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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Southern Utah

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:341.0
Current RPI:341
Expected SOS:293
Current SOS:293
Current Record:4-27
Expected Record:4-27
Current Conf Record:4-16
Expected Conf Record:4-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-15
Current OOC Record:0-11
Expected OOC Record:0-11
Expected OOC RPI:346
Expected OOC SOS:240



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
4-27341.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Utah.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Valparaiso (71.0)HorzA79-65L0%0.0
11-14Saint Louis (238.0)A10A88-76L0%0.0
11-21Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBN68-83L0%0.0
11-23Ball St. (169.0)MACN83-94L0%0.0
11-30UNLV (242.0)MWCH81-89L0%0.0
12-3Oakland (109.0)HorzA78-68L0%0.0
12-8Loyola Marymount (153.0)WCCA75-68L0%0.0
12-10Cal St. Fullerton (269.0)BWA75-62L0%0.0
12-17IUPUI (218.0)SumH81-101L0%0.0
12-19Seattle (287.0)WACA89-75L0%0.0
12-21San Jose St. (191.0)MWCA92-82L0%0.0
12-31Northern Arizona (335.0)BSkyA80-93W100%0.0
1-5Northern Colorado (286.0)BSkyA76-78W100%0.0
1-7North Dakota (144.0)BSkyA95-65L0%0.0
1-12Sacramento St. (293.0)BSkyH83-88L0%0.0
1-14Portland St. (268.0)BSkyH77-88L0%0.0
1-19Idaho (209.0)BSkyA79-67L0%0.0
1-21Eastern Washington (148.0)BSkyA83-68L0%0.0
1-26North Dakota (144.0)BSkyH89-91L0%0.0
1-28Northern Colorado (286.0)BSkyH71-89L0%0.0
2-2Weber St. (185.0)BSkyA90-74L0%0.0
2-4Idaho St. (340.0)BSkyA94-68L0%0.0
2-9Montana (221.0)BSkyH55-70L0%0.0
2-11Montana St. (253.0)BSkyH78-83L0%0.0
2-18Northern Arizona (335.0)BSkyH84-68W100%0.0
2-23Portland St. (268.0)BSkyA93-86L0%0.0
2-25Sacramento St. (293.0)BSkyA86-76L0%0.0
3-2Eastern Washington (148.0)BSkyH75-91L0%0.0
3-4Idaho (209.0)BSkyH75-84L0%0.0
3-7Montana St. (253.0)BSkyN105-109W100%0.0
3-9Weber St. (185.0)BSkyN90-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Utah's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern Utah's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern Utah.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southern UtahBSky26.3426.3414.7714.77-18.56-18.56
North DakotaBSky4.194.1965.3865.381.291.29
Portland St.BSky4.194.1938.4638.46-0.97-0.97
Weber St.BSky4.164.1653.5753.570.300.30
Eastern WashingtonBSky4.164.1662.0762.071.001.00
Northern ArizonaBSky4.144.1427.5927.59-1.86-1.86
Sacramento St.BSky4.104.1033.3333.33-1.37-1.37
IdahoBSky4.104.1051.8551.850.150.15
Montana St.BSky4.054.0546.4346.43-0.29-0.29
Northern ColoradoBSky4.024.0232.0032.00-1.45-1.45
MontanaBSky2.582.5848.3948.39-0.08-0.08
Idaho St.BSky2.552.5510.3410.34-2.02-2.02
UNLVMWC1.751.7532.2632.26-0.62-0.62
San Jose St.MWC1.741.7440.7440.74-0.32-0.32
SeattleWAC1.721.7234.6234.62-0.53-0.53
Cal St. FullertonBW1.701.7050.0050.000.000.00
ValparaisoHorz1.691.6973.3373.330.790.79
Ball St.MAC1.691.6961.2961.290.380.38
Loyola MarymountWCC1.671.6746.4346.43-0.12-0.12
OaklandHorz1.661.6672.4172.410.750.75
IUPUISum1.641.6437.9337.93-0.40-0.40
Saint LouisA101.641.6434.3834.38-0.51-0.51
Coastal CarolinaSB1.611.6143.3343.33-0.22-0.22
UC DavisBW0.360.3662.5062.500.090.09
DenverSum0.300.3053.3353.330.020.02
South DakotaSum0.240.2464.5264.520.070.07
BYUWCC0.240.2466.6766.670.080.08
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.230.2367.8667.860.080.08
Santa ClaraWCC0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.220.2261.2961.290.050.05
Washington St.P120.220.2240.0040.00-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.210.2129.4129.41-0.09-0.09
North Dakota St.Sum0.200.2060.7160.710.040.04
Colorado St.MWC0.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
PepperdineWCC0.190.1926.6726.67-0.09-0.09
Nebraska OmahaSum0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.190.1943.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.170.1729.0329.03-0.07-0.07
UC RiversideBW0.170.1722.2222.22-0.09-0.09
South Dakota St.Sum0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
NevadaMWC0.160.1682.3582.350.110.11
Little RockSB0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
PacificWCC0.140.1431.2531.25-0.05-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1435.7135.71-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.140.1462.0762.070.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.140.1410.3410.34-0.11-0.11
San DiegoWCC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
WashingtonP120.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
StanfordP120.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Oral RobertsSum0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
DetroitHorz0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Green BayHorz0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
BuffaloMAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0918.5218.52-0.05-0.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
Arizona St.P120.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
OregonP120.080.0884.8584.850.050.05
DuquesneA100.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.060.0688.2488.240.050.05
BucknellPat0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
ButlerBE0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
OklahomaB120.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.060.0696.9796.970.050.05
HawaiiBW0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
UtahP120.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.010.01
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
USCP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.023.333.33-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
VCUA100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
WinthropBSth0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01