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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Eastern Washington

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:92.0
Current RPI:177
Expected SOS:219
Current SOS:217
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:19-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-3
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:59
Expected OOC SOS:46



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-113.00.01%
26-218.50.02%
25-327.80.23%
24-434.90.97%
23-542.12.82%
22-651.37.41%
21-761.913.11%
20-875.018.33%
19-989.418.96%
18-10106.416.90%
17-11124.610.92%
16-12143.85.96%
15-13164.42.78%
14-14186.91.13%
13-15203.00.29%
12-16231.30.12%
11-17249.50.02%
10-18256.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Texas Southern (260.8)SWACH86-62W100%0.0
11-17Utah Valley (217.6)WACH75-50W100%0.0
11-22SMU (29.6)AmerA77-68L0%0.0
11-24Indiana (67.9)B10A0-024%-8.4
11-26Northern Kentucky (256.4)ASunH0-089%14.7
12-6Seattle (243.0)WACA0-063%4.1
12-11San Francisco (96.1)WCCA0-033%-5.2
12-14Washington (96.8)P12A0-031%-5.8
12-16Sam Houston St. (145.0)SlndA0-048%-0.5
12-19California (45.1)P12A0-018%-11.1
1-1Weber St. (218.1)BSkyH0-080%10.0
1-3Idaho St. (319.4)BSkyH0-094%18.2
1-10Idaho (247.7)BSkyA0-068%5.7
1-15Portland St. (218.0)BSkyA0-065%4.7
1-17Sacramento St. (231.1)BSkyA0-069%6.1
1-22Northern Colorado (218.8)BSkyH0-081%10.6
1-24North Dakota (233.3)BSkyH0-085%12.2
1-31Idaho (247.7)BSkyH0-086%12.9
2-5Montana (208.9)BSkyA0-060%3.1
2-7Montana St. (308.0)BSkyA0-083%11.6
2-12Sacramento St. (231.1)BSkyH0-087%13.2
2-14Portland St. (218.0)BSkyH0-084%11.9
2-19Southern Utah (336.3)BSkyA0-088%14.2
2-21Northern Arizona (185.2)BSkyA0-057%2.2
2-26Montana St. (308.0)BSkyH0-094%18.8
2-28Montana (208.9)BSkyH0-080%10.3
3-5Idaho St. (319.4)BSkyA0-082%11.0
3-7Weber St. (218.1)BSkyA0-059%2.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern WashingtonBSky31.9426.3766.6773.8710.6512.59
IdahoBSky0.004.5650.0049.050.00-0.09
MontanaBSky0.004.520.0049.47-0.00-0.05
Idaho St.BSky0.004.490.0029.59-0.00-1.83
Montana St.BSky0.004.460.0024.42-0.00-2.28
Sacramento St.BSky0.004.4650.0048.190.00-0.16
Weber St.BSky0.004.450.0049.69-0.00-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.004.39100.0052.500.000.22
Southern UtahBSky2.782.740.0019.45-2.78-1.67
Northern ArizonaBSky0.002.7133.3355.13-0.000.28
North DakotaBSky0.002.700.0045.07-0.00-0.27
Northern ColoradoBSky0.002.700.0054.41-0.000.24
Utah ValleyWAC16.672.28100.0051.2716.670.06
SeattleWAC0.002.0233.3349.54-0.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.001.92100.0061.860.000.46
Northern KentuckyASun0.001.9233.3342.14-0.00-0.30
CaliforniaP120.001.9275.0069.420.000.74
WashingtonP120.001.88100.0057.130.000.27
IndianaB104.171.85100.0061.584.170.43
Texas SouthernSWAC16.671.850.0038.46-16.67-0.43
SMUAmer16.671.8433.3367.77-5.560.66
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.001.7966.6768.620.000.67
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.300.0031.63-0.00-0.11
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.2950.0049.760.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.26100.0051.660.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.2533.3327.58-0.00-0.11
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.2333.3349.33-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.22100.0070.850.000.09
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.20100.0030.790.00-0.08
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.2025.0066.02-0.000.06
South DakotaSum2.780.190.0042.57-2.78-0.03
GonzagaWCC2.080.19100.0087.192.080.14
UC DavisBW0.000.17100.0042.650.00-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.1775.0057.480.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.1775.0063.040.000.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1650.0044.170.00-0.02
PacificWCC0.000.1650.0029.910.00-0.07
OregonP120.000.16100.0071.440.000.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1650.0044.810.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.1666.6760.720.000.03
USCP120.000.1650.0027.780.00-0.07
LamarSlnd2.080.150.0034.03-2.08-0.05
UCLAP120.000.15100.0062.510.000.04
BYUWCC0.000.13100.0070.030.000.05
Chicago St.WAC0.000.130.0025.43-0.00-0.07
UC RiversideBW0.000.130.0028.19-0.00-0.06
UMKCWAC0.000.1333.3355.40-0.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.130.0028.76-0.00-0.06
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1375.0057.060.000.02
UtahP120.000.1266.6769.700.000.05
ArizonaP120.000.12100.0069.320.000.05
StanfordP120.000.1275.0071.090.000.05
LSUSEC0.000.1075.0060.550.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.1050.0058.120.000.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1033.3335.92-0.00-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1066.6746.620.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.10100.0062.400.000.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.100.0025.73-0.00-0.05
StetsonASun0.000.100.0032.07-0.00-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1033.3327.10-0.00-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.10100.0071.830.000.04
MinnesotaB100.000.1066.6761.350.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0920.0026.89-0.00-0.04
Oregon St.P120.000.09100.0049.460.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0925.0033.97-0.00-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.090.0039.15-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.09100.0084.890.000.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.090.0063.44-0.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.09100.0056.330.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.090.0025.50-0.00-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0038.72-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.090.0031.92-0.00-0.03
Michigan St.B100.000.0966.6771.600.000.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0018.48-0.00-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0750.0052.920.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0733.3349.42-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.070.0033.98-0.00-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.070.0017.53-0.00-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.070.0019.92-0.00-0.04
DavidsonA100.000.0750.0053.040.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.07100.0072.860.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.070.0025.03-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.070.0042.80-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.070.0033.14-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.070.0047.13-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.07100.0045.990.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.07100.0050.830.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0766.6748.330.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0750.0044.850.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.070.0067.09-0.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.070.0050.76-0.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0750.0063.070.000.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0775.0053.210.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.07100.0051.050.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0733.3332.78-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.070.0055.87-0.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0032.69-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0073.660.000.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0633.3364.19-0.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0650.0037.430.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.0650.0061.440.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0675.0059.530.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0650.0035.040.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0650.0037.760.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0666.6754.240.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6752.320.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0033.75-0.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.06100.0042.120.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0063.820.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.06100.0076.190.000.03
HoustonAmer0.000.06100.0065.060.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0085.630.000.04
MemphisAmer0.000.060.0066.25-0.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.06100.0046.040.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.0650.0053.100.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0666.6753.050.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0046.730.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0033.08-0.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.06100.0064.370.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC2.080.0633.3345.85-0.69-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0041.59-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0633.3336.99-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.06100.0064.500.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0071.340.000.02
PurdueB100.000.06100.0060.550.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0650.0037.560.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0366.6748.850.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0046.61-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3346.93-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0064.090.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0325.0031.12-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0018.27-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0375.0054.790.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0052.260.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0031.61-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.030.0038.59-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0044.91-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0366.6734.100.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0325.0059.16-0.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0034.81-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.17-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0053.00-0.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0034.07-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0350.0033.700.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6765.320.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0067.570.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0375.0075.140.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0325.0035.61-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0025.08-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0333.3340.91-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0072.420.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.03100.0080.630.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3364.76-0.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.030.0033.55-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0325.0051.56-0.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0325.0035.65-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0045.600.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6755.980.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0366.6758.230.000.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0077.070.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6740.400.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0069.300.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0061.850.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6767.200.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0062.070.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0067.100.000.01
IowaB100.000.0350.0065.570.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0078.630.000.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0333.3346.76-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0375.0047.170.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6750.790.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0040.91-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0350.0041.720.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0068.160.000.01
TennesseeSEC2.080.0350.0042.680.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.03100.0081.740.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0032.70-0.00-0.01