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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Sacramento St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:263.0
Current RPI:263
Expected SOS:290
Current SOS:290
Current Record:12-16
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:10-11
Expected Conf Record:10-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-8
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC RPI:262
Expected OOC SOS:251



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-16263.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sacramento St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Cal St. Bakersfield (279.0)WACA74-66L0%0.0
11-18UCLA (14.0)P12A86-50L0%0.0
11-26UC Davis (326.0)BWA67-73W100%0.0
11-30UC Irvine (111.0)BWH53-79L0%0.0
12-7UTEP (103.0)CUSAA69-51L0%0.0
12-21Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWA59-51L0%0.0
12-29UC Riverside (319.0)BWH69-67W100%0.0
1-2Montana St. (275.0)BSkyA70-55L0%0.0
1-4Montana (183.0)BSkyA82-70L0%0.0
1-9Northern Arizona (247.0)BSkyA75-65L0%0.0
1-11Southern Utah (346.0)BSkyA49-77W100%0.0
1-16Portland St. (252.0)BSkyH64-68L0%0.0
1-18Eastern Washington (228.0)BSkyH75-64W100%0.0
1-23North Dakota (197.0)BSkyA82-71L0%0.0
1-25Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyA72-62L0%0.0
1-30Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyH84-78W100%0.0
2-1Weber St. (149.0)BSkyH78-75W100%0.0
2-6Northern Arizona (247.0)BSkyH87-70W100%0.0
2-10Southern Utah (346.0)BSkyH68-56W100%0.0
2-13Eastern Washington (228.0)BSkyA85-72L0%0.0
2-15Portland St. (252.0)BSkyA65-72W100%0.0
2-20North Dakota (197.0)BSkyH71-65W100%0.0
2-22Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyH79-58W100%0.0
2-27Weber St. (149.0)BSkyA79-67L0%0.0
3-1Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyA80-67L0%0.0
3-6Montana (183.0)BSkyH55-70L0%0.0
3-8Montana St. (275.0)BSkyH84-59W100%0.0
3-13North Dakota (197.0)BSkyN79-76L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sacramento St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Sacramento St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Sacramento St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Sacramento St.BSky26.5826.5843.6443.64-3.38-3.38
North DakotaBSky6.616.6146.4346.43-0.47-0.47
Portland St.BSky4.924.9251.8551.850.180.18
Weber St.BSky4.914.9161.5461.541.131.13
Northern ColoradoBSky4.904.9055.5655.560.540.54
Northern ArizonaBSky4.844.8444.8344.83-0.50-0.50
Montana St.BSky4.834.8340.7440.74-0.89-0.89
MontanaBSky4.804.8050.0050.000.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky4.804.8044.4444.44-0.53-0.53
Idaho St.BSky4.794.7932.0032.00-1.73-1.73
Southern UtahBSky4.774.773.853.85-4.40-4.40
UC RiversideBW2.182.1828.5728.57-0.93-0.93
UC IrvineBW2.122.1264.5264.520.620.62
Cal St. FullertonBW2.032.0333.3333.33-0.68-0.68
UC DavisBW2.022.0225.0025.00-1.01-1.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.981.9836.6736.67-0.53-0.53
UCLAP121.851.8575.7675.760.950.95
UTEPCUSA1.851.8566.6766.670.620.62
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.420.4245.4545.45-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.360.3662.0762.070.090.09
Cal PolyBW0.350.3536.6736.67-0.09-0.09
IdahoWAC0.340.3445.4545.45-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.270.2743.3343.33-0.04-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.260.2667.8667.860.090.09
WashingtonP120.250.2553.1253.120.020.02
SeattleWAC0.240.2439.2939.29-0.05-0.05
PortlandWCC0.220.2248.3948.39-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.210.2173.5373.530.100.10
OregonP120.190.1971.8871.880.080.08
USCP120.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
Colorado St.MWC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.150.1557.1457.140.020.02
UtahP120.150.1563.3363.330.040.04
CaliforniaP120.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
UTSACUSA0.140.1422.2222.22-0.08-0.08
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.120.1217.2417.24-0.08-0.08
WyomingMWC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
Arizona St.P120.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1246.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.110.1188.2488.240.080.08
StanfordP120.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0987.1087.100.070.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0930.3030.30-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0978.5778.570.050.05
WisconsinB100.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
NevadaMWC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
MinnesotaB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Seton HallBE0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
UMKCWAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
KansasB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01