Eastern Washington

Conference:	BSky
Expected RPI:	321.0
Current RPI:	321
Expected SOS:	320
Current SOS:	320
Current Record:	10-21
Expected Record:	10-21
Current Conf Record:	7-13
Expected Conf Record:	7-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-13
Current OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC RPI:	312
Expected OOC SOS:	285

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-21	321.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Washington St. (196.0)	P12	A	88-69	L	0%
11-12	Cal St. Northridge (254.0)	BW	A	96-79	L	0%
11-18	St. Mary's (29.0)	WCC	A	85-66	L	0%
11-20	Utah Valley (297.0)	GWC	N	86-83	L	0%
11-21	South Carolina Upstate (225.0)	ASun	N	75-70	W	100%
11-23	Santa Clara (101.0)	WCC	A	89-74	L	0%
11-30	Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)	BW	H	79-75	W	100%
12-6	Idaho (195.0)	WAC	H	79-81	L	0%
12-10	Seattle (303.0)	WAC	H	69-75	L	0%
12-17	UC Davis (234.0)	BW	A	87-65	L	0%
12-20	Weber St. (84.0)	BSky	H	53-74	L	0%
12-22	Idaho St. (337.0)	BSky	H	57-54	W	100%
1-3	Montana (66.0)	BSky	A	81-66	L	0%
1-5	Montana St. (317.0)	BSky	A	70-68	L	0%
1-10	Northern Arizona (255.0)	BSky	H	82-59	W	100%
1-12	Sacramento St. (283.0)	BSky	H	53-60	L	0%
1-17	North Dakota (226.0)	BSky	A	65-47	L	0%
1-19	Northern Colorado (257.0)	BSky	A	72-56	L	0%
1-26	Southern Utah (314.0)	BSky	A	69-55	L	0%
1-28	Portland St. (339.0)	BSky	H	76-65	W	100%
1-31	Montana St. (317.0)	BSky	H	72-68	W	100%
2-2	Montana (66.0)	BSky	H	46-65	L	0%
2-7	Sacramento St. (283.0)	BSky	A	61-55	L	0%
2-9	Northern Arizona (255.0)	BSky	A	74-77	W	100%
2-16	Southern Utah (314.0)	BSky	H	86-72	W	100%
2-18	Portland St. (339.0)	BSky	A	89-80	L	0%
2-23	Sam Houston St. (224.0)	Slnd	H	81-76	W	100%
2-28	Northern Colorado (257.0)	BSky	H	80-88	L	0%
3-2	North Dakota (226.0)	BSky	H	74-78	L	0%
3-7	Idaho St. (337.0)	BSky	A	73-87	W	100%
3-9	Weber St. (84.0)	BSky	A	65-57	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Eastern Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Eastern Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Eastern Washington	BSky	26.41	26.41	30.08	30.08	-10.53	-10.53
Weber St.	BSky	4.43	4.43	78.57	78.57	2.53	2.53
Northern Colorado	BSky	4.37	4.37	33.33	33.33	-1.46	-1.46
Montana	BSky	4.37	4.37	77.78	77.78	2.43	2.43
Northern Arizona	BSky	4.35	4.35	36.67	36.67	-1.16	-1.16
North Dakota	BSky	4.35	4.35	42.86	42.86	-0.62	-0.62
Southern Utah	BSky	4.34	4.34	29.63	29.63	-1.77	-1.77
Idaho St.	BSky	4.31	4.31	18.52	18.52	-2.72	-2.72
Montana St.	BSky	4.31	4.31	38.46	38.46	-1.00	-1.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	4.25	4.25	40.00	40.00	-0.85	-0.85
Portland St.	BSky	4.22	4.22	20.83	20.83	-2.46	-2.46
UC Davis	BW	1.92	1.92	43.33	43.33	-0.26	-0.26
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	1.83	1.83	41.38	41.38	-0.32	-0.32
Idaho	WAC	1.83	1.83	35.71	35.71	-0.52	-0.52
Cal St. Northridge	BW	1.77	1.77	39.29	39.29	-0.38	-0.38
Utah Valley	GWC	1.74	1.74	33.33	33.33	-0.58	-0.58
Seattle	WAC	1.73	1.73	21.43	21.43	-0.99	-0.99
Washington St.	P12	1.73	1.73	38.71	38.71	-0.39	-0.39
Santa Clara	WCC	1.72	1.72	62.07	62.07	0.41	0.41
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	1.67	1.67	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
St. Mary's	WCC	1.67	1.67	80.65	80.65	1.02	1.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	1.66	1.66	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
San Jose St.	WAC	0.34	0.34	28.57	28.57	-0.14	-0.14
Utah St.	WAC	0.33	0.33	66.67	66.67	0.11	0.11
Portland	WCC	0.30	0.30	30.00	30.00	-0.12	-0.12
Cal Poly	BW	0.30	0.30	55.17	55.17	0.03	0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.29	0.29	64.52	64.52	0.08	0.08
UC Riverside	BW	0.28	0.28	14.29	14.29	-0.20	-0.20
San Diego	WCC	0.27	0.27	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Hawaii	BW	0.27	0.27	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.25	0.25	31.03	31.03	-0.09	-0.09
Pepperdine	WCC	0.24	0.24	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.24	0.24	31.25	31.25	-0.09	-0.09
UC Irvine	BW	0.24	0.24	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Pacific	BW	0.24	0.24	62.50	62.50	0.06	0.06
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.23	0.23	38.46	38.46	-0.05	-0.05
Oregon	P12	0.22	0.22	76.47	76.47	0.12	0.12
Gonzaga	WCC	0.21	0.21	93.75	93.75	0.18	0.18
Long Beach St.	BW	0.19	0.19	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.17	0.17	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.17	0.17	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Denver	WAC	0.17	0.17	70.00	70.00	0.07	0.07
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.16	0.16	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
San Francisco	WCC	0.16	0.16	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.14	0.14	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Texas St.	WAC	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Arizona St.	P12	0.14	0.14	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.14	0.14	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.11	0.11	80.65	80.65	0.07	0.07
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Nevada	MWC	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Stanford	P12	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.09	0.09	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.08	0.08	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Campbell	BSth	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Jacksonville	ASun	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	70.37	70.37	0.03	0.03
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	SC	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Texas Christian	B12	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.00	10.00	-0.04	-0.04
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.05	85.19	85.19	0.04	0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Fresno St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00