live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 21, 2014.


Eastern Washington

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:55.6
Current RPI:37
Expected SOS:204
Current SOS:55
Current Record:6-4
Expected Record:22-6
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:16-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-2
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:22
Expected OOC SOS:15



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-432.76.45%
23-539.919.14%
22-648.928.37%
21-759.723.86%
20-872.113.87%
19-987.35.97%
18-10103.91.81%
17-11119.10.42%
16-12136.70.09%
15-13145.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Texas Southern (172.2)SWACH86-62W100%0.0
11-17Utah Valley (292.7)WACH75-50W100%0.0
11-22SMU (25.9)AmerA77-68L0%0.0
11-24Indiana (56.9)B10A86-88W100%0.0
11-26Northern Kentucky (213.9)ASunH81-60W100%0.0
12-6Seattle (273.8)WACA75-87W100%0.0
12-11San Francisco (133.4)WCCA76-81W100%0.0
12-14Washington (29.3)P12A81-77L0%0.0
12-16Sam Houston St. (102.8)SlndA76-52L0%0.0
12-19California (49.0)P12A78-67L0%0.0
1-1Weber St. (244.8)BSkyH0-093%16.8
1-3Idaho St. (313.9)BSkyH0-096%20.4
1-10Idaho (199.7)BSkyA0-067%5.2
1-15Portland St. (268.7)BSkyA0-084%11.5
1-17Sacramento St. (287.9)BSkyA0-085%12.2
1-22Northern Colorado (188.3)BSkyH0-087%12.9
1-24North Dakota (268.5)BSkyH0-096%21.0
1-31Idaho (199.7)BSkyH0-088%13.8
2-5Montana (193.2)BSkyA0-067%5.0
2-7Montana St. (302.8)BSkyA0-088%13.9
2-12Sacramento St. (287.9)BSkyH0-096%20.7
2-14Portland St. (268.7)BSkyH0-096%20.1
2-19Southern Utah (310.6)BSkyA0-087%13.3
2-21Northern Arizona (238.4)BSkyA0-074%7.6
2-26Montana St. (302.8)BSkyH0-097%22.5
2-28Montana (193.2)BSkyH0-088%13.6
3-5Idaho St. (313.9)BSkyA0-085%11.9
3-7Weber St. (244.8)BSkyA0-076%8.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern WashingtonBSky27.4626.3671.4382.6711.7717.22
IdahoBSky0.284.5537.5055.48-0.070.50
MontanaBSky0.704.5122.2249.30-0.39-0.06
Idaho St.BSky0.254.4811.1130.96-0.19-1.71
Montana St.BSky0.254.4620.0028.06-0.15-1.96
Sacramento St.BSky0.504.4537.5039.53-0.13-0.93
Weber St.BSky0.254.4537.5046.84-0.06-0.28
Portland St.BSky0.234.3850.0045.460.00-0.40
Southern UtahBSky0.252.7314.2930.99-0.18-1.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.002.7133.3347.29-0.00-0.15
North DakotaBSky0.002.7025.0035.57-0.00-0.78
Northern ColoradoBSky0.002.7037.5058.67-0.000.47
Utah ValleyWAC5.002.2833.3339.89-1.67-0.46
SeattleWAC5.252.0144.4448.80-0.58-0.05
San FranciscoWCC5.001.9250.0054.040.000.16
Northern KentuckyASun5.001.9237.5044.92-1.25-0.19
CaliforniaP125.001.9190.0067.384.000.66
WashingtonP125.251.88100.0074.725.250.93
IndianaB105.481.8590.0065.144.380.56
Texas SouthernSWAC5.451.8522.2255.03-3.030.19
SMUAmer5.481.8470.0075.102.190.93
Sam Houston St.Slnd5.001.7950.0072.940.000.82
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.3016.6733.12-0.00-0.10
Grand CanyonWAC0.230.2936.3645.36-0.06-0.03
PortlandWCC0.000.2670.0050.570.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.2545.4530.45-0.00-0.10
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.2370.0059.860.000.04
WyomingMWC0.450.2280.0073.560.270.10
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.280.2030.0040.39-0.11-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.2033.3361.51-0.000.05
South DakotaSum0.530.1933.3343.01-0.18-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.480.1990.9190.730.390.15
UC DavisBW0.250.1787.5067.460.190.06
Boise St.MWC0.000.1777.7872.900.000.08
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.250.1618.1822.91-0.16-0.09
Utah St.MWC0.250.1654.5548.690.02-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1650.0054.280.000.01
OregonP120.000.1670.0057.400.000.02
USCP120.000.1663.6440.160.00-0.03
PacificWCC0.250.1655.5638.450.03-0.04
LamarSlnd0.700.1514.2936.23-0.50-0.04
ColoradoP120.230.1566.6757.910.080.02
UCLAP120.000.1566.6754.590.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.130.0011.31-0.00-0.10
UC RiversideBW0.000.1350.0042.770.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.1320.0040.46-0.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1314.2914.63-0.00-0.09
BYUWCC0.000.1370.0068.400.000.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1355.5656.250.000.02
ArizonaP120.250.12100.0082.820.250.08
UtahP120.000.1280.0080.490.000.07
StanfordP120.000.1266.6758.210.000.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1036.3637.27-0.00-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.250.1050.0055.090.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.10100.0078.190.000.06
LSUSEC0.280.1080.0063.750.170.03
StetsonASun0.000.1010.0026.86-0.00-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.230.1077.7869.870.130.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.230.1016.6736.42-0.15-0.03
OklahomaB120.250.1070.0062.800.100.02
MinnesotaB100.250.1080.0068.200.150.03
NevadaMWC0.230.0911.1125.40-0.18-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.230.0933.3328.70-0.08-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0925.0023.65-0.00-0.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0962.5057.910.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0918.1837.88-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.280.090.0039.01-0.28-0.02
WisconsinB100.280.0990.9188.760.230.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0928.5761.90-0.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0970.0051.560.000.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0954.5549.050.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.250.090.009.03-0.25-0.07
SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0034.55-0.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.230.090.0026.25-0.23-0.04
Michigan St.B100.250.0966.6766.950.080.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.230.099.0917.38-0.19-0.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0712.5026.95-0.00-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.070.0016.07-0.00-0.04
DavidsonA100.000.0788.8976.830.000.04
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0760.0061.400.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0710.0018.51-0.00-0.04
LipscombASun0.000.0730.0039.53-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0730.0030.65-0.00-0.03
North FloridaASun0.000.0750.0057.910.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0742.8633.60-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0740.0043.53-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0766.6778.090.000.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0733.3334.44-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0744.4448.17-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.280.0766.6750.030.090.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0763.6467.200.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0737.5031.93-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.480.0737.5064.62-0.120.02
San Jose St.MWC0.500.060.006.54-0.50-0.06
ArkansasSEC0.230.0680.0072.430.140.03
DenverSum0.000.0641.6751.30-0.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0672.7361.760.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0663.6461.500.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0637.5035.62-0.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0663.6440.220.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.280.0666.6744.010.09-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0620.0046.45-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0663.6442.700.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0670.0064.920.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0650.0058.340.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0662.5041.050.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0096.240.000.06
MemphisAmer0.000.0660.0061.850.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0666.6755.760.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0654.5557.750.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0644.4436.96-0.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.0663.6456.720.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0056.010.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0655.5635.910.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0640.0041.10-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.480.0627.2735.54-0.22-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0688.8956.070.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.450.0637.5041.68-0.11-0.01
MichiganB100.230.0650.0040.340.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.230.0627.2729.51-0.10-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.250.0654.5559.550.020.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0028.78-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0616.6743.50-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0691.6772.610.000.03
Ohio St.B100.000.0681.8282.150.000.04
PurdueB100.000.0666.6759.240.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0654.5532.610.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.250.0350.0051.190.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.280.0340.0049.35-0.06-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0068.830.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.280.0340.0037.46-0.06-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0011.84-0.00-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0380.0076.780.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0037.510.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0375.0058.740.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0320.0044.35-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0330.0028.63-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.280.0316.6737.43-0.19-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0018.31-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.280.030.0023.75-0.28-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0316.6739.50-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0320.0045.83-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.280.0366.6764.890.090.01
Texas A&MSEC0.280.0370.0061.360.110.01
West VirginiaB120.280.0390.9170.260.230.01
WoffordSC0.280.0377.7875.500.150.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0345.4543.17-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.000.0318.1819.54-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0360.0049.390.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0390.9183.170.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.230.0340.0051.94-0.050.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0333.3338.20-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.230.0380.0073.040.140.01
HawaiiBW0.230.0366.6754.450.080.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.230.0318.1820.68-0.14-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.230.0350.0058.250.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0350.0051.710.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.250.0336.3650.65-0.070.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0354.5548.910.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0370.0052.340.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0350.0071.160.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.250.0372.7372.880.110.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0340.0055.83-0.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.250.0363.6472.270.070.01
XavierBE0.000.0372.7367.750.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0350.0039.580.00-0.01
BaylorB120.250.0390.0073.480.200.01
ButlerBE0.230.0372.7368.580.100.01
FloridaSEC0.250.0363.6464.970.070.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0370.0059.760.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.0375.0065.050.000.01
IowaB100.000.0366.6759.170.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.230.03100.0084.350.230.02
Penn St.B100.000.0391.6755.080.000.00
PittsburghACC0.230.0370.0052.280.090.00
PrincetonIvy0.230.0333.3341.93-0.08-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.230.0318.1827.26-0.14-0.01
SyracuseACC0.230.0360.0057.780.050.00
TennesseeSEC0.250.0355.5646.470.03-0.00
TexasB120.230.0390.9180.170.190.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.230.0320.0034.83-0.14-0.01