San Jose St.

Conference:	WAC
Expected RPI:	280.7
Current RPI:	294
Expected SOS:	180
Current SOS:	224
Current Record:	6-16
Expected Record:	8-21
Current Conf Record:	0-8
Expected Conf Record:	1-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.53%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-6
Current OOC Record:	6-8
Expected OOC Record:	6-9
Expected OOC RPI:	255
Expected OOC SOS:	285

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-17	216.7	0.15%
11-18	233.3	1.11%
10-19	251.6	6.01%
9-20	267.0	18.10%
8-21	279.8	32.85%
7-22	290.5	29.89%
6-23	299.4	11.88%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Jose St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-12	Cal Poly (194.2)	BW	A	79-52	L	0%	0.0
11-14	UC Irvine (259.3)	BW	H	51-50	W	100%	0.0
11-16	San Francisco (154.3)	WCC	A	83-81	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Santa Clara (271.2)	WCC	A	84-58	L	0%	0.0
11-28	Montana St. (260.8)	BSky	H	70-77	L	0%	0.0
11-30	Texas San Antonio (170.6)	Slnd	H	72-66	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Weber St. (85.4)	BSky	A	91-89	L	0%	0.0
12-7	California (42.1)	P12	A	81-36	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Cal Poly (194.2)	BW	H	40-47	L	0%	0.0
12-20	UC Davis (342.3)	BW	H	79-59	W	100%	0.0
12-22	UC Riverside (255.7)	BW	A	66-64	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Coppin St. (215.7)	MEAC	N	81-66	W	100%	0.0
12-30	Seattle (290.1)	ind	A	74-84	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Hawaii (186.2)	WAC	A	82-69	L	0%	0.0
1-12	Nevada (64.1)	WAC	A	81-57	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Fresno St. (183.3)	WAC	A	82-73	L	0%	0.0
1-19	New Mexico St. (72.2)	WAC	H	63-79	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Louisiana Tech (202.9)	WAC	H	67-71	L	0%	0.0
1-23	Cal St. Bakersfield (210.7)	ind	H	78-70	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Idaho (167.7)	WAC	A	74-66	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Utah St. (132.9)	WAC	A	82-65	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Hawaii (186.2)	WAC	H	81-83	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Fresno St. (183.3)	WAC	H	0-0		33%	-4.8
2-11	Nevada (64.1)	WAC	H	0-0		21%	-8.6
2-18	Sacramento St. (304.4)	BSky	A	0-0		38%	-3.3
2-23	Louisiana Tech (202.9)	WAC	A	0-0		26%	-6.9
2-25	New Mexico St. (72.2)	WAC	A	0-0		6%	-17.3
3-1	Utah St. (132.9)	WAC	H	0-0		26%	-7.1
3-3	Idaho (167.7)	WAC	H	0-0		31%	-5.2

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Jose St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

San Jose St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against San Jose St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
San Jose St.	WAC	26.39	26.37	26.09	25.33	-12.62	-13.01
Idaho	WAC	3.03	4.32	47.62	48.94	-0.14	-0.09
Fresno St.	WAC	2.89	4.29	36.36	41.66	-0.79	-0.72
Utah St.	WAC	2.93	4.27	47.83	50.51	-0.13	0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	2.84	4.26	68.18	66.99	1.03	1.45
Nevada	WAC	2.79	4.22	80.00	75.43	1.67	2.15
Hawaii	WAC	4.91	4.19	52.63	49.41	0.26	-0.05
Louisiana Tech	WAC	2.68	4.16	40.00	40.31	-0.54	-0.81
Cal Poly	BW	4.86	3.79	45.00	53.55	-0.49	0.27
UC Davis	BW	2.76	2.16	0.00	5.50	-2.76	-1.92
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	2.69	2.15	50.00	49.72	0.00	-0.01
Seattle	ind	2.63	2.15	23.53	34.43	-1.39	-0.67
UC Riverside	BW	2.71	2.09	40.00	37.43	-0.54	-0.53
UC Irvine	BW	2.71	2.06	36.84	36.62	-0.71	-0.55
Montana St.	BSky	2.55	2.02	42.11	39.38	-0.40	-0.43
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.38	1.98	30.00	32.07	-0.15	-0.71
Weber St.	BSky	2.48	1.97	78.95	75.78	1.44	1.02
San Francisco	WCC	2.44	1.88	54.55	52.05	0.22	0.08
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	2.38	1.81	60.00	62.89	0.48	0.47
California	P12	2.39	1.79	73.91	73.78	1.14	0.85
Santa Clara	WCC	2.32	1.79	25.00	23.47	-1.16	-0.95
Coppin St.	MEAC	2.27	1.72	44.44	51.94	-0.25	0.07
Pacific	BW	0.95	0.73	35.00	37.55	-0.28	-0.18
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.53	0.52	21.05	22.46	-0.31	-0.29
Portland St.	BSky	0.39	0.42	42.86	45.93	-0.06	-0.03
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.37	0.42	55.56	58.02	0.04	0.07
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.45	0.42	40.91	44.29	-0.08	-0.05
Montana	BSky	0.27	0.41	71.43	73.99	0.12	0.20
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.47	0.40	65.00	66.71	0.14	0.13
Long Beach St.	BW	0.42	0.37	71.43	73.45	0.18	0.17
Pepperdine	WCC	0.42	0.32	31.82	33.75	-0.15	-0.10
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.16	0.32	30.00	31.40	-0.07	-0.12
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.21	0.29	13.64	16.23	-0.15	-0.20
Brigham Young	WCC	0.26	0.28	75.00	76.02	0.13	0.14
Idaho St.	BSky	0.27	0.26	31.82	32.98	-0.10	-0.09
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.36	0.24	82.61	81.43	0.24	0.15
St. Mary's	WCC	0.26	0.22	90.91	87.78	0.22	0.16
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.16	0.21	76.19	75.98	0.08	0.11
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.15	0.21	44.44	45.20	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.21	0.21	85.71	82.22	0.15	0.13
San Diego	WCC	0.21	0.19	33.33	33.82	-0.07	-0.06
Gonzaga	WCC	0.21	0.19	81.82	81.50	0.13	0.12
Portland	WCC	0.26	0.19	21.74	21.75	-0.15	-0.11
Washington St.	P12	0.21	0.19	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.01
Southern Utah	Sum	0.21	0.18	45.45	44.27	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.21	0.18	81.82	81.02	0.13	0.11
Arizona St.	P12	0.21	0.18	30.43	31.40	-0.08	-0.07
Utah	P12	0.21	0.18	18.18	15.00	-0.13	-0.13
Stanford	P12	0.21	0.18	69.57	68.33	0.08	0.07
Boise St.	MWC	0.15	0.18	42.86	41.08	-0.02	-0.03
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.21	0.18	43.48	43.27	-0.03	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.21	0.16	23.81	33.67	-0.11	-0.05
Oregon St.	P12	0.15	0.15	63.64	63.17	0.04	0.04
Southern California	P12	0.20	0.15	25.00	25.08	-0.10	-0.07
Colorado	P12	0.15	0.15	66.67	62.69	0.05	0.04
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.13	28.57	25.79	-0.02	-0.06
Utah Valley	GWC	0.17	0.13	54.55	57.71	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.13	19.05	19.39	-0.03	-0.08
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.15	0.13	59.09	57.69	0.03	0.02
Washington	P12	0.16	0.13	69.57	66.59	0.06	0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.00	0.12	27.78	29.77	-0.00	-0.05
UCLA	P12	0.16	0.12	54.55	56.78	0.01	0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.12	38.10	37.80	-0.02	-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.10	0.12	17.39	20.75	-0.07	-0.07
Oregon	P12	0.10	0.11	69.57	64.49	0.04	0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.11	0.10	56.52	53.94	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.17	0.10	31.82	34.86	-0.06	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.17	0.10	14.29	16.80	-0.12	-0.06
North Dakota	GWC	0.00	0.09	33.33	41.30	-0.00	-0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.11	0.09	76.19	70.71	0.06	0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.09	28.57	34.11	-0.05	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.11	0.09	55.00	54.45	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.09	27.78	29.51	-0.02	-0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.16	0.09	85.71	78.11	0.11	0.05
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.09	61.90	63.52	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.10	0.09	66.67	68.55	0.03	0.03
Denver	SB	0.09	0.09	70.83	72.24	0.04	0.04
Arkansas St.	SB	0.13	0.07	37.50	38.36	-0.03	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.12	0.07	34.78	37.18	-0.04	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.07	21.74	25.63	-0.03	-0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.12	0.07	69.57	70.42	0.05	0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.06	33.33	38.39	-0.02	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.06	19.05	24.60	-0.03	-0.03
Villanova	BE	0.11	0.06	45.83	45.52	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.06	54.17	47.95	0.01	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.06	24.00	24.86	-0.03	-0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.11	0.06	47.83	45.51	-0.00	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.00	0.06	79.17	80.14	0.00	0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	54.17	57.11	0.00	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.06	35.00	40.74	-0.02	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.06	35.00	39.40	-0.02	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.06	41.67	40.47	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.11	0.06	65.22	63.69	0.03	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.06	69.57	65.18	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.06	43.48	44.26	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.06	47.83	42.19	-0.00	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.06	8.70	8.99	-0.04	-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.10	0.06	52.17	58.49	0.00	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.06	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.11	0.06	26.32	29.85	-0.05	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.06	44.44	48.16	-0.01	-0.00
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	22.22	27.56	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.06	20.83	25.85	-0.03	-0.03
Drake	MVC	0.00	0.06	52.17	50.01	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	62.50	62.07	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.06	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.06	68.00	69.08	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.06	78.26	72.28	0.03	0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.06	47.62	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.06	20.83	23.73	-0.03	-0.03
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	82.61	80.50	0.03	0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.06	0.04	90.48	87.91	0.05	0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.04	81.82	76.80	0.04	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.00	0.03	36.36	40.96	-0.00	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.06	0.03	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.06	0.03	65.22	62.35	0.02	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	38.89	41.49	-0.00	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.03	69.57	61.84	0.02	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.06	0.03	78.26	74.29	0.03	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.03	42.11	45.89	-0.01	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.06	0.03	62.50	60.78	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.06	0.03	62.50	62.42	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	54.55	58.39	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.03	4.00	5.27	-0.06	-0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	34.78	38.43	-0.02	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.00	0.03	47.62	47.19	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.03	25.00	28.48	-0.03	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.03	59.09	57.27	0.01	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.03	30.43	25.84	-0.02	-0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.03	82.61	84.58	0.04	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.03	30.43	26.42	-0.02	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.03	14.29	17.12	-0.04	-0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.03	-0.01	-0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.03	54.17	54.76	0.00	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	100.00	94.58	0.05	0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	52.38	53.29	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.81	-0.00	-0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.33	10.84	-0.05	-0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	66.67	60.84	0.02	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.00	0.03	66.67	69.71	0.00	0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.58	-0.00	-0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.03	61.90	67.29	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	25.00	23.73	-0.03	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.03	47.83	42.67	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.03	80.77	80.77	0.03	0.02
Samford	SC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.20	-0.02	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.05	0.03	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.05	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	41.17	-0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	18.18	23.34	-0.03	-0.01
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.03	91.67	87.92	0.04	0.02