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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Eastern Washington

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:199.9
Current RPI:65
Expected SOS:296
Current SOS:128
Current Record:5-2
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-6
Current OOC Record:5-2
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:112
Expected OOC SOS:128



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-682.00.06%
22-789.70.29%
21-8103.91.00%
20-9120.73.53%
19-10139.26.83%
18-11158.712.17%
17-12178.817.03%
16-13200.318.60%
15-14221.116.94%
14-15242.212.23%
13-16261.96.86%
12-17279.73.11%
11-18297.00.95%
10-19310.20.30%
9-20315.40.07%
8-21336.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Northwestern (51.2)B10A86-72L0%0.0
11-17Texas (118.9)B12A85-52L0%0.0
11-21Bryant (215.8)NECH81-77W100%0.0
11-22Seattle (263.8)WACH80-76W100%0.0
11-26Denver (246.0)SumH85-80W100%0.0
11-27San Francisco (158.3)WCCH96-90W100%0.0
12-4Seattle (263.8)WACA88-93W100%0.0
12-13Morehead St. (225.6)OVCH0-059%2.7
12-18Northern Kentucky (166.0)HorzA0-030%-6.2
12-20Xavier (15.9)BEA0-02%-23.5
12-22Colorado (74.9)P12A0-07%-17.8
12-30Idaho (228.1)BSkyA0-037%-3.8
1-5Montana St. (176.6)BSkyH0-048%-0.7
1-7Montana (243.3)BSkyH0-055%1.6
1-12Idaho St. (284.4)BSkyA0-052%0.6
1-14Weber St. (208.9)BSkyA0-030%-6.2
1-19Northern Arizona (338.3)BSkyH0-084%12.2
1-21Southern Utah (328.1)BSkyH0-080%10.2
1-26Montana (243.3)BSkyA0-035%-4.7
1-28Montana St. (176.6)BSkyA0-028%-7.0
2-2Sacramento St. (336.3)BSkyH0-084%11.8
2-4Portland St. (281.5)BSkyH0-069%5.9
2-9North Dakota (236.5)BSkyA0-035%-4.6
2-11Northern Colorado (288.0)BSkyA0-051%0.2
2-17Idaho (228.1)BSkyH0-058%2.4
2-23Weber St. (208.9)BSkyH0-050%0.1
2-25Idaho St. (284.4)BSkyH0-072%6.9
3-2Southern Utah (328.1)BSkyA0-063%3.9
3-4Northern Arizona (338.3)BSkyA0-069%5.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern WashingtonBSky29.8026.3776.0056.9315.503.66
IdahoBSky0.004.2950.0052.800.000.24
Weber St.BSky0.514.2716.6748.85-0.34-0.10
Southern UtahBSky0.004.260.0024.36-0.00-2.18
MontanaBSky0.004.2625.0047.63-0.00-0.20
Idaho St.BSky0.004.2512.5028.48-0.00-1.83
Montana St.BSky0.004.2550.0062.400.001.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.004.2012.5023.78-0.00-2.20
SeattleWAC14.293.5425.0042.79-7.14-0.51
Sacramento St.BSky1.022.660.0022.23-1.02-1.48
Northern ColoradoBSky0.002.6116.6738.81-0.00-0.58
Portland St.BSky0.002.6040.0043.90-0.00-0.32
North DakotaBSky0.002.5833.3353.88-0.000.20
ColoradoP121.701.8875.0061.570.850.43
DenverSum7.141.8550.0046.610.00-0.13
San FranciscoWCC7.141.79100.0055.547.140.20
NorthwesternB108.101.7871.4365.043.470.54
TexasB127.591.7850.0036.630.00-0.48
Northern KentuckyHorz0.001.7657.1453.430.000.12
Morehead St.OVC0.001.7516.6738.49-0.00-0.40
XavierBE0.001.7587.5070.000.000.70
BryantNEC7.591.7528.5749.47-3.25-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.510.2966.6757.300.170.04
UC DavisBW0.000.2850.0045.970.00-0.02
Washington St.P120.000.2742.8628.98-0.00-0.11
South DakotaSum0.000.2750.0046.020.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.2642.8660.54-0.000.05
PepperdineWCC0.000.2142.8633.23-0.00-0.07
BYUWCC0.000.2162.5066.900.000.07
San Jose St.MWC0.510.2150.0041.490.00-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1925.0039.59-0.00-0.04
StanfordP120.000.1966.6758.060.000.03
WashingtonP120.000.1857.1452.370.000.01
UtahP120.000.1875.0059.790.000.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1728.5732.62-0.00-0.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1722.2221.23-0.00-0.10
Chicago St.WAC0.000.1620.0022.75-0.00-0.09
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1657.1458.940.000.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1533.3346.38-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB2.150.1516.6729.81-1.43-0.06
Notre DameACC2.080.15100.0077.382.080.08
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1533.3332.35-0.00-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.510.1542.8645.44-0.07-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.1537.5051.64-0.000.00
WyomingMWC0.510.1466.6754.050.170.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1342.8658.58-0.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1375.0070.180.000.05
UMKCWAC0.000.1362.5052.330.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.1250.0054.070.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1250.0050.840.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.1242.8650.06-0.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1250.0046.410.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.1266.6761.330.000.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.1285.7170.060.000.05
San DiegoWCC0.000.1237.5031.23-0.00-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1242.8655.09-0.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.1285.7177.150.000.06
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1285.7174.990.000.06
UC RiversideBW0.000.120.0032.52-0.00-0.04
UNLVMWC0.000.1262.5043.800.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.450.12100.0074.440.450.06
Oral RobertsSum0.000.120.0022.31-0.00-0.06
Texas TechB120.000.1287.5062.040.000.03
OregonP120.000.1175.0072.250.000.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.510.100.0033.85-0.51-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.100.0023.69-0.00-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.450.090.0025.23-0.45-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.000.0962.5051.790.000.00
PacificWCC0.000.0942.8646.14-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0928.5733.77-0.00-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0933.3352.21-0.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.450.09100.0091.920.450.08
LamarSlnd0.510.0950.0041.540.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0933.3352.84-0.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0937.5033.74-0.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.0957.1444.890.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0971.4348.350.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0975.0075.340.000.04
WisconsinB100.000.0977.7876.040.000.05
IllinoisB100.000.0962.5050.710.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0985.7183.660.000.06
USCP120.000.08100.0076.680.000.05
BaylorB120.000.08100.0076.590.000.04
DePaulBE0.450.0866.6735.430.15-0.02
UCFAmer1.190.0785.7176.240.850.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0650.0064.350.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0657.1464.030.000.02
LipscombASun0.000.0612.5033.04-0.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.56-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.040.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0625.0027.53-0.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0640.0054.54-0.000.01
IowaB100.000.0637.5037.74-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0662.5040.460.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0633.3336.74-0.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0657.1450.080.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0642.8638.63-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0089.330.000.05
ArizonaP120.000.0675.0068.370.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0671.4360.540.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0642.8647.11-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0642.8656.04-0.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0628.5742.90-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0671.4356.250.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0628.5731.44-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0625.0038.83-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0612.5037.99-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0021.22-0.00-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.000.0671.4370.210.000.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0642.8651.95-0.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0612.5030.68-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0671.4363.930.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0662.5058.450.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0650.0049.780.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0675.0071.470.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0628.5723.78-0.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0016.68-0.00-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0642.8638.17-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1448.500.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0612.5033.65-0.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0685.7162.220.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0633.3332.92-0.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0616.6739.78-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0671.4355.820.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0611.1148.19-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0625.0022.93-0.00-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0622.2241.71-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0614.2926.74-0.00-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0633.3339.94-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0620.0035.47-0.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0633.3354.47-0.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.630.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.0655.5647.890.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0687.5074.490.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0671.4368.070.000.02
KansasB120.000.0687.5075.860.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0687.5059.310.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0675.0066.410.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0675.0066.460.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0675.0048.500.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0675.0051.040.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0671.4354.310.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0675.0056.590.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0671.4354.560.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0637.5037.03-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0061.680.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0084.840.000.04
Wake ForestACC0.450.0675.0054.490.220.00
RutgersB100.000.0685.7145.370.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0312.5034.79-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0366.6766.340.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0312.5030.39-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3379.850.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0342.8644.71-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0371.4354.860.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0375.0048.030.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0061.240.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0375.0049.180.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0350.0041.990.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.670.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.510.030.0034.27-0.51-0.01
TroySB0.510.0342.8636.19-0.07-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0350.0041.990.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.510.0357.1459.280.070.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0342.8630.92-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0035.95-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0357.1471.520.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0371.4357.970.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.180.000.01
BrownIvy0.450.0355.5646.970.05-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0020.55-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0320.0046.79-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.000.0325.0037.38-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0357.1458.840.000.01
OhioMAC0.450.0383.3371.480.300.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0086.690.000.02
WoffordSC0.000.030.0034.81-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.450.0342.8663.41-0.060.01
AlabamaSEC0.510.0357.1451.790.070.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0385.7166.190.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0387.5082.360.000.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0371.4354.860.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0371.4373.490.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0357.1452.030.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.510.0325.0043.41-0.26-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0357.1454.360.000.00
LehighPat0.000.0342.8666.67-0.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0038.27-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0387.5059.330.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0355.5658.610.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0387.5068.020.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0357.1442.530.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0340.0041.93-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0387.5068.610.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0366.6746.420.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.0350.0059.920.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.510.0362.5067.390.130.01