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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Eastern Washington

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:233.0
Current RPI:233
Expected SOS:327
Current SOS:327
Current Record:15-15
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-6
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:191
Expected OOC SOS:260



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-15233.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Mississippi St. (154.0)SECA106-88L0%0.0
11-18Seattle (287.0)WACH76-70W100%0.0
11-23Seattle (287.0)WACA58-52L0%0.0
11-28Pacific (268.0)WCCN70-63W100%0.0
11-29South Dakota (197.0)SumN71-77L0%0.0
12-1San Francisco (228.0)WCCA77-81W100%0.0
12-9Davidson (64.0)A10A96-86L0%0.0
12-11Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCA84-51L0%0.0
12-14Western Carolina (166.0)SCA97-80L0%0.0
12-20Denver (188.0)SumA58-74W100%0.0
12-31Northern Colorado (304.0)BSkyA96-90L0%0.0
1-2North Dakota (218.0)BSkyA79-71L0%0.0
1-9Idaho (191.0)BSkyH74-60W100%0.0
1-14Southern Utah (336.0)BSkyH106-80W100%0.0
1-16Northern Arizona (333.0)BSkyH96-73W100%0.0
1-21Montana St. (260.0)BSkyA85-71L0%0.0
1-23Montana (145.0)BSkyA74-69L0%0.0
1-28Portland St. (282.0)BSkyH112-83W100%0.0
1-30Sacramento St. (273.0)BSkyH74-67W100%0.0
2-4Northern Arizona (333.0)BSkyA73-84W100%0.0
2-6Southern Utah (336.0)BSkyA67-81W100%0.0
2-11North Dakota (218.0)BSkyH95-85W100%0.0
2-13Northern Colorado (304.0)BSkyH97-80W100%0.0
2-18Sacramento St. (273.0)BSkyA88-93W100%0.0
2-20Portland St. (282.0)BSkyA107-91L0%0.0
2-27Idaho (191.0)BSkyA66-62L0%0.0
3-3Idaho St. (256.0)BSkyH71-75L0%0.0
3-5Weber St. (108.0)BSkyH77-79L0%0.0
3-8Northern Arizona (333.0)BSkyN74-52W100%0.0
3-10Idaho (191.0)BSkyN77-73L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern WashingtonBSky26.5426.5454.7654.762.532.53
IdahoBSky5.905.9060.7160.711.261.26
Northern ArizonaBSky5.735.7312.0012.00-4.36-4.36
Sacramento St.BSky4.274.2744.4444.44-0.47-0.47
North DakotaBSky4.214.2148.1548.15-0.16-0.16
Northern ColoradoBSky4.214.2125.9325.93-2.03-2.03
Southern UtahBSky4.184.1815.3815.38-2.90-2.90
Portland St.BSky4.184.1837.0437.04-1.08-1.08
SeattleWAC3.393.3942.3142.31-0.52-0.52
MontanaBSky2.812.8160.7160.710.600.60
Weber St.BSky2.792.7973.3373.331.301.30
Idaho St.BSky2.702.7046.4346.43-0.19-0.19
Montana St.BSky2.682.6841.3841.38-0.46-0.46
DenverSum1.841.8453.3353.330.120.12
PacificWCC1.781.7824.0024.00-0.93-0.93
South DakotaSum1.781.7837.9337.93-0.43-0.43
San FranciscoWCC1.761.7650.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC1.721.7243.3343.33-0.23-0.23
DavidsonA101.721.7260.0060.000.340.34
PittsburghACC1.721.7263.3363.330.460.46
Western CarolinaSC1.721.7241.3841.38-0.30-0.30
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.510.5172.4172.410.230.23
PortlandWCC0.290.2935.4835.48-0.08-0.08
Utah ValleyWAC0.290.2933.3333.33-0.10-0.10
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.260.2618.5218.52-0.17-0.17
Washington St.P120.260.2626.6726.67-0.12-0.12
UC DavisBW0.260.2632.1432.14-0.09-0.09
North Dakota St.Sum0.250.2558.0658.060.040.04
GonzagaWCC0.240.2478.1278.120.130.13
San Jose St.MWC0.220.2221.4321.43-0.13-0.13
Nebraska OmahaSum0.220.2255.1755.170.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.210.2128.5728.57-0.09-0.09
South Dakota St.Sum0.190.1977.4277.420.100.10
Saint Mary'sWCC0.180.1883.8783.870.120.12
PepperdineWCC0.180.1856.6756.670.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.180.1879.3179.310.100.10
UMKCWAC0.170.1732.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.170.1787.1087.100.130.13
IUPUISum0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.150.1568.7568.750.060.06
San DiegoWCC0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
IPFWSum0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
SamfordSC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
Chicago St.WAC0.120.123.453.45-0.11-0.11
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Boise St.MWC0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
NevadaMWC0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1129.1729.17-0.05-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
SyracuseACC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
UtahP120.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
WashingtonP120.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
UNLVMWC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
CaliforniaP120.090.0969.7069.700.030.03
KansasB120.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Kansas St.B120.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0884.3884.380.060.06
WoffordSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
WyomingMWC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
DuquesneA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
North TexasCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
USCP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
VCUA100.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0622.8622.86-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
UTSACUSA0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
FurmanSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
IllinoisB100.060.0644.1244.12-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
High PointBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CornellIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01