live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


Loyola Marymount

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:241.8
Current RPI:262
Expected SOS:84
Current SOS:264
Current Record:2-2
Expected Record:7-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-3
Current OOC Record:2-2
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:226
Expected OOC SOS:94



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-1167.00.01%
14-13120.00.03%
13-14119.90.14%
12-15139.40.70%
11-16157.91.91%
10-17177.64.62%
9-18198.39.71%
8-19218.716.77%
7-20239.621.11%
6-21258.720.43%
5-22277.315.03%
4-23294.07.17%
3-24306.12.08%
2-25315.50.28%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola Marymount.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Southeast Missouri St. (260.8)OVCH76-66W100%0.0
11-15Boise St. (82.5)MWCH69-77L0%0.0
11-20Arizona St. (106.1)P12A68-44L0%0.0
11-26UC Riverside (313.5)BWH66-62W100%0.0
11-29UC Irvine (99.2)BWH0-027%-7.5
12-3USC (224.2)P12A0-031%-5.8
12-13Northern Arizona (205.4)BSkyA0-030%-6.5
12-17Stanford (36.9)P12A0-03%-22.3
12-22Wichita St. (19.6)MVCN0-05%-19.4
12-29Pepperdine (138.2)WCCH0-032%-5.6
1-1Pacific (231.9)WCCH0-056%1.7
1-3Saint Mary's (47.5)WCCH0-017%-11.4
1-8San Diego (115.3)WCCA0-013%-13.4
1-10BYU (41.5)WCCA0-05%-20.3
1-15Portland (160.1)WCCH0-039%-3.2
1-17Gonzaga (16.4)WCCH0-05%-20.2
1-22Santa Clara (207.8)WCCA0-024%-8.5
1-24San Francisco (96.2)WCCA0-010%-15.6
1-29Saint Mary's (47.5)WCCA0-06%-18.6
1-31Pacific (231.9)WCCA0-032%-5.5
2-5San Diego (115.3)WCCH0-030%-6.3
2-7BYU (41.5)WCCH0-014%-13.1
2-12Gonzaga (16.4)WCCA0-01%-27.4
2-14Portland (160.1)WCCA0-019%-10.4
2-19San Francisco (96.2)WCCH0-024%-8.4
2-21Santa Clara (207.8)WCCH0-046%-1.3
2-28Pepperdine (138.2)WCCA0-014%-12.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola Marymount's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Loyola Marymount's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Loyola Marymount.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Loyola MarymountWCC31.1526.5037.5022.87-7.79-14.38
Saint Mary'sWCC0.004.88100.0069.940.001.95
San DiegoWCC2.814.8460.0047.990.56-0.19
BYUWCC0.004.8150.0065.910.001.53
PepperdineWCC0.004.8166.6753.310.000.32
PacificWCC0.004.8033.3330.10-0.00-1.91
GonzagaWCC0.004.78100.0087.970.003.63
San FranciscoWCC0.004.7850.0057.670.000.73
PortlandWCC0.004.78100.0049.590.00-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.004.7725.0035.61-0.00-1.37
UC IrvineBW0.002.0633.3365.91-0.000.65
StanfordP120.002.0480.0070.460.000.83
Arizona St.P1212.502.0150.0051.840.000.07
Boise St.MWC12.501.9975.0062.126.250.48
USCP120.001.9450.0028.410.00-0.84
Southeast Missouri St.OVC12.501.9233.3344.94-4.17-0.19
UC RiversideBW12.501.920.0024.72-12.50-0.97
Northern ArizonaBSky0.001.9220.0049.60-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.001.85100.0082.740.001.21
Cal PolyBW0.000.4033.3334.34-0.00-0.13
UCLAP120.000.3266.6758.390.000.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.3040.0037.90-0.00-0.07
UtahP122.080.2875.0073.701.040.13
Fresno St.MWC0.000.270.0023.13-0.00-0.15
San Jose St.MWC0.000.270.0017.77-0.00-0.17
HawaiiBW0.000.2671.4356.020.000.03
Sacramento St.BSky2.080.2650.0045.170.00-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.000.26100.0057.180.000.04
Washington St.P120.000.2625.0022.65-0.00-0.14
ArizonaP120.000.25100.0076.220.000.13
Utah St.MWC0.000.2360.0055.000.000.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.2383.3384.390.000.16
Oregon St.P120.000.2250.0042.750.00-0.03
ColoradoP120.000.2275.0060.510.000.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.2033.3364.43-0.000.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.2033.3337.74-0.00-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.000.2040.0054.55-0.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.20100.0057.930.000.03
UNLVMWC0.000.1975.0051.700.000.01
OregonP120.000.1960.0063.290.000.05
CaliforniaP120.000.1880.0070.550.000.08
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1450.0048.100.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.140.0023.57-0.00-0.07
NortheasternCAA0.000.1480.0067.100.000.05
Murray St.OVC0.000.1333.3367.57-0.000.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1350.0070.920.000.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.130.0033.42-0.00-0.04
UC DavisBW0.000.13100.0052.620.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.1325.0023.91-0.00-0.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1316.6739.60-0.00-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1375.0069.010.000.05
MontanaBSky1.250.1333.3351.33-0.420.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.1325.0052.78-0.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.1125.0043.15-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.1050.0031.400.00-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1033.3348.21-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1040.0047.94-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.000.10100.0078.730.000.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.10100.0057.070.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.1033.3360.46-0.000.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1020.0035.95-0.00-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.000.100.0020.51-0.00-0.06
DenverSum0.000.1050.0060.380.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.1060.0056.430.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.100.0023.72-0.00-0.05
Southern UtahBSky0.000.100.0016.54-0.00-0.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1080.0074.820.000.05
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0725.0026.73-0.00-0.03
Michigan St.B100.000.0780.0074.350.000.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0766.6746.480.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0720.0039.02-0.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.070.0035.88-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0019.02-0.00-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0750.0064.460.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0760.0040.420.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0750.0042.050.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.070.0035.74-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.07100.0077.870.000.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0766.6741.200.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0775.0053.040.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.070.0030.50-0.00-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0733.3345.53-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.07100.0069.610.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0061.500.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0725.0045.04-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0766.6765.220.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0740.0030.22-0.00-0.03
RichmondA100.000.0750.0063.970.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0040.20-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.07100.0056.410.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0775.0056.110.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0750.0037.530.00-0.02
IdahoBSky1.250.0633.3348.86-0.42-0.00
AlabamaSEC1.250.0680.0058.550.750.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0660.0059.160.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0666.6751.540.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0625.0049.53-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0680.0072.320.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0660.0056.890.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0683.3366.830.000.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3351.25-0.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.060.0051.90-0.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0683.3368.400.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0036.580.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0065.590.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0036.81-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0041.21-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0032.17-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0079.690.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0380.0075.550.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC1.560.03100.0059.991.560.01
Central ArkansasSlnd1.560.030.0022.17-1.56-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0325.0031.20-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0340.0036.39-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0333.3358.80-0.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0375.0046.860.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0063.120.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0025.08-0.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0055.660.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0360.0053.140.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0320.0038.45-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0340.0046.34-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0366.6760.700.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0064.840.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0350.0047.680.00-0.00
WisconsinB101.250.03100.0087.591.250.02
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0069.490.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0316.6745.35-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0366.6750.170.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0325.0047.85-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0035.47-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0340.0060.45-0.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3330.52-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0066.680.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0316.6732.00-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.03100.0069.590.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0340.0038.03-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0069.780.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0019.53-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0366.6725.500.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0320.0036.57-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0083.320.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0383.3348.340.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.030.0038.79-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.03100.0079.050.000.02
VermontAE0.000.0350.0064.890.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0380.0077.100.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.250.0320.0031.24-0.75-0.01
Chicago St.WAC1.250.030.0018.96-1.25-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0039.05-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0366.6773.130.000.01
LehighPat0.000.0320.0041.82-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0360.0039.990.00-0.01
MarylandB101.250.03100.0071.311.250.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0068.660.000.01