San Jose St.

Conference:	WAC
Expected RPI:	261.0
Current RPI:	261
Expected SOS:	155
Current SOS:	155
Current Record:	8-20
Expected Record:	8-20
Current Conf Record:	3-15
Expected Conf Record:	3-15
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-4
Current OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC RPI:	193
Expected OOC SOS:	214

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-20	261.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Jose St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	New Orleans (346.0)	ind	A	72-68	L	0%
11-13	Houston (197.0)	CUSA	H	75-77	L	0%
11-15	Weber St. (84.0)	BSky	H	68-67	W	100%
11-26	Kansas (5.0)	B12	A	70-57	L	0%
12-1	Montana St. (317.0)	BSky	A	74-82	W	100%
12-5	UC Davis (234.0)	BW	A	64-73	W	100%
12-8	Sacramento St. (283.0)	BSky	H	62-57	W	100%
12-11	Santa Clara (101.0)	WCC	H	54-75	L	0%
12-22	James Madison (182.0)	CAA	N	77-68	L	0%
12-29	Texas St. (272.0)	WAC	A	55-72	W	100%
12-31	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	A	67-80	W	100%
1-3	Idaho (195.0)	WAC	H	55-64	L	0%
1-5	Seattle (303.0)	WAC	H	76-71	W	100%
1-8	New Orleans (346.0)	ind	H	71-64	W	100%
1-11	Utah St. (108.0)	WAC	A	66-60	L	0%
1-17	Denver (64.0)	WAC	A	73-37	L	0%
1-19	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	A	70-53	L	0%
1-24	Louisiana Tech (53.0)	WAC	H	54-76	L	0%
1-26	Texas Arlington (119.0)	WAC	H	47-66	L	0%
1-31	Seattle (303.0)	WAC	A	56-48	L	0%
2-2	Idaho (195.0)	WAC	A	66-63	L	0%
2-8	Utah St. (108.0)	WAC	H	36-63	L	0%
2-14	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	H	57-67	L	0%
2-16	Denver (64.0)	WAC	H	41-62	L	0%
2-28	Texas Arlington (119.0)	WAC	A	81-74	L	0%
3-2	Louisiana Tech (53.0)	WAC	A	88-61	L	0%
3-9	Texas St. (272.0)	WAC	H	67-90	L	0%
3-12	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	N	49-67	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Jose St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

San Jose St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against San Jose St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
San Jose St.	WAC	26.44	26.44	28.57	28.57	-11.33	-11.33
Texas St.	WAC	4.68	4.68	32.26	32.26	-1.66	-1.66
New Mexico St.	WAC	4.67	4.67	67.74	67.74	1.66	1.66
Texas Arlington	WAC	4.67	4.67	56.67	56.67	0.62	0.62
Utah St.	WAC	4.64	4.64	64.29	64.29	1.32	1.32
Texas San Antonio	WAC	4.61	4.61	30.00	30.00	-1.85	-1.85
Seattle	WAC	4.57	4.57	22.22	22.22	-2.54	-2.54
Idaho	WAC	4.57	4.57	33.33	33.33	-1.52	-1.52
Louisiana Tech	WAC	4.55	4.55	79.31	79.31	2.67	2.67
Denver	WAC	4.55	4.55	67.86	67.86	1.62	1.62
New Orleans	ind	3.57	3.57	15.00	15.00	-2.50	-2.50
Weber St.	BSky	1.98	1.98	82.76	82.76	1.29	1.29
Montana St.	BSky	1.97	1.97	40.74	40.74	-0.37	-0.37
UC Davis	BW	1.94	1.94	46.67	46.67	-0.13	-0.13
Sacramento St.	BSky	1.94	1.94	46.15	46.15	-0.15	-0.15
Santa Clara	WCC	1.85	1.85	62.07	62.07	0.45	0.45
Houston	CUSA	1.79	1.79	58.62	58.62	0.31	0.31
James Madison	CAA	1.79	1.79	57.58	57.58	0.27	0.27
Kansas	B12	1.79	1.79	84.85	84.85	1.24	1.24
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.37	0.37	32.26	32.26	-0.13	-0.13
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.36	0.36	42.86	42.86	-0.05	-0.05
Idaho St.	BSky	0.31	0.31	17.24	17.24	-0.20	-0.20
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.31	0.31	30.00	30.00	-0.12	-0.12
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.29	0.29	38.46	38.46	-0.07	-0.07
Montana	BSky	0.28	0.28	79.31	79.31	0.16	0.16
Boise St.	MWC	0.26	0.26	65.52	65.52	0.08	0.08
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.26	0.26	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.25	0.25	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.25	0.25	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Southern Utah	BSky	0.25	0.25	31.03	31.03	-0.09	-0.09
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.25	0.25	34.38	34.38	-0.08	-0.08
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.25	0.25	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.22	0.22	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.22	0.22	39.29	39.29	-0.05	-0.05
Brigham Young	WCC	0.20	0.20	64.52	64.52	0.06	0.06
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.20	0.20	17.86	17.86	-0.13	-0.13
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.20	0.20	71.88	71.88	0.09	0.09
Portland St.	BSky	0.19	0.19	23.08	23.08	-0.10	-0.10
Rice	CUSA	0.17	0.17	13.79	13.79	-0.12	-0.12
New Mexico	MWC	0.17	0.17	85.29	85.29	0.12	0.12
Texas	B12	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.16	0.16	48.00	48.00	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.15	0.15	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.14	0.14	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
UC Irvine	BW	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.14	0.14	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.14	0.14	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.12	0.12	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
St. Mary's	WCC	0.12	0.12	81.25	81.25	0.07	0.07
Utah Valley	GWC	0.12	0.12	35.71	35.71	-0.03	-0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.12	0.12	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
UC Riverside	BW	0.11	0.11	14.29	14.29	-0.08	-0.08
Georgia St.	CAA	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.11	0.11	16.67	16.67	-0.07	-0.07
Duquesne	A10	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Pepperdine	WCC	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Washington St.	P12	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Pacific	BW	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Christian	B12	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Butler	A10	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Delaware	CAA	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	93.75	93.75	0.05	0.05
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.06	0.06	14.81	14.81	-0.04	-0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Holy Cross	Pat	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Texas	SB	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	-0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00