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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Loyola Marymount

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:166.7
Current RPI:275
Expected SOS:97
Current SOS:216
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:13-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:1-2
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:219
Expected OOC SOS:220



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-632.00.01%
21-742.50.02%
20-848.10.09%
19-963.10.41%
18-1078.91.32%
17-1193.93.31%
16-12110.47.30%
15-13127.711.96%
14-14146.216.36%
13-15165.918.29%
12-16185.116.13%
11-17205.612.36%
10-18224.87.30%
9-19244.03.44%
8-20263.11.21%
7-21276.30.38%
6-22291.90.07%
5-23304.50.02%
4-24308.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola Marymount.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Nevada (46.4)MWCA79-64L0%0.0
11-17Connecticut (139.2)AmerH62-65L0%0.0
11-25Portland St. (281.5)BSkyH78-62W100%0.0
12-5Boise St. (113.1)MWCH0-045%-1.6
12-8Southern Utah (328.1)BSkyH0-089%15.0
12-10Cal St. Northridge (259.5)BWA0-056%1.7
12-17Incarnate Word (222.9)SlndH0-077%8.8
12-19Colorado St. (95.8)MWCA0-027%-7.5
12-22UT Arlington (67.2)SBH0-044%-1.8
12-26Morgan St. (329.9)MEACH0-091%15.8
12-29Saint Mary's (15.8)WCCH0-015%-12.6
12-31BYU (74.9)WCCH0-033%-5.2
1-5Pepperdine (195.3)WCCA0-053%0.8
1-7Santa Clara (247.7)WCCH0-073%7.4
1-12Gonzaga (10.2)WCCA0-04%-21.4
1-14Portland (123.5)WCCA0-032%-5.6
1-19San Diego (236.9)WCCH0-080%9.9
1-21Santa Clara (247.7)WCCA0-054%1.1
1-26Pacific (171.2)WCCH0-062%3.7
1-28BYU (74.9)WCCA0-017%-11.4
2-2San Diego (236.9)WCCA0-062%3.6
2-4San Francisco (158.3)WCCA0-042%-2.4
2-9Gonzaga (10.2)WCCH0-010%-15.1
2-11Portland (123.5)WCCH0-052%0.7
2-16Saint Mary's (15.8)WCCA0-06%-18.9
2-18Pepperdine (195.3)WCCH0-072%7.1
2-23San Francisco (158.3)WCCH0-063%3.9
2-25Pacific (171.2)WCCA0-041%-2.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola Marymount's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Loyola Marymount's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Loyola Marymount.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Loyola MarymountWCC28.9826.4123.0842.89-15.61-3.76
PortlandWCC0.004.6450.0053.800.000.35
Saint Mary'sWCC0.934.60100.0089.290.933.61
PepperdineWCC1.674.5742.8632.91-0.24-1.56
PacificWCC0.934.5742.8645.99-0.13-0.37
San FranciscoWCC0.004.5785.7154.020.000.37
BYUWCC0.004.5462.5066.360.001.49
GonzagaWCC0.004.54100.0091.850.003.80
Santa ClaraWCC0.004.5433.3332.05-0.00-1.63
San DiegoWCC0.004.5437.5031.37-0.00-1.69
Portland St.BSky16.672.0350.0045.150.00-0.20
NevadaMWC16.672.0075.0071.038.330.84
Boise St.MWC0.002.0042.8656.06-0.000.24
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.001.9128.5742.84-0.00-0.27
Colorado St.MWC0.001.8871.4360.080.000.38
Southern UtahBSky0.001.850.0025.14-0.00-0.92
UT ArlingtonSB0.001.8562.5067.790.000.66
Morgan St.MEAC0.001.8214.2939.33-0.00-0.39
ConnecticutAmer16.671.7920.0037.45-10.00-0.45
Incarnate WordSlnd0.001.7925.0044.25-0.00-0.21
San Jose St.MWC0.000.3950.0041.490.00-0.07
Cal St. FullertonBW1.670.3128.5733.77-0.71-0.10
UC IrvineBW0.000.2850.0054.070.000.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.2760.0069.120.000.10
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.250.0022.01-0.00-0.14
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.2512.5023.75-0.00-0.13
Fresno St.MWC0.000.2466.6740.030.00-0.05
Utah St.MWC0.000.2442.8650.06-0.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.2216.6739.20-0.00-0.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.220.0033.85-0.00-0.07
UNLVMWC0.000.2262.5043.800.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.2162.5058.450.000.04
UCLAP120.000.21100.0086.690.000.16
WyomingMWC0.000.2166.6754.050.000.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.1912.5029.15-0.00-0.08
UC RiversideBW0.000.190.0032.52-0.00-0.06
Weber St.BSky0.000.1816.6749.65-0.00-0.00
USCP120.000.18100.0076.680.000.10
MontanaBSky0.000.1625.0048.10-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1671.4355.160.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.160.0038.27-0.00-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.000.1557.1448.500.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1525.0038.83-0.00-0.03
ColoradoP120.000.1575.0062.620.000.04
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1585.7174.990.000.07
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1440.0054.54-0.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.1342.8637.34-0.00-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1375.0061.490.000.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.1333.3354.32-0.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.1342.8641.51-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.1350.0045.970.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.1366.6758.060.000.02
TroySB0.000.1342.8636.19-0.00-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1271.4363.930.000.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.120.0017.13-0.00-0.08
DaytonA100.000.1271.4373.490.000.06
ArizonaP120.000.1275.0068.370.000.04
South DakotaSum0.000.1250.0046.020.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1266.6757.300.000.02
LamarSlnd0.000.1050.0041.540.00-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.1050.0062.380.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.1075.0055.500.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.1050.0052.760.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.090.0034.27-0.00-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.670.0922.2221.23-0.93-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0914.2932.19-0.00-0.03
HoustonAmer0.000.0985.7178.280.000.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0027.12-0.00-0.04
Little RockSB0.000.0966.6761.330.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0975.0070.180.000.04
North TexasCUSA0.000.0933.3330.44-0.00-0.04
SMUAmer0.000.0966.6766.860.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0942.8660.54-0.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0020.75-0.00-0.05
Saint LouisA100.000.0928.5723.78-0.00-0.05
Oregon St.P120.930.0925.0022.93-0.46-0.05
WashingtonP120.000.0957.1452.370.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.070.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0750.0058.040.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0725.0055.33-0.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0742.8650.12-0.000.00
TexasB120.000.0757.1438.680.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0750.0050.450.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0612.5037.99-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0022.58-0.00-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0642.8645.44-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0675.0059.790.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0018.64-0.00-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.47-0.00-0.02
WagnerNEC1.390.0633.3354.47-0.460.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0616.6729.80-0.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0650.0064.350.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0671.4356.250.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0687.5082.360.000.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0677.7849.900.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0616.6729.81-0.00-0.02
OregonP121.390.0675.0072.250.690.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0614.2931.28-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.000.0662.5056.520.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0671.4357.970.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0657.1433.230.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0671.4370.390.000.03
TempleAmer0.000.0675.0064.920.000.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.390.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0650.0059.920.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0685.7176.240.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0637.5035.09-0.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0642.8653.19-0.000.00
BradleyMVC0.930.0642.8627.96-0.13-0.03
OaklandHorz0.930.0685.7177.150.660.03
AkronMAC0.000.0671.4368.980.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0625.0047.82-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0687.5075.240.000.03
Green BayHorz0.000.0642.8651.95-0.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0671.4368.070.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0625.0030.23-0.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0671.4358.600.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.23-0.00-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0628.5736.95-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0048.810.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0637.5033.74-0.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0640.0041.12-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0685.7170.060.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0650.0046.240.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.000.0642.8628.98-0.00-0.03
IllinoisB100.000.0662.5050.710.000.00
IonaMAAC1.850.0657.1464.030.260.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0625.0063.27-0.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0412.5030.39-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0471.4355.820.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.040.0017.61-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0440.0041.93-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0420.0041.92-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0475.0071.470.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.0487.5062.040.000.01
Arizona St.P121.670.0362.5040.460.42-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.56-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0337.5037.03-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.180.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0328.5741.52-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0355.5646.970.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0342.8639.20-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0314.2942.67-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0342.8646.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0316.6744.34-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0034.40-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0035.95-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0357.1471.520.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0366.6746.420.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0385.7145.370.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0385.7166.190.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0375.0066.370.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.450.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0342.8647.11-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat1.390.0342.8654.90-0.200.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6761.550.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0342.8644.71-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0357.1471.940.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0350.0041.310.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0355.5647.890.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0342.8643.60-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0350.0060.620.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0337.5051.64-0.000.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0387.5059.310.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0387.5068.020.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0375.0048.030.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0311.1148.19-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0312.5034.79-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA1.390.0350.0044.400.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0387.5068.610.000.01
Oklahoma St.B121.390.0371.4354.310.600.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0333.3327.06-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0316.6739.49-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0371.4366.700.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0350.0066.300.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0312.5023.93-0.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0350.0038.050.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.03-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0375.0086.710.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.930.0333.3352.21-0.310.00