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Through games of Feb 26, 2017.


San Jose St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:167.1
Current RPI:168
Expected SOS:110
Current SOS:127
Current Record:12-13
Expected Record:12-15
Current Conf Record:7-9
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-3
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:184
Expected OOC SOS:253



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-13135.75.54%
13-14156.636.43%
12-15176.758.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Jose St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Portland (240.0)WCCH66-79L0%0.0
11-17Denver (204.2)SumH69-74L0%0.0
11-22Saint Mary's (16.3)WCCA81-64L0%0.0
11-27Washington St. (150.1)P12A76-88W100%0.0
11-29Idaho (222.4)BSkyA49-58W100%0.0
12-3Santa Clara (144.7)WCCH55-40W100%0.0
12-7Montana (224.0)BSkyA81-62L0%0.0
12-18Bowling Green (212.7)MACH77-76W100%0.0
12-21Southern Utah (342.7)BSkyH92-82W100%0.0
12-28Nevada (40.2)MWCA80-55L0%0.0
1-4Colorado St. (72.3)MWCH71-76L0%0.0
1-7Fresno St. (96.7)MWCH69-62W100%0.0
1-10San Diego St. (102.1)MWCA76-61L0%0.0
1-14Air Force (254.8)MWCA85-89W100%0.0
1-18Wyoming (137.2)MWCH70-80L0%0.0
1-21Boise St. (60.3)MWCH65-75L0%0.0
1-25Colorado St. (72.3)MWCA81-72L0%0.0
1-28UNLV (241.1)MWCH76-72W100%0.0
2-4New Mexico (87.6)MWCA68-78W100%0.0
2-7San Diego St. (102.1)MWCH76-71W100%0.0
2-11UNLV (241.1)MWCA74-76W100%0.0
2-15Fresno St. (96.7)MWCA77-59L0%0.0
2-18Air Force (254.8)MWCH83-78W100%0.0
2-22Utah St. (174.2)MWCH75-81L0%0.0
2-25Boise St. (60.3)MWCA85-78L0%0.0
3-1Nevada (40.2)MWCH0-021%-8.5
3-4Wyoming (137.2)MWCA0-026%-6.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Jose St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


San Jose St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  San Jose St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
San Jose St.MWC26.3526.3647.0645.24-1.55-2.51
WyomingMWC3.024.6953.8552.800.230.26
Air ForceMWC4.804.6636.0034.90-1.34-1.41
NevadaMWC2.964.6378.5778.381.692.63
UNLVMWC4.814.6337.0436.21-1.25-1.28
Fresno St.MWC4.774.6258.3358.430.800.78
Colorado St.MWC4.854.5964.0063.011.361.20
Boise St.MWC4.734.5962.5062.901.181.18
San Diego St.MWC4.814.5956.0057.170.580.66
New MexicoMWC2.962.8757.1456.740.420.39
Utah St.MWC2.962.8642.3143.12-0.45-0.39
MontanaBSky2.232.1146.4346.94-0.16-0.13
Saint Mary'sWCC2.172.0489.2989.291.711.60
Santa ClaraWCC2.172.0151.7251.720.070.07
Southern UtahBSky2.142.0111.5412.41-1.65-1.51
IdahoBSky2.142.0154.1755.470.180.22
DenverSum2.111.9853.5753.570.150.14
PortlandWCC2.141.9825.0025.00-1.07-0.99
Washington St.P122.111.9546.1543.30-0.16-0.26
Bowling GreenMAC2.001.8544.4443.47-0.22-0.24
Loyola MarymountWCC0.430.4150.0050.000.000.00
PacificWCC0.350.3830.0030.00-0.14-0.15
Idaho St.BSky0.300.2914.8115.93-0.21-0.20
Northern ColoradoBSky0.290.2528.0030.25-0.13-0.10
OregonP120.290.2586.2186.570.210.19
GonzagaWCC0.280.2596.6796.670.260.24
San DiegoWCC0.280.2541.3841.38-0.05-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.280.2563.3363.330.070.07
Northern ArizonaBSky0.250.2525.0025.07-0.13-0.13
Weber St.BSky0.220.2356.0057.060.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.220.2266.6767.530.070.08
ColoradoP120.260.2253.5753.810.020.02
BYUWCC0.240.2267.7467.740.090.08
Sacramento St.BSky0.250.2236.0035.08-0.07-0.07
PepperdineWCC0.240.2227.5927.59-0.11-0.10
South Dakota St.Sum0.190.2044.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.220.1948.1547.91-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.220.1945.8345.20-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.180.1913.7913.43-0.13-0.14
New Mexico St.WAC0.220.1980.7781.310.130.12
Arizona St.P120.220.1946.6745.71-0.01-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.210.1824.0023.98-0.11-0.10
StanfordP120.190.1648.1546.78-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.150.1667.8666.480.050.05
USCP120.110.1672.4173.260.050.07
South DakotaSum0.170.1665.5265.520.050.05
UC IrvineBW0.140.1653.5755.070.010.02
UC DavisBW0.150.1359.2658.390.030.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.150.1340.0041.36-0.03-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.150.1365.2266.440.050.04
AkronMAC0.150.1378.5778.180.080.07
ArizonaP120.140.1386.6786.550.100.09
Cal St. FullertonBW0.140.1248.0048.50-0.01-0.00
WashingtonP120.110.1232.1430.72-0.04-0.05
OaklandHorz0.110.1275.8675.860.060.06
BuffaloMAC0.070.1248.1548.55-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.070.1261.2961.290.020.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1029.6331.85-0.05-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1044.4445.39-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.1040.0041.50-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.110.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1048.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.110.1058.6257.980.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1055.1755.170.010.01
UCLAP120.070.1089.6690.150.060.08
DaytonA100.100.0981.4880.740.070.06
Oral RobertsSum0.100.0921.4321.43-0.06-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.110.0960.7159.770.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.100.0942.3142.60-0.02-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.0944.8345.81-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.080.0730.7732.97-0.03-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0772.0072.040.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0773.3373.330.040.03
DrakeMVC0.080.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.080.0748.0049.70-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.080.0760.7159.700.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0750.0049.680.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0711.1111.11-0.06-0.05
SMUAmer0.080.0786.2186.520.060.05
UTSACUSA0.080.0737.0436.94-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0746.1546.13-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0658.3359.230.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0626.9228.27-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0654.1752.440.010.00
ArmyPat0.070.0637.9337.93-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.040.0623.0823.48-0.02-0.03
DePaulBE0.040.0631.0330.04-0.01-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0644.8343.04-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0619.2319.72-0.05-0.04
Fort WayneSum0.070.0659.2659.260.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0667.8666.440.030.02
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0637.9338.88-0.02-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0633.3335.14-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0650.0050.000.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0653.5753.570.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0662.9662.960.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.040.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0636.0035.98-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0646.4345.93-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0625.9325.10-0.04-0.03
StetsonASun0.070.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.040.0651.8551.300.000.00
TulsaAmer0.070.0650.0049.050.00-0.00
UtahP120.070.0661.5461.950.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0624.0024.00-0.04-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0686.6786.670.050.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0621.4322.28-0.04-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0676.6776.670.040.03
Kent St.MAC0.040.0657.1456.880.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0629.6328.06-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.070.0665.3866.640.020.02
ToledoMAC0.070.0650.0050.440.000.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.02
DukeACC0.070.0675.8674.140.040.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0630.4330.00-0.03-0.02
KansasB120.070.0689.6688.490.050.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0650.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.070.0657.1456.900.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0660.0060.000.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0616.0016.70-0.02-0.04
Little RockSB0.040.0342.3141.71-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.040.0356.0056.310.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.040.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.040.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.040.0379.3178.860.020.02
Texas TechB120.040.0358.6258.500.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.040.0344.4445.74-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.040.0375.0074.570.020.02
Saint LouisA100.040.0334.4833.33-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.040.0340.0039.27-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0330.7730.93-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.5752.890.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0362.5062.610.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0052.300.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0376.9276.820.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0325.9325.17-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0339.1339.73-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.037.698.10-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.040.0351.8550.780.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.040.0386.2185.440.030.02
DetroitHorz0.040.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0340.0041.22-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.040.0357.1457.140.010.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0347.8349.16-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0382.7682.760.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0346.1546.81-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.040.0342.8642.86-0.01-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.040.0348.1547.90-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.01-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
UMKCWAC0.040.0344.4445.62-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0344.4445.02-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.1752.800.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0371.4370.190.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.0760.370.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0350.0049.020.00-0.00