0.0
1-11New Mexico (12.0)MWCH65-69L0%0.0
1-15Air Force (251.0)MWCA77-62L0%0.0
1-18Wyoming (135.0)MWCA67-56L0%0.0
1-22San Diego St. (15.0)MWCH50-75L0%0.0
1-25Boise St. (82.0)MWCA76-55L0%0.0
1-29UNLV (108.0)MWCH46-70L0%0.0
2-1New Mexico (12.0)MWCA72-47L0%0.0
2-8Fresno St. (117.0)MWCA82-56L0%0.0
2-12Air Force (251.0)MWCH48-51L0%0.0
2-15Wyoming (135.0)MWCH38-46L0%0.0
2-18Nevada (137.0)MWCA64-66W100%0.0
2-25San Diego St. (15.0)MWCA90-64L0%0.0
3-1Utah St. (116.0)MWCH58-75L0%0.0
3-5Colorado St. (182.0)MWCA78-66L0%0.0
3-8Fresno St. (117.0)MWCH56-69L0%0.0
3-12Boise St. (82.0)MWCN83-52L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Jose St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Jose St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Jose St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San Jose St.MWC26.3126.3119.1519.15-16.24-16.24
New MexicoMWC4.454.4580.6580.652.732.73
Boise St.MWC4.454.4556.6756.670.590.59
Utah St.MWC4.424.4251.7251.720.150.15
San Diego St.MWC4.424.4286.2186.213.203.20
Fresno St.MWC4.404.4044.8344.83-0.46-0.46
Colorado St.MWC4.374.3742.8642.86-0.62-0.62
NevadaMWC4.374.3746.6746.67-0.29-0.29
Air ForceMWC4.364.3630.7730.77-1.68-1.68
WyomingMWC4.344.3450.0050.000.000.00
UNLVMWC2.842.8459.3859.380.530.53
UC DavisBW1.921.9225.0025.00-0.96-0.96
Santa ClaraWCC1.891.8936.6736.67-0.50-0.50
PortlandWCC1.871.8746.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Cal St. FullertonBW1.871.8736.6736.67-0.50-0.50
PepperdineWCC1.861.8648.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Weber St.BSky1.841.8459.2659.260.340.34
MilwaukeeHorz1.781.7859.3859.380.330.33
James MadisonCAA1.781.7833.3333.33-0.59-0.59
Northern IllinoisMAC1.781.7843.3343.33-0.24-0.24
HoustonAmer1.721.7253.1253.120.110.11
PacificWCC0.360.3648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.290.2927.5927.59-0.13-0.13
San DiegoWCC0.280.2846.6746.67-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.260.2666.6766.670.090.09
GonzagaWCC0.250.2581.8281.820.160.16
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.250.2567.8667.860.090.09
Cal PolyBW0.250.2536.6736.67-0.07-0.07
Saint Mary'sWCC0.250.2565.6265.620.080.08
Southern UtahBSky0.230.233.573.57-0.21-0.21
San FranciscoWCC0.220.2263.3363.330.060.06
Northern ColoradoBSky0.210.2155.1755.170.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
Portland St.BSky0.200.2051.7251.720.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.200.2043.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.200.2038.7138.71-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.180.1867.6567.650.060.06
South DakotaSum0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Montana St.BSky0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.170.1745.4545.45-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.170.1762.0762.070.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.160.1673.5373.530.080.08
DenverSum0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
SeattleWAC0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
MarquetteBE0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
IdahoWAC0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
CaliforniaP120.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
KansasB120.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1148.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.110.1177.7877.780.060.06
DetroitHorz0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1081.8281.820.070.07
North DakotaBSky0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0916.6716.67-0.06-0.06
UCLAP120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.080.0810.7110.71-0.07-0.07
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
TowsonCAA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
USCP120.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
MassachusettsA100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
DavidsonSC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
LouisvilleAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
Wright St.Horz0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
VMIBSth0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Ohio St.B100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
StanfordP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
CreightonBE0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
DelawareCAA0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
DrakeMVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
FloridaSEC0.060.0694.1294.120.050.05
HofstraCAA0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
ToledoMAC0.060.0681.2581.250.030.03
TroySB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
LehighPat0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02