Southern Utah

Conference:	Sum
Expected RPI:	233.2
Current RPI:	242
Expected SOS:	262
Current SOS:	304
Current Record:	10-12
Expected Record:	12-15
Current Conf Record:	7-7
Expected Conf Record:	8-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.93%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-4
Current OOC Record:	3-5
Expected OOC Record:	3-6
Expected OOC RPI:	313
Expected OOC SOS:	343

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-12	180.7	0.61%
14-13	198.7	6.19%
13-14	216.0	22.60%
12-15	232.7	37.30%
11-16	249.3	25.95%
10-17	264.9	7.34%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Utah.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	UC Davis (342.3)	BW	N	75-76	W	100%	0.0
11-12	San Diego St. (26.1)	MWC	A	70-37	L	0%	0.0
11-13	Bryant (334.5)	NEC	N	95-78	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Utah St. (132.9)	WAC	A	65-62	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Troy (274.6)	SB	H	76-80	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Oral Roberts (45.1)	Sum	A	61-55	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Weber St. (85.4)	BSky	A	84-66	L	0%	0.0
12-20	Troy (274.6)	SB	A	80-72	L	0%	0.0
12-22	UC Davis (342.3)	BW	H	62-51	W	100%	0.0
12-28	South Dakota (281.9)	Sum	A	75-81	W	100%	0.0
12-30	Missouri Kansas City (242.4)	Sum	A	77-91	W	100%	0.0
1-3	IUPU Fort Wayne (270.8)	Sum	A	79-58	L	0%	0.0
1-5	South Dakota St. (58.0)	Sum	H	68-75	L	0%	0.0
1-7	North Dakota St. (127.4)	Sum	H	69-72	L	0%	0.0
1-12	IUPUI (246.0)	Sum	A	64-72	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Western Illinois (181.7)	Sum	A	55-65	W	100%	0.0
1-19	Oakland (138.0)	Sum	H	63-72	L	0%	0.0
1-21	IUPU Fort Wayne (270.8)	Sum	H	58-56	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Missouri Kansas City (242.4)	Sum	H	57-47	W	100%	0.0
1-28	South Dakota (281.9)	Sum	H	62-60	W	100%	0.0
2-2	North Dakota St. (127.4)	Sum	A	85-64	L	0%	0.0
2-4	South Dakota St. (58.0)	Sum	A	66-56	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Western Illinois (181.7)	Sum	H	0-0		47%	-0.8
2-11	IUPUI (246.0)	Sum	H	0-0		58%	2.2
2-15	Oakland (138.0)	Sum	A	0-0		22%	-8.4
2-18	UC Riverside (255.7)	BW	A	0-0		48%	-0.4
2-25	Oral Roberts (45.1)	Sum	H	0-0		20%	-9.4

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Utah's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Southern Utah's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Southern Utah.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Southern Utah	Sum	26.90	26.64	49.02	46.26	-0.53	-1.99
Oral Roberts	Sum	3.43	4.79	80.00	80.12	2.06	2.88
Oakland	Sum	3.32	4.78	45.83	47.52	-0.28	-0.24
IUPUI	Sum	3.27	4.78	36.36	36.61	-0.89	-1.28
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	5.39	4.78	38.10	37.80	-1.28	-1.17
South Dakota St.	Sum	5.38	4.78	71.43	73.66	2.30	2.26
North Dakota St.	Sum	5.37	4.77	57.89	60.61	0.85	1.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	5.49	4.76	31.58	30.70	-2.02	-1.84
South Dakota	Sum	5.36	4.76	29.41	31.33	-2.21	-1.78
Western Illinois	Sum	3.27	4.76	55.56	50.22	0.36	0.02
UC Davis	BW	4.65	3.83	0.00	5.71	-4.65	-3.40
Troy	SB	4.55	3.70	21.05	24.35	-2.63	-1.90
UC Riverside	BW	0.27	2.01	42.86	39.23	-0.04	-0.43
San Diego St.	MWC	2.43	1.98	85.00	77.30	1.70	1.08
Bryant	NEC	2.44	1.95	8.70	11.21	-2.01	-1.51
Utah St.	WAC	2.33	1.89	47.83	51.33	-0.10	0.05
Weber St.	BSky	2.32	1.88	78.95	75.78	1.34	0.97
North Dakota	GWC	0.52	0.41	33.33	41.30	-0.17	-0.07
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.16	0.26	55.56	58.02	0.02	0.04
UC Irvine	BW	0.27	0.23	35.00	35.26	-0.08	-0.07
Long Beach St.	BW	0.16	0.23	71.43	73.45	0.07	0.11
Pacific	BW	0.16	0.22	35.00	37.55	-0.05	-0.06
Canisius	MAAC	0.34	0.21	17.39	19.76	-0.22	-0.13
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.28	0.21	40.91	44.29	-0.05	-0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.16	0.21	34.78	34.46	-0.05	-0.06
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.17	0.20	13.64	16.23	-0.12	-0.14
Florida International	SB	0.15	0.20	33.33	37.11	-0.05	-0.05
Valparaiso	Horz	0.20	0.20	65.22	63.55	0.06	0.05
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.09	0.19	43.48	44.26	-0.01	-0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.21	0.19	27.27	26.96	-0.10	-0.09
Western Michigan	MAC	0.14	0.19	40.91	42.97	-0.03	-0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.11	0.19	50.00	56.75	0.00	0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.11	0.19	65.00	66.71	0.03	0.06
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.11	0.19	21.05	22.46	-0.06	-0.11
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.15	0.16	57.14	60.72	0.02	0.04
Utah Valley	GWC	0.19	0.16	54.55	57.71	0.02	0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.22	0.14	50.00	52.04	0.00	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.11	0.14	36.36	39.73	-0.03	-0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.22	0.14	83.33	84.76	0.14	0.10
South Alabama	SB	0.22	0.14	52.38	52.88	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.17	0.14	76.19	70.71	0.09	0.06
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.22	0.14	54.17	54.76	0.02	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.22	0.14	50.00	44.98	0.00	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.11	0.14	69.57	66.33	0.04	0.04
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.22	0.14	30.00	33.22	-0.09	-0.05
Minnesota	B10	0.21	0.13	70.83	62.75	0.09	0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.15	0.13	30.43	25.84	-0.06	-0.06
Xavier	A10	0.15	0.13	65.22	63.69	0.05	0.04
Fresno St.	WAC	0.20	0.13	39.13	44.46	-0.04	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.15	0.13	81.82	81.02	0.10	0.08
Ball St.	MAC	0.10	0.13	55.00	57.42	0.01	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.15	0.13	66.67	68.55	0.05	0.05
Hawaii	WAC	0.16	0.13	57.14	53.02	0.02	0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.16	0.13	50.00	51.46	0.00	0.00
Seattle	ind	0.09	0.13	22.22	32.99	-0.05	-0.04
Chicago St.	GWC	0.16	0.10	9.09	12.82	-0.13	-0.08
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.10	45.00	41.71	-0.01	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.16	0.10	14.29	17.12	-0.11	-0.07
Denver	SB	0.16	0.10	70.83	72.24	0.06	0.05
Idaho St.	BSky	0.16	0.10	31.82	32.98	-0.06	-0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.16	0.10	78.26	72.28	0.09	0.05
Nevada	WAC	0.09	0.09	80.95	76.42	0.06	0.05
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.07	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.07	33.33	34.54	-0.02	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.00	0.07	47.83	47.08	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.07	28.57	29.05	-0.03	-0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.12	0.07	45.45	47.09	-0.01	-0.00
Texas St.	Slnd	0.00	0.07	22.22	27.56	-0.00	-0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.00	0.07	37.50	38.36	-0.00	-0.02
Belmont	ASun	0.11	0.07	70.83	73.74	0.05	0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.00	0.07	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.11	0.07	54.17	49.41	0.01	-0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.11	0.07	8.70	8.99	-0.09	-0.06
Miami OH	MAC	0.11	0.07	30.00	34.18	-0.04	-0.02
Montana	BSky	0.06	0.07	71.43	73.99	0.02	0.03
North Texas	SB	0.11	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.11	0.07	42.86	45.93	-0.02	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.11	0.07	62.50	60.78	0.03	0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.11	0.07	4.35	9.74	-0.10	-0.06
UAB	CUSA	0.11	0.07	40.91	39.81	-0.02	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.06	0.07	30.00	31.40	-0.02	-0.03
California	P12	0.11	0.07	75.00	74.62	0.06	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.11	0.07	30.43	31.40	-0.04	-0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.11	0.07	56.52	53.76	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.11	0.07	35.00	39.40	-0.03	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.10	0.07	75.00	76.02	0.05	0.03
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.07	76.19	75.98	0.02	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.07	47.37	42.13	-0.00	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.07	66.67	60.84	0.02	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.07	82.61	81.43	0.04	0.04
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.07	25.00	25.08	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.07	57.14	49.57	0.01	-0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.07	42.86	41.08	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.06	30.43	26.42	-0.02	-0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.10	0.06	24.00	24.86	-0.05	-0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.00	0.06	68.42	66.51	0.00	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.06	80.95	77.45	0.03	0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.06	45.45	41.17	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	ind	0.10	0.06	28.57	25.79	-0.04	-0.03
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.06	79.17	74.20	0.03	0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.10	0.06	72.00	72.22	0.04	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.06	77.27	73.50	0.05	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.10	0.06	36.00	40.36	-0.03	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.00	0.06	25.00	23.73	-0.00	-0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.10	0.06	26.32	29.85	-0.05	-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.10	0.06	47.62	47.19	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.11	0.06	69.57	68.33	0.04	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.06	31.82	42.18	-0.02	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.11	0.06	54.55	56.78	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.10	0.06	69.57	66.59	0.04	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.06	75.00	74.01	0.05	0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.06	56.52	57.81	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.10	0.06	56.52	57.20	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.00	0.06	41.67	40.47	-0.00	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.06	69.57	70.16	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.06	69.57	65.18	0.02	0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.09	0.06	45.45	45.69	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.06	14.29	14.31	-0.03	-0.04
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.06	47.62	44.58	-0.00	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.00	0.06	62.50	62.07	0.00	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.06	42.86	43.52	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.06	26.09	28.61	-0.02	-0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.06	69.57	69.00	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.06	81.82	77.18	0.03	0.03
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.09	0.06	56.52	57.14	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.06	68.00	70.06	0.02	0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.00	0.06	44.00	45.88	-0.00	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.06	21.74	22.75	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.06	45.45	44.56	-0.00	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.06	82.61	84.58	0.03	0.04
Akron	MAC	0.00	0.06	68.18	67.98	0.00	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.04	0.06	20.83	25.85	-0.03	-0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.04	0.06	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.04	0.06	81.82	81.50	0.03	0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.04	0.06	54.17	57.11	0.00	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.04	0.06	56.52	53.94	0.01	0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.04	0.06	38.10	37.80	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.04	0.06	66.67	65.98	0.01	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.04	34.78	38.43	-0.02	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.04	90.91	87.78	0.05	0.03
Utah	P12	0.06	0.04	18.18	15.00	-0.04	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.03	90.91	83.90	0.04	0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.03	84.00	82.62	0.04	0.02
Elon	SC	0.05	0.03	52.38	49.77	0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.03	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.00	0.03	43.48	43.27	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.00	0.03	45.83	45.52	-0.00	-0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.00	0.03	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.00	0.03	52.38	53.29	0.00	0.00
Army	Pat	0.05	0.03	40.91	41.68	-0.01	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.03	27.27	23.78	-0.02	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.70	12.14	-0.04	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	74.94	0.02	0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.03	70.83	71.06	0.02	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.03	28.00	28.87	-0.02	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.67	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.05	0.03	52.00	48.78	0.00	-0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.97	0.01	0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.03	20.83	23.73	-0.03	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.03	17.39	20.75	-0.03	-0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	82.61	80.50	0.03	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.03	72.22	63.23	0.02	0.01