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Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


UC Davis

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:158.8
Current RPI:132
Expected SOS:290
Current SOS:334
Current Record:6-1
Expected Record:17-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-5
Current OOC Record:6-1
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:120
Expected OOC SOS:330



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-344.00.01%
23-457.90.16%
22-569.70.63%
21-683.01.88%
20-797.75.01%
19-8113.410.31%
18-9129.614.53%
17-10147.718.92%
16-11168.218.67%
15-12189.314.28%
14-13211.49.31%
13-14233.74.28%
12-15255.11.47%
11-16271.70.47%
10-17292.70.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Davis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-20Eastern Illinois (265.9)OVCA61-63W100%0.0
11-22Furman (290.9)SCA55-58W100%0.0
11-26Utah St. (163.5)MWCH77-70W100%0.0
11-29Utah Valley (278.7)WACH64-43W100%0.0
12-3San Jose St. (327.4)MWCH70-56W100%0.0
12-6Idaho (222.7)BSkyA79-71L0%0.0
12-9Eastern Illinois (265.9)OVCH80-70W100%0.0
12-20Air Force (110.1)MWCA0-023%-8.8
12-22Northern Colorado (179.4)BSkyA0-038%-3.7
12-28Washington St. (211.6)P12A0-050%-0.1
12-30Seattle (271.1)WACA0-053%1.0
1-7Cal St. Northridge (288.3)BWH0-085%12.1
1-10Long Beach St. (90.0)BWH0-055%1.3
1-15UC Riverside (244.9)BWA0-049%-0.3
1-17Cal St. Fullerton (264.2)BWA0-055%1.6
1-22Hawaii (225.6)BWA0-046%-1.3
1-29UC Santa Barbara (78.9)BWH0-040%-3.1
1-31Cal Poly (236.0)BWH0-079%9.3
2-5UC Irvine (199.7)BWA0-038%-3.7
2-7Cal St. Northridge (288.3)BWA0-061%3.3
2-12Cal St. Fullerton (264.2)BWH0-081%10.3
2-19Long Beach St. (90.0)BWA0-026%-7.4
2-21Hawaii (225.6)BWH0-074%7.5
2-26UC Santa Barbara (78.9)BWA0-016%-11.8
2-28Cal Poly (236.0)BWA0-052%0.6
3-5UC Riverside (244.9)BWH0-076%8.5
3-7UC Irvine (199.7)BWH0-067%5.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Davis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Davis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Davis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC DavisBW28.7226.5089.6665.5922.788.26
Cal St. FullertonBW0.404.7036.3639.40-0.11-1.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.004.6937.5063.95-0.001.31
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.004.6720.0028.80-0.00-1.98
Long Beach St.BW0.004.6440.0049.30-0.00-0.06
UC RiversideBW0.004.6342.8644.24-0.00-0.53
HawaiiBW0.004.6266.6755.190.000.48
UC IrvineBW0.004.6237.5046.83-0.00-0.29
Cal PolyBW0.004.6242.8638.29-0.00-1.08
Eastern IllinoisOVC14.293.7042.8642.25-2.04-0.57
SeattleWAC0.402.1537.5046.46-0.10-0.15
San Jose St.MWC7.142.110.008.16-7.14-1.77
Utah St.MWC7.542.0257.1455.001.080.20
Washington St.P120.451.9940.0028.33-0.09-0.86
Air ForceMWC0.001.9857.1460.660.000.42
Utah ValleyWAC7.591.9637.5042.17-1.90-0.31
IdahoBSky7.141.9228.5747.90-3.06-0.08
Northern ColoradoBSky0.001.8928.5756.53-0.000.25
FurmanSC7.141.8528.5730.38-3.06-0.73
Sacramento St.BSky0.400.4442.8641.92-0.06-0.07
NevadaMWC0.000.4012.5024.75-0.00-0.20
San Diego St.MWC0.000.3270.0072.770.000.15
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.3111.1129.64-0.00-0.12
Fresno St.MWC0.000.3030.0029.48-0.00-0.12
Colorado St.MWC0.000.27100.0077.970.000.15
Portland St.BSky0.000.2757.1447.960.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.2666.6759.200.000.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.2436.3664.92-0.000.07
Idaho St.BSky0.400.2316.6733.24-0.26-0.08
Montana St.BSky0.400.2325.0027.83-0.20-0.10
Boise St.MWC0.450.2375.0068.510.220.09
Santa ClaraWCC0.840.2350.0041.530.00-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.2370.0058.440.000.04
UCLAP120.000.2272.7357.410.000.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.2136.3644.37-0.00-0.02
UNLVMWC0.000.2075.0050.770.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.2077.7873.090.000.09
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.2020.0037.19-0.00-0.05
ArizonaP120.400.20100.0080.830.400.12
WashingtonP120.400.19100.0072.030.400.08
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.400.1766.6776.500.130.09
MontanaBSky0.000.1725.0051.40-0.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.450.1728.5742.24-0.19-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC1.240.1750.0033.280.00-0.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1775.0071.470.000.07
BYUWCC0.450.1666.6767.780.150.06
PepperdineWCC0.400.1675.0058.890.200.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.140.0012.02-0.00-0.11
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.1471.4357.420.000.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1444.4449.01-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.1437.5041.33-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.1422.2242.15-0.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1422.2230.96-0.00-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1455.5638.460.00-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.1455.5661.640.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.140.0024.33-0.00-0.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1444.4447.39-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.790.140.0034.38-0.79-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.400.1416.6727.11-0.26-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1462.5066.710.000.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1325.0023.97-0.00-0.07
MercerSC0.000.1337.5041.84-0.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.1390.0066.470.000.04
ColoradoP120.000.1366.6757.580.000.02
SamfordSC0.450.1333.3331.37-0.15-0.05
Oregon St.P120.000.1375.0049.720.00-0.00
UtahP120.000.1377.7879.670.000.08
USCP120.450.1360.0037.230.09-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1325.0028.71-0.00-0.05
LouisvilleACC0.000.12100.0085.210.000.09
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1266.6777.710.000.07
XavierBE0.000.1280.0071.020.000.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1044.4455.33-0.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1020.0038.33-0.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.1025.0032.64-0.00-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1040.0050.48-0.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.1016.6730.49-0.00-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.000.1090.0091.070.000.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.890.1057.1454.700.130.01
Missouri St.MVC0.790.1037.5040.12-0.20-0.02
South DakotaSum0.400.1020.0039.57-0.24-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.400.0962.5055.120.100.01
DelawareCAA0.000.070.008.74-0.00-0.06
IPFWSum0.000.0757.1456.730.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0766.6757.570.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0777.7864.890.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.790.0728.5736.94-0.34-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0760.0062.430.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0733.3332.03-0.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0744.4451.18-0.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.790.0777.7869.420.440.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0737.5048.87-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.790.0772.7351.600.360.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0740.0046.88-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0737.5038.59-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0771.4364.070.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0742.8655.67-0.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0762.5056.250.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0733.3332.85-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0710.0018.78-0.00-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0718.1846.19-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0766.6743.830.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.790.0744.4470.22-0.090.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.450.0725.0033.13-0.22-0.02
PacificWCC0.000.0742.8638.32-0.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0766.6752.270.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.070.0016.94-0.00-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0750.0049.770.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0722.2237.53-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0755.5654.760.000.01
VMISC0.000.0733.3338.88-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0722.2245.85-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0777.7876.160.000.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0716.6719.82-0.00-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0720.0038.66-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0788.8969.540.000.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.0754.5557.610.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0770.0071.340.000.03
VermontAE0.000.0750.0059.880.000.01
TCUB120.450.07100.0066.280.450.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0650.0054.660.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0660.0064.580.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0655.5653.800.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8638.50-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0660.0037.340.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0687.5064.520.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0675.0058.750.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6757.600.000.01
TexasB120.000.0690.0081.760.000.04
Texas St.SB0.000.0450.0050.360.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.450.0342.8632.44-0.06-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0377.7871.830.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.0377.7868.810.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.450.0350.0044.640.00-0.00
DukeACC0.450.03100.0087.440.450.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0012.28-0.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.450.0337.5050.07-0.110.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.008.81-0.00-0.03
LibertyBSth0.450.0325.0035.05-0.22-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0311.1128.93-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0388.8955.730.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.450.0337.5031.79-0.11-0.01
PortlandWCC0.400.0366.6748.960.13-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.400.0327.2737.77-0.18-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.450.0366.6764.900.150.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.450.0350.0039.320.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0054.270.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0316.6725.04-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0366.6772.280.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0342.8637.04-0.00-0.01