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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


UC Davis

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:75.0
Current RPI:75
Expected SOS:282
Current SOS:282
Current Record:23-6
Expected Record:23-6
Current Conf Record:15-3
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:127
Expected OOC SOS:330



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-675.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Davis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-20Eastern Illinois (173.0)OVCA61-63W100%0.0
11-22Furman (293.0)SCA55-58W100%0.0
11-26Utah St. (143.0)MWCH77-70W100%0.0
11-29Utah Valley (308.0)WACH64-43W100%0.0
12-3San Jose St. (336.0)MWCH70-56W100%0.0
12-6Idaho (267.0)BSkyA79-71L0%0.0
12-9Eastern Illinois (173.0)OVCH80-70W100%0.0
12-20Air Force (240.0)MWCA75-81W100%0.0
12-22Northern Colorado (245.0)BSkyA63-73W100%0.0
12-28Washington St. (169.0)P12A90-83L0%0.0
12-30Seattle (280.0)WACA76-67L0%0.0
1-7Cal St. Northridge (282.0)BWH71-61W100%0.0
1-10Long Beach St. (111.0)BWH73-67W100%0.0
1-15UC Riverside (234.0)BWA61-74W100%0.0
1-17Cal St. Fullerton (314.0)BWA68-79W100%0.0
1-22Hawaii (152.0)BWA84-76L0%0.0
1-29UC Santa Barbara (87.0)BWH70-64W100%0.0
1-31Cal Poly (199.0)BWH81-78W100%0.0
2-5UC Irvine (88.0)BWA56-75W100%0.0
2-7Cal St. Northridge (282.0)BWA55-68W100%0.0
2-12Cal St. Fullerton (314.0)BWH75-69W100%0.0
2-19Long Beach St. (111.0)BWA58-65W100%0.0
2-21Hawaii (152.0)BWH74-67W100%0.0
2-26UC Santa Barbara (87.0)BWA74-60L0%0.0
2-28Cal Poly (199.0)BWA56-66W100%0.0
3-5UC Riverside (234.0)BWH61-59W100%0.0
3-7UC Irvine (88.0)BWH80-61W100%0.0
3-12Cal St. Northridge (282.0)BWN71-67W100%0.0
3-13Hawaii (152.0)BWN58-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Davis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Davis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Davis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC DavisBW26.5726.5784.7384.7318.4618.46
HawaiiBW6.156.1560.0060.001.231.23
Cal St. NorthridgeBW6.066.0625.0025.00-3.03-3.03
UC IrvineBW4.564.5665.5265.521.411.41
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.544.5457.1457.140.650.65
Long Beach St.BW4.444.4448.2848.28-0.15-0.15
Cal St. FullertonBW4.424.4225.9325.93-2.13-2.13
UC RiversideBW4.414.4144.4444.44-0.49-0.49
Cal PolyBW4.404.4044.0044.00-0.53-0.53
Eastern IllinoisOVC3.453.4555.5655.560.380.38
SeattleWAC2.022.0246.4346.43-0.14-0.14
San Jose St.MWC1.961.960.000.00-1.96-1.96
Utah St.MWC1.881.8858.6258.620.320.32
Air ForceMWC1.841.8442.8642.86-0.26-0.26
Washington St.P121.841.8440.0040.00-0.37-0.37
Utah ValleyWAC1.811.8133.3333.33-0.60-0.60
IdahoBSky1.781.7837.0437.04-0.46-0.46
Northern ColoradoBSky1.751.7548.1548.15-0.06-0.06
FurmanSC1.721.7230.0030.00-0.69-0.69
Sacramento St.BSky0.390.3962.0762.070.090.09
NevadaMWC0.360.3624.1424.14-0.18-0.18
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.320.3236.6736.67-0.08-0.08
San Diego St.MWC0.320.3275.7675.760.160.16
Fresno St.MWC0.270.2743.3343.33-0.04-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.270.2748.1548.15-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.250.2572.7372.730.110.11
Boise St.MWC0.240.2474.1974.190.120.12
Colorado St.MWC0.240.2481.2581.250.150.15
Montana St.BSky0.240.2420.6920.69-0.14-0.14
New Mexico St.WAC0.240.2467.7467.740.080.08
New MexicoMWC0.240.2448.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.210.2140.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Idaho St.BSky0.210.2117.8617.86-0.14-0.14
WyomingMWC0.210.2171.8871.880.090.09
UCLAP120.200.2060.6160.610.040.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.200.2022.5822.58-0.11-0.11
ArizonaP120.200.2091.1891.180.160.16
ColoradoP120.190.1946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.180.1874.1974.190.090.09
Grand CanyonWAC0.180.1851.7251.720.010.01
UNLVMWC0.180.1853.1253.120.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.180.1838.4638.46-0.04-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
WashingtonP120.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
BYUWCC0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
MontanaBSky0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
Weber St.BSky0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.150.1517.2417.24-0.10-0.10
UMKCWAC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.150.1554.5554.550.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1465.5265.520.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
SamfordSC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.140.1486.6786.670.100.10
SouthernSWAC0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.120.1268.9768.970.050.05
Austin PeayOVC0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
BelmontOVC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Murray St.OVC0.120.1283.3383.330.080.08
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
USCP120.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
UtahP120.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
South DakotaSum0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.110.1129.6329.63-0.05-0.05
Oregon St.P120.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
XavierBE0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
GonzagaWCC0.090.0993.9493.940.080.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
WoffordSC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
MaristMAAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
DelawareCAA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
CreightonBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0675.8675.860.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
KansasB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
VermontAE0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
BradleyMVC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Green BayHorz0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
StanfordP120.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
SyracuseACC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
TexasB120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
VMISC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0327.2727.27-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00