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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


UC Davis

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:154.8
Current RPI:171
Expected SOS:243
Current SOS:255
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:15-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:115
Expected OOC SOS:189



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-445.30.07%
22-550.40.16%
21-664.00.85%
20-776.72.34%
19-890.55.75%
18-9105.69.84%
17-10124.614.65%
16-11143.217.26%
15-12163.616.41%
14-13184.814.13%
13-14205.09.63%
12-15225.55.44%
11-16244.72.23%
10-17264.90.90%
9-18281.90.21%
8-19295.70.10%
6-21322.00.01%
5-22332.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Davis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Northern Colorado (254.9)BSkyA59-74W100%0.0
11-15Pacific (229.0)WCCA58-62W100%0.0
11-18Utah Valley (141.8)WACA80-71L0%0.0
11-21Sacramento St. (264.8)BSkyN0-074%7.8
11-26Washington (146.1)P12A0-030%-6.4
11-29Northern Colorado (254.9)BSkyH0-079%9.8
12-2Washington St. (180.4)P12A0-039%-3.5
12-6Pacific (229.0)WCCH0-070%6.4
12-15San Francisco (133.9)WCCA0-031%-6.0
12-19Nevada (20.5)MWCA0-010%-15.7
12-22Lamar (153.4)SlndN0-055%1.6
1-4UC Irvine (114.9)BWH0-054%1.2
1-11UC Riverside (276.4)BWA0-064%4.2
1-13Cal St. Fullerton (247.8)BWA0-058%2.4
1-17Long Beach St. (152.8)BWH0-058%2.5
1-20Hawaii (214.5)BWA0-050%-0.1
1-25Cal St. Northridge (271.1)BWH0-076%8.6
1-27Cal Poly (242.5)BWH0-075%8.3
2-1Cal St. Northridge (271.1)BWA0-059%2.6
2-3Long Beach St. (152.8)BWA0-039%-3.5
2-8UC Santa Barbara (198.5)BWH0-066%4.8
2-10Cal St. Fullerton (247.8)BWH0-076%8.4
2-15Cal Poly (242.5)BWA0-058%2.3
2-17UC Santa Barbara (198.5)BWA0-046%-1.2
2-24UC Riverside (276.4)BWH0-080%10.2
3-1Hawaii (214.5)BWH0-069%6.0
3-3UC Irvine (114.9)BWA0-034%-4.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Davis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UC Davis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UC Davis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UC DavisBW32.6426.5982.3561.9521.126.36
UC RiversideBW0.004.7833.3332.140.00-1.71
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.004.7433.3350.700.000.07
HawaiiBW0.004.73100.0054.580.000.43
Cal St. FullertonBW0.004.730.0035.330.00-1.39
UC IrvineBW0.004.7233.3353.120.000.29
Long Beach St.BW0.004.7150.0051.030.000.10
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.004.710.0041.500.00-0.80
Cal PolyBW0.004.6733.3338.420.00-1.08
PacificWCC16.673.860.0034.86-16.67-1.17
Northern ColoradoBSky16.673.7450.0041.080.00-0.67
San FranciscoWCC0.002.1766.6755.960.000.26
Utah ValleyWAC16.672.1533.3358.90-5.560.38
Sacramento St.BSky0.002.090.0034.240.00-0.66
NevadaMWC2.782.08100.0078.532.781.19
WashingtonP120.001.9250.0046.030.00-0.15
Washington St.P120.001.91100.0041.060.00-0.34
LamarSlnd0.001.85100.0066.420.000.61
PepperdineWCC2.780.520.0031.91-2.78-0.19
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.4350.0034.730.00-0.13
MontanaBSky0.000.4350.0060.130.000.09
CaliforniaP120.000.4166.6740.170.00-0.08
Idaho St.BSky2.080.400.0028.17-2.08-0.18
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.36100.0088.360.000.28
StanfordP122.780.3675.0049.861.39-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.3333.3351.560.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.3250.0060.380.000.07
PortlandWCC0.000.300.0029.710.00-0.12
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.290.0042.340.00-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.000.2766.6746.830.00-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.2733.3350.350.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.2650.0060.060.000.05
San DiegoWCC0.000.25100.0052.950.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.2366.6766.020.000.07
BYUWCC0.000.2266.6767.320.000.08
Arizona St.P120.000.22100.0062.760.000.06
GonzagaWCC0.000.22100.0086.180.000.16
USCP120.000.21100.0073.190.000.10
UtahP120.000.20100.0067.160.000.07
Portland St.BSky0.000.20100.0048.130.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.2033.3350.150.000.00
ColoradoP122.780.19100.0052.862.780.01
Oregon St.P120.000.1966.6742.260.00-0.03
UNLVMWC0.000.19100.0064.720.000.05
WyomingMWC0.000.19100.0057.360.000.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.1733.3327.100.00-0.08
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1666.6742.170.00-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.16100.0044.740.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.140.0033.850.00-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.140.0023.910.00-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.13100.0075.130.000.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.130.0035.450.00-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1350.0069.320.000.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1350.0035.330.00-0.04
DenverSum0.000.130.0038.100.00-0.03
ArizonaP120.000.13100.0083.700.000.09
UCLAP120.000.13100.0064.910.000.04
OregonP120.000.13100.0076.200.000.07
Utah St.MWC0.000.1250.0050.190.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.110.0047.180.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.100.0029.630.00-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.100.0042.670.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.100.0024.440.00-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.100.0035.760.00-0.03
Kansas St.B120.000.10100.0062.930.000.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0950.0062.630.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.09100.0066.490.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.08100.0053.240.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.070.0046.080.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.07100.0074.500.000.04
TroySB0.000.0733.3346.410.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0733.3347.670.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0766.6768.790.000.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.070.0038.960.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.070.0023.170.00-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.000.070.0051.010.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.07100.0076.260.000.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.07100.0069.350.000.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.070.0046.000.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.07100.0071.560.000.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.070.0051.690.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.007.670.00-0.06
George MasonA100.000.0775.0048.930.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0733.3335.150.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0733.3353.520.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0733.3334.560.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.070.0036.490.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.07100.0071.010.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.070.0026.150.00-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.070.0035.610.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.07100.0047.670.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.07100.0053.280.000.00
MichiganB100.000.07100.0061.710.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0750.0077.820.000.04
MissouriSEC0.000.0766.6757.890.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0766.6767.630.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.070.0034.600.00-0.02
ValparaisoMVC0.000.07100.0059.760.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0766.6771.200.000.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.070.0027.250.00-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.06100.0059.250.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0666.6755.210.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0666.6761.500.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3346.330.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0633.3346.090.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0650.0046.150.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.0021.010.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.040.0036.830.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.040.0042.810.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0450.0043.710.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.040.0022.920.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.040.0044.130.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0450.0048.690.00-0.00
DukeACC2.080.03100.0083.582.080.02
KentuckySEC2.080.0375.0071.831.040.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3338.350.00-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.000.030.0032.200.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0366.6759.540.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0050.360.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3359.680.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0375.0071.560.000.01
KansasB120.000.03100.0082.910.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.030.0031.380.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0375.0064.570.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0375.0061.940.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.03100.0070.080.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0333.3352.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0350.0050.570.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0350.0073.230.000.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0061.150.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.03100.0062.630.000.01