Southern Utah

Conference:	BSky
Expected RPI:	314.0
Current RPI:	314
Expected SOS:	300
Current SOS:	300
Current Record:	9-20
Expected Record:	9-20
Current Conf Record:	8-13
Expected Conf Record:	8-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-11
Current OOC Record:	1-7
Expected OOC Record:	1-7
Expected OOC RPI:	314
Expected OOC SOS:	170

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-20	314.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Utah.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Gonzaga (6.0)	WCC	A	103-65	L	0%
11-16	Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)	Horz	N	66-54	L	0%
11-17	Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)	BW	N	69-112	L	0%
11-18	Nevada (171.0)	MWC	A	79-61	L	0%
11-29	Texas Christian (238.0)	B12	A	61-52	L	0%
12-4	San Diego (165.0)	WCC	H	53-67	L	0%
12-17	North Dakota (226.0)	BSky	H	79-67	W	100%
12-21	Denver (64.0)	WAC	A	72-47	L	0%
12-29	Northern Colorado (257.0)	BSky	H	51-50	W	100%
1-5	Northern Arizona (255.0)	BSky	A	77-90	W	100%
1-7	Sacramento St. (283.0)	BSky	A	64-59	L	0%
1-10	Weber St. (84.0)	BSky	H	74-81	L	0%
1-12	Idaho St. (337.0)	BSky	H	53-54	L	0%
1-17	Montana (66.0)	BSky	A	73-67	L	0%
1-21	Montana St. (317.0)	BSky	A	76-68	L	0%
1-24	Portland St. (339.0)	BSky	H	76-63	W	100%
1-26	Eastern Washington (321.0)	BSky	H	69-55	W	100%
1-31	Sacramento St. (283.0)	BSky	H	79-67	W	100%
2-2	Northern Arizona (255.0)	BSky	H	78-67	W	100%
2-7	Idaho St. (337.0)	BSky	A	79-81	W	100%
2-9	Weber St. (84.0)	BSky	A	75-58	L	0%
2-14	Portland St. (339.0)	BSky	A	90-69	L	0%
2-16	Eastern Washington (321.0)	BSky	A	86-72	L	0%
2-23	Cal St. Northridge (254.0)	BW	H	73-72	W	100%
2-28	Montana St. (317.0)	BSky	H	61-62	L	0%
3-4	Montana (66.0)	BSky	H	74-86	L	0%
3-7	Northern Colorado (257.0)	BSky	A	66-58	L	0%
3-9	North Dakota (226.0)	BSky	A	68-61	L	0%
3-14	North Dakota (226.0)	BSky	N	69-52	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Utah's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Southern Utah's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Southern Utah.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Southern Utah	BSky	26.56	26.56	28.93	28.93	-11.19	-11.19
North Dakota	BSky	6.30	6.30	44.44	44.44	-0.70	-0.70
Weber St.	BSky	4.78	4.78	78.57	78.57	2.73	2.73
Montana	BSky	4.72	4.72	77.78	77.78	2.62	2.62
Northern Colorado	BSky	4.70	4.70	37.04	37.04	-1.22	-1.22
Northern Arizona	BSky	4.64	4.64	36.67	36.67	-1.24	-1.24
Eastern Washington	BSky	4.64	4.64	31.03	31.03	-1.76	-1.76
Montana St.	BSky	4.63	4.63	34.62	34.62	-1.42	-1.42
Idaho St.	BSky	4.60	4.60	14.81	14.81	-3.24	-3.24
Sacramento St.	BSky	4.57	4.57	44.00	44.00	-0.55	-0.55
Portland St.	BSky	4.56	4.56	20.83	20.83	-2.66	-2.66
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	1.95	1.95	37.93	37.93	-0.47	-0.47
San Diego	WCC	1.87	1.87	41.94	41.94	-0.30	-0.30
Cal St. Northridge	BW	1.86	1.86	42.86	42.86	-0.27	-0.27
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	1.78	1.78	51.61	51.61	0.06	0.06
Nevada	MWC	1.78	1.78	34.48	34.48	-0.55	-0.55
Gonzaga	WCC	1.78	1.78	93.55	93.55	1.55	1.55
Denver	WAC	1.72	1.72	68.97	68.97	0.65	0.65
Texas Christian	B12	1.72	1.72	30.00	30.00	-0.69	-0.69
UC Davis	BW	0.38	0.38	45.16	45.16	-0.04	-0.04
Brigham Young	WCC	0.34	0.34	64.52	64.52	0.10	0.10
Portland	WCC	0.30	0.30	30.00	30.00	-0.12	-0.12
Idaho	WAC	0.26	0.26	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Hawaii	BW	0.26	0.26	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.25	0.25	31.25	31.25	-0.10	-0.10
UC Riverside	BW	0.24	0.24	14.29	14.29	-0.17	-0.17
San Jose St.	WAC	0.24	0.24	28.57	28.57	-0.10	-0.10
Cal Poly	BW	0.23	0.23	55.17	55.17	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.23	0.23	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
St. Mary's	WCC	0.22	0.22	81.25	81.25	0.14	0.14
Oregon	P12	0.21	0.21	76.47	76.47	0.11	0.11
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.21	0.21	31.03	31.03	-0.08	-0.08
Colorado St.	MWC	0.21	0.21	74.19	74.19	0.10	0.10
UC Irvine	BW	0.20	0.20	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.20	0.20	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.17	0.17	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.17	0.17	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.17	0.17	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Wyoming	MWC	0.17	0.17	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Pacific	BW	0.17	0.17	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.17	0.17	78.79	78.79	0.10	0.10
Santa Clara	WCC	0.16	0.16	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Oregon St.	P12	0.15	0.15	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.15	0.15	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
Long Beach St.	BW	0.15	0.15	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.15	0.15	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Washington St.	P12	0.14	0.14	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.12	0.12	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.12	0.12	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Wright St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Utah Valley	GWC	0.11	0.11	35.71	35.71	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Davidson	SC	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Bowling Green	MAC	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.09	0.09	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Texas St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Texas	B12	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	85.19	85.19	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01