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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Eastern Washington

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:201.4
Current RPI:204
Expected SOS:325
Current SOS:334
Current Record:12-10
Expected Record:16-12
Current Conf Record:8-4
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-7
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:193
Expected OOC SOS:256



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-10158.13.51%
17-11175.217.31%
16-12192.631.61%
15-13210.929.85%
14-14231.114.23%
13-15252.63.27%
12-16272.60.21%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Mississippi St. (162.2)SECA106-88L0%0.0
11-18Seattle (268.7)WACH76-70W100%0.0
11-23Seattle (268.7)WACA58-52L0%0.0
11-28Pacific (253.9)WCCN70-63W100%0.0
11-29South Dakota (181.7)SumN71-77L0%0.0
12-1San Francisco (230.8)WCCA77-81W100%0.0
12-9Davidson (71.1)A10A96-86L0%0.0
12-11Pittsburgh (45.1)ACCA84-51L0%0.0
12-14Western Carolina (223.6)SCA97-80L0%0.0
12-20Denver (209.2)SumA58-74W100%0.0
12-31Northern Colorado (310.7)BSkyA96-90L0%0.0
1-2North Dakota (219.7)BSkyA79-71L0%0.0
1-9Idaho (222.5)BSkyH74-60W100%0.0
1-14Southern Utah (335.8)BSkyH106-80W100%0.0
1-16Northern Arizona (325.6)BSkyH96-73W100%0.0
1-21Montana St. (252.0)BSkyA85-71L0%0.0
1-23Montana (145.3)BSkyA74-69L0%0.0
1-28Portland St. (289.0)BSkyH112-83W100%0.0
1-30Sacramento St. (255.0)BSkyH74-67W100%0.0
2-4Northern Arizona (325.6)BSkyA73-84W100%0.0
2-6Southern Utah (335.8)BSkyA67-81W100%0.0
2-11North Dakota (219.7)BSkyH95-85W100%0.0
2-13Northern Colorado (310.7)BSkyH0-087%12.4
2-18Sacramento St. (255.0)BSkyA0-049%-0.2
2-20Portland St. (289.0)BSkyA0-053%0.9
2-27Idaho (222.5)BSkyA0-045%-1.2
3-3Idaho St. (266.1)BSkyH0-077%8.0
3-5Weber St. (139.2)BSkyH0-043%-1.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern WashingtonBSky26.6026.4462.7962.126.806.41
IdahoBSky3.144.4959.0957.410.570.67
Sacramento St.BSky2.864.4842.1146.79-0.45-0.29
Northern ColoradoBSky2.904.4123.8124.15-1.52-2.28
Northern ArizonaBSky5.074.3510.5313.06-4.01-3.21
Portland St.BSky2.654.3531.5836.94-0.98-1.14
Southern UtahBSky5.084.3515.7916.11-3.48-2.95
North DakotaBSky4.974.3444.4447.97-0.55-0.18
SeattleWAC4.603.6447.3744.61-0.24-0.39
Idaho St.BSky0.762.8047.6248.96-0.04-0.06
Weber St.BSky0.762.8066.6770.220.251.13
MontanaBSky3.142.8057.8961.220.500.63
Montana St.BSky3.102.7740.9142.86-0.56-0.40
DenverSum2.371.9754.1751.060.200.04
PacificWCC2.381.9225.0027.03-1.19-0.88
South DakotaSum2.381.9141.6741.55-0.40-0.32
San FranciscoWCC2.381.8954.5550.970.220.04
Mississippi St.SEC2.321.8540.9141.83-0.42-0.30
PittsburghACC2.381.8571.4366.451.020.61
DavidsonA102.381.8560.0056.620.480.24
Western CarolinaSC2.381.8528.5732.12-1.02-0.66
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.420.4266.6767.670.140.15
Utah ValleyWAC0.310.3333.3334.95-0.10-0.10
PortlandWCC0.270.3338.4638.04-0.06-0.08
North Dakota St.Sum0.360.2960.8759.830.080.06
UC DavisBW0.270.2638.1035.34-0.06-0.08
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.170.2414.2915.44-0.12-0.16
Cal St. FullertonBW0.330.2433.3330.63-0.11-0.09
GonzagaWCC0.320.2379.1777.510.190.13
San Jose St.MWC0.310.2323.8122.86-0.16-0.12
Washington St.P120.210.2334.7831.64-0.07-0.08
Nebraska OmahaSum0.280.2258.3358.580.050.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.170.2082.6181.130.110.13
Saint Mary'sWCC0.270.2081.8281.780.170.13
UMKCWAC0.310.2028.5732.75-0.13-0.07
IUPUISum0.240.1938.4638.50-0.06-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1973.9174.640.070.09
PepperdineWCC0.160.1758.3360.900.030.04
BYUWCC0.210.1668.0070.260.070.07
San DiegoWCC0.200.1630.4328.20-0.08-0.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.200.1633.3332.04-0.07-0.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.150.1631.8230.08-0.06-0.06
Chicago St.WAC0.220.144.357.72-0.20-0.12
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1465.2268.600.030.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.160.1341.6741.18-0.03-0.02
NevadaMWC0.160.1357.1455.360.020.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.160.1386.3684.220.110.09
UC RiversideBW0.150.1345.8341.63-0.01-0.02
SamfordSC0.100.1340.0041.68-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.140.1270.8368.660.060.05
Oral RobertsSum0.140.1241.6742.39-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.140.1231.5832.04-0.05-0.04
WashingtonP120.170.1062.5060.140.040.02
CaliforniaP120.160.1066.6764.780.050.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.160.1045.4551.69-0.010.00
ArizonaP120.160.1079.1778.290.090.06
Boise St.MWC0.170.1060.8760.440.040.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.160.1050.0052.870.000.01
Kansas St.B120.160.1058.3356.290.030.01
KansasB120.110.1082.6179.200.070.06
UtahP120.110.1070.8368.520.050.04
UNLVMWC0.150.1052.1755.070.010.01
MercerSC0.110.1066.6767.110.040.03
DuquesneA100.160.0960.8756.270.030.01
Morehead St.OVC0.160.0952.1753.440.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0960.0057.650.020.01
SyracuseACC0.100.0968.0064.090.040.03
WyomingMWC0.140.0943.4842.54-0.02-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.100.0986.9680.420.070.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.0724.0025.68-0.06-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.0750.0045.770.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.110.0712.0011.95-0.09-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.0720.0022.25-0.06-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.110.0756.0055.450.010.01
UABCUSA0.110.0783.3379.820.070.04
WisconsinB100.110.0762.5057.000.030.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.0730.4332.26-0.04-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.100.0763.6461.550.030.02
Arizona St.P120.060.0754.1751.700.000.00
ButlerBE0.110.0770.8369.000.050.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.0750.0049.320.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.110.0759.0961.280.020.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0752.9452.100.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.0743.4850.64-0.010.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0716.6719.49-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.060.0747.6244.06-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.110.0766.6764.700.040.02
UTSACUSA0.110.0713.0412.96-0.08-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0640.0042.85-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.100.0683.3383.710.070.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.110.0660.8758.900.020.01
ColoradoP120.050.0670.8365.580.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0654.5552.530.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0660.8760.240.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0656.0054.430.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0633.3333.63-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0675.0071.960.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0624.0024.16-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.050.0656.5255.820.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0630.4329.49-0.02-0.03
UMBCAE0.050.0623.0825.87-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.0626.0928.41-0.05-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.0647.6249.28-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.050.0670.8371.050.020.03
VMISC0.100.0619.0519.67-0.06-0.04
WoffordSC0.050.0645.8348.12-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.100.0645.8344.07-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0683.3378.380.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.050.0654.1752.000.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0679.1775.990.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0660.8762.470.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0631.8232.46-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.050.0622.7324.38-0.03-0.03
USCP120.050.0678.2673.130.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.050.0652.0048.920.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.100.0666.6763.300.030.02
Miami FLACC0.100.0682.6177.580.070.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0660.8755.980.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.100.0650.0052.940.000.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0662.5058.940.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0675.0075.340.020.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0356.5257.700.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0369.5770.020.020.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0347.6249.39-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0337.5042.32-0.01-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0372.0071.570.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.64-0.04-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0386.9682.160.040.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.039.0912.26-0.04-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0320.8323.28-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0352.3850.690.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0357.1459.870.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.039.5210.67-0.04-0.03
La SalleA100.050.0319.0520.30-0.03-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0330.0029.13-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0343.4842.40-0.01-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0347.8350.89-0.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0358.3357.250.000.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0327.2728.16-0.02-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0383.3381.280.000.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0334.7832.39-0.02-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0372.7370.410.020.01
UCFAmer0.050.0350.0044.650.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0362.5063.450.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0343.4837.80-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0329.1726.69-0.02-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0356.5257.060.010.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0325.0029.89-0.03-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0358.3358.400.010.01
CornellIvy0.050.0342.1140.24-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0345.4543.87-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.0375.0071.840.000.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0385.0083.440.030.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0365.2260.600.020.01
LipscombASun0.050.0328.0030.49-0.02-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0329.1733.75-0.02-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0325.0027.26-0.02-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0350.0048.950.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0370.8367.930.020.01
PurdueB100.050.0380.0077.910.030.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0336.3636.29-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0383.3378.460.030.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0341.6739.90-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0354.1753.810.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0339.1335.45-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0366.6766.320.020.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0359.0955.160.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0375.0072.610.020.01
LSUSEC0.050.0362.5059.080.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0333.3330.28-0.02-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0337.5037.41-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0325.0033.23-0.02-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0361.9065.330.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0350.0048.130.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0350.0050.500.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.4554.18-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0360.8755.310.010.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0336.0034.84-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0358.3359.970.000.01