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Through games of Feb 26, 2017.


Loyola Marymount

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:141.3
Current RPI:140
Expected SOS:93
Current SOS:96
Current Record:14-14
Expected Record:14-14
Current Conf Record:8-10
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:158
Expected OOC SOS:166



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-14141.3100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola Marymount.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Nevada (40.2)MWCA79-64L0%0.0
11-17Connecticut (100.5)AmerH62-65L0%0.0
11-25Portland St. (261.2)BSkyH78-62W100%0.0
12-5Boise St. (60.3)MWCH79-80L0%0.0
12-8Southern Utah (342.7)BSkyH75-68W100%0.0
12-10Cal St. Northridge (273.0)BWA68-69W100%0.0
12-17Incarnate Word (305.9)SlndH91-90W100%0.0
12-19Colorado St. (72.3)MWCA66-69W100%0.0
12-22UT Arlington (37.1)SBH77-80L0%0.0
12-26Morgan St. (314.5)MEACH70-49W100%0.0
12-29Saint Mary's (16.3)WCCH60-72L0%0.0
12-31BYU (67.4)WCCH76-81L0%0.0
1-5Pepperdine (230.1)WCCA71-70L0%0.0
1-7Santa Clara (144.7)WCCH66-56W100%0.0
1-12Gonzaga (10.1)WCCA93-55L0%0.0
1-14Portland (240.0)WCCA78-79W100%0.0
1-19San Diego (194.9)WCCH62-69L0%0.0
1-21Santa Clara (144.7)WCCA64-63L0%0.0
1-26Pacific (231.1)WCCH79-73W100%0.0
1-28BYU (67.4)WCCA85-77L0%0.0
2-2San Diego (194.9)WCCA53-72W100%0.0
2-4San Francisco (86.3)WCCA74-64L0%0.0
2-9Gonzaga (10.1)WCCH60-90L0%0.0
2-11Portland (240.0)WCCH66-60W100%0.0
2-16Saint Mary's (16.3)WCCA81-48L0%0.0
2-18Pepperdine (230.1)WCCH82-61W100%0.0
2-23San Francisco (86.3)WCCH53-51W100%0.0
2-25Pacific (231.1)WCCA66-67W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola Marymount's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Loyola Marymount's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Loyola Marymount.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Loyola MarymountWCC26.4326.4046.9746.97-1.60-1.60
PortlandWCC4.614.6029.6329.63-1.88-1.87
Saint Mary'sWCC4.604.5988.8988.893.583.57
San FranciscoWCC4.574.5764.2964.291.311.31
PepperdineWCC4.574.5725.9325.93-2.20-2.20
PacificWCC4.574.5732.1432.14-1.63-1.63
BYUWCC4.544.5465.5265.521.411.41
GonzagaWCC4.544.5496.4396.434.214.21
Santa ClaraWCC4.544.5450.0050.000.000.00
San DiegoWCC4.534.5340.7440.74-0.84-0.84
Portland St.BSky2.032.0347.8347.00-0.09-0.12
NevadaMWC1.982.0078.5778.401.131.14
Boise St.MWC1.951.9464.0064.270.550.55
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.921.9141.6742.95-0.32-0.27
Colorado St.MWC1.851.8869.2367.910.710.67
Southern UtahBSky1.861.8511.5412.41-1.43-1.39
UT ArlingtonSB1.851.8576.0075.990.960.96
Morgan St.MEAC1.821.8248.0048.54-0.07-0.05
ConnecticutAmer1.791.7946.1546.41-0.14-0.13
Incarnate WordSlnd1.791.7931.8231.25-0.65-0.67
San Jose St.MWC0.380.4048.0046.19-0.02-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.340.3355.5656.670.040.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.290.3148.0048.50-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.280.2853.5755.070.020.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.260.2525.0025.07-0.13-0.13
Sacramento St.BSky0.260.2536.0035.08-0.07-0.07
Fresno St.MWC0.220.2457.6957.830.030.04
Utah St.MWC0.250.2444.4445.15-0.03-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.200.2228.0030.25-0.09-0.09
UNLVMWC0.230.2234.4833.87-0.07-0.07
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.220.2216.0016.70-0.15-0.14
New MexicoMWC0.230.2255.1754.850.020.02
UCLAP120.220.2289.6690.150.170.17
WyomingMWC0.190.2155.5655.160.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.200.1914.8115.93-0.14-0.13
UC RiversideBW0.190.1924.0023.98-0.10-0.10
Weber St.BSky0.190.1856.0057.060.020.03
USCP120.180.1872.4173.260.080.08
MontanaBSky0.170.1648.2848.65-0.01-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.170.1637.9338.88-0.04-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.130.1666.6767.530.040.05
Air ForceMWC0.130.1533.3332.49-0.04-0.05
Coastal CarolinaSB0.160.1544.4445.74-0.02-0.01
ColoradoP120.150.1553.5753.810.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.150.1576.6776.670.080.08
Nicholls St.Slnd0.140.1340.0038.77-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1362.5062.610.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.1339.1339.73-0.02-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.100.1365.2266.440.030.04
Cal PolyBW0.100.1330.7732.97-0.04-0.04
UC DavisBW0.130.1359.2658.390.020.02
StanfordP120.130.1348.1546.78-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.120.1281.4880.740.080.08
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1257.6957.810.010.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.1225.9326.04-0.04-0.06
South DakotaSum0.120.1265.5265.520.040.04
TroySB0.090.1251.8551.300.000.00
ArizonaP120.120.1286.6786.550.090.09
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.1240.0041.50-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.110.1048.1547.91-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.100.1062.0761.430.030.02
IdahoBSky0.070.1052.0053.420.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.1025.9325.17-0.05-0.05
LamarSlnd0.100.1048.0049.70-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.0919.2322.18-0.06-0.05
HoustonAmer0.100.0971.4370.580.040.04
SMUAmer0.100.0986.2186.520.070.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.0930.7730.93-0.04-0.04
Little RockSB0.100.0942.3141.71-0.01-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0980.7781.310.060.06
North TexasCUSA0.100.0923.0822.49-0.05-0.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0972.0072.040.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.090.001.83-0.09-0.09
Oregon St.P120.090.0913.7913.43-0.07-0.07
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0954.1752.440.010.00
Saint LouisA100.090.0934.4833.33-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.090.0932.1430.72-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0747.8349.16-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0756.0056.310.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0752.0053.480.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0746.4345.93-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.070.0734.4834.12-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.070.0750.0048.750.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0625.0026.00-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0619.2319.72-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0636.0035.98-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0633.3335.14-0.01-0.02
OregonP120.070.0686.2186.570.050.05
WagnerNEC0.070.0651.8551.850.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0624.0025.26-0.04-0.03
BelmontOVC0.060.0680.7780.770.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0651.8550.780.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0686.2185.440.020.04
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0644.8343.04-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0629.6331.85-0.03-0.02
SamfordSC0.060.0653.5752.980.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.070.0642.3142.60-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.070.0625.9325.22-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.060.0664.2963.720.020.02
TempleAmer0.070.0650.0050.990.000.00
Texas St.SB0.070.0656.0054.920.010.01
UABCUSA0.060.0650.0052.300.000.00
UCFAmer0.070.0665.5266.270.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0644.8345.81-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0623.0824.04-0.02-0.03
TowsonCAA0.070.0660.0060.000.010.01
BradleyMVC0.070.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.060.0675.8675.860.030.03
AkronMAC0.060.0678.5778.180.030.03
BryantNEC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.060.0679.3179.350.030.03
Green BayHorz0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0682.7682.760.040.04
Iowa St.B120.060.0667.8666.170.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0648.2847.58-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0617.2420.08-0.04-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.060.0650.0051.170.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
UtahP120.060.0661.5461.950.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0655.1752.800.010.00
Washington St.P120.060.0644.4441.81-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.060.0657.1457.010.010.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0675.0075.780.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.040.0426.6727.00-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.040.0463.3363.330.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0420.8321.37-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.040.0458.3359.230.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.040.0430.4331.29-0.02-0.01
RiceCUSA0.040.0466.6765.550.010.01
Texas TechB120.040.0458.6258.500.010.01
Arizona St.P120.040.0346.6745.71-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0346.1546.13-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.040.0344.8343.89-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0353.5752.890.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0342.8642.02-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0338.4639.38-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0373.3373.330.020.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0340.0041.67-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0318.5220.52-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0049.680.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.1547.90-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0376.0077.290.020.02
Penn St.B100.030.0348.2847.91-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0311.1111.11-0.03-0.02
RutgersB100.030.0342.8642.28-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0344.4445.39-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0375.8673.450.020.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0366.6765.850.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0358.6258.150.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0360.7159.770.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0374.0774.070.020.01
FordhamA100.030.0342.8642.42-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0348.2847.22-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0359.2658.100.010.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0361.5460.990.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0358.6257.980.010.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0375.8674.340.020.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0355.1754.740.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0367.8666.120.010.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0340.0039.27-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.6757.420.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0360.7163.340.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0317.8618.08-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.030.0350.0049.050.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0348.1548.55-0.00-0.00