live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Southern Utah

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:307.0
Current RPI:307
Expected SOS:312
Current SOS:312
Current Record:9-19
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:7-11
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-9
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:298
Expected OOC SOS:255



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-19307.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Utah.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Kansas St. (100.0)B12A98-68L0%0.0
11-16Miami OH (229.0)MACA76-63L0%0.0
11-22Utah Valley (308.0)WACH75-85L0%0.0
11-26Eastern Kentucky (156.0)OVCH64-73L0%0.0
11-30UTSA (237.0)CUSAA92-93W100%0.0
12-14Boise St. (40.0)MWCA79-60L0%0.0
12-19Loyola Chicago (123.0)MVCA73-57L0%0.0
12-22Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACN70-61L0%0.0
12-23South Carolina St. (320.0)MEACN66-56W100%0.0
12-27UNLV (114.0)MWCA79-45L0%0.0
1-1Portland St. (225.0)BSkyA71-68L0%0.0
1-3Sacramento St. (141.0)BSkyA90-75L0%0.0
1-10Northern Arizona (166.0)BSkyA70-67L0%0.0
1-15Idaho St. (343.0)BSkyH71-67W100%0.0
1-17Weber St. (263.0)BSkyH70-60W100%0.0
1-22Montana St. (325.0)BSkyA79-65L0%0.0
1-24Montana (144.0)BSkyA58-56L0%0.0
1-31Northern Arizona (166.0)BSkyH60-81L0%0.0
2-5North Dakota (310.0)BSkyH85-89L0%0.0
2-7Northern Colorado (245.0)BSkyH80-84L0%0.0
2-12Weber St. (263.0)BSkyA56-65W100%0.0
2-14Idaho St. (343.0)BSkyA67-71W100%0.0
2-19Eastern Washington (74.0)BSkyH75-78L0%0.0
2-21Idaho (267.0)BSkyH79-77W100%0.0
2-26Northern Colorado (245.0)BSkyA77-67L0%0.0
2-28North Dakota (310.0)BSkyA65-71W100%0.0
3-5Sacramento St. (141.0)BSkyH69-65W100%0.0
3-7Portland St. (225.0)BSkyH73-86L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Utah's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern Utah's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern Utah.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southern UtahBSky26.2926.2934.0934.09-8.37-8.37
Northern ArizonaBSky4.584.5853.3353.330.310.31
Sacramento St.BSky4.544.5462.9662.961.181.18
Portland St.BSky4.434.4344.0044.00-0.53-0.53
Northern ColoradoBSky4.434.4342.3142.31-0.68-0.68
North DakotaBSky4.384.3819.2319.23-2.69-2.69
Idaho St.BSky4.374.3719.2319.23-2.69-2.69
Weber St.BSky4.374.3742.3142.31-0.67-0.67
MontanaBSky2.842.8458.6258.620.490.49
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.822.8273.3373.331.321.32
IdahoBSky2.722.7240.7440.74-0.50-0.50
Montana St.BSky2.692.6917.8617.86-1.73-1.73
Utah ValleyWAC2.162.1629.6329.63-0.88-0.88
Boise St.MWC1.931.9373.3373.330.900.90
UTSACUSA1.871.8744.4444.44-0.21-0.21
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.851.8555.1755.170.190.19
UNLVMWC1.841.8451.6151.610.060.06
South Carolina St.MEAC1.821.8230.0030.00-0.73-0.73
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.811.8159.2659.260.340.34
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.791.7935.4835.48-0.52-0.52
Kansas St.B121.791.7945.1645.16-0.17-0.17
Miami OHMAC1.791.7936.6736.67-0.48-0.48
Utah St.MWC0.270.2756.6756.670.040.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.250.2536.6736.67-0.07-0.07
WyomingMWC0.240.2471.8871.880.100.10
South Dakota St.Sum0.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.190.1925.0025.00-0.10-0.10
PortlandWCC0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
SeattleWAC0.180.1848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.180.1881.2581.250.110.11
New MexicoMWC0.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.180.1825.0025.00-0.09-0.09
NevadaMWC0.180.1824.1424.14-0.09-0.09
Air ForceMWC0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.160.1651.7251.720.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.160.1639.2939.29-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.150.1590.9190.910.130.13
Texas TechB120.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
UC RiversideBW0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
UC DavisBW0.130.1379.3179.310.070.07
Washington St.P120.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1270.0070.000.050.05
DrakeMVC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Illinois St.MVC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
UMKCWAC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1262.9662.960.030.03
OklahomaB120.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
TCUB120.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.110.110.000.00-0.11-0.11
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1164.7164.710.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1038.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
BYUWCC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
BelmontOVC0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.096.906.90-0.08-0.08
Northern KentuckyASun0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
ArizonaP120.090.0991.1891.180.070.07
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0952.9452.940.010.01
BradleyMVC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.090.0958.8258.820.020.02
HoustonAmer0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.05-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0875.8675.860.040.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
ToledoMAC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
KansasB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
OregonP120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
USCP120.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
LSUSEC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
PacificWCC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.060.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
KentuckySEC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.060.0693.9493.940.050.05
UC IrvineBW0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0687.1087.100.040.04
CaliforniaP120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Michigan St.B100.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0671.4371.430.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
BaylorB120.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
Iowa St.B120.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
MississippiSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0618.7518.75-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
TexasB120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
XavierBE0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0327.2727.27-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
ElonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
TempleAmer0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01