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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


San Jose St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:191.0
Current RPI:191
Expected SOS:121
Current SOS:121
Current Record:12-16
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-3
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:182
Expected OOC SOS:253



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-16191.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Jose St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Portland (233.0)WCCH66-79L0%0.0
11-17Denver (207.0)SumH69-74L0%0.0
11-22Saint Mary's (17.0)WCCA81-64L0%0.0
11-27Washington St. (159.0)P12A76-88W100%0.0
11-29Idaho (209.0)BSkyA49-58W100%0.0
12-3Santa Clara (126.0)WCCH55-40W100%0.0
12-7Montana (221.0)BSkyA81-62L0%0.0
12-18Bowling Green (225.0)MACH77-76W100%0.0
12-21Southern Utah (341.0)BSkyH92-82W100%0.0
12-28Nevada (29.0)MWCA80-55L0%0.0
1-4Colorado St. (66.0)MWCH71-76L0%0.0
1-7Fresno St. (76.0)MWCH69-62W100%0.0
1-10San Diego St. (98.0)MWCA76-61L0%0.0
1-14Air Force (250.0)MWCA85-89W100%0.0
1-18Wyoming (152.0)MWCH70-80L0%0.0
1-21Boise St. (72.0)MWCH65-75L0%0.0
1-25Colorado St. (66.0)MWCA81-72L0%0.0
1-28UNLV (242.0)MWCH76-72W100%0.0
2-4New Mexico (86.0)MWCA68-78W100%0.0
2-7San Diego St. (98.0)MWCH76-71W100%0.0
2-11UNLV (242.0)MWCA74-76W100%0.0
2-15Fresno St. (76.0)MWCA77-59L0%0.0
2-18Air Force (250.0)MWCH83-78W100%0.0
2-22Utah St. (181.0)MWCH75-81L0%0.0
2-25Boise St. (72.0)MWCA85-78L0%0.0
3-1Nevada (29.0)MWCH67-82L0%0.0
3-4Wyoming (152.0)MWCA74-62L0%0.0
3-8Utah St. (181.0)MWCN90-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Jose St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Jose St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Jose St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San Jose St.MWC26.3226.3241.7941.79-4.32-4.32
NevadaMWC4.654.6581.2581.252.902.90
Air ForceMWC4.614.6134.4834.48-1.43-1.43
Colorado St.MWC4.614.6163.3363.331.231.23
San Diego St.MWC4.604.6056.6756.670.610.61
WyomingMWC4.584.5850.0050.000.000.00
Utah St.MWC4.544.5439.2939.29-0.97-0.97
UNLVMWC4.524.5236.6736.67-1.20-1.20
Fresno St.MWC4.514.5160.7160.710.970.97
Boise St.MWC4.494.4959.2659.260.830.83
New MexicoMWC2.822.8256.6756.670.380.38
MontanaBSky2.062.0648.3948.39-0.07-0.07
Saint Mary'sWCC1.981.9887.1087.101.471.47
IdahoBSky1.961.9657.1457.140.280.28
Southern UtahBSky1.931.9313.3313.33-1.42-1.42
Santa ClaraWCC1.931.9351.6151.610.060.06
PortlandWCC1.931.9326.6726.67-0.90-0.90
DenverSum1.901.9051.7251.720.070.07
Washington St.P121.871.8741.3841.38-0.32-0.32
Bowling GreenMAC1.791.7940.0040.00-0.36-0.36
Loyola MarymountWCC0.370.3748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.340.3431.2531.25-0.13-0.13
Idaho St.BSky0.300.3013.3313.33-0.22-0.22
GonzagaWCC0.280.2896.9796.970.260.26
Weber St.BSky0.260.2656.6756.670.040.04
BYUWCC0.260.2666.6766.670.090.09
San DiegoWCC0.250.2540.0040.00-0.05-0.05
San FranciscoWCC0.250.2561.2961.290.060.06
OregonP120.230.2384.8584.850.160.16
ColoradoP120.230.2356.2556.250.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.230.2325.8125.81-0.11-0.11
Northern ColoradoBSky0.230.2333.3333.33-0.08-0.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.210.2150.0050.000.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.200.2064.5264.520.060.06
Montana St.BSky0.200.2046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.200.2037.9337.93-0.05-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.200.2026.6726.67-0.09-0.09
Portland St.BSky0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.170.1745.4545.45-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.170.1783.3383.330.110.11
Oregon St.P120.170.1712.9012.90-0.13-0.13
UC RiversideBW0.170.1722.2222.22-0.09-0.09
UC IrvineBW0.170.1757.5857.580.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.150.1567.8667.860.050.05
USCP120.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
CaliforniaP120.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
South DakotaSum0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
StanfordP120.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.120.1235.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
ArizonaP120.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
AkronMAC0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
WashingtonP120.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
IonaMAAC0.110.1164.7164.710.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
IUPUISum0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
ToledoMAC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Kansas St.B120.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
SMUAmer0.060.0688.2488.240.050.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
CornellIvy0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
MarquetteBE0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
NJITASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Texas TechB120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
TroySB0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
UtahP120.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
ArmyPat0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
OhioMAC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
StetsonASun0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
DukeACC0.060.0677.1477.140.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0632.0032.00-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0329.4129.41-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00