Loyola Marymount

Conference:	WCC
Expected RPI:	211.0
Current RPI:	211
Expected SOS:	111
Current SOS:	111
Current Record:	10-22
Expected Record:	10-22
Current Conf Record:	4-16
Expected Conf Record:	4-16
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-5
Current OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC RPI:	182
Expected OOC SOS:	213

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-22	211.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola Marymount.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Southern Methodist (219.0)	CUSA	A	73-58	L	0%
11-17	Cal St. Bakersfield (235.0)	ind	A	73-76	W	100%
11-22	Oral Roberts (151.0)	Slnd	N	66-75	L	0%
11-23	Texas St. (272.0)	WAC	N	63-78	W	100%
11-29	Long Beach St. (115.0)	BW	H	70-73	L	0%
12-1	Portland St. (339.0)	BSky	H	66-56	W	100%
12-5	Northern Arizona (255.0)	BSky	A	86-92	W	100%
12-19	Mississippi (47.0)	SEC	H	70-73	L	0%
12-22	St. Louis (15.0)	A10	A	65-44	L	0%
12-27	Morgan St. (236.0)	MEAC	H	79-62	W	100%
12-29	Cal St. Bakersfield (235.0)	ind	H	73-66	W	100%
1-3	Brigham Young (69.0)	WCC	A	92-51	L	0%
1-5	St. Mary's (29.0)	WCC	A	74-61	L	0%
1-10	Santa Clara (101.0)	WCC	H	84-80	W	100%
1-12	Portland (231.0)	WCC	H	64-68	L	0%
1-16	San Diego (165.0)	WCC	A	78-70	L	0%
1-19	San Francisco (167.0)	WCC	A	62-53	L	0%
1-24	Pepperdine (212.0)	WCC	H	57-60	L	0%
1-31	Gonzaga (6.0)	WCC	H	43-88	L	0%
2-4	San Diego (165.0)	WCC	H	68-69	L	0%
2-7	Portland (231.0)	WCC	A	69-60	L	0%
2-9	Gonzaga (6.0)	WCC	A	74-55	L	0%
2-14	Pepperdine (212.0)	WCC	A	52-50	L	0%
2-16	St. Mary's (29.0)	WCC	H	50-61	L	0%
2-21	San Francisco (167.0)	WCC	H	59-61	L	0%
2-23	Cal Poly (164.0)	BW	A	63-60	L	0%
2-28	Santa Clara (101.0)	WCC	A	79-56	L	0%
3-2	Brigham Young (69.0)	WCC	H	70-73	L	0%
3-6	Portland (231.0)	WCC	N	54-65	W	100%
3-7	San Francisco (167.0)	WCC	N	60-61	W	100%
3-8	Santa Clara (101.0)	WCC	N	58-60	W	100%
3-9	Gonzaga (6.0)	WCC	N	66-48	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola Marymount's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Loyola Marymount's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Loyola Marymount.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Loyola Marymount	WCC	26.71	26.71	30.26	30.26	-10.54	-10.54
Santa Clara	WCC	5.67	5.67	66.67	66.67	1.89	1.89
Portland	WCC	5.65	5.65	25.93	25.93	-2.72	-2.72
Gonzaga	WCC	5.61	5.61	93.10	93.10	4.84	4.84
San Francisco	WCC	5.57	5.57	42.31	42.31	-0.86	-0.86
San Diego	WCC	4.23	4.23	40.00	40.00	-0.85	-0.85
St. Mary's	WCC	4.20	4.20	80.00	80.00	2.52	2.52
Brigham Young	WCC	4.12	4.12	62.07	62.07	0.99	0.99
Pepperdine	WCC	4.09	4.09	33.33	33.33	-1.36	-1.36
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	3.28	3.28	41.67	41.67	-0.55	-0.55
Cal Poly	BW	1.74	1.74	53.57	53.57	0.12	0.12
Portland St.	BSky	1.69	1.69	24.00	24.00	-0.88	-0.88
Northern Arizona	BSky	1.67	1.67	35.48	35.48	-0.49	-0.49
Mississippi	SEC	1.64	1.64	75.76	75.76	0.85	0.85
St. Louis	A10	1.64	1.64	81.25	81.25	1.03	1.03
Long Beach St.	BW	1.62	1.62	55.17	55.17	0.17	0.17
Texas St.	WAC	1.61	1.61	34.38	34.38	-0.50	-0.50
Morgan St.	MEAC	1.61	1.61	54.84	54.84	0.16	0.16
Oral Roberts	Slnd	1.59	1.59	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Southern Methodist	CUSA	1.59	1.59	43.33	43.33	-0.21	-0.21
Pacific	BW	0.49	0.49	62.50	62.50	0.12	0.12
Montana	BSky	0.29	0.29	79.31	79.31	0.17	0.17
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.26	0.26	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.25	0.25	40.00	40.00	-0.05	-0.05
Utah Valley	GWC	0.25	0.25	35.71	35.71	-0.07	-0.07
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.24	0.24	31.25	31.25	-0.09	-0.09
Montana St.	BSky	0.24	0.24	39.29	39.29	-0.05	-0.05
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.24	0.24	32.26	32.26	-0.08	-0.08
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.23	0.23	31.03	31.03	-0.09	-0.09
Southern Utah	BSky	0.23	0.23	31.03	31.03	-0.09	-0.09
Utah St.	WAC	0.22	0.22	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
UC Riverside	BW	0.21	0.21	14.29	14.29	-0.15	-0.15
Weber St.	BSky	0.21	0.21	80.00	80.00	0.13	0.13
Hawaii	BW	0.21	0.21	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.21	0.21	40.62	40.62	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.19	0.19	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Idaho St.	BSky	0.19	0.19	17.24	17.24	-0.12	-0.12
UC Irvine	BW	0.19	0.19	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.16	0.16	72.73	72.73	0.07	0.07
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.16	0.16	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.15	0.15	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.15	0.15	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Butler	A10	0.14	0.14	75.76	75.76	0.07	0.07
Colorado St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	74.19	74.19	0.07	0.07
North Florida	ASun	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Seattle	WAC	0.13	0.13	24.14	24.14	-0.07	-0.07
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.13	0.13	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.13	0.13	85.19	85.19	0.09	0.09
Utah	P12	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
California	P12	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.11	0.11	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	28.12	28.12	-0.05	-0.05
Wagner	NEC	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
New Mexico	MWC	0.10	0.10	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.10	0.10	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Campbell	BSth	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
American	Pat	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Columbia	Ivy	0.08	0.08	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona	P12	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.07	0.07	9.68	9.68	-0.06	-0.06
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Illinois	B10	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
South Dakota	Sum	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Denver	WAC	0.07	0.07	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Fordham	A10	0.07	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Texas A&M	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Texas Christian	B12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.04	-0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.03	-0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.02	0.02	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.02	0.02	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	A10	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.02	0.02	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.02	0.02	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00