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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.


Southern Utah

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:233.2
Current RPI:242
Expected SOS:262
Current SOS:304
Current Record:10-12
Expected Record:12-15
Current Conf Record:7-7
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.93%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:313
Expected OOC SOS:343



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-12180.70.61%
14-13198.76.19%
13-14216.022.60%
12-15232.737.30%
11-16249.325.95%
10-17264.97.34%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Utah.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11UC Davis (342.3)BWN75-76W100%0.0
11-12San Diego St. (26.1)MWCA70-37L0%0.0
11-13Bryant (334.5)NECN95-78W100%0.0
11-19Utah St. (132.9)WACA65-62L0%0.0
11-26Troy (274.6)SBH76-80L0%0.0
12-3Oral Roberts (45.1)SumA61-55L0%0.0
12-10Weber St. (85.4)BSkyA84-66L0%0.0
12-20Troy (274.6)SBA80-72L0%0.0
12-22UC Davis (342.3)BWH62-51W100%0.0
12-28South Dakota (281.9)SumA75-81W100%0.0
12-30Missouri Kansas City (242.4)SumA77-91W100%0.0
1-3IUPU Fort Wayne (270.8)SumA79-58L0%0.0
1-5South Dakota St. (58.0)SumH68-75L0%0.0
1-7North Dakota St. (127.4)SumH69-72L0%0.0
1-12IUPUI (246.0)SumA64-72W100%0.0
1-14Western Illinois (181.7)SumA55-65W100%0.0
1-19Oakland (138.0)SumH63-72L0%0.0
1-21IUPU Fort Wayne (270.8)SumH58-56W100%0.0
1-26Missouri Kansas City (242.4)SumH57-47W100%0.0
1-28South Dakota (281.9)SumH62-60W100%0.0
2-2North Dakota St. (127.4)SumA85-64L0%0.0
2-4South Dakota St. (58.0)SumA66-56L0%0.0
2-9Western Illinois (181.7)SumH0-047%-0.8
2-11IUPUI (246.0)SumH0-058%2.2
2-15Oakland (138.0)SumA0-022%-8.4
2-18UC Riverside (255.7)BWA0-048%-0.4
2-25Oral Roberts (45.1)SumH0-020%-9.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Utah's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern Utah's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern Utah.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southern UtahSum26.9026.6449.0246.26-0.53-1.99
Oral RobertsSum3.434.7980.0080.122.062.88
OaklandSum3.324.7845.8347.52-0.28-0.24
IUPUISum3.274.7836.3636.61-0.89-1.28
Missouri Kansas CitySum5.394.7838.1037.80-1.28-1.17
South Dakota St.Sum5.384.7871.4373.662.302.26
North Dakota St.Sum5.374.7757.8960.610.851.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum5.494.7631.5830.70-2.02-1.84
South DakotaSum5.364.7629.4131.33-2.21-1.78
Western IllinoisSum3.274.7655.5650.220.360.02
UC DavisBW4.653.830.005.71-4.65-3.40
TroySB4.553.7021.0524.35-2.63-1.90
UC RiversideBW0.272.0142.8639.23-0.04-0.43
San Diego St.MWC2.431.9885.0077.301.701.08
BryantNEC2.441.958.7011.21-2.01-1.51
Utah St.WAC2.331.8947.8351.33-0.100.05
Weber St.BSky2.321.8878.9575.781.340.97
North DakotaGWC0.520.4133.3341.30-0.17-0.07
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.160.2655.5658.020.020.04
UC IrvineBW0.270.2335.0035.26-0.08-0.07
Long Beach St.BW0.160.2371.4373.450.070.11
PacificBW0.160.2235.0037.55-0.05-0.06
CanisiusMAAC0.340.2117.3919.76-0.22-0.13
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.280.2140.9144.29-0.05-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.160.2134.7834.46-0.05-0.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.170.2013.6416.23-0.12-0.14
Florida InternationalSB0.150.2033.3337.11-0.05-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.200.2065.2263.550.060.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.1943.4844.26-0.01-0.02
San Jose St.WAC0.210.1927.2726.96-0.10-0.09
Western MichiganMAC0.140.1940.9142.97-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.110.1950.0056.750.000.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.110.1965.0066.710.030.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.1921.0522.46-0.06-0.11
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.150.1657.1460.720.020.04
Utah ValleyGWC0.190.1654.5557.710.020.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.220.1450.0052.040.000.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.110.1436.3639.73-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeSB0.220.1483.3384.760.140.10
South AlabamaSB0.220.1452.3852.880.010.01
WyomingMWC0.170.1476.1970.710.090.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.220.1454.1754.760.020.01
NebraskaB100.220.1450.0044.980.00-0.01
MichiganB100.110.1469.5766.330.040.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.220.1430.0033.22-0.09-0.05
MinnesotaB100.210.1370.8362.750.090.03
Texas TechB120.150.1330.4325.84-0.06-0.06
XavierA100.150.1365.2263.690.050.04
Fresno St.WAC0.200.1339.1344.46-0.04-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.150.1381.8281.020.100.08
Ball St.MAC0.100.1355.0057.420.010.02
ArizonaP120.150.1366.6768.550.050.05
HawaiiWAC0.160.1357.1453.020.020.01
IdahoWAC0.160.1350.0051.460.000.00
Seattleind0.090.1322.2232.99-0.05-0.04
Chicago St.GWC0.160.109.0912.82-0.13-0.08
Montana St.BSky0.060.1045.0041.71-0.01-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.160.1014.2917.12-0.11-0.07
DenverSB0.160.1070.8372.240.060.05
Idaho St.BSky0.160.1031.8232.98-0.06-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.160.1078.2672.280.090.05
NevadaWAC0.090.0980.9576.420.060.05
DaytonA100.060.0760.8760.960.010.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0733.3334.54-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0747.8347.08-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0728.5729.05-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.120.0745.4547.09-0.01-0.00
Texas St.Slnd0.000.0722.2227.56-0.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0737.5038.36-0.00-0.02
BelmontASun0.110.0770.8373.740.050.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0750.0051.750.000.00
IowaB100.110.0754.1749.410.01-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.078.708.99-0.09-0.06
Miami OHMAC0.110.0730.0034.18-0.04-0.02
MontanaBSky0.060.0771.4373.990.020.03
North TexasSB0.110.0750.0050.000.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.110.0742.8645.93-0.02-0.01
PurdueB100.110.0762.5060.780.030.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.074.359.74-0.10-0.06
UABCUSA0.110.0740.9139.81-0.02-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0730.0031.40-0.02-0.03
CaliforniaP120.110.0775.0074.620.060.03
Arizona St.P120.110.0730.4331.40-0.04-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.110.0756.5253.760.010.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.110.0735.0039.40-0.03-0.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.100.0775.0076.020.050.03
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.050.0776.1975.980.020.03
Air ForceMWC0.050.0747.3742.13-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0766.6760.840.020.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0782.6181.430.040.04
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0725.0025.08-0.03-0.03
Texas ChristianMWC0.050.0757.1449.570.01-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0742.8641.08-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0630.4326.42-0.02-0.03
BradleyMVC0.100.0624.0024.86-0.05-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0668.4266.510.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0640.9138.38-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0680.9577.450.030.04
GeorgiaSEC0.100.0645.4541.17-0.01-0.01
Longwoodind0.100.0628.5725.79-0.04-0.03
LouisvilleBE0.050.0679.1774.200.030.03
MercerASun0.100.0672.0072.220.040.03
Michigan St.B100.100.0677.2773.500.050.03
NiagaraMAAC0.100.0636.0040.36-0.03-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0625.0023.73-0.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.0626.3229.85-0.05-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.0647.6247.19-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.110.0669.5768.330.040.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0631.8242.18-0.02-0.01
UCLAP120.110.0654.5556.780.010.01
WashingtonP120.100.0669.5766.590.040.02
WisconsinB100.100.0675.0074.010.050.03
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0656.5257.810.010.01
WoffordSC0.100.0656.5257.200.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0641.6740.47-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0669.5770.160.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0669.5765.180.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0645.4545.69-0.01-0.01
GramblingSWAC0.050.0614.2914.31-0.03-0.04
HoustonCUSA0.050.0647.6244.58-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0662.5062.070.000.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0642.8643.52-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0626.0928.61-0.02-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0669.5769.000.020.02
OhioMAC0.050.0681.8277.180.030.03
QuinnipiacNEC0.090.0656.5257.140.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0668.0070.060.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0644.0045.88-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0621.7422.75-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0645.4544.56-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0682.6184.580.030.04
AkronMAC0.000.0668.1867.980.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0620.8325.85-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0632.0035.39-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.040.0681.8281.500.030.04
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0654.1757.110.000.01
OklahomaB120.040.0656.5253.940.010.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.040.0638.1037.80-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaBE0.040.0666.6765.980.010.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0434.7838.43-0.02-0.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.060.0490.9187.780.050.03
UtahP120.060.0418.1815.00-0.04-0.02
BaylorB120.050.0390.9183.900.040.02
CreightonMVC0.050.0384.0082.620.040.02
ElonSC0.050.0352.3849.770.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0333.3333.82-0.02-0.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.000.0343.4843.27-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.000.0345.8345.52-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.000.0350.0048.170.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0352.3853.290.000.00
ArmyPat0.050.0340.9141.68-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0327.2723.78-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.038.7012.14-0.04-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0371.4369.050.020.01
LehighPat0.050.0373.9174.940.020.02
Long IslandNEC0.050.0370.8371.060.020.01
MonmouthNEC0.050.0328.0028.87-0.02-0.01
Notre DameBE0.050.0365.2262.670.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0352.0048.780.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0356.5255.970.010.00
St. Peter'sMAAC0.050.0320.8323.73-0.03-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0317.3920.75-0.03-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0382.6180.500.030.02
YaleIvy0.050.0372.2263.230.020.01