UC Davis

Conference:	BW
Expected RPI:	342.2
Current RPI:	344
Expected SOS:	308
Current SOS:	312
Current Record:	0-21
Expected Record:	2-27
Current Conf Record:	0-10
Expected Conf Record:	1-15
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	1-15
Current OOC Record:	0-11
Expected OOC Record:	1-12
Expected OOC RPI:	344
Expected OOC SOS:	322

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
5-24	332.3	0.29%
4-25	336.8	2.98%
3-26	340.3	13.49%
2-27	342.1	32.45%
1-28	343.1	35.84%
0-29	343.6	14.94%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Davis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Southern Utah (231.1)	Sum	N	75-76	L	0%	0.0
11-12	Bryant (334.0)	NEC	N	63-70	L	0%	0.0
11-13	San Diego St. (26.6)	MWC	A	89-74	L	0%	0.0
11-18	Stanford (89.9)	P12	H	49-70	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Sacramento St. (305.2)	BSky	H	61-69	L	0%	0.0
11-27	Eastern Washington (210.5)	BSky	A	79-59	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Idaho (169.6)	WAC	H	74-94	L	0%	0.0
12-11	Hawaii (184.5)	WAC	A	74-61	L	0%	0.0
12-17	UCLA (109.2)	P12	N	82-39	L	0%	0.0
12-20	San Jose St. (281.3)	WAC	A	79-59	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Southern Utah (231.1)	Sum	A	62-51	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Cal St. Fullerton (167.7)	BW	A	65-64	L	0%	0.0
1-5	UC Riverside (257.6)	BW	H	58-60	L	0%	0.0
1-7	UC Irvine (260.2)	BW	H	55-70	L	0%	0.0
1-12	Long Beach St. (39.1)	BW	A	86-58	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Cal St. Northridge (309.6)	BW	A	84-80	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Pacific (265.6)	BW	A	64-48	L	0%	0.0
1-26	UC Santa Barbara (147.3)	BW	H	59-86	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Cal Poly (192.6)	BW	H	65-67	L	0%	0.0
2-2	UC Irvine (260.2)	BW	A	68-61	L	0%	0.0
2-4	UC Riverside (257.6)	BW	A	59-54	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Cal St. Northridge (309.6)	BW	H	0-0		51%	0.3
2-11	Long Beach St. (39.1)	BW	H	0-0		3%	-20.6
2-15	Pacific (265.6)	BW	H	0-0		30%	-5.8
2-18	Northern Arizona (328.5)	BSky	A	0-0		38%	-3.3
2-20	Seattle (288.1)	ind	A	0-0		13%	-12.2
2-25	Cal St. Fullerton (167.7)	BW	H	0-0		15%	-11.5
3-1	Cal Poly (192.6)	BW	A	0-0		3%	-20.4
3-3	UC Santa Barbara (147.3)	BW	A	0-0		3%	-20.2

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Davis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UC Davis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UC Davis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UC Davis	BW	26.53	26.49	0.00	5.15	-26.53	-23.76
UC Riverside	BW	5.41	4.47	36.84	35.01	-1.42	-1.34
UC Irvine	BW	5.40	4.46	27.78	30.09	-2.40	-1.78
Cal Poly	BW	3.20	4.44	47.62	53.68	-0.15	0.33
Pacific	BW	3.31	4.43	31.58	33.66	-1.22	-1.45
Long Beach St.	BW	3.15	4.41	70.00	71.41	1.26	1.89
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	3.09	4.37	63.16	64.62	0.81	1.28
Cal St. Northridge	BW	3.09	4.37	16.67	18.12	-2.06	-2.78
UC Santa Barbara	BW	3.08	4.36	52.94	54.50	0.18	0.39
Southern Utah	Sum	4.87	3.57	40.00	39.85	-0.97	-0.72
San Jose St.	WAC	2.89	2.16	23.81	24.34	-1.51	-1.11
Eastern Washington	BSky	2.73	2.11	38.10	41.96	-0.65	-0.34
Hawaii	WAC	2.78	2.07	55.00	51.38	0.28	0.06
Idaho	WAC	2.60	2.01	45.00	49.27	-0.26	-0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	2.77	2.01	85.00	77.24	1.94	1.09
Seattle	ind	0.34	1.94	23.53	30.96	-0.18	-0.74
Sacramento St.	BSky	2.54	1.94	26.32	30.53	-1.20	-0.76
Stanford	P12	2.49	1.88	68.18	67.20	0.91	0.65
UCLA	P12	2.61	1.88	52.38	55.30	0.12	0.20
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.23	1.85	13.64	14.38	-0.17	-1.32
Bryant	NEC	2.55	1.82	4.35	7.78	-2.32	-1.54
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.64	0.63	47.83	47.87	-0.03	-0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.34	0.45	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.03
Fresno St.	WAC	0.39	0.44	39.13	44.52	-0.08	-0.05
Montana St.	BSky	0.39	0.41	45.00	41.76	-0.04	-0.07
Portland St.	BSky	0.11	0.36	42.86	45.80	-0.02	-0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.45	0.35	80.00	76.84	0.27	0.19
Southern California	P12	0.39	0.33	25.00	25.13	-0.20	-0.17
Montana	BSky	0.28	0.31	70.00	73.28	0.11	0.15
California	P12	0.40	0.31	75.00	74.61	0.20	0.15
Nevada	WAC	0.40	0.31	80.95	76.42	0.25	0.16
Washington	P12	0.23	0.26	69.57	66.54	0.09	0.09
Idaho St.	BSky	0.06	0.26	33.33	33.88	-0.02	-0.08
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.17	0.25	30.00	31.54	-0.07	-0.09
Washington St.	P12	0.39	0.24	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.24	0.23	28.57	26.30	-0.10	-0.11
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.23	0.22	82.61	81.44	0.15	0.14
Boise St.	MWC	0.23	0.22	42.86	41.13	-0.03	-0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.17	0.19	31.82	33.83	-0.06	-0.06
San Diego	WCC	0.29	0.19	33.33	33.82	-0.10	-0.06
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.17	0.18	42.86	43.45	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.17	0.18	69.57	68.90	0.07	0.07
Arizona	P12	0.21	0.18	66.67	68.55	0.07	0.07
San Francisco	WCC	0.11	0.16	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.22	0.16	61.90	63.52	0.05	0.04
South Dakota	Sum	0.27	0.16	26.32	28.83	-0.13	-0.07
Utah	P12	0.17	0.15	18.18	15.01	-0.11	-0.11
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.22	0.13	35.00	35.31	-0.06	-0.04
IUPUI	Sum	0.11	0.13	34.78	35.50	-0.03	-0.04
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.22	0.13	34.78	35.20	-0.07	-0.04
Oakland	Sum	0.11	0.13	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.11	0.13	80.77	80.75	0.07	0.08
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.22	0.13	73.91	75.49	0.10	0.07
Troy	SB	0.22	0.13	28.57	30.17	-0.09	-0.05
Western Illinois	Sum	0.11	0.13	52.63	48.41	0.01	-0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.18	0.13	76.19	70.73	0.09	0.05
Arizona St.	P12	0.11	0.12	30.43	31.43	-0.04	-0.04
Oregon	P12	0.16	0.12	69.57	64.53	0.06	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.16	0.12	63.64	63.16	0.04	0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.07	0.10	75.00	76.00	0.03	0.05
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.10	54.17	54.75	0.00	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.09	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.06	0.09	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.07
Xavier	A10	0.11	0.09	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.03
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.17	0.09	57.14	60.75	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.16	0.09	30.43	26.44	-0.06	-0.04
Colorado St.	MWC	0.11	0.09	66.67	60.80	0.04	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.11	0.09	78.26	78.39	0.06	0.05
St. Mary's	WCC	0.11	0.09	90.91	87.74	0.09	0.07
Colorado	P12	0.11	0.09	66.67	62.65	0.04	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.00	0.07	37.50	38.33	-0.00	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.00	0.07	54.55	57.69	0.00	0.01
Longwood	ind	0.00	0.07	30.00	27.84	-0.00	-0.03
Portland	WCC	0.07	0.07	21.74	21.70	-0.04	-0.04
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.07	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.06	28.57	34.20	-0.05	-0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	28.52	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.12	0.06	59.09	57.28	0.02	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	25.00	23.75	-0.03	-0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	26.32	29.71	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.12	0.06	85.71	82.18	0.09	0.04
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	82.61	80.42	0.04	0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.11	0.06	27.78	29.87	-0.05	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.11	0.06	81.82	81.49	0.07	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	72.73	68.28	0.03	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.06	0.06	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.03	0.04	0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	86.96	83.16	0.04	0.04
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.06	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.06	0.06	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.11	0.06	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.11	0.06	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.11	0.06	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.06	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.06	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.06	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	25.00	37.58	-0.03	-0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.10	0.06	45.45	45.70	-0.01	-0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.06	26.09	28.60	-0.02	-0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.10	0.06	56.52	57.15	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.06	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.00	0.06	44.00	45.89	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.06	21.74	22.76	-0.03	-0.03
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.06	82.61	84.57	0.03	0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.00	0.04	90.48	87.91	0.00	0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.00	0.04	81.82	76.80	0.00	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.03	41.18	42.61	-0.01	-0.00
North Dakota	GWC	0.06	0.03	33.33	41.31	-0.02	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.03	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	26.32	29.79	-0.00	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.06	0.03	90.91	83.85	0.05	0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.03	4.76	9.95	-0.05	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.03	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Elon	SC	0.06	0.03	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	10.00	14.93	-0.05	-0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.03	35.00	39.38	-0.02	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.03	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
Army	Pat	0.05	0.03	40.91	41.72	-0.01	-0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.03	27.27	23.80	-0.02	-0.02
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.03	14.29	17.17	-0.04	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.70	12.13	-0.04	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	74.91	0.02	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.03	70.83	71.05	0.02	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.03	83.33	84.76	0.04	0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.03	28.00	28.91	-0.02	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.02	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.03	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.84	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.05	0.03	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.95	0.01	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.00	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.00	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.01	0.05	0.02
Texas	B12	0.05	0.03	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.03	72.22	63.19	0.02	0.01