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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


San Jose St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:301.0
Current RPI:301
Expected SOS:153
Current SOS:153
Current Record:6-22
Expected Record:6-22
Current Conf Record:4-15
Expected Conf Record:4-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-14
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-5
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:330
Expected OOC SOS:289



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-22301.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Jose St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Idaho (191.0)BSkyH54-74L0%0.0
11-16Montana (145.0)BSkyH64-61W100%0.0
11-20Montana St. (260.0)BSkyA81-69L0%0.0
11-25Toledo (182.0)MACN89-74L0%0.0
11-27San Diego (302.0)WCCN67-76W100%0.0
12-5Santa Clara (251.0)WCCA78-75L0%0.0
12-8Marquette (110.0)BEA80-62L0%0.0
12-13Montana St. (260.0)BSkyH83-91L0%0.0
12-20Seattle (287.0)WACA67-64L0%0.0
12-30Utah St. (151.0)MWCH71-80L0%0.0
1-2Air Force (226.0)MWCA64-57L0%0.0
1-6San Diego St. (41.0)MWCA77-62L0%0.0
1-9Colorado St. (181.0)MWCH84-85L0%0.0
1-13Wyoming (187.0)MWCH62-55W100%0.0
1-16Fresno St. (66.0)MWCA81-74L0%0.0
1-20Boise St. (101.0)MWCA94-69L0%0.0
1-23New Mexico (141.0)MWCH64-83L0%0.0
1-27Colorado St. (181.0)MWCA74-66L0%0.0
1-30Air Force (226.0)MWCH75-54W100%0.0
2-3Fresno St. (66.0)MWCH65-53W100%0.0
2-10UNLV (147.0)MWCA64-61L0%0.0
2-13New Mexico (141.0)MWCA74-58L0%0.0
2-17Nevada (118.0)MWCH55-61L0%0.0
2-21San Diego St. (41.0)MWCH56-78L0%0.0
2-27Utah St. (151.0)MWCA88-70L0%0.0
3-2Wyoming (187.0)MWCA81-78L0%0.0
3-5Boise St. (101.0)MWCH68-63W100%0.0
3-9Colorado St. (181.0)MWCN80-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Jose St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Jose St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Jose St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San Jose St.MWC26.4526.4516.9516.95-17.49-17.49
Colorado St.MWC6.296.2944.8344.83-0.65-0.65
San Diego St.MWC4.654.6570.0070.001.861.86
WyomingMWC4.624.6239.2939.29-0.99-0.99
Fresno St.MWC4.584.5873.3373.332.142.14
Utah St.MWC4.574.5744.4444.44-0.51-0.51
Boise St.MWC4.554.5560.7160.710.980.98
Air ForceMWC4.474.4739.2939.29-0.96-0.96
New MexicoMWC4.454.4550.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky3.813.8139.2939.29-0.82-0.82
NevadaMWC2.972.9755.1755.170.310.31
UNLVMWC2.882.8850.0050.000.000.00
MontanaBSky2.022.0264.2964.290.580.58
IdahoBSky1.911.9160.0060.000.380.38
San DiegoWCC1.901.9028.5728.57-0.81-0.81
Santa ClaraWCC1.881.8831.0331.03-0.71-0.71
MarquetteBE1.791.7959.3859.380.330.33
SeattleWAC1.791.7940.7440.74-0.33-0.33
ToledoMAC1.791.7950.0050.000.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.360.3641.3841.38-0.06-0.06
Northern ColoradoBSky0.320.3227.5927.59-0.14-0.14
Northern ArizonaBSky0.300.3010.7110.71-0.23-0.23
Loyola MarymountWCC0.300.3043.3343.33-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.290.2967.7467.740.100.10
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.270.2772.4172.410.120.12
BYUWCC0.270.2768.7568.750.100.10
Portland St.BSky0.270.2737.9337.93-0.06-0.06
Southern UtahBSky0.270.2714.2914.29-0.19-0.19
PortlandWCC0.260.2635.4835.48-0.08-0.08
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.240.2450.0050.000.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.240.2448.2848.28-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.230.2375.7675.760.120.12
Weber St.BSky0.210.2174.1974.190.100.10
UC DavisBW0.210.2132.1432.14-0.08-0.08
PepperdineWCC0.210.2156.6756.670.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.210.2148.2848.28-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.210.2123.0823.08-0.11-0.11
Utah ValleyWAC0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Idaho St.BSky0.180.1848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.180.1851.6151.610.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.160.1618.5218.52-0.10-0.10
GonzagaWCC0.150.1578.1278.120.090.09
North Dakota St.Sum0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
CaliforniaP120.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.140.1481.8281.820.090.09
ColoradoP120.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Long Beach St.BW0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.120.1283.8783.870.080.08
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1279.3179.310.070.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
USCP120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
OaklandHorz0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
RiceCUSA0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0922.8622.86-0.05-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.090.093.453.45-0.08-0.08
HawaiiBW0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0958.6258.620.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
Cal PolyBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Washington St.P120.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
St. John'sBE0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
XavierBE0.080.0884.3884.380.060.06
UMKCWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
BradleyMVC0.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
HoustonAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Michigan St.B100.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
Ohio St.B100.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
SyracuseACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
UtahP120.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
West VirginiaB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
ButlerBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MaineAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01