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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


San Jose St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:336.0
Current RPI:336
Expected SOS:123
Current SOS:123
Current Record:0-28
Expected Record:0-28
Current Conf Record:0-18
Expected Conf Record:0-18
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-13
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:0-7
Current OOC Record:0-10
Expected OOC Record:0-10
Expected OOC RPI:344
Expected OOC SOS:218



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
0-28336.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Jose St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Portland (149.0)WCCH68-73L0%0.0
11-19Pepperdine (134.0)WCCH44-63L0%0.0
11-22Cal St. Fullerton (314.0)BWA70-66L0%0.0
11-27Washington (126.0)P12N78-56L0%0.0
11-28Western Michigan (119.0)MACN60-79L0%0.0
11-30Princeton (191.0)IvyN54-69L0%0.0
12-3UC Davis (75.0)BWA70-56L0%0.0
12-6Santa Clara (202.0)WCCH50-61L0%0.0
12-13Seattle (280.0)WACH38-54L0%0.0
12-21Washington St. (169.0)P12A82-53L0%0.0
12-31Utah St. (143.0)MWCA61-33L0%0.0
1-3Wyoming (71.0)MWCH59-64L0%0.0
1-7Air Force (240.0)MWCA78-56L0%0.0
1-10UNLV (114.0)MWCA74-40L0%0.0
1-14Fresno St. (182.0)MWCH62-73L0%0.0
1-17Colorado St. (29.0)MWCH41-70L0%0.0
1-21Boise St. (40.0)MWCA86-36L0%0.0
1-28Air Force (240.0)MWCH52-66L0%0.0
1-31New Mexico (172.0)MWCA67-41L0%0.0
2-4Fresno St. (182.0)MWCA81-63L0%0.0
2-7Nevada (306.0)MWCH57-60L0%0.0
2-14Wyoming (71.0)MWCA77-60L0%0.0
2-18Utah St. (143.0)MWCH54-76L0%0.0
2-21San Diego St. (26.0)MWCH56-74L0%0.0
2-25Colorado St. (29.0)MWCA72-56L0%0.0
2-28Nevada (306.0)MWCA62-51L0%0.0
3-4Boise St. (40.0)MWCH51-68L0%0.0
3-7UNLV (114.0)MWCH58-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Jose St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Jose St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Jose St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San Jose St.MWC26.2926.290.000.00-26.29-26.29
Utah St.MWC4.534.5353.5753.570.320.32
WyomingMWC4.534.5370.0070.001.811.81
UNLVMWC4.514.5150.0050.000.000.00
Boise St.MWC4.504.5072.4172.412.022.02
Air ForceMWC4.504.5037.0437.04-1.17-1.17
NevadaMWC4.494.4918.5218.52-2.83-2.83
Colorado St.MWC4.484.4880.0080.002.692.69
Fresno St.MWC4.474.4739.2939.29-0.96-0.96
San Diego St.MWC2.912.9175.0075.001.461.46
New MexicoMWC2.812.8146.6746.67-0.19-0.19
Cal St. FullertonBW2.032.0321.4321.43-1.16-1.16
UC DavisBW2.032.0378.5778.571.161.16
Santa ClaraWCC2.022.0237.9337.93-0.49-0.49
PepperdineWCC2.002.0055.1755.170.210.21
PortlandWCC1.961.9648.2848.28-0.07-0.07
Washington St.P121.901.9040.0040.00-0.38-0.38
WashingtonP121.901.9050.0050.000.000.00
SeattleWAC1.881.8846.4346.43-0.13-0.13
PrincetonIvy1.791.7950.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC1.791.7956.6756.670.240.24
PacificWCC0.410.4132.1432.14-0.15-0.15
San DiegoWCC0.380.3846.6746.67-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.350.3554.5554.550.030.03
BYUWCC0.320.3271.8871.880.140.14
ColoradoP120.290.2946.8846.88-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.270.2740.7440.74-0.05-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.270.2745.1645.16-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.270.2723.3323.33-0.14-0.14
Saint Mary'sWCC0.270.2768.9768.970.100.10
New Mexico St.WAC0.260.2667.7467.740.090.09
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.240.2422.5822.58-0.13-0.13
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.240.2456.6756.670.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.240.2493.9493.940.210.21
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.210.2136.6736.67-0.06-0.06
StanfordP120.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
UtahP120.200.2074.1974.190.100.10
UC IrvineBW0.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
USCP120.180.1837.5037.50-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.150.1532.1432.14-0.05-0.05
UC RiversideBW0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
MontanaBSky0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
Arizona St.P120.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.140.1446.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
ArizonaP120.140.1491.1891.180.120.12
Texas TechB120.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.120.1217.8617.86-0.08-0.08
OregonP120.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
Southern UtahBSky0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
DenverSum0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0917.2417.24-0.06-0.06
UMKCWAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.090.000.00-0.09-0.09
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
UCLAP120.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
AkronMAC0.090.0958.8258.820.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
HarvardIvy0.060.0674.0774.070.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.060.0629.6329.63-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
RiderMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
George MasonA100.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
MaristMAAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0671.4371.430.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
WisconsinB100.060.0691.1891.180.050.05
AlbanyAE0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Georgia St.SB0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
KansasB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
SMUAmer0.060.0681.2581.250.030.03
South DakotaSum0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.010.01
LafayettePat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00