Eastern Washington

Conference:	BSky
Expected RPI:	209.8
Current RPI:	228
Expected SOS:	241
Current SOS:	243
Current Record:	9-13
Expected Record:	12-16
Current Conf Record:	5-6
Expected Conf Record:	8-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	3.41%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-5
Current OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC RPI:	152
Expected OOC SOS:	181

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-13	166.8	1.78%
14-14	182.9	13.17%
13-15	199.3	30.77%
12-16	215.9	33.08%
11-17	232.5	17.26%
10-18	249.4	3.61%
9-19	265.6	0.32%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Gonzaga (28.7)	WCC	A	77-69	L	0%	0.0
11-15	South Dakota (281.9)	Sum	H	70-61	W	100%	0.0
11-17	Oregon (88.4)	P12	A	73-65	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Hawaii (186.2)	WAC	A	72-89	W	100%	0.0
11-27	UC Davis (342.3)	BW	H	79-59	W	100%	0.0
11-30	Idaho (167.7)	WAC	A	66-73	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Washington St. (165.9)	P12	A	75-49	L	0%	0.0
12-11	Cal St. Fullerton (167.6)	BW	A	91-76	L	0%	0.0
12-14	UCLA (109.3)	P12	A	60-47	L	0%	0.0
12-20	St. Mary's (16.9)	WCC	A	77-61	L	0%	0.0
12-28	Montana St. (260.8)	BSky	A	66-82	W	100%	0.0
12-30	Montana (99.2)	BSky	A	79-71	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Weber St. (85.4)	BSky	H	69-76	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Northern Arizona (329.0)	BSky	H	76-59	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Sacramento St. (304.4)	BSky	A	60-65	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Northern Colorado (250.5)	BSky	A	71-70	L	0%	0.0
1-16	Seattle (290.1)	ind	A	91-78	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Portland St. (207.7)	BSky	H	76-78	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Montana (99.2)	BSky	H	60-74	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Montana St. (260.8)	BSky	H	69-52	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Northern Arizona (329.0)	BSky	A	68-74	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Sacramento St. (304.4)	BSky	H	71-75	L	0%	0.0
2-11	Weber St. (85.4)	BSky	A	0-0		23%	-8.0
2-15	Northern Colorado (250.5)	BSky	H	0-0		74%	7.0
2-18	UC Irvine (259.3)	BW	A	0-0		50%	0.1
2-23	Idaho St. (263.0)	BSky	A	0-0		66%	4.4
2-25	Portland St. (207.7)	BSky	A	0-0		43%	-2.0
2-28	Idaho St. (263.0)	BSky	H	0-0		84%	10.9

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Eastern Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Eastern Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Eastern Washington	BSky	26.64	26.46	46.08	50.00	-2.09	0.00
Portland St.	BSky	3.26	4.68	40.00	43.42	-0.65	-0.62
Montana St.	BSky	5.21	4.61	50.00	45.19	0.00	-0.44
Montana	BSky	5.15	4.57	68.42	71.91	1.90	2.00
Weber St.	BSky	3.04	4.57	78.95	75.74	1.76	2.35
Sacramento St.	BSky	5.31	4.56	27.78	31.82	-2.36	-1.66
Northern Arizona	BSky	5.27	4.54	15.00	17.53	-3.69	-2.95
Idaho St.	BSky	0.94	4.51	31.82	33.58	-0.34	-1.48
Northern Colorado	BSky	3.04	4.50	26.32	28.77	-1.44	-1.91
Idaho	WAC	2.78	2.18	52.38	53.37	0.13	0.15
UC Davis	BW	2.60	2.18	0.00	5.50	-2.60	-1.94
Seattle	ind	2.54	2.11	17.65	30.08	-1.65	-0.84
UC Irvine	BW	0.34	2.05	35.00	34.70	-0.10	-0.63
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	2.38	2.05	63.16	65.43	0.63	0.63
Washington St.	P12	2.59	2.04	47.62	46.32	-0.12	-0.15
Hawaii	WAC	2.43	1.98	60.00	54.98	0.49	0.20
UCLA	P12	2.43	1.94	52.38	55.29	0.12	0.21
Oregon	P12	2.43	1.94	68.18	63.26	0.88	0.51
St. Mary's	WCC	2.38	1.92	90.48	87.33	1.93	1.43
Gonzaga	WCC	2.43	1.91	80.95	80.84	1.50	1.18
South Dakota	Sum	2.27	1.79	27.78	30.02	-1.01	-0.71
San Jose St.	WAC	0.45	0.43	27.27	26.96	-0.20	-0.20
Pepperdine	WCC	0.58	0.39	31.82	33.75	-0.21	-0.13
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.55	0.37	47.83	47.88	-0.02	-0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.33	0.36	50.00	56.75	0.00	0.05
Utah	P12	0.38	0.35	18.18	15.00	-0.24	-0.25
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.26	0.35	59.09	57.69	0.05	0.05
Utah St.	WAC	0.29	0.33	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.17	0.33	76.19	70.71	0.09	0.14
Pacific	BW	0.22	0.32	35.00	37.55	-0.07	-0.08
Oregon St.	P12	0.37	0.31	63.64	63.17	0.10	0.08
San Francisco	WCC	0.38	0.29	56.52	53.76	0.05	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.33	0.29	42.86	39.66	-0.05	-0.06
Long Beach St.	BW	0.27	0.29	71.43	73.45	0.12	0.14
Brigham Young	WCC	0.36	0.29	75.00	76.02	0.18	0.15
Arizona St.	P12	0.37	0.29	30.43	31.40	-0.14	-0.11
North Dakota	GWC	0.22	0.26	33.33	41.30	-0.07	-0.05
California	P12	0.21	0.25	75.00	74.62	0.10	0.12
Arizona	P12	0.31	0.25	66.67	68.55	0.10	0.09
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.17	0.23	21.05	22.46	-0.10	-0.12
San Diego	WCC	0.26	0.22	33.33	33.82	-0.09	-0.07
Portland	WCC	0.31	0.22	21.74	21.75	-0.18	-0.13
Stanford	P12	0.27	0.22	69.57	68.33	0.11	0.08
Washington	P12	0.22	0.22	69.57	66.59	0.08	0.07
Utah Valley	GWC	0.29	0.20	54.55	57.71	0.03	0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.28	0.20	45.45	44.27	-0.03	-0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.16	0.20	69.57	69.00	0.06	0.07
Fresno St.	WAC	0.21	0.19	39.13	44.46	-0.04	-0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.17	0.19	55.56	58.02	0.02	0.03
Nevada	WAC	0.27	0.19	80.95	76.42	0.16	0.10
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.16	0.19	42.86	43.52	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	SB	0.16	0.16	70.83	72.24	0.07	0.07
New Mexico	MWC	0.17	0.16	81.82	81.02	0.11	0.10
Oklahoma	B12	0.17	0.16	56.52	53.94	0.02	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.15	0.16	28.57	26.31	-0.07	-0.07
Southern California	P12	0.15	0.15	25.00	25.08	-0.08	-0.08
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.16	0.14	61.90	63.52	0.04	0.04
Colorado St.	MWC	0.17	0.13	66.67	60.84	0.06	0.03
Colorado	P12	0.15	0.12	66.67	62.69	0.05	0.03
Longwood	ind	0.00	0.11	28.57	25.79	-0.00	-0.05
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.17	0.10	80.77	80.77	0.11	0.06
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.10	62.50	61.43	0.03	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.16	0.10	54.17	54.76	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.16	0.10	47.62	47.19	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.10	42.86	41.08	-0.01	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.13	0.07	37.50	38.36	-0.03	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.12	0.07	17.39	19.76	-0.08	-0.04
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.07	33.33	32.18	-0.02	-0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.06	0.07	34.78	35.53	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.12	0.07	34.78	35.19	-0.04	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.07	48.00	50.28	-0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.07	73.91	75.47	0.03	0.04
Western Illinois	Sum	0.12	0.07	52.63	48.32	0.01	-0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.11	0.07	27.78	29.77	-0.05	-0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.07	70.83	66.50	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.07	34.78	38.43	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.07	80.00	76.67	0.03	0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.11	0.07	44.44	45.20	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.07	47.62	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.00	0.07	76.19	75.98	0.00	0.04
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.07	34.78	37.27	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.11	0.07	81.82	76.80	0.07	0.04
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.10	0.07	26.32	29.85	-0.05	-0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.11	0.07	50.00	44.98	0.00	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.06	19.05	19.39	-0.03	-0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.11	0.06	31.82	34.86	-0.04	-0.02
Xavier	A10	0.11	0.06	65.22	63.69	0.03	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.06	0.04	90.48	87.91	0.05	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.04	45.45	47.09	-0.01	-0.00
Texas St.	Slnd	0.00	0.04	22.22	27.56	-0.00	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.03	28.57	34.11	-0.00	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.03	25.00	28.48	-0.03	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.00	0.03	59.09	57.27	0.00	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.03	25.00	23.73	-0.03	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.03	26.32	29.64	-0.03	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.00	0.03	85.71	82.22	0.00	0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.03	82.61	80.50	0.04	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.03	54.17	47.95	0.00	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.03	90.91	83.90	0.04	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	36.36	40.96	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.03	47.83	45.51	-0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	18.18	23.34	-0.03	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.03	8.33	10.90	-0.04	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	54.17	57.11	0.00	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.00	0.03	100.00	94.58	0.00	0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.03	82.61	81.43	0.04	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	14.29	16.80	-0.04	-0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.03	35.00	39.40	-0.02	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	41.67	40.47	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.03	47.37	42.13	-0.00	-0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.33	10.84	-0.05	-0.02
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.81	0.00	0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.03	14.29	14.31	-0.04	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.03	69.57	61.84	0.02	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.03	77.27	73.50	0.03	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.67	0.02	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	85.71	78.11	0.04	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.97	-0.01	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.03	78.26	78.42	0.03	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.33	0.02	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.03	83.33	84.76	0.03	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.03	42.11	45.89	-0.01	-0.00
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.80	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.03	35.00	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.48	0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.00	0.03	43.48	40.24	-0.00	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.03	44.44	48.16	-0.01	-0.00
Texas	B12	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.20	0.01	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.27	-0.01	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.88	0.02	0.01