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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


UC Davis

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:166.0
Current RPI:166
Expected SOS:315
Current SOS:315
Current Record:20-12
Expected Record:20-12
Current Conf Record:14-5
Expected Conf Record:14-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:17-6
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:183
Expected OOC SOS:262



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-12166.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Davis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Tennessee St. (162.0)OVCN64-78L0%0.0
11-12Santa Clara (126.0)WCCA58-63W100%0.0
11-13Northern Arizona (335.0)BSkyN76-89W100%0.0
11-21Sacramento St. (293.0)BSkyN72-81W100%0.0
11-24Weber St. (185.0)BSkyN86-58L0%0.0
11-25Drake (314.0)MVCN64-58W100%0.0
11-26Oakland (109.0)HorzN66-79L0%0.0
12-3Idaho (209.0)BSkyA68-66L0%0.0
12-10California (53.0)P12A86-61L0%0.0
12-14North Dakota St. (111.0)SumA74-70L0%0.0
12-22Air Force (250.0)MWCA77-67L0%0.0
12-28Seattle (287.0)WACA65-72W100%0.0
12-31Utah Valley (206.0)WACH83-69W100%0.0
1-4UC Santa Barbara (324.0)BWH73-47W100%0.0
1-7Cal Poly (297.0)BWH68-64W100%0.0
1-12UC Riverside (330.0)BWA61-55L0%0.0
1-14Cal St. Northridge (312.0)BWA68-71W100%0.0
1-21Hawaii (300.0)BWA70-76W100%0.0
1-28UC Irvine (135.0)BWH74-65W100%0.0
2-2Cal Poly (297.0)BWA74-70L0%0.0
2-4UC Santa Barbara (324.0)BWA64-67W100%0.0
2-8Cal St. Fullerton (269.0)BWH74-65W100%0.0
2-11UC Riverside (330.0)BWH77-63W100%0.0
2-16Long Beach St. (214.0)BWA78-69L0%0.0
2-18Cal St. Fullerton (269.0)BWA79-72L0%0.0
2-23Cal St. Northridge (312.0)BWH96-85W100%0.0
2-25Long Beach St. (214.0)BWH75-71W100%0.0
3-2Hawaii (300.0)BWH68-59W100%0.0
3-4UC Irvine (135.0)BWA79-49L0%0.0
3-9Cal Poly (297.0)BWN66-55W100%0.0
3-10Cal St. Fullerton (269.0)BWN66-64W100%0.0
3-11UC Irvine (135.0)BWN47-50W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Davis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Davis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Davis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC DavisBW26.5926.5968.6668.669.929.92
UC IrvineBW5.715.7160.0060.001.141.14
Cal St. FullertonBW5.605.6053.8553.850.430.43
Cal PolyBW5.565.5630.7730.77-2.14-2.14
Long Beach St.BW4.174.1740.0040.00-0.83-0.83
UC RiversideBW4.154.1520.0020.00-2.49-2.49
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.114.1138.4638.46-0.95-0.95
HawaiiBW4.084.0848.1548.15-0.15-0.15
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.054.0520.0020.00-2.43-2.43
Northern ArizonaBSky1.751.7526.6726.67-0.82-0.82
Santa ClaraWCC1.741.7451.6151.610.060.06
Utah ValleyWAC1.731.7344.4444.44-0.19-0.19
CaliforniaP121.711.7162.5062.500.430.43
SeattleWAC1.701.7038.4638.46-0.39-0.39
Weber St.BSky1.701.7055.1755.170.180.18
IdahoBSky1.691.6953.5753.570.120.12
Sacramento St.BSky1.671.6739.2939.29-0.36-0.36
Tennessee St.OVC1.611.6151.8551.850.060.06
Air ForceMWC1.561.5630.0030.00-0.62-0.62
DrakeMVC1.561.5621.4321.43-0.89-0.89
North Dakota St.Sum1.561.5659.2659.260.290.29
OaklandHorz1.561.5672.4172.410.700.70
Southern UtahBSky0.350.3512.9012.90-0.26-0.26
South Dakota St.Sum0.300.3050.0050.000.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.290.2964.5264.520.090.09
North DakotaBSky0.290.2967.8667.860.100.10
WashingtonP120.290.2929.0329.03-0.12-0.12
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.280.2867.8667.860.100.10
Nebraska OmahaSum0.280.2854.8454.840.030.03
MontanaBSky0.270.2750.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.270.2713.3313.33-0.20-0.20
Northern ColoradoBSky0.270.2733.3333.33-0.09-0.09
Portland St.BSky0.260.2642.8642.86-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.260.2683.3383.330.170.17
Grand CanyonWAC0.250.2568.9768.970.100.10
UCLAP120.240.2487.8887.880.180.18
PortlandWCC0.240.2429.0329.03-0.10-0.10
PacificWCC0.230.2331.2531.25-0.09-0.09
DenverSum0.220.2253.3353.330.010.01
UNLVMWC0.210.2134.3834.38-0.07-0.07
San DiegoWCC0.210.2140.0040.00-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.210.2162.0762.070.050.05
NevadaMWC0.210.2182.3582.350.130.13
PepperdineWCC0.200.2026.6726.67-0.10-0.10
Montana St.BSky0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.160.1678.5778.570.090.09
Fresno St.MWC0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
StanfordP120.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.140.1488.2488.240.110.11
UMKCWAC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.140.1410.3410.34-0.11-0.11
UTSACUSA0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Washington St.P120.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Arizona St.P120.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1229.4129.41-0.05-0.05
Oregon St.P120.120.1212.9012.90-0.09-0.09
Saint Mary'sWCC0.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
IonaMAAC0.110.1164.7164.710.030.03
South DakotaSum0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1181.2581.250.070.07
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1087.8887.880.080.08
San Jose St.MWC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.100.1096.9796.970.100.10
WyomingMWC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
AkronMAC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
UTEPCUSA0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
USCP120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
BradleyMVC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
OregonP120.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
SMUAmer0.060.0688.2488.240.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01