live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Southern Utah

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:334.5
Current RPI:336
Expected SOS:265
Current SOS:262
Current Record:3-17
Expected Record:4-23
Current Conf Record:2-9
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-12
Current OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC RPI:314
Expected OOC SOS:219



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-17251.00.01%
9-18266.00.01%
8-19288.40.07%
7-20305.31.07%
6-21317.76.71%
5-22328.623.67%
4-23336.641.62%
3-24342.026.83%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Utah.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Utah (26.8)P12A82-71L0%0.0
11-18UNLV (121.9)MWCA84-64L0%0.0
11-21UTSA (341.5)CUSAH79-82L0%0.0
11-24Cal St. Fullerton (291.4)BWH66-80L0%0.0
11-28Eastern Kentucky (198.0)OVCA98-85L0%0.0
12-5Utah Valley (257.6)WACA54-68W100%0.0
12-16Saint Mary's (39.1)WCCA92-36L0%0.0
12-19IUPUI (178.2)SumA82-68L0%0.0
12-22Butler (48.7)BEA88-52L0%0.0
12-31Montana St. (255.2)BSkyH93-82W100%0.0
1-2Montana (146.2)BSkyH66-83L0%0.0
1-9Northern Arizona (322.2)BSkyH63-73L0%0.0
1-14Eastern Washington (207.4)BSkyA106-80L0%0.0
1-16Idaho (219.4)BSkyA83-85W100%0.0
1-21Northern Colorado (308.9)BSkyH80-90L0%0.0
1-23North Dakota (210.8)BSkyH72-88L0%0.0
1-28Idaho St. (271.4)BSkyA87-68L0%0.0
1-30Weber St. (139.6)BSkyA77-50L0%0.0
2-4Idaho (219.4)BSkyH44-68L0%0.0
2-6Eastern Washington (207.4)BSkyH67-81L0%0.0
2-11Montana (146.2)BSkyA0-04%-18.6
2-13Montana St. (255.2)BSkyA0-013%-12.4
2-18Weber St. (139.6)BSkyH0-08%-15.4
2-20Idaho St. (271.4)BSkyH0-032%-5.0
2-27Northern Arizona (322.2)BSkyA0-035%-4.3
3-3Sacramento St. (250.4)BSkyA0-010%-13.7
3-5Portland St. (281.6)BSkyA0-012%-13.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Utah's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern Utah's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern Utah.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southern UtahBSky26.3926.3617.0017.92-17.42-16.91
Northern ArizonaBSky3.344.645.267.58-2.99-3.93
Idaho St.BSky3.054.5842.1143.20-0.48-0.62
Montana St.BSky3.054.5642.8643.76-0.44-0.57
Weber St.BSky3.004.5563.1667.160.791.56
IdahoBSky5.494.5255.0055.330.550.48
Eastern WashingtonBSky5.494.5147.3750.54-0.290.05
MontanaBSky2.984.5155.5659.370.330.84
Portland St.BSky0.662.8931.5835.77-0.24-0.82
Northern ColoradoBSky3.232.8525.0024.29-1.62-1.47
Sacramento St.BSky0.602.8542.1143.98-0.10-0.34
North DakotaBSky3.232.8544.4447.90-0.36-0.12
Utah ValleyWAC2.802.1135.0036.34-0.84-0.58
UtahP122.561.9269.5767.421.000.67
Saint Mary'sWCC2.561.8985.0084.821.791.31
UTSACUSA2.561.899.5210.54-2.07-1.49
Cal St. FullertonBW2.501.8930.0027.93-1.00-0.83
ButlerBE2.551.8869.5767.921.000.67
IUPUISum2.551.8837.5037.69-0.64-0.46
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.501.8550.0048.510.00-0.06
UNLVMWC2.501.8550.0053.480.000.13
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.410.3466.6767.710.140.12
DenverSum0.460.3354.1751.780.040.01
PortlandWCC0.240.3040.0038.51-0.05-0.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.300.3063.6462.150.080.07
San Jose St.MWC0.350.2923.8122.82-0.18-0.16
Washington St.P120.290.2936.3631.98-0.08-0.11
SeattleWAC0.360.2747.6245.00-0.02-0.03
UC DavisBW0.350.2740.0036.70-0.07-0.07
GonzagaWCC0.190.2178.2676.880.110.11
San FranciscoWCC0.240.2154.5550.110.020.00
Boise St.MWC0.180.2060.8760.530.040.04
PacificWCC0.300.2025.0028.89-0.15-0.09
BYUWCC0.290.2066.6769.490.100.08
Utah St.MWC0.240.2047.6249.26-0.01-0.00
NevadaMWC0.170.2057.1455.290.020.02
South DakotaSum0.220.1941.6741.24-0.04-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.230.1973.9174.700.110.10
WyomingMWC0.170.1943.4842.47-0.02-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.180.1714.2915.45-0.13-0.12
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.180.1731.8230.15-0.07-0.07
WashingtonP120.230.1762.5060.110.060.03
Cal PolyBW0.230.1730.0034.55-0.09-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.170.1658.3358.480.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.130.1456.5257.280.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.180.1439.1338.56-0.04-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.230.1345.8341.65-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.180.1390.4886.910.140.10
HawaiiBW0.120.1384.2181.660.080.08
ArizonaP120.120.1379.1778.330.070.07
StanfordP120.160.1350.0046.530.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.160.1264.0062.040.040.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.1182.6181.130.040.07
KansasB120.130.1082.6179.190.080.06
San DiegoWCC0.180.1031.8229.13-0.06-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.120.1072.7371.660.050.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.180.1043.4843.76-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.1054.1751.670.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.110.1045.4549.69-0.01-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1054.5552.540.010.00
CaliforniaP120.160.1065.2262.830.050.02
Oregon St.P120.160.1061.9056.450.040.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1017.3920.66-0.07-0.06
North TexasCUSA0.170.1033.3333.07-0.06-0.03
ColoradoP120.110.0969.5765.310.040.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.0924.0024.17-0.06-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.0922.7327.18-0.06-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.110.0969.5770.070.040.04
USCP120.110.0978.2673.050.060.04
OregonP120.160.0982.6179.250.100.05
IPFWSum0.100.0970.8368.590.040.03
MarquetteBE0.100.0964.0057.920.030.01
Chicago St.WAC0.060.074.357.72-0.05-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.0765.2268.590.040.03
UMKCWAC0.060.0728.5732.73-0.03-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.060.0759.0961.310.010.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0745.4551.39-0.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0743.4850.66-0.010.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0730.4331.21-0.02-0.03
TulsaAmer0.060.0766.6764.730.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0742.8650.41-0.010.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.0776.1973.410.060.03
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0747.6249.35-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.120.0761.9058.060.030.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0720.8323.19-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.060.0730.0029.28-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.120.0772.7367.630.050.02
Western CarolinaSC0.120.0728.5731.30-0.05-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.110.0742.8642.01-0.02-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.110.0640.0042.85-0.02-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0643.4837.81-0.01-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0656.5257.000.010.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0640.9145.29-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.110.0663.6461.640.030.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0671.4368.750.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.110.0658.3360.690.020.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.0660.0057.640.020.01
SamfordSC0.110.0641.6742.61-0.02-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0631.5832.01-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.060.0666.6762.560.020.02
TroySB0.110.0623.8126.72-0.06-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.060.0652.1751.940.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.110.0650.0051.190.000.00
UCLAP120.050.0656.5253.270.010.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.0645.4546.21-0.01-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.110.0673.9176.740.050.03
Ball St.MAC0.100.0660.8757.160.020.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0668.0066.660.020.02
DePaulBE0.100.0633.3334.01-0.03-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0656.0052.840.010.00
Indiana St.MVC0.100.0650.0049.600.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.100.0682.6177.520.070.03
Missouri St.MVC0.100.0637.5037.41-0.03-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0650.0052.380.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0639.1341.11-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.100.0672.0069.150.050.02
PurdueB100.100.0680.0077.960.060.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.0638.1037.70-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0670.8368.100.020.02
St. John'sBE0.100.0625.0023.45-0.05-0.03
TempleAmer0.100.0663.6459.710.030.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0668.1865.160.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0665.2264.370.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0687.5086.870.040.05
Western IllinoisSum0.100.0627.7829.16-0.04-0.03
XavierBE0.050.0687.5081.860.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0450.0045.820.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.070.0412.0011.96-0.05-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0447.6252.03-0.000.00
Kansas St.B120.070.0458.3356.290.010.00
LouisvilleACC0.060.0479.1776.070.030.02
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0456.0055.420.010.00
WisconsinB100.070.0462.5056.960.020.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0430.4332.35-0.03-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0352.9452.060.000.00
UMBCAE0.060.0324.0026.33-0.03-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0325.0030.04-0.03-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0334.7840.89-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0358.3358.370.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0379.1774.060.030.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0345.8343.68-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0371.4369.430.020.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0356.5262.820.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.14-0.04-0.02
RiceCUSA0.060.0328.5729.66-0.02-0.01
TexasB120.060.0366.6762.210.020.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0376.1972.310.030.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0345.4554.16-0.010.00
Texas St.SB0.060.0336.8437.57-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.060.0382.6179.390.040.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0372.0071.540.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.65-0.04-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.039.0912.25-0.04-0.02
DukeACC0.050.0375.0071.800.030.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0359.0959.370.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0339.1341.03-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0357.8956.090.010.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0321.7423.40-0.03-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0375.0072.630.030.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0322.7324.97-0.03-0.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0358.3359.360.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0334.7833.05-0.02-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0350.0049.050.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0333.3334.19-0.02-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0352.1754.140.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0313.6415.80-0.04-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0350.0048.130.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0347.8350.01-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0360.8755.300.010.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0331.8230.05-0.02-0.01
VMISC0.050.0315.0016.73-0.04-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0379.1778.060.030.02