UC Davis

Conference:	BW
Expected RPI:	234.0
Current RPI:	234
Expected SOS:	276
Current SOS:	276
Current Record:	14-17
Expected Record:	14-17
Current Conf Record:	9-10
Expected Conf Record:	9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-4
Current OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC RPI:	256
Expected OOC SOS:	289

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-17	234.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Davis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Oklahoma St. (27.0)	B12	A	73-65	L	0%
11-18	Northern Arizona (255.0)	BSky	H	82-85	L	0%
11-20	Sacramento St. (283.0)	BSky	A	76-87	W	100%
11-28	Nevada (171.0)	MWC	A	84-83	L	0%
12-1	Idaho (195.0)	WAC	A	73-66	L	0%
12-5	San Jose St. (261.0)	WAC	H	64-73	L	0%
12-15	Stanford (77.0)	P12	A	75-52	L	0%
12-17	Eastern Washington (321.0)	BSky	H	87-65	W	100%
12-20	Southern Illinois (192.0)	MVC	N	70-78	W	100%
12-21	Utah St. (108.0)	WAC	A	73-61	L	0%
12-22	Nicholls St. (296.0)	Slnd	N	82-71	W	100%
12-29	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	A	69-58	L	0%
1-5	Pacific (97.0)	BW	H	64-74	L	0%
1-10	Cal Poly (164.0)	BW	H	69-67	W	100%
1-12	UC Santa Barbara (244.0)	BW	H	59-66	L	0%
1-17	Cal St. Northridge (254.0)	BW	A	71-74	W	100%
1-19	Hawaii (210.0)	BW	A	82-93	W	100%
1-24	Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)	BW	H	88-95	L	0%
1-26	UC Riverside (338.0)	BW	H	79-72	W	100%
2-2	Pacific (97.0)	BW	A	77-64	L	0%
2-7	UC Santa Barbara (244.0)	BW	A	56-64	W	100%
2-9	Cal Poly (164.0)	BW	A	68-53	L	0%
2-14	Hawaii (210.0)	BW	H	89-65	W	100%
2-16	Cal St. Northridge (254.0)	BW	H	73-61	W	100%
2-20	Long Beach St. (115.0)	BW	A	71-65	L	0%
2-23	Northern Colorado (257.0)	BSky	H	79-78	W	100%
2-28	UC Riverside (338.0)	BW	A	52-59	W	100%
3-2	Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)	BW	A	68-71	W	100%
3-7	Long Beach St. (115.0)	BW	H	76-77	L	0%
3-9	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	H	85-88	L	0%
3-14	Cal Poly (164.0)	BW	N	64-41	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Davis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UC Davis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UC Davis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UC Davis	BW	26.43	26.43	46.36	46.36	-1.93	-1.93
Cal Poly	BW	5.80	5.80	53.85	53.85	0.45	0.45
Pacific	BW	4.37	4.37	60.00	60.00	0.87	0.87
UC Irvine	BW	4.34	4.34	51.61	51.61	0.14	0.14
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	4.28	4.28	39.29	39.29	-0.92	-0.92
Long Beach St.	BW	4.25	4.25	53.57	53.57	0.30	0.30
UC Santa Barbara	BW	4.22	4.22	29.63	29.63	-1.72	-1.72
Hawaii	BW	4.22	4.22	57.14	57.14	0.60	0.60
Cal St. Northridge	BW	4.17	4.17	44.44	44.44	-0.46	-0.46
UC Riverside	BW	4.16	4.16	15.38	15.38	-2.88	-2.88
Northern Colorado	BSky	1.92	1.92	39.29	39.29	-0.41	-0.41
Eastern Washington	BSky	1.92	1.92	33.33	33.33	-0.64	-0.64
Sacramento St.	BSky	1.86	1.86	46.15	46.15	-0.14	-0.14
Nevada	MWC	1.85	1.85	34.48	34.48	-0.57	-0.57
Northern Arizona	BSky	1.83	1.83	32.26	32.26	-0.65	-0.65
Utah St.	WAC	1.78	1.78	65.52	65.52	0.55	0.55
San Jose St.	WAC	1.75	1.75	25.93	25.93	-0.84	-0.84
Idaho	WAC	1.75	1.75	35.71	35.71	-0.50	-0.50
Nicholls St.	Slnd	1.67	1.67	31.03	31.03	-0.63	-0.63
Southern Illinois	MVC	1.67	1.67	44.83	44.83	-0.17	-0.17
Stanford	P12	1.67	1.67	54.84	54.84	0.16	0.16
Oklahoma St.	B12	1.61	1.61	74.19	74.19	0.78	0.78
Fresno St.	MWC	0.43	0.43	32.14	32.14	-0.15	-0.15
Southern Utah	BSky	0.35	0.35	31.03	31.03	-0.13	-0.13
Weber St.	BSky	0.35	0.35	80.00	80.00	0.21	0.21
Idaho St.	BSky	0.33	0.33	17.24	17.24	-0.21	-0.21
Portland St.	BSky	0.30	0.30	23.08	23.08	-0.16	-0.16
UCLA	P12	0.29	0.29	73.53	73.53	0.14	0.14
Montana St.	BSky	0.27	0.27	39.29	39.29	-0.06	-0.06
Montana	BSky	0.27	0.27	79.31	79.31	0.16	0.16
North Dakota	BSky	0.27	0.27	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.27	0.27	63.33	63.33	0.07	0.07
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.27	0.27	59.38	59.38	0.05	0.05
St. Mary's	WCC	0.24	0.24	81.25	81.25	0.15	0.15
Texas St.	WAC	0.22	0.22	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
Wyoming	MWC	0.22	0.22	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Seattle	WAC	0.22	0.22	24.14	24.14	-0.11	-0.11
Pepperdine	WCC	0.22	0.22	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Southern California	P12	0.21	0.21	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.19	0.19	69.70	69.70	0.08	0.08
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.19	0.19	31.25	31.25	-0.07	-0.07
Denver	WAC	0.19	0.19	70.00	70.00	0.08	0.08
Washington	P12	0.19	0.19	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.18	0.18	72.73	72.73	0.08	0.08
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.17	0.17	80.65	80.65	0.10	0.10
New Orleans	ind	0.17	0.17	18.18	18.18	-0.11	-0.11
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.16	0.16	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
California	P12	0.16	0.16	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.14	0.14	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	65.52	65.52	0.04	0.04
Illinois St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.14	0.14	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Utah	P12	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.14	0.14	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.13	0.13	17.86	17.86	-0.09	-0.09
Texas Christian	B12	0.13	0.13	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.11	0.11	85.19	85.19	0.08	0.08
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
San Francisco	WCC	0.10	0.10	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Wichita St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Washington St.	P12	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.08	0.08	93.75	93.75	0.07	0.07
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.05	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00