live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Southern Utah

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:346.0
Current RPI:346
Expected SOS:246
Current SOS:246
Current Record:1-27
Expected Record:1-27
Current Conf Record:1-19
Expected Conf Record:1-19
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:0-16
Current OOC Record:0-8
Expected OOC Record:0-8
Expected OOC RPI:329
Expected OOC SOS:115



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
1-27346.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Utah.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Utah St. (116.0)MWCA90-57L0%0.0
11-18California (63.0)P12A75-47L0%0.0
11-23UC Riverside (319.0)BWH59-74L0%0.0
12-1Portland (178.0)WCCA86-57L0%0.0
12-3Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWA84-57L0%0.0
12-14UNLV (108.0)MWCH51-73L0%0.0
12-18San Diego St. (15.0)MWCA76-39L0%0.0
12-21San Diego (156.0)WCCA67-52L0%0.0
1-2North Dakota (197.0)BSkyA65-61L0%0.0
1-4Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyA91-55L0%0.0
1-11Sacramento St. (263.0)BSkyH49-77L0%0.0
1-13Northern Arizona (247.0)BSkyH36-70L0%0.0
1-16Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyA60-45L0%0.0
1-18Weber St. (149.0)BSkyA65-59L0%0.0
1-23Eastern Washington (228.0)BSkyA90-83L0%0.0
1-25Portland St. (252.0)BSkyA67-64L0%0.0
1-30Montana (183.0)BSkyH61-69L0%0.0
2-1Montana St. (275.0)BSkyH52-54L0%0.0
2-8Northern Arizona (247.0)BSkyA64-57L0%0.0
2-10Sacramento St. (263.0)BSkyA68-56L0%0.0
2-13Weber St. (149.0)BSkyH55-75L0%0.0
2-15Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyH65-75L0%0.0
2-20Portland St. (252.0)BSkyH79-86L0%0.0
2-22Eastern Washington (228.0)BSkyH74-85L0%0.0
2-27Montana St. (275.0)BSkyA77-72L0%0.0
3-1Montana (183.0)BSkyA82-54L0%0.0
3-6North Dakota (197.0)BSkyH77-71W100%0.0
3-8Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyH52-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Utah's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern Utah's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern Utah.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southern UtahBSky26.4726.472.342.34-25.23-25.23
North DakotaBSky4.884.8848.2848.28-0.17-0.17
Portland St.BSky4.864.8648.1548.15-0.18-0.18
Northern ColoradoBSky4.844.8451.8551.850.180.18
Weber St.BSky4.834.8357.6957.690.740.74
Montana St.BSky4.804.8037.0437.04-1.24-1.24
Sacramento St.BSky4.774.7738.4638.46-1.10-1.10
Northern ArizonaBSky4.764.7641.3841.38-0.82-0.82
MontanaBSky4.744.7450.0050.000.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky4.694.6940.7440.74-0.87-0.87
Idaho St.BSky4.684.6828.0028.00-2.06-2.06
UC RiversideBW2.062.0625.0025.00-1.03-1.03
San Diego St.MWC2.012.0186.6786.671.481.48
UNLVMWC1.991.9959.3859.380.370.37
Utah St.MWC1.991.9953.3353.330.130.13
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.971.9743.7543.75-0.25-0.25
PortlandWCC1.971.9746.6746.67-0.13-0.13
San DiegoWCC1.871.8744.8344.83-0.19-0.19
CaliforniaP121.791.7958.0658.060.290.29
UC IrvineBW0.360.3665.6265.620.110.11
IdahoWAC0.340.3445.4545.45-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.320.3246.6746.67-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.280.2863.3363.330.070.07
WashingtonP120.280.2853.1253.120.020.02
UC DavisBW0.270.2724.1424.14-0.14-0.14
Cal St. FullertonBW0.270.2735.4835.48-0.08-0.08
HawaiiBW0.260.2662.0762.070.060.06
WyomingMWC0.260.2653.3353.330.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.260.2667.8667.860.090.09
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.250.2538.7138.71-0.06-0.06
Fresno St.MWC0.250.2548.3948.39-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.230.2317.2417.24-0.15-0.15
Loyola MarymountWCC0.230.2338.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.230.2359.3859.380.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.230.2381.8281.820.150.15
BYUWCC0.210.2166.6766.670.070.07
PacificWCC0.200.2048.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.200.2036.6736.67-0.05-0.05
UCLAP120.180.1876.4776.470.100.10
Saint Mary'sWCC0.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
Air ForceMWC0.170.1735.7135.71-0.05-0.05
ArizonaP120.170.1788.2488.240.130.13
USCP120.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
NevadaMWC0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.150.1557.1457.140.020.02
Arizona St.P120.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
PepperdineWCC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.130.1367.7467.740.040.04
SeattleWAC0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.120.1281.8281.820.070.07
UtahP120.090.0963.3363.330.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0935.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0946.1546.15-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
MinnesotaB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0670.5970.590.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UICHorz0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0678.5778.570.030.03
Texas TechB120.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Oregon St.P120.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
StanfordP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Washington St.P120.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
KansasB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
TroySB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00