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Through games of Feb 4, 2016.


Loyola Marymount

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:228.8
Current RPI:208
Expected SOS:207
Current SOS:177
Current Record:9-13
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:3-9
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-5
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:168
Expected OOC SOS:311



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-13174.00.05%
14-14187.72.64%
13-15203.614.77%
12-16219.831.76%
11-17236.531.27%
10-18253.516.70%
9-19269.62.80%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola Marymount.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Cal St. Fullerton (280.8)BWH79-74W100%0.0
11-15UC Irvine (68.3)BWA77-53L0%0.0
11-19Colorado St. (188.6)MWCA83-75L0%0.0
11-25Cal St. Northridge (274.5)BWH82-80W100%0.0
11-28Southeast Missouri St. (329.8)OVCA60-73W100%0.0
12-2Oregon St. (65.1)P12A79-70L0%0.0
12-6UC Riverside (249.3)BWH77-76W100%0.0
12-9Boise St. (79.2)MWCA67-66L0%0.0
12-12Cal St. Fullerton (280.8)BWA70-82W100%0.0
12-18Jacksonville St. (300.4)OVCH77-60W100%0.0
12-21Portland (249.8)WCCA87-60L0%0.0
12-23Gonzaga (50.2)WCCA85-62L0%0.0
1-2Pepperdine (122.2)WCCA68-65L0%0.0
1-7Saint Mary's (39.1)WCCH48-73L0%0.0
1-9Pacific (262.7)WCCH58-60L0%0.0
1-14San Francisco (232.4)WCCA83-87W100%0.0
1-16Santa Clara (255.4)WCCA66-76W100%0.0
1-21BYU (52.5)WCCH80-91L0%0.0
1-23San Diego (290.5)WCCH67-63W100%0.0
1-28BYU (52.5)WCCA87-62L0%0.0
1-30San Diego (290.5)WCCA77-69L0%0.0
2-4Gonzaga (50.2)WCCH63-92L0%0.0
2-6Portland (249.8)WCCH0-055%1.3
2-11Pacific (262.7)WCCA0-036%-3.8
2-13Saint Mary's (39.1)WCCA0-02%-22.3
2-18Santa Clara (255.4)WCCH0-062%3.2
2-20San Francisco (232.4)WCCH0-058%2.1
2-27Pepperdine (122.2)WCCH0-035%-4.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola Marymount's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Loyola Marymount's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Loyola Marymount.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Loyola MarymountWCC26.6126.5243.8841.49-3.26-4.51
PortlandWCC3.254.7234.7833.96-0.99-1.51
San DiegoWCC5.264.6831.5827.63-1.94-2.09
PacificWCC3.184.6716.6719.83-2.12-2.82
Santa ClaraWCC3.104.6433.3333.30-1.03-1.55
San FranciscoWCC3.114.6455.0051.010.310.09
PepperdineWCC3.164.6157.1456.200.450.57
Saint Mary'sWCC3.064.6184.2184.132.093.14
BYUWCC5.084.5966.6771.111.691.94
GonzagaWCC5.184.5875.0074.362.592.23
Cal St. FullertonBW5.023.9841.1835.47-0.89-1.16
UC IrvineBW2.722.2771.4370.691.170.94
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2.762.2331.5829.68-1.02-0.91
UC RiversideBW2.782.1750.0045.440.00-0.20
Boise St.MWC2.431.9465.0064.810.730.57
Colorado St.MWC2.371.9147.3746.93-0.12-0.12
Oregon St.P122.391.8557.8952.900.380.11
Jacksonville St.OVC2.331.8227.2726.48-1.06-0.86
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.321.8215.0016.94-1.63-1.20
UC DavisBW0.660.5436.8434.21-0.17-0.17
Long Beach St.BW0.370.4742.8651.32-0.050.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.270.4140.0049.72-0.05-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.330.3831.5836.17-0.12-0.11
NevadaMWC0.340.3557.8956.100.050.04
HawaiiBW0.170.3283.3380.130.110.19
ArizonaP120.380.2978.2677.230.210.16
Fresno St.MWC0.220.2660.0057.300.040.04
San Jose St.MWC0.330.2525.0022.59-0.16-0.14
UCLAP120.270.2256.5253.330.040.01
MontanaBSky0.260.2255.5660.910.030.05
ColoradoP120.260.2172.7366.980.120.07
Utah St.MWC0.320.2147.3749.37-0.02-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.280.1971.4370.810.120.08
Murray St.OVC0.160.1647.6252.91-0.010.01
WashingtonP120.220.1668.1862.170.080.04
USCP120.220.1678.2673.090.130.07
Portland St.BSky0.220.1633.3339.26-0.07-0.03
DenverSum0.210.1652.1748.790.01-0.00
BelmontOVC0.200.1569.5770.030.080.06
UNLVMWC0.160.1552.3857.440.010.02
New MexicoMWC0.150.1563.6464.080.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.110.1350.0053.080.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.180.1315.7916.40-0.12-0.09
CaliforniaP120.110.1363.6461.820.030.03
StanfordP120.110.1352.6347.730.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.110.1344.4448.53-0.01-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.160.1335.0035.36-0.05-0.04
RiceCUSA0.160.1325.0028.19-0.08-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.160.1273.9176.040.080.06
OregonP120.160.1281.8278.220.100.07
UtahP120.210.1272.7368.550.100.05
WyomingMWC0.110.1240.9140.45-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.150.1233.3333.55-0.05-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.150.1268.4271.820.050.05
Austin PeayOVC0.100.1034.7837.55-0.03-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.1038.1042.99-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1018.1822.84-0.07-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1045.4547.97-0.01-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1065.0067.520.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0950.0046.870.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.100.0952.3854.240.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.0965.0060.810.030.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0966.6765.400.020.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.0910.0014.87-0.08-0.07
Washington St.P120.100.0938.1033.46-0.02-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.0975.0073.480.050.04
Air ForceMWC0.060.0942.8635.05-0.01-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.160.095.2610.18-0.14-0.07
Idaho St.BSky0.100.0942.1142.70-0.02-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.100.0931.8226.63-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.160.0930.0029.98-0.06-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.150.0952.6352.150.010.00
Northern IowaMVC0.160.0952.1754.150.010.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0757.1457.880.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0745.0043.24-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.120.0745.0042.81-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.0635.2944.50-0.03-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0661.9058.220.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0615.7922.52-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.050.0622.7324.84-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.110.0614.2918.59-0.08-0.04
DuquesneA100.050.0666.6758.770.020.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.065.267.23-0.05-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0657.8961.910.010.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.0640.9139.23-0.02-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.110.0635.0036.61-0.03-0.02
KansasB120.110.0680.9577.010.070.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.0621.0529.17-0.06-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0621.7424.61-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.100.0672.7372.460.050.03
LipscombASun0.050.0621.7427.63-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0661.9062.050.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.0641.6746.85-0.02-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0690.4885.540.000.04
TennesseeSEC0.100.0650.0048.260.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.100.0681.8281.000.070.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0633.3334.18-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.100.0638.8942.86-0.02-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.0617.3921.76-0.06-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0355.0048.830.01-0.00
DaytonA100.050.0385.7181.210.040.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0359.0958.570.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0363.6456.050.010.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0340.9138.03-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0330.0032.46-0.02-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0315.0015.65-0.04-0.02
Arizona St.P120.060.0352.1750.250.000.00
IonaMAAC0.060.0357.1457.700.010.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0366.6760.120.020.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0338.1037.49-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0339.1339.48-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0363.6459.930.020.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0380.9583.030.040.02
Wright St.Horz0.060.0354.5555.190.010.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0357.1452.310.010.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0326.3233.83-0.02-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.038.709.78-0.04-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0385.7184.560.040.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.557.91-0.04-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0347.6247.86-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.060.0359.0955.560.010.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0382.6181.380.040.02
OaklandHorz0.060.0366.6767.310.020.01
SamfordSC0.050.0340.9143.36-0.01-0.00
UABCUSA0.050.0381.8278.320.030.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0323.8125.04-0.03-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.060.0350.0050.040.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0352.1747.260.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0365.0063.360.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0355.5650.840.010.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0333.3332.69-0.02-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0363.6468.200.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0338.1047.48-0.01-0.00
OhioMAC0.050.0360.0057.940.010.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0347.3750.50-0.000.00
UCFAmer0.050.0355.0047.190.01-0.00