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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Southern Utah

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:336.3
Current RPI:319
Expected SOS:285
Current SOS:259
Current Record:0-3
Expected Record:5-22
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-12
Current OOC Record:0-3
Expected OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC RPI:348
Expected OOC SOS:259



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-14231.50.02%
12-15240.60.05%
11-16263.90.31%
10-17284.31.12%
9-18298.63.09%
8-19313.56.62%
7-20325.712.36%
6-21334.917.90%
5-22341.220.29%
4-23345.417.79%
3-24348.012.46%
2-25349.45.84%
1-26350.41.91%
0-27350.80.23%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Utah.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Kansas St. (89.4)B12A98-68L0%0.0
11-16Miami OH (237.8)MACA76-63L0%0.0
11-22Utah Valley (217.6)WACH75-85L0%0.0
11-26Eastern Kentucky (128.3)OVCH0-016%-12.0
11-30UTSA (256.4)CUSAA0-015%-12.2
12-14Boise St. (78.3)MWCA0-03%-23.0
12-19Loyola Chicago (238.8)MVCA0-014%-13.0
12-22Arkansas Pine Bluff (312.0)SWACN0-044%-1.8
12-27UNLV (108.8)MWCA0-05%-20.2
1-1Portland St. (218.0)BSkyA0-014%-13.1
1-3Sacramento St. (231.1)BSkyA0-016%-11.7
1-10Northern Arizona (185.2)BSkyA0-010%-15.5
1-15Idaho St. (319.4)BSkyH0-051%0.4
1-17Weber St. (218.1)BSkyH0-026%-7.8
1-22Montana St. (308.0)BSkyA0-030%-6.2
1-24Montana (208.9)BSkyA0-011%-14.6
1-31Northern Arizona (185.2)BSkyH0-024%-8.3
2-5North Dakota (233.3)BSkyH0-032%-5.6
2-7Northern Colorado (218.8)BSkyH0-028%-7.2
2-12Weber St. (218.1)BSkyA0-011%-14.9
2-14Idaho St. (319.4)BSkyA0-029%-6.7
2-19Eastern Washington (92.0)BSkyH0-012%-14.2
2-21Idaho (247.7)BSkyH0-034%-4.9
2-26Northern Colorado (218.8)BSkyA0-012%-14.3
2-28North Dakota (233.3)BSkyA0-014%-12.8
3-5Sacramento St. (231.1)BSkyH0-035%-4.5
3-7Portland St. (218.0)BSkyH0-031%-5.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Utah's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern Utah's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern Utah.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southern UtahBSky33.3326.380.0019.35-33.33-16.17
Northern ArizonaBSky0.004.7033.3352.60-0.000.24
Sacramento St.BSky0.004.6550.0044.020.00-0.56
North DakotaBSky0.004.590.0041.49-0.00-0.78
Idaho St.BSky0.004.580.0025.91-0.00-2.21
Northern ColoradoBSky0.004.580.0050.91-0.000.08
Portland St.BSky0.004.58100.0048.160.00-0.17
Weber St.BSky0.004.540.0045.41-0.00-0.42
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.782.8466.6767.500.930.99
Montana St.BSky0.002.840.0021.86-0.00-1.60
IdahoBSky0.002.8450.0046.400.00-0.20
MontanaBSky0.002.830.0046.42-0.00-0.20
Utah ValleyWAC16.672.2650.0047.420.00-0.12
Boise St.MWC0.001.9875.0061.780.000.47
UTSACUSA0.001.9550.0035.620.00-0.56
UNLVMWC0.001.9275.0051.750.000.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.001.890.0036.77-0.00-0.50
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.001.8525.0033.21-0.00-0.62
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.001.85100.0063.320.000.49
Kansas St.B1216.671.8550.0052.610.000.10
Miami OHMAC16.671.8550.0031.750.00-0.68
Utah St.MWC0.000.3075.0057.480.000.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.240.0031.63-0.00-0.09
WyomingMWC0.000.23100.0070.850.000.09
SeattleWAC0.000.2033.3349.04-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.20100.0030.790.00-0.08
PortlandWCC0.000.20100.0051.660.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.2033.3349.33-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.20100.0062.400.000.05
New MexicoMWC0.000.1975.0059.530.000.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1766.6746.620.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1750.0049.760.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.160.0033.08-0.00-0.05
Air ForceMWC0.000.1650.0045.890.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1450.0052.920.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.140.0028.19-0.00-0.06
San FranciscoWCC0.000.14100.0062.040.000.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.140.0031.61-0.00-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1425.0066.02-0.000.04
UC DavisBW0.000.14100.0042.650.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.140.0028.76-0.00-0.06
OklahomaB120.000.1450.0058.120.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.130.0025.08-0.00-0.07
Northern IowaMVC0.000.13100.0072.420.000.06
Washington St.P120.000.1333.3327.58-0.00-0.06
UMKCWAC2.780.1333.3355.40-0.930.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1350.0044.810.00-0.01
South DakotaSum2.780.130.0042.57-2.78-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.1366.6746.900.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.130.0063.44-0.000.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.13100.0080.630.000.08
San Jose St.MWC0.000.130.0017.53-0.00-0.08
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.130.0037.22-0.00-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.130.0038.72-0.00-0.03
BYUWCC0.000.11100.0070.030.000.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.110.0033.98-0.00-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1050.0044.170.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1075.0057.060.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1033.3340.99-0.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.100.0027.82-0.00-0.04
EvansvilleMVC2.780.10100.0063.552.780.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1025.0059.16-0.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.10100.0070.980.000.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1050.0045.600.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.10100.0045.990.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.10100.0054.550.000.01
UtahP120.000.1066.6769.700.000.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1033.3327.10-0.00-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.10100.0071.830.000.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1033.3336.99-0.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.1033.3364.19-0.000.03
NevadaMWC0.000.0933.3346.76-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0966.6763.730.000.03
KansasB120.000.0950.0061.790.000.02
OhioMAC0.000.0950.0056.270.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0775.0060.550.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0733.3349.42-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.07100.0071.440.000.03
USCP120.000.0750.0027.780.00-0.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0766.6773.760.000.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0733.3335.92-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.0025.43-0.00-0.03
ColoradoP120.000.0766.6760.720.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0018.27-0.00-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.070.0034.98-0.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.07100.0087.190.000.05
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0766.6752.030.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0775.0071.100.000.03
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0750.0051.860.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.07100.0045.790.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0733.3327.11-0.00-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0725.0049.94-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0750.0053.430.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.070.0032.07-0.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.070.0028.50-0.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0750.0037.760.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0750.0063.070.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.07100.0069.180.000.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.07100.0085.100.000.05
CaliforniaP120.000.0775.0069.830.000.03
KentuckySEC0.000.07100.0085.630.000.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0750.0041.720.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0750.0061.440.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0733.3340.91-0.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0766.6761.350.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.0750.0029.910.00-0.03
ArizonaP120.000.07100.0069.320.000.03
Michigan St.B100.000.0766.6771.600.000.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0766.6754.020.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.06100.0065.060.000.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0666.6767.990.000.02
BaylorB120.000.06100.0069.300.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0061.500.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0666.6760.610.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0049.250.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0625.0051.56-0.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0061.830.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0666.6755.980.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0633.3345.85-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0052.590.000.00
TexasB120.000.06100.0081.740.000.04
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0067.570.000.02
XavierBE0.000.06100.0077.070.000.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0041.59-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0031.92-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.50-0.00-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0018.48-0.00-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0039.15-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0675.0071.090.000.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0073.660.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0031.23-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.03100.0070.030.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0033.68-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0350.0053.040.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0350.0052.290.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0033.25-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.03100.0043.160.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0325.0035.65-0.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0350.0031.810.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6751.200.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0073.530.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.030.0033.14-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0071.840.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.03100.0080.090.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0032.69-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0333.3341.92-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0350.0033.700.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.030.0050.76-0.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0366.6748.850.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0350.0035.040.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.030.0043.18-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0333.3332.78-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0333.3341.77-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.03100.0062.040.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0059.190.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0366.6748.330.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0350.0068.880.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0057.540.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0084.890.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.030.0036.36-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0046.020.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0366.6769.640.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0333.3341.21-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6758.190.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0350.0063.720.000.01
LibertyBSth2.780.0333.3335.41-0.93-0.01
Long Beach St.BW2.780.0333.3353.79-0.930.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0333.3322.74-0.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.03100.0042.120.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0071.340.000.01
PurdueB100.000.03100.0060.550.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0042.680.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6765.320.000.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0062.510.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0054.710.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0366.6758.650.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0333.3362.56-0.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0056.330.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0375.0054.790.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0375.0055.790.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0350.0053.100.000.00