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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


UC Davis

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:256.1
Current RPI:290
Expected SOS:316
Current SOS:345
Current Record:4-4
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-8
Current OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:210
Expected OOC SOS:261



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-8121.50.02%
20-9134.60.19%
19-10154.00.46%
18-11171.91.36%
17-12189.14.15%
16-13207.08.42%
15-14226.012.42%
14-15244.217.26%
13-16263.019.29%
12-17279.315.55%
11-18294.310.76%
10-19306.66.39%
9-20316.42.63%
8-21324.50.81%
7-22333.20.25%
6-23334.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Davis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Tennessee St. (96.9)OVCN64-78L0%0.0
11-12Santa Clara (246.4)WCCA58-63W100%0.0
11-13Northern Arizona (342.0)BSkyN76-89W100%0.0
11-21Sacramento St. (336.4)BSkyN72-81W100%0.0
11-24Weber St. (209.7)BSkyN86-58L0%0.0
11-25Drake (308.2)MVCN64-58W100%0.0
11-26Oakland (94.8)HorzN66-79L0%0.0
12-3Idaho (230.0)BSkyA68-66L0%0.0
12-10California (61.1)P12A0-07%-17.9
12-14North Dakota St. (146.4)SumA0-023%-9.0
12-22Air Force (168.0)MWCA0-023%-9.0
12-28Seattle (265.1)WACA0-045%-1.5
12-31Utah Valley (141.7)WACH0-046%-1.2
1-4UC Santa Barbara (269.9)BWH0-063%3.9
1-7Cal Poly (261.7)BWH0-061%3.3
1-12UC Riverside (301.7)BWA0-050%-0.0
1-14Cal St. Northridge (260.0)BWA0-037%-3.9
1-21Hawaii (274.7)BWA0-034%-5.0
1-28UC Irvine (159.9)BWH0-044%-1.9
2-2Cal Poly (261.7)BWA0-040%-3.0
2-4UC Santa Barbara (269.9)BWA0-042%-2.4
2-8Cal St. Fullerton (325.8)BWH0-072%7.1
2-11UC Riverside (301.7)BWH0-070%6.2
2-16Long Beach St. (200.9)BWA0-030%-6.4
2-18Cal St. Fullerton (325.8)BWA0-053%0.8
2-23Cal St. Northridge (260.0)BWH0-058%2.3
2-25Long Beach St. (200.9)BWH0-050%-0.1
3-2Hawaii (274.7)BWH0-054%1.2
3-4UC Irvine (159.9)BWA0-025%-8.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Davis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Davis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Davis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC DavisBW28.6726.4155.0049.042.87-0.51
UC IrvineBW0.354.3944.4452.36-0.040.21
UC RiversideBW0.004.380.0030.57-0.00-1.70
Cal PolyBW0.004.3642.8640.49-0.00-0.83
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.004.360.0032.60-0.00-1.52
Long Beach St.BW0.004.340.0036.87-0.00-1.14
Cal St. FullertonBW0.004.3328.5733.25-0.00-1.45
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.004.3325.0042.54-0.00-0.65
HawaiiBW0.004.3242.8650.38-0.000.03
Northern ArizonaBSky7.041.9412.5020.97-5.28-1.13
Santa ClaraWCC7.041.9137.5033.92-1.76-0.61
Utah ValleyWAC0.001.8957.1457.920.000.30
Weber St.BSky6.251.880.0047.85-6.25-0.08
IdahoBSky6.251.8840.0051.32-1.250.05
SeattleWAC0.001.8516.6738.19-0.00-0.44
Sacramento St.BSky6.251.850.0023.16-6.25-0.99
CaliforniaP120.001.8587.5063.780.000.51
Tennessee St.OVC6.941.7883.3368.774.630.67
Air ForceMWC0.001.7257.1447.060.00-0.10
DrakeMVC6.251.720.0020.96-6.25-1.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.001.7257.1458.310.000.29
OaklandHorz6.251.7283.3376.174.170.90
Southern UtahBSky0.450.340.0025.31-0.45-0.17
Northern ColoradoBSky0.350.3116.6740.32-0.23-0.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.520.3125.0040.17-0.26-0.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.350.2950.0064.910.000.09
MontanaBSky0.000.2925.0048.70-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.2912.5029.77-0.00-0.12
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.2871.4355.680.000.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.2833.3355.64-0.000.03
UCLAP120.000.28100.0086.650.000.21
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.2875.0069.680.000.11
WashingtonP120.350.2757.1452.140.050.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.2642.8658.24-0.000.04
DenverSum1.040.2642.8645.65-0.15-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.2637.5050.92-0.000.00
PortlandWCC0.000.2557.1450.730.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.2540.0043.88-0.00-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.000.2242.8656.48-0.000.03
UNLVMWC0.350.2262.5042.780.09-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.350.2137.5031.15-0.09-0.08
PacificWCC0.520.2142.8645.98-0.07-0.02
NevadaMWC0.450.2177.7871.770.250.09
PepperdineWCC0.520.2142.8633.51-0.07-0.07
StanfordP120.520.1966.6758.600.170.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.1842.8650.57-0.000.00
UMKCWAC0.520.1655.5649.660.06-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.450.1620.0022.08-0.27-0.09
Northern IllinoisMAC0.520.1642.8645.50-0.07-0.01
UtahP120.000.1680.0058.220.000.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.1620.0060.00-0.000.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.350.1650.0045.920.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.000.1542.8629.20-0.00-0.06
San FranciscoWCC0.520.1585.7153.770.370.01
ColoradoP120.520.1575.0062.450.260.04
Fresno St.MWC0.520.1557.1443.930.07-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1542.8644.89-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.350.1577.7870.290.190.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1320.0022.88-0.00-0.07
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1360.0067.820.000.05
UTSACUSA0.000.1325.0029.90-0.00-0.05
IonaMAAC1.040.1357.1464.540.150.04
South DakotaSum0.520.1350.0046.820.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.350.1212.5033.31-0.26-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.1287.5081.910.000.08
Boise St.MWC0.000.1250.0056.890.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1260.0058.900.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.1262.5067.080.000.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1225.0045.82-0.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.870.1250.0040.690.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.1255.5637.870.00-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1277.7886.650.000.09
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1237.5037.96-0.00-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.12100.0089.590.000.09
Oregon St.P120.000.1125.0023.62-0.00-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.100.0023.90-0.00-0.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1050.0042.770.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.1075.0054.480.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0962.5058.130.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.450.090.0022.75-0.45-0.05
USCP120.000.09100.0076.400.000.05
GonzagaWCC0.000.09100.0092.200.000.08
AkronMAC0.000.0971.4368.930.000.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0960.0069.260.000.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0985.7175.250.000.04
WyomingMWC0.000.0966.6753.730.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0971.4360.090.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0712.5037.11-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0728.5738.92-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0750.0044.180.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0742.8636.07-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.17-0.00-0.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0657.1464.500.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0050.980.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0662.5070.890.000.03
IUPUISum0.000.0633.3351.57-0.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0616.6738.87-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0625.0041.19-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0666.6766.650.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0644.4436.20-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0625.0027.74-0.00-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0671.4365.470.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0016.33-0.00-0.04
BradleyMVC0.000.0637.5025.74-0.00-0.03
ElonCAA0.000.0662.5054.660.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0650.0045.130.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0642.8650.98-0.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4358.830.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0633.3352.49-0.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0657.1449.420.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0660.0062.420.000.02
Little RockSB0.520.0666.6761.400.170.01
VanderbiltSEC0.790.0655.5646.770.09-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0628.5731.07-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0021.30-0.00-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3379.920.000.04
Green BayHorz0.000.0637.5048.85-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0657.1453.860.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0662.5052.060.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0637.5038.08-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0650.0042.750.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0056.080.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0657.1471.170.000.02
KansasB120.000.0688.8977.470.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.0687.5075.690.000.03
OregonP120.000.0675.0072.800.000.03
TexasB120.000.0650.0038.730.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0316.6729.83-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0076.970.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.0385.7175.800.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0340.0054.81-0.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0387.5069.040.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0375.0066.120.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0333.3336.67-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.520.0333.3352.03-0.170.00
CanisiusMAAC0.450.0337.5044.42-0.11-0.00
DukeACC0.000.0390.0080.060.000.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0357.1449.640.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0337.5044.87-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0325.0030.02-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.450.0311.1132.47-0.35-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.450.0387.5075.730.330.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0060.950.000.01
NavyPat0.000.0333.3338.56-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.520.0357.1444.830.07-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.63-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0050.980.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.520.0350.0057.950.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0342.8638.35-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0055.480.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0371.4355.570.000.00
XavierBE0.000.0387.5070.880.000.01
DePaulBE0.520.0371.4337.680.22-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0375.0071.330.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0314.2943.08-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.000.0342.8650.29-0.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.450.0325.0040.78-0.22-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0370.0050.010.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.47-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0357.1451.810.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0362.5060.090.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0360.0058.780.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0344.4443.25-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0330.0045.49-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.0325.0026.46-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.450.0316.6735.90-0.30-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.29-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0357.1472.530.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.350.0344.4438.15-0.04-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0342.8650.33-0.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0320.0035.46-0.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0388.8978.430.000.02