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Through games of Jan 31, 2015.


Sacramento St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:139.4
Current RPI:146
Expected SOS:279
Current SOS:301
Current Record:13-6
Expected Record:17-10
Current Conf Record:9-1
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-5
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:197
Expected OOC SOS:251



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-682.80.29%
20-797.64.50%
19-8110.414.46%
18-9125.726.53%
17-10143.728.14%
16-11165.118.28%
15-12187.36.51%
14-13208.01.15%
13-14224.10.13%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sacramento St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Gonzaga (7.0)WCCA104-58L0%0.0
11-17UC Riverside (254.5)BWA69-70W100%0.0
12-1Utah Valley (288.6)WACH65-56W100%0.0
12-4Abilene Christian (300.3)SlndA72-61L0%0.0
12-6UC Irvine (103.9)BWA74-62L0%0.0
12-11Cal St. Fullerton (282.7)BWH73-59W100%0.0
12-14Portland (162.9)WCCH75-80L0%0.0
12-21Seattle (284.4)WACA66-47L0%0.0
12-27Utah Valley (288.6)WACA49-74W100%0.0
1-1Northern Arizona (203.6)BSkyH78-73W100%0.0
1-3Southern Utah (322.1)BSkyH90-75W100%0.0
1-8North Dakota (270.6)BSkyA61-63W100%0.0
1-10Northern Colorado (211.9)BSkyA84-73L0%0.0
1-15Idaho (245.4)BSkyH79-76W100%0.0
1-17Eastern Washington (76.1)BSkyH90-77W100%0.0
1-22Idaho St. (334.2)BSkyA59-62W100%0.0
1-24Weber St. (256.9)BSkyA71-78W100%0.0
1-29Montana St. (328.8)BSkyH75-59W100%0.0
1-31Montana (180.9)BSkyH70-69W100%0.0
2-7Portland St. (243.4)BSkyH0-075%7.4
2-12Eastern Washington (76.1)BSkyA0-019%-9.5
2-14Idaho (245.4)BSkyA0-039%-3.2
2-19Northern Colorado (211.9)BSkyH0-063%3.6
2-21North Dakota (270.6)BSkyH0-080%9.1
2-28Portland St. (243.4)BSkyA0-052%0.5
3-5Southern Utah (322.1)BSkyA0-067%4.7
3-7Northern Arizona (203.6)BSkyA0-038%-3.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sacramento St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Sacramento St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Sacramento St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Sacramento St.BSky26.4726.4472.8468.9212.0910.00
Portland St.BSky0.844.7050.0047.130.00-0.27
Southern UtahBSky3.184.6423.5326.21-1.68-2.21
Eastern WashingtonBSky3.284.6276.4776.281.742.43
Northern ArizonaBSky3.054.5847.3750.67-0.160.06
North DakotaBSky3.134.5729.4134.36-1.29-1.43
Northern ColoradoBSky3.134.5747.0652.86-0.180.26
IdahoBSky3.064.5137.5044.66-0.76-0.48
Utah ValleyWAC5.754.0441.1839.84-1.01-0.82
Idaho St.BSky3.482.9215.7922.11-2.38-1.63
Montana St.BSky3.332.8915.7918.48-2.28-1.82
Weber St.BSky3.342.8538.8943.63-0.74-0.36
MontanaBSky3.192.8252.9456.120.190.35
SeattleWAC2.992.1241.1845.64-0.53-0.18
UC RiversideBW2.842.0944.4439.18-0.32-0.45
Cal St. FullertonBW2.842.0233.3332.46-0.95-0.71
PortlandWCC2.822.0247.3747.14-0.15-0.12
UC IrvineBW2.771.9855.5659.260.310.37
GonzagaWCC2.761.9295.2494.682.501.71
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.701.8829.4129.08-1.11-0.79
UC DavisBW0.500.4477.7869.520.280.17
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.210.3530.0038.13-0.08-0.08
Grand CanyonWAC0.410.3447.6248.94-0.02-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.280.3322.7325.26-0.15-0.17
New Mexico St.WAC0.350.3152.3861.790.020.07
San FranciscoWCC0.270.3036.3640.39-0.07-0.06
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.280.2726.3228.59-0.13-0.12
Loyola MarymountWCC0.330.2627.2727.36-0.15-0.12
South Dakota St.Sum0.290.2468.1870.090.110.09
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.280.2342.1149.83-0.04-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.270.2344.4448.13-0.03-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.260.2276.1971.260.140.09
Chicago St.WAC0.210.2110.0014.17-0.17-0.15
UMKCWAC0.210.2133.3338.47-0.07-0.05
Northern KentuckyASun0.230.2035.0039.94-0.07-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.300.2068.4269.350.110.08
HawaiiBW0.140.2061.9057.820.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.140.2047.6253.91-0.010.02
PacificWCC0.260.1935.0030.78-0.08-0.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.150.1735.0037.17-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.190.1668.1868.210.070.06
PepperdineWCC0.190.1661.9060.760.050.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.190.1642.8640.14-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.270.1455.0055.140.030.01
South DakotaSum0.280.1340.9142.86-0.05-0.02
ArizonaP120.270.1390.9188.590.220.10
Washington St.P120.200.1347.6239.12-0.01-0.03
WyomingMWC0.200.1380.0073.740.120.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.210.1363.1661.830.060.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.150.1372.2275.610.060.07
San DiegoWCC0.130.1350.0047.830.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.140.1344.4443.28-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.260.1359.0957.470.050.02
OregonP120.070.1066.6761.490.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.1036.8437.56-0.02-0.03
USCP120.070.1045.0038.92-0.01-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.150.1085.7182.060.100.07
MinnesotaB100.150.1059.0955.340.030.01
WashingtonP120.150.1070.0062.930.060.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1038.8936.88-0.03-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.210.100.001.43-0.21-0.10
CaliforniaP120.150.1057.1447.870.02-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.200.1055.0054.480.020.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.150.1031.8237.46-0.05-0.02
DrakeMVC0.140.1023.8124.55-0.07-0.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.1035.7133.63-0.02-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.1055.0056.280.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.1031.8234.59-0.05-0.03
UNLVMWC0.140.1057.1455.960.020.01
UtahP120.140.1078.9580.300.080.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.1050.0047.440.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.130.1080.9577.890.080.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.1021.0537.92-0.03-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1047.6258.74-0.010.02
Fresno St.MWC0.140.0940.0037.61-0.03-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.140.0776.1971.460.070.03
ColoradoP120.070.0752.3850.450.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.070.003.52-0.07-0.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0731.8229.88-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.070.0721.0524.70-0.04-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0735.2930.55-0.02-0.03
NevadaMWC0.140.0722.2225.27-0.08-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0760.0065.370.010.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0752.6360.480.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0761.5465.360.020.02
IndianaB100.070.0772.7366.680.030.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0754.5546.520.01-0.00
LamarSlnd0.070.0741.1838.51-0.01-0.02
MarquetteBE0.070.0747.6243.52-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0735.0032.55-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.0719.0526.06-0.09-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0790.9187.360.060.05
New MexicoMWC0.140.0666.6763.050.050.02
HamptonMEAC0.070.0638.1038.64-0.02-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0652.3853.270.000.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0666.6764.710.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0659.0962.580.010.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0668.4275.790.020.03
SouthernSWAC0.070.0635.0045.71-0.02-0.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0661.9060.170.020.01
XavierBE0.070.0663.6464.030.020.02
Texas St.SB0.070.0441.1843.77-0.01-0.00
DavidsonA100.070.0372.2273.480.030.02
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0361.9062.150.020.01
LSUSEC0.070.0376.1967.840.040.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0333.3332.33-0.02-0.01
OklahomaB120.070.0366.6768.000.020.01
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0350.0051.680.000.00
BradleyMVC0.070.0327.2726.92-0.03-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.030.003.31-0.07-0.03
DenverSum0.070.0340.9144.93-0.01-0.00
DuquesneA100.070.0331.5828.68-0.03-0.01
Green BayHorz0.070.0375.0075.520.030.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0340.0037.11-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0326.6741.31-0.03-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.070.0380.9581.980.040.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0321.4334.17-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0313.3317.04-0.05-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0343.7551.40-0.010.00
Oregon St.P120.070.0365.0059.830.020.01
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0376.1976.490.040.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0383.3384.640.050.02
TulsaAmer0.070.0380.0073.410.040.02
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0380.9579.380.040.02
FIUCUSA0.070.0344.4445.13-0.01-0.00
KentuckySEC0.070.03100.0098.420.070.03
USC UpstateASun0.070.0365.0066.400.020.01
Wright St.Horz0.070.0345.0046.64-0.01-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0370.0064.270.020.01
MemphisAmer0.060.0361.9061.480.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0345.0042.78-0.01-0.00
St. John'sBE0.060.0365.0059.420.020.01