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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Loyola Marymount

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:153.0
Current RPI:153
Expected SOS:97
Current SOS:97
Current Record:14-15
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:163
Expected OOC SOS:186



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15153.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola Marymount.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Nevada (29.0)MWCA79-64L0%0.0
11-17Connecticut (118.0)AmerH62-65L0%0.0
11-25Portland St. (268.0)BSkyH78-62W100%0.0
12-5Boise St. (72.0)MWCH79-80L0%0.0
12-8Southern Utah (341.0)BSkyH75-68W100%0.0
12-10Cal St. Northridge (312.0)BWA68-69W100%0.0
12-17Incarnate Word (303.0)SlndH91-90W100%0.0
12-19Colorado St. (66.0)MWCA66-69W100%0.0
12-22UT Arlington (45.0)SBH77-80L0%0.0
12-26Morgan St. (326.0)MEACH70-49W100%0.0
12-29Saint Mary's (17.0)WCCH60-72L0%0.0
12-31BYU (65.0)WCCH76-81L0%0.0
1-5Pepperdine (245.0)WCCA71-70L0%0.0
1-7Santa Clara (126.0)WCCH66-56W100%0.0
1-12Gonzaga (8.0)WCCA93-55L0%0.0
1-14Portland (233.0)WCCA78-79W100%0.0
1-19San Diego (205.0)WCCH62-69L0%0.0
1-21Santa Clara (126.0)WCCA64-63L0%0.0
1-26Pacific (223.0)WCCH79-73W100%0.0
1-28BYU (65.0)WCCA85-77L0%0.0
2-2San Diego (205.0)WCCA53-72W100%0.0
2-4San Francisco (94.0)WCCA74-64L0%0.0
2-9Gonzaga (8.0)WCCH60-90L0%0.0
2-11Portland (233.0)WCCH66-60W100%0.0
2-16Saint Mary's (17.0)WCCA81-48L0%0.0
2-18Pepperdine (245.0)WCCH82-61W100%0.0
2-23San Francisco (94.0)WCCH53-51W100%0.0
2-25Pacific (223.0)WCCA66-67W100%0.0
3-4BYU (65.0)WCCN89-81L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola Marymount's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Loyola Marymount's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Loyola Marymount.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Loyola MarymountWCC26.4126.4145.2645.26-2.51-2.51
BYUWCC6.116.1163.3363.331.631.63
Saint Mary'sWCC4.624.6286.6786.673.393.39
PortlandWCC4.554.5531.0331.03-1.72-1.72
GonzagaWCC4.544.5496.7796.774.254.25
PacificWCC4.514.5133.3333.33-1.50-1.50
Santa ClaraWCC4.494.4950.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC4.464.4662.0762.071.081.08
PepperdineWCC4.454.4525.0025.00-2.23-2.23
San DiegoWCC4.434.4339.2939.29-0.95-0.95
Portland St.BSky1.951.9544.4444.44-0.22-0.22
NevadaMWC1.951.9581.8281.821.241.24
Boise St.MWC1.861.8660.7160.710.400.40
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.841.8437.0437.04-0.48-0.48
Colorado St.MWC1.831.8367.7467.740.650.65
Southern UtahBSky1.791.7913.3313.33-1.31-1.31
UT ArlingtonSB1.781.7873.3373.330.830.83
Morgan St.MEAC1.751.7546.4346.43-0.13-0.13
ConnecticutAmer1.721.7245.1645.16-0.17-0.17
Incarnate WordSlnd1.721.7233.3333.33-0.57-0.57
San Diego St.MWC0.360.3656.2556.250.040.04
San Jose St.MWC0.360.3642.8642.86-0.05-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.320.3251.7251.720.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.270.2743.3343.33-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.260.2625.8125.81-0.13-0.13
UC IrvineBW0.250.2557.5857.580.040.04
Fresno St.MWC0.240.2460.0060.000.050.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.230.2337.9337.93-0.05-0.05
Weber St.BSky0.220.2256.6756.670.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.200.2018.5218.52-0.13-0.13
Northern ColoradoBSky0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
UCLAP120.200.2087.8887.880.150.15
Idaho St.BSky0.200.2013.3313.33-0.14-0.14
UNLVMWC0.200.2034.3834.38-0.06-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
USCP120.190.1972.7372.730.090.09
WyomingMWC0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.170.1722.2222.22-0.10-0.10
Air ForceMWC0.160.1632.2632.26-0.06-0.06
ColoradoP120.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
North DakotaBSky0.150.1567.8667.860.050.05
MontanaBSky0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.1423.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.130.1337.0437.04-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.120.1236.0036.00-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.120.1260.7160.710.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Montana St.BSky0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
StanfordP120.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.110.1158.8258.820.020.02
HoustonAmer0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
DaytonA100.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1167.8667.860.040.04
South DakotaSum0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Saint LouisA100.110.1136.3636.36-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.110.1188.2488.240.080.08
LamarSlnd0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
MemphisAmer0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
IdahoBSky0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Little RockSB0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.060.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.083.333.33-0.08-0.08
SMUAmer0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Oregon St.P120.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
South FloridaAmer0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
IllinoisB100.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.0878.5778.570.040.04
WashingtonP120.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
TexasB120.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
WagnerNEC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0681.2581.250.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00