Loyola Marymount

Conference:	WCC
Expected RPI:	118.0
Current RPI:	118
Expected SOS:	115
Current SOS:	115
Current Record:	17-12
Expected Record:	17-12
Current Conf Record:	11-6
Expected Conf Record:	11-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-1
Current OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC RPI:	160
Expected OOC SOS:	123

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-12	118.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola Marymount.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	UCLA (117.0)	P12	A	58-69	W	100%
11-13	Middle Tennessee (56.0)	SB	H	51-58	L	0%
11-19	Harvard (35.0)	Ivy	H	67-77	L	0%
11-23	Idaho St. (290.0)	BSky	A	76-79	W	100%
11-26	Northern Arizona (337.0)	BSky	H	81-61	W	100%
11-29	St. Louis (31.0)	A10	H	75-68	W	100%
12-2	Columbia (186.0)	Ivy	H	61-69	L	0%
12-4	North Texas (200.0)	SB	H	63-76	L	0%
12-10	Idaho St. (290.0)	BSky	H	80-72	W	100%
12-18	Florida St. (11.0)	ACC	A	77-61	L	0%
12-21	Morgan St. (286.0)	MEAC	A	69-45	L	0%
12-31	San Francisco (136.0)	WCC	A	76-77	W	100%
1-5	Brigham Young (46.0)	WCC	H	65-73	L	0%
1-7	San Diego (192.0)	WCC	A	68-79	W	100%
1-12	Pepperdine (271.0)	WCC	A	58-68	W	100%
1-14	Gonzaga (25.0)	WCC	H	58-62	L	0%
1-19	Brigham Young (46.0)	WCC	A	68-82	W	100%
1-23	Santa Clara (303.0)	WCC	A	62-74	W	100%
1-26	St. Mary's (28.0)	WCC	H	64-71	L	0%
1-28	Portland (238.0)	WCC	H	62-59	W	100%
2-2	Pepperdine (271.0)	WCC	H	67-57	W	100%
2-4	San Francisco (136.0)	WCC	H	90-88	W	100%
2-9	Portland (238.0)	WCC	A	62-76	W	100%
2-11	Gonzaga (25.0)	WCC	A	78-59	L	0%
2-15	St. Mary's (28.0)	WCC	A	60-75	W	100%
2-17	Valparaiso (95.0)	Horz	H	61-53	W	100%
2-23	San Diego (192.0)	WCC	H	57-60	L	0%
2-25	Santa Clara (303.0)	WCC	H	68-65	W	100%
3-2	San Francisco (136.0)	WCC	N	60-67	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola Marymount's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Loyola Marymount's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Loyola Marymount.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Loyola Marymount	WCC	26.48	26.48	55.41	55.41	2.87	2.87
San Francisco	WCC	6.17	6.17	60.71	60.71	1.32	1.32
Portland	WCC	4.49	4.49	21.43	21.43	-2.57	-2.57
Brigham Young	WCC	4.47	4.47	75.86	75.86	2.31	2.31
St. Mary's	WCC	4.46	4.46	85.71	85.71	3.18	3.18
Gonzaga	WCC	4.43	4.43	79.31	79.31	2.60	2.60
San Diego	WCC	4.43	4.43	37.04	37.04	-1.15	-1.15
Pepperdine	WCC	4.43	4.43	34.62	34.62	-1.36	-1.36
Santa Clara	WCC	4.37	4.37	23.08	23.08	-2.35	-2.35
Idaho St.	BSky	3.51	3.51	29.63	29.63	-1.43	-1.43
Northern Arizona	BSky	2.04	2.04	11.54	11.54	-1.57	-1.57
UCLA	P12	1.81	1.81	58.06	58.06	0.29	0.29
Columbia	Ivy	1.81	1.81	44.44	44.44	-0.20	-0.20
Harvard	Ivy	1.81	1.81	85.71	85.71	1.29	1.29
Morgan St.	MEAC	1.81	1.81	28.57	28.57	-0.77	-0.77
North Texas	SB	1.78	1.78	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Louis	A10	1.78	1.78	80.00	80.00	1.07	1.07
Middle Tennessee	SB	1.78	1.78	79.31	79.31	1.04	1.04
Florida St.	ACC	1.75	1.75	71.88	71.88	0.77	0.77
Valparaiso	Horz	1.72	1.72	66.67	66.67	0.57	0.57
Montana	BSky	0.38	0.38	79.31	79.31	0.22	0.22
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.38	0.38	43.33	43.33	-0.05	-0.05
Weber St.	BSky	0.30	0.30	78.57	78.57	0.17	0.17
Washington St.	P12	0.29	0.29	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.24	0.24	37.04	37.04	-0.06	-0.06
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.23	0.23	64.29	64.29	0.07	0.07
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.23	0.23	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.23	0.23	16.67	16.67	-0.15	-0.15
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.20	0.20	13.79	13.79	-0.15	-0.15
Pacific	BW	0.20	0.20	32.14	32.14	-0.07	-0.07
Arizona	P12	0.20	0.20	67.65	67.65	0.07	0.07
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.18	0.18	30.77	30.77	-0.07	-0.07
Portland St.	BSky	0.18	0.18	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.18	0.18	30.77	30.77	-0.07	-0.07
Seattle	ind	0.17	0.17	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas St.	SB	0.17	0.17	39.39	39.39	-0.04	-0.04
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.17	0.17	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
South Alabama	SB	0.17	0.17	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.17	0.17	96.43	96.43	0.16	0.16
Xavier	A10	0.17	0.17	63.64	63.64	0.05	0.05
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.15	0.15	48.15	48.15	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.15	0.15	81.25	81.25	0.09	0.09
Oklahoma	B12	0.15	0.15	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.15	0.15	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.15	0.15	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Princeton	Ivy	0.15	0.15	60.71	60.71	0.03	0.03
Denver	SB	0.15	0.15	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
San Jose St.	WAC	0.15	0.15	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
Holy Cross	Pat	0.14	0.14	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Washington	P12	0.14	0.14	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
Butler	Horz	0.14	0.14	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.12	0.12	19.23	19.23	-0.08	-0.08
Brown	Ivy	0.12	0.12	23.33	23.33	-0.06	-0.06
Cornell	Ivy	0.12	0.12	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.12	0.12	65.38	65.38	0.04	0.04
North Dakota	GWC	0.12	0.12	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.12	0.12	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
Hawaii	WAC	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.12	0.12	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Baylor	B12	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Nevada	WAC	0.11	0.11	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
Longwood	ind	0.11	0.11	22.22	22.22	-0.06	-0.06
Southern California	P12	0.11	0.11	18.75	18.75	-0.07	-0.07
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.09	0.09	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.09	0.09	10.71	10.71	-0.07	-0.07
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Florida International	SB	0.09	0.09	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Troy	SB	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Connecticut	BE	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Oregon	P12	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.93	25.93	-0.03	-0.03
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Maine	AE	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Fordham	A10	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Vermont	AE	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	ASun	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	94.12	94.12	0.05	0.05
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	64.29	64.29	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
La Salle	A10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00