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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


UC Davis

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:326.0
Current RPI:326
Expected SOS:289
Current SOS:289
Current Record:7-22
Expected Record:7-22
Current Conf Record:4-12
Expected Conf Record:4-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-10
Current OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:336
Expected OOC SOS:325



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-22326.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Davis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Portland (178.0)WCCA100-83L0%0.0
11-15Utah (80.0)P12A94-60L0%0.0
11-22SIU Edwardsville (320.0)OVCN80-75W100%0.0
11-23Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCN61-64W100%0.0
11-24Portland St. (252.0)BSkyA79-63L0%0.0
11-26Sacramento St. (263.0)BSkyH67-73L0%0.0
11-30Idaho (238.0)WACH76-80L0%0.0
12-2Seattle (267.0)WACA77-53L0%0.0
12-7Nevada (137.0)MWCH81-87L0%0.0
12-14Stanford (41.0)P12A83-56L0%0.0
12-18San Jose St. (278.0)MWCA89-85L0%0.0
12-21Air Force (251.0)MWCH80-74W100%0.0
12-30Furman (339.0)SCH65-75L0%0.0
1-9Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWA89-77L0%0.0
1-11Long Beach St. (166.0)BWA99-74L0%0.0
1-16UC Riverside (319.0)BWH69-81L0%0.0
1-18Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWH69-61W100%0.0
1-23Hawaii (160.0)BWH73-90L0%0.0
1-30Cal Poly (208.0)BWA58-62W100%0.0
2-1UC Santa Barbara (107.0)BWA82-67L0%0.0
2-6Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWH90-86W100%0.0
2-8UC Irvine (111.0)BWH59-61L0%0.0
2-13Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWA74-64L0%0.0
2-20Long Beach St. (166.0)BWH57-79L0%0.0
2-22Hawaii (160.0)BWA86-77L0%0.0
2-27Cal Poly (208.0)BWH85-73W100%0.0
3-1UC Santa Barbara (107.0)BWH54-67L0%0.0
3-6UC Riverside (319.0)BWA78-65L0%0.0
3-8UC Irvine (111.0)BWA74-46L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Davis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Davis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Davis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC DavisBW26.2926.2922.1422.14-14.65-14.65
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.524.5245.1645.16-0.44-0.44
Cal PolyBW4.474.4739.2939.29-0.96-0.96
Cal St. FullertonBW4.434.4334.4834.48-1.38-1.38
UC IrvineBW4.404.4063.3363.331.171.17
UC RiversideBW4.394.3922.2222.22-2.44-2.44
Long Beach St.BW4.384.3839.2939.29-0.94-0.94
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.334.3365.3865.381.331.33
HawaiiBW4.304.3059.2659.260.800.80
SeattleWAC2.062.0637.0437.04-0.53-0.53
NevadaMWC1.961.9645.1645.16-0.19-0.19
Sacramento St.BSky1.951.9540.7440.74-0.36-0.36
IdahoWAC1.951.9543.7543.75-0.24-0.24
San Jose St.MWC1.921.9214.2914.29-1.37-1.37
Portland St.BSky1.901.9050.0050.000.000.00
Air ForceMWC1.901.9037.0437.04-0.49-0.49
StanfordP121.811.8162.5062.500.450.45
PortlandWCC1.811.8146.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.781.7830.0030.00-0.71-0.71
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.781.7832.1432.14-0.64-0.64
UtahP121.751.7562.0762.070.420.42
FurmanSC1.721.7223.0823.08-0.93-0.93
Fresno St.MWC0.400.4048.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.380.3859.3859.380.070.07
Montana St.BSky0.370.3741.3841.38-0.06-0.06
UNLVMWC0.290.2960.6160.610.060.06
WashingtonP120.280.2853.1253.120.020.02
USCP120.280.2832.2632.26-0.10-0.10
Utah St.MWC0.270.2754.8454.840.030.03
MontanaBSky0.260.2653.5753.570.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.260.263.573.57-0.24-0.24
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.260.2644.8344.83-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.260.2638.7138.71-0.06-0.06
CaliforniaP120.260.2659.3859.380.050.05
UCLAP120.260.2676.4776.470.140.14
PepperdineWCC0.250.2546.6746.67-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.250.2588.2488.240.190.19
North DakotaBSky0.240.2448.3948.39-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.230.2373.5373.530.110.11
San Diego St.MWC0.210.2187.1087.100.150.15
Santa ClaraWCC0.200.2038.7138.71-0.04-0.04
PacificWCC0.190.1948.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.180.1845.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.180.1855.1755.170.020.02
ColoradoP120.180.1867.6567.650.060.06
Idaho St.BSky0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
WyomingMWC0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
Oregon St.P120.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
OregonP120.170.1771.8871.880.070.07
Washington St.P120.160.1630.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Weber St.BSky0.150.1560.7160.710.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.140.1481.8281.820.090.09
MissouriSEC0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
Chicago St.WAC0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.1446.1546.15-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.140.1434.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.140.1462.0762.070.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Kansas St.B120.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0913.7913.79-0.06-0.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.090.0913.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
PittsburghACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
South DakotaSum0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
DenverSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
DavidsonSC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
SamfordSC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.05-0.05
WoffordSC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
TroySB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
CreightonBE0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
DelawareCAA0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
VCUA100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
DrakeMVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Miami FLACC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0593.1093.100.050.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
BucknellPat0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01