Sacramento St.

Conference:	BSky
Expected RPI:	304.4
Current RPI:	313
Expected SOS:	319
Current SOS:	332
Current Record:	6-14
Expected Record:	9-17
Current Conf Record:	3-8
Expected Conf Record:	5-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-9
Current OOC Record:	3-6
Expected OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC RPI:	318
Expected OOC SOS:	332

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-14	264.9	0.45%
11-15	280.7	4.56%
10-16	292.4	17.49%
9-17	301.7	32.17%
8-18	310.4	29.62%
7-19	319.1	13.33%
6-20	327.2	2.37%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sacramento St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-13	Central Arkansas (298.6)	Slnd	H	75-54	W	100%	0.0
11-17	Washington St. (165.9)	P12	A	79-68	L	0%	0.0
11-22	UC Davis (342.3)	BW	A	61-69	W	100%	0.0
11-26	McNeese St. (205.8)	Slnd	H	63-68	L	0%	0.0
11-30	Cal Poly (194.2)	BW	A	77-51	L	0%	0.0
12-2	Oklahoma (93.0)	B12	A	82-53	L	0%	0.0
12-7	Cal St. Bakersfield (210.7)	ind	A	63-60	L	0%	0.0
12-18	North Dakota (265.8)	GWC	H	75-64	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Southeast Missouri St. (241.0)	OVC	H	76-77	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Northern Arizona (329.0)	BSky	A	73-64	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Weber St. (85.4)	BSky	A	74-63	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Northern Colorado (250.5)	BSky	H	53-61	L	0%	0.0
1-12	Eastern Washington (209.8)	BSky	H	60-65	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Idaho St. (263.0)	BSky	H	67-68	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Montana St. (260.8)	BSky	A	72-65	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Montana (99.2)	BSky	A	85-56	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Weber St. (85.4)	BSky	H	60-75	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Northern Arizona (329.0)	BSky	H	77-43	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Northern Colorado (250.5)	BSky	A	62-73	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Eastern Washington (209.8)	BSky	A	71-75	W	100%	0.0
2-9	Montana St. (260.8)	BSky	H	0-0		66%	4.4
2-11	Montana (99.2)	BSky	H	0-0		20%	-9.3
2-15	Portland St. (207.7)	BSky	A	0-0		24%	-7.5
2-18	San Jose St. (280.7)	WAC	H	0-0		62%	3.3
2-23	Portland St. (207.7)	BSky	H	0-0		46%	-1.0
2-25	Idaho St. (263.0)	BSky	A	0-0		46%	-1.2

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sacramento St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Sacramento St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Sacramento St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Sacramento St.	BSky	26.68	26.49	31.25	32.55	-10.01	-9.24
Idaho St.	BSky	3.55	4.96	28.57	29.58	-1.52	-2.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	5.84	4.92	40.00	43.85	-1.17	-0.60
Northern Arizona	BSky	5.84	4.91	10.00	13.53	-4.67	-3.58
Montana St.	BSky	3.32	4.91	42.11	39.59	-0.52	-1.02
Portland St.	BSky	1.07	4.89	42.86	44.50	-0.15	-0.54
Montana	BSky	3.34	4.88	70.00	72.70	1.33	2.22
Northern Colorado	BSky	5.70	4.87	27.78	29.85	-2.53	-1.96
Weber St.	BSky	5.59	4.87	77.78	74.77	3.10	2.41
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	2.79	2.24	45.45	45.88	-0.25	-0.18
San Jose St.	WAC	0.42	2.21	27.27	26.55	-0.19	-1.03
Cal Poly	BW	2.67	2.20	47.62	55.21	-0.13	0.23
UC Davis	BW	2.67	2.16	0.00	5.50	-2.67	-1.92
North Dakota	GWC	2.67	2.13	35.29	43.02	-0.79	-0.30
Central Arkansas	Slnd	2.63	2.03	29.41	30.96	-1.08	-0.77
McNeese St.	Slnd	2.57	2.03	41.18	43.01	-0.45	-0.28
Oklahoma	B12	2.61	2.02	54.55	52.35	0.24	0.10
Washington St.	P12	2.67	2.02	47.62	46.32	-0.13	-0.15
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	2.57	2.00	45.00	45.16	-0.26	-0.19
Idaho	WAC	0.41	0.45	50.00	51.46	0.00	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.40	0.42	65.00	66.71	0.12	0.14
Seattle	ind	0.18	0.35	22.22	32.99	-0.10	-0.12
UC Irvine	BW	0.30	0.31	35.00	35.26	-0.09	-0.09
Wyoming	MWC	0.24	0.28	76.19	70.71	0.13	0.12
UC Riverside	BW	0.30	0.27	42.86	39.66	-0.04	-0.06
Pacific	BW	0.23	0.27	35.00	37.55	-0.07	-0.07
Utah	P12	0.30	0.25	18.18	15.00	-0.19	-0.17
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.30	0.25	69.57	69.00	0.12	0.09
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.07	0.25	42.86	43.52	-0.01	-0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.17	0.24	63.64	63.17	0.05	0.06
Hawaii	WAC	0.17	0.24	57.14	53.02	0.02	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.23	0.24	69.57	64.49	0.09	0.07
Utah Valley	GWC	0.13	0.22	54.55	57.71	0.01	0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.25	0.21	81.82	81.02	0.16	0.13
Pepperdine	WCC	0.29	0.21	31.82	33.75	-0.10	-0.07
Arizona St.	P12	0.23	0.21	30.43	31.40	-0.09	-0.08
Utah St.	WAC	0.18	0.21	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.23	0.21	59.09	57.69	0.04	0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.23	0.20	21.05	22.46	-0.13	-0.11
Long Beach St.	BW	0.23	0.20	71.43	73.45	0.10	0.10
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.20	0.18	27.78	29.51	-0.09	-0.08
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.26	0.18	55.00	54.45	0.03	0.02
California	P12	0.25	0.18	75.00	74.62	0.13	0.09
St. Mary's	WCC	0.30	0.18	90.91	87.78	0.24	0.13
San Francisco	WCC	0.17	0.18	56.52	53.76	0.02	0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.06	0.17	80.95	76.42	0.04	0.09
UCLA	P12	0.23	0.17	54.55	56.78	0.02	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.12	0.15	33.33	38.39	-0.04	-0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.12	0.15	19.05	24.60	-0.08	-0.08
Lamar	Slnd	0.21	0.15	61.90	67.29	0.05	0.05
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.14	0.15	25.00	23.73	-0.07	-0.08
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.07	0.15	76.19	75.98	0.04	0.08
Brigham Young	WCC	0.24	0.15	75.00	76.02	0.12	0.08
Colorado St.	MWC	0.18	0.15	66.67	60.84	0.06	0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.18	0.15	34.78	38.43	-0.06	-0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.18	0.15	26.32	29.85	-0.09	-0.06
Denver	SB	0.13	0.14	70.83	72.24	0.05	0.06
Southern Utah	Sum	0.24	0.14	45.45	44.27	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.18	0.14	70.83	66.50	0.07	0.05
Arizona	P12	0.17	0.14	66.67	68.55	0.06	0.05
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.12	0.13	55.56	58.02	0.01	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.18	0.11	61.90	63.52	0.04	0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.19	0.11	33.33	34.54	-0.06	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.18	0.11	54.17	54.76	0.02	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.13	0.11	4.35	9.74	-0.12	-0.09
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.00	0.11	57.14	60.72	0.00	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.11	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.18	0.11	82.61	81.43	0.12	0.07
Portland	WCC	0.12	0.10	21.74	21.75	-0.07	-0.06
Stanford	P12	0.19	0.10	69.57	68.33	0.07	0.04
Kansas	B12	0.18	0.10	78.26	78.42	0.10	0.06
Gonzaga	WCC	0.17	0.10	81.82	81.50	0.11	0.06
Missouri	B12	0.17	0.10	91.67	87.92	0.14	0.08
Texas Tech	B12	0.11	0.10	30.43	25.84	-0.04	-0.05
Fresno St.	WAC	0.06	0.10	39.13	44.46	-0.01	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.11	0.10	25.00	25.08	-0.06	-0.05
Santa Clara	WCC	0.11	0.10	28.57	26.31	-0.05	-0.05
Chicago St.	GWC	0.07	0.08	9.09	12.82	-0.06	-0.06
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.07	0.08	25.00	28.48	-0.03	-0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.14	0.08	73.91	75.47	0.07	0.04
Western Illinois	Sum	0.14	0.08	52.63	48.32	0.01	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.13	0.07	24.00	24.86	-0.07	-0.04
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.13	0.07	34.78	35.19	-0.04	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.13	0.07	80.00	76.67	0.08	0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.13	0.07	62.50	61.43	0.03	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.13	0.07	47.62	48.48	-0.01	-0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.14	0.07	44.44	48.16	-0.02	-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.07	0.07	17.39	20.75	-0.05	-0.04
Texas St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	22.22	27.56	-0.04	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.13	0.07	34.78	37.27	-0.04	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.13	0.07	37.50	38.36	-0.03	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.07	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.07	100.00	94.58	0.06	0.06
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.07	26.32	29.64	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado	P12	0.11	0.07	66.67	62.69	0.04	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.07	42.86	41.08	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.00	0.07	19.05	19.39	-0.00	-0.04
South Dakota	Sum	0.11	0.07	26.32	28.82	-0.05	-0.03
Washington	P12	0.06	0.07	69.57	66.59	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.07	42.11	49.86	-0.01	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.06	90.91	83.90	0.04	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.06	73.91	68.41	0.05	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.06	47.83	42.67	-0.00	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.00	0.06	62.50	62.20	0.00	0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.06	50.00	45.20	0.00	-0.01
Longwood	ind	0.00	0.04	28.57	25.79	-0.00	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.07	0.04	54.17	47.95	0.01	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.07	0.04	52.17	50.01	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.07	0.04	66.67	69.71	0.02	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.07	0.04	54.17	49.41	0.01	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.07	0.04	85.71	82.22	0.05	0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.07	0.04	43.48	43.27	-0.01	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.04	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.06	0.04	30.00	34.18	-0.02	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.04	45.45	47.09	-0.01	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.04	38.10	37.80	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.04	56.52	53.06	0.01	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.04	60.87	59.85	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.06	0.03	8.33	10.84	-0.05	-0.03
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.03	47.83	42.19	-0.00	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.03	14.29	14.31	-0.04	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.03	52.17	58.49	0.00	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	23.81	33.67	-0.03	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.03	85.71	78.11	0.04	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.18	0.02	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.37	0.02	0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.58	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.03	80.77	80.77	0.03	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	14.29	16.80	-0.04	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	77.70	0.03	0.02