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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Loyola Marymount

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:268.0
Current RPI:268
Expected SOS:98
Current SOS:98
Current Record:7-23
Expected Record:7-23
Current Conf Record:4-15
Expected Conf Record:4-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-5
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:253
Expected OOC SOS:95



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-23268.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola Marymount.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Southeast Missouri St. (289.0)OVCH76-66W100%0.0
11-15Boise St. (40.0)MWCH69-77L0%0.0
11-20Arizona St. (102.0)P12A68-44L0%0.0
11-26UC Riverside (234.0)BWH66-62W100%0.0
11-29UC Irvine (88.0)BWH72-80L0%0.0
12-3USC (207.0)P12A77-61L0%0.0
12-13Northern Arizona (166.0)BSkyA71-69L0%0.0
12-17Stanford (59.0)P12A67-58L0%0.0
12-22Wichita St. (17.0)MVCN80-53L0%0.0
12-23Nebraska (158.0)B10N50-42L0%0.0
12-25DePaul (197.0)BEN72-69W100%0.0
12-29Pepperdine (134.0)WCCH56-69L0%0.0
1-1Pacific (241.0)WCCH63-77L0%0.0
1-3Saint Mary's (68.0)WCCH63-72L0%0.0
1-8San Diego (157.0)WCCA59-50L0%0.0
1-10BYU (36.0)WCCA85-72L0%0.0
1-15Portland (149.0)WCCH80-68W100%0.0
1-17Gonzaga (8.0)WCCH55-72L0%0.0
1-22Santa Clara (202.0)WCCA65-62L0%0.0
1-24San Francisco (181.0)WCCA69-70W100%0.0
1-29Saint Mary's (68.0)WCCA68-54L0%0.0
1-31Pacific (241.0)WCCA71-76W100%0.0
2-5San Diego (157.0)WCCH70-61W100%0.0
2-7BYU (36.0)WCCH68-87L0%0.0
2-12Gonzaga (8.0)WCCA80-51L0%0.0
2-14Portland (149.0)WCCA66-63L0%0.0
2-19San Francisco (181.0)WCCH45-72L0%0.0
2-21Santa Clara (202.0)WCCH63-70L0%0.0
2-28Pepperdine (134.0)WCCA65-49L0%0.0
3-6Santa Clara (202.0)WCCN85-54L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola Marymount's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Loyola Marymount's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Loyola Marymount.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Loyola MarymountWCC26.4326.4321.8321.83-14.89-14.89
Santa ClaraWCC5.935.9333.3333.33-1.98-1.98
BYUWCC4.494.4970.0070.001.801.80
GonzagaWCC4.444.4493.5593.553.873.87
PepperdineWCC4.404.4053.5753.570.310.31
Saint Mary'sWCC4.404.4066.6766.671.471.47
San FranciscoWCC4.384.3841.3841.38-0.76-0.76
San DiegoWCC4.384.3846.4346.43-0.31-0.31
PortlandWCC4.384.3850.0050.000.000.00
PacificWCC4.344.3430.7730.77-1.67-1.67
UC IrvineBW1.871.8760.0060.000.370.37
StanfordP121.851.8558.0658.060.300.30
Arizona St.P121.831.8351.6151.610.060.06
Boise St.MWC1.781.7873.3373.330.830.83
USCP121.771.7735.4835.48-0.51-0.51
UC RiversideBW1.751.7542.8642.86-0.25-0.25
Northern ArizonaBSky1.721.7254.8454.840.170.17
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.721.7240.7440.74-0.32-0.32
DePaulBE1.691.6938.7138.71-0.38-0.38
NebraskaB101.671.6740.0040.00-0.33-0.33
Wichita St.MVC1.671.6786.6786.671.221.22
Cal PolyBW0.360.3640.7440.74-0.07-0.07
HawaiiBW0.300.3060.6160.610.060.06
UCLAP120.290.2960.6160.610.060.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.280.2824.1424.14-0.14-0.14
UtahP120.260.2674.1974.190.130.13
San Jose St.MWC0.250.250.000.00-0.25-0.25
Washington St.P120.240.2441.9441.94-0.04-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.220.2243.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.220.2248.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.220.2256.6756.670.030.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.210.2162.0762.070.050.05
Oregon St.P120.210.2153.3353.330.010.01
ColoradoP120.210.2146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.210.2191.1891.180.170.17
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.190.1956.6756.670.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.190.1975.7675.760.100.10
WashingtonP120.190.1951.6151.610.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.170.1722.5822.58-0.09-0.09
Long Beach St.BW0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.160.1642.4242.42-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
St. John'sBE0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
OregonP120.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
CaliforniaP120.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
DrakeMVC0.140.1426.6726.67-0.06-0.06
XavierBE0.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
MontanaBSky0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
Murray St.OVC0.120.1283.3383.330.080.08
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.1238.4638.46-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1181.2581.250.070.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Idaho St.BSky0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
UC DavisBW0.110.1179.3179.310.070.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.110.1170.0070.000.040.04
IowaB100.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Weber St.BSky0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Air ForceMWC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
WisconsinB100.080.0891.1891.180.070.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
MarylandB100.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
New MexicoMWC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
PurdueB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Seton HallBE0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
MississippiSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
HowardMEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
RichmondA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0590.9190.910.040.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
LehighPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0374.0774.070.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
WoffordSC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02