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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Eastern Washington

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:228.0
Current RPI:228
Expected SOS:228
Current SOS:228
Current Record:13-16
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-5
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:155
Expected OOC SOS:48



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16228.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Washington (104.0)P12A92-80L0%0.0
11-22Boston University (84.0)PatN80-68W100%0.0
11-23LIU Brooklyn (297.0)NECN70-102W100%0.0
11-24UC Irvine (111.0)BWA81-58L0%0.0
11-29Seattle (267.0)WACH82-75W100%0.0
12-8Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCA93-65L0%0.0
12-15UC Irvine (111.0)BWH61-70L0%0.0
12-22Seton Hall (128.0)BEA92-70L0%0.0
12-28Connecticut (22.0)AmerA82-65L0%0.0
1-2Weber St. (149.0)BSkyA74-67L0%0.0
1-4Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyA83-72L0%0.0
1-9Montana (183.0)BSkyH69-62W100%0.0
1-11Montana St. (275.0)BSkyH77-72W100%0.0
1-16Northern Arizona (247.0)BSkyA84-65L0%0.0
1-18Sacramento St. (263.0)BSkyA75-64L0%0.0
1-23Southern Utah (346.0)BSkyH90-83W100%0.0
1-27Portland St. (252.0)BSkyA92-83L0%0.0
1-30North Dakota (197.0)BSkyH61-73L0%0.0
2-1Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyH94-90W100%0.0
2-6Montana St. (275.0)BSkyA50-79W100%0.0
2-8Montana (183.0)BSkyA82-77L0%0.0
2-13Sacramento St. (263.0)BSkyH85-72W100%0.0
2-15Northern Arizona (247.0)BSkyH84-65W100%0.0
2-22Southern Utah (346.0)BSkyA74-85W100%0.0
2-24Portland St. (252.0)BSkyH76-87L0%0.0
2-27Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyA66-80W100%0.0
3-1North Dakota (197.0)BSkyA69-67L0%0.0
3-6Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyH77-69W100%0.0
3-8Weber St. (149.0)BSkyH78-82L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern WashingtonBSky26.5026.5046.2246.22-2.00-2.00
North DakotaBSky4.724.7244.8344.83-0.49-0.49
Portland St.BSky4.654.6548.1548.15-0.17-0.17
Northern ColoradoBSky4.654.6559.2659.260.860.86
Weber St.BSky4.644.6457.6957.690.710.71
Sacramento St.BSky4.634.6342.3142.31-0.71-0.71
MontanaBSky4.614.6153.8553.850.350.35
Northern ArizonaBSky4.604.6044.8344.83-0.48-0.48
Idaho St.BSky4.554.5532.0032.00-1.64-1.64
Montana St.BSky4.534.5344.4444.44-0.50-0.50
Southern UtahBSky4.524.523.853.85-4.18-4.18
UC IrvineBW3.593.5963.3363.330.960.96
WashingtonP121.961.9651.6151.610.060.06
Boston UniversityPat1.831.8372.7372.730.830.83
LIU BrooklynNEC1.831.8332.1432.14-0.65-0.65
ConnecticutAmer1.781.7875.7675.760.920.92
Seton HallBE1.751.7548.4848.48-0.05-0.05
SeattleWAC1.751.7540.7440.74-0.32-0.32
Saint Mary'sWCC1.721.7264.5264.520.500.50
UC RiversideBW0.430.4327.5927.59-0.19-0.19
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.320.3245.4545.45-0.03-0.03
IdahoWAC0.310.3145.4545.45-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.310.3138.7138.71-0.07-0.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.290.2935.4835.48-0.08-0.08
UC DavisBW0.260.2624.1424.14-0.13-0.13
HawaiiBW0.250.2562.0762.070.060.06
PortlandWCC0.230.2348.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.220.2236.6736.67-0.06-0.06
San FranciscoWCC0.180.1863.3363.330.050.05
CaliforniaP120.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
OregonP120.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
PacificWCC0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.150.1573.5373.530.070.07
UCLAP120.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
Arizona St.P120.140.1465.6265.620.050.05
UtahP120.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.140.1467.8667.860.050.05
Long Beach St.BW0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
WyomingMWC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1246.1546.15-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
BYUWCC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
San DiegoWCC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
LafayettePat0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0987.1087.100.070.07
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
ArizonaP120.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
DrakeMVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0878.5778.570.050.05
USCP120.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
LehighPat0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
ArmyPat0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
LouisvilleAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
Loyola MDPat0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
RutgersAmer0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
Holy CrossPat0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
NavyPat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00