Texas Arlington

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	100.3
Current RPI:	119
Expected SOS:	281
Current SOS:	310
Current Record:	16-5
Expected Record:	22-7
Current Conf Record:	9-0
Expected Conf Record:	15-1
Probability of Auto Bid:	41.47%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	16-2
Current OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC RPI:	112
Expected OOC SOS:	196

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
24-5	79.7	8.12%
23-6	89.3	25.71%
22-7	99.8	34.63%
21-8	110.6	22.18%
20-9	123.6	7.86%
19-10	137.9	1.40%
18-11	159.0	0.09%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Arlington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-19	Louisiana Tech (204.7)	WAC	H	68-61	W	100%	0.0
11-22	North Texas (203.3)	SB	H	97-64	W	100%	0.0
11-23	Baylor (6.8)	B12	A	75-65	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Samford (254.7)	SC	H	69-71	L	0%	0.0
11-28	Texas Pan American (309.3)	GWC	H	92-60	W	100%	0.0
12-6	Texas (58.4)	B12	A	80-62	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Tulsa (105.7)	CUSA	A	80-75	L	0%	0.0
12-20	Utah St. (132.3)	WAC	A	73-69	L	0%	0.0
12-21	Kent St. (84.8)	MAC	N	74-73	W	100%	0.0
12-22	St. Peter's (280.4)	MAAC	N	68-73	W	100%	0.0
12-29	Texas Pan American (309.3)	GWC	A	56-83	W	100%	0.0
1-4	Southeastern Louisiana (326.2)	Slnd	H	85-46	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Nicholls St. (314.5)	Slnd	H	85-55	W	100%	0.0
1-11	Sam Houston St. (286.0)	Slnd	H	66-40	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Lamar (102.9)	Slnd	A	82-91	W	100%	0.0
1-18	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (314.7)	Slnd	A	73-77	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Stephen F. Austin (244.7)	Slnd	H	63-54	W	100%	0.0
1-24	Houston Baptist (314.2)	GWC	A	74-79	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Texas St. (316.7)	Slnd	A	79-82	W	100%	0.0
2-1	Texas San Antonio (169.2)	Slnd	H	67-66	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Central Arkansas (299.5)	Slnd	A	61-69	W	100%	0.0
2-8	Sam Houston St. (286.0)	Slnd	A	0-0		83%	10.5
2-11	Texas St. (316.7)	Slnd	H	0-0		95%	17.8
2-15	Stephen F. Austin (244.7)	Slnd	A	0-0		64%	4.0
2-18	Weber St. (84.1)	BSky	A	0-0		47%	-0.8
2-22	McNeese St. (218.1)	Slnd	A	0-0		78%	8.5
2-25	Northwestern St. (178.3)	Slnd	H	0-0		88%	12.6
2-29	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (314.7)	Slnd	H	0-0		96%	19.1
3-3	Texas San Antonio (169.2)	Slnd	A	0-0		51%	0.2

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Arlington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Texas Arlington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Texas Arlington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Texas Arlington	Slnd	26.33	26.28	80.00	80.58	15.80	16.07
Texas St.	Slnd	2.98	4.26	23.53	29.70	-1.58	-1.73
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	2.98	4.23	27.78	31.50	-1.32	-1.57
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	2.87	4.18	19.05	22.50	-1.78	-2.30
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	2.87	4.18	60.00	63.43	0.57	1.12
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	2.82	4.13	50.00	53.50	0.00	0.29
Texas Pan American	GWC	4.94	3.61	21.05	26.58	-2.86	-1.69
Lamar	Slnd	2.86	2.43	65.00	69.63	0.86	0.95
Nicholls St.	Slnd	2.92	2.42	26.32	24.67	-1.38	-1.23
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	2.86	2.41	29.41	30.76	-1.18	-0.93
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.55	2.39	55.00	56.03	0.05	0.29
Central Arkansas	Slnd	2.69	2.38	29.41	31.07	-1.11	-0.90
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.49	2.38	41.18	43.44	-0.09	-0.31
Texas	B12	2.68	1.98	59.09	60.08	0.49	0.40
Houston Baptist	GWC	2.62	1.95	26.32	29.66	-1.24	-0.79
Utah St.	WAC	2.60	1.93	47.83	51.31	-0.11	0.05
Louisiana Tech	WAC	2.50	1.91	45.00	45.00	-0.25	-0.19
Samford	SC	2.50	1.85	30.00	32.77	-1.00	-0.64
North Texas	SB	2.50	1.82	52.63	52.01	0.13	0.07
St. Peter's	MAAC	2.49	1.78	22.73	25.43	-1.36	-0.88
Kent St.	MAC	2.48	1.78	75.00	71.52	1.24	0.77
Baylor	B12	2.43	1.78	90.48	83.29	1.97	1.18
Tulsa	CUSA	2.45	1.76	59.09	57.64	0.44	0.27
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	1.75	80.00	77.80	0.03	0.97
Houston	CUSA	0.29	0.31	47.62	44.63	-0.01	-0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.36	0.30	31.82	25.98	-0.13	-0.15
Texas A&M	B12	0.35	0.30	52.38	46.15	0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.32	0.26	45.45	40.70	-0.03	-0.05
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.29	0.22	54.17	54.75	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.30	0.22	8.70	8.99	-0.25	-0.18
North Dakota	GWC	0.17	0.22	33.33	41.31	-0.06	-0.04
Toledo	MAC	0.24	0.22	38.10	40.81	-0.06	-0.04
Utah Valley	GWC	0.22	0.22	54.55	57.69	0.02	0.03
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.18	0.22	43.48	43.31	-0.02	-0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.16	0.21	27.27	26.95	-0.07	-0.10
Rice	CUSA	0.27	0.21	47.62	46.46	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.17	0.19	4.76	9.95	-0.16	-0.16
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.17	0.19	33.33	38.38	-0.06	-0.05
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.29	0.19	54.55	56.09	0.03	0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.17	0.19	43.48	44.25	-0.02	-0.02
Fresno St.	WAC	0.21	0.18	39.13	44.52	-0.05	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.30	0.16	37.50	38.33	-0.07	-0.04
Tulane	CUSA	0.22	0.15	61.90	58.59	0.05	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.17	0.15	38.10	42.78	-0.04	-0.02
Denver	SB	0.16	0.15	70.83	72.23	0.07	0.07
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.16	0.15	69.57	68.90	0.06	0.06
Missouri	B12	0.16	0.14	91.30	87.18	0.13	0.11
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.14	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.07	0.13	30.00	33.20	-0.03	-0.04
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.13	13.64	16.14	-0.05	-0.09
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.11	0.13	47.83	47.87	-0.00	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.12	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.05
Mercer	ASun	0.17	0.12	70.83	71.64	0.07	0.05
Texas Christian	MWC	0.22	0.12	57.14	49.54	0.03	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.16	0.12	78.26	72.34	0.09	0.05
Niagara	MAAC	0.11	0.12	37.50	41.54	-0.03	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.22	0.12	61.90	55.14	0.05	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.11	0.12	47.62	48.82	-0.01	-0.00
Hawaii	WAC	0.11	0.12	57.14	53.12	0.02	0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.11	0.12	47.62	51.08	-0.01	0.00
Nevada	WAC	0.16	0.12	80.95	76.42	0.10	0.06
West Virginia	BE	0.16	0.12	65.22	65.17	0.05	0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.11	73.91	68.43	0.05	0.04
Kansas	B12	0.11	0.11	78.26	78.39	0.06	0.06
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.11	72.73	68.28	0.05	0.04
Florida International	SB	0.07	0.10	33.33	37.16	-0.02	-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.13	0.10	47.62	47.18	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.07	0.10	30.00	37.30	-0.03	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.12	0.10	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.06	0.10	42.86	45.80	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.12	0.10	4.35	9.66	-0.11	-0.08
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.10	33.33	33.88	-0.02	-0.03
Long Island	NEC	0.12	0.10	70.83	71.05	0.05	0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.12	0.10	35.00	40.78	-0.04	-0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.18	0.10	34.78	34.48	-0.05	-0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.12	0.09	81.82	80.43	0.08	0.06
Ohio St.	B10	0.17	0.09	86.96	85.46	0.13	0.07
Western Carolina	SC	0.11	0.09	34.78	37.24	-0.03	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.12	0.09	28.57	30.17	-0.05	-0.04
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.06	0.09	85.71	82.18	0.04	0.06
Brigham Young	WCC	0.10	0.09	75.00	76.00	0.05	0.05
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.17	0.09	19.05	25.52	-0.10	-0.04
South Alabama	SB	0.11	0.09	52.38	52.87	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.11	0.09	81.82	77.20	0.07	0.05
Buffalo	MAC	0.11	0.09	68.42	66.45	0.04	0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.09	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.16	0.09	38.10	37.86	-0.04	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.11	0.09	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.00	0.07	75.00	74.61	0.00	0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.13	0.07	33.33	34.47	-0.04	-0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.00	0.07	40.91	44.03	-0.00	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.07	0.07	40.91	34.50	-0.01	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.00	0.07	31.82	32.75	-0.00	-0.02
Montana	BSky	0.00	0.07	70.00	73.28	0.00	0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.00	0.07	45.00	41.76	-0.00	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.07	0.07	38.89	43.93	-0.02	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.00	0.07	30.00	31.54	-0.00	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.07	0.07	69.57	64.53	0.03	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.00	0.07	26.32	28.83	-0.00	-0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.07	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.12	0.07	65.00	66.70	0.04	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.12	0.07	59.09	57.28	0.02	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.00	0.06	34.78	38.42	-0.00	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.06	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.11	0.06	35.00	39.29	-0.03	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.11	0.06	40.91	41.72	-0.02	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.06	27.27	35.02	-0.03	-0.02
Davidson	SC	0.06	0.06	76.19	76.76	0.03	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.11	0.06	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.06	0.06	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.11	0.06	40.00	41.30	-0.02	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.06	34.78	33.46	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.06	65.22	62.65	0.02	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	73.91	75.49	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.11	0.06	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.12	0.06	69.57	65.15	0.05	0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.11	0.06	87.50	85.41	0.08	0.04
Southern Utah	Sum	0.05	0.06	45.45	44.30	-0.00	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.06	90.91	87.74	0.04	0.05
College of Charleston	SC	0.06	0.06	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.11	0.06	95.83	92.57	0.10	0.05
North Carolina	ACC	0.11	0.06	86.96	83.16	0.08	0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.06	59.09	59.72	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.06	0.06	30.00	34.15	-0.02	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.06	80.77	80.75	0.03	0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.06	31.82	33.83	-0.02	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.06	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.10	0.06	17.39	19.81	-0.07	-0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.06	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.06	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.06	8.70	11.67	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.06	77.27	73.45	0.03	0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.06	68.00	69.07	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.06	34.78	33.43	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.10	0.06	37.50	38.52	-0.03	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.00	0.06	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.01
Seattle	ind	0.10	0.06	23.53	33.28	-0.05	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.10	0.06	45.45	45.55	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.10	0.06	82.61	80.42	0.07	0.03
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.03	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.07	0.03	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.03	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.00	0.03	36.36	39.72	-0.00	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.03	15.00	15.73	-0.04	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.07	0.03	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.03	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.06	0.03	83.33	84.76	0.04	0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.07	0.03	82.61	81.44	0.04	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.03	81.82	81.03	0.04	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.03	28.57	26.30	-0.03	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.07	0.03	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.03	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.07	0.03	69.57	68.29	0.03	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.00	0.03	35.00	35.26	-0.00	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.00	0.03	18.18	15.01	-0.00	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.06	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.01
Furman	SC	0.00	0.03	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.00	0.03	34.78	35.50	-0.00	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.03	17.39	22.00	-0.04	-0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.06	0.03	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.03	9.52	11.44	-0.05	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.03	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.03	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.00	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.00	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.03	16.67	23.02	-0.04	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.00	0.03	55.00	57.41	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.06	0.03	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.00	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.00	0.03	76.00	72.50	0.00	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.03	40.00	40.18	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.06	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.03	5.26	7.30	-0.05	-0.03
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.03	60.87	59.76	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.03	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.03	76.19	70.73	0.03	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.03	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.03	0.00	4.02	-0.05	-0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.03	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.03	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.70	12.13	-0.04	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.00	0.03	17.39	20.97	-0.00	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	74.91	0.02	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.00	0.03	69.57	71.51	0.00	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.03	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.05	0.03	35.00	37.47	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.03	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	85.71	78.05	0.04	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	10.00	14.93	-0.04	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	31.82	42.13	-0.02	-0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.00	0.03	55.56	58.01	0.00	0.00
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.03	48.00	51.88	-0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.03	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.03	20.83	20.60	-0.03	-0.02
Temple	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.00