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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.


Eastern Washington

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:209.8
Current RPI:228
Expected SOS:241
Current SOS:243
Current Record:9-13
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:5-6
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Probability of Auto Bid:3.41%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-5
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:152
Expected OOC SOS:181



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-13166.81.78%
14-14182.913.17%
13-15199.330.77%
12-16215.933.08%
11-17232.517.26%
10-18249.43.61%
9-19265.60.32%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Gonzaga (28.7)WCCA77-69L0%0.0
11-15South Dakota (281.9)SumH70-61W100%0.0
11-17Oregon (88.4)P12A73-65L0%0.0
11-22Hawaii (186.2)WACA72-89W100%0.0
11-27UC Davis (342.3)BWH79-59W100%0.0
11-30Idaho (167.7)WACA66-73W100%0.0
12-3Washington St. (165.9)P12A75-49L0%0.0
12-11Cal St. Fullerton (167.6)BWA91-76L0%0.0
12-14UCLA (109.3)P12A60-47L0%0.0
12-20St. Mary's (16.9)WCCA77-61L0%0.0
12-28Montana St. (260.8)BSkyA66-82W100%0.0
12-30Montana (99.2)BSkyA79-71L0%0.0
1-5Weber St. (85.4)BSkyH69-76L0%0.0
1-7Northern Arizona (329.0)BSkyH76-59W100%0.0
1-12Sacramento St. (304.4)BSkyA60-65W100%0.0
1-14Northern Colorado (250.5)BSkyA71-70L0%0.0
1-16Seattle (290.1)indA91-78L0%0.0
1-21Portland St. (207.7)BSkyH76-78L0%0.0
1-26Montana (99.2)BSkyH60-74L0%0.0
1-28Montana St. (260.8)BSkyH69-52W100%0.0
2-2Northern Arizona (329.0)BSkyA68-74W100%0.0
2-4Sacramento St. (304.4)BSkyH71-75L0%0.0
2-11Weber St. (85.4)BSkyA0-023%-8.0
2-15Northern Colorado (250.5)BSkyH0-074%7.0
2-18UC Irvine (259.3)BWA0-050%0.1
2-23Idaho St. (263.0)BSkyA0-066%4.4
2-25Portland St. (207.7)BSkyA0-043%-2.0
2-28Idaho St. (263.0)BSkyH0-084%10.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern WashingtonBSky26.6426.4646.0850.00-2.090.00
Portland St.BSky3.264.6840.0043.42-0.65-0.62
Montana St.BSky5.214.6150.0045.190.00-0.44
MontanaBSky5.154.5768.4271.911.902.00
Weber St.BSky3.044.5778.9575.741.762.35
Sacramento St.BSky5.314.5627.7831.82-2.36-1.66
Northern ArizonaBSky5.274.5415.0017.53-3.69-2.95
Idaho St.BSky0.944.5131.8233.58-0.34-1.48
Northern ColoradoBSky3.044.5026.3228.77-1.44-1.91
IdahoWAC2.782.1852.3853.370.130.15
UC DavisBW2.602.180.005.50-2.60-1.94
Seattleind2.542.1117.6530.08-1.65-0.84
UC IrvineBW0.342.0535.0034.70-0.10-0.63
Cal St. FullertonBW2.382.0563.1665.430.630.63
Washington St.P122.592.0447.6246.32-0.12-0.15
HawaiiWAC2.431.9860.0054.980.490.20
UCLAP122.431.9452.3855.290.120.21
OregonP122.431.9468.1863.260.880.51
St. Mary'sWCC2.381.9290.4887.331.931.43
GonzagaWCC2.431.9180.9580.841.501.18
South DakotaSum2.271.7927.7830.02-1.01-0.71
San Jose St.WAC0.450.4327.2726.96-0.20-0.20
PepperdineWCC0.580.3931.8233.75-0.21-0.13
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.550.3747.8347.88-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.330.3650.0056.750.000.05
UtahP120.380.3518.1815.00-0.24-0.25
Loyola MarymountWCC0.260.3559.0957.690.050.05
Utah St.WAC0.290.3350.0052.950.000.02
WyomingMWC0.170.3376.1970.710.090.14
PacificBW0.220.3235.0037.55-0.07-0.08
Oregon St.P120.370.3163.6463.170.100.08
San FranciscoWCC0.380.2956.5253.760.050.02
UC RiversideBW0.330.2942.8639.66-0.05-0.06
Long Beach St.BW0.270.2971.4373.450.120.14
Brigham YoungWCC0.360.2975.0076.020.180.15
Arizona St.P120.370.2930.4331.40-0.14-0.11
North DakotaGWC0.220.2633.3341.30-0.07-0.05
CaliforniaP120.210.2575.0074.620.100.12
ArizonaP120.310.2566.6768.550.100.09
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.170.2321.0522.46-0.10-0.12
San DiegoWCC0.260.2233.3333.82-0.09-0.07
PortlandWCC0.310.2221.7421.75-0.18-0.13
StanfordP120.270.2269.5768.330.110.08
WashingtonP120.220.2269.5766.590.080.07
Utah ValleyGWC0.290.2054.5557.710.030.03
Southern UtahSum0.280.2045.4544.27-0.03-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.160.2069.5769.000.060.07
Fresno St.WAC0.210.1939.1344.46-0.04-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.170.1955.5658.020.020.03
NevadaWAC0.270.1980.9576.420.160.10
Louisiana TechWAC0.160.1942.8643.52-0.02-0.02
DenverSB0.160.1670.8372.240.070.07
New MexicoMWC0.170.1681.8281.020.110.10
OklahomaB120.170.1656.5253.940.020.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.150.1628.5726.31-0.07-0.07
Southern CaliforniaP120.150.1525.0025.08-0.08-0.08
North Dakota St.Sum0.160.1461.9063.520.040.04
Colorado St.MWC0.170.1366.6760.840.060.03
ColoradoP120.150.1266.6762.690.050.03
Longwoodind0.000.1128.5725.79-0.00-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.170.1080.7780.770.110.06
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1062.5061.430.030.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.160.1054.1754.760.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.160.1047.6247.19-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.1042.8641.08-0.01-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.130.0737.5038.36-0.03-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.120.0717.3919.76-0.08-0.04
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.060.0733.3332.18-0.02-0.03
IUPUISum0.060.0734.7835.53-0.02-0.02
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.120.0734.7835.19-0.04-0.02
OaklandSum0.060.0748.0050.28-0.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0773.9175.470.030.04
Western IllinoisSum0.120.0752.6348.320.01-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.0727.7829.77-0.05-0.03
Iowa St.B120.060.0770.8366.500.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0734.7838.43-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0780.0076.670.030.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.0744.4445.20-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0747.6248.48-0.00-0.00
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.000.0776.1975.980.000.04
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0734.7837.27-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.110.0781.8276.800.070.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.0726.3229.85-0.05-0.03
NebraskaB100.110.0750.0044.980.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0619.0519.39-0.03-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.0631.8234.86-0.04-0.02
XavierA100.110.0665.2263.690.030.02
HarvardIvy0.060.0490.4887.910.050.03
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0445.4547.09-0.01-0.00
Texas St.Slnd0.000.0422.2227.56-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0328.5734.11-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.060.0325.0028.48-0.03-0.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.000.0359.0957.270.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0325.0023.73-0.03-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0326.3229.64-0.03-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.000.0385.7182.220.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0382.6180.500.040.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0354.1747.950.00-0.00
BaylorB120.050.0390.9183.900.040.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0336.3640.96-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0347.8345.51-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0318.1823.34-0.03-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.038.3310.90-0.04-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0354.1757.110.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.03100.0094.580.000.03
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0382.6181.430.040.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0314.2916.80-0.04-0.02
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0335.0039.40-0.02-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0341.6740.47-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0347.3742.13-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.050.038.3310.84-0.05-0.02
ButlerHorz0.050.0350.0050.810.000.00
GramblingSWAC0.050.0314.2914.31-0.04-0.02
IllinoisB100.050.0369.5761.840.020.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0377.2773.500.030.01
Notre DameBE0.050.0365.2262.670.020.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0385.7178.110.040.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0340.9142.97-0.01-0.00
KansasB120.050.0378.2678.420.030.02
MichiganB100.050.0369.5766.330.020.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0383.3384.760.030.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0342.1145.89-0.01-0.00
PennsylvaniaIvy0.050.0354.5556.800.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0335.0040.74-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0350.0048.480.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0343.4840.24-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0344.4448.16-0.01-0.00
TexasB120.050.0362.5062.200.010.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0343.4843.27-0.01-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0369.5765.880.020.01