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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


San Jose St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:192.3
Current RPI:128
Expected SOS:111
Current SOS:108
Current Record:3-3
Expected Record:11-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-3
Current OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:198
Expected OOC SOS:263



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-854.00.02%
18-972.00.08%
17-1085.20.34%
16-11101.81.10%
15-12117.33.30%
14-13134.66.65%
13-14153.911.87%
12-15173.317.55%
11-16192.818.43%
10-17212.716.77%
9-18231.412.89%
8-19249.27.05%
7-20267.42.79%
6-21280.80.97%
5-22298.20.15%
4-23299.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Jose St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Portland (141.2)WCCH66-79L0%0.0
11-17Denver (244.4)SumH69-74L0%0.0
11-22Saint Mary's (16.1)WCCA81-64L0%0.0
11-27Washington St. (227.6)P12A76-88W100%0.0
11-29Idaho (230.0)BSkyA49-58W100%0.0
12-3Santa Clara (246.4)WCCH55-40W100%0.0
12-7Montana (241.5)BSkyA0-043%-2.0
12-18Bowling Green (237.3)MACH0-064%4.3
12-21Southern Utah (327.0)BSkyH0-086%12.8
12-28Nevada (46.2)MWCA0-013%-13.7
1-4Colorado St. (97.3)MWCH0-040%-3.2
1-7Fresno St. (172.2)MWCH0-054%1.1
1-10San Diego St. (63.7)MWCA0-013%-13.6
1-14Air Force (168.0)MWCA0-032%-5.7
1-18Wyoming (151.4)MWCH0-050%0.1
1-21Boise St. (108.9)MWCH0-039%-3.4
1-25Colorado St. (97.3)MWCA0-022%-9.4
1-28UNLV (195.9)MWCH0-056%1.7
2-4New Mexico (89.1)MWCA0-020%-10.0
2-7San Diego St. (63.7)MWCH0-027%-7.3
2-11UNLV (195.9)MWCA0-035%-4.6
2-15Fresno St. (172.2)MWCA0-034%-5.1
2-18Air Force (168.0)MWCH0-052%0.5
2-22Utah St. (118.1)MWCH0-043%-2.2
2-25Boise St. (108.9)MWCA0-021%-9.7
3-1Nevada (46.2)MWCH0-027%-7.5
3-4Wyoming (151.4)MWCA0-030%-6.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Jose St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Jose St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Jose St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San Jose St.MWC28.6426.3750.0039.560.00-5.51
WyomingMWC0.604.6966.6753.270.200.31
Air ForceMWC0.004.6657.1447.350.00-0.25
NevadaMWC0.694.6477.7871.180.391.96
UNLVMWC0.004.6462.5041.960.00-0.75
Fresno St.MWC0.004.6357.1442.980.00-0.65
Boise St.MWC0.004.6350.0055.910.000.55
Colorado St.MWC0.004.6071.4359.400.000.87
San Diego St.MWC0.004.5960.0068.410.001.69
New MexicoMWC0.002.8862.5057.390.000.43
Utah St.MWC0.002.8742.8650.32-0.000.02
MontanaBSky0.602.1225.0048.43-0.30-0.07
PortlandWCC8.332.0450.0049.030.00-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC8.332.04100.0089.228.331.60
Southern UtahBSky0.002.010.0025.70-0.00-0.98
Santa ClaraWCC8.332.0137.5033.92-2.08-0.65
IdahoBSky8.332.0160.0055.171.670.21
DenverSum8.331.9833.3343.71-2.78-0.25
Washington St.P128.331.9550.0030.240.00-0.77
Bowling GreenMAC0.001.8525.0040.95-0.00-0.34
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.4125.0045.82-0.00-0.03
PacificWCC0.000.3842.8645.98-0.00-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.000.2912.5029.77-0.00-0.12
GonzagaWCC0.000.26100.0092.200.000.22
San DiegoWCC0.000.2637.5031.15-0.00-0.10
Northern ColoradoBSky0.460.2516.6740.32-0.31-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.460.2511.1120.27-0.36-0.15
OregonP120.000.2575.0072.800.000.11
Weber St.BSky0.600.2316.6749.78-0.40-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.600.2271.4355.680.260.03
ColoradoP120.600.2275.0062.450.300.06
Sacramento St.BSky0.600.220.0022.30-0.60-0.12
BYUWCC0.000.2262.5067.080.000.08
PepperdineWCC0.000.2242.8633.51-0.00-0.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.690.2025.0040.17-0.35-0.04
Arizona St.P120.000.1955.5637.870.00-0.05
Montana St.BSky0.600.1942.8656.48-0.090.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1975.0069.680.000.07
Portland St.BSky0.000.1940.0043.88-0.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.1925.0023.62-0.00-0.10
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1985.7153.770.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.600.180.0031.31-0.60-0.07
CaliforniaP120.000.1787.5064.760.000.05
StanfordP120.690.1666.6758.600.230.03
UC IrvineBW0.460.1644.4453.29-0.050.01
South DakotaSum0.000.1650.0046.820.00-0.01
UC DavisBW1.160.1350.0045.660.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.1333.3355.64-0.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.1371.4368.930.000.05
ArizonaP120.460.1377.7870.290.260.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.600.1325.0043.29-0.30-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.1257.1452.140.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1228.5733.56-0.00-0.04
OaklandHorz0.000.1285.7177.000.000.07
BuffaloMAC0.000.1233.3352.03-0.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.1257.1464.540.000.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.600.1071.4358.830.260.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.690.1012.5033.18-0.52-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC1.190.1057.1457.780.170.02
IUPUISum0.000.1033.3351.57-0.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.600.1062.5060.090.150.02
Kansas St.B120.000.1088.8956.710.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0950.0045.130.00-0.01
UCLAP120.600.09100.0086.650.600.07
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0916.6735.90-0.00-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.090.0022.75-0.00-0.05
USCP120.000.09100.0076.400.000.05
Ball St.MAC0.000.0950.0050.170.000.00
DaytonA101.290.0971.4373.270.550.04
South AlabamaSB0.000.0971.4357.210.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0937.5035.03-0.00-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0712.5033.31-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0742.8658.24-0.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.070.0019.08-0.00-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0720.0017.37-0.00-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.000.0742.8641.13-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0750.0064.910.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0728.5730.43-0.00-0.03
DePaulBE0.000.0771.4337.680.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.070.0020.21-0.00-0.04
LamarSlnd0.000.0742.8640.38-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0777.7864.250.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0733.3352.49-0.000.00
TroySB0.000.0742.8636.07-0.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0725.0029.90-0.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.690.0742.8645.50-0.10-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.600.0640.0041.72-0.12-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.29-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.0642.8650.29-0.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0666.6761.690.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0670.0050.010.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0022.47-0.00-0.04
Fort WayneSum0.000.0662.5070.890.000.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0038.43-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.54-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0675.0047.520.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0660.0058.900.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0637.5050.92-0.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1459.020.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0628.5724.39-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0666.6766.650.000.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0642.8650.33-0.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.0625.0026.46-0.00-0.03
UtahP120.000.0680.0058.220.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0016.33-0.00-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0677.7886.650.000.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0023.90-0.00-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7175.250.000.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0657.1454.200.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0637.5028.47-0.00-0.03
OhioMAC0.000.0683.3371.500.000.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0637.5047.57-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0637.5025.74-0.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.0690.0080.060.000.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0625.0042.78-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0688.8977.470.000.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0657.1449.420.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.06100.0060.950.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0642.8653.80-0.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0033.71-0.00-0.02
Little RockSB0.690.0366.6761.400.230.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.690.0350.0057.950.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0342.8650.98-0.000.00
NJITASun0.000.0344.4451.58-0.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0377.7877.640.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5061.660.000.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0325.0038.98-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.600.03100.0076.540.600.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0325.0023.99-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0316.6738.83-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0026.22-0.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0371.4365.470.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0360.0062.420.000.01
UABCUSA0.690.0350.0059.840.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0362.5067.590.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0340.0054.81-0.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0013.32-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0375.0058.720.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0387.5082.440.000.02
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0056.080.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0337.5048.85-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.78-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0360.0067.820.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0325.0041.19-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0060.950.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0036.38-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.460.0344.4438.15-0.05-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.460.0385.7169.920.330.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0355.5649.660.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.600.0320.0022.88-0.36-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0320.0035.46-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.460.0355.5646.770.05-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.500.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0337.5037.96-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0047.990.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0050.980.000.00