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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


UC Davis

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:254.1
Current RPI:243
Expected SOS:196
Current SOS:218
Current Record:8-12
Expected Record:10-17
Current Conf Record:5-4
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-7
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:291
Expected OOC SOS:243



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-12164.50.02%
14-13176.00.15%
13-14194.21.68%
12-15213.77.20%
11-16233.420.59%
10-17253.631.84%
9-18271.728.29%
8-19288.310.22%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Davis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13North Dakota St. (113.2)SumH71-79L0%0.0
11-15Portland (240.6)WCCH79-66W100%0.0
11-24Sacramento St. (250.2)BSkyA84-79L0%0.0
11-28Utah Valley (257.7)WACA70-82W100%0.0
12-2Sacramento St. (250.2)BSkyH66-61W100%0.0
12-4Saint Mary's (39.2)WCCA81-67L0%0.0
12-15San Diego (290.0)WCCA61-55L0%0.0
12-19Air Force (232.0)MWCH60-67L0%0.0
12-22Idaho (219.4)BSkyH51-68L0%0.0
12-28Seattle (269.2)WACA80-75L0%0.0
12-30Boise St. (88.0)MWCA64-56L0%0.0
1-7UC Irvine (68.4)BWA76-55L0%0.0
1-9Long Beach St. (100.8)BWA59-47L0%0.0
1-14Cal St. Northridge (276.8)BWH63-62W100%0.0
1-21UC Riverside (263.9)BWH58-55W100%0.0
1-23Hawaii (89.7)BWA78-62L0%0.0
1-27Cal St. Fullerton (284.3)BWH69-64W100%0.0
1-30Cal Poly (215.8)BWH66-52W100%0.0
2-4Cal St. Fullerton (284.3)BWA61-57L0%0.0
2-6UC Riverside (263.9)BWA49-50W100%0.0
2-11UC Santa Barbara (121.7)BWH0-034%-4.4
2-13Long Beach St. (100.8)BWH0-028%-6.3
2-18Cal Poly (215.8)BWA0-027%-6.7
2-20UC Santa Barbara (121.7)BWA0-015%-11.1
2-27UC Irvine (68.4)BWH0-025%-7.2
3-3Hawaii (89.7)BWH0-020%-9.2
3-5Cal St. Northridge (276.8)BWA0-043%-2.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Davis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Davis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Davis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC DavisBW26.5426.4940.0035.46-5.31-7.70
Cal St. FullertonBW5.624.7233.3330.85-1.87-1.81
UC IrvineBW3.024.7071.4370.531.301.93
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.674.6642.8648.49-0.10-0.14
Cal St. NorthridgeBW3.124.6630.0028.54-1.25-2.00
Cal PolyBW3.094.6531.5834.38-1.14-1.45
UC RiversideBW5.614.6350.0044.630.00-0.50
Long Beach St.BW2.914.6342.8648.78-0.42-0.11
HawaiiBW2.914.6283.3380.991.942.86
Sacramento St.BSky5.173.8341.1845.32-0.91-0.36
PortlandWCC2.932.1641.6739.84-0.49-0.44
Saint Mary'sWCC2.842.1585.0084.821.991.49
SeattleWAC2.822.1345.0042.79-0.28-0.31
San DiegoWCC2.852.1228.5726.50-1.22-1.00
IdahoBSky2.631.9952.3853.340.130.13
Boise St.MWC2.661.9861.9061.250.630.44
Utah ValleyWAC2.621.9635.0036.35-0.79-0.53
Air ForceMWC2.561.8842.8636.25-0.37-0.52
North Dakota St.Sum2.501.8561.9060.740.600.40
Loyola MarymountWCC0.800.5639.1338.57-0.17-0.13
PacificWCC0.600.4025.0028.89-0.30-0.17
San FranciscoWCC0.380.3954.5550.110.030.00
Portland St.BSky0.550.3731.5837.70-0.20-0.09
Idaho St.BSky0.360.3345.0046.13-0.04-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.390.3356.5257.280.050.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.380.3230.4331.20-0.15-0.12
Montana St.BSky0.500.3140.9143.71-0.09-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.400.3066.6767.700.130.11
New Mexico St.WAC0.350.3065.2268.600.110.11
BYUWCC0.290.3066.6769.490.100.12
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.310.2752.3854.080.010.02
Southern UtahBSky0.360.2715.0015.34-0.25-0.19
USCP120.240.2778.2673.050.130.12
NevadaMWC0.300.2655.0054.530.030.02
Utah St.MWC0.340.2647.6249.40-0.02-0.00
UNLVMWC0.280.2650.0055.190.000.03
Weber St.BSky0.240.2465.0069.240.070.09
MontanaBSky0.430.2357.8962.320.070.06
DenverSum0.330.2354.1751.790.030.01
San Jose St.MWC0.340.2325.0022.73-0.17-0.12
Colorado St.MWC0.220.2252.3850.420.010.00
South DakotaSum0.250.2041.6741.23-0.04-0.04
UCLAP120.180.2056.5253.270.020.01
GonzagaWCC0.170.2078.2676.810.090.11
Northern ColoradoBSky0.160.1928.5726.98-0.07-0.09
San Diego St.MWC0.170.1972.7372.110.080.09
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.240.1814.2915.46-0.17-0.12
WashingtonP120.180.1765.2261.100.060.04
North DakotaBSky0.110.1747.3749.93-0.01-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.180.1661.9059.540.040.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.170.1610.0013.14-0.14-0.12
OregonP120.170.1682.6179.220.110.09
Chicago St.WAC0.180.144.357.72-0.16-0.12
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1482.6181.120.080.09
UMKCWAC0.180.1428.5732.73-0.08-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.180.1420.0022.32-0.11-0.08
CaliforniaP120.120.1465.2262.830.040.03
Arizona St.P120.130.1354.1751.690.010.00
IPFWSum0.180.1370.8368.550.070.05
Oregon St.P120.130.1361.9056.430.030.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.1356.5256.320.010.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.1377.2776.870.030.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.160.1319.0525.89-0.10-0.06
ArizonaP120.170.1379.1778.350.100.07
New MexicoMWC0.110.1358.3360.730.020.03
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1345.8342.26-0.01-0.02
WyomingMWC0.170.1343.4842.49-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1024.0025.67-0.07-0.05
UTSACUSA0.120.1013.6413.63-0.09-0.08
StanfordP120.190.1050.0046.540.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.1060.0057.610.020.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.150.0935.0034.80-0.05-0.03
AuburnSEC0.070.0739.1335.43-0.01-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0737.5040.54-0.02-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0760.0060.080.010.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0736.3638.92-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.130.0752.9452.080.010.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0718.1821.15-0.04-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0754.1755.020.010.01
OklahomaB120.070.0786.9682.650.050.04
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0778.2677.860.040.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0776.1972.280.030.03
Texas TechB120.070.0759.0953.180.010.00
UMBCAE0.060.0724.0026.33-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.000.0782.6181.140.000.04
IonaMAAC0.000.0760.8760.720.000.01
IUPUISum0.060.0740.0039.81-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.110.0739.1341.10-0.02-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0752.0054.860.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0727.7829.16-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.060.0756.5257.010.010.01
DukeACC0.060.0675.0071.800.030.03
Seton HallBE0.060.0673.9169.970.030.03
VirginiaACC0.060.0683.3378.470.040.04
ColoradoP120.110.0669.5765.330.040.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.0672.0070.540.050.03
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0629.1726.74-0.02-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.069.0912.24-0.09-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0675.0076.250.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.0650.0049.790.00-0.00
KansasB120.060.0682.6179.190.040.04
LamarSlnd0.100.0630.0029.27-0.04-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0643.4850.65-0.010.00
OhioMAC0.100.0663.6461.420.030.01
RiceCUSA0.100.0628.5729.66-0.04-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0645.0049.25-0.01-0.00
UCFAmer0.060.0650.0044.860.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0479.1776.070.030.02
UABCUSA0.060.0482.6179.370.040.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0476.1973.420.030.02
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0342.8642.05-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0342.8639.22-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0313.6418.15-0.04-0.02
IllinoisB100.060.0345.8344.13-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.060.0373.9170.050.030.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0343.4842.66-0.01-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0329.1733.12-0.02-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0331.5832.01-0.02-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0331.8232.69-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0390.4886.910.050.02
ArmyPat0.060.0354.1754.580.000.00
BradleyMVC0.060.0312.5012.90-0.04-0.02
Michigan St.B100.060.0380.0081.600.030.02
North TexasCUSA0.060.0333.3333.04-0.02-0.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0360.0055.500.010.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0328.0030.73-0.02-0.01
SamfordSC0.060.0341.6742.60-0.01-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0368.1866.650.020.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0331.8230.06-0.02-0.01
TroySB0.060.0323.8126.71-0.03-0.01
Washington St.P120.060.0336.3631.98-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0340.0040.31-0.01-0.01