live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Loyola Marymount

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:263.0
Current RPI:252
Expected SOS:164
Current SOS:163
Current Record:5-13
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:1-7
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-4
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:244
Expected OOC SOS:269



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-15188.30.07%
12-16204.20.43%
11-17220.93.43%
10-18235.211.23%
9-19250.123.37%
8-20265.329.21%
7-21279.921.92%
6-22294.68.76%
5-23307.91.57%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola Marymount.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11UT Arlington (120.5)SBA85-80L0%0.0
11-15UC Riverside (301.1)BWH76-64W100%0.0
11-19McNeese St. (297.6)SlndH92-86W100%0.0
11-22Incarnate Word (338.3)SlndA87-91W100%0.0
11-25Boise St. (39.5)MWCA68-48L0%0.0
12-2Oregon St. (145.3)P12A78-74L0%0.0
12-6Portland St. (122.0)BSkyH85-94L0%0.0
12-9Cal St. Northridge (334.7)BWA57-74W100%0.0
12-17Washington (77.2)P12A80-77L0%0.0
12-22Cal St. Fullerton (161.0)BWH80-88L0%0.0
12-28Saint Mary's (35.0)WCCA87-59L0%0.0
12-30Pacific (176.2)WCCA88-82L0%0.0
1-4Santa Clara (258.5)WCCH49-65L0%0.0
1-6Gonzaga (33.1)WCCH66-85L0%0.0
1-11San Francisco (171.2)WCCH67-65W100%0.0
1-13San Diego (141.9)WCCA75-71L0%0.0
1-18BYU (62.6)WCCA82-67L0%0.0
1-20Portland (257.0)WCCH65-72L0%0.0
1-25Pepperdine (307.4)WCCA0-044%-1.7
1-27San Diego (141.9)WCCH0-035%-4.4
2-1BYU (62.6)WCCH0-015%-11.8
2-3Portland (257.0)WCCA0-045%-1.5
2-8Saint Mary's (35.0)WCCH0-07%-16.6
2-10Pepperdine (307.4)WCCH0-066%4.7
2-15Gonzaga (33.1)WCCA0-01%-27.2
2-17San Francisco (171.2)WCCA0-018%-10.4
2-22Santa Clara (258.5)WCCA0-038%-3.4
2-24Pacific (176.2)WCCH0-048%-0.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola Marymount's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Loyola Marymount's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Loyola Marymount.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Loyola MarymountWCC26.3926.4128.0529.20-11.58-10.98
PortlandWCC3.514.6323.5323.42-1.86-2.46
GonzagaWCC3.394.6180.0082.132.032.96
Saint Mary'sWCC3.294.5890.0088.412.633.52
BYUWCC3.284.5780.0075.091.972.29
PacificWCC3.274.5742.1142.19-0.52-0.71
PepperdineWCC0.644.5710.5316.38-0.50-3.07
Santa ClaraWCC3.274.5629.4129.27-1.35-1.89
San FranciscoWCC3.144.5452.6349.280.17-0.07
San DiegoWCC3.204.5361.1155.680.710.51
UC RiversideBW3.102.0718.7524.78-1.94-1.04
Cal St. FullertonBW3.002.0353.3355.080.200.21
Portland St.BSky3.011.9556.2561.850.380.46
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2.861.9218.7520.05-1.79-1.15
WashingtonP122.841.9068.4260.151.050.39
Incarnate WordSlnd2.941.888.3320.96-2.45-1.09
Boise St.MWC2.851.8577.7876.141.590.97
Oregon St.P122.781.8455.5649.110.31-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB2.841.8457.8960.720.450.40
McNeese St.Slnd2.881.8230.7732.57-1.11-0.64
UC DavisBW0.450.4058.8262.450.080.10
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.310.3870.5969.610.130.15
Long Beach St.BW0.470.3840.0043.34-0.09-0.05
Cal PolyBW0.320.3523.5328.21-0.17-0.15
Sacramento St.BSky0.540.3416.6724.46-0.36-0.17
San Jose St.MWC0.290.2811.7612.81-0.22-0.21
CaliforniaP120.470.2736.8431.12-0.12-0.10
UC IrvineBW0.230.2530.0039.93-0.09-0.05
NevadaMWC0.290.2485.7182.070.210.16
StanfordP120.290.2455.0050.370.030.00
San Diego St.MWC0.310.2258.8262.830.050.06
Utah St.MWC0.290.2145.0045.50-0.03-0.02
Arizona St.P120.210.2178.9576.130.120.11
HawaiiBW0.080.2068.7563.960.030.05
USCP120.310.1971.4368.300.130.07
Idaho St.BSky0.310.1943.7540.93-0.04-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.300.1838.8946.03-0.07-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.150.1856.2557.400.020.03
SeattleWAC0.290.1857.8954.500.050.02
OregonP120.230.1865.0063.830.070.05
Washington St.P120.140.1750.0042.180.00-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.320.1666.6766.010.110.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.1611.1115.30-0.12-0.11
MontanaBSky0.310.1670.5973.140.130.07
Southern UtahBSky0.150.1537.5033.78-0.04-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.220.1530.0036.48-0.09-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.150.1537.5031.76-0.04-0.06
WyomingMWC0.220.1561.1156.830.050.02
ColoradoP120.220.1560.0053.730.040.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.155.8819.37-0.09-0.09
LamarSlnd0.110.1550.0054.850.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.210.1537.5045.22-0.05-0.01
UtahP120.210.1461.1158.950.050.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.180.1443.7549.10-0.02-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.180.1345.0049.27-0.02-0.00
IdahoBSky0.160.1364.7166.850.050.04
North TexasCUSA0.240.1344.4446.64-0.03-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.230.1270.0071.230.090.05
UNLVMWC0.140.1273.6865.280.070.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.1283.3384.230.090.08
Texas St.SB0.070.1257.8950.210.010.00
St. Francis PANEC0.140.1252.9459.250.010.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1221.0544.26-0.08-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.1152.9452.620.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1180.0078.860.060.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.117.6923.280.00-0.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.210.1150.0051.480.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.117.1414.82-0.09-0.08
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1152.9455.040.010.01
ValparaisoMVC0.160.1050.0051.360.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.170.1083.3381.350.110.06
FloridaSEC0.170.0973.6871.550.080.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0958.8257.140.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.150.0966.6755.930.050.01
HarvardIvy0.150.0937.5046.63-0.04-0.01
Little RockSB0.140.0922.2225.26-0.08-0.05
BelmontOVC0.070.0971.4374.650.030.04
North DakotaBSky0.070.0929.4134.76-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.140.0947.3745.87-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.070.0980.0078.980.040.05
UCLAP120.140.0965.0062.040.040.02
AlabamaSEC0.140.0968.4258.990.050.02
CreightonBE0.140.0975.0070.690.070.04
NiagaraMAAC0.140.0957.1453.220.020.01
HoustonAmer0.210.0778.9572.990.120.03
UTEPCUSA0.180.0733.3334.11-0.06-0.02
DePaulBE0.080.0642.1134.32-0.01-0.02
HartfordAE0.080.0652.6346.880.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.080.0650.0047.670.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.080.0680.0075.050.050.03
OklahomaB120.080.0677.7867.900.040.02
Fresno St.MWC0.150.0666.6763.420.050.02
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0645.0041.34-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.070.0645.0048.56-0.01-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0618.7536.76-0.05-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0668.4254.090.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0630.0032.530.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0657.1460.400.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0668.4263.980.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0633.3337.22-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0660.0060.340.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0627.7838.13-0.03-0.01
DuquesneA100.070.0670.0058.100.030.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0666.6765.360.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0666.6765.530.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0626.6729.04-0.03-0.02
RadfordBSth0.070.0661.1160.790.020.01
DaytonA100.070.0647.3750.95-0.000.00
HowardMEAC0.070.0610.5327.31-0.05-0.03
IUPUIHorz0.070.0627.7829.84-0.03-0.02
MassachusettsA100.070.0650.0046.780.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.060.0010.65-0.07-0.05
Ohio St.B100.070.0680.9576.520.040.03
PrincetonIvy0.070.0652.9460.270.000.01
TexasB120.070.0663.1657.620.020.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0650.0055.650.000.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0694.7490.310.060.05
UMKCWAC0.110.0421.0524.71-0.06-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.0443.7554.09-0.010.00
PittsburghACC0.100.0440.0030.87-0.02-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.080.0344.4442.74-0.01-0.00
ButlerBE0.080.0366.6763.070.030.01
DukeACC0.080.0389.4785.190.060.02
George MasonA100.080.0345.0041.35-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.080.0375.0070.270.040.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0329.4139.62-0.03-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0342.1143.50-0.01-0.00
Iowa St.B120.070.0361.1147.260.02-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0377.7871.650.040.01
SMUAmer0.070.0370.0070.630.030.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0327.7831.12-0.03-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0331.5832.72-0.03-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0357.8966.250.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0370.0068.220.030.01
Kent St.MAC0.070.0344.4444.86-0.01-0.00
MaristMAAC0.070.0321.0521.99-0.04-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0347.0652.51-0.000.00
RiceCUSA0.070.0311.1117.69-0.05-0.02
Saint LouisA100.070.0347.3746.91-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.070.0350.0045.900.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0347.3742.18-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.070.0335.2942.76-0.02-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0345.0045.02-0.01-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0338.8935.35-0.02-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0350.0052.440.000.00
KansasB120.070.0384.2179.740.050.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0316.6724.91-0.05-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0325.0028.02-0.03-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0370.0060.460.030.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0368.4257.780.030.00