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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


UC Davis

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:281.0
Current RPI:281
Expected SOS:214
Current SOS:214
Current Record:9-19
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:6-11
Expected Conf Record:6-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-6
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:295
Expected OOC SOS:270



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-19281.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Davis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13North Dakota St. (120.0)SumH71-79L0%0.0
11-15Portland (249.0)WCCH79-66W100%0.0
11-24Sacramento St. (273.0)BSkyA84-79L0%0.0
11-28Utah Valley (272.0)WACA70-82W100%0.0
12-2Sacramento St. (273.0)BSkyH66-61W100%0.0
12-4Saint Mary's (38.0)WCCA81-67L0%0.0
12-15San Diego (302.0)WCCA61-55L0%0.0
12-19Air Force (226.0)MWCH60-67L0%0.0
12-22Idaho (191.0)BSkyH51-68L0%0.0
12-28Seattle (287.0)WACA80-75L0%0.0
12-30Boise St. (101.0)MWCA64-56L0%0.0
1-7UC Irvine (75.0)BWA76-55L0%0.0
1-9Long Beach St. (79.0)BWA59-47L0%0.0
1-14Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWH63-62W100%0.0
1-21UC Riverside (267.0)BWH58-55W100%0.0
1-23Hawaii (80.0)BWA78-62L0%0.0
1-27Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWH69-64W100%0.0
1-30Cal Poly (236.0)BWH66-52W100%0.0
2-4Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWA61-57L0%0.0
2-6UC Riverside (267.0)BWA49-50W100%0.0
2-11UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWH66-72L0%0.0
2-13Long Beach St. (79.0)BWH48-57L0%0.0
2-18Cal Poly (236.0)BWA58-53L0%0.0
2-20UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWA62-55L0%0.0
2-27UC Irvine (75.0)BWH61-62L0%0.0
3-3Hawaii (80.0)BWH65-67L0%0.0
3-5Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWA83-87W100%0.0
3-10UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWN87-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Davis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Davis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Davis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC DavisBW26.5026.5030.9530.95-10.10-10.10
UC Santa BarbaraBW6.296.2951.8551.850.230.23
HawaiiBW4.684.6882.1482.143.013.01
UC IrvineBW4.664.6670.0070.001.861.86
Long Beach St.BW4.654.6553.3353.330.310.31
Cal St. FullertonBW4.614.6126.9226.92-2.13-2.13
Cal PolyBW4.554.5526.9226.92-2.10-2.10
UC RiversideBW4.534.5341.3841.38-0.78-0.78
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.494.4930.7730.77-1.73-1.73
Sacramento St.BSky3.693.6940.7440.74-0.68-0.68
SeattleWAC2.072.0740.7440.74-0.38-0.38
PortlandWCC2.062.0636.6736.67-0.55-0.55
Saint Mary'sWCC2.062.0683.3383.331.371.37
San DiegoWCC2.032.0325.0025.00-1.01-1.01
IdahoBSky1.911.9160.0060.000.380.38
Boise St.MWC1.901.9058.6258.620.330.33
Utah ValleyWAC1.881.8834.6234.62-0.58-0.58
Air ForceMWC1.821.8237.9337.93-0.44-0.44
North Dakota St.Sum1.791.7956.6756.670.240.24
Loyola MarymountWCC0.570.5743.3343.33-0.08-0.08
San FranciscoWCC0.390.3948.2848.28-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.360.3623.0823.08-0.19-0.19
Portland St.BSky0.340.3437.9337.93-0.08-0.08
Montana St.BSky0.330.3343.3343.33-0.04-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.330.3356.6756.670.040.04
Idaho St.BSky0.310.3148.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.310.3172.4172.410.140.14
MontanaBSky0.300.3062.0762.070.070.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.290.2933.3333.33-0.10-0.10
USCP120.280.2863.6463.640.080.08
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.270.2750.0050.000.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.270.2767.7467.740.100.10
UNLVMWC0.270.2751.6151.610.010.01
BYUWCC0.270.2768.7568.750.100.10
Southern UtahBSky0.240.2414.2914.29-0.17-0.17
NevadaMWC0.240.2456.6756.670.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.240.2448.2848.28-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.230.2378.1278.120.130.13
Colorado St.MWC0.230.2350.0050.000.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.210.2174.1974.190.100.10
San Jose St.MWC0.210.2121.4321.43-0.12-0.12
DenverSum0.210.2151.6151.610.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.190.1918.5218.52-0.12-0.12
WashingtonP120.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
UCLAP120.180.1846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.180.1827.5927.59-0.08-0.08
San Diego St.MWC0.180.1871.8871.880.080.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.180.1877.4277.420.100.10
UMKCWAC0.160.1632.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.160.1679.3179.310.090.09
Oregon St.P120.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
Arizona St.P120.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
CaliforniaP120.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.1510.7110.71-0.12-0.12
North DakotaBSky0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
OregonP120.140.1481.8281.820.090.09
Chicago St.WAC0.130.133.453.45-0.12-0.12
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1222.8622.86-0.07-0.07
New MexicoMWC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
WyomingMWC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0958.6258.620.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0924.2424.24-0.05-0.05
StanfordP120.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
IonaMAAC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
VermontAE0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
UMBCAE0.060.0621.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0657.6957.690.010.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
OklahomaB120.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Texas TechB120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
ColoradoP120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0629.1729.17-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
KansasB120.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Seton HallBE0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
UCFAmer0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
DrexelCAA0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01