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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


San Jose St.

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:261.0
Current RPI:261
Expected SOS:155
Current SOS:155
Current Record:8-20
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:3-15
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-4
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:193
Expected OOC SOS:214



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-20261.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Jose St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9New Orleans (346.0)indA72-68L0%0.0
11-13Houston (197.0)CUSAH75-77L0%0.0
11-15Weber St. (84.0)BSkyH68-67W100%0.0
11-26Kansas (5.0)B12A70-57L0%0.0
12-1Montana St. (317.0)BSkyA74-82W100%0.0
12-5UC Davis (234.0)BWA64-73W100%0.0
12-8Sacramento St. (283.0)BSkyH62-57W100%0.0
12-11Santa Clara (101.0)WCCH54-75L0%0.0
12-22James Madison (182.0)CAAN77-68L0%0.0
12-29Texas St. (272.0)WACA55-72W100%0.0
12-31Texas San Antonio (260.0)WACA67-80W100%0.0
1-3Idaho (195.0)WACH55-64L0%0.0
1-5Seattle (303.0)WACH76-71W100%0.0
1-8New Orleans (346.0)indH71-64W100%0.0
1-11Utah St. (108.0)WACA66-60L0%0.0
1-17Denver (64.0)WACA73-37L0%0.0
1-19New Mexico St. (55.0)WACA70-53L0%0.0
1-24Louisiana Tech (53.0)WACH54-76L0%0.0
1-26Texas Arlington (119.0)WACH47-66L0%0.0
1-31Seattle (303.0)WACA56-48L0%0.0
2-2Idaho (195.0)WACA66-63L0%0.0
2-8Utah St. (108.0)WACH36-63L0%0.0
2-14New Mexico St. (55.0)WACH57-67L0%0.0
2-16Denver (64.0)WACH41-62L0%0.0
2-28Texas Arlington (119.0)WACA81-74L0%0.0
3-2Louisiana Tech (53.0)WACA88-61L0%0.0
3-9Texas St. (272.0)WACH67-90L0%0.0
3-12Texas San Antonio (260.0)WACN49-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Jose St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Jose St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Jose St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San Jose St.WAC26.4426.4428.5728.57-11.33-11.33
Texas St.WAC4.684.6832.2632.26-1.66-1.66
New Mexico St.WAC4.674.6767.7467.741.661.66
Texas ArlingtonWAC4.674.6756.6756.670.620.62
Utah St.WAC4.644.6464.2964.291.321.32
Texas San AntonioWAC4.614.6130.0030.00-1.85-1.85
SeattleWAC4.574.5722.2222.22-2.54-2.54
IdahoWAC4.574.5733.3333.33-1.52-1.52
Louisiana TechWAC4.554.5579.3179.312.672.67
DenverWAC4.554.5567.8667.861.621.62
New Orleansind3.573.5715.0015.00-2.50-2.50
Weber St.BSky1.981.9882.7682.761.291.29
Montana St.BSky1.971.9740.7440.74-0.37-0.37
UC DavisBW1.941.9446.6746.67-0.13-0.13
Sacramento St.BSky1.941.9446.1546.15-0.15-0.15
Santa ClaraWCC1.851.8562.0762.070.450.45
HoustonCUSA1.791.7958.6258.620.310.31
James MadisonCAA1.791.7957.5857.580.270.27
KansasB121.791.7984.8584.851.241.24
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.370.3732.2632.26-0.13-0.13
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.360.3642.8642.86-0.05-0.05
Idaho St.BSky0.310.3117.2417.24-0.20-0.20
Nicholls St.Slnd0.310.3130.0030.00-0.12-0.12
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.290.2938.4638.46-0.07-0.07
MontanaBSky0.280.2879.3179.310.160.16
Boise St.MWC0.260.2665.5265.520.080.08
Texas El PasoCUSA0.260.2656.2556.250.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.250.2543.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.250.2537.9337.93-0.06-0.06
Southern UtahBSky0.250.2531.0331.03-0.09-0.09
Northern ArizonaBSky0.250.2534.3834.38-0.08-0.08
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.250.2548.3948.39-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.220.2246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.220.2239.2939.29-0.05-0.05
Brigham YoungWCC0.200.2064.5264.520.060.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.200.2017.8617.86-0.13-0.13
Southern MississippiCUSA0.200.2071.8871.880.090.09
Portland St.BSky0.190.1923.0823.08-0.10-0.10
RiceCUSA0.170.1713.7913.79-0.12-0.12
New MexicoMWC0.170.1785.2985.290.120.12
TexasB120.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.160.1648.0048.00-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.140.1431.2531.25-0.05-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1431.2531.25-0.05-0.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
St. Mary'sWCC0.120.1281.2581.250.070.07
Utah ValleyGWC0.120.1235.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.110.1153.5753.570.010.01
Oregon St.P120.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
Georgia St.CAA0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Old DominionCAA0.110.1116.6716.67-0.07-0.07
DuquesneA100.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Washington St.P120.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
PacificBW0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
UtahP120.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSlnd0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Texas ChristianB120.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ButlerA100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
DelawareCAA0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Iowa St.B120.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Kansas St.B120.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
Texas TechB120.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
WashingtonP120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
CaliforniaP120.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.060.0693.7593.750.050.05
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
MercerASun0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
WyomingMWC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0670.3770.370.020.02
TroySB0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
St. LouisA100.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Holy CrossPat0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
North TexasSB0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
SamfordSC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CharlotteA100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
FordhamA100.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
George MasonCAA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Chicago St.GWC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0353.8553.850.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
GramblingSWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
NC GreensboroSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
TempleA100.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00