live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Sacramento St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:250.4
Current RPI:266
Expected SOS:295
Current SOS:281
Current Record:8-11
Expected Record:12-15
Current Conf Record:3-7
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-9
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:196
Expected OOC SOS:308



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-11184.00.25%
15-12200.72.68%
14-13218.613.99%
13-14237.928.00%
12-15257.630.33%
11-16275.518.45%
10-17291.15.45%
9-18304.50.81%
8-19319.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sacramento St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Arizona St. (79.5)P12A63-66W100%0.0
11-15Seattle (270.2)WACA65-77W100%0.0
11-24UC Davis (255.2)BWH84-79W100%0.0
11-28South Dakota (192.1)SumH90-96L0%0.0
11-29Pacific (241.8)WCCH79-71W100%0.0
12-2UC Davis (255.2)BWA66-61L0%0.0
12-7Incarnate Word (189.6)SlndH73-70W100%0.0
12-12Portland (240.6)WCCA81-73L0%0.0
12-21Stanford (87.7)P12A70-60L0%0.0
1-2Portland St. (281.6)BSkyA76-68L0%0.0
1-7Montana St. (255.2)BSkyA71-64L0%0.0
1-9Montana (146.2)BSkyA77-58L0%0.0
1-14Idaho St. (271.4)BSkyH82-71W100%0.0
1-16Weber St. (139.6)BSkyH74-85L0%0.0
1-23Portland St. (281.6)BSkyH63-81L0%0.0
1-28Idaho (219.4)BSkyA63-65W100%0.0
1-30Eastern Washington (207.4)BSkyA74-67L0%0.0
2-4Montana (146.2)BSkyH83-79W100%0.0
2-6Montana St. (255.2)BSkyH76-79L0%0.0
2-11Weber St. (139.6)BSkyA0-014%-11.7
2-13Idaho St. (271.4)BSkyA0-045%-1.4
2-18Eastern Washington (207.4)BSkyH0-051%0.3
2-20Idaho (219.4)BSkyH0-057%2.0
2-25Northern Colorado (308.9)BSkyA0-060%2.7
2-27North Dakota (210.8)BSkyA0-028%-6.2
3-3Southern Utah (334.5)BSkyH0-090%13.7
3-5Northern Arizona (322.2)BSkyH0-088%12.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sacramento St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Sacramento St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Sacramento St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Sacramento St.BSky26.7426.4442.3545.94-4.09-2.15
Portland St.BSky6.094.6723.5332.73-3.22-1.61
Eastern WashingtonBSky3.334.6550.0052.510.000.23
IdahoBSky3.224.5857.1457.450.460.68
Idaho St.BSky2.954.5447.3747.54-0.16-0.22
Weber St.BSky2.954.5463.1667.400.781.58
Montana St.BSky5.804.5235.0039.59-1.74-0.94
MontanaBSky5.784.5158.8263.351.021.20
UC DavisBW5.443.8338.8935.64-1.21-1.10
Northern ColoradoBSky0.642.8528.5726.51-0.28-1.34
Northern ArizonaBSky0.632.8510.0013.18-0.51-2.10
Southern UtahBSky0.632.8515.0015.51-0.44-1.97
North DakotaBSky0.642.8547.3749.03-0.03-0.06
PortlandWCC3.102.1937.5036.39-0.77-0.60
SeattleWAC2.892.0550.0046.800.00-0.13
PacificWCC2.751.9826.3230.04-1.30-0.79
Arizona St.P122.701.9256.5253.390.350.13
South DakotaSum2.691.9239.1339.14-0.59-0.42
StanfordP122.691.9147.3744.55-0.14-0.21
Incarnate WordSlnd2.631.8556.2554.230.330.16
Utah ValleyWAC0.450.3733.3334.95-0.15-0.11
North Dakota St.Sum0.510.3763.6462.150.140.09
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.430.3666.6767.710.140.13
Cal St. FullertonBW0.580.3433.3330.60-0.19-0.13
Washington St.P120.370.3336.3631.98-0.10-0.12
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.390.3031.8230.15-0.14-0.12
San Jose St.MWC0.500.3023.8122.82-0.26-0.16
DenverSum0.250.3054.1751.780.020.01
San FranciscoWCC0.370.2754.5550.110.030.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.380.2785.7185.380.270.19
GonzagaWCC0.260.2478.2676.880.150.13
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.270.2114.2915.45-0.19-0.14
Boise St.MWC0.320.2060.8760.530.070.04
PepperdineWCC0.310.2056.5257.280.040.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.120.2042.8650.41-0.020.00
San DiegoWCC0.320.2031.8229.13-0.11-0.08
HawaiiBW0.250.2084.2181.660.170.13
WashingtonP120.310.2062.5060.110.080.04
BYUWCC0.250.2066.6769.490.080.08
CaliforniaP120.330.2065.2262.830.100.05
UtahP120.200.2070.8368.500.080.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.190.2073.9174.700.090.10
ArizonaP120.190.2079.1778.330.110.11
UC IrvineBW0.200.1772.7371.660.090.07
UC RiversideBW0.260.1745.8341.65-0.02-0.03
NevadaMWC0.320.1757.1455.290.050.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.230.1658.3358.480.040.03
ColoradoP120.180.1669.5765.310.070.05
USCP120.110.1678.2673.050.060.07
LamarSlnd0.140.1430.0029.28-0.06-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.200.1482.6181.130.130.09
Cal PolyBW0.130.1430.0034.55-0.05-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.130.1445.4551.39-0.010.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.170.1339.1338.56-0.04-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.170.1330.4331.21-0.07-0.05
Utah St.MWC0.130.1347.6249.26-0.01-0.00
WyomingMWC0.240.1343.4842.47-0.03-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.130.1035.0034.80-0.04-0.03
KansasB120.140.1082.6179.190.090.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.1050.0049.770.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.1072.2275.620.020.05
UMKCWAC0.180.1028.5732.73-0.08-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.1043.4843.76-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.1090.4886.910.050.07
IUPUISum0.050.1040.0039.76-0.01-0.02
UNLVMWC0.110.1052.1755.090.000.01
OregonP120.120.1082.6179.250.080.06
Oregon St.P120.120.1061.9056.450.030.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1060.0057.640.020.01
UCLAP120.050.0956.5253.270.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.150.0718.1821.12-0.10-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0776.1972.310.040.03
Chicago St.WAC0.130.074.357.72-0.11-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0765.2268.590.020.03
Green BayHorz0.130.0754.5556.010.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.130.0743.4837.81-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.0717.3920.66-0.09-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0747.6252.03-0.000.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0758.3356.290.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0747.6249.35-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.060.0761.9058.060.010.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0720.8323.19-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.070.0745.4549.69-0.01-0.00
PittsburghACC0.060.0772.7367.630.030.02
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0728.5731.30-0.03-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0654.5552.540.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.120.0656.5257.000.020.01
IPFWSum0.110.0670.8368.590.050.02
North TexasCUSA0.060.0633.3333.07-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.110.0639.1341.11-0.02-0.01
SamfordSC0.060.0641.6742.61-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.120.0666.6762.560.040.02
TroySB0.060.0623.8126.72-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0627.7829.16-0.02-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0425.0030.04-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0447.8348.87-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0417.6529.03-0.05-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0427.7834.45-0.03-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0417.6526.58-0.05-0.02
OklahomaB120.080.0486.9682.580.060.02
PurdueB100.080.0480.0077.960.050.02
RiceCUSA0.080.0428.5729.66-0.03-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0445.0049.23-0.01-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0414.2924.86-0.06-0.02
St. John'sBE0.080.0425.0023.45-0.04-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0424.0025.67-0.03-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0450.0045.820.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0412.0011.96-0.00-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0463.6461.640.020.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0420.0022.26-0.04-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0456.0055.420.000.00
UABCUSA0.060.0482.6179.390.040.02
WisconsinB100.000.0462.5056.960.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0430.4332.35-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0370.8368.990.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0352.0050.230.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0359.0961.310.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0343.4850.66-0.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0366.6764.730.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0313.6413.63-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0350.0053.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0042.85-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0323.8126.56-0.03-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.070.0331.5831.74-0.02-0.01
DePaulBE0.070.0333.3334.01-0.02-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0324.0024.17-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.070.0386.9682.900.050.02
TexasB120.070.0366.6762.210.020.01
UMBCAE0.000.0324.0026.33-0.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0387.5086.870.050.02
IllinoisB100.050.0345.8344.11-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0359.0959.650.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0325.0027.23-0.03-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0356.5257.020.010.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0340.0040.34-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0373.0872.640.020.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0368.0066.660.020.01
CreightonBE0.050.0364.0062.040.020.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0321.7423.40-0.03-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0375.0072.630.030.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0364.0057.920.020.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0350.0049.050.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0375.0075.330.030.02