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Through games of Nov 23, 2014.


UC Davis

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:262.3
Current RPI:135
Expected SOS:317
Current SOS:275
Current Record:2-0
Expected Record:12-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-7
Current OOC Record:2-0
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:235
Expected OOC SOS:346



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-7126.00.01%
19-8125.40.14%
18-9146.10.56%
17-10166.81.42%
16-11184.83.46%
15-12203.96.20%
14-13223.710.67%
13-14242.015.23%
12-15261.716.80%
11-16279.616.65%
10-17295.913.37%
9-18309.28.26%
8-19322.14.62%
7-20331.01.84%
6-21338.20.62%
5-22342.70.12%
4-23343.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Davis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-20Eastern Illinois (272.7)OVCA61-63W100%0.0
11-22Furman (319.5)SCA55-58W100%0.0
11-26Utah St. (112.8)MWCH0-031%-6.1
11-29Utah Valley (229.7)WACH0-059%2.8
12-3San Jose St. (307.0)MWCH0-070%6.2
12-6Idaho (244.6)BSkyA0-036%-4.3
12-9Eastern Illinois (272.7)OVCH0-062%3.8
12-20Air Force (198.9)MWCA0-024%-8.6
12-22Northern Colorado (217.9)BSkyA0-029%-6.5
12-28Washington St. (220.6)P12A0-030%-6.4
12-30Seattle (264.4)WACA0-034%-5.0
1-7Cal St. Northridge (219.0)BWH0-055%1.6
1-10Long Beach St. (99.0)BWH0-033%-5.4
1-15UC Riverside (307.8)BWA0-049%-0.2
1-17Cal St. Fullerton (272.3)BWA0-038%-3.6
1-22Hawaii (216.9)BWA0-026%-7.6
1-29UC Santa Barbara (134.7)BWH0-034%-4.9
1-31Cal Poly (222.3)BWH0-056%1.8
2-5UC Irvine (101.5)BWA0-011%-14.9
2-7Cal St. Northridge (219.0)BWA0-032%-5.6
2-12Cal St. Fullerton (272.3)BWH0-062%3.6
2-19Long Beach St. (99.0)BWA0-015%-12.6
2-21Hawaii (216.9)BWH0-049%-0.4
2-26UC Santa Barbara (134.7)BWA0-016%-12.1
2-28Cal Poly (222.3)BWA0-033%-5.4
3-5UC Riverside (307.8)BWH0-072%6.9
3-7UC Irvine (101.5)BWH0-026%-7.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Davis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Davis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Davis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC DavisBW33.3326.54100.0045.6833.33-2.29
Cal St. FullertonBW0.004.7333.3334.60-0.00-1.46
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.004.720.0054.79-0.000.45
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.004.7040.0041.15-0.00-0.83
Long Beach St.BW0.004.6625.0048.35-0.00-0.15
UC RiversideBW0.004.660.0027.31-0.00-2.11
UC IrvineBW0.004.6533.3366.08-0.001.50
Cal PolyBW0.004.6550.0033.860.00-1.50
HawaiiBW0.004.6475.0053.320.000.31
Eastern IllinoisOVC25.003.700.0038.80-25.00-0.83
SeattleWAC0.002.1525.0044.42-0.00-0.24
San Jose St.MWC0.002.120.0016.89-0.00-1.40
Utah St.MWC0.002.0375.0061.030.000.45
Washington St.P120.001.9933.3326.04-0.00-0.95
Air ForceMWC0.001.9950.0044.180.00-0.23
Utah ValleyWAC0.001.9666.6748.520.00-0.06
IdahoBSky0.001.9250.0045.960.00-0.15
Northern ColoradoBSky0.001.890.0051.96-0.000.07
FurmanSC25.001.8550.0025.170.00-0.92
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.4450.0046.080.00-0.03
NevadaMWC0.000.4033.3347.23-0.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.33100.0081.220.000.21
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.3120.0035.47-0.00-0.09
Fresno St.MWC0.000.310.0032.88-0.00-0.11
OregonP120.000.27100.0069.430.000.10
Portland St.BSky0.000.27100.0051.200.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.2425.0066.60-0.000.08
Boise St.MWC0.000.2475.0063.000.000.06
Idaho St.BSky0.000.240.0028.67-0.00-0.10
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.2450.0045.730.00-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.230.0020.99-0.00-0.14
New MexicoMWC0.000.2360.0056.390.000.03
UCLAP120.000.23100.0065.190.000.07
Colorado St.MWC0.000.21100.0062.980.000.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.2150.0050.460.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.2075.0051.200.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.20100.0070.560.000.08
ArizonaP120.000.20100.0070.780.000.08
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.200.0040.51-0.00-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.18100.0072.270.000.08
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1766.6767.580.000.06
MontanaBSky0.000.1733.3351.73-0.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.17100.0067.070.000.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.17100.0044.560.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.170.0051.68-0.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.16100.0050.740.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.15100.0061.520.000.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.140.0031.79-0.00-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.000.1450.0070.910.000.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.140.0033.03-0.00-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1433.3342.08-0.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1450.0034.180.00-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.000.140.0028.27-0.00-0.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.140.0032.23-0.00-0.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.14100.0072.150.000.06
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.14100.0031.430.00-0.05
UMKCWAC0.000.1425.0044.56-0.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.1475.0069.780.000.05
Oregon St.P120.000.14100.0048.750.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.000.14100.0056.730.000.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.140.0017.97-0.00-0.09
ColoradoP120.000.1366.6760.880.000.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1333.3326.52-0.00-0.06
UtahP120.000.1366.6769.560.000.05
SamfordSC0.000.1340.0039.12-0.00-0.03
USCP120.000.1340.0028.63-0.00-0.06
LouisvilleACC0.000.13100.0078.240.000.07
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.130.0066.50-0.000.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1350.0063.270.000.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1120.0028.39-0.00-0.05
GonzagaWCC0.000.10100.0086.980.000.08
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1066.6747.490.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.100.0043.50-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1025.0056.01-0.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.100.0027.66-0.00-0.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1033.3349.87-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.100.0036.09-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0733.3344.23-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0775.0055.430.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0766.6753.760.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0766.6751.770.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.070.0038.43-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.070.0035.32-0.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0766.6774.140.000.03
CincinnatiAmer4.170.07100.0058.724.170.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0733.3348.37-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0063.150.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.070.0020.55-0.00-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.07100.0064.500.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0766.6749.820.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.000.0750.0063.140.000.02
KansasB120.000.0750.0062.480.000.02
Missouri St.MVC4.170.0750.0052.770.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0720.0053.22-0.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.070.0069.20-0.000.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.07100.0075.190.000.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.0766.6748.260.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0750.0069.230.000.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.070.0026.81-0.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0750.0039.080.00-0.02
VermontAE0.000.0733.3358.75-0.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0766.6762.360.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0733.3323.14-0.00-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.000.070.0046.47-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0750.0051.920.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0733.3353.66-0.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0733.3340.10-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.0733.3333.24-0.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.070.0029.00-0.00-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0775.0056.830.000.01
VMISC0.000.0733.3338.04-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.070.0049.00-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.000.0780.0077.570.000.04
TCUB120.000.07100.0054.380.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.070.0028.04-0.00-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.070.0024.68-0.00-0.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0766.6750.120.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.07100.0051.580.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0775.0070.150.000.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0775.0068.410.000.02
TexasB120.000.07100.0081.510.000.04
Western MichiganMAC0.000.07100.0053.380.000.00
XavierBE0.000.07100.0075.510.000.03
FIUCUSA0.000.06100.0043.590.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0666.6753.080.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0666.6758.100.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0666.6749.380.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.04100.0051.410.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0466.6748.940.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB4.170.0333.3321.72-1.39-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0073.710.000.02
ArmyPat0.000.03100.0066.600.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA4.170.0340.0054.34-0.830.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0085.260.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0019.35-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0350.0063.170.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0025.81-0.00-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0333.3334.44-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.030.0031.77-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0366.6746.580.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0333.3334.41-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0056.760.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0070.060.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0350.0037.730.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0366.6766.540.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0046.960.00-0.00