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Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


Sacramento St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:248.3
Current RPI:230
Expected SOS:275
Current SOS:251
Current Record:3-4
Expected Record:12-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-9
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:222
Expected OOC SOS:278



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-8111.70.03%
18-9119.50.12%
17-10140.20.71%
16-11157.41.96%
15-12177.74.84%
14-13199.79.68%
13-14220.815.01%
12-15242.519.53%
11-16263.318.43%
10-17282.014.60%
9-18298.19.30%
8-19310.64.04%
7-20319.31.28%
6-21329.20.39%
5-22336.40.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sacramento St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Gonzaga (12.3)WCCA104-58L0%0.0
11-17UC Riverside (237.6)BWA69-70W100%0.0
12-1Utah Valley (272.9)WACH65-56W100%0.0
12-4Abilene Christian (319.8)SlndA72-61L0%0.0
12-6UC Irvine (202.6)BWA74-62L0%0.0
12-11Cal St. Fullerton (264.6)BWH73-59W100%0.0
12-14Portland (182.1)WCCH75-80L0%0.0
12-21Seattle (273.0)WACA0-033%-5.3
12-27Utah Valley (272.9)WACA0-039%-3.4
1-1Northern Arizona (220.1)BSkyH0-056%1.6
1-3Southern Utah (317.9)BSkyH0-078%9.3
1-8North Dakota (266.2)BSkyA0-044%-1.7
1-10Northern Colorado (161.7)BSkyA0-017%-11.2
1-15Idaho (223.5)BSkyH0-054%1.2
1-17Eastern Washington (59.0)BSkyH0-023%-8.9
1-22Idaho St. (297.9)BSkyA0-041%-2.8
1-24Weber St. (244.6)BSkyA0-032%-5.5
1-29Montana St. (290.8)BSkyH0-076%8.4
1-31Montana (169.3)BSkyH0-046%-1.1
2-7Portland St. (238.5)BSkyH0-063%4.0
2-12Eastern Washington (59.0)BSkyA0-07%-17.8
2-14Idaho (223.5)BSkyA0-026%-7.8
2-19Northern Colorado (161.7)BSkyH0-042%-2.3
2-21North Dakota (266.2)BSkyH0-073%7.3
2-28Portland St. (238.5)BSkyA0-034%-5.0
3-5Southern Utah (317.9)BSkyA0-051%0.3
3-7Northern Arizona (220.1)BSkyA0-027%-7.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sacramento St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Sacramento St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Sacramento St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Sacramento St.BSky28.2026.4544.8344.56-2.92-2.88
Portland St.BSky0.964.7057.1447.000.14-0.28
Southern UtahBSky0.404.6416.6726.52-0.26-2.18
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.404.6266.6775.700.132.37
Northern ArizonaBSky0.004.5940.0048.61-0.00-0.13
North DakotaBSky0.004.5825.0032.57-0.00-1.60
Northern ColoradoBSky0.004.5733.3359.00-0.000.82
IdahoBSky0.004.5137.5048.77-0.00-0.11
Utah ValleyWAC7.144.0437.5041.94-1.79-0.65
Idaho St.BSky0.402.9316.6732.35-0.26-1.03
Montana St.BSky0.402.9025.0027.93-0.20-1.28
Weber St.BSky0.002.8628.5741.21-0.00-0.50
MontanaBSky0.002.8325.0050.88-0.000.05
SeattleWAC0.002.1237.5044.85-0.00-0.22
UC RiversideBW7.862.0950.0046.580.00-0.14
Cal St. FullertonBW7.142.0240.0040.71-1.43-0.38
PortlandWCC7.142.0271.4347.313.06-0.11
UC IrvineBW7.141.9828.5744.86-3.06-0.20
GonzagaWCC7.141.9288.8990.715.561.56
Abilene ChristianSlnd7.651.880.0023.62-7.65-0.99
UC DavisBW0.400.4485.7161.820.280.10
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.510.3511.1129.23-0.40-0.14
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.3440.0044.19-0.00-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.3422.2230.22-0.00-0.13
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.3140.0065.07-0.000.09
San FranciscoWCC0.000.3044.4449.60-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.2742.8644.96-0.00-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.960.2628.5722.66-0.41-0.14
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.2457.1454.620.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.2337.5064.38-0.000.07
Cal PolyBW0.000.2333.3332.44-0.00-0.08
Saint Mary'sWCC0.450.2271.4356.890.190.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.210.0011.59-0.00-0.16
UMKCWAC0.000.2122.2242.30-0.00-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.2175.0067.800.000.07
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.2025.0033.31-0.00-0.07
HawaiiBW0.000.2066.6753.390.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.2040.0050.27-0.000.00
PacificWCC0.450.2042.8638.51-0.06-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1737.5051.76-0.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.1666.6767.890.000.06
PepperdineWCC0.320.1671.4360.450.140.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.320.1650.0041.450.00-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.400.1450.0053.970.000.01
South DakotaSum0.400.1320.0040.86-0.24-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1350.0074.020.000.06
ArizonaP121.200.13100.0080.931.200.08
Washington St.P120.360.1340.0028.86-0.07-0.06
WyomingMWC0.000.1377.7873.060.000.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1355.5656.150.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.1342.8635.74-0.00-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.1354.5557.870.000.02
UCLAP121.190.1372.7357.470.540.02
OregonP120.000.1162.5057.800.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.450.100.0023.06-0.45-0.06
USCP120.320.1060.0037.100.06-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.10100.0077.640.000.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1066.6754.790.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.1077.7864.850.000.03
WashingtonP120.000.10100.0070.570.000.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.1020.0039.53-0.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1050.0033.140.00-0.03
UNLVMWC0.000.1071.4350.790.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.770.100.007.95-0.77-0.08
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1028.5726.77-0.00-0.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.450.1055.5655.850.050.01
CaliforniaP120.000.1090.0065.960.000.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.360.1011.1143.47-0.28-0.01
DrakeMVC0.450.1020.0020.57-0.27-0.06
UtahP120.510.1077.7880.520.280.06
SMUAmer0.360.1066.6770.530.120.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.360.1011.1145.10-0.28-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.450.1030.0028.54-0.18-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.0777.7871.340.000.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0711.1130.96-0.00-0.03
ColoradoP120.000.0766.6757.220.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0742.8655.73-0.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0013.10-0.00-0.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0766.6773.810.000.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0755.5639.260.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0760.0038.270.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0714.2932.21-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0722.2227.10-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.0711.1129.36-0.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0737.5031.71-0.00-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.450.0720.0037.42-0.27-0.02
NevadaMWC0.320.0712.5024.45-0.24-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0733.3363.92-0.000.02
IndianaB100.000.0780.0057.560.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0755.5647.220.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0790.0079.360.000.04
New MexicoMWC0.320.0666.6758.510.110.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0644.4449.79-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0644.4444.49-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0666.6751.450.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0650.0056.650.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0644.4469.77-0.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0034.13-0.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0655.5655.960.000.01
XavierBE0.000.0680.0071.140.000.03
Texas St.SB0.000.0460.0047.810.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0333.3332.65-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0015.96-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0387.5076.910.000.02
DuquesneA100.710.0333.3338.84-0.24-0.01
HoustonAmer0.710.0383.3358.570.480.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0362.5065.100.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0377.7861.940.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0325.0049.05-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0333.3334.02-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0039.09-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0019.38-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0035.83-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0377.7868.030.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0344.4444.67-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0322.2236.43-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0362.5078.030.000.02
TulsaAmer0.710.0355.5657.230.080.00
DenverSum0.000.0344.4455.06-0.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.450.0350.0058.490.000.01
Oregon St.P120.450.0375.0050.490.220.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0377.7875.600.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.450.0380.0069.650.270.01
FIUCUSA0.320.0350.0054.480.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0094.460.000.03
USC UpstateASun0.320.0366.6765.150.110.01
Wright St.Horz0.320.0355.5653.100.040.00
GeorgiaSEC0.360.0362.5059.380.090.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0350.0059.030.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.360.0355.5639.850.04-0.01
St. John'sBE0.360.0387.5064.670.270.01