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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Sacramento St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:141.0
Current RPI:141
Expected SOS:277
Current SOS:277
Current Record:18-11
Expected Record:18-11
Current Conf Record:14-6
Expected Conf Record:14-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-5
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:210
Expected OOC SOS:276



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-11141.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sacramento St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Gonzaga (8.0)WCCA104-58L0%0.0
11-17UC Riverside (234.0)BWA69-70W100%0.0
12-1Utah Valley (308.0)WACH65-56W100%0.0
12-4Abilene Christian (324.0)SlndA72-61L0%0.0
12-6UC Irvine (88.0)BWA74-62L0%0.0
12-11Cal St. Fullerton (314.0)BWH73-59W100%0.0
12-14Portland (149.0)WCCH75-80L0%0.0
12-21Seattle (280.0)WACA66-47L0%0.0
12-27Utah Valley (308.0)WACA49-74W100%0.0
1-1Northern Arizona (166.0)BSkyH78-73W100%0.0
1-3Southern Utah (307.0)BSkyH90-75W100%0.0
1-8North Dakota (310.0)BSkyA61-63W100%0.0
1-10Northern Colorado (245.0)BSkyA84-73L0%0.0
1-15Idaho (267.0)BSkyH79-76W100%0.0
1-17Eastern Washington (74.0)BSkyH90-77W100%0.0
1-22Idaho St. (343.0)BSkyA59-62W100%0.0
1-24Weber St. (263.0)BSkyA71-78W100%0.0
1-29Montana St. (325.0)BSkyH75-59W100%0.0
1-31Montana (144.0)BSkyH70-69W100%0.0
2-7Portland St. (225.0)BSkyH64-60W100%0.0
2-12Eastern Washington (74.0)BSkyA64-61L0%0.0
2-14Idaho (267.0)BSkyA69-58L0%0.0
2-19Northern Colorado (245.0)BSkyH66-59W100%0.0
2-21North Dakota (310.0)BSkyH74-66W100%0.0
2-28Portland St. (225.0)BSkyA60-73W100%0.0
3-5Southern Utah (307.0)BSkyA69-65L0%0.0
3-7Northern Arizona (166.0)BSkyA70-68L0%0.0
3-12Portland St. (225.0)BSkyN70-60W100%0.0
3-13Eastern Washington (74.0)BSkyN91-83L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sacramento St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Sacramento St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Sacramento St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Sacramento St.BSky26.5826.5867.2367.239.169.16
Eastern WashingtonBSky6.156.1575.0075.003.073.07
Portland St.BSky6.126.1254.1754.170.510.51
Northern ArizonaBSky4.434.4356.6756.670.590.59
Southern UtahBSky4.384.3830.7730.77-1.69-1.69
Northern ColoradoBSky4.374.3746.1546.15-0.34-0.34
IdahoBSky4.374.3738.4638.46-1.01-1.01
North DakotaBSky4.324.3223.0823.08-2.32-2.32
Utah ValleyWAC3.773.7734.6234.62-1.16-1.16
MontanaBSky2.852.8562.0762.070.690.69
Idaho St.BSky2.772.7718.5218.52-1.74-1.74
Montana St.BSky2.742.7421.4321.43-1.57-1.57
Weber St.BSky2.732.7340.7440.74-0.51-0.51
UC RiversideBW1.991.9942.8642.86-0.28-0.28
SeattleWAC1.991.9946.4346.43-0.14-0.14
PortlandWCC1.901.9048.2848.28-0.07-0.07
UC IrvineBW1.871.8760.0060.000.370.37
Cal St. FullertonBW1.871.8725.0025.00-0.93-0.93
GonzagaWCC1.781.7893.7593.751.561.56
Abilene ChristianSlnd1.751.7522.2222.22-0.97-0.97
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.400.4036.6736.67-0.11-0.11
UC DavisBW0.390.3979.3179.310.230.23
San FranciscoWCC0.340.3441.9441.94-0.06-0.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.330.3322.5822.58-0.18-0.18
Grand CanyonWAC0.300.3051.7251.720.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.300.3067.7467.740.110.11
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.240.2425.0025.00-0.12-0.12
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.230.2356.6756.670.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.220.2223.3323.33-0.12-0.12
Saint Mary'sWCC0.220.2268.9768.970.080.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.220.2267.7467.740.080.08
Chicago St.WAC0.210.2117.2417.24-0.14-0.14
UMKCWAC0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Northern KentuckyASun0.210.2139.2939.29-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.200.2060.6160.610.040.04
Cal PolyBW0.200.2040.7440.74-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.200.2071.8871.880.090.09
Boise St.MWC0.180.1874.1974.190.090.09
Long Beach St.BW0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.170.1732.1432.14-0.06-0.06
PepperdineWCC0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.150.1572.4172.410.070.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
USCP120.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.1238.4638.46-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
Utah St.MWC0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
WyomingMWC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1270.0070.000.050.05
South DakotaSum0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.120.1291.1891.180.100.10
UTSACUSA0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
WashingtonP120.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
CaliforniaP120.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.110.1181.2581.250.070.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1164.7164.710.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
UtahP120.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0981.2581.250.060.06
DrakeMVC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.090.090.000.00-0.09-0.09
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0662.9662.960.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
ColoradoP120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0658.3358.330.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0642.3142.31-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0690.9190.910.050.05
StetsonASun0.060.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
TulsaAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
Texas St.SB0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01