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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


San Jose St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:299.1
Current RPI:303
Expected SOS:150
Current SOS:181
Current Record:5-15
Expected Record:6-21
Current Conf Record:3-8
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-6
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:333
Expected OOC SOS:299



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-17226.70.11%
9-18246.61.24%
8-19266.96.14%
7-20286.022.79%
6-21301.640.15%
5-22314.929.56%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Jose St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Idaho (207.6)BSkyH54-74L0%0.0
11-16Montana (153.5)BSkyH64-61W100%0.0
11-20Montana St. (270.0)BSkyA81-69L0%0.0
11-25Toledo (162.3)MACN89-74L0%0.0
11-27San Diego (290.7)WCCN67-76W100%0.0
12-5Santa Clara (255.7)WCCA78-75L0%0.0
12-8Marquette (119.7)BEA80-62L0%0.0
12-13Montana St. (270.0)BSkyH83-91L0%0.0
12-20Seattle (278.5)WACA67-64L0%0.0
12-30Utah St. (154.2)MWCH71-80L0%0.0
1-2Air Force (247.0)MWCA64-57L0%0.0
1-6San Diego St. (55.3)MWCA77-62L0%0.0
1-9Colorado St. (188.2)MWCH84-85L0%0.0
1-13Wyoming (190.3)MWCH62-55W100%0.0
1-16Fresno St. (138.2)MWCA81-74L0%0.0
1-20Boise St. (79.5)MWCA94-69L0%0.0
1-23New Mexico (90.1)MWCH64-83L0%0.0
1-27Colorado St. (188.2)MWCA74-66L0%0.0
1-30Air Force (247.0)MWCH75-54W100%0.0
2-3Fresno St. (138.2)MWCH65-53W100%0.0
2-10UNLV (110.5)MWCA0-05%-17.8
2-13New Mexico (90.1)MWCA0-06%-17.1
2-17Nevada (129.7)MWCH0-032%-5.2
2-21San Diego St. (55.3)MWCH0-014%-11.8
2-27Utah St. (154.2)MWCA0-015%-11.3
3-2Wyoming (190.3)MWCA0-020%-9.1
3-5Boise St. (79.5)MWCH0-018%-10.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Jose St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Jose St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Jose St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San Jose St.MWC26.7026.4420.2419.03-15.89-16.38
WyomingMWC3.404.7342.8640.50-0.49-0.90
San Diego St.MWC3.184.6770.0069.171.271.79
Boise St.MWC3.124.6465.0064.160.941.31
Utah St.MWC3.044.6244.4445.93-0.34-0.38
New MexicoMWC2.934.6161.9061.820.701.09
Colorado St.MWC5.424.6144.4444.95-0.60-0.46
Air ForceMWC5.494.6042.1133.94-0.87-1.48
Fresno St.MWC5.354.6061.1157.831.190.72
Montana St.BSky5.243.9731.5836.87-1.93-1.04
NevadaMWC0.782.9757.8955.660.120.34
UNLVMWC0.722.8752.3856.110.030.35
MontanaBSky2.742.0858.8263.340.480.55
San DiegoWCC2.621.9835.0030.31-0.78-0.78
IdahoBSky2.691.9555.0056.440.270.25
Santa ClaraWCC2.561.9528.5729.90-1.10-0.78
MarquetteBE2.501.8563.6455.080.680.19
SeattleWAC2.501.8542.1140.52-0.39-0.35
ToledoMAC2.501.8555.0056.100.250.23
Northern ArizonaBSky0.310.335.2610.18-0.28-0.26
Northern ColoradoBSky0.370.3330.0029.98-0.15-0.13
New Mexico St.WAC0.350.3263.6468.210.100.12
Sacramento St.BSky0.380.3044.4448.52-0.04-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.370.3033.3339.27-0.12-0.06
Southern UtahBSky0.310.2915.7916.39-0.21-0.20
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.360.2665.0067.510.110.09
North DakotaBSky0.250.2644.4446.94-0.03-0.02
BYUWCC0.180.2669.5773.030.070.12
Loyola MarymountWCC0.360.2640.9140.96-0.07-0.05
PortlandWCC0.360.2637.5036.54-0.09-0.07
ArizonaP120.300.2678.2677.230.170.14
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.370.2350.0053.090.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.370.2359.0958.100.070.04
San FranciscoWCC0.310.2352.3848.890.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.360.2336.8434.20-0.09-0.07
PacificWCC0.300.2321.0524.61-0.17-0.12
Utah ValleyWAC0.250.2035.0035.36-0.07-0.06
Idaho St.BSky0.070.2042.1142.70-0.01-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.070.2068.4271.820.020.09
DenverSum0.290.1952.1748.790.01-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.250.1761.9060.410.060.03
GonzagaWCC0.240.1777.2776.130.130.09
UC IrvineBW0.180.1672.7371.670.080.07
CaliforniaP120.180.1663.6461.810.050.04
OregonP120.180.1681.8278.210.120.09
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.240.1540.9139.22-0.04-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.130.1415.0015.65-0.09-0.10
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1481.8281.010.080.08
Saint Mary'sWCC0.120.1385.0085.230.080.09
ColoradoP120.240.1372.7366.970.110.04
Long Beach St.BW0.180.1342.8651.33-0.030.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.180.1359.0959.470.030.02
BuffaloMAC0.180.1357.1457.510.030.02
USCP120.180.1278.2673.130.100.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.120.1210.0015.28-0.09-0.09
Northern IowaMVC0.180.1252.1754.140.010.01
RiceCUSA0.180.1225.0028.19-0.09-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.120.1036.8432.84-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.180.104.557.91-0.16-0.09
KansasB120.130.1080.9577.000.080.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.180.1017.3921.76-0.12-0.06
HawaiiBW0.120.1083.3380.130.080.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.120.1090.0086.120.100.07
Cal PolyBW0.130.1031.5836.16-0.05-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.180.1073.9176.040.090.05
Western MichiganMAC0.120.0935.0036.57-0.04-0.03
OaklandHorz0.180.0966.6767.310.060.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.180.0966.6760.120.060.02
Washington St.P120.120.0938.1033.45-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.060.0730.0034.84-0.03-0.02
WashingtonP120.130.0768.1862.190.050.02
DukeACC0.070.0772.7369.920.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0740.9138.03-0.01-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.0721.7424.60-0.07-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0676.1979.640.000.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.130.0633.3333.55-0.04-0.02
ArmyPat0.120.0654.5556.020.010.01
BradleyMVC0.060.068.709.77-0.05-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.0610.0014.87-0.10-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0645.4541.98-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0672.7368.010.030.02
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0652.1747.620.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0654.5555.310.010.01
Kansas St.B120.130.0659.0955.550.020.01
LamarSlnd0.130.0633.3332.69-0.04-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0647.8350.56-0.000.00
Michigan St.B100.060.0682.6181.380.040.04
Ohio St.B100.120.0658.3354.120.020.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.0625.0029.52-0.06-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.060.0663.1666.150.010.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.0675.0073.480.060.03
SyracuseACC0.120.0666.6762.710.040.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.120.0666.6765.410.040.02
The CitadelSC0.120.0635.0031.39-0.04-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.060.0647.8343.92-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.130.0623.8125.03-0.07-0.03
UtahP120.060.0672.7368.550.030.02
UTEPCUSA0.130.0650.0050.040.000.00
West VirginiaB120.060.0681.8278.720.040.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0652.1750.240.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.060.0661.9058.190.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0050.510.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0638.8943.22-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.060.0628.5728.88-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.060.0642.8637.19-0.01-0.02
ButlerBE0.050.0668.1866.490.020.02
CreightonBE0.000.0660.8759.050.000.01
DePaulBE0.050.0636.3634.95-0.01-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0656.5253.460.010.00
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0640.9143.01-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0678.2671.960.030.03
PurdueB100.060.0682.6178.230.040.03
Seton HallBE0.110.0672.7368.630.050.02
St. John'sBE0.110.0627.2724.41-0.05-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0647.6257.27-0.000.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0686.3685.330.040.04
XavierBE0.050.0690.9184.430.040.04
UABCUSA0.060.0481.8278.320.040.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0440.0049.74-0.01-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0330.0028.61-0.02-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0357.8957.330.000.00
DrakeMVC0.000.0322.7324.85-0.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.060.0314.2918.63-0.04-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0360.0054.590.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0331.8226.61-0.02-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0382.6177.370.000.02
LipscombASun0.060.0321.7427.64-0.03-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0361.9062.050.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0330.0029.46-0.02-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.034.7614.01-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.060.0340.9143.37-0.01-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0339.1339.48-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.060.0320.0023.76-0.04-0.02
UCLAP120.000.0356.5253.350.000.00
AkronMAC0.060.0381.8279.750.040.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0328.5734.73-0.03-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0355.0048.870.01-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0322.7323.37-0.03-0.02
DetroitHorz0.060.0345.0044.39-0.01-0.00
Green BayHorz0.060.0357.1457.880.010.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0366.6761.680.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0370.0068.920.020.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0326.0930.33-0.03-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0330.0032.46-0.02-0.01
OhioMAC0.060.0360.0057.960.010.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0331.8233.75-0.02-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0369.5770.030.020.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0316.6720.71-0.04-0.02
IowaB100.050.0381.8279.900.030.02
IUPUISum0.050.0341.6740.25-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0350.0056.540.000.00
LSUSEC0.050.0363.6459.440.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0336.3635.58-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0326.3227.34-0.03-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0325.0029.75-0.03-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0360.8755.900.010.00