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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


San Jose St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:327.7
Current RPI:327
Expected SOS:126
Current SOS:158
Current Record:0-9
Expected Record:2-26
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:2-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:1-8
Current OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC Record:0-10
Expected OOC RPI:349
Expected OOC SOS:248



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-20262.50.02%
7-21282.40.29%
6-22297.40.88%
5-23307.84.21%
4-24316.510.42%
3-25324.122.16%
2-26329.730.15%
1-27334.723.28%
-0-28338.88.58%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Jose St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Portland (183.7)WCCH68-73L0%0.0
11-19Pepperdine (134.6)WCCH44-63L0%0.0
11-22Cal St. Fullerton (264.4)BWA70-66L0%0.0
11-27Washington (39.9)P12N78-56L0%0.0
11-28Western Michigan (125.5)MACN60-79L0%0.0
11-30Princeton (236.6)IvyN54-69L0%0.0
12-3UC Davis (161.6)BWA70-56L0%0.0
12-6Santa Clara (197.4)WCCH50-61L0%0.0
12-13Seattle (270.8)WACH38-54L0%0.0
12-21Washington St. (210.3)P12A0-011%-14.5
12-31Utah St. (176.2)MWCA0-07%-17.6
1-3Wyoming (72.2)MWCH0-07%-17.0
1-7Air Force (109.1)MWCA0-02%-23.2
1-10UNLV (134.4)MWCA0-06%-17.8
1-14Fresno St. (258.3)MWCH0-036%-4.1
1-17Colorado St. (32.3)MWCH0-07%-17.5
1-21Boise St. (62.9)MWCA0-02%-24.4
1-28Air Force (109.1)MWCH0-011%-14.5
1-31New Mexico (109.7)MWCA0-03%-22.0
2-4Fresno St. (258.3)MWCA0-014%-12.8
2-7Nevada (283.3)MWCH0-037%-3.9
2-14Wyoming (72.2)MWCA0-01%-25.7
2-18Utah St. (176.2)MWCH0-022%-8.9
2-21San Diego St. (35.0)MWCH0-05%-19.0
2-25Colorado St. (32.3)MWCA0-01%-26.3
2-28Nevada (283.3)MWCA0-014%-12.7
3-4Boise St. (62.9)MWCH0-09%-15.6
3-7UNLV (134.4)MWCH0-022%-9.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Jose St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Jose St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Jose St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San Jose St.MWC27.9126.370.006.56-27.91-22.91
Utah St.MWC0.744.5455.5648.410.08-0.14
NevadaMWC0.254.5011.1121.21-0.20-2.59
UNLVMWC0.314.4875.0048.250.15-0.16
Fresno St.MWC0.354.4730.0026.47-0.14-2.10
Air ForceMWC0.004.4657.1459.140.000.82
Colorado St.MWC0.004.45100.0076.770.002.38
Boise St.MWC0.004.4375.0066.690.001.48
WyomingMWC0.004.4377.7871.730.001.93
San Diego St.MWC0.312.8170.0072.080.121.24
New MexicoMWC0.252.8170.0057.280.100.41
Cal St. FullertonBW6.252.0430.0036.70-2.50-0.54
UC DavisBW5.562.0483.3359.523.700.39
Santa ClaraWCC5.812.0442.8638.69-0.83-0.46
PepperdineWCC5.812.0171.4356.892.490.28
PortlandWCC5.561.9762.5046.501.39-0.14
Washington St.P120.351.9140.0026.78-0.07-0.89
WashingtonP125.901.91100.0070.855.900.80
SeattleWAC5.861.8828.5744.36-2.51-0.21
PrincetonIvy5.561.7920.0035.63-3.33-0.51
Western MichiganMAC5.561.7957.1453.310.790.12
PacificWCC0.660.4450.0038.180.00-0.10
San DiegoWCC0.950.3854.5557.300.090.06
CaliforniaP120.250.3490.0066.690.200.11
ColoradoP120.000.3166.6758.240.000.05
Cal PolyBW0.000.2842.8638.75-0.00-0.06
Long Beach St.BW0.660.2840.0050.07-0.130.00
BYUWCC0.000.2866.6767.300.000.10
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2625.0023.43-0.00-0.14
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.2671.4357.100.000.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.350.2537.5064.43-0.090.07
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.2536.3664.92-0.000.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.690.2220.0028.20-0.42-0.10
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.2210.0030.45-0.00-0.09
GonzagaWCC0.000.2290.0090.940.000.18
UtahP120.000.2177.7879.480.000.12
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1950.0053.850.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.1937.5046.78-0.00-0.01
USCP120.250.1860.0036.120.05-0.05
StanfordP120.000.1875.0057.570.000.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.350.1644.4455.75-0.040.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.400.1633.3340.31-0.13-0.03
MontanaBSky0.350.1625.0052.09-0.170.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.1642.8643.10-0.00-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.1622.2228.69-0.00-0.07
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1528.5757.26-0.000.02
Arizona St.P120.350.1560.0053.820.070.01
Oregon St.P120.310.1577.7855.460.170.02
UTEPCUSA0.560.1566.6772.670.190.07
ArizonaP120.000.15100.0080.590.000.09
HawaiiBW0.000.1366.6754.830.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.1388.8955.910.000.02
IdahoBSky0.400.1337.5049.83-0.10-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.1328.5742.17-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.1216.6727.56-0.00-0.06
DenverSum0.000.1250.0054.230.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.1214.2933.32-0.00-0.04
OregonP120.000.1266.6758.060.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1036.3644.53-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.560.1042.8642.32-0.08-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.310.100.008.88-0.31-0.08
Ball St.MAC0.000.0928.5736.95-0.00-0.02
UCLAP120.250.0972.7357.280.110.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0937.5040.20-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.0011.40-0.00-0.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0737.5041.20-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0722.2241.92-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0720.0038.24-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.0777.7868.780.000.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.790.0733.3338.99-0.26-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0755.5638.600.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0716.6730.84-0.00-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.660.0666.6777.030.220.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0616.6719.68-0.00-0.04
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0056.560.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0069.120.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0685.7170.350.000.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6745.670.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.660.0620.0019.99-0.39-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0671.4363.410.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0671.4348.860.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0625.0038.92-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0681.8264.110.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.350.0666.6757.860.120.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0650.0032.620.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0690.0067.260.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0660.0059.420.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0690.9188.390.000.05
RiderMAAC0.600.0650.0052.800.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.310.0680.0069.620.190.02
BrownIvy0.000.0640.0033.79-0.00-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0662.5064.770.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0655.5648.240.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.0644.4447.53-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0637.5038.60-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0677.7871.110.000.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0012.36-0.00-0.05
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7172.940.000.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0666.6764.310.000.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0610.0018.61-0.00-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0650.0039.340.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0640.0050.78-0.000.00
PennIvy0.000.0637.5033.00-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0670.0071.330.000.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0662.5054.970.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0033.84-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0610.0027.42-0.00-0.03
YaleIvy0.000.0672.7367.180.000.02
George MasonA100.250.0625.0025.93-0.13-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.250.0633.3354.74-0.080.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3348.89-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0642.8649.98-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0662.5071.290.000.03
KansasB120.000.0688.8969.390.000.02
MercerSC0.000.0637.5042.45-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0618.1846.16-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0074.000.000.03
South DakotaSum0.000.0627.2738.97-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0663.6455.600.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0377.7864.730.000.01
Texas St.SB0.350.0350.0050.330.000.00
FurmanSC0.400.0325.0029.59-0.20-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0375.0067.580.000.01
HowardMEAC0.350.0330.0043.91-0.14-0.00
IowaB100.350.0372.7362.590.160.01
IUPUISum0.000.0320.0026.33-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0371.4361.370.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0330.0028.50-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.350.0372.7373.150.160.01
Murray St.OVC0.310.0355.5661.790.030.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0357.1464.620.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0360.0040.620.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.350.0330.0031.57-0.14-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0342.8638.11-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.310.0350.0041.830.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.350.0362.5073.190.090.01
RichmondA100.000.0355.5657.090.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.310.030.0023.71-0.31-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.350.030.0036.67-0.35-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.350.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.250.0328.5741.17-0.11-0.01
FIUCUSA0.250.0344.4451.04-0.030.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.250.0375.0074.340.130.01
LafayettePat0.250.0375.0069.820.130.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0325.0034.77-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.0325.0042.64-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0350.0056.340.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.250.0336.3647.13-0.07-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0325.0028.68-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.250.0360.0064.620.050.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0038.000.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.250.0360.0057.600.050.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6742.100.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0017.51-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0377.7869.190.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0333.3345.28-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.0377.7867.290.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6752.340.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0316.6726.28-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.310.0320.0029.81-0.19-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0066.180.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0377.7865.390.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0387.5054.790.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0342.8637.65-0.00-0.01