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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


UC Davis

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:106.2
Current RPI:71
Expected SOS:187
Current SOS:121
Current Record:10-7
Expected Record:17-11
Current Conf Record:3-2
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:53
Expected OOC SOS:76



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-755.70.96%
20-866.46.50%
19-979.317.58%
18-1095.326.81%
17-11113.924.30%
16-12134.115.36%
15-13154.66.28%
14-14173.71.82%
13-15192.50.35%
12-16209.00.02%
11-17218.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Davis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Northern Colorado (145.3)BSkyA59-74W100%0.0
11-15Pacific (173.3)WCCA58-62W100%0.0
11-18Utah Valley (84.1)WACA80-71L0%0.0
11-21Sacramento St. (279.9)BSkyN64-47W100%0.0
11-26Washington (76.1)P12A77-70L0%0.0
11-29Northern Colorado (145.3)BSkyH56-51W100%0.0
12-2Washington St. (171.8)P12A67-81W100%0.0
12-6Pacific (173.3)WCCH71-67W100%0.0
12-15San Francisco (171.7)WCCA74-61L0%0.0
12-19Nevada (14.5)MWCA88-73L0%0.0
12-22Lamar (226.5)SlndN77-68W100%0.0
12-23Radford (142.7)BSthN62-72L0%0.0
1-4UC Irvine (175.4)BWH64-53W100%0.0
1-11UC Riverside (302.5)BWA65-75W100%0.0
1-13Cal St. Fullerton (160.5)BWA85-70L0%0.0
1-17Long Beach St. (191.7)BWH84-75W100%0.0
1-20Hawaii (160.0)BWA77-72L0%0.0
1-25Cal St. Northridge (335.1)BWH0-091%15.2
1-27Cal Poly (282.2)BWH0-087%12.3
2-1Cal St. Northridge (335.1)BWA0-079%8.8
2-3Long Beach St. (191.7)BWA0-055%1.3
2-8UC Santa Barbara (107.8)BWH0-058%2.3
2-10Cal St. Fullerton (160.5)BWH0-073%6.7
2-15Cal Poly (282.2)BWA0-070%5.9
2-17UC Santa Barbara (107.8)BWA0-036%-4.1
2-24UC Riverside (302.5)BWH0-086%12.2
3-1Hawaii (160.0)BWH0-069%5.5
3-3UC Irvine (175.4)BWA0-045%-1.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Davis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Davis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Davis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC DavisBW26.6826.5168.4968.279.879.69
UC RiversideBW3.344.5518.7525.15-2.08-2.26
Cal St. FullertonBW3.424.5553.3356.240.230.57
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.504.5270.5970.910.211.89
HawaiiBW3.174.5266.6763.891.061.25
Long Beach St.BW3.364.5042.1144.81-0.53-0.47
UC IrvineBW3.184.5031.5840.85-1.17-0.82
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.414.4917.6519.63-0.26-2.73
Cal PolyBW0.264.4623.5328.71-0.14-1.90
PacificWCC6.043.7250.0047.670.00-0.17
Northern ColoradoBSky5.883.6066.6761.531.960.83
San FranciscoWCC3.242.1247.3746.97-0.17-0.13
Sacramento St.BSky3.112.0817.6525.31-2.01-1.02
Utah ValleyWAC3.302.0564.7164.730.970.60
NevadaMWC3.402.0385.0081.542.381.28
WashingtonP123.021.8568.4260.181.110.38
RadfordBSth3.081.8455.5657.410.340.27
Washington St.P123.011.8450.0042.860.00-0.26
LamarSlnd2.941.7953.3357.010.200.25
PepperdineWCC0.630.4910.5318.34-0.50-0.31
MontanaBSky0.490.4770.5973.150.200.22
Loyola MarymountWCC0.470.4027.7829.10-0.21-0.17
Idaho St.BSky0.410.3843.7540.91-0.05-0.07
CaliforniaP120.330.3836.8431.11-0.09-0.14
IdahoBSky0.480.3764.7166.850.140.12
Saint Mary'sWCC0.620.3790.4888.970.500.29
StanfordP120.450.3355.0050.330.040.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.400.3138.8946.05-0.09-0.02
PortlandWCC0.390.2827.7827.26-0.18-0.13
Santa ClaraWCC0.140.2733.3332.96-0.05-0.09
North DakotaBSky0.350.2629.4134.78-0.14-0.08
Montana St.BSky0.250.2550.0047.650.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.140.2466.6763.450.050.07
San DiegoWCC0.220.2463.1657.530.060.04
Oregon St.P120.150.2457.8950.860.020.00
Weber St.BSky0.340.2256.2557.430.040.03
BYUWCC0.300.2180.9576.240.190.11
Arizona St.P120.290.2178.9576.160.170.11
GonzagaWCC0.290.2180.9583.260.180.14
USCP120.240.1971.4368.300.100.07
Portland St.BSky0.170.1958.8263.210.030.05
SeattleWAC0.240.1957.8954.500.040.02
UtahP120.240.1863.1659.720.060.04
ColoradoP120.320.1860.0053.720.060.01
WyomingMWC0.390.1861.1156.790.090.02
UNLVMWC0.320.1873.6865.250.150.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.1511.1115.30-0.06-0.11
Southern UtahBSky0.070.1537.5033.77-0.02-0.05
Air ForceMWC0.300.1537.5031.78-0.08-0.06
Colorado St.MWC0.160.1545.0041.31-0.02-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.1370.0071.220.030.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.1325.0039.91-0.05-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.090.1352.9460.230.010.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.240.1333.3339.89-0.08-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.160.1383.3384.250.100.09
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.160.1345.0045.03-0.02-0.01
DenverSum0.250.1233.3336.47-0.08-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.150.1250.0052.500.000.01
ArizonaP120.070.1280.0078.940.040.07
UCLAP120.220.1265.0062.050.070.03
OregonP120.000.1265.0063.810.000.03
San Diego St.MWC0.160.1258.8262.830.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.140.1245.0045.47-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.170.1029.4133.20-0.07-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.170.1043.7549.11-0.02-0.00
DavidsonA100.160.0958.8261.440.030.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0925.0028.02-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.150.0975.0065.320.080.03
Boise St.MWC0.150.0978.9576.980.090.05
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0766.6755.900.030.01
HarvardIvy0.090.0737.5046.70-0.02-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.180.0727.7838.12-0.08-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.075.8819.39-0.08-0.04
HowardMEAC0.090.0710.5326.29-0.07-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.077.6920.08-0.08-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0728.5731.240.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.090.0777.7870.410.050.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0780.0078.870.000.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.077.6923.24-0.08-0.04
TroySB0.090.0738.8944.43-0.02-0.01
UMKCWAC0.080.0721.0524.76-0.05-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.080.070.003.06-0.08-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.170.0655.5657.250.020.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0642.1139.930.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0662.5058.710.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0666.6765.630.000.02
George MasonA100.000.0645.0041.290.00-0.01
MichiganB100.090.0676.1970.800.050.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0633.3340.350.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0644.4450.310.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0640.0030.880.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0670.0070.610.000.03
South DakotaSum0.170.0673.6872.400.080.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0642.1143.500.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.170.0641.1838.47-0.03-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0668.4263.970.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0660.0062.010.000.02
ValparaisoMVC0.090.0647.3748.77-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.170.0621.0523.52-0.10-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.170.0645.0049.28-0.02-0.00
DuquesneA100.170.0670.0058.090.070.01
UTEPCUSA0.170.0633.3334.10-0.06-0.02
CampbellBSth0.080.0647.0647.41-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0625.0031.44-0.04-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0638.8940.78-0.02-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0643.7549.220.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.080.0650.0054.180.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0627.7827.11-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0652.6358.610.000.01
WinthropBSth0.080.0650.0059.430.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.080.0616.6716.15-0.05-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.160.0655.0052.480.020.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.160.0650.0051.640.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.150.0670.0060.400.060.01
CanisiusMAAC0.150.0661.9063.170.040.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0646.6747.00-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.070.0685.7183.760.050.04
MissouriSEC0.070.0666.6763.150.020.02
NebraskaB100.070.0663.6459.480.020.01
RiderMAAC0.070.0665.0065.330.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0672.2272.970.030.03
Texas St.SB0.150.0657.8950.210.020.00
West VirginiaB120.070.0680.0076.040.040.03
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0611.7612.80-0.05-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0352.9452.670.000.00
DukeACC0.080.0389.4785.240.060.02
KentuckySEC0.080.0373.6868.040.040.01
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0337.5045.24-0.02-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0350.0051.390.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.037.1414.820.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0352.9455.030.010.00
TulsaAmer0.090.0355.0053.330.010.00
UTSACUSA0.080.0341.1839.66-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0342.1132.46-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.080.0352.6351.090.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.080.0325.0028.25-0.04-0.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0381.8276.870.050.02
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0336.8435.58-0.02-0.01
VMISC0.080.0325.0024.14-0.04-0.02
IUPUIHorz0.080.0327.7829.82-0.03-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0352.9459.250.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0320.0040.93-0.05-0.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0371.4374.670.030.01
KansasB120.070.0384.2179.760.050.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0316.6724.90-0.05-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0370.0060.470.030.01
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0347.3746.09-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.070.0345.0048.57-0.01-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.070.0383.3381.450.050.02
TCUB120.070.0375.0067.830.040.01
Texas TechB120.070.0378.9571.750.040.01