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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Sacramento St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:336.3
Current RPI:325
Expected SOS:321
Current SOS:176
Current Record:0-6
Expected Record:6-21
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-13
Current OOC Record:0-6
Expected OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC RPI:344
Expected OOC SOS:246



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-14251.10.08%
12-15270.80.32%
11-16288.10.90%
10-17303.92.38%
9-18315.95.50%
8-19325.611.23%
7-20333.217.07%
6-21339.120.26%
5-22343.218.74%
4-23346.013.46%
3-24347.97.12%
2-25349.12.28%
1-26349.80.57%
0-27350.10.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sacramento St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Colorado (74.9)P12A90-53L0%0.0
11-13Nebraska (86.3)B10A83-61L0%0.0
11-21UC Davis (252.0)BWN72-81L0%0.0
11-26San Francisco (158.3)WCCN59-77L0%0.0
11-27Denver (246.0)SumN61-72L0%0.0
12-1Pacific (171.2)WCCA74-58L0%0.0
12-10South Dakota (217.7)SumA0-014%-12.7
12-17Abilene Christian (190.8)SlndH0-029%-6.5
12-21Washington St. (225.1)P12A0-013%-13.4
12-29Northern Colorado (288.0)BSkyH0-043%-2.1
12-31North Dakota (236.5)BSkyH0-028%-6.9
1-7Portland St. (281.5)BSkyA0-023%-9.0
1-12Southern Utah (328.1)BSkyA0-035%-4.7
1-14Northern Arizona (338.3)BSkyA0-041%-2.7
1-19Montana St. (176.6)BSkyH0-022%-9.3
1-21Montana (243.3)BSkyH0-028%-7.0
1-28Portland St. (281.5)BSkyH0-041%-2.8
2-2Eastern Washington (199.9)BSkyA0-016%-11.8
2-4Idaho (228.1)BSkyA0-015%-12.5
2-9Weber St. (208.9)BSkyH0-024%-8.5
2-11Idaho St. (284.4)BSkyH0-044%-1.7
2-16Montana (243.3)BSkyA0-013%-13.3
2-18Montana St. (176.6)BSkyA0-010%-15.6
2-23Northern Arizona (338.3)BSkyH0-062%3.5
2-25Southern Utah (328.1)BSkyH0-055%1.6
3-2North Dakota (236.5)BSkyA0-014%-13.2
3-4Northern Colorado (288.0)BSkyA0-024%-8.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sacramento St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Sacramento St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Sacramento St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Sacramento St.BSky28.4226.350.0022.00-28.42-14.75
Portland St.BSky0.004.6540.0041.34-0.00-0.81
Northern ArizonaBSky0.524.6112.5021.97-0.39-2.59
Northern ColoradoBSky0.004.6016.6737.02-0.00-1.19
Montana St.BSky0.004.5950.0060.770.000.99
Southern UtahBSky0.004.580.0022.39-0.00-2.53
MontanaBSky0.004.5725.0045.94-0.00-0.37
North DakotaBSky0.004.5633.3352.17-0.000.20
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.192.8671.4354.140.510.24
Weber St.BSky1.122.8416.6748.63-0.74-0.08
IdahoBSky0.522.8250.0051.520.000.09
Idaho St.BSky0.002.7812.5028.20-0.00-1.21
South DakotaSum0.602.1450.0044.610.00-0.23
Washington St.P120.002.0742.8626.91-0.00-0.96
San FranciscoWCC8.332.0583.3351.845.560.08
DenverSum8.332.0533.3343.04-2.78-0.29
UC DavisBW8.331.9842.8644.04-1.19-0.24
ColoradoP128.331.9571.4361.333.570.44
PacificWCC8.331.9233.3344.28-2.78-0.22
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.001.8840.0053.87-0.000.15
NebraskaB108.331.8850.0042.930.00-0.27
Santa ClaraWCC0.520.3233.3332.35-0.17-0.11
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.3157.1458.940.000.06
PepperdineWCC0.000.2942.8633.23-0.00-0.10
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2633.3346.38-0.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.520.2650.0054.070.000.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.600.2328.5733.77-0.26-0.07
BYUWCC0.000.2262.5066.900.000.08
UC RiversideBW0.000.220.0032.52-0.00-0.08
UtahP120.000.2275.0059.790.000.04
San Jose St.MWC0.600.2250.0041.490.00-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.2142.8660.54-0.000.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.2025.0039.59-0.00-0.04
IUPUISum0.000.1937.5051.64-0.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1942.8655.09-0.000.02
SeattleWAC0.520.1916.6739.49-0.35-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.1937.5031.23-0.00-0.07
Oral RobertsSum0.000.190.0022.31-0.00-0.10
WashingtonP120.000.1957.1452.370.000.01
WyomingMWC1.190.1866.6754.050.400.01
Arizona St.P120.000.1762.5040.460.00-0.03
ArizonaP120.000.1675.0068.370.000.06
StanfordP120.000.1666.6758.060.000.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.600.1666.6757.300.200.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.16100.0091.920.000.13
UCLAP121.190.16100.0086.691.190.12
USCP120.000.15100.0076.680.000.08
OregonP120.000.1575.0072.250.000.07
IowaB100.000.1437.5037.74-0.00-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.13100.0089.330.000.10
Fort WayneSum0.000.1371.4370.210.000.05
Western IllinoisSum0.000.130.0016.68-0.00-0.09
CaliforniaP120.000.1385.7162.220.000.03
UNLVMWC0.000.1362.5043.800.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1228.5732.62-0.00-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1150.0058.040.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.1140.0041.93-0.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.1171.4348.350.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.600.1050.0041.540.00-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.520.1071.4360.540.220.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.600.100.0033.85-0.60-0.03
Little RockSB0.000.1066.6761.330.000.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1028.5742.90-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.1075.0066.170.000.03
OaklandHorz0.520.1085.7177.150.370.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.600.0942.8645.44-0.09-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0957.1448.500.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.600.0950.0054.070.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0925.0022.93-0.00-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.520.0985.7170.060.370.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0712.5030.39-0.00-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0720.0037.65-0.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0725.0043.41-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0712.5034.79-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0733.3352.84-0.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0742.8650.12-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0775.0061.490.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0762.5051.790.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0722.2221.23-0.00-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.0762.5058.450.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0766.6766.340.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.07100.0074.440.000.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0737.5033.74-0.00-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0742.8650.06-0.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0642.8647.11-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0642.8641.51-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0671.4356.250.000.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0625.0038.83-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.630.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0612.5037.99-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.520.060.0019.67-0.52-0.04
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.450.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0612.5030.68-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0038.27-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0671.4363.930.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0675.0066.460.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0655.5658.610.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0687.5068.610.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0675.0071.470.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0628.5723.78-0.00-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7174.990.000.03
WisconsinB100.000.0677.7876.040.000.03
TexasB120.520.0657.1438.680.07-0.01
XavierBE0.000.0687.5070.890.000.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0612.5033.65-0.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0046.410.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0620.0035.47-0.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0675.0048.500.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0675.0051.040.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.040.0039.53-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.040.0017.61-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0457.1458.840.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0442.8637.34-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0420.0041.92-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0425.0055.33-0.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0333.3352.21-0.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0357.1464.030.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.56-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.600.030.0034.27-0.60-0.01
TroySB0.600.0342.8636.19-0.09-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0023.69-0.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0342.8656.04-0.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0328.5741.52-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0325.0047.82-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.600.0371.4354.860.260.00
DaytonA100.600.0371.4373.490.260.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0050.840.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0333.3352.11-0.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0362.5043.220.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0385.7178.280.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.0362.5050.710.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0387.5074.490.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.600.0357.1459.280.090.01
KansasB120.000.0387.5075.860.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0387.5059.310.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0357.1454.360.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.600.0350.0071.020.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4358.920.000.01
MarylandB100.000.0387.5059.330.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0387.5068.020.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6738.58-0.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0350.0049.780.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0357.1453.990.000.00
Penn St.B100.000.0366.6746.420.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0375.0075.340.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0385.7145.370.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0371.4357.970.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0340.0058.82-0.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.180.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5062.040.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0362.5052.330.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.600.0385.7162.990.430.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0366.6740.030.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.600.0342.8651.95-0.090.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0325.0030.23-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.520.0316.6729.81-0.35-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0371.4358.600.000.01
NevadaMWC0.600.0377.7871.970.330.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.75-0.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.520.03100.0077.380.520.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0048.810.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.520.030.0034.81-0.52-0.01