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Through games of Nov 20, 2014.


San Jose St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:296.4
Current RPI:293
Expected SOS:124
Current SOS:246
Current Record:0-2
Expected Record:5-21
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-4
Current OOC Record:0-2
Expected OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC RPI:344
Expected OOC SOS:274



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-13151.00.01%
12-14168.60.11%
11-15189.90.35%
10-16209.01.08%
9-17229.32.85%
8-18250.86.34%
7-19269.311.60%
6-20286.217.40%
5-21301.220.37%
4-22314.518.46%
3-23324.713.11%
2-24332.96.18%
1-25338.61.81%
0-26342.50.32%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Jose St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Portland (159.0)WCCH68-73L0%0.0
11-19Pepperdine (148.9)WCCH44-63L0%0.0
11-22Cal St. Fullerton (260.4)BWA0-028%-7.0
11-27Washington (108.8)P12N0-013%-13.6
12-3UC Davis (270.6)BWA0-031%-6.0
12-6Santa Clara (151.2)WCCH0-029%-6.5
12-13Seattle (221.8)WACH0-044%-1.9
12-21Washington St. (201.3)P12A0-019%-10.5
12-31Utah St. (104.7)MWCA0-010%-15.3
1-3Wyoming (135.5)MWCH0-028%-6.9
1-7Air Force (200.2)MWCA0-019%-10.4
1-10UNLV (94.4)MWCA0-09%-15.9
1-14Fresno St. (214.8)MWCH0-044%-1.8
1-17Colorado St. (66.8)MWCH0-020%-10.2
1-21Boise St. (58.9)MWCA0-06%-18.4
1-28Air Force (200.2)MWCH0-039%-3.2
1-31New Mexico (95.9)MWCA0-08%-17.0
2-4Fresno St. (214.8)MWCA0-023%-9.0
2-7Nevada (148.5)MWCH0-030%-6.3
2-14Wyoming (135.5)MWCA0-012%-14.1
2-18Utah St. (104.7)MWCH0-025%-8.1
2-21San Diego St. (25.6)MWCH0-08%-16.7
2-25Colorado St. (66.8)MWCA0-07%-17.3
2-28Nevada (148.5)MWCA0-013%-13.4
3-4Boise St. (58.9)MWCH0-017%-11.3
3-7UNLV (94.4)MWCH0-023%-8.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Jose St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Jose St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Jose St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San Jose St.MWC43.7526.450.0018.02-43.75-16.92
Utah St.MWC0.004.93100.0062.300.001.21
NevadaMWC0.004.87100.0049.310.00-0.07
UNLVMWC0.004.85100.0055.120.000.50
Air ForceMWC0.004.8450.0042.690.00-0.71
Fresno St.MWC6.254.840.0029.27-6.25-2.01
Colorado St.MWC0.004.82100.0060.420.001.00
WyomingMWC0.004.82100.0053.470.000.33
Boise St.MWC0.004.81100.0063.940.001.34
San Diego St.MWC0.003.07100.0079.600.001.81
New MexicoMWC0.003.0666.6760.090.000.62
Cal St. FullertonBW0.002.210.0038.24-0.00-0.52
UC DavisBW0.002.20100.0042.540.00-0.33
Santa ClaraWCC0.002.1950.0046.430.00-0.16
PepperdineWCC25.002.17100.0049.0725.00-0.04
PortlandWCC25.002.130.0048.07-25.00-0.08
Washington St.P120.002.060.0030.81-0.00-0.79
WashingtonP120.002.06100.0054.920.000.20
SeattleWAC0.002.0350.0053.760.000.15
PacificWCC0.000.3950.0030.220.00-0.15
CaliforniaP120.000.35100.0078.150.000.20
ColoradoP120.000.34100.0068.310.000.13
Cal PolyBW0.000.320.0034.75-0.00-0.10
San DiegoWCC0.000.3166.6749.560.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.31100.0068.310.000.11
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2833.3328.73-0.00-0.12
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.28100.0071.430.000.12
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.2833.3364.95-0.000.08
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.250.0030.93-0.00-0.09
Long Beach St.BW0.000.250.0046.51-0.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.25100.0087.640.000.18
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.2433.3345.60-0.00-0.02
UtahP120.000.2450.0063.450.000.06
San FranciscoWCC0.000.21100.0060.870.000.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.210.0055.17-0.000.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.2150.0064.340.000.06
StanfordP120.000.20100.0059.450.000.04
USCP120.000.2033.3326.65-0.00-0.09
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1850.0035.720.00-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1850.0043.010.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.170.0049.48-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.170.0028.57-0.00-0.07
Oregon St.P120.000.17100.0044.490.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.170.0047.69-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.17100.0061.570.000.04
Montana St.BSky0.000.170.0023.81-0.00-0.09
Texas TechB120.000.1450.0045.040.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.1450.0047.210.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.1466.6748.810.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.14100.0064.920.000.04
ArizonaP120.000.13100.0070.580.000.06
DenverSum0.000.1350.0062.850.000.03
Idaho St.BSky0.000.130.0033.58-0.00-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.000.130.0024.28-0.00-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1133.3350.61-0.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.110.0021.31-0.00-0.06
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.1050.0046.970.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.10100.0072.220.000.05
UCLAP120.000.10100.0064.410.000.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.0026.57-0.00-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.07100.0041.770.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.07100.0055.750.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.07100.0028.940.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0750.0059.510.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.07100.0059.190.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0733.3334.62-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.07100.0058.890.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.070.0034.11-0.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.07100.0063.340.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.070.0027.60-0.00-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0733.3351.93-0.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.070.0027.81-0.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.070.0031.05-0.00-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.07100.0059.250.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.070.0060.93-0.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.07100.0065.680.000.02
MercerSC0.000.0750.0053.990.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.07100.0056.370.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.07100.0061.120.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0750.0052.080.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.07100.0081.830.000.04
AlbanyAE0.000.0750.0064.020.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0019.35-0.00-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.000.070.0051.35-0.000.00
KansasB120.000.0750.0060.040.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.07100.0036.790.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.070.0058.61-0.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.070.0060.94-0.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0733.3369.45-0.000.03
South DakotaSum0.000.070.0035.01-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.070.0049.36-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.070.0044.87-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.070.0031.63-0.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.070.0059.82-0.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0450.0066.390.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0450.0062.330.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.04100.0068.990.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0450.0043.860.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.04100.0055.450.000.00
FurmanSC0.000.0450.0024.870.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.030.0036.23-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6741.230.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0021.38-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0065.830.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0029.13-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0032.81-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0366.6773.790.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0333.3328.81-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.03100.0051.730.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0071.690.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0350.0058.400.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.03100.0051.640.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0350.0061.220.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0033.78-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0039.05-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0028.74-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0350.0063.340.000.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0054.380.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0350.0035.370.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.030.0029.13-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.03100.0044.790.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.030.0053.19-0.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.03100.0050.460.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0350.0053.110.000.00