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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Loyola Marymount

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:179.0
Current RPI:179
Expected SOS:111
Current SOS:111
Current Record:12-19
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:5-15
Expected Conf Record:5-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:109
Expected OOC SOS:225



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-19179.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola Marymount.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Grand Canyon (203.0)WACN78-75W100%0.0
11-9South Dakota St. (138.0)SumN98-89W100%0.0
11-14Long Beach St. (166.0)BWA73-74W100%0.0
11-17Northern Arizona (247.0)BSkyH90-78W100%0.0
11-22Northern Iowa (109.0)MVCN81-90L0%0.0
11-23Marist (250.0)MAACN70-76W100%0.0
11-25Vanderbilt (120.0)SECN77-68L0%0.0
12-2UC Riverside (319.0)BWA69-73W100%0.0
12-6Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCA85-68L0%0.0
12-14Valparaiso (184.0)HorzA80-73L0%0.0
12-17Cal Poly (208.0)BWH79-59W100%0.0
12-28BYU (31.0)WCCH87-76W100%0.0
12-30San Diego (156.0)WCCH65-62W100%0.0
1-2San Francisco (68.0)WCCA75-61L0%0.0
1-4Santa Clara (210.0)WCCA86-81L0%0.0
1-9San Diego (156.0)WCCA74-67L0%0.0
1-11BYU (31.0)WCCA91-68L0%0.0
1-16Portland (178.0)WCCH57-71L0%0.0
1-18Gonzaga (20.0)WCCH72-82L0%0.0
1-23Pacific (133.0)WCCA81-92W100%0.0
1-25Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCA89-61L0%0.0
2-1Pepperdine (159.0)WCCA80-69L0%0.0
2-6Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCH58-77L0%0.0
2-8Pacific (133.0)WCCH72-82L0%0.0
2-13Portland (178.0)WCCA71-64L0%0.0
2-15Gonzaga (20.0)WCCA86-67L0%0.0
2-20Pepperdine (159.0)WCCH69-72L0%0.0
2-27Santa Clara (210.0)WCCH75-71W100%0.0
3-1San Francisco (68.0)WCCH61-65L0%0.0
3-6Portland (178.0)WCCN64-67W100%0.0
3-8BYU (31.0)WCCN85-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola Marymount's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Loyola Marymount's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Loyola Marymount.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Loyola MarymountWCC26.4926.4939.1639.16-5.74-5.74
BYUWCC5.835.8366.6766.671.941.94
PortlandWCC5.725.7246.4346.43-0.41-0.41
GonzagaWCC4.344.3480.6580.652.662.66
Santa ClaraWCC4.294.2937.9337.93-1.04-1.04
San FranciscoWCC4.284.2860.7160.710.920.92
San DiegoWCC4.274.2746.4346.43-0.31-0.31
Saint Mary'sWCC4.274.2763.3363.331.141.14
PepperdineWCC4.244.2442.8642.86-0.61-0.61
PacificWCC4.234.2348.1548.15-0.16-0.16
Cal PolyBW1.851.8537.9337.93-0.45-0.45
UC RiversideBW1.771.7728.5728.57-0.76-0.76
Long Beach St.BW1.721.7244.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Grand CanyonWAC1.691.6948.0048.00-0.07-0.07
South Dakota St.Sum1.671.6759.2659.260.310.31
Northern ArizonaBSky1.641.6446.6746.67-0.11-0.11
PittsburghACC1.641.6472.7372.730.750.75
MaristMAAC1.611.6140.0040.00-0.32-0.32
Northern IowaMVC1.611.6148.2848.28-0.06-0.06
ValparaisoHorz1.611.6148.2848.28-0.06-0.06
VanderbiltSEC1.611.6146.6746.67-0.11-0.11
UC IrvineBW0.330.3365.6265.620.100.10
Cal St. FullertonBW0.300.3035.4835.48-0.09-0.09
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.270.2767.8667.860.100.10
UC DavisBW0.240.2424.1424.14-0.12-0.12
HawaiiBW0.240.2462.0762.070.060.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.220.2245.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.210.213.573.57-0.20-0.20
OregonP120.210.2171.8871.880.090.09
BradleyMVC0.190.1937.5037.50-0.05-0.05
San Jose St.MWC0.180.1817.2417.24-0.12-0.12
North TexasCUSA0.180.1844.8344.83-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.160.1613.7913.79-0.12-0.12
North Dakota St.Sum0.160.1678.5778.570.090.09
Montana St.BSky0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.140.1425.9325.93-0.07-0.07
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
IdahoWAC0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.130.1353.5753.570.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1340.6240.62-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.130.1370.3770.370.050.05
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.130.13100.00100.000.130.13
Weber St.BSky0.130.1360.7160.710.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
DenverSum0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Green BayHorz0.110.1177.7877.780.060.06
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
AmericanPat0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Kansas St.B120.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
OaklandHorz0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Iowa St.B120.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
TexasB120.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
UMKCWAC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
IonaMAAC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
MissouriSEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Texas TechB120.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Michigan St.B100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0821.2121.21-0.04-0.04
Oregon St.P120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.080.0859.2659.260.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
VirginiaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
MassachusettsA100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
VermontAE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
DelawareCAA0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
DukeACC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Penn St.B100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01