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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Southern Utah

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:328.1
Current RPI:339
Expected SOS:323
Current SOS:252
Current Record:0-6
Expected Record:7-22
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-14
Current OOC Record:0-6
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:340
Expected OOC SOS:288



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13210.00.01%
15-14228.00.02%
14-15245.50.13%
13-16257.70.64%
12-17277.11.62%
11-18291.84.00%
10-19305.97.72%
9-20316.812.06%
8-21325.816.55%
7-22333.118.77%
6-23338.716.32%
5-24342.812.03%
4-25345.56.49%
3-26347.82.71%
2-27349.00.79%
1-28349.30.13%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Utah.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Valparaiso (75.8)HorzA79-65L0%0.0
11-14Saint Louis (286.9)A10A88-76L0%0.0
11-21Coastal Carolina (222.6)SBN68-83L0%0.0
11-23Ball St. (242.5)MACN83-94L0%0.0
11-30UNLV (188.7)MWCH81-89L0%0.0
12-3Oakland (95.3)HorzA78-68L0%0.0
12-8Loyola Marymount (166.7)WCCA0-011%-15.0
12-10Cal St. Fullerton (322.2)BWA0-031%-6.0
12-17IUPUI (158.9)SumH0-022%-9.2
12-19Seattle (263.8)WACA0-025%-8.1
12-21San Jose St. (190.4)MWCA0-014%-13.1
12-31Northern Arizona (338.3)BSkyA0-046%-1.2
1-5Northern Colorado (288.0)BSkyA0-028%-6.8
1-7North Dakota (236.5)BSkyA0-017%-11.6
1-12Sacramento St. (336.3)BSkyH0-065%4.7
1-14Portland St. (281.5)BSkyH0-046%-1.2
1-19Idaho (228.1)BSkyA0-018%-10.9
1-21Eastern Washington (199.9)BSkyA0-020%-10.2
1-26North Dakota (236.5)BSkyH0-033%-5.3
1-28Northern Colorado (288.0)BSkyH0-048%-0.6
2-2Weber St. (208.9)BSkyA0-013%-13.2
2-4Idaho St. (284.4)BSkyA0-030%-6.5
2-9Montana (243.3)BSkyH0-032%-5.5
2-11Montana St. (176.6)BSkyH0-026%-7.8
2-18Northern Arizona (338.3)BSkyA0-046%-1.2
2-23Portland St. (281.5)BSkyA0-027%-7.5
2-25Sacramento St. (336.3)BSkyA0-045%-1.6
3-2Eastern Washington (199.9)BSkyH0-037%-3.9
3-3Idaho (228.1)BSkyH0-035%-4.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Utah's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern Utah's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern Utah.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southern UtahBSky28.4226.340.0027.45-28.42-11.88
Northern ArizonaBSky0.524.3712.5021.60-0.39-2.48
Portland St.BSky0.004.3240.0041.73-0.00-0.71
Northern ColoradoBSky0.004.2716.6737.40-0.00-1.08
Sacramento St.BSky0.004.260.0020.17-0.00-2.54
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.004.2671.4353.940.000.34
North DakotaBSky0.004.2633.3352.50-0.000.21
IdahoBSky0.004.2250.0051.110.000.09
MontanaBSky0.002.6425.0047.45-0.00-0.13
Idaho St.BSky0.002.6012.5027.67-0.00-1.16
Montana St.BSky0.002.6050.0061.970.000.62
Weber St.BSky0.002.6016.6748.23-0.00-0.09
UNLVMWC8.331.8857.1441.931.19-0.30
San Jose St.MWC0.001.8750.0039.770.00-0.38
SeattleWAC0.001.8416.6738.08-0.00-0.44
Cal St. FullertonBW0.521.8228.5732.41-0.22-0.64
ValparaisoHorz8.931.8183.3374.125.950.87
Ball St.MAC9.521.8133.3345.29-3.17-0.17
Loyola MarymountWCC0.001.7933.3344.79-0.00-0.19
OaklandHorz8.331.7883.3376.345.560.94
IUPUISum0.601.7537.5050.67-0.150.02
Saint LouisA108.931.7516.6721.24-5.95-1.01
Coastal CarolinaSB8.331.7214.2936.64-5.95-0.46
UC DavisBW0.600.3450.0045.970.00-0.03
DenverSum0.000.3142.8645.01-0.00-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.2642.8660.54-0.000.05
San FranciscoWCC0.000.2585.7153.560.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.2433.3332.35-0.00-0.09
Washington St.P120.000.2242.8628.98-0.00-0.09
Colorado St.MWC0.000.2171.4360.540.000.05
South DakotaSum0.000.2150.0046.020.00-0.02
BYUWCC1.710.2162.5066.900.430.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.2057.1458.940.000.04
PortlandWCC0.000.1950.0054.070.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1925.0039.59-0.00-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.000.1942.8633.23-0.00-0.06
Wright St.Horz0.000.1962.5051.790.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.520.180.0032.52-0.52-0.06
Little RockSB0.000.1866.6761.330.000.04
NevadaMWC0.600.1877.7871.970.330.08
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1857.1453.990.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.1866.6754.050.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1728.5732.62-0.00-0.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1742.8645.44-0.00-0.02
PacificWCC0.000.1642.8646.14-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.1675.0062.620.000.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1642.8655.09-0.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.600.1520.0022.75-0.36-0.08
Boise St.MWC0.000.1542.8656.04-0.000.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.1537.5031.23-0.00-0.06
Utah St.MWC0.000.1542.8650.06-0.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1322.2221.23-0.00-0.08
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1366.6757.300.000.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1228.5742.90-0.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.1257.1452.370.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1242.8645.56-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.1257.1448.500.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1260.0069.120.000.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.600.1228.5741.52-0.26-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.600.120.0022.31-0.60-0.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1212.5033.65-0.00-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.1262.5058.450.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1228.5731.44-0.00-0.04
DetroitHorz0.000.120.0021.22-0.00-0.07
Green BayHorz0.000.1242.8651.95-0.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1242.8638.17-0.00-0.03
AlabamaSEC2.310.1257.1451.790.330.00
North FloridaASun0.000.1012.5034.79-0.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.100.0033.85-0.00-0.03
StanfordP120.000.1066.6758.060.000.02
Arizona St.P120.520.0962.5040.460.13-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.09100.0089.330.000.07
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0966.6740.030.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0975.0066.170.000.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0962.5067.390.000.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0933.3352.21-0.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0950.0046.410.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0950.0050.840.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0950.0056.740.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0971.4356.250.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC1.710.090.0017.13-1.71-0.06
Western MichiganMAC0.600.0916.6736.03-0.40-0.02
OregonP120.600.0875.0072.250.300.04
IowaB100.000.0737.5037.74-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0733.3352.84-0.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0742.8658.58-0.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0775.0070.180.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0762.5052.330.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0640.0054.54-0.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.0675.0068.370.000.02
BucknellPat0.000.0666.6766.340.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0074.440.000.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0642.8641.51-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.450.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0038.27-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0657.1444.890.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0671.4348.350.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0637.5033.74-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.040.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0054.070.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0616.6729.81-0.00-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.000.0671.4370.210.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0091.920.000.05
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0016.68-0.00-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.000.0642.8630.92-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0616.6729.80-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0675.0066.370.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0625.0047.82-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0642.8643.60-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0650.0060.620.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0671.4363.930.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0616.6738.58-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.0657.1438.680.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.390.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.0687.5070.890.000.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0625.0043.41-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0650.0041.990.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.520.0671.4357.970.220.01
Indiana St.MVC0.600.0642.8650.11-0.090.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0685.7170.060.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0637.5047.91-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0620.0035.47-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.600.0662.5069.130.150.02
DaytonA100.000.0671.4373.490.000.03
DuquesneA100.000.0644.4442.03-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0662.5046.900.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0666.6755.540.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0657.1449.130.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0671.4370.390.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0023.69-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0025.23-0.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0077.380.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.0385.7176.240.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0357.1464.030.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0333.3339.61-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0316.6744.34-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0362.5050.710.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0360.0067.760.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0375.0066.410.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.460.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0314.2938.26-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.450.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.520.0371.4373.040.220.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.520.0366.6761.550.170.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0312.5037.99-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0357.1452.030.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0312.5030.68-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0350.0041.540.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0355.5658.610.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0350.0049.780.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0357.1471.520.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0350.0044.400.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0375.0071.470.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0322.2241.71-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5062.040.000.01
TroySB0.000.0342.8636.19-0.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.520.0357.1467.260.070.01
UtahP120.000.0375.0059.790.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.520.0375.0054.490.260.00
WisconsinB100.000.0377.7876.040.000.02
WoffordSC0.000.030.0034.81-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0371.4368.980.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0342.8627.96-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0357.1454.360.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0387.5082.800.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0021.80-0.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0360.0058.590.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0383.3371.480.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0371.4363.170.000.01
DukeACC0.000.0388.8978.400.000.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.600.0357.1450.080.090.00
FordhamA100.000.0350.0041.310.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0355.5641.690.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.0387.5075.860.000.01
Kansas St.B120.600.0387.5059.310.450.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0371.4358.600.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0048.500.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.75-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0051.040.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.210.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.600.0362.5056.520.150.00
TCUB120.520.03100.0061.680.520.01
USCP120.000.03100.0076.680.000.01
VCUA100.000.0375.0073.060.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.520.0337.5035.09-0.13-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0375.0086.710.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0071.070.000.01